Blog - Page 202 of 650 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Slow News Day Follows Record August

September 1, 2020 by Ed Carter

Monday was a day of divergence in the major indices. The SPY had a tiny gap down and then chopped sideways all day. The DIA gapped down a bit more and then followed through a bit before grinding sideways all afternoon. Meanwhile, QQQ gapped up and rallied more-or-less all day on the back of the TSLA and AAPL split moves. On the day, SPY closed down 0.22%, DIA down 0.89%, and QQQ up 0.80%. The VXX rose almost 5% to 26.85 and T2122 fell all the way back to 42.34. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.705% and Oil (WTI) was down just a touch to $42.81/barrel. This capped the strongest August market in decades. During the month the S&P500 rose more than 7%, the most since August 1984.

Change is coming I’m afraid. During the day, AMZN, joined UPS and GOOG as firms who have been given FAA approval for drone deliveries beyond the line of sight of the pilot. AMZN told CNBC it was not yet ready for its drone fleet to begin the deliveries, but this is another step toward 30-minute delivery of packages up to 5 pounds soon. UPS has already done CVS prescription deliveries in one high-end FL suburb and GOOG has been doing drone delivery to a VA town since last October.

WMT announced it will launch its Walmart+ membership program on September 15. While the company claims the program is not designed to compete with any other service, it is seen far and wide as a direct competitor to the AMZN Prime membership. Prices of the two services are similar ($119/yr. or $12.99/mo. for Prime and $98/yr. or $12.95/mo. For Walmart+), but Prime includes free two-day shipping and other services like video streaming while the WMT offering includes gas discounts (up to 5 cents/gallon) and expedited in-store checkout.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,212,174 confirmed cases and 187,742 deaths. While 26 states reported an increasing number of new cases, the overall national number remains far below the 7-day average at “just” 38,560 new cases Monday.

Globally, the numbers rose to 25,662,163 confirmed cases and 855,352 deaths. Europe reported a 6% spike in cases last week, led by a 21% increase in Spain, 16% in Russia, and 10% increase in France. In Asia, a private survey found that Chinese manufacturing PMI rose faster in August than it has in over 10 years (at 53.1 vs. 52.7 expected).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but the big-economy indices were all in the green as South Korea, China, and India led and Japan was flat. With the exception of the FTSE (whish is down 1.2% at mid-day), all the European bourses are in the green so far. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a divergent open. The Dow Futures imply a DIA open that is flat, S&P futures imply a SPY open up three-tenths of a percent and Nasdaq futures imply a QQQ open up 0.90%.

The only major economic news for Tuesday is August Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), August ISM PMI (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Brainard at 1 pm). There are also no major earnings reports on the day.

Just prior to publishing this blog, TSLA announced they will sell an additional $5 billion of stock following its 5-for-1 split apparently to take advantage of the rally and very high valuation.

Markets are pointing to a desire to follow-through on a record-breaking August. As has been the case, we remain extended above the moving averages, but only the DIA shows even a hint of a bear being around. And even that index is holding a strong bullish trend. So, follow the trend, but don’t chase moves you have missed. Stick with your rules and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NIO, SQ, AMD, FB, KMB, MKC, JNJ, MCHP, KO, PG, VXX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Tremendous August Performance

August 31, 2020 by Doug Campbell

The tremendous August market performance looks to finish strong this morning with 3-new companies trading on the Dow as well as new shares from the stock split in AAPL and TSLA. Coming as the biggest August rally since 1986, the question is, can the bullishness continue with a 3-day weekend on the horizon. Stay focused, be careful not to over-trade and extended market and remember bears still exist even though we’ve not seen them for quite a long time.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight, but European markets trade higher this morning inspired by the very dovish Fed. US Futures point to modest gains at the open but could easily add fresh new records as the bulls continue to ride the wave of governmental stimulus.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the last day of August 2020, we have 12 companies repoing quarterly results. Notable reports include SCSC, BAM & ZM.

News & Technical’s

On our last day of August, we have three new companies trading on Dow with APPL and TSLA trading with new shares after splitting their stocks. Historically August is not a great month for the markets, but this year August will end with its most robust performance since 1986 amid unprecedented governmental intervention. The magnitude of the market recovery is nothing short of remarkable considering the national GDP is a negative 31 with 1 in 3 Americans unemployed. According to reports, the FDA is ready to fast track coronavirus vaccine ahead of phase three trials breaking with its typical protocols. Yesterday, India set a new world record, reporting more than 73,000 new infections in a single day. The violent protests in Portland, Oregon, that have gone on for 3-months turned deadly this weekend with a shooting. Killing each other over political ideology is nothing new, but it’s a shame how divided and weaker we are as a nation as a result.

With bullish and fresh new records on Friday, the Futures point to bullish open. Although the index appears stretched, there is at this time no price action clues of bearishness beginning. However, with a 3-day weekend on the horizon, a declining Absolute Breadth Index, as well as a stubbornly elevated VIX, traders should not become complacent. Bears still exist and could attack at any time, so stay focused and flexible.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Payroll Taxes and Tiktok Sale Lead News

August 31, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday was an up-and-down day, more or less within the range of the opening gap-up, until a late-day rally closed markets near their highs…at least in the SPY. Again, the SPY closed at an all-time high. Meanwhile, both the DIA and QQQ printed another gap-up Spinning Top type indecisive candle. On the day, SPY gained 0.64%, DIA was up 0.52%, and QQQ was up 0.58%. The VXX was flat at 25.79 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio rose back into the overbought territory at 86.88. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.724% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.98/barrel.

Friday evening the IRS issued guidelines on the Payroll Tax deferral. Those guidelines say the taxes must be paid, by employers, by April 30. So, it puts the responsibility to collect deferred taxes on the employers. Normal Payroll Tax Withholding will resume on January 1 and it will then be up to the businesses to either pay the deferred tax from company funds or to otherwise get the money back from the employees whose taxes went uncollected for 4 months. This may dramatically mute or eliminate the impact of the President’s scheme to get a short-term boost to consumer spending as companies may not want to take on the risk of being on the hook for taxes the employee is unwilling or unable to repay.

On Saturday it was reported that WMT has teamed up with MSFT to jointly bid against ORCL for the purchase of TikTok North American operations. This was an odd move in that MSFT wanted that asset for themselves until the ORCL bid significantly raised the price…and also because WMT is not in the social media business. Another 11th-hour bid was also made by investment firm Centricus. Then Sunday, the next shoe fell in the US-China trade war. China tightened its laws and now the sale of those North American operations (by Chinese company Byte Dance) will require the approval of the Chinese government. In fact, it is reported that China’s approval may be needed even for negotiations to continue. All this while a Trump-imposed deadline for the sale approaches.

On Sunday, Bloomberg reported that China’s biggest banks have reported the largest profit decline in over a decade as loan defaults are weighing on profitability. The four largest Chinese banks (all Hong Kong Listed) reported loan loss provision increases of up to 97%. As a result, the stocks of those banks are trading at less than half of book value. This is only relevant in that many analysts see the Chinese economy as leading the US economy by about a quarter in pandemic impact owing to the relative lateness of the US response (shutdown) versus the Chinese shutdown. So, this could theoretically offer some forecast for major US banks in the coming quarter.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,175,008 confirmed cases and 187,227 deaths. New cases reported fell dramatically (as has been the norm) on the weekend. However, 21 states (mostly Midwestern) are seeing case growth of 5% or more on the 7-day average this week. The US also saw its first confirmed case of reinfection as DNA test show a 25-year-old Nevada man was hospitalized and then tested positive in mid-April. He then got better and had two negative tests at the end of April. However, he was hospitalized again in late May and tested positive again. (It took almost 3 months for DNA analysis to prove it was multiple infections and not the same one.)

Globally, the numbers rose to 25,416,064 confirmed cases and 851,099 deaths. On Sunday, India reported a new record high (passing the US’ worst day by 1,500) with 78,761 new confirmed cases. It took 6 months for the mega-population country to reach 1 million cases and 3 weeks to then reach 2 million. Despite this, as régimes are wont to do, India is pressing ahead with reopening measures. Japan and South Korea also report increasing outbreaks, but their crises are measured in hundreds instead of tens of thousands per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were solidly in the red, with Japan being the only market to make it into the green (possibly on Berkshire buying a stake in Japan’s 5 largest trading firms). China was down less than half a percent, but South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and most of the smaller markets were down well over 1% on the day. Exactly the opposite is true in Europe, where only the holiday-closed FTSE did not make it to the green, Everything else is well into positive territory, though none of them have reached +1.00% as of mid-day. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly higher open across the board with moves of 2-3-tenths of a percent implied now.

The only major economic news for Monday is a Fed speaker (Clarida at 9 am). There are also no major earnings reports on the day.

Markets continue to be extended from their trendlines, but there is no doubting those trends are bullish…and there have been no bears to be seen for quite some time. The rally continues to be strong and extended (from averages), but the bears have shown no sign of having the energy to step in for quite some time. So, don’t go predicting any reversals. Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed. (Another one will come along any minute.) Stick to your rules, process, and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: EMR, IT, DOW, GLW, NLOK, MCHP, MNST, NWS, TGT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

A little turmoil, brewing?

August 28, 2020 by Doug Campbell

A new record high in the SP-500 but an intra-day whipsaw and a rising VIX could suggest a little turmoil is brewing under the surface. As we head into a big day of data, the market is hoping to get more clarity and forward guidance on continued aggressive asset purchases from the Jackson Hole symposium. The bulls have enjoyed an incredible run producing the best August for the SP-500 since 1986. Heading into the weekend stay focused and plan your risk carefully yesterday’s turbulence may signal profit-taking could begin at any time.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight after hearing there longer serving Prime Minister will step down citing health concerns. European markets are also mixed but mostly lower this morning as US Futures continue to drive higher with the Dow pointing to a gap up of 100 points but a relatively flat NASDAQ.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Friday earnings calendar is a relatively light day with just 12 companies reporting. Notable reports include BIG & HIBB.

News & Technical s

The new Fed policy that will allow inflation to rise above 2% by keeping interest rates very low for an extended time was approved by the market with a new record high in the SP-500. However, there was some volatility during the day with an intra-day whipsaw that the bulls managed to defend by the close of the day. With the Jackson Hole symposium continuing today the markets are hoping to hear more forward guidance from the Fed and a commitment to continue aggressive asset purchases. With all the warm a fuzzy talk and massive amounts of newly printed money, the SP-500 is headed for it best August since 1986 despite 1 in 3 unemployed Americans. Interestingly the VIX rallied briefly above 26 handles settling at the close in the mid 24’s, indicating investors remain nervous that another market dip is possible.

The technicals of the daily index charts remain very bullish; however, the intra-day whipsaw, a falling absolute market breadth index, and rising VIX may suggest a little trouble under the surface of this historic recovery rally. With a big day of possible news-driven price action and the weekend just around the corner, plan your risk carefully and don’t be surprised if profit-taking picks up to capture the gains of this very bullish week. Have a wonderful weekend, everyone.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Digesting and Spinning The Fed Change

August 28, 2020 by Ed Carter

Stocks began Thursday with a modest gap higher that was met with an immediate selloff back below the prior close. That started a rollercoaster day that ended up not far from where it began as all 3 major indices printed gap-up, indecisive candles. On the day, SPY was up 0.22%, QQQ down 0.31%, and DIA up 0.59%. The gain left the SPY at another all-time high close. The VXX gained a bit back up to 25.70 and T2122 climbed a bit to 67.72 (still in the mid-range). 10-year bond yields rose strongly to 0.746% as buyers sought safety in bonds. Oil (WTI) fell almost a percent to $43.00/barrel.

As expected, prior to the open Fed Chair Powell announced that the FOMC will now use an “Average Inflation Target.” This means the Fed will let inflation run well past the 2% target without action until full employment is achieved. He also implied that the FOMC will let unemployment run below its target before taking action on inflation. This set of announcements did have an immediate impact on bond yields and helped bank stocks as investors started to expect inflation.

At the close, House Speaker Pelosi announced she had held a 25-minute call with White House Chief of Staff Meadows. However, she also said no progress was made and there remains a “tragic impasse” between the two sides. Political blame games followed from both parties. This comes as leaks are suggesting the Senate Republicans are trying to agree amongst themselves on a “mini stimulus” bill that is only half the size of their August proposed $1 billion negotiating position. Just as the Senate Republicans had said the Democrat plan from May was a non-starter and would not even be considered, the Democrats in the House are likely to do the same with a Republican mini bill…assuming the Republicans can agree to it among themselves. Again, just political posturing on both sides here.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,048,404 confirmed cases and 184,834 deaths. New cases edged up again Thursday to 46,286 (above the 7-day average again) and new deaths fell back to 1,143 for the day (also still above the 7-day average). Meanwhile, airlines continue to threaten layoffs with AAL saying they will cut 40,000 jobs (mostly from buyouts and early retirements) and now UAL saying they will cut 3,000 pilots, both to take place at the end of Federal-aid…unless they get another $25 billion in aid as an industry.

Globally, the numbers rose to 24,661,422 confirmed cases and 836,338 deaths. In Europe, Germany is introducing tougher virus control measures as cases continue to rise. This includes fines for not wearing a mask in any public space, bans on large gatherings, required isolation after returning from high-risk areas. On the vaccine front, both Japan and Germany announced they are working on contracts to secure enough multi-dose vaccines for all their citizens by mid-2021. Speaking of Japan, PM Abe resigned last night due to unspecified health concerns of his own.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again. China led the gainers adding between 1.5% and 2%. Meanwhile, Japan and Australian paced the losers down about 1%. Europe is also mixed so far today, but leans to the red side. The biggest gainer is Belgium (+0.37%) while the biggest loser is Sweden (-1.00%). The 3 major European bourses are all just on either side of flat. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly higher open in the large-caps and a dead-flat open in the QQQ.

The major economic news for Friday includes July Personal Consumption, July Trade Balance, July Personal Spending, July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and the virtual Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues. Major earnings reports are limited to BIG before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

The rally continues to be strong and extended (from averages), but the bears have shown no sign of having the energy to step in for quite some time. The wait for the political conventions to be over is done and the question is whether the market will now wait until after Labor Day to return or maybe come back next week. Just remember we have had a couple of gap-up indecisive candles in a row now. So, use a little extra caution about getting “too long” into the weekend.

With that said, despite some extension, the trend remains bullish any which way you look at the chart. So, don’t go predicting a reversal to the downside either. Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed. Stick to your rules, process, and work to consistently lock-in your profits and reduce risk. Also, don’t forget to take some off the table today…Friday is payday after all.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CCL, CPRI, FSM, FCX, PVH, BSX, ALLY, NOC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Holding Their Breath

August 27, 2020 by Doug Campbell

After another record-setting day, world markets seem to be holding their breath this morning as we wait for the Feds new policy speech. With all eyes focused on Jerome Powell, how the market perceives the new stance on inflation may well extend this rally higher or bring out the bears. If that’s not enough to digest, the market has a damaging hurricane to keep track of, significant day earnings reports, as well as GDP and Jobless data. Stay on your toes; today is not the time to become complacent.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight. European markets see red across the board this morning as they trade cautiously awaiting the Powell remarks. US Futures currently point to lower open, but anything is possible, so remain focused and flexible.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have the biggest day of reports this week, with more than 40 companies fessing up to results. Notable reports include DG, FLWS, ANF, BILL, BURL, CM, COTY, DXLG, DLTR, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, OLLI, SAFM, TD, YLTA, VEEV, VMW, & WDAY.

News & Technical’s

The majority of the countries’ refining capacity has been shuttered and locked-down as hurricane Laura pummels the Lousiana and Texas coast. They are calling this an unsurvivable system with a storm surge estimate that could reach 30 to 40 miles inland, putting millions of homes at risk. While keeping an eye on storm damages, the market has a big day of information to digest, with the biggest being the Fed chairman’s speech at Jackson Hole, where its expected he will layout a new inflation policy. How the market perceives this speech could inspire the markets higher or bring out the bears should Powell fall short of expectations. That in its self is plenty to deal with, but before the speech, we will get a reading on the GDP and Jobless Claims, not to mention the biggest day of earnings results this week.

Bullish trends continued to stretch out yesterday with the SP-500 and NASDAQ once again setting new records. Markets around the world seem to be holding their breath this morning as we wait for the Fed speech. No pressure Jerome, only the future direction of the market is at stake. Stay focused and flexible, remembering that what goes up will eventually come down, so don’t become complacent.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Jerome and Laura Will Call The Next Tune

August 27, 2020 by Ed Carter

The bulls ran wild on Wednesday as the massive tech names (CRM, NFLX, FB, TSLA, etc.) pulled the SPY and QQQ to yet another all-time high close. Larger than expected July Durable Goods orders also helped. While the QQQ candle looks a lot like a blow-off top, it did this on only average volume. Regardless, on the day, the QQQ gained 2.13%, SPY gained 1.00%, and DIA gained 0.29%. Contrary to the large-caps, the IWM lost 0.63%. The VXX also gained to 24.93 and T2122 fell dramatically to the mid-range at 57.06. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.688% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $43.42/barrel.

Overnight hurricane Laura began pounding the state of LA with sustained 150mph winds and a 20-foot storm surge. While it was a Category 4 when it hit, 4 hours after making landfall the storm has now been downgraded to a Category 2 (110mph winds). Forecasters say they are expecting a 15-foot storm surge to make it 30 miles inland. Widespread and extensive economic damage is expected as the area hit is filled with Oil, Gas and Chemical plant and infrastructure. And with so many dangerous substances in this path, the potential for significant environmental damage is also in play.

That said, all eyes in the market are on the Jackson Hole Virtual Central Banker Symposium where Fed Chair Powell speaks at 9:10am. Leaks have been reported the last couple days forewarning us that he will announce a dramatic shift in FOMC policy. This shift will let inflation significantly overshoot the 2% target without action until the goal of full employment is met. (This would overturn policy dating back to the start of the Reagan Administration and then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker.) However, the market is also expecting the announcement of specific programs under this new policy (for being capitalist markets, we sure do love our government handout money). So as always, it won’t be the general news, but the specifics and the reaction that matters in the market.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,001,103 confirmed cases and 183,667 deaths. New cases edged up Wednesday to 44,6637 and new deaths remained just under 1,300 for the day. However, the 7-day averages have come down a touch to 42,658 and 966 per day. ABT won emergency approval for a cheap ($5) and fast (15 min.) virus test. Since granted approved, the test will start shipping in later September with full production levels reached in October. In HI, a 2-week “stay at home” order has been issued on the island of Oahu, effective today.

Globally, the numbers rose to 24,364,884 confirmed cases and 830,360 deaths. South Korea reported the highest number of new cases since March. However, it was the surge to almost 76,000 new cases on the day in India that was most alarming. Still, remember this number must be weighed against both testing and reporting that most expect dramatically under-reporting and the fact that India has over 1.3 billion people.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned modestly higher. South Korea Hong Kong and Singapore led to the downside, while Shenzhen was the only major gainer. The remaining markets were mostly green, but only modestly so. However, European markets are modestly red across the board while waiting on J. Powell’s speech. The 3 major bourses show FTSE -0.18%, DAX -0.31%, and CAC -0.46% as of mid-day. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a mildly down open across the board. However, again this is just a placeholder until Powell’s speech and perhaps the Q2 GDP read.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Preliminary Q2 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (9:10 am), and July Pending Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports include ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, and TD all before the open. Then after the close DELL, GPS, HPQ, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY report.

The rally really kicked into overdrive Wednesday but did so on only average volume. This lower volume might be a good thing, in that it may mean the exuberance is not completely widespread (meaning we may not be seeing a blowoff top). Regardless, it is clear markets are extended from the T-line 17ema or whatever other averages you follow. So, use a little extra caution about getting “too long.”

With that said, the trend still remains strongly bullish. So, despite some extension, don’t go predicting a reversal to the downside either. (We have to remember that markets can stay “wrong” a lot longer than we can stay solvent being right too early.) Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, remember, trading is a job. We must obey our rules, stick to the process, and work to be consistently profitable.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: FCX, VIAC, EBAY, MDLZ, STZ, KO, ADI, GLW, PLNT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Record Highs

August 26, 2020 by Doug Campbell

More record highs in the SP-500 & NASDAQ indexes as the Absolute Breadth Index continues to decline. Although this divergence is a bit troubling, the bullish trends and price patterns in the indexes remain bullish. The VIX is also a little perplexing stubbornly holding above 20 handles as the market stretches higher. However, the upcoming speech from Jerome Powell that’s likely to layout a new inflation policy that will keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future may well inspire the bulls even higher in the days ahead.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight. European markets trade mixed and cautiously flat this morning as they wait on the Fed policy speech. US Futures ahead of earnings, a Durable Good report, and a possibly damaging hurricane bearing down on the gulf coast point to cautiously flat open today.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have 21 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include WSM, BILI, BOX, CHS, DKS, EV, EXPR, HEI, LCI, NTAP, PTR, RY, & SPLK.

News & Technical’s

Yesterday we heard about layoffs from Delta Airlines, and today American Airlines says it will cut up to 19,000 jobs when the Federal-aid expires in October. In the restructure plan Bed Bath & Beyond said they would cut 2800 as impacts from the pandemic continue to mount for US business. However, a look at the index charts, and it appears the need for employment is no longer a requirement for a healthy economy as the NASDAQ and the SP-500 set new record highs. Gas futures are on the rise as hurricane Laura intensifies and takes direct aim on the Texas coast. Evacuations are underway as the oil and gas industry shuts down with the damaging storm set to make landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday. CRM saw a nice bump up yesterday after learning it would be added the Dow average, but after the bell, the stock soared higher on the back of a strong earnings report. The stock is indicated to gap nearly 15% higher at today’s open.

Index trends remain very bullish, and though we saw just a little selling the Dow yesterday, the price patterns remain very strong. Overnight futures were a bit muted, and this morning point to a relatively flat open ahead of earnings reports and a Durable Goods number that consensus suggests will show a substantial decline. That said, the market has its focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the Fed chair is likely to roll out a new Fed inflation policy that will keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Still Pushing Amidst Fed Watch

August 26, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Tuesday on hope of more help from the Fed (spurred by leaks about the content of FOMC Chair Powell’s Thursday speech). However, the DIA sold off both strongly and immediately on its overnight reshuffle that saw XOM, PFE, and RTX replaced in the Dow 30. The other major indices faired better grinding sideways until the bulls stepped in late in mid-day to rally all the way into the close. On the day, DIA lost 0.20%, SPY gained 0.36% (closing at a new all-time high), and QQQ gained 0.79% (also closing at an another all-time high). The VXX lost a touch to 24.39 and T2122 remains just outside of overbought territory at 77.69. 10-year bond yields were up strongly to 0.687% while Oil (WTI) also gained to $43.35/barrel.

Kansas City Fed President George told CNBC she has concerns about a double-dip recession if there is a virus resurgence. She also expressed skepticism of Fed Chair Powell’s expected Thursday policy change announcement that will allow inflation to “run hot” (overshoot the 2% target without action to reduce it).

While Marco fizzled Monday, hurricane Laura is expected to intensify to a Category 4 storm. The major storm is expected to make landfall in Texas or Louisiana either tonight or on Thursday morning. Many businesses, including a high number of Chemical Plants and Oil Refineries in that area, have been shut down for days and will remain closed until at least next week.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,956,160 confirmed cases and 182,421 deaths. The good news is that new cases continue to trend down, coming in at just over 40,000 for Tuesday. However, deaths saw a spike back up close to 1,300 on the day. In a dramatic (and questionable) change, the CDC posted revised guidelines saying that people exposed to infected people DO NOT need to be tested unless they are showing symptoms. Moreover, they are discouraging testing by saying “if you do get tested, you should self-quarantine at least until you have results.” So as testing is being decreased and is now being discouraged, and reporting has been changed, we should see dramatically lower numbers.

Globally, the numbers rose to 24,091,252 confirmed cases and 824,177 deaths. In Europe, Germany said a good portion (42%) of their recent increase in cases are due to international travelers now that they have reopened borders. Among the origin countries identified were Turkey, Kosovo, Croatia, Bosnia, and Bulgaria. In the UK, the government made a U-turn to say that many secondary school kids will be required to wear masks in an attempt to get public education (freeing the parents to work) back in place.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but modestly lower. Shanghai and Shenzhen both lost over 1.3% in the only moves greater than one percent. The remaining markets all stuck much closer to flat on the day. However, European markets are more hopeful as of their mid-day. There are no major moves, but everything except the FTSE and Sweden are leaning toward the green side. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a mixed and modest open, with the DIA just on the red side of flat, SPY just on the green side of it, and the QQQ looking to a half-percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). Major earnings reports include DKS, DY, and RY before the open. Then after the close GEF and WSM report.

The rally has continued and new DIA member CRM had blow-out earnings after the close Tuesday. So that should help that market, shaken a bit by Monday’s revised lineup. It seems the bulls are restless waiting on political conventions to end, DC to return to work to give the economy more stimulus, and now the Fed to announce they will let inflation run until after they secure full employment.

The trend still remains bullish. So, be careful trying to get on the short side. (Markets can stay “wrong” longer than we can stay solvent.) Follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Don’t try to predict reversals or breakouts. Above all, remember, trading is a job. We must obey our rules, stick to the process, and work to be consistently profitable.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NOW, SQ, COST, FB, MXIM, SNPS, WYNN, UNM, STZ. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls out in force.

August 25, 2020 by Doug Campbell

After a little intra-day pop and drop, the bulls came out in force once again, setting new records pushing the SP-500 above 3400. The bulls want to add to yesterday’s impressive display of strength, pointing to yet another gap up open with all eyes on a possible inflation policy change from the Fed expected on Thursday. The Dow still needs about 4.5% to set a new record, and with significant changes coming in the average at the end of the month, institutions will have to work hard to get that headline.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight. However, European markets are modestly bullish across the board this morning. US Futures are currently mixed this morning with the Dow expected to gap more than 150 points and NASDAQ flat to slightly lower.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The Tuesday earnings calendar shows 24 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include JWN, ADSK, ATHM BMO, BNS, BBY, PLCE, HAIN, HPE, HRL, INTU, SJM, MDT, CRM, TOL, & URBN.

News and Technical’s

More record highs after a day of robust bullish activity as the market looks forward to a significant policy speech from Powell on Thursday. According to reports, the Fed Chair will lay out a plan that changes the way the committee views inflation. The idea is to keep rates very low until they see a substantial increase in inflation, which is a significant shift in the FOMC history that worked to control inflation. Big changes are coming to the Dow Industrial Average with CRM replacing XOM, AMGN replacing PFE, and HON will take the position of RTX before the market opens on August 31. The change intends to balance the index after the AAPL decided to move forward with a 4-for-1 split, which will move it weighting from number 1 down to the 17^th position. Delta announced plans to furlough 1900 pilots in October as a result of pandemic impacts with other airlines likely to follow their lead soon.

A look into the index charts, you can see nothing but bullishness as we continue to pump-out new records almost daily. With the possibility of a new inflation policy coming to the Fed and seemingly no substantial concerns about Federal debt, we may have to come up with a new definition for what constitutes an overly frothy market environment. As traders, all we can do is stay with the current trends, stay focused, and avoid becoming complacent in case the music does suddenly stop.

Trade Wisely,

Doug