Fueled by just a few tech giants, the market rallied on Monday in a somewhat choppy session even as the Absolute Breadth Index declined. MSFT and AAPl hit new record highs, and the QQQ had a new all-time closing high on Monday as is set to make another new high as the index gaps up this morning. Falling Existing Home Sales and rising COVID infections did nothing to dissuade the bulls from buying.
Asian markets closed in the green across the board in a will evening of trading due to peter Navarro’s comments on the US/China trade deal. European markets are decidedly bullish this morning, with the DAX up more than 2.5%. Ahead of PMI and New Home Sales US Futures point to a substantial gap up open that will likely ink a new record high in the Nasdaq.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have just six companies reporting. The only somewhat notable reports today is LZB.
Technically Speaking
Markets rallied yesterday with MSFT and AAPL reaching out to new record highs. According to the WHO we also set a new world record with more than 180,000 new coronavirus infections. In the US, we saw more than 31,000 new infections reported with Multiple US states experiencing rapidly rising hospitalizations. Protests in the park across the street from the White House attempted to pull down the statue of Andrew Jackson, and in Seattle, a protester held district of the Capitol Hill area now has the attention of Govoner due to the growing violence. We also had a very wild night in the futures market. Futures fell sharply after Peter Navarro was reported to have said the China Trade deal was dead. Later Navarro denies saying that stating the agreement isn’t over and the futures quickly recovered. Yesterday, AAPL announced IOS 14 is coming in September and reported their new iPhones and iPads would no longer include INTC chips. INTC is indicated higher this morning, go figure. Existing-Home Sales slumped substantially last month; however, it seems, any and all bad news only inspires the bulls to buy.
On a technical basis, the DIA and IWM remain below there 200-day averages, but it would appear this morning’s gap up will test them as resistance. The SPY will test the high of Friday’s selloff, and the QQQ will set a new record high at the open today. The Absolute Breadth Index declined on Monday as the majority of the index’s rally came in the big tech giants AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, FB, and NFLX. Although the VIX-X pulled back yesterday, it remains quite elevated even as the bulls push to new record highs, so stay on your toes as quick reversals and whipsaws are possible. Today will get readings on PMI and New Home sales with a very light day on the earnings front.
Monday was a blah summer day as markets shook off a small gap-down and trended to the bullish side in a volatile fashion, but in a smaller range, all day. The result gave us a white candle in the short-term downtrend, but no major change in sentiment. On the day SPY closed up 0.66%, DIA up 0.57%, and QQQ up 1.02% as AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG led the market. VXX fell to 35.09, the 10-year bond rose very slightly to 0.704%, and Oil (WTI) rose 2% to close at $40.60/barrel.
After hours SoftBank announced it will sell 65% of its stake in TMUS, which represents 198 million shares. TMUS said it would offer 134 million of those shares to the public and give 10 million additional shares to the underwriters of that IPO. That will represent an over 10% dilution of current outstanding shares.
White House Trade Advisor Navarro scared global markets (including US Futures) overnight when he told Fox News that “the China deal is over” (implying the trade deal was dead). However, both he and President Trump walked back the statement to say the deal is fully intact. Navarro’s clarification said the original statement was just supposed to indicate the White House does not trust the Chinese. Markets recovered after the denials and clarification.
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Also overnight, the President signed an executive order to freeze H1-B (tech workers), H2-B (low-skill workers), H-4 (worker spouse), L (intracompany transfer), and J (exchange worker/student) visas through the end of the year. The move is aimed at forcing jobs to go to US workers and will prevent 525,000 jobs from going to non-nationals. However, an administration source told CNBC that they actually expect only about 50,000 of those jobs to actually be filled by Americans. The US Chamber of Commerce and major tech companies oppose the rule and have said the move will stifle economic recovery.
On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 9,215,127 confirmed cases and 474,955 deaths. The WTO said world trade dropped by 18.5% in the second quarter as a result of virus-control measures. In Germany, a district has been locked back down related to the meatpacking plant outbreak as officials attack the problem in a stereotypical organized, and efficient manner. South Korea is also scrambling to clamp down on a second wave of outbreaks. On the opposite side of response, Brazil saw over 21,000 new confirmed cases Monday with a very spotty or non-existent government reaction.
In the US, we now have had 2,388,225 confirmed cases and 122,611 deaths. 12 states reported record high new cases among the 23 with rising rates. TX Governor Abbott told a presser that “additional tough measures are going to be necessary” if cases and hospitalizations continue to climb at current rates. LA said it will push back phase 3 of its reopening, originally scheduled for this week. Meanwhile, the CDC says it has developed a single test for both the coronavirus and the flu. When it is approved from the FDA, this single test will help ease testing infrastructure burden in the fall.
Overnight, Asian markets suffered the jolt of Navarro’s statements but ended mostly in the green. However, gains were uneven with most barely above flat while Hong Kong and India both gained over 1.5%. Malaysia, Indonesia, and New Zealand were the only red on the day. In Europe, we see green across the board (and much stronger green to boot). The DAX is up 2.69%, CAC up 1.66%, and FTSE up 1.26% so far today. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher, but they remain volatile and mixed. SPY is looks at +1.33%, DIA at +0.80%, and QQQ at +0.58%. However, as mentioned, these numbers are very volatile as traders wake up and absorb overnight news.
The major economic news for Tuesday includes June Mfg. PMI and June Service PMI (both at 9:45 am), and May New Home Sales (10 am). However, the only major earnings report on the day is INFO before the open.
It’s still early, but it is looking like markets want to rebound this morning, focused on recovery, and not the recent case increases. Be aware of that post-open data that may move markets. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you, because whipsaw has been the rule for some time. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).
Ed
There are no Trade Ideas for Friday. However, also be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Although health officials are very concerned about the rapid resurgence of coronavirus, the bulls appear ready to continue buying despite the possible impacts. They will have to overcome some bearish engulfing candles printed on Friday and an elevated VIX suggesting that price action will remain quite volatile. Though putting on a brave face this morning, I suspect the market will be quite sensitive to virus news so focused and ready for possible whipsaws and reversals.
Asian markets closed modestly lower overnight, and European markets are whipsawing this morning and currently red across the board as they monitor the coronavirus surge in the US. Here in the US Future point to a bullish open but have pulled back from morning highs as the bulls trying to say; virus, we don’t care about no stinking virus! I guess if can beat it will just try to ignore it, as we hope for more government stimulus.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On Monday’s earnings calendar, we have just 11 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include JKS and TTM.
Technically Speaking
During the weekend, the US saw surging coronavirus infections topping more than 30,000 on Saturday and Sunday. Health officials are concerned that some states could see a sharp rise this week, but as of now, the market appears completely unconcerned as US Futures rise. China announced it would suspend imports of poultry as a result of the Tyson plant coronavirus concerns. Airlines that have been bleeding money due to the pandemic have plans to expand flights in June and July and say they believe they will back to normal by the end of the year. There is concern spreading that it may be challenging to have a college football season this year as more and more players are becoming infected. On Friday, AAPL touched new record highs but triggered an afternoon selloff when they announced the closure of several stores in states where the virus is rapidly spreading.
The DIA left behind a bearish engulfing candle by Friday’s close, failing once again at the 200-day average. IWM also seems to be struggling near its 200-average but managed to hold above Thursday’s low. The SPY printed a bearish engulfing pattern while maintaining a stronger technical pattern, and the QQQ continues to lead the markets holding near record highs. I must admit to a bit of surprise that bulls seem oblivious to the spreading virus as they once again point to a gap up at the open. The VIX remains quite elevated, closing above a 35 handle on Friday, so expect the volatile price action to continue and sensitivity to virus-related news.
Markets saw a gap higher and then a volatile all-day selloff that may have been partially driven by quadruple witching on Friday. The result was a large Bearish Engulfing signal in both large-cap indices. The techs faired a bit better and none of the big 3 indices closed on the lows. On the day the SPY closed down 1.04%, DIA closed down 1.06%, and QQQ closed flat down 0.02%. The VXX was up a tad to 36.90 and the T2122 (4-week high-low ratio) fell strongly to 48.86 (mid-range). Oil (WTI) had been above $40 much of the day, but closed back at $39.57/barrel and the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.692%.
It is also worth noting that for the week the market was both volatile and bullish. Still, we do appear to be beginning a daily downtrend with a 6/8 high, 6/15 low, and a 6/16 lower-high. However, there is some potential support (including the 200sma in SPY) before we reach a new lower-low.
Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that both the Fed and Bank of England are strongly considering following the examples of Japan and Australia. Specifically, they are looking at using bond-buying to pin interest rates (control the yield curve at every maturity). This would be Central Banks actually coming out and saying “we are the buyer of last resort…financial market prices will not be allowed to fall.” It would cap interest rates (hurt savers), devalue the currency (in turn increasing commodity prices), and theoretically cause a surge in borrowing/spending. The same move was scorned for 4 (years since Japan did it) and mocked for decades before that as a recipe for an economic bubble and collapse. However, regardless of opinions or actual merits of the policy, there is no doubt that it would be massively bullish for stock markets. Despite the reports, there has been no public or official word by either Central Bank.
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In Virus news, the global headline numbers are 9,072,642 confirmed cases and 471,175 deaths. This includes a record of 180,000 new cases on Sunday. Germany, which has had its outbreak under control, has seen a major new outbreak at the country’s largest meat processing plant. The plant has found over 1,000 new cases among its 6,000 employees (and worse yet, had no address on file for one-third of the 6,000). This highlights the problems faced by meat processors like HRL, TSN, SAFM, and IBA. For example, China has halted imports of TSN meat products after a TSN plant outbreak in AR (693 cases). That said, the easing continues for the most part globally.
In the US, we now have had 2,356,715 confirmed cases and 122,249 deaths. 23 states had increasing rates on the week (10 of those had at least an increase of 50% over the number of new cases the prior week). This trend includes 2 straight days of the US reporting over 30,000 new cases (we had no reports over 29,000 since May 1st before Friday). However, the President told his Saturday rally that he has asked for the testing to be slowed down (to avoid finding more cases). This all comes as trends are showing a shift to more cases being found in younger populations as a lack of mask or social distancing is becoming more and more common while reopening gains speed.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red on news of the resurgence of cases in the US. However, the loses were not great and Shenzhen and India were the exceptions that managed to stay above break-even. In Europe, markets are following Asian with red across the board with the exceptions of Belgium, Greece, and Denmark which are just above flat so far today. US Futures were volatile overnight. At 7:30 am, those US futures are pointing to a 0.4% gap down in the DIA, a 0.3% gap down in the SPY, and a 0.2% gap down in the QQQ.
The major economic news for Monday is limited to May Existing Home Sales (10 am) and there are no major earnings reports on the day. It’s still early, but it is looking like markets want to continue the short-term downtrend on virus-impact fear. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you, because whipsaw has been the rule for some time. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).
Ed
There are no Trade Ideas for Friday. However, also be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After a lackluster day of price action heading into a quadruple witching Friday, the bulls say we don’t care about record increases in COVID infections and unemployment higher than expected. With this morning’s gap up, the DIA and IWM will test their 200-day averages as resistance, and the QQQ may reach out for another record high. That said, the VIX remains elevated, suggesting as we head into the weekend, the likelihood of high price volatility remains quite high.
Asian markets close the week on a positive note seeing green across the board. European markets are also trading in the green this morning across the board. US Futures points to a gap up open of more than 200 Dow points, and the Nasdaq will be very near all-time highs at the open. Keep the fear of missing out in check this morning as we pop into resistance highs at the open. Watch price action to see if there will be follow-through buying after the gap.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have a very light day with just 10 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include KMX & JBL.
Technically Speaking
Yesterday was a very lackluster day in the market after jobless claims came in higher than expected, but the bulls quickly absorbed any selling as the QQQ eked out the 5th straight day of gains. The DIA & IWM closed marginally lower with both below their respective 200-day averages. In a last-minute push by the bulls, the SPY that languished in the red all day closed up by 12 cents. Covid-19 infections hit record numbers in a few states yesterday. California, in reaction to the rapidly climbing numbers, now requires masks in all indoor spaces, and the CDC has raised death toll estimates in the US to more than 200,000. Royal Caribian cures lines reported losing 4 billion dollars last quarter and are looking to raise money to hold on by considering the sale of ships. Norigean cruise lines have suspended all sailings until September.
This morning the bulls suggest they don’t care about rising infection rates and higher than expected unemployment pushing for a gap up open on the quadruple witching day. That said, the VIX remains quite elevated closing just below a 33 handle suggesting there is a fear of the uncertainty, but for now, the bulls seem to have an unlimited capacity to ignore. At the open, the DIA and IWM will once again test their 200-day averages as resistance as the QQQ will aim for a new record high. Expect price volatility to remain high and be careful, chasing the morning gap that is so near index price resistance levels as we head into the weekend.
Thursday was another rollercoaster day for markets, but within a tight range compared to recent days. And just like a rollercoaster, after the ride, we ended up about where we started. The SPY gained 0.04%, the DIA fell 0.14%, and the QQQ gained 0.27%. The VXX fell just a bit to 36.31 and T2122 fell to 66.15. Oil (WTI) was unchanged and the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.707%.
Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected at 1.5 million. However, the market shrugged that off with only a slight gap down. HTZ also called off its controversial secondary offering after the SEC questioned an IPO by a bankrupt company.
On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 8,607,857 confirmed cases and 456,943 deaths. A new study out of China (journal published Thursday) found that coronavirus antibodies may only last 2-3 months post-infection. However, this was a small study, based on only 37 people. Meanwhile, Brazil saw a 2.4% increase in cases and a 2.7% increase in deaths on Thursday and will cross the million case mark today. In the UK, they have dumped their own contact tracing App (only could identify 4% of iPhones in tests) and have gone with the GOOG/AAPL joint venture App (finds 99% of all phones) instead.
$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147
In the US, we now have 2,263,756 confirmed cases and 120,688 deaths reported to date. AZ, FL, CA, SC, and TX all saw record-high single day increases in cases on Thursday. FL saw a 3.9% increase in new cases while TX cases also jumped again by 3.6% along with a seventh straight day of record hospitalizations. Houston was hit particularly hard as its hospitalizations jumped 12% Thursday. Governors in FL and TX have so far tried to brush off the increases as nothing more than the result of more testing and groups of migrant workers. The data does not support those claims.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. China was the leader and Singapore the only 1% loser. In Europe, the same is true with the big 3 (CAC, DAX, FTSE) all up over 1% at this point in the day. US Futures climbed overnight on reports China will increase its US Ag-product purchases to stay in-line with the trade deal. At 7:30 am, those US futures are pointing to a gap higher of 0.8%-1%.
The major economic news for Friday is limited to a number of FOMC speakers including Rosengren (10:15 am), Chair Powell (12 pm), and Mester (1 pm). Treasury yields did move higher overnight in front of those 3 speeches. However, Friday is also a Quadruple-Witching day and that may well move prices at day end. Major earnings reports are very limited with only JBL and KMX reporting before the open.
It is looking like the bulls want to make a push at week’s end. However, intraday swings are the norm. As mentioned, beware of pinning and other odd moves or volume related to quad-witching in the afternoon. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you and be prepared for the whipsaw. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go). Plan the trade and trade the plan. And remember that Friday is payday.
Ed
There are no Trade Ideas for Friday. However, also be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Yesterday saw very choppy price action as the market grappled with concerns of rising coronavirus infections and hospitalizations. However, with central banks continuing to inject trillions of dollars into the markets, the bears struggle to find traction. While some are beginning to call the current rally, a bubble others continue with the mantra, don’t fight the fed! With the VIX holding above a 30 handle, we should continue to expect the challenging price volatility to continue as we wait for the next round of jobless numbers.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as outbreak concerns weigh on investors. European markets are trading modestly lower across the board this morning. Ahead of the light day of earnings reports and jobless claims, US Futures point to modest declines at the open.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have just 11 companies reporting quarterly results as the 2nd quarter season winds down. Looking through the list, I can only find one marginally notable report today coming from SWBI.
Technically Speaking
Buyers and sellers seemed to be somewhat in agreement yesterday as market largely chopped sideways. The internet giants rose while the vast majority of companies struggled with the Absolute Breadth Index declining. Futures saw some modest selling during the evening but have since rallied after a report our of China saying they have new the coronavirus outbreak under control. The shutting down of about half the flights in and out of Beijing would seem to be in contradiction. US virus infections continued to rise yesterday, with more than 26,000 new cases reported. Hot spots include Texas, Arizona, Florida & California. The Bank of England voted to add another 100 billion to its bond-buying program as central banks continue unprecedented operations to combat the impacts of the coronavirus.
Although the DIA and IWM remain above there 50-day averages and longer-term trends, yesterday’s price action left behind the potential of a lower high price pattern. The IWM pattern failed at the daily-200 average, leaving behind the possibility of a short-term head and shoulders pattern. With the SPY closing the day well above its 200-day averages and the QQQ eking out another bullish day, both hold much stronger technical patterns. That said, shorting amid all the central bank operations around the world is a bit like trying to swim up a fast-flowing river! Today we will get another reading on jobless claims, but the market seems to have clearly demonstrated that unemployment will not get in the way of this bullish optimism. Expect another day of price volatility at the VIX remains quite elevated closing yesterday just above a 33 handle.
It was another rollercoaster Wednesday that ended on a pullback. Black-body candles were the norm, but the tech-heavy QQQ was notably more indecisive (wicky) than the others. For the day, SPY fell 0.42%, DIA fell 0.76%, and QQQ was up 0.32%. The VXX was flat at 36.98 and T2122 fell back out of the overbought territory to 77.08. The 10-year bond yield fell slightly to 0.728% while Oil (WTI) also dropped to $37.73/barrel.
During the day the SEC told HTZ they had concerns about the bankrupt company issuing another IPO. In response, HTZ suspended its planned $500 million secondary offering. Fed Chair Powell also told the House they will gradually move from buying bond ETFs to individual corporate bonds. He also urged Congress (and the Administration) not to pull back too early on relief for households and small businesses.
On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 8,465,631 confirmed cases and 451,933 deaths. Reuters reported that China canceled domestic flights in/out of Beijing in further signs of the lockdown intended to stop the current outbreak, but only 21 more new cases were reported in the city. However, the worst impacts are in South America, where Chile tightened its lockdown on an increase in cases, Chile’s President went into preventative quarantine after staff infections and Brazil reported that new cases topped 31,000 again.
$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147
In the US, we now have 2,234,854 confirmed cases and 119,943 deaths reported to date. 10 states saw their highest number of new cases on Wednesday. These ten from among the 21 states that saw increases. TX was perhaps the worst of those, with a new case rate increase of 3.4% and a staggering one-day jump of 11% in virus hospitalizations. Yet in NY, NYC is on track to reopen many businesses on Monday.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time mostly red. China and Taiwan eked out a very small gain, but India had a 2% up day. In Europe, we are seeing red across the board with the lone exception of Portugal being just on the green side of flat at this point. At 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mildly lower open.
The major economic news for Thursday includes is limited to Initial Jobless Claims and Jun Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and FOMC Member Mester speaks again (12:15 pm). However, CMC, DBI, KR, RGS, and SWBI all report before the open.
It’s still early, but it is looking like markets want to take a rest, perhaps with a small pullback early in the day. However, Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Index could well give markets a push one way or the other. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you as whipsaw has been the rule for some time. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).
Ed
There are no Trade Ideas for today. However, be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
As stats reopen their economies, consumers were out in force shopping according to the retail sales number. Although they remain sharply lower year over year, the bulls produced a massive gap at the open that proved to be very volatile are the coronavirus brings new China restrictions. Here in the US, governor’s remove restrictions on restaurants and health clubs, several states reported a record number of infections yesterday. The VIX remains elevated as the market continues to rally, creating extreme price volatility intraday to challenge even the most adept day trader skills.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher as the IMF warns of an unprecedented crisis. European markets have fluctuated this morning but currently point to modest gains across the board as US Futures once again suggest a substantial gap up open. Stay focused on price action and remain very flexible with such high price action volatility.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Hump Day earnings calendar, we have a light day with 12 companies stepping up to report quarterly reports. Looking through the list, I only see one marginally notable report from ABM.
Technically Speaking
Fueled by much better than expected retail sales, the already bullish futures lept higher at the open. Though consumers returned to shopping with a vengeance raising hope of the recovery, the year over year numbers still needs a lot of improvement. News that China is implementing another round of restrictions with a resurgence of coronavirus cane close to reversing the bullish intraday, but the bulls charged back in before the close of day. Although the reopening of the economy has the bulls out in force, it is coming at a high cost, with several states reporting a record number of COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations yesterday. Should this trend continue, it will make a recovery very challenging for all struggling retail business. However, there was positive news of a treatment that, in a preliminary test, shows signs of improving the survivability of those hospitalized.
At the close yesterday, the DIA recovered and held just above its 200-day average while IWM remains challenged by this key resistance. The SPY closed well above its 200-day, attempting to test the island reversal pattern created on the June 11th gap down. The QQQ remains by far the most resilient of indexes lead by the internet giants, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOG & FB. The T2122 indicator is once again signaling a short-term extended condition with the Dow recovering more than 1400 points in just 2-days of trading. Although the VIX has pulled back the last couple of days, it remains very elevated closing above a 33 handle as the extreme price volatility continues to keep the danger level high. The enormous overnight reversal gaps and the rapid intraday price swings have made the market particularly dangerous for retail traders. They are either forced to hold and pray, suffering whatever the market hands out, stand on the sidelines, or attempt day trading the extreme volatility. Its no surprise there is another gap expected this morning, but what comes next in Coronaland is anyone’s guess.
Another day, another gap and fade. Markets opened just under 3% higher on the hope of more stimulus and an unexpected May Retail Sales beat. However, as usual of late, traders then sold off hard to begin the all-day volatile rollercoaster. The day ended on a last-minute climb giving us black-bodied candles with long lower wicks across the board. (You decide whether you want to call them Hanging Men.) On the day the SPY gained 1.86%, the DIA gained 2.06%, and the QQQ gained 1.72%. VXX fell back to 36.87 and T2122 climbed back into the overbought territory at 93.75. Oil (WTI) closed up as energy led markets most of the day, ending at $38.11/barrel and the 10-year bond yield rose to 0.75%.
Fed Chair Powell downplayed the $750 billion corporate bond-buying program when he testified before the Senate Tuesday. However, he also signaled that the backstop was in place and that when markets weren’t buying up the bonds, the Fed would step in (i.e. let the market determine the pace of Fed purchases). The part that may scare traders is when he said if the market continues to improve, the Fed would be happy to slow or stop buying. So, he promised a backstop…not additional buying pressure.
On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 8,287,295 confirmed cases and 446,667 deaths. The big news is a UK study that found a cheap steroid that improves the survival rate of the worst cases by 30%. This is great news, but preliminary as another study found that the previously touted hydroxychloroquine may actually reduce the effectiveness of Remdesivir (the only treatment proven to help). In Brazil, the virus rages out of control as they reported over 34,000 cases on the day (an increase of 66% over the Monday). Meanwhile, China is continuing the fast clamp down on the new outbreak, including more intensive testing of imported meat after it was discovered a majority of the recent cases were people who were processing imported salmon.
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In the US, we now have 2,208,486 confirmed cases and 119,133 deaths reported to date. TX has seen a 66% increase in virus cases since Memorial Day, including yet another daily high in new cases Tuesday. FL also saw a 3.6% increase in cases on the day. However, CA saw only a 1.4% increase, the smallest increase in cases in that state in 3 weeks.
In the US, we now have 2,182,979 confirmed cases and 118,286 deaths reported to date. 23 states have seen an increase in cases over the last week. TX reported its 6th record-high number of hospitalizations in the last week on Monday, but the increase was lower than the 7-day average increase. CA saw a decrease in positive test results (to 4.5%) as of last Friday. Meanwhile, AR Governor Hutchinson issued executive orders protecting businesses in the state from virus liability.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the green. Japan and India being the 2 that showed red, but South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Shanghai were all barely on the green side. Europe is showing a similar situation with the big 3 (FTSE, DAX, CAC) up between half and one percent. However, some of the minor bourses (Greece, Finland, and Sweden) are in the red, while some of the others are not that far into the green at this point in their day. At 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to another gap higher of between 0.5%-1.0%.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes May Building Permits, and May Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Chair Powell testifying (12 pm), and FOMC Member Mester speaks (4 pm). However, there are no major earnings announcements at all on the day.
It’s still early, but as of now, we’re looking at another significant gap this morning. The gap higher at the open should take us back to challenge Tuesday’s highs. If we can clear that, we’ll be back in the Island Reversal gap. Stay focused on the short-term chart. However, the bulls seem to be calling the tune this morning. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).
Ed
There are no Trade Ideas for today. However, be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
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