Thursday gave us another bullish day with much less whiplash than Wednesday. SPY opened 0.11% higher, DIA opened up 0.12%, and QQQ opened up just 0.07% higher.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways for the morning before starting a midday rally that took us to the highs of the day at about 2 p.m.  At that point, SPY and DIA ground sideways in a tight range and QQQ had a 15-minute selloff at 2:45 p.m. before following the others sideways in the same tight range. This action gave us white-bodied candles with lower wicks in all three.  SPY and DIA both retested their T-line (8ema) and 17ema before rebounding to close at the top of the candle. For its part, QQQ crossed back above its 50sma.  This all happened on below-average volume for all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green, with Basic Materials (+1.82%) well out in front leading the market higher. On the other side, Healthcare (+0.30%) lagged behind the other sectors. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.84%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ gained 0.98%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 48.94% and T2122 jumped back up into the middle of its over-bought range at 88.54.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.685% while Oil (WTI) jumped up another 2.79% to close at $69.19 per barrel.  So, on Thursday saw the fourth-straight day of gained in SPY and QQQ (also a second-straight for DIA).  It was big tech names NVDA (+1.91%), TSLA (+0.74%), AVGO (+3.97%), and META (+2.69%) that drove the SPY and QQQ on dollar-volume.   

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit higher at 230k (compared to a forecast of 227k and prior week value of 228k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up a bit as anticipated at 1,850k (in-line with the 1,850k forecast and up from the prior week 1,845k reading).  At the same time, August Month-on-Month Core PPI was up to +0.3% (versus the +0.2% forecast but well up from July’s -0.2%).  On the headline number, August Month-on-Month PPI was also up to +0.2% (compared to a +0.1% forecast and July’s 0.0% value).  On the budget front, the August Federal Budget Balance showed a much higher than expected deficit at -$380.0 billion (measured against a forecast of -$285.7 billion and July’s -$244.0 billion reading).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was up $2 billion for the week to $7.115 trillion from last week’s $7.113 trillion.

The WASDE Ag report also came out Thursday.  It reported an increased 2024 corn crop forecast, up 39 million bushels from last month to 15.2 billion bushels.  The silver lining for farmers is that the 55-million-bushel reduction in the beginning inventory number (due to increased usage in ethanol production).  Meanwhile, the Soybean forecast was left unchanged at 4.586 billion bushels. 

After the close, ABDE and RH both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, LLY announced it will invest $1.8 billion to expand its Irish manufacturing operations.  This doubles the company’s investment in those two plants in Ireland.  At the same time, GILD reported the results of a Phase 3 trial showing that its injectable HIV prevention drug reduced infections by 96%. (This is far superior to the existing oral pill prevention treatment.)  Later, GIS announced it has agreed to sell its North American yogurt business to a French company for $2.1 billion.  At the same time, MSFT reported it recovered after an outage of its cloud-based Office365 suite. Later, cable provider CHTR said Thursday that it is adding WBD’s Max and Discovery+ streaming services to its cable packages at no additional charge. 

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that GM is in talks to buy electric vehicle batteries (built in the US but made using Chinese company CATL’s technology).  The proposed source would be a TTDKY (Japanese company TDK) plant to be located somewhere in the Southeastern US.  Later, AAL flight attendants voted to ratify the new 5-year contract with the airline. At the same time, AMZN announced plans to invest $2.1 billion in its Delivery Service Partners program over the next six years.  This includes an increase in DSP partner compensation of $660 million over the next year.  Later, MA announced it is buying threat intelligence company “Recorded Future” from a private equity firm for $2.65 billion.  At the same time, an SEC filing showed that Berkshire Hathaway’s Insurance unit leader (Ajit Jain) sold more than half of his BRKA stock on September 9th.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced it has opened a preliminary investigation into VFS (Vietnam’s VinFast electric car maker) on reports of the company’s “Lane Assist” system malfunctioning.  At the same time, a Philly Court jury ruled in favor of BAYRY (Bayer) in a lawsuit alleging the company’s Roundup weed killer caused a plaintiff’s cancer.  Later, the FDA approved the first over-the-counter hearing aid software that is intended to be used with AAPL’s AirPod Pro headphones.  At the same time, NAVI accepted a CFPB-imposed ban on servicing federal student loans, as well as the $120 million settlement ($100 million in restitution and a $20 million fine).  This action was taken over NAVI steering borrowers to delay repayment rather than taking the lower-profit repayment plans those borrowers were qualified to get.  Later, Reuters reported that Indian antitrust regulators have found that AMZN and WMT (Flipkart unit) have violated India’s local competition laws by giving preference to selected sellers on their websites.  Specifically, the report said that each of the antitrust charges brought against the companies were found to be true. 

Elsewhere, the Office of the Comptroller of Currency announced it had entered into a formal agreement prohibiting WFC from expanding its product offerings and requiring the bank to submit action plans to fix its anti-money-laundering compliance programs.  (WFC stock was down more than 4% on the news.)  Later, the FAA reported that an ALK jet had to abort takeoff to avoid collision with a LUV jet at Nashville’s airport on Thursday.  An investigation is underway.  At the same time, the Treasury Dept. announced proposed corporate alternative minimum tax rules that would impact 100 large corporations that currently pay an average of 2.6% in taxes (60 of them paying less than 1%).  The proposals will generate about $250 billion over 10 years according to Treasury.  Later, a US Appeals Court threw out a $564 million jury verdict against BMO over its role in a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme.  At the same time, a federal judge overruled a CFTC decision that had prohibited betting on US elections.  So, there will be betting on various election outcomes.  After the close, Reuters reported that OXY will receive up to $500 million in support for its carbon capture facility in south TX.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that more than 340k customers were without power in LA following Hurricane Francine.  Meanwhile, the CDC reported it still has not identified the origin of a human case of bird flu in MO.  (The patient had no known exposure to poultry flocks or dairy herds.)  This was the 14^th human case so far this year requiring hospitalization and the first with unknown origin.  Elsewhere, the SEC announced it is set to vote on new “tick size” rules at a public meeting at 10 a.m. on September 18.  The proposed changes would allow stock pricing in increments of less than a penny.  (The confusing rule would have four different buckets, with some stocks pricing in penny increments, while others trade in half penny, fifth of a penny, of tenth of a penny increments.)

In what is widely seen as a precursor to Fed action next week, the ECB cut rates by a quarter point again (for the second time this year), lowering its deposit rate to 3.50%.  Elsewhere, the Fedwatch tool showed that Feds Fund Futures trades are indicating a increase in the probability of a half percent cut next following the PPI data release.  On Wednesday, there was only a 14% probability of a 50-basis-point cut (the other 86% being on a quarter-point cut).  However, one day later, that percentage more than doubled to 31% probability of a half percent and 69% expecting a quarter percent cut.  In tangentially-related news, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday that the US average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.20%. That is the lowest rate since February 2023.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green with just four of the region’s 12 exchanges showing red.  Malaysia (+0.84%), and Hong Kong (+0.75%) led the gainers while Shenzhen (-0.88%) and Japan (-0.68%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.28%), DAX (+0.52%), and FTSE (+0.30%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.03% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.648% and Oil (WTI) is up another 1.13% to $69.75 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes August Export Price Index, and August Import Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In overnight news, aerospace giant BA’s problems increased even more as workers in the Pacific Northwest (more than 30k workers) rejected the company’s contract offer by a massive 96% vote against and promptly went on strike.  This was the first BA strike since 2008 and it completely halts production of the company’s best-selling 737 line of jets.  Elsewhere, President Biden proposed a rule change that would prevent low-value shipments (largely made up of Temu and Shein retail packages) from getting special custom exemptions and avoid tariffs on Chinese goods.  (The White House estimates that those type of shipment have increased from 140 million per year to more than a billion over the last 10 years.)

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened the premarket just on the green side of flat and have been largely indecisive since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend remains mixed with the QQQ bearish. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended above their T-lines. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction (if one side or the other can find momentum), but the Bears has a little more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green this morning, led higher by AMD (+0.68%) and GOOGL (+0.65%). On the other side, TSLA (-0.34%) is the laggard. Normalcy has returned to the pre-market dollar-volume with NVDA having traded about five times as much dollar-volume of stock as the next closest ticker this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gave us major whiplash on Wednesday. SPY opened a small 0.01% lower, DIA gapped down 0.27%, and QQQ gapped up 0.23%.  However, at the point, all three major index ETFs sold off sharply and steadily for about 60-75 minutes. Then we saw momentum switch flipped and all three rallied sharply and steadily for the rest of the day. Only profit-taking the last five minutes kept us from closing at the highs in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave up large white-bodied candles with large lower wicks.  SPY and DIA were white Hammer type candles while QQQ had a larger body.  All three crossed above their T-line, although DIA closed only slightly above its 8ema.  This happened on average volume in the SPY and DIA as well as well-above average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green, with Technology (+2.43%) way, way (more than 1.25%) out front leading the Bulls higher. On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-0.60%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.03%, DIA gained just 0.25%, and QQQ popped 2.17% higher.  VXX dropped another 4.25% to close at 49.33% and T2122 rose up into the center of its mid-range at 47.68.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.655% while Oil (WTI) jumped up another 2.37% to close at $67.31 per barrel on potential hurricane impact.  So, on Wednesday saw the Bears trying to make hay on flat CPI numbers until a major mid-morning reversal ripped their faces off and did not let up the rest of the day.  As usual, NVDA led the market on the dollar-volume of stock traded, but this time also chipped in with a strong 8.15% gain.  

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included August Core CPI (month-on-month), which rose a tick to +0.3% (compared to the +0.2% forecast and July reading).  However, on the annual basis August Core CPI was flat at +3.2% (versus a forecast and July value of +3.2%).  On the headline front, the month-on-month August CPI was flat at +0.2% (compared to a forecast and July reading of +0.2%).  On the year-on-year basis, August CPI was down sharply to +2.5% (right on the +2.5% forecast but down sharply from July’2 +2.9% value).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories were down, about as expected, at +0.833 million barrels (versus a +0.900 million barrels forecast but up sharply from the prior week’s -6.873 million barrels number). 

In “here we go again” news, we are facing another potential government shutdown at the end of September.  Yet again, the GOP has put off either a budget or a continuing resolution to the last minute.  And just as in so many times before, GOP in-fighting has stopped progress as the deadline looms.  This time, a previously-scheduled vote on a Republican-dictated bill was canceled for Wednesday because the House Speaker did not want to go through the embarrassment of previous vote failures.  So, the Speaker told reporters that the Republican caucus will “work through the weekend” to try to get enough votes for their partisan bill, which he hopes to put up for a vote next Tuesday.  In the meantime, we wait for the next act in this play as the calendar ticks down with less than three weeks left.

In Fed news, on Wednesday the Fed Office of the Inspector General released a report saying its investigation had found that Atlanta Fed President Bostic had created the appearance he had traded on confidential Fed information 154 times between March 2018 and March 2023.  The report said there was no evidence Bostic actually traded on inside information.  However, his investment managers (who traded his personal account) had made trades 154 times during Fed “blackout periods” just ahead of FOMC announcements.  In addition, the investigation found that Bostic filed inaccurate financial disclosure forms, held more Treasuries than the Fed permits, and twice made trades that were different than what he had gotten pre-approval from the Fed to make.  The Fed Board of Governors will now review the report and decide appropriate action.

In stock news, on Wednesday STLA announce it will invest $406 million to retool three MI facilities to build components that can be shares between hybrid and all-electric vehicles.  At the same time, GME announced it would be issuing up to 20 million more shares of stock to raise cash for “general corporate purposes.”  (GME closed down almost 12% on the news.)  Later, ADBE announced it will release a new AI-powered video creation and editing tool later this year.  At the same time, SEC filings showed that BRKB had sold another 5.8 million shares of BAC between September 6 and September 10.  (That takes the BRKB offloading of BAC to almost 175 million since mid-July.)    Later, RHHBY (Roche) reported disappointing early-stage trial results or its weight-loss pill. 

Elsewhere, the CEO of RTX told an investor conference that he does not see any available “transformative M&A deals” in the aerospace industry and he is open to paring down the RTX business by pruning (selling) certain units.  Later, Reuters reported that BA is facing a possible strike Friday in the Pacific Northwest.  It seems that despite a tentative deal, which workers vote on ratifying on Thursday, many of the workers are enraged by the deal because it offers a much lower pay increase and other benefits that had been sought.  At the same time, AMZN announced it will invest $1.8 billion, this time in Brazil and by 2034, to add to its AWS cloud computing capacity. Later, NSC officially terminated its CEO (for an inappropriate relationship with the company’s top legal officer) and replaced him with the CFO.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, a number of business trade and lobbying groups came out in favor of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of X while trying to also not criticize their target (politicians).  The letter said the signers were “concerned the decision is being unduly influenced by political pressure.”  (However, both sides of the political aisle are strongly and publicly against allowing the acquisition.)  Later, a US District judge ruled in favor of an industry group (whose members include META, GOOGL, and SNAP) and against a UT state law requiring social media platforms to verify user age and restrict the accounts of minors. At the same time, Semaphore reported that the US Dept. of Commerce is close to approving the export of advanced NVDA AI chips to Saudi Arabia. 

Elsewhere, after the close, the CFPB ordered TD to pay $28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers with credit reporting agencies, hurting customer credit scores.  At the same time, the EU’s top privacy regulator announced it has opened an investigation of GOOGL over its AI use of European consumer personal data.  Later, EA, MSFT (Activision division), and TCEHY (Tencent) were among the companies hit with an EU consumer complaint over “tricking” children game players into spending more money via in-game currencies. At the same time, evidence was presented at GOOGL’s ad network antitrust trial that an ex-executive told company employees that the goal was to crush rival ad networks. 

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday Reuters reported that Korean-listed electronics giant Samsung will cut up to 30% of its “overseas staff” across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa.  Samsung is the world’s leading producer of smartphones, memory chips, and TVs and has more than 147,000 employees outside of South Korea.  The report said the cuts had already begun in India.  Reuters reported that the story had been confirmed by six Samsung sources.  Elsewhere, about 39% of US Gulf of Mexico oil production and 49% of US natural gas production in the area were shut down on Wednesday due to Hurricane Francine.  Meanwhile, Rho Motion reported that global electric vehicle sales were up 20% in August, despite a 33% decrease (which caused a 19-month low) in Europe. The increase was driven by record sales in China, which were up 42%.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with nine of the 12 exchanges closing above break-even.  Japan (+3.41%), Taiwan (+2.96%), and South Korea (+2.34%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.78%), DAX (+1.09%), and FTSE (+0.73%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.668% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.75% to $68.49 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, and August PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), WASDE Ag report (noon), August Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.)  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, and SIG.  Then, after the close, ABDE and RH report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, SIG beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, CAL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (KR reports at 8 a.m.)

In overnight news, MRNA announced plans to cut $1.1 billion in costs by 2027 on expectation of a rapid decline in its COVID vaccine business.  However, the company also said it expects to have 10 new biotech products approved over that same period.  Meanwhile, MCD announced it will extend its “$5 value meal” program through the end of the year in most US markets.  (Approximately 80% of MCD franchisees have chosen to do this program extension.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that both JPM and BAC are rolling out programs to reduce junior staff workloads.  JPM will limit MOST junior staffers to only 80 hours per week.  At the same time, BAC is rolling out a so-called “Banker Diary” system to track individual employee workloads.  (I’m sure that in no way will be used for analyzing and ranking employee productivity.)

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but have printed small and indecisive (mostly wick) candles since that point. All three are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed at best with the QQQ now bearish. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend with the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended, having just re-crossed their T-lines. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction if one side or the other can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning, led higher by GOOGL (+1.15%). On the other side, TSLA (-0.54%) is the laggard. Interestingly, normalcy has returned to the pre-market dollar-volume with NVDA having traded more than six times as much stock as the next closest ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was a down then up day.  SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA gapped up 0.26%, and QQQ gapped up 0.41%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs did some form of morning selloff that re-crossed the opening gap and reached the lows of the day about noon.  This was followed by a long, steady rally into the end of the day.  This action gave us gap-up candles with long lower wicks.  The SPY printed a white-bodied, small-body, long-handle Hammer, while DIA gave us a larger, black-bodied Hammer that retested and failed its T-line (8ema) from below.  For its part, QQQ made the most gain with a gap-up, larger white-body Hammer candle.  However, this all happened on much lower-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green and, while it may be a data issue, TC200 showed Consumer Cyclical (+10.89%) way, way out front leading the market higher.  On the other side Energy (-1.60%) was by far the worst-performing sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.44%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ gained 0.92%.  VXX fell another 1.77% to close at 51.52% and T2122 was just shy of being flat to stay in the bottom portion of its mid-range at 34.25.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.644% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.54% to close at $66.28 per barrel.  So, Tuesday did see some movement with a gap up, significant selloff and then steady rebound rally all afternoon.    

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook that showed power consumption was still on track to rise to new records in 2024 and 2025.  The EIA projects growing data center demand will increase electric usage to 4,101 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 and then 4,185 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025.  (That compares to a 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023.)  Interestingly, solar accounted for 60% of all electric-generating capacity added in the first half of 2024 with TX leading the way by adding 16 billion kilowatt-hours in the first six months.  Later, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks, which showed a bigger than expected drawdown of 2.790 million barrels (compared to the +0.700-million-barrel inventory build that was forecasted, but much less than the prior week’s 7.400-million-barrel drawdown) were reported.

After the close, PLAY, GME, and WOOF all missed on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line. 

In stock news, on Tuesday, TSM reported August sales that point toward a Q3 beat.  At the same time, BMWYY (BMW) cut its 2024 financial outlook, citing weaker sales, in particular in China, as well as supply issues. The cut was for EBIT range mid-point to 6.5%, down from 9.0%.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) announced it is scrapping a range of labor agreements, including one that guaranteed a minimum number of jobs at six German plants through 2029.  The company is in serious negotiations with unions and this may be a negotiating tactic, but it raises the unheard-of prospect of job cuts or plant closures at VLKAF’s flagship German factories for the first time in 87 years. At the same time, NBTB announced it had agreed to buy EVBN for $236 million.  The deal will create a bank with $16 billion in assets.  Later, BA announced it delivered 40 jets in August, up five from August 2023 and up eight month-on-month.  In other BA news, Reuters exclusively reported BA had delayed supplier production milestones by six months for its 737 MAX.  (This is a sign BA is now struggling to get production back on schedule for its top-selling 737 MAX planes.)  Later, UPS announced it would acquire German healthcare logistics (temperature-control warehousing and shipping) firm Frigo-Trans and its sister company BPL for an undisclosed sum.

Elsewhere, NKE shareholders rejected (for the second straight year) a proposal that the firm enter into binding agreements to address the human rights of workers at its suppliers (where thousands of NKE garment makers are allegedly unpaid, forced labor).  At the same time, LUV Chairman Kelly announced he is stepping down amidst a board fight by activist investors and CEO Jordan.  Later, CPB announced it is dropping the word “Soup” from its name and will be known as “The Campbell Company” as it shifts into other packaged foods. At the same time, Reuters reported that GS is close to a deal to sell its GM credit card unit to BCS for an undisclosed sum.  (The GM card unit has about $2 billion of card balances outstanding.)  After the close, the CEO of RTX told a conference that the alarms are going off for it with massive problems like its supply chain having never recovered from COVID-19, being unable to find qualified labor for its production lines, and more.  Specifically, RTX CEO Hayes said that 2,000 of the company’s 14,000 suppliers are located in China.  He refused to define it, but said that if “if” ever happens, he doesn’t know what the company will deal with the situation.  After the close, AMZN announced it will invest $10.45 billion in UK Data Centers over the next five years as it builds out its Web Services offerings.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, DE agreed to pay $9.93 million to settle SEC charges that its Thailand subsidiary offered massage parlor and other improper gifts to the government of that country from 2017 to 2020 as well as other commercial bribery to win contracts.  At the same time, the SEC fined KDP $1.5 million to settle charges of inaccurate statements regarding the recyclability of its K-cup coffee pods.  Later, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 99k electric SUVs to fix door handles which allow water to seep into circuit boards and can lead to lock malfunctions. At the same time, a new lawsuit was filed against CHD that alleges the company’s Trojan Condoms are not safe because they contain “forever chemicals.”  Later, Fed Vice-Chair Barr announced revised capital requirement rules for banks in what is widely seen as a big win for major banks and their lobbyists.  (The increase in capital requirements will be roughly half of the increase initially proposed.) 

Meanwhile, the FTC told ANCTF (operator of Circle-K convenience stores) and SVNDF (operator of 7-eleven convenience stores) that it may probe any acquisition deal.  (If the two strike a deal, it would combine the two largest convenience chains in the world.)  Later, a former executive of NWSA testified in the GOOGL antitrust lawsuit, saying that NWSA would have lost $9 billion in 2017 if it had switched away from the GOOGL ad buying platform.  This, he said, kept NWSA captive to GOOGL and feeling like hostages.  After the close WBA and TEVA announced they had settled with the city of Baltimore MD over opioid crisis liability ahead of the trial which was to begin next week.  The two companies will pay $402.5 million to settle the case.  Also after the close, a TPR executive testified that if the company merges with CPRI, they will have room to raise prices and lower discounts, just as the FTC had charged.  However, while those things were also shown in a slide deck from TPR’s CEO, the executive said that did not necessarily mean the company would do those things.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, OPEC+ revised its global oil demand forecast downward for both 2024 and 2025.  This was the second consecutive month OPEC+ has lowered its estimate of worldwide oil usage.  Still, the forecast calls for an increase of 2.03 million barrels per day on average for all of 2024 (down a bit from last month’s 2024 forecast of a 2.11 million barrels per day increase).  For 2025, OPEC+ is calling for an additional increase of 1.74 million barrels per day (versus last month’s estimate of a 1.78 million barrels per day increase).  Meanwhile, FDX warned that some areas of Louisiana may see pickup and delivery delays later in the week as storm Francine is expected to make landfall in the state Wednesday.   Elsewhere, the Census Bureau reported that the median US 2023 INFLATION-ADJUSTED Household income had recovered to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, even considering the inflation spikes of 2022 and 2023. Finally, Bloomberg reported that online grocery prices fell by 3.7% in August which was the largest monthly decline since 2014. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with just three of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  Japan (-1.49%), Malaysia (-1.24%), and Shanghai (-0.82%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape at midday with 11 of the 14 exchanges in the green.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (+0.39%), and FTSE (+0.07%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, at 7:15 a.m., Futures point toward a down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.627% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.16% to $67.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to August Core CPI and August CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include DBI, HEPS, and TEN.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, August PPI, WASDE Ag report, August Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, SIG, ABDE, and RH.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, DBA reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  This included a significant (48%) downside earnings surprise.

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened modestly lower in the premarket. Since that point, all three have printed indecisive (largely wick) candles that are back to little-changed from their early session open. All three remain below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed at best with the QQQ now bearish. In the longer-term we still have a Bull trend with the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. In terms of extension, the 8ema has caught up and none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched below it. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction if one side or the other can find momentum. However, the Bulls have a bit more slack to play with. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning, led again by TSLA (-0.45%). On the other side, AMZN (+0.25%) is holding up best. Oddly enough, TSLA has traded more in the premarket in terms of dollar-volume than NVDA (-0.21%), which normally has 2-5 times as much dollar-volume as the next closest ticker. So, there may be changes afoot or perhaps traders are just waiting on the CPI numbers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a gap higher and then a run up and selloff that results in not much move.  SPY gapped up 0.79%, DIA gapped up 0.70%, and gapped up 0.92%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs rallied until 10:15 a.m.  At that point, the resulting pullbacks all lasted about an hour and varied, with DIA not even pulling back to the opening level, SPY pulling back a little less than half way aback across its opening gap, and QQQ pulling back about two-thirds of its opening gap.  All three then rallied back to the highs of the day as of shortly after 1 p.m. only to pullback with DIA and SPY staying above their opening level and the more volatile QQQ dipping back into its gap.  Then all three made a modest rally the last 75 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ were also Bullish Harami candles while DIA closed 5 cents too high to qualify as a Harami.  This happened on below-average volume in all three.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Industrials (+1.35%) and Financial Services (+1.20%) leading the way higher as Energy (+0.23% lagged behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 1.12%, DIA gained 1.13%, and QQQ gained 1.29%. VXX plummeted 6.52% to close at 52.45% and T2122 climbed out of its oversold area to the bottom part of its mid-range at 34.73.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 3.70% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.49% to close at $68.68 per barrel.  So, Monday was a gap-up and then undecided day that stayed on the Bullish side (with all three major index ETFs closing above their gap-up opens). On the Tech front, GOOGL (-1.46%) was the lone loser among the big dogs, but AAPL’s “Glow Day” product announcement did not help it with the stock only closing up 0.04%.  However, NVDA (+3.54%) and NVDA (+2.83%) did gain…maybe on the AI focus of AAPL’s new product offerings. 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday were limited to August NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which stayed flat at 3.0%, and July Consumer Credit, which showed a massive jump.  July Consumer Credit came in at $25.45 billion (compared to a forecast of $12.30 billion and a June reading of 5.23 billion). 

After the close, ORCL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Monday, prior to AAPL’s big iPhone refresh (this time featuring AI) a key competitor racked up a big win.  Chinese phone maker Huawei announced they had received 3 million pre-orders for their own upcoming phone refresh (this one a tri-fold, Z-shape design).  This was significant because Huawei is charging $2,800 for the new tri-fold phone and it didn’t even tell consumers when the phones would be available. Huawei just wanted to front-run AAPL by locking in orders.  At the same time, KEY announced it had sold $7 billion of low-yield assets for a loss and that they would take about a $700 million hit on the assets in Q3. Later, the CFO of C told an investor conference he expects banking fees from its Investment Banking unit to rise 20% in Q3 compared to Q3 in 2023. 

Elsewhere, SIEGY (Siemens) announced it’s spending $60 million on a new US factory (in NY?) to build high-speed trains for the Los Angeles to Las Vegas passenger route.  The plant is expected to come online in 2026 with the rail line expected to begin operation in 2028.  After the close, GS CEO Soloman told an investor conference that the bank’s trading business is performing weakly (down 10%) in Q3, especially the bond trading unit.  Also after the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that the CEO of NSC will step down amidst the internal probe into misconduct (an inappropriate relationship with employee).  Finally, as part of its earnings report, ORCL announced it had signed a deal for web services with AMZN.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, BIG filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as expected. BIG also announced it had received $707.5 million from Nexus Capital, which will give it the money to operate while it negotiates a sale to private equity as part of the bankruptcy.  Later, the SEC announced that seven public companies had agreed to pay a combined fine of $3 million for violating whistleblower regulations.  The offending companies were TRU, ACHC, APPF, IEX, LXU, SMFL, and AKA.  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved a $133 million sale of RTX air-to-air missiles to Singapore. 

Elsewhere, the FTC trial to block the TPR acquisition of CPRI got underway Monday.   The FTC presented emails from the CPRI CEO related to several TPR products and urged the judge to block the merger on anti-trust grounds.  At the same time, X and Nippon Steel replied to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US letter sent last week that opposed the acquisition. X and Nippon Steel claim the CFIUS letter did not seriously consider how the merger might positively impact the national security of both countries and ignores a trade agreement that indicates Japanese steel does not present a risk to the US market.  (How that relates to whether Japan owns the US competitor is unclear.) 

In miscellaneous news, the SEC approved (along party lines, over GOP-appointed board member votes) new accounting standards (actually auditing standards) that were proposed by the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (which was created by Congress after Enron and other accounting scandals).  The new standards were written by the PCAOB following its study found that 46% of public company audits done in 2023 did not review sufficient or appropriate evidence to provide a valid audit opinion.  (The new standards take effect in December.  However, if the disgraced GOP candidate wins, they would likely be reversed in 2025 as being too burdensome on businesses.)  Elsewhere, the FBI reported Monday that in 2023, Americans lost $5.6 billion to cryptocurrency fraud schemes (mostly crypto investment schemes).  This was a 45% increase from the amount lost to the same source in 2022. Finally oil (WTI) prices rebounded Monday as a new tropical storm entered the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast expects it to become a hurricane on Wednesday (named Francine) and oil traders are betting on at least temporary production and refining shutdowns in the US Gulf Coast area.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves with just four of the 12 exchanges below break-even.  Malaysia (+0.54%), Singapore (+0.46%), and India (+0.42%) led the gains while South Korea (-0.49%) was the biggest loser.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the opposite picture is taking shape on modest moves at midday.  Just four of the 14 bourses are green with the CAC (+0.13%), DAX (-0.44%), and FTSE (-0.54%) pacing the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.13% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.719% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.06% to $67.98 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon) and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.)  However, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr does speak at 10 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ASO and CMA.  Then, after the close, PLAY, GME, and WOOF reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get August Core CPI, August CPI, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, August PPI, WASDE Ag report, August Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, DBI, HEPS, and TEN report. On Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, SIG, ABDE, and RH.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In overnight news, the EU’s top court ruled that AAPL must pay $14.4 billion in back taxes in a case the company has dragged out since 2016.  (The case stems from AAPL using Ireland to hide revenue (taking advantage of the bribe tax rate Ireland used to lure AAPL and avoid paying taxes throughout the EU).  At the same time, the same top EU Court upheld GOOGL’s $2.4 billion fine for abusing its dominant search market position to favor its ads over competitor ad offerings.  Meanwhile, GS said it will take a $400 million pretax hit in Q3 as part of the unwinding of its consumer unit (which included the GM-brand credit card business and other loans).  Elsewhere, AZN reported disappointing lung cancer drug trial results.

With that background, all three major index ETFs opened slightly higher but have been indecisive since that point. DIA is retesting its T-line (8ema) from below while QQQ pulled back below Monday’s candle body before rebounding back up into a Butterfly Doji and SPU did something similar with a smaller move down. After these machinations, all three major index ETFs remain near the Monday close. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed at best with the QQQ now bearish. In the long-term we still have a Bull trend with DIA and SPY. In terms of extension, the 8ema has caught up and none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched below it. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, the market has room to run either direction if one side or the other can find momentum. However, the Bulls have a bit more slack to play with. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, 8 of the 10 are in the green this morning, led again by TSLA (+1.33%). However, AAPL (-1.02%) is by far the biggest drag on the group. So, the Bulls have control in the Tech sector again, early this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw the Bears in control early and then a drift sideways all afternoon.  SPY opened 0.05% higher, DIA opened up 0.13%, and QQQ gapped down 0.20%.  At that point, QQQ led the way by selling off sharply until 11 a.m. and then more modestly for another 60 minutes.  SPY followed through to the upside for 5 minutes before following QQQ in a sharp selloff until 11 a.m. and then more modestly for an hour.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA rallied for 20 minutes before it too followed QQQ by sharply selling until 11 a.m. and then more modestly until noon. At that point, all the air went out of the market, with all three trading sideways in a very tight range the rest of the day.  On the day, SPY and DIA retested their T-line (8ema) and failed that test.  SPY also tested and crossed below its 50sma.  This action gave us large black-body candles dropping well below the consolidations in SPY and QQQ.  This action took place on average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as slightly below-average volume in DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.56%) way out in front of the other sectors, leading the way lower.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-0.46%) and Communication Services (-0.48%) held up better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY dropped 1.68%, DIA fell 0.98%, and QQQ dropped 2.68%. VXX popped 7.41% to close at 56.11% and T2122 dropped into the middle of its oversold territory at 10.65.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell again to close at 3.716% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.43% to close at $68.16 per barrel on demand concerns.  So, Friday a big drop, led by the TSLA (-8.45%), NVDA (-4.09%), GOOGL (-4.02%), AMZN (-3.65%), and AMD (-3.65%).  (AVGO also lost 10.35% on very heavy volume after its beat on both lines and modest forecast increase did not meet market expectations.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included August Avg. Hourly Earnings, which were better than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and July’s -0.1%).  On an annual basis, August Avg. Hourly Earnings were up 3.8% (versus a 3.7% forecast and up from July’s 3.6% reading).  At the same time, August Nonfarm Payrolls were up 142k (compared to a +164k forecast but much stronger than July’s +89k).  On the private side, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls were up 118k (versus a forecast of +139k but up strongly from July’s +74k value).  The August Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (with July’s reading also being 62.7%).  This led to a August Unemployment Rate of 4.2% (compared to a 4.2% forecast and down a tick from July’s 4.3% reading). 

In Fed news, on Friday, New York Fed President Williams indicated that the time has come for rate cuts.  Williams said, “With the economy now in equipoise and inflation on a path to 2%, it is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate.”  However, he did hedge his bets, saying “The stance of monetary policy can be moved to a more neutral setting over time depending on the evolution of the data, the outlook, and the risks to achieving our objectives.”  He concluded, “It’s pretty clear we’re going to need over time to get interest rates back to a more normal level. The problem with that statement is I’m not sure what that more normal level is and I’m not sure at all about how long that should take.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller agreed with Williams, saying “The time has come (for the Fed to begin rate cuts).”  He continued, “If the data supports cuts at consecutive meetings, then I believe it will be appropriate to cut at consecutive meetings.”  Waller also opened the door to larger cuts, saying “If the data suggests the need for larger cuts, then I will support that as well. I was a big advocate of front-loading rate hikes when inflation accelerated in 2022, and I will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.”

In stock news, on Friday, BAC analysts reported research showing that GOOGL’s share of the internet search market increased in August, helped by its integration of AI.  The report said, GGOL has 90.5% of the search market globally, but “only” 87.9% in the US.  At the same time, Reuters reported (and the French company confirmed) that French fir Elis had made an acquisition offer to VSTS.  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that QCOM has explored the possibility of acquiring portions of INTC’s chip design business.  At the same time, activist investor hedge fund Starboard Value filed a shareholder resolution to end NWSA’s “dual-class shares” in a bid to oust Rupert Murdoch from his control of the company.  After the close, S&P announced that DELL, PLTR, and ERIE will join the S&P500 before the open on September 23.  (These will replace AAL, ETSY, and BIO, which will be dropped from the index at the same time.)  Later, TSM announced they have achieved production yields on par with Taiwanese plants at their AZ plant. This likely means that 4nm plant is on track to achieving output goals after the initial startup in April.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, the Financial Times reported that AAPL’s new iPhone (to be announced on Monday) will use ARM chips for AI technologies.  Later, STLA recalled 1.46 million vehicles worldwide, including 1.23 million in the US, due to software malfunction in the anti-lock brake system that can increase the risk of crashes.  At the same time BA’s Starliner capsule was able to make it back to earth, parachuting into the NM desert.  (It will now be shipped to FL, where it will be examined to discover what parts failed.)  In other BA news, Sunday BA announced a it has a tentative deal with a union covering 32,000 of its workers in the US Pacific Northwest. (The deal calls for a 25% wage increase over four years, a commitment to build its next commercial aircraft in that area, 12 weeks paid parental leave, and improved retirement benefits among other things.)  At the same time, ANCTF (owner of the Circle-K convenience stores) plans to make a second offer to SVNDF (owner of the 7-eleven convenience stores) according to Bloomberg. (The first offer, of $38.6 billion, was rejected at the end of last week.) Later, CNBC reported that the CEO of NSC is being investigated by the company board over engaging in an inappropriate workplace relationship.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, a federal judge rejected a COIN motion to dismiss a shareholder class action suit alleging the company had played down the risk of being sued by the SEC (for buying/selling crypto being securities).  So, the shareholder suit will continue.  At the same time, the SEC fined Esmark and its Chairman for making a “false tender offer” to acquire X at $35 per share.  (The suit alleges the tender offer was made even though Esmark had no financing in place to execute on the offer, which would have required $7.8 billion in cash.)  Later, MA state security regulators fined MS $2 million for failing to monitor insider trading by FRCB prior to the bank failing.  (MS managed the stock sales of FRCB and the small bank’s Chair was allowed to execute stock sales prior to material nonpublic information being released to the market.)  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $691 million of RTX Sidewinder missiles to the Netherlands. 

Elsewhere, a bi-partisan group of Congressman and Senators launched an inquiry into six US retailers (including AZO and AAP) over whether they bought Chinese auto parts and evaded tariffs by trans-shipping the cargoes through Thailand.  After the close Friday, Bloomberg reported that BIG is preparing to file for bankruptcy under chapter 11.  (This comes after the company postponed earnings from Sept. 6 to Sept. 12.) Friday evening, the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved BLK’s $12.5 billion (cash and stock) deal to acquire Global Infrastructure Partners (which owns many assets in the utility space).  Then, on Saturday, as part of a money laundering case, WYNN agreed to pay $130 million to the SEC and admit that it let unlicensed money transfers from around the world funnel gambler money to its flagship Las Vegas casino. This was part of a Dept. of Justice “Non-prosecution settlement.”  Finally, on Sunday, DirecTV filed an FCC complaint against DIS for anti-competitive practices and failing to negotiate in good faith.  DIS was requiring DirecTV to take an pay for less popular channels in order to distribute ESPN, while DIS offers “skinnier” bundles direct to the public.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Singapore (+1.22%) was the outlier of four gaining exchanges.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.42%), Taiwan (-1.36%), and Shanghai (-1.06%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see nearly green across the board at midday with only Greece (-0.26%) in the red among the 14 bourses.  The CAC (+0.84%), DAX (+0.75%), and FTSE (+0.75%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.68% open, the SPY is implying a +0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.81% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 3.746% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.78% to $68.20 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to August NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.) and July Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open. However, after the close, ORCL reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday the Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  Then Wednesday, we get August Core CPI, August CPI, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core PPI, August PPI, WASDE Ag report, August Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ASO, CMA, PLAY, GME, and WOOF. Then Wednesday, DBI, HEPS, and TEN report. On Thursday, we hear from BIG, CAL, KR, SIG, ABDE, and RH.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, there are no significant earnings reports.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are indecisively in control this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. Since then, all three have given us indecisive, small-body and plenty of wick candles. Despite the gap higher, all three remain below their 8ema. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed with the QQQ now bearish and in the long-term we still have a Bull trend with DIA and SPY. In terms of extension, QQQ remains a bit stretched below its T-line and SPY pushed toward joining it Friday. However DIA remains close enough to the 8ema. On the other hand, the T2122 indicator is back in the middle of its oversold range. So, the market is not “crazy extended” but at least the QQQ will need a pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning, led by TSLA (+1.94%). However, five of the 10 are up more than a percent and the laggard is AAPL (+0.29%). So the Bulls are in control in the Tech sector this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged on indecision (at least momentarily) at the open.  SPY opened flat, DIA gapped up 0.21%, and QQQ gapped down 0.35%.  However, then they all three ran modestly higher for the first hour, sold off sharply until 11:30 a.m. in the QQQ, and 12:20 p.m. in the SPY and DIA.  From that point, all three made a slow, steady rally part of the way back up before starting to sell modestly at 2:55 p.m. before chopping sideways the last 15 minutes (ending on an up-tick).  This action gave us indecisive, white-bodied Spinning Top type candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA.  SPY retested and failed its 17ema while DIA retested and failed its T-line (8ema).  This happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Industrials (-1.15%) and Healthcare (-1.04%) way out front leading markets lower.  Meanwhile, Communication Services (+0.53%) held up better than the others and led the two gaining sectors higher.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.24%, DIA fell 0.48%, and QQQ gained 0.09%. The VXX fell almost 5% to close at 52.24% and T2122 dropped again, this time into the lower half of its mid-range at 37.30.  10-Year bond yields fell again to close at 3.731% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $69.12 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw the rollover continue (albeit slowly) in the SPY and DIA while the QQQ tried to hold us up in a consolidation.  It is worth noting that the big dogs tried to hold the rest of the market up with NVDA (+0.94%), TSLA (+4.90%), AAPL (+0.69%), and AMZN (+2.63%) being the four most traded (dollar-volume) in the market.  Still, this may have been a waiting day as traders wait on Friday’s August Payrolls numbers. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in significantly lower than expected at +99k (versus a +144k forecast and July’s +111k reading).  Later, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were a bit lower than predicted at 227k (compared to a 231k forecast and the prior week’s 232k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were down to 1,838k (versus a 1,870k forecast and the prior week’s 1,860k value).  At the same time, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity was up BIG to +2.5% (versus a +2.3% forecast and especially versus Q1’s +0.2% reading).  Meanwhile, Q2 Unit Labor Costs were much lower than anticipated at +0.4% (compared to a +0.9% forecast and down sharply from Q1’s 4.0% value).  Later, August Global Services PMI was stronger than expected at 55.7 (versus a forecast of 55.2 and July’s 55.0 number).  At the same time, August S&P Global Composite PMI that was also stronger than predicted at 54.6 (compared to 54.1 that was forecast and the prior month’s 54.3).  Later, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment was lower than anticipated at 50.2 (versus a 50.5 forecast and July’s 51.1 reading).  At the same time, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was a couple ticks better than expected at 51.5 (compared to a 51.3 forecast and July’s 51.4 number).  On the cost side, August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices were up three ticks to 57.3 (versus a 56.0 forecast and a 57.0 July reading).  Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a large drawdown of 6.873 million barrels (compared to a 0.600-million-barrel drawdown forecast and the prior week’s -0.668 million barrels value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $10 billion reduction from $7.123 trillion to $7.113 trillion.

After the close, AVGO and DOCU reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  In addition, both companies raised forward guidance.

In stock news, on Thursday, BNY announced it had agreed to acquire Archer (a private technology and operations service for banks).  Details were not disclosed.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported on data leaked by DIS that disclosed customer and staff personal information as well as company financial and strategy information. Later, F announced that US vehicle sales increased 13.4% in August on strong SUV and pickup demand.  (In addition, in a much smaller segment, F all electric sales rose 29% while hybrid sales grew almost 50%.)  At the same time, TSLA announced plans to launch “Full Self-Driving” in China and Europe (pending regulatory approval) in early 2025.  TSLA CEO Musk said they were “likely” to get approval from both regulators by the end of the year.  (TSLA closed up 4.90% on the news.)  Later, APLD (which runs data centers) announced it will receive $160 million in funding from investors including NVDA.  (APLD closed up more than 65% on the news.)  At the same time, ABT said it will be launching a continuous glucose monitoring system, a multi-billion-dollar market. 

Meanwhile, CNOB agreed to buy smaller banking competitor FLIC for $284 million.  The combined banks will have $114 billion in assets.  At the same time, FDX announce it has invested in private AI robotics company Nimble to help scale up automation in the FDX fulfillment unit.  Later, Reuters reported that BX and Vista Equity Partners are in talks to acquire SMAR in a deal valued around $7 billion.  At the same time, T said it has made its “final offer” to the striking CWA union (which has 17,000 members on strike against T).  The union told Reuters “The offer did not meet expectations.”  Later, SLTA announced it will invest $385 million in a new plant in Argentina.  After the close, the Teamsters union threatened to expand its strike from just the Detroit MPC refinery to other refineries as the company has been unwilling to negotiate with the union.  (The Detroit refinery is one of 13 MPC refineries.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that after the deal with Skydance Media, ORCL co-founder Larry Ellison will control PARA and his son will serve as CEO.  Also after the close, CRM announced it would buy private firm “Own Company” for $1.9 billion to accelerate the growth of its data security and privacy products.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the SEC announced it will no longer conduct misconduct proceedings against accountants who allegedly perform malpractice or submit fraudulent audit reports for public companies.  The move comes after the pro-business, ultra-conservative SCOTUS recently rules to curtail the agency enforcement powers. Later, the EU’s highest court rejected an appeal against antitrust fines imposed by the EU antitrust regulator on AFLYY, SINGY, and British Airways.  At the same time, TX energy regulators denied a funding request for a new power plant project that would be a joint-venture of NEE and private Aegle Power.  (This is worthy of mention because TX had named the project a finalist for award of state grants to increasing state electric generation, but NEE denied being involved or consenting to be listed as an applicant for the program.)  Later, HSY filed a motion seeking the dismissal of a lawsuit which alleges the company misled consumers with holiday-themed candy packaging (when the actual product did not contain the same festive designs and/or colors).

Elsewhere, After the close, SNAP was sued by the state of NM, which alleged the platform failed to protect children from sexual exploitation.  At the same time, Nikkei reported that TM (Toyota) and NSANY (Nissan) will invest nearly $7 billion with Japanese government support to expand battery production by 50%.  Later, the Dept. of Trans. announced it is opening an inquiry into AAL, DAL, LUV, and UAL rewards and frequent flyer programs over potential unfair, anticompetitive, and deceptive practices.  At the same time, AMZN sued the NRLB, challenging the agency which had ruled AMZN must negotiate with a union after an election at the company’s New York City warehouse.  AMZN’s suit followed the conservative playbook, saying the agency’s structure is unconstitutional and had no right to rule the election results were fair.  Later, China arrested five AZN oncology division employees in Shenzhen, possibly related to the collection of patient data that infringed China’s data-privacy laws.

In miscellaneous news, OPEC+ announced they had agreed to delay a previously planned October and November oil production increase after oil prices hit their lowest levels in nine months.  Meanwhile, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (made up of cabinet-level members of many departments and chaired by Treasury Sec. Yellen) sent a letter to both X and Nippon Steel.  The letter said the acquisition could create US national security risks and could lead to a reduction in domestic steel production.  (This letter reflects the feelings of the vast majority of politicians on both sides of the aisle.)  However, in Japan, the Japanese PM hopeful and current Digital Minister Kono told reporters that “Governments should not intervene in deals in an arbitrary manner.”  He went on to say, “Perhaps it is the presidential election and everyone wants the labor vote, but I would hope that the market will not be distorted by such a situation.” 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with just three of the 12 regional exchanges in the green. Shenzhen (-1.44%) and South Korea (-1.21%) paced the more numerous losers while Thailand (+1.66%) and Taiwan (+1.17%) led the gainers.  In Europe, with the sold exception of Belgium (+0.16%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.25%), DAX (-0.54%), and FTSE (-0.24%) lead the region lower in afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.36% open, the SPY is implying a -0.61% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.06% open at this hour (ahead of PCE data).  At the same time, 10-Yead bond yields have dropped to 3.699% and Oil (WTI) is on the green side of flat at $69.27 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams (8:45 a.m.) and Fed Governor Waller (11 a.m. and 11 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO. Then, after the close, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In late-breaking news, AAPL has approved a version of the TCEHY (Tencent) WeChat app for its phones ahead of next Monday’s iPhone 16 launch. (WeChat is China’s most used social media platform.)  This move is a nod to the fact Chinese phone makers have been taking market share from AAPL.  There was no word on the financial terms, but there had been a pushback from TCEHY about the cut AAPL was taking from app store apps.  Elsewhere, in another sign of corporate power, PriceWaterhouseCoopers (one of the “big four” accounting firms globally) has told 26,000 UK employees it will begin to use location data to track employees in order to ensure they spend at least 60% of their time each week in the office or at a client location.  Meanwhile, the US announced new export controls on advanced technology (particularly quantum computers and the chip-making tools needed to build them).  This brings the US in-line with allies such as the Netherlands (basically limiting ASML tech exports to China) and the UK.

So far this morning, ABM and GCO reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, DOOO missed on revenue while posting a MASSIVE (+104.5%) beat on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control ahead of data. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the premarket. Since then, all three have given us plenty of wick, but SPY does have a black-body candle in the early session, indicating some bearish follow-through. All three remain below their 8ema. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is mixed with the QQQ now bearish and in the long-term we still have a Bull trend with DIA and SPY. In terms of extension, QQQ remains a bit stretched below its T-line but the other two are not far from that average. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, the market is not “too extended” but the QQQ will need more pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning. Only INTC (+0.10%) holds on to green territory. However, NVDA (-1.30%) and TSLA (-0.66%), which are by far the biggest dogs in terms of dollar-volume traded, are pulling tech and the whole market lower early. Finally, don’t forget this is Friday, payday, and time to ready your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was an up-and-down day in the market.  SPY gapped down 0.35%, DIA opened just 0.05% lower, and QQQ gapped down 0.69%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied steadily until shortly after 11 a.m. when they hit the high of the day.  However, then we reversed again and all three sold off, reaching the lows of the day at about 3:15 p.m. only to bounce again the final 45 minutes.  This gave us white-bodied, Inverted Hammer type candles in all three major index ETFs.  DIA retested (and failed) its T-line (8ema) from below while SPY retested (and passed) its 50sma from above.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.10%) way out front leading the market lower.  Meanwhile, Utilities (+1.00%) held up far better than any of the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.23%, DIA gained 0.02%, and QQQ fell 0.26%. The VXX gained another 2.67% to close at 54.97% and T2122 pulled back a bit more into the mid-range at 56.19.  10-Year bond yields fell again to close at 3.759% while Oil (WTI) dropped again by 2.12% to close at $68.85 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a volatile, but ultimately nothing day with traders waiting on Thursday’s Weekly Unemployment Claims or maybe even on Friday’s August Payrolls numbers. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included July Exports, which came in a bit higher than expected at $266.60 billion (compared to a June $265.30 billion value).  At the same time, July Imports also exceeded predictions at $345.40 billion (versus June’s $338.00 billion).  Together, those gave us a July Trade Balance that was exactly as expected at -$78.80 billion (compared to a -$78.80 billion forecast but up slightly from June’s -$73.00 billion reading).  Later, July Factory Orders were strong er than anticipated at +5.0% (versus a +4.7% forecast and vastly better than June’s -3.3% number).  At the same time, July JOLTs Job Openings were lower than predicted at 7.673 million openings (compared to a forecast calling for 8.090 million and a June reading of 7.910 million).  It is worth noting this is the lowest number of job openings since early 2021.  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Stocks report showed a MASSIVE drawdown of 7.400 million barrels (versus forecasts calling for 0.900-million-barrel drawdown and even relative to the prior week’s 3.400- million-barrel draw).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic warned against holding rates too high for too long.  Bostic posted an essay on the Atlanta Fed website saying, “We must not maintain a restrictive policy stance for too long.”  He continued, saying that waiting on inflation to reach the 2% goal (before cutting) “would risk labor market disruptions that could inflict unnecessary pain and suffering.”  Bostic concluded by saying, “I do not sense a looming crash or panic among business contacts. However, the data and our grassroots feedback describe an economy and labor market losing momentum.”  Later, the Fed Beige Book showed that the economy expanded more slowly from the middle of July through August 26.  It stated, “Economic activity grew slightly in three districts, while the number of districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period.”  The report continued, “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook.”  Again, the report supports the idea of a rate cut in September.

After the close, HPE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, CASY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CPRT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, the Nordstrom family made an offer to take JWN private for $23 per share in cash.  (This offer was practically no premium compared to the Tuesday close, and JWN stock ended the day down 0.18%.)  At the same time, VLVLY (Volvo) announced plans to update its hybrid line as the company shifted away from its previously-stated “pure electric by 2030” strategy.  Later, X warned of thousands of job cuts if its acquisition by Nippon Steel is blocked. This came after reports the (President Biden is prepared to block the deal and with both Presidential candidates also vowing to block it.)  At the same time, NSC announced it had reached a tentative agreement with another union, this time the one representing conductors.  (This brings the total tentative union agreements in place to cover 65% of the NSC workforce.)  

Elsewhere, later, a GM joint venture (with Korean LG Energy) agreed to recognize the UAW union at its battery plant in TN.  At the same time, the founder of LOGI lost a proxy battle in which he had tried to oust current board chairman Becker.  (Becker was re-elected with 86% of the shareholder votes.)  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that VZ is in “advanced talks” to acquire FYBR.  (FYBR closed up almost 38% on the report.)  At the same time, LYFT announced it will stop offering standalone dockless bikes and scooters and eliminate one percent of it jobs as part of a restructuring. Later, BX announced it will buy Aussie data center company AirTrunk for $16.10 billion.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, tow of the Consumer Products Safety Commission Commissioners called for the agency to investigate two Chinese e-tailers (Temo, owned by PDD, and Shein) after products the agency has labeled “deadly baby and toddle products” were sold from the site to US customers. At the same time, the NHTSA announced it has closed an investigation into 1.3 million GM vehicles over seatbelt issues.  Later, EU antitrust regulators announced they are seeking comment on GOOGL’s proposed resolution to comply with EU fair competition rules. (The GOOGL proposal is to create a separate “product box” for competitors to be located below the GOOGL “featured products” box on its various pages.  The idea is expected to face stiff opposition from competitors.) 

Elsewhere, at the same time, a DE judge ruled JNJ owes Auris Health shareholders $1 billion in damages for breaching a 2019 agreement to acquire the private robotics developer.  Later, Reuters reported that JNJ plans to add another $1.1 billion to its settlement proposal over talc damage claims. (The previously announced settlement was $8 billion over 25 years.)  After the close, Reuters reported that ASML CEO Fouquet is pushing back against restrictions.  He told the news outlet that the US-led campaign (which the Dutch government supports) to restrict technology exports to China is “economically motivated” and that making a case for the sanctions based on national security “is getting harder and harder.” Later, HOOD agreed to pay $3.9 million to settle allegations brought by the CA Attorney General for failing to allow customers to withdraw cryptocurrency from their accounts from 2018 to 2022.

In miscellaneous news, C reported the results of its survey of 500 brokers and other firms that are involved in trade settlement.  The survey found that the shift to “T+1 settlement” had a bigger impact than expected for 44% of firms on both the buy and sell side.  Both sides also cited “stock lending” (shorting) as the most impacted and challenging.  52% reported they needed to add staff, which interestingly showed they had a preference for adding headcount rather than using automation and indicated a risk (according to C) because hiring was not scalable in short timeframes.  Meanwhile, the job openings data on Wednesday caused a shift in the Fedwatch September rate cut outlook.  On Tuesday 38% of Fed Fund Futures contracts predicted a half point cut while 62% were betting on a quarter point cut. (Zero current contracts expect no cut or a raise.)  However, as of Wednesday’s close that had shifted to 45% expecting a 50-basis point cut on the 18^th while 55% expect only the quarter-point reduction.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with seven of the 12 exchanges in the region posting gains.  Thailand (+2.94%) was by far the biggest gainer while Japan (-1.05%) was by far the big loser.  In Europe, we also see a mixed picture taking place at midday with six of the 14 exchanges above water.  The CAC (-0.28%), DAX (+0.30%), and FTSE (-0.10%) leading the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and flat start.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 3.77% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.33% to $69.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), August S&P Global Composite PMI and August Global Services PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GIII, KFY, NIO, SAIC, and TTC.  Then, after the close, AVGO and DOCU report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed members Williams and Waller (twice).

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO.

So far this morning, KFY, NIO, and SAIC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GIII missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if markets are undecided. All three major index ETFs gapped modestly higher to start the premarket. However, all three have also printed small black-body candles since then to get back to either side of flat in the early session. DIA retested its T-line, but all three remains below their 8ema. So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is still bullish (although it is being pressed hard in the QQQ) and in the long-term, remains in a Bull trend with DIA and SPY still close to all-time highs. In terms of extension, QQQ remains stretched below its T-line but the other two are not far from that average. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the middle of its mid-range. So, the market is not “too extended” but the QQQ will need a pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, TSLA (+3.03%) is by far the biggest mover both in terms of price and not far from leading in volume. (TSLA has traded nearly the same amount as that biggest dog NVDA (-0.10%) and both are about 10 times as much dollar volume traded as the next most traded ticker this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears were in control Tuesday as a traditionally weak September kicked off.  SPY gapped down 0.54%, DIA gapped down 0.50%, and QQQ gapped down 0.65%.  After that open, DIA sold off sharply for 45 minutes, SPY did the same for 80 minutes, and QQQ sold off sharply until 11 a.m.  From there, all three ground mostly sideways until 1:30 p.m. when the next leg down started and ran until the last 5 minutes.  This action gave us large, black candles with lower wicks.  All three major index ETFs crossed below their T-line (8ema), with SPY and QQQ also crossing below their 17ema while DIA bounced up off its own 17ema.  This all happened on average volume in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.92%) and Basic Materials (-3.67%) down hard and leading the way lower. Meanwhile, Communications Services (+0.66%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.30%) holding up better than others and being the only green sectors. At the same time, SPY dropped 2.06%, DIA dropped 1.43%, and QQQ dropped 3.04%.  The VXX spiked more than 20% to close at 53.54% and T2122 dropped out of its overbought territory and into the mid-range at 59.06. 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.833% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.28% to close at $70.40 per barrel.  So, Monday was “all Bears, all the time” as the post-holiday blues started in tech and spread everywhere.  NVDA (-9.53%) gapped down almost three percent but was down 4.67% by 9:35 a.m.  That one ticker also traded more than three times as much dollar-volume than the next biggest ticker (TSLA, -1.64%).  This meant technology created a tide the rest of the market could not swim against.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August S&P Global US Mfg. PMI came in a tick lower than expected at 47.9 (compared to a 48.0 forecast and 49.6 July reading).  Later, July Construction Spending remained the same, but that was not as good as anticipated at -0.3% (versus a forecast of +0.1% and June’s -0.3% value).  At the same time, August ISM Mfg. Employment was up to 46.0 (compared to July’s 43.4 number).  Meanwhile, the headline August ISM Mfg. PMI was up but still a few ticks below predictions at 47.2 (versus a 47.5 forecast but also above July’s 46.8 value).  Finally, August ISM Mfg. PMI Prices were up to 54.0 (versus a 52.1 forecast and a July reading of 52.9).

In Fed news, the San Francisco Fed released a report Tuesday that said it expects housing inflation to fall over the next year based on a study of supply and demand.  The paper indicated that this will likely add to downward pressure on overall inflation.  The report stated, “In recent months housing inflation has come down, but it remains well-above pre-pandemic levels and continues to account for a large share of overall inflation.”  The study found that by year’s end shelter inflation may drop to as low as 2%, before reverting next year to its 3.3% pre-pandemic average.  This led the report to conclude, “This will contribute downward pressure to inflation overall, although the extent and speed of this adjustment in shelter inflation is highly uncertain.”

After the close, ZS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, CPCAY (Cathay Pacific Airways) announced it has conducted an inspection of its entire EADSY (Airbus) A350 fleet after an in-flight failure of an engine part.  The inspection found 15 jets where the part needed to be replaced.  Later, STZ announced it will write down the value of its wine and spirits unit and take up to a $2.5 billion charge in the current quarter due to several weak quarters of US demand.  It also trimmed its revenue growth forecast from 6%-7% down to 4%-6%.  (STZ reports the current quarter results on 10/3.)  At the same time, CG announced it is picking banks to underwrite its $4.7 billion IPO of its Acrotec Zurich unit.  Later, Reuters reported that multiple analysts tell it INTC is likely to be dropped from the DIA after the chipmaker stock has fallen 60% this year.  (This would trigger further sales as funds that own all DIA components would be forced to sell their INTC positions.)  No timeline was given.  However, the underlying DJIA does rebalance weights at the end of each quarter.  So, September 30 would seem a logical candidate date. 

Elsewhere, at the same time, the Unite Here union announced its strike at MAR, HLT, and H hotels in Seattle and Baltimore has concluded after three days.  However, the strike at hotels from the same chains in seven other cities will continue.  In other union news, the CWA union (Communications Workers of America) withdrew from mediation with T, saying the process was just a delaying tactic by the company.  17,000 of T’s workers have been on strike for more than two weeks.  After the close, CRM announced it had agreed to acquire Tenyx (an AI-powered voice agent technology startup) for an undisclosed sum.  Also after the close, Reuters reported the US gasoline futures fell 6% Tuesday (the biggest one-day loss since July 2022) to their lowest level since December 2021.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US (Medicare) will still pay at least twice as much for the prescription drugs where it has negotiated prices for the first time compared to what other high-income countries pay.  The lower prices will save the US $6 billion in 2026 but are still far higher than many countries with national health systems pay.  At the same time, NFE announced it has received US Dept. of Energy authorization to export liquified Natural Gas to “Non-FTA” countries (i.e. countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the US).  NFE said it is expecting incremental revenue growth from its sales to Latin America, Brazil, and Jamaica for example.  Later, ABNB asked New York City to reconsider regulations for short-term rentals that went into effect a year ago.  The company said the rules had caused it major issues (an 83% decline in ABNB rental postings for stays of less than 30 days in NYC) while having virtually no impact on the apartment vacancy rate (at least according to the data ABNB cited).  After the close, the SEC announced that six credit rating agencies have agreed to pay $49 million in civil penalties over failures in recordkeeping and reporting. This includes the three major agencies MCO, SPGI, and Fitch.

In mortgage news, this morning the Mortgage Bankes Assn. released its weekly look at the mortgage market. This week, they report mortgage refinance demand is up 94% as compared to one year ago as interest rates (modestly) continued to fall.  (However, this was down three-tenths of a percent from the week before.)  The national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan mortgage was a 6.43% last week, down one tick from the week before.  New home purchase loan mortgage applications were also up 3% for the week, but that was still 4% lower than one year prior.  Overall, this led to a 1.6% increase in mortgage applications from the previous week.

Overnight, NVDA (as well as other companies) was subpoenaed by the US Justice Dept.  This is part of a DOJ investigation into NVDA violating antitrust laws by making it harder for companies to switch suppliers of AI-accelerator processing units.  The investigation also is looking into NVDA sales practices that financially penalize buyers that don’t exclusively use NVDA chips.  (NVDA is far and away to market leader in this space with AMD the only competitor of significance although INTC has just recently announced a chip to compete in that space.)  Previously, DOJ had sent questionnaires to many companies in the AI space, but these are legally-binding information requests.

Also overnight, Asian markets were heavily in the red with only two of the 12 regional exchanges hanging onto green territory.  Taiwan (-4.52%), Japan (-4.24%), and South Korea (-3.15%) all suffered badly on the big chip losses in reaction to the US Tuesday leading the region lower.  In Europe, we also see a red picture with just two of the 14 bourses in the green at midday. The CAC (-0.89%), DAX (-0.77%), and FTSE (-0.57%) are leading the region down in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward some follow-through on Tuesday’s losses.  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.45% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.81% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 3.81% and Oil (ETI) has popped back 1.09% to $71.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes July Exports, July Imports, and July Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), July Factory Orders and July JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.), Fed Beige Books (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include, CIEN, CNM, DKS, DLTR, HRL, and REVG.  Then, after the close, CASY, CPRT, and HPE report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, August S&P Global Composite PMI, August Global Services PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed members Williams and Waller (twice).

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, GIII, KFY, NIO, SAIC, TTC, AVGO, and DOCU report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO.

So far this morning, CIEN and DKS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HRL and REVG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, DLTR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks as if the Bears continue to have control in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down to start the early session. However, since that point SPY and QQQ have printed very indecisive (wick heavy) premarket candles while DIA is more decisive, but still a small candle. All three are now well below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is still bullish (although it is being pressed hard in the QQQ) and in the long-term, remains in a Bull trend with DIA and SPY still close to all-time highs. In terms of extension, QQQ is stretched below its T-line but the other two are not far from that average. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in the middle of its mid-range. So, the market is not “too extended” but the QQQ will need a pause, bounce, or reversal soon to avoid becoming out of whack in its decline. Just remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning with only AMD (+1.76%) in the green. However, the the biggest dog NVDA (-1.59%) is out front leading the way lower on heavy volume (6.5 times the volume of the second heaviest dollar-volume so far today). Part of this is the news that yesterday’s drubbing took $300 billion off NVDA’s market cap and the weak hands are still abandoning ship.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a volatile, bullish day to end the pre-holiday week and month.  SPY gapped 0.45%, DIA opened 0.17% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.90%.   After the open, all three major index ETFs traded sideways until 10:50 a.m.  At that point, all three sold off, reaching the lows of the day at 12:40 p.m.  From there, all three rallied the rest of the day, spiking to new highs the last 10 minutes.  This action gave us white-bodied, Hammer-type candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three retested and passed the test of their t-line (8ema) as support and closed at the top end of their candles. This happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY, slightly below-average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the DIA. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+1.07%) and Technology (+1.03%) leading the way higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.03%) lagged and was the only sector in the red. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.95%, DIA gained 0.56%, and QQQ gained 1.19%. The VXX fell 3.01% to close at a very low 44.50% and T2122 rose slightly to remain in the top half of its overbought territory at 93.18. 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.909% while Oil (WTI) fell a bit to close at $75.55 per barrel.  So, Friday ended the week (and month) on another strong note. DIA printed yet another new all-time high and all-time high close.  For its part, QQQ also crossed back above its 50sma. 

For the week, SPY gained 0.28% and DIA gained 1.06% on their fourth consecutive week of gains.  Meanwhile, QQQ lost 0.78% on a Bearish Harami that retested and stayed above its T-line while printing the its first down week after three weeks of gains.   Looking at the month, SPY was up 2.34% on a white Hammer or Hanging Man that retested and passed the test of the monthly T-line.  DIA did the same on a 1.89% monthly gain and QQQ also followed suit on a 1.10% increase.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included July Year-on-Year Core PCE Price Index, which stayed flat at +2.6% (compared to a forecast of +2.7% and June’s 2.6% value). On a Month-on-Month basis, July Core PCE Price Index, was flat at 0.2% (versus the forecast and June reading which were both +0.2%).  On the headline side, the July PCE Price Index (Year-on-Year) also came in flat at +2.5% (lower than the +2.6% forecast but in-line with the June reading of 2.5%).  On the monthly basis, the headline July PCE Price Index was just like the Core numbers, flat at 0.2% (versus the forecast and June reading which were both +0.2%).  Meanwhile, the July Personal Spending was up, as predicted at +0.5% (compared to a +0.5% forecast and June’s +0.3% reading).  Later, the August Chicago PMI was stronger than predicted at 46.1 (versus a 45.0 forecast and July’s 45.3 value).  Shortly afterward, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported as up and also a tick better than predicted at 67.9 (compared to a 67.8 forecast and July’s 66.4 reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were up and in-line with forecasts at 72.1 (versus a July value of 68.8).  On the inflation front, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were down a tick to 2.8% (compared to a forecast and previous reading of 2.9%).  Looking further out, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations stayed flat at 3.0% (compared to a forecast and prior value of 3.0%).

In stock news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that a large-scale study started during the pandemic found that NVO’s weight loss and diabetes drug Wegovy also reduced both deaths and hospitalizations from Covid-19.  At the same time, NSC announced it had reached tentative 5-year labor contracts with five unions covering thousands of its employees.  The contracts, which provide a 3.5% average annual wage increase as well as more paid time off and better healthcare must still be ratified by members of the unions.  Later, GM and LAC “agreed to delay” an additional investment from GM into the lithium miner until the end of the year.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the Chinese state-backed Sinochem is planning to sell its 40% stake in a shale oil joint venture it is part of with XOM.  The sale would end an 11-year Sinochem involvement in the shale oil business in the TX Permian Basin. 

After the close, GS announced it will lay off “a few hundred” employees as part of its annual performance review process. (In 2023, this process resulted in between 1% and 5% of its staff being let go.)  GS said this is normal and it still expects to have more employees at the end of 2024 than it did at the end of 2023.  (GS had 44,300 employees as of June 30.)  At the same time, BRKB filed with the SEC, saying it had sold another 21.1 million shares of BAC for $845 million between August 28 and August 30.  (This makes more than $6 billion of BAC that Buffett’s BRKB has sold during August.)  On Sunday, 10k hotel workers went on strike against 24 locations run by MAR, H, and HLT hotels.  The union said the strike will be multi-day and will be rolling (on-again, off-again) to cause maximum disruption until a new contract has been reached.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, India approved the $8.5 billion merger between DIS’s Indian unit and Reliance Industries.  Later, China announced that TSLA is recalling 870 imported TSLA vehicles.  At the same time, RTX agreed to pay a $200 million fine to settle allegations that the company violated US export laws by shipping product and data to prohibited countries (China).  (Among other violations, RTX gave China details about an aluminum instrument display component of the F-22 fighter aircraft.)  Later, the FDA authorized the use of NVAX’s COVID vaccine, which had been updated to fight the new JN.1 variant of the disease.  At the same time, CAH, MCK, and COR (the three largest US drug distributors) agreed to pay $300 million to resolve claims by health insurers that the companies had helped fuel the opioid crisis.   (The same companies had agreed to pay $21 billion to states and local governments to settle the same charges.)  

Elsewhere, after the close, CTLT reported that it is unable to file its annual report (which was expected on August 29) while it is waiting on the closing of the $16.5 billion takeover by NVO that was announced in February.  On Saturday, the NHTSA announced F will recall almost 91k vehicles over engine valve intakes that may break during operation.  (F will perform tests on each vehicle and replace engines as required as part of the remedy.)  On Monday, HPQ said it would continue its $4 billion lawsuit against now-deceased British billionaire Mike Lynch related to what it alleges was fraudulently-inflated value of a company HPQ acquired from Lynch in 2011.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday Bloomberg reported that the level of conviction in the economy is soaring.  It reported that August was the fourth straight month of gains in ETFs tracking for government debt, corporate debt, and equities.  That was the longest consecutive stretch of correlated gains across those assets since 2007.  At the same time, the S&P 500 is up 25% in the past 12 months…that most it has climbed in the run up to a first rate cut in history.  So, the Fed got it right and we got the soft landing we had all hoped would happen.  Elsewhere, in a deeper-dive into PCE data, Bloomberg reported that the metric economists say is a more accurate gauge of inflation, the 3-month annualized average, showed a 1.7% increase…the slowest since 2023. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only four of the 12 regional exchanges in the green.  With that said, the big movers were green as Shenzhen (+1.17%) and Thailand (+0.81%) led the gains and Taiwan (-0.64%) and South Korea (-0.61%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we nearly see red across the board with just two of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.23%), DAX (-0.38%), and FTSE (-0.48%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.48% open, the SPY is implying a -0.53% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.76% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bonds are up to 3.911% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.9% to $72.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August S&P Global US Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), July Construction Spending, August ISM Mfg. Employment, August ISM Mfg. PMI, and August ISM Mfg. PMI Prices (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  Then, after the close, the only significant report scheduled is ZS.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get July Exports, July Imports, July Trade Balance, July Factory Orders, July JOLTs Job Openings, Fed Beige Books, and API Weekly Crude Stocks. The Thursday, August ADM Nonfarm Employment Change, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, August S&P Global Composite PMI, August Global Services PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get August Avg. Hourly Earnings, August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, and the August Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed members Williams and Waller (twice).

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday we hear from CIEN, CNM, DKS, DLTR, HRL, REVG, CASY, CPRT, and HPE.  Then Thursday, GIII, KFY, NIO, SAIC, TTC, AVGO, and DOCU report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABM, BIG, DOOO, and GCO.

With that background, QQQ gapped lower to start the premarket session and has printed an indecisive, black-body candle since then that did more price back below its T-line (8ema) as that retest begins again. Meanwhile, SPY and DIA opened the early session more or less flat before trading decidedly bearish in larger black-body candles. (To be fair, both are still not down to a retest of their T-line. So the damage is not heavy.) So, the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend with DIA sitting just below all-time highs on the pre-market pullback and SPY less than a percent from its own high-water mark. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is in the top half of its overbought territory. So, the market could use a pause or pullback. However, remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning with the the biggest dog NVDA (-2.03%) out front leading the way lower the second biggest TSLA (+0.76%) holding up by far the best.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a crazy roller coaster ride.  SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA gapped up a whopping 0.73%, and QQQ gapped up 0.39%.  From there, SPY and QQQ slowly and steadily rallied to the high of the day at 12:50 p.m.  Then both gave us 70 minutes of mostly sideways action.  Then the floor fell out as both SPY and QQQ sold off fast to recross their opening gaps and hit the lows about 2:50 p.m.  Then the rest of the day the Bulls and Bears duked it out in chop along the lows.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA immediately faded its opening gap, bounced up off of Wednesday’s closing price at 10 a.m. and rallied sharply until 12:30 p.m. before trading sideways in a tight range until 2:25 p.m.  At that point, it followed the other major index ETFs and sold off for 15 minutes, back down into the opening gap. From there, just like the broader index ETFs, DIA saw the Bulls and Bears chop along the afternoon lows.  At day end, DIA printed a new all-time high and a new all-time high close.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.95%) leading the way higher.  On the other side, Communications Services (-0.54%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.47%) were the two losing sectors.  At the same time, SPY eked out a 0.01% gain, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ lost 0.15%.  The VXX fell 3.57% to close at a very low 45.88% and T2122 popped back up into the top half of its overbought range at 92.57.  10-year bond yields rose to close at 3.865% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.85% to close at $75.90 per barrel.  So, Thursday was quite a whiplash with gaps higher, morning rallies, and an afternoon selloff.  All three major index ETFs printed indecisive, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles with SPY retesting and holding above its T-line (8ema) while QQQ retested from below and failed that test.  (Obviously, at its all-time highs, DIA remains well above its T-line.)  This happened on above-average volume in the DIA, average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in slightly below expectations at 231k (compared to a 232k forecast and the prior week 233k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up to 1,868k (below the forecast of 1,870k, but up from the prior week 1,855k).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 GDP was stronger than anticipated (revised up) at +3.0% (versus a forecast of +2.8% and far better than Q1’s +1.4%).  On the cost of growth side, the Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index was two ticks higher than predicted at +2.5% (compared to a +2.3% forecast, but down significantly from Q1’s +3.1%).  At the same time, July Goods Trade Balance was worse than expected at -$102.66 billion (versus a forecasted -$97.70 billion and the prior month’s -$96.56 billion).  In terms of inventories, Preliminary July Retail Inventories were up two ticks to +0.5% (compared to a June +0.3% reading).  Later, July Pending Home Sales came in EXTREMELY LOW at -5.5% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and drastically down from June’s +4.8% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a strong decline of $71 billion to $7.123 trillion.

After the close, ADSK, DELL, GAP, and MRVL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LULU missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, AMRK and ULTA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

After the close, AFRM, COO, CRWD, FIVE, NTAP, NTNX, NVDA, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, GEF, GES, and HPQ all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Thursday, UBER announced it will invest in UK startup Wayve to help them work with major automakers to accelerate its self-driving technology.  (The size of the investment was not disclosed.) Later, Bloomberg reported that Samsung is exploring options to acquire at least some of NOK assets.  At the same time, Japan’s Nippon Steel announced it plans to invest and additional $1.3 billion in two of X’s steel mills (assuming their acquisition is approved).  Later, OKE announced it would buy $5.9 billion worth of mid-stream assets, including a 43% stake in ENLC to bolster its Permian Basin and mid-continent competitive position. At the same time, the Teamster union said that AMZN workers across GA, CA, KY, and NY will be joining the 100 AMZN drivers from IL that have been striking since June. 

Meanwhile, MRO shareholders voted in favor of COP’s $16 billion acquisition.  Later, Reuters reported that DELL is attempting to sell its SecureWorks cybersecurity unit again.  (DELL failed to find a buyer for the unit in 2019 and 2020.)  At the same time, Reuters also reported that AAPL and NVDA are both in talks about joining the next round of funding of OpenAI as they seek to gain (AAPL) or improve (NVDA) their AI offerings.  After hours, Reuters reported that bearish leveraged ETFs tied to NVDA saw a +446% surge in buying (net long the levered bearish bet on NVDA) between NVDA’s May 21 earnings and its reported Wednesday evening.  (This could be coincidence or indicate a change in sentiment on the market leader.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, EIX announced it will seek CA Public Utilities Commission approval of a settlement agreement related to 2017 and 2018 natural disasters.  If approved, EIX might be able to recover $1.6 of the $2.7 billion in losses it paid.  Later, a LMT and RTX joint venture was awarded a $1.3 billion contract to produce Javelin missiles for the US Army. Meanwhile, the US 6^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against GM, saying the company must face a class-action lawsuit related to selling 800,000 vehicles with faulty transmissions.  After the close, LUNR announced it had won a $117 million contract from NASA. 

Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that the Netherlands plans to limit ASML’s ability to repair and maintain its equipment that had been sold to China, by not renewing the licenses required for ASML to do that business when they expire at year end.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the Pentagon is withholding $5 million per F-35 jet as deliveries of those jets has resumed.  The price per jet is $82.5 million and withholding $5 million is intended to push LMT to solve the problems that had caused a months-long stoppage of F-35 deliveries.  (F-35s account for 27% of LMT sales.)  Later, NDAQ agreed to pay $22 million to settle CFTC charges that its former energy contract unit failed to perks offered to certain traders as well as making false and misleading statements to the regulator. 

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, two AI startups (OpenAI and Anthropic) signed deals with the US government for “research, testing, and evaluation of AI safety.”  At the same time, Freddie Mac reported that the national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rate fell to 6.35%.  This was the lowest average since early May 2023.  Later, rating agency Fitch issued a report saying that US fiscal policy is unlikely to change, regardless of which major candidate wins the Presidential election.  This was released as part of the agency affirming the US credit rating of AA+. 

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Shenzhen (+2.38%) was way out front leading the region higher, followed by Malaysia (+1.53%), Hong Kong (+1.14%), and Singapore (+1.13%).  In Europe, we see a similar but not clean sweep as three of the smaller bourses (out of 14) show red at midday.  The CAC (+0.34%), DAX (+0.17%), and FTSE (+0.26%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move higher ahead of PCE data.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.75% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down slightly to 3.858% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $75.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes July Core PCE Price Index, July PCE Price Index, and July Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Aug Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to JKS and MNSO.  Then, after the close, there are no significant reports scheduled.

So far this morning, JKS and MNSO missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FRO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket session. However, all three have also printed small-body, indecisive candles since that point as traders wait on PCE data. The gap took QQQ back above its T-line, so all three are above their respective 8ema at this point. So, the short-term trend is still bullish. At the same time, the mid-term trend is bullish and in the long-term, we are now clearly back in a Bull trend with DIA sitting at all-time highs and SPY less than a percent from its high-water mark. In terms of extension, SPY and QQQ are fine relative to their T-line, but DIA is getting a little stretched above its own. In addition, the T2122 indicator has popped back up into the top half of its overbought territory. So, the market could use a pause or pullback. However, remember the mantra “follow, don’t lead, but also don’t chase” in mind. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning with the INTC (+3.18%) out front and AAPL (+0.52%) the laggard. With all of this said, remember its Friday, pay day, and we are at month end as well as sitting in front of a 3-day weekend. So, prepare your account for the holiday weekend news cycles and don’t forget to take profits.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service