The market was volatile Monday, seemingly over-reacting to Trump’s tariffs and then bouncing hard (perhaps in an over-reaction to Trump calls with Mexico and Canada and pushing back Mexican tariffs a month).  SPY gapped down 1.51%, DIA gapped down 1.28%, and QQQ gapped down 1.76%.  All three major index ETFs did a momentary bound and then followed through to the downside, reaching the lows of the day at 10:20a.m.  At that point, all three spiked hard to the upside for about 20-25 minutes before starting a sideways chop with a slight bullish trend.  That slight bullish trend lasted until 3 p.m. when we saw a modest selloff across SPY, DIA, and QQQ the last hour.  This action gave us huge gap-down white-body candles with significant wicks on both ends of the candles.  All three gapped below their T-line (8ema) with only DIA retesting from below and failing its retest.  SPY and QQQ also gapped down below their 50sma, retested from below and closed just above and below that level respectively.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-1.29%), Industrials (-1.23%), and Technology (-1.18%) out front leading the market lower. On the other side, Communications Services (+0.46%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.67%, DIA lost 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.80%. Meanwhile VXX gained another 2.15% to close at 45.07 while T2122 dropped all the way back into the top of its oversold range to close at 18.52.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields closed at 4.563% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.32% to close at $72.76 per barrel.  So, Monday was all about market reaction to Trump’s tariffs and then talks and pushing them off temporarily. This all happened on above-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The major economic news on Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI came in higher than expected at 51.2 (compared to a 50.1 forecast and a December 49.4 reading).  A few minutes later, Dec. Construction Spending also came in stronger than predicted at +0.5% (versus a +0.3% forecast and November’s +0.2%).  At the same time, ISM Mfg. PMI was strong at 50.9 (compared to a 49.3 forecast and the December 49.2 value).  On jobs, ISM Mfg. Employment were up strongly to 50.3 (versus a 47.8 forecast and a 45.4 December reading).  In terms of prices, the ISM Mfg. Price Index were also up to 54.9 (compared to a 52.6 forecast and December’s 52.5 value).

In Fed news, on Monday Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the FOMC may need to wait “for a while” on any further rate cuts as the new Administration’s policies make the economic outlook much less certain.  Bostic said, “I want to be cautious and I don’t want to have our policy lean in one direction based on an assumption the economy is going to evolve a certain way, then have to turn it around.”  He also cited waiting on seeing what impact 2024’s (one percent) cut will have, saying, “I want to see what the reduction that we did at the end of last year translates to in terms of the economy, and it could—depending on what the data are—mean that we are waiting for a while.”  Elsewhere, Boston Fed President Collins told CNBC, “The kind of broad-based tariffs that were announced over the weekend, one would expect to have an impact on prices … with broad-based tariffs, you actually would not only see increases in prices of final goods, but also a number of intermediate goods.”  However, she went on to point out that there isn’t a lot of experience with broad-based tariffs in the modern economy (because administrations from both parties have realized they don’t work and are both a tax on US citizens and inflationary for at least 85 years).  Both emphasized with the unpredictable and unstable policy approach of the Trump administration, the extent of the inflationary impact is unknowable until we learn how tariff implementation, US competitor pricing response, and counter-tariff responses play out.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, CLX, EQR, FN, NXPI, PLTR, and DOC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, KD and WWD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CBT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with half the exchanges green and half red. Hong Kong (+2.83%) and India (+1.62%) paced the gains while Shenzhen (-1.33%) was by far the biggest loser.  In Europe, we a similar picture taking shape at midday but slightly more of the bourses lean toward the red side.  The CAC (+0.22%), DAX (-0.04%, and FTSE (-0.12%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat open after Trump back-tracked on tariffs for both Mexico and Canada and announced he will hold a similar call with China’s President Xi.  The DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a dead flat open, and the QQQ implies a +0.21% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are back up to 4.577% and Oil (WTI) has dropped 2.17% to $71.57 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday are limited to Dec. Factory Orders and Dec. JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.), and the API Weekly Crude Stocks Report (4:30 p.m.) and we hear from Fed members Bostic (11 a.m.) and Daly (1:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMCR, AME, APO, ARMK, ADM, ATI, ATKR, AXTA, BALL, BERY, CNC, CNH, CMI, ENR, EPD, EL, RACE, FOXA, IT, GPK, HUBB. INGR, J, KKR, LANC, MPC, MRK, MPLX, PYPL, PNR, PEP, PFE, REGN, SPOT, TDG, UBS, WEC, WTW, and XYL.  Then after the close, AMD, ALGT, GOOGL, DOX, AFG, AMGN, ATO, CSL, CRUS, COLM, DXC, EA, ENVA, FMC, GOOG, THG, JKHY, JNPR, LUMN, MTCH, MAT, MOD, MDLZ, NOV, OI, OMC, OSCR, PRU, SPG, SKY, SNAP, UNM, and WU report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Dec. Exports, Dec. Imports, Dec. Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and we hear from Fed member Bowman.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed members Waller and Daly.  Finally, Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Wednesday, ARCC, ARES, BSX, BG, CPRI, CDW, COR, EMR, EQNR, EVR, FSV, FI, GSK, GFF, HOG, IEX, ITW, JCI, NYT, NVO, ODFL, PFGC, REYN, RXO, SR, SWK, TROW, TKR, TM, UBER, VSH, DIS, AFL, ALGN, ALL, ARM, ASGN, AVB, EQH, BV, CENT, CTSH, COHR, CPAY, CTVA, CCK, DLX, ENS, ENSG, NVST, PLUS, F, GL, HI, HOLX, ITUB, KMPR, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, MUSA, NWSA, ORLY, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RRX, SWKS, STE, SNEX, SU, TTMI, UHAL, UGI, VLTO, WFRD, and WEX report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, ZBH, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN.  Finally, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, APO, AXTA, CNC, ENR, EL, IT, INGR, J, KKR, MPC, MRK, PYPL, PNR, PFE, PJT, REGN, TDG, UBS, and XYL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AMCR, AME, ARMK, ATKR, BALL, EPD, MPLX, PEP, and WTW all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, SPOT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CNH, GPK, and WEC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is rethinking the tariff selloff and rebound. All three major index ETFs are more flat this morning, printing smaller premarket candles and reversing their initial early session move. DIA is just below and looking to retest its T-line while QQQ did retest and then backed off.  As a result, all three remain below their 8ema.  So, the short-term trend remains bearish.  The mid-term downtrend (if you want to call it a trend) remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, all three are back close below their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 is just inside of its oversold territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum, but the Bulls may have a little more slack to work with today.  In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green with AMA (+1.38%) out in front leading the pack higher.  On the other side, AAPL (-0.42%) is the laggard and only one of the 10 in the red.  As far as liquidity goes, TSLA (+0.44%) and NVDA (+0.38%) are neck-and-neck and both have traded about 4.5 times as much as the next most liquid ticker.  However, take note that it is a very light premarket volume overall.  

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw a gap higher, some midday divergence, a sideways grind and then a Trump Tariff selloff.  SPY afternoon gapped up 0.41%, DIA gapped up 0.30%, and QQQ gapped up 0.71%. At that point, both SPY and QQQ continued to rally until 11:15 a.m.  From there, both ground sideways in a tight range until 1 p.m.  However, then Trump’s Whitehouse announced major tariffs will kick in against Canada, Mexico, and to a lesser extend China on Saturday.  This caused the sharpest move of the day, which was a selloff that lasted into the close.  Meanwhile, after its gap higher, DIA faded its gap immediately before grinding sideways in a very tight range along the previous close until 1p.m.  Unfortunately, just like the other major index ETF.s the Trump tariff news drove a strong selloff the last three hours of the day.  This action gave us large black-body candles in all three.  SPY and QQQ had significant upper wicks, but all three closed near their lows.  SPY was the only one of the three to (barely) cross below its T-line (8ema) although the other two are close above that level.  SPY and DIA both printed Bearish Engulfing candles.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.26%) way out front, by more than a percent, leading the market lower. On the other side, Technology (-0.11%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.53%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ lost 0.15%. Meanwhile VXX gained 3.37% to close at 44.12 while T2122 dropped all the way back to just below its centerline to close at 43.86.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields rose to 4.549% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.02% to close at $73.46 per barrel.  So, Friday was literally an up-sideways-and-the-down day for the market. The only thing that seems certain is that the market doesn’t like the uncertainty caused by Trump’s protectionist approach to trade (high tariffs).  This all happened on average volume in DIA and above-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

The major economic news on Friday included the Month-on-Month December Core PCE Price Index, which came in as expected at +0.2% (compared to a +0.2% forecast but up a tick from November’s +0.1% value).  On an annualized basis, the Year-on-Year December Core PCE Price Index was flat at +2.8% (versus a +2.8% forecast and November reading).  For the headline number, the Month-on-Month December PCE Price Index was up as predicted to +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but up from November’s +0.1% number).  Annualized, the Year-on-Year December PCE Price Index was also up as anticipated at +2.6% (versus a +2.6% forecast and November +2.4% value).  Meanwhile, Month-on-Month December Personal Spending was up to +0.7% (compared to a +0.5% forecast and the November +0.6% reading).  At the same time, the Q4 Employment Cost Index showed an increase to +0.9% (in-line with the +0.9% forecast but up a tick from Q3’s +0.8% number).  Later, Chicago PMI was a bit lower than expected at 39.5 (compared to the 40.3 forecast but up from December’s 36.9 value).

In Fed news, on Friday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC the PCE data released was “a bit better than he expected” and it “gives him comfort that inflation is on a path to the 2% target.”  However, he went on to say that he is worried about Trump’s tariffs, saying “there is a question mark that is coming from policy uncertainty.”  Goolsbee went on to clarify “If it affects prices, it affects us … our signal is getting a little muddied, when things (like tariffs) are happening that drive up prices. … we’re going to have to figure out which part of the inflation is the part that monetary policy should look through and which part is a sign of the economy.”

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board on fears over Trump’s new trade war.  Taiwan (-3.53%), Japan (-2.66%), and South Korea (-2.52%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see exactly the same picture taking shape with all 14 bourses in the red at midday.  The CAC (-1.62%), DAX (-1.68%), and FTSE (-1.29%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower to start Monday. The DIA implies a -1.36% open, the SPY is implying a -1.52% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.72% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 4.506% and Oil (WTI) has spiked 2.62% to $74.43 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), Dec. Construction Spending, ISM Mfg. PMI, ISM Mfg. Employment, and ISM Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.).  We also head from Fed member Bostic (12:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARLP, IDXX, LVRO, SAIA, and TSN.  Then after the close, BRBR, CBT, CLX, EQR, EG, FN, KD, NXPI, PLTR, DOC, and WWD report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Dec. Factory Orders, Dec. JOLTs Job Openings, API Weekly Crude Stocks report and we hear from Fed members Bostic and Daly.  Then Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Dec. Exports, Dec. Imports, Dec. Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported and we hear from Fed member Bowman.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed members Waller and Daly.  Finally, Friday, Jan. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Jan. Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan. Participations Rate, Jan. Unemployment Rate, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and Dec. Consumer Credit are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AMCR, AME, APO, ARMK, ADM, ATI, ATKR, AXTA, BALL, BERY, CNC, CNH, CMI, ENR, EPD, EL, RACE, FOXA, IT, GPK, HUBB. INGR, J, KKR, LANC, MPC, MRK, MPLX, PYPL, PNR, PEP, PFE, REGN, SPOT, TDG, UBS, WEC, WTW, XYL, AMD, ALGT, GOOGL, DOX, AFG, AMGN, ATO, CSL, CRUS, COLM, DXC, EA, ENVA, FMC, GOOG, THG, JKHY, JNPR, LUMN, MTCH, MAT, MOD, MDLZ, NOV, OI, OMC, OSCR, PRU, SPG, SKY, SNAP, UNM, and WU.  Then Wednesday, ARCC, ARES, BSX, BG, CPRI, CDW, COR, EMR, EQNR, EVR, FSV, FI, GSK, GFF, HOG, IEX, ITW, JCI, NYT, NVO, ODFL, PFGC, REYN, RXO, SR, SWK, TROW, TKR, TM, UBER, VSH, DIS, AFL, ALGN, ALL, ARM, ASGN, AVB, EQH, BV, CENT, CTSH, COHR, CPAY, CTVA, CCK, DLX, ENS, ENSG, NVST, PLUS, F, GL, HI, HOLX, ITUB, KMPR, MCK, MET, MAA, MOH, MUSA, NWSA, ORLY, CNXN, PTC, QGEN, QCOM, RRX, SWKS, STE, SNEX, SU, TTMI, UHAL, UGI, VLTO, WFRD, and WEX report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, AGCO, APD, AB, APTV, MT, ARW, AZN, BCE, BDX, BDC, OWL, BWA, BMY, CX, CMS, CIGI, COP, DAR, LLY, ENTG, EFX, GTES, HP, HSY, HLT, HON, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, ITT, K, KVUE, LH, LEA, LNC, LIN, MKL, MMS, MDU, NVT, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PTON, PM, RL, RITM, RBLX, SNA, SPB, TPR, TEX, TRI, UAA, WMG, XEL, XPO, YUM, YUMC, ZBH, AMRK, AFRM, AMZN, ATR, BYD, CNO, EHC, EXPE, LION, FTNT, FBIN, G, HUBG, ILMN, MTD, MCHP, MTX, MHK, MPWR, NBIX, OTEX, PINS, POST, PFG, RGA, SKX, SONO, SSNC, TTWO, VSAT, and WERN.  Finally, on Friday, AVTR, CBOE, ROAD, FLO, FTV, ULCC, GPRE, KIM, NWL, PAA, PAGP report.

So far this morning, IDXX SAIA, and TSN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, ARLP missed on both the top and bottom lines.  

With that background, it looks like the Trump tariff tumble is on in the market.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket with a significant gap lower.  From there, all three have printed large black-body candles with only QQQ even attempting a move higher.  As a result, all three are well below their T-line (8ema) with SPY and QQQ even a bit stretched below that level.  So, the short-term trend is bearish.  The mid-term downtrend remains a mess.  In terms of extension, as mentioned, SPY and QQQ are stretched below the T-line and DIA is headed that direction.  Meanwhile, T2122 is just below its mid-point.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  However, the Bears have are already showing momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in the red with NVDA (-4.17%) out in front leading the pack lower.  On the other side, NFLX (-1.20%) is holding up best among that group. As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads there too followed closely by TSLA, which has traded six times as much as the next closest Big Dog. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a little divergence at the opening bell.  SPY gapped up 0.36%, DIA opened 0.14% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.57%. From that point, SPY and QQQ bounced back-and-forth across their gaps all day while DIS spent the day copping sideways above its opening gap.  The most notable move was a 15-minute hard selloff at 3:30 p.m., which was met by a lesser 15-minute rebound rally to end the day.  (That was a market-wide reaction to President Trump again threatening tariffs on Canada and Mexico.)  This action gave us long-legged Doji-type candles in SPY and QQQ as well as a Bullish Engulfing candle with upper wick in the DIA.  Once again, this all happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Utilities (+2.41%) way out front leading the gainers.  On the other side, Communications Services (-2.02%) was the only red sector and lagged all other sectors by 2.87%.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.54%, DIA gained 0.37%, and QQQ gained 0.43%. Meanwhile VXX fell slightly again to close at 42.68 while T2122 popped back up into its overbought territory to close at 89.47.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to 4.524% and Oil (WTI) gained seven-tenths of a percent to t $73.14 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw markets shake off lower-than-expected Q4 GDP (perhaps because Q4 GDP Price Index was also lower than expected). 

The major economic news on Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in below expectations at 207k (compared to a 224k forecast and the prior week’s 223k reading).  For the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down to 1,858k (versus a 1,890k forecast and the prior week’s 1,900k value).  At the same time, Preliminary Q4 Core PCE Prices were reported as predicted at 2.50% (compared toa 2.50% forecast and up sharply from Q3’s 2.20% reading).  Meanwhile, Preliminary Q4 GDP was down sharply to 2.3% (versus a 2.7% forecast and the 3.1% Q3 reading).  On the price side, the Preliminary Q4 GDP Price Index was also lower than anticipated at 2.2% (versus a 2.5% forecast but up from Q3’s 1.9% value).  Later, December Pending Home Sales were down SHARPLY at -5.5% (compared to a forecast of being flat and November’s +1.6%).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a decline of $14 billion for the week, falling to $6.818 trillion.

After the close, AAPL, AJG, TEAM, BKR, TBBK, BOOT, CACC, DECK, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, RMD, SKYW, X, and V all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EMN and WY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CNI, PFSI, and PPG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, although China remained closed for Lunar New Year.  India (+1.11%) led the gainers while South Korea (-0.77%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape with 12 of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.68%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTSE (+0.35%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move higher to start the morning (ahead of data).  The DIA implies a +0.34% open, the SPY is implying a +0.47% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.79% open at this hour.  At the same time, 110-Year Bond Yields are back up to 4.527% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $72.63 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes December PCE Price Index, December PCE Price Index, and December Personal Spending, and Q4 Employment Cost Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABBV, AON, ARCB, ALV, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEPC, BEP, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CL, ETN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, JHG, LYB, NVS, OMF, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, and GWW.  Then after the close, there are no reports scheduled. 

So far this morning, ABBV, ARCB, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEP, CHTR, CHD, NVS, OMF, and PSX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AON, ALV, CL, ETN, XOM, LYB, RVTY, and VSTS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, CVX beat on revenue but missed on earnings.    

With that background, markets look bullish ahead of the PCE data.  All three major index ETFs gapped higher to open the premarket and all three have printed white-body candles since that point.  With that said, all three are above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is bullish.  The mid-term downtrend remains a mess with only DIA showing a definitive trend (bullish).  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended but DIA is starting to get to that point.  Meanwhile, T2122 is back in the middle of its overbought territory.  So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  However, the Bears have a little more material to work with Friday.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green again with AAPL (+4.05%) way out in front leading the gains.  On the other side, NVDA (-1.31%) lags far behind the other big dogs.  As far as liquidity goes NVDA leads the way, having traded almost 1.5 times more than AAPL on a VERY low dollar-volume premarket session.  Do not forget it is Friday and month-end.  So, prepare your account for the weekend and remember to pay yourself.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened basically flat Wednesday.  SPY opened 0.14%, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ opened up 0.10%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways until 2 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off for 30 minutes after the Fed rate decision, rallied for 30 minutes and then restarted its sideways chop, which continued into the close.  This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles in all three. SPY and DIA printed black-bodied Spinning Top candles.  SPY closed just pennies above its T-line (8ema) after a retest from above. For its part, QQQ printed a black Hammer candle that retested the T-line from below and failed that test while still closing in the top part of its candle.  This all happened on below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, five of the 10 of the sectors were in the red with Healthcare (-0.59%) out in front of the losers while Communications Services (+0.49%) paced the five gainers.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.45%, DIA lost 0.27%, and QQQ lost 0.19%. Meanwhile VXX fell slightly to close at 42.91 while T2122 dropped further back into the top of the mid-range to close at 61.68.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields stayed flat at 4.538% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.15%, closing at $72.92 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday we saw a long wait for the Fed, a knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC decision and then more drift sideways.  It remains unclear whether traders are waiting on earnings, GDP, or the PCE inflation data…or maybe even the fallout from Trump’s policies. Still, it certainly feels like traders are waiting on something.

The major economic news on Wednesday included the Preliminary December Goods Trade Balance, which came worse than expected at -$122.11 billion (compared to a -$105.60 billion forecast and November’s -$103.50 billion value).  At the same time, Preliminary December Retail Inventories were down to +0.2% (versus November’s +0.4% reading).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger inventory build than predicted at +3.463 million barrels (compared to a +2.200-million-barrel forecast and the previous week’s 1.017-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, as had been expected by 99.5% of Fed Fund Futures traders, the FOMC held rates steady at 4.25% – 4.50% despite President Trump’s demand last week that interest rates “be lowered immediately.”  The FOMC statement added a slightly more optimistic view of the labor market, but removed its mention that progress had been made on inflation.  The statement said, “The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid,” and added “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”  Later, during his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said, “I would say we’re (Fed Funds rates are) meaningfully above it [neutral].” He continued, “(However,) I have no illusion that anyone knows precisely how much (above) that is but having cut 100 basis points means that it’s appropriate that we not be in a hurry to make further adjustments.”

After the close, AMP, NLY, BHE, CLS, FIBK, LRCX, LEVI, MTH, META, MSFT, RJF, TER, TTEK, and WDC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AXS, CHRW, CP, CCS, IBM, LBRT, NFG, NOW, and WHR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, LSTR, SEIC, and URI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CMPR, LVS, RHI, SIGI, and TSLA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest trading. South Korea (+0.85%) led the region’s gainers while Thailand (-0.56%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are also mostly green (with two exceptions out of the 14) at midday.  The CAC (+0.60%), DAX (+0.23%), and FTSE (+0.47%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:50 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the say.  The DIA implies a -0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.45% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 4.494% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $72.59 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Core PCE Prices, Preliminary Q4 GDP, and Preliminary Q4 GDP Price Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), December Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FLWS, AOS, MO, ABG, AVY, BBVA, BX, BFH, BC, CAH, CRS, CAT, CHKP, CI, CMCSA, CFR, DOV, DOW, IP, KEX, LHX, LAZ, MAN, MMC, MA, MBLY, MUR, NOK, NOC, OSK, PH, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, SNY, SCSC, SNDR, SHW, SIRI, LUV, STM, TMO, TSCO, TT, UPS, and VLO. Then after the close, AAPL, AJG, TEAM, BKR, BOOT, CNI, CACC, DECK, EMN, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, PFSI, PPG, RMD, SKYW, X, V, and WY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, December PCE Price Index, December PCE Price Index, December Personal Spending, Q4 Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ABBV, AON, ARCB, ALV, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEPC, BEP, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CL, ETN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, JHG, LYB, NVS, OMF, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, and GWW report.

So far this morning, MO, ABG, BFH, BIP, BC, CAH, CHKP, CMCSA, FLG, LHX, LAZ, MMC, MBLY, NOK, OSK, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, SIRI, STM, TMO, TT, and VLO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AVY, CAT, DOV, FCFS, IP, KEX, MAN, NOC, PH, SHW, and LUV missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CI, SNY, and SXC beat on earnings while missing on revenue.  However, FLWS, AOS, DOW, MUR, SHEL, and TSCO missed on both the top and bottom lines.  

With that background, markets look undecided again this morning.  All three major index ETFs gapped higher to open the premarket.  However, since that point all three have traded down to print black-bodied candles.  Only QQQ has come up significantly off its premarket lows.  With that said, all three are back above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is on the bullish side again.  The mid-term downtrend is now a mess and can best be described as broad-range chop.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are very far from their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 is back in the middle of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green again with TSLA (+3.70%) well out front leading the gains.  On the other side, MSFT (-4.09%) is almost 4% worse off than the other three red big dogs.  As far as liquidity goes TSLA leads the way, having traded almost 1.5 times more than NVDA (-0.24%) with META (+1.68%) not far behind.  However, note that it is a low-volume premarket today. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw the Bulls take a step back toward redemption after Monday’s rough day.  SPY opened 0.19% higher, DIA opened 0.04% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.25%. At that point, all three major index ETFs gave ground to the Bears for 15 minutes before beginning a rally that lasted until 11:15 a.m. for DIA.  From there, DIA chopped to the side with a modest Bearish Trend the rest of the day.  However, SPY and QQQ kept rallying until 3 p.m. when we saw modest profit-taking the last hour.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY printed a white candle with a lower wick and tiny upper wick that crossed back above its T-line (8ema).  DIA gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  Finally, QQQ printed a large white candle with wicks at both ends.  It retested, but closed just below its T-line.  This happened on below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 of the sectors were in the red with Consumer Defensive (-1.14%) way out front among the losers.  On the other side, Technology (+2.45%) was way, way (by 2%) holding up much better than any other sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.84%, DIA gained 0.29%, and QQQ gained 1.48%.  Meanwhile, VXX lost 3.30% to close at 43.02 while T2122 dropped just outside of its overbought range to the top of the mid-range, closing at 76.11.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields were just on the green side of flat at 4.538% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.05%, closing at $73.94 per barrel. So, Tuesday saw a rebound from the DeepSeek collapse with NVDA popping 8.70%, AAPL gaining 3.65%, and MSFT gaining 2.90%.

The major economic news on Tuesday included Preliminary December Core Durable Goods Orders (Month-on-Month), which came in up but lower than expected at +0.3% (compared to a +0.4% forecast but well above the November -0.1% reading).  On the headline number, Preliminary December Durable Goods Orders (Month-on-Month) were far below expectation at -2.2% (versus a +0.3% forecast and November’s -2.0% value).  Later, January Conf. Board Consumer Confidence reading was lower than had been predicted at 104.1 (compared to a 105.7 forecast and well down from the Dec. 109.5 reading).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a smaller inventory build that anticipated at +2.860 million barrels (versus a +3.700-million-barrel forecast and the previous week’s 1.000-million-barrel inventory build).

There was no Fed news Tuesday as the FOMC meeting began.  (That meeting is still expected to be a hold by most analysts and 99.5% of Fed Futures traders.)

After the close, BXP, FFIV, HLI, LFUS, LOGI, NXT, QRVO, SBUX, LRN, SYK, and UMBF all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CB and RNR missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, PKG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned toward to green side as Japan (+1.02%), India (+0.90%), and South Korea (+0.85%) paced the gains while China remained closed.  In Europe, with the sole exception of the CAC (-0.26%) we see green across the board at midday.  The DAX (+0.81%) and FTSE (+0.35%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the Us, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  DIA implies a +0.62% open, SPY is implying a +0.80% open, and QQQ implies a +0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 4.528% and Oil (WTI) is down about two-thirds of a percent to $73.31 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Preliminary December Goods Trade Balance and Preliminary December Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), FOMC Interest Rates Decision, and FOMC Statement (both at 2 p.m.), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).   The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AIT, ASML, ADP, AVT, EAT, GIB, GLW, DHR, EXP, FLEX, GD, GPI, HES, LII, MHO, MSCI, NDAQ, NSC, OTIS, PGR, SLGN, SF, TMUS, TEVA, and VFC.  Then after the close, AMP, AXS, CHRW, CP, CLS, CCS, CMPR, IBM, LRCX, LSTR, LVS, LEVI, LBRT, MTH, META, MEOH, MSFT, NFG, RJF, RHI, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, TER, TSLA, TTEK, URI, WDC, WHR, and WM report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Core PCE Prices, Preliminary Q4 GDP, Preliminary Q4 GDP Price Index, December Pending Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet. Finally, on Friday, December PCE Price Index, December PCE Price Index, December Personal Spending, Q4 Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from FLWS, AOS, MO, ABG, AVY, BBVA, BX, BFH, BC, CAH, CRS, CAT, CHKP, CI, CMCSA, CFR, DOV, DOW, IP, KEX, LHX, LAZ, MAN, MMC, MA, MBLY, MUR, NOK, NOC, OSK, PH, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, SNY, SCSC, SNDR, SHW, SIRI, LUV, STM, TMO, TSCO, TT, UPS, VLO, AAPL, AJG, TEAM, BKR, BOOT, CNI, CACC, DECK, EMN, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, PFSI, PPG, RMD, SKYW, X, V, and WY.  Finally, on Friday, ABBV, AON, ARCB, ALV, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEPC, BEP, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CL, ETN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, JHG, LYB, NVS, OMF, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, and GWW report.

So far this morning, VLVLY, ASML, ADP, EAT, GPI. HES, LII, MKTAY, NDAQ, NAVI, SLGN, SF, TMUS, TEVA, VFC, and VIRT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AIT, GIB, GLW, GD, and MSCI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DHR, MHO, and OTIS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, EXP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets look undecided again this morning ahead of the FOMC decision (after Trump has “demanded lower rates”).  QQQ started the early session by gapping back up through its T-line (8ema) but is printing a Doji just above that level.  SPY gapped up to start the premarket, but has printed a black-body candle with no wicks since that point and is nearly back to Tuesday’s close.  For its part, DIA is printing a small, inside, white-body candle so far this morning.  However, with all three back above their T-line, the short-term trend is on the bullish side again.  The mid-term downtrend is now a mess and can best be described as broad-range chop.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are very far from their T-line.  Meanwhile, T2122 is back in the top of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to work today if they can find momentum.  (Expect drift until the Fed decision at 2 p.m. where we are likely to see volatility.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the green again with AMD (+1.25%) well out front leading the gains.  On the other side, NVDA (-1.37%) and AAPL (-1.16%) lead the four laggards. As far as liquidity goes NVDA leads the way, having traded almost four times more than TSLA (-0.47%).  However, note that it is a low-volume premarket today. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was all about Chinese startup DeepSeek calling US tech leader investments into AI into question.  SPY gapped gown 2.16%, DIA gapped down 0.80%, and QQQ gapped down 3.52%.  From that point, SPY and QQQ chopped along the bottom end of the opening gap the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after its much smaller gap, DIA rallied modestly all day long.  This action gave us a large gap-down, white-bodied, near Marubozu candle in the SPY.  The post-gap rally got SPY back in the area of its T-line (8ema), but did not result in a retest. At the same time, QQQ gave us a huge gap-down Inverted Hammer type candle where price rallied off the lows, but then failed from the highs.  Finally, DIA printed the strongest candle, gapping down (but staying above its T-line), but then rallied all day to give us a large white Bullish Engulfing candle.

On the day, five of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Consumer Defensive (+2.27%) way out front among the gainers.  On the other side, Technology (-4.05%) took a huge hit and was by far the biggest losing sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 1.41%, DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ lost 2.91%.  At the same time, VXX popped 6.59% to close at 44.49 while T2122 dropped but remained in (the lower part of) its overbought range, closing at 82.47.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell back to 4.534% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.09%, closing at $73.10 per barrel. So, Monday was a market response (overreaction?) to an impressive Chinese startup AI that has been claimed to have been developed fast (two years by a handful of very good guys as a side gig) and trained very cheaply ($6 million) on supposedly lower-end hardware (since embargoes supposedly prevent China from getting the high-end AI cards).  This made the market question the literal hundreds of billions of dollars western tech giants have plowed into AI development and training.  However, this was later tempered by second-thoughts on whether the Chinese government might have secretly footed a hugely larger bill or if the performance was really as good as it appears.  The result was a big gap lower and then a rethink rebound with some rotation into big defensive names thrown in.

The major economic news on Monday was limited to December Building Permits which came in slightly below expectations at 1.482 million (versus to a 1.483 million forecast but down a bit from November’s 1.493 million reading).  Later, December New Home Sales came in higher than expected at 698k (compared to a 669k forecast and Nov. 674k value). 

There was no Fed news Monday as they prepare for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.  (That meeting is expected to be a hold by most analysts and 99.5% of Fed Futures traders.)

After the close, BRO, CR, NUE, SANM, WRB, and WAL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ARE missed on revenue while meeting on earnings.  On the other side, AGNC beat on revenue while missing on revenue.  However, GGG missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with many exchanges still closed for Lunar New Year.  In Europe, we see green with 12 of the 14 bourses above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+0.26%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+0.41%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the day.  DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and QQQ implies a +0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are up to 4.565% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.72% to $73.70 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Preliminary December Durable Goods Orders (8:30 a.m.), January Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.), and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADNT, BA, GM, IVZ, JBLU, KMB, LMT, PCAR, PII, BPOP, RCL, RTX, SYF, SYY, and XRX.  Then after the close, BXP, CB, FFIV, HLI, LFUS, LOGI, NXT, PKG, QRVO, RNR, SAP, SBUX, LRN, and SYK report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Preliminary December Goods Trade Balance, Preliminary December Retail Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Interest Rates Decision, FOMC Statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q4 Core PCE Prices, Preliminary Q4 GDP, Preliminary Q4 GDP Price Index, December Pending Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet. Finally, on Friday, December PCE Price Index, December PCE Price Index, December Personal Spending, Q4 Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AIT, ASML, ADP, AVT, EAT, GIB, GLW, DHR, EXP, FLEX, GD, GPI, HES, LII, MHO, MSCI, NDAQ, NSC, OTIS, PGR, SLGN, SF, TMUS, TEVA, VFC, AMP, AXS, CHRW, CP, CLS, CCS, CMPR, IBM, LRCX, LSTR, LVS, LEVI, LBRT, MTH, META, MEOH, MSFT, NFG, RJF, RHI, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, TER, TSLA, TTEK, URI, WDC, WHR, and WM report.  On Thursday, we hear from FLWS, AOS, MO, ABG, AVY, BBVA, BX, BFH, BC, CAH, CRS, CAT, CHKP, CI, CMCSA, CFR, DOV, DOW, IP, KEX, LHX, LAZ, MAN, MMC, MA, MBLY, MUR, NOK, NOC, OSK, PH, PHM, DGX, RCI, ROP, SNY, SCSC, SNDR, SHW, SIRI, LUV, STM, TMO, TSCO, TT, UPS, VLO, AAPL, AJG, TEAM, BKR, BOOT, CNI, CACC, DECK, EMN, GEN, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, OLN, PFSI, PPG, RMD, SKYW, X, V, and WY.  Finally, on Friday, ABBV, AON, ARCB, ALV, BSAC, BAH, BR, BEPC, BEP, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CL, ETN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, JHG, LYB, NVS, OMF, PSX, RVTY, VSTS, and GWW report.

So far this morning, GM, IVZ, JBLU, KMB, PII, BPOP, RTX, SAP, and SFY have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADNT, and XRX beat on revenue while missing on earnings. On the other side, LMT and RCL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, BA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets look undecided so far this morning.  SPY is retesting its T-line (8ema).  However, both SPY and DIA are giving us Doji candles in premarket. For its part, QQQ gapped higher but has sold off in a black-body candle since then in the early session.  SPY and QQQ remain below their T-line (8ema).  With that said, the short-term trend is on the bearish side of mixed.  The mid-term downtrend is now a mess and can best be described as broad-range chop.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, only QQQ is now extended below its T-line. Meanwhile, T2122 is back in the lower end of its overbought range.  So, both sides have room to work, but the Bulls have slightly more slack.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the green with NVDA (+2.53%) far out in front on a rebound from Monday’s drubbing.  On the other side, AMZN (-0.57%) leads the four losers lower early.  As far as liquidity goes NVDA leads the way, having traded eight times as much dollar-volume as TSLA, which itself has traded twice as much as AAPL. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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