More record highs in the SP-500 & NASDAQ indexes as the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline. Although this divergence is a bit troubling, the bullish trends and price patterns in the indexes remain bullish. The VIX is also a little perplexing stubbornly holding above 20 handles as the market stretches higher. However, the upcoming speech from Jerome Powell that’s likely to layout a new inflation policy that will keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future may well inspire the bulls even higher in the days ahead.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight. European markets trade mixed and cautiously flat this morning as they wait on the Fed policy speech. US Futures ahead of earnings, a Durable Good report, and a possibly damaging hurricane bearing down on the gulf coast point to cautiously flat open today.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have 21 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include WSM, BILI, BOX, CHS, DKS, EV, EXPR, HEI, LCI, NTAP, PTR, RY, & SPLK.
News & Technical’s
Yesterday we heard about layoffs from Delta Airlines, and today American Airlines says it will cut up to 19,000 jobs when the Federal-aid expires in October. In the restructure plan Bed Bath & Beyond said they would cut 2800 as impacts from the pandemic continue to mount for US business. However, a look at the index charts, and it appears the need for employment is no longer a requirement for a healthy economy as the NASDAQ and the SP-500 set new record highs. Gas futures are on the rise as hurricane Laura intensifies and takes direct aim on the Texas coast. Evacuations are underway as the oil and gas industry shuts down with the damaging storm set to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday. CRM saw a nice bump up yesterday after learning it would be added the Dow average, but after the bell, the stock soared higher on the back of a strong earnings report. The stock is indicated to gap nearly 15% higher at today’s open.
Index trends remain very bullish, and though we saw just a little selling the Dow yesterday, the price patterns remain very strong. Overnight futures were a bit muted, and this morning point to a relatively flat open ahead of earnings reports and a Durable Goods number that consensus suggests will show a substantial decline. That said, the market has its focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the Fed chair is likely to roll out a new Fed inflation policy that will keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
Markets gapped higher Tuesday on hope of more help from the Fed (spurred by leaks about the content of FOMC Chair Powell’s Thursday speech). However, the DIA sold off both strongly and immediately on its overnight reshuffle that saw XOM, PFE, and RTX replaced in the Dow 30. The other major indices faired better grinding sideways until the bulls stepped in late in mid-day to rally all the way into the close. On the day, DIA lost 0.20%, SPY gained 0.36% (closing at a new all-time high), and QQQ gained 0.79% (also closing at an another all-time high). The VXX lost a touch to 24.39 and T2122 remains just outside of overbought territory at 77.69. 10-year bond yields were up strongly to 0.687% while Oil (WTI) also gained to $43.35/barrel.
Kansas City Fed President George told CNBC she has concerns about a double-dip recession if there is a virus resurgence. She also expressed skepticism of Fed Chair Powell’s expected Thursday policy change announcement that will allow inflation to “run hot” (overshoot the 2% target without action to reduce it).
While Marco fizzled Monday, hurricane Laura is expected to intensify to a Category 4 storm. The major storm is expected to make landfall in Texas or Louisiana either tonight or on Thursday morning. Many businesses, including a high number of Chemical Plants and Oil Refineries in that area, have been shut down for days and will remain closed until at least next week.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,956,160 confirmed cases and 182,421 deaths. The good news is that new cases continue to trend down, coming in at just over 40,000 for Tuesday. However, deaths saw a spike back up close to 1,300 on the day. In a dramatic (and questionable) change, the CDC posted revised guidelines saying that people exposed to infected people DO NOT need to be tested unless they are showing symptoms. Moreover, they are discouraging testing by saying “if you do get tested, you should self-quarantine at least until you have results.” So as testing is being decreased and is now being discouraged, and reporting has been changed, we should see dramatically lower numbers.
Globally, the numbers rose to 24,091,252 confirmed cases and 824,177 deaths. In Europe, Germany said a good portion (42%) of their recent increase in cases are due to international travelers now that they have reopened borders. Among the origin countries identified were Turkey, Kosovo, Croatia, Bosnia, and Bulgaria. In the UK, the government made a U-turn to say that many secondary school kids will be required to wear masks in an attempt to get public education (freeing the parents to work) back in place.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but modestly lower. Shanghai and Shenzhen both lost over 1.3% in the only moves greater than one percent. The remaining markets all stuck much closer to flat on the day. However, European markets are more hopeful as of their mid-day. There are no major moves, but everything except the FTSE and Sweden are leaning toward the green side. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a mixed and modest open, with the DIA just on the red side of flat, SPY just on the green side of it, and the QQQ looking to a half-percent gap higher at the open.
The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). Major earnings reports include DKS, DY, and RY before the open. Then after the close GEF and WSM report.
The rally has continued and new DIA member CRM had blow-out earnings after the close Tuesday. So that should help that market, shaken a bit by Monday’s revised lineup. It seems the bulls are restless waiting on political conventions to end, DC to return to work to give the economy more stimulus, and now the Fed to announce they will let inflation run until after they secure full employment.
The trend still remains bullish. So, be careful trying to get on the short side. (Markets can stay “wrong” longer than we can stay solvent.) Follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Don’t try to predict reversals or breakouts. Above all, remember, trading is a job. We must obey our rules, stick to the process, and work to be consistently profitable.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NOW, SQ, COST, FB, MXIM, SNPS, WYNN, UNM, STZ. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After a little intra-day pop and drop, the bulls came out in force once again, setting new records pushing the SP-500 above 3400. The bulls want to add to yesterday’s impressive display of strength, pointing to yet another gap up open with all eyes on a possible inflation policy change from the Fed expected on Thursday. The Dow still needs about 4.5% to set a new record, and with significant changes coming in the average at the end of the month, institutions will have to work hard to get that headline.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight. However, European markets are modestly bullish across the board this morning. US Futures are currently mixed this morning with the Dow expected to gap more than 150 points and NASDAQ flat to slightly lower.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
The Tuesday earnings calendar shows 24 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include JWN, ADSK, ATHM BMO, BNS, BBY, PLCE, HAIN, HPE, HRL, INTU, SJM, MDT, CRM, TOL, & URBN.
News and Technical’s
More record highs after a day of robust bullish activity as the market looks forward to a significant policy speech from Powell on Thursday. According to reports, the Fed Chair will lay out a plan that changes the way the committee views inflation. The idea is to keep rates very low until they see a substantial increase in inflation, which is a significant shift in the FOMC history that worked to control inflation. Big changes are coming to the Dow Industrial Average with CRM replacing XOM, AMGN replacing PFE, and HON will take the position of RTX before the market opens on August 31. The change intends to balance the index after the AAPL decided to move forward with a 4-for-1 split, which will move it weighting from number 1 down to the 17th position. Delta announced plans to furlough 1900 pilots in October as a result of pandemic impacts with other airlines likely to follow their lead soon.
A look into the index charts, you can see nothing but bullishness as we continue to pump-out new records almost daily. With the possibility of a new inflation policy coming to the Fed and seemingly no substantial concerns about Federal debt, we may have to come up with a new definition for what constitutes an overly frothy market environment. As traders, all we can do is stay with the current trends, stay focused, and avoid becoming complacent in case the music does suddenly stop.
Markets gapped higher on follow-through to last week’s rally. While there was some roller-coaster, markets essentially stayed where they gapped, closing near the highs. Once again, the SPY and QQQ both closed at new all-time highs. That said, the SPY and DIA could be seen as “gap up Hanging Man” candles, but we know that without follow-through candle signals mean nothing. Price gets the only vote that counts. On the day, SPY was up 1.01%, DIA up 1.39%, and QQQ up 0.62%. The VXX fell slightly to 24.52 and T2122 rose back near the overbought territory at 78.68. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.656%, while Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.42/barrel.
After the close, CNBC reported that Fed Chair Powell’s Thursday video speech (virtual Jackson Hole Symposium) is expected to be historic. They say Powell will reverse the long-standing Fed inflation policy that goes back to former Chair Volcker’s policies to fight high inflation in the early 1980s. This speech is expected to outline a new policy designed to encourage inflation to “overshoot” (above the target rate of 2%) instead of trying to halt it at 2 percent. The idea appears to be they will look to hit the target level “on average.” This is all designed to emphasize full employment as the guide versus trying to meet dual mandates (employment and inflation) and is seen as an effort to jump start recovery. This will have the effect of forcing risk-seeking, which should point to a continued stock market rally.
In a major shakeup, 3 new companies were added to the Dow Jones “Industrial” Average last night. The new companies AMGN, CRM, and HON. Those 3 will replace PFE, XOM, and RTX. The XOM and PFE removals were a major unexpected move.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,915,911 confirmed cases and 181,117 deaths. The good news is that new cases continued their recent trend down from the July highs. However, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly above 43,300 new cases and 980 deaths per day.
Globally, the numbers rose to 23,836,657 confirmed cases and 817,606 deaths. Hong Kong reported a first case of reinfection (with 4 months between them). It appears the 33-year-old man was infected with two different strains of the virus. In Europe, France announced an increase in Covid-19 cases as Germany put both Paris and the French Riviera region on a travel warning. Meanwhile Spain tightened its restrictions again as cases rise. (All these European rises should be kept in context. Even combined, the number of new cases in Europe is dwarfed by those in the US.)
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned heavily to the upside. Japan and South Korea led gainers. In Europe this morning again only Athens shows red. However, the bulls have not made a huge move either yet as the bourses all about +0.50% as of mid-day. In the US, at 6:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly higher open, with only the DIA looking at a +0.50% gap on the shakeup.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales (both at 10 am) and a Fed Speaker (Daly at 3:25 pm). However, Tropical Storm Marco will be onshore with Hurricane Laura following soon. Major earnings reports on the day include BBY, BMO, BNS, HRL, MDT, and SJM before the open. Then after the close, ADSK, CRM, HPE, INTU, JWN, TOL, and URBN report.
Sorry folks but I am under the weather. This will have to suffice until tomorrow.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: . Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
There are stampeding bulls everywhere you look this morning with futures point to massive gap up at the open lead by the colossal tech giant AAPL the will split its stock after the bell today. The market is also looking to the Fed to bring more support and clarity to there future policy actions with the beginning of there Jackson Hole symposium. With the Nasdaq and SP-500 at new record highs, how much more money printing do we need until the market can stand on its own? Perhaps we will find out soon.
Asian markets enjoyed a nice rally overnight, with the HSI up nearly 1.75%. European markets are profoundly bullish this morning with the DAX and CAC up more than 2%. US Futures ahead of a light day of earnings and economic news point to a substantial gap up, setting new records and lifting the Dow to challenge breakout resistance.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 26 companies reporting results. Notable reports include PANW & QFIN.
News & Technical’s
As two tropical storms threaten the Gulf states, the market is seeing nothing but bullishness this morning following the led of Asian and European markets up sharply this morning. Though many tech companies appear priced to perfection, traders and investors can’t seem to get enough of these high flyers no matter the price. AAPL stock will split after the bell today as it continues to ride the wave of this historic rally as the most valuable company in market history. With the SP-500 at new record highs and the Nasdaq setting records almost daily, the Dow remains about 5% below record territory but working hard to catch up this morning gaping up more than 250 points. With such a massive gap up, we have to consider the possibility of a pop and drop pattern, but I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it with such wild exuberance. Markets will be looking to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium hoping for more market supporting operations and assurance of long term low rates. How long and how high do the markets have to go being propped up by Federal debit before it can stand on its own?
The strong bullish trends continue bouncing of price support levels at the end of the last week. Price patterns are also very bullish in the DIA, SPY, and IWM. While the trend in the QQQ is remarkably bullish, it is also very extended nearly 9% above its 50-day average. With just five of the tech giants dominating the indexes, any stumble could signal a top, so don’t become complacent.
Friday was a lackluster day, but bullish after the PMI Indices showed strong economic activity so far this month. On the day, all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The SPY closed 0.35% higher, the DIA up 0.51%, and the QQQ up 0.69% (mostly on the back of AAPL’s pre-split gains. This gave both the SPY and QQQ new all-time high closes. The VXX was flat at 24.62 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio was also flat at 37.41. 10-year bond yields were down just a touch to 0.635% and Oil (WTI) also fell to $42.26/barrel. On a weekly chart, both the SPY and QQQ certainly look extended. However, that certainly has not deterred the bulls yet.
In weekend Tech news, in an “interested third-party” statement, MSFT has warned a US District Court that AAPL blocking of Epic Games from the App Store is detrimental to gaming industry (including MSFT) and to market competition. In other tech news, CNBC reported that FB CEO Zuckerberg had warned President Trump and lawmakers at an October dinner of a grave threat to the prospects of US tech companies that was posed by Chinese tech firms like TikTok. Shortly afterward, a national security review was launched and the President started his Executive Order campaign.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,874,295 confirmed cases and 180,605 deaths. The good news is that new cases continued their recent trend down from the July highs. However, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly above 43,300 new cases and 989 deaths per day. On Saturday the CDC announced that during the first 7 months of 2020, the US had 215,000 “more deaths than usual.” This suggests the number of virus deaths could be significantly higher than the 170,000 that was reported at the end of July. In treatment news, Sunday the FDA expanded the use of “convalescent plasma” as a treatment by giving expanded emergency use authorization.
Globally, the numbers rose to 23,612,908 confirmed cases and 812,991 deaths. In Asia, South Korea suspended in-person classes at the 1,900 schools across their nation as just under 300 students and 80 faculty members have tested positive since the country began a phased return to class. The country’s President Moon warned of a total lockdown if the new level of alert does not stop the new spread. However, in the quarantined Australian Victoria state, progress was reported with the fewest new cases in 7 weeks reported in the last 24 hours.
Overnight, Asian markets were overwhelmingly, but not totally green as Malaysia lost half a percent. However, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Thailand all turned in over 1% to the upside. The rest showed lesser gains. Of note were massive gains in IPOs on the China’s NASDAQ-like ChiNext board. This follows a reform that allows IPOs to trade freely during the first 5 days of post-IPO trading. The same general situation is true in Europe this morning as only Athens shows red. However, the bulls are even stronger in Europe as the big 3 indices are all up about 2% as of mid-day. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a gap higher of between 0.82% (SPY) and 0.98% (DIA), with the QQQ in between.
There is no major economic news for Monday. There are also no major earnings on the day. However, the first of 2 hurricanes are expected to make landfall in the US, in MS or LA on Monday. (The other on Wednesday at an unknown gulf-coast location.)
On Friday the bulls had a nice day within the recent consolidation range in the large-caps. The tech-heavy Nasdaq continued their rally. There simply have been no bears to be seen for some time. That said, it still feels like markets have been drifting while they wait on political conventions and Congressional vacations to end. The trend still remains bullish, but the election-year summer doldrums have clearly been in effect. That may be ending this morning with the bulls looking to make another run toward the blue sky.
Continue to follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Don’t try to predict reversals or breakouts. Above all, remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich quick.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NKE, AMD, COST, YUM, JCI, QCOM, GLW, MAS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
As I mentioned yesterday, don’t expect the bulls to give up easily. After bears enjoyed a brief burst of energy, the bulls rushed back in pushing the tech sector to its 35th record high this year led by AAPL closing above a 2 trillion market cap for the first time in history. However, there is an interesting imbalance with the majority of the SP-500 stocks in decline, while the tech giants continue to lift the index. A unique COVID season condition that one has to wonder how much longer it can continue. I guess only time will tell, but it would be wise to remember bears still exist, and it would be foolish to become overly complacent.
Asian markets close the trading week on a bullish note rising modestly across the board overnight. European markets, however, trade flat to slightly lower this morning with disappointing PMI reading. US futures were bullish most of the night, but this morning has slipped slightly negative ahead of earnings, a PMI report, and Existing Home Sales. Plan your risk carefully as we slide into the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday Earnings calendar, we have a rather light day with just 18 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include BKE, DE, FL & PDD.
News & Technical’s
Though the bears began the day with a short burst of energy, the bulls stampeded back into control, pushing the NASDAQ up to its 35 record high this year. AAPL led the way yesterday closing for the first time above a 2 trillion market cap and showing no signs that the new high prices concern buyers. How much higher it can go is anyone’s guess. What is interesting is that we saw very few companies pushing the index higher yesterday as the vast majority continued to drift sideways or pullback. One has to wonder how much longer this unique COVID season condition lasts with such an extreme imbalance between the have’s, and the have not’s. That said, at this time, the indexes all remain in very bullish trends with equally bullish price patterns even as the Absolute Market Breadth Index continues to signal a significant divergence. While we continue to enjoy this impressive rally, never forget that the bears are still out there waiting for an opportunity to feed. Stay focused and plan carefully.
Higher than expected Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims caused a gap down at the open. However, the bulls stepped in immediately and rallied markets all day (give or take s sideways mid-day grind). The result was a Bullish Piercing Candle in the SPY and a Bull Engulfing signal in the QQQ. QQQ also printed another all-time high and all-time high-close. On the day, QQQ gained 1.39%, SPY gained 0.31%, and DIA was up just 0.16%. The VXX fell again to 24.50 and T2122 also fell to 37.40 (getting closer to the oversold territory). 10-year bond yields fell again to 0.651% and Oil (WTI) also fell a bit to $42.62/barrel.
During the day, a CA Appeals Court granted UBER and LYFT an extension on the date when they have to comply with a state order to treat drivers as employees. However, this reprieve lasts only until 5pm on August 25 unless the two companies submit written appeals to lower court ruling and the state regulation. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also finished his 2-days of testimony before the FTC as part of the agency’s antitrust investigation of FB. The FB testimony was the last of the major techs that are targets of the investigation as the CEOs of AMZN, AAPL, and GOOG all preceded Zuckerberg. (No word on when the investigation will be completed or any findings announced.)
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,746,534 confirmed cases and 177,438 deaths. While the new cases are down (still over 45,000) from the highs, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly at 47,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths per day. Other than the numbers, there was little news on this front domestically as US public attention has been diverted to other things like the end of summer, CA troubles, and politics. However, more colleges did announce outbreaks, the move to virtual classes, and/or at least pauses in sports. Among those Thursday were a number of small colleges along with East Carolina and Notre Dame (Football team outbreak).
Globally, the numbers rose to 22,891,444 confirmed cases and 797,665 deaths. In Brazil, despite a veto from their President, the Brazilian Congress wisely overrode the veto to order mandatory mask wearing. In Asia, South Korea they saw an 8th straight day of triple-digit new cases while Japan is also battling a new wave of cases. Japan has had more than a third of their total cases this month alone. However, in China, new cases are so under control that they have rolled back mask requirements in Beijing.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. Shenzhen, Taiwan, South Korea, and New Zealand were the leaders with over 1% up moves. However, markets in Europe are much more mixed and flatter so far Friday. The biggest movers so far are Russia (+0.64%) and Belgium (+0.49%). The 3 major bourses are all just on the red side of flat at mid-day. In the US, as of 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a very modest lower open this morning. None of the 3 major indices are pointing to even a gap down of two-tenths of a percent.
The major economic news for Friday is limited to August Mfg. PMI and August Service PMI (both at 9:45 am) and July existing Home sales (10 am). Major earnings are limited to DE, FL, and PDD before the open. There are no major earnings after the close.
On Thursday the bulls rallied back nicely from Wednesday’s black candles. There were no bears to be seen. However, it still feels like a drifting market which is waiting for political conventions and Congressional vacations to end or some other shoe to drop. The trend remains bullish but the summer doldrums are clearly in effect.
If we are trading today, all we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t forget to book some profits, because Friday is payday after all. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich quick.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PZZA, AMD, YUM, RCL, CAR, CVLT, LYV, FCX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The FOMC woke sleeping bears after using the term “economic uncertainly” due to the business impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. They also mentioned the need for more government stimulus, which we all know is likely on the way, assuming Congress will eventually get its act together once they get over point fingers at one another trying to assign blame to the other party. After a historic rally, a little resting consolidation or pullback is healthy for the market, assuming the bulls defend price support levels.
Asian markets closed in the red across the board after announcing they will resume trade talks with the US. European markets are also in a bearish mood this morning, reacting to the Fed statement of uncertainty. US Futures point to a lower open but have bounced off of overnight lows ahead of earnings and potentially market-moving economic reports.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have 32 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include BABA, BJ, EL< GFI, MLCO, & ROST.
News & Technical’s
Wednesday started strong setting new record highs and pushing AAPL briefly above 2 Trillion in market cap, but comments from the FOMC brought out some profit takers. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting used the words “economic uncertainty” ahead due to coronavirus business impacts. Honestly, I don’t understand how that could have been a surprise to the market, but it seems to have woke up the bears at least temporarily. The Fed also mentioned the need for more government stimulus, which is likely on the way, assuming Congress will eventually get its act together and come to an agreement. Chinas commerce ministry announced early Thursday that they would go back to the trade negotiation table with the US helping to lift US futures off of overnight lows.
Technically speaking, yesterday’s pullback should raise the awareness that the market will not go up forever, but so far, indexes remain in bullish trends and above price support levels. However, it should be no surprise that the markets are significantly extended, and consolidating rest or a pullback is overdue if only to allow moving averages to catch up. Healthy markets test support and trends, so don’t fear a possible pullback. Lowered prices set up new opportunities.
Wednesday saw a sideways grind all morning. After reaching all-time highs again early in the day, the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm gave us a steep selloff into the close. The Fed discussion told traders that the FOMC expects the virus to be a major overhang on the economy and “represents a considerable risk over the medium term” (18-24 months). On the day, SPY closed down 0.45%, DIA down 0.29%, and QQQ down 0.67%. The VXX rose slightly to 24.75 and T2122 fell to 40.52. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.685% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.82/barrel.
The state of CA continues to see several major plagues. Rolling power outages, more than 370 wildfires statewide, 110-degree temperatures, and a little virus pandemic to boot. On top of these, there are economic issues such as both UBER and LYFT shut down their CA operations. The ride-sharing duo of companies are threatening to shut down CA service permanently in the wake of the state declaring that their drivers are not independent contractors and must be treated as employees.
After the close Wednesday, Larry Kudlow (White House) told reporters “the President wants to prevent China from collecting some form of proceeds” from the forced sale of Byte Dance’s TikTok App North-American operations that the President has ordered. There was no word on how this would be done (since any sale would be a private transaction), although Kudlow said the fact it had never been done before does not mean it can’t be done now. This follows the President’s previous assertion that the US Government should get a significant cut of any deal since he was the one making any purchase possible through his orders. Perhaps a scary precedent for free markets when the government decides who can own what, forces sales, decides who gets paid and demands a cut of the deal. At the moment MSFT, ORCL, and TWTR are all in talks with Byte Dance over a purchase.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,701,390 confirmed cases and 176,365 deaths. While the new cases are down (over 46,000) from the highs, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly at 48,000 new cases and 1,030 deaths per day. So, there are hopeful trends in the US. However, Adm. Giroir (Admin. Testing Tzar) said that this hopeful situation “could turn around very quickly if we are not careful. We saw that after Memorial Day”. (He was referring to all the progress made through the May partial lockdown being lost in just a couple weeks when the states and public ignored reopening, mask and social distancing guidelines.)
Globally, the numbers rose to 22,607,156 confirmed cases and 791,622 deaths. Over in Europe, Spain, France, Germany, and Italy all reported a post-lock-down record increase in new cases on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sweden (which went the “herd immunity” route some support in the US), reported that it had the highest death count in more than 150 years during the first half of 2020. In Asia, South Korea had a 7th straight day of triple-digit new cases as its curve is growing exponentially again for the first time since February. On the sub-continent, India also continues to see exponential growth in cases, but the numbers are orders of magnitude larger in India with over 69,000 new cases and an average of 980 deaths on average.
Overnight, Asian markets were deep into the red Thursday as fear from the US-China Trade War, the Fed Minutes from July and new case growth in the region spook trades. South Korea and Taiwan set the pace, both down over 3.25%. The same thing is true so far today in Europe. European bourses are down across the board with the FTSE (-1.18%), CAC (-1.10%), and DAX (-1.01%) leading the way. In the US, as of 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly lower (a quarter percent or less) open this morning.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Quarles at 1 pm). Major earnings reports include BABA, BJ, and EL before the open. Then after the close ROST reports.
Wednesday’s black candles show resistance at the all-time highs remains significant in the SPY. However, the trend remains bullish in the SPY and QQQ with only the DIA doing anything resembling a pullback. I think this is partially summer doldrums, partially waiting on a stimulus deal, and partially due to waiting out the political conventions. In short, this week and next were destined to be good times for traders to take some time off.
Since we weren’t bright enough to join the vacationers, all we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, keep taking profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CSCHW, UBER, WEN, EBAY, HLF, TEAM, OSTK, PLNT, AA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
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🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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