Classic Blue Ice Failure
MARRIOTT is a classic Blue Ice Failure that has failed to use the upper T-Line Band to find a bullish territory. Price has repeatedly failed the upper band and yesterday closed below the lower band and the 50-SMA. Weakness from here and in the market could force MAR to test the February lows then about $117.30
We will discuss the trade details with Trader Vision 20/20 in our Members Morning Prep starting at 9:10 EST this morning.
Hope to see everyone at the members morning briefing 9:10 EST today.
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►SPY Up Date
Yesterday’s price action and Bearish Engulf did not end well for the bulls. The probability is pretty high we see a lower low today. Most important is the $270.90 area. If the Bulls can not defend their mountain, the bears will attack $265.95 then $262,00, then the February low. Between yesterdays close and $270.90, there is plenty of support if the bulls want it, but they will have to take it.
►Learn Our Tools and Trading Techniques
On February 15, Rick shared MOYK as a trade for members to consider and how to use the trading tools listed below. Currently, the profits could have been about 14% or $725.00 with 100 shares. Using our Simple, Proven Swing Trade Tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning
►The VXX short-term futures
The VXX printed a Bullish Morning Star and closed above the Lower band, bullish follow-through over the next day or so would indicate increased fear in the market.
►Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching. Rick will help coach you to trading success.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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All Eyes on Jerome Powell
Today we get an introduction to our new Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell. Will he be hit the ground running hawkish on interest rates or will ease into the position with a bit more dovish approach? No matter what he says, we can expect the market to be sensitive to each of every word. With the market now showing such bullish strength even hint of dovishness could launch the market higher. Hawkish comments could easily have the reverse effect.
Couple that with a big day of earnings and a heavy economic calendar we should be prepared for an extra dose of volatility today. That means the potential for fast price action and whipsaws. Buckle up the ride could be thrilling but also very bumpy. Remember the 400 point rally from yesterday could be just as quickly reversed. Follow your rules and maintain your discipline and always remember that cash is position and that every day need not be traded to achieve success in the market.
On the Calendar
We get going at 8:30 AM Eastern on the Economic Calendar. First is the Durable Goods Orders which consensus is expecting a 2.0% decline with transportation seen up 0.3% and core capital goods orders rising 0.5%. Next is international Trade in Goods which is, of course, running in a deficit however it is expected to narrow with consensus expecting 71.3 billion vs. 72.3 billion in December. Also at 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM, our new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will testify in Congress. The market could be very sensitive to anything he says. At 9:00 AM is the S& P CoreLogic Case-Shiller which forecasters see as rising 0.6% in December with a yearly increase seen at 6.3%. There are several other economic reports that are unlikely to move the market as well as a couple of bond events.
On the Earnings Calendar there more than 240 companies expected to report today. Stay on your toes.
Action Plan
Yesterday I mentioned to make sure and not chase but watch for the follow through bullish price action before entering anything. After the morning pop, the indexes did pause and pull back slightly before the bulls began a rip-roaring party that at one point had pushed the Dow up more than 400 points. It’s not all that surprising after a move like that the current Dow Futures are suggesting a gap down but only of about 50 points thus far. However, there is a big economic reports, a slew of earnings and our new Fed Chairman speaking that would shake this up before and after the open.
With the major indexes now solidly above the 50-day average a pullback to test it as support is not out of the question. On the other hand, if yesterday’s strong bullish attitude can continue to push us higher with little assistance from good earnings news and Jerome Powell not rushing into rate increases. It could be a very bumpy ride today with so much in the works. Remember what goes up can come down just as fast. Make sure you have an exit plan on all trades to either take profits or cut losses if a reversal does develop.
Trade Wisley.
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/NB22fcaIOtQ”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
Riding the T-Line
VECO has broken north of the downtrend line riding the T-Line, rested and yesterdays closed testing the recent high. VECO’s recent bullishness suggest higher highs are yet to come with a confirmed J-Hook Pattern. A profit zone may be around the $22.25 area.
We will discuss the trade details with Trader Vision 20/20 in our Members Morning Prep starting at 9:10 EST this morning.
Hope to see everyone at the members morning briefing 9:10 EST today.
►SPY Up Date
The Bullish follow-through yesterday was top shelf pinning our trend line with perfection. Yesterday the SPY closed strong over the 50% line December January run; it looks ready to challenge the 38.3 Fib line within a day or two. Mild consolidation is expected, always what for sell signals and patterns that threaten the trend.
►Learn Our Tools and Trading Techniques
On February 15, Rick shared MOYK as a trade for members to consider and how to use the trading tools listed below. Currently, the profits could have been about 14% or $725.00 with 100 shares. Using our Simple, Proven Swing Trade Tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning
►The VXX short-term futures
The VXX is likely to see the 34-EMA with the sellers in control.
►Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching. Rick will help coach you to trading success.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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Be careful not to chase.
Another day and yet another triple point gap indicated by to the Dow Futures. Be careful not to chase! One of the many issues I struggled with as an inexperienced trader was getting caught up in the drama of the market. I would watch all the financial news with the exaggerated headline graphics and talking heads touting their market greatness and lose all sense of discipline. Que the dramatic bumper music. I would see the futures pointing to a big gap up and jump headlong into the shark-infested waters.
After getting my fair share of shark bites and losing more capital than I care to remember if finally learned a few very painful lessons. Trading plan and trading rules are there to protect you from you. However, they only work if you learn to ignore the drama and develop the discipline to follow them. After 13 years of supporting my family as a full-time trader, I can confidently say it’s my discipline to follow my plan that has made me successful. Are you following your plan or are you allowing the drama of the market control your destiny?
On The Calendar
The last week of February begins with a busy week on the Economic Calendar. The very important New Home Sales number come out at 10:00 AM Eastern as is expected to weaken but matain its strong rising trend with at print of 600K. At 8:30 AM is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and at 10:30 comes the Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey, but neither is expected to move the market. We round out the today’s calendar with three bond related events.
We also have another busy week on the earnings calendar as this earnings season continues to drag forever. Today there are over 12o companies expected to report earnings today. Always be prepared.
Action Plan
On Friday afternoon last week, the price action started to indicate improvement and give the appearance of holding support. The Dow managed to close above the psychological 25k level as well as hold above the 50-day average. The SPY also showed bullish strength above the 50-day average, and even the beleaguered IWM managed to close a few ticks above this important average. The QQQ continued to matain market leadership and closed Friday within striking distance of all-time resistance highs.
Unfortunately, it looks as if this gap-happy market will continue this morning as with the Dow Futures suggestion it will open about 150 points above Friday’s close. With VIX pulling back to test price support and the 50-day average be careful not to get caught of in morning drama and chasing into the gap. Keep in mind that price volatility remains high and the big intraday reversals we experienced last week are still possible. Stick to your plan and stay disciplined to your rules.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/oL4cv8hhgBE”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
Price Action Broke Resistance
Our moving trend lines have met the trend test with flying colors. Price action has broken out of resistance now support. Currently, a Pop Out of The Box Pattern is forming. I will be setting up a trading plan for about 25% with 3.24 to 1 risk ratio for VIPS in our Members Morning Prep starting at 9:10 EST this morning.
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Hope to see everyone at the members morning briefing 9:10 EST today.
►SPY Up Date
Friday was a good day for the buyers! The buyers added another important piece to the Bull Flag with a Bullish Morning Star Candle Pattern. Today we are looking for follow-through and a close over $275.45. A close over $275.45 would put the buyers in a good position to challenge the January highs in the future. A failure back below the 50-SMA would indicate the sellers are stronger and have a different agenda for the direction of price.
►Learn Our Tools and Trading Techniques
On February 13, Rick shared VIPS as a trade for members to consider and how to use the trading tools listed below. Currently, the profits could have been about 16% or $250.00 with 100 shares. Using our Simple, Proven Swing Trade Tools and techniques to achieve swing trade profits.
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning
►The VXX short-term futures
Currently, VXX is trading below the T-Line Bands, Seller control
►Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching. Rick will help coach you to trading success.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
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Patience
We have all heard the phrase; Patience is a Virtue. For the swing trader patience is a difficult but very import skill that each of us must learn to master. To be successful in this business, we wait for the proper combination of patterns, price action, volume and volatility that provides us with an Edge. That sweet spot where risk is acceptable and probabilities move in our favor. Patience is also a test of endurance because the longer we wait, the harder it is to maintain the discipline of being patient.
The fact is traders just want to trade, but if we trade, without an edge, our capital is ripped from our accounts and given back to Mr. Market. I won’t speak for you, but I think I deserve my capital much more than that Mr. Market. Consequently, it’s essential that I master the skill of patience and develop endurance to wait for my Edge! Are you willing to endure the wait or will you turn your capital over to Mr. Market?
On the Calendar
It would seem this Friday on the Economic Calendar is an FOMC speaker day. At 10:15 AM Rosengren and Dudley speak with Mester at 1:30 PM and Williams ending the day at 3:40 PM. The Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM is the only economic report today, and it is not expected to move the market.
We also get a break on the Earnings Calendar today with only 56 companies reporting. The vast majority of the earnings reports occur before-the-bell.
Action Plan
We started the day with some bullish energy, but once again the bears mounted a counter-offensive that left all but one index seeing red. At one point during the day, the Dow was up more than 300 points but gave nearly half of it back and once again closing below that big round number 25,000. The SPY ended the day in the red, closing below the 50-day average as did the IWM. Yesterday was the 3rd attempt in as many days for the SPY and the DIA to break through the 50 but thus far been rejected. The IWM has experienced the rejection of the 50 SMA, 4-days in a row. Even the QQQ, the strongest of the four indexes could on hold on to a positive print at the close.
While all that seems pretty bearish, there is a glimmer of bullishness because all four of the indexes are at least for now holding above significant price support levels. The choppiness of the price action has made trading extremely challenging if on impossible except for the very fast intra-day traders. By in large earnings reports continue to come in positive as does most of the Economic Reports. As I write this, the Dow Futures are pointing to a gap up of more than 100 points, adding to the choppy confusion. What all this means to me as a swing trader is that I have to continue to patiently wait until the intra-day volatility subsides and a discernable edge can be defined. Long or short doesn’t matter just show me a direction. Have a great weekend.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/tuM-WitH9JA”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
