Who poked the Bear?
Okay, who poked the Bear? Most reasonable thinking traders have expected a market pullback while secretly hoping the bears would not come back to work at least for a while longer. After all who wants the party to end? It seems unfair when the market makes an overnight reversal that traps the retail trader, but that is the nature of this business. As an inexperienced trader, I would always try to assign blame to someone or something when I lost money on mornings like this one. When the truth of the matter was the blame, was mine and mine alone. When the market was super bullish, I would chase, trades like a madman never once evaluating the condition of the overall market. Remember trading is a business and the buck always stops with you!
On the Calendar
The hump day Economic Calendar gets going at 8:30 AM with the Import and Export Prices. Consensus for December has imports up 0.4% and export prices at 0.3%. Talking about interest rates seems to be in vogue this week with four Fed speakers today. Evans at 9:00 AM, Kaplin at 9:10 and then again at 10:15 with Bullard at 1:30 PM to finish up today’s tour. At 10:30 AM is the EIA Petroleum Status Report which could be very important today with the recent rally in oil.
There are 14 companies expected to report today on the Earnings Calendar. Front and center will be the builders with LEN reporting before the bell and KBH after the bell. Remember the official kick off earnings session is Friday when several of the big banks report.
Action Plan
Yesterday saw yet another round of new record high closes in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. The IWM managed to break out, printing a new record high but then slipped back into consolidation. I doubt anyone is all that surprised that the futures are finally pointing to a lower open this morning. However, it’s always disappointing when it happens overnight traping retail traders. Now the question is will it trigger some panic selling or will those tenacious bulls dig in to wait for earnings.
With the rally have been so strongly up you have to look at intra-day charts find price supports. Keep in mind that potential reversals can create a lot of fast price action. Violent whipsaws are possible if the emotions of fear or panic begin to well up. Times like this can be very challenging for new or inexperienced traders so plan accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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T-Line Low Supports Pullback
IMMU has had a beautiful bullish run from early December breaking out of the October high. The sellers printed a Shooting Star, and price action followed for six straight days. Yesterday after meeting up with the T-Line Low price fought back by closing up 8.23% and creating a bullish J-Hook continuation pattern. Over $16.45 could trigger more buyers. We have added IMMU to our watchlist for consideration.
At 9:10 AM ET. We will demonstrate how IMMU was chosen using our Simple Proven Swing Trade Strategies
Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Continuation Patterns • Trade Planning
► Learn From The Chart (WTW)
On December 26, we shared, in detail, the technical chart properties of WTW in our members Trading Room and why we thought this chart was ready for a run. Yesterday the profits would have been about 13.50% or $685.00 with 100 shares. Using our simple, proven Swing Trade tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
► Eyes On The Market (Caution Caution Caution)
Six days up is more than this horse can take. The SPY has moved higher the past six days a little faster than it can handle and is now in need of a rest. As I mentioned in last nights e-Learning webinar, the market is primed for a profit taking and the morning futures are pointing this out. The main trend is still up, and as of yet, support has not been broken. I suspect we see the sellers challenge the $271.70 area and then we can get a better idea of what price action is up to.
The VXX short-term futures printed a Bullish Egulf yesterday, and today it will likely test the T-Line Band High. A close over the T-Line Band High would indicate that fear is heating up and that would be a first step in creating a bullish bottom in the VXX chart.
Rick’s Swing Trade ideas – MEMBERS remember to log into the members’ blog for the trade ideas – Member Login
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Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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The Bulls Keep Charging
The bulls keep charging upward trampling any bears that happened to step into their path. I like some everyone else see the indexes as extend and common sense would suggest a rest of pullback should occur soon. It took me a long time learn that when the bulls are this feisty that try to apply common sense left me standing on the sidelines and missing out on an extraordinary bull run. I can only assume that money is pouring into funds and 401K plans because of the fear of missing out. There are now analysis’s which have built a case for Dow 30,000. If you think that can’t happen, just go back and study the late 90’s tech bull run.
Please understand that I am not predicting that will occur I’m only pointing out it has in the past, and the possibility exists. Common Sense may not apply. Stay with the trend but guard against complacency by having a plan to protect profits and capital if the bears return. Remember reversals can be swift and brutal but a prepared trader and avoid the pitfalls of emotional trading.
On the Calendar
Tuesday’s Economic Calendar begins with a Fed Speaker at 10:00 AM followed directly by the Jolts report. Consensus for November on job openings is expected to grow to 6.038 million. With the country at seen at full employment, supports the concern that the lack of qualified workers is now limiting company growth. After that, we only have a couple of bond auctions to close the economic calendar day.
On the Earnings Calendar, we have 13 companies reporting results. Notable before the bell is AZZ and SCHN and after the close is WDFC and SNX.
Action Plan
After a slightly weak beginning to the trading day, the bulls once again showed their tenacity by pushing higher. The DIA closed down a whopping 0.05% while the SPY, QQQ, and IWM pushed upward to set new record closing highs. Go Bulls! Currently, the Dow futures are pointing to a slightly higher open this morning. Oil futures are also pushing higher this morning as winter demand continues to grow with the persistent cold temperatures around the country continue.
I fell like I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, but the bulls are still in control so I will say with the trend. However, with the market looking as if its extended at least in the short-term we should closely monitor price action and have a plan ready if profit-taking begins. The bears haven’t eaten in a very long time so given a chance expect them to bite at any time.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/Kf6QAxsTQzo”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
Rounded Bottom Breakout POOTB Strategy
FTK has been in a downtrend that seems to have hit bottom on November 8, 2017. A Bullish piercing candle started the bullish price action that has lead to constructing a Bullish Bottom. Price broke out above the 50-SMA creating an RBB strategy, and the recent price action is now creating a Pop Out of The Box strategy as well. To learn more about the “RBB” and the “POOTB” visit us in the trading room.
At 9:10 AM ET. We will demonstrate how FTK was chosen using our Simple Proven Swing Trade Strategies
►Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools
Candlesticks • Price Action T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Continuation Patterns
► Learn From The Chart (ALDR)
On December 26, we shared, in detail, the technical chart properties of ALDR in our members Trading Room and why we thought this chart was ready for a run. Yesterday the profits would have been about 30.47% or $350.00 with 100 shares. Using our simple, proven Swing Trade tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
► Eyes On The Market
The S&-500 closed at another new high yesterday candlesticks stacking higher and higher. I was asked yesterday if the market is getting oversold? I replied “yes,” and I think all investors think the same thing. One person said oversold to what? True oversold compared to what? Then I said maybe the best way to look at this market is to follow the trend, the trend is not predictive it is what it is, and when the price falls out of the trend, you will know. Oversold/overbought indicators promo is guessing and predictions. Price action in or out of the trend is crystal clear.
The VXX short-term futures follow the trend, not much to talk about until price action can close above the “Lower T-Line Band”
Rick’s Swing Trade ideas – MEMBERS remember to log into the members’ blog for the trade ideas – Member Login
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Candlesticks • Price Action T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Continuation Patterns
Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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Weekly Doji Continuation Pattern
The weekly Doji continuation pattern on SM has recently broken out of a bullish rectangle pattern – On the daily chart, The T-Line is rising after a breakout of resistance with price resting with two dojis and support. The breakout pattern suggests the buyers think has not reached its potential. A major profit zone that you might consider is the $42.00 area with several mini profit zones on the way.
At 9:10 AM ET. We will talk about the technical properties of SM with target zones, a couple of logical entries and a protective stop.
► Must Read Trade Update (OSTK)
On January, we shared, in detail, the technical chart properties of OSTK in the Trading Room and why we thought this chart was ready for a run. Friday the profits would have been about 17.90% or $1280.00. Using our simple tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
► Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools
T-Line • T-Line Bands • Chart Patterns • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Price Action • Candlesticks • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Pattern • Pop Out of The Box Pattern
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► Eyes On The Market
Friday marked another four days positive run for the S&P-500, and it’s ETF the SPY. This 4-day run may need a little rest and pullback. Price has moved pretty far from the T-Line, and it has been my experience that when this happens price stalls out to allow the T-Line to catch up. Resting pullback can be very shallow or even test the previous day’s support. Below $272.95, we could see $272.60 and below $272.60 and below $272.60 we could see $271.80, so on, so on, so on.
The VXX short-term futures may be trying to get off the ground, above $26.90 and we may have to take the VXX a little serious.
Rick’s Swing Trade ideas –
Symbols from TC2000
CME
NVDA
DO
FOSL
AGN
TECK
RIG
BURL
NOG
HIBB
CHRS
ATRS
Learn how and what we trade: The T-Line • T-Line Bands • Chart Patterns • Support • Resistance • Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Price Action • Candlesticks • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Pattern • Pop Out of The Box Pattern
Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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Weekly Doji Continuation Pattern
The weekly Doji continuation pattern on SM has recently broken out of a bullish rectangle pattern – On the daily chart, The T-Line is rising after a breakout of resistance with price resting with two dojis and support. The breakout pattern suggests the buyers think has not reached its potential. A major profit zone that you might consider is the $42.00 area with several mini profit zones on the way.
At 9:10 AM ET. We will talk about the technical properties of SM with target zones, a couple of logical entries and a protective stop.
► Must Read Trade Update (OSTK)
On January, we shared, in detail, the technical chart properties of OSTK in the Trading Room and why we thought this chart was ready for a run. Friday the profits would have been about 17.90% or $1280.00. Using our simple tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
► Simple Proven Swing Trade Tools
T-Line • T-Line Bands • Chart Patterns • Support • Resistance • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Price Action • Candlesticks • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Pattern • Pop Out of The Box Pattern
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► Eyes On The Market
Friday marked another four days positive run for the S&P-500, and it’s ETF the SPY. This 4-day run may need a little rest and pullback. Price has moved pretty far from the T-Line, and it has been my experience that when this happens price stalls out to allow the T-Line to catch up. Resting pullback can be very shallow or even test the previous day’s support. Below $272.95, we could see $272.60 and below $272.60 and below $272.60 we could see $271.80, so on, so on, so on.
The VXX short-term futures may be trying to get off the ground, above $26.90 and we may have to take the VXX a little serious.
Rick’s Swing Trade ideas – MEMBERS remember to log into the members’ blog for the trade ideas – Member Login
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Learn how and what we trade: The T-Line • T-Line Bands • Chart Patterns • Support • Resistance • Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Price Action • Candlesticks • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Pattern • Pop Out of The Box Pattern
Investing and Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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Feed the Beast?
Last week the bulls ran like their tails were on fire and their hind ends were catching. I saw a headline where Cramer said the market is in “Beast Mode.” Okay, but I think the real question on the mind of most traders, is should they continue to feed the beast? There is no question that the market seems extended and any reasonable thinking trader suspects a pullback could start at any time. However, price action currently has no hint of stopping just yet. We all know that predicting is unproductive as it could put you on the wrong side of the market or have you missing out on the best bull run of the year. My suggestion is to say with the trend taking profits along the way and focus on price action for clues of a change. Take only low-risk entries when adding risk and avoid chasing of any kind. The trend is our friend, stay with it until it ends.
On the Calendar
Monday’s Economic Calendar seems focused on kicking off an FOMC speaking tour. The is one before the market opens, one at 12:40 and another at 1:35. We have a couple of small reports that are likely to go unnoticed by that market as well as two bond auctions to round out the day.
There are 11 companies on the Earnings Calendar expected to report day. Although there are a couple of bigger companies, I would not expect any of them to be market moving. Keep in mind earnings season officially kicks off on Friday with reports from Blackrock, PNC, JPM, and WFC.
Action Plan
The futures markets opened yesterday positively and have managed to maintain that sentiment all night. New record high closes across all four of the major indexes as the bears seem to have gone into hibernation. The Consumer Electronics Show kicked off last night with the CEO of NVDA as the keynote. NVDA shares are indicated higher this morning and could make an all-time high. The INTC CEO speaks this evening with most thinking they will extinguish the recent chip rumors.
Tech could be a driving force for the first part of this week due to the new coming out of CES, but it will quickly shift to the beginning of earnings season that officially kicks off on Friday. As always I will continue to trade with the trend and focused on price action. Having moved up so strongly last week, it would not be out of the question to see the market rest so watch closely for price action clues. Also, remember gap up opens to new market highs can produce whipsaws and reversals so don’t chase.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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