On Thursday, the large-cap indices gapped modestly lower (down 0.21% in the SPY and down 0.24% in the DIA) while the QQQ opened flat (down just 0.05%).  The Bears followed through in the SPY and DIA, taking price on a rollercoaster ride down to the lows of the day at about 12:10 pm.  Meanwhile, QQQ also sold off but only until 10:30 am when a choppy sideways wave action lasted the rest of the day and left price up off the lows but still below the open.  SPY and DIA followed the QQQ starting at 12:10 pm.  This action left us with indecisive, black-bodied candles in all three indices.  The QQQ printed a Spinning Top, while the two large-cap indices were just black candles with a larger lower wick than the upper wick.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Financial Services (-1.55%) leading the way lower on regional bank concerns while Utilities (+0.58%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.71%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.35%.  VXX climbed 4.89% to 42.06 and T2122 dropped back down into the oversold territory at 10.02.  10-year bond yields climbed slightly to 3.373% while Oil (WTI) was flat on the day at $68.65 per barrel.  So, Thursday was an undecided day with a modest gap down (follow through on Wednesday’s Fed news) in the large caps. This led to choppy, mildly bearish action the rest of the day across the market.  This all happened on just less than average volume in all three major indices.    

In economic news, April Exports increased to $256.20 billion (compared to a March value of $250.90).  At the same time, April Imports fell to $320.40 billion (versus the March reading of $321.50 billion).  As a result, the April Trade Balance fell to $64.20 billion (from March’s $70.60 billion but still above the forecast of $63.30 billion).  In terms of quarterly data, Q1 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity fell significantly more than expected at -2.7% (as compared to a forecast of -1.8% and the Q4 final value of +1.6%).  This was in large part caused by a significantly higher than anticipated Q1 Preliminary Unit Labor Costs of +6.3% quarter-on-quarter (versus a forecast of +5.5% and a Q4 final number of +3.3%).  Meanwhile, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were just about as expected at 242k (compared to a forecast of 240k and a prior week’s value of 229k).  Then after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was reported lower at $8.504 trillion (versus the previous reading of $8.563 trillion or a $59 billion reduction).  At the same time, Bank Reserves held with the Federal Reserve grew to $3.166 trillion versus a previous value of $3.132 trillion).

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In stock news, JNJ’s spinoff IPO KVUE (the largest IPO in a long time) climbed on Thursday in its first day of trading.  The IPO was launched at $22.00 and closed at $25.53 (+17%) which gives it a market cap of $48 billion.  (JNJ still holds a 91.9% stake in the company.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that MSFT is working with AMD and helping finance the chipmaker’s expansion into AI processors.  At the same time, a German outlet reports that TSLA is actually using batteries from Chinese firm BYD to build Model Y cars in Berlin.  (This makes BYD the fourth external battery supplier for TSLA.)  Elsewhere in Europe, Reuters reports that UBS is considering an IPO to spin off the former Swiss banking operations of CS.  Meanwhile, AFLYY (Air France – KLM) is in talks with APO seeking a $550 million cash injection.  In Asia, Taiwan announced that LMT had informed the country that deliveries of 66 new F-16V fighters ($8 billion sale) will be delayed due to LMT supply chain issues.  The first deliveries had been scheduled for Q4 of 2023.  Finally, the CEOs and other executives of MSFT and GOOGL met with the President and Vice President Thursday.  The companies were told they have a legal responsibility to ensure their products are safe (related to AI inclusion to their products).  The two-hour meeting offered no specific guidelines, rules, laws, or threatened fines.  However, the White House did announce a $140 million investment into the National Science Foundation allowing it to launch seven AI research institutes focused on different aspects of Artificial Intelligence.

In stock legal and regulatory news, US appeals court judges seemed to take SBUX’s side in the coffee chain’s appeal of its loss of an NRLB case that found the company hurt or sought to hurt union organizing efforts by firing seven leaders of the organizing efforts in Memphis, TN.  The judges seemed to ignore the fact that the company fired those people to kill the union effort, instead focusing on the fact that, even after the firings, the Memphis SBUX store did vote to unionize.  Elsewhere, GM pleaded guilty to failing to take adequate safety precautions and thus causing the death of a worker in Canada.  The company agreed to pay a $325,000 fine over the case.  In France, the country’s antitrust agency told META it has two months to change its rules for ad verification partners to avoid being found to be taking unfair advantage of its dominant online advertising market position.  At the close, it was announced that KR has agreed to pay West Virginia $68 million to settle claims related to lax oversight in the opioid epidemic in the state.  Also after the close, AAPL complained that patent owner Arendi had revealed secrets (about how much AAPL paid to settle a patent infringement case) during a separate patent infringement case against GOOGL, violating a confidentiality agreement.  AAPL has asked a court for unspecified damages over the disclosure.

In regional banking news, it was another bleak day in the market for those regional banks.  PACW fell more than 50% on the Wednesday night news that it is “exploring its strategic options.” This opened the floodgates for the shorts to press the group leading WAL to fall 38% (on denied reports by the Financial Times that WAL is exploring a potential sale), FHN to drop 33% (this largely due to the premarket announcement that TD and FHN had called off their merger), and CMA to fall more than 12% for the day.  Still, there were a few winners, on volume, among those regionals.  SI was up 7% and BBD gained almost 2%.  It should be noted that Reuters reported after the close that US federal and state officials are investigating potential “market manipulation” behind recent huge regional banking share moves. 

After the close, AAPL, CNQ, OPEN, ED, EOG, SQ, RGA, BKNG, MSI, NCR, MCHP, LYV, CTRA, SEM, AMN, MNST, DASH, POST, COIN, MATX, CTNT, MTD, LYFT, CNXN, DBX, TDC, NOG, and KE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AIG, BCC, OTEX, COLD, BIO, and BGS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, LNT, FND, TXRH, TEAM, and DKNG all beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  Unfortunately, GT, RKT, EXPE, BECN, TSE, TDS, USM, AND ERJ all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It should be noted that OPEN, TPC, LYFT, BIO, and ATSG all lowered their forward guidance while POST, FTNT, and DKNG raised their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  India (-1.02%), Shenzhen (-0.82%), and New Zealand (-0.67%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+0.50%), Australia (+0.37%), and Malaysia (+0.35%) led the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly green at midday.  The CAC (+0.47%), DAX (+0.79%), and FTSE (+0.40%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures point to a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.48% open, the SPY is implying a +0.66% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.65% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 3.407% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.65% to $70.38/barrel in early trading.  

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include April Average Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and April Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AES, AMC, AMCX, AEE, AXL, AMRX, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CI, CNK, CNHI, D, ENB, EPAM, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GLP, GTN, HUN, IEP, JCI, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PBF, PAA, PAGP, QRTEA, WBD before the open.  Then, after the close, BAP reports. 

So far this morning, CI, MGA, PBF, JCI, OMI, EVRG, EPAM, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, AMRX, PNM, and FSK have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HUN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FLR, AES, QRTEA, FYBR, and GTN all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, WBD and UI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that OMI raised its forward guidance while EPAM and GTN lowered their guidance.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reported Thursday evening that during April, six of every 10 small businesses reported hiring (or trying to hire) new employees.  Related to earnings, as mentioned above AAPL beat on both lines on stronger-than-expected iPhone sales.  However, this was the company’s second consecutive quarterly revenue decline.  The report also showed a record for services including Apple TV+ and iCloud.  The company also announced a $90 billion share buyback program. 

With that background, it looks like the bulls are headed toward the T-line (8ema) in the large-cap indices while the QQQ has already tested and passed back above that level in premarket. Over-extension from the T-lines is not a problem and while T2122 is well into the oversold territory, it is not extremely extended. Don’t forget that we have preliminary April Payroll data this morning and that is likely to impact premarket and the open at the very least. Also, it’s Friday…payday…so pay yourself and get your account ready for the weekend news cycles.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened just on the green side of flat (up 0.11% in the SPY, up 0.12% in the DIA, and up 0.12% in the QQQ).  At that point, we saw a meander sideways dipping up and down until the Fed report.  However, at 2 pm all three of the major indices got very volatile for an hour.  Then a hard selloff took hold for the last hour of the day across the market.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with an upper wick, that closed very near the lows of the day in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  If you had squinted and called the prior three candles Evening Stars in those three, then you’d have to say that today we saw bearish follow-through.  All three of the indices are back below their T-line (8ema) with the SPY and DIA back down within 1.5% of their 50sma. 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.42%) leading the way lower while Healthcare (+0.63%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.69%, DIA lost 0.83%, and QQQ lost 0.65%.  VXX climbed 1.34% to 39.41 and T2122 climbed to just outside of the oversold territory at 20.13.  10-year bond yields dropped again to 3.362% while Oil (WTI) plunged another 4.77% to $68.22 per barrel.  So, to summarize, Wednesday was an undecided, slightly bullish day until the Fed announcement.  Then it got very volatile and the bears took over for good at 3 pm driving us lower into the close.  This all happened on just less than average volume in the SPY and QQQ and right at average in the DIA.     

In economic news, The April ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in far larger (double) than expected at +296k (compared to a forecast of +148k and the March value of +142k).  Later in the morning, the April S&P Global Composite PMI came in just shy of the anticipated level at 53.4 (versus a forecast of 53.5 but still better than the March reading of 52.3).  At the same time, US April Service PMI also came in just shy of expectation at 53.6 (compared to the 53.7 forecasted but also better than the March value of 52.6).  Then the April ISM Non-Mfg. PMI came in slightly above the anticipated value at 51.9 (versus a forecast of 51.8 and above the March reading of 51.2).  Next, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report showed a slightly larger than expected drawdown of 1.280-million-barrels (versus a forecasted 1.100-million-barrel drawdown but far less than the prior week’s 5.054-million-barrel draw).  However, this was all prelude to the Fed news.

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In Fed news, the FOMC raised rates one-quarter of one percent to a range of 5.00% to 5.25% as was widely expected.  Also, as they have been signaling for some time (to those who want to pay attention), the FOMC opened the door to at least a pause in rate hikes by dropping the language that said “some additional policy firming may be appropriate” and replacing it with “the extent to which additional policy firming may be required would take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy.” Then in his press conference, Fed Chair Powell flat out said, “we were no longer saying that we anticipate [some additional policy firming].”  Everything else about the statement and the press conference was normal, always leaving themselves wiggle room and firmly committing to nothing.  However, there were a couple of notable mentions.  Powell said, “The case of avoiding a recession is in my view more likely than that of having a recession.”  Finally, Powell tried to dissuade markets from expecting rate cuts soon by saying “We on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly.” … “It will take some time [for inflation to react to Fed moves that have already been made], and in that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates and we won’t cut rates.”  (Markets seem to be ignoring Powell on that count with Fed Fund Futures pricing in a 70% probability of a rate cut in September.)

In stock news, LLY announced Wednesday that a late-stage trial of its Alzheimer’s drug showed the drug slowed cognitive decline by 35%.  This was a bit better than similar studies from competitors BIIB and ESAIY, whose study found their drug slowed the decline by 27%.  In the car industry, TSLA resumed taking US orders for its Model 3 car at a price that is 18.5% below the August 2022 price.  However, the Model 3 is also eligible for a $3,750 US government tax credit.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported the F is facing another production issue causing three plant closures and an unspecified number of F-150 trucks to be parked unfinished due to a shortage of the correct door handle.  Elsewhere, DRI announced it is purchasing RUTH in an all-cash deal for $715 million.  At the same time, EADSF (Airbus) said Pratt and Whitney (owned by RTX) is having a hard time supplying enough engines and spare parts needed for Airbus to maintain its fleet.  This came after India’s third-largest airline filed for bankruptcy, citing the failure of RTX engines and lack of supplies as a reason. At the close, U announced it will lay off 8% (600 employees) of its workforce.  Also, after the close, OPCH said it is acquiring AMED in an all-stock deal worth $3.6 billion, which would be a 26% premium on the AMED May 2 closing price.  Finally, Bloomberg reported in the early evening that PACW is now “exploring strategic options” as 80% of the regional bank’s loan book is in the commercial and residential real estate markets.  PACW stock fell 60% in post-market trading on the news.

In stock legal and regulatory news, lawyers for HOOD presented arguments in a MA court on Wednesday.  The case is over whether the MA Sec. of State has the right to impose the fiduciary standard that brokers avoid or disclose conflicts of interest to the customer.  (As opposed to “gamifying” trading and selling customer orders to firms that front-run the trades.)  Elsewhere, Britain’s Competition and Markets Authority said on Wednesday that they are investigating the ADBE $20 billion buyout of cloud-based design platform Figma.  A “phase-1 decision” on how to treat the deal is to be announced by June 30.  At the same time, on the side of the pond, the SEC adopted new rules around the transparency of share buyback plans.  Under the new rules, companies will have to disclose average daily share repurchases on a quarterly or semi-annual basis.  Meanwhile, the FTC accused META of misleading parents about protections for children and proposed tightening an agreement with the company that would ban META from profiting off of data from minors.  At day’s end, GOOGL won a jury trial that had accused them of patent infringement related to the retrieval of information from a database.  The jury found the patent invalid since the same technology had been disclosed by others preceding the patent-holders’ claim to that tech.

After the close, ALL, QCOM, AVT, CTSH, CTVA, ZG, APA, WMB, MELI, MRO, EQIX, REZI, OPAD, IR, QRVO, HST, VAC, PSA, CENT, CENTA, VSTO, FLT, CCRN, SEDG, BHE, QGEN, NUS, TTEC, ETSY, CW, ANSS, HUBS, HCC, FG, MMS, MKSI, PARR, QDEL, Z, and SPNT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATUS, ATO, GL, ALB, TWI, ULCC, EQH, CODI, and AMED all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EADSY, MOS, FNF, SIGI, O, WES, CHRD, RUN, and PDCE all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, MET, YELL, CPE, GIL, WERN, WES, NVST, TTMI, UGI, and HOUS all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that QCOM, QRVO, and TTMI lowered their forward guidance, while IR and HST raised their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned toward the green side on modest moves.  Shenzhen (-0.57%) was the only appreciable loser Thursday while Hong Kong (+1.27%), India (+0.92%), and Shanghai (+0.82%) led the rest of the region higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, prices are nearly red across the board at midday.  Only Russia (+0.37%) is in the green while the CAC (-0.97%), DAX (-0.83%), and FTSE (-0.83%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.31% open, the SPY is implying a -0.36% open, and the QQQ implies a flat -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields continue to fall, now at 3.347% and Oil (WTI) is on the red side of flat at $68.47/barrel in early trading as recession fears weigh on markets.  

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include March Imports, March Exports, March Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Cost (all at 8:30 am), the Fed Balance Sheet and Bank Reserves with the Federal Reserve (both at 4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include GOLF, ATI, AEP, BUD, APG, APTV, ARNC, ARW, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BERY, BWA, BV, BRKR, CAH, CG, COMM, COP, CEG, DLX, DNB, EQNR, ES, RACE, FOCS, GTES, GPRE, DINO, HII, H, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITT, JLL, K, KTB, MMP, MLM, MDU, MRNA, MODV, NFE, NJR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OPCH, OGN, PZZA, PARA, PH, PTON, PENN, PCG, PNW, PLTK, PPL, PRMW, PRVA, PWR, RCM, REGN, RCL, SABR, SBH, SRE, SHEL, FOUR, SWK, STWD, TRGP, TFX, TU, BLD, UPBD, VNT, W, WLK, WRK, XYL, and ZTS before the open.  Then, after the close, ATSG, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BGS, BECN, BIO, SQ, BCC, BKNG, CNQ, CVNA, ED, CTRA, CWK, DASH, DKNG, DBX, ERJ, EOG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, GT, LYV, LYFT, MTZ, MATX, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NCR, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, CNXN, PBA, POST, KWR, RRX, RGA, RKT, SEM, SHOP, TDS, TXRH, TSE, TPC, and USM report.  

In economic news later this week, on Friday, April Average Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and the April Unemployment Rate.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AES, AMC, AMCX, AEE, AXL, AMRX, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CI, CNK, CNHI, D, ENB, EPAM, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GLP, GTN, HUN, IEP, JCI, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PBF, PAA, PAGP, QRTEA, WBD and BAP report.

So far this morning, SHEL, CAH, EQNR, MT, BUD, DINO, NVO, MRNA, PCG, WRK, BDX, WCC, BCE, APTV, PWR, SRE, W, REGN, HII, ES, ARNC, APG, XYL, BLD, SBH, VNT, BV, TFX, GOLF, BRKR, MODV, DLX, DNOW, LAMR, FOUR, DDOG, GCI, GEL, PARAA, and RITM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, COP, SWK, WLK, ZTS, IRM, KTB, OGE, RCM, STWD, and BALL all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NRG, CEG, AEP, BWA, CG, PENN, H, OPCH, PTON, and PRMW all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, PARA, BHC, and NFE missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that DDOG made the only guidance adjustment, raising its forecasts.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reports that TD and FHN have agreed to terminate their $13 billion previously agreed merger.  JNJ priced its KVUE IPO at $22/share and increased the number of shares to be offered to almost 173 million (JNJ will still own 90% interest in KVUE after the IPO, which is expected to close Monday, May 8.  CNBC reported a rumor that AAPL will announce a new $90 billion share buyback program for the year (equal to the 2022 buyback amount).  In the previous decade, AAPL spent more than $572 billion on share buybacks.

With that background, it looks like the bears are now in control in the premarket, especially in the large-cap indices. All three major indices are trading below their T-lines again at this point. Over-extension from the T-lines is not really a problem, though DIA is getting a touch stretched to the downside, and T2122 is back up just outside the oversold territory. So, the pressure to rebound is not heavy yet. With the Fed having told traders what we expected and wanted to hear, we’ve now had the overnight to rethink whether the FOMC and Powell painted too rosy a picture, whether a banking crisis will tip us into a recession, or whether the Wednesday reaction went too far (or not far enough). Don’t be surprised if the Bulls pull a reversal, but don’t bet on it either. Follow trend, don’t predict.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets opened just on the red side of flat again (down 0.18% in the SPY, down 0.15% in the DIA, and down 0.01% in the QQQ).  However, after the tepid open, the bears stepped in to drive a strong selloff that reached the lows of the day at about 11:30 am in all three major indices.  From that point, the rest of the day was a sideways meander with a modest bullish trend.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with large lower wicks in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  The QQQ retested and held above its T-line (8ema) while the two large-cap indices closed just below their 8emas.  It also does not take too much imagination to see all three major indices as an Evening Star-type candle.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-4.17%) leading the way lower while Basic Materials (-0.40%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 1.12%, DIA lost 1.02%, and QQQ lost 0.87%.  VXX climbed 4.43% to 38.89 and T2122 dropped down well into the oversold territory to 11.11.  10-year bond yields plummeted again to 3.435% while Oil (WTI) plunged 5.34% to $71.62 per barrel.  So, to summarize, Tuesday was the bears’ day ahead of today’s Fed decision.  This all happened on a little shy of the average volume in all three major indices.     

In economic news, March Factory Orders came in below expectation at +0.9% (versus a forecast of +1.1% but much better than the February reading of -1.1%).  At the same time, the labor market remained strong as March JOLTs Job Openings came in lower than anticipated at 9.590 million (compared to a forecast of 9.775 million and a February value of 9.974 million).  So, Factory activity continues to grow but at a slow pace, while the labor market is slowly tightening, with 400k fewer openings in March than in Feb.  After the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report showed a much larger than expected oil inventory drawdown of 3.939-million-barrels (versus a forecast of a 1.000-million-barrel drawdown but still much less than the prior week’s 6.083-million-barrel drawdown.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, regional banks took a beating again Tuesday with PACW closing down 27.78%, WAL down 15.12%, and even much larger USB down 7.01% and TFC down 7.61%. Elsewhere, electric vehicle maker MULN announced that has received a 1,000-truck order ($63 million) with first deliveries scheduled to begin in August.  At the same time, Reuters reported the US will announce another $300 million military aid package for Ukraine as soon as today.  The new package will include air-launched rockets, 155mm shells (both made by GD), HIMARS missiles (from LMT), TOW missiles (from RTX) as well as other miscellaneous munitions.  After the close, PNC bank said it can offer $15 billion of its short-term commercial paper (very liquid and generally secure) to calm market worries over liquidity.  This announcement was made even after the bank reported a rise in deposits and profits during Q1.  Finally, despite a blowout success in its quarterly report Tuesday night, F announced it is cutting the price of the Mustang Mach-E again as the price war with TSLA continues.

In stock legal and regulatory news, VMW lost the retrial of its patent infringement case filed by Densify and will pay $84.5 million in the verdict.  (This is much less than the original verdict of $237 million from 2020 which was thrown out on appeal.) Elsewhere, the US SEC will vote today on whether to adopt new rules increasing transparency from the advisors to hedge and private-equity funds. Meanwhile, after the close, AMGN sued NVS for patent infringement over drugs AMGN has sold $5.6 billion of and NVS has now proposed launching generic versions.  At the same time, the White House has summoned the CEOs of GOOGL and MSFT (as well as others) to a Thursday meeting to discuss AI issues and potential regulation.  In bankruptcy news, CNNWQ received court approval to raise $2.26 billion as part of its exit from bankruptcy.  Finally, the US Dept. of Transportation announced Tuesday that it will not extend the July 1 deadline for plane 5G retrofits as had been requested by airlines.  And Airline industry group said this may cause airline operational disruptions during the peak summer travel season.

After the close, F, SBUX, AMD, MUSA, AIZ, CZR, CLX, CWH, AFG, WELL, THG, AXTA, WU, CHK, RNR, LFUS, CRK, JKHY, BFAM, MTW, HY, and UIS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, OKE, ANDE, EIX, AMCR, UNM, YUMC, UFPI, ENLC, EXPI, MTCH, and CLW missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRU, LUMN, VOYA, HLF, SPG, MCY, EXR, and GPOR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ET, SMCI, BXC, and ASH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMCR, MTCH, and ASH lowered their forward guidance.  However, CLX, SMCI, LFUS, JKHY, and PAYC all raised their forward guidance.  (It is also worth noting that F had 62% upside surprise, YUMC had a 61% upside surprise, AIZ had a 55% upside surprise, CZR had a 50% upside surprise, SWH had a whopping 169% upside surprise, THG had an 86% upside surprise, and BFAM had a 44% upside surprise on earnings.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly red.  Hong Kong (-1.18%), New Zealand (-1.08%), and Australia (-0.96%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses lean heavily to the green side with only three spots of red on the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.68%), DAX (+0.82%), and FTSE (+0.22%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, the Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.11% open, the SPY is implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.407% and Oil (WTI) is plummeting again (by 3.07% this time) to $69.47/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 am), Services PMI (9:45 am), April ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Rate Decision and Fed Statement (both at 2 pm), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADNT, ALGT, AVNT, AVA, GOLD, BDC, BGCP, EAT, BIP, BLDR, BG, CDW, CHEF, CLH, SID, CVS, XRAY, DBD, DRVN, EMR, EL, EEFT, EXC, FTS, GRMN, GNRC, GFF, HBI, HZNP, INGR, JHG, KHC, LPX, MUR, NI, PSN, PSX, RXO, SMG, SBGI, SITE, SR, SPR, STLA, TKR, TT, TRMB, UTHR, VRSK, and YUM before the open.  Then, after the close, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AMED, ANSS, HOUS, APA, ATO, AVT, EQH, BHE, BKH, CPE, CENT, CENTA, CDAY, CHRD, CIVI, COKE, CTSH, CODI, CTVA, CCRN, CW, NVST, EQIX, ETSY, FG, FLT, FNF, ULCC, GIL, GL, HST, IR, IOSP, MRO, VAC, MMS, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOS, NFG, OPAD, PARR, PDCE, PSA, QGEN, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, O, REZI, SIGI, SEDG, RUN, TWI, TTEC, TTMI, UGI, VSTO, WERN, WES, WMB, XPO, YELL, and Z report.    

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get March Imports, March Exports, March Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Cost, the Fed Balance Sheet, and Bank Reserves with the Federal Reserve.  Finally, on Friday, April Average Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and the April Unemployment Rate. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from GOLF, ATI, AEP, BUD, APG, APTV, ARNC, ARW, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BERY, BWA, BV, BRKR, CAH, CG, COMM, COP, CEG, DLX, DNB, EQNR, ES, RACE, FOCS, GTES, GPRE, DINO, HII, H, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITT, JLL, K, KTB, MMP, MLM, MDU, MRNA, MODV, NFE, NJR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OPCH, OGN, PZZA, PARA, PH, PTON, PENN, PCG, PNW, PLTK, PPL, PRMW, PRVA, PWR, RCM, REGN, RCL, SABR, SBH, SRE, SHEL, FOUR, SWK, STWD, TRGP, TFX, TU, BLD, UPBD, VNT, W, WLK, WRK, XYL, ZTS, ATSG, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BGS, BECN, BIO, SQ, BCC, BKNG, CNQ, CVNA, ED, CTRA, CWK, DASH, DKNG, DBX, ERJ, EOG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, GT, LYV, LYFT, MTZ, MATX, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NCR, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, CNXN, PBA, POST, KWR, RRX, RGA, RKT, SEM, SHOP, TDS, TXRH, TSE, TPC, and USM.  Finally, on Friday, AES, AMC, AMCX, AEE, AXL, AMRX, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CI, CNK, CNHI, D, ENB, EPAM, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GLP, GTN, HUN, IEP, JCI, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PBF, PAA, PAGP, QRTEA, WBD, and BAP report. 

In miscellaneous news, fear of another potential pandemic (and potential threat to the poultry supply) is taking shape in the UK.  Thousands of dead wild birds litter England.  The problem is so bad the British government has warned dog walkers to keep their animals on leashes at all times to keep the dogs from eating birds or bird droppings.  The avian flu isn’t contained to the UK either as the USDA has reported at least 170 confirmed cases of mammals (mostly cats and dogs) picking up the disease in the US from this latest wave.  This comes after more than 60 million chickens and turkeys died or were culled to prevent the spread of the last wave in 2022. The good news is that dating back to 1997, there are less than 900 confirmed cases of humans contracting the earlier variants of the avian flu.

So far this morning, CVS, PSX, KHC, BLDR, EXC, EMR, TT, GOLD, FTS, NI, AVNT, GRMN, CLH, GNRC, TKR, EAT, XRAY, PSN, SR, VRSK, JHG, BDC, MUR, CHEF, DRVN, HSC, FDP, and QUAD have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CDW, BIP, INGR, SMG, LPX, TRMB, and UTHR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BG, EL, YUM, BLCO, SITE, EEFT, and ALE beat on revenue while missing on the earning line.  Unfortunately, SPR, HZNP, DBD, and AVA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CVS, BLDR, and TRMB lowered their forward guidance.  However, KHC, EMR, INGR, TKR, CHEF, and HSC all raised their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the large-cap indices are retesting their T-lines (8ema) in the premarket and the tech-heavy QQQ is pushing up away (a bit) from its own. We all know that today will be all about the Fed. So, don’t be surprised with either a dead market or chop going back and forth in an indecisive way right up to 2 pm. Over-extension from the T-lines is not a problem and while T2122 is well into the oversold territory, it is not extremely extended. Don’t get caught predicting the reaction to the FOMC. And, also remember that there tends to be a knee-jerk, followed by a re-reaction…and then an “on second thought” move the next morning when there is a Fed announcement. Be prepared.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened on the red side of flat, mostly gapping very mildly lower (down 0.13% in the SPY, up 0.02% in the DIA, and down 0.18% in the QQQ).  From that point, it was a whipsaw day that saw the bulls marginally in control in the morning and the bears marginally in control in the afternoon.  This action left us with indecisive candles in all the major indices.  The QQQ printed a DOJI Harami, the SPY printed a Gravestone Doji Harami, and the DIA printed a black-bodied Inverted Hammer-type candle.  All three remain above their T-lines (8ema) and nothing appreciable has changed in any of those charts. This all happened on less-than-average volume across the market. 

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-0.84%) leading the way lower while Healthcare (+0.71%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.10%, DIA lost 0.18%, and QQQ lost 0.11%. VXX fell 1.64% to 37.24 and T2122 dropped back a little further into the mid-range at 65.55.  10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.57% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.41% to $75.70 per barrel.  So, to summarize, Monday was a nothing-burger of indecision as markets showed no ill effect from the failure of FRC (acquired by JPM) and seem to be waiting on the Fed or more earnings to move the needle.     

In economic news, April Manufacturing PMI came in below expectation at 50.2 (versus a forecast of 50.4 but still above the March reading of 49.2).  (Anything above 50 indicates economic expansion.)  Later, April ISM Manufacturing PMI came in above expectation at 47.1 (compared to a forecast of 46.8 and a March value of 46.3).  April ISM Manufacturing Employment was well above the anticipated level at 50.2 (versus a forecast of 47.9 and a March level of 46.9).  Finally, April ISM Manufacturing Prices came in well above what was expected at 53.2 (compared to a forecast of 49.0 and a March reading of 49.2).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, RIDE warned of potential bankruptcy after Foxconn (one of the electric automaker’s largest investors) alleged RIDE has breached the agreement between the two companies.  This puts $170 million in funding for RIDE at jeopardy.  Elsewhere, AAL pilots have authorized the union to call a strike (96% of pilots voted and 99% of those voted in favor of a strike authorization). No strike date is set as this is negotiation leverage, not imminent action.  Later, after the close, Bloomberg reported that IBM has paused hiring with plans to replace up to 7,800 jobs (30% of its non-customer-facing jobs) with AI in coming years.  At the same time, Reuters reports that MS will cut 3,000 jobs in Q2.  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that META is looking to raise $8.5 billion in a 5-part bond offering.  (META raised $10 billion using the same mechanism in 2022.)  Finally, overnight, TSLA hiked prices on Model 3 and Model Y cars (in the US, China, Canada, and Japan only) in what seems to be a plea for help by either the CEO or senior management.  This minuscule $250 hike in price (on a $40k to $47k original price) and coming after price cuts earlier in the year make it seem like they are flailing around looking for a pricing strategy.

In stock legal and regulatory news, Reuters reported Monday that the EPA may delay a decision on giving eRIN credits to Electric Vehicle makers under a renewable fuel program.  The reason for the delay is that the House GOP wants to file a legal challenge on behalf of the fossil-based Energy industry, as they claim those credits were intended only for biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) manufacturers.  This delay will impact TSLA most heavily, but all other electric vehicle makers as well, who will not get the credits they were expecting since the fall.  In other EV news, FSR received certification from EU regulators and will begin delivering its “Ocean” electric SUVs on Friday.  Meanwhile, a US federal judge gave F a win.  He ruled that while Versata Software had proven that F stole their trade secrets in breach of their agreement, the defendant had not provided enough evidence of the damages suffered to justify a lower court jury award of $105 million. Instead, the judge ordered F to pay a massively-reduced $3 million.

LEG, TEX, ANET, FLS, SBAC, AL, SGRY, WWD, INVH, KMT, and VICI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, SON, FMC, and SCI all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CYH, RE, OGS, CNO, and RIG all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, FANG missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SYK, NXPI, SFM, TEX, SBAC, SGRY, and WWD all raised their forward guidance.  However, AMKR lowered its forward guidance. 

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the green side.  Shanghai (+1.14%), Shenzhen (+1.09%), and South Korea (+0.91%) led the region higher with Australia (-0.92%) showing any appreciable loss.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly in the red on moderate moves at midday.  The CAC (-0.41%), DAX (-0.19%), and FTSE (-0.01%) lead the region lower with three minor bourses modestly in the green in early afternoon trade.  As of 7 am, US Futures are pointing toward a slightly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.22% open, the SPY is implying a -0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a flat -0.03% open at this hour.  Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are back down to 3.536% and Oil (WTI) is off another seven-tenths of a percent to $75.16/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday are limited to March Factory Orders and March JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADT, AER, AGCO, ARLP, ABC, AME, BP, BR, CX, CQP, LNG, CIGI, CEIX, CEQP, CMI, DORM, DD, ETN, ECL, EPD, ESAB, EXPD, FELE, IT, GVA, GPK, HWM, HSBC, IDXX, IHRT, ITW, INCY, NSIT, LDOS, MDC, MPC, MAR, TAP, MLPX, MD, PFE, PEG, QSR, SEE, SUN, SYY, TROW, TRI, TRN, UBER, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open.  Then, after the close, AMD, AMCR, AFG, ANDE, ASH, AIZ, AXTA, BXC, BFAM, CZR, CRC, CWH, CHK, CLW, CLX, EIX, ET, ENLC, EQX, EXPI, F, THG, HLF, JKHYLFUS, LUMN, MTW, MTCH, MCY, MUSA, OKE, PGR, PRU, RNR, SPG, SBUX, SMCI, UNM, VOYA, WELL, WU, and YUM report.   

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Services PMI, April ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference all happen.  Thursday, we get March Imports, March Exports, March Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Cost, the Fed Balance Sheet, and Bank Reserves with the Federal Reserve.  Finally, on Friday, April Average Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and the April Unemployment Rate. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ADNT, ALGT, AVNT, AVA, GOLD, BDC, BGCP, EAT, BIP, BLDR, BG, CDW, CHEF, CLH, SID, CVS, XRAY, DBD, DRVN, EMR, EL, EEFT, EXC, FTS, GRMN, GNRC, GFF, HBI, HZNP, INGR, JHG, KHC, LPX, MUR, NI, PSN, PSX, RXO, SMG, SBGI, SITE, SR, SPR, STLA, TKR, TT, TRMB, UTHR, VRSK, YUM, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AMED, ANSS, HOUS, APA, ATO, AVT, EQH, BHE, BKH, CPE, CENT, CENTA, CDAY, CHRD, CIVI, COKE, CTSH, CODI, CTVA, CCRN, CW, NVST, EQIX, ETSY, FG, FLT, FNF, ULCC, GIL, GL, HST, IR, IOSP, MRO, VAC, MMS, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOS, NFG, OPAD, PARR, PDCE, PSA, QGEN, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, O, REZI, SIGI, SEDG, RUN, TWI, TTEC, TTMI, UGI, VSTO, WERN, WES, WMB, XPO, YELL, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from GOLF, ATI, AEP, BUD, APG, APTV, ARNC, ARW, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BERY, BWA, BV, BRKR, CAH, CG, COMM, COP, CEG, DLX, DNB, EQNR, ES, RACE, FOCS, GTES, GPRE, DINO, HII, H, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITT, JLL, K, KTB, MMP, MLM, MDU, MRNA, MODV, NFE, NJR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OPCH, OGN, PZZA, PARA, PH, PTON, PENN, PCG, PNW, PLTK, PPL, PRMW, PRVA, PWR, RCM, REGN, RCL, SABR, SBH, SRE, SHEL, FOUR, SWK, STWD, TRGP, TFX, TU, BLD, UPBD, VNT, W, WLK, WRK, XYL, ZTS, ATSG, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BGS, BECN, BIO, SQ, BCC, BKNG, CNQ, CVNA, ED, CTRA, CWK, DASH, DKNG, DBX, ERJ, EOG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, GT, LYV, LYFT, MTZ, MATX, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NCR, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, CNXN, PBA, POST, KWR, RRX, RGA, RKT, SEM, SHOP, TDS, TXRH, TSE, TPC, and USM.  Finally, on Friday, AES, AMC, AMCX, AEE, AXL, AMRX, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CI, CNK, CNHI, D, ENB, EPAM, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GLP, GTN, HUN, IEP, JCI, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PBF, PAA, PAGP, QRTEA, WBD, and BAP report.  

In miscellaneous news, on Monday the US Treasury Department warned that the government could run out of cash by June 1 without a debt limit increase.  In response, the President called the Majority and Minority leaders of both Houses of Congress, inviting them to a May 9 meeting to talk about the debt ceiling and federal spending.  In other news, after JPM acquired FRC on Sunday night, CEO Jamie Dimon reversed his recent warnings and said the “banking crisis” may be over for now.  He went on to point out that many regional banks have posted good first-quarter results.  Dimon’s rival, CEO of C, Jane Fraser agreed saying the US banking system is “the envy of the world” (which, to be fair, is not the same thing as saying it is in great shape).

So far this morning, ABC, PFE, ETN, DD, UBER, GPK, ZBH, AME, QSR, ZBRA, MDC, IDXX, MAR, MPLX, TROW, TRI, MD, and IT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, BP, MPC, and EPD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, LDOS, and TRN both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, GVA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (There are many others reporting later this morning.)  It is worth noting that ABC, ETN, and IT have raised their forward guidance.  Meanwhile, DD and ZBRA have both lowered guidance.

With that background and with the possible exception of DIA, it looks like the market is looking to open flat again today as we wait on the Fed decision and the digestion of a flood of earnings. All three major indices are above their 3ema, T-line (8ema), and 17ema…all of which are also trending higher. SPY and DIA continue to face a resistance level right near the Friday close. However, immediate resistance for QQQ is less than obvious. Over-extension is not a problem in any of the major indices. With so much in the air, it is quite possible that a good part of at least today and Wednesday will be spent in “wait and see” mode. The Fedwatch tool tells us that confidence in a 0.25% rate hike by the Fed is even stronger than yesterday, up to 91% probability. The other 9% probability is for “no hike.” Beyond this week, futures still currently see little (32% on the largest probability and that for a quarter-point hike in June) chance of an additional increase this year and most are actually still betting on rate decreases sometime in the Fall. (That would be against what the Fed has repeatedly said, but that is what the Fed Fund Futures tell us.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

After a small gap lower to get the session started (gapping down 0.23% in the SPY, down 0.33% in the DIA, and down just 0.07% in the QQQ at the open) the Bulls had another day in charge on Friday.  From that open, with the sole exception of a 30-minute pullback at 10:30, all three major indices saw a slow, steady rally all day long and went out on their highs.  This took the SPY and DIA to just above (still in a retest) the mid-April highs and left the QQQ a new high not seen since August 2022.  This action gave us large, white Marubozu (Shaved Head) candles in the SPY and DIA.  The QQQ had a small lower wick and not quite as large candle, but still a strong showing for the Bulls.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.79%) by far out in front of the rest and Communications Services (-0.24%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.85%, DIA gained 0.84%, and QQQ gained 0.69%. VXX fell 4% to 37.82 and T2122 climbed up to the top of the mid-range, just outside of the overbought territory at 78.77.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.433% while Oil (WTI) gain 2.50% to $76.63 per barrel.  So, slowing inflation and generally good earnings trumped everything else on the last trading day of April despite fears for the future of FRC (a regional bank).  This all happened on average volume in all three major indices.      

In economic news, March PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) showed a slower-than-expected increase in prices at +0.1% month-on-month (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and the February reading of +0.3%).  On an annualized basis, that brought the reading down to 4.2% from a 5.0% reading just one month earlier and a 5.3% reading at the end of February.  While you could say the glass is half empty by noting inflation is still far above 2%, it is undeniable that there has been a strong and steady decline in this inflation metric since July 2022.  And it’s quite likely that the trend is what all but the Fed ultra-hawks will latch onto.  However, in other inflation-relation economic news, the Q1 Employment Cost Index came in above expectation at 1.2% (versus a forecast and previous value of 1.1%).  (This may be a preliminary reading, it was not marked and I am unsure.)  Later in the day, Chicago PMI came in above the anticipated level at 48.6 (compared to a forecast of 43.5 and the March reading of 43.8).  Finally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment remained where it was expected at 63.5 (versus the forecast and prior value which were both also 63.5).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, on Friday, MBGAF (Daimler) announced a $650 million joint venture with NEE and BLK to develop and operate a nationwide network of public charging stations and hydrogen fueling stations in the US.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Defense awarded a $7.8 billion contract modification to LMT for building 126 F-35 aircraft.  In the oil business, the big names are rolling in cash with XOM having $32.6 billion on hand and CVX having more than $15 billion of cash.  The two differ on what to do, as the CEO of XOM said Friday he is happy to hold a large surplus for the next downturn although he is not averse to a particularly good acquisition. On the other side, the CEO of CVX said he did not intend to sit on $15 billion in cash because it is economically inefficient.  Wall Street is pushing both to again increase buybacks and dividends rather than spend cash on acquisitions.

In stock legal and regulatory news, an Inspector General report released Friday said that FAA Engineers recommended the grounding of 737 MAX planes (BA’s best-selling jet at the time) very soon after the second major crash in March 2019.  However, FAA officials in Washington delayed the grounding despite analysis that told them there was a 25% chance of another crash within 60 days.  The grounding was eventually forced and lasted 20 months. On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal reported US regulators had asked big banks for their “best and final bid” to acquire FRC.  The report said that JPM and PNC have expressed interest and BAC and a few others are also considering making a bid.  Bids are due Sunday and immediate action is expected.  So, by the time this blog comes out, the FDIC seizure, receivership, and transfer of ownership may well have already happened.  Meanwhile, the US FDA voted to allow the restricted use of an experimental prostate cancer drug from AZN.  Elsewhere, ENR and WMT were sued by consumers and other retailers in three proposed class action lawsuits.  The suits allege the two companies conspired to raise disposable battery prices and keep WMT as the cheapest battery offering.  (If any retailer offered a lower price than WMT, the company would be cut off from ENR battery supply.)  Finally, on Friday, the state of CA approved new rules that will require all new medium and heavy-duty trucks in the state to be zero emission in 2036.  The rules also require existing fleets of semis, buses, garbage trucks, government fleets, etc. to be transitioned by 2039.

In banking news, as expected, late Sunday the FDIC seized FRC and then immediately sold the company to JPM.  JPM beat out bids from PNC and CFG (BAC and USB were invited but did not bid).  The process will cost the FDIC $13 billion (compared to $20 billion from the SIVB failure) and JPM has paid $10.6 billion.  In the purchase, JPM acquired $92 billion in deposits, is taking on $173 billion in loans, and about $30 billion in securities.  JPM also gains 84 branches (which will be open today). 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green.  Shanghai (+1.14%), Shenzhen (+1.09%), and Taiwan (+1.09%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  Six of the bourses are in the red while nine are in the green.  The DAX (+0.77%), CAC (+0.10%), and FTSE (+0.50%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.02% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.05% open at this hour.  Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields at up to 3.458% and Oil (WTI) is down 2% to $75.25/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Monday are limited to April Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and April ISM Manufacturing PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AMG, CHKP, CAN, BEN, GPN, KBR, NCLH, ON, PK, and WEC before the open.  Then, after the close, AMKR, ANET, CAR, CF, CNO, CYH, CVI, FANG, RE, FLS, FMC, HOLX, INVH, KMT, LEG, MGM, NXPI, OGS, RYI, SBAC, SCI, SON, SFM, SYK, SGRY, TEX, RIG, VRTX, VIVI, and WWD report.   

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get March Factory Orders, March JOLTs Job Openings, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Services PMI, April ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference all happen.  Thursday, we get March Imports, March Exports, March Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Cost, the Fed Balance Sheet, and Bank Reserves with the Federal Reserve.  Finally, on Friday, April Average Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and the April Unemployment Rate.   

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ADT, AER, AGCO, ARLP, ABC, AME, BP, BR, CX, CQP, LNG, CIGI, CEIX, CEQP, CMI, DORM, DD, ETN, ECL, EPD, ESAB, EXPD, FELE, IT, GVA, GPK, HWM, HSBC, IDXX, IHRT, ITW, INCY, NSIT, LDOS, MDC, MPC, MAR, TAP, MLPX, MD, PFE, PEG, QSR, SEE, SUN, SYY, TROW, TRI, TRN, UBER, ZBRA, ZBH, AMD, AMCR, AFG, ANDE, ASH, AIZ, AXTA, BXC, BFAM, CZR, CRC, CWH, CHK, CLW, CLX, EIX, ET, ENLC, EQX, EXPI, F, THG, HLF, JKHYLFUS, LUMN, MTW, MTCH, MCY, MUSA, OKE, PGR, PRU, RNR, SPG, SBUX, SMCI, UNM, VOYA, WELL, WU, and YUM.  Then Wednesday, ADNT, ALGT, AVNT, AVA, GOLD, BDC, BGCP, EAT, BIP, BLDR, BG, CDW, CHEF, CLH, SID, CVS, XRAY, DBD, DRVN, EMR, EL, EEFT, EXC, FTS, GRMN, GNRC, GFF, HBI, HZNP, INGR, JHG, KHC, LPX, MUR, NI, PSN, PSX, RXO, SMG, SBGI, SITE, SR, SPR, STLA, TKR, TT, TRMB, UTHR, VRSK, YUM, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AMED, ANSS, HOUS, APA, ATO, AVT, EQH, BHE, BKH, CPE, CENT, CENTA, CDAY, CHRD, CIVI, COKE, CTSH, CODI, CTVA, CCRN, CW, NVST, EQIX, ETSY, FG, FLT, FNF, ULCC, GIL, GL, HST, IR, IOSP, MRO, VAC, MMS, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOS, NFG, OPAD, PARR, PDCE, PSA, QGEN, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, O, REZI, SIGI, SEDG, RUN, TWI, TTEC, TTMI, UGI, VSTO, WERN, WES, WMB, XPO, YELL, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from GOLF, ATI, AEP, BUD, APG, APTV, ARNC, ARW, BALL, BHC, BCE, BDX, BERY, BWA, BV, BRKR, CAH, CG, COMM, COP, CEG, DLX, DNB, EQNR, ES, RACE, FOCS, GTES, GPRE, DINO, HII, H, IBP, ICE, IRM, ITT, JLL, K, KTB, MMP, MLM, MDU, MRNA, MODV, NFE, NJR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OPCH, OGN, PZZA, PARA, PH, PTON, PENN, PCG, PNW, PLTK, PPL, PRMW, PRVA, PWR, RCM, REGN, RCL, SABR, SBH, SRE, SHEL, FOUR, SWK, STWD, TRGP, TFX, TU, BLD, UPBD, VNT, W, WLK, WRK, XYL, ZTS, ATSG, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BGS, BECN, BIO, SQ, BCC, BKNG, CNQ, CVNA, ED, CTRA, CWK, DASH, DKNG, DBX, ERJ, EOG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, GT, LYV, LYFT, MTZ, MATX, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NCR, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, CNXN, PBA, POST, KWR, RRX, RGA, RKT, SEM, SHOP, TDS, TXRH, TSE, TPC, and USM.  Finally, on Friday, AES, AMC, AMCX, AEE, AXL, AMRX, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CI, CNK, CNHI, D, ENB, EPAM, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GLP, GTN, HUN, IEP, JCI, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, NMRK, OMI, PBF, PAA, PAGP, QRTEA, WBD and BAP report.   

So far this morning, WEC, GPN, KBR, CHKP, NCLH, PK, SOFI, L, and LKNCY all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AMG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, CAN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GPN raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the market is looking to open just on the red side of flat. All three major indices are above their 3ema, T-line (8ema), and 17ema…all of which are also trending higher. SPY and DIA are dealing with a resistance level right near the Friday close. However, immediate resistance for QQQ is less than obvious. Over-extension is not yet a problem in any of the major indices. Moreover, with the Fed decision on its way Wednesday and a ton of earnings this week, it is quite possible that a good part of the next five days will be in “wait and see” mode. The Fedwatch tool tells us that confidence in a 0.25% rate hike by the Fed remains high at an 86+% probability. The other 14% probability is for “no hike.” Beyond next week, futures currently see little (28% on the largest probability month) chance of an additional increase this year and most are actually still betting on rate decreases sometime in the Fall. (That would be against what the Fed has repeatedly said, but that is what the Fed Fund Futures tell us.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday belonged to the Bulls as we opened higher (gapping up 0.57% in the SPY, up 0.37% in the DIA, and up 1.27% in the QQQ).  After that, a long, steady rally kicked in, carrying all three major indices to new highs all day long.  This action gave us gap-up, large white-bodied candles in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  In fact, all three indices printed their largest gains in months as all three major indices also crossed back above their T-line (8ema).  In fact, if you were a little loose with the definitions, you could even say the SPY and DIA printed Morning Star signals while the QQQ printed a Bull Kicker signal.  However, again this happened on less-than-average volume.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.27%) leading the way higher and Energy (+0.28%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.99%, DIA gained 1.58%, and QQQ gained 2.72%.  VXX fell 4.34% to 39.43 and T2122 popped out of the oversold territory and into the mid-range at 59.12.  10-year bond yields rose to 3.526 while Oil (WTI) gain 0.61% to $74.77 per barrel.  So, the cumulative effect of strong earnings, especially in the big tech names, overcame fear over regional banks and recession…at least for a day.      

In economic news, Preliminary Q1 GDP came in far short of expectations at +1.1% (compared to a forecast of +2.0% and a Q4 GDP of +2.6%).  In addition, the GDP Price Index (Preliminary) came in hotter than expected at +4.0% (versus a forecast of +3.7% and a Q4 value of +3.9%).  This tells us that the +1.1% GDP number is actually artificially high due to inflation.  If you are a “glass half empty” kind of person, you’d say that means we’re heading into stagflation…inflation is higher than expected and growth is smaller than expected.  However, personally, I choose to look at this as the Fed is going to see GDP growth slowing quickly and believe that they have done enough to ease inflation with the rest just being a matter of time.  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations at 230k (compared to a forecast of 248k and the prior week’s 246k reading).  Then after the close, the Fed reported its Balance Sheet had shrunk slightly from $8.593 trillion to $8.563 trillion.  The Reserve Balances of Banks with the Fed also shrunk from $3.165 trillion to $3.132 trillion.

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In stock news, LYFT said Thursday that it will lay off “about” 1,072 employees (26% of its workforce) in the first step of new CEO Risher’s cost-cutting program.  At midday, JNJ announced it will indemnify its newly-formed consumer health unit Kenvue of all costs and liability related to talc litigation in the US and Canada.  (As reported here in previous days, JNJ intends to IPO Kenvue while retaining vast majority ownership.)  Elsewhere, HMC announced it is investing about $3 billion in a partnership formed with another Japanese company to produce batteries for electric vehicles and homes.  In an unrelated announcement, HMC announced $2.7 million in funding for environmental and conservation education initiatives in the US.  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that META has merged its advertising, business messaging, and commerce departments into one division as part of the broader cost-cutting program.  There was no word on any related staff reductions yet.  Executives at large drugmakers told Reuters Thursday that they are searching for acquisition and ramping up research spending as their future profit pipelines are drying up (current drugs will face patent sundown).  The companies cited are MRK, AZN, ABBV, LLY, and BMY.  Finally, the USDA reported that flooding in the upper Midwest (due to record winter snowfalls that are now melting) will wreak havoc on the Mississippi River.  This will halt barge traffic for weeks to come.  (60% of US grain exports and a similar percentage of US fertilizer shipments normally use that waterway in their supply chain.  This will cause shippers to find alternate, more costly transportation such as rail and trucking.

In stock legal and regulatory news, MA reported that it is under investigation by the US Dept. of Justice related to its practices on US debit cards and its competition against other payment networks for those accounts.  (V revealed a similar probe in January.)  Meanwhile, a US Appeals Court ruled in favor of META, rejecting the appeal of states Attorneys General who had sought to revive an antitrust case against the social media giant.  The court stated the reason for the ruling was that the states had waited too long to file suit.  Finally, when pushed on the matter of FRC, both the White House and Treasury Sec. Yellen told reporters that they, the FDIC, Fed, and state bank regulators in several states are keeping a close eye on the bank’s finances.  Even after repeated questions, both the White House Press Sec. and Treasury Sec. Yellen did not offer an opinion on whether FRC depositors of amounts greater than $250,000 should be covered in the event of a bank run.  However, they did say they have a track record of acting swiftly and decisively on such matters.

After the close, AMZN, HTHIY, MDLZ, X, WY, MHK, RSG, AJG, SKX, CC, GFL, RMD, ATR, SKYW, ALSN, DXCM, PINS, ACA, BZH, PEAK, MTX, EHC, ERIE, and AEM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, TMUS, INT, HIG, AMGN, EMN, LPLA, HUBG, CINF, DLR, SM, and SNAP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, INTC, DNZOY, COF, GILD, LHX, PFG, FE, ATVI, SSNC, COLM, SAM, SGEN, and SSB all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, OLN, CSL, and FLSR missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MDLZ, SKX, ATR, and ALSN all raised their forward guidance.  However, INTC and HUBG both lowered their forward guidance.  Finally, it is worth noting that INTC reported the largest quarterly loss in company history.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Japan (+1.40%), Shanghai (+1.14%), Taiwan (+1.09%), and Shenzhen (+1.09%) led the region higher.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly in the red in late-morning trade.  The CAC (-0.62%), DAX (-0.19%), and FTSE (-0.22%) are leading the region modestly lower going into lunch.  In the US, as of 6:45 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day. The DIA implies a -0.29% open, the SPY is implying a -0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.26% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down to 3.481% as money seeks safe harbor and Oil (WTI) is up just less than four-tenths of a percent to $75.02/barrel in very early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Q1 Employment Cost Index, March PCE Price Index, and March Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AON, ARCB, ARES, AVTR, BLMN, CCJ, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CL, DAN, XOM, FMX, GNTX, IMO, JKS, LAZ, LYB, NYCB, NWL, NHYDY, NVT, POR, SAIA, and TRP before the open.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close.   

So far this morning, XOM, CVX, SONY, MBGAF (Daimler), KMTUY (Komatsu), ELUXY (Electrolux), CRI, BBVA, CL, TRP, BLMN, POR, and NVT all reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LYB, GTLS, and CCJ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AON, NWL, ARES, CHTR, and APELY beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ARCB and LAZ missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the large caps are going back to test their T-lines (8ema) as support early this morning. If the Bulls are going to follow through on Thursday’s strong candles, they’ll need to work for it after AMZN reported a blowout quarter but then put a damper on the party by warning about cloud services growth. That combined with INTC getting slaughtered (worst quarterly loss ever) has the big tech names (long the market leaders) feeling a little blu (make that red) this morning. However, that is tempered a bit by yet another record quarterly profit from XOM. Over-extension is not a problem based on either the T-line or the T2122 indicator. Interestingly, the Fedwatch tool tells us that confidence in a 0.25% rate hike by the Fed next week has resurged since yesterday morning. We are now back up to an 85% probability of that, with the other 15% probability being “no hike.” Beyond next week, markets see very little (21%) chance of an additional increase this year and most are actually betting on rate decreases sometime in the Fall. (That would be against what the Fed has repeatedly said, but that is what the Fed Fund Futures tell us.) Right now, the Bulls have work to do (resistance to overcome) but the ball is in their court. Finally, don’t forget it’s Friday. Get your account ready for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service