No Edge

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No Edge

No EdgeIncreased volatility, big overnight gaps, and violent reversals are great for very fast intra-day traders.  However, for the average retail swing trader, it means we have No Edge.  Everything that seemed to be working so well just one week ago is not working now.  That is the nature of the market.  It’s always changing and often that change is violent.  As a result, we as traders must recognize the change and quickly adapt or better yet just stand aside and protect our capital.  This week should be proof of the fact that not every day is a good day to trade and that setting in cash is a good position.  Eventually, all this wild emotional price action will come to an end, and cooler heads will prevail.  The question is will you be ready to trade or chopped to pieces trying to trade with no edge?

On the Calendar

We get things going on the Economic Calendar today with the very important Employment Situation report at 8:30 AM Eastern.  Consensus suggests nonfarm payrolls of 175,000 and an unemployment rate holding at a 17-year low of 4.1%.  Average hourly wages are expected to increase 0.3% with the average workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours.  Private payrolls are expected to increase 172,000 with manufacturing increasing by 18,000.  At 10:00 AM both Consumer Sentiment and Factory Orders numbers release.  Consensus suggests January Consumer Sentiment will come with a 95.0 reading.  The Factory Orders index is expecting an increase of 1.5% according to consensus.  We finish the week with two Fed Speakers at 1:30 PM and 3:30 PM.

We get a little break on the Earnings Calendar with only 46 companies reporting today.  Oil will take center stage with CVX, XOM, and PSX reporting before the bell.

Action Plan

Everything was looking okay until we had an unfavorable economic report yesterday morning creating a sudden gap down.  The bulls stepped filling the morning gap but failed to have enough strength to hold on to those gains by the end of the day.  As I write this, the Dow Futures are pointing to a nasty gap lower of more than 200 points.  I have been suggesting for some time now to prepare for increased volatility, but it’s still shocking to see the violence of these moves.  The big overnight gaps in both directions can chop an account to pieces.  I mentioned earlier this week to expect challenging price action and suggested new and inexperienced traders might want to watch from the sidelines.  Sadly that was a correct call.

The Employment Situation numbers this morning have the potential to improve or make worse today’s open.  Anything is possible.  I think the wild price action, quick reversals, and overnight gaps could become the new normal at least for the short-term.  Be very careful.  Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Tools and Rules

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Tools and Rules

Don’t chase, don’t predict, don’t use words like “I think” when trying to enter a position. When entering a position, start with common sense and your trading tools and rules. If you don’t have trading tools and rules, ask us.

The market is seeing a little more volatility this past week. Profit trading successfully will need more trading planing. Quality will when out over quantity every time! No two people alike, always follow your rules and only trade charts you understand, always be able to explain your trade to someone.

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We now have an Events Calendar so you can keep up with webinars and workshops. Below are a few coming up

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  • Clinics and Workshops
  • https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/events/

►A New Training Room

We have created a new Traning room (Room 3) for training, education, coaching and special events. Trading rooms can be found by clicking the big green “Live Trading Room” button at the top of any Hit and Run Candlesticks web page.

►Everyday At 9:10 AM ET.

Each Morning before the market opens Rick and the HRC members meet up to discuss today’s trade ideas. Rick, we will demonstrate live how each trade could be traded using our Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trends • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Continuation Patterns • Trade Planning… Learn More

► Eyes On The Market

Our closing words yesterday were “Follow the Trend.” What yesterdays close to the SPY was the three close below the T-Line and the futures this morning are suggesting the same today. It looks like the SPY may test the 20-SMA today and even lower, the Vol-Stops has flipped to negative, and continued pressure on the lower T-Line Band is close to the breaking point. Longs are warned when the price action starts to bump its head on the Lower T-Line Band.

The VXX short-term futures pulled back yesterday perfectly to the Lower T-Line Band then closed above the Vol-Stop by the end of the day. The VXX chart is carving out a Bullish (RBB) Rounded Bottom Breakout Pattern.

Rick’s Swing Trade ideas

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Candlesticks • Price Action T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Continuation Patterns

 

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.

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ERI Found a Bottom? ERI bullish above $33.95

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ERI Found a Bottom?

ERI Found a Bottom?After consolidation and pulling back to the 50-SMA ERI found a bottom. With 7% rally yesterday the buyers may be ready to push to the next level.  I yes a trending chart with several candlestick and chart pattern clues. Such as Bullish Morning Star, Bullish Engulf, T-Line Low and V-Stop support. ERI is our featured trade idea for your consideration.

To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching. Rick will help coach you to trading success. Today At 9:10 AM ET. We will demonstrate live how ERI could be traded using our Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools

► Learn the Power Of Simple Trading Techniques

On November 8, Rick shared CVRR as a trade for members to consider and how to use the trading tools listed below. Currently, the profits could have been about 29.7% or $380.00 with 100 shares. Using our Simple, Proven Swing Trade Tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning… Learn More

► Eyes On The Market (SPY)

We have ended January with price closing below the T-Line trend and above the T-Line Low trend. So far the sellers have just created a little profit taking. A close is low the $279.60 support area would put a very different spin on the SPY. When I look at the 3 and 5-day charts, I see that price is still holding above the T-Line High Band which suggest the bulls are still in charge just simply resting.

►The VXX short-term futures

Closed with a Doji Continuation pattern yesterday above the T-Line High Band. The VXX chart is also in an (RBB) Rounded Bottom Breakout Pattern with our strategy target still 20-40% away.

Rick’s Swing Trade ideas

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.

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No-Trade Zone

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No-Trade Zone

No-Trade ZoneQuarterly earnings result continue to roll in strong, but the bulls appear to be uninspired.  Perhaps they see the stocks as fully valued or just taking a rest to nurse a January party hangover.  With the Indexes having broken the up-trend its had to be bullish, but on the other hand, there is also very little reason to bearish.  Consequently, we temporarily find ourselves stuck in a no-trade zone.  At any moment either the bulls or bears could establish dominance, but as of right now they seem equally matched.  It’s times like this the trader has to take steps to protect your capital a resist over-trading.  When a market becomes choppy and volatile, it is very easy to give back some, all or even more of hard-won gains.  Slow your roll and be very picky about the trades you take.

On the Calendar

We kick off the today’s Economic calendar at 8:30 AM Eastern with the Weekly Jobless Claims.  Initial Claims continue to run at very low levels with a consensus expectation of 235K.  Productivity and Costs are also out at 8:30 and forecasters see nonfarm productivity rising 1.1% with labor costs up 0.9%.  At 9:45 AM PMI Mfg, Index is expected to post the best reading in 3-years at 55.5.  Selling prices reached 4-year highs both pointing to economic strength.  The ISM Mfg. Index comes out at 10:00 AM.  December New Order results hit a 14-year high and consensus see’s continued strength with a January reading of 58.6.  Last but not least, Construction Spending is seen rising 0.5% and home improvements up 0.7%.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have more than 160 companies reporting today.  A few of the notables before the bell today are BABA,  COP, UPS, and VLO.  After the bell, GOOG, and GOOGL will take center stage along with AMZN and AAPL.

Action Plan

To be honest, I was expecting a bit more fireworks to accompany the FOMC statement yesterday that indicated a more hawkish stance.  Instead, the price action just slowly drifted lower finding support at the lows before grinding back up.  After the close, FB, MSFT, QCOM, and all reported very strong earnings, but except for T, the market seemed unimpressed.  As I write this, Dow Futures are indicating a flat to slightly bearish open.

As earnings continue to roll in, we should expect volatile price action and opening gaps to continue.  As you plan the rest of your week keep in mind that Friday is the big Unemployment Situation number.  It would not be unusual for price action to become choppy and two-sided as we wait.  Heightened caution is warranted.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Trade Alert

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Good afternoon team.

During the live session today we picked up a couple trades.

1.  NKE is making a nice move off of support today.  Keep in mind the overall market is a bit funky so decide carefully if you want to enter any new positions.  Consider buying the NKE APR 65 Calls.  The initial stop is $65.95 but it could be tightened up after the close today.

2.  This trade is setup with a 3-chart because TBT tends to gap just about every day so we slowed down the price action with the 3-day.  Consider the MAR 35 Calls with the thought of a quick trade in mind.  The Initial Stop is $35.00.  Because TBT tends to gap if it gaps up either move your stop to lock in some gains or simply take the trade off and bank the profit.

Doug

Remember all trade ideas are for your evaluation and consideration.

Bullish J-Hook Pattern CBAY

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Bullish J-Hook Pattern

Bullish J-Hook PatternCBAY has formed a Bullish J-Hook Pattern, and the Candlesticks pattern is very near a Matt Hold and a Rising Method, price action on the T-Line and a burst of volume. Yesterday CBAY challenged 2015 high ending the day standing tall and proud. CBAY is a bullish chart; we may consider a buy above $12.00

Learn more about my trading tools join me in the trading room or consider Private Coaching. Rick will help coach you to trading success. Today At 9:10 AM ET. We will demonstrate live how CBAY could be traded using our Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools

► Learn the Power Of Simple Trading Techniques

On November 13, Rick shared CBAY as a trade for members to consider and how to use the trading tools listed below. Currently, the profits could have been about 29.7% or $275.00 with 100 shares. Using our Simple, Proven Swing Trade Tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning… Learn More

► Eyes On The Market

The SPY closed below the T-Line yesterday as did all the indices. Price action was a bit harsh yesterday not only closing below the T-Line but the upper band as well. Price also pushed on the lower band bending it but not closing below. The #1 goal for the bulls today is to protect the lower band and close back over the T-Line. If the Bulls lose the lower band, then the $279.60 should be tested.

The VXX short-term futures shot up yesterday too and past our profit target closing with a shooting stat. It is very likely we see a pullback today. The chart remains bullish, just not a buy at this time.

Rick’s Swing Trade ideas

Member Login – Full Daily List

30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual

Candlesticks • Price Action T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Continuation Patterns

 

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.

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Rough but not unexpected.

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Rough but not unexpected.

Rough but not unexpectedRough but not unexpected, is how I would describe yesterdays price action.  The 2018 bull run has been like a 5-year old hopped up on sugar and caffeine.  It’s a blast while it lasts, but the crash after it wears off can be brutal.  On the positive side, the economic markers continue to be very strong, and thus far earnings have supported this lofty level.  On the negative side, inflation seems to be heating up, and that may force the FOMC to raise interests rates beyond whats already expected.  Elevated volatility could be here to stay at least for the short term.  Price action over the next several days could be very challenging especially for inexperienced traders.  Now is the time to maybe do a little less trading, a little more trade preparation, and become very picky about the trades you take.

On the Calendar

We have a busy Economic Calendar on this last day of January.  We get going with the ADP Employment report which is looking for a private payroll number of 195.000 at 8:15 AM Eastern.  At 8:30 AM we get a reading on the Employment Cost Index where forecasters are calling for a 0.6% rise.  9:45 AM brings the Chicago PMI which forecasters are calling for a slight easing but still a very strong reading of 64.0.  The Chicago economy is at historic highs in data that goes back more than 50 years!  We get a reading on Pending Home Sales at 10:00 AM where the consensus expects a solid gain of 0.5%.  The EIA Petroleum Status comes in at 10:30 AM, and although there is no forecast, the trend suggests oil supplies will continue to decline.  The biggest report of the day will, of course, be the FOMC Announcement on interest rate policy at 2:00 PM Eastern.

Earnings reports continue to ramp up with over 150 companies reporting today.  Stay on your toes and have plans prepared for the companies you hold or are considering for purchase.

Action Plan

An ugly day for the markets yesterday with a big gap down and saw continued selling as the day progressed.  This morning futures are suggesting a bounce with the Dow currently showing about a 200 point gap up.  I have been suggesting for some time now to prepare for higher volatility, and I suspect it will make for challenging trading for several weeks to come.

As a result, expect bigger daily swings and overall point travel during the day.  Overnight reversals are common in this environment as well as intra-day whips that can be pretty dramatic.  We have several weeks so of earnings reports yet to chew through that will add to the uncertainty.  Today after the morning rush we could see the market become very choppy as we wait for the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 PM.  With overall market trends broken and so much whipped up emotion, it may be wise just to sit back and watch the show unless you are a very fast day trader.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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