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Silver Lining?

October 18, 2019 by Doug Campbell

Price action over the last few days has been quite choppy, but technically there may be a silver lining forming in the index charts. As price continues to challenge overhead resistance a nice resting consolidation appears to be forming. After all the wild price swings, a consolidation above 50-day averages allows the averages time to catch up, providing bullish support to prices. Of course, political unrest and earnings could easily bring back the wild volatility, but for now I see this consolidation as productive and bullish.

During the night China reported their economy grew less than expected at 6 percent, closing Asian markets mixed but mostly lower. European markets are trading very cautiously this morning ahead of crucial Brexit vote coming this weekend that, according to reports, may not have the support needed to be successful. US Futures also indicate a flat and cautious open ahead of earnings reports and an uncertain weekend vote.

On the Calendar

On the Friday Earnings Calendar, we have 37 companies as we wrap of the first week of 4^th quarter earnings. Notable reports today include AXP, CFG, KO, KSU, MAN, SLB, STT, SYF, & VFC.

Action Plan

Once again, the Bulls tested resistance levels on the news of a draft Brexit agreement, but a decline in Housing Starts tempered their enthusiasm. This morning we have learned that the draft agreement has a tough challenge ahead and could fail in Parliament according to a preliminary headcount. China reported last night it’s economy grew slower than expected in the third quarter at 6 percent.

Although the market seems to be struggling with overhead price resistance with all the political uncertainties that continue to disrupt market sentiment, technically, there may be a silver lining forming in price action. After such a strong rally higher is looks as if the indexes are settling into a consolidation, allowing long-term averages time to catch up and building a platform that has the potential to be very bullish. Of course, earnings and politics will have a lot say about future direction, but as of now the bulls seem very determined. As we head into the uncertainty of the weekend, plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings Are Good So Far

October 18, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Thursday started with another gap as strong Earnings and news of a new Brexit deal lead the way. However, then range-trading took over for the rest of the day. We ended up printing some form of a black spinning top in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. However, the IWM conspicuously went its own way, printing a strong large-body candle after its gap up. In the end, we have to say this has been a strong start to Earnings Season so far (week 1) and the market has liked it.

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As I said, a Brexit deal was reached on Thursday. However, to get this deal, PM Johnson agreed to Northern Ireland remaining in the EU for customs and some VAT purposes and to “no block veto,” which had been part of the Good Friday Agreement. As a result, this will cost him support in Parliament. The UK press is now reporting that Johnson does not have the votes to get the new deal through Parliament by Saturday at this point. In Syria, Turkey agreed to a ceasefire so that the Kurds can retreat. This essentially gives Turkey everything they wanted from the invasion. Both of these stories reduce market risks and, as such, are “risk on” factors for stock markets.

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Last night, China reported a 6% growth for the third quarter, which is its slowest growth since the 1990s. However, Friday’s US economic calendar is very light with the exception of 5 Fed members speaking during the day. On the earnings front, AMD, AXP, CFG, KO, KSU, SLB, STT and SYF all report before the open. (KO already reported a beat.)

Overnight, Asian and European markets were mixed. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were all pointing to flat open for the major indices.

Remember to be careful chasing. Yes we are getting Rick-on indications from the news (yesterday anyway) and the short-term uptrend remains in place. However, this has not been a deliberately-trading market. Gaps and whiplash don’t make for a good swing trading environment. So, caution remains the prudent approach.

For Your Consideration: No Trade ideas on Friday. With 2.5 days of news risk in front of us…and no ability to respond, taking profits and hedging is in order. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

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🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

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🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Steve’s Fav Patterns – Swing

October 17, 2019 by Ed Carter

Steve’s Fav Patterns – Day Tr.

October 17, 2019 by Ed Carter

Draft Brexit Deal

October 17, 2019 by Doug Campbell

As solid beat by NFLX and early morning news of a draft Brexit deal is making the bulls very happy this morning. The QQQ now looks ready to lead the way and challenge all-time highs in the index. Still ahead is our biggest day of earnings reports this week with a busy morning of Economic reports for the market to digest before the open. Though I’m rooting for the bulls, we have to remember that the bears are unlikely to give up easily. Traders should be careful not to chase morning gaps into resistance highs with the fear of missing out and remember pop and drop pattern can occur in this area.

During the night, Asian markets closed mostly lower as China issued threats of no deal if December tariffs are not removed. However, European markets are green across the board this morning after news of a draft Brexit raises hopes. US Futures also quickly responded higher this morning on the Brexit news pointing to a bullish open ahead of a big day of possible market-moving events.

On the Calendar

On the Thursday Earnings Calendar, we have our biggest day of reports this week, with over 75 companies reporting results. Notable reports include ETFC, BBT, DHR, DOV, EXPO, GPC, HON, ISRG, IVZ, KEY, MTB, MS, PM, SKX, SNA, STI, TSM, & UNP.

Action Plan

After what the UK is calling a last-ditch effort, a new Brexit deal has emerged lifting hopes as October 31 deadline approaches. Now the question to be answered will Parlement ratify the deal? European markets surged higher on news of the draft agreement as did the US Futures. Yesterday the market languished in a sideways chop after a disappointing Retail Sales number that showed even online sales had declined. On the bright side, builder stocks sharply rallied along with building material providers.

Last night solid earnings beat my NFLX may clear the path for the QQQ to reach out and test record highs in the index even though IBM disappointed investors. With the NASDAQ surging and a possible Brexit deal, the US Futures are suggesting a gap up open ahead of the biggest day of earnings reports this week and a busy Economic Calendar with several possible market-moving reports occurring before the opening bell. That means anything is possible this morning, but as of now the bulls are in control and seem determined to test all-time market highs.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

Brexit and Earnings

October 17, 2019 by Rick Saddler

On Brexit, overnight the UK and EU reached a new deal. However, it was reached using a political move, removing the ability of the DUP party (Northern Ireland) to have consent. So, regardless of the headline (assuming the 27 EU leaders agree), there is extreme doubt over whether this deal has any chance of passing the UK Parliament Saturday. This leaves another extension request still the highest probability.

In other International news, China tensions may be on the rise again. China has said it will need tariff relief in order to do the additional Ag purchases President Trump claimed as progress last week. Congress passed a bill condemning the Chinese for the Hong Kong situation. Of course, China immediately condemned Congress’ condemnation. In the HK Parliament, rebels shouted down the PM’s annual speech. And overnight China arrested two Americans.

Wednesday was another blah day with a gap down open met by a trading range that filled the gap and came back a few times the rest of the day. In the end, we printed a Doji Harami in the SPY, DIA and QQQ. Mixed earnings, an unexpected Retail Sales miss and a Fed speaker (Evans) saying “we don’t need any more rate cuts this year” may have left markets confused and waiting for the next headline.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. European markets are all green, with the FTSE jumping a massive 11% at this point on Brexit hopes. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were all pointing to open higher (about 0.30% in the SPY and DIA and 0.65% in the QQQ).

Thursday’s economic calendar includes Sept. Building Permits (8:30 am), Philly Fed Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a couple of Fed speakers in the afternoon. However, once again Earnings will likely have more impact with BBT, DOV, GPC, HON, KEY, MTB, MS, PPG, PM, SNA, STI, and UNP before the open. (MS already reported a major beat this morning.)

While the short-term uptrend remains in place and there was some good news overnight, this has not been a deliberately-trading market. Gaps and whiplash do not make for a good swing trading environment. So, be careful chasing and as always trade your plan.

For Your Consideration: Trade ideas for your swing trading watchlist. Long – GME, PPL, GLNG, BF.B, LW, EQR, DLTR, DG, DOCU, NKE, INFO, WU – Short – PPC, SBAC, FSLR, TSN, SHAK, BHGE, HAL. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Trading Preferred Stocks

October 16, 2019 by Ed Carter

Trading Preferred Stocks Slides

Pop-Out-of-the Box Pattern

October 16, 2019 by Ed Carter

Solid Kickoff

October 16, 2019 by Doug Campbell

With a solid kickoff to earnings season, JPM and UNH inspired the bulls to test price resistance levels in the indexes. Hopeful reports of a Brexit deal yesterday has now stalled according to reports as the deadline quickly approaches. We have a busy morning of earnings reports and a very important Retail Sales number at 8:30 AM Eastern for the market to digest before the open today. BAC got the ball rolling this morning with an earnings beat, but the futures seem a bit cautious this morning with all the political uncertainty.

Asian market closed trading mixed but mostly higher as hope news of a draft Brexit deal lifted spirits. European markets bounce between negative and positive this morning as they weigh the possible outcomes of Brexit. US Futures traded in the red most of the night, and this morning continues to suggest a modestly lower open ahead of early morning earnings and retail sales reports.

On the Calendar

We have more than 50 companies reporting earnings on the second day of earnings season. Notable reports include IBM, ABT, AA, ALLY, BAC, BK, CCI, CSX, KMI, NFLX, PYPL, PNC, STLD, & USB.

Action Plan

Good earnings reports in JPM, UNH, hopeful Brexit deal news, and tech analysts upgrades lead to a broad-based rally to challenge price resistance in the indexes. After climbing sharply throughout the morning session, upward progress stopped about as suddenly as is began spending the remainder of the day in a narrow range chop zone. This morning we’ve learned that the Brexit negotiations have stalled, BAC had better than expected earnings, and Moody’s declared a high risk of global recession in the next 12 to 18 months.

Ahead of a busy morning of earnings reports and a Retail Sales report, futures point to a modestly lower open at the time of writing this report. I think the big question remains can companies produce earnings to support these high prices during an extended trade war as economies slow around the world? The Big Banks are getting it done, so let’s hope we see that trend continue with big tech reports beginning this afternoon when NFLX and IBM reports. Technically speaking, the bulls are in control with all four major indexes above their 50-averages. However, they remain challenged by downtrend and price resistance levels that have proved tough to breach with so much political uncertainty weighing heavily on the market.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings Rev Up the Bulls

October 16, 2019 by Rick Saddler

Tuesday was a strong day from the start on the back of good earnings reports from major banks. However, after a solid gap and run at the Open, the Bulls seemed to hit a wall about 11 am. The rest of the day was a grind sideways with the close at the low end of the 11 am 15min candle. This action left us with a Bullish Trader’s Best Friend signal (albeit less than optimal with an upper wick). It certainly appears that the Bulls want to at least retest the all-time highs again.

In International news, there was European fear on news of stalled Brexit negotiations. This comes less than 24hr after optimism for a new deal. However, nothing will be sure until Thursday night (EU Leader dinner where a new Brexit deal will be debated). Even then, it is unsure if any new deal could be passed by the UK Parliament in its emergency Saturday session.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly higher. European markets are also mixed. As of 7:30 am, U.S. futures were all pointing to mostly flat open, looking for a gap down of only 0.10%.

Today’s economic calendar includes Retail Sales (8:30 am) and Oil Inventories (10:30 am). However, once again earnings are likely to drive action with ABT, BAC, PNC and USB reporting before the open. (BAC already reported, posting higher the expected results.) CSX, CCI, IBM, KMI, NFLX and URO report after the Wed. Close.

Remember to be careful chasing gaps. The downtrend has been broken, but this market remains very volatile and looking for the next news items on which to over-react.

For Your Consideration: Trade ideas for your swing trading watchlist. Short – EL, SHAK, LDOS, SBUX, YUM – Long – JBL, AMAT, MPC, DLTR, KBH, INFO, DE, LEN, SYY, KLAC Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your trade. Stocks we mention and talk about are not recommendations to buy or sell.

✅ SMS text alerts and reminders?👈

✅ Check out our newest YouTube videos👈

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching