Bulls Not Worried Pre-Payrolls

Another gap higher Thursday was met with a roller coaster that ended up selling back down in to the gap.  This gave us high-wick indecisive candles.  The SPY closed up 1.21%, the DIA up 0.87%, and the QQQ up 1.29%.  VXX was down correspondingly to 37.47 while T2122 remains in the mid-range at 64.84.  The 10-year bond yield was up to close at 0.643% and Oil (WTI) held ground, closing at $23.79/barrel.

Like watching a car wreck that’s about to happen, markets have seemed to be waiting on this morning’s jobs report.  At the same time, we know it’s going to be terrible and the bulls have long ago decided that the worst is past us. 

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,936,270 confirmed cases and 271,180 deaths.  Opening continues to be the lead story around the world in spite of concerning signs like a 6th straight day of record-high cases in Russia, a record death toll in Mexico, a death toll uptick in Spain, and new outbreaks in places like South Korean nightclubs.  Among the openings were school openings in France and Norway, travel restriction easing in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore. 

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

In the US, we have 1,292,879 confirmed cases and 76, 429 deaths.  The important US virus-related news seems to be public’s less than stellar adherence to guidelines (or even of showing civility). Several incidents of shootings and physical attacks on people trying to enforce guidelines have made news and there has been a mass disregard for distancing or mask usage in many parts of the country.  This comes as more crowded venues (like factories, malls, etc.) open every day.  This just points to how hard it will be to control spread or lock down again if needed to contain the spread.

Overnight, Asian markets were all in the green. In Europe, the same is true with the exception of Russia so far today.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open as traders seems to be expecting no bad shock from the jobs number. 

The major economic news for Friday includes Apr Avg. Hourly Earnings, Apr Nonfarm Payrolls, Apr Participation Rate, and Apr Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  The earnings are limited to ATH, AXL, BLMN, BR, EXC, GLP, IEP, KIM, LEA, NBL, PBF, PNW, PPL, SABR, TEN, VTR, and XRAY all before the open.

The bulls seem to have decided the worst is behind us.  However, they are running low on follow-through steam lately.  Fortunately for them, the bears have no energy either.  The payroll report and more importantly market reaction will call the tune today.  Just remember that volatility remains a constant companion for traders.  So, all we can do is focus on the short-term chart in front of us.  Remain cautious about longer-term swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain. Finally, remember it’s payday..take profits where and when you can.   

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: no trade ideas for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims

Yesterday the bulls and bears battled it out in a choppy cage match that seemed to show some concern for the Jobless Claims numbers.  However, looking at the morning futures seems to indicate, we don’t care about unemployment.  I must admit the ability of the market to ignore history-making unemployment is not only fascinating but also quite troubling.  That said, the bulls remain in control, and index trends remain bullish as we head into 2-days of ugly job numbers.  Plan your risk carefully.

Asian markets closed mixed, but little changes as China reported that exports unexpectedly rose.  European markets are bullish this morning as BOE holds rates steady and US future point to a substantial gap up ahead of a gigantic day of earnings and jobless claims expected to add more than 3 million more unemployed.

Earnings Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have a gigantic day with more than 750 companies reporting.  Notable reports include ADT, AL, AMC, BUD, BALL, BIDU, BHC, BDX, BMY, ED, CTB, CUBE, DENN, DBX, IT, HL, HLF, HES, HLT, HFC, HST, IRM, JBLU, KTB, LYV, MAIN, MUR, NCLH, DOC, PFPT, RTX, ROKU, SKYW, STMP, SRCL, SPWR, SVMK, SYNA, TCO, TLRY, UBER, YELP, VIAC, & YETI.

Technically Speaking

After a day of very choppy price action that ultimately drifted south by the close now indicates a substantial gap up at the open.  In a story on CNBC, Morgan Stanley warns that the rally fueled by investor fear of missing out is not a good sign for the market.  I agree with that thinking and have said virtually the same thing over the last few weeks.  However, me agreeing with a CNBC talking head does not change the fact that the bulls are in control continuing to buy.  Index trends remain intact, and there are more good looking chart patterns than a person can buy.  Can we continue to ignore the massive unemployment, bankruptcies, negative earnings growth, and the future downgrades?  The US futures this morning seem to answer that question with a great big, yes, even with another 3 million in jobless claims expected!

Personally, it makes no sense to me, but as a full-time trader, my job is to trade the price action in the charts.  My bias and my understanding of why the market is acting in such a manner is not required.  Does that mean I should toss caution to the wind and ignore the technicals of the chart, such as support, resistance, and trend?  NO!  While the indexes continue to hold up-trends, we must recognize that the market continues to struggle with the price resistance above.  A big morning gap up ahead of Jobless report with price resistance above is not a reason to such into new trade risk.  In fact, it could be an excellent opportunity to ring the register and pocket some profits while watching for a possible pop and drop.  Long story short, irrational market price action is commonplace, and it’s the trader’s job to weigh the risk and reward without emotion, bias, or the desire to predict the unknown.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Market Seems To Be Waiting

After another gap-up open, there was a struggle for control as markets rode the rollercoaster for an hour.  However, after 11am the bears were firmly in control the rest of the day.  Another late-afternoon selloff led to closing on the lows as the SPY lost 0.68% on a Bearish Engulfing candle, the DIA lost 0.81% on a big black candle, and the QQQ managed to gain 0.62% on a Doji-like candle.  The VXX gained slightly to close at 39.21 and T2122 remains in the mid-range.  The 10-year bond yield rose to 0.708% and Oil (WTI) finished slightly down at $24.15/barrel.

The big story pre-market was ADP Payrolls reported down over 20 million jobs for April.  However, this number still was not as bad as estimates or even just the total of the most recent 4 weeks of new Unemployment Claims.  So, I don’t know how much read-through this might give for Friday’s official April number.  During the day, Oil reflected the recent rally with some profit-taking and at the same time, US production cuts showed as oil inventories came in much lower than expected.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,843,204 confirmed cases and 265,657 deaths.  In Europe, Russia continues to report record daily new cases.  At the same time, the Mayor of Moscow took his life in his hands when he said he believes the true number of cases in his city is at least 3 times the official number.  In the UK, the Bank of England said the UK economy may shrink 14% in 2020.  Germany also reported an uptick in cases as PM Merkel announced “Emergency Brake” plans in case the spread grows too much post easing.   

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

In the US, we have 1,263,243 confirmed cases and 74,809 deaths.  Wednesday the President reversed himself again, saying the coronavirus task force will remain in place indefinitely, but again said they now are focused on vaccine development.  At the same time, Trump’s rhetoric on China continues to escalate and the trade leaders of the two countries will be meeting again.

Overnight, China reported April Exports rose 3.5% (expectation was a 15.7% decline).  Still, Asian markets were mixed and did not show as many big moves as typical of the last few months.  In Europe, markets are green across the board so far today.  However, they too are not giving huge moves, but instead steady climb so far.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a one percent gap higher at the open. 

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (4 pm).  However, on the earnings front, AAN, AAWW, ABC, AES, AMRK, BCE, BDX, BGG, BHC, BLL, BMY, BUD, CBRE, CFX, CLMT, CNP, CNQ, CRL, CTB, CTVA, DHR, DISH, ENB, ES, FIS, FOLD, GCI, HES, HFC, HII, HLT, IRM, IT, JBLU, MT, NRG, PENN, PWR, RLGY, RTX, TEVA, VIAC, and XEL all report before the open.

The bulls ran out of steam yesterday.  However, the bears are not exactly “killing it” either.  It’s as if the market were waiting on Friday’s payroll report, expecting it to be some sort of surprise.  Regardless, we may see a new lower-low Thursday as that is the direction of drift now.  Volatility remains a constant companion for traders.  So, all we can do is focus on the chart in front of us.  Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.  

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: CGBD, RYAM, ALGN, NKE, FFIV, FMC, BWA, JAZZ. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Trending Charts Everywhere

Trending Charts

Everywhere you look, there are trending charts, stock holding support levels, and great trading patterns displayed.   However, on the other side, there is a growing concern of recession, rampant unemployment, and consumer debit hitting record highs.  All the problems thus far have been masked by government stimulus, but one wonders just how long that can continue.  What I’m saying is don’t become complacent and remember we have the Employment Situation number coming out Friday morning, and it will be hard to ignore.

Asian markets closed mixed overnight, and European markets are seesawing between mild bullishness and bearishness this morning.  Ahead of the ADP report and a huge day of earnings reports the US futures to point to another gap up open.  Stay focused on price and remember a moring gap and easily be met by profit-takers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Hump day is a busy day on the earnings calendar, with 475 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include PTON, DDD, ALB, AEP, AWK, AMP, APA, AVB, GOLD, BG, CCL, CARS, FUN, CTL, COTY, CVS, DISCA, EPR, ETSY, EXAS, STAY, FTNT, FOSL, GM, GPC, GDDY, GRUB, H, IAC, LYFT, MRO, MET, NYT, ODP, PZZA, PYPL, RMAX, SHB, SMG, SHOP, SQ, TMUS, TWLO, WM, WEN, WING, WYND, & ZTS.

Technically Speaking

 It was great to see so many profits taken yesterday with the follow-through bullish price action.  It looks as if those that continued to hold overnight will see additional rewards this morning.  However, as we head into the jobless claim numbers on Thursday and the Employment situation on Friday morning, it may be wise exercise a bit more caution.  Everywhere you look, there are trending charts showing bullish patterns, but let’s keep in mind in just 3-days the Dow will have recovered 700 to 800 points from Monday’s low will once again test overhead price resistance.  Concerns of recession, mounting consumer debt, and the massive unemployment began to gain some traction yesterday after a Fed member painted a pretty grim picture going forward.

After the bell, the DIS report displayed the massive impacts of the virus and suggested the full effects will happen next quarter.  One benefit they did enjoy was the tremendous increase in their streaming subscriber base that topped 54 million.  Today the market will grapple with another 475 earnings reports and an ADP number at 8:15 AM Eastern with a consensus estimate of 20 million jobs lost.  So far, the market has been able to ignore the unemployment, choosing to focus on governmental stimulus.  That may be the case today, but I’m not sure the Friday number will easily be glossed over unless we hear of another big check from the government on the way.  I guess what I’m saying is not to become complacent.  Stay focused and take those profits the market provides because anything is possible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Oil Keeps Racing Higher on Demand Hope

Tuesday was a struggle between the bulls and bears.  Markets gapped a bit over 1% higher at the open.  After a morning follow-through for another percent, the bulls ran out of steam.  Markets ground sideways until 3pm, when a strong selloff drove us back down to the gap at day-end.  As a result, all 3 major indices printed high-wick candles that are at best indecisive.  The QQQ and DIA look more bearish in flavor.  On the day the DIA gains 0.58%, the SPY 0.92%, and the QQQ 1.13%. VXX fell back to 38.67, while the 10-year bond yield rose to 0.662%.  Oil (WTI) continued its recent tear rising another 23% (5 consecutive days of strong gains) to close at $25.12/barrel.

During the day, US Household Debt was reported at $14.3 trillion.  This was another record high, up 1.1% in Q1 on a 23rd straight quarter of increased borrowing.  The debt remains just shy of the 2007 record (inflation-adjusted) $15 trillion.  This increase came in-spite of creditors tightening standards in Q1 and most of the quarter coming before virus economic damage was significant.  Fed Vice Chair Clarida also said more help may be needed, but his baseline forecast is that economic growth will begin again in Q3.  However, he also said he expects the downturn to continue through Q2.  It is possible that this view of Q2 (CNBC interview) helped spark the selloff at 3pm Tuesday.

After the close, the President confirmed he’ll disband the coronavirus task force, maybe as soon as month-end.  He said the US economy must open, even if more Americans get sick or die, which he also said was inevitable.  So, he’ll be replacing the virus task force with one focused on economic growth.  Clearly, he assumes the infection increases will not be economically crippling and losses will be acceptable. 

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

In an unrelated story, a Los Alamos National Lab report raised concerns over future treatment and vaccines.  The report said there are now 14 strains of COVID-19. The primary strain in the US (and world) came from a mutation in Europe.  Two parts of this are concerning.  First, the now dominant strain seems more contagious than the two strains that China sequenced and reported in late January.  Second, any mutations are likely to impact the efficacy of treatments or vaccines that were based on the original genetic sequence.

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,747,400 confirmed cases and 258,973 deaths.  In Europe, only 5 countries are still not reporting declines in the new case rate and of those, only Bulgaria is reporting an increasing rate.  This lends more credence to European reopening timelines.  Still, the EU reported that it expects its economy to shrink 7.5% for the year (down from a February forecast of +1.4%).

In the US, we have 1,238,083 confirmed cases and 72,285 deaths.  Signs show that the economy is picking back up again as Weekly mortgage applications rose for the third straight week, up 7% week-on-week.  WEN made a couple of stories. It reported same-store sales rebounded hard as customers come back in droves.  However, they also reported that 18% of their stores have run out of beef.  It is worth noting that COST and KR both implemented meat rationing for their customers in the last few days. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  In Europe, markets are mixed, but leaning more to the green side so far today.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to a three-quarters of a percent gap higher at the open. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am) and Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  However, AEP, ALXN, AXTA, BG, BWA, CDW, CVS, CNHI, DISCA, DISCK, FLIR, FMS, FTS, GM, GOLD, GPC, KKR, MEET, MFC, NI, ODP, OMI, PAG, SMG, SPR, TMUS, VMC, WM, and ZTS are among those who report before the open.

As said yesterday, the bulls and bears are still struggling.  So, volatility and gaps will remain the standard.  However, in the short-term it appears the bulls want to take us back up to at least retest resistance above.  All we can do is focus on the chart in front of us.  Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain.  

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: CVE, ABBV, PAGS, ABT, LMT, SNAP, EBAY. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

A Record 3 Trillion!

3 Trillion
http://Demonocracy.info

It was an overall dull trading day until the news that the US Treasury plans to burrow 3 Trillion this quarter.  I guess that was music to the ears of the market, creating a sharp rally recovering yesterday’s losses to close in the green.  The bullish energy stayed with the futures all evening and now points to substantial gap up open ahead of earnings and economic data.

Asian markets closed mostly higher despite the big hit Hong Kong reported in the first quarter.  European markets are in rally mode this morning as more virus restrictions lifted, and the hope of recovery grows.  US Futures suggest a Dow bullish gap of nearly 250 points reversing yesterday’s selloff and proving support of the DIA and IWM 50-day average. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

With new additions, the Tuesday earnings calendar expects more than 375 reports today.  Notable reports include NEM, DIS, ATVI, AOS, ALK, AGN, ALL, BYND, BCO, CAKE, CC, DVA, DVN, D, DD, EA, FACU, FLR, ITW, I, J,  KGC, LC, TREE, LGIH, MPC, MAT, OXY, PINS, PLNT, PRU, REGN, RCL, STOR, SU, SYY, TRIP, W, WU, & WYNN.

Technically Speaking

It was a pretty bleak day yesterday with light and choppy price action until the report came out that the US Treasury planned to burrow a record 3 Trillion this quarter.  After the news, the market rallied strongly, confirming the market has no concern about debit as long as the money keeps flowing to the market.  The bullish energy continued overnight with the futures market rising, pointing to a substantial gap up open reversing Monday’s selloff.  California, Wahington, joins other states in getting back to business with limitations and new social guidelines.  The market seems to have gains some energy on the reopening even though many suggest its too early, worrying about the 2nd round of increasing infections.  Even Congress has returned to work wearing masks and indicating no more closures of the government. I’ll let you decide if that’s good news or not!

By the close yesterday, the DIA & IWM proved the 50-day average as support with this morning’s follow-through providing some conformation of the hold.  We have a big day of earings with over 375 companies reporting, but I’m not sure that matters.  We rally on good earnings reports, and we rally on bad earings reports choosing to focus on the trillions of governmental spending.  I guess massive debt negative earnings growth and 30 million unemployed is no match for the apparent unlimited checkbook of the government.  One has to wonder about the long-term ramifications of these decisions.  That said, the trend is bullish, the hold of support levels provides conformation, and we as traders must focus on the price action of the charts.  I don’t need to understand it or agree with the market decisions as long as I set aside my bias and trade the price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Some Firms on Rocks But Bulls See Light

Monday saw a gap down of about 0.8% in the major indices.  However, shortly after this the bulls started a slow climb back into the game.  The day ended just on the green side of break-even in the large-caps while the tech-heavy QQQs led the way.  For the day, the SPY was up 0.28%, the DIA up 0.06%, and the QQQ was up 1.17%.  The QQQ also managed to print a bullish engulfing candle. At the same time, the VXX was down slightly to 40.26 and T2122 (4-week High Low Ratio) fell to exactly the mid-point between overbought and oversold territory at 50.  The 10-year bond yield was flat, technically closing down to 0.63 and Oil (WTI) continued its rally up over 7% to $21.18/barrel.

During the day the Treasury Dept. announced it will be borrowing $3 Trillion (bond sales) this quarter.  However, except for the exact number, this was expected due to the massive stimulus and relief packages already signed into law.  Meanwhile, the FDA said it will start to crack down on COVID-19 antibody tests.  In the panic to get tests to the public, over 250 antibody tests were taken to the market.  However, it has been reported that many of them give over 50% “false positives” (more than half the people who are told they have antibodies turn out not to have them).  This crackdown should start in the next 10 days and may well impact a number of medical sector tickers.

After the close, HTZ announced it has retained an advisor for help with bankruptcy proceedings.  LB also announced it had ended its deal to sell the Victoria’s Secret brand to a private equity firm.  Meanwhile, in supply chain news, earlier in the day TSN again warned of potential meat shortages despite an Executive Order forcing plants to remain open.  They cited US hog processing capacity having been cut in half.  After the close, SHAK confirmed by reporting they’ve seen significantly higher beef costs and expect the price hikes to continue.

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,663,961 confirmed cases and 252,758 deaths.  Reopening continues throughout Europe with mixed results.  While crowds waited on department stores to open in Austria, many Italian retail businesses said it wasn’t worth the effort to open shop since no customers showed up.  Germany reports a similar story as Italy on retail, but its manufacturing sector seems to be well on its way back to capacity.

In the US, we have 1,213,010 confirmed cases and 69,925 deaths.  A CDC report (marked with HHS and Homeland Security Dept. seals and dated May 1st) was leaked Monday.  The document said it expects to see virus spread and deaths accelerate by June with the mid-point of several forecasts being 200,000 new cases and 2,500 deaths per day.  The White House disclaimed the report saying it didn’t reflect any modeling done by the task force itself.  (For reference, the US now sees about 25,000 new cases and 1,200 deaths per day.)  Meanwhile, SBUX reports 85% of its stores nationwide will be open by Friday.  So, US reopening continues and at least we can get coffee while we argue over forecasts.

Asian markets of questionable value today.  China, Japan, and South Korea were all off for a market holiday Tuesday.  In Europe, markets are in the green across the board at this point in the day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a three-quarters to one-percent gap higher at the open. 

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Mar. Import/Exports (8:30 am), Apr. Services PMI (9:45 am), and Apr. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am).  Earnings before the open include D, FCAU, NEM, ITW, DD, SYY, INCY, MPC, REGN, SPG, TDG, AME, XYL, MLM, VTR, WRK, HSIC, AOS, IPGP, SEE, ALK, KEX, ACM, WRK, ADNT, USFD, ARMK, LDOS, HSIC, AGCO, W, INGR, TRI, TA, and AME.

The very recent pullback remains in place, but the bulls were in control all day (after the open) yesterday.  Volatility and gaps remain the standard.  However, it appears the bulls want to take us back up to at least retest resistance above after Monday’s bounce.  Focus on the chart in front of you.  Continue to be cautious about longer swing trades, unless you can take some short-term pain. 

Ed

Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today: VLO, PNR, COP, ADP, TECK, PH, NXPI, GNTX, EMR, SIRI. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Reopening the Economy

Reopening the Economy

As the country begins the process of reopening the economy, the bulls and bears are grappling with what the new normal will look like as the battle with the virus continues.  So many questions, so much uncertainty, and the realization that the recovery will be very complicated until a vaccine becomes widely available will test investor’s resolve.  Add to that massive week of earnings reports, and the stage is set for a week of whipsaws and big morning gaps.

Asian markets closed the day mixed but mostly lower, with Hong Kong dropping more than 4%.  European markets are decidedly bearish this morning down more than 3% as US-China tensions rise over coronavirus.  US Futures have rallied off of overnight lows but still point to a Dow gap down or 200 to 250 points challenging it’s 50-day moving averages as support.  Prepare for another hectic week.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a hectic week of earnings reports.  The Monday calendar indicates more than 250 companies will report today.  Notable reports include O, AIG, AWR, CAR, CRUS, DLB, EXPE, HTZ, L, NNN, OHI, PETS, SRE, SHAK, SWKS, TXRH, TSN, WMB, and WH.

Technically Speaking

The question as to whether the market will follow-through to the downside seems answered with futures pointing to a substantial gap down open.  Now the question on everyone’s mind, will the 50-day moving averages serve as support?  If not, then we will have to rely on some key price supports to stop the selling.  The DIA support at about 232 looks the most vulnerable, with SPY having a bit more cushion around 275.  As the country begins to process of reopening the market is struggling with what the new normal may look like and will we be able to control the spread of the virus enough to not overwhelm the healthcare system.  With social distancing rules still in effect, can businesses even afford to open with lower volumes of consumer traffic? 

Airlines are in decline this morning after learning that Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire stake in the industry due to the coronavirus impacts.  Not a big surprise when the Oracle of Omaha loses confidence in the industry sector.  With a massive week on the earnings calendar with around 1500 companies reporting, we should prepare for another volatile week of price action.  Intra-day whipsaws and significant overnight gaps remain likely and will prove challenging to navigate.  A week later than usual, the Employment Situation report on Friday could have a substantial influence on this week’s activity.  If the consensus estimates are anywhere close to correct, it’s going to be a difficult pill to swallow and harder to ignore than the weekly unemployment numbers.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bad BRKB Report and a Lower Open

As we turned the page to a new month, Friday turned a positive week negative.  Bad earnings news from AAPL and AMZN, and post-April profit-taking led to a 1.75% gap-down.  Then, after a late-morning selloff, markets spent the afternoon just grinding sideways near the lows.  For the day the SPY was down 2.74%, the DIA down 2.44%, and the QQQ down 2.82%.  The VXX rose on this performance to close at 41.19.  The 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.618% and Oil (WTI) rose again to get back to $19.69/barrel.

The big weekend news was that Berkshire lost $50 billion (largest ever) in the last quarter.  It sold its entire stake in 4 airlines at a big loss to get out of that industry altogether.  We also learned they had not bought the recent bottom.  In fact, Warren Buffett said “We’ve not bought anything because we don’t see anything that attractive (to buy).”  So, BRKB is still amassing cash and now has $137 billion of cash on hand. 

In other weekend news, Larry Kudlow (Chair NEC) told reporters on Sunday that the White House hasn’t yet made a decision on a third round of PPP, but said it may be needed.  In the meantime, he was promoting the administration’s ideas of a payroll-tax holiday as well as going back to 100%-deductibility for business meals and entertainment.

$50.00 discount with code: Privilege

On the other side of the easing argument, Bloomberg reports economists are just starting to worry that ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy may cause inflation.  In particular, economists at the Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, and some of the large banks are worried that pressure to keep easing in place will cause runaway inflation.  Concerns aren’t major at this point, but it points to the fine line the Fed must walk now that Congress and the Administration are in a “buy our way out of this” mode. 

On the Virus front itself, the global headline numbers are 3,584,116 confirmed cases and 248,641 deaths.  Russia has recorded 3 consecutive days of a record-high number of new cases (now well over 10,000 new cases per day).  However, the biggest international virus story seems to be the rise in the rhetoric of blaming China for the pandemic and “holding them accountable.” Of course, China responded with its own propaganda about the US.  In and of itself this is not important, but the war of words does raise the specter of another round in the trade war, particularly in an election year, which the global economy may not be in as good a position to handle as it was last year.

In the US, we have breached the million-case mark, with 1,188,826 confirmed cases and 68,606 deaths.  31 states had some easing or reopening as of the weekend.  Of those, only 17 have actually achieved the 14-day new case rate reduction that was recommended by administration guidelines.  Activity and hope are increasing.  Only time will tell if it was too soon or false hope.  However, it’s the course our leaders chose and all the rest of us can do is embrace it as cautiously as possible.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed after a 3-day weekend.  Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India were down sharply.  However, China, Australian, and smaller countries like Thailand were well in the green.  In Europe, markets are deeply in the red after their own 3-day weekend.  The FTSE is only off a third of a percent, but the set seem to be down over 2% at this point in the day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a half to one-percent gap lower at the open.

The uptrend was broken Friday on the first consecutive down day in over a week.  Still, there is potential support not far below and the Bulls have clearly been focusing on the good (and hope) and ignoring the bad news during the last 5+ weeks.  Volatility and gaps remain the norm.  We can also expect bad economic news to continue. 

So, all traders can do is focus on the chart in front of us.  However, in such uncertainty and somewhat unexplained strong rebound, we either need to be fast (day trade) or slow (longer-term holds).  Be very cautious about swing trades, unless you can handle significant short-term pain. 

Ed

No Trade Ideas for today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Unemployment topped 30 Million

Unemployment topped 30 Million

As unemployment topped 30 million, the bears decided to return to work yesterday, and profit-takers took advantage of the best monthly market rally since 1987.  Earnings from AMZN & AAPL that disappointed investors keep the bears active in the futures market overnight, which now suggests a substantial gap down at the open.  However, at this time, all the indexes indicate they still have their 50-day averages below that could serve as support.

Asian markets closed with Japan falling nearly 3% while other markets were closed for holidays.  European markets are decidedly lower this morning with the DAX and CAC down more than 2%.  US Futures point to a gap down of more than 400 points ahead of earnings and economic reports.  Expect to hear, ‘Sell in May and go away,’ repeated over and over as we head into the weekend.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the first day of May, we have a lighter day on the earnings calendar, with about 100 companies reporting results.  Notable reports include CVX, CLX, ABBV, APO, CL, DISH, EL, XOM, HON, PSX, VTR, & WPC.

Technical Speaking

Disappointing unemployment numbers yesterday woke up the bears and brought out some profit-takers.   Overall this was the best month for the market since 1987, with the recovering 35% from the March lows.  After the bell, we heard for AMZN and AAPL, and both seemed to disappoint investors setting off an overnight selloff in the futures.  AMZN looks to open about $120 points lower this morning or about 5% while AAPL is down about 8 points or 2.75%.  These to tech bellwethers comprise a significant weight in the QQQ, and it will be interesting to see how that affects the index leadership as we begin May.

With the Dow Futures pointing to more than a 400 gap down on the first day of May expect to hear the old saying, ‘sell in May and stay away,’ repeated over and over by traders and the media.  After such a strong rally in the indexes, a pullback is not out of the question, but hope for an economic reopening begins; I’m not sure that old saying will carry much weight.  Even with the sizable gap down this morning, all the indexes so far indicate to open above their 50-day averages.  Will they hold?  Only time will tell, but with another day of earnings and economic reports, anything is possible.  Consider your risk carefully as we slide into the weekend.

Trade Wisely,

Doug