As we wait on an election decision, the pandemic infection rate surged over 120,000 new cases on Thursday. One has to wonder, with job growth beginning to slow and more than 21 million Americans still requiring unemployment assistance, can this massive rally be sustained? That’s something to ponder as we head into the weekend, and you plan risk forward. With the Dow having gained more than 2200 points since last Friday’s low, a little profit-taking would not be out of the question.
Asian markets closed the week mixed but mostly higher. European markets are trading lower this morning as they continue to monitor the U.S. election uncertainty. U.S futures currently point to lower open, but as earnings results roll in and the Employment Situation number in focus, anything is possible as we slide toward the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On this Friday, we have more than 100 companies stepping up to report. Notable reports include LNG, COTY, CVS, ENS, HSY, HMC, MAR, MYL, TU, TM & VIAC.
News & Technicals’
As counting votes continues to drag, and all the lawyers involved, it feels like we’re waiting on the judge decide who gets custody of us in the divorce. While our focus remains on the election results, the pandemic continues to spread rapidly, with more than 120,000 new cases reported yesterday. Even without government-mandated shutdowns, the concern is growing that business impacts could be severe throughout the winter months. Numbers show that job growth is slowing and more than 21 million Americans still requiring unemployment assistance. According to Moody’s report, the U.S. economy is at a high risk of backtracking due to the surge in pandemic numbers. Whoever wins the election will face the formidable challenge of avoiding a double-dip recession.
After rising more than 2200 points from last Friday’s low, the bulls recovered and held the 50-day average, vastly improving the technical picture of all the index charts. That said, the T2122 indicator shows an extreme short-term overbought condition making new long positions very high risk should profit-takers step in to capture gains ahead of the weekend. Currently, futures markets point to a lower open, but as earrings roll in and markets wait on the Employment Situation number, anything is possible.
Thursday saw another major gap up followed by a volatile day that left a significant upper wick (especially in the SPY) as markets gave back part of the gains at the end of the day. The SPY could certainly be seen as a Shooting Star type candle, while the QQQ was an indecisive Spinning Top Thursday. On the day the QQQ was up 2.61%, and both the SPY and DIA up 1.94%. The VXX was down again to 21.97 and T2122 climbed back deep into the overbought territory at 92.34. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.765% and Oil (WTI) fell to $38.54/barrel.
Thursday afternoon the FOMC held rates at their near-zero level and said the economy continues to recover but remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Chairman Powell said that the Fed was not out of ammunition and will “remain accommodative” with loan and asset purchasing programs staying in place. He went on to continue urging more fiscal stimulus as pretty much every Fed speaker has done for months.
The election continues to be the main focus of talk and news. As the counts continue, a razor-thin margin has emerged in all the “swing states.” At the moment, it appears like Biden is winning with slight leads in Georgia and Nevada. However, enough votes remain to be counted that half a dozen states are still undetermined. And, of course, this is all before recounts and legal challenges to the validity of major groups of votes play out. All told, the market continues to rally, perhaps on the prospect of a split government with the Administration, Senate and House not all in one party’s hands. However, there is no word yet on the resumption of stimulus negotiations.
On the virus front, we had yet another record high of new cases Thursday (by over 10,000 cases) at 121,888 confirmed. In total, the numbers show we have had 9,926,637 confirmed cases and 241,026 deaths. This record day raised the 7-day average of new cases to 96,454 while the average of daily deaths to 905/day. In fact, the only two states trending down are AL and TN. As a result, more states have tightened mask mandates, imposed new restrictions on gatherings, and extended emergency proclamations. RI issued another stay-at-home advisory.
Globally, the numbers rose to 49,169,894 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,241,870 deaths. This includes a global record day of 608,550 cases and 9,056 deaths, which has led the 7-day average of new cases to 523,344 while the 7-day average virus deaths is now at 7,338/day. Obviously, this means more restrictions, lockdowns, and economic trouble, especially throughout Europe.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. India (+1.18%), Indonesia (+1.43%), and Malaysia (+1.21%) led the significant gainers. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.77%) was the only significant loser among a handful of moderate losses. In Europe, markets are red across the board so far today. Among the big 3 bourses, DAX is down 0.86%, CAC down 0.71%, and the FTSE flatter at -0.16% as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to the red side. The DIA is implying a -0.48 open, the SPY implying a -0.67% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.96% open at this point.
The major economic news for Friday includes Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Unemployment Rate, and Oct. Participation Rate (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports include AES, CLMT, CQP, LNG, COTY, CVS, DISH, UFS, ELAN, HSY, IEP, MGA, MAR, MYL, PRIM, TU, VTR, and ZBH before the open. There are no major reports after the close.
Election uncertainty remains as does a wild-fire virus. The politicians are still focusing on and/or absorbing the election results. So, stimulus measures are not yet back front and center in Washington. Expect more volatility and remember that this is Friday. After the run of the last few days, we may see more profit-taking and hedging going into the weekend.
Stick with your trading rules and maintain discipline. Keep taking your money when you reach goals and don’t let profits evaporate waiting on “just a little more.” Don’t chase the moves you have missed, follow the trend, and respect those support and resistance levels. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IVZ, DRI, HCA, IR, TUP, FLR, CFG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Extraordinary bullishness pushed indexes above their respective 50-day averages yesterday, vastly improving the index charts’ technical picture. However, the extreme price move comes with the significant risk of a dramatic pullback as the pandemic infection rates surge to a new daily record, and hospitalizations reach critical levels in several states. As Italy enters a shutdown, the ECB announced another 150 billion in bond buying, helping boost market around the world this morning.
Asian markets surged overnight following the massive Wall Street rally on Wednesday. European markets are green across the board despite the rising economics of more lockdowns going into effect. The U.S. futures are once again flying high this morning ahead of a massive day of earnings reports and an FOMC rate decision at 2 PM Eastern.
As they continue to count votes is looking more and more like a Biden win is on the way. Still, some are saying we won’t have a definitive decision with multiple legal challenges until late November or early December. However, it looks as if whoever becomes President, the results in the Senate and House point toward gridlock, which the market appears to like gaging by its wildly bullish response yesterday. While everyone focused on election results, the pandemic infection rates soared to a new daily record of more than 100,000. Hospitalizations also surged at an alarming rate, reaching record levels in Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and New Mexico. Iowa and Missouri warned the hospital bed capacity could soon become overwhelmed. Senate Leader Mitch McConnell is now suggesting an urgency to come to a stimulus agreement by the end of the year, boosting futures markets. Also helping to boost market sentiment this morning, the ECB injected another 150 billion in bond buying as Italy enters lockdown.
Yesterday’s market surge was extraordinary as the bulls gapped the four major indexes above their respective 50-day morning averages. In a late-day selloff, the DIA drifted back down below it 50-day while the SPY, QQQ, and IWM held on to this key psychological support. Facing our biggest day of earnings reports so far this quarter as well as an FOMC rate decision, we can expect significant price volatility. With the indexes, so extended traders will have to shoulder the substantial risk of pullback to enter long positions. That said, with hopes of a stimulus deal on the horizon, entering short positions also carries substantial risk. Set aside emotion and plan carefully in this very news-driven market.
Wednesday saw a major gap up and some follow-through on relief that the election was behind us. The tech-heavy QQQ that has led the way with a gap-up of almost 3.2%. However, the election has not been concluded as counting continues. Perhaps it was that uncertainty led to a selloff that lasted all afternoon left large upper wicks in the major indices. On the day QQQ gained 4.46%, SPY gained 2.23%, and DIA gained 1.41%. The VXX was down almost 9% to 22.35 and T2122 fell back out of the over-bought territory to 67.48. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.771% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 4% to $39.13/barrel.
The election continues to be the main news. While absentee ballot counting, recounts, and several lawsuits remain to play out, it is now looking like a split government in January. That would greatly impact the ability of a Democratic President to enact their agenda. It would also likely impact the amount and type of stimulus. Nonetheless, regardless of the Presidential election outcome, Senate Majority Leader McConnell has said that stimulus will be the main priority the remainder of this year, but unless something has changed the current Senate objects to anything more than small stimulus, while the market expects a large amount. This all may feed into what the Fed does and says this afternoon.
On the virus front, we had yet another record high of new cases Wednesday with 108,389. The numbers show we now have 9,802,374 confirmed cases and 239,842 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 92,702 while another 1,200-death day raised the average daily deaths to 894/day. Even with this a significant proportion of American society refuse to mask, maintain social distance or make additional efforts to wash/disinfect. However, in good news, experts expect any new lockdowns will help lessen the impact of flu season which is also now on us. A single test to identify both Covid and the flu has also been developed.
Globally, the numbers rose to 48,561,473 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,232,955 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is 516,520 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 7,111/day. Several more European countries reported new record-high new case counts Wednesday, including UK, Germany, France, Poland, Czech Republic, and Russia. Meanwhile, new national lockdowns took effect in the UK and Germany as Italy and Spain both expanded regional quarantines. In Asia, a third-wave of cases has started in India and South Korea has implemented new restrictions in one province.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Hong Kong (+3.25%), Thailand (+3.43%), and Indonesia (+3.04%) were the big winners, but all major Asian indices were up well over 1%. In Europe, markets are slightly more mixed, but lean heavily to the upside so far today. The FTSE (+0.23%), CAC (+0.92%), and DAX (+1.48%) are all green with Russia (+2.21%) and Denmark (+2.24%) leading gainers. The only three countries in the red are Greece, Belgium, and Norway. As of 7:30am US futures are also pointing to a very positive open. The DIA is implying a +1.35% open, the SPY implying a +1.73% open, and the QQQ implying a +2.58% gain at the open.
The major economic news for Thursday includes Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), a Fed Rate Decision and Statement (2 pm) and the FOMC Press Conference (2:30 pm). Major earnings reports include BABA, ABC, ARNC, AZN, AAWW, BLL, GOLD, BCE, BDX, BMY, CNQ, CAH, CNP, CI, CNHI, COMM, CORE, XRAY, DISCA, D, DUK, GM, GLP, HBI, HFC, HII, IRM, KELYA, NXST, NTDOY, ODP, PH, REGN, REZI, TRGP, TEVA, THS, VMC, WCC, WRK, and ZTS all report before the open. Then after the close ADT, AEE, AIG, BKNG, BFH, CZR, CNDT, ED, BAP, CWK, DXC, EOG, FLS, HLF, MTD, MNST, NWSA, PBA, PFSI, RGA, RSG, SRE, SWX, SQ, TMUS, TDS, TSE, UBER, USM, and XPO report.
As the election count winds down, markets are loving the certainty that will bring. The market seems to believe that protracted lawsuits will not have an effect on future direction. Stimulus, the virus, and earnings are back at center stage now. Just be aware that the Fed does have a limit to what they can do this afternoon, but certainly nobody is expecting any tightening or ending of Fed bailout loan programs. So, while short-term volatility in likely to continue, the market seems happy to have the election (mostly) in the rearview mirror.
Remember to follow your rules and maintain discipline, Take your money when you reach goals and don’t let profits evaporate waiting to bag “just a little more.” Follow the trend, don’t chase moves you have missed and respect both support/resistance and your stops. (Bear in mind that a $100 loss looks great when you now have a $1000 loss.)
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, ENPH, ABBV, MSFT, RIG, FAS, IDXX, DVN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With the Whitehouse battle likely to extend for days and the Congressional bodies remaining in mixed party control, uncertainty and the challenging price volatility are likely here to stay. What does this mean for the hoped-for stimulus package? Will the Presidential election become a long drawn out market damaging court battle? A lot for investors to ponder as we now wait on an FOMC rate decision Thursday afternoon. Expect considerable sensitivity to news events as the market tests price and technical resistance levels in the index charts.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher in a volatile session as the monitored polling results. European markets are trading with modest gains across the board this morning. After a night of wild price swing, U.S. Futures are trying to remain bullish ahead of earnings and the beginning of the 2-day FOMC meeting. I think it fair to say anything is possible, so remain focused and flexible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the post-election hump day, we have just under 90 companies fessing up to quarterly results. Notable reports include ALB, ALL, AWK, APA, FUN, CXW, CRY, DCP, DK, ET, EPR, EXPE, EXR, FIT, GDDY, GDOT, HST, H, JKHY, KGC, LC, LBTYA, MRO, MTCH, MELI, MET, NUS, OUT, PAAS, PAYC, PRGO, PSA, QCOM, SGMS, UMH, UPWK, VOYA, WEN, & ZNGA.
News & Technicals’
Yesterday’s colossal rally was one of the best election day performance in stock market history. Overnight futures have seen considerable volatility as the Presidential election is close to call, and election officials suggest it may take several more days to count up the results. Last night was a much different result than many thought as the republicans gained seats in the House and held onto control in the Senate. The House will remain under Democratic control setting up a challenging environment for whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. In a late-night speech, President Trump suggested a supreme court battle election battle is on the horizon. I suspect a court contested election battle will keep the market on edge and the price volatility high in the days and possibly weeks ahead. As we wait, the market will turn its attention toward the FOMC meeting that begins today with their rate decision scheduled for Thursday afternoon. In other news, several states voted to legalize the recreational use of marijuana, and Florida voted to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
In just 3-trading days, the Dow has rallied more than 1300 points off the Friday lows, taking the T2122 indicator from an oversold condition that now suggests an overbought condition. With control of the Congressional body’s mixed, there remains considerable uncertainty about the likely stimulus plan’s size that will keep the market guessing. An uncertainty that’s likely to extend as long or longer than the battle for the WhiteHouse. The VIX closing above a 35 handle even as the indexes lept higher price action is likely to remain challenging as the indexes challenge technical resistance levels in the charts.
Tuesday saw a gap higher and a generally bullish day although a selloff at the end of the day left large upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the day, DIA was up 2.02%, SPY up 1.73%, and QQQ up 1.73% also. The VXX fell 5.5% to 24.51 and T2122 bolted up well into the overbought territory at 89.22. 10-year bond yield spiked to 0.892% (a big move up for bonds) and Oil (WTI) climbed nearly 3% to $37.84/barrel.
The entire world (obviously including markets) were focused on the US election, large voter turnout, and how the counting process will go. As predicted, Trump both claimed victory and fraud as he promised to go to the Supreme Court to stop vote counting. However, short of banana republic tactics, the outcome of the voting in many states may not be known for at least days and court proceedings about the validity or suppression of many of those votes could last weeks. Markets, which had been heading up steeply early in the evening have pulled back and diverged sharply on this situation.
On the virus front, we had yet another day of well over 90,000 new cases as the 5 highest case count days have all been recorded in the last week. The numbers show we now have 9,694,176 confirmed cases and 238,656 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 88,915 while another 1,200-death day raised the average daily deaths to 871/day. 36 states are trending the wrong way with only 5 (AL, HI, LA, TN, and VT) showing a reduction in cases. Hospitalizations are also up sharply, particularly in the Midwest. Meanwhile, in TX, the state Atty. General filed injunctions to stop a city (El Paso) from implementing local lockdown measures. At the same time, El Paso is down to using its civic center as a field hospital and is using 4 mobile morgues (cold storage) brought in help handle overwhelmed facilities.
Globally, the numbers rose to 47,428,861 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,213,224 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is just over 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 6,663/day. Much of Europe (especially the most economically dynamic portions of the continent) is now under lockdown again as they try to save their healthcare system.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly modestly green. Only Japan (+1.72%) and Taiwan (+1.04%) had significant moves to the upside, while only Indonesia (-1.05%) had a significant move down. In Europe so far today, Portugal (-1.24%) is the outlier as the rest of the continent is modestly green. The FTSE (+0.42%), DAX (+0.34%), and CAC (+0.68%) are more or less typical across the continent. As of 7:30am US futures (that had been significantly up) are now positive, but widely missed. The DIA is implying a 0.13% gain, the SPY implying a 0.91% gain, and the QQQ implying a 2.67% gain at the open.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Payroll (8:15 am), Imports/Exports and Trade Balance (8:30 am), Oct. Services PMI (9:45 am), Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). In major earnings, we will see CLH, ES, HLT, PSN, PFGC, SMG, TA, and VRT report before the open. Then after the close ALL, UHAL, AWK, APA, EQH, BKD, CF, CTVA, DCP, ET, ENLC, EXPE, FNF, GFL, GDDY, HOLX, LNC, LUMN, MELI, OLN, PXD, PRAH, PSA, QRVO, QRTEA, STN, SUN, TRMB, and UNVR report.
Just as on Tuesday, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main drivers of the market today. While volatility is sure to remain high as the election count drags on and lawsuits begin delegitimizing results. However, there remains palpable relief that the election will finally be “over.” The next question the market will ask is when will the lame-duck government get back to delivering more stimulus? So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but maybe, just maybe there is some light at the end of this tunnel.
With this turmoil still in place, you have to decide whether there has been enough closure to reduce risk enough for you to get back into the election. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ALGN, MPC, PINS, PNR, CRBP, TXN, FEYE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Do you feel lucky? A question all traders will have to ask themselves today as they plan for the possibility of massive volatility in the aftermath of election day. Back to back, 400 point gaps will push the index charts into substantial price resistance levels. As we always say in Right Way Options, gaps are gifts. Heading into such an uncertain outcome may be wise to capture those gains and reduce the risk because anything is possible in the next 24 hours. Experienced day traders will have the upper hand while swing and position traders will have to roll the dice and hope. Be very careful!
Asian markets rallied overnight, reacting to the Australian central bank lowering rates. European markets are decidedly bullish this morning, with the FTSE and CAC surging more than 2% this morning. Ahead of a very news-driven day with both earnings and economic data on the horizon, futures point to another big gap up open. Expect significant price volatility.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
With nearly 90 companies reporting their quarterly results on this election day, we can expect considerable volatility. Notable reports include BHC, CC, DS, ETN, EMR, EXC, EXPD, FOXA, GCI, IT, GAIN, GWPH, HTA, HUM, LPX, PRU, RHP, SYY, TRI, & W.
News & Technicals’
U. S. Futures early this morning suggest back to back 400 point gains! The indexes have experienced a short-term oversold condition, but I must admit a bit of surprise to see the wild bullishness on an uncertain election day. As polls open across the country, businesses have boarded up, bracing for the possibility of riots in the aftermath. Although the voting will be over, will all the uncertainty be over, or will this election drag on being contested? On the virus front, Connecticut decided to roll back reopening as infection rates continue to surge. Let’s hope for the sake of the economy; this is not a trend that accelerates across the country with infection rates rising and antibody drugs in short supply.
With another big morning gap up, traders holding long positions may want to consider it a gift and take the profits ahead of the possible election results volatility. It’s entirely possible the T2122 indicator could flip from oversold to overbought with the substantial gaps in the last couple of days. Remember the wild market volatility of past election days as you plan your risk heading into the close today. If the morning gap holds to the open, keep in mind the DIA, SPY, and IWM will be testing significant price resistance levels. Place your bets and roll the dice because anything is possible over the next 24 hours. Adept day traders will have the upper hand as swing and position traders will find it nearly impossible to hold on to an edge. The question is, Do you feel Lucky?
Monday was a volatile and indecisive day gapping higher about a percent and ending near where price opened on the large-cap indices, leaving us with indecisive Doji candles. QQQ was similar, but faded the gap more than the others to give a black-body Spinning Top candle. On the day, DIA was up 1.56%, SPY up 1.12%, and QQQ up 0.22%. The VXX fell to 25.88% and T2122 climbed back to mid-range at 52.14. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 0.85% and Oil (WTI) surged 3.5% to $37.04/barrel.
Obviously, only the election, the virus, and maybe some earnings surprise will be making news today. While it is possible we will know the outcome of the election by tomorrow, it is also quite possible we won’t know for a week given the shortcomings of the postal service and ballot counting rules varying across the country.
On the virus front, we had yet another day of almost 90,000 new cases. The numbers show we now have 9,568,275 confirmed cases and 237,009 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 86,000 while average daily deaths are also rising at just over 850/day. The American Academy of Pediatricians reported Monday that last week there were over 61,000 new cases among children nationally, bringing the total so far to over 853,000. We are at record levels with 47 states showing increases in new case counts the last week, 26 states have deaths increasing versus the previous week. Yet the administration continues to deny reality along with a significant proportion of the population.
Globally, the numbers rose to 47,428,861 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,213,224 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is just over 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 6,663/day. Much of Europe (especially the most economically dynamic portions of the continent) is now under lockdown again as they try to save their healthcare system. However, in spots of Asia, easing continues.
Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green as they expect good news as the US election ends. Singapore (+2.21%), Hong Kong (+1.96%), and Australia (+1.93%) led the way. A similar story is playing out in Europe as they reach their mid-day. The FTSE (+2.00%), CAC (+2.01%), and DAX (+1.80%) are not only the main bourses, but lead the way today. As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to another gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a open up 1.60%, SPY implies a +1.28% open, and the QQQ implies a 0.69% gain at the start of the day.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Sept. Factory Orders (10 am). However, major earnings reports include AGCO, ATH, BHC, BMCH, ETN, EMR, EXC, EEXPD, RACE, FOXA, IT, HUM, NSIT, JELD, JCI, LPX, MCK, SYY, TEF, TRI, W, and ZBRA before the open. Then after the close, ANDE, CC, DAR, PRU, SMCI, and TX report.
Just as on Monday, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main drivers of the market today. While volatility is sure to remain high, even with the likelihood of the President suing to influence the outcome of the election, there is major and palpable relief that the election will finally be “over.” Regardless of the election outcome, the lame-duck government is expected to deliver more stimulus. So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but realize we can see some light at the end of this tunnel now.
Like earnings, the election is an unpredictable, event. Consider very carefully how much risk you want to have on, even if you think you know how the election will go. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CARR, HUN, BP, MPC, CMA, URI, ALGN, NEM, MOS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The bulls indicate a willingness to fight back this morning, with the market finally bouncing from a short-term oversold condition. That said, anything is possible in the next few days as businesses shut down and board up their building in anticipation of the possible election aftermath. A quick study of the enormous emotional price swings during the 2017 election would suggest whipsaws and full reversals are possible in the coming days. Plan your risk accordingly. Experienced day-traders will likely have the upper hand so expect substantial price volatility over the next few days.
Asian markets closed green across the board last night, with China reporting growth in manufacturing activity. European markets are also bullish this morning despite news of the pandemic related lockdown of England this weekend. Ahead of earnings, PMI and ISM Manufacturing, and construction spending data, the U.S. futures are leaping higher this morning as a relief rally begins.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have nearly 70 companies stepping up to report quarterly results this Monday. Notable reports include AMC, AMCX, AWR, CWH, CDW, CLX, CVI, FANG, EL, FE, FRPT, IR, LEG, LDOS, L, LL, MPC, MDLZ, NI, ON, PYPL, O, SWKS, RIG, VNO, WM, & WMB.
News and Technicals’
After a rough week of selling that tested the DIA 200 and 500-day averages, the bulls are trying to get back to work this morning, pointing to a substantial gap up at the open. We closed last week with the T2122 indicator suggest and extreme oversold condition in the short-term, but we will have to be careful with such a strong bounce on the eve of such a news-driven Presidental election. According to reports, businesses have begun boarding up windows and shutting down, fearing the possibility of riots breaking out based on election results. Over the weekend, England, a countrywide lockdown of all non-essential business as Covid cases continue to rise across the eurozone. The U.S. cases spiked to a record high on Friday, with nearly 100K new infections reported. One has to wonder what kind of policy impacts we might face in the U.S. to combat COVID once the election is over?
With markets currently pointing to a considerable bounce this morning, we should expect the massive price volatility to continue as election and pandemic uncertainty looms. The relief rally could quickly start a short squeeze trader hurry to cover positions held over the weekend to preserve profits. However, with the possibility of politically charged news over the next few days, traders will have to remain very nimble. What for quick intraday whipsaws or even full price reversals that could occur overnight. Just remember the massive price swings in 2017 as the election emotion shifted violently. Adept day traders will have the upper hand, with swing and position traders having little to no edge as the future unfolds.
Friday was another volatile, rough day for the markets. All 3 major indices gapped down and sold off early before grinding sideways from 11 am to 3:30 pm. However, a sharp short-covering rally the last few minutes of the day brought prices well up off the lows. As a result, both large-cap indices printed major indecisive candles and even the ugly candle in the QQQ left a substantial lower wick. On the day, QQQ was down 2.54%, SPY down 1.04%, and DIA down 0.57%. The VXX climbed 3% to 26.53 and T2122 fell back deep into the oversold territory at 9.17. 10-year bond yields climbed significantly to 0.874% and Oil (WTI) fell a percent and a quarter to $35.72. The downtrend continued as for the week, the SPY was down 5.56%, DIA down 6.45%, and QQQ down 5.39% in the worst week since March.
Obviously, only the election, the virus and maybe some earnings surprise will be making news the next two days.
On the virus front, the numbers show we now have 9,475,872 confirmed cases and 236,501 deaths. The national new cases per day exceeded 101,000 on Friday, with the 7-day average of new cases now reaching a record of almost 83,000 while average daily deaths are also rising at just over 850/day. We are at record levels with 48 states showing new case increases in the last week (31 states reported at least one record new case count day), 29 states have deaths increasing versus the previous week. On Saturday night, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told CNBC that “there’s going to be a whole lot of pain in this country with regard to additional cases and hospitalizations and deaths” as he said “we need to double-down on masks.” This comes while many continue to downplay the pandemic, insist the problem has passed, and rebel against mitigation and control measures.
Globally, the numbers rose to 46,932,503 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,206,776 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is about 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is over 6,500/day. In Europe, things are getting very bad as countries are shuffling patients across borders to find enough hospital beds. The UK entered its second national lockdown (through at least December 1) on Friday. France’s national lockdown also began Friday and Belgium followed suit. Germany also started a partial lockdown today. Italy is not yet ready to go this far, instead, imposing measures on gathering sizes and closing specific groups of businesses. Spain has not yet gone that far, using expanded regional shutdowns in an effort to stave off a national shutdown.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. South Koreas (+1.46%), Hong Kong (+1.46%) and Japan (+1.39%) led the gains on the day. Europe seems to be following suite, with large gains across the board so far Monday. The DAX (+1.93%), CAC (+1.93%), and FTSE (+1.15%) are good representations of the rest of the continent on upbeat date on the manufacturing front and hope surrounding the end of the US election. As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a open up 1.58%, SPY implies a +1.34% open, and the QQQ implies a 1.03% gain at the start of the day.
The major economic news for Monday includes Personal Consumer Expenditure (7:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports include BCC, CWH, CDW, CLX, CNA, EL, FE, HSIC, JLL, LCII, MPC, MPLX, NI, ON, TEN, and WM before the open. Then after the close, AIZ, CNO, FANG, FMC, G, IR, LEG, MDLZ, NTR, OMI, PYPL, PAA, PAGP, SWKS, STE, RIG, WMB, and YRCW report.
As mentioned, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main sources of volatility in the market now. Even with the likelihood of the President suing many states to influence the outcome of the election, there is a palpable relief that the election will be “over.” And regardless of the election outcome, the lame-duck government will have no impediment to pass more stimulus. So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but realize we can see some light at the end of this tunnel now.
Like earnings, the election is an unpredictable, event. Consider very carefully how much risk you want to have on, even if you think you know how the election will go. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CTLRY, GE, KRE, WFC, CGC, FITB, PACW, CRUS, NXPI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
