All Eyes On The Fed and Chairman Powell

The large-caps opened slightly higher and the QQQ gapped up three-quarters of a percent on Tuesday.  Then after a little morning follow-through, stocks sold off all afternoon.  This gave us indecisive black candles (especially in the SPY and the QQQ gap-up Doji).  However, the bullish trend remains unbroken.  On the day, SPY lost 0.13%, DIA lost 0.37%, and QQQ gained 0.55%.  The VXX was flat at 13.16 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) pulled back, but remains in the overbought territory at 83.33.  110-year bond yields rose again to 1.623% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $64.68/barrel.

After the close, UBER granted their UK drivers worker status (having lost their legal battle up through the UK Supreme Court claiming they were contractors).  This is widely expected to cause follow-on actions throughout Europe and perhaps at some point in the US.  In other business news, Mortgage refinance demand fell 39% this week as rates continue to rise.  For example, the benchmark 10-year bond yield rose to a 13-month high overnight of 1.65%.

The ongoing FOMC meeting is drawing much more attention than Fed meetings have for quite some time.  This is backed up by a BAC survey of investors that found inflation is now the top market fear, replacing the virus for the first time in a year.  Nobody is expecting a rate or even much of a statement wording change at this meeting.  However, with interest rates rising and massive stimulus just starting to hit the economy, many analysts are saying Chair Powell really has to thread the needle in his afternoon press conference.  He has to acknowledge that things look better, but that there really is too much uncertainty to change policy for a long time to come, even as we see a ripping stock market, rising bond rates, and are expecting huge GDP gains in Q1 and Q2.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,231,550 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 549,367 deaths.  The number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 55,395 new cases per day.  Deaths fell slightly also to 1,228 per day.  So, we are trending in a good direction overall.  On the other hand, 15 states have reported at least a 10% increase in new cases this week versus last week.  So, on average we are doing well, but some places are still in danger.  Still, DE, OH, and MT all announced they are joining the states expanding vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16…which is also great news.   

Globally, the numbers rose to 121,370,336 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,684,236 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have risen again to 438,942 per day.  Mortality, which lags, also rose, now at 8,631 new deaths per day.  Following in the path of Germany, France’s PM told press that his country is also experiencing a third wave, mostly of the UK variant.  In South American, Brazil reached another new high in daily deaths of 2,841.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time leaned negative.  Shenzhen (+1.22%) stood out on the green side while South Korea (-0.64%), Taiwan (-0.60%), and Australia (-0.47%) were more typical.  In Europe, stocks have started their day mostly lower.  The FTSE (-0.29%), DAX (+0.09%), and CAC (-0.13%) are flat and seem to be trying to buck the trend, but most of the smaller exchanges are further into the red.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed but lean to the red.  The DIA is implying a flat +0.01% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open, and the QQQ looking to gap down, implying a -0.74% open at this point.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Feb. Building Permits and Feb. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, and Fed Interest Rate Decision all at 2 pm as well as the Fed Press Conf. at 2:30 pm.  Major earnings reports before the open include ARCO, CTAS, LE, and PDD.  Then after the close, FIVE, WSM, and ZTO report.

All eyes will be on the Fed this afternoon. While no rate change decision is expected, Fed the interest rate forecast, statement, and especially Chair Powell's press conference need to walk a tight rope for bulls to stay in control. Expect volatility, but also possibly some "wait and see" in front of the 2 pm announcements.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don't chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a fortune-teller. Don't try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WFC, BAC, PFE, RIG, AAPL, WRK, MRNA. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

FOMC Meets and Biden Eyes Tax Changes

Markets opened slightly higher Monday and then rode the roller-coaster all day long.  A late-day rally into the close took all 3 major indices out near their highs on reopening optimism.  This left the SPY and DIA at new all-time high closes.  On the day, QQQ was up 1.07%, the SPY was up 0.61%, DIA was up 0.51%.  The VXX was down sharply to 13.16 and T2122 fell slightly but remains deep in the overbought territory at 97.11.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.604% and Oil (WTI) was off one-third of a percent to $65.37/barrel.

The FOMC meeting starts again Tuesday.  While no policy or statement changes are expected at this meeting, markets will be pouring over the new Fed Interest Rate Forecasts.  Traders will also be hoping for better forward guidance on future changes to Fed policy when Chair Powell does the post-statement press conference. This comes amid the backdrop of rising interest rates and current expectations of a booming economy as vaccinations reach further into the population and the economy and public opens more and more every day.

In other economic news, Bloomberg reports that President Biden is working on a tax plan that will raise taxes on individuals making over $400,000 and corporations, but is not looking at the “wealth tax” as proposed by Senators Sanders and Warren. This had been hinted at on Sunday when Treasury Sec. Yellen said policies to address the deficit were on the horizon.  This would be the first tax hike since 1993.  In another plan being discussed are changes in capital gains rates on individuals making more than $1 million, taxes on stock dividends, and even replacing fuel taxes with a mileage-based fee for road use (which would make sure electric vehicle owners pair their share).  The timeline that is being discussed seems to be focused on the fall and apparently, leaks report the taxes will not be made retroactive as other tax changes have been in the past.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 30,138,586 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 548,013 deaths.  As mentioned, the number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 55,423 new cases per day.  Deaths were flat at 1,282 per day.  In other good news, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services reported that nursing home case numbers plunged more (83%) than the general public (58%) in the 6 weeks from Dec. 20 to Feb. 14.  CT and MS also both announced their states will open vaccinations to all adults as of April 1.  This makes 8 states that have announced this expansion about the same time.  In addition, PA will ease restrictions on restaurants and businesses on April 4, bringing the total to 13 states that have eased restrictions.  

Globally, the numbers rose to 120,846,995 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,674,086 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 428,861 per day.  Mortality, which lags, was flat, now at 8,482 new deaths per day.  Monday saw major news on the vaccine front in Europe as German, France, Italy, and Spain joining 11 other European countries in suspending use of the AZN vaccine (over blood-clotting fears).  The EU and WHO continue to say there is no real evidence to support those suspensions and urged countries to keep vaccinating.  However, the damage is done to public confidence and the UK is claiming it is a nationalist attack based on Brexit since the AZN vaccine came from England.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned positive on generally modest moves.  Shenzhen +0.91%) and Shanghai (+0.78%) led the gains today while Indonesia (-0.23%) and India (-0.11%) were typical of the losses.  In Europe, markets are leaning strongly to the green side at this point in their day, but also on modest moves.  The FTSE (+0.60%), DAX (+0.68%), and CAC (+0.24%) are typical of the rest of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat open.  The DIA is implying a -0.10% open, the SPY implying a +0.03% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.45% open at this point in the morning.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Feb. Retail Sales, and Feb. Import and Export Indexes (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Jan. Business Inventories (10 am).  Major earnings reports before the open include DBI and JBL.  Then after the close, ADV, CAL, and LEN report.

With little economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will remain on bond yields and the Fed meeting that starts today as traders look for reassurance on the inflation front. A bullish trend (at the all-time highs) remains in place, but the large-caps seem to be pushing against some resistance at this level, for the moment. Again, the general good mood about recovery and the $1,400 direct payments seem to be providing a tailwind for bulls. However, as mentioned, the market may wait on more direction from the Fed before making any big moves.

Be on the lookout for volatility whenever markets are looking indecisive. As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don't chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a mystic. So, don't try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HPQ, DVN, NLSN, AVY, HON, NKLA. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Eyes On Inflation Ahead of Fed

The SPY and QQQ gapped lower, while the DIA gapped up a bit on Friday.  After that, all 3 major indices put in a mild lackadaisical rally the rest of the day. This left the QQQ with an indecisive candle (Spinning Top type) while both large-cap indices printed large-body white candles.  The DIA ended at another all-time high close and so did the SPY (although to a much smaller extent and still within Thursday’s candle wick).  On the day, SPY was up 0.13%, DIA up 0.92%, and QQQ down 0.81%.  The VXX fell almost 2% to 13.95 and T2122 is almost pegged at 98.94, deep int the overbought territory.  After the premarket jump, 10-year bond yields were stable during the session and ended up at 1.625% (spiked higher versus the Thursday close) and Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent to $65.60/barrel.

In good news, some Americans reported they had already received their $1,400 direct payment on Friday.  This came just 24hr after the bill was signed into law.  In other good news, the CDC reported the US has surpassed 101 million vaccinations, is now administering 2.2 million vaccinations per day, and hopes to hit 3 million per day by the end of the month.  That blistering pace is sure to help the country get back to normal sooner and may have helped the bulls with their Friday rally, even against the tide of rising bond yields.

On Sunday, Treasury Sec. Yellen made the rounds telling various media that while the relief package stimulus will raise prices in the short-term, that the effect won’t last.  She went on to say that true inflation risks remain “small and manageable.”  Regardless of the accuracy of those words, this was exactly what markets had been hoping to hear.  Still, 10-year bond yield remains above 1.6% in overnight trading, which is sure to temper market comfort with Yellen’s words. This is all prelude to the Fed meeting later in the week.

Related to the virus, US infections are slowly falling from the plateau level. The totals have risen to 30,081,657 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 547,234 deaths. However, the number of new cases fell again to an average of 54,373 cases per day.  Deaths also fell again to 1,290 per day.  Late Friday, MI announced they will open vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16 on April 5.  Then Sunday, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said that guidelines will be much more liberal by July Fourth if US cases keep dropping. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 120,486,601 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,666,564 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 420,462 per day.  Mortality, which lags, continued to tick down slightly, now at 8,443 new deaths per day.  Italy went into lockdown again over the weekend in all the major population centers.  They also pre-announced that the country will impose a 3-day lockdown for Easter weekend in a couple of weeks.  Germany also declared that a third wave was now underway in that country.  This came as more European countries have suspended the use of the AZN vaccine due to blood-clotting concerns.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in mostly small moves.  Shenzhen (-2.71%) and Shanghai (-0.96%) were outliers to the downside while India (+1.33%) was an outlier to the upside.  However, more typical was Japan (+0.17%) and South Korea (-0.28%).  In Europe, markets are mostly in the green at this point in their day.  The FTSE (+0.34%), DAX (+0.17%), and CAC (+0.36%) are typical of the rest of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly green open after pulling back from overnight highs.  The SIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.23% open at this point in the morning.

The only major economic news on Monday is NY Empire State Fed Mfg. Index (7:30 am).  There are no major earnings reports before the open.  However, after the close, QFIN, and BEKE report.

With no economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will be on bond yields and the coming Fed meeting as traders look for reassurance on the inflation front. A bullish trend (at the all-time highs in the large-caps) seems to have the momentum for now. A general good mood as the $1,400 direct payments have started hitting accounts is likely to be a boon for retail names and possibly the market in general as CNBC reports a large percentage of the public intends to put the money to work in the market.

As always, follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don't chase the moves you missed. Another trade will be along any minute. Also, keep in mind that you are not a mystic. So, don't try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MVIS, BB, NOK, JWN, LUV, CPB, FCX, AG, LUMN, F, WMT. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Overnight Bond Yields Bring Inflation Fear

Markets gapped higher and rallied in the morning before slowly melting a bit lower over the entire afternoon.  This left all 3 major indices with white candles the left large upper wicks.  However, it also worth noting that the SPY, DIA, and even the small-cap IWM all closed at all-time high closes. The QQQ, while it had the strongest percentage gain, is still about 6% below its own all-time high close.  On the day, DIA gained 0.62%, SPY gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 2.30%.  The VXX fell 2.5 percent to 14.22 and the T2122 creeped even higher, deep into overbought territory at 97.12.  10-year bond yields rose slightly again to 1.53% and Oil (WTI) rose over 2.6% to $66.13/barrel.

Better than expected Weekly Jobless Claims and a lack of strong response in bond yields led to the gap-up open.  Later in the day, the President signed the Relief Plan into law, but that was largely baked-in and did not drive stocks either way.  What may be an economic driver is that the Treasury Dept. says that the first $1,400 direct payments may start hitting bank accounts as soon as this weekend (2.5 weeks faster than had been previously suggested).

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,925,902 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 543,721 deaths.  The number of new cases fell again to an average of 56,927 new cases per day.  Deaths also fell again to 1,403 per day.  In his prime-time speech, President Biden said he is ordering expanded vaccine eligibility, telling states to open up the shots to every American by May 1. He expects this to lead to a more normal summer.  Specifically, he said he believes the country is now on track to see widespread small gatherings by July 4th.

Globally, the numbers rose to 119,223,964 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,643,905 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again to 412,517 per day.  Mortality, which lags, continued to tick down slowly, now at 8,456 new deaths per day.  After the close Thursday, NVAX announced that its UK Phase-3 trial has found its vaccine is over 96% effective against Covid.  The stock spiked 30% in after-hours trading on the news, but no word on phase-3 safety tests yet.  Elsewhere, a UK study confirmed what had been suspected, that the UK variant is 64% more deadly than the original strain of Covid.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Japan (+1.73%) and South Korea (+1.35%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-2.20%) and India (-0.95%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mostly red so far on Friday.  Losses are widespread, but there are a couple of smaller holdouts and the moves are mostly modest in size.  The FTSE (-0.01%) and CAC (-0.12%) are flat, but the DAX (-0.59%) is picking up a little momentum to the downside.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed, but negative open.  The QQQ is implying a -1.41% open while the SPY if looking at an open -0.43%, and the DIA looking at a flat +0.04% open.

The only major economic news on Friday are Feb PPI (8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports planned for the day.

With no economic news or earnings on tap, all eyes will be on bond yields as an indicator of potential inflation. Thursday's better-than-expected Jobless Claims number may have looked good yesterday, but this morning traders seem to be wondering if that augers inflation and a change in Fed policy. This is especially true as 10-year yields jumped again overnight to over 1.61%. In addition to this, we are heading into a Friday, extended to the upside. So, the bears have some weapons to work with today.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and remember another trade will be along any minute. You don't have to chase in either direction. So, do not try to predict reversals or chase moves, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. The tortoise beats the hare when it comes to trading.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AXP, TLRY, WW, TPR, ACB, CROX, MMM, BHC, CGC. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls looking to Gap Higher Again Today

Markets gapped up about two-thirds of a percent higher in the large-caps and above 1.4% in the QQQ.  After the gap-up, large caps ground sideways, while the QQQ sold off before starting its sideways grind about 11am.   This left us with a Gap-up Doji in the SPY, a large white bullish candle in the DIA (which closed at an all-time high close), and a large ugly black candle in the QQQ.  On the day, DIA gained 1.48%, Spy gained 0.58%, and QQQ lost 0.29%.  The VXX fell over a percent to 14.60 and T2122 rose deep into the overbought territory at 96.05.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 1.521% and Oil (WTI) rose a percent and a quarter to $64.80/barrel.

The economic news on the day was that there was enough demand for 10-year bonds at the government auction that yields pulled back slightly (higher bond prices mean lower bond yields).  However, the demand was not enough to drive bond yields down strongly.  All-in-all, this is an indication the bond market thinks inflation is in check for now.  In addition, the House passed the $1.9 trillion relief bill as expected.  So, we can expect consumers to have an injection to start spending as soon as the end of the month.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,862,124 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 542,191 deaths.  As mentioned, the number of new cases fell again to an average of 57,621 new cases per day.  Deaths, which have always lagged, was flat at 1,477 per day.  President Biden directed the DHS to purchase 100 million more doses of the JNJ vaccine on Wednesday.  In addition, more states eased restrictions on the day.  MD is allowing “high traffic” businesses like restaurants, gyms, and retail to open without restrictions.  CA announced they will be opening theme parks and outdoor stadiums as of April 1, although at reduced capacities.

Globally, the numbers rose to 118,739,789 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,634,166 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again slightly to 408,286 per day.  Mortality, which lags continued to tick down slowly, now at 8,517 new deaths per day.  In Central and Eastern Europe, the pandemic is picking up steam again.  Among the countries seeing a “third wave” are Poland, Czechia, Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Hungary.  Meanwhile Denmark has suspended use of the AZN vaccine after reports that a number of patients have developed blood clots after vaccination.  In Brazil, for the 2nd straight day, that country reported a new record number of covid deaths, this time almost 2,300.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the green.  China led the gainers with Shanghai and Shenzhen both posting +2.36%, Hong Kong up +1.65%, and Taiwan up +1.68%.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but leaning to the green side so far today on modest moves.  The FTSE (-0.27%) and DAX (-0.08%) are slightly lower, while the CAC (+0.16%) is slightly higher.  The smaller exchanges are leading to the upside such as Portugal (+1.44%) and Denmark (+1.20%) at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher.  The DIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a +0.67% open, and the QQQ implying a major gap up of +1.75% open.

The only major economic news on Thursday are Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and Jan JOLTS (10 am).  Major earnings reports before the open include GCO, JB, OPCH, PAE, PRTY, and REV.  Then after the close, ULTA and MTN both report.

It looks like traders are reversing the recent rotation into value names this morning. The Tech sector, which has been beaten up in the recent pullback, is looking to roar back on broad pre-market moves. There may also be general market optimism as leaks from the White House suggest President Biden will lay out a "path to normalization" in his speech tonight. Regardless of the reason, it looks like the bulls are chasing back toward new all-time highs across the board.

With that said, don't blindly chase the gaps you miss. Make sure you are not buying into a volatility move or fade of that gap. Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and remember another trade will be along any minute. So, control your FOMO. However, also do not try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Most importantly, keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key, not occasional home runs.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HON, VZ, HAL, KR, JPM, ATKR, K. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Relief Bill and Bond Auction Lead News

Bond yields pulled back overnight, leading to a gap strong gap higher by markets on Tuesday.  After this, markets rallied all morning (strongly in the QQQ and more slowly in the large-caps).  The afternoon saw more sideways action across all 3 major indices until a selloff the last 30 minutes of the day.  This left us with gains, but large high-side wicks, especially the large-caps.  On the day, QQQ +3.94% led the way higher, with SPY +1.40%, and DIA +0.11% flat on the day.  The VXX fell 4% to 14.77 and T2122 fell a bit, but remains in over-bought territory at 85.11.  10-year bond yields fell sharply, but remain elevated at 1.537% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 2% to $63.83/barrel.  It’s worth noting that after a brutal week or so, TSLA led the way in the Nasdaq at +19.64%.

Bloomberg reported an interesting fact on Tuesday afternoon.  Bear in mind, it’s quite possible to drown in a river that is “on average” half an inch deep.  In the article and story Bloomberg reported that analysts have looked at the S&P500 during periods of interest rate increases of at least 1.5%.  That had happened 13 times since 1962 and 10 of those 13 times the S&P500 also rose.  The average across all 13 instances was an S&P gain of 15%.  While rates have not currently risen 1.5%, they are headed that direction with many traders eyeing inflation with fear.  It’s worth considering.

The OECD released its economic forecast for 2021.  They are predicting global economic growth of 5.6% on the year, with +6.5% in the US, +7.8% in China, +12.6% in India, and +3.9% in the EU compared to last year.  In other economic news, US mortgage refinancing demand is down 43% from a year ago even as home purchase loan demand rose 75 for the week.  This comes as average loan rates rose three basis points on the week. In addition, the $1.9 trillion covid relief bill is expected to pass today and head to the President's desk for signing.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,801,506 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 540,574 deaths.  As mentioned, the number of new cases fell again to an average of 58,564 new cases per day.  Deaths, which have always lagged, was flat at 1,640 per day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 118,257,673 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,624,252 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again slightly to 404,475 per day.  Mortality, which lags continued to tick down slowly, now at 8,649 new deaths per day.  Mexico announced it should see results of the NVAX vaccine phase 3 trials in April.  Meanwhile, Brazil reported its highest daily death total of almost 2,000.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on more modest moves.  Australia (-0.84%) led the losses while smaller country exchanges led the gains.  China and Japan were flat on the day. In Europe, so far today markets are mostly green.  The FTSE (-0.18%) is down, but the DAX (+0.36%) and CAC (+0.68%) are more typical of the continent as of mid-day.  As of 7:45 am, US Futures are mixed and flat.  The QQQ is pointing to a -0.13% open, the SPY to a +0.11% open and the DIA to a +0.35% open.

The major economic news on Wednesday includes Feb. CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Feb. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  Major earnings reports before the open include CPB and UNFI.  Then after the close, BEST and ORCL both report. However, there is a US bond auction today and given the focus that has been placed on rising bond rates recently, this auction may be a larger driver of markets than a typical auction.

With the relief bill and reopening of the economy now priced into markets, inflation has been a key focus of traders. The handicapping seems to be that if rates rise too fast, even at low levels, markets fear the Fed going to a more hawkish stance. On the contrarian side, as I pointed out above, analysis shows that most of the time, as rates rise the market goes up. Either way, that seems to be the backdrop of market direction now. As always, it's not the news, but how the market reacts to the news this time that matters.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss.  Another trade will come along any minute. Don't try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key, not ocassinoal home runs.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SNDL, MSFT, MOMO, BCRX, AA, FTNT. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Yield Pullback Gives Bulls Energy

Markets gapped slightly higher Monday, but then diverged.  The DIA surged higher and then pulled back while being able to hold onto a white candle, leaving a high upper wick that could be seen as a shooting star if you squint.  This came largely on a pop by DIS on reports that their Disneyland resort is expected to reopen April 1.  At the same time, the SPY and especially the QQQ sold off hard to put in ugly black candles.  On the day, DIA was up 0.95%, SPY was down 0.50%, and QQQ was down a whopping 2.83% (closing down 11% from the Feb. 12 record high).  The VXX rose a little under 2% to 15.39 and T2122 drove higher, well into the overbought territory at 90.44.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.601% and oil (WTI) sold off over 2% to $64.74/barrel.

It was announced Monday that over the last week the US has averaged more than 1 million airline passengers per day.  This is the first time in a year the US has reached that level of travel.  This announcement came the same day that the CDC said it was okay for fully-vaccinated people (at least 2 weeks post-vaccination) to meet indoors without masks.  Small steps, but signs of progress as the country is vaccinating more than 2 million people per day.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,744,652 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 538,628 deaths.  The number of new cases fell again to an average of 58,798 new cases per day.  Deaths, which have always lagged, also fell again to 1,623 per day.  The Houston Health Dept. found a fairly large amount of the UK variant in their wastewater testing.  The House now plans to vote (pass) on the Covid Relief Bill on Wednesday since the Senate has not yet delivered the bill as passed in their chamber. In good news, lab studies are hinting that the PFE-BTNX vaccine can give protection against the Brazilian mutation.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  China led the losses again as Shenzhen (-2.84%) and Shanghai (-1.82%) were down sharply. However, Japan (+0.99%). Hong Kong (+0.81%), and India (+0.95%) led to the upside.  In Europe, markets are mostly green, with a couple smaller exchanges being just on the red side of flat so far today.  The FTSE (+0.67%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (+0.36%) are all positive, with a few of the smaller exchanges being major outliers to the upside, like Denmark (+2.39%) and Portugal (+2.32%).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are strongly higher across the board as bond yields pulled back (but remains above 1.5%) overnight.  The DIA is implying a +0.50% open, the SPY implying a +0.99% open, and the QQQ implying a +2.19% open.

The only major economic news on Tuesday is a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 6:05 pm).  Major earnings reports before the open include DKS, NAV, and THO.  Then after the close, ABM reports.

Softening bond yields overnight seem to be giving the bulls energy this morning. With no planned economic news and no real major earnings, that may be enough to help them run on the day. However, there is a lot of technical damage to overcome. So, while a "V reversal" could happen, it is more likely we will see some chop as bulls become more sure of the footing before running wild. So, be prepared for volatility and one-day directional moves.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss.  Another trade will come along any minute. Don't try to predict reversals, just follow the market. Keep taking your trade goals (profits) off the table when you can and stick to your discipline.  Consistency is the key, not ocassinoal home runs.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WBA, JETS, PM, JWN, UAL, DIS. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Relief Moves Ahead and Oil Moves Up

Markets gapped up a percent Friday on a major beat by the Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls (379k vs 182k est.) while unemployment dipped to 6.2%.  However, that gap was met with an immediate 2% selloff as fears of inflation resurfaced.  Then about 11:30am, the bulls stepped in to defend the lows as bond yields lessened a touch from their highs.  This led to a rally that lasted the rest of the day.  This left all 3 major indices with long-wicked White-bodied Hammer type candles.  On the day, the SPY gained 1.84%, the DIA gained 1.83%, and the QQQ gained 1.51%.  The VXX fell 7% to 15.12 and T2122 rose back up to just outside the overbought territory at 77.18.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.577% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 4% to $66.28.

The Democratic relief bill hit a few snags on Friday.  First, the President had to agree to a reduction from $400/week extended unemployment to $300/week.  Then a WV Senator held the bill hostage for several hours related to various unemployment aspects.  In the end, the Senate passed the bill Saturday in a 50-49 party-lines vote (one Republican was absent).  The bill is now expected to be passed (as amended by the Senate) in the House on Tuesday before being signed by President Biden.  The bill gives $1,400 direct checks to those making less than $80,000, extends unemployment at $300/week through September 6 and makes the first $10,200 of unemployment tax free for households making less than $150,000.  Even with Senate passage, futures are pointing lower.  So, apparently Mr. Market has already baked-in the stimulus and has moved on to other concerns.

After the close Friday, the SEC charged T and 3 of its executives with selectively sharing non-public information about the company’s investments to certain stock analysts.  In return, those analysts lowered their earnings estimates to just below the level the company then reported.  In other words, the SEC is claiming that T bought an “earnings beat” by giving insider data to certain specific analysts. In other market news, Pot stocks slumped for the second straight week last week.  This comes as the partisan nature of Washington is being seen by industry analysts as making it much harder to get national legalization (which many had expected from a Biden administration).  And in commodity news, OPEC+ members unexpectedly agreed to keep output restrictions in place.  This triggered another rally in oil which now has the price of oil above the balanced-budget required price of three large producing countries. This includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Oman, with UAE and Kuwait only about $3/barrel from their own break-even prices.  This was before Brent topped $70/barrel over the weekend on the OPEC+ restriction extension news.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,696,250 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 537,838 deaths.  As mentioned, the number of new cases fell again to an average of 59,777 new cases per day.  Deaths, which have always lagged, also fell again to 1,725 per day.  In good news, the US has now hit the milestone of doing over 2 million vaccinations per day.  However, Health officials again warned over the weekend that it is too soon to ease social distancing and especially mask mandates.

Globally, the numbers rose to 117,509,784 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,606,789 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases have up-ticked again by 10,000 over the weekend to 399,523 per day.  Mortality, which lags continued to tick down slowly, now at 8,715 new deaths per day. Among the places seeing a surge is Brazil, which reports it highest daily increase in new cases in over 2 months.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red Monday.  Shenzhen (-3.24%), Shanghai (-2.30%), and Hong Kong (-1.92%) led the move lower as China bore more most of the brunt of rising oil prices.  However, Singapore (+1.90%) gained on that news.  In Europe, stocks are green across the board so far today.  The DAX (+1.38%) and CAC (+0.88%) are typical of the continent, but the FTSE (+0.21%) lags.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed but generally down.  The QQQ is implying a -1.32% open, the SPY implying a -0.49% open, but the DIA remains flat, implying a -0.01% open.

There is no major economic news on Monday. There are also no major earnings reports before the open.  However, after the close, CASY and WISH report.

Inflation fears continue to grip Wall Street. Even clearing another major hurdle toward the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill has not helped the weekend mood. It looks as though Friday's strong day is being answered by the bears pushing back today. The trend remains to the downside, but remember the bulls have recently defended a level not far below. So, volatility is to be expected.

As always, don't try to predict, just follow the market. It's the big money that makes the market move and we just need to tag along for the swings. Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss.  Another trade will come along any minute. Keep booking your trade goals when you can and stick with your discipline. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DFS, DIS, F. XRT, MO, PFE, WMT, LUMN, NLSN, IVZ, MA. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Market Has Eyes On Employment Report

Markets started off with an up-and-down first hour Thursday, but then the bulls rallied us back to the highs.  Unfortunately, at noon, while he tried to be dovish, Fed Chair Powell indicated inflation lies ahead.  This caused a massive and steep selloff that lasted 2 hours.  Bulls were able to pull stocks up off the lows the last two hours, but much of the damage was done.  This left all 3 major indices with big, ugly black albeit indecisive (large-wicks) candles.  On the day, DIA lost 1.09%, SPY lost 1.23%, and QQQ lost 1.64% (turning negative for the year).  The VXX rose over 4% to 16.26 and T2122 fell back into the oversold territory at 12.50.  10-year bond yields spiked on the inflation fears and closed at 1.545% as oil gained almost 5% to $64.24.

The Senate agreed to 20 hours of debate on the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill.  However, that time does not start immediately as WI’s GOP Senator Johnson forced clerks to read aloud the entirety of the bill (which will take several hours of in-session time).  As of now, the bill is still on track to be passed and then the reconciled bill to be passed in both houses of Congress just in time for a Wed. signature by president Biden.  This is the deadline because the previous stimulus bill expires on that day.  This said, it will be a razor-thin margin in the Senate and the GOP may have other procedural tricks in addition to Democrats playing hold-out to get favors and pet projects from their own leadership.

Potomac Economics (an independent watchdog group) found that the TX ERCOT power grid left its emergency price of $9,000/kwh in place for 2-3 days longer than their own metrics show it should have been in place.  This means that ERCOT overbilled their customers (who passed the costs on to consumers) by as much as $16 billion during the winter freeze. This falls in line with the criticism of ERCOT's power company customers, the largest of which has already filed for bankruptcy because the financial cost (and two others defaulted on the charges and have been banned from the grid).  Since the CEO of the ERCOT grid has already been fired and most of the board has already resigned, it is unclear who will get blamed and how (if at all) things will be put right.  However, this is sure to become a political football as soon as the Texas Energy Commission meeting today as politicians try to keep the blame for not adhereing to decades of advice squarely on ERCOT and not of themselves.

Related to the virus, US infections are starting to plateau at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,526,086 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 533,636 deaths. As mentioned, the number of new cases fell slightly again to an average of 64,110 new cases per day.  Deaths, which have always lagged, also fell slightly to 1,854 per day.  Yet more states are ignoring health experts and loosening their pandemic restrictions.  This cuts across party lines as CT is among the latest.

Globally, the numbers rose to 116,322,289 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,583,546 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases has up-ticked again to 388,894 per day.  Mortality, which lags continued to tick down slowly, now at 8,853 new deaths per day. In Europe Germany says they are seeing a rise in cases and that 40% are of the UK strain.  Italy banned shipping vaccine out of their country and France is considering following suit.  In Asia, Japan extended the state of emergency in Tokyo for another 3 weeks.  In better news, Australia announced that it has enough AZN vaccine to cover them until domestic production can get ramped up.  

Overnight, Asian markets were slightly mixed, but mostly red in modest trading. Malaysia (+1.19%) and Thailand (+0.65%) led to the upside while Australian (-0.74%) and South Korea (-0.57%) led to the downside.  In Europe, we see a similar picture so far today.  The DAX (-0.59%) and CAC (-0.31%) lead to the downside while the FTSE (+0.38%) and some of the smaller exchanges lead on the green side.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open.  The DIA and SPY are just on the green side of flat, while the QQQ is just to the red side of break-even.  This comes as markets wait for the data dump at 8:30 am.

The major economic news for Friday includes Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Imports/Exports, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Jan. Trade Bal., and Feb Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), US Federal Budget (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Bostic at 3 pm).  Major earnings reports on the day include BIG and GLP before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

Inflation fear remains in charge on Wall Street. After the ADP miss earlier in the week, look for all eyes to be on the Feb. Employment Report as traders look for any sign of overheating in the economy. That said, the bulls did push us up off the lows late Thursday, so they may be looking to defend a potential support level below. Volatility seems to be the only thing assured in the market now. So, preparedness is the key here.

As always, don't try to predict, just follow the market. It's the big money that makes the market move and we just need to tag along for the swings. Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss.  Another trade will come along any minute. Keep booking your trade goals when you can and stick with your discipline.  And don't forget it's Friday...so take a paycheck off the board too.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for today. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Market Fears Inflation as Chart Gets Technical Damage

Markets made a small gap-down to open the session Wednesday.  However, the bears had the whip in hand all day as inflation fears loomed.  Bond yields rose over 8 basis points before settling back.  This left us with big, ugly black candles that have either are forming (DIA), have formed (SPY), or have broken out of (QQQ) a Dreaded-h pattern.  All 3 major indices closed on the lows.  On the day the DIA (buoyed by BA and JOM) lost 0.38%, the SPY lost 1.32%, and the QQQ lost 2.88%.  The VXX rose 4.28% and T2122 rose a bit to 39.01, but remains on the lower side of mid-range.  10-year bond yield closed up significantly to 1.469% and Oil (WTI) jumped 2.5% to $61.25/barrel.

After the close, DIS said they are closing 20% of their brick-and-mortar stores in order to shift more focus to e-commerce.  President Biden made a concession Wednesday by announcing his support for a reduction in the earnings cap qualification for direct payments.  The new number will be $80,000, down from the original $100,000.  This would disqualify about 12 million people.  This comes as the Senate began debating the bill on Wednesday evening.

AAPL is now facing a new antitrust probe in the UK.  This is based on app developer complaints about the Apple app store.  Specifically, the 30% fee and long approval process are being challenged. AMZN also made news in the UK, though for better reasons.  AMZN opened its first cashier-less retail shop, where customers just pick out their items and leave.  The system works on smartphones and an AMZN phone app.  An AMZN-backed food delivery service (Deliveroo) also chose London as the location of its first operation.

Related to the virus, US infections have plateaued (after almost 2 months of fall) at a level above the fall level after a month and a half of steep and steady decline in new cases. The totals have risen to 29,456,377 confirmed cases and deaths have now passed half a million at 531,652 deaths.  As mentioned, the number of new cases fell just slightly again to an average of 65,322 new cases per day.  Deaths, which have always lagged, also fell very slightly to 1,922 per day.  President Biden, the CDC, and Dr. Fauci (NIH) all derided states who are lifting restrictions now before the virus and its variants are fully beaten.  In the Senate, GOP members are planning “made for TV” testimony sessions that will likely delay a Senate vote until next Wednesday.

Globally, the numbers rose to 115,869,639 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,573,690 deaths.  The trends have been good, but we saw a significant uptick today.  The world’s average new cases has up-ticked again to 388,447 per day.  Mortality also ticked up again, now at 8,955 new deaths per day.  The WHO weighed in to say that after many weeks of falling, the number of cases is ticking up and that variants are to blame. In better news, the UK has now said that like the US, they will fast-track modified versions of vaccines to deal with variants rather than require the full 3-phase trial process.  In Germany, the governement finally approved the AZN vaccine for people over 65.  And in India, an Indian vaccine (Covaxin) has been found to be 81% effective in trials on almost 26,000 people, based on results from 43 patients.  (36 who had gotten the placebo contracted Covid while only 7 who had gotten the real vaccine also contracted Covid).

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Hong Kong (-2.15%), Japan (-2.13%), and Shenzhen (-2.90%) highlighted the losses, but the red was widespread and strong everywhere.  In Europe, markets are also in the read all across the continent so far today.  Smaller exchanges like Finland (-1.36%) and Belgium (-1.21%) are leading the losses.  However, the FTSE (-0.86%), DAX (-0.38%), and CAC (-0.22%) are all headed lower as well at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a very modestly red open.  The DIA is now implying a  -0.14% open, the SPY implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.23% open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q4 Productivity, and Q4 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), Jan. Factory Orders (10 am), and Fed Chair Powell speaks (noon).  Major earnings reports on the day include BJ, BURL, CNQ, CIEN, GMS, KR, MIK, SRLP, and TTC before the open.  Then after the close, AVGO, COO, COST, and GPS report.

Inflation fear still grips Wall Street. While pre-market futures are just shy of flat, we still have a shot of data coming before the open. Also, with Fed Chair Powell speaking again today (I don't know if he will be taking questions), markets may be waiting on more reassurance that inflations will be ignored the rest of the year. All we know for sure is that despite a pullback of late, we are still not far from all-time highs and the market is seriously worried about the Fed maybe changing course later this year. So, preparedness is the key here.

Follow the trend, respect support and resistance, and don’t chase those moves that you miss.  Another trade will come along any minute. So, forget about predicting reversals or breakouts. Just book your trade goals when you can and stick with your discipline.  Achieve your ambitions in the long-run by taking short-term trade gains off the board consistantly as they are met, over and over again.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SQQQ, BIDU, HON, EMR, KHC, KEYS, PFE, EEM. You can find Rick's review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

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🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick... I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%.... this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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