Friday saw a modest rebound in the market.  SPY gapped up 0.51%, DIA gapped up 0.47%, and QQQ gapped up 0.59%.  From there all three major index ETFs gave us sideways chop along their opening level for the first 60 minutes.  However, after 10:30 a.m., markets ground slowly, but steadily, higher into 2:45 pm.  At that point, we saw modest profit-taking that led to a slight drift lower into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ both printed a gap-up, large body, white candle that crossed above their respective T-lines (8ema) while having small wicks on both ends.  DIA was less decisive, printing a gap-up, white Spinning Top candles that was also a Bullish Harami which retested, but failed to cross its own T-line.  None of the three retested their downtrends that stretch back to the all-time highs they reached in December.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were green as Technology (+1.86%) was more than half a percent in the lead, guiding the others higher.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-0.21%) was the only sector in the red and lagged other sectors by more than a third of a percent.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained 0.79%, and QQQ gained 1.64%.  VXX fell 5.85% to close at 44.10 and T2122 climbed out of its oversold territory to the center of its mid-range, closing at 46/15.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields continue their post-election rally to close up at 4.602% while Oil (WTI) rallied on the day to close at $73.96 per barrel.  So, Friday saw the Bulls rally as we headed into the weekend.  A gap higher and slow, steady rally took up most of the open outcry session.  This happened on average volume in the QQQ, as well as below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.

The major economic news scheduled Friday was limited to the December ISM Mfg. report.  The December ISM Manufacturing Employment Index was down to 45.3 (compared to a 48.0 forecast and a November 48.1 reading).  On the headline number, December ISM Mfg. PMI came in higher at 49.3 (versus a 48.2 forecast and the Nov. 48.4 value).  On the price side, the December ISM Mfg. Price Index was up to 52.5 (compared to a 51.5 forecast and November’s 50.3 number). 

In Fed news, on Friday, Richmond Fed President Barkin said he expects the US economy to grow in 2025 despite the risks and uncertainties posed by the incoming administration (and Trump’s previous threats of across-the-board tariffs and massive deportations).  However, Barkin did admit it is hard to predict the economic impact of Trump policies until we see what he actually does (as opposed to what he promised or threatened).  Barkin said, “I think there is more upside risk than downside risk (on inflation) given the economy’s continued strength and the possibility of renewed wage and other price pressures.”  He continued, “I put myself in the camp of wanting to stay restrictive for longer as opposed to the other school, which would be that we’re done (fighting inflation).”  Later, Fed Governor Kugler also said there was much uncertainty due to the change in administration.  She told CNBC that uncertainty has led to there being “a view that we can take our time, to slow down and be more gradual while watching the data (to see what actually shakes out from new fiscal policies).” However, she said, “(if the resilient jobs market does lose steam) we would be ready to act in a different direction.” … “We’re always responding (to the economy) and seeing what is happening in front of us.” 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  India (-1.62%) and Japan (-1.47%) were by far the biggest loser in the region while Taiwan (+2.79%) and South Korea (+1.91%) were far and away the biggest gainers.  In Europe, we see a much greener picture with 12 of the 14 bourses above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+2.16%), DAX (+1.35%), and lagging FTSE (+0.13%) lead the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher.  The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.84% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are “down” to 4.596% while Oil (WTI) is up 0.80% to $74.55 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to the December Federal Budget Balance at 2 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to CMC.  There are no reports scheduled for after the market close.

So far this morning, CMC beat on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get December Core PPI and Dec. PPI.  Then Wednesday, December Core CPI, December CPI, and NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index are reported.  On Thursday, we get December Core Retail Sales, Dec. Retila Sales, Dec. Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Dec. Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, Dec. Export Price index, Dec. Import Price Index, Nov. Business Inventories, and Nov. Retail Inventories.  Finally, on Friday, we get Preliminary Dec. Building Permits, Dec. Housing Starts, Dec. Industrial Production, and Nov. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from RPM and AIR.  Then Wednesday, AYI, ACI, HELE, MSM, RDUS, UNF, JEF, and PSMT report.  On Thursday, we hear from KBH.  Finally, on Friday, STZ, DAL, SNX, WBA, and WDFC report.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are running this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the premarket and have put in white-body candles since then. SPY and QQQ both are giving us large-body, small-wick white candles. However, DIA is more uncertain giving us a white Spinning Top but has at least crossed back above its T-line in the early session.  That being the case, the short-term trend is bullish. Looking further out, the premarket moves are testing the downtrend lines in the DIA and QQQ, but all three remain in a mid-term downtrend.  In the long-term, looking at higher-timeframe charts, the market remains in a strong bull trend.  In terms of extension, none of the three are extended from their T-line (8ema) based on the early session.  Meanwhile, T2122 sits in the center of its mid-range. So, the market has room to run either direction, but the Bulls have ground they want to recapture and a little momentum on their side. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in the green at this point of the morning. AMD (+2.88%) and NVDA (+2.61%) are out front leading the tech rally.  On the other end, NFLX (+0.02%%) is the laggard.  Once again, TSLA (+2.30%) is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded but only by 20% above NVDA in terms of dollars traded. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls tried to rebound Thursday…they tried.  SPY gapped up 0.87%, DIA gapped up 0.82%, and QQQ gapped up 0.88%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off.  SPY and DIA fell two-thirds of the way back across their gaps by 10:40 a.m. while QQQ completely recrossed its gap during the same time.  From there, SPY and DIA chopped up and down in their gaps all day.  (Well, SPY fell just below its gap the last few minutes of the day.)  Meanwhile, QQQ chopped along the bottom of its gap and then drove South the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us black candles with small upper wicks in all three major index ETFs.  All three remain below their T-line (8ema) while SPY retested its 50sma (and failed the test) from below. Also, while DIA printed an 11^th-straight black candle, it did break the streak of down candles at 10.  This all happened on just-above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Basic Materials (-0.94%) was way out front leading the way lower.  On the other side, Utilities (+0.79%) held up far better than any of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.03%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.45%. VXX spiked another 8.55% to close at 56.14 and T2122 climbed very slightly but remains at the bottom of its oversold territory to close at 0.93. On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to close down to 4.572% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.03% to close at $69.85 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw Bulls try to bounce back at the open.  However, it was a short-lived attempt as all three major index ETFs almost immediately fell back into the gap and ended the day very near their lows.

The major economic news scheduled Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in lower than expected at 220k (compared to a 229k forecast and well down from the prior week’s 242k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down to 1,874k (versus the 1,890k forecast and 1,879k prior week value).  At the same time, the Q3 Core PCE Price Index was down to 2.20% (still higher than the 2.10% forecast but well-down from Q2’s 2.80% reading).  Meanwhile, the Q3 GDP (Quarter-on-Quarter) was up to 3.1% (compared to a 2.8% forecast and even up from Q2’s 3.0% value).  On the price side, the Q3 GDP Price Index was down to 1.9% (in-line with the 1.9% forecast but far down from Q2’s 2.5% reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was down to -16.4 (versus a +2.9 forecast and the November -5.5 value).  In terms of employment, the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was down to 6.6 (compared to November’s 8.6 reading).  Later, Nov. Existing Home Sales were higher than anticipated at 4.15 million (versus a 4.09 million forecast and well up from October’s 3.96 million number).  At the same time, the Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index was up sharply to +0.3% (compared to a -0.1% forecast and up sharply from October’s -0.4% value).  At the close, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions were down to $152.3 billion (versus September’s $216.1 billion).  Then after the close, Fed’s Balance Sheet was down $8 billion on the week from $6.897 trillion to $6.889 trillion. 

After the close, NKE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, BB, FDX and AVO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  (AVO missed massively on revenue and beat massively on earnings.)  However, SCHL missed on both the opt and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly all red.  Only New Zealand (+1.18%) bucked the trend as the other 11 exchanges were under water.  Taiwan (-1.84%), India (-1.52%), and Australia (-1.24%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a clean sweep by the Bears at midday.  The CAC (-1.22%), DAX (-1.50%), and FTSE (-0.87%) lead that region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 87:20 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower as Republicans killed the negotiated CR deal on Elon Musk (and later Trump’s) order.  Then they flat out failed to produce any alternative.  So, the US government is set to shutdown tonight.  (Asia tanked on that news and Europe followed.  So, the best guess is that is why we are headed lower to start the day as well.)  The DIA implies a -0.54% open, the SPY is implying a -0.98% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.56% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are “down” to 4.536% and Oil (WTI) is off one percent to $68.70 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, and Nov. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CCL and WGO.  Then, after the market, there are no reports scheduled. Also, don’t forget that today is triple witching, with stock options, stock index options, and stock index futures all expiring.

So far this morning, WGO missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like more blood in the streets is in order for Friday.  All three major index ETFs gapped significantly lower to start the premarket.  All three have also followed-through with black-bodied candles with small upper wicks since that start.  That being the case, the short-term trend is very, very bearish. Looking further out, all three have now broken their daily mid-term uptrend lines, but have not yet formed bearish trends.  In the long-term, looking at higher-timeframe charts, this is nothing but a blip in a strong bull trend.  In terms of extension, all three are very extended below their T-line (8ema) based on the early session.  Meanwhile, T2122 is also deep in its oversold territory.  (Less than a point from that indicator’s theoretical oversold limit.) So, the Bulls certainly have reversion to the mean on their side.  However, the Bears have all the momentum and the news cycle in their corner.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in significant red numbers at this point of the morning. TSLA (-4.99%) is way out front leading the tech selloff.  On the other end, AAPL (-1.13%) and MSFT (-1.15%) are holding up best.  Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 3 times over NVDA (with the next closest 5 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA).  Finally, remember its Friday…payday…and time to prepare for the weekend news cycles. Also, be aware of triple witching activity in the afternoon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, markets started out little changed.  SPY opened 0.04% lower, DIA opened 0.09% higher, and QQQ opened down 0.14%.  From there all three major index ETFs rallied the first hour and then wobbled sideways until 2 p.m.  Then the Fed news started coming out and all three sold off sharply and continuously until a tiny bounce at the end of the day.  This action gave us huge black candles and what could be called Bearish Trader’s Best Friend in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. SPY and QQQ both crossed below their T-line (8ema), with SPY and DIA both also crossing below their 50sma.  For DIA, this was a 10^th consecutive black candle and lower close in the DIA.  That is the first time this has happened since 1974.  This all took place on well-above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the red as Consumer Cyclical (-3.80%) led the way lower.  (However, half the sectors lost more than 3%.)  On the other side, it was Tuesday’s big loser, Communications Service (-1.79%) held up better than any of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 2.98%, DIA lost 2.61%, and QQQ lost 3.61%. VXX spiked 16.78% to close at 51.72 and T2122 fell all the way down to the bottom of its oversold territory to close at 0.82. On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields spiked higher to close down to 4.504% while Oil (WTI) was flat to close at $70.00 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday, the market was all about the Fed…and the market was not pleased with what it heard (see below).  What had started as a modestly bullish day after the modest morning rally turned into a bloodbath the last two hours of the day. 

The major economic news scheduled Wednesday included Preliminary Nov. Building Permits, which came in higher than expected at 1.505 million (compared to a forecast of 1.430 million and an October reading of 1.419 million). At the same time, Q3 Current Account was down again to -$310.90 billion (versus a forecast of -$286.0 billion and a Q2 -$275.0 billion number).  Meanwhile, Nov. Housing Starts were down coming in at 1.289 million (compared to the 1.350 million forecast and October’s 1.312 million value).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Inventories showed a smaller-than-predicted drawdown of 0.934 million barrels (versus a forecasted 1.600-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 1.425-million-barrel draw).  Then at 2 p.m., the Fed Interest Rate Decision was a quarter-point cut as anticipated, down to 4.50% compared to the previous 4.75%.  At the same time, Fed Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection was stable at 4.4% while the Q4 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection spiked half a percent to 3.9% (up from the prior quarter’s 3.4%).  Looking further out, the Fed Q4 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection also rose to 3.4% (from the previous value of 2.9%) while the Q4 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection rose less to 3.1% (compared to the previous 2.9% value).  Far out on the horizon, the Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection rose a tick to 3.0% (versus the previous quarter’s 2.9% forecast).

In Fed news, as mentioned, the FOMC cut rates a quarter percent as the market had expected.  However, at the same time as the rate-cut announcement, updates to the Fed “Dot Plots” (average of FOMC member interest rate forecasts) showed that they now only expect two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, with Fed Funds ending 2025 at 4.00%.  It also showed they expect 2024 inflation (PCE inflation rate) to come in at 2.4% and 2025 to ends at 2.5%.  Later, in his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said it is too soon to tell what the new Trump Administration will do to the economy.  When questioned about it, Powell said, “it’s very premature to make any kind of conclusions. We don’t know what will be tariffed, from what countries, for how long, in what size …We need to take our time, not rush and see what the new president delivers.” (Trump campaigned on heavy tariffs, which would be hugely inflationary as well as being economically restrictive.  On the other hand, he also campaigned on more tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which would theoretically lead to economic expansion…but lead to an increased deficit.  However, Trump is not known for telling the truth or being consistent. So, time will tell.)  Powell went on to say, “From this point forward it’s appropriate to move forward cautiously and look for progress on inflation … from now we are in place where the risks are in balance.”

After the close, MLKN and SCS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line.  Meanwhile, MU missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, LEN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red in sympathy with the US.  Shenzhen (+0.61%) was the only appreciable gainer (Malaysia at +0.03% did also hang onto green).  On the other side, South Korea (-1.95%), Australia (-1.70%), and Thailand (-1.53%) led the broad-based losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  Only Portugal (+0.33%) is in the green as 13 of the 14 bourses are red at midday.  The CAC (-1.54%), DAX (-1.22%), and FTSE (-1.39%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, at of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest rebound to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.32% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.23% open at this early hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields continue to run higher at 4.534% while Oil (WTI) is off 0.21% to $70.43 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), Nov. Existing Home Sales and Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index (both at 10 a.m.), Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 p.m.), and the Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, and PAYX.  Then, after the market, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.

So far this morning, ACN beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, LW missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market seems to be trying to bounce off of the huge drops on Thursday.  However, this is a very indecisive bounce with all three major index ETFs giving a premarket modest gap up, but then printing mostly wicks and little body in the early session candles. After Thursday, all three are far below their T-line (8ema).  That being the case, the short-term trend is bearish. However, looking further out, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, SPY and especially DIA are stretched below their T-line at this point. (Having been the strongest prior to Thursday’s move, QQQ is not quite as stretched.) Meanwhile, T2122 is deep in its oversold territory.  (Less than a point from that indicator’s theoretical oversold limit.) So, the Bulls certainly have room to run today. However, coming off the Fed reduction in predicted future cuts, the Bears have the momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning. TSLA (+2.43%) and NVDA (+1.92%) are leading the group higher.  On the other end, AAPL (-0.21%) is the laggard in the bounce. Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 3 times over NVDA (with the next closest 8 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA). 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower on Tuesday.  SPY gapped down 0.42%, DIA gapped down 0.49%, and QQQ gapped down 0.33%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered around their opening level, but DIA was the weakest, never quite getting back to the open in the afternoon.  (It is worth noting this was DIA’s nineth-consecutive black, candle and down day…its worst streak since 1978.)  This action gave us Doji-like, indecisive candles in all three.  QQQ was the best-looking candle, printing a black, Spinning Top of Doji-like candle that was also a Bearish Harami (inside day).  At the same time, SPY gapped down below its T-line (8ema) and retested and failed that level on the way to printing a Doji.  Finally, DIA made a big gap-down, black-bodied Spinning Top candle that retested its 50sma and closed above.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Communications Services (-1.13%) and Financial Services (-1.07%) leading the way lower.  On the other side, Healthcare (+0.16%) held up better than any of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.41%, DIA lost 0.65%, and QQQ lost 0.44%.  VXX climbed 2.48% to close at 44.29 and T2122 dropped back into the bottom of its oversold territory to close at 6.09.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields reversed after an overnight move higher to close down to 4.397% while Oil (WTI) dropped 0.74% to close at $70.19 per barrel.  So, on Tuesday, the market was all about the open. After that start, all three major index ETFs just meandered in waves back-and-forth across the opening level.  This all happened on not far below-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included Nov. Month-on-Month Core Retail Sales, which came in flat at +0.2% (compared to a +0.4% forecast but in-line with October’s +0.2% reading). On the headline side, Nov. Month-on-Month Retail Sales were up +0.7% (higher than the +0.6% forecast and October’s +0.5% number).  Later, the Nov. Month-on-Month Industrial Production was up but still down at -0.1% (versus the +0.3% forecast but better than October’s -0.4% value).  On an annualized basis, Nov. Year-on-Year Industrial Production were down at -0.90% (compared to a forecasted +0.10% and worse than October’s -0.45% reading).  Later, Oct. Business Inventories were up +0.1% (versus the forecasted +0.2% and September’s flat 0.0%).  At the same time, Oct. Retail Inventories were steady at +0.1% (compared to the forecast and prior month value of +0.1%).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed an unexpectedly large 4.700-million-barrel drawdown (versus a forecasted 1.850-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s 0.499-million-barrel inventory build).

In Fed news, the Fed quiet period ends Wednesday with the rate decision, statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference.  So, no Fed news Tuesday.

After the close, HEI reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the green side with seven of the 12 exchanges above break-even while another was unchanged.  South Korea (+1.12%) was by far the biggest mover and gainer.  On the other side, Japan (-0.72%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the market outlook is brighter with 12 of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.27%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTSE (+0.15%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are now pointing to a moderate gap up to start the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.30% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are back up to 4.413% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.86% to $70.68 per barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include Preliminary Nov. Building Permits, Q3 Current Account, and Nov. Housing Starts (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection (all at 2 p.m.), and the FOMC Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABM, BIRK, GIS, JBL, and TTC.   Then, after the market, LEN, MU, MLKN, SCS, and WS report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, Nov. Existing Home Sales, Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, PAYX, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.

So far this morning, AMTM beat on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market seems bullish so far in the premarket early session as more than 95% of Fed Fund Futures trades are expecting a quarter-point cut this afternoon.  All three major index ETFs gapped up to open the premarket and have followed through with white-bodied candles to this point.  SPY has crossed back above its T-line (8ema) and QQQ is headed back toward its all-time high.  With two of the three above their T-line and one below its 8ema, the short-term trend has to be seen as weakly bullish.  However, further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish with index ETFs sitting near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, yesterday’s pullback helped the T-line make up some ground on the QQQ and this morning’s premarket move higher is helping DIA relieve some of its stretch to the downside.  So, none of them are overly extended from the 8ema.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is deep in its oversold territory.  So, the Bulls have more room to run today. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning. NVDA (+2.76%) is far and away the leader of the group.  On the other end, TSLA (-1.94%) is the biggest loser by 1.80%.  Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 1.75 times over NVDA (with the next closest 15 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA). 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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