Daily Trade Ideas Public Archives - Page 105 of 245

Gap Up to Pressure Any Greedy Bears

June 12, 2020 by Ed Carter

Fear of a second wave of coronavirus helped the bears take the bull to the woodshed Thursday on what turned out to be the worst day for markets since March. A 2.5% gap down at the open was followed-up with a steady all-day sell-off with the close near the lows. The SPY is just below its 200sma, while the DIA gapped clear through it and is halfway to its 50sma. The QQQ continues to hold its uptrend as it is still above even the 20sma. On the day, the SPY lost 5.74%, the DIA lost 6.80%, and the QQQ lost 4.95%. The VXX shot higher to 41.60 and T2122 fell sharply, but remains just inside overbought territory at 82.40. Bond yields fell sharply as money chased safety, closing at 0.669% and Oil (WTI) fell 8% to $36.36/barrel.

The Fed released data Thursday that showed total US debt (household, corporate, and government) grew by almost 12% in Q1. It had grown by 3.2% in Q4 of 2019. The total is now just under $56 trillion. The largest jump was 18.8% by business, followed by a 14.3% increase from government. Household debt only grew 3.9% for the quarter.

At the same time, new jobless claims fell again this week to 1.5 million (down from 1.9 million last week). There have been over 44 million new jobless claims made since the virus hit, but the trend has clearly been getting better in recent weeks. So, with this week’s significant improvement, it is odd to note that 24 states recorded increases in initial claims. In the larger context, the continuing claims fell but fell less than expected for the week, down to 21 million.

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On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,622,021 confirmed cases and 424,325 deaths. The UK, who followed the US lead and delayed lockdown and social distancing, reports its GDP fell 24.5% (year on year) and 20.4% (month to month) in April. This was significantly worse than the 18.4% month-to-month contraction that was expected.

In the US, we now have 2,089,825 confirmed cases and 116,036 deaths reported to date. For the sixth time this month, the state of NC has recorded a record number of hospitalizations. In TX, the city of Houston is close to needing to reverse its recent reopening measures. Discussion is underway about whether they need to open a temporary hospital at the NRG stadium, which was built in April, but never had to be used. In Nashville TN, the Mayor has decided to delay further opening after a recent rise in cases in the city. However, in NY state, they have opened up 5 more regions to business with some restrictions such as restaurants only being allowed 50% of normal indoor seating capacity.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but strongly leaning to the downside with only Shenzhen and India on the positive side. Europe is mixed, but strongly leaning to the upside, with only Russia and Greece in the red so far today. At 7:30 am, US futures are looking for a major rebound from Thursday’s pummeling, pointing to a gap higher of between 1.5% and 2.5% (the exact opposite of Thursday morning).

The major economic news for Friday is limited to May Imports/Exports (8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Expectations (10 am). There are no major earnings on the day.

The whiplash appears to want to continue. It’s early, but as of now, we’re looking at a gap up as big as yesterday’s gap down at the open. So, Mr. Market seems ready to punish the short-sellers who didn’t take profits at the close Thursday. And while the uptrend was broken in the large-caps, the QQQ held its channel. The bulls clearly have significant damage to repair, but a pullback had been long overdue. So, the sky is not falling and the longer-term trend continues to point higher as of now. Stay focused on the short-term chart. Above all don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

No Trade Ideas for Friday. (It’s payday, think about taking some off the table for the weekend.) However, keep an eye on the trading room and the Members Only App for tickers that come up today. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

The Fed Delivered But A 2nd Wave Feared

June 11, 2020 by Ed Carter

On Wednesday the large-cap pause continued while the techs tried to keep going. The QQQ gapped up just over 0.75% and ground sideways until the Fed announcements. Meanwhile, the large-caps gapped only slightly, then sold off shortly after the open. After the FOMC announcements, volatility reigned with large swings in all 3 indices, closing on a down leg. On the day, the QQQ was up 1.20% (to another all-time high), the SPY was down 0.56%, and the DIA was down 1.07%. VXX was flat at 31.13 and T2122 gave back a bit, but still remains deep in overbought territory at 90.91. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.736% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $39.06/barrel.

The FOMC seemed to give something to everyone. The statement promised that rates will remain near zero through at least 2022 (3 years total) and committed to keep on buying assets at the rate of $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities per month. They also forecast a 6.5% decline in GDP this year (2020), but a massive bounce-back to a 5% GDP gain in 2021. On top of this Treas. Sec. Mnuchin said that he backs another stimulus plan. So, traders got everything they could have hoped for…a Fed backstop, unlimited continued easing, and likely more fiscal stimulus to boot.

After the close, GRUB agreed to be purchased by European company Just Eat Takeaway (this was a big loss for UBER who had also been bidding on GRUB). Elsewhere, sources told CNBC that BA expects to make the first 737 Max recertification flight by the end of June. SBUX also said it is closing 400 of its North American stores while adding drive-through and carryout-only operations to many of the remaining locations. In positive news, F says they will return to normal production levels by July 6

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,482,740 confirmed cases and 419,494 deaths. In India, the spread is getting out of control with major cities’ hospitals out of ICU beds even as they continue to open the economy again. In China, high-end good sales have rebounded. For example, Jewelry sales increased by 30% in April and 90% in May compared to the same months in 2019. Other luxury categories report similar results as the Chinese economy is back to normal.

In the US, we now have 2,066,611 confirmed cases and 115,140 deaths reported to date. TX had a third straight day of record coronavirus hospitalizations. In CA, the 9 most populous counties also reported a spike in cases two weeks after Memorial Day. The latest data model projections are now forecasting 170,000 US deaths before October (the mean of model ranges of 133k to 290k). Fear of this resurgence seems to be driving futures today and recoloring the Fed announcements and statements from Wednesday.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red all across the board. The same is true in Europe, where there is no green to be seen in any of the bourses at this point in their day. At 7:30 am, US futures are going to follow the rest of the world, pointing to a gap down of between 1.5% and 2.5%.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to May Core PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to ADBE, LULU, PLAY, and PVH all after the close.

It looks like Mr. Market is going to punish those who got too bullish at the open. However, the bulls have been on a tear for weeks now and as we said, a pullback has been due. So, the sky is not falling and the trend continues to point higher as of now. Stay focused on the short-term chart and keep locking in those profits and moving stops as you go. As always, above all don’t chase or predict.

Because of the gap down today we will be posting the Trade Ideas in the trading room and on the Members Only App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Waiting on Fed Assurance?

June 10, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets did gap lower at the open, but bears could not get any follow-through as markets closed inside the previous candle in the large-caps. Meanwhile, the bulls kept running (like the bears didn’t even exist) in the QQQ. The tech names were led by new all-time high closes from AMZN, AAPL, FB, and MSFT. On the day the SPY closed down 0.70%, the DIA down 1.05%, and the QQQ up 0.72% to another all-time high. The VXX gained almost 5% to 31.27 and the T2122 dipped very slightly to 98.21. 10-yr. bond yields fell to 0.82% and Oil (WTI) resumed its rally, climbing to $38.73/barrel.

The FOMC announcements, statements, and press conference will be key today. The Fed skipped its normal forecasts in March. So, today will be the first look into their revised projections of where the economy and interest rates are headed for the remainder of the year and into 2021. (They last published forecasts in late 2019.) Chairman Powell’s statement will also be scrutinized word-by-word as some traders look for bad news (to get more stimulus) and others hope for reassurance that everything will soon be back to normal.

With the Fed taking center stage today, Asian Central Banks got a reprieve. Emerging market central banks had been under intense pressure with fund outflows and a lack of trickle-down help from China hurting their economies. (The Chinese People’s Bank of China resisted major stimulus plans of the kind the Fed, ECB, and BOJ all undertook.) However, reports released today say a recent reversal of funds flow (back to seeking risk), especially in South Korea and Thailand, has caused Asian currencies to stabilize and given those Central Bankers the luxury to wait on the Fed to lead the way.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,343,977 confirmed cases and 414,129 deaths. In South America, Peru surpassed 203,000 confirmed cases (significant for a country with less than one-tenth the population of the US). In Brazil, a Justice on the Supreme Court has ruled the government must publish its coronavirus data (despite their President’s decision to stop publishing it). As a result, Brazil added 33,000 cases to their previous count. In France, the govt. has announced a $17 billion bailout package for its airline industry, with about a quarter of that going to the national carrier Air France.

In the US, we now have 2,045,741 confirmed cases and 114,151 deaths reported to date. NYC reported a record low positive test rate Tuesday, with only 1% of all tests processed coming back positive. However, CA reports a surge in hospitalizations and confirmed cases in counties where just under half the state’s population reside. Elsewhere, AMZN announced plans to open their own testing labs to avoid delays when they implement their plan to test all employees every 2 weeks. (A move that comes in response to employee push-back over lax testing).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with all the indices not far from the flat line. However European stocks are lower across the board again so far today. At 7:30 am, US futures are mixed and closer to flat then has been normal recently. The large-caps are just in the red while the NASDAQ is looking to a half percent gap higher again.

The major economic news for Wednesday is May Core CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), May Federal Budget Balance, Fed Interest Rate Projections, FOMC Economic Forecast, FOMC Rate Decision, and FOMC Statement (all at 2 pm), and the FOMC Press Conference (2:30 pm). The only major earnings reports on the day are CHS, GES, RRGB, and UNFI before the open.

The bulls have been on a tear for weeks now. However, in the large-caps we may see a continuation of the pause waiting on more reassurance from the FOMC. That said, it does not look like the NASDAQ bulls are ready to slow down yet. With the Fed on tap this afternoon, I would not be surprised by a drift waiting on the statement or presser. Don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge, but remember we are also very extended and overdue for a rest. So, stay focused on the short-term chart and lock in those profits as you go. As always, above all don’t chase or predict.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration: CHWY, ZS, MS, USO, BAC, WDC, KO, WFC, EPD, BHC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

A Pause Before the Fed Statement?

June 9, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher and, despite a little morning profit-taking, rose steadily all day with a close very near the highs. The bulls seem very optimistic about reopening and economic recovery. On the day, SPY gained 1.21%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 0.78% (to another all-time high). Interestingly, the VXX also gained slightly to 29.82, and T2122 also squeezed-out another gain to 99.57. The 10-year bond yield fell a bit to 0.879% and Oil (WTI) also stepped back to $38.23/barrel.

At the end of the day, it was announced that the Fed is expanding its “Main Street” program allowing for both larger and smaller loans as well as increasing the repayment term to 5 years on loans. This news came as it was also confirmed that the US had entered a recession in February, as the economy led the government by a month in recognizing the importance of the pandemic.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,219,187 confirmed cases and 409,108 deaths. The world saw a record number of new cases in a day, with over 136,000 reported Sunday. In Israel, they have stopped reopening as they have seen a doubling of the new case rate in the last week coupled with a steep increase in deaths. However, the situation in places like Canada is improving, allowing them to ease border restrictions with the US, though still requiring a 14-day quarantine for incoming travelers.

In the US, we now have 2,026,597 confirmed cases and 113,061 deaths reported to date. FL and TX both reported big jumps in new cases this last week (46% and 50%). However, at least in FL, there was also an increase in testing which may help explain it away. However, in TX it is an increase in positive tests (up to over 7.5% of tests done in the state coming back positive) that is the cause. This resulted in a record number of hospitalizations in the state. Still, we are not seeing a medical system overload at this point as the state has 1,600 open ICU beds and over 5,800 ventilators available.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China, Hong Kong, Australia, and South Korea higher. However, Japan, India, Singapore, and Thailand led the others lower. European stocks are lower across the board so far today. At 7:30 am, US futures are also lower, pointing to a gap down of about one percent in the large caps and half a percent in the NASDAQ.

The only major economic news for Tuesday is April JOLTs (10 am). Earnings reports are also lite with BF.B, CONN, GCO, HDS, SIG, and TIF reporting before the open. Then AMC, CHWY, FIVE, GME, and VRNT report after the close.

The bulls have been running rampant, but futures are telling us that traders are taking some profits this morning. With no economic news on tap to stir the pot and waiting on the Fed statement Wednesday, markets may drift today. Don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge, but remember we are well overdue for a pause or pullback in this swing. So, stay focused on the short-term chart and lock in those profits as you go. Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration: OGI, VFF, AGS, TLRY, ZS, SMSI, NKE, HD, SQ, PTE, ASNA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Look To Follow-Up Big Week

June 8, 2020 by Ed Carter

The May Unemployment Report came in much better than expected and the bulls were off to the races Friday. After an almost 2% gap higher, a morning rally drove us to the highs by late morning. A grind sideways in a tight range took over for several hours, then profit-taking the last hour of the day pulled markets back into what the Bears might call a Shooting Star candle in the SPY and DIA. On the Day, DIA gained 3.12%, SPY gained 2.59%, and QQQ gained 1.98% (closing at an all-time high). The VXX fell below 30 for the first time in 3 months to 29.17 while the T2122 4-week High-Low Ratio proved it could go higher to close at 99.26. At the same time, 10-year bond yields rose to 0.893% while Oil (WTI) gained over 4% to close at $38.97/barrel. The Dow was up almost 7% on the week and the S&P up almost 5%.

On Saturday OPEC+ agreed to extend their production cuts for one more month even as oil prices have more than doubled in the 7 weeks since the start of the cuts. The one fly in the ointment is compliance to cut promises (some countries having only cut one-third as much as promised). Regardless, the cut extensions are good news for US shale producers who need prices where they are now or higher to make a profit.

Bloomberg reported on Sunday that sources tell them AAPL is looking to get further into the finance business. No word, on whether this is due to a demand slump. Either way, AAPL is reportedly preparing to sell their products and services via installments with either “6mo. no interest” or “12mo. no interest” payment plans. The move would have the additional benefit of forcing more adoption of the Apple Card as that is how payments would be managed.

Elsewhere on Sunday, in China, it was reported that May exports fell 3.3% year-on-year, after a surprising gain in April. However, May imports were down almost 5 times more than exports. As a result, China had a record trade surplus overall for the month, shipping almost $63 billion more than it imported. While the May numbers were bad, both the imports and exports handily beat average economist expectations reported by Reuters. It’s also worth noting that the US trade deficit with China widened by another $28 billion during the month.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 7,110,306 confirmed cases and 406,474 deaths. New case rates keep falling in the countries hit early. However, South American, the Middle East, and Africa all have exploding rates. The global daily new case number has grown to 100,000 per day for over a week, that is the highest daily average seen so far. Responses continue to vary, for example Brazil decided to simply stop reporting the number of new cases or related deaths as of the end of last week.

In the US, we crossed the 2 million case mark this weekend and now have 2,007,531 confirmed cases and 112,471 deaths reported to date. NYC has finally met the CDC guidelines and will begin the first phase of reopening today. At the federal level, an HHS Dept. official told CNBC the govt. supply of GILD’s Remdesivir (the only proven coronavirus treatment, which cuts hospital stay just over 25%) will run out at month-end. Speaking of GILD, over the weekend AZN approached GILD about a potential merger but were told there was no interest.

Overnight, Asian markets green across the board again, but still very mixed. India was up over 3% and Japan 1.4%, but at the same time China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia were dead flat. In Europe, stocks are mixed on either side of break-even at this point in their day. At 7:30 am, US futures are also mixed, with the NASDAQ just on the red side of flat, the S&P up 0.4%, and the Dow looking to gap up 0.7%. There are no major economic news or earnings reports on Monday.

The bulls have been running rampant, but Friday’s high wick may show some over-extension concern at this point. However, peaceful protests and no major economic stories did nothing to do dampen spirits over the weekend. So, Monday could see some follow-through to last week’s run. Don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge, but remember a pause or pullback is normal in uptrends. So, stay focused on the short-term chart and lock in profits as you go. Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration: FNGU, SNAP, UNH, SQ, HD, ORCL, PYPL, DRI, CRWD, ZS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Set to Ignore Economic News Again

June 5, 2020 by Ed Carter

As mentioned yesterday, the bulls paused Thursday. Bears might try to argue that resistance held, but the candles don’t exactly scream “failure” since all 3 major indices printed indecisive candles (Doji or Spinning Top). More to the point, there was no power behind any bearish move to this point. On the day, SPY closed down 0.25%, DIA closed up 0.05%, and QQQ closed down 0.71%. VXX was also flat, down slightly to 30.85 while the T2122 4-week High-Low Ratio climbed again to 98.84 (extremely overbought). 10-year bond yield rose to 0.823% as money left bonds, while Oil (WTI) rose just a bit to $37.32/barrel.

Before the open, initial jobless claims were worst than expected (1.877 million vs 1.7 million estimated) and continuing claims have reached 21.5 million. This has led to expectations that the May Unemployment rate will exceed 20%. However, the Fed also increased (initially $500 billion) and extended the length of its bond-buying program through at least June 2021. Elsewhere, the White House said they expect the next stimulus bill to be about $1 trillion, despite Senate Republican objections to any more stimulus for now.

In business news, after the close, AVGO warned of weak demand for smartphone components in their conference call. F also decided to postpone the return to work of salaried workers until September. In addition, JCP announced it will close 154 more stores as part of its bankruptcy exit plan and the largest mall operator in the US (SPG) is suing GPS over skipped rent payments the last couple months.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 6,726,982 confirmed cases and 393,616 deaths. In Spain, a new study found that 5.2% of the population has virus antibodies (has had coronavirus). Meanwhile, France reported that its outbreak is now “under control” largely because the public has accepted and worn masks. In the UK it was announced that public transport operations will resume on June 15, but all riders will be required to wear masks.

However, in the US, where the spread has been the worst, we have 1,924,189 confirmed cases and 110,179 deaths reported to date. The Director of the CDC told reporters he is seeing far too many people not following CDC guidelines for reopening, including not wearing masks or maintaining any social distance. At the same time, the 4 largest air carriers are increasing their number of flights 27% in June, albeit at a reduced capacity per plane.

Overnight, Asian markets green across the board again. European stocks are looking to follow suit, up 1%-1.5% as of midday. At 7:30 am, US futures seem to be falling in-line with the other regions, as they are pointing to a significant gap higher of between 0.8% and 1.2% with just the NASDAQ futures lagging (only pointing to a 0.4% gap up).

Friday’s major economic news includes May Hourly Earnings, May Non-farm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, and May Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am). The only earnings reports of note is TIF before the open.

The bulls remain in control, even as Thursday saw a pause. It looks like they want to take markets higher, at least at the open. Expected bad economic news seems no problem again and while protests continue, they are peaceful in a vast majority of locations. Continue to stay focused on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits. Remember its Friday. So, don’t hesitate to put some jingle in the bank ahead of the weekend news cycles. However, don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge. Above all, don’t chase or predict.

No Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration on Friday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

A Pause for Bulls to Catch Their Breath?

June 4, 2020 by Ed Carter

ADP Job Loss Numbers for May came in better than expected and that was all the bulls needed to control the market on the day. We saw a 0.70% gap higher at the open and steady follow-through until the last 10 minutes of the day, when minor profit-taking caused us to close off the high. On the day the SPY gained 1.30%, the DIA gained 2.06%, and the QQQ gained a mild 0.45%. In all 3 cases, the bears could at least make a case that resistance is temporarily holding (all-time highs in the case of the QQQ), but there is no doubting who is in-charge in the marketplace. VXX closed down to 31.11 and T2122 is even higher than the prior close at 97.98. 10-yr. bond yields rose to 0.751% and shockingly Oil (WTI) closed basically flat at $36.72/barrel.

During the day the next step in US-China tensions (trade war fear) took place as the US banned Chinese passenger airlines from flying to US destinations. This is a tit-for-tat response to China’s ban of US airlines (DAL and UAL), which was itself a response to US moves in reaction to the Hong Kong Security Law situation.

In business news, the CEO of PPC and executives of a smaller chicken producer (Claxton Poultry) were indicted for poultry price-fixing on Wednesday afternoon. PPC stock was hammered as a result and the impact spilled over into TSN, which had no executives named in the indictments.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 6,596,713 confirmed cases and 388,424 deaths. In Europe, the ECB is set to increase stimulus (buying Euro country bonds) as and when the economic impact numbers dictate according to the ECB President. Mexico has overtaken the US in terms of new daily cases of the virus, which is worrying for a country with far less than half the population and much less medical infrastructure.

In the US, we have 1,902,101 confirmed cases and 109,146 deaths reported to date. New cases in the state of TX were reported to be rising, now at +2.6% for the week. In fact, new case numbers are rising again across the South (with Louisiana being an interesting exception). DAL also announced it will cap plan capacity at 60% of pre-virus levels through September. However, on the positive side, GM announced they will be at pre-virus vehicle production rates by the end of June. Las Vegas has also opened its casinos and hotels at 50% capacity again as of today.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green again. However, European stocks are red across the board as of midday. (The FTSE rebalanced the members of its indexes, which may have some impact in the UK.) It is also worth noting that both Saudi Arabia and Russia are not backing away from production cuts previously announced now that oil demand has risen again. At 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to a gap lower of 0.3%-0.5%.

Thursday’s major economic news includes Apr. Imports/Exports, Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Apr. Trade Balance, and Q1 Unit Labor Cost (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports are limited to CIEN, GIII, MIK, NAV, SJM, and TTC before the open. Then after the close AVGO, CAL, COO, GPS, RH, and SAIC all report.

The bulls are still in control, but resistance and extension are very real at this point. After an impressive 4-day run-up, a pause may be in the cards. However, the trend and momentum are both in the bull’s favor. Even protest tensions have eased as the non-peaceful episodes have died out. Continue to stay focused on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits. However, don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge. Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. BA, MGM, WYNN, DRI, ERI, JPM, OIH, ORCL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

The Rally Remains Strong

June 3, 2020 by Ed Carter

Once again, the bullish run continued Tuesday led by Energy as bulls have their eyes focused out on the future post-recovery. After a small gap higher at the open markets ground sideways most of the day. However, a strong late-day rally closed the market very near its highs. On the day, the SPY was up 0.83%, the DIA up 1.02%, and the QQQ up 0.67%. The VXX fell to 32.49 and T2122 remains very high at 96.59. Oil (WTI) closed up over 4% to $36.90/barrel and 10-year bond yields climbed a bit to 0.684%.

In business news, WFC is worried about loan defaults. As a result, they have stopped making loans to and through independent car dealerships, who they perceive to be servicing riskier customers than major brand dealerships. In the process, WFC has had to drop hundreds of independent dealership customers.

The SBA announced that over $120 billion of PPP funds remain untapped. After an initial rush in the second round, demand for the loans/grants dried up. Small business organizations cited a fear of potential audits if a company takes the loans. Meanwhile, IL became the first state to tap the Fed loan fund, requesting $1.2 billion for a one-year loan after their bond yields rose.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 6,474,784 confirmed cases and 382,922 deaths. In Japan, the government issued another “stay home” alert for Tokyo after a “jump” in cases. (They had lifted restrictions on May 25.) Italy proved that the US isn’t the only place with conspiracy theorists as hundreds of protesters gathered in Rome to shout “Liberty” (calling for complete opening and dropping of restrictions) while their leaders claimed the pandemic never existed and is some global conspiracy.

In the US, we have 1,881,256 confirmed cases and 108,062 deaths reported to date. CNBC reported an industry group that cited a survey of restaurants found the number of transactions was only down 18% (year on year) as of the end of May. Of course, carryout and fast food in particular are bouncing back fast, with full-service still down just over 40%. Meanwhile, Amazon has announced plans for a major sale date (similar to Black Friday) for June 22 with the goal of “jumpstarting sales.” It is likely that other retailers will join the movement rather than yield all the sales to AMZN.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green across the board yet again. European stocks are following suit with the major bourses each up 1-2% as of midday. At 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to gap higher of 0.3%-0.6%.

Wednesday’s major economic news includes May ADP Non-farm Employment (8:15 am), May Service PMI (9:45 am), Apr. Factory Orders and May ISM Non-Mfg. Employment (both at 10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The only earnings reports of note are AEO, CNK, EXPR, GOOS, CPB and VRA before the open. Then after the close CLDR, FOSL and GEF report.

The bulls still see nothing but blue skies and optimism as they look past protests and pandemic damage. The trend, momentum, and a bit of room up to next resistance in the charts should give the bulls the edge again Wednesday. Even intraday swings have lessened very recently. Continue to stay focused on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits. However, don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge. Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. M, EOG, HAL, CF, MGM, HD, CB, AJG, NCLH, INO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls See Good Things Ahead

June 2, 2020 by Ed Carter

The bulls just kept on chugging Monday. A slight red open was met with steady, but slow buying until 2 pm. From there, stocks ground sideways to slightly down into the close. On the day, the SPY gained 0.41%, the DIA gained 0.39%, and the QQQ gained 0.30%. VXX was essentially flat at 33.42 and T2122 climbed further into the overbought territory at 93.18. The 10-year bond yield climbed a bit to 0.667% and Oil (WTI) also gained slightly to $33.56/barrel.

Markets seem to be focusing on the impending (and further out) economic recovery, regardless of current civil unrest and government reactions. UBER, LYFT, and SBUX are the latest to say the unrest is impacting their operations, as they are city-focused companies. In Silicon Valley, CEO Zuckerberg will address a company “town hall” for FB after several hundred employees staged a “virtual walkout” partially related to this on Monday.

On the trade war front, China has apparently ordered state-controlled companies to stop ordering US farm products (particularly soybeans). This seems to come in retaliation for the US response to a new security law covering Hong Kong. However, it is likely just the renaming of an actual lack of need that will reverse once China’s economy has fully recovered and their Pork producers have herds re-established. (China has been fighting African Swine Fever for close to a year and soybeans are a primary hog feed.)

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 6,394,415 confirmed cases and 377,971 deaths. While Brazil remains the epicenter of the current wave, Rio de Janeiro will begin opening its economy today. Meanwhile in Europe, Spain, Italy, and the UK all reported their lowest number of new cases or deaths since early in the outbreak.

In the US, we have 1,859,693 confirmed cases and 106,927 deaths reported to date. In a worrying sign, CA reported that their number of new cases has risen 11% in the last 5 days. On the other side of the country, the NY and NJ numbers continue to improve as they are opening further. The Congressional Budget Office released estimates Mondays that coronavirus will cost the US 3% of its economic growth (over the course of 10 years).

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green across the board again. So far Tuesday, European stocks are following suit with the major bourses each up 1-4% at midday. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to gap higher of 0.6%-0.7%.

There is no major economic news on Tuesday. Earnings reports are also very light with only a few that could be considered major companies. On tap for the day are DBRL, DCI, and DKS before the open as well as CRWD and ZM after the close.

Once again, the bulls see nothing but blue skies and optimism. They certainly continue to have the momentum and trend. However, we still see big intraday swings remain on most days. Keep your eye on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits. However, don’t bet against the trend unless you’re doing it to hedge. Above all, don’t chase or predict.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. MAR, RCL, FAS, GRUB, DISH, ALGN, TLRY, HLF, JD, ADP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Protests Sweep Country

June 1, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday was a day mostly of fear and waiting on a firestorm from the White House, only to realize it was nothing but a little hot wind. After the China presser amounted to nothing but “We’ll take action to eventually eliminate Hong Kong’s special treatment” markets rallied hard up off the lows the last hour of the day. At the close, the SPY was up 0.45%, the DIA flat at negative 0.02%, and the QQQ up strongly at +1.47% as tech issues rallied hardest off the non-event. The VXX closed down to 33.13 while the T2122 4-week High-Low Ratio fell slightly, but remains overbought at 85.29. The 10-year bond yield fell to 0.653% and Oil (WTI) rallied yet again to $35.32/barrel. With that said about the day, it is also important to recognize that markets rose about 5-6% during May.

The big story this weekend was coast-to-coast protests and some riots. Some businesses and traffic have been temporarily disrupted in a large number of places. The only major business responses have been that TGT (Minneapolis-based) and AAPL both closed stores, while AMZN closed distribution hubs located near protests. These protests have mainly been peaceful dissent to racial injustice and killings of blacks by police. But, some of the protesters have turned into rioters causing property damage, looting, injuries, and even a couple of deaths.

Government responses have been declarations of curfews, unlawful assemblies, and no-go zones, as well as the use of tear gas, knight sticks, and rubber bullets. There have been hundreds of arrests. Many states have also called out the National Guard. Atty. Gen. Barr and President Trump claimed that rioters are “far-left extremists.” So, on Sunday Trump declared ANTIFA to be terrorists. However, there has been no evidence produced yet of any organized group organizing or leading riots locally, let along nationally. (Side note: This whole episode must give the Chinese leadership a belly laugh. The US has denounced the Chinese for crack-downs, labeling protesters as terrorists, mass arrests, and employing similar tactics against public protests and riots over civil rights.)

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 6,290,758 confirmed cases and 374,335 deaths. On Saturday India reported a record jump in new cases, extended its lockdown in “containment zones” through June 30, while also allowing retail, restaurant and religious buildings to open in the other parts of the country. The EU adjusted its Steel Import Controls (the ones enacted in response to new US tariffs). The new measures fall short of import quota cuts (as had been requested by European Steelmakers), but are aimed at prohibiting any stockpiling of foreign steel while European makers are not back to capacity. Finally, Russia claims to have an effective treatment drug for the virus (mentioning that the only other potentially-effective drug to their own is the GILD drug remdesivir).

In the US, we have 1,837,578 confirmed cases and 106,198 deaths reported to date. CNBC reports that AAPL data shows Americans are driving at almost the same rate they did prior to the shutdown (based on navigation map requests and geo-data from phones). However, mass transit and restaurant bookings have barely recovered at all. Hotel bookings are in between, having recovered about 35% of the reduction caused by the shutdown.

An interesting tidbit from the supply chain. Since the stimulus checks hit in the US, the demand for computers and PC components has skyrocketed. Demand is as high now as at a normal December (Xmas season) and 25% higher than a normal May. So, it seems the economic pain of the shutdown has been exaggerated and a bunch of that money is going straight to computer upgrades and purchases. Combine this demand with a shipping bottleneck caused by port closures and the no passenger air flights (every passenger flight carries cargo in addition to people) and you get a May shortage of Motherboards, Graphics Cards, and Power Supplies (all sourced from China). This should abate sometime in June as transport capacity works through the backlog.

Overnight, Asian markets were in the green across the board as May factory numbers overrode the US-China trade war fears. However, European stocks are mixed, but mostly green so far today. As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat and mixed, with the country preoccupied by the protests/riots and government responses.

Major economic news on Monday is limited to May Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and May ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). There are also no major earnings reports on Monday.

The bulls continue to have the momentum and trend, but big intraday swings continue to be the norm. Keep your eye on the short-term chart and don’t hesitate to lock in profits. Above all, don’t chase or predict, and remain cautious about longer-term swing trades.

Trade ideas for your watchlist and consideration. PFE, ORCL, PANW, ENB, JNJ, SNAP, KHC, INTC, NDAQ, JNPR, ABBV. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching