The FOMC woke sleeping bears after using the term “economic uncertainly” due to the business impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. They also mentioned the need for more government stimulus, which we all know is likely on the way, assuming Congress will eventually get its act together once they get over point fingers at one another trying to assign blame to the other party. After a historic rally, a little resting consolidation or pullback is healthy for the market, assuming the bulls defend price support levels.
Asian markets closed in the red across the board after announcing they will resume trade talks with the US. European markets are also in a bearish mood this morning, reacting to the Fed statement of uncertainty. US Futures point to a lower open but have bounced off of overnight lows ahead of earnings and potentially market-moving economic reports.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have 32 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include BABA, BJ, EL< GFI, MLCO, & ROST.
News & Technical’s
Wednesday started strong setting new record highs and pushing AAPL briefly above 2 Trillion in market cap, but comments from the FOMC brought out some profit takers. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting used the words “economic uncertainty” ahead due to coronavirus business impacts. Honestly, I don’t understand how that could have been a surprise to the market, but it seems to have woke up the bears at least temporarily. The Fed also mentioned the need for more government stimulus, which is likely on the way, assuming Congress will eventually get its act together and come to an agreement. Chinas commerce ministry announced early Thursday that they would go back to the trade negotiation table with the US helping to lift US futures off of overnight lows.
Technically speaking, yesterday’s pullback should raise the awareness that the market will not go up forever, but so far, indexes remain in bullish trends and above price support levels. However, it should be no surprise that the markets are significantly extended, and consolidating rest or a pullback is overdue if only to allow moving averages to catch up. Healthy markets test support and trends, so don’t fear a possible pullback. Lowered prices set up new opportunities.
Wednesday saw a sideways grind all morning. After reaching all-time highs again early in the day, the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm gave us a steep selloff into the close. The Fed discussion told traders that the FOMC expects the virus to be a major overhang on the economy and “represents a considerable risk over the medium term” (18-24 months). On the day, SPY closed down 0.45%, DIA down 0.29%, and QQQ down 0.67%. The VXX rose slightly to 24.75 and T2122 fell to 40.52. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.685% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.82/barrel.
The state of CA continues to see several major plagues. Rolling power outages, more than 370 wildfires statewide, 110-degree temperatures, and a little virus pandemic to boot. On top of these, there are economic issues such as both UBER and LYFT shut down their CA operations. The ride-sharing duo of companies are threatening to shut down CA service permanently in the wake of the state declaring that their drivers are not independent contractors and must be treated as employees.
After the close Wednesday, Larry Kudlow (White House) told reporters “the President wants to prevent China from collecting some form of proceeds” from the forced sale of Byte Dance’s TikTok App North-American operations that the President has ordered. There was no word on how this would be done (since any sale would be a private transaction), although Kudlow said the fact it had never been done before does not mean it can’t be done now. This follows the President’s previous assertion that the US Government should get a significant cut of any deal since he was the one making any purchase possible through his orders. Perhaps a scary precedent for free markets when the government decides who can own what, forces sales, decides who gets paid and demands a cut of the deal. At the moment MSFT, ORCL, and TWTR are all in talks with Byte Dance over a purchase.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,701,390 confirmed cases and 176,365 deaths. While the new cases are down (over 46,000) from the highs, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly at 48,000 new cases and 1,030 deaths per day. So, there are hopeful trends in the US. However, Adm. Giroir (Admin. Testing Tzar) said that this hopeful situation “could turn around very quickly if we are not careful. We saw that after Memorial Day”. (He was referring to all the progress made through the May partial lockdown being lost in just a couple weeks when the states and public ignored reopening, mask and social distancing guidelines.)
Globally, the numbers rose to 22,607,156 confirmed cases and 791,622 deaths. Over in Europe, Spain, France, Germany, and Italy all reported a post-lock-down record increase in new cases on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sweden (which went the “herd immunity” route some support in the US), reported that it had the highest death count in more than 150 years during the first half of 2020. In Asia, South Korea had a 7th straight day of triple-digit new cases as its curve is growing exponentially again for the first time since February. On the sub-continent, India also continues to see exponential growth in cases, but the numbers are orders of magnitude larger in India with over 69,000 new cases and an average of 980 deaths on average.
Overnight, Asian markets were deep into the red Thursday as fear from the US-China Trade War, the Fed Minutes from July and new case growth in the region spook trades. South Korea and Taiwan set the pace, both down over 3.25%. The same thing is true so far today in Europe. European bourses are down across the board with the FTSE (-1.18%), CAC (-1.10%), and DAX (-1.01%) leading the way. In the US, as of 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly lower (a quarter percent or less) open this morning.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Quarles at 1 pm). Major earnings reports include BABA, BJ, and EL before the open. Then after the close ROST reports.
Wednesday’s black candles show resistance at the all-time highs remains significant in the SPY. However, the trend remains bullish in the SPY and QQQ with only the DIA doing anything resembling a pullback. I think this is partially summer doldrums, partially waiting on a stimulus deal, and partially due to waiting out the political conventions. In short, this week and next were destined to be good times for traders to take some time off.
Since we weren’t bright enough to join the vacationers, all we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, keep taking profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CSCHW, UBER, WEN, EBAY, HLF, TEAM, OSTK, PLNT, AA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Tuesday saw yet another attempt to push the SPY up through its all-time highs. A bit of a gap-up across the board came off blowout earnings from WMT and HD. However, WMT also said consumer spending has fallen off since both the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment money have been exhausted. The QQQ and SPY (barely) closed at new all-time highs. However, all 3 major indices did print indecisive candles, especially the SPY. On the day, SPY closed up 0.20%, DIA down 0.25%, and QQQ up 0.96% as AMZN, TSLA, and GOOG pushed the Nasdaq higher. VXX fell slightly to 24.33 and T2122 fell back to mid-range at 67.27. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.669% and Oil (WTI) pulled back a touch to $42.57.
This morning JNJ announced they are buying MNTA for $6.5 billion ot improve their portfolio of autoimmune disease treatments. LOW also reported a blowout Q2 on a 30% revenue surge as consumers do home projects. In addition, TGT saw profits jump 80% in Q2 as revenues grew 24.3% year-on-year (on a 700% increase in online sales) during the pandemic. This was a $2 billion revenue beat and more than double the expected earnings.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,656,204 confirmed cases and 175,092 deaths. While the new cases are falling, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly just over 49,000 new cases and 1,047 deaths per day. Three more major colleges have confirmed outbreaks or announced virtual classes to avoid the same. Notre Dame has closed for 2 weeks, Michigan State announced virtual classes for fall, and NC State has identified a cluster of cases in both multiple fraternity houses. Meanwhile, many other colleges (Tennessee, Iowa State, Appalachian State, etc.) reported clusters of new cases as students return or football teams practice.
Globally, the number of cases rose to 22,334,752 confirmed cases and 784,875 deaths. Ireland tightened restrictions again, limiting the size of outdoor gatherings, discouraging public transport, and implementing hour limits on restaurants and bars. France announced it will require face masks in all office jobs starting September 1. In South Korea, they reported the largest jump in confirmed cases of the last 5 months.
Overnight, Asian markets remained mixed, but leaned heavily toward the red. China and Thailand paced the losers while the only gainers worth mentioning were Australia (+0.72%) and South Korea (+0.52%). In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean more to the positive side of flat. The FTSE is up 0.22%, SAX up 0.30%, and CAC up 0.16% at this point in their day. In the US, the futures are pointing at a mixed, flat open despite the great earnings reports this morning.
The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports include ADI, LOW, TGT, and TJX before the open. Then after the close LB, NVDA, and SNPS report.
The SPY remains right at the breakout level, this time a Doji with the body leaning on top that level. It certainly appears the summer doldrums have taken hold the last week in that index. For its part, the DIA follows suit just drifting sideways. Only the QQQ has shown any energy recently. That said, no news is sometimes good news. Maybe traders are just waiting on Republicans and Democrats to finish their conventions and reach a stimulus deal.
All we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. Happy Hump Day.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CAR, SPWR, SAIL, PZZA, YUM, NKE, SEE, SCHW, CL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Although a lighter day on the earnings calendar, we have some heavy hitters stepping up to the plate with impressive pandemic results inspiring the futures higher this morning. Should the bulls remain motivated throughout the day, the SP-500 may finally close at a new record high joining the NASDAQ in the winner’s circle. Bullish momentum could undoubtedly use some improvement with far more stocks pulling back or consolidating with just a select few pushing the indexes higher. Perhaps today’s big reports can help cure that issue.
Asian markets closed trading with modest gains though mixed with the NIKKEI slightly lower due to new virus concerns. European markets, however, are green across the board this morning, led by the DAX up nearly 1% on the day. Fulled up on strong earnings results form WMT and HD, US futures point to a bullish open and a likely new record for the SP-500.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have a lighter day with just 17 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include HD, AAP, A, AMCR, CREE, JKHY, KSS, LZB, SE, & WMT.
News & Technical’s
The early report from HD said quarterly sales lept higher more than 20% as DIY consumers stuck home during the pandemic began home improvement projects. The bullish report has futures pointing to a higher open with the SP-500 likely to join the NASDAQ in the new record high club. However, with several notable reports yet to come this morning, anything is possible by the open. It looks like Oracle is setting up a bidding war looking to challenge Microsoft for a shot at buying TikTok. Markets typically embrace high priced bidding wars and could continue to inspire the bulls. On a bearish note, the coronavirus has now claimed the lives of more than 170,000 Americans with daily infection numbers averaging more than 50K. That said, Congress adjourned for the rest of the summer without a stimulus deal, and as far as I can tell, no plan as to when they might try again. One thing for sure is that both parties will be trying to direct blame at each other in a colossal finger-pointing match as election rhetoric ramps up.
Technically speaking, the indexes remain in bullish trends, but directional momentum has become noticeably weak. Once again, the market found enough energy to push the NASDAQ to new record highs as the Absolute Market Breadth Index declined. With several notable earnings reports, an expectation of increasing Housing Starts perhaps we see that momentum burst to resolve the divergence.
Monday saw another indecisive day with the bulls still unable to push the SPY up through the all-time highs. However, the bears couldn’t make any headway either as TSLA held up the QQQ. It appears the summer doldrums have hit now that we’ve regained the highs. On the day QQQ was up 1.16%, SPY up 0.32%, and DIA down 0.30%. The VXX fell to 24.59 and T2122 dropped just outside the overbought territory at 78.13. 10-year bond yields dropped a touch to 0.687% and Oil (WTI) rose to $42.84/barrel.
Before the open this morning WMT has crushed Q2 earnings estimates on a near doubling of e-commerce sales. HD also saw soaring sales and profits for Q2 as consumers invest in home renovations. However, department store chain KSS saw a 23% drop in sales for the quarter.
In non-earnings news ORCL has joined the fray to buy TikTok’s North American operations to take advantage of the President Trump-imposed fire sale. So, at the moment Byte Dance has offers from MSFT and ORCL, as well as at least an expressed interest from TWTR.
In other China-related news, the trade war continues as the US has imposed a new rule that requires a US government license before any company can sell chips made using US-made equipment to Huawei. (This rule makes US manufacturers liable for who their customers end up selling to, even through third-parties.) This rule could very well create a near-total cutoff of chips to Hauwei. In somewhat related news, last week a Chinese manufacturer debuted an x86-based computer that was built entirely using Chinese components. The result was a “surprisingly not bad” computer that can be sold throughout China to replace US-based computers. (“Surprisingly no bad” means it had a performance on par with mid-range US computers from 12-18 back. This is a major improvement on entirely-Chinese computer performance, which was 5-10 years behind in performance as little as a year ago.)
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,613,183 confirmed cases and 173,772 deaths. While the new cases are falling, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly just over 50,000 new cases and 1,068 deaths per day. In NC, the UNC closed in-person classes after accepting students back to campus as 4 clusters of cases broke out and the designated quarantine dorms started to fill up. BA announced they are offering voluntary buyouts for a second time this year in an attempt to reduce their workforce without more layoffs.
Globally, the number of cases rose to 22,079,923 confirmed cases and 778,102 deaths. The South Korean government reimposed a ban on in-person church services after a cluster of 450 people from one church tested positive. Case counts continue to rebound in that country who has been a model of response and virus control. Meanwhile, the WHO said Tuesday that the pandemic is being increasingly driven by unaware people (younger than 40) who are not taking preventative measures. The WHO official was speaking to Asia specifically. (For example, oddly, Wuhan China held a massive water park party where thousands of young people crowded in tight proximity for a party and entertainment yesterday.) However, that same comment certainly seems to apply to the US as well.
Overnight, Asian markets continue to stay mixed. South Korea was down hard (-2.46%) while New Zealand (+1.51%) and India (+1.23%) paced the gainers. Overall, the Asian markets leaned a little to the green side. In Europe, markets are much greener, but on modest moves at this point in the day. The DAX (+0.94%) is pacing the gainers with only Denmark (-0.80%) down significantly as of now. In the US, good earnings news has futures pointing to a modestly positive open. The QQQ seems to be leading with futures indicating a +0.32% open while the large-caps indices look to open up about 0.20%.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to July Building Permits and July Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports include AAP, HD, KSS, SE, and WMT before the open. Then, after the close A reports.
The SPY remains just below its all-time high after a week of trying to break through that level. The longer SPY sits there without failing, the more likely this bull run is to continue. However, it seems like the bulls won’t give an inch and the bears have no traction at all.
Follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves you have missed. Above all, take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. And welcome back to a new week.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: EBAY, DISH, SBUX, CNP, NLS, COST, CPRI, BCRX, MPC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
While index trends remain very bullish, uncertainty continues to swirl, making it very challenging for the market to see the light at the end of the tunnel. A delayed stimulus deal, mounting pandemic impacts, rising China tensions, and a very contentious election on the horizon is likely to keep volatility high and price action challenging in the months ahead. Though the bulls are clearly in control, don’t forget the bears still exist, so stay focused because this very news-driven market can quickly shift.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, even as Japan’s economy shrank in the 2nd quarter. European markets trade in the green but have fluctuated as they cautiously monitor geopolitical tensions. US Futures point to a bullish open as the SP-500 continues to challenge overhead price resistance attempting to set a new record high.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
With the majority of 3rd quarter earnings in the rearview, we have a much lighter week of reports with just 22 companies reporting this Monday. Notable reports include CRMT, FN, JD, & NAT.
News & Technical’s
After another low volume light choppy price action Friday, the SP-500 continues to struggle with overhead resistance and an elusive new record high. However, being this close, the last several days of consolidation builds upon the bullish trend, and I suspect institutions will likely push it though before that is a chance of any meaningful pullback. As the 2020 election nears, the Democrats call for the Postal chief to testify at an urgent hearing to discuss concerns over ballot handling after recent operations changes. Speaker Pelosi is planning to call the House back into session to vote on a Postal Service bill that’s likely to trigger a political firestorm. Just one more thing to deal with as this very divisive election season heats up. Federal bailout numbers of the airline industry swelled to more than $25 billion this year, but that may not be enough to prevent a massive wave of industry layoffs. As many as 75,000 could soon lose their jobs as the pandemic continues to impact airline operations. Boeing reported its second straight month of negative sales growth with far more order cancelations than new sales.
Although the technicals of the index charts remain quite bullish delays of the next stimulus bill, pandemic, tensions with China, and the ramp-up into the election silly season present considerable uncertainty for the overall market. I do suspect the SP-500 will soon make a new record high, but traders will have to stay on their toes as the market digests a likely very news-driven month ahead. Make no mistake; the bulls remain in control; however, this historic rally back to pre-pandemic highs remains quite volatile, and we should expect that turbulence to continue for the foreseeable future.
Friday was another indecisive day, with the bulls unable to push the SPY up through the all-time highs and the bears unable to get any traction either. This all came after July Retail Sales which at the same time was improved and much lower than expected. The SPY closed dead-flat, the DIA up 0.14%, and the QQQ down 0.12%. The VXX remained flat at 25.44 and the T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) rose slightly back up into the overbought territory at 85.06. 10-year bond yields were also flat at 0.709% and Oil (WTI) was also flat, closing at $2.23/barrel.
After the close, the US-China Trade Deal Phase 1 review (scheduled for video conference Saturday) was canceled. This may or may not have had something to do with the President’s renewed threats/pressure on Byte Dance (TikTok) to divest US operations. However, it does give extra time for potential cooling off and, if planned, for China to buy additional goods prior to the review.
Over the weekend, large parts of CA have gone back into rolling power blackouts as their electric grid is unable to keep up with demand. The proximate cause of the grid trouble was a combination of region-wide wildfires and a major heatwave. Places like Sacramento are forecast to hit well in excess of 100 degrees early this week and the “heat dome” that is preventing rain and causing high temperatures is projected to last for 2 weeks. While the main news from the story is residential, a large number of businesses will also be impacted. Not least among them will be the state’s largest electrical utilities, PCG and EIX.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,567,765 confirmed cases and 173,139 deaths. While the new cases are falling, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly just under 53,000 new cases and 1,065 deaths per day. The good news includes 20 states with falling rates, 17 holding roughly stable, and only 13 states with rising infection rates. In a testing-related story. Saturday, CNBC reported their survey of 9,400 Americans, which found that 40% of virus test results are coming too late to be useful for either clinical or tracing purposes. In an unrelated story, the number of tests being done remains 10% below where it was a few weeks ago with no reason given for the reduction.
Globally, the number of cases rose to 21,852,024 confirmed cases and 773,586 deaths. In Europe, the recent uptick in cases continues. Over the weekend France saw a post-lockdown record high of new cases on both Saturday and Sunday. The UK has had 6 straight days over 1,000 new cases. Italy has also reinstituted a nation-wide mandatory mask mandate while also closing all bars and nightclubs. However, in Spain, hundreds of people protested in Madrid against mask requirements. In Asia, the outbreak in India continues to grow. Current 7-day averages are now at 62,500 new cases and 950 virus deaths in that country. (Keep in mind that Indian numbers are suspected to be under-reported and must be weighed against a population of 1.4 billion.)
Overnight, Asian markets continue to stay mixed. China and New Zealand led to the upside. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan led to the downside. Europe is also mixed at this point, but leans more to the green side with modest moves. The FTSE leads the gainers at +0.61% so far today. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are on the green side of flat. Nasdaq is the leader with its futures pointing to a gap up of 0.68%. The large-caps are positive, but much closer to flat.
The only major economic news for Monday is the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am). Major earnings reports are also very limited with JD reporting before the open and BEST reporting after the close.
The SPY still sits just below its all-time high after 4 straight days of testing resistance at that level. The longer SPY sits there without failure, the more likely this bull run is to continue. It just seems like the bulls won’t give an inch and the bears have no traction at all. However, markets do seem hesitant as politicians have given up on a stimulus deal for now.
Follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves you have missed. Above all, take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. And welcome back to a new week. Happy Monday all.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: RIOT, DXC, Z, VIAC, NBL, RCL, AMAT, DG, XOP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Thursday was an indecisive, up-and-down day that started with a tiny gap down in the large-caps and tiny gap up in the QQQ. This came after a better than expected Initial Jobless Claims report that came in just under 1 million new claims. However, after the roller coaster ride, markets closed very near where they opened, putting in a Doji candle in all 3 major indices. On the day, QQQ closed up 0.23%, SPY down 0.19%, and DIA down 0.22%. VXX was also flat at 25.51 and T2122 fell just outside the overbought territory at 78.57. 10-year bond yields were up strongly to 0.717% after the big afternoon bond sale and Oil (WTI) closed down a touch to $42.36/barrel.
As has been the case, there was no progress between Democrats and the White House on a stimulus bill. Senate Majority Leader McConnell adjourned the Senate for the “August Recess.” This followed the House having already adjourned, but the Senate did not even give the caveat House Speaker Pelosi had given of “Adjourned Pending a deal on a Stimulus Bill.” This means a deal is very unlikely for weeks to come as both sides (Congressional and Administration) will be much more focused on conventions and politicking than governing for at least the next few weeks.
In an interesting after-hours story, Fed Governor Brainard said the Boston Fed has been experimenting with a cryptocurrency in collaboration with MIT. The multi-year project will focus on digital currency. This seems a direct reaction to FB proposing (and then abandoning) its own alternative to Bitcoin in 2019. Brainard said that no decision has been made yet on whether to create the new cryptocurrency. However, programmers working for the Cleveland, Dallas, and New York Federal Reserve banks are collaborating on a study of implementations and implications of this technology. So, it certainly appears to be headed that way.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,416,014 confirmed cases and 170,422 deaths. The news cases Thursday were 54,364, which is just under the 7-day average. The daily deaths fell a bit to 1,284, but still well above the 7-day average. In the afternoon, Dr. Fauci said that he was not pleased with how things are going. (Specifically, he said he was disturbed by the increase in positive test rates in states like OH, KY, IN, and TN.) However, he also said we need to think about returning to a sense of normalcy, but do so while social distancing and wearing masks. On that topic, GA Governor Kemp dropped his non-starter lawsuit against Atlanta Mayor Bottoms mask mandate.
Globally, the number of cases rose to 21,100,844 confirmed cases and 758,012 deaths. In Europe, the EU closed a deal with AstaZeneca to buy 300 million doses of vaccine at an undisclosed price. In the UK, they reinstituted travel restrictions (quarantine for incoming passengers from France, Malta, or the Netherlands). This comes as France declared the cities of Paris and Marseilles as “areas of active virus circulation.” In Asia Hong Kong reported a 9% contraction of their economy for Q2 and said they expect the overall year to see a 6%-8% contraction versus 2019. (Given riots and a pandemic, that isn’t exactly shabby…if valid numbers).
Overnight, Asian markets were again mixed, but also more volatile. China led the 1% gainers, while South Korea India, and Thailand led those losing over 1%. However, in Europe we see red across the board so far today on the UK travel restrictions. The FTSE and CAC are down 1.755% apiece, the DAX down 1.04% and the rest of Europe down between 0.75% and 1.50% so far Friday. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are mixed, but leaning red. The QQQ is pointing to a 0.13% gain at the open while both large cap indices are pointing to about a 0.32% fall at the open.
The major economic news for Friday includes July Retail Sales and Q2 Nonfarm Productivity (both at 8:30 am), July Industrial Production (9:15 am), and July Business Inventories, Mich. Consumer Expectations and June Retail Inventories (all 3 at 10 am). There are no major earnings reports on the day.
The SPY still sits just below its all-time high. It still seems likely the bulls won’t give in to the bears before they reach that goal of new highs. However, markets do seem hesitant as politicians of all stripes have given up on a stimulus deal for now and more economists are predicting slower recovery in Q3 and Q4 than seen in Q2. So, be a bit careful betting either direction in the short run here.
All we can do is either lighten up positions, tighten up stops or pay extra attention to any trend reversal. Follow the trend, don’t over-extend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves you have missed, and take those profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. Also, bear in mind its Friday…of the political silly season. I might be wise to lighten up on your risk before the weekend news cycles.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PAGS, XLU, RIOT, SLV, ENPH, WU, CL, CDE, HL, NLOK. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
A rebound in the tech sector bounced the QQQ off of trend and price support helped to push the SP-500 within 6 points of a new record high. It seems unlikely to me that we get that close to a big market headline, and the institutions fail to push it through. However, we still have to deal with Jobless Claim data and a big day of bond auctions with rate and currency pricing implications digest today that could create some price volatility. Tuesday afternoon reminded us that the bears are still out there and their restless, hungry, so stay focused and flexible should they happen to find some inspiration in the news.
Asian markets closed mostly bullish overnight even as Australia’s jobless rate hit a 22-year high. European markets appear to be on the cautious side this morning, trading slightly lower as they monitor jobless numbers. US futures are choppy and flat this morning while poised to set a new SP-500 record as we wait on earnings, jobless claims, and significant day of bond auction data.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
The Thursday earnings calendar is the busiest day of the week, with 124 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include AQN, AMAT, BIDU, BAM, FTCH, GLOB, IQ, NTES, TPR, & TK.
News & Technical’s
Ahead of Jobless Claims and a big day of bond auctions US government debit prices are rising this morning. Today the US Treasury will auction $35 Billion in 8-week bills, $30 billion in 4-week bills, and $26 billion in 30-year bonds. Interestingly gold futures are trading lower this morning while silver futures trade slightly higher. Negotiations on the next stimulus bill seem to have ground to a halt and descended into rhetoric driven finger-pointing match of whos to blame. Which side blinks first is anyone’s guess, but they do both seem to agree on the $1200 taxpayer payments. There are new concerns about the accuracy of COVID test data. According to reports reported new infections have declined 19% over the last 7-days, but testing has fallen by as much as 12% over the same period. Texas cases have dropped off by 10%; however, the number of tests fell 53% over the last two weeks. The big question, are the numbers artificially skewed, or are we gaining ground in the pandemic battle? Only time will tell as the nation prepares to reopen schools and colleges.
Yesterday’s rally closed the SP-500 just 6 points below new record highs with a rebound in the tech sector leading the charge higher. The pullback in the QQQ tested support and trend with buyers surging back into the big-5 tech stocks. The bearish price action on Tuesday afternoon was unable to follow-though as we expected. All eyes are on the weekly jobless claims coming out at 8:30 AM eastern. Stay focused and flexible with a new record close at hand and the T2122 indicator suggesting an overextended market we should prepare for just about anything to occur.
The bulls refused to give back any more ground as they can smell those all-time highs just a quarter percent above in the SPY. So, stocks gapped up 0.80% and rallied in a volatile way all day long, closing in the top 20% of their range. On the day, SPY closed up 1.36%, DIA up 1.00%, and QQQ up a hefty 2.52%. As those numbers show, money flooded back into those high-tech, mega-cap FAANG stocks, especially TSLA on the follow-through to its stock split. VXX was down sharply to 25.50 and T2122 also dropped a touch to 91.94 (still well into the overbought territory). 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.67% as money chased risk and Oil (WTI) rose $42.59/barrel.
On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,360,488 confirmed cases and 169,135 deaths. The news cases Tuesday were 54,345, which is just under the 7-day average. However, again the 1,386 deaths were well above the average. The only real news on this front is concern over the data quality. The number of tests done in the most infected states (FL, TX, CA) have fallen in the last two weeks, as the national average number of daily tests has fallen 19% in that time. This reduction takes place even while the percent positive results has increased over that time. In addition, another group of three dozen public health advisors sent a letter to HHS extremely concerned about the Federally mandated change in data collection procedures and mechanisms causing inaccuracies.
Globally, the number of cases rose to 20,836,339 confirmed cases and 747,865 deaths. In Asia, China announced today that chicken (or perhaps its packaging) imported from Brazil tested positive for the virus. India reported 67,000 new cases, which was a record high for that country. Meanwhile, in Europe, France saw its largest increase in daily cases since May 6.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time lean to the green side of flat. The winners were led by Japan (+1.78%) and Singapore (+1.28%). The only loser of note was Australia (-0.67%). Elsewhere the Asian market could best be described as just on the green side of flat. In Europe, markets are broadly in the red so far today. The FTSE leads the losses (-1.14%), but everywhere except Russia (+0.46%) sees some red at this point in the day. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a flat open. The Nasdaq futures are just on the green side, while the SPY and DIA futures are just on the red side of break-even.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to July Import / Exports and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings are limited to ENS, NTES, and WCC before the open. Then after the close AMAT, BIDU, and IQ report.
The SPY sits just below its all-time high. It seems likely the bulls won’t give into a pullback before it tastes those sweet new highs. So, be careful betting on shorts until that has been accomplished. However, despite Tuesday’s black candle, markets remain quite extended. So, longs carry a fair bit of risk here too.
All we can do is either lighten up positions, tighten up stops or pay extra attention to any trend reversal. Stick with your trading rules and execute them with discipline. Don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take your profits along the way. Remember, our job is to achieve trade goals consistently, not to hit the lottery.
Ed
The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PHM, KHC, MAS, CL, FAST, DHI, EBAY, FTV, SWKS, KLAC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
