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Range-bound Consolidation

October 1, 2019 by Doug Campbell

As this frustrating range-bound consolidation continues, we can thank our friends down under for the possibility of the second day of bullishness as Australia cuts interest rates to just 75 basis points. Of course, we can’t rule out the possibility of a pop and drop pattern by the end of the day, but at least for now the bulls seem inspired to follow-through on yesterday’s rally. With the uncertainty of 4^th quarter earnings and China trade negotiations scheduled in the new 2-weeks, I wouldn’t be all surprised to see the price action remain choppy and range-bound.

Overnight Asian markets recovered from early bearishness to close mostly higher in reaction to the Australian rate cut. European markets are not sharing in the bullishness currently flat to mostly lower this morning. US Futures point to a modestly bullish open ahead of PMI, ISM, Construction spending reports as well as a parade of Fed speakers. It would seem October will continue to face considerable uncertainty and likely to remain news-driven with enough daily gaps and overnight reversals to keep traders guessing, What comes next?

On the Calendar

The Tuesday Earnings Calendar says we will hear from just seven companies reporting results. Notable reports include MKC and SFIX.

Action Plan

We can thank Australia for slashing its interest rates to a new record low of just 75 basis points inspiring the possibility of a seconded day in a row of bullish price action. During the night, Asian markets were struggling until the rate cut but closed the trading day mostly higher on the news. US indexes remain locked in a choppy range-bound consolidation that but except for the QQQ’s have successfully held their 50-day morning averages. On the whole, I would have to count that a win for the bulls considering all the swirling uncertainty the market faces.

With 4^th Quarter earnings just 2-weeks away, it’s sadly possible; the market could continue in this choppy and challenging consolidation. With Washington politics in utter chaos and pending China Trade negotiations set to begin in a couple of weeks, we should expect October to remain a challenging news-driven market with enough gaps and overnight reversals to test the discipline of even the most experienced traders.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Price Below T-Bands

October 1, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Yesterday was a Doji / Harami day in the SPY closing below our bullish number of $297.95 and above our bearish number of $293.69. The 34-EMA still is above the 50-SMA, and price action is hovering around both. On the hourly chart, price is in bed with the duces (200-SMA and the Dotted Deuces), the 34-EMA and 50-SMA has kept price pushed down. Price simply needs to be above $297.95

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T-Line and T-Line Channels, Price action on the daily chart has fallen below the T-Line and the T-Line Channels. If the Price action gets below the $293.70 line, we should see the T-Line Channels start to lean a little to the downside. The weekly chart has price action between the two upper channels on a bullish pullback; I say bullish because the withdrawal is above the 38% retracement of the August low and September high run and above the 293.70 support line.

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The bottom line, Below $297.50 and above $293.70 is just a tug a war between the buyers and sellers, think of it as one significant indecision Doji. The winner will show it’s colors soon. This flat trading can be challenging to navigate; I personally think the key is not to over trade.

Rick

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. HOME, DOCU, WHR, PHM, SSNC, JBL, CLDR, SNX, HIIQ Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

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🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Above $297.95

September 30, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Above $297.95 today may open the gate for more buying to challenge the $300.00 level and above. The low Friday ($293.69) started to test the August, May and September 2018 support level and found the 50-SMA, the question now will the buyers be able to build a game here? Both the daily and weekly charts of the SPY show no signs of buyer Friday.

The weekly trend from June 7, to mid-August, extended still paints a bullish trend. Now if you take in the top from June you will see a double top. The chart pattern building is a weekly Ascending Triangle. IMPORTANT, if the SPY closes below the 50-SMA the bears may have cut the legs off the buyers. Beware if VXX can show strength above $25.40

The bottom line, stay calm and remember you do not have to trade every day. Cash is a position. We have bought very little over the last few trading days, but we have managed what we own and have close a few for profits. I have personally found by waiting for the reversal pattern (Bullish or Bearish) then trade the trend after that is pretty profitable.

Rick

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. DNR, CYH, XEC, PRGO, FIT, STT, NTNX, WHR, SU. Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Whistle-blower

September 27, 2019 by Doug Campbell

Yesterday’s whistle-blower hearing brought the buyers to a screeching halt producing another pop and drop pattern. After the hearing, the bulls made a lackluster attempt to rally that was frustratingly choppy as the partisan rhetoric rose to a deafening roar of uncertainty. Traders will have to weigh the risk of the weekend carefully considering that anything is possible by Monday’s open.

During the night Asia markets closed mixed but mostly lower with trade talks set to resume on Oct. 10^th. The markets in Europe are green across the board as trade hopes outweigh the US political turmoil. US Futures point to a modestly bullish open ahead of the Durable Good & Personal Income economic reports. Expect more indecisiveness as we head into the weekend.

On the Calendar

We have just 14 companies expected to report earnings on the Friday calendar. Among those reporting, I’m not seeing any particularly notable reports today.

Action Plan

The frustratingly choppy price action continued yesterday after once again gaping up then finding more sellers than buyers during the whistleblower hearing in Congress. The nonstop barrage of partisan spin is hard to ignore, but it’s imperative that we stay focused on price action to navigate this very difficult market.

After the close yesterday, we learned that US/China trade negotiations would resume on Oct. 10^th, only 5-day before the tariffs are scheduled to increase. Let’s hope the talk fast and that the President is correct when he said a deal is closer than most think. We have a light day on the earnings calendar but keep an eye on the Durable Good Orders as well as Personal Income reports at 8:30 AM Eastern. With so much uncertainty as we head into the weekend plan your risk carefully. Literally, anything is possible come Monday’s open!

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Indecision, Follow-Through Needed

September 27, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The market (SPY), Wednesday’s, lower low Harami (indecision), then Tuesday’s little Hammer with a higher low indicates buyers looking, but no real commitment. On a 2-day chart, you can see the Spinning Top Doji (indecision) shows the bulls require a little help to keep price action above the support line but without a higher high the lower high.

If the SPY can get above $298.75, it’s possible; we see buyers step in and challenge the recent highs. But let’s not get to carried away just yet, so far this week the sellers have been able to push the buyers back, and there is still not a confirmed bottom from the recent 5 bars that the sellers have control.

The bottom line, This is Friday, and the futures are up premarket this morning, below $298.75 sellers have control of the SPY. Our dark chart has not given the bullish bottoming signal that we are looking for, above $298.75 would be a great start, remember that number must hold today.

Rick

Ya baby it’s Friday! For Hit and Run Candlesticks, Friday’s are more about profit-taking and getting ready for the weekend. There are no watch-list updates on Fridays. We wish you a fantastic weekend.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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China deal closer?

September 26, 2019 by Doug Campbell

The mere mention by the President that a deal with China may be closer than everyone thinks and the market rallied shaking of the impeachment drama. More importantly, the SPY bounced off its 50-day average, and the QQQ recovered this key technical support with ease. As bullish as yesterday’s move appears, we must remember that one day does not make a trend and that we still have significant price resistance above for the bulls to overcome.

Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher on renewed trade hopes, and European see green across the board in response the Presidents comments on a trade deal. US Futures are pushing for a critical follow-through of yesterday’s rally pointing to a modestly bullish as I write this post. With several notable earnings reports ahead as well as a busy morning on the economic calendar anything is possible. Plan carefully and stay focused on the price action for clues as we approach price resistance levels.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar we have 21 companies reporting results. Notable reports include CAN, CCL, CAG, FDS, MU, and MTN.

Action Plan

The market shook off the impeachment inquiry yesterday after the President mentioned a deal with China might come sooner than everyone expects. Technically speaking yesterday’s rally was a substantial win for the bulls with the SPY bouncing off its 50-day average and the QQQ easily recovery this key psychological level. Now it’s important that we see some followthrough bullishness or yesterday’s move looks more like a dead cat bounce within an existing downtrend.

A one day rally does not make a trend, but I must admit it does raise hopefulness of better days ahead assuming it can hold. Another thing the market could be betting on is that the impeachment process will bring Congress to a halt. A gridlocked government is often seen as bullish by the market. The impeachment of President Clinton kept the Congress busy for about 18 months, and during that time the market experienced a substantial rally. Will history repeat? Only time will tell so turn off the distracting political drama news and stay focused on the price action of the charts.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Nice Day in Down Trend

September 26, 2019 by Rick Saddler

US Markets held support and bounced nicely on Wednesday, but did give up a little of their gains late. However, we must recognize that no reversal candle signals were printed by the indices and at best we had Harami (indecision) in the SPY and DIA.

This leaves us with nothing more than a nice white candle in a downtrend, but at support at this point. Not a very clear picture by any measure.

Today’s economic news includes Q2 GDP at 8:30 am and Aug. Pending Home Sales at 10 am. We will also hear from the lone FOMC dissenter who wanted more of a rate cut (Bullard) as well as a few other Fed members speaking.

As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to small gains, falling in line with Asian and European markets (which were all green overnight). The big boys (Dow and S&P) are pointing to a 0.25% and the NASDAQ a 0.15% gap higher. This will put us close to retesting the downtrend.

The bottom line is we might expect a higher-high off follow-through from Wed. action and global gains. However, that downtrend has not been broken yet. Caution and avoiding the whip are the smart plays.

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. Long: PRGO, EXC, GT, NUS, DOW, OLN, ETR, CRCM, GPRE, HOME, CM. Short: IPG, YUM, QSR, BLL. Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Heikin-Ashi Trading Strategy

September 25, 2019 by Ed Carter

9-24-19 e-Learning Session

Pop and Drop

September 25, 2019 by Doug Campbell

As it turns out my caution of getting caught up and chasing yesterday gap open proved to be correct, producing a pop and drop pattern at price resistance levels. The President’s tough talk on China trade practices at the UN only emboldened the bears pushing indexes lower with the QQQ suffering the worst of the technical damage unable to hold it’s 50-day average. Adding insult to injury Congress began yet another political drama that’s likely to affect the market well into the future opening an impeachment inquiry of the President.

During the night trade tensions and political uncertainty had Asian markets seeing red across the board at the close of trading. Currently, European markets are of a like mind and decidedly bearish across the board this morning. Not surprisingly US Futures are indicating a lower open for the market but let’s keep an eye on the SPY & DIA key moving average supports for a possible area of defense by the bulls. If they fail to hold as did the QQQ the technical damage could greatly inspire the bears to continue lower. Stay focused and flexible as this news-driven market continues to challenge traders.

On the Calendar

On the Hump Day Earnings Calendar we just 15 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include KBH and FUL.

Action Plan

Tough talk at the United Nations from President Trump shook the markets yesterday inspired the bulls to move the indexes quickly toward a test of their 50-day morning averages. The pop and drop price action left behind some pretty nasty looking bearish engulfing candles with the QQQ experiencing the worst of the technical damage. Adding insult to injury later in the day it was announced that Congress opened an inquiry of impeachment against the President alleging abuse of power.

As the political drama continues to grow it only adds another layer of what the market hates the most, uncertainty! Unfortunately, that big festering and stinking pile of uncertainty is likely to continue making this market very challenging for traders navigate. The best we can do is stay focused on price, support, resistance, trend, and be willing to take profits quickly when you have them to avoid the potential whip of the news story.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Can Support Hold?

September 25, 2019 by Rick Saddler

The UK Parliament is back in session, with their attention not focused on Brexit, but at least at the moment on beating up Government Ministers over why they advised what they advised that led PM Johnson to think he could get away with suspending Parliament for 5 weeks. The other major news overnight was the US Congress beginning a formal Impeachment Inquiry against President Trump (although that was expected).

Overnight Asian and European markets followed the lead from yesterday’s US markets with bright red numbers across all major indices.

Today’s economic news is limited, with Aug. New Home Sales at 10am and US Oil Inventories at 10:30am. I’m not so sure either of those will make any splash against the backdrop of political news and the bears taking control of charts the last several days.

As of 7am, US futures are pointing to a small continuation of the Bearish move. The big boys (Dow and S&P) are pointing to a 0.10% and the NASDAQ a 0.25% gap lower.

The charts tell us the short-term trend is clearly bearish, with the all 3 major indices showing failing spectacularly after a strong bullish gap up at the open. They ended up printing bearish continuation signals across the board Tuesday. In the process, the QQQ also gave up the 50sma as potential support. However, if there is a ray of hope, it is that the SPY and IWM both tested and held their 50sma yesterday…and if you might say we tested the area of the 50sma and held it in the DIA. Can that support hold is the key question?

The bottom line is that it is very hard to swing trade these markets until we get less whiplash and range chop and more of that good old consistent trend action.

For Your Consideration: Here are a few tickers we will be adding to our swing trade watch-list. Long: AIZ, ARMK, CCJ, DE, ES, EXC, JACK, UNM. Short: EGHT, QSR, SBUX, CDNS, YUM, CTAS, TWLO, VRNT, MA, ACN. Trade smart, and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching