As stimulus hope fades and a coronavirus resurgence here in the U.S. and Europe, overnight futures markets point to a nasty gap down ahead of market-moving earnings and economic reports. The swirling uncertainty continues to make price action very volatile and dangerous, likely chopping up accounts of the inexperienced. Today’s news could quickly improve or worsen this morning open, so plan your risk carefully and work to avoid emotionally charged decisions.
Asian markets slip south across the board overnight, and European markets are decidedly bearish this morning after France declares a public health emergency. Ahead of earnings and economic data that included jobless numbers futures suggest a nasty gap and more price volatility for the traders to navigate.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have 13 verified reports rolling out today. Notable reports include UAL, DAL, SCHW, TACO, ISRG, MS, TFC, & WBA.
News & Technicals’
The bears made some headway yesterday, pushing the indexes lower after a report suggesting the hoped-for stimulus before election day fades. Additional reports reviled the speaker Pelosi spoke to Munchin yesterday and plans to continue the stimulus conversation later today but noted there remains a vast divide in viewpoints. Coronavirus is once again front and center in this morning’s news, with France declaring a public health emergency and Europe scrambling to control the reemergence with new lockdown procedures. Here in the U.S., the infection rates are also surging again, topping more than 50,000 for the second day in a row. Sadly the death toll is also rising, weighing the market sentiment heading into today’s open and piling on to the bad news coronavirus clinical trails are pausing over safety concerns. As the election season politics shifts into high gear, the second presidential debate is being replaced with dueling town hall meetings. What could go wrong with that?
All this uncertainty seems to have energized the bears this morning, with the futures pointing to a substantial gap down this morning. However, with several notable earnings and economic reports headed our way before the open, we could easily see an improvement or a worsening of this volatile overnight swing. Buckle up; it could be a wild ride today.
Markets opened flat Wednesday and after a slight rally, sold off all morning before a range-bound roller-coaster near the lows all afternoon. The result is a Bull Flag pattern in all the major averages. On the day, QQQ was down 0.84%, SPY down 0.63%, and DIA down 0.56%. The VXX fell a percent to 21.92 and T2122 fell outside the overbought territory to 72.50. 10-year bond yields were unchanged at 0.727% and Oil (WTI) rallied over 2% to $41.11/barrel.
On the stimulus front, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi spoke again Wednesday but did not reach a deal. Mnuchin threw cold water on the market with comments after the meeting to the effect that getting a deal done before the election will be very difficult. However, they will meet again Thursday.
After the close, WFC announced they have fired more than 100 employees for abuse of the relief fund programs. However, they stressed a lower than expected loan loss for the quarter. UAL also posted a larger than expected loss on the quarter and again stressed the need for relief from the US government.
France said Wednesday that they intend to proceed with a tax on digital transactions with customers located in their country. The French Finance Minister also said the EU should press ahead with its own plans for an EU-wide digital tax (to prohibit the big tech companies from shifting profits to low-tax Ireland in order to avoid taxation). US sanctions and tariffs on France are scheduled to take place in retaliation as of January.
On the virus front, in the US the numbers showing we now have 8,153,740 confirmed cases and 221,872 deaths. After almost 60,000 new cases Wednesday, the 7-day average daily new case count rose again to 53,151/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat at 723/day. 36 states are reporting increasing new case numbers and the country as a whole has seen a 14% increase in cases in the last week.
Globally, the numbers rose to 38,814,533 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,098,012 deaths. In France, new restrictions (including 9pm curfews) were announced as both new cases and hospitalization reached the highest level since June and exceeded their preset threshold for additional measures. Both Germany and Italy recorded their highest number of new cases since the start of the pandemic and Russia recorded a record number of deaths Wednesday. Meanwhile, in Spain, all bars and restaurants in the Catalonia region have been closed again for at least 2 weeks. Across the Channel, in a controversial move, Wales has banned incoming travelers from high-risk areas of the UK, including Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.
Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board (with the lone exception of a modestly positive Australia). Hong Kong and India were the only losses of more than 2%. In Europe, markets are following Asia with major losses at this point in the day. The big 3 bourses are showing the FTSE -1.88%, DAX -2.72%, and CAC -2.15% on renewed virus and shutdown fears. There is a similar scorecard across the rest of the continent’s exchanges. As of 7:30am, US futures are also pointing to a significant gap down. The DIA and SPY are both implying about a 1% gap lower, while the QQQ is showing a 1.40% gap down at this point.
The major economic news for Thursday includes Sept. Import/Exports, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, NY Empire Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am) and 3 Fed speakers (Kaplan at 11 am, Quarles at 11 am, and Kashkari at 5 pm). Major Earnings Reports include CMC, MS, SCHW, TFC, TSM, and WBA before the open as well as ISRG after the close.
The surging virus, lack of a stimulus deal, and earnings reports are likely to be the main drivers of the market. However, the flurry of economic news at 8:30 am may have something to say about the open. Regardless of the open, political overhang and stimulus posturing are sure to add to volatility during the day. So, be careful if you are going to wade into this market anew.
Be nimble and make sure you lock-in profits whenever you can. As always, maintain your discipline. Stick to those rules and don’t chase moves you have missed. Follow the trend (and the short-term trend is down in a longer Bull trend doing a Flag pattern move now). Just stick to those trading plans and they will serve you well.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. However, the public is invited to join Rick in the trading room starting at 9 am (where many trade ideas will be discussed) using this link: https://bit.ly/Hrcopenroom Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With the indexes in a short-term overextended condition and a mixed bag of earnings results, the bears began probing for weaknesses breaking the 4-day rally. BAC disappointed this morning, reversing early futures bullishness, but with several more potential market-moving reports this morning, we could easily flip-flop several more times before the open. Anything is possible, and keep in mind how quickly market emotion can shift on any stimulus news.
Asian markets, in reaction the Xi’s speech, closed with mixed but modestly higher results. European markets are chopping around the flatline this morning as virus worries weigh on investor sentiments. US Futures seem uncertain this morning, but asf earings roll out, anything is possible, so prepare for another day of price volatility as a hopeful market awaits more government deficit spending.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the hump day earrings calendar, we have 12 verified reports, and several are considered market-moving. Notable reports include AA, ASML, BAC, GS, INFY, PNC, SNBR, USB, UNH, & WFC.
News & Technicals’
With a mixed bag of earnings results yesterday and the indexes significantly extended, the bears made a half-hearted appearance breaking a 4-day winning streak. However, after spending considerable time reviewing charts last night, I feel like I saw this kind of price action before in 1999. Instead of wild speculation on dot.com companies, this time, there seems to be a willingness to throw money at the market, betting on government stimulus. Let’s face it the actual economy is struggling, and with coronavirus cases rising again, the economic challenges business face this winter could be substantial. Like in 1999, the markets could continue to zoom higher, ignoring the massive national debt, but the consequences of doing also increase the risk. Long story short, follow the price action higher but don’t drink the kool-aid. This wild-eyed bullishness party will eventually end, and I suspect the hangover it has the potential to produce will be very painful and destroy a lot of accounts as it did in 1999. Stay frosty and focused.
Technically speaking, the bulls remain in substantial control of the indexes, but they are short-term overextended, and the bears are beginning to probe for weaknesses in their defenses. BAC reported disappointing results this morning, reversing futures that at one point suggested a gap up open but now indicate a slightly bearish open. However, many more notable reports for the market to react to before the open anything is possible. Remain flexible and remember the market is sensitive to stimulus news and could become increasingly sensitive to virus numbers once again.
Markets opened mixed and flat Tuesday as Earnings season kicked off. However, the large-caps saw a slow selloff lasting all the way to the lows about 3 pm. Then a rally the last hour closed the DIA and SPY up off their lows, both printing Bearish Harami candles. Meanwhile, the QQQ gapped up almost two-thirds of a percent but immediately sold off below Monday’s close. Then an all-day roller coaster ride ended up with price closing almost exactly where it closed Monday. On the day, QQQ was flat -0.00%, DIA down 0.60%, and SPY down 0.65%. The VXX rose slightly to 22.15 while T2122 fell back to the edge of the overbought territory at 80.17. Bonds began trading Tuesday after the holiday and fell to 0.729% as Oil (WTI) rose to $40.17/barrel.
On the stimulus front, Senate Majority Leader McConnell has had enough negotiations (he is not a primary negotiator anyway) and has said the Senate will vote on a small plan that essentially covers just the PPP business loan/grant program. However, any bill the Senate passes is very likely DOA in the House. Meanwhile, President Trump sent out another nebulous tweet urging Congress to “go big or go home” on stimulus (no amount or specifics mentioned). And House Speaker Pelosi has again told reporters the White House proposal falls significantly short of what is needed to address the crisis.
During the day, the big banks got hammered with C and JPM both printing big, ugly Bearish Engulfing candles. This came as both reported beats on both the top and bottom lines. BAC and WFC (which report Wednesday) also got caught in that selling. The other major stock news on the day was the AAPL iPhone announcement which includes a $100 price increase and adds 5G capability while also not providing a charging cable or earpiece. Finally, overnight, PPC agreed to pay a $110 million fine for Chicken price-fixing.
On the virus front, in the US we have now gone over 8 million cases, with the numbers showing we now have 8,093,600 confirmed cases and 220,900 deaths. The 7-day average daily new case count rose (about 1,000 increase) again to 51,691/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains relatively flat at 712/day. Prior to the open Tuesday, JNJ became the second to pause their Phase 3 Trial over another unexplained illness of a study participant. Then in the afternoon, LLY was forced to pause the trial of their antibody treatment (the one President Trump received) by US regulators over potential safety concerns.
Globally, the numbers rose to 38,426,539 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,091,759 deaths. This comes as the world is adding 1 million new cases every 3 days. In the UK, despite the worsening situation, Cabinet Member Coffey said there is unlikely to be a national lockdown in the next 2 weeks, instead insisting the PM had decided to go with regional measures and local lockdowns in hope that will be enough to stop the spread. Meanwhile, in Germany, Chancellor Merkel is scheduled to release more restrictions later today.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly lower as the region reacted to a speech by Chinese President Xi Jingping. Japan and Hong Kong ended flat, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and South Korea lower. The other Asian markets were mixed with only India (+0.72%) showing any appreciable gain. In Europe, markets are also mixed, but again mostly lower so far today. The big 3 bourses are all on the red side of flat with the only markets showing noticeable moves being the smaller countries as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed and flat with the DIA and QQQ just on the green side of even and the SPY just on the red side.
The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Sept. Core PPI (8:30 am) and 4 Fed speakers (Clarida at 9 am, Quarles at 9:30 am, Quarles again at 3 pm, and Kaplan at 6 pm). Major Earnings Reports include ASML, BAC, GS, INFY, PGR, PNC, USB, UNH, and WFC before the open. Then after the close, AA, and UAL report.
Earnings are ramping up, the tea leaf reading of those numbers and statements follow, and stimulus talks (or lack thereof with Treas. Sec. Mnuchin out of the country), as well as political wrangling and the ACB confirmation hearings, will dominate the news. So, there is a lot of volatility risk overhanging the market. It looks like we are starting out looking at a consolidation day. However, that volatility can see us run either direction.
Continue to be careful, nimble, and potentially light in your trades. Make sure you lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to those rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed. Just stick to those plans and they will serve you well.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ABUS, OKE, XRT, KODK, XSPA, MRNA, SPCE, AMD. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Stimulus, what the market wants the most, continues to languish deadlocked and mired in political gamesmanship. Toss in the kickoff of 4th quarter earnings season, a supreme court hearing, and the uncertainty of the coming elections, and we have the makings for extreme price volatility. Stimulus hopes pushed the indexes into a hyper-extended condition yesterday, so there will be a significant amount of pressure for companies to perform at these levels. Stay focused as anything is possible.
Asian markets struggled overnight but finally managed modest gains after reporting rising exports. European markets are lackluster this morning, currently showing modest losses across the board. US Futures have rallied off overnight lows as earnings roll-out, indicating a possible gap down in the Dow while the NASDAQ points higher lead by APPL and the new iPhone anticipation. Keep an eye on the latest reading on the GDP this morning that consensus suggests will decline.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Today begins the kickoff of the 4th quarter earnings season with 14 companies reporting. Notable reports include JPM, JNJ, BLK, C, DAL, FAST, EDU, & WIT.
News and Technicals’
The bulls continued to the rally yesterday even with what they want is still mired in politics with no apparent progress. The President is back on the campaign trail after testing negative for the virus and no longer contagious. He has a lot of catching up to do having been ill with Biden leading significantly in the polls. Senators will begin questioning the new supreme court nominee in a marathon session that will take up the entire day. What that means for the progress of a stimulus bill before the election remains uncertain. Today, Apple CEO Tim Cook will put on his best song and dance act as he unveils the iPhone’s next iteration. There has been a discussion of a significant redesign and the introduction of 5G devices that they hope will trigger a substantial wave of upgrades by the end of the year. Another major distraction will be the Amazon Price sales event that begins on Wednesday.
With JPM firs out of the gate with their earnings this morning, the Futures currently point toa gap down open. However, with several more potential market-moving reports this morning and the latest reading on the GDP before the market opens, anything is possible. Technically speaking, index charts are in a hyper-extended condition, so today’s events will be very critical to inspire the bulls to defend this massive anticipatory rally. Expect price volitility to remain high with an extreme sensitivity to political news surrounding stimulus negotiations. Buckle up for another wild earnings season with a presidential election tossed in for good measure.
On Monday, markets gapped up three-quarters of a percent and then continue to rally most of the day for no particular reason. Then we saw a half-percent selloff the last 90 minutes of the day, again with no news explanation. That said, profit-taking makes sense after such a run of gap-ups and white candles. On the day, QQQ was up a gaudy 3.09%, its best day since April with AAPL and AMZN leading the charge in front of their big events on Tuesday. However, the large-caps were also quite positive with the SPY up 1.58% and the DIA up 0.86%. VXX dropped to 21.85 and the T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 97.55 (but notice it did pull back just a bit). Bond markets were closed, but Oil (WTI) fell almost 3% again to $39.52/barrel.
While I said there was no particular explanation for Monday’s market move, it is possible “hope for more stimulus” was the cause. However, there were no headlines on the negotiations, the last word from both sides was an impasse, and the political focus has moved to the confirmation of ACB. However, after-hours Bloomberg reported that their analysts are again seeing patterns in the CBOE NDX Volatility index as they saw during the summer. Specifically, they claim to again see signs of day-trading options traders from the new, stay-at-home economy (read Robinhood traders) pushing moves in both directions during the day. This new group of traders is driving marginal demand for contracts (particularly in the big-name FAANGM tickers) that, in turn, leads to increased volatility and outsized moves as they pile in and out both during premarket and during the day.
After the close, DIS announced they are reorganizing their various divisions to make their primary focus the video streaming business. Technology research company Gartner also announced that the US personal computer industry had the best in 10 years on Q3. PC shipments were up almost 11.5% for Q3 and they are expecting blow-out quarterly reports by HP, DELL, AAPL, MSFT along with various foreign PC makers. However, overnight JNJ halted Phase 3 vaccine testing due to an unexplained illness.
On the virus front, in the US we have now gone over 8 million cases, with the numbers showing we now have 8,038,037 confirmed cases and 220,018 deaths. The 7-day average daily new case count rose again to 50,612/day. Dr. Fauci (NIH) told reporters that “the US is on a trajectory of getting worse” with 31 states are trending upward in daily cases compared to one week ago. (Not good as we are just now entering Winter and flu season.) One example of the problem is the small population state of ND, which has less than 20 ICU beds available for the entire state, recorded nearly 500 new cases on Monday, and is already shipping patients to other nearby states. The main model used by the White House Task Force (Univ. of Washington) is predicting 180,000 more deaths in the US by the end of January unless major improvements in mask usage and social distancing are implemented.
Globally, the numbers rose to 38,097,303 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,086,400 deaths. This comes as the world is adding 1 million new cases every 3 days. In the UK, PM Johnson is under fire from all sides for continuing with his “half a loaf” approach. He increased restrictions Monday, but did not institute a second two-week national lockdown that the scientific advisory committee has been urging for 3 weeks. In the meantime, the daily case count in the UK is 3 times that of their worst pre-summer lockdown week. France also continues to have major issues as their national testing positivity rate reached 12.8% Monday. Spain, Italy and Germany also all continue to struggle with new measures as their second wave surges continue.
Overnight, Asian markets started strong (following the US), but fizzled. However, they did close modestly positive. Australia led the gainers up 1.04%, but most of the Asian exchanges ended flat to modestly green such as Shanghai +0.04%, Japan +0.18%, South Korea -0.02%, and Hong Kong was closed due to a typhoon. In Europe we see a mixed, but much redder scoreboard so far today. All 3 of the major bourses are negative, with FTSE down 0.41%, DAX down 0.42%, and CAC down 0.33% as of mid-day. As of 7:30am, US futures are mixed with the QQQ implying a gap up of 0.96%, but the large-caps are both projecting a red open with the DIA down 0.38% and SPY down 0.08%.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Sept. Core CPI (8:30 am) and Sept. Fed Budget Balance (2 pm). and no earnings reports scheduled for Monday. However, earnings season kicks off again with BLK, C, SAL, FAST, FRC, JNJ, JPM, and WIT all reporting before the open. Other major events include the AAPL iPhone product refresh and AMZN Prime Day.
Both earnings season, as well as AMZN Prime days (and competitor sales), kick-off in an attempt to jumpstart Xmas sales early, AAPL is holding its iPhone launch event today. Those are likely to be the drivers today, although the JNJ Trial stoppage will also likely have an impact. However, there is always room for political or stimulus news causing volatility in this triple-silly season.
So, with the pandemic, political, and earnings risk hanging overhead, be careful, nimble, and potentially light in your trades. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed. Our job as traders is to reduce risk and create consistent gains, not knock the cover off the ball every time we swing.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CSX, FITB, MCD, DVAX, F, TLRY, ET. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With bond markets closed, no earnings or economic events, the start fo the supreme court hearings, and Stimulus talks at an impasse, futures point to a flat open. That’s something we’ve not seen in quite a long time. The bulls remain in control, but that control depends heavily on the hopes of the stimulus deal. The President raised his offer to 1.8 Trillion, and now both sides of the aisle are unhappy with the proposal. Traders should prepare for significant news-driven volatility amidst a week of substantial distractions.
Asian markets closed the day mixed with the HIS leaping higher by 2.2%. European markets hold modest gains across the board this morning while U.S. Futures remain flat and choppy with the bond markets closed for Columbus Day.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have no confirmed earnings reports on this Columbus day Monday.
News & Technicals’
The President has upped his offer for Stimulus to 1.8 Trillion and now has opposition on both sides of the aisle. The D’s say it’s not enough, and the R’s are upset because the cost is much higher than they are willing to pass. With the beginning of the Amy Coney Barrett’s supreme court confirmation hearings, I suspect the distraction will take the focus off getting a stimulus bill completed. Although the markets are open today, the bond markets are closed today due to Columbus Day’s banking holiday. We will have a few more distractions this week with the Tuesday launch event of this year’s iPhone lineup. A Morgan Stanley analyst wrote this fall’s launch would be the most significant iPhone event in years. We will also have a massive focus on online shopping events with Amazon’s Prime 2-day sales event may other online competitors tagging along with sales events of their own.
Last week was all about the bulls pushing the markets up in hopes of more Stimulus. That created tremendous price volatility as the Congress and the President waged a political battle making headlines that would swing market emotions violently. Unfortunately, with no progress over the weekend and Speaker Pelosi quoted saying that talks “remain at an Impasse,” we should plan for the market emotion to continue spilling out with the news cycle out of D.C. With banks closed today, and the beginning of the supreme court hearings, it would not be a surprise to see a day of algo-driven choppiness. Futures suggest a flat open with nothing on the earnings or economic calendar to inspire the bulls or the bears; we could have the quietest market open in weeks.
Markets gapped up Friday on more hope for stimulus. After that the large-caps ground sideways in a slight downtrend. This left them in indecisive candles. However, the QQQ continued an uptrend and closed near its highs. For the day, QQQ was up 1.53%, SPY up 0.89%, and DIA up 0.58%. The VXX fell over 5% to 22.29 and T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 98.89. 10-year bond yields were essentially flat at 0.779% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.63% to $40.52/barrel.
On the stimulus front, over the weekend the White House raised their offer and Chief Economic Advisor Kudlow said they may go well above the Democrat-proposed $2.2 trillion. The White House also sent another letter to Congress pleading to separate another portion of the package (PPP loans/grants this time) as a stand-alone bill. Still, House Speaker Pelosi seems to be holding her ground that no piece-meal one-off bills will be passed and any bill must be part of a larger agreement. So, both of the main negotiators say the sides remain at an impasse. Worse yet, Republican Senators have also attacked the White House’s attempt to reach a deal by raising the offer, and now say there is virtually no chance of passing any deal before the election. However, market optimism for a deal soon remains alive as negotiations continue.
The Chinese Central Bank made it easier to short the yuan over the weekend. Sunday night the Chinese currency traded down 0.6% (a significant move for forex). Of course, a weaker yuan makes non-Chinese products and commodities more expensive in China and also makes Chinese products and commodities cheaper throughout the rest of the world. In addition, the Chinese government announced a market-based reform that will give local authorities more power to regulate local businesses. These moves could be related to US-China trade relations, but were definitely seen as positives by the Asian markets.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,992,810 confirmed cases and 219,702 deaths. After 56,652000 cases Thursday, the 7-day average daily new case count rose again to just over 50,000/day, while the lagging average of deaths remains flat at 725/day. 31 states are trending upward in daily cases, with only 3 states trending downward compared to one week ago. At the same time, the US government has struck a $486 billion deal with AZN for 100,000 doses of an antibody cocktail treatment similar to the one President Trump received. Delivery should begin by the end of 2020 with the US having the option to buy up to another 1 million doses by the end of 2021.
Globally, the numbers rose to 37,795,463 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,081,934 deaths. This comes as the world is adding 1 million new cases every 3 days. In Europe, things are getting bleak again. Germany confirmed the most daily virus-related deaths since May on Saturday. Meanwhile, Russia, the Czech Republic and Hungary all reported records for new cases on both Saturday and Sunday. Italy’s new cases climbed for a sixth straight day, reaching the highest daily level since March. In the UK, on Sunday a government Minister announced new restrictions, and one of the chief scientific advisors told the BBC a second national lockdown was quite possible unless they can curb the sharp rise in cases and hospitalizations.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher, with outsized gains in China. Shenzhen (+3.31%) led that way, followed by Shanghai (+2.64%), and Hong Kong (+2.20%). The only appreciable loser on the day was Malaysia (-0.78%). In Europe, markets are also mostly higher Monday. The FTSE (-0.08%) is flat while the DAX (+0.28%), and CAC (+0.52%) are positive. As of midday the only significant loss is in Greece (-1.54%). As of 7:30am, US futures are implying a mixed open with the Dow flat (+0.01%), S&P500 up (+0.45%), and the Nasdaq gapping (+1.37%).
There are no major economic news and no earnings reports scheduled for Monday.
With earnings season (as well as AMZN Prime days and the AAPL iPhone launch event) not starting until Tuesday and no economic news scheduled for today, Monday may be a “wait and see” day for the markets. However, there is always room for political or stimulus news causing volatility. This is especially true given the market’s love for more stimulus and apparent willingness to assume it will come sooner or later, and if later then bigger. Also, don’t forget today is a federal holiday, and bond markets are closed.
So, with the political, economic, and earnings risk hanging overhead, be careful, nimble, and potentially light in your trades. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed. Welcome back and I hope it was a great weekend.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DOMO, WKHS, AAPL, FVRR, INTC, KO, GNUS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
***Notice due to a Windows Update I’m currently unable to record the Morning Prep Video. I will work on the problem but if I can get it fixed the video will be late. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Speculation that elected officials will eventually get their act together and agree on a stimulus package continues to elevate the indexes pointing to another gap up open. Pelosi and Munchin continue to talk, but it’s unclear if the President will reverse his thinking and support a big package deal. One thing for sure is that this creates a dangerously volatile market condition that’s more akin to gambling as traders bet on the possible outcome. Consider your risk carefully as we head into a weekend with incredible uncertainty as to what happens next.
Asian markets wrapped up their week with mixed but mostly lower results by the close. European markets are also cautiously mixed as they monitor US stimulus efforts. However, US Futures point to another gap up open as hope of a deal continues to inspire bullish speculation despite the dangerous consequences of news-driven extreme volatility.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have no confirmed reports; thus, there are no notable reports.
News and Technicals’
Markets held up yesterday after Speaker Pelosi made it clear there will be no stimulus bull that does not include a broader response, including aid for cities and states. However, Munchin and Pelosi spoke on Thursday to resume negotiations, but at this time, it’s unclear if the White House will accept a broader proposal. With the upcoming Supreme Court appointment hearings, there is little time to hammer out a deal before the election. Still, the market itself is holding on to hope, and lifting the indexes higher speculation an agreement is forthcoming, setting the stage for incredible volatility and sensitivity to the Washington spin cycle. Betting a deal will come together could prove profitable but could prove very painful should they fail, and traders wake up to gap down overnight reversal. Consider your risk carefully heading into the uncertainty of the weekend.
Technically speaking, the index charts are bullish as they work to break recent price resistance levels. That said, volatility remains very high, making the path forward quite dangerous as we wait on politicians to get their act together. A big ask this close to a presidential election. Anything it possible, and trading in this environment is more than gambling. If you do trade, measure the risks carefully, avoid overtrading, and be willing to pivot on a moment’s notice.
Markets gapped a half percent higher at the open on Thursday on continued hope for stimulus, despite a worse than expected Weekly Jobless Claims number. However, they then proceeded to grind sideways in a tight range for the rest of the day. The DIA and QQQ both printed indecisive black-bodied Hanging Man type candles, while the SPY printed a white-bodies version closing near the highs. On the day SPY was up 0.89%, QQQ up 0.53%, and the DIA up 0.48%. The VXX fell 4% to 23.51 and T2122 rose very high into the overbought territory at 98.87. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.779% and Oil (WTI) gained 3.3% to $41.27/barrel.
During the day, there were news stories around whether or not a 2nd Presidential debate will happen and House Speaker Pelosi saying there will be no airline industry bailout without the broader stimulus bill (calling the President’s bluff from Tuesday on no further stimulus negotiations). After that, President Trump told reporters that despite his order to stop 2 days ago, negotiations are on-going and have now become productive. The market largely shrugged off all 3 stories without blinking. Finally, after hours, it was reported that the President does want a broader stimulus deal and despite his (and White House staff’s conflicting statements…even during time of the most recent negotiation call) Treasury Sec. Mnuchin is negotiating on behalf of the President.
The US Census Bureau reports that nearly 60 million US households expect a member of their family to lose their job or take a pay cut in the next 4 weeks. They went on to report that 23% of Americans are finding it “somewhat” or “very” difficult to cover typical household expenses. However, at the same time, MS released a report saying that US households have saved an extra $1.1 trillion in “savings buffer” so far this year (as compared to pre-covid household savings). I take this to mean the high-end of the income scale has socked away considerably more than usual while the low-end of the scale are barely getting by.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,834,289 confirmed cases and 217,750 deaths. After 56,652 cases Thursday, the 7-day average daily new case count rose again to just under 47,000, while the lagging average of deaths rose only slightly to 725 after another 957 died. On Thursday, TX reported a 4-week high in hospitalizations and WI began building field hospitals to offset its own surge in hospitalizations. NY and NJ also both saw the largest number of new cases since mid-May. Meanwhile, several other (mainly Northern) states also saw a record number of new cases. However, in relatively good news, HHS Sec. Azar said that IF the vaccines in phase 3 now are approved and IF production goes as planned by the companies involved, then the US may have enough vaccine doses for the whole country by the end of March.
Globally, the numbers rose to 36,802,540 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,067,551 deaths. This comes after almost 350,000 new cases and almost 6,500 new deaths were recorded globally on Thursday. In Europe, France logged another record high on the 7-day average of new cases and expanded restrictions in response as did Russia. Italy saw the largest number of new cases in a day since early April. In addition, Spain’s President ordered for a 15-day state of emergency in the capitol Madrid, but a judge later blocked his order leaving confusion. Meanwhile the UK reported that their economy expanded 2.1% in August (but that growth was less than a third of July’s growth).
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China (back from a holiday) catching up with a 3% gain in Shenzhen and a 1.68% gain in Shanghai. However, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong were flat to red. The remaining Asian exchanges were mixed on modest moves. exchanges. In Europe, markets are also mixed. The FTSE (+0.42%) and CAC (+0.31%) are positive while the DAX (-0.10%) is flat to down. This is typical with outliers like Portugal (-1%) and Finland (+0.71%) at this point in the day. As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing toward another modest gap higher. The DIA and SPY are implying a 0.47% gap up, while the QQQ is implying a 0.32% gap higher.
There is no major economic news and no earnings reports scheduled for Friday.
After a grinding, sideways day Thursday, it seems like the bulls were waiting on follow-up news on stimulus after the gap. With turmoil in the White House position and the 2 sides of the negotiation still not giving way or making nice (Pelosi and Trump both questioned the other’s mental faculties Thursday), that may not be in the cards. That said, there are a lot of politicians on both sides of the aisle and branch of government that are up for election. You can bet most of them would like to deliver another package this month, regardless of whether any stimulus/relief reaches anyone before the election.
And while this goes on, remember there is no other scheduled news today or Monday (Federal holiday) with Earnings season kicking off on Tuesday. So, with the political, economic, and earnings risk hanging overhead, be careful about the risk you want to carry into the weekend. It’s payday, so don’t forget to take some money off the table and lock-in profits where you can. If you are trading, be light, quick and disciplined. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed. Have a great day and weekend.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
