Election Results

November 7, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Election Results

Judging by the bullishness of the US Futures the market is pleased with the election results. At the open, the Dow will have recovered more than 1700 points in just 7-days to test its 50-day average as resistance. Truly an amazing accomplishment but raises the questions is it too much to fast and are we overextended in short-term? Only time will tell but be careful chasing the morning gap at the open in case profit-takers capitalize on the bullish windfall.

Expect very fast price action as the market turns its attention to the more than 1000 companies yet to report earnings results this week. Also, keep in mind that the FOMC begins its 2-day meeting today to adding some market stress as we wait for their decision on Thursday afternoon. A big gap like this can generate a lot of emotion and a fear of missing out. As a result, we need to stay focused on price action and disciplined to your rules to win the day.

On the Calendar

On the Earnings Calendar, we have more than 400 companies reporting earnings today. Expect considerable volatility as a result.

Action Plan

Finally, the mid-term elections are behind and although there were some major changes the US Futures indicate that the market is happy with the results. As of this moment, the Dow is pointing to a gap up of more than 150 points, but let’s remember that the more than 400 companies reporting earnings today could easily change that significantly before the open.

With the election out of the way, the market will once again focus on earnings results, trade negotiations and of course the FOMC which begins its 2-day meeting today. The morning gap will propel the DIA high enough to test its 50-day average as resistance. The SPY looks to recover it’s 200-day average this morning with the QQQ looking to open very close to its 200-day while the IWM lags significantly behind them all. As happy as the market appears this morning, please keep in mind that this recovery still has a tremendous amount of work to repair the technical damage in the charts. Expect very fast price action today and the potential of a pop and drop if profit takers capitalize on the big morning gap.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Bullish Morning Star Suggest FND bullish in the buy box or a tradable breakout, stop below $31.12

November 7, 2018 by Rick Saddler

Bullish Morning Star Suggest

Yesterday Bullish Morning Star suggest the bulls are interested it pushing price higher. FND was in bad shape until the bullish gap a few days ago. And with positive trading, the days following FND has become an RBB setup with about 37% to the RBB stretch target. I will add FND to the LTA-Live Trading Alerts Real Time Market Scanner for a buying alert. FND bullish in the buy box or a tradable breakout, stop below $31.12

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SPY • Bummer The Election is Over…LOL

Ok the results are in, now the market can do what it does best! At yesterdays close the bulls presented us with a Bullish Morning Star (type) pattern and an Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern. Based on the pre-market futures we are going to see bullish follow-through. And remember it’s more about how we draw our conclusions more from the close than anything during the day. Be warned the bulls still need to push through the daily 200-SMA and weekly 50-SMA.

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****VXX – Yesterday the VXX slid through the 200-SMA and closed weak, watch for a bounce.

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

FND Setup and Trade Plan

November 7, 2018 by Ed Carter

Today’s Featured Trade Idea is FND.

Be Careful: With the Fed Meeting on Wed-Thu and a lot of earnings the next couple days…markets will likely be volatile. Just remember the trend is still Bearish until we have a higher low and higher high.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews this setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern. For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

FND had been in a long-term downtrend. However, it reported earnings on 11/1, experiencing a violent and volatile reversal to break up into an RBB pattern. After consolidating for 2 days to retest the 50sma the next two days, the Bulls stepped in on Tuesday to form what can be seen as a Morning Star (and/or a Bullish Engulfing signal) on Tuesday.

I will look additional confirmation with an Entry above Tuesday’s High and a Stop below Tuesday’s Low and the 50sma. The Targets were chosen based on the Daily and Weekly charts.

Trader Vision shows us the earnings are out of the way, giving us 3 months until they come around again. It also shows us this trade setup has 2 Bullish and 3 Bearish conditions (should be 4 Bullish) as the Bearish pattern is a false read and while not technically a Bullish signal, it is close enough.

TV20/20 shows us that this Trade Plan offers moderate Risk to Stop ($170), but good potential Reward ($563) for a 3.31:1 Reward/Risk overall. However, it also tells us we can achieve the trade goal for this trade even before reaching the 1st Target. And if we do reach that 1st Target, we can get a 2.31:1 Reward/Risk at that point.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20. As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The FND Trade Setup – As of 11-6-18

The Trade Plan

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you. Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, the risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions. Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade. It really takes the pressure off. No guesswork. No surprises. No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

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Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover. It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not. It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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All about the Mid-Term

November 6, 2018 by Doug Campbell

All about the Mid-Term

All about the Mid-Term Everywhere I look I see another talking head trying to predict the outcome of the mid-term election. To be honest, that’s far easier to do that than trying to predict how the market will react to the results! What I can say with 100% certainty is that no one knows what that reaction will be and trying to trade it is straight up gambling. As traders, we all gamble from time to time but let’s be honest with ourselves and have our eyes wide open if you choose to do so today.

It’s highly likely the market will gap Wednesday morning substantially. Which means all trades held through the close today are at a higher than normal risk. If you do decide to add risk today, I suggest you keep the positions small to minimize the losses if your guess of the market reaction is incorrect. Also, keep in mind that you don’t have to play the guessing game! There is no shame in standing aside protecting your capital and waiting to trade the reaction when you have a better edge.

On the Calendar

On the Earnings Calendar, we have more than 350 companies reporting today. Keep checking and stay focused on the number of reports grows even more through Thursday.

Action Plan

Asian markets caught a bit of bounce last night but by the close finished mixed. European markets, however, are all slightly bearish this morning and that sentiment seems to have translated directly to the US Futures market. Although futures are currently suggesting a modestly lower open, that could easily change due to all the earnings reports. I would normally expect a considerable amount of volatility but with the market waiting on mid-term election results price action may be choppy and subdued.

While many are trying to predict the election outcome its impossible to know how the market will react. However, react it will, and likely with a big gap up or down on Wednesday morning increasing the risk of every position we hold. Carefully consider that risk if you plan to enter new positions today or carry any positions into the close today. As a result, it’s very unlikely that I will be trading today except for the possible quick intraday trade to take advantage of volatility and stave off the boredom of an election day market.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Bullish Candlestick Belt-Hold and RBB Setup PPC bullish in the buy box or above, Stop below $19.00.

November 6, 2018 by Rick Saddler

Bullish Candlestick Belt-Hold and RBB Setup

PPC is a Bullish Candlestick Belt-Hold and RBB Setup, PPC gapped down the other day and came back closing with a Belt-Hold and Bullish Engulf. The recent price action is a clue that buyers are in favor of PPC going higher. Right now we are looking at about a 20% trade. PPC bullish in the buy box or above, Stop below $19.00.

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SPY • Mid-Term election Day!

Finally mid-term election day, enough with those obnoxious ads that do nothing other than trash the other candidate.

So yesterday closed with a Spinning Top Doji inside day. Price also below the 200-SMA, the first order of business for the bulls will be to get price action above the 200-SMA, and the first order of business for the bears is to keep the price below the 200-SMA. Remember 80 of the stocks follow the SP-500

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****VXX – Is sitting on the 200-SMA, VXX is a great clue to market fear.

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PPC Setup and Trade Plan

November 6, 2018 by Ed Carter

Today’s Featured Trade Idea is PPC.

Be Careful: With elections today, Fed Meeting on Wed-Thu and a lot of earnings the next couple days…markets will likely be volatile. Just remember the trend is still Bearish until we have a higher low and higher high.

PPC has formed a bottom since about August 1, breaking into an RBB pattern on a huge Belthold / Bullish Engulfing signal on 11/1. After a day of mild, indecisive profit-faking it printed another Bull Engulf Monday. (It is technically no longer an RBB pattern because there is just less than 10% remaining between price and the 200sma. However, it is close enough for government work.)

I will look for it to prove it can break the 19.45 resistance and Enter with a tight Stop. Targets are defined off Daily/Weekly S/R levels above. Be aware it will need to break through the 200sma to reach Target #2.

Be cautious of the market with Elections today, the Fed on Wed.-Thur. and many Earnings to come this week.

TV20/20 tells us that this trade has Earnings out of the way. It also shows us this chart setup has 4 Bullish and only 2 Bearish conditions. (It could also be considered an RBB with 9.8% of space up to the 200sma left.)

TV20/20 also tells us this plan offers very low Risk ($70) with moderate gain potential ($225). This gives us better than 2:1 Reward/Risk at Target #1 and 3.2:1 at Target #2. If this can fit your goal per trade, this is a nice setup and plan to consider.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

The PPC Trade Setup – As of 11-5-18

The Trade Plan

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

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Call Options – Trade Planning E-Learning

November 5, 2018 by Doug Campbell

[img_text_aside style=”1″ image=”https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Call-options-thumbnail.jpg” image_alignment=”right” headline=”” alignment=”center”]In this E-Learning session we drilled into the details of planning Call Options trades, placing them and managing them in a disciplined way.

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Brave Face before the mid-term.

November 5, 2018 by Doug Campbell

Brave Face before the mid-term.

This morning the US Futures are trying to put on a brave face before the mid-term election indicating a bullish open. While the water may seem calm on the surface, there is likely significant turbulence lurking just below. Futures were lower most of the night so don’t rule out the possible test of the overnight lows during the day.

Combine trade war rhetoric, mid-term election, and nearly 1500 earnings reports this week, and the stage is set for fast price action and high volatility. After the morning pop wait to see if actual buyers step in to support the gap or if we have a replay of Friday’s pop and drop. As the old saying goes, patience is a virtue. In the current market condition, patience is also a critical skill every trader should endeavor to master. Wait for your edge to return! Remember Santa is coming to town, and his bullish presence historically begins mid to late November.

On the Calendar

On the Earnings Calendar, we have 270 companies reporting earnings today with nearly 1500 by the end of the week. Make sure your checking earnings dates against all current and proposed positions.

Acton Plan

We have an interesting market setup this morning. Asian markets were sharply lower across the board overnight with morning trade talk rhetoric coming from the leader. Across the pond, European markets are currently modestly higher across the board. US Futures that were pointing to losses most of the night are now pointing to a slightly bullish open but with the so many companies reporting earnings anything is possible. Although it’s nice to see a little bullishness this morning, I would not rule out the possibility of testing the overnight futures low sometime during the day as high volatility continues to challenge traders.

With the mid-term polls opening up tomorrow it is also possible that after the morning rush the price action could easily stall as we wait for election results. The market is very sensitive to any trade negotiation news, and we should expect significant price swings on good or bad news reports. I would not rule out another market pullback to test the October lows and high volatility to continue for the next couple of weeks. However, Santa is coming to town, and the recent pullback could open the door to nice rally later this month and into December. Be patient, stay focused and protect your capital until you have an edge.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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