Markets were basically undecided on Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.18%, QQQ gapped up 0.22%, and DIA opened up just 0.06% higher.  At that point, all three major index ETFs wobbled around on that opening level.  Then starting at about 11:15 a.m., the SPY and QQQ began (followed at noon by the DIA) a steady selloff that lasted until 2:15 p.m.  From there, all three rallied to recross the morning gap and end in bullish territory.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles in all three of the index ETFs.  The SPY and DIA printed Doji-type candles while the QQQ printed a Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs remain stretched above their T-line (8ema) and stayed above their 50sma (in the DIA also above the 200sma which is just below its 50sma).  This happened on far-below-average volume in all three of those ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were again in the red with Energy (-1.13%) leading the way lower while only Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) and Technology (+0.02%) were able to hang on to green territory (barely at that).  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.22%, DIA gained 0.12%, and QQQ gained 0.41%.  The VXX fell another 3.31% to close at 20.48 and T2122 dropped out of the over-bought territory and back into the mid-range at 67.37.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.659% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to close at $80.88 per barrel.  So, Monday gave us a sixth-straight day of gain in the SPY and DIA and the seventh in the QQQ.  However, this happened on very indecisive candles and all three of the major index ETFs remain very stretched.

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, there were some Fed speakers.  Fed Governor Cook told a Duke University event the rising short-term bond yields are not tied to the Fed’s policy plans.  She also said, “I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates.”  She went on to imply that she is in the “no more hikes” camp by saying “we hope that this will be restrictive enough such that we can return to our 2% target over time.”  However, on the other side, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he would prefer to err on the side of tightening too much rather than not enough.  Kashkari said, “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time.”  The interview quoted him as going on to say “I am not ready to say we are in a good place (yet)” (in terms of having a high enough Fed Funds rate).  Elsewhere, a Fed report released Monday said bank loan officers are reporting a slowing of the tightening of credit requirements as well as (or maybe due to) a weaker loan demand.  The report said 60% of banks cite moderately to substantially weaker loan demand in Q3 (up from 43% in Q2).

In stock news, on Monday, C announced that they are aiming for at least a 10% cut to its workforce as part of CEO Frasier’s restructuring.  (For reference, C has 240,000 employees at this point.  So, we are talking about something like 24,000 layoffs.)  Later, CHE announced its board had approved a $300 million increase in its share buyback plan.  At the same time, the CEO of EQT said the US is facing an imminent energy crisis solely due to public resistance to building new pipeline capacity.  He went on to say that natural gas pipeline construction fell to a record low in 2022 and capacity is down almost 900 million cubic feet per day versus the 28 billion cu.ft./day in 2017.  Later, HGV announced that it had acquired BVH for $1.5 billion (including debt).  BVH shares shot almost 107% higher on the news.  Elsewhere, AIG announced it will raise funds by issuing a 50-million share secondary offering of CRBG.  (The underwriters of the secondary, GS, and JPM will have the option to buy an additional 7.5 million shares on top of the 50 million.)  In related news, AIG also initiated a tender offer to rebuy $1 billion worth of its outstanding debt securities.  At the same time, GM announced (that strikes) it had reversed a previous decision and rehired the 1,245 Brazilian employees it had laid off at the Sao Paulo S-10 pickup and Trailblazer engine plant.  Later, BCSF announced it was buying consulting firm Guidehouse from private Veritas Capital for $5.3 billion.  Meanwhile, WELL announced plans to offer $3 billion worth of common stock to fund property acquisitions.  At the same time, CPG announced plans to acquire HHRS for $15.33 per share.  Finally, on Monday night CNBC reported that the GM Cruise robotaxis requires human assistance every four to five miles.  The report said GM maintains one “driver assistant” for every 15-20 robotaxis to get the car past any tricky driving.  The report said assistants provide “wayfinding data” to the onboard computer and do not take over to remotely drive the vehicle.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a lawsuit against WFC and Navy Federal Credit Union has moved to federal mediation.  The lawsuit alleges the financial institutions should have prevented the customer from transferring $3.6 million from his savings to a foreign entity (scam) because the customer had suffered a stroke and was diminished enough that his account had been flagged by Adult Protective Services. Later, MULN announced that it had been given EPA certification for its Class 1 EV cargo vans.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Ag reported that TSN is recalling 30,000 pounds of fully cooked dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets after USDA inspectors found small pieces of metal in samples of the product.  Later, the FAA announced it would hold an additional round of runway safety meetings at 16 more airports in the coming weeks after recent troubling close-call incidents.  (LUV, FDX, and most of the major airlines as well as airport officials are required to attend.)  At the same time, TM confirmed the NHTSA report that it is recalling 1.9 million RAV4 SUVs over a defect that could cause a fire.  Later, NKE filed suit against SKX and private New Balance over alleged patent infringement.  Then after the close, GE agreed to pay $9.4 million to settle US federal claims that it sold “uninspected” and “out of spec” parts to the US Army and Navy.  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a second major antitrust case, this one filed by Epic Games and related to Google Play Store monopoly over Android app distribution.  After the close, a federal judge pared back a US government lawsuit against drug distributor COR (formerly ABC) for its part in the opioid epidemic.  (The Dept. of Justice alleges COR changed its order monitoring policies, dramatically reducing oversight of opioid orders.)  Finally, the FTC has sent requests to TPR and CPRI for more information about the planned $8.5 billion purchase of CPRI by TPR.

After the close Monday, ARKO, CNO, COHR, CXW, FANG, FN, FSK, IFF, JELD, NXPI, PARR, O, RNG, SVC, TRIP, UIS, and WMK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BKD and TDC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CBT, CE, CLOV, CTRA, GT, ICUI, RHP, STRL, and VRTX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ATSG, COMP, CRGY, and SANM missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CE and SANM both lowered their forward guidance.  At the same time, CXW, FN, RNG, and STRL raised their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Thailand (-0.18%) in the red.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+5.66% not a typo, huge rally after a ban on short-selling), Japan (+2.37%), Shenzhen (+2.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.71%) led a huge rally.  In Europe, bourses are more mixed with an even split of green and red at midday.  With that said, the big boys of Europe are red with the CAC (-0.36%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.05%) leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.595% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.42% to $81.65 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes September Imports, Sept. Exports, and Sept. Trade Balance (all three at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Waller (10 a.m.) and Williams (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, ADV, APD, GBTG, AMRX, BCO, CG, CLVT, CNHI, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, EMR, EVRG, FIS, GEN, GEO, GFS, INGR, KKR, LCII, MLCO, PRGO, RXO, TAC, UBER, VTNR, VST, WAT, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AMRK, AKAM, AEL, ANDE, BHF, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, CAPL, DAR, DVA, DVN, EBAY, EC, PLUS, EXR, FNF, GILD, GO, GXO, IAC, IOSP, JKHY, JHX, KD, MASI, DOOR, MOS, MRC, OXY, OVV, PAAS, PR, PRI, PRIM, RXT, RIVN, HOOD, SNBR, STE, TKO, TOST, and VTRS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories and hear from Fed Chair Powell as well as Fed member Williams again.  On Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, KLG, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS.  On Thursday, AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, GS said Monday that, in their estimation, the current high yield of Treasury bonds is the equivalent of four quarter-point Fed rate hikes.  This reduces the need for additional FOMC rate hikes (again, by their estimate).  Elsewhere, OpenAI announced the next version of its ChatGPT AI app. At the same time, Natural Gas prices fell 7% Monday after the EIA reported record output and updated its Winter forecast to be milder. Finally, in late-breaking news, WE filed for bankruptcy as had been expected for some time.

So far this morning, AHCO, AMRX, BCO, CLVT, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, FOR, GBTG, GEO, GFS, KKR, RXO, SGRY, TAC, VTNR, AND ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, APD, CG, EVRG, INGR, PRGO, AND WAT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UBER beat on revenue while missing on the earnings lines.  Unfortunately, ADV, CNHI, EMR, LCII, VST, and FIS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CNHI and SGRY lowered their forward guidance.  However, DDOG, EMR, and VST raised their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market is again undecided early in the day. The Premarket started lower in all three major index ETFs. From that point, all three that printed small, indecisive, and mixed-color dandles during the early session. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have the control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three remain a bit stretched from their T-line but the T2122 indicator has dropped back into its mid-range. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market remains in need of a pause or pullback to relieve extension. (However, as always, remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls were in charge again all day Friday with the SPY gapping 0.54% higher, the DIA gapping up 0.50%, and the QQQ gapping up a smaller 0.36%.  From there, all three of the major index ETFs put in a long slow rally that meandered its way to the highs of the day at 3:05 p.m. only to take modest profits the last hour of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ had no lower wick but did have upper wicks from the late afternoon profit-taking.  However, DIA printed a gap-up Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs are now extended above the T-line (8ema) and are now sitting at or near a resistance level.  DIA also crossed up through both the 50sma and 200sma (which are squeezed), while the QQQ crossed up through its own 50sma and SPY just crossed up through its 50sma.  This all happened on average volume in the DIA and the QQQ and slightly lower-than-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were again in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.46%) way out front leading the way higher and Energy (-0.69%) lagging far behind (by almost 1.5%) the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.65%, and QQQ gained 1.17%.  The VXX fell another 2.35% to close at 21.18 and T2122 climbed even further into its overbought territory at 96.33.  10-year bond yields dropped again to end the day at 4.572% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 2% to close at $80.78 per barrel.  So, just like every day last week, on Friday the markets opened higher and continued North.   For the week, SPY gained 5.85%, DIA gained 5.06%, and QQQ gained 6.49% on 5-straight higher closes in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news reported Friday, October Average hourly Earnings came in lower but above expectations at 4.1% (year-on-year) compared to a September value of +4.3% and a forecast of +4.0%.  On a month-on-month basis, this was lower than expected at +0.2% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and a September reading of +0.3%).  At the same time, October Nonfarm Payrolls increased but also less than predicted at +150k (compared to a forecast of +180k and down tremendously from the September value of +297k).  October Private Nonfarm Payrolls also were up but far less than was anticipated at +99k (versus a forecast of +158k and September’s +246k).  At the same time, the October Participation Rate fell to 62.7% (compared to a forecast and prior reading that were both 62.8%).  Together, this led to a tick higher in the October Unemployment Rate to 3.9% (versus the forecast and September value of 3.8%). Later the October S&P Global Services PMI came in lower than expected at 50.6 (compared to a forecast of 50.9 but up from September’s 50.1).  The Oct. S&P Global Composite PMI then was also a bit lower at 50.7 (versus a forecast of 51.0 but still up from a September reading of 50.2).  Later, the October ISM Non-Mfg. PMI came in soft but still indicated expansion at 51.8 (compared to a forecast of 53.0 and a September value of 53.6).  Lastly, the October ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index were hotter than planned at 58.6 (versus the forecast of 56.6 but still down slightly from the September reading of 58.9).

In stock news, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday that NFLX is considering entry into the live-sport streaming by buying the rights to Premier Boxing.  AMZN is already bidding on that series of events after PARA announced it would be exiting the boxing broadcasting arena at the end of 2023.  Later, BMWYY (BMW) released a strong Q4 sales forecast saying that its order book is filled into even the first few months of 2024.  The luxury car company said it had no interest in or need for price cuts the way several of its competitors (such as TSLA in the electric arena) have engaged.  At the same time, JLL announced it has expanded its borrowing limit to $3.3 billion and pushed out the maturity of its debt to November 2028 (from April 2026).  This was done to shore up the real estate giant’s balance sheet.  Later, reports surfaced that HLI is in talks to acquire private investment firm Triago.  Elsewhere, the union representing pilots told Reuters that contract negotiations with FDX are now scheduled to restart Monday. The negotiations will be under new union leadership after the union rejected a tentative deal (for a 30% pay increase) reached by the company and prior union leadership.  At the same time, LGF.A and LGF.B subsidiary Starz announced restructuring including laying offs 10% of its staff and exiting operations in the UK and Australia.  Later, LCID announced price cuts on its Air luxury electric sedans by 7.9% – 9.1%.  In the same industry (but other end of the price range) Chinese EV-maker NIO announced it will cut 10% of its workforce and may divest non-core branches across China.  At the same time, S&P and MCO both upgraded the credit rating of F after nearly 4-years of their bonds being rated as “junk.” At the close, KHC announced a major leadership shakeup with reshuffling happening at the beginning of fiscal year 2024. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the US Dept. of Transportation said that it agrees with a complaint made by JBLU (and co-signed by a US Airline Industry group) against the Netherlands and the EU.  (The Dutch government had denied JBLU 339 landing slot at Amsterdam Schiphol airport in order to east noise pollution.)  As a result, JBLU had asked the US to delay granting a landing license to German or KLM (French-Dutch) airlines at NY airports.  Later, ALK was sued by three passengers after an off-duty pilot traveling in the cockpit jump seat tried to crash a flight headed for San Francisco on Oct. 22.  The plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Portland, where the offender was arrested.  However, the suit claims the airline was at fault for allowing non-duty people to travel on the flight deck.  Later, BCS was sued by investors who claimed the company should have known of its former CEO’s close ties to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein (and that lack of control cost those investors money as the ties between Epstein and the former CEO came to light).  In late afternoon, Reuters reported that the US Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed to expand their oversight of non-bank asset managers and hedge funds which pose a systemic risk to the financial system.  (This is the reinstatement of oversight and reporting scrapped by the ex-President.)  Among those impacted will be BLK.  After the close Friday, Reuters reported that the FTC used a secret algorithm called “Project Nessie” to push up prices by punishing its own sellers who also sold via WMT’s e-commerce system.  At the same time, in an unexpected twist, the US Forest Service announced Friday that it wants to allow carbon capture and storage projects inside national forest lands.

After the close Friday, TSE reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Thailand (-0.18%) in the red.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+5.66% not a typo, huge rally after a ban on short-selling), Japan (+2.37%), Shenzhen (+2.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.71%) led a huge rally.  In Europe, bourses are more mixed with an even split of green and red at midday.  With that said, the big boys of Europe are red with the CAC (-0.36%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.05%) leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.595% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.42% to $81.65 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMG, AL, BNTX, BAM, DISH, SATS, ES, GOL, HGV, KNF, THS, and VVX.  Then, after the close, ATSG, ARKO, BKD, CBT, CE, CLOV, CNO, COMP, CTRA, CXW, CRGY, FANG, FN, GT, ICUI, IFF, ITUB, JELD, NXPI, PARR, O, RNG, RHP, SANM, SVC, STRL, TRIP, and VRTX report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, Sept. Imports, Sept. Exports, Sept. Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  We also hear from Fed members Waller and Williams.  Then Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories and hear from Fed Chair Powell as well as Fed member Williams again.  On Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, AHCO, ADV, APD, GBTG, AMRX, BCO, CG, CLVT, CNHI, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, EMR, EVRG, FIS, GEN, GEO, GFS, INGR, KKR, LCII, MLCO, PRGO, RXO, TAC, UBER, VTNR, VST, WAT, ZBH, AMRK, AKAM, AEL, ANDE, BHF, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, CAPL, DAR, DVA, DVN, EBAY, EC, PLUS, EXR, FNF, GILD, GO, GXO, IAC, IOSP, JKHY, JHX, KD, MASI, DOOR, MOS, MRC, OXY, OVV, PAAS, PR, PRI, PRIM, RXT, RIVN, HOOD, SNBR, STE, TKO, TOST, and VTRS report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, KLG, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS.  On Thursday, AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, major US banks including BAC, CCF, USB, TFC, and WFC all experienced disruptions in processing deposits Friday due to problems with Automated Clearing House (a major network for processing transactions).  Elsewhere, it has come out that as part of its deal with the UAW, GM has agreed to invest $13 billion in US facilities by April 2028.  Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s BRKB announced a huge blowout earnings that featured a 41% increase in operating earnings and a record amount of cash on hand of more than $157 billion.  (It is worth noting that Buffett is buying short-term Treasury bonds with his massive pile of cash.)  However, it was not all sunshine and rainbows for BRKB as the company announced a $24.1 billion loss on investments in Q3 (mostly on its massive AAPL stake).

In still other news, Elon Musk’s xAI company (not to be confused with his X platform, formerly Twitter) released its own AI tool named “Grok” over the weekend.  The late-to-the-party AI, was trained on data from X…so, it will have all the intelligence and correct answers Twitter has been known for over the last decade.  (That was a joke in case anyone actually thinks social media is accurate on average.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports the hedge funds made a terrible trade last week by taking the largest short position in Treasuries Futures since 2006.  The levered funds did this just before a weak US bond sale and weak jobs data led to a big bond rally.  Finally, the ex-president is scheduled to testify in the damages portion of the NY state trial meant to determine what he, his adult children, and his company must pay for their civil fraud conviction in NY state.  (The guilty verdict on the main count was reached summarily based on the mountain of evidence. The trial is not about guilt, which has been established, only about how many tens or hundreds of millions of dollars they are ordered to pay and what other penalties, like loss of business licenses, might be imposed.)

So far this morning, AMG, BRKB, KNF, and PHIN have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BNTX and THS reported misses on revenue while beating one earnings.  However, DISH, and ES missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BNTX and THS both also lowered their forward guidance.  (AL, BAM, GOL, HGV, and VVX all report closer to the opening bell.)

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market has not yet decided on what to do today. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher but had put in small, indecisive, and mixed-color candles in the early session since that higher open. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls are still in full control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three are a bit stretched from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deep in its over-bought territory. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market is in need of a pause or pullback just to relieve extension. (However, as always, remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

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Markets started the day higher Wednesday with SPY gapping up 0.23%, DIA gapping up 0.16%, and QQQ gapping up 0.21%. After that open, QQQ led the way immediately rallying while the SPY took 15 minutes before following and DIA actually recrossed its opening gap before following in the rally that continued until 11 a.m. for all three.  At that point, all three major index ETFs traded in a long sideways trough that lasted until the Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.  However, once Powell spoke the Bulls were off to the races again in a sharp rally that lasted until 3:40 p.m. only to be very slightly blunted by profit-taking the last 20 minutes.  This action gave us gap-up, large white candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.  All three major index ETFs crossed back above their T-line (8ema) with SPY now located just below its 200sma.  All of this happened on above-average volume in the DIA and QQQ and average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, all 10 sectors were again in the green with Utilities (+1.57%) way out front leading the way higher and Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.05%, DIA gained 0.67%, and QQQ gained 1.74%.  The VXX fell 4.35% to close at 22.43 and T2122 climbed again to the center of its mid-range at 52.09.  10-year bond yields dropped to end the day at 4.747% and Oil (WTI) fell to close at $80.90 per barrel.  So, it seems the Bulls liked the ADP precursor to the October Payrolls data and popped markets at the open and for the first part of the day.  Then we saw hand-wringing and waiting on the widely expected Fed decision.  However, when Fed Chair Powell told markets we were in a goldilocks scenario, the Bulls ran again only taking profits in the last minutes of the day.

The major economic news reported Wednesday included the October ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in lower than expected at 113k (compared to a 150k forecast but still higher than the September reading of 89k).  Later the S&P Global Mfg. PMI was reported in line with what was predicted at 50.0 (versus a forecast of 50.0 and slightly better than the September 49.8 value).  At the same time, the October ISM Mfg. PMI came in lower than anticipated at 46.7 (compared to a forecast of 49.0 and a September reading of 49.0).  October ISM Mfg. Employment was reported lower than expected at 46.8 (versus a forecast of 50.3 and well down from the September 51.2).  Meanwhile, Sept. JOLTs Job Opening remains stronger than predicted at 9.553 million (compared to a forecasted 9.250 million and even higher than the August value of 9.497 million).  Later EIA Crude Oil Inventories rose but by less than anticipated at +0.774 million barrels (versus a forecast of +1.261 million barrels and the prior week’s +1.371 million barrels number).  Then, as almost universally expected, the FOMC held the Fed Funds rate at 5.50%.

In his post-decision press conference, the key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell were that the US economy is strong, he is hesitant to advocate for a December rate hike, he is unwilling to commit to not hiking, and high treasury yields help but he was unwilling to say specifically how much they help.  In general, Powell implied that there is no hurry and things are going so well that we can wait and see. Powell said, “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.”  When asked if the Fed is done raising rates, he said, “We’re not confident at this time that we’ve reached such a stance.”  When pressed further about when the Fed will start cutting rates, he said “The question of rate cuts just doesn’t come up right now” adding “It’s fair to say the question we’re asking is should we hike more.”  When Powell was asked about whether rising bond yields are supplanting the need for additional hikes, the Chair said those yields would need to be substantially higher before they bear on specific hike decisions.  However, he added that higher Treasury yields “are showing through” to real-world borrowing costs (which helps discourage growth that is too strong) and “it remains to be seen” if persistently high yields could eliminate the need for more hikes down the road. 

In stock news, NIO announced its October deliveries of 16,074 vehicles (up 3% from September and up 60% from October 2022).  Competitor XPEV reported 20,002 cars sold (a whopping 31% increase versus September and a 292% increase over October 2022).  However, XPEV only delivered 8,741 cars, which while a company record was obviously far below demand.  LI (the other major Chinese EV competitor) delivered 40,422 cars in October (a 12% month-on-month increase and a 302% increase over Oct. 2022).  At the same time, NDAQ announced it had acquired Adenza from Thoma Bravo for $10.5 billion.  NDAQ said it expects Adenza to yield $80 million in cost-saving synergies and $100 million in long-term revenue increases.  Later, SCHW announced it had laid off 5% – 6% of its headcount (between 1,795 – 2,154 jobs).  By late morning, TM announced it is raising the wages and benefits of its US non-union workers in response to the UAW pay increases won from the Big 3 automakers. Later, Reuters reported that FUN and SIX are in merger talks.  After the close, DIS officially announced it is acquiring the remaining one-third stake in Hulu from CMCSA.  In the wide-expected deal, DIS will pay CMCSA $8.61 billion by December 1.  Also after the close, CLX said it expects to rebuild dwindling customer inventories by the end of Q4.  CLX has fallen way behind after an August cyberattack took its order fulfillment operation offline for more than a month starting in August.  Finally, late Wednesday evening, DAL announced it is laying off “some” corporate workers in order to cut costs.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, in the UK, a court ruled the British equivalent of a $2 billion class-action lawsuit against AAPL can proceed for allegedly hiding defective batteries by throttling performance in millions of iPhones.  In other European news, the EU announced a ban related to META’s handling of user data on FaceBook and Instagram.  The ban (which may be finalized as soon as next week) would require META to explicitly ask for and receive user permission before using any personal information to deliver targeted advertising.  This would be a huge blow to META, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, and other companies that sell targeted ads.  Later a US Court of Appeals judge ordered the SEC to “fix” what he called defects in its rule on share buybacks.  The rule (adopted in May) requires disclosure of share buyback data.  The decision was a significant win for corporate lobbyists who had argued for keeping such data undisclosed.  In late afternoon, the FDIC suspended the auction of assets of FBNC following the bank’s striking a deal with investors to pump $35 million into the delisted bank.  After the close, a (now former) GS investment banker was sentenced to three years in prison for passing tips on mergers GS was working on to accomplice traders.  Also after the close, the SEC announced it is investigating WFC related to conflicts of interest in its customer cash sweep choices.  At the same time, the Dept. of Energy warned NFE that if any of its Altamira floating LNG project was actually located onshore in Mexico, the company needs to reapply for a new export permit.  The project was expected to start shipping LNG this month. Elsewhere, the SEC filed charges SWI and its Chief Info. Security Officer alleging fraud and regulatory control violations related to the MOVEit cyberattack where Russian hackers compromised companies and Pentagon email addresses.  Finally, the NHTSA announced late Wednesday that TM is recalling 1.85 million RAV4 SUVs over fire risks related to replacement battery installation defects.

After the close, AFL, ABNB, ALL, ATUS, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, AVT, AXS, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CPE, CWH, CLX, COKE, CW, DASH, EA, ET, ETSY, EXAS, GFL, HST, IR, MTW, MRO, MCK, MELI, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, PK, PYPL, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, REZI, SCI, SBGI, SP, SUM, SMCI, WTS, Z, and ZG all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ANSS, CAR, BKH, CHRW, CRC, CTSH, DXC, THG, PTVE, CNXN, PRU, RNR, RUN, TYL, WES, WMB, and WSC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AFG, CHRD, ESTE, HLF, ROKU, SIGI, and WERN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ALB, BALY, BMRN, CF, CAKE, EIX, NVST, EXEL, LNC, VAC, MET, NOG, NUS, NTR, PTC, RRX, SEDG, TS, and VSTO all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABNB, EXAS, HST, IR, PTVE, PYPL, QRVO, QCOM, and SMCI all raised their forward guidance.  Unfortunately, ANSS, BXP, CTSH, VAC, NTR, PTC, and SEDG lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned strongly to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.94%) and Shanghai (-0.45%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+2.23%), South Korea (+1.81%), New Zealand (+1.78%), and Thailand (+1.74%) led the rest of the region higher.  In Europe, we see strong green numbers across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.77%), DAX (+1.51%), and FTSE (+1.26%) lead the region higher on volume with several of the smaller bourses up well more than the volume leaders in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a higher start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.55% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.84% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields a down slightly to 4.711% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 1.5% to $81.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Factory Orders (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, and ZTS.  Then, after the close, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, BAC said Wednesday that its “Sell-Side Indicator” is at levels of extreme bearishness, which is bullish for stocks.  (In essence, they are saying their proprietary indicator says the market is extremely oversold.)  The indicator value implies a 15.5% return on the SPY in the next 12 months.

In miscellaneous news, BAC said Wednesday that its “Sell-Side Indicator” is at levels of extreme bearishness, which is bullish for stocks.  (In essence, they are saying their proprietary indicator says the market is extremely oversold.)  The indicator value implies a 15.5% return on the SPY in the next 12 months.  Elsewhere, JPM CEO Dimon criticized the state of TX (and by extension the other GOP-led states of similar ilk) which has passed laws designed to punish banks for any policies that stop them from working with fossil fuel industries.  Meanwhile, SBUX gave another hint that the economy remains strong.  The coffee company reported same-store sales grew 8% mostly attributed to higher average purchases but also a 3% increase in customers.

So far this morning, FOX, GOLF, WMS, APTV, BAX, BR, BRKR, COR, CI, COP, CRTO, DLX, DFH, LLY, NVRI, EPAM, FOXA, GCI, GEL, DINO, HWM, HII, ITT, KTB, LAMR, MAR, TAP, MUR, NVO, PLTR, PBF, PENN, PWR, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SEE, SHOP, SBUX, TFX, VIRT, and VNT all reported beats on both the revenue and the earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADT, AEP, APG, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BDC, BWA, CVE, XRAY, DUK, ENTG, H, ING, IRM, KBR, DNOW, NRG, OGE, PBI, PRMW, SHEL, SRCL, WEN, WLK, and ZTS all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, EXC, PTON, RCM, and TRN beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, CIGI, PZZA, MD, STGW, and TPX missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in full control in the premarket this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the early session higher and have put in large, white-bodied candles with little wick since then. All three of the major index ETFs are now above their T-line (8ema) and SPY is crossing back above its 200sma in the premarket. Keep in mind that all three still remain near correction territory, being down 6%-7% from their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend while the Bulls have control this week. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line while the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, there is room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find the momentum. This morning we seem to be getting energy from good earnings reports and Fed decision, statement, and comments yesterday. However, there is some news in the premarket and day that could give us volatility. So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service