Earnings uncertainty.

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Earnings uncertainty.

Earnings uncertaintyReading through weekend headlines there seems to be talking heads all over the spectrum.  One will almost giddy with bullishness and the next profession extremely bearishness.  Blah, blah, blah.  Although they all seem so very self-assured, as to they’re correctness the truth is they are as uncertain as we all are and just talking up their positions.  So what’s a retail trader to do with so much earnings uncertainty?

Remember that Price is King!  Focus on price action without bias, and directional clues will always present themselves is we patiently wait for them.  Easier said than done.  Especially for those caught up in the myth that they have the power to predict.  I gave up the idea that I could predict years ago and dedicated myself to simply following price.  It’s the institutions with their trillions of dollars that determine the direction of a stock.  As retail traders, we can hitch a ride if we stop predicting and learn to follow price action.  Supporting my family as a full-time trader for the last 13 years is a testament to that truth.

On the Calendar

On the Economic Calendar, this Monday the Chicago Fed National Activity Index kicks of the day at 8:30 AM Eastern and is not expected to move the market.  However, the PMI Composite Flash at 9:45 AM and Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM could easily move the market.  First, the PMI expects a reading of 54.6 overall with manufacturing at 55.0 and services coming in at 54.5 according to consensus forecasts.  Secondly, the Housing Starts consensus expects a slight decline to 5.528 million annualized units vs. the 5.540 April reading.  After that, we have three bond events to wrap up the calendar day before noon on the east coast.

Today begins the heaviest week of earnings reports this season with just over 100 expected to report today.  Before the bell, we will hear from HAL, HAS, KMB & OPB to name a few.  After the bell, all eyes will be on GOOG, GOOGL, CNI & AABA.

Action Plan

With so many earnings reports this week, prepare for the possibility of big gaps, whipsaws and fast price action, particularly in the morning session.  Thus far, earnings by in large, have come in pretty strong and analysts seem to expect positive results to continue.  The big question is will it be enough to impress a nervous market with AAPL moving lower and 20-year treasuries moving up toward 3%.  Futures markets have been under pressure most of the night as markets sold off around the world due to interest rate worries.

Currently, the Dow futures are trying to recover from overnight lows but suggest a flat to slightly bearish open.  That, however, could quickly change as earnings reposts roll in this morning.  We should plan for considerable earnings volatility and fast price action around the open for the rest of the week.  Keep a very close eye on price action for directional clues.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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A Valuable Secret About Trades

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A Valuable Secret About Trades

How many trades ideas do you post? That is a common question I receive at least five times a month. Please let me explain a valuable secret about trades given out. If your not making money now, sharing a trade idea will not change that. Without the proper education, the probabilities are extremely high you will not prosper from a free trade idea. It baffles me why new and struggling traders will not spend the time or budget money for trading education. Please understand the probability of trading success is -ZERO- without an education plan. Scroll down to read a testimonial from a current member.

4/23/2018 Due to technical difficulties there are no trade ideas today. We will share plenty of trades during the day.

STOCHASTICS-RSI For a Sharper EDGE Workshop

Stochastics -RSI has been widely used by many but none with the accuracy and consistency of my good friend and colleague Steve Risner. Steve will be sharing how he uses Stochastic/RSI and a grouping of 3 moving averages to trade for a living. Steve will proudly show you one of his accounts that he increased from $51,642 to $55,807 in one month. Would learning more about STOCHASTICS/RSI be good for you?

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Live Members Morning Prep starting at 8:45 AM Est. With Steve Risner and Rick Saddler at 9:10 am this morning. members morning briefing

ADM 41% • IWM 13% • SHLD 57% • FOSL 11% • IWM 49% • CVEO 29% • GE 11% • ANF 56% • CREE 51% • FLO 3% • VXX 6% • CAT 39%   • TWTR 50% • FEYE 28% • OCN 39% • TWTR 54% • QQQ 28% • QQQ 179% • TWTR 180% • VXX 375% VIPS 118% • WTW 21.9% •

SPY • Big Earnings Week

The SPY has been resting the past 3 bars just as we expected and talked about in the trading room last week. Last week we had drawn a support line at $265.10, and so far it has kept the sellers at bay. This is a big week for earnings, and if earnings cannot support the buyers, a break down of $265.10 would suggest another test of February and April low support line. On the other hand, good earnings could push the price over the $273.35 line which would keep the current trend in play.

The VXX is trying to find support at the 200-SMA, over the 50-SMA would concern me.

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Testimonial

I have tried many trading services over the last 20 years and have also blown up two accounts to the tune of $40,000. I have seen Hit, and Run Candlesticks come up in my email offerings and never gave them a second look thinking they were just another money grubbing services eager to take my membership fee. But I read a testimonial recently kind of like this one and said I would give it a shot. Why I didn’t see the difference in that HRC offers a monthly subscription (instead of the usual yearly membership) and at less than half of what most services charge was mostly due to my pigheadedness.

Once I joined, I quickly learned that Rick Saddler and his team were not here to sell subscriptions, they were here because they truly wanted to help others learn swing trading and learn to become better traders. Rick Saddler is just a down-to-earth guy who will challenge you and ask you what your plan is; in whatever ticker you are inquiring about. He then will give you his thoughts on that symbol. He honestly is coaching you, to bring out the best trader in you, helping you to set aside the emotions and learn the simple approach to swing trading that he does all day long live.

The traders that are in the room (other members) share what trades they are making and why. My trading account went to green shortly after joining and following the alerts and trade ideas in the room and via the site. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options have been a godsend for my account. Thank you, Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter and Steve Risner. You are The Real Deal!

Tom Paolini

 

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.

*************************************************************************************

 

Big Decision lies Ahead

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Big Decision lies Ahead

Big DecisionA big decision lies ahead for the market.  Currently, the indexes seem stuck between a rock and a hard place with moving averages trying to provide support and significant overhead price resistance trying to hold them down.  Currently the bulls the and bears seem somewhat equally balanced, and both sides appear to be waiting for inspiration.  With around 800 companies expected to report earnings next week, they may find the catalyst to needed to make a decision.

The big question is who will gain the upper hand, the bulls or the bears?  As we saw yesterday, just the hint that AAPL could miss on sales expectations sent the stock sharply lower.  It obviously wouldn’t take much to embolden the bears producing another lower high in the index.  However, if the earnings can continue to come in strong, it may provide the energy required to finally break-through resistance levels.  As short-term traders, we must prepare for both possibilities just in case that big decision occurs next week.

On the Calendar

We have a very light Friday Economic Calendar with no market-moving reports.  We have Fed speakers at 9:40 AM and 11:15 AM as well as the Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM to finish the day.

We also have a light day on the Earnings Calendar with only 25 companies expected to report.  Among them CFC, CLF, GE, and HON.

Action Plan

We saw a bit more selling then I was hoping for yesterday, but at the end of the day, the bulls did make an effort to defend price supports.  There was some significant pressure in the tech sector as AAPL sold off sharply on worries the company with fall considerably short of sales expectations.  The fear of slowing mobile demand put pressure on the entire tech sector yesterday with the QQQ testing it’s 50-day average.  The good news is the selling did not seem to ruffle market fears with the VIX showing very little interest in moving yesterday.  Currently, the Dow Futures are suggesting a relatively flat open but as earnings come out this morning that could certainly change quickly.

I still think the market wants to take a little rest around the 50-day averages as we head into the weekend.  Next week is a big week for earnings reports, and perhaps that will provide some directional inspiration.  Some strong reports could provide just enough energy to the bull to attack overhead resistance.  On the other have if earnings disappoint the bears could produce another lower high in the indexes and fail to hold the moving average support.  Although I hope the bulls will prevail, I know that I must also prepare in the event the bears gain the upper hand.  Consider that as you plan your risk heading into the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Consolidation?

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Consolidation?

ConsolidationAfter the wild whips, we have experienced over the last 30 days of trading a couple of small range days in the market sure seems boring.  However, a little boring is just what the market needs to calm the nerves of traders and investors.  In our fast-paced market, a resting consolidation above the 50-day average would be very healthy in my humble opinion.  Consolidations in an index establish good support and resistance levels which in turn provide great stock entry or exit points for traders.  They allow stocks currently trending a stable environment to move with deliberate price action and provide great setups for traders and investors alike.

I have to admit a long consolidation during earnings season would be quite rare and probably unlikely but after a month of daily overnight reversals, even a day or two of rest can create a lot of healing.  So keep in mind a little boring price action can be a very, very positive thing if you’re a good technical analysis.

On the Calendar

We have a full Economic Calendar this Thursday, but only two reports are likely to move the market, and they both come out at 8:30 AM Eastern.  Weekly Jobless Claims according to consensus will decline by 3000 to 230,000 as labor demand remains consistent and strong.  The Philly Fed Business Outlook expects a slight pullback to a reading of 20.1 vs. the March number of 22.3 but remains near 50-year highs.  Reports not expected to move the market, 9:45 Consumer Comfort Index, 10:00 Leading indicators, 10:30 Natural Gas Report, 4:30 Fed Balance Sheet & Money Supply as well several bond events.  Also on the calendar, we have 3 Fed Speakers at 8:00 AM, 9:30 AM and 6:45 PM to round out the day.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have just over 100 companies reporting.  Make sure to check reporting dates of companies you hold or planning to buy.  Failure to do so can lead to very painful losses if you’re not prepared.

Action Plan

Yesterday was a nice resting day with indexes holding above 50-day moving averages but below important levels of resistance.  The VIX is also reflecting a calmer market with the fear index between the 15 and 16 handles.  Earnings which most often increases volatility has so far had the opposite effect as thus far reports have been strong, supporting current prices.

As I write this, the Dow Futures are pointing to a slightly low open but with so many earnings reports on the calendar that could easily change.  After such a large recovery it would not be out of the question to see the market rest (consolidate) or experience a pullback as traders take profits in preparation for the weekend ahead.  If we do pull back, it will be very important for the bulls to defend price supports and hold indexes around their 50-day averages.  Failure to do so could easily encourage the bears to push for another leg lower.  Continued strength in earnings reports will be very important to keep this rally alive.  There are a lot very good looking charts right now but be careful not chase by buying at or near price resistance levels.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

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Sweet Relief

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Sweet Relief

What a great relief to see the bulls stepping up the plate once again.  Just when it seems safe to jump in both feet keep in mind just how much the market has rallied.  The Dow is now up now more than 1400 points since it’s low on April 2nd and is approaching a significant resistance level.  Strong earnings reports can and may continue to spur the bulls higher, but it would be wise to prepare for the possibility pullback or consolidation.

A major problem that plagued me years was failing to give proper respect to price resistance.  I would wait for so much confirmation that a stock or index was moving up that I was normally buying at or near price resistance.  As a result, I would often get punished wasting not only capital but also crushing my trading confidence.  If you currently suffer the same problem the fix is easy.  Learn to buy when prices are reacting to price supports.  Your win/loss ratio should improve and when you do get stopped our losses will typically be smaller.

On the Calendar

We have two potentially market-moving reports this Wednesday on the Economic Calendar.  Today Fed member, William Dudley, speaks at 8:30 AM and at 3:15 PM today.  The EIA Petroleum Status report is at 10:30 AM.  They don’t forward forecast petroleum supplies, but the last reading showed a slight increase in supplies.  The Beige Book comes out at 2:00 PM which is used by the FOMC as part of the decision making process on interest rates.  Any indication of inflationary pressures rising could cause markets to react negatively.  Winding up the calendar day at 4:15 PM is another Fed Speaker, Randal Queries.

The Earnings Calendar is picking up speed with 75 companies expected to fess up to their results today.  Before the bell, we will hear from MS, ABT, and USB.  After the bell AA, KMI, URI, and AXP are few of those slated to report.

Action Plan

After the morning gap, the indexes continued slowly pushing higher putting pressure on those holding short positions.  The DIA slipped into an intraday consolidation while QQQ powered higher inspired by strong earnings reports.  The good news is that all four of the major indexes closed above their 50-day averages and the current futures are showing some follow-through bullishness at the open today.

As good as that is there are still many challenges of resistance overhead, and we are starting to show a few signals of stress having moved so far so fast.  I would not be surprised to see a little resting consolidation or profit taking pullback to begin at any time.  Please understand I’m not suggesting bearishness, in fact, strong earnings could continue to inspire the bulls to keep pushing upward.  As always choose stocks that are reacting to price supports and tends and be cautious of those at or near price resistance levels.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Long-Term Bullish Ascending Triangle

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Long-Term Bullish Ascending Triangle

FSLR has been creating a long-term Bullish Ascending Triangle and the last few days has been showing signs bullishness. I shared my thoughts on FSLR at last nights Member eLearning pointing out how tight price was getting inside the Ascending Triangle. A breakout would suggest another bull run. Keep your eye on the $100.00 mark…Trade for success or learn to.

AMD took me to the bank yesterday +41%

STOCHASTICS-RSI For a Sharper EDGE

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PANW: Entry on 3/29 @ $182.43 • Exit on 3/13 @ $192.78

ADBE: Entry on 3/6 @ $213.57 • Exit on 3/13 @ $223.68

BA: Entry on 1/5 @ $298.61 • Exit on 1/18 @ $346.73

Stochastics -RSI has been widely used by many but none with the accuracy and consistency of my good friend and colleague Steve Risner. Steve will be sharing how he uses Stochastic/RSI and a grouping of 3 moving averages to trade for a living. Steve will proudly show you one of his accounts that he increased from $51,642 to $55,807 in one month. Would learning more about STOCHASTICS/RSI be good for you?

Live Members Morning Prep starting at 8:45 AM Est. With Steve Risner and Rick Saddler at 9:10 am this morning. members morning briefing

ADM 41% • IWM 13% • SHLD 57% • FOSL 11% • IWM 49% • CVEO 29% • GE 11% • ANF 56% • CREE 51% • FLO 3% • VXX 6% • CAT 39%   • TWTR 50% • FEYE 28% • OCN 39% • TWTR 54% • QQQ 28% • QQQ 179% • TWTR 180% • VXX 375% VIPS 118% • WTW 21.9% •

Event Calendar

SPY • Earning Season is Here

Another day higher and another trip to the bank! The SPY gapped and held it’s move yesterday as it climbs closer to where a group of sellers is hanging out. The $273.36 area may cause the SPY to retreat and re-group before it can continue the current run. The $265.11 area should act as support. The past 5-6 trading days has been good to us so let’s not push so hard we give our profits back.

****Earnings Season is Heating Up*****

The VXX is right on the edge of our bounce zone now that it has tagged the 200-SMA, the bounce zone is between the 200-SMA and the Dotted Duece.

Rick’s Trade-Ideas Reserved for Members

30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual

Focus Trading Education

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI

To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching.

 

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.

*************************************************************************************

 

Earnings

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Earnings

EarningsEarnings seem to be just what the doctor ordered as the bulls step up and show a willingness to follow-through.  With significant technical damage to repair in the index charts, let’s hope a good earnings reports can continue to inspire the bulls to break through resistance levels.  With all the political turmoil swirling about we must remain on our toes and have plans to manage the risk.  The VIX is showing signs of improvement, and with the reduction of daily reversals, a swing traders edge is also returning.

Keep in mind, repairing the technical damage in the index charts can be a challenging and choppy process.  However, if volatility remains in check, then stock pickers with good technical skills will once again have the upper hand.  Go Bulls!

On the Calendar

Today the Economic Calendar has two market-moving this Tuesday.  First at 8:30 AM Eastern, Housing Starts according to forecasters will post solid gains in March of 1.264 million annualized starts while permits slip slightly to 1.315 million.  Secondly at 9:15 AM the Industrial Production is expected to report a 0.4% gain overall with a 0.2% increase in capacity utilization climbing to 78%.  The Fed has a lot to say today with four speakers at 9:15, 10:00, 11:00 and 1:40.  The Redbook report at 8:55 and bond auction at 11:30 are very unlikely to move the market.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have a busy day of important reports with GS, JNJ, PGR, and UNH reporting before the bell.  After the bell, we will hear from the likes of CSX, IBM, ISRG, and UAL.  In total there are 50 companies expected to report results today.

Action Plan

I had mentioned a couple of weeks ago that earnings would likely be the best chance of settling market nerves and allow the market to pick a direction.  So far that seems to have been correct with market finally showing signs of follow through without the daily flip-flop.  Unfortunately, earnings commonly produce big opening gaps still making for a challenging trading environment, but the VIX is finally calming slightly.

Good earnings reports are just what the market needs right now as the indexes challenge the resistance of their 50-day moving averages and price action resistance levels.  The Dow Futures currently indicate a gap up of nearly 150 points at the open moving the index back above the 50 SMA.  The SPY and the QQQ will also attempt to breach this important average at the open today.  Continue to expect fast price action and keep in mind the bears are not likely to give up easily, and the risk of intraday whipsaws still exist.  With geopolitical issues continuing swirl overhead we can’t just throw caution to the wind.  Have a well thought out plan for every trade.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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