Overnight Bounce

October 12, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Overnight Bounce

The wild ride continues with futures indicating a huge overnight bounce off of yesterday closing low. Also, huge in the hearts and minds of trader will be the Fear-Of-Missing-Out and the desire to revenge trade to get their money back. Unfortunately, with the Dow indicating a bounce well over 300 points at the open you will have to have an iron constitution willing to chase into a market likely to whip violently.

The market will recover but it will likely weeks if not months to repair the technical damage this selloff created. Just study the February selloff as an example. While it’s true, there are bargain prices; you will have to earn them only if you have the willingness to hold the position though substantial whip. Fourth-quarter earnings will also add a complication to this process so carefully plan your risk as we head into the weekend.

On the Calendar

Import/Export Prices top the Economic Calendar this Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern. Consensus expects import prices by 0.2 percent while export prices rise 0.3 percent in September. Consumer Sentiment is expected to ease slightly in September to 99.5 according to consensus estimates. We have three Fed speakers today with Evans @ 9:30 AM, Bostic @ 12:30 AM, and Quartes @ 10:30 PM. Also, we have Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM, but it’s unlikely to move the market.

Fourth Quarter earnings officially get started today. Among the eleven companies reporting today the most notable are C, JPM, PMC, FRC, and WFC which all report before the bell.

Action Plan

After another day of heavy selling, the Futures are pointing to a substantial gap up this morning following rallies in both Asian and European markets. Part of the inspiration is coming from the new that the US and China are once again setting down at the trade negotiations table. Let’s hope we see some progress this time! Keep in mind the preliminary futures could move around significantly this morning as several of the big banks report before the bell.

With such a huge gap at the open, it may, unfortunately, be very difficult to profit unless you were a buyer at the close yesterday. Remember volatility is likely to remain very high so expect some very whippy price action. Entering this morning will not be for the faint of heart. Plan that you will likely have to be willing to sit through some rough price action and deep whipsaws. However, if you have the stomach for an intense roller-coaster ride, there may be some opportunities to pick up great stock at bargain prices as we bounce from such and extreme short-term oversold condition. Carefully plan how much risk you are willing to hold through the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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A Well Constructed Tradable Bottom

October 12, 2018 by Rick Saddler

A Well Constructed Tradable Bottom

A well constructed tradable bottom over the 200-SMA will be needed before a price can run back to the 50-SMA. Yesterday the SPY closed below the 200-SMA, and this morning the futures are up, and the banks report. After a drop that we have seen the last couple of days a bounce was likely to happen, the question is will the bounce soon lead to a meaningful reversal that puts us back to and over the 50-SMA and challenge the highs? First things first, I for one will wait to see if the SPY can close over and construct a tradable bottom above the 200-SMA. A well constructed and financed bottom above the 200-SMA could produce the juice needed for a run back to the 50-SMA.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020 or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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Going on Sale

October 11, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Going on Sale

Stocks are going on sale! I have been expressing concern over the last few weeks that fewer and fewer stocks were holding the market up. I have mentioned several times over the last several of months about a rotation into defensive sector stocks as well. Consequently, I have been expecting a pullback in the market, but I admit to being completely surprised by the panic and the magnitude of the selling we experienced yesterday!

The best move for most swing traders is to stand aside and let it happen while keeping your capital safety tucked away in your account. Technical damage like this will take a long time to repair, and the fast price action and high volatility will make profiting very challenging even for the most experienced traders. As bad as it may seem at the moment keep in mind that this is a good thing. Stocks are going on sale and if we patiently wait there will eventually be great deals for us when it’s over.

On the Calendar

A busy Thursday on the Economic Calendar but with a major selloff underway, I’m not sure anyone will pay much attention to the details. Possible market moving reports are, 8:30 AM Eastern CPI & Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Report at 10:30 AM, Petroleum Status Report at 11:00 AM, Treasury Budget at 2:00 PM and the Fed Balance Sheet at 4:30 PM. There are also four Bond Events between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM ant the Money Supply report at 4:30 PM.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have 12 companies reporting. Most notable are DAL and WBA which both report before the bell.

Action Plan

I said yesterday that a test of recent lows was not out of the question but holy cow I didn’t expect it would trigger such a massive run for the door. The VIX pretty much says it all having spiked 43.95% yesterday as fear turned to outright panic. The selling spread around the world like wildfire as Asian markets plunged and European markets sharply lower this morning. The pain continues this morning with US Futures pointing to gap down of more than 200 Dow points at the open.

So what is a retail trader to do in the midst of such technical damage? The only thing we can do, protect your capital and let it happen! Don’t fight it, and don’t try to predict it or your likely to have you’re head handed to you! The implied volatility increase in options will make them very challenging to trade. Market Makers will widen the bid/ask spreads and when a rally does occur I the IV will collapse making it very difficult to profit even if you are exactly right on direction and timing. The good news is selling of this magnitude will likely get at least this first leg of the correction over soon. Unfortunately, extremely high volatility is likely here to stay for the near future.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Road To Wealth Account Hit New Highs

October 11, 2018 by Rick Saddler

Road To Wealth Account Hit New Highs

Road To Wealth Account hit a new high yesterday and is on target to hit our year-end goal within the next few days. As of yesterdays close the account is up 364% this year. We have gone from $5,100.00 to $23.783.00; please keep reading.

Today we have decided not to post any trade ideas; we feel it is the best to focus and manage our own trading accounts and we will be in the trading rooms today giving our thoughts on the market now and the coming week. We are very loud about not chasing and waiting for the market/charts to come to you. Because of being prepared and listening to what the charts were saying we have positioned our account so that our risk is limited and the reward is in our favor.

Rounded Bottom Breakout Workshop and 30-Day Alert Bonus are filling up fast, Don’t miss out on a few of the tools that have produced 364% in our “Road To Wealth” Account year to date. WORKSHOP

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

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SPY • SP-500

The SPY found out Dotted Duece yesterday and will likely find the 200-SMA today.

We know yesterday was a hard day for some and a great day for others. I am happy to say that if you were a Hit and Run Candlestick member the past week, you are probably one of the happy ones. We have been “warning” and talking about lightning up on long positions and adding a few positions that you could benefit from if the market lost its mojo. Yes, that’s what we did, closed a few longs and bought VXX calls and SPY puts. We also lowered our position cost just as we mentioned in the trading room. By making a few adjustments and having little patients yesterday was a great day.

I assume you know about the “Trading For Wealth” Account if you can find it HERE. As of yesterdays close the account is up 364% this year. We have gone from $5,100.00 to $23.783.00

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****VXX – The VXX cut through our Dotted Duece and will likely challenge the 200-SMA today

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This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

10-9-18 e-Learning

October 10, 2018 by Ed Carter

Trading from the Beach…

The Best Job in the World

In this video, Rick Saddler discusses why trading is the best job in the world. He goes on to discuss current markets, using the T-line and T-Line Regression Lines to trade with success.

1 hour 14 minutes

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks or it’s associates should be considered as financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service

WRD Setup and Trade Plan

October 10, 2018 by Ed Carter

Today’s Featured Trade Idea is WRD.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews this setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern. For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

Note: Beware the overall market indecision. Indecisive candles with a short-term bear trend, long-term bull trend and support close below and resistance close above.

WRD broke out of its downtrend in September and is coming out of a recent Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. After the most recent strong bullish run, it has consolidated for a couple weeks, printing a couple Bullish signals during this time. This includes a quasi-Doji Continuation signal on the breakout Tuesday.

I will look for an inside day buy with a Stop blow the consolidation area bodies and Targets set off of Resistance levels above.

Trader Vision tells us that we should have about a month until WRD reports again. It also shows us that we have 4 Bullish conditions and 2 Bearish conditions in the chart setup. Both the bearish long-term symbol bias and the short-term market bias are expected with this chart and market. Also, the last 3 candles are not technically a Doji Continuation pattern but do convey the same sentiment.

TV20/20 tells us this plan offers a 2.22:1 Reward/Risk to the 1st Target, with a risk to Stop-out of $135. It also tells us the ticker must reach $26.43 in order to achieve our Trade Goal. Still, if we can sell half there and the rest at Target #2, we can achieve almost 3:1 Reward/Risk and book a $400 profit.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20. As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The WRD Trade Setup – As of 10-9-18

The Trade Plan

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you. Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, the risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions. Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade. It really takes the pressure off. No guesswork. No surprises. No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

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Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…

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Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover. It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not. It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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Tempory Stalemate?

October 10, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Temporary Stalemate?

Asia modestly higher overnight and European markets modestly lower the US Futures seem to have reached a temporary stalemate suggesting a flat open. I’m expecting an oddly slow and choppy morning with both the bulls and bears struggling to find inspiration. With the 4^th quarter earnings season perhaps they are simply content to wait with the potential interest rate increase impacts starting to weigh heavily on the mind of the market.

Certainly, a rally to test resistance is possible, but there seems to be an equal chance that a retest of recent lows. Stay very focused on price action as a stalemate like this can suddenly spring to life and is very susceptible to head fakes and whipsaws. With earnings season just around the corner, we should expect higher volatility to stick around for several weeks. Plan your risk carefully.

On the Calendar

Hump-day on Economic Calendar begins with the Mortgage Applications at 7:00 AM Eastern. At 8:30 PM the PPI at 10:00 AM expects a rise of only 0.2 percent for the September headline number. We have the Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations as well at Wholesale Trade number at 10:00 AM. A 3-yr Note Auction @ 11:30, Fed Speaker a@ 12:15 PM, 10-yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM, and another Fed Speaker at 6:00 PM to close the calendar day.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have eight companies reporting the most notable, FAST, stepping up before the bell today.

Action Plan

A very choppy day yesterday as the market seemed content to consolidate near recent lows as the market becomes increasingly concerned about the effects of the FOMC rate hikes. I think the bigger concern is that Earnings Season begins next week and companies have a lot of live up to at current valuations. As a result, increased volatility is likely over the next few weeks with big morning gaps and challenging price action.

With Asian markets having closed modestly higher across the board overnight and European markets currently down across the board, US Futures seem a bit confused as to what to do this morning. As I write this, the Dow Futures are currently dead flat. Perhaps the PPI number at 8:30 AM Eastern will give the market some inspiration, but as of now, I’m planning for a very slow and choppy morning. After that its anyone’s guess.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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