Markets were undecided on Tuesday with SPY opening 0.12% higher, DIA opening 0.17% lower, and QQQ opening 0.17% higher.  From that point, SPY and QQQ traded sideways, wandering back and forth across the open gap until noon.  DIA also traded sideways in a very tight range along the open for 60 minutes.  Then DIA sold off for 90 minutes before resuming its sideways trading.  Then, at noon, all three major index ETFs made a modest (20-degree) rally the rest of the day.  This left all three as indecisive candles.  SPY and QQQ both printed white-bodied Inside Day Hammer candles.  At the same time, DIA printed a gap-down, black-bodied Doji-type candle.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in DIA and QQQ and slightly below-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Communication Services (+1.30%) way out in front leading the way higher.  At the same time, Financial Services (-0.14%) and Industrials (-0.10%) were the worst-performing sectors.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 0.29%, DIA lost 0.27%, and QQQ gained 0.41%.  Meanwhile, VXX was off by 2.90% to close at 14.08 and T2122 climbed a bit but remained in the upper side of its midrange at 73.33.  10-year bond yields climbed back to 4.136% and Oil (WTI) fell just a bit to close at $74.50 per barrel.  So, after a mixed, flat open the market was pretty much undecided and lethargic on the day.  The Bulls had a slight advantage for the afternoon.  (It is worth noting that the big Tech names were all green but only ranged from INTC (+1.39%) to AMD (+0.14%).

The major economic news on Tuesday was limited to the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report, which showed a significantly larger drawdown than expected at -6.674 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 3.000-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 0.483-million-barrel increase). 

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Reuters provided a summary of the FOMC voters’ most recent statements.  However, note that some of these quotes are older than others.  Atlanta Fed President Bostic (dove) said, “If we continue to see a further accumulation of downside surprises in the data it’s possible for me to get comfortable to advocate normalization sooner than the third quarter. But the evidence would need to be convincing.”  NY Fed President Williams (centrist) said, “It will only be appropriate to dial back the degree of policy restraint when we are confident that inflation is moving toward 2% on a sustained basis.”  Fed Governor Waller (centrist) has said, “The key thing is the economy is doing well. It is giving us the flexibility to move carefully and methodically.”  Fed Vice-Chair Barr (centrist) has said, “The Fed is at or near the peak of interest rates.”  Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson said, “We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough, against the risk of policy being too restrictive.” Fed Governor Cook (centrist) has said, “I see risks as two-sided, requiring us to balance the risk of not tightening enough against the risk of tightening too much.”  San Francisco Fed President Daly recently said, “It takes patience. It takes gradualism.”  Cleveland Fed President Mester (hawk) said, “March is probably too early in my estimation for a rate decline.”  Richmond Fed President Barkin (hawk) said, “Getting inflation under control is critically important.”  Fed Governor Bowman (hawk) said, “While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be sufficiently restrictive … I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate further at a future meeting.”  Finally, Fed Chair Powell (centrist) said, “Declaring victory would be premature … But of course the question is when will it become appropriate to begin dialing back?”

After the close, CNI, EWBC, ISRG, LRN, and TXN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, BKR missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NFLX and STLD both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that NFLX raised forward guidance while TXN lowered its guidance.

In stock news, FSR said Tuesday that it expects to deliver the remaining 5,000 vehicles produced in 2023 by the end of Q1, through its new network of 100 dealers in the US, Canada, and Europe.  At the same time, in addition to its earnings, NFLX announced a $5 billion, 10-year deal to broadcast WWE’s weekly program.  Later, SNY agreed to buy INBX in a stock and cash deal worth $2.2 billion.  Elsewhere, GOLD announced that it is accelerating the expansion of its copper mine in Zambia.  This will make that mine one of the largest copper mines in the world.  At the same time, PLUG announced its Georgia “green hydrogen” (liquid hydrogen) plant is now operational.  Later, LUV flight attendants voted to authorize a strike by at 98% margin.  Meanwhile, UAL said it is no longer counting on BA’s 737 MAX 10 jets.  This announcement comes after more BA delays and plane groundings have pushed back delivery schedules that were already years behind schedule.  While UAL did not cancel its orders (at least yet), the airline has removed those planes from its internal plans, saying it believes recent production quality issues will delay certification yet another year.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAPL has reduced the number of features and delayed the release of its “Apple Car” until at least 2028.  (AAPL had previously announced it would develop an autonomous self-driving car by 2026.  The original plan was for a level 4-5 self-driving capability.  The new plan is for level 2+.)  After the close, SAP announced a restructuring that will “impact” 8,000 employees worldwide.  Some of the job cuts will be implemented through voluntary leave programs while many other employees will be “reskilled and transferred” within the company.  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that WBA is exploring the sale of its “Shields Health Solutions” unit for roughly $4 billion.  Finally, EBAY announced Tuesday evening that it will lay off 9% of its workforce or about 1,000 employees.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the Dept. of Justice requested data from SIX and FUN related to their merger (announced in November).  Later, the FDA asked drugmakers GILD, JNJ, BMY, LEGN, and NVS to add a serious warning label to their cancer therapies that use “CAR-T” technology.  (This comes after recent reports of patients treated with genetically engineered CAR-T technologies developing different cancers than the one the drug was treating.)  Later, AAPL asked a British Competition Tribunal to throw out a $1 billion class-action type lawsuit brought by more than 1,500 app developers alleging AAPL’s 30% fee and monopoly on iPhone app stores are anti-competitive. At the same time, JNJ announced it has reached a tentative settlement to resolve investigations by 42 states and the District of Columbia into whether the company misled consumers about the safety of its talc products. Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement included a $700 million payment.  The CEO of ALK told NBC news that the company had reported finding many BA 737 MAX 9 planes with loose bolts to the FAA and Dept. of Transportation.  At the same time, ADM was hit with an accounting probe.  This caused ADM shares to plummet 24% on Monday, rebounding slightly (+1.20%) on Tuesday.  Later, NMR was sued by a former employee, claiming she was paid less relative to men, and was fired for insisting that the company stop discriminating against women.  After the close, CACI was awarded a US Army contract for $900 million.  Also after the close, BA announced its CEO will meet with US Senators who are investigating the ALK airline mid-air panel blowout and loose bolts.  Finally, an Oregon jury ordered a subsidiary of BRKB to pay $62.3 million to nine property owners whose properties were damaged by wildfires found to have been caused by the company’s negligence in dealing with power lines.  (This is the first of many trials from 5,000 home and business owners whose properties were damaged by the 2020 fires.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, with Japan (-0.80%) and South Korea (-0.36%) the only red in the region. Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+3.56%), Thailand (+1.82%), and Shanghai (+1.80%) led the nine gainers.  (China roared back after the PBOC announced policy easing in an attempt to boost their economy.)  In Europe, we see a similar picture with only Russia (-0.59%) and Norway (-0.09%) in the red.  At the same time, The CAC (+0.90%), DAX (+1.27%), and FTSE (+0.39%) lead the region higher.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.22% open, the SPY is implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.70% open at this hour.  Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.107% and Oil (WTI) is off a quarter of a percent to $74.18 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Wednesday include ABT, APH, ASML, T, BOKF, ELV, FCX, GD, KMB, EDU, PGR, SAP, TEL, TDY, and TXT.  However, after the close, AMP, CACI, COLB, CNXC, CCI, CSX, HXL, IBM, KNX, LRCX, LVS, LVRO, LBRT, PKG, PLXS, RJF, RMD, STX, NOW, TSLA, URI, and WRB report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Dec. Goods Trade Balance, Dec. Retail Inventories, Dec. New Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get the Dec. Core PCE Price Index, Dec. PCE Price Index, Dec. Personal Spending, and Dec. Pending Home Sales.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ALK, AAL, AIT, BX, BFH, CRS, CMCSA, CFR, DOW, EXP, HUM, HZO, MMC, MKC, MBLY, MUR, NEE, NOK, NOC, ORI, BPOP, SDVKY, SHW, LUV, STM, UNP, VLO, VLY, XEL, XRX, AJG, COF, INTC, KLAC, LHX, LEVI, OLN, TMUS, V, WAL, WDC, AND WY.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, BAH, CL, FCNCA, GNTX, and NSC report.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, BAC analysts reported that hedge funds were net buyers of stocks last week for the first time in 10 weeks.  The analysis said that the net was $554 million of stock added to hedge fund portfolios.  Elsewhere, bond icon Bill Gross told Bloomberg that the Fed needed to end Quantitative Tightening and begin cutting rates soon.  Gross said the window to do this (to preserve the soft landing) was this year.  Later, Bloomberg reported that India’s stock market has surpassed Hong Kong’s market (by $4.33 trillion versus $4.29 trillion).  This makes India the fourth largest stock market globally, behind the US, China, and Japan.  (Hong Kong, France, and the UK follow those top four.)  Finally, TM Chairman Toyoda told an interview Tuesday that he believes electric-only vehicles will reach a maximum of 30% of the market, with the rest of the market made up of hybrid, hydrogen, and traditional-fuel cars.  Part of his reasoning was explained that 1 billion people in the world still live without electricity (and many, many more without reliable electricity), which makes EV cars a non-starter for that portion of the world.

So far this morning, ABT, ASML, ELV, EDU, and SF all reported beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, T and SAP both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, TXT, TDY, and TEL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, KMB and GD missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ELV and EDU both raised forward guidance while ASML, T, and KMB lowered guidance.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket session. All three are also printing white-bodied candles, which although small, are at the top of their range so far in the early session. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ remain above their T-line (8ema) and sitting at (or near in the case of DIA) all-time highs. So, obviously, the Bulls are in control of the trend in the short term. In the longer term, we are also clearly bullish in all three. In terms of extension, the QQQ is stretched above its T-line after the premarket gap, while the other major index ETFs are still inside the normal range. The T2122 indicator is also still sitting in its midrange. So, both sides have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. As I’ve been saying for some time, keep watching those Tech Big Dogs. If they make a move as a group, it is almost impossible for the rest of the market to do anything but follow given their trading volumes. As of 7:45 a.m., all of them are looking to gap higher and all but two of them are printing white-bodied premarket candles.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls were in control from the jump on Friday. SPY gapped up 0.26%, DIA opened 0.28% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.51%.  From that point, all three major index ETFs rallied steadily higher before plateauing in the last 90 minutes of the day, near their highs.  This action gave us gap-up, large, white-bodied candles in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. All three closed at new all-time high closes after printing new all-time highs during the day.  SPY and QQQ have almost no wicks while DIA had some wick on both ends.  That meant that all three were above their T-lines (8ema).  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in DIA and QQQ and slightly below-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.36%) out in front leading the way lower.  At the same time, Consumer Defensive (-0.40%) and Financial Services (-0.46%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost just 0.56%.  Meanwhile, VXX gained 3.65% to close at 15.92 and T2122 dropped even further into the oversold territory at 6.25.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.102% and Oil (WTI) rose 0.60% to close at $72.83 per barrel.  So, after a significant gap lower, Mr. Market was indecisive with a very modest bias toward the bullish side.  This happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY, and average volume in both the QQQ and DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+2.00%) way out in front leading the way higher.  At the same time, Consumer Defensive (-0.29%) was by far the worst-performing sector and the only one in the red.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained 1.01%, and QQQ gained 1.98%.  Meanwhile, VXX fell 2.53% to close at 15.00 and T2122 climbed back up into the upper side of its midrange at 69.04.  10-year bond yields spiked to 4.13% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.50% to close at $73.71 per barrel.  So, after a significant gap higher at the open, Mr. Market was dead set on achieving that all-time high in the SPY, led by the AI-crazed Tech big dogs (AMD was up 7.11%, NVDA up 4.17%, INTC up 3.03%, GOOGL up 2.02%, META up 1.95%, AAPL up 1.55%, MSFT up 1.22%, and AMZN up 1.20%).  Even beleaguered TSLA gained 0.15%.

The major economic news on Friday included December Existing Home Sales, which came in a bit lower than expected at 3.78 million (versus a forecast and November value of 3.82 million).  On a month-on-month basis, that was a 1.0% decline compared to a forecasted +0.3% and the prior month’s +0.8%.  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was stronger than anticipated at 78.8 (versus a 70.0 forecast and December’s 69.7).  Meanwhile, Michigan Consumer Expectations also far exceeded the predictions at 75.9 (compared to a 67.0 forecast and a 67.4 December reading).  At the same time, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were down at 2.9% (versus the forecast and prior value of 3.1%).  On a 5-year outlook, the Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations also came in lower than expected at 2.8% (compared to a 3.0% forecast and the previous reading of 2.9%).

In Fed news, San Francisco Fed President Daly said Friday that she believes FOMC policy “is in a good place” now and that risks have become more balanced.  She said, “We have to calibrate very carefully to ensure that we continue to bring inflation down and we ensure that we do it gently, as gently as we possibly can.”  Daly went on to say, “The risks to the economy are balanced, and the risks to both sides of our mandate are balanced.”  She concluded by saying, “So while I think it’s appropriate for us to look forward and ask when would policy adjustments be necessary so we don’t put a stranglehold on the economy, it’s really premature to think that that’s (speaking of rate cuts) around the corner.”

In stock news, the CEO of STLA told an audience Friday that his company will not sell electric vehicles below cost to boost sales the way TSLA and other competitors do.  He said, “I am trying to avoid a race to the bottom.” He went on to imply that TSLA stocks’ slide since last summer was a result of price cuts to maintain sales.  At the same time, SCGLY (major French bank Societe Generale) announced it would cut hundreds of jobs in France in order to cut costs.  Later, CVX announced it plans to sell its Canadian Duvernay Shale natural gas business between now and 2028.  CVX hopes to get between $10 billion and $15 billion for the unit.  Elsewhere, F announced it is reducing the production of F-150 Lightning pickups starting April 1.  However, at the same time, F said it is adding a third shift of production for Bronco SUVs and Ranger pickups. (This means no job cuts with employees transferred rather than laid off.)  After the close, BX announced its acquisition of TCN for $3.5 billion ($11.25 per share).

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a major Chinese bank (ICBC) agreed to pay $32.4 million to the Fed in penalties for unauthorized use and disclosure of confidential supervisory information. At the same time, Reuters reported that the AMZN acquisition of IRBT will be blocked by the EU Antitrust regulator. (IRBT shares plunged nearly 27% on the story.)  Later, the EPA sent its proposed standards calling for major reductions in new vehicle emissions to the White House for review.  (The auto industry lobbying group called the standards “neither reasonable nor achievable.”  Meanwhile, TSLA and environmental groups called on even tougher standards.)  At the same time, a class-action shareholder suit was filed against VNET alleging the company provided false and misleading information about financial stability. Later, Reuters reported that the FDA had found new manufacturing and quality control problems at a LLY plant in NJ.  (LLY released a statement saying that it has asked the FDA for “added flexibility” to manufacture a migraine medicine at a different production line in light of the findings.)  Elsewhere, a federal Court of Appeals upheld a previous ruling in favor of UEIC which prevents ROKU from importing and selling streaming products that were found to violate UEIC’s patents.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the European Commission has asked for public comment on AAPL’s offer to settle EU antitrust charges by opening up its “tap and go” payment technology to rivals.  (By this, they mean they want competitor comments.)  Later, the CDC warned against charcuterie meat being sold at COST and WMT after a multi-state salmonella outbreak. The private brand in question issued a “voluntary recall” after the announcement.  At the same time, JBLU and SAVE filed an appeal of a federal judge’s ruling that blocked the tie-up that the Dept. of Justice opposed and the FTC both had previously blocked. Later, a US court approved $20.8 billion in claims made by 17 creditors, including COP, to be paid from proceeds of an auction of Venezuelan-owned Citgo Petroleum.  The first bids on the auction of the assets of Citgo are due Monday.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with the exception of Chinese markets which were all three down sharply.  (This fall was said to be due to market expectations of a rate cut by the PBOC, which kept rates steady.  As a result, China tightened liquidity in the offshore foreign exchange market while selling US Dollars onshore to stabilize the Yuan.)  Shenzhen (-3.50%), Shanghai (-2.68%), and Hong Kong (-2.27%) were far and away the biggest losers.  Meanwhile, Japan (+1.62%), Taiwan (+0.76%), and Australia (+0.75%) paced the gainers.  In Europe, except two small exchanges, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.42%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.18%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA lags as it implies a +0.16% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.58% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.096% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.42% to $73.72 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the December Index of US Leading Economic Indicators (10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Monday.  However, after the close, BRO, LOGI, UAL, and ZION report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get API Weekly Crude Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories. On Thursday, Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Dec. Goods Trade Balance, Dec. Retail Inventories, Dec. New Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get the Dec. Core PCE Price Index, Dec. PCE Price Index, Dec. Personal Spending, and Dec. Pending Home Sales.

In earnings news later this week, on Tuesday we hear from MMM, DHI, ERIC, GE, HAL, IVZ, JNJ, LMT, PCAR, PG, RTX, SYF, VZ, WBS, BKR, CNI, EWBC, ISRG, NFLX, STLD, LRN, and TXN.  Then Wednesday, ABT, APH, ASML, T, BOKF, ELV, FCX, GD, KMB, EDU, PGR, SAP, TEL, TDY, TXT, AMP, CACI, COLB, CNXC, CCI, CSX, HXL, IBM, KNX, LRCX, LVS, LVRO, LBRT, PKG, PLXS, RJF, RMD, STX, NOW, TSLA, URI, and WRB report.  On Thursday, we hear from ALK, AAL, AIT, BX, BFH, CRS, CMCSA, CFR, DOW, EXP, HUM, HZO, MMC, MKC, MBLY, MUR, NEE, NOK, NOC, ORI, BPOP, SDVKY, SHW, LUV, STM, UNP, VLO, VLY, XEL, XRX, AJG, COF, INTC, KLAC, LHX, LEVI, OLN, TMUS, V, WAL, WDC, AND WY.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, BAH, CL, FCNCA, GNTX, and NSC report.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, Axios reported the results of an Axios – Harris poll of 2,120 US adults conducted in mid-to-late December.  According to the poll, 63% of Americans rate their own current financial situation as “good” or “very good.”  At the same time, 66% expect 2024 to be better than 2023 economically and a whopping 85% feel their personal financial situation will be better at the end of the year than at the end of 2023.  Part of the reason for that is that 63% of respondents feel their job security is “a sure thing.”  I guess the moral of the story is that things may not be as bad as some report.  Elsewhere, on Friday, the bipartisan tax cut deal (restoring research and development deductions for business and child tax credits for families) passed out of the Ways and Means Committee by a vote of 40-3.  Perhaps due to the GOP House majority, the tax cuts lean heavily in favor of businesses with child tax credits growing at $100 per year to just $2,000 in 2025.  (For reference, those deductions were $3,600 per child in 2021.)  Interestingly, Congress reports that only $399 million of the $77.5 in reduced revenue will add to the federal deficit.  This is because their estimates assume $77.1 billion in savings will be obtained from previous fraudulent COVID-relief claims.  (Although, I have no idea what this has to do with the tax cuts and I won’t hold my breath that they actually recover that much.)

In other news, MSFT reported that Russian state-sponsored hackers had broken into company systems to spy on top company executives.  The breach resulted in some lost emails and documents from senior staff.  Elsewhere, the Biden Administration issued another purchase of 3.2 million barrels of oil to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  (Delivery is in April for this batch.)  At the same time, in what may become a much wider trend, 26 states (led by deep red TX) asked a US Appeals Court to delay deciding whether or not to block a US Dept. of Labor rule until after the US Supreme Court decided whether (and, if so, how) to black the executive branch from issuing rules (and interpreting the law) to achieve laws.  SCOTUS is expected to announce its decision on the matter in June.  (The lawsuit in question seeks to block retirement plans from being allowed to consider ESG factors in any way when choosing where to invest retirement funds and the suit was brought by Republicans because the Dept. of Labor does not explicitly forbid retirement funds from considering those factors.)

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket session. However, all three are also printing small, white-bodied candles so far in the early session indicating some indecision early. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ remain above their T-line (8ema) and sitting at all-time highs, obviously the Bulls are in control of the trend in the short-term. In the longer term, we are also clearly bullish in all three. In terms of extension, the QQQ is getting a little stretched above its T-line, while the other major index ETFs are still well inside the normal range. The T2122 indicator is also sitting in its midrange. So, both sides have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. As I’ve been saying for some time, keep watching those Tech Big Dogs. If they make a move as a group, it is almost impossible for the rest of the market to do anything but follow given their trading volumes.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets followed Asia and Europe down by gapping lower at the open again.  The SPY opened 0.65% lower, DIA gapped down 0.49%, and QQQ opened 0.80% lower. At that point, SPY meandered sideways following the opening level the entire day. Meanwhile, DIA roamed back and forth across its gap the entire day.  For its part, QQQ sold off after the open but from 10 a.m. until the close it traded in a bullish trend the rest of the day, closing very near the high of the day and inside its morning gap.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY printed a gap-down Spinning Top with most of its wick below the body.  DIA printed a larger, white-bodied Spinning Top with most of its wick above the body.  QQQ split the difference, printing a larger white-bodied Spinning Top with most of its wick below the body and retested its T-line (8ema) from below after the gap down.  It did close just above that T-line.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.36%) out in front leading the way lower.  At the same time, Consumer Defensive (-0.40%) and Financial Services (-0.46%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost just 0.56%.  Meanwhile, VXX gained 3.65% to close at 15.92 and T2122 dropped even further into the oversold territory at 6.25.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.102% and Oil (WTI) rose 0.60% to close at $72.83 per barrel.  So, after a significant gap lower, Mr. Market was indecisive with a very modest bias toward the bullish side.  This happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY, and average volume in both the QQQ and DIA.

The major economic news on Wednesday included December Core Retail Sales, which came in much stronger than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast and Nov. readings of +0.2%).  For the broader, Dec. Retail Sales things also came in above what was anticipated at +0.6% (versus a forecast of +0.4% and the Nov. value of +0.3%).  At the same time, the December Import Price Index was flat at 0.0% (versus a forecast and November of -0.5%).  In addition, the Dec. Export Price Index fell more than predicted at -0.9% (compared to a -0.6% forecast but in line with November’s -0.9% reading).  Later, Dec. Industrial Production (year-on-year) increased at +0.98% (versus a 2023 reading of -0.62%).  On a month-on-month basis, the Dec. Industrial Production grew more than expected at +0.1% (compared to a 0.0% forecast down also down from November’s +0.2%).  After that, Nov. Business Inventories came in as predicted at -0.1% (versus the -0.1% forecast and October reading).  At the same time, Nov. Retail Inventories were down more than anticipated at -0.9% (compared to a -0.8% forecast but in line with the October -0.9% value).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a modest inventory build of 0.483 million barrels (versus a forecast calling for a 2.400-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 5.215-million-barrel drawdown.

In Fed news, the Fed Beige Book showed steady to slightly improved economic activity and employment levels.  This included stable or declining input costs, more than half of the Fed districts having steady employment levels, and retailers adjusting profit margins in response to the changing costs.  Earlier, Fed Governor Bowman said the proposed plan to increase bank capital requirements has some shortcomings.  Still, she was optimistic policymakers and the banking industry advocates could compromise.  (It is worth noting that Bowman had voted against the rules which passed anyway back in July.)

After the close, AA and FUL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  (It is worth noting that AA’s beat was just less of a loss than expected.)  At the same time, DFS, SNV, and WTFC all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, KMI missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, after settling the lawsuit related to how majority owner BRKB was doing valuation accounting, BRKB bought out the remaining 20% of the Pilot Truck Stop business from the Haslam family.  (Terms were not disclosed.)  At the same time, DOOR announced it had ended its bid to acquire PGTI.  Later, ALSN employees voted to ratify the previously tentative contract the UAW had negotiated with the company. (82% voted in favor of the deal, which offers a $20/hour starting wage and a 6%-8% increase in company contributions to 401k accounts.)  At the same time, AMD said it has cut the price of its Radeon RX 7900 XT graphics card by $40 (originally $809, then $749 and now sold at $709) to better compete with NVDA products.  Elsewhere, ALB (the world’s largest lithium producer) announced Wednesday that it will cut jobs, and push off one new project as part of cost-cutting it said was driven by falling lithium prices.  At the same time, VZ announced that it will take a $5.8 billion write-down of its wire-based unit amidst increased competition from wireless services.  Later, TSLA slashed the price of its Model Y cars in Europe (between 8% and 9%).  At the same time, Reuters reported that AAPL topped Korea’s Samsung as the top seller of smartphones.  AAPL had a 20.0% market share in 2023 compared to Samsung’s 19.4%.  (Interestingly, QCOM and Samsung jointly announced a new S24 line of phones that include a QCOM chip and will come with GOOGL generative AI built-in.)

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the FAA announced Wednesday that it had completed inspection of the first 40 (of 171 total) BA 737 MAX 9 jets.  (This was just data collection.  The data from the inspection still needs to be reviewed.)  In the UK, British antitrust regulators won a court appeal over data requests to BMWYY (BMW motors) and VLKAF (Volkswagen), which the companies had sought to block.  At the same time, GOOGL announced it will tweak search results in Europe to comply with EU rules to treat rival services and products the same as its own listings.  Later, the NTSB announced that if a partial government shutdown takes effect on Friday, it will be forced to suspend the probe into the ALK airline BA 737 MAX 9 jet losing a portion of its fuselage in flight.  Elsewhere, the US Court of Appeals rejected AAPL’s appeal and ordered the ban on importation of AAPL watches effective at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday.  (Lower courts found that AAPL violated the patent rights of MASI by putting MASI-designed oxygen sensors in their watches without paying MASI.)  Later, a unit of SBGI signed a deal with creditors to emerge from bankruptcy by getting funding from AMZN as part of a streaming sports content deal.  The deal must still be approved by the bankruptcy court, but this is expected since creditors are now on board.  After the close, ARAV announced it will delist from the NASDAQ and dissolve the company by selling company assets to satisfy creditors.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Shenzhen (+1.00%), Hong Kong (+0.75%), Shanghai (+0.43%), and Taiwan (+0.38%) led the rebound from a tough Wednesday while Malaysia (-0.81%) and Australia (-0.63%) dragged on the rally.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Russia (-0.01%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.94%), DAX (+0.73%), and FTSE (+0.23%) led a broad-based rally in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a much better start than earlier in the week.  The DIA implies a flat open at -0.01%, the SPY is implying a +0.42% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.76% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.088% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $72.50 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Dec. Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Housing Starts, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (7:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FAST, FHN, KEY, MTB, NTRS, TSM, and TFC.  Then, after the close, JBHT, and PPG report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get Dec. Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations as well a Fed member Daly speaking.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ALLY, CMA, FITB, HBAN, RF, SLB, STT, and TRV report.

In miscellaneous news, the National Assoc. of Builders reported Wednesday that the confidence of Builders jumped 7 points this month to 44 on its index as optimism flowed from falling mortgage rates and signs of an improving economy.  However, 31% of the surveyed group still reported cutting prices to boost sales.  (That is down from 36% who were cutting price in both December and November.)  Meanwhile, China reported that its population fell in 2023, making it the second consecutive population decline.  The Chinese population now stands at 1.4 billion after a spike to 11.1 million deaths following the lifting of COVID restrictions in that country.  Meanwhile, Chinese births fell 5.6% to 9 million.  (2023 was China’s seventh-straight year of decline in births.)  This leads to concerns over the potential growth of the world’s second-largest economy as faltering demographics point to higher costs for retirement benefits and increasing competition for a shrinking labor pool could also mean higher labor costs.

In Government-related news, on Wednesday, President Biden hosted a negotiation session over the $110 billion package that will include aid to Ukraine, and Israel, as well as funds for the US border.  It was a large meeting with the leadership of both parties in both houses of Congress as well as all the key committee leaders in attendance.  After the meeting, attendees were upbeat and hoped for an agreement soon.  However, House Speaker Johnson made a point of saying there will be no compromise on immigration.  Elsewhere, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposed cutting credit card overdraft fees to a maximum of $3.00.  This is much lower than the current average of $26.00.  Banks immediately responded that they have already cut other fees and there is no reason to cut overdraft fees.  (The bankers did not mention the potential impact on bank profits.)  Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court heard arguments Wednesday on what is called the “Chevron deference.”  This is a long-standing (since 1984) position of the courts that when there is a dispute over the interpretation of a regulation, the deference goes to the regulators (executive agencies) that wrote those regulations.  The case at hand challenges the executive branch’s ability to regulate fishing.  (Specifically, whether fishermen must pay for tracking devices that make sure they were not fishing in protected areas that had been set as off limits to protect fish populations.) The plaintiff seeks to overturn the “Chevron deference” to make it such that only laws and rules explicitly passed by Congress could be enforced by the executive branch.  This would have massive implications, overturning a huge part of government regulation and forcing Congress to visit every single issue and interpretation of every law.  Even with that said, the questioning by justices led many observers to feel that the court is split with many of the conservative-packed court members strongly in favor of stripping all federal agencies of the power to regulate anything not explicitly laid out by Congress.  While it is possible to argue the issue on both sides, the idea of Congress getting into every detail would likely lead to a practical problem of nothing being regulated for a long time.  (Think environment, labor, health, education, energy policy, etc.) After all, it’s been years since Congress could pass even broad department-level budgets, let alone dictating every rule and regulation as well as how each will be interpreted. That would leave litigation and federal courts to decide on the interpretation of every rule and regulation. In other words, who should write and interpret federal regulation details? Congress? The Courts? Or the Agencies that are experts in and are charged with carrying out those regulations? This could be a massive societal change.

So far this morning, FAST, FHN, KEY, NTRS, and TSM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (Some of the banks, in particular, had big beats on revenue, such as NTRS beating revenue by 51% and FHN beating that line by 23%.)  At the same time, MTB, TBCI, and TFC all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the premarket session. SPY gapped down through its T-line, but QQQ again is holding on to that level after an early test. Both SPY and QQQ are giving us white-bodied candles in the early session while DIA is indecisive after the gap down. So, the short-term trend is being challenged and is indeterminate except for DIA which has turned down in the short-term. (If you take a broader look at DIA, it has just chopped sideways for a month.) However, the Bulls remain slightly in control of the short-term trend in at least the QQQ and SPY (market leaders). In the longer term, we are near all-time highs (potential resistance) in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is now sitting well inside of its oversold range. So, both sides have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. However, the Bulls have more slack to work with. As I’ve been saying, keep watching those Tech Big Dogs. If they make a move as a group, it is almost impossible for the rest of the market to do anything but follow given their trading volumes.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears had control of the ball pretty much all day Tuesday.  The SPY gapped down 0.30%, DIA gapped down 0.23%, and QQQ gapped down 0.29%.  From there, all three major index ETFs saw 30 minutes of follow-through to the downside followed by an hour of rally that showed the divergence in the three. The rally in DIA only made it back up to the open level while SPY recrossed the opening gap and QQQ rallied to more of a gain than the open gapped lower.  All three then sold off slowly until 2:30 p.m. and then rallied very slowly for the last 90 minutes.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three, with SPY printing a Doji that retested and held above its T-line (8ema).  The QQQ printed a small-body, white-bodied Spinning Top that also retested and bounced up off its T-line.  Meanwhile, DIA was the weak sister again, giving us a black-bodied Spinning Top that retested its T-line from below and failed that test.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.18%) out in front leading the way lower.  At the same time, Communications Services (+0.15%) was the only sector able to hang onto green territory.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.37%, DIA lost 0.60%, and QQQ lost just 0.01%.  Meanwhile, VXX gained 3.50% to close at 15.36 and T2122 dropped sharply, down well into the oversold territory at 10.39. 10-year bond yields climbed to 4.054% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.06% to close at $71.91 per barrel. So, after the opening gap lower (mostly on the weekend tit-for-tat strikes in and off of Yemen), it was basically an indecisive day.  This happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in the DIA. 

The only economic news on Tuesday was the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index, which came in far below expectations at -43.70 (compared to a forecast of -5.00 and even down significantly from December’s -14.50 reading).  This low value led to speculation that the Fed may indeed cut rates in March as expected.  (More than 97% of Fed Funds Futures bets expect no change at the end of January.  However, 65.9% of futures bets are expecting a quarter point rate cut in March with just 34.1% thinking there will be no change in March.)

In FOMC news, Fed Governor Waller said Tuesday that the US “is now within striking distance” of its 2% inflation target.  However, he also said the FOMC should not rush to cut its benchmark rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained.  (Markets did not like the idea of not rushing cuts.)  Waller said “The key thing is the economy is doing well. It is giving us the flexibility to move carefully and methodically. We can see how the data comes in, see if progress is being sustained.”  He continued, “The worst thing we’d have is it all reverses after we’ve already started to cut. We really want to see evidence that this progress in the real data and the inflation data continues. I believe it will.”  Waller also said, “Recent data is almost as good as it gets for the central bank with economic growth gradually slowing, the unemployment rate remaining low, and important measures of inflation now hitting the 2% target for the past six months.”

After the close, IBKR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Interestingly, it was a massive beat on revenue (+38.2%) but still missed on earnings by 1.3%.

In stock news, STLA announced Tuesday that it has signed a deal to sell 250k vehicles over three years to German-based rental firm SIXT.  (Deliveries will start this quarter and will cover both Europe and North America.)  In other auto news, TSLA CEO Musk tweeted that he would be uncomfortable growing the company into a leader in AI and robotics without having 25% of the voting stock.  (Musk only owns 13% of that stock now, after his sales to support his purchase of Twitter. So, Musk is demanding twice as much voting power as his ownership provides.)  At the same time, SNPS announced it had agreed to buy ANSS for $35 billion.  Later, QSR (Burger King) bought out its largest franchisee, TAST, for about $1 billion ($9.55 per share).  QSR will get 1,000 Burger King and 60 Popeye’s Chicken restaurants in the deal.  QSR also said it will invest $500 million to remodel 600 of the restaurants at twice the pace TAST was doing so.  At the same time, AAPL announced it is offering discounts of up to $70 on iPhones sold in China and cut the price on other products by as much as $110.  This is part of a push by AAPL to compete with Chinese phone giant Hauwei. Later, XOM said it would buy an additional 1.2 million tons of LNG per year from Mexico Pacific over a 20-year contract.  Elsewhere, TSN announced more closures and temporary scaled-back meatpacking operations due to winter weather.  At the same time, SHEL announced it is exiting Nigerian on-shore oil production after more than a century.  The company said it will sell its operations to a consortium of five mostly local companies for $2.4 billion.  Later, BA named an “independent quality advisor” to lead a review of its quality management practices.  At the same time, LEG issued a business update, saying it plans to consolidate 15-20 of its 50 production and distribution facilities.  The move will gradually cut between 900 and 1,100 jobs although this will not be accomplished until late 2025.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, France’s highest court rejected a request from HCMLF that it rule the company cannot be charged with complicity in “crimes against humanity” charges levied against the Syrian government.  (HCMLF kept its factory running throughout the Syrian civil war and lower courts ruled the company was complicit in the regime’s actions due to company support of the regime.)  Later, KR and ACI both announced they are pushing the closure of the $24.6 billion acquisition until “first half 2024” from “early 2024” after discussions with the FTC who (along with lawmakers) has questioned and pushed back on the deal.  At the same time, JPM agreed to pay an $18 million civil penalty to settle charges it violated laws on whistleblower protection.  Later, the US Supreme Court on Tuesday declined to hear the appeal by AAPL on the portion of the lower court’s decision that the company had lost in the lawsuit brought by Epic Games related to App Store billing requirements and rules.   Elsewhere, the FAA-ordered grounding of 171 BA 737 MAX 9 jets entered its 11th day while inspections over loose bolts and other structural defects continue.  At the same time, a US District Judge ruled in favor of the FTC and blocked the acquisition of SAVE by JBLU.  Meanwhile, QMCO said Tuesday that it had offered voluntary retirement to more than 1,500 employees at its Panama mine.  (This is continued fallout from the Panamanian government’s December decision to shut the company’s Cobre Panama mine in the public interest.)  Meanwhile, the US banking industry and its main lobbying groups all peppered the Fed with criticism Tuesday all aimed at forcing the Fed to completely redo its rules which increase in bank capitalization requirements. 

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  China led a huge push down in the region with Hong Kong (-3.71%), Shenzhen (-2.58%), and South Korea (-2.47%) leading the charge lower. In Europe, we see a similar (if not yet as bad) picture taking shape at midday.  The CAC (-1.15%), DAX (-1.01%), and FTSE (-1.81%) are leading the move lower with only Greece (+0.20%) and Russia (+0.14%) in the green in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward another gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.33% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.44% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.068% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.71% to $71.16 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Dec. Core Retail Sales, Dec. Retail Sales, Dec. Imports, and Dec. Exports (all at 8:30 a.m.), Dec. Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), Nov. Business Inventories and Nov. Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), Fed Beige Book (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also have two fed speakers, Bowman at 9 a.m. and Williams (3 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include SCHW, CFG, PLD, and USB.  Then, after the close, AA, DFS, FUL, KMI, SNV, and WTFC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Dec. Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Housing Starts, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported as well as Fed member Bostic speaks.  Finally, on Friday, we get Dec. Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations as well as Fed member Daly speaking.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from FAST, FHN, KEY, MTB, NTRS, TSM, TFC, JBHT, and PPG.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, CMA, FITB, HBAN, RF, SLB, STT, and TRV report.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday night (US time) the US Navy carried out more strikes on Yemeni Houthi anti-ship missiles.  This came after a Houthi missile hit a Greek-owned vessel in the Red Sea. Elsewhere, a meteorological study out of Canada said that Western Canada’s abnormally dry winter (so far) likely points to the worsening of a severe drought in the region.  (In turn, these will impact US grain, oil, gas, and timber prices.)  That region produces most of the country’s grain, oil, gas, and forest products.  It was also the site of many wide-ranging fires in 2023 that were bad enough to severely impact US city air quality last summer.  Meanwhile, the EIA said that Wind and Solar are going to lead the growth in US power generation over the next two years.  The agency said it expects Solar generation to increase 75% over that period from its 2023 level of 163 billion kWh.  Over the same time, the EIA expects wind farm production to grow a much more modest 11% from its current 429 billion kWh.  (EIA expects coal generation to fall 18% and natural gas production to remain level over the same two years.)

In mortgage news, loan demand surged last week by 10.4% compared to the prior week.  This came as the national average loan rate fell again from 6.81% to 6.75% for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan.  However, loan closing points did increase from 0.61 to 0.62 on the week.  New home purchase loan applications were up 9% on the week while refinance loan applications jumped 11%. 

So far this morning, USB reported a significant beat on the revenue line (29.5% growth) but only came in in line on earnings.  At the same time, CFG also beat handily on revenue (+15.2% over forecast) but missed significantly (-43.3% versus estimates).  PLD and SCHW both report at 8 a.m.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the premarket session. SPY gapped down through its T-line, but QQQ again is holding on to that level after an early test. Both SPY and QQQ are giving us white-bodied candles in the early session while DIA is indecisive after the gap down. So, the short-term trend is being challenged and is indeterminate except for DIA which has turned down in the short-term. (If you take a broader look at DIA, it has just chopped sideways for a month.) However, the Bulls remain slightly in control of the short-term trend in at least the QQQ and SPY (market leaders). In the longer term, we are near all-time highs (potential resistance) in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is now sitting well inside of its oversold range. So, both sides have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. However, the Bulls have more slack to work with. As I’ve been saying, keep watching those Tech Big Dogs. If they make a move as a group, it is almost impossible for the rest of the market to do anything but follow given their trading volumes.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was another flat and indecisive day in the market.  Spy gapped up 0.32%, DIA opened 0.07% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.26%.  At that point, DIA diverged from the other two major index ETFs.  DIA sold off the first 90 minutes and then followed the SPY and QQQ, which traded sideways in a tight range.  Both QQQ and SPY spent the day bouncing around in the lower end of the opening gap.  This action gave us black-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three index ETFs with the DIA having the largest body.  DIA retested its T-line (8ema) closing just pennies below it.  This all happened on below-average volume in the QQQ and SPY.  For its part, DIA had just shy of average volume.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.09%) out in front leading the way higher on the Yemeni strife.  At the same time, Consumer Cyclical (-0.93%) was by far the biggest loser on the board.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.07%, DIA lost 0.33%, and QQQ gained 0.05%.  Meanwhile, VXX gained 1.64% to close at 14.84 and T2122 rose but remained firmly in the center of its mid-range at 52.59.  10-year bond yields fell 3.939% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.03% to close at $72.76 per barrel.   

The economic news on Friday, December Core PPI came in dead flat and lower than was expected at 0.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% and in line with November’s 0.0% value).  At the same time, December PPI also came in lower than anticipated at -0.1% (versus a forecast of +0.1% and in line with the November -0.1% reading).  

In stock news, before the open Friday, C announced it was cutting 20k jobs over the next two years as part of its massive restructuring effort.  At the same time, CNC completed the sale of its Circle Health Group to private firm Pure Health.  Later, STLA announced Friday that due to the recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea, the company will temporarily prioritize airfreight to address supply disruptions (at a much higher cost, obviously).  At the same time, DAL announced it is shifting toward EADSY (Airbus) A350-1000 aircraft instead of BA jets (which it has used for decades).  This included the order for 40 of the A350-1000 planes with the first half to be delivered in 2026.  Later, UNP said it expects continued delays in shipments in midwestern states due to heavy snow, severe thunderstorms, and road closures which impact its ability to move crews to trains.  Elsewhere, TSCO and TGT were among the retailers saying Friday that they expect product outages of up to 20 days due to the Red Sea attacks, which are causing ships to be rerouted around the horn of Africa.  At the same time, WFC, C, and JPM all said they expect industry Net Interest Income (spread between borrowing and lending costs) peaked in Q4 2023.  (This is in line with their expectation that rates will fall in 2024.)  Later, SUM finalized its $3.2 billion merger with Argos North America.  Meanwhile, MSFT edged out AAPL as the company with the largest market cap in the world.  (MSFT was at $2.887 trillion as AAPL was “only” $2.875 trillion.)  This is the first time since 2021 that AAPL was not the largest capitalized company in the world.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a bipartisan group of 15 US Senators urged the SEC to closely scrutinize the bid of JBSAY to list on the NYSE.  The group echoed the concerns of British Parliamentarians from earlier in the week.  However, the group’s public letter to the SEC failed to directly call on the SEC to deny the listing, but the letter clearly implied that was their wish.  At the same time, the FDA classified the recall of RMD respiratory masks as extremely serious since the use of those products could lead to major injuries or death.  (It seems the devices cause magnetic interference with other medical devices and implants.)  Later, a US Appeals Court upheld two earlier decisions by a patent tribunal reaffirming the ruling that AAPL stole the intellectual property of MASI related to medial sensor technologies that AAPL then put into their watches.  Elsewhere, the FAA said Friday that the agency is planning to perform “closer monitoring” of BA 737 MAX 9 jets when they do reenter service.  The agency chief told Reuters it was “pretty clear” the mid-air blowout was a manufacturing problem and not a design defect.  As such, BA deserves more scrutiny, including an increase in production line and supplier inspections, which have not been standard in the past.  At the same time, MS agreed to pay $249.5 million to the US Dept. of Justice and SEC to end criminal and civil investigations into the company’s handling of large block trades for its customers.  Later, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear a challenge by SBUX to lower court decisions that required the company to rehire seven employees it was found to have fired due to their support of unionization.  In the afternoon, the FDA announced a major recall by PEP of many Quaker Oats products over the risk of salmonella contamination.  At the same time, WH told Reuters it had received a second request for information from the FTC related to a $7.8 billion hostile takeover bid from CHH.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side. Hong Kong (-2.16%) was way out in front leading Taiwan (-1.14%), and South Korea (-1.12%) as well as the rest of the region lower.  Only Shenzhen (+0.31%) and Shanghai (+0.27%) were in the green in that region.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday. Only Oslo (+0.22%) is in the green while the CAC (-0.34%), DAX (-0.39%), and FTSE (-0.33%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a lower open to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.34% open, the SPY is implying a -0.40% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.46% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have moved back above four percent to 4.014% and Oil (WTI) is up a half of a percent to $73.08 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 a.m.) and Fed Governor Waller speaks (11 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to GS, MS, and PNC.  Then, after the close, IBKR reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get Dec. Core Retail Sales, Dec. Retail Sales, Dec Imports, Dec. Exports, Dec. Industrial Production, Nov. Business Inventories, Nov. Retail Inventories, Fed Beige Book, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, and Fed member Williams speaks.  Then Thursday, Dec. Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Housing Starts, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported as well as Fed member Bostic speaks.  Finally, on Friday, we get Dec. Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations as well as Fed member Daly speaking.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, SCHW, CFG, PLD, USB, AA, DFS, FUL, KMI, SNV, and WTFC reports.  Then Thursday, we hear from FAST, FHN, KEY, MTB, NTRS, TSM, TFC, JBHT, and PPG.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, CMA, FITB, HBAN, RF, SLB, STT, and TRV report.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the Biden Administration put out another bid for 3 million additional barrels of oil to continue refilling the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  Elsewhere, if you’ve ever doubted whether the saying “it’s not the news, it’s how the market reacts to the news” than Friday was a day for you.  JPM reported a record $49.6 billion in profit for 2023 on Friday, a 32% increase over 2022.  This caused more than a 2% gap higher and JPM stock was up more than 3.5% in the first five minutes of the day.  This was a bear trap as hard selling started at 9:35 a.m. and lasted all the way into the close.  On the day, JPM sold off more than 4.12% from the high and ended the day down 0.73% compared to Thursday’s close.  For its part, WFC profits rose 9% for Q4, but the market did not like that its costs rose although less than the revenue.  WFC was punished with a 2.38% gap lower and ended the day down 3.34%.  Part of this big bank angst was due to the forecast by big banks that they truly believe rate cuts are real and will start “soon” cutting into their interest income.

In geopolitical weekend news, Taiwan thumbed its nose at Beijing by electing the “status quo” candidate, which was not Xi’s preferred contender because he is not pro-reunification, William Lai.  Almost immediately, President Biden moved to calm the situation by announcing that the US does not support Taiwanese independence and that US policy is still “one China, two systems.” However, the Chinese still did not like the fact that a lesser official, US Sec. of State Blinken, congratulated Lai on his election victory.  Meanwhile, in the Red Sea, Saturday the Houthi rebels fired on a US destroyer with rockets and drones. All drones were shot down and no damage was reported. Then on Sunday, the Pentagon reported two Navy Seals had been lost overboard during a ship boarding operation in rough seas off the coast of Yemen.  (That seems quite odd given the timing and other happenings in that area, but it was the story disseminated.) At the same time, the US led a second wave of air attacks on the Houthi rebels.  In retaliation, on Monday the Houthi hit a US-owned container ship (which was stupid enough to ignore the events in that shipping lane during the last month as well as the US Navy’s explicit warning to all ships to avoid the area for at least three days).  No major damage was reported, but a fire was caused in one hold.

So far this morning, GS and PNC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (PNC destroyed market expectations by reporting $3.16/share in earnings against the consensus forecast of $2.14/share on only modestly higher than expected revenue.)  At the same time, MS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  GS cited better-than-expected “asset management profits” during its report.

With that background, markets look to be recovering a bit from a gap lower to start the premarket. All three major index ETFs are showing significant white-bodied candles at this point in the early session. SPY and QQQ both crossed back above their T-line (8ema) and DIA is close to retesting the level that all three gapped below early this morning. So, the Bulls remain in control of the short-term trend in at least the QQQ and SPY (market leaders) although the news out of Yemen had traders very nervous at the beginning of the premarket. In the longer term, we are near all-time highs (potential resistance) in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now sitting in the middle of its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. If they make a move as a group, it is almost impossible for the rest of the market to do anything but follow given their trading volumes.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower Tuesday as the Bears tried hard to deny the Bulls any follow-through on the Monday candles.  SPY opened 0.56 lower, DIA opened 0.54% lower, and QQQ opened down 0.74%. However, the Bulls stepped in right at the open to lead a rally (at least in the QQQ and SPY) that lasted until shortly after 1 p.m.  QQQ had recrossed the opening gap by 11:55 a.m. and continued higher while SPY recrossed its by 1 p.m. After that, both traded sideways with a slight bearish trend. Meanwhile, DIA just treaded sideways after the open, with a very slight bullish trend.  The action gave us white-bodied candles in the QQQ and SPY (both retesting and staying above their T-line) as well as a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA (which gapped below and did not cross back above its T-line). 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Energy (-1.31%) out in front leading the way lower while Consumer Defensive was dead flat and Technology (+0.09%) was the lone green spot on the board.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.17%, DIA lost 0.44%, and QQQ gained 0.20%.  Meanwhile, VXX fell 2.30% to close at 14.84 and T2122 dropped back into the center of its mid-range at 45.00.  10-year bond yields were basically flat at 4.021% and Oil (WTI) climbed 2.05% to close at $72.22 per barrel.  On the day, we saw the significant gap lower but from that point forward the Bulls were in control all day.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The economic news on Tuesday included November Imports were down, at $316.90 billion (compared to the October value of $323.10 billion, meaning there was a $6.20 billion reduction).  At the same time, the Nov. Exports were down a bit less at $253.70 billion (versus the October $258.60 billion, a $4.90 billion reduction).  This resulted in a Nov. Trade Balance that was a bit better than anticipated at $63.20 billion (compared to a forecast $65.00 billion deficit and an October deficit of $64.50 billion).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a much larger drawdown than was expected at -5.215 million barrels (versus a forecasted 1.200-million-barrel draw but not as much as the prior week’s 7.418-million-barrel drawdown).   

In Fed news, Vice-Chair Barr announced the end of the bank’s Term Funding Program (emergency loans initiated during the regional bank crisis).  Barr said financial stress s has been successfully eased and there is no immediate crisis in the banks sector.  He acknowledged concerns about banks coming to rely on the program as rates are cut later this year.  The program ends on March 11, a year after it was launched.  In a related story, GS analysts said Tuesday that they expect major bank profits to decrease 10% for Q4 when they begin reporting Friday.  GS attributed the decline in the forecast to a 15% fall in trading profits, higher payouts to depositors, and an unspecified increase in reserves for loan defaults.

After the close, PSMT beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.   At the same time, WDFC reported a massive miss on revenue and, at the same time, a huge beat on earnings ($140 million revenue versus $576 million forecast and $1.28/share earnings versus $1.00/share consensus forecast).

In stock news, SSREY (Swiss Re, a major insurer of insurers) announced Tuesday that US insurers accounted for the bulk of 2023’s $95 billion in insured losses.  (The 30-year average of insured losses is $57 billion while the 10-year average is up to $90 billion due to climate change impacts).  At the same time, GE announced they have signed a record-setting deal to supply 674 large wind turbines to Canadian wind project developer Pattern Energy.  (Financial details of the “record-setting” deal were not disclosed.)  Later, Reuters reported that HPE is near to a $13 billion deal to buy JNPR with the deal to be announced as early as the next few days.  (JNPR ended the day 21.81% higher.)  At the same time, amidst all its problems related to the 737 MAX 9, BA announced its 2023 deliveries reached 528 aircraft, the most since 2018 (before its 737-MAX debacle of multiple crashes).  Elsewhere, UNP said Tuesday it is expecting a 24–48-hour delay in shipments as blizzards in the Midwest impact railroad operations.  In a related story, TSN announced it had closed meat processing plants in KS due to the storm.  Later, STLA, BB, and AMZN unveiled a collaboration product that allows “infotainment” to be streamed to vehicles 100 times faster than current methods.  At the same time, BLK announced the cut of roughly 600 jobs (3% of its workforce) but said the company expects a higher headcount by the end of 2024.  After the close, BA CEO Calhoun acknowledged the company’s “mistake” when speaking about the explosive decompression of an ALK flight on Sunday and subsequent loose bolts found on multiple airlines’ 737 MAX 9 jets.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, Reuters reported Tuesday that TSLA has lowered its guidance range, citing new tighter US vehicle-testing regulations.  As a result, TSLA cut the range estimates on all of its models.  (In the past, TSLA rigged the in-car algorithm to misreport miles left on a battery charge to assume absolute optimal conditions.  This stood in stark contrast to the stricter mileage standards traditional internal combustion vehicles have to follow.  In addition, in 2023 it was discovered that TSLA had created an internal team to suppress thousands and thousands of customer driving-range complaints.)  At the same time, 12 members of the UK parliament sent a public letter to the Chairman of the SEC, arguing that the US market regulator should block to listing of JBSAY (now pink sheet) on the NYSE.  Their reason is that the company is allegedly slowing efforts to curb global warming via deforestation.  Later, GOOGL presented its case in a Boston federal court to argue against computer scientists’ claims that the company should be forced to pay $1.67 billion for infringing patents related to the processors GOOGL uses to power AI applications.  At the same time, META announced it will hide more content from teens as regulators in the EU and US have pressed the company to protect children from harmful content.  (META says teens will, now, by default be placed under the most restrictive of their content-control settings.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that EU antitrust regulators are examining MSFT’s investment into OpenAI related to the EU merger rules.  (Interested parties have until March 11 to provide input and feedback related to the matter and its impact on competition before the investigation starts in earnest.)   Interestingly, China announced late Tuesday that one of its state-backed institutions has devised a way to identify users who send messages via AAPL’s AirDrop Bluetooth feature.  (It was not known what benefits China would get by announcing this crack, but the release could hurt AAPL since this feature is used globally by protesters, activists, and general iPhone users.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only two of 12 exchanges in the green.  However, by far the biggest mover in the region was Japan (+2.01%).  Malaysia (-0.80%), South Korea (-0.75%), and Australia (-0.69%) paced the losses in the region.  Meanwhile, in Europe, a similar picture is taking shape at midday with only two of 15 bourses in the green.  However, again, by far the biggest mover is Portugal (+1.80%).  The CAC (-0.15%), DAX (-0.09%), and FTSE (-0.31%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 3.998% and Oil (WTI) is up one-third of a percent to $72.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and Fed member Williams speaks at 3:15 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, KBH reports.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Core CPI, Dec. CPI, Dec. Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  On Friday, Dec. Core PPI, Dec. PPI, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, the main thrust does not start again until the end of the week.  On Thursday, INFY reports.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday the CME announced it is rolling out new longer-horizon e-mini futures for both the S&P-500 and Nasdaq-100.  The new products will begin trading on January 29 and are intended to allow traders to trade around longer-term economic cycles.  They will feature quarter-end and year-end expirations.  Elsewhere, Moody’s reported that US office space vacancies rose to a record level in Q4 as 25 million square feet of new space came online, more people continue to work from home since the pandemic, and companies downsize operations to reduce costs.  The survey found that 19.6% of office space was empty in Q4.  (The prior record was 19.3% set twice in the past.)  Meanwhile, the SEC confirmed that its official X (formerly Twitter) account had been “compromised” (not due to a hack of X systems) and then a bogus tweet announcing the approval of Bitcoin ETFs had been sent.  While the real approval is widely expected sometime this week, the news caused a brief spike and the rebuttal caused a brief plunge in Bitcoin prices.  (The SEC specifically saying it was not due to a hack, tends to imply that this was just an early release of news that will come very soon.) Finally, in societal news, the UK publication The Guardian reported that newly released data shows that US police agencies killed a record 1,232 people in 2023.  (It is worth noting the statistics have only been gathered since 2013.)  Oddly, the increase in police violence comes even as US violent crime and especially murder rates declined a whopping 13% in 2023.  The increase in police killings was driven by disproportionate increases in rural geographic areas.

In government shutdown news, Republican Senators told reporters Tuesday that a “short-term continuing resolution” will be needed to avoid a government shutdown on January 19.  Senator Thune had told reporters that a CR through sometime in March would be needed for negotiators to finish and the Senate to act on the results.  House Speaker Johnson said he (and his House GOP caucus) would have a hard time swallowing that.  However, later, Senate Majority Leader McConnell told reporters “It was obvious.”  He went on to say, “The simplest things take a week in the Senate. So, I think the House doesn’t understand how long it takes to get something through the Senate.”  McConnell continued, “We’re going to have to pass a CR,” McConnell said. “We need to prevent a government shutdown.” 

In mortgage news, loan demand spiked 10% last week as rates for 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loans (20% down) dropped from 6.81% to 6.76%.  (Closing points remained unchanged at 0.61%.)  Applications for new home purchase loans rose 6% but were still 16% lower than a year prior. At the same time, applications for refinance loans jumped 19% from the prior week and were 30% higher than a year prior. 

With that background, it looks like markets are indecisive this morning with all three major index ETFs printing candles in the premarket that are mostly wick. With that said, the QQQ did gap a bit higher and the body of those indecisive candles are white. DIA is also retestings its T-line (8ema) from below in the early session. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend (again, mostly on the back of Monday’s strong white candles). However, it is not a done deal with the move not decidedly bullish yet. The longer-term bullish daily trend lines remain broken but there is no Bearish trend established yet. So, technically we are not yet in a downtrend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now sitting in the middle of its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. After a week of seeming rotation out of those names, we saw money flood back into them Monday as a slew of new product announcements came out of the CES trade show in Las Vegas. For that matter, watch CES as Tuesday saw a slew of non-Big Dog product announcements such as a new EV line of cars from HMC. Either way those seven Big Dog to ten stocks decided to go, it will be hard for the market to do anything but follow.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, the Bulls took a little revenge for last week.  The SPY opened a bit higher at +0.07%, DIA gapped down 0.33% (as BA weighed heavily on the Dow), and gapped up 0.29%.  However, after the opening bell, QQQ rallied sharply until 10:50 a.m. and then began a slower, 45-degree rally that lasted the rest of the day.  At the same time, the SPY steadily rallied along a 45-degree angle all day long.  DIA was the laggard as it had to overcome the terrible BA move and it took the Dow 30 minutes to reverse the selling before starting a wavier 30-degree rally that finally filled the gap by 2 p.m. and continued slowly North.  All three major index ETFs closed very near their highs of the day.  This action gave us large, white, near-Marubozu candles in the SPY and QQQ (some might call it a Trader’s Best Friend…gap up from a Doji to a Marubozu) and a large white candle with a lower wick in the DIA.  All three also crossed back above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green again with Technology (+2.57%) far out in front leading the way higher while Energy (-1.13%) was the lone laggard in the red.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 0.59%, and QQQ gained 2.07%.  (The QQQ’s huge day came on the back of many product introductions by several QQQ members at the annual CES conventions.  Among these were MRVL (+6.99%), NVDA (+6.43%), and AMD (+5.48%).)  Meanwhile, VXX fell 2.32% to close at 15.19 and T2122 climbed the top of the mid-range (to just outside of the overbought territory) at 78.45.  10-year bond yields backed off but remain above four percent to 4.013% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.78% to close at $71.02 per barrel.  On the day, we saw the Bulls in control all day on what was slightly above-average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

The economic news on Monday was limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 3.00%.  This continued a steady decline since July 2022.  The December value was 3.40%.  So, the decline was significant.  Then later, Consumer Credit (requiring installments) for November was reported much higher than predicted at $23.75 billion (versus a forecast of $9.00 billion and October’s perhaps artificially low $5.78 billion).  On the Fed side, Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke Monday afternoon.  Bostic said that as long as inflation remains above 2%, his bias is for monetary policy to remain tight.  However, he also said overall risks in the economy have become balanced between the risk of inflation and the risk of slower economic growth.   Bostic went on to say he does anticipate rate cuts later this year, but said “I don’t think that’s where we are today.”  (Seeming to push back against the idea of a March rate cut.)  In the end, he said he was focused on his discussions with business leaders, and as of now, he is not hearing them say they are planning layoffs (which he implied would be the tipping point where risk was more on the economic slowdown side than the inflation side).  Later, Fed Governor Bowman (traditionally very hawkish) retreated from her recent stances, telling a Bankers Assn. event that the current Fed rate policy appears to be “sufficiently restrictive.”  Bowman said, “My view has evolved to consider the possibility that the rate of inflation could decline further with the policy rate held at the current level for some time.”  She continued “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2 percent goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive.”

After the close, JEF missed on revenue while beating on earnings. JEF cited a Q4 lull in merger and acquisition deals as the reason for its revenue miss.

In stock news, BAC announced Monday that it will be taking a $1.6 billion charge in Q4 related to the bank no longer being able to use Bloomberg’s interest rate benchmark.  (Apparently, the Bloomberg LIBOR index which is being discontinued was the basis for large commercial loan interest rate calculations.  Although it is unclear why this would cost the bank so much money if the loans had a different interest rate basis.)  Later, MRK announced it would buy cancer drug developer HARP for $680 million ($23/share or 118% premium on Friday’s close).  At the same time, BCS announced it would cut 5,000 jobs globally as the bank undergoes an efficiency drive.  Later, JNJ announced it would acquire AMAM for $2 billion ($28/share or a 106% premium on Friday’s close).  Elsewhere, NVDA, AMD, and many other tech names announced a slew of new products at the CES trade show. Many of them squeezed “AI” into the announcements one way or another, but NVDA and AMD had legitimate AI product launches. (NVDA touting a “not quite high-end” AI chip to skirt US bans on sales to China and AMD touting AI capabilities in new consumer CPUs as well as even mid-tier graphics cards.) For its part, AAPL announced its new VR headset will go on sale starting Feb. 2.  (It is not expected to have much in the way of sales with a staggering $3,499 price tag.)  Meanwhile, apparel retailers LULU, ANF, CROX, and AEO all raised their Q4 guidance on Monday signaling a stronger-than-expected holiday shopping season.  At the same time, ZEAL announced it had secured $214 million in funding through private placement on Monday.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) announced its cars will begin conversing with drivers via ChatGPT by the middle of 2024.  (VLKAF partnered with CRNC on this technology.)  At the same time, in a regulatory filing, videogame maker U said it was laying off 1,800 workers between now and the end of March.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, BRKB reached an agreement with the Haslam Family (former owners of Pilot Travel Centers aka Flying J Fuel stations) in the dispute over the accounting for the value of the remaining 20% owned by the Haslam family.  As a result, a Delaware federal court officially ended the lawsuit which had been scheduled to start Monday.  At the same time, Reuters reported that JNJ had reached a tentative agreement to pay $700 million to more than 40 states for having wrongfully marketed its talc-based baby products.  The agreement avoids stating any link between the talc and various cancers.  Later, the US Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal by XOM (and other petroleum interests) of an Appeals Court ruling that the company had engaged in decades of deceptive marketing and other tactics aimed at undermining climate science and government efforts to reduce the impacts of fossil fuels.  This throws the case back to the MN state court where XOM had used federal appeals to block the case.  Elsewhere, KKR said it intends to notify EU antitrust regulators of its plan to buyout Telecom Italia.  KKR said the notification will be made by the end of January.  Later, NFLX defeated a federal shareholder lawsuit that alleged the company had hidden the extent to which “account sharing” had been hurting company growth.  The ruling said there was no evidence the company was aware of the extent of the problem during the period the plaintiffs had claimed.  At the same time, the US Supreme Court also rejected an appeal by BTI and other tobacco makers seeking to block a CA state ban on flavored tobacco products.  The ruling said the state law did not conflict with federal regulations on the matter. Finally, early Tuesday the Dept. of Labor issued a final rule that will curb the use of contract workers (not treated as employees and responsible for their own benefits and taxes). The move will have major implications across much of the economy from trucking to automaking, to UBER and LYFT. This is the exact opposite of the previous administration rules that made it easy for companies to classify workers as contractors and save up to 30% per worker according to multiple studies.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Japan (+1.16%) and Australia (+0.93%) paced the gainers while South Korea (-0.26%) and Thailand (-0.25%) led the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.50%), DAX (-0.54%), and FTSE (-0.10%) lead the region on volume as always while Athens (+0.88%) leads three smaller exchanges in the green in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap-down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.46% open, the SPY is implying a -0.47% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.65% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.046% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.32% to $72.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Nov. Imports, Nov. Exports, and Nov. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to AYI, ACI, MSM, and SNX before the open.  Then, after the close, PSMT and WDFC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and Fed member Williams speaks.  Then Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Core CPI, Dec. CPI, Dec. Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  On Friday, Dec. Core PPI, Dec. PPI, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, the main thrust does not start again until the end of the week.  On Wednesday, we hear from KBH.  On Thursday, INFY reports.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday the issuers of Bitcoin spot-price ETFs started a price war on fees.  All the potential ETFs announced their fees at significantly below the average for ETF management fees.  (The average ETF charges 0.54% with the proposed Bitcoin ETFs coming in around 0.25%.)  One even lowered its fees from 0.80% to 0.25% during the day.  BLK remains on the high end, saying it will charge 0.30%.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that China has lifted the ban on net selling by mutual fund managers.  (The previous ruling stated the managers had to buy more shares than they sold each day, artificially propping up Chinese stocks.)  Meanwhile, the inspections of 737 MAX jets ordered by the FAA following Sunday’s ALK mid-air loss of part of the fuselage and explosive decompression has now found many jets with loose bolts on their bodies.  This is another setback for BA and SPR (maker of BA fuselages).  However, no determination has been made yet on whether this is a design or manufacturing issue. BA was down more than 8% Monday while SPR was down more than 11%. 

In Oil news, Saudi Arabia’s unexpected price slashing Monday (cutting their price to $2 below the regional benchmark price) led to a large ripple-effect drop in US Oil (WTI) prices.  As a result, oil majors like XOM, CVX, COP, OXY, MRO, etc. saw a greater than one percent drop in share prices.  Elsewhere, after the close, a US federal judge granted a large group of Venezuela’s creditors the right to participate in the proceeds of the coming auction of Citgo Petroleum (Venezuelan-owned).  OI and HII were among the companies approved to participate.  (COP reached a separate settlement with Venezuela that precludes their participation.)

So far this morning, AYI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, MSM missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (SNX and ACI report closer to the opening bell.) 

With that background, it looks like the Bears are trying to mount a comeback this morning before the Bulls can get a second day of momentum started. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket lower with SPY and DIA putting in indecisive, Spinning Top-type candles. However, the QQQ opened lower and continued, now showing a larger, black-bodied candle that is the only one of the three retesting its T-line (8ema) at this point. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend (mostly on the back of Monday’s strong white candles). However, it is not a done deal with the move not decidedly bullish yet. The longer-term bullish daily trend lines remain broken but there is no Bearish trend established yet. So, technically we are not yet in a downtrend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are far from their T-line (8ema). However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is just outside of its over-bought range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it, but it is the Bears that have the most slack to work with right now. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. After a week of seeming rotation out of those names, we saw money flood back into them Monday as a slew of new product announcements came out of the CES trade show in Las Vegas. Either way those seven to ten stocks go, it will be hard for the market to do anything but follow given their massive daily volumes.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The markets opened around the flat line on Friday. SPY opened up 0.05%, DIA started down 0.08%, and QQQ opened up 0.03%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs began a rally that lasted until 10:15 a.m. in the DIA, until 11 a.m. in the SPY and until 11:20 a.m. in the QQQ.  From there, all three sold off until 1:20 p.m.   Then we saw a new wave up for about an hour followed by down wave down wave that lasted another hour and finally a 30 minute up wave to end the day.  This action gave us White-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs.  The DIA again retested its T-line (8ema) but failed to close above it.  This happened on above-average volume in the DIA, less-than-average volume in the SPY, and average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+0.76%) out front leading the way higher while Consumer Defensive was the lone laggard in the red. At the same time, the SPY gained 0.14%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.12%.  The VXX fell 3.30% to close at 15.55 and T2122 rose but still remained in its midrange at 45.71.  10-year bond yields rose back above four percent to 4.05% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.4% to close at $73.92 per barrel.  On the day, we saw a volatile seesaw action that really ended up not far from where Thursday had closed.

This ended a string of nine up weeks in a row in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  On the week, SPY lost 1.55% (on average volume) and DIA lost 0.59% (on above-average volume).  However, QQQ lost 3.12% (on less-than-average volume) in what seems to have been at least a short-term rotation out of the big dog tech names that have pulled markets higher for more than a year.  TSLA fell 4.42%, AAPL dropped 5.90%, MSFT fell 2.20%, AMZN dropped 4.41%, AMD plummeted 5.99%, GOOGL fell 2.83%, and INTC plummeted 6.69% on the week.  However, of these, only AAPL recorded even average volume for the week.

The economic news on Friday included Dec. Avg. Hourly Earnings (year-on-year) which came in higher than expected at +4.1% (compared to a forecast of +3.9% and the Nov. reading of +4.0%).  On a month-on-month basis this was +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.3% but in line with November’s +0.4% value).  At the same time, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls were much stronger than expected at +216k (compared to a forecast of +170k and the Nov. reading of +173k).  On the private side, Dec. Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also much stronger than predicted at +164k (versus a forecast of +130k and the Nov. value of +136k).  These resulted in a Dec. Unemployment Rate that was lower than anticipated at 3.7% (compared to a forecast of 3.8% but in line with the November reading of 3.7%).  The Dec. Participation Rate was lower than predicted at 62.5% (versus a forecast and November reading of 62.8%).  So, the jobs market remains strong and workers saw real wage growth (compared to inflation) again last month.  Later, Nov. Factory Orders were also much stronger than expected at +2.6% (versus a +2.1% forecast and far better than the November 3.4% decline).  At the same time, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment was far below predicted at 43.3 (compared to a forecast of 51.0 and the November value of 50.7).  Meanwhile, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was also below expectations at 50.6 (versus the forecast of 52.6 and November’s 52.7 reading). Finally, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Prices were slightly above anticipated at 57.4 (compared to a forecast of 57.3 but down from November’s 58.3 value).

In stock news, STLA announced it would not advertise during next month’s Super Bowl, citing a challenging US auto market.  (GM made the same announcement in November.)  STLA has often been a significant advertiser at the event.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that SNPS is in advanced discussions to buy ANSS for around $35 billion in cash and stock.  Later, a large US medical study was reported in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Friday, which found NVO’s hit weight-loss drugs are not linked to an increase in suicidal thoughts.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that CHK and SWN are very close to a $17 billion merger agreement.  After hours, Reuters reported that the UAW has reached a tentative deal with ALSN.  Meanwhile, LLY announced a new website offering telehealth prescriptions and direct-to-home delivery of drugs on Friday.  This move alone may not dramatically impact the pharmacy industry but other drugmakers are expected to follow suit, which could put pressure on grocery and pharmacy chains currently filling prescriptions.  At the same time, the Insurance Journal reported Friday that AUR (driverless trucking technology) along with two other competing private firms intend to drop their human copilots from their semi-truck shipments, starting in Texas.  (AUR carries freight for WMT, KR, FDX, TSN, and other major shippers.)  On Saturday, ALK grounded its entire fleet of 65 BA 737 MAX 9 planes after a midnight flight Friday had an entire section of the fuselage blown out, causing explosive decompression of the cabin at 16,000 feet during a flight. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, in China, the State Administration for Market Regulation said Friday that TSLA would be recalling and fixing all 1.62 million vehicles (all sold in the country) equipped with the full self-driving feature.  (This is for the same reason as the US recall of all TSLA vehicles sold in the US in December.)  Later, MSFT and OpenAI were hit with a new lawsuit in federal court in NY Friday.  The suit alleges the companies misused the works of nonfiction authors to train their AI models.  At the same time, Reuters reported that India’s Antitrust Regulator launched an investigation into UPS, FDX, and Germany’s DHL for alleged collusion on discounts and tariffs.  Elsewhere, the FDA approved a new topical gel treatment for the highly contagious skin disease molluscum contagiosum produced by LGND.  (The disease impacts 6 million Americans per year with up to 73% of patients not receiving treatment.)  During the afternoon, the New York Times reported that the US Dept. of Justice is preparing an antitrust lawsuit against AAPL.  (The suit purportedly attacks the way AAPL watches only work with iPhones as well as exclusivity restrictions for the iMessage app as well as distribution of iPhone apps.)   At the same time, the NASDAQ announced it will delist LMDX on January 9th.  Later, two groups representing the auto dealers filed a lawsuit challenging the FTC consumer protection regulations finalized in December which ban “bait and switch” advertising tactics and prohibit dealerships from charging add-on costs without prior customer approval.  (The groups are supported by GM, TM, VLKAF, and other automakers.)  On Saturday, following the ALK incident with a BA 737 MAX 9 jet (see above), the FAA grounded some of the same model jets nationwide and ordered the immediate inspection of all BA 737 MAX 9 jets.  (There are 215 in service worldwide and the FAA order impacts 171 of them.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (-1.88%), Shenzhen (-1.85%), and Shanghai (-1.42%) paced the losses while Malaysia (+0.54%), Taiwan (+0.31%), and Japan (+0.27%) led the gainers.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only five of the 15 bourses in the green.  The CAC (-0.02%), DAX (+0.15%), and FTSE (-0.25%) are typical of the region.  Athens (+1.27%) and Portugal (-1.13%) are the outliers in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open with the Dow was an outlier.  The DIA implies a -0.42% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.061% and Oil (WTI) is down by 2.82% to $71.75 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the NY Fed 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.) and November Consumer Credit (3 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CMC and HELE before the open.  Then, after the close, JEF reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Nov. Imports, Nov. Exports, Nov. Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  On Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and Fed member Williams speaks.  Then Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Core CPI, Dec. CPI, Dec. Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  On Friday, Dec. Core PPI, Dec. PPI, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered. 

In terms of earnings reports, the main thrust does not start again until the end of the week. In the meantime, on Tuesday, AYI, ACI, MSM, SNX, PSMT, and WDFC report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from KBH.  On Thursday, INFY reports.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BAC, BK, BLK, C, DAL, JPM, UNH, WFC, and WIT.

In miscellaneous news, the NY Fed reported Friday that global supply chain issues eased in December.  The report said the Fed’s proprietary supply chain pressure index came in a -0.15 for December, down from a November reading of +0.13.  (The gauge peeked at +4.33 in December 2021.)  Elsewhere, several major investment firms including BLK and FNF updated their filings Friday and hope that their Bitcoin spot price ETFs will be approved this week.  This comes after the SEC asked the fund managers to submit written requests to accelerate approval.

In government funding news, the first of two cliffs (partial shutdowns) is scheduled for January 19.  On Sunday afternoon, Congressional leaders (Senate Majority Leader Schumer and House Speaker Johnson) announced a $1.59 trillion agreement on the top-line spending number. The only details agreed are that this will be divided between $886 billion for Defense and $704 billion in non-defense spending.  The deal does give a few more concessions to the MAGA types, allowing the GOP to renege on the June 2023 agreement. However, it doesn’t give specifics for any of the 12 appropriations bills and it is still unclear whether Speaker Johnson even has the power to get this agreement passed in his own House with the GOP majority now down to two votes (there is no tie-breaker in the House and so a tie vote fails).

So far this morning, CMC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, HELE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market is indecisive so far this morning. The DIA opened the premarket with a gap lower and this has put in a small black-bodied candle that is about half wick. The other two major index ETFs are also giving no clear direction with the QQQ gapping down, but putting in the strongest whit-body of the two candles while SPY prints a true Doji type inside of Friday’s candle so far in the early session. So, the Bears remain in control of the short-term trend and the longer-term bullish daily trend lines remain broken. However, no new lower-high has presented itself in any of the three major index ETFs. (We are technically not yet in a downtrend.) In terms of extension, the two large-cap index ETFs are not far from their T-line (8ema), but the QQQ is getting a bit stretched below its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. If we are seeing a rotation out of those names (which have dragged markets along for a year or more), it will be hard for markets to do anything except retreat.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw mixed to start the day.  The SPY gapped up 0.09%, DIA opened 0.16% higher, and QQQ gapped down 0.47%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs put in a morning rally that hit the highs of the day at about 11:30 a.m. This was followed by a modest selloff that lasted right into the close.  That action gave all three a large high wick on a small black body.  This could be seen as Gravestone Doji in the DIA and QQQ as well as an Inverted Hammer in the SPY.  The DIA also retested and failed its T-line (8ema).  This all happened on average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.35%) far out front leading the market lower while Healthcare (+0.67%) was by far the strongest sector.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.31%, DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ lost 0.51%.  The VXX was just on the red side of flat to close at 16.08 and T2122 fell a bit but remains in its midrange at 36.52. 10-year bond yields rose again to 3.999% and Oil (WTI) dropped 0.43% to close at $72.39 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw a divergence at the open with the high-tech QQQ gapping down while the two large-cap index ETFs opened on the green side of flat.  However, after that, the three acted in lock-step the rest of the day.  So, the bullish trendlines remain broken in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  However, the DIA is still basically consolidating while the SPY and especially QQQ continue their pullback.

The economic news on Thursday included the December ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which came in much stronger than expected at +164k (compared to a forecast of +115k and the revised November number of +101k).  This was the largest gain since August.  Later, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than predicted at 202k (versus a forecast of 216k and the previous week’s 220k).  At the same time, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down to 1,855k (compared to a forecast of 1,883k and the prior week’s 1,886k reading).  Later, Dec. S&P Global Services PMI came in better than anticipated at 51.4 (versus a 51.3 forecast and the prior 50.8 value).  At the same time, Dec. S&P Global Composite PMI was slightly lower than expected at 50.9 (compared to a 51.0 forecast but still stronger than the November 50.7 value).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger than predicted drawdown of 5.503 million barrels (versus a forecast calling for a 3.200-million-barrel drawdown but still not as much as last week’s 7.114-million-barrel drawdown).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet came in $32 billion lower than the prior week at $7.681 trillion (compared to the prior week’s $7.713 trillion.

In stock news, MBLY (who sells semiconductors into the auto industry) said Thursday that it has seen a pullback in orders from customers who are clearing excess inventory.  This sent both MBLY and competitors (NXPI, TXN, and WOLF) crashing lower as well as raising concerns about auto sales.  At the same time, F posted its best US sales numbers since 2020, saying that sales rose 7.1% to 1.99 million units in 2023.  Sales of F electric vehicles also rose 18% and now makeup 17% of total sales.  Later, retail analysts reported that AMZN shored up absolute market dominance for the Christmas season.  The data shows AMZN had 21% of global order volume for the Thanksgiving through Black Friday period, but jacked that up to an amazing 29% of global orders for all of Xmas season.  Consumer Intelligence Research noted that AMZN’s ability to hit two-day delivery deadlines seemed to be a critical factor in winning the huge order volumes.  Later, major European retailer Carrefour halted the sale of PEP products as the two companies fight over price hikes.  Elsewhere, DIS subsidiary ESPN signed a $920 million, eight-year deal for an extension of the network’s exclusive media rights to 40 NCAA championships (including the lucrative college basketball postseason).  This was triple the average annual amount ESPN had paid for the same rights in the past.  Later, the CEO of PSX told an energy industry conference that the company would sell $3 billion worth of “non-core” assets in 2024.  He gave no timelines but said discussions were ongoing.  After the close, XOM signaled it will take a big hit in Q4 as it books a $2.5 billion write-down related to wells abandoned in CA as well as a hit from lower energy prices.  (XOM reports February 2nd.) 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, on Thursday the US Department of Commerce announced it will award MCHP $162 million in grants to increase the US production of microcontroller chips which are key components in both consumer and defense industries.  Later, Consumer Reports issued a public letter to the FDA calling for strongly increased regulation and inspection.  The consumer rights group said that 84 of 85 supermarkets and fast food restaurants it has recently tested had foods that contain plastics and in fact, 79% of the food tested contained these phthalates or BPA chemicals.  (These chemicals are known to disrupt hormone production and regulation as well as pose a wide range of health risks.)  At the same time, the SEC ruled that AAPL and DIS cannot avoid shareholder votes about the company’s use of AI tech.  These board proposals were made by labor groups with the measures, if passed, asking for an accounting of the company’s use of AI technologies.  (Both companies had argued the votes could be left off board agendas because they related to “normal business operations.”  The SEC disagreed.)  The EEOC filed a motion asking a federal judge to reject TSLA’s motion to pause a lawsuit alleging widespread racial bias at the company’s Fremont CA plant.  (TSLA had filed a motion asking that the suit be indefinitely paused until after two other lawsuits are settled.)  After the close, the NRLB ruled that GOOGL must bargain with a union representing contract workers at its YouTube Music unit.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Shenzhen (-1.07%), Shanghai (-0.85%), and Hong Kong (-0.66%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.08%), DAX (-0.79%), and FTSE (-0.85%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., the Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the day (ahead of data).  The DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back above four percent at 4.036% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.82% to $72.81 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Dec. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Participation Rate, and Dec. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), Nov. Factory Orders, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to GBX and STZ before the open.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close. 

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported that short-sellers lost $195 billion in 2023 according to research by S3 Partners research.  The report specifically noted huge losses in TLSA, NVDA, AAPL, META, MSFT, and AMZN as the largest sources of pain for the shorts.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the Biden Administration has bought 13.82 million barrels of domestic oil to refill the strategic petroleum reserve.  They have also accelerated the return of 4 million barrels that had been loaned to oil companies.  (The SPR holds 354 million barrels and 180 million were released by the administration in 2022 at an average price of $95/barrel.  So far, the buybacks are below the target price of $79/barrel and the buyback fund has enough to purchase another 46.5 million barrels even at that price which is higher than market.)  The latest bid, put out Wed., was for another 3 million barrels for April delivery.  Meanwhile, ADBE Analytics (retail analysts) issued a report Thursday saying that US shopper spending rose 4.9% for the holiday season.  The report cited an increase in “Buy Now Pay Later” options and deep discounts on electronics and apparel as key factors in the increase.

So far this morning, STZ reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  GBX had be scheduled to report at 6 a.m. but has not done so yet.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are anticipating disappointing December Jobs Numbers this morning (or perhaps anticipating strong jobs numbers which they think will cause the Fed to hold off on the start of rate cuts). Either way, the major index premarkets all opened with a modest gap lower. Since then, all three major index ETFs have given us smaller but black-bodied candles in the early session. So, the Bears remain in control of the short-term trend and the longer-term daily uptrend lines remain broken. However, no new lower-high has presented itself in any of the three major index ETFs. (We are technically not yet in a downtrend.) In terms of extension, the two large-cap index ETFs are not too far from their T-line (8ema), but the QQQ is getting stretched below its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears do both have room to run if they can gather the momentum to do it. Continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. If we are seeing a rotation out of those names (which have dragged markets along for a year or more), it will be hard for markets to do anything except retreat. Finally, remember this is Friday…payday. So, prepare your account for the weekend news cycles and don’t forget to pay yourself.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made most of their movement at the open Wednesday.  SPY gapped down 0.44%, DIA gapped down 0.41%, and QQQ gapped down 0.65%.  After that, all three major index ETFs traded in a tight range around the open the rest of the day.  The biggest move was a selloff the last hour that took all three out near their lows.  This action gave us what I would call large-body, black-body, Spinning Top candles with small upper and lower wicks.  DIA also crossed below its T-line (8ema) following the SPY and QQQ in that pullback.  This happened on greater-than-average volume in the DIA and a bit less-than-average in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-1.85%) and Industrials (-1.80%) out front leading the way lower while Energy (+1.35%) was by far the strongest sector.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.82%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ lost 1.06%.  The VXX rose 3.74% to close at 16.10 and T2122 dropped but still remained in its midrange at 38.24.  10-year bond yields rose again to 3.922% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.38% to close at $72.79 per barrel.  So, on the day, most of the move was made at the open with the Bears gapping all the major indices lower.  However, from there it was a sideways wobble in a tight range with a selloff the last hour taking us out near the lows.  The Bullish trendlines have now been breached but SPY sits at a potential support level and QQQ has the furthest to fall before hitting potential support at about 1.35%.

The economic news on Wednesday included December ISM Mfg. Employment, which came in significantly better than expected at 48.1 (compared to a forecast of 46.5 and the November reading of 45.8).  At the same time, December ISM Mfg. PMI also came in better than anticipated at 47.4 (versus a 47.1 forecast and November’s 46.7 value).  Meanwhile, December ISM Manufacturing Prices came in much lower than predicted at 45.2 (compared to a forecast of 47.5 and far better than November’s 49.9 value).  On the job opening front, November JOLTS Job Openings were down at 8.790 million (versus a forecast of 8.850 million and the October reading of 8.852 million).  That was the lowest number of job openings since early 2021, not at a level of 1.4 openings per unemployed person.  (The high was a 2:1 ratio in 2022.)  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown of 7.418 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 2.967 million barrels and the prior week’s inventory build of 1.837 million barrels).

However, probably the most notable economic news was the release of the FOMC December Meeting Minutes.  Those minutes showed that Fed members cited lower inflation risks and foresaw coming rate cuts.  However, the start of and the path those cuts will take was very mixed and uncertain among members.  Among the notable sections were “Participants pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023, noting the recent shift down in six-month inflation readings in particular.”  For the first time since mid-2022, the minutes DID NOT describe inflation as “highly unacceptable” and, in fact, said the risk of renewed inflation was “diminished.”  The minutes said “a few” participants saw the potential need for the Fed to switch in its tradeoff between the goal of controlling inflation and maintaining high rates of employment.  Finally, the minutes noted “an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” about the economic outlook saying that additional rate hikes are possible as are the beginning of rate cuts.  This included some meeting participants floating the idea of slowing Fed balance sheet reductions, as the minutes said “several participants remarked that the Committee’s balance sheet plans indicated that it would slow and then stop the decline in the size of the balance sheet.”

In stock news, XRX announced it will cut 15% of its workforce as part of its attempt to move to a new business model and organizational structure.  At the same time, TM announced its vehicle sales rose 6.6% during 2023 with strong demand for affordable sedans and SUVs.  Drilling down, TM said electric vehicle sales rose 31% from the prior year, now making up 29.2% of all sales.  Later, Bloomberg reported rumors that CI is close to selling its Medicare Advantage business for between $3 billion and $4 billion (that unit generated $7.9 billion in revenue in 2022).  Elsewhere, INTC said it would be spinning off its AI-related business into a separate company with the help of DBRG and other investors.  At the same time, Reuters reported that AIG is the lead insurer on a $130 million “all risks” policy for the A350 plane that crashed in Tokyo on Tuesday.  Later, GM announced it would offer $7,500 in incentives for its electric vehicles after the company lost $7,500 in government tax incentives because the company sources batteries and other parts from China.  Meanwhile, F said it would increase the price of its lowest-priced electric vehicles while cutting the price of its premium EV models by as much as $7,000.  At the same time, EQNR and BP announced they have terminated an agreement to sell electricity to NY state from their proposed offshore wind farm.  The companies cited higher borrowing costs and supply chain issues.  Later, Bloomberg reported that GOLD has been speaking to the major investors of FQVLF to determine if there is interest in a takeover.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the Dept. of Transportation reported that US airline flight cancellations fell to the lowest rate in more than a decade.  Less than 1.3% of 16.3 million flights were canceled in 2023.  At the same time, AAL, DAL, LUV, and UAL achieved a December on-time arrival rate between 83.7% and 99.6%.  Later, Reuters reported that GOOGL and META appear to have settled their fines with the Russian government.  Previous fines are no longer listed by the Russian government but the companies did not confirm or deny settlement.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that F had agreed to recall just under 113k F-150 trucks over safety concerns related to a rear axle hub bolt.  Elsewhere, AAPL agreed to settle a lawsuit alleging the company knowingly let scammers use its gift cards while keeping 30% of the proceeds of the fraud.  The settlement terms were not released and must still be approved by a federal judge.

After the close, the only major earnings report was from CALM, which missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned to the downside with seven of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Shenzhen (-1.24%), Singapore (-0.79%), and South Korea (-0.78%) led the losses while Malaysia (+1.02%) and India (+0.66%) paced the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses are leaning to the green side at midday.  Eleven of the 15 exchanges in that region are in the green with the CAC (+0.04%), DAX (-0.04%), and FTSE (+0.06%) leading on volume.  However, many of the smaller European exchanges are up more than a percent in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are mixed and basically flat.  The DIA implies a +0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.16% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 3.963% again and Oil (WTI) is up 1.00% to $73.43 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Dec. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), Dec. S&P Global Services PMI and Dec. S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.)  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CAG, LW, RDUS, RPM, and WBA before the open.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get Dec. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Participation Rate, Dec. Unemployment Rate, Nov. Factory Orders, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, GBX and STZ report.

In shipping news, Reuters reported that ocean freight rates are surging after weekend attacks and US Navy retaliation in the Red Sea.  The Asia-to-North America rate has more than doubled to $4,000 per 40-foot container and Asia-to-Mediterranean prices have risen to $5,175 per container.  (Some carriers announced $6,000 per container Asia-to-Mediterranean rates as of mid-month.)  However, it should be noted that these rates are still well below the pandemic-era rates. In addition, shipment time has risen from 7 to 20 days as ships have to reroute around Africa rather than using the shorter “Suez Canal and Red Sea” route.  WMT and AMZN have already reported product delays and inventory issues at the distribution center level.  (30% of East Coast import freight normally travels the Suez Canal route.) 

In miscellaneous news, oil prices rose Wednesday after supply concerns surfaced following the closure of Libya’s largest oilfield.  (This oil does not serve North America, but its removal impacted global oil prices, which rippled through to US oil prices.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that US bankruptcy filings rose 18% in 2023 on the back of higher interest rates.  However, it should be noted that bankruptcies are still far, far below the level seen PRIOR to the pandemic.  (For example, in 2019 there were 757,816 bankruptcies.  The 2023 number was 445,186 bankruptcies.)  So, despite the political rhetoric and protestations of the banking industry, the number of insolvencies is DOWN more than 41% from 2019.

So far this morning, CAG and WBA have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, RPM reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like markets are undecided so far this morning. The premarkets opened with a modest gap higher in all three major index ETFs. However, since then the trading has been indecisive with both large-cap index ETFs maintaining white-bodied candles while the QQQ and leans indecisively toward a black-bodied candle. The DIA is attempting a retest of its T-line (8ema) from below in the early session. So, while the Bulls hold on to the longer-term daily trend, we see the Bears in control of the shorter-term trend and so far today markets are undecided or waiting on news. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are truly extended but QQQ is the most extended of the group, all below their T-lines. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both the Bulls and Bears continue to have room to run if they gather the momentum to do it, but the Bears should continue to be hungry given that the Bulls were firmly in control the entire two months of 2023. Lastly, continue to keep an eye on the Tech Big Dogs. If we are seeing a rotation out of those names (which have dragged markets along for a year or more), it will be hard for markets to do anything except retreat.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service