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Brokerage and South Korean News Lead

August 31, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started the week off with a small gap higher in all 3 major indices. After the open, the SPY and QQQ saw a strong rally into late morning and then sideways trading the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the DIA was much more tentative, trading in waves to the side all day long. This left us with a strong bullish candle in the QQQ, a decent bullish candle in the SPY, with just a bit of upper wick, and a gap-up black candle in the DIA. On the day, SPY gained 0.44% (to a new all-time high close), QQQ gained 1.12% (to a new all-time high close), and DIA lost 0.14%. The VXX fell a percent to 25.59 and T2122 dropped just outside of the overbought territory to 76.62. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.28% and Oil (WTI) gained about half of a percent to $69.06/barrel.

During the day, SEC Chairman Gensler told Barron’s that the banning of “payment for order flow” is a possibility. This caused HOOD to tank, closing down 6.89% after being down over 10% at one point. However, this has broader implications for traders as most brokerages are offering zero or no commissions now on the back of this practice of selling order flow to marketmakers rather than charging higher commissions. Gensler told Barron’s that this practice is an inherent conflict of interest (not necessarily giving brokerage clients the best price at the moment of order) and he feels it hurts both traders and markets. No timetable was mentioned, but this interview came after Friday’s announcement that the SEC would step up inquiries into the “gamification” of trading. So, it implies a major change in SEC governance. In other brokerage news, PYPL is exploring ways to allow users to invest in stocks. While likely not a threat to the major brokers, the likes of HOOD, WeBull, SOFI, FUTU, etc.

In tech stock news, South Korea has passed legislation (180-8) that prohibits AAPL and GOOG from requiring App developers to use only their own payment processing systems. South Korea is a major smartphone market. However, the much larger picture would be the adoption of such measures in Europe (likely) and the US (unknown probability). This will mean that developers can avoid paying AAPL and GOOG a 30% commission on all sales. If we assume the App developers will still need to have payments processed somewhere (at a cost), the move will likely mean improved profitability (but not by 30%) for developers and a major hit to AAPL and GOOG app store revenues.

GS said Monday that they expect 750k evictions by the end of the year out of the 3.5 million US households that are behind on rent. In related news, Bloomberg also reports that analyst firm RealPage has found that rents are increasing by an average of 17% relative to what the previous tenant paid. Obviously, these two developments will have major impacts on REITs and other property-related businesses.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. South Korea (+1.75%), Hong Kong (+1.33%), and Japan (+1.08%) led the gains. Singapore (-1.52%) and Shenzhen (-0.66%) were the only red in the region as Chinese Factory data showed a slowing growth of activity in August. In Europe, markets are also mostly green so far today. The FTSE (-0.05%) is lagging, but the DAX (+0.71%), and CAC (+0.28%) are typical of the rest of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA is implying +0.01%, the SPY implying +0.02%, and the QQQ implying +0.06%. The Dollar is trading a bit lower, while 10-year bond yields and Oil are up slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to Chicago PMI (9:45 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DBI, NTES, and DAO before the open. Then after the close, PVH reports.

Markets may well be in “wait and see” mode as we draw nearer to more data dumps later in the week (especially the August Payrolls number on Friday). However, we are sitting at all-time highs in s strong bullish trend on fairly strong breadth. We are a bit extended from the T-line in the QQQ (rally leader), but there has been no hint of bear strength yet. So, don’t bet on trend failure, but be prepared if a pullback or rest starts to materialize.

Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Also, remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. Simply put, the market maintains trend far more often than it reverses trends. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OPCH, CAN, EBON, BTBT, ARRY, RIDE, FLDM, NAIL, ABT, DLPN, PDD, RIG, TSLA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Ida and Delta Now, Aug Payrolls Ahead

August 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly higher Friday and started to drift higher. However, Fed Chair Powell’s speech was met with joy and a strong rally between 10 and 10:30 am, before drifting slowly higher until the last 15 minutes of the day. This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that closed near the highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.89% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.97% (to a new all-time high close). The VXX fell over 5% to 25.85 and T2122 jumped deep into the overbought territory at 91.51. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.305% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $68.68/ barrel.

Hurricane Ida came ashore early Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane. It made landfall West of New Orleans. Prior to the landfall, Ida had shut down 91% of Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Having reached the US, Ida will now shut down a sizeable chunk of US oil refining and chemical production that follows the Mississippi River to the North and extends West to the Texas state line (Chemical Alley). However, the Oil production, refining, and chemical processing plants should be largely back online within days, pending local damage and power outages.

In chip shortage news, TSM has announced they will be increasing the price of their products by 10-20% depending on the wafer generation as of the end of this year. Computers will see the lower end of the price rise, but low-end electronics (like cars) will see the high end of the increases. There is very little doubt that Intel, Global Foundries (recently filed to go public), QCOM, AVGO, and others will follow suit. The underlying reasons are the huge investments being made into additional production capacity, modest input cost increases, and most importantly the tremendous pricing power the industry has had amidst skyrocketing demand over the last 18 months. This is likely to lead to rising prices on every product that contains electronics.

In other virus-related news, new US infections continue to rise. However, analysts continue to predict we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 39,665,515 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 654,689. The averages are now at 156,819 new cases and 993 new deaths per day. Amidst that backdrop, Israel (at an all-time high peak in new cases), which tends to front-run US trends, has now approved and is pushing booster vaccinations in an effort to forestall another national shutdown. Along those lines, over the weekend both Dr. Fauci (NIH) and the White House gave support to the idea of boosters for all American citizens while continuing to push for vaccinations of any kind. (Only 53% of US Adults are fully vaccinated.)

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board. Only Shenzhen (-0.09%) showed any red at all. Meanwhile, Indonesia (+1.71%), India (+1.35%), and Taiwan (+1.08%) led the gainers. In Europe, markets are a bit more mixed, but still lean to the green side on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.32%), DAX (+0.22%), and CAC (+0.18%) are typical of the gainers with outliers like Greece (+1.16%) and Norway (-0.29%) at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a+0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.13% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to July Pending Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CTLT, LI, and VEON before the open. Then after the close, NDSN, STNE, and ZM report.

With Jackson Hole behind us, markets are likely to look toward the data dumps later in the week (and especially the August Payrolls Report on Friday). It is possible volatility picks up here, but most of all, remember that we are sitting at all-time highs coming into a month’s end. (Granted it is not a quarter-end, but still more funds will be reporting the period’s results than say a given week. And that can lead to some profit-taking and Window Dressing prior to Wednesday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WKHS, NKLA, F, KRE, BB, BFLY, RIDE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Chair Powell’s Speech Tops Agenda

August 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Thursday and sold off in a couple of waves during the day as Fed members spoke to close on the lows. While the move was larger than the previous 3 days of the week, the move was about the same size as every move last week. So, it was by no means a selloff. This action left us with a Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA (which failed the 8ema, but just black-body candles that did not even test the 8ema in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.58%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.64%. The VXX rose 4% to 27.25 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 40.16. 10-year bond yields gained slightly to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) fell three-quarters of a percent to $67.85/barrel.

After the close Thursday, WDAY, MRVL, and GPS beat on both lines. HPQ missed on revenue, but beat on earnings. PTON beat on revenue and missed very significantly on earnings (-$1.05/share vs. -$0.44/share estimated). PTON also announced they will be slashing the price of their less expensive bike by hundreds of dollars starting immediately. (The Bike+ debuted at $2,495 was reduced twice to $1,895 and will now sell for $1,495.) In legal news, GILD won an appeal on the $1.2 billion judgment BMY had won related to a cancer treatment that encourages the patient’s own immune system to fight the disease. The judge said the original ruling was not based on substantial evidence.

The big news on the day is expected to be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets (and especially media analysts) are expecting to get strong guidance from Powell on when and how the FOMC will begin to taper bond-buying. However, there is a major risk of disappointment in the speech with uncertainty over the current and future effect of the Delta variant on one side and a seemingly surging economy on the other.

As an example of Powell’s problem, just yesterday the Q2 GDP we revised upward a tenth of a percent to 6.6%, jobless claims came in holding at pandemic era lows, and two Fed members told the press they were worried about inflation. However, the US also reported 170,000 new covid cases, almost 12,000 new hospitalizations, and 1,215 deaths. More companies also announced pushing back the “return to the office” and that they are requiring employees to be vaccinated. So, the market wants concrete direction, but Powell needs to say we will taper, without locking himself into hard timelines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the green side on modest moves. Taiwan (+0.84%), Shanghai (+0.59%), and Thailand (+0.58%) led the gainers. Singapore (-0.92%), Japan (-0.36%) and Indonesia (-0.28%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mixed and flat but lean slightly to the downside ahead of the headliner speeches at Jackson Hole. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.11%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly green open ahead of data and the Fed Chair Speech. The DIA is implying a +0.24% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.34% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes July PCE, Jul Trade Balance, July Personal Spending, and July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium resumes at 9 am and Fed Chair Powell does his presentation at 10 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to BIG before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled after the close.

With Powell’s speech beginning at 10 am, I expect very light action early (unless Powell’s speech gets leaked early). With that said, I also expect considerable volatility when the speech sinks in. If you are not already hedged or lighter in your positions, it is probably time to be very nimble. Trade carefully and remember this is Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle.

Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you cannot control. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. And if you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, BTBT, CARR, BB, BTU, EBAY, WKHS, GSMG, NURO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims, GDP, and Jackson Hole

August 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened just on the green side of flat Wednesday. That was followed by a long drift sideways with a slight bullish lean for the rest of the day. This left us with Spinning Top or Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.21% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.13%, and QQQ gained 0.11% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX fell 2.28% to 26.10 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 82.05. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.344% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.14% to $68.31/barrel.

During the day, WDC spiked higher on reports of a big tech merger. The Wall Street Journal reported that WDC is close to a deal with Japanese memory maker Kioxia (a one-time spin-off from Toshiba). This reaction is quite odd, in that WDC would be the purchasing company and yet was up over 15% at one point in the day (before closing up 7.8%). This comes after a proposed Kioxia buyout by MU fell through last month. The WDC deal will reportedly value Kioxia at $20 billion and will be paid for in WDC stock. Kioxia is the inventor of NAND flash memory technology widely used in most computer memory and solid-state storage.

After the close, the White House held a cybersecurity summit, aimed at preventing hacks and ransomware attacks such as the Colonial Pipeline incident, came to an end. GOOG announced they will spend $10 billion over 5 years to strengthen their security and pledged to train 100,000 IT people on security best practices. Not to be outdone, MSFT said they will spend $20 billion over 5 years to deliver more advanced security tools (software) and pledged to spend $150 million to help government agencies upgrade security. IBM pledged to train 150,000 people in cybersecurity skills over 3 years and announced a data storage infrastructure solution that is more secure than current architectures. AMZN said it is planning to give users of its cloud services free multi-factor authentication devices. Many other firms gave non-specific support to security and the attendees agreed to create a new industry standard for security.

In miscellaneous stock news, one day after PFE received approval, MRNA has now filed with the FDA requesting its Covid-19 vaccine get full approval (versus the current “Emergency Use” approval). Elsewhere, the CEO of TOL told CNBC that recent lumber price declines will save the company $40,000 per house and help offset other inflation pressures in the second half of the year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red as South Korea hiked interest rates. Shenzhen (-1.92%), Shanghai (-1.09%), and Hong Kong (-1.08%) led to the downside. Most of the green was barely green, with the notable exception of Malaysia (+1.02%). In Europe, stocks are showing modest red moves everywhere except for 2 minor exchanges. The FTSE (-0.35%), DAX (-0.63%), and CAC (-0.29%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, but red open. The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.17% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields and the Dollar are also flat, but Oil is down nine-tenths of a percent to $67.73 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium also begins at 9 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FLWS, ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, SJM, MOMO, SAFM, XPEV, and YSG before the open. Then after the close, DELL, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, PTON, VMW, and WDAY report.

As Jackson Hole gets underway, markets are likely to watch and wait until they get a better read on what the Fed will do and when. So, it is quite possible we are going to stay in “pause mode” at least until Fed Chair Powell’s presentation. At that point, we may see Mr. Market make a decision (and move). However, volatility around each of the many presentations is possible. So, this would be a great time to be nimble, hedged, or with plenty of dry powder (cash).

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, CUBI, CG, FAST, NAVI, TSCO, RCL, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

A Pause Before We Get to Jackson Hole?

August 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets essentially opened very slightly higher Tuesday and then ground sideways with a slight bullish lean until about 2:30 pm. At that point, we saw profit-taking right into the close. This left us with tiny, Gap-Up Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day SPY closed up 0.15% (to another new all-time high close), DIA closed up 0.08%, and QQQ closed up 0.31% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX was flat at 26.71 and T2122 rose but remains in the midrange at 70.97. 10-year bond yields moved higher to 1.299% and Oil (WTI) gained 3% to $67.66/barrel.

After the close, the House voted to approve a procedural measure that advances both the $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure bill. The move comes after Democratic infighting was resolved and will allow Democrats to approve the massive spending bills without any Republican votes. While still a long way off, this is another major step toward both the Infrastructure bill (great for steel, telecom, and other industries) and the Democratic budget agenda (increased social “safety net” and education spending), which may hurt industries like insurance and drug companies as well as tax increases on business and high-income.

30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 3.03%. This was the first drop in rates in the last 3 weeks. However, mortgage demand remains light, seeing only a 1% increase in refinance applications and a 3% increase in new loan applications from last week.

JNJ reported that its Covid Booster shot is showing a promising immune response in early trials this morning. Specifically, trial participants are showing a nine-fold increase in antibodies 4 weeks after the booster shot. In other virus-related news, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 38,968,925 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 648,161. The averages are now at 148,755 new cases and 873 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but heavily to the green side. Taiwan (+1.35%), Malaysia (+1.06%), and Thailand (+0.85%) led to the upside. The only red was minor and came from Japan (-0.03%) and Hong Kong (-0.13%). In Europe, we also see mixed markets, but on more modest moves at this hour. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (-0.16%), and CAC (+0.16%) are typical of the mix across the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.02% open at this hour. Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are slightly higher at 1.309% and Oil is up a third of a percent in early trading, even as the Dollar shows a little strength against other currencies.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DKS, LX, QH, RY, and VIOT before the open. Then after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, SPLK, ULTA, and WSM report.

As traders begin preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium (Central Banker Summit, which is virtual this year), the pause may continue again today. Traders will focus on figuring out how “tapering” will be couched in the discussions and then handicapping how the market will react. While July Durable Goods and Current Oil Inventories new could theoretically move markets, the more likely scenario is that we drift as traders prepare. That’s our cue to be prepared as well. What will you need to do to your portfolio if we see a taper tantrum pullback? How about if we see an “everything’s hunky-dory” rally? Plan ahead so that you aren’t running around with your hair on fire if one of those does come to pass Thursday or Friday.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SWCH, NLOK, SBUX, DKNG, CARR, PENN, AMC, GME, CAN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Good Retail Earnings This Morning

August 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Monday and then kept rallying until about 1 pm. However, the rest of the day saw some persistent profit-taking that lasted into the close. This left us with strong white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the say, SPY gained 0.87% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ gained 1.50% (to a new all-time high close). The VXX fell 3.4% to 26.81 and T2122 remained in the mid-range at 55.65. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.257% and Oil (WTI) spiked higher 5.3% to $65.44/barrel as commodities across the board showed very strong gains on a very weak dollar.

The FDA gave “Full Approval” (as opposed to “Emergency Use Approval”) to the PFE Covid vaccine on Monday. President Biden then made a plea to those unvaccinated Americans, saying “Please get vaccinated now.” He went on to stress that the vaccine has now proven to be 91% effective at preventing infection and once vaccinated, there is a very low statistical probability of having a severe infection. As of Sunday, only 51% of American adults were fully vaccinated. In somewhat related news, DIS reached a deal with unions to require all employees be vaccinated.

In earnings news, the retail sector continues to impress as BBY posted a beat on revenue and 58% obliteration of earnings estimates. BBY stock was up 6% in pre-market trading on the news. AAP also beat on both lines, but PDD missed on revenue from the retail sector this morning. In other sectors, MDT and BNS beat on both lines as well. In fact, for the earnings season, 90% of the S&P500 have reported an average earnings gain of 95% year over year.

Related to the virus, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this Delta surge. The totals rose to 38,814,596 confirmed cases and deaths are now at a total of 646,667. Remember that these numbers are now under-reported as many (mostly Southern) states have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is increasing at an average of 147,693 new cases per day. Deaths, which lag, are also still rising and are now at 846 per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board as Chinese tech stocks rallied hard. Hong Kong (+2.46%) and Malaysia (+2.03%) were standouts. However, the major exchanges all saw about a 1% gain. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.16%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (-0.39%) are typical of the region at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to modest gaps higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +0.14% open, the SPY implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.26% open at this hour. The dollar and 10-year bond yields are flat in early trading, but Oil (WTI) is showing another 1.8% gain to $66.84/barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to July New Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AAP, BNS, BBY, HTHT, MDT, and PDD before the open. Then after the close, VNET, HEI, INTU, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN report.

In Asia, it seems the worries over Chinese Tech regulations and Covid have eased (China reported no cases for a second straight day after their draconian regional crackdown). Europe seems to also be in a better mood as the PFE-BNTX vaccine approval in the US eased some concerns and Fed tapering expectations have been calmed by recent statements. With breadth (T2101) up off its lows and back into the highs of the period since the Spring rally and stocks at all-time highs again, the bulls are looking for some follow-through this morning.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPT, ARRY, DKNG, MS, AMRN, SWCH, GNOG You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

PMI Data and When Fed Will Taper in Focus

August 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened relatively flat on Friday. However, the dip-buyers showed up and led a choppy rally all day long. This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that all closed very near their highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.77%, DIA gained 0.48%, and QQQ gained 1.04%. The VXX fell 7.5% to 27.75 and T2122 jumped back up into the mid-range at 41.61. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 1.257% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.26% to $62.25. For the week, all 3 major indices gave us long-legged, indecisive, Doji-like candles with the SPY down 0.60%, DIA down 1.19%, and QQQ lost 0.30%.

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Summit coming up at the end of this week. The recent talk (mostly from non-voting FOMC members in public events) has all been centered around starting the bond-buying taper soon. That’s assumed to be the main point of discussion among the global central bankers at the end of the week. However, it was interesting to note that on Friday, Fed hawk Kaplan (not a voter) who has been calling for quicker bond-buying taper changed his tune slightly. In a Friday interview, Kaplan told Fox News he may rethink his position on calling for a quick taper if it continues to look like the Delta variant spread is slowing economic growth. He went on to say “it’s in our interest to slow the spread and right now we’re in a negative trend.”

Bitcoin hit $50,000 on Sunday night, which was a 3-month high. This comes after a massive selloff in June and early July. The all-time high of $64,000 was reached in April prior to the selloff. Among the drivers of the recent rally was that COIN announced it would buy $500 million in crypto for its balance sheet and also allocate 10% of company profits to go into cryptocurrencies in future quarters.

In miscellaneous stock news, TGT announced they will triple the number of “shop in a shop” DIS stores they host in their stores. TGT will add 100 DIS shops in existing TGT stores before the holiday season. This seems to be a counter move to M announcing a few days ago that it will be adding Toys-R-Us “shop-in-a-shop stores. Both seem to be hopeful signs for the brick-and-mortar retail space and perhaps for the economy in general.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost exclusively green. Only Singapore (-0.49%) was in the red, while Taiwan (+2.45%), Shenzhen (+1.98%), and Japan (+1.78%) led the gainers. In Europe, PMI data out of the EU remains strong (59.5) for July. This has led to green across the board at mid-day in the region. The FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.25%), and CAC (+0.93%) lead the way as usual, with most of the continent’s exchanges falling somewhere between the FTSE and DAX. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest gap-higher. The SPY is implying a +0.43% open, the DIA implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.31% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.275% and Oil is trading 3% higher in early trading as the dollar is trading down significantly this morning.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and July Existing Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to JD before the open. Then after the close, PANW reports.

Good global economic data should give the bulls a little tailwind early today. However, US PMI data for July comes out at 9:45 am, and with few earnings or other data expected, that is likely to drive the tune for the remainder of the day. Breadth picked up in the rally the last few days. However, this is still far from what could be called a broad-based bull charge. So, continue to trade carefully and focus on the trend in your trading horizon.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIOT, CAN, MRVL, SWCH, MARA, DLTR, EBAY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Chinese Law and Chip Shortage Aid Bears

August 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Despite better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims, markets gapped down hard at the open Thursday. This took us to or near the 50sma in all 3 major indices. However, the bulls stepped in immediately and rallied stocks into the highs just lunch. From there we saw another down wave and rally as the volatility took us on a final down leg at the close. This all left us with large-body, white candles with upper wicks amid small overall moves. On the day, SPY gained 0.17%, DIA lost 0.18%, and QQQ gained 0.48%. The VXX gained 3.2% to 30.00 and T2122 dropped deeper into the oversold territory at 5.71. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.242% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.15% to $64.05/barrel.

Thursday night, TSLA CEO Elon Musk announced plans to build a “Humanoid Robot” he dubbed the “Tesla Bot.” The stated goal of the robots will be to eliminate the need for humans to do “dangerous, repetitive, and boring tasks.” As with most of Musk’s “inventions,” robots have been a widely-known concept for centuries and an actual product for decades. However, I’m sure the TSLA robot will be “world changing.” In either case, the news and related tweets are giving TSLA stock a little boost in premarket trading.

China has passed a major “personal information protection law,” somewhat similar to the laws in place in the EU since 2018 and the recent AAPL vs FB “consent changes” for iPhone users. This set of regulations lays out strict guidelines related to the collection, storage, and use of personal information by companies. While the law has passed on Friday and goes into effect on November 1, the final draft has not been made public yet. This is all part of the recent sweeping regulation of the technology sector, in particular, focused on phone apps and websites.

Japan’s massive auto companies were all down sharply following the Thursday evening announcement by Toyota that it is slashing global production for September by 40%. The reason for the cuts is a lack of chips and no more room to store partially completed vehicles. Toyota did stress that it still believes it can hit its annuals production and sales targets. Toyota was down 4.09%, Nissan dropped 7.25%, and Honda fell 4.84% on the day. This news may have hurt US automakers Thursday and is not likely to give them any help today. So, keep an eye on F, GM, STLA, and major parts suppliers.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red again. Hong Kong (-1.84%), Shenzhen (-1.61%), and Shanghai (-1.10%) led the region lower. In fact, the Hong Kong Hang Seng moved into the Bear territory, down more than 20% from the February highs. In Europe, markets are red nearly across the board in the early afternoon. The FTSE (-0.24%), DAX (-0.48%), and CAC (-0.52%) are typical of the continent mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.47% open, the SPY implying a -0.47% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.30% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are also lower to 1.233% and Oil (WTI) off eight-tenths of a percent in early trading with the dollar showing a little early strength.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 11 am) and Options Expiration (after the close). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DE and FL before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

With markets looking at the first appreciable weekly loss in a month, the bears are continuing to draw strength from the fear of Fed bond tapering and the Covid-19 resurgence. As mentioned above, today is also options expiration Friday. So, expect a little volatility and perhaps some pinning in the afternoon. Just remember that we are sitting at or near the 50sma (potential support) and are only 2% off the all-time highs. So, don’t go all-in either direction just yet, especially in front of the weekend news cycle. Trade carefully.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control. It is good trading rules and discipline that separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them. Lastly, remember it’s Friday…and Friday is payday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GTBC, EBAY, CHRS, HUT, X, NUE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bears Find Strength in 2021 Taper Fears

August 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets just ground sideways Wednesday…right up until the July FOMC minutes came out. From that point onward the bears just hammered the bulls as stocks went out on the lows. This left us with nasty black candles with upper wicks and short-term downtrends in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.07%, DIA lost 1.04%, and QQQ lost 0.96%. The VXX gained almost 7% to 29.05 and T2122 dropped well into the oversold territory at 8.47. 10-year bond yields held steady at 1.265% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 2.6% to $64.83/barrel.

The cause of that sharp afternoon selloff was the July Fed Minutes. As had been signaled by recent Fed member statements (but apparently not believed), the FOMC has had discussions about tapering its bond-buying program this year. In fact, most of the participants noted that if the economy continues to evolve as expected, they’d support tapering bond purchases before year-end. Not today, but perhaps announcing a timetable at the September meeting and then slowly beginning the taper in October.

Strong Retail earnings continue to be the theme of the week. So far this morning, M absolutely crushed their report (beating by $668 million dollars on revenue and coming in 11 times higher than the average estimate on earnings, $1.29 vs $0.18 expected). KSS also more than doubled the average analyst estimate on earnings and raised guidance for the full year. Finally, while TPR beat, it was a pedestrian beat by comparison to the other two retail names reporting this morning.

In other retail-related news, CNBC reports that AMZN is planning to open large retail locations, starting in CA and OH. The stores will be similar to department stores but on the small side of size, similar to a KSS store. Meanwhile, in addition to their earnings, M also reported that they have partnered with “Toys R Us” and will offer that brand via “shop within a shop” areas in 400 of the M stores starting in 2022.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red again as even more Chinese regulations were announced. Taiwan (-2.68%), Hong Kong (-2.13%), and South Korea (-1.93%) led the parade, but losses were widespread and significant. Only New Zealand (+1.87%) bucked the trend as its national 3-day lockdown continues. In Europe, markets are down sharply across the board at this hour. The FTSE (-1.98%), DAX (-1.75%), and CAC (-2.44%) are typical for the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to gap-down follow-through of yesterday afternoon’s selloff. The DIA is implying a -0.91% open, the SPY implying a -0.83% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.69% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are also falling, now at 1.23% and Oil (WTI) is off almost 4% to $62.98/barrel in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BILI, BJ, EL, KSS, M, PFGC, and TPR before the open. Then after the close, AMAT, FTCH, and ROST report.

Fear of Fed tapering, combined with slowing economic data and the Covid-19 resurgence are giving the bears plenty of ammunition. This might not have been helped when HOOD warned of a slowdown in trading volume. So, the long-awaited pullback is underway with the 50sma as the destination (possible support?) this morning. Beware of volatility, remember that the longer-term trend is still bullish, and remember that we are only 2.5% off the all-time highs as well as bear moves tend to happen faster than bull moves. So, trade carefully.

Today is the kind of day where it pays to remember two things. Cash is a position. And you don’t HAVE to trade every day. Always manage your existing trades before chasing new ones. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control. Trading rules and discipline are what separates long-term success and failure in trading. So, trade with the trend until the trend is broken. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next trade. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by managing stops. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

July Fed Minutes and Housing Data Today

August 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

US markets gapped down two-thirds to three-fourths of a percent at the open Tuesday and then ground sideways until late morning. The bears took us a leg further down into the speech of Fed Chair Powell, but then the bulls stepped in and gave us a slow rally back up into the close. This left us will indecisive Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices, none of which fell outside the recent trading range. So, we have an indecisive pullback on greater than average volume. The VXX rose 3% to 27.20 and T2122 dropped down just outside the oversold territory at 21.86. 10-year bond yields held steady at 1.263% and Oil (WTI) fell three-quarters of a percent to $66.78/barrel.

In economic news, July Retail Sales came in far below expectations before the open yesterday. This was the proximate cause for the gap down open. That said, WMT and HD beat on revenue Tuesday while TGT and LOW both beat on revenue already today. So, the slowdown appears to be happening at “Mom and Pop stores” rather than at the big-box chains. Beyond Retail, July Industrial Production almost doubled forecasts, and June Business Inventories came in just as expected.

As mentioned, markets were relieved when Fed Chair Powell spoke Tuesday. In his speech, he did not touch on either the economy or Fed monetary policy. Instead, he focused on Covid-19 and its impact on US students, saying the challenges will mold them into an “extraordinary generation.” During the Q-A portion of the event, he did decry the impact of Covid on economic activity and the pace of vaccinations slowing, as well as talking about how digital currencies are interesting and becoming a more important question that the Fed is considering.

Following up on the Retail theme from yesterday, it appears that big beats on both lines by TGT and LOW are resulting in both premarket volatility and punishment. TGT in particular reported blow-out numbers but was down well over 5% in premarket trading. (The cause of this divergence is reportedly fear of slowing sales growth and Covid resurgence hurting next quarter’s numbers.) Meanwhile, after HD’s post-beat smackdown (losing over 4% yesterday), this morning GS has raised their target for the company above the rest of the analysts covering the name.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green as the region rebounded a bit from the Tuesday news of Chinese Internet Antitrust regulations. Shanghai (+1.11), Taiwan (+0.99%), and Shenzhen (+0.72%) led the gainers, with typical gains more like half of a percent. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest trading. The “Big 3” exchanges are all modestly red, but the bulk of the rest of the region are in the green. The FTSE is down 0.29%, DAX down 0.11%, and CAC down 0.34% at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed and flat. The DIA is implying a -0.20% open, the SPY implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.10% open. 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.275% and Oil is up almost a percent to $67.23/barrel in early trading on a flat US dollar.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes July Building Permits and July Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Minutes (2 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADI, EAT, LOW, TGT, TJX, VIPS, WB, and ZIM before the open. Then after the close, BBWI, CSCO, YY, KEYS, NVDA, SPTN, and SNPS report.

Covid continues to make news as GS reinstituted mask mandates in the office, FB pushed out their return to the office date again, and the TSA extended travel mask mandates through mid-January. This is adding to market fears at the highs. However, we are not yet seeing any panic as we did in March 2020. Earnings continue to be stellar, but mortgage rates hit their highest level in a month (3.06% for a 30-year fixed) as both refinance and new mortgage demand dropped this week. All that said, despite the fear, yesterday’s candles in the major indices show that the bulls are simply not ready to roll over. All 3 major indices closed in the top third of their range, having driven price up off the lows following the gap-down. So, don’t mistake volatility for a changed trend just yet.

Trading rules and discipline are what separates long-term success and failure in trading. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control. Always manage your existing trades before chasing new ones. Trade with the trend until the trend is broken. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next trade. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by managing stops. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ALKS, LSI, FOLD, FAS, WBA, NAVI, NVAX, AMRN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching