Tuesday gave us Bull trap as markets opened higher.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, DIA gapped up 0.41%, and QQQ gapped up 0.24%.  However, that was it for the Bulls as all three major index ETFs sold of the rest of the day.  SPY and QQQ sold off sharpest for an hour before chopping sideways with a slight bearish trend until mid-afternoon when the second leg down took over for the last hour, ending on a 15-minute bounce.  In contrast, DIA sold off steadily on a more modest slope, but again, ended the day on a 15-minute bounce.  This action gave us large-body, small-wick, black-bodied candles in all three.  QQQ printed a Bearish Engulfing signal that would also have been an Evening Star, if had occurred at the top of a trend.  SPY did the same, but was engulfing a black Doji.  All three started the day above their T-line (8ema) and crossed back below as SPY and QQQ failed their downtrend lines and DIA barely passed that test from above.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Technology (-1.77%) was way out in front (by 0.58%) leading the other losers lower.  On the other side, Energy (+1.16%) was held up far better than any other sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 1.13%, DIA lost 0.42%, and QQQ lost 1.78%. VXX popped 5.72% to close at 46.41 and T2122 dropped into its oversold territory, closing at 14.96.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to close up at 4.685% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.17% for the day to close at $74.42 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw the Bulls gap us higher and the Bears were having none of it.  They sold off markets all day, purportedly on strong economic data that raised the specter of a potential Fed switch back to tightening. This happened on above-average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as below-average volume in DIA.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included November Exports, which were up to $273.40 billion (compared to an October $265.70 billion) and Nov. Imports, which were also higher, at $351.60 billion (versus October’s $339.60 billion reading).  This gave us a November Trade Balance of -$78.20 billion which was just on the better side of a -$78.30 forecast but worse than October’s -$73.60 billion value.  Later, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI came in stronger than expected at 54.1 (compared to a forecast of 53.4 and a November reading of 52.1).  At the same time, the December ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was down slightly, as predicted, to 51.4 (versus a 51.4 forecast and a 52.1 November reading).  On the cost side, the Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index was much higher at 64.4 (versus a 57.5 forecast and November 58.2 value).  At the same time, November JOLTS Job Openings were also up significantly to 8.098 million (as compared to a 7.730 million forecast and October’s 7.839 million number).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a much larger drawdown than anticipated at -4.022 million barrels (versus a -0.250 million barrels forecast and a prior week 1.442-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he expects the FOMC to be more cautious on rate cuts as inflation is likely to stay on a bumpy path toward the 2% target.  He went on to say, “I think that will call for our policy approach to be more cautious—because we don’t want to overreact to any one data point in an environment where things may bounce around considerably.”  Bostic continued, “I would want to make sure—for sure—that inflation gets to 2 percent, which means we may have to keep our policy rate higher longer than people might expect, or we may have to be more deliberate in the pacing of reducing our policy.”

After the close, AIR and CALM both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Singapore (+1.54%) and South Korea (+1.16%) leading the gainers while Taiwan (-1.03%) and Malaysia (-0.92%) paced the losses.  In Europe, markets are on the red side with 12 of 14 bourses below break-even at midday.  The CAC (-0.92%), DAX (-0.15%), and FTSE (-0.35%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are spiking again to 4.73% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $74.60 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include ADP December Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), December FOMC Minutes (2 p.m.), and Nov. Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller (8:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to AYI, ACI, HELE, MSM, RDUS, and UNF. Then after the market close, JEF and PSMT report. 

So far this morning, ACI, HELE, and MSM have all reported beats on both revenue and earnings. At the same time, AYI missed on revenue while beating on earnings. UNF does not report until 8 a.m.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we have a National Holiday for President Carter’s funeral.  (However, Fed members Harker and Bowman are still on the schedule to speak as well as the release of the Fed Balance Sheet.  I would not be surprised if those were not moved.)  Finally, on Friday, we get Dec. Average Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Participation Rate, Dec. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from KBH.  Finally, on Friday, STZ, DAL, SNX, WBA, and WDFC report.

With that background, it looks like the market is undecided but leaning bearish now in the premarket.  All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the early session and all three rallied from there to briefly retest their T-line (8ema) from below).  However, all three then turned to the bearish side and are back below Tuesday’s close and retesting Tuesday’s low at this point.  That being the case, the short-term trend is bearish. If we look further out, all three are below their downtrend lines, meaning the mid-term trend is also bearish.  However, in the long-term, looking at higher-timeframe charts, the market remains in a strong bull trend.  In terms of extension, none of the three are too far extended from their T-line.  However, T2122 sits in the top half of its oversold area.   So, the market has room to run either direction, but the Bulls have more slack to work with today.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the red with AMD (-2.73%) being the worst off by more than 1.25%.  On the other side, NVDA (+0.60%) is by far the strongest of that group.   For a second straight day, NVDA leads in dollar-volume traded by about 20% over TSLA (which itself has traded five times as much as the next most liquid stock).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the week on a positive note, but ended the day less positive than they started.  SPY gapped up 0.74%, DIA gapped up “just” 0.40%, and QQQ gapped up 1.04%.  From there, all three major index ETFs rallied into midday, but then the selling took over.  QQQ rallied until 11:30 a.m. selling steadily and crossing back into the top of its gap by 1:50 pm. and reversed by 3 p.m. to close just above its open.  Meanwhile, SPY began its own selling at 11:45 a.m. and sold steadily back down into the gap by the close.  At the same time, DIA kept its rally going until noon, but rolled over harder selling back down across the gap by 3 p.m. and closed just below Friday’s close.  This action gave us gap-up indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY retested its downtrend and failed the test, printing a black-body Spinning Top with larger upper wick. DIA gapped up through its downtrend, printing a larger-body, black, Spinning Top that retested its 8ema and failed that test, but stayed above the downtrend line. Finally, QQQ gave us a gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top / Doji type candle that tested its downtrend and closed right at that level.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were green as Technology (+1.65%) was way, way out in front (by 1.2%) leading the other gainers higher.  On the other side, Utilities (-0.69%) and Communication Services (-0.67%) were the laggards.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.58%, DIA lost 0.01%, and QQQ gained 1.15%.  VXX fell 0.45% to close at 43.90 and T2122 dropped back to the bottom of its mid-range, closing at 23.44.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields continue their post-election rally to close up at 4.618% while Oil (WTI) fell two-thirds of a percent for the day to close at $73.49 per barrel.  So, Monday saw the Bulls gap us higher and rally all morning.  However, the sentiment changed midday and the afternoon was a steady selloff.  As was the case on Friday, this happened on average volume in the QQQ, as well as below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included December S&P Global Services PMI, which came in higher but below expectation at 56.8 (compared to a 58.5 forecast and a November 56.1 reading).  At the same time, December S&P Global Composite PMI was in the same situation, higher but below expectation at 55.4 (versus a 56.6 forecast but above November’s 54.9 number).  Later, November Factory Orders were worse than expected at -0.4% (compared to a -0.3% forecast and October’s +0.5% value).

In Fed news, on Monday, Fed Governor Cook joined the chorus of FOMC members who now say the group can be cautious.  She said, “the labor market has been somewhat more resilient, while inflation has been stickier than I assumed (it would be)” … “Thus, I think we can afford to proceed more cautiously with further cuts.” Cook went on, “Over time, I still think it will likely be appropriate to move the policy rate toward a more neutral stance. (However, cuts to date) have notably reduced the restrictiveness of monetary policy and all along, I envisioned moving more quickly in the early stages of our easing campaign and then easing more gradually as the policy rate came closer to neutral.”  Later, in yet another pre-emptive surrender to the coming Trump Administration, Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Barr announced his decision to resign that post on February 28, 2025. (It should be noted Barr intends to remain as a Fed Governor through Feb. of 2026.)  This paves the way for the incoming President to appoint a much more bank-friendly “supervisor.” However, unless Trump is able to remove a sitting Fed Governor, he would have to appoint that person from among the other six existing Fed Governors. 

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board (remember that China is closed for holidays).  Japan (+1.97%) led the region higher Tuesday.  In Europe, we also see mostly green with just four of the 14 bourses showing red at midday.  The CAC (+0.66%), DAX (+0.32%), and FTSE (-0.30%) are typical and lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed flat open to start the day.  DIA implies a +0.11% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, but QQQ implies a -0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields continue to jump, now at 4.642% and Oil (WTI) is up eight-tenths of a percent to $74.15 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday include November Exports, Nov. Imports, and November Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and Dec. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, as well as the Nov. JOLTS Job Openings (all at 10 a.m.).  Then after the close, we get the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report at 4:30 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to Tuesday we hear from RPM.  Then after the market close, AIR reports.

So far this morning, RPM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get ADP December Nonfarm Employment Change, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, December FOMC Minutes, and Nov. Consumer Credit.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.  On Thursday, we have a National Holiday for President Carter’s funeral.  (However, Fed members Harker and Bowman are still on the schedule to speak as well as the release of the Fed Balance Sheet.  I would not be surprised if those were not moved.)  Finally, on Friday, we get Dec. Average Hourly Earnings, Dec. Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Dec. Participation Rate, Dec. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AYI, ACI, HELE, MSM, RDUS, UNF, JEF, and PSMT report.  On Thursday, we hear from KBH.  Finally, on Friday, STZ, DAL, SNX, WBA, and WDFC report.

With that background, it looks like the market is undecided so far in the premarket with all three major index ETFs giving us small-body (indecisive) candles that sit not too far from Monday’s close.  DIA is retesting its T-line (8ema) and at this point is just above. This puts all three above their T-line at the moment and, that being the case, the short-term trend is bullish. Looking further out, QQQ is again testing its downtrend line that stretches back to the all-time high in December.  SPY is also not far below a retest of its own downtrend line.  Meanwhile, DIA has broken through its own downtrend just by moving sideways. In the long-term, looking at higher-timeframe charts, the market remains in a strong bull trend.  In terms of extension, none of the three are extended from their T-line (8ema) based on the early session.  Meanwhile, T2122 sits just outside of its oversold territory.  So, the market has room to run either direction, but the Bulls have more slack to work with today.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, they are split 50/50 with NVDA (+2.48%) way out front leading gainers while TLSA (-1.79%) is far behind pacing the losses.  Reverting back to the pre-election norm, NVDA leads in dollar-volume traded by about 1.5 times over TSLA (which itself has traded five times as much as the next most liquid stock).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw a modest rebound in the market.  SPY gapped up 0.51%, DIA gapped up 0.47%, and QQQ gapped up 0.59%.  From there all three major index ETFs gave us sideways chop along their opening level for the first 60 minutes.  However, after 10:30 a.m., markets ground slowly, but steadily, higher into 2:45 pm.  At that point, we saw modest profit-taking that led to a slight drift lower into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ both printed a gap-up, large body, white candle that crossed above their respective T-lines (8ema) while having small wicks on both ends.  DIA was less decisive, printing a gap-up, white Spinning Top candles that was also a Bullish Harami which retested, but failed to cross its own T-line.  None of the three retested their downtrends that stretch back to the all-time highs they reached in December.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were green as Technology (+1.86%) was more than half a percent in the lead, guiding the others higher.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-0.21%) was the only sector in the red and lagged other sectors by more than a third of a percent.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained 0.79%, and QQQ gained 1.64%.  VXX fell 5.85% to close at 44.10 and T2122 climbed out of its oversold territory to the center of its mid-range, closing at 46/15.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields continue their post-election rally to close up at 4.602% while Oil (WTI) rallied on the day to close at $73.96 per barrel.  So, Friday saw the Bulls rally as we headed into the weekend.  A gap higher and slow, steady rally took up most of the open outcry session.  This happened on average volume in the QQQ, as well as below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.

The major economic news scheduled Friday was limited to the December ISM Mfg. report.  The December ISM Manufacturing Employment Index was down to 45.3 (compared to a 48.0 forecast and a November 48.1 reading).  On the headline number, December ISM Mfg. PMI came in higher at 49.3 (versus a 48.2 forecast and the Nov. 48.4 value).  On the price side, the December ISM Mfg. Price Index was up to 52.5 (compared to a 51.5 forecast and November’s 50.3 number). 

In Fed news, on Friday, Richmond Fed President Barkin said he expects the US economy to grow in 2025 despite the risks and uncertainties posed by the incoming administration (and Trump’s previous threats of across-the-board tariffs and massive deportations).  However, Barkin did admit it is hard to predict the economic impact of Trump policies until we see what he actually does (as opposed to what he promised or threatened).  Barkin said, “I think there is more upside risk than downside risk (on inflation) given the economy’s continued strength and the possibility of renewed wage and other price pressures.”  He continued, “I put myself in the camp of wanting to stay restrictive for longer as opposed to the other school, which would be that we’re done (fighting inflation).”  Later, Fed Governor Kugler also said there was much uncertainty due to the change in administration.  She told CNBC that uncertainty has led to there being “a view that we can take our time, to slow down and be more gradual while watching the data (to see what actually shakes out from new fiscal policies).” However, she said, “(if the resilient jobs market does lose steam) we would be ready to act in a different direction.” … “We’re always responding (to the economy) and seeing what is happening in front of us.” 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  India (-1.62%) and Japan (-1.47%) were by far the biggest loser in the region while Taiwan (+2.79%) and South Korea (+1.91%) were far and away the biggest gainers.  In Europe, we see a much greener picture with 12 of the 14 bourses above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+2.16%), DAX (+1.35%), and lagging FTSE (+0.13%) lead the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher.  The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.84% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are “down” to 4.596% while Oil (WTI) is up 0.80% to $74.55 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to the December Federal Budget Balance at 2 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to CMC.  There are no reports scheduled for after the market close.

So far this morning, CMC beat on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get December Core PPI and Dec. PPI.  Then Wednesday, December Core CPI, December CPI, and NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index are reported.  On Thursday, we get December Core Retail Sales, Dec. Retila Sales, Dec. Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Dec. Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, Dec. Export Price index, Dec. Import Price Index, Nov. Business Inventories, and Nov. Retail Inventories.  Finally, on Friday, we get Preliminary Dec. Building Permits, Dec. Housing Starts, Dec. Industrial Production, and Nov. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from RPM and AIR.  Then Wednesday, AYI, ACI, HELE, MSM, RDUS, UNF, JEF, and PSMT report.  On Thursday, we hear from KBH.  Finally, on Friday, STZ, DAL, SNX, WBA, and WDFC report.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are running this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the premarket and have put in white-body candles since then. SPY and QQQ both are giving us large-body, small-wick white candles. However, DIA is more uncertain giving us a white Spinning Top but has at least crossed back above its T-line in the early session.  That being the case, the short-term trend is bullish. Looking further out, the premarket moves are testing the downtrend lines in the DIA and QQQ, but all three remain in a mid-term downtrend.  In the long-term, looking at higher-timeframe charts, the market remains in a strong bull trend.  In terms of extension, none of the three are extended from their T-line (8ema) based on the early session.  Meanwhile, T2122 sits in the center of its mid-range. So, the market has room to run either direction, but the Bulls have ground they want to recapture and a little momentum on their side. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in the green at this point of the morning. AMD (+2.88%) and NVDA (+2.61%) are out front leading the tech rally.  On the other end, NFLX (+0.02%%) is the laggard.  Once again, TSLA (+2.30%) is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded but only by 20% above NVDA in terms of dollars traded. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls tried to rebound Thursday…they tried.  SPY gapped up 0.87%, DIA gapped up 0.82%, and QQQ gapped up 0.88%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off.  SPY and DIA fell two-thirds of the way back across their gaps by 10:40 a.m. while QQQ completely recrossed its gap during the same time.  From there, SPY and DIA chopped up and down in their gaps all day.  (Well, SPY fell just below its gap the last few minutes of the day.)  Meanwhile, QQQ chopped along the bottom of its gap and then drove South the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us black candles with small upper wicks in all three major index ETFs.  All three remain below their T-line (8ema) while SPY retested its 50sma (and failed the test) from below. Also, while DIA printed an 11^th-straight black candle, it did break the streak of down candles at 10.  This all happened on just-above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Basic Materials (-0.94%) was way out front leading the way lower.  On the other side, Utilities (+0.79%) held up far better than any of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.03%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.45%. VXX spiked another 8.55% to close at 56.14 and T2122 climbed very slightly but remains at the bottom of its oversold territory to close at 0.93. On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to close down to 4.572% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.03% to close at $69.85 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw Bulls try to bounce back at the open.  However, it was a short-lived attempt as all three major index ETFs almost immediately fell back into the gap and ended the day very near their lows.

The major economic news scheduled Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in lower than expected at 220k (compared to a 229k forecast and well down from the prior week’s 242k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down to 1,874k (versus the 1,890k forecast and 1,879k prior week value).  At the same time, the Q3 Core PCE Price Index was down to 2.20% (still higher than the 2.10% forecast but well-down from Q2’s 2.80% reading).  Meanwhile, the Q3 GDP (Quarter-on-Quarter) was up to 3.1% (compared to a 2.8% forecast and even up from Q2’s 3.0% value).  On the price side, the Q3 GDP Price Index was down to 1.9% (in-line with the 1.9% forecast but far down from Q2’s 2.5% reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was down to -16.4 (versus a +2.9 forecast and the November -5.5 value).  In terms of employment, the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was down to 6.6 (compared to November’s 8.6 reading).  Later, Nov. Existing Home Sales were higher than anticipated at 4.15 million (versus a 4.09 million forecast and well up from October’s 3.96 million number).  At the same time, the Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index was up sharply to +0.3% (compared to a -0.1% forecast and up sharply from October’s -0.4% value).  At the close, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions were down to $152.3 billion (versus September’s $216.1 billion).  Then after the close, Fed’s Balance Sheet was down $8 billion on the week from $6.897 trillion to $6.889 trillion. 

After the close, NKE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, BB, FDX and AVO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  (AVO missed massively on revenue and beat massively on earnings.)  However, SCHL missed on both the opt and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly all red.  Only New Zealand (+1.18%) bucked the trend as the other 11 exchanges were under water.  Taiwan (-1.84%), India (-1.52%), and Australia (-1.24%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a clean sweep by the Bears at midday.  The CAC (-1.22%), DAX (-1.50%), and FTSE (-0.87%) lead that region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 87:20 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower as Republicans killed the negotiated CR deal on Elon Musk (and later Trump’s) order.  Then they flat out failed to produce any alternative.  So, the US government is set to shutdown tonight.  (Asia tanked on that news and Europe followed.  So, the best guess is that is why we are headed lower to start the day as well.)  The DIA implies a -0.54% open, the SPY is implying a -0.98% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.56% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are “down” to 4.536% and Oil (WTI) is off one percent to $68.70 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, and Nov. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CCL and WGO.  Then, after the market, there are no reports scheduled. Also, don’t forget that today is triple witching, with stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures all expiring.

So far this morning, WGO missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like more blood in the streets is in order for Friday.  All three major index ETFs gapped significantly lower to start the premarket.  All three have also followed-through with black-bodied candles with small upper wicks since that start.  That being the case, the short-term trend is very, very bearish. Looking further out, all three have now broken their daily mid-term uptrend lines, but have not yet formed bearish trends.  In the long-term, looking at higher-timeframe charts, this is nothing but a blip in a strong bull trend.  In terms of extension, all three are very extended below their T-line (8ema) based on the early session.  Meanwhile, T2122 is also deep in its oversold territory.  (Less than a point from that indicator’s theoretical oversold limit.) So, the Bulls certainly have reversion to the mean on their side.  However, the Bears have all the momentum and the news cycle in their corner.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in significant red numbers at this point of the morning. TSLA (-4.99%) is way out front leading the tech selloff.  On the other end, AAPL (-1.13%) and MSFT (-1.15%) are holding up best.  Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 3 times over NVDA (with the next closest 5 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA).  Finally, remember its Friday…payday…and time to prepare for the weekend news cycles. Also, be aware of triple witching activity in the afternoon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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