Friday saw an open modestly higher in the market.  The SPY gapped up 0.18%, the DIA opened just 0.01% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.18%.  However, the Bulls were just getting started in the SPY and QQQ, starting a rally that lasted until 2:30 p.m. with modest profit taking the last 90 minutes of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA sold off the first 30 minutes before starting a more modest rally that lasted until 2:15 p.m.  Like its larger brother index ETFs, DIA took very modest profits in the last 105 minutes.  This action led to gap-up, large white-bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ.  Both could be said to be “Trader’s Best Friend” signals as they gapped up from indecisive, Doji-like candles.  In addition, both broke out of their pullback printing both new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.  At the same time, DIA bounced up off its T-line (8ema) and printed a Bullish Engulfing candle.  DIA did not print a new all-time high but only missed a new all-time high close by two cents.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green as technology (+2.94%) way, way out in front (by 1.61%) leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Utilities (-0.34%) was the only sector really in the red since Consumer Defensive (-0.02%) was more-or-less flat.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.94%, the DIA gained 0.35%, and the tech-heavy QQQ gained 1.51%.  VXX gained a mere 0.29% to close at 13.60 and T2122 jumped back up into the oversold territory at 88.49.  10-year bond yields fell back to 4.186% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to close at $79.81 per barrel.  So, Friday saw another day of rallies led by AI names.  AMD (+5.25%) and NVDA (+4.00%) did a lot of the lifting, but INTC (+1.79%) and META (+2.48%) helped also. 

The major economic news released Friday included S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in stronger than expected at 52.2 (compared to a 51.5 forecast and the previous 50.7 reading).  Later, January Construction Spending was well below anticipated at -0.2% (versus the +0.2% forecast and the December +1.1% value).  At the same time, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment fell to a 45.9 index (compared to the January 47.1 reading).  As for the headline number, the February ISM Mfg. PMI also came in low at 47.8 (missing the 49.5 forecast and falling from the January 49.1 number).  However, the Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index also fell to 52.5 (versus a forecast of 53.5 and the January 52.9 index reading).  Meanwhile, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment was below predicted at 76.9 (compared to a 79.6 forecast and the prior 79.0 value).  The Michigan Consumer Expectations were also below what was anticipated at 75.2 (versus a 78.4 forecast and a 77.1 previous reading).  As for the future, the Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations came in as expected at 3.0% (compared to a 3.0% forecast and up a tick from the previous 2.9% value).  Over the longer term, Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations remain steady at 2.9% (versus the 2.9% forecast and 2.9% previous reading). 

In Fed news, Cleveland Fed President Mester called for changes to the Fed Discount Window policies (which would impact the entire banking sector). Mester said, “Testing at this time is not mandatory (she meant except for the largest banks), but I support requiring such testing as part of sound liquidity management.”  She continued, “It is also worth considering requiring banks to pre-position collateral at the window in proportion to their short-term runnable funding, including uninsured deposits, so they would be ready to borrow at the discount window should that funding start to run.”  At the same time, Richmond Fed President Barkin told CNBC that it was too soon to predict when rate cuts will begin.  Barkin said, “I’m still hopeful inflation is going to come down and if inflation normalizes then it makes the case for why you want to normalize rates, but to me, it starts with inflation.” He also said he still sees “wage pressures, I still see inflation pressures (and) we just had a high inflation report yesterday.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller indicated that Fed Balance Sheet decisions have nothing to do with rate policy. Waller said, “Balance sheet plans are about getting liquidity levels right.”…“They do not imply anything about the stance of interest rate policy, which is focused on influencing the macroeconomy and achieving our dual mandate.”  At the same time (but a different event), Dallas Fed President Logan said, “When (Fed Balance Sheet) balances approach a low level, it will be appropriate to slow the pace of asset runoff.”  She continued, “(When the balance sheet hits zero) there will be more uncertainty about how much excess liquidity remains.” … “I don’t think we can identify the (right) level in advance. We’ll need to feel our way to it by observing money market spreads and volatility.” Finally, Fed Governor Kugler indicated she sees a soft landing.  Kugler said, “I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market.”  She continued, “We have seen inflation cool significantly, falling more rapidly than at any time since the 1980s…Yet unemployment remains near the lowest levels seen only a few times since the 1960s.”

In stock news, on Friday, VSTO confirmed that it had received an unsolicited $35 per share ($2.9 billion) takeover offer from MNC Capital.  At the same time, BA announced it would delay plans to ramp up 737 production.  In another BA development, it was reported Friday that BA is in talks to buy its struggling fuselage supplier (and former subsidiary) SPR in an attempt to resolve some of its 737 MAX quality problems.  At the same time, Reuters reported that NSANY (Nissan) is in advanced talks on investing $400 million in electric vehicle maker FSR.  At day end, NVDA closed above the $2 trillion market cap for the first time.  Meanwhile, CNI announced it had reached a tentative 3-year deal with the United Steelworkers union covering 2,500 of its employees.  At the same time, CVX announced it would idle two midwestern biodiesel plants due to poor market conditions.  (The plants were part of 11 plants bought in 2022 with the purchase of REGI for $3.15 billion.)  Later, NVDA CEO Huang told a conference that he believes, based on the current rate of development, AI “general intelligence” could arrive in five years or less.  Specifically, Huang said, “If I gave an AI every single (human) test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I’m guessing in five years’ time, we’ll do well on every single one.”  After hours Friday, SMCI was chosen to join the S&P500, replacing WHR.  At the same time, it was announced that DECK will also join, replacing ZION.  On Saturday, an NSC freight train derailed in PA, spilling diesel fuel and plastic pellets into the nearby Lehigh River.

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, on Friday, BA agreed to pay $51 million for violating export controls over military technology.  The violations included employees in China downloading sensitive data from numerous aircraft (including the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter) and missiles.  At the same time, both SPOT and industry groups told the EU competition regulators that AAPL’s proposed changes to its app store policies disregard EU law and simply amplify its dominance over app developers.  Later, AAPL countered by telling Reuters that “both government agencies and users have concerns about the non-app store loading of apps causing security issues.” At the same time, the FDA announced it would allow GIS and DANOY (and other dairy companies) to advertise the claim that yogurt may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes.  Later, the FAA announced it would mandate a fix for a BA 737 MAX design flaw that may disable the jet’s engine anti-ice system.  At the same time, a federal judge upheld a law that requires drugmakers to negotiate prices with Medicare, rejecting the challenge of AZN.  Later, ADM reported to the SEC that it expects to correct financial statements that previously misstated interunit sales by March 15.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that GM is recalling 820k (570k in the US, 240k in Canada) 2020-2024 pickup trucks related to an issue with their tailgates.  Later, the FDA gave full approval to a JNJ lung cancer chemotherapy.  At the same time, a US district court dismissed a 2022 class-action lawsuit that had been brought against MOLN.  After the close, the state of CA approved a GOOGL Waymo proposal to expand its robotaxi fleet in the Los Angeles and San Francisco markets.  Later, the WTO won approval for its moratorium on tariffs on digital transmissions (e-commerce) until 2026.  This was a huge win for GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, and others.  Elsewhere, a US appeals court ruled that the federal government can swap thousands of acres of land with RIO.  The swap will enable RIO to build a copper mine on what Native Americans consider sacred land.  At the same time, BAYRY (Bayer) won a lawsuit brought by an AR family who claimed the mother had developed cancer from exposure to the company’s Roundup weedkiller.  Later, a TX homeowner filed suit against XEL, alleging that the utility’s equipment had started the wildfire raging across the Texas panhandle.  At the same time, the FL Gov. vetoed a bill banning social media for anyone under 16 years old.  Meanwhile, a US District judge ruled GOOGL must face a proposed class-action lawsuit claiming it monopolizes the ad exchange market.  Late Friday, the European Commission said BKNG (along with Musk’s X and TikTok) may be designated gatekeepers, subjecting it to strict rules.  (GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL, META, and MSFT were given that designation in 2023.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Taiwan (+1.95%) and South Korea (+1.21%) were by far the biggest movers in the region as Singapore (-0.43%) was the biggest loser.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses lean toward the red side with just five of the 15 exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.09%), DAX (-0.07%), and FTSE (-0.49%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open not far from flat.  The DIA implies a -0.26% open, the SPY is implying a -0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.04% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.205% and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent to $79.46 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Fed member Harker speaking at 11 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to SE.  Then, after the close, CRGY and SAIC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Feb. S&P Global Service PMI, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan. Factory Orders, Fed ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Feb. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, Feb. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  We also hear from Fed Vice-Chair Barr (noon and 3:30 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Jan. JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book are reported. Fed Chair Powell testifies, and Fed member Daly also speaks.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Jan. Imports, Jan. Exports, Jan. Trade Balance, Final Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Final Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Jan. Consumer Credit, Fed Balance Sheet.  Fed Chair Powell also testifies and Fed member Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday, Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Unemployment, Feb. Participation Rate, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.  Fed member Williams also speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from, GBTG, FERG, NIO, TGT, VVX, BBAR, CRWD, JWN, and ROST.  Then Wednesday, ANF, CPB, SID, FL, JD, KFY, REVG, THO, UNFI, YSG, SUPV, and VSCO report.  On Thursday, we hear from ABM, AEO, BIG, BILI, BJ, BURL, CIEN, YMM, KR, TTC, AVGO, COST, DOCU, GPS, LVRO, MRVL, PBR, and RBT.  Finally, on Friday, AQN and GCO report.

In miscellaneous news, social media company Reddit is seeking a $6.5 billion valuation from its upcoming IPO.  The company announced plans to initially price shares between $31 and $34 per share according to the Wall Street Journal.  (Reddit will list under the ticker RDDT when the IPO goes live.)   Elsewhere, the Senate and Congressional leader unveiled the first six (of 12) spending packages (budgets) that are meant to fund half the government through September 30.  Both Houses have until Friday to pass these six (1,050 pages) to avoid the first of Speaker Johnson’s “two cliffs.”  On the geopolitical front, the US began airdrops of humanitarian (mostly food) aid to Gaza over the weekend.  The first successful “test drop” included 38,000 meals.  For reference, there are at least 650k people without food in Gaza with the potential of that growing to as much as 2.3 million if the Israeli invasion and associated restrictions on aid continue.  The point is, we would need to do at least 20 such drops per day to stop the famine now taking place.

In late-breaking news, the European Commission fined AAPL $1.95 billion early today for its antitrust practices related to its app store over 10 years.  The original plaintiff was SPOT and industry groups representing numerous other app developers.  (The EU investigation began in 2019, indicating the behemoth tech company’s ability to stall.)  The appeal of this fine could last months.  

So far this morning, SE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that while the company still reported a loss, the earnings were almost 35% better than expected.

With that background, it looks as if there is indecision among the three major index ETFs this morning. The QQQ is printing a small, white-body candle in the premarket and looking to add to Friday’s record prices. The DIA is the worst of the three and although it too is printing a small-body candle in the early session, it gapped lower and looks like it wants to retest the T-line from above again. Meanwhile, the SPY is somewhere in between, giving us a small-body, white candle inside the top of Friday’s record-breaking candle body. It may be worth noting that the T-line of all three are rising again. So, the short-term trend remains bullish and the longer-term strong bullish trend continues to hang on (despite being tested). In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line, but the T2122 indicator is in the middle of its overbought range. So, both the Bulls and Bears both have room to run if they can gather the momentum. However, the Bears have more slack to work with. Looking at those 10 Big Dog tech names, the Bulls have a slight edge so far this morning. Six of the 10 are green with NVDA, AMD, and INTC leading the way. As you might expect, based on the late-breaking fine news, AAPL is leading the pack lower along with TSLA.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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The market opened lower to start the day on Wednesday.  The SPY gapped down 0.31%, DIA gapped down 0.46%, and QQQ gapped down 0.49%.  After that open, both of the large-cap index ETFs spent the day meandering back and forth inside their opening gap.  Meanwhile, QQQ meandered around its opening level all day.  This action gave us gap-down candles across the board with SPY and DIA having white bodies while QQQ gave us a back body Doji.  In fact, both SPY and QQQ were indecisive candles while DIA was a larger white-body candle.  At the same time, DIA and QQQ retested and held above their T-line (8ema) while SPY did not quite get down to that level.  Once again, this came on well below-average volume across the board.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red as Energy (-0.82%), and Healthcare (-0.76%) leading the way lower while Industrials (+0.13%) and Utilities (+0.09%) were the only sectors to get back into the green.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.13%, the DIA lost 0.02%, and the tech-heavy QQQ lost 0.53%.  VXX gained 1.63% to close at 13.75 and T2122 dropped back further into its mid-range at 60.45.  10-year bond yields fell back to 4.266% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.74% to close at $78.29 per barrel.  So, we saw a gap down Wednesday (even before data was released in premarket).  However, after that, it was another blah day with some “fading the gap” leading to not much overall change for the session.

The major economic news released Wednesday included Q4 GDP, which came in slightly lower than expected at +3.2% (compared to a forecast of +3.3% and well down from the Q3 +4.9%).  At the same time, the Q4 GDP Price Index came in higher than anticipated at +1.7% (versus a +1.5% forecast and the Q3 value of +3.3%). Meanwhile, the January Goods Trade Balance was worse than expected at -$90.20 billion (versus the -$88.40 billion forecast and the December -$88.46 billion reading).  Later, January Retail Inventories grew less than predicted at +0.3% (compared to December’s +0.4% value).  Then at EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories grew much more than expected at +4.199 million barrels (versus a forecast of +3.100 million barrels and the prior week’s +3.514 million barrels). 

In Fed news, Boston Fed President Collins joined the “not so fast” chorus from the Fed as she indicated she is less confident in rate cuts…especially early ones.  Collins said, “I believe it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy later this year.”  She continued, “When this happens, a methodical, forward-looking approach to reducing rates gradually should provide the necessary flexibility to manage risks, while promoting stable prices and maximum employment.”  She concluded, “It will be important to see sustained, broadening signs of progress toward the Fed’s dual mandate goals – while recognizing that progress may be uneven.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams sounded similarly, but maybe a bit closer to being ready for rate cuts.  He said, “While the economy has come a long way toward achieving better balance and reaching our 2% inflation goal, we are not there yet.”  However, Williams also said, “My view is that something like the three-rate-cuts-this-year projection from December is a reasonable kind of starting point.”  He added, “as we navigate the remainder of this journey, I will be focused on the data, the economic outlook, and the risks, in evaluating the appropriate path for monetary policy that best achieves our goals.”  Finally, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he is “penciling in” a first cut this summer.

In stock news, META announced it will release the newest version of its AI model (Llama 3) in July.  Later, CTNG announced it is considering “strategic alternatives” to enhance shareholder value.  At the same time, BXRX filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.  Later, EXLS announced it had launched an AI solution based on AMZN cloud services for data analytics.  Separately, EXLS announced it had partnered with MSFT to offer industry-specific AI solutions.  At the same time, BRKR announced it had reached a definitive agreement to buy private ELITechGroup for more than $943 million.  The deal is set to be completed in Q2.  Later, QUIK announced it had been awarded a contract to provide low-power chip solutions to a primary defense contractor.  (No details were released.)  At the same time, after being crushed in the media following comments by the CEO that it will implement “surge pricing” WEN issued multiple statements on Wednesday afternoon that it has no plans to implement dynamic or surge pricing.  (So, the statements are saying the CEO lied on an investor call.)  Later, Reuters reported (exclusively) that FI and AMADF are both bidding to buy FOUR for around $6.5 billion.  At the same time, PWFL and MIXT announced their boards have approved a merger set for the first week of April.  Elsewhere, it was announced that SCTL will be acquired by a private firm for $1.10 per share.  The deal is set to close in Q2.  At the same time, EA announced a restructuring that will reduce its workforce by 5%.  Later, FBMS said it had approved a $50 million buyback program.  At the same time, PTLO announced a secondary offering of 8 million shares (with underwriters having options to buy another 1.2 million shares).  Later, the hacking group that penetrated UNH, causing the slow prescription deliveries last week, posted a note Wednesday saying they had stolen millions of medical insurance and health data records.  However, the group deleted the post later.  After the close, AAPL CEO Cook said the company will announce its AI plans later this year.  Also after the close, SHEL’s solar subsidiary Savion has put 25% of its assets up for sale with the help of JEF.  Finally, BUD and the Teamster union have reached an agreement that will avert a strike that was planned for midnight Thursday.  (The deal increases pay by $4/hour immediately and $8/hour over the contract.  In addition, workers will get a $2,500 signing bonus and increased vacation.)

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, on Wednesday, the FAA gave BA 90 days to come up with a new comprehensive quality control plan after inspections found profound shortcomings in the company’s safety and quality programs.  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a $2.3 billion lawsuit by 32 European media groups who allege they suffered losses due to GOOGL’s digital advertising practices.  Later, AMAT received more subpoenas from the SEC related to shipments to China.  At the same time, the FDA cleared SPRO to begin phase 2 trials for an intravenous antibiotic treatment.  Later, the state of NY filed suit against JBSAY (the world’s largest beef producer) alleging the company has misled the public about its claimed plan to reach zero greenhouse emissions by 2040.  (The ridiculous suit seeks a $5k fine.  JBSAY generated $53.5 billion in revenue in just the first 9 months of 2023.)  At the same time, the FDA gave NVRO clearance for its SI-joint fusion device.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported the US dept. of Justice has opened an investigation into BA’s door plug blowout incident about whether or not the company has upheld its obligations under a Deferred Prosecution Agreement from previous wrongdoing.  After the close, FCC Chair Rosenworcel proposed a rule that would require automakers that sell internet-connected cars to comply with a telecommunication law intended to protect domestic violence survivors (from stalking and remote access to vehicles).  Finally, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 338k SUV vehicles over front-end suspension parts that could become loose.

After the close, AMC, GEF, MYRG, NTNX, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, and SNOW reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BBSI, HPQ, PARA, and SBGI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, JAZZ, STN, and TPC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CODI, EFXT, MNST, and PARAA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that NTNX and OKTA raised forward guidance.  However, PSTG, SBGI, SNOW, and TPC lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five exchanges in the red and seven in the green.  Shenzhen (+3.13%) and Shanghai (+1.94%) far outpaced the rest of the region while Thailand (-0.82%) was by far the biggest loser on the day.  In Europe, we see a greener picture taking shape at midday with 10 of the 15 exchanges in the green.  The CAC (-0.04%), DAX (+0.47%), and FTSE (+0.31%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.31% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.307% and Oil (WTI) is just ion the green side of flat at $78.64 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Core PCE Price Index, and Jan. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Feb. Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Jan. Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.), and three Fed speakers (Bostic at 10:50 a.m., Mester at 1:15 p.m., and Williams (8:10 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BUD, BBWI, BBY, BCO, CNQ, COMM, CPG, CRH, XRAY, DDL, DOLE, NVRI, ESAB, EVRG, GMS, HGV, HRL, IHRT, MLCO, NTES, NFE, NOMD, PZZA, PSNY, TD, and TGNA.  Then, after the close, ADSK, COO, DELL, EC, GRBK, MTZ, NTAP, PTVE, TTEC, VEEV, and ZS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Jan. Construction Spending, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and two Fed speakers (Bostic at 10 a.m. and Daly at 1:30 p.m.) are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AMRX reports.

In miscellaneous news, in a surprise move, Democratic and Republican leaders from both sides of the aisle in both chambers of Congress announced they have reached a deal on the 12 different annual spending bills.  These measures cover the previous five months and the next seven months. (Better late than never, I guess.) However, to avert a partial government shutdown on Saturday, and even though they say they have agreed, both the House and Senate will need to pass another temporary stop-gap spending bill to keep the lights on until the entire House (which is where the problem is) and Senate can vote on the 12 bills.  This gives the GOP obstructionists (MAGA) in the House time to trash the deal (whose details are not known) and attempt to kill the deal.  At the moment, the agreement calls for six of the funding bills to be passed by March 8 and the other six to be passed on March 22.  However, this is one of those, “I’ll believe it when I see it…and the ink is dry” deals.

In late-breaking news, the main fire in the Texas panhandle (Smokehouse Creek fire) has now consumed 900,000 acres.  Separately, the Windy Deuce fire has burned 142,000 acres and the Vine Creek fire has charred 30,000 acres.  The toll is not yet known, but at least thousands of cattle and 100 or more homes have been destroyed.  Meanwhile, in Europe, consumer rights groups have accused META of massive and illegal (per EU law) collection and processing of user data on Thursday.  The group of 45 consumer organizations filed complaints with both national and EU-wide regulatory bodies.  The data in question can be used to infer sexual orientation, emotional state, and even the person’s susceptibility to addiction.

So far this morning, ITCL, BBWI, BBY, CM, CNQ, XRAY, DDL, NVRI, ESAB, HRL, NFE, and TD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, ACIW, ABEV, BUD, BCO, CRH, DOLE, NOMD, and PZZA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ADV and BTSG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CPG, EVRG, GMS, and NTES missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BBWI, BBY, and NVRI lowered forward guidance. 

With that background, all three major index ETFs are retesting their T-lines (8ema) from above in the premarket. However, all are printing small, indecisive candles ahead of the PCE data. Even the direction of those T-lines is undecided this morning with SPY’s 8ema rising, QQQ’s flat, and DIA’s just rolling over. So, based on the recent data, the short-term trend remains bullish, but precariously so. Meanwhile, the longer-term strong bullish trend continues to hang on (despite being tested). In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears have room to run if they can gather the momentum. However, based on the 10 Big Dog tech names, the Bears have the edge so far this morning. Nine of the 10 are red and NVDA (+0.01%) is only barely green. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. So, unless we get surprisingly good data at 8:30 a.m., it looks like a down start to the day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw SPY and QQQ open higher and DIA open lower.  QQQ opened 0.14% higher, QQQ gapped up 0.20%, and DIA opened down 0.07%.  From there, SPY and QQQ meandered sideways until 1 p.m.  Meanwhile, DIA sold off the first 5 minutes and then traded sideways in a very tight range, also until 1 p.m.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied very modestly the rest of the day.  This gave us indecisive candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ both printed white-body small-body Hammers.  At the same time, DIA gave us a black-body, larger-body Hammer that bounced up off its T-line (8ema).   Once again, this came on well below-average volume across the board.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green as Utilities (+1.56%) was way out in front (by more than half of a percent) leading the way higher and Energy (+0.06%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.19%, the DIA lost 0.27%, and the tech-heavy QQQ gained 0.24%.  VXX fell another 1.74% to close at 13.55 and T2122 climbed back up to the top of its mid-range at 78.67.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.307% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.35% to close at $78.63 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a blah day where the Bears had modest control early and the Bulls had modest control the last half of the day, resulting in not much change.  However, all three remain above their T-line (8ema) and the T-lines are also rising.  (Oddly, once again, IWM was the strongest of the index ETFs gapping 0.95% higher and closing up 1.39%.  

The major economic news released Tuesday included January Durable Goods Orders, which came in well below expectation at -6.1% (compared to a forecast of -4.9% and far below the December reading of -0.3%).  Later, February Conf. Board Consumer Confidence also came in low at 106.7 (versus a forecast of 114.8 and below the Jan. value of 110.9).  Finally, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a larger inventory build than planned at +8.428 million barrels (compared to a forecast for a 1.5-million-barrel build and a previous week’s value of +7.168 million barrels).

In Fed news, Fed Governor Bowman indicated that (like other Fed members) she is in no rush to cut interest rates Tuesday. Bowman said, “My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady.”  She continued, “I will remain cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy.”  Bowman concluded, “Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run.” 

After the close, ACHC, A, BECN, BGS, BWXT, CHE, CPNG, DVN, EBAY, GO, ICUI, MASI, OVV, PR, RSG, RYAN, SPLK, UHS, and VZIO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AGL, CRC, EXR, HY, LNW, and PARR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CIVI, COMP, FSLR, and ICFI all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, ARKO, DAR, TKO, and URBN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ACHC and EXR lowered their guidance.  However, AGL, CHE, and EBAY raised forward guidance.

In stock news, APO co-founder Black has sold $172.8 million of APO stock according to Reuters.  At the same time, WBD announced it had halted merger talks with PARA. Later, EGIO announced a 1-for-40 reverse (as of 3/1) split to keep it in compliance with NASDAQ rules.  At the same time, SONY announced it would lay off 900 employees from its PlayStation division (located in the UK).  Later, AAPL discontinued its electric car project (Titan) and shifted its focus toward AI.  This was a major multi-year project for AAPL, with 2,000 employees assigned to that project. (There was no word on whether the employees will be reassigned or laid off.) At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAL has tilted its 100-jet order of narrowbody jets away from BA and toward EADSY (Airbus) due to BA quality problems. Later, CIVI announced it had reached a definitive agreement to repurchase 876k shares of common stock from a hedge fund at $65.54 per share.  Elsewhere, CBRE announced it has completed the acquisition of J&J Worldwide Services for $800 million plus a potential additional $250 million in 2027 (depending on earnings in the meantime).  At the same time, NTR announced it would buy back up to 5% of its outstanding shares between March 1 and Feb 28, 2025.  Later, SHC announced it would launch a secondary offering of 25 million new shares.  After the close, BMBL announced it would cut 350 jobs after the dating app forecasted weak Q1 numbers.  Also after the close, BYND said it would hike prices and “steeply reduce” costs this year even after beating earnings estimates.  (Details of the steep reduction were not provided.)

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, after an outcry in Europe, MSFT’s recently announced (Monday) deal with French AI startup Mistral faces investigation with EU lawmakers telling both companies the deal likely violates EU antitrust rules. At the same time, the NHTSA announced that TM is recalling nearly 281k vehicles over unexpected movement caused by faulty software.  Later, the FDA warned patients and healthcare providers about the potentially serious risks of using HOLX devices implanted in soft tissue. At the same time, Reuters reported that the EU antitrust fine of $543 million related to the antitrust findings against the company brought by SPOT.  Later, the FDA announced that INCY had received a “priority review” designation for its treatment for GVHD. Elsewhere, AMAT received a subpoena from the SEC related to its shipments to China.  This is in addition to a subpoena from the US Dept. of Justice.  After the close, Reuters reported that SBUX has agreed to a “framework” to guide union organizing and collective bargaining to resolve dozens of pending lawsuits.  Workers United Union also announced the agreement with SBUX.  Also after the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Dept. of Justice has launched an antitrust investigation into UNH.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only South Korea (+1.04%) was in the green while Shenzhen (-2.40%), Shanghai (-1.91%), and Hong Kong (-1.51%) lewd the other 11 exchanges lower.  In Europe, we see a similar pattern taking shape with just four exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (+0.06%), and FTSE (-0.80%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures point toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.35% open, the SPY is implying a -0.37% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.44% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields backed down to 4.286% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.13% to $77.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance, and Jan. Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and two Fed speakers (Bostic at noon and Williams at 12:45 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, APG, BIDU, GTLS, DQ, DCI, DY, EME, EDR, GLP, IEP, ICL, IQ, KTB, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, LTH, NXST, NRG, ODP, PDCO, QRTEA, RY, SWX, SRCL, SHOO, TJX, BLD, VTNR, VTRS, VIPS, and VST.  Then, after the close, AMC, BMA, BBSI, SQM, CC, CODI, EFXT, GEF, HPQ, JAZZ, MNST, MYRG, NTNX, OKTA, PARAA, PARA, PSTG, CRM, SNOW, STN, and TPC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Core PCE Price Index, Jan. Personal Spending, Feb. Chicago PMI, Jan. Pending Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bostic at 10:50 a.m., Mester at 1:15 p.m., and Williams (8:10 p.m.).  Finally, on Friday, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Jan. Construction Spending, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and two Fed speakers (Bostic at 10 a.m. and Daly at 1:30 p.m.) are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BUD, BBWI, BBY, BCO, CNQ, COMM, CPG, CRH, XRAY, DDL, DOLE, NVRI, ESAB, EVRG, GMS, HGV, HRL, IHRT, MLCO, NTES, NFE, NOMD, PZZA, PSNY, TD, TGNA, ADSK, COO, DELL, EC, GRBK, MTZ, NTAP, PTVE, TTEC, VEEV, and ZS.  Finally, on Friday, AMRX reports.

In miscellaneous news, a conservative federal judge in TX (which is why it was brought there) ruled in favor of a GOP-filed suit, holding that the 2022 $1.7 trillion US government funding bill was unconstitutional.  The reason given was that the law was passed under a pandemic-era rule that allowed US House members to vote by proxy rather than in person.  (The judge said the “quorum clause” of the constitution actually means all members must vote in person, rather than only meaning more than half need to be present to conduct business. That ruling seems dubious at best in a world with the Internet and ubiquitous Zoom meetings)  The judge also said his ruling was “limited” in that it does not block all of the spending and other provisions in the law…only the two provisions that gave pregnant workers stronger legal protections. I’m not sure how only two provisions of the massive law were unconstitutional since the whole law was approved under the same rule.  However, if upheld on appeal, this precedent would seem to open up lawsuits from other entities to challenge all of the other individual aspects of the law for the same reason. Who knows what that means since most of that money has been spent and the government has operated for more than a year under that funding bill.

In late-breaking news, the White House announced Wednesday a new executive order intended to safeguard personal data online.  The order focuses on businesses selling of personal information (you as the product) for advertising and other purposes (US police and intelligence agencies freely buy such data routinely because it is illegal to surveil Americans…but perfectly legal for phones and websites to do so and then sell the information to any and everyone who wants to buy).  While politicians from both sides of the aisle have long “expressed concern” (made political headlines) over the matter, until today, none had taken any real action on it.  (Big tech and the major phone companies, who mostly do the data collecting are massive lobbyists and political contributors directly and via dark-money super PACs.)  Details are not yet available, but I would not be surprised if there is some carve-out that allows US agencies to continue to buy such data.  Regardless, this could be a threat to META, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, T, VZ, and other major tracking and data collection companies.

So far this morning, APG, DCI, EME, ICL, LTH, RY, SHOO, TJX, and VIPS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BIDU, GTLS, IQ, ODP, SRCL, and BLD reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EDR and NRG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AAP, DQ, DY, KTB, NXST, PDCO, and VRTS all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AAP, PDCO, TJX, and VIPS lowered their guidance.  However, GTLS and DCI raised forward guidance.

With that background, it appears the market is gapping lower and retesting the T-line (8ema) in all three of the major index ETFs in the premarket. All three are also printing black body, but indecisive candles in the early session. However, at the moment, all three remain above their T-lines in the premarket. So, the short-term trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the longer-term strong bullish trend continues to hang on (despite being tested). In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range, albeit at the very top of its mid-range. So, both sides of the market still have room to run if they can gather the momentum. Continue to watch those 10 Big Dog tech names. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. Right now, nine of the 10 are red with TSLA only modestly above break-even.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The market seemed undecided on Monday.  SPY opened 0.13% higher, DIA opened up just 0.05%, and QQQ “gapped” up 0.19%.  From that point, we saw divergence as the SPY sold off very, very slowly for the rest of the day while DIA sold off until 1:40 p.m., and QQQ meandered back and forth across its gap until it recrossed the last 5 minutes of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY gave us a big black candle that was about $0.28 from being an Evening Star. At the same time, DIA and QQQ printed black Spinning Top candles.  All of this came on very low volume (well below average) in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red as Utilities (-1.71%) was way out in front leading the way lower and both Technology and Consumer Cyclicals (+0.16%) held up best.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.37%, the DIA lost 0.15%, and the tech-heavy QQQ was just 0.05% lower.  VXX fell another 1.01% to close at 13.79 and T2122 fell back down further into its mid-range at 60.00.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.278% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.43% to close at $77.58 per barrel.  So, on Monday stocks started the day on the green side of flat.  However, then the three major index ETFs diverged before all ended lower.  However, all three remain above their T-line (8ema) and the T-lines are also rising.  (Oddly, IWM gave us a strong white candle that bounced up off the T-line, gaining 0.63%.)  

The major economic news released Monday was limited to Building Permits, which came in stronger than expected at 1.489 million (compared to a forecast of 1.470 million but weaker than an upwardly revised 1.493 million from 10 days prior).  Later, January New Home Sales came in up but also lower than predicted at 661k (versus a forecast of 680k and also up from December’s 651k).  This was a 1.5% increase month-on-month after December rose 7.2% month-on-month.  

In Fed news, in his debut speech, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said Monday that there is no need to preemptively cut rates.  Schmid said, “With inflation running above target, labor markets tight, and demand showing considerable momentum, my own view is that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of policy.” He continued, “Instead, I believe that the best course of action is to be patient, continue to watch how the economy responds to the policy tightening that has occurred, and wait for convincing evidence that the inflation fight has been won.”  Related to reducing the Fed Balance Sheet, Schmid said “Some interest-rate volatility should be tolerated as we continue to shrink our balance sheet.”

After the close, DDS, HEI, MBC, PRIM, VLRS, WDAY, and ZM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AES, CAPL, DORM, SBAC, and STRL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CPE, ERIE, and U beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AAN, ATSG, and OKE missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AAN and U lowered their guidance.  However, PRIM, SBAC, STRL, and ZM all raised forward guidance.

In stock news, AMZN announced a new $5 billion investment in Mexico for Latin American AWS cloud services (setting up a large server farm in Mexico).  Later, VATE announced it will offer $19 million of common stock to current VATE stockholders of record on March 6 through a grant of rights to purchase.  At the same time, PPG announced it has initiated a strategic review of its architectural coating business units in the US and Canada.  Later, MU announced it has begun the mass manufacture of High Bandwidth memory (HBM3E) which is set to be integrated with NVDA’s top AI chips in Q2 2024.  At the same time, GOOGL announced plans to relaunch its Gemini AI tool in a “few weeks” after the service was pulled last week.  (Gemini bugs caused numerous inaccurate outputs including historical inaccuracies.)  Later, CENN said it was finalizing of its “redomiciling” from Australia to the US.  At the same time, AVGO sold its remote-access business unit to KKR for $4 billion.  This was part of the divestitures AVGO promised to make to secure approval for its acquisition of VMW last year.  (Side note, VMW has increased its pricing 10x per seat since the acquisition.)  Later, UNH said on Monday that the prescription outages at pharmacies last week was caused by a hack and ransomware attack from a group known as “Blackcat.”  (This is the same group that had hit MGM and CZR last year.)  At the same time, ATUS rallied 40% Monday after Bloomberg reported CHTR is considering a bid to acquire ATUS. Elsewhere, LUNR announced its moon lander mission will end today after its tipped-over landing is preventing solar panels from charging batteries.  At the same time, EXPE announced approximately 1,500 job cuts as part of a strategic restructuring that it says will cost the company between $80 million and $100 million pre-tax in 2024.

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, HOTH announced it had received the Orphan Drug designation from the FDA, granting it tax credits for clinical testing, waiver of FDA fees, and an exclusive market for its HT-KIT therapy.  Later, the FTC (and eight states) filed suit to block the KR acquisition of ACI for nearly $25 billion.  The FTC lawsuit alleges the merger would eliminate competition in many markets, even with KR offering divestments.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice threatened to sue BRKB subsidiary PacifiCorp over its failure to cover $356 million in costs associated with the 2020 Slater wildfire that the company’s power lines caused.  Later, GOOGL ramped up its criticism of MSFT and AMZN (especially MSFT) for what it alleged are anticompetitive practices that help build and protect monopoly positions in cloud computing.  GOOGL urged the FTC and other regulators to step in to break the monopolies.  Elsewhere, a panel of experts appointed by the FAA announced a “safety disconnect” between BA management and employees.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice announced that DLTR has agreed to pay $41.675 million in a settlement of an FDA probe into its handling of FDA-regulated products.  Later, a subsidiary of EIX agreed to pay $80 million to the US Forest Service for costs and damages from the 2017 Thomas wildfire found to be caused by the company’s power lines.  At the same time, JBLU and SAVE urged a US appeals court to overturn a lower court ruling that blocked their $3.8 billion merger.  Later, the US Supreme Court heard arguments in a case related to laws in FL and TX meant to restrict META, GOOGL, and other social media companies in how they moderate content.  At the same time, US Sec. of Commerce Raimondo said Monday that the government had received more than double the $28 billion chips grants it plans to award.  She said they have received more than $70 billion in grant requests.  SCLX and SRNEQ settled with VTPX.  Under the agreement, VTPX will pay a series of payments in 2024 and will also pay 6% royalties through the end of relative patents.  Both sides also provided mutual releases of all claims. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side, led by China.  Shenzhen (+2.24%), Shanghai (+1.29%), and Hong Kong (+0.94%) paced the gains while South Korea (-0.83%), Taiwan (-0.49%), and Singapore (-0.44%) led the losses.  In Europe, we see bourses leaning toward the red side, with nine of the 15 exchanges underwater at midday.  The CAC (+0.09%), DAX (+0.45), and FTSE (-0.06%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.28% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are down a bit to 4.27% and Oil (WTI) is off a quarter of a percent to $77.37 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Jan. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m.), Feb. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, AEP, AMT, AZO, BMO, BNS, CRI, CLVT, CBRL, DK, HSIC, SJM, JLL, DRS, LOW, M, EYE, NCLH, PRGO, PNW, RCM, SEE, SRE, and STGW.  Then, after the close, ACHC, A, AGL, ARKO, BGS, BECN, BWXT, CRC, CHE, CIVI, COMP, CPNG, DAR, DVN, EBAY, EXR, FSLR, GO, ICFI, ICUI, LNW, MASI, OVV, PARR, PK, PR, RSG, RYAN, SPLK, TKO, UHS, URBN, and VZIO report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance, Jan. Retail Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and two Fed speakers (Bostic at noon and Williams at 12:45 p.m.) are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Core PCE Price Index, Jan. Personal Spending, Feb. Chicago PMI, Jan. Pending Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bostic at 10:50 a.m., Mester at 1:15 p.m., and Williams (8:10 p.m.).  Finally, on Friday, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Jan. Construction Spending, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and two Fed speakers (Bostic at 10 a.m. and Daly at 1:30 p.m.) are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AAP, APG, BIDU, GTLS, DQ, DCI, DY, EME, EDR, GLP, IEP, ICL, IQ, KTB, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, LTH, NXST, NRG, ODP, PDCO, QRTEA, RY, SWX, SRCL, SHOO, TJX, BLD, VTNR, VTRS, VIPS, VST, AMC, BMA, BBSI, SQM, CC, CODI, EFXT, GEF, HPQ, JAZZ, MNST, MYRG, NTNX, OKTA, PARAA, PARA, PSTG, CRM, SNOW, STN, and TPC report.  On Thursday, we hear from BUD, BBWI, BBY, BCO, CNQ, COMM, CPG, CRH, XRAY, DDL, DOLE, NVRI, ESAB, EVRG, GMS, HGV, HRL, IHRT, MLCO, NTES, NFE, NOMD, PZZA, PSNY, TD, TGNA, ADSK, COO, DELL, EC, GRBK, MTZ, NTAP, PTVE, TTEC, VEEV, and ZS.  Finally, on Friday, AMRX reports.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Monday that NVDA options account for a full 25% of options premiums now as the AI craze has gained steam.  NVDA options trade $3 billion in options premium per day on average at this point.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Commerce restricted exports to Canadian firm Sandvine for allegedly helping the Egyptian government target human rights activists.  Overseas, Japan announced January CORE CPI inflation of 2% on Tuesday (right at the Bank of Japan’s 2% target).  This was slightly above the forecasted 1.9% year-on-year number.  The headline number remained at 2.2% year-on-year, down sharply from 2.6% in December.  In personnel news, JPM hired the head of Banking from their direct competitor C.  At the same time, the Walton family sold roughly $1.5 billion of WMT stock in Q4 while the stock was near record highs.  Finally, speaking of JPM, CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday that “AI is the real deal (not a fad) and will make a real difference in the economy.”  Perhaps more importantly, he said the commercial real estate problem will be contained to “just pockets of the sector” as long as the US avoids a recession.  He went on to say that most property owners can handle the current levels of stress and that “lower valuations tied to interest rates is not a crisis, it’s kind of a known thing.”

In geopolitical news, Sweden officially joined NATO after finally being approved by the Putin-loving Hungarian Parliament.  Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the first known destruction of an American-supplied M1A1 tank was recorded in the Avdiivka area (front-line in Eastern Ukraine).  Meanwhile, in Russia, there was another “mysterious death” of a former Russian military officer and prominent Putin critic (who was famous for leading the “little green men” who invaded and annexed Donbas). Igor Girkin (known as Strelkov) “apparently hung himself” in his cell. (Strelkov, a wanted war criminal himself, criticized Putin not for the invasion of Ukraine, but for the invasion being inept because it was being executed by corrupt Putin cronies who are not qualified).  Meanwhile, French President Macron said Monday that sending Western ground troops to Ukraine had not been ruled out.  The statement was made to the press after a meeting of European heads of state.  Tuesday, German Chancellor Scholz walked back the idea by saying there was “no consensus over deploying ground troops” among European leaders and NATO officials.  This was probably all rhetoric, but with US support of Ukraine frozen the probability of a broader war increases as Russia is making small but significant gains of ground again.

So far this morning, AHCO, AMT, AZO, BNS, SJM, JLL, LOW, M, TIGO, EYE, and SEE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CRI, CLVT, PRGO, and SRE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DK, NCLH, and FOUR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BMO, HSIC, RCM, and STGW missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CRI raised its guidance.  However, LOW and M both lowered guidance.

With that background, it appears the market is on the green side of undecided this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the premarket but all three are also putting in white-bodied candles so far in the early session. The QQQ in particular is strong. All three remain above their T-lines in the premarket. So, the short-term trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the longer-term strong bullish trend continues to hang in (despite being tested). In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have room to run if they can gather the energy to do so. Continue to watch those 10 Big Dog tech names. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. Right now, eight of the 10 are green with the two red ones very, very modestly below break-even.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a non-committal day on Wall Street.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, DIA gapped up 0.29%, and QQQ gapped up 0.33%.  At that point, we saw a divergence with DIA riding waves sideways along the open while SPY and QQQ faded the opening gap. (QQQ recrossed the gap by 10:45 a.m. and SPY did so by 11 a.m.)  QQQ continued to ride waves below the Thursday close and never quite made it past that level. At the same time, SPY crossed and recrossed the gap…spending the rest of the day inside it.  DIA fell back to the open level at 12:30 p.m. and traded inside the upper end of the gap the rest of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, black-body candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY printed a Spinning Top, the DIA printed something like a Shooting Star, and QQQ gave us a Dark Cloud Cover with wicks at both ends.  On the day, all three printed new all-time highs while the two large-cap index ETFs printed new all-time high closes. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green as Industrials (+0.60%) was out in front leading the way higher and Energy (-0.45%) lagged and was by far the biggest loser.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.07%, the DIA gained 0.19%, and the tech-heavy QQQ pulled back 0.27%. VXX fell 3.67% to close at 13.93 and T2122 climbed to the very top of its mid-range at 78.48.  10-year bond yields dropped back to 4.25% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.62% to close at $76.55 per barrel.  So, on Friday was a gap-up and then mostly indecisive and non-descript day.  That being said, the Bulls are still in charge with markets printing all-time highs with prices above rising T-lines (8ema).  At the same time, this happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs and it just feels like we are pushing closer to at least a pullback.   

There was no major economic news released Friday.

In earnings news, Reuters reported Friday after the close that the vast majority of S&P 500 companies have already reported and, to this point, LSEG reports the index companies are on track to grow earnings 10% in Q4 compared to the prior Q4.  This would be the biggest earnings increase since Q1 of 2022.  The article continued by saying that the glowing results have allowed the market to ignore the rise in bond yields.  However, as the report ends, it quoted analysts as saying the focus on the path of rates and yields may well come back to the forefront.  (The implication is that if markets look at bond rates, a pullback/correction may be in order.)

In Fed news, NT Fed President Williams reiterated the company line Friday, saying that rate cuts are likely, later this year, but more confidence in the decline of inflation was needed.  Williams said, “My overall view of the economy basically hasn’t changed … the economy more broadly are headed in the right direction.”  “At some point, I think it will be appropriate to pull back on restrictive monetary policy, likely later this year.” “It’s really about reading that data and looking for consistent signs that inflation is not only coming down but is moving towards that 2% longer-run goal.” Related to reducing the Fed Balance Sheet, Williams said, “The goal is to make sure we get a nice, smooth process of continuing to reduce the balance sheet … allowing us to monitor, analyze and understand how that reduction … is meeting (our test) for ultimately stopping.” 

In stock news, on Friday, LUNR stock soared on a very volatile day after the company successfully landed its spacecraft on the moon.  (LUNR closed up 15.82% after being up more than 43% during the day.  The late-day slump came after LUNR announced its lander was actually “tipped over.”)  In other stock news, NVDA briefly hit $2 trillion in market cap for the first time Friday.  This came one day after their global record $277 billion single-day increase in cap on Thursday.  (NVDA closed up 0.36% after being up almost 5% earlier in the day.  Still NVDA closed at a new all-time high close.)  Later, HII announced the successful launch of its 25^th Virginia-class submarine, a significant milestone toward delivery to the US Navy. At the same time, an American carmaker trade group urged Congress and the Biden Administration to block the introduction of cheap Chinese vehicle imports from Mexico.  The group representing US automakers urged a ban on auto and auto part imports from Mexico.  However, many of the group’s members have plants in that country.  Two days after AAL did the same thing, UAL raised its checked bag fee to exactly the same price of $40 for a first bag, $35 if bought in advance as of Saturday. (I’m sure it’s purely coincidental that UAL and AAL’s fees are exactly the same.)  Later, CPHI announced a 1-for-5 reverse split as of March 6.  (CPHI closed at $0.09 Friday.)  At the same time, BODY announced it will change its ticker symbol to BODI before the open March 4.  Elsewhere, ACDVF (Air Canada) announced it would cap airfares and add more than 6,000 seats in light of the pending suspension of operations by budget airline Lynx Air.  Later, F announced it had halted the shipments of new F-150 Lightning EVs.  (The halt actually began on February 9.)  At the same time, the American Pharmacists Assn. announced that patients are seeing delays as many pharmacies could not transmit insurance claims after UNH subsidiary CHNG reported a hack earlier in the week. (In short, patients must pay themselves and hope to get reimbursed by insurance or wait on their prescriptions.)

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, on Friday, the SEC removed some its most ambitious greenhouse gas disclosure requirements from its rule change proposal first made in March 2022.  Later, China’s market regulator (counterpart to the US NHTSA) announced TSLA would fix the software on 8,700 vehicles to reduce the chance of accidents.  Later, a US judge ruled that BCS must face a class-action lawsuit brought by shareholders alleging securities fraud related to the sale of $17.7 billion more debt than regulators allowed.  Elsewhere, MGM said Friday that it has been informed of investigations by both state and federal regulators related to the September cyber attack that took its systems offline.  CZR also confirmed it has been informed it is under investigation over the same matters.  Later, DAL petitioned the Biden administration to reverse the decision to scrap the airline’s antitrust immunity for its partnership with Aeromexico.  DAL claims the loss of that immunity would result in the loss of nearly two dozen flight routes.  After the close, the FTC accused HRB of deceptive marketing for claiming its online tax filing is free, when most consumers end up being required to pay.  The complaint also alleges HRB deletes customer tax prep records if they downgrade to the advertised “free filing” service level.

BRKB earnings merit their own mention.  Over the weekend, Warren Buffett’s company reported another record profit for Q4, up 28% from the prior Q4 (2022).  In addition, BRKB continues to hoard cash as it reported holding $167.6 billion in cash to end the quarter.  (This smashes the $157.2 billion record amount it had on hand to end Q3.)  The resulting premarket trading now has BRKB valued at nearly $1 trillion.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with only three of twelve exchanges in the green.  Shanghai (-0.93%), South Korea (-0.77%), and Hong Kong (-0.54%) led the region lower. In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with a notable exception in Russia (+2.04%).  The CAC (-0.31%), DAX (+0.08%), and FTSE (-0.32%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat open.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a -0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.01% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down to 4.242% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.54% to $76.09 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Building Permits (8 a.m.) and January New Home Sales (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMR, BRKB, CCO, DPZ, ELAN, FIS, ITRI, KOS, LI, PPC, PLTK, PEG, AND SGRY.  Then, after the close, AAN, AES, ATSG, CAPL, DORM, ERIE, HEI, OKE, SBAC, STRL, U, VLRS, WDAY, and ZM report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Feb. Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance, Jan. Retail Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and two Fed speakers (Bostic at noon and Williams at 12:45 p.m.) are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Core PCE Price Index, Jan. Personal Spending, Feb. Chicago PMI, Jan. Pending Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bostic at 10:50 a.m., Mester at 1:15 p.m., and Williams (8:10 p.m.).  Finally, on Friday, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Jan. Construction Spending, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and two Fed speakers (Bostic at 10 a.m. and Daly at 1:30 p.m.) are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AHCO, AEP, AMT, AZO, BMO, BNS, CRI, CLVT, CBRL, DK, HSIC, SJM, JLL, DRS, LOW, M, EYE, NCLH, PRGO, PNW, RCM, SEE, SRE, STGW, ACHC, A, AGL, ARKO, BGS, BECN, BWXT, CRC, CHE, CIVI, COMP, CPNG, DAR, DVN, EBAY, EXR, FSLR, GO, ICFI, ICUI, LNW, MASI, OVV, PARR, PK, PR, RSG, RYAN, SPLK, TKO, UHS, URBN, and VZIO.  Then Wednesday, AAP, APG, BIDU, GTLS, DQ, DCI, DY, EME, EDR, GLP, IEP, ICL, IQ, KTB, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, LTH, NXST, NRG, ODP, PDCO, QRTEA, RY, SWX, SRCL, SHOO, TJX, BLD, VTNR, VTRS, VIPS, VST, AMC, BMA, BBSI, SQM, CC, CODI, EFXT, GEF, HPQ, JAZZ, MNST, MYRG, NTNX, OKTA, PARAA, PARA, PSTG, CRM, SNOW, STN, and TPC report.  On Thursday, we hear from BUD, BBWI, BBY, BCO, CNQ, COMM, CPG, CRH, XRAY, DDL, DOLE, NVRI, ESAB, EVRG, GMS, HGV, HRL, IHRT, MLCO, NTES, NFE, NOMD, PZZA, PSNY, TD, TGNA, ADSK, COO, DELL, EC, GRBK, MTZ, NTAP, PTVE, TTEC, VEEV, and ZS.  Finally, on Friday, AMRX reports.

In miscellaneous news, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Ass. Said that US borrowing to finance equipment rose 6% in January. Its report said credit approvals came in a 76% (up slightly from 75% in December).  However, the $9.3 billion amount of equipment credit was down 26% month-on-month.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that NVDA is the third-most-shorted stock in the market, with $18.3 billion of shorts. On Thursday alone, those shorts lost $3 billion (on paper).  They lost even more on Friday as NVDA was up 4.6% at one point during the day before closing up 0.36%.  This all happened as NVDA is right on the brink of having a $2 trillion market cap.  Is NVDA over-priced?  Almost undoubtedly.  Will it collapse…and by a enough…before the big number of shorts are forced to cover, driving NVDA even higher?  That is unknown.  Meanwhile, JPM announced that CEO Jamie Dimon sold $150 million of its stock, as had been announced last year (as part of a diversification of his holdings). Finally, Friday (March 1) is the first of House Speaker Johnson’s two cliffs (two partial shutdowns). So, the countdown is on and the House does not resume session until Wednesday with the Senate not scheduled to return until March 4. (Of course, both bodies “could” be called back early.)

In geopolitical news. the most recent Russian invasion of Ukraine passed its second anniversary Saturday.  (It’s actually been 10 years since Russia invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, via what was colloquially known as “little green men.”)  The Biden Administration marked that grim milestone by adding additional sanctions on Russia.  Of course, this is a drop in the bucket with Ukrainian aid dead in the US House as the MAGA-controlled Speaker refuses to bring the Senate aid package to the floor for discussion.  This comes as poll released Friday from Pew Research finds that 74% of Americans (and 69% of Republicans) believe defending Ukraine is “important to US national interests” and 59% (56% of Republicans) said it was “important to them personally.”)  Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel continues its invasion of Gaza with plans for their invasion of Rafah (a Gaza city) continuing.  As a result, the Palestinian-supporting Houthi continue their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.  Of course, this has resulted in a continuation of US and UK airstrikes in Yemen as well as sea-based anti-drone military actions over the weekend. On the political side of this, US Sec. of State Blinken said Friday that Israeli settlements in conquered lands (as have been going on for decades) are contrary to international law. Of course, the Israeli government quickly denounced this as nobody’s business but their own and pledged to continue placing new settlements in the West Bank and other conquered lands. On Sunday, there was word of a proposal for a six-week ceasefire including the exchange of 40 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians the Israelis have essentially taken hostage (detained without a legal process). However, Israeli PM Netanyahu told CBS Face the Nation it was Hamas blocking the deal with their unrealistic demands. In either case, if a ceasefire does happen, Netanyahu says it will be a pause, not an end of the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

So far this morning, BRKB, CCO, FDP, KOS, LI, and PPC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ELAN and PLTK beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, FIS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that LI lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it appears the market is undecided early Monday. All three major index ETFs gapped down to start the premarket. However, all three are also printing shite-bodied candles that have price back near early session highs, if still just on the red side of flat. All three remain above their T-lines in the premarket. So, the short-term trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the longer-term strong bullish trend continues to hang in (despite DIA testing it strongly). In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator is at the very top of its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have room to run if they can gather the energy to do so. Continue to watch those 10 Big Dog tech names. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. Right now, they are evenly split, but the bullish members of this group are moving much more than the five in the red.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw the market start lower and then trade indecisively.  SPY gapped down 0.25%, DIA opened 0.19% lower, and QQQ gapped down 0.70%.  After the open, all three major index ETFs just chopped sideways in a tight range until the FOMC Minutes were released at 2 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off for about 90 minutes but then rallied hard.  The two large-cap ETFs recrossed the opening gap and QQQ climbed back up into the middle of its opening gap by the close. This action gave us white-body Hammer candles in all three index ETFs.  DIA even managed to cross back above its T-line (8ema).  This happened on average volume in the QQQ and below-average volume in the large-cap index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green as Energy (+1.71%) was way out in front (by nine-tenths of a percent) leading the way higher and Technology (-0.90%) lagged.  The latter was perhaps due to anticipation of NVDA earnings after the bell.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.09%, the DIA gained 0.09%, and the tech-heavy QQQ dropped 0.40%. VXX fell 0.87% to close at 14.74 and T2122 climbed but remained in the middle of the mid-range at 57.89.  10-year bond yields jumped up to 4.319% and Oil (WTI) climbed another 1.26% to close at $78.01 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday the market gave us a gap lower, hours of indecision, a knee-jerk reaction lower to FOMC Minutes, and then a strong rally into the close.  All-in-all, the Bulls had the upper hand except for tech where NVDA (pre-earnings) and INTC (-2.36%) drug the QQQ lower. 

The major economic news released Wednesday was limited to the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report, which came in with a much larger inventory build than expected at +7.168 million barrels (compared to a forecast calling for a 4.298-million-barrel build but less than the previous week’s 8.520-million-barrel inventory build).  It may also be worth noting that the 20-year bond auction showed a significant increase in yields as the auction came in at 4.595% compared to January’s 4.423% yield.

In Fed news, Richmond Fed President Barkin said Wednesday that inflation data in January made the FOMC’s job harder.  Barking said, “You do worry that when the goods price deflation cycle ends you are going to be left with shelter and services higher than you like.”  He said that 2023’s dramatic inflation reduction while the economy remains strong was “remarkable.”  However, he concluded, “We still have a way to go…we are not on the ground yet.”  Later, January FOMC Meeting Minutes showed the majority of Fed members were worried about cutting rates too soon.  The minutes said, “most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy,” while only “a couple pointed to downside risks to the economy associated with maintaining an overly restrictive stance for too long.”  Beyond this, the minutes noted that “many participants were eager to kick off in-depth discussions at the March 19-20 meeting related to how they will conclude the reduction in the Fed’s bond holdings.”

After the close, ANSS, CENX, CHRD, CHDN, CLW, COKE, ETSY, EXAS, GNW, HST, JACK, KALU, MRO, VAC, NDSN, NVDA, OUT, RRC, SU, TS, TCOM, and TBI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AGI, AGR, CWH, CAKE, ICLR, NEXA, OGS, RYI, SM, SNPS, and VMI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BTG, FG, FNF, HUN, MOS, NTR, RIVN, and RUN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, APA, BALY, JXN, and WES missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that NVDA and SNPS raised forward guidance.  There were no guidance reductions of note.

The NVDA earnings report last night is worthy of its own mention.  The most widely traded stock (NVDA recently surpassed TSLA in that regard), crushed the consensus earnings estimate with 265% earnings growth, beating estimates by more than 13% ($5.16 versus a consensus of $4.56).  NVDA also beat revenue estimates by more than 9% ($22.10 billion versus $20.24 billion expected).  NVDA stock surged 10.5% in after-hours trading.  The company also said current quarter revenue is expected to be $24 billion (analysts had predicted a $21.9 billion Q1 forecast on average).

In stock news, on Wednesday, F announced it had reached an agreement with the UAW on local mostly safety issues at its largest and most profitable plant in KY.  This will avoid a threatened strike.  At the same time, LUNR announced it had launched its lunar lander from the orbit of the moon in what is scheduled to be the first US (and private) moon landing in 50 years on Thursday (after the close). Later, CHK said the US nat gas market was “oversupplied” and that it would cut spending on nat gas exploration and production.  At the same time, INTC announced it had signed MSFT as a customer for its custom chip-making unit…and that it is on track to overtake TSM as the maker of the world’s fastest chips in 2025.  Later, Reuters reported that the head of the BA 737 MAX program had “stepped down.”  At the same time, UNP announced a $3.4 billion capital investment plan for 2024.  Later, STRS announced it had rejected an unsolicited bid to acquire the company for $27.18 per share. (STRS closed at $22.50, up 1.26% on the day.)  At the same time, the board of QDEL fired its CEO.  Elsewhere, TTE announced its Port Arthur, TX refinery is operating (at “minimal production levels”) again after having been shut down by plant-wide power outages during 20-degree weather on Jan. 16.  Later, AAPL announced it is rolling out a new version of its iMessage texting platform which the company claims can withstand decryption from even quantum computers.  At the same time, KTOS announced it would offer $300 million of additional common stock (with underwriters having the option to buy another $45 million within 30 days) to help pay down debt.  After the close, CHRD and ERF announced that they had agreed to merge.  (ERF shareholders will get 0.10125 shares of CHRD plus $1.84 cash for each share of ERF.)  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that ABBV is looking to sell $13 billion of bonds to fund additional acquisitions.

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, the US Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal of a decision in JPM’s (and other large banks’) favor.  This let stand a lower court ruling that a $1.8 billion loan was not a security that should be regulated even though it was chopped up and sold to a group of different investors.  The case had been brought by one of the bankruptcy trustees of one of the buyers of that syndicated loan.  ($1.4 trillion of these leveraged and syndicated loans are sold off by the big banks every year.)  Later, the state of CA put a hold on GOOGL’s Waymo division request to expand its robotaxi fleet until at least June 19.  The company’s application may resume review at that point.  (If not approved then, it can be placed on another 180-day suspension.)  At the same time, a Texas cryptocurrency company sued the SEC Wednesday claiming the agency had no right to regulate digital assets.  The company (Legilex) plans to launch its own exchange (Lejit Exchange) to compete with COIN, which the SEC regulated last year.  Elsewhere, the FDA warned against using smartwatches like those from AAPL to monitor blood glucose levels.  The agency said there was no proof the devices work as well as existing tools (that require a drop of blood) without piercing the skin.  At the same time, the NRLB ruled 3-1 against HD saying that it could not bar a retail worker from wearing a “Black Lives Matter” apron because the company ban came amidst an investigation of complaints against racial discrimination at the store in question.  After the close, the FDA announced it had given clearance to a CLPT software for MRI-guided neurological interventions.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Malaysia (-0.45%) was in the red while Japan (+2.19%), Hong Kong (+1.45%), and Shanghai (+1.27%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  Only two minor exchanges (of 15) are in the red while the CAC (+1.11%), DAX (+1.47%), and FTSE (+0.18%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.41% open, the SPY is implying a +1.26% open, and the QQQ implies a huge +2.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.333% and Oil (WTI) is off slightly to $77.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), January Existing Home Sales (10 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.  We also hear from Fed members Harker (3:15 p.m.), Kashkari (5 p.m.), and Waller (7:35 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMBP, BHC, BLDR, LNG, D, DRVN, ETR, FCN, GFI, GRAB, GVA, HNI, IBP, IRM, KDP, LAUR, LKQ, MRNA, NMRK, NEM, NICE, OPCH, PCG, PXD, POOL, PRMW, PWR, STWD, FTI, TECK, TFX, TEF, TRN, UPBD, VAL, and W.  Then, after the close, AGCO, AEE, COLD, ACA, BMRN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CTRA, CPRT, EIX, EOG, WTRG, EVH, EXPI, FND, INTU, LYV, MELI, MODV, NE, NOG, NU, OII, ZEUS, PBA, RKT, RHP, SEM, SWN, SFM, SPXC, VALE, VICI, and WKC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday there is no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AER, ALIZY, BLMN, CLMT, SSP, FMX, FYBR, GTN, HBM, LAMR, RBA, TAC, and WBD report.

In miscellaneous news, the House “Freedom Caucus” sent a letter urging House Speaker Johnson to abandon talks with Senate Democrats on bipartisan spending legislation.  In other words, the 28 MAGA types urged a government shutdown early next month.  Instead of negotiation, they propose a shutdown and triggering of a 1% across-the-board budget cut, which would reduce spending but more importantly, make an absolute mess (likely including US credit downgrades) that they believe they can blame on Democrats.  Elsewhere, Counterpoint Research reported Wednesday that US smartphone sales plunged 10% in January.  The research firm attributed the decline to customers putting off upgrades ahead of the launch of the new Samsung Galaxy S24 series, which hit shelves on Jan. 17.  However, by then the damage was done to the monthly number.  (The firm also said the S24 did well in its first two weeks of availability. At the high end of the market, AAPL continued to gain market share thanks to promotional offers on its new iPhone 15 series.

In legal business news, the US Supreme Court heard a case on Wednesday brought by various industries it was being proposed be forced to take steps to mitigate their pollution drifting into other states with the Westerly winds.  Three issues make this notable and important to corporate interests (in this particular case, pollution-heavy industries) and therefore the broader market.  The first is that, for the third time in two years, the Conservative-packed court has heard a case brought by industry (and states under industry pressure) before the regulations being challenged have even been finalized.  (The regulations were not in effect yet and no impact had be caused. In this case, the rules were not planned to go into effect until 2026.)  The second thing, that proves we now have an activist court, is a change in how the SCOTUS operates.  SCOTUS is meant to rule on legal and constitutional aspects of lower court decisions (not make law or dictate executive regulation). Yet, again in this case (and for the third time in two years), there is no lower court case.  The Conservative justices of the court decided to hear the case with no lower court trials having even started.  (To be fair the cases were filed at the US District level, just not heard, let along having risen through the Appeals level and then potentially reaching SCOTUS.)  This normal process was short-circuited by SCOTUS hearing the case directly on an emergency basis prior to either the rules being in place or initial-level cases even starting.  The third issue that makes this important is that all three of the “direct cases” the court took up were brought to preemptively stop the executive branch from even finalizing regulatory rules.  In other words, it is now a clear pattern that the current SCOTUS is actively seeking to reduce the executive branch’s power to regulate and dictate the extent of regulation from the start.  (Separately, the first two have caused the Federal agencies to go back to the drawing board and have left aspects unregulated despite Congressional requirements to do so.  In the current case, the law requires the sitting Administration to review the cross-state-border pollution (Good Neighbor) rules every few years.  The Trump Administration simply refused to do so.  The Biden Admin. had proposed expanding from covering power plants (as SCOTUS ruled constitutional when challenged in 2014) to include steel mills, cement plants, chemical plants, etc.  For what it is worth, all three cases SCOTUS heard directly were related to some kind of environmental regulation.  In both prior cases, SCOTUS ruled the executive branch it has far more limited authority and it dictated the extent to which the Federal Agencies can regulate. Questioning yesterday leads us to believe the same will happen here again.

So far this morning, BHC, BLDR, CQP, LNG, ENOV, FCN, GCI, GRAB, HNI, IBP, MRNA, NEM, OPCH, PCG, PWR, FTI, TFX, TRN, and UPBD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DRVN, IRM, KDP, LKQ, POOL, STWD, TECK, VAL, and W all reported missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AMBP and GVA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ETR and PRMW missed on bot the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GRAB and PRMW lowered forward guidance.  However, IRM and NICE raised their guidance.

With that background, it appears the Bulls are looking to put in a raring rally early. SPY has gapped up and is trading at all-time highs in the premarket. The other two major index ETFs are also gapping higher but have not taken out the recent highs yet. All three have given us indecisive candles since their gap to start the early session. However, all three are back above their T-lines in the premarket. So, the short-term trend is bullish and we are looking at a gap higher and likely volatility at the open. Meanwhile, the longer-term steep bullish trend would be back in place in the two large-cap index ETFs and would be being retested in the QQQ if we open here. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range. So, either side has room to run if they can gather the energy to do so. Continue to watch those 10 Big Dog tech names. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. Right now, all 10 are strongly bullish with the biggest of them (NVDA) up almost 14%.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears were in control in the SPY and especially QQQ on Tuesday while the DIA was undecided.  SPY gapped down 0.36%, DIA opened 0.15% lower, and QQQ gapped down 0.49%. After the open, DIA wandered sideways, crossing and recrossing the opening gap until 12:40 p.m.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ followed through to the downside for an hour, bounced to retrace half of the follow-through, and then sold off again until about 12:40 p.m.  At that point, all three major index ETFs put in a very slow and modest rally that took us into the close.  This action gave us gap-down, indecisive candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ printed black-bodied Spinning Top candles at the same time DIA printed a white-bodied Doji. All three crossed back down below their respective T-lines (8ema).  This happened on average volume in the QQQ and below-average volume in the large-cap index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red again as Technology (-1.21%) was out in front leading the way lower Consumer Defensive (+0.83%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.55%, the DIA lost 0.12%, and the tech-heavy QQQ dropped 0.75%.  VXX rose 3.12% to close at 14.85 and T2122 dropped back down into the middle of the mid-range at 46.30.  10-year bond yields fell back just a bit to 4.275% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.16% to close at $78.27 per barrel.  So, Tuesday gave us a gap lower and then indecision across the market.  With that said, we must note that we do have a downtrend in progress in the QQQ (a lower high and a lower low).  Meanwhile, SPY and DIA are not far behind having given use a lower high…but both may also have found a potential support level.

The major economic news released Tuesday was limited to the January US Leading Economic Indicators Index, which came in lower than expected at -0.4% (compared to a forecast of -0.3% and the December reading of -0.2%). 

After the close, CHK, CSGP, CWK, FANG, FLS, GMED, KEYS, MTDR, MATX, PANW, PSA, QUAD, RNG, SPNT, SUI, VIV, TX, and TOL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ANDE, CVI, ESI, ENLC, GPK, JBT, and TDOC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BCC, BKD, CYH, GFL, IFF, and O beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CZR, CE, LZB, and WSC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CE, CSGP, IFF, KEYS, LZB, and QUAD all lowered forward guidance.  However, JBT raised guidance.

In stock news, on Tuesday, F announced it had cut the prices of its Mustang Mach-E electric SUV by up to $8,100 after sales fell sharply in January.  (This brings the MSRP down below $40k on the base model and down to $52,395 on the high-end model.)  At the same time, TFC agreed to sell its remaining stake in an $15.5 billion insurance brokerage business to private investors.  TFC said that move is part of its move to focus on its core banking business.  At the same time, AAL announced it is raising its bag fee to $40 for a first checked bag and $45 for the second effective immediately. Later, Reuters reported that UAL said the airline is switching to relying on BA 737 MAX 9 and EASDY (Airbus) A321 aircraft after BA production problems have raised doubts about the FAA certification schedule of 737 MAX 10 jets.  (UAL has not yet canceled its order for 277 of the MAX 10 jets, with an option to buy 200 more.)  Elsewhere, GM announced that it has temporarily paused the production of Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon mid-sized trucks while it works to solve intermittent software quality issues.  At the same time, CAG announced it will begin selling frozen meals designed for people taking the most recent wave of weight loss drugs.  Later, FANG announced a series of major C-suite leadership reshuffles.  After the close, it was announced that AMZN would replace WBA in the Dow Jones Industrial Average before the open on Monday, February 26.  Also after the close, Reuters reported exclusively that OXY is exploring the sale of its WES natural gas pipeline unit.  Meanwhile, CNP announced it will sell natural gas assets in LA and MS for $1.2 billion to a private investor group.

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, on Tuesday the FDA granted “Breakthrough status” to a liver condition therapy from BTTX.  At the same time, the FDA granted “Fast Track” status to an anemia treatment from IRON.  The FDA gave the same status to a myotonic dystrophy drug from PEPG.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce announced a $1.5 billion direct funding grant to GFS (NY state also is giving GFS $600 million in funding) for the tripling of the production capacity of its NY chip plant.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that local Germans voted against approving TSLA’s plans to expand its German plant.  TSLA has plans to clear a forest to build warehousing and expand train station capacity.  However, citizens voted against the move in a non-binding (but certainly noticed by politicians) vote.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that the FTC will file suit to block the KR $24.6 billion acquisition of ACI.  The report is expected to be filed next week.  Later, the US Supreme Court declined to hear an AAPL appeal of a 2020 $502.8 million jury verdict over patent infringement.  At the same time, the full appeals court of the heavily conservative 5th circuit agreed to reconsider a ruling by a three-judge panel (of their members) that was in favor of NDAQ.  The earlier ruling allowed the NDAQ rule (requiring Nasdaq-listed companies to disclose their board diversity), which had also been approved by the SEC, to stand ruling against a conservative lawsuit seeking to end the disclosure requirement. Later, FUBO filed suit against DIS, FOX, WBD, and their affiliates alleging anti-trust behaviors.  At the same time, JNJ announced it had received FDA approval for a new biweekly dosing of its TECVAYLI drug.  Later, a US appeals court threw out a $1 billion jury verdict that had been in favor of SONY, UMG, and WMG.  The ruling said the award was not appropriate and a new trial should be held to determine the actual, lower amount of damages.

So far this morning, ALIT, ADI, EXC, GRMN, GIL, PHIN, and UIS all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BLCO, CLH, DINO, NI, OGE, TNL, and VRT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CSTM, VRSK, and WWW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AVA and HSBC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ADI and PRG lowered forward guidance.  However, BLCO raised its guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly (and modestly) in the red with just four of the 12 exchanges in the green.  However, those four were the biggest movers in the region.  Hong Kong (+1.57%), Shanghai (+0.97%), and Thailand (+0.91%) led the gains while Singapore (-0.83%), Australia (-0.66%), and India (-0.64%) paced the more numerous losers.  In Europe, we also see a mixed picture taking shape with six of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.22%), DAX (+0.46%), and FTSE (-0.84%) lead the region on volume as Russia (-1.82%) is the biggest mover in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures point toward another down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.57% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.264% and Oil (WTI) is off a third of a percent to $76.81 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday, we get the FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Bostic (8 a.m.) and Bowman (1 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALIT, ADI, AVA, BLCO, CLH, CSTM, EXC, GRMN, GIL, DINO, HSBC, NI, OGE, PRG, TNL, UIS, UTHR, VRSK, VRT, and WWW.  Then, after the close, AGI, ANSS, APA, AGR, BTG, BALY, CWH, CENX, CAKE, CHRD, CHDN, ETSY, EXAS, FG, FNF, HST, HUN, ICLR, JACK, JXN, KALU, MRO, VAC, MOS, NEXA, NDSN, NTR, NVDA, OGS, OUT, PAAS, RRC, RIVN, RYI, SM, SU, RUN, SNPS, TS, TCOM, TBI, VMI, and WES report.  

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, January Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported, and Fed member Waller speaks.  Finally, on Friday there is no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from AMBP, BHC, BLDR, LNG, D, DRVN, ETR, FCN, GFI, GRAB, GVA, HNI, IBP, IRM, KDP, LAUR, LKQ, MRNA, NMRK, NEM, NICE, OPCH, PCG, PXD, POOL, PRMW, PWR, STWD, FTI, TECK, TFX, TEF, TRN, UPBD, VAL, W, AGCO, AEE, COLD, ACA, BMRN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CTRA, CPRT, EIX, EOG, WTRG, EVH, EXPI, FND, INTU, LYV, MELI, MODV, NE, NOG, NU, OII, ZEUS, PBA, RKT, RHP, SEM, SWN, SFM, SPXC, VALE, VICI, and WKC.  Finally, on Friday, AER, ALIZY, BLMN, CLMT, SSP, FMX, FYBR, GTN, HBM, LAMR, RBA, TAC, and WBD report.

In miscellaneous news, the Greek-flagged ship that was attacked by missile over the weekend (and its crew abandoned ship) reached its destination, Aden Yemen, on Tuesday.  The attack appears to be a mistaken missile attack by the Houthis.  At the same time, Reuters reports that the White House will approve a request by Midwest governors to allow year-round sales of E15 gasoline.  However, the start date of the measure will be in April, 2025.  (E15 sales in summer had been restricted over smog concerns.)  Elsewhere, the Biden Administration announced it will forgive another $1.2 billion in student debt covering more than 150,000 student loan holders.  Finally, mortgage demand dropped sharply last week.  Applications for refinancing fell 11% (week-on-week) and new home purchase loan applications fell 10% on the week as 30-year, fixed-rate, mortgages shot higher from 6.87% to 7.06%.

In economic prediction news, Reuters reported Tuesday afternoon that US interest rate swap options (which are used to hedge interest rate risk) pricing are now skewed in favor of interest rate cuts.  In other words, the interest rate swap options markets are showing increased demand for options that pay off if US interest rates fall (i.e. the Fed cuts rates).  It seems markets are now betting on a hard landing in the short term, which to a trader of such options is in the three-month range.  This falls in line with the timing Fed speakers have been saying and Fed Fund Futures show…just for different reasons.  (The Fed is saying that is when inflation will have proven to be on a trajectory toward 2%.)  For what its worth, Fed Fund Futures now are projecting a 76.6% probability of a first cut in June with a 92.1% chance of a cut by July.  (May rate cut probabilities have fallen to 33%.)

In cyber-crime news, one of the largest hacker groups of all time (Russian-based Lockbit, which specialized in ransomware attacks like the one that shut down Las Vegas a while back) was more or less shut down Tuesday.  The FBI, the UK National Crime Agency, and authorities from 11 different countries seized 11,000 web domains the group used to deploy its malware.  (This was the group responsible for attacking the US arm of the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, causing a $26 billion disruption to the US Treasury market late last year.)

With that background, it appears the Bears are holding on to their control as all three major index ETFs are looking to gap lower although they are all printing indecisive candles in the premarket after the gap. All three are below their T-lines in the premarket. So, the short-term trend is bearish while the longer-term steep bullish trend has been violated or is being tested now. The QQQ has even confirmed a downtrend with a lower-high and lower-low in place. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator sits at the top of its mid-range. So, either side has room to run if they can gather the energy to do so. Continue to watch those 10 Big Dog tech names. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. Right now, eight of the 10 are bearish. Also don’t forget NVDA reports tonight and it just passed TSLA to become the most traded stock on Wall Street. (Meaning NVDA swings a big stick in this market.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was an up-and-down day in the stock market.  SPY opened 0.07% lower, DIA gapped down 0.28%, and QQQ opened 0.10% higher.  All three major index ETFs then sold off for 30 minutes, rallied much more slowly for two hours, sold off again for 75 minutes, rallied again for an hour, sold off sharply for 30 minutes, and then traded sideways in a tight range for 45 minutes before selling off the last few minutes of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied, Bearish Harami, Spinning Top candles in the SPY and DIA.  Both remained above their T-line (8ema).  However, the QQQ printed a large, black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candle that could be seen as an Evening Star pattern if you squint.  It also completed the first down week in any of the three major index ETFs following five straight weeks of gains.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red Technology (-1.16 %) was way out in front (by half of a percent) leading the way lower Basic Materials (+0.35%) and Healthcare (+0.31%) holding up better than other sectors.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.50%, the DIA lost 0.53%, and tech-heavy QQQ dropped 0.91%.  VXX fell 0.28% to close at 14.38 and T2122 dropped back out of the overbought territory to the very top of the mid-range at 78.15.  10-year bond yields spiked back up to 4.283% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.56% to close at $79.22 per barrel.  So, Friday was a volatile day that swung up and down as PPI data came in hot, monthly options expired, and traders got ready for the three-day weekend.  The net result was a down day.  This happened on lower-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs, especially low in the DIA.

The major economic news released Friday included January Building Permits, which came in low at 1.470 million (compared to a forecast of 1.509 million and a December value of 1.493 million).  At the same time, January Housing Starts were down sharply at 1.331 million (versus a forecast of 1.450 million and December 1.562 million value).  Meanwhile, January Core PPI was hotter than expected at +0.5% (compared to a +0.1% forecast and a December reading of -0.1%).  This resulted in a January PPI that was +0.3% (versus a forecast of +0.1% and a December -0.1% reading).  Later, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment was up but just shy of predictions at 79.6 (compared to an 80.0 forecast and a January 79.0 value).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were stronger than anticipated at 78.4 (versus a 76.5 forecast and a 77.1 January reading).  Meanwhile, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations ticked up to 3.0% (versus a 2.9% forecast and January value). Finally, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations also held at 2.9% (compared to the forecast of 2.8% and January reading of 2.9%)

After the close, Monday, RIG beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, JELD missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, DOOR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Friday, NKE clarified its Thursday night announcement of job cuts.  NKE says it will eliminate more than 1,600 jobs, which is about 2% of the company workforce.  Later, LSDI announced it would implement a one-for-ten reverse stock split effective at the open on Monday, February 26.  The move is being made to maintain compliance with NASDAQ rules that require listed stocks to stay above $1.00/share.  (LSDI closed at $0.22 on Friday.)  At the same time, UAW workers at the F truck plant in KY, the company’s largest and most profitable plant, announced they will strike next Friday unless local (plant-specific) issues are resolved.  (These are mostly health and safety issues.)  DB released a research study Monday on the “Magnificent 7” (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSLA).  DB’s study found that if the seven traded as a separate exchange, their combined market cap would make it the second-largest stock exchange in the world.  In addition, if they were their own country, their combined revenue would put them in a dead heat for third amongst the world’s top GDPs, behind the US, China, and in a virtual tie for third with Germany and Japan. In Tuesday morning news, WMT announced it had agreed to buy display maker VZIO for $2.3 billion (all cash) to bolster its in-store ad revenue. Meanwhile, COF announced it will buy DFS for $35.3 billion in an all-stock deal. (DFS stockholders will receive 1.0192 shares of COF in the exchange, which is a 26% premium on Friday’s DFS closing price.)

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, Bloomberg reported Friday that OpenAI has met with the US Commerce Dept. and other agencies looking to gain approval for their plans to make their own AI chips using at least significant investment from Middle Eastern sources.  These cuts began Friday with a second phase coming at the end of Q1.  Later, AMZN joined the companies claiming the NLRB regulatory proceedings were unconstitutional. (The claim seems to be that Federal agencies should only be allowed to sue in Federal court rather than finding facts, enforcing federal laws, and assessing penalties.)  At the same time, the FDA approved the AMTAGVI from IOVA.  That is the first T-cell therapy for solid cancer tumors.  After the close, Reuters reported that JPM has agreed to pay $350 million to two US regulators while negotiations with a third regulator are in an advanced stage.  The charges stem from the bank’s trading practices and providing incomplete trade data to the regulators.  On Monday, the Financial Times reported that the European Commission is set to fine AAPL $539 million over breaches of EU competition laws.  (The case alleges that AAPL hindered third-party music services on its devices and favored its own iTunes service and began after a 2019 complaint was filed by SPOT.)  If eventually paid, this would be AAPL’s largest fine with the previous record $1.23 billion anti-trust fine ordered in France being eventually beaten down through years of appeal to “just” $400 million.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with only four of the 12 exchanges in the red.  (Note that this was after an eight-day, holiday closure for mainland Chinese markets.) Malaysia (+1.10%), Taiwan (+0.63%), Hong Kong (+0.57%) and Singapore (+0.56%) led the region higher.  South Korea (-0.84%) was by far the biggest loser of the session.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with just five of the 15 bourses in the red at midday. The CAC (+0.38%), DAX (-0.12%), and FTSE (+0.23%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.32% open, the SPY is implying a -0.29% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.41% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 4.269% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.45% to $78.83 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to the January US Leading Economic Indicators Index (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALLE, BCS, CNP, DAN, EXPD, FLR, GGB, HD, KBR, LGIH, MDT, MIDD, OMI, MD, SCL, TPH, UFPI, VC, WMT, AND WLK.  Then, after the close, ANDE, BCC, BKD, CZR, CE, CHK, CYH, CSGP, CWK, CVI, FANG, ESI, ENLC, FLS, GFL, GMED, GPK, IFF, JBT, KEYS, LZB, MTDR, MATX, PANW, PSA, QUAD, O, RNG, SUI, TDOC, VIV, TX, TOL, and WSC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get the FOMC Meeting Minutes and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  We also hear from Fed members Bostic and Bowman.  Then Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, January Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported, and Fed member Waller speaks.  Finally, on Friday there is no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ALIT, ADI, AVA, BLCO, CLH, CSTM, EXC, GRMN, GIL, DINO, HSBC, NI, OGE, PRG, TNL, UIS, UTHR, VRSK, VRT, WWW, AGI, ANSS, APA, AGR, BTG, BALY, CWH, CENX, CAKE, CHRD, CHDN, ETSY, EXAS, FG, FNF, HST, HUN, ICLR, JACK, JXN, KALU, MRO, VAC, MOS, NEXA, NDSN, NTR, NVDA, OGS, OUT, PAAS, RRC, RIVN, RYI, SM, SU, RUN, SNPS, TS, TCOM, TBI, VMI, and WES report.  Then, on Thursday, we hear from AMBP, BHC, BLDR, LNG, D, DRVN, ETR, FCN, GFI, GRAB, GVA, HNI, IBP, IRM, KDP, LAUR, LKQ, MRNA, NMRK, NEM, NICE, OPCH, PCG, PXD, POOL, PRMW, PWR, STWD, FTI, TECK, TFX, TEF, TRN, UPBD, VAL, W, AGCO, AEE, COLD, ACA, BMRN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CTRA, CPRT, EIX, EOG, WTRG, EVH, EXPI, FND, INTU, LYV, MELI, MODV, NE, NOG, NU, OII, ZEUS, PBA, RKT, RHP, SEM, SWN, SFM, SPXC, VALE, VICI, and WKC.  Finally, on Friday, AER, ALIZY, BLMN, CLMT, SSP, FMX, FYBR, GTN, HBM, LAMR, RBA, TAC, and WBD report.

So far this morning, HD, MDT, TPH, and WMT reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALLE, CNP, FLR, KBR, MIDD, OMI, and VC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, BCS, DAN, LGIH, MD, SCL, and WLK all missed on both the top and bottom line. It is also worth noting that HD lowered its guidance.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reported Friday that the US is purchasing missed mortgage payments, for military veterans who had used the Covid-19 mortgage forbearance program.  The program is intended to stem a spike in foreclosures on veterans.  Elsewhere, China reported a surge in travel over its week-long Lunar New Year holiday season.  474 million trips were made inside mainland China, which was up 34% compared to 2023 and up 19% from pre-covid 2019.  The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism said total spending by domestic tourists over the holiday season was $87.9 billion.  (However, it should be noted that the holiday was an 8-day event this year, which is one more day than previous Lunar New Year celebrations.)  At the same time, US Natural Gas prices fell sharply again Monday as the commodity faces record US production and also the warmest winter ever recorded (since the 1950s). This has resulted in a 53% decrease in the price of Natural Gas in just the last 30 days.  Finally, a little trivia.  Monday was the 292^nd anniversary of the birth of George Washington.

In geopolitical news, on Saturday, the US Navy said it had carried out five self-defense strikes, taking out three anti-ship missiles, a drone boat, and an underwater drone, all launched from Yemen.  Then Sunday Iranian-backed Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on a British cargo ship (sailing under a Belize flag) in the straight off of Yemen’s coast.  The crew of the vessel abandoned the ship after the attack and the Houthi claim it is at risk of sinking.  (The ship was bound from Saudi Arabia to Bulgaria.)  Finally, on Monday, a US-owned (Greek flagged) bulk carrier called for assistance, saying it was under missile attack in the Gulf of Aden (South of the Red Sea, but near Yemen and en route to it).  Elsewhere, the MAGA House ducked out of town, shirking US leadership of the free world (again), to preserve a political issue for their party’s disgraced leader.  At the same time, that disgraced leader attacked the NATO alliance and threatened to violate US treaty obligations, if elected.  In that vacuum, Russian dictator Putin’s army captured Avdiivka, which was formerly a small Ukrainian city of 33,000 in the Donetsk region. Meanwhile, showing the US what real leadership looks like, Denmark announced Sunday it is sending its entire stockpile (every single shell) of artillery to Ukraine.  The Czech Republic also stepped up by offering 800,000 artillery shells from its tiny military. 

With that background, it appears the Bears are starting the holiday-shortened week in charge. All three major index ETFs are looking to gap lower with the SPY testing its T-line from above, DIA trying to hang on to its own T-line, and QQQ gapping well down through its 8ema. All three are printing indecisive, Dojio-like candles so fat in the premarket. So, the short-term trend has reverted to bearish while the longer-term steep bullish trend has been violated or is being tested now. However, no downtrend has been confirmed…although we do have a lower high in place now. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is too far from its T-line and the T2122 indicator sits at the top of its mid-range. So, either side has room to run if they can gather the energy to do so. Continue to watch those 10 Big Dog tech names. As mentioned above, they represent a huge portion of the market and if they move together in one direction, it’s hard for indexes to go the other way. Right now, nine of the 10 are bearish with only a massive INTC outlier (+3.26%) in the green.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls had control of the large caps all day Thursday but didn’t gain control of the tech-heavy NASDAQ until 11 a.m.  Either way, the rest of the day was bullish.  This started with SPY opening 0.14% higher, DIA gapping 0.24% higher, and QQQ opening 0.17% higher.  At that point, QQQ sold off for 40 minutes and then rode a roller coaster along the lows until 11 a.m.  At that point, it began a modest rally that topped out at 1:30 p.m. and then ground sideways above the open until 3:30 p.m. before selling off back near the open in the last 30 minutes.  Meanwhile, after the higher open, the SPY and DIA rallied strongly in the first hour and then more slowly until 3 p.m. before doing some very modest profit-taking in the last hour.  That gave us large, white-body candles with very small wicks in the SPY and DIA.  At the same time, QQQ printed a white-body Spinning Top candle. 

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green as Energy (+2.69%) was way out in front leading the way higher while Technology (+0.28%) was by far the worst-performing of the sectors. Meanwhile, the SPY gained 0.68%, the DIA gained 1.03%, and tech-heavy QQQ gained just 0.30%.  VXX dropped 1.03% to close at 14.42 and T2122 climbed back into the top half of its overbought territory at 92.41. 10-year bond yields fell back down to 4.244% and Oil (WTI) gained 2.00% to close at $78.17 per barrel.  So, the Bulls were in control again Thursday with the large cap indices getting back within striking distance of their all-time highs and QQQ headed that direction as well.  This all happened on lower-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news released Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit lower than expected at 212k (compared to a forecast of 219k and the prior week’s 220k value).  On the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims side the number was higher than predicted at 1,895k (versus the 1,880k forecast and much higher than the 1,865k previous week’s reading).  At the same time, January Core Retail Sales were far below anticipated at -0.6% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and far below the December +0.4% value).  On the broader headline number, January Retail Sales was also far below expectations at -0.8% (versus a -0.2% forecast and far below the December +0.4% reading).  Meanwhile, January Import and Export Price Indexes both rose by 0.8%, which was much higher than the December -0.7% values.  At the same time, the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index was better than predicted at -2.40 (compared to a -13.70 forecast and dramatically better than January’s -43.70 value).  The Philly Fed Mfg. Index also came in better than anticipated at +5.2 (versus a -8.0 forecast and January’s -10.6 reading).  Later, January Industrial Production came in lower than expected at -0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% and the December value of +0.1%).  Year-on-year this kept us barely positive at +0.03% versus an upwardly revised December Year-on-Year reading of +1.17%.  At the same time, Dec. Business Inventories were just as predicted at +0.4%, which was up from November’s -0.1%.  The December Retail Inventories were lower than expected at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.6% but up significantly from November’s -0.9%).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a modest increase of $3 billion (from $7.631 trillion to $7.634 trillion).

After the close, AEM, AL, AMN, AMAT, DBX, GLOB, IR, OPEN, ROKU, TXRH, and TOST all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BE, BIO, and ED missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DASH, LBTYA, TTD, and TROX beat on revenue while missing on earnings. Unfortunately, LNT, DKNG, DLR, and MERC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMN, BE, DBX, and OPEN lowered forward guidance.  However, ROKU and TTD raised their guidance.

In stock news, VCNX announced a 1-for-14 reverse stock split effective after the close Monday, February 19.  (This is part of the company trying to avoid being delisted for being priced less than $1.00 per share.  VCNX stock closed at $0.88 Thursday.)  At the same time, BRKB revealed it had sold 10 million shares of AAPL in Q4.  However, the company also released a statement saying AAPL is still a core holding and makes up about half of BRKB’s equity holdings.  Later, LCID (an EV maker) slashed the prices of its Air luxury vehicles by between 1% and 10% depending on the model.  At the same time, Open AI announced it is developing an AI-based search product to compete with GOOGL’s namesake Google and MSFT Bing.  Later, META announced it would begin charging 30% service fees to companies seeking to boost their AAPL app store exposure.  In other words, AAPL is charging META 30% on all app ad revenue.  So, since AAPL is now charging fees on all ad revenue generated via the Facebook and Instagram apps delivered via the AAPL app store, META either passes along the 30% fee or pays it out of its own pockets.  (To me, it’s more than a little scary to think AAPL has some way of finding out how much ad revenue META makes from just apps sold via the AAPL app store.) At the same time, LMT announced it was on track to expand production of HIMARS, Javelin, and GMLRS (multiple rocket launch system) weapon systems to meet demand from Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.  (It will increase HIMARS production by more than 50%, increase Javelin production by about the same percent, and GMLRS by about 40% this year.)  After the close, Reuters reported that AAPL plans to launch an AI tool for completing software writing similar to MSFT’s Copilot for Word and Excel.  Also after the close, AMZN announced that Co-founder Bezos has sold another $2.03 billion of AMZN stock for the third time.  This sale was done over the last “few days” and was his third tranche of stock sales this month totaling over $6 billion. Finally, overnight, NKE added itself to the list of companies doing job cuts. NKE announced a roughly 2% reduction in its global workforce.

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, the FDA announced approval for MMSI’s SCOUT surgical guidance system for soft tissue cancer treatment.  At the same time, WATT announced it had passed the FCC compliance process for its wireless charging system for Internet-of-Things devices.  Later, the NHTSA announced that GOOGL’s Waymo unit has recalled 444 self-driving vehicles after two minor collisions in AZ.  The company said this was due to a software error and will be quickly corrected.  At the same time, PFE agreed to pay $93 million to settle antitrust claims made by wholesale drug distributors who accused the company of conspiring with an Indian generic maker to delay the availability of cheaper generic versions of Lipitor.  Later, WFC announced that the US Government has ended a 2016 consent order related to the company’s fake accounts scandal and how the bank has offered and sold accounts since then.  Elsewhere, FINRA fined MS $1.6 million for failing to cancel or close 239 failed inter-dealer municipal bond transactions.   At the same time, ARM and especially SOUN stocks both surged Thursday after NVDA disclosed having stakes in both AI companies.  (SOUN closed up 66.74%.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that the US dept. of Justice will investigate the DIS-FOX-WBD joint streaming platform for sports for potential antitrust violations.

Note that the Chinese markets were closed for Lunar New Year again.  With that said, the rest of the region was mostly green Friday.  Hong Kong (+2.48%), Singapore (+1.42%), and South Korea (+1.34%) led the region higher with only two spots of red out of the 10 open exchanges.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Russia (-0.47%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.56%), DAX (+0.76%), and FTSE (+1.24%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the day.  DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and QQQ implies a +0.51% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.267% and Oil (WTI) is down six-tenths of a percent to $77.52 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Building Permits, Jan. Housing Starts, Jan. Core PPI, and Jan. PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and Fed member Daly speaks at 12:10 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ACDVF, AXL, CNK, POR, PPL, TRP, THS, and VMC.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning, CNK, TRP, and VMC have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, ACDVF, NWG, and THS reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, POR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that THS also lowered its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, Japan and the UK unexpectedly slipped into recession.  This was the second straight quarter of recession in both of the countries.  However, in the US, Presidential Economic Advisor Brainard said the US will not follow them into recession.  Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Bostic seemed to concur with Brainard, saying the US labor market and economy remain strong.  As such, he said there was no rush to cut rates and that, given recent data, victory over inflation was “not (yet) clearly at hand.”  Meanwhile, in China, Bloomberg reports that data it collects annually saw the biggest increase in Lunar New Year travel in the last five years.  Among other data, Bloomberg says rail travel increased 61% over the first six days of the week-long holiday.  The news outlet speculates that this is a potential sign of some resurgence in the Chinese economy which has been struggling with deflation and poor consumer confidence.

In geopolitical news, Russian President Putin’s main critic and theoretically potential rival (who had already been jailed for decades on extremely dubious grounds), died mysteriously in his Northern Siberia prison. (That tends to happen to Putin critics. They are apparently a very criminal and unlucky group of people. On the bright side, he didn’t accidentally fall out of a window.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to push toward a sixth straight week of gains. (SPY and DIA are already green for the week and the premarket gap has QQQ within 0.10% of breakeven for the week.) All three major index ETFs are giving us small, indecisive candles in the early session, after gaps higher in the SPY and especially the QQQ. All three remains above their T-line (8ema) and near all-time highs. So, the trend remains Bullish in both the short and long-term outlooks. In terms of extension, none of the three is too far from their 8ema yet. However, T2122 is now well into the overbought area. This means that we are due a pullback at some point soon. However, not necessarily today, and the market can remain overbought longer than we can stay solvent betting on a reversal too early. Once again, as I’ve been saying for months, keep an eye on those 10 huge tech stocks. If they walk in lock-step, whatever direction they decide to go is very likely to call the tune for the rest of the market. Finally, remember that it is options expirations Friday and that we have a long, 3-day weekend ahead with Markets closed Monday for President’s day. So, prepare for afternoon volatility and get your account ready for the weekend news cycles.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears were in control all day Tuesday.  Premarket was already pointing to a big gap lower and then CPI came in hot causing a double-down on the selling.  SPY gapped down 1.27%, DIA opened 0.80% lower, and QQQ gapped down a whopping 1.84%.  At that point, we saw a divergence with SPY and DIA following through to the downside until about 10:10 a.m. From there, SPY and DIA bounced with a modest but steady rally until 11:35 a.m.  Meanwhile, QQQ rallied back about halfway up its gap by 10:45 a.m.  Then, from those respective points, all three major index ETFs sold off steadily until 3:30 p.m.  However, all three also rallied the last 30 minutes of the day popping into the close.  This action gave us a black-body, long-legged Doji in the SPY, a white-body Spinning Top in the QQQ, and a black-bodied, large Hammer-type candle in the DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red as Basic Materials (-2.78%) was out in front leading the way lower while Consumer Defensive (-1.30%) and Energy (-1.36%) held up better than the rest.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 1.38%, the DIA lost 1.36%, and QQQ lost 1.56%.  VXX spiked 7.05% to close at 15.33 and T2122 plummeted all the way back into oversold territory at 11.76. 10-year bond yields spiked massively to 4.324% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.18% to close at $77.82 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was the most bearish day since the last day of January. With that said, both SPY and QQQ did close back up above their trendlines dating back to late-October lows.  All this happened on a little higher-than-normal volume in all three.

The major economic news released Tuesday was limited but included Jan. Core CPI, which came in hot at +0.4% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and the December +0.3% reading).  This amounted to +3.9% on a Year-on-Year basis (versus a +3.7% forecast and the December +3.9% value).  These led to a January CPI of +0.3% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and a +0.2% December reading).  Annualized, that meant a +3.1% CPI reading (versus a +2.9% forecast but still down from December’s +3.4% value).  Then, after the close, Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks showed a huge (much higher-than-expected) inventory build of 8.520 million barrels (compared to a forecast of +2.600 million barrels and the prior week’s +0.674 million barrels).

In Fed Futures news, after the CPI data, Fed Fund Futures showed a 91.5% probability of no rate change in March (3-20-24).  Meanwhile, 8.5% of rate bets are looking for a quarter-point cut at the March FOMC meeting.  However, for the May 1 meeting, only 28.6% expect rates to remain where they are now.  At the same time, 65.5% expect rates to fall a quarter-point and 5.8% expect rates to fall a full half percent by then.  For the mid-June FOMC meeting, 24.4% of futures traders expect Fed Funds Rates to remain at 5.25-5.50%.  However, 60.1% expect that rate to have fallen a quarter of a percent, 14.6% see rates down a half percent by that point, and just less than 1% expect that rates will have fallen three-quarters of a percent by June 12.  Finally, by the July 31 meeting, there are NO futures bets expecting rates to still be where they are now.  13.8% expect rates to have fallen a quarter percent, 44.6% predict a 0.50% reduction, 34.5% foresee three-quarters of a percent reduction at that point, 6.8% of the futures see a full percent reduction then, and 0.4% actually expect the Fed Funds rate to be down 1.25% by that point.

After the close, ABNB, ALSN, BFAM, DVA, WIRE, ENTG, EQT, GDDY, GXO, HE, IOSP, INVH, LYFT, MCY, MGM, REZI, HOOD, RUSHA, SEB, SSNC, MODG, WCN, and ZG all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AKAM, AIG, CART, MRC, and WELL all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.   On the other side, PRI beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  Unfortunately, QDEL and IAC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ALAM, ALSN, DVA, and WCN raised their forward guidance.  However, ENTG, QDEL, and MODG lowered their guidance.

In stock news, just two days after they broadcasted the most widely-watched Super Bowl of all time, (and the company announced record ad revenue) PARA announced it was laying off 800 employees (3% of workforce).  At the same time, ACN announced an agreement to acquire Insight Sourcing (supply chain consultancy) for an undisclosed sum.  Later, BA said its January delivery was only 27 jets (down 29% from January 2023).  BA also said orders were down, booking just three orders (the least since 2019) and they had order cancellations.  This comes amidst the company’s massive quality/production problems.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that MSFT’s AI copilot is getting mixed reviews from users.  Some of the complaints included mistaken of completely fabricated results in Excel and Word.  Later, flight attendants at ALK authorized a strike with union members already picketing at airports in the US, UK, and Guam.  Elsewhere, DIS subsidiary ESPN reportedly has agreed to a six-year extension of their College Football Playoff exclusive broadcast rights valued at $7.8 billion ($1.3 bill per year).  At the same time, AMZN filed a report with the SEC announcing that founder Bezos had concluded another $2.08 billion sale of AMZN stock.  After the close, WELL said it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 25 properties for a total of $969 million.  (The projects total 3,900 housing units.)  At the same time, TSLA’s Chinese competitor BYD announced it is opening a factory in Mexico to better serve US markets with lower-priced electric vehicles compared to TSLA and US competitors.  Also after the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that WMT is in talks to buy VZIO (display screen and TV maker).  Reportedly, WMT would use the acquisition to greatly expand in-store display screens to bolster its ad sales to brands like KHC, PG, and many, many others.  Reportedly, WMT’s offer is 30% higher than VZIO’s Monday close.

In stock legal, governmental, and regulatory news, a German court found that TSLA violated German union leadership election rules.  The only immediate sanction is that TSLA can’t hold an election for “work council” leadership immediately (when mostly just management employees have been hired).  Later, the FDA warned of two online vendors selling unapproved and misbranded versions of the active ingredients in NVO’s and LLY’s blockbuster weight loss drugs.  (LLY recently sued medical spas and clinics for selling drugs purported to be the same as the prescription versions.)  At the same time, AAPL (iMessage) and MSFT (Bing search engine) won exclusion from EU Tech rules covering “gatekeeper” platforms.  This gives those products cost and distribution advantages over competing products from GOOGL, META, and others.  Later, Mexican antitrust regulators said an investigation has preliminarily determined that AMZN and MELI (which together control more than 85% of online transactions in the country) are violating antitrust regulations.  The report said the two present “practically insurmountable barriers” to competitors.  At the same time, CPB moved closer to approval of its acquisition of SOVO by certifying FTC compliance requests for the deal.  This leads to a 30-day waiting period (ending March 11), after which the deal can be finalized.  Later, Reuters reported that the CA Air Resources Board had rejected an STLA bid to have rival’s emissions deals with the state voided.  (The rivals involved, whose emissions deals with the state will stand are HMC, VLKAF, VLVLY, and F.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that a US federal judge set an October 2026 trial date for the FTC (and 17 states) antitrust lawsuit against AMZN.

Note that the Chinese markets were closed for Lunar New Year and will stay closed all week as well.  The rest of Asia was mixed but leaned to the red side,  South Korea (-1.10%), Australia (-0.74%), and Japan (-0.69%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a completely different story with green across the board at midday.  (This was likely helped by the release of UK inflation data showing prices holding in place in January.)  The CAC (+0.63%), DAX (+0.40%), and FTSE (+0.93%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.49% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.65% open as of this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.304% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter percent to $78.07 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AVTR, AVNT, GOLD, BGC, CAE, CRL, CHEF, CME, CNHI, DBD, ES, GNRC, GPN, IQV, KHC, LAD, LPX, MLM, NHYDY, OC, PSN, R, SITE, SAH, SUN, TMHC, WAB, and WMB.  Then, after the close, ALB, ATUS, AWK, AR, APP, ACGL, CF, CC, CSCO, CW, ET, EQIX, HLF, HUBS, KGC, MTW, MFC, OXY, PTEN, CNXN, ROL, SON, SUM, TWLO, TYL, VTR, and WFG report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Jan. Core Retail Sales, Jan. Retail Sales, Jan. Import Price Index, Jan. Export Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, Jan. Industrial Production, Dec. Business Inventories, Dec. Retail Inventories, the Fed Balance Sheet, and Fed member Bostic speaks.  Finally, on Friday, Jan. Building Permits, Jan. Housing Starts, Jan. Core PPI, Jan. PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Fed member Daly speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Thursday, HOUS, ARCH, CBRE, CVE, CRBG, CROX, DE, DNB, EPAM, GTX, GPC, GEO, HBI, H, NSIT, KELYA, KNF, LH, LECO, DNOW, OGN, PBF, PENN, RS, RPRX, SABR, SN, SO, SPTN, STLA, SLVM, TRGP, USFD, VNT, WEN, WST, YETI, ZBRA, AEM, AL, LNT, AMN, AMAT, BIO, BE, ED, DLR, DASH, DKNG, DBX, GLOB, IR, LBTYA, MERC, OPEN, ROKU, TXRH, TOST, TTD, and TROX report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ACDVF, AXL, CNK, POR, PPL, TRP, THS, and VMC.

In political news, the Senate passed the $95.3 billion foreign aid package (giving support to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan) after having removed the border/immigration provisions the GOP wanted and then decided needed to be removed to preserve the political issue. The bill passed in the Senate by a super-majority of 70-29.  However, Speaker of the House Johnson immediately said he won’t bring the measure to a vote (saying this is because it does not include the border provisions that he and his caucus refused just last week).  Analysts do say there are enough votes in the House to overrule the Speaker’s refusal to bring the bill to a vote, meant to preserve the US position in the world. However, timing will be an issue. Meanwhile, the House did vote to charge (impeach) DHS Sec. Mayorkas by a 214-213 vote. (Four members were out for medical reasons and the rest of the seats were vacant…one flipping toward Dems later Tuesday night.) This political stunt is very likely to be dismissed by a simple majority vote in the Senate.  (Even if a Senate trial were to take place, there is zero chance of the MAGA types gaining a two-thirds vote to actually impeach. However, again, that was never the idea (getting something done).  Instead, the GOP idea is just to have this impeachment as an issue to talk about for three weeks while the Senate is adjourned.)  Meanwhile, we have March 1 and March 8 deadlines for a government shutdown because the House has not found time to do their work from last September.

In stock wild ride news, LYFT had an incredible wild ride Tuesday. It reported after the bell and was up almost 64% in post-market trading on the news. It did settle back down to end up only gaining 13.39%. So, that was definitely a roller coaster. So far in pre-market, LYFT is up another 6.5%.

So far this morning, AVTR, AVNT, CRL, CME, CNHI, GPN, IQV, LPX, NATL, OC, PSN, R, SITE, SONY, TMHC, and WMB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, GOLD, KHC, LAD, and MLM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SAH, SUN, and WAB all beat on revenue while missing on earnings. There are no reports of missed on both lines yet today.  It is worth noting that GPN, MLM, SONY, and WMB lowered guidance. However, PSN, raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to reclaim some ground at least in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session higher and are putting in white body and decisive (still inside day) candles compared to Tuesday’s action. The SPY and QQQ also have both climbed back above their respective T-lines (8ema) this morning. The trend still remains Bullish with only DIA have broken its uptrend (and that break was not yesterday). In terms of extension, none of the three is too far from their 8ema yet. However, T2122 is now well into the oversold area. So, at least a bounce is in order soon, but that does not have to mean today. In addition, there is enough slack for either the Bulls or Bears to push today of they find the energy. Once again, as I’ve been saying for months, keep an eye on those 10 huge tech stocks. If they walk in lock-step, whatever direction they decide to go is very likely to call the tune for the rest of the market. (On Tuesday they walked down and set the tone for everything else.) So far in this early session, they are green across the board.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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