Getaway Day
Combine Friday and the last trading day before Christmas, and you might hear volume sucked out the market. Today is the perfect storm for a Getaway Day for the long weekend. As always there will likely be a flurry of opening activity, but after that, expect very light volume chop. Monday the market is closed, and I would not be at surprised to light volume next Tuesday as traders extend their vacation. If your not planning to take the day off then work on your trading plan for next year. Review your past trades and look for ways to improve. Clean your watchlists and prepare shopping lists for next year. It’s also a very good time to study new techniques or strategies to improve as a trader. I wish you all a Very Merry Christmas!
On the Calendar
The last day of trading before Christmas see an Economic Calendar with several important reports. At 8:30 AM Eastern is the Durable Good Orders which consensus sees increasing by 2%. Even after excluding transportation orders are expected to increase by a solid gain of 0.5% with the core number growing by 0.4%. Also at 8:30 AM is Personal Income and Outlays which income is seen rising 0.4% and consumer spending up 0.5% with the holiday boost. At 10:00 AM is New Home Sales is expecting a decline from October’s 685K vs. Novembers 650K. At 10:00 AM is Consumer Sentiment that is expected to remain very strong with a consensus estimate of 97.0.
On the Earnings Calendar, there are only six companies expected to report today now of which are particularly notable.
Action Plan
The Bulls found a little inspiration yesterday gaping up and pushing higher during the day. Unfortunately, the last hour of the day saw some significant profit taking once again confirming a reason for caution. Currently, the uptrend is still intact, and the VIX showed no rising fear. Futures are currently positive removing the possibility of a government shutdown by passing a CR that’s good through January 19, 2018.
After the morning rush, I expect today’s volume to drop faster than the Times Square New Years Eve ball. Although I will be at my desk, I will not be doing any trading other than maybe taking some profits.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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A mistake often made.
As we head into Christmas and the New Year, I feel compelled to remind you that not every day is a good day to trade. A mistake often made by short-term traders is thinking they have traded just because they happen to be sitting in front of their computers. It’s a painful lesson I learned the hard way. There are times to trade aggressively, and there are times that it’s much wiser just to stand aside. Quality of trades is far more important than quantity of trades. I know it seems sounds cliché’, but less is quite often more. Market volume is likely to remain sub-par between now and the first of the year. If you do decide to trade, make sure you have a well thought out plan and are willing to endure a lot of choppy price action.
On the Calendar
Today the Economic calendar is overflowing with reports but only three that have the power to move the market. First at 8:30 AM, is the very important GDP number. Consensus says the overall number will stay unchanged at 2.1 % with consumer spending remaining unchanged as well. Weekly Jobless claims which are also at 8:30 AM are expected to come in at 234K a slight decline of 1000 from last week. Then we get the Philly Fed Business Outlook, also at 8:30. Consensus for December has the outlook coming in with a slight decline at 21.8 backing way from a 48-year high.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have just over 20 companies reporting today some that could have a market impact. Noteables before the bell are CAG, KMX, RAD, and PAYX. After the bell, we will hear from CTAS, NKE, and CAMP.
Action Plan
Sellers were quick to respond the yesterdays 100-point-gap with profit taking. After reaching price support level in just a few minutes after the open volume died on the vine and we slipped into choppy action. As of now, there is no technical damage to the overall trends, but there is certainly reason to elevate caution. Dow futures are currently pointing to a slight gap up open but keep in mind that could quickly change. We have 3-important economic reports and some earnings that could easily make the open better or worse in the blink of an eye.
As for me, heading into a long holiday weekend, I plan to avoid adding any additional risk. Anything can happen over long weekends, so I’m more likely to seek the security of being in cash. Of course, I’m only talking about short-term holdings; with long-term trades, I will stay the course. After the morning rush, I expect volumes to diminish quickly. Choppy directionless price action could easily dominate the majority of the day. With the new year only a few days away it just seems foolish to risk giving back the any of the fantastic profits in a low volume market.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
TTWO Blue Ice Failure and Bearish “h” Pattern
TTWO – Because of the Blue Ice Failure and Bearish “h” patterns I have added TTWO to our watchlist for short. Price has been very bullish over the last few months and has now painted a Cradle Top, and now presenting a possible Blue Ice failure with a Bearish “h” Pattern. The full potential of the short can only be reached with bearish follow-through. One plan might be to short below $107.75 with a stop above $113.90
At 9:10 AM ET. We will talk about the technical properties of TTWO with target zones, a couple of logical entries and a protective stop. We will also be showing our trade plan with risk/reward and expected profits.
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► Eyes On The Market
Although the SPY is still trending above the T-Line and the T-Line is still rising the recent price action in the Candles are looking a little like a scrooge. In the last 2-weeks, we have seen a few signs that the Bah Hum Bug sellers are hanging around. Yesterday’s Candle and recent candle patterns in the SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM are taking the cheer out of this week. We have made plenty of money, and there is plenty of money to be made. There are times to sit back and watch, and there are times to trade, what time do you think it is?
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Short Santa!
Yesterday’s price action left some reason for cautiousness. Three of the four major indexes left behind bearish candle patterns. How dare they Short Santa! The truth is love shorting because of the very quick money made during a panic move. However, for retail traders, we have to be very careful about predicting market tops and jumping to early. Been there, done that and have a lot of battle scars to remind me of the big losses that can occur when trying to predict. Unless you are willing to endure nasty whipsaws and being run over in a short squeeze, don’t short a trending market! If you think the market is failing then stand aside and wait for it to prove. It’s the big boys that will decide a top, not retail traders. Once they make that decision, it will be very obvious, and we will have plenty of time to participate. Try to predict and get eaten by the sharks.
On the Calendar
The hump day Economic Calendar gets doesn’t get going until 10:00 AM Eastern with Existing Home Sales. Existing sales increased in October 2.1 percent to a 4.870 million rate. Forecasters are expecting, even more, strength. December consensus expects a 5.550 million reading. At 10:30 AM we get the EIA Petroleum Status Report which is not forecast but has shown a trend of rising supplies and concerns about overall demand.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 20 companies expected to report today. Notable before the bell is GIS and WGO but after the bell keep an eye on BBBY. Don’t get caught by an earnings event. Always check reports against your portfolio!
Action Plan
After a gap up open, the bulls decided to take a siesta and allow the bears to have a little snack. The DIA, SPY, and IWM left behind bearish engulfing candles, and the QQQ joined in to slide south as well. Although caution is warranted, the futures have been signaling all night that a follow through move down will be challenged by the bulls. Perhaps it’s due to the Tax Reform bill passing the Senate or the good earnings reports from FDX and MU. However at this point but the bulls don’t seem ready to give up just yet.
If the futures continue to show strength into the open those who got short early could get trampled under by stampeding bulls. I’m not sure there is enough short interest to trigger a full on short squeeze, but you never know. Equally possible is that the gap up open could be meet with some very hungry bears. Stay on toes and focus on price action clues. Remember Congress will have to act quickly on a budget to prevent the government from running out of money midnight Saturday. The spin doctoring in the new could easily toss the market around so don’t dip into that eggnog just yet. It’s also important to note that with the holiday weekend fast approaching volumes could quickly decline so plan accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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