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China Inflation and Infrastructure Turn

April 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened mostly flat and then put in a steady rally almost all day. However, a selloff the last 15 minutes showed profit-taking to end the week. Nonetheless, all 3 major averages put in strong white candles and created potential Fig Newton type patterns. On the day, SPY gained 1.08%, DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 1.26%. The VXX started with a 1-for-4 split to open at 41.36, but then sold off almost 4% to close at 40.17 and T2122 rose deeper into the overbought territory at 95.67. 10-year bond yield closed up slightly to 1.56% and Oil (WTI) gained 1% to $62.04/barrel.

US Markets may see China as a forerunner of what is to come in the US. That country has reported record growth in the 1^st quarter with a strong recovery underway. However, Sunday night Bloomberg also reported Chinese April factory inflation is running far ahead of analyst expectations based on surveys of 500 Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises. If US markets see that as an indication of the future for the US, the bulls may have a tough row to hoe.

Speaking of potential causes of future inflation, there was a twist in the Infrastructure plan plot on Sunday. Key Democratic Senator (a party rebel) Manchin praised the GOP $568 billion “counter-proposal” to the Democratic $2.25 trillion plan. However, on the same day, Republican Senator Graham told Fox News that GOP Senators were ready to back as much as $900 billion in a stimulus package. This could be additional evidence that some infrastructure improvement plan will get passed this time.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,824,389 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 586,152. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 57,208 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 724 per day. After the close Friday, the CDC lifted the pause on JNJ vaccine use, which will help with shortages. However, a drop in vaccine demand had already become more than a bit concerning and could become the primary obstacle to herd immunity as early as May according to Dr. Fauci (NIH).

Globally, the numbers rose to 147,874,851 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,124,681 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 818,823 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,742 new deaths per day. The situation is India has become dire as the country broken the global record for new cases for the 5^th straight day. The world has started mobilizing to send oxygen and other aid to that country. However, in Europe, the UK and the Netherlands have further eased restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Taiwan (+1.57%) and South Korea (+0.99%) led gainers while Shanghai (-0.95%) and Shenzhen (-0.89%) passed the losses. In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean green in modest trading so far today. The FTSE (+0.14%), DAX (-0.07%), and CAC (+0.15%) are indicative of the continent. Only Greece (+1.69%) has moved more than a percent so far today. As of 7:40 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and relatively flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.10% open, the SPY implying a -0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.36% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Mar. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ACI, CHKP, LII, and OTIS before the open. Then after the close, AMP, AMKR, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CNI, LU, MKSI, NXPI, OMF, PKG, RRC, SBAC, SSNC, TSLA, and UHS report.

Ahead of a big week of earnings, another Fed Meeting, and other major economic news, markets may be a little uncertain this week. The bulls have the longer-term momentum, but the last week was a choppy sideways slog. Looking at it more broadly, we are still very near the highs and still quite extended after the early April run. Fear remains very low, considering where we are and what we’ve seen the last week. So, trade accordingly.

Follow the trend, do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LAZR, VLDR, PLUG, FCEL, UAVS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Whipsaw

April 23, 2021 by Doug Campbell

Another day, and another news-driven whipsaw, revealing that President Biden will propose doubling the capital gains tax. Proposal or not, the fact remains that the wild price swings this week have elevated the risk and uncertainty for retail traders. Next week we ramp up earnings reports that include several tech giants, so it’s likely the rollercoaster ride of whipsaws and morning gaps will continue for the near future.

Asian markets had mixed results as the HIS surged 1.12% and NIKKEI fell 0.57% in a volatile session to close the trading week. European markets see modest declines across the board this morning even as data suggests their recovery gains strength. Trying to shake off tax-raising proposals, U.S. futures point to a modestly bullish open ahead of earnings, PMI, and New Home Sales numbers.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Today, we get a little break on the earnings calendar with just over 30 companies planning to reveal quarterly results. Notable reports include AXP, HON, KMB, RF,& SLB.

News & Technicals’

Yesterday’s turbulent whipsaw came after a Bloomberg story revealing that President Biden will propose doubling the capital gains tax to fund education and child care. Not surprisingly, the market quickly reacted negatively. Treasury yields are creeping up this morning to 1.558% on the 10-year, with the 30-year rising to 2.245%. Sadly the pandemic issues in India continue to grow, setting a new world record daily infection rate of more than 332,000, topping yesterday’s record. There are also growing concerns around new strains of the virus that are potentially more contagious. Tesla faces pressure in China after customer protests, and the Chinese state media branded the company’s response as arrogant, with regulators increasing their scrutiny of the company.

It’s been a wild week of emotional whipsaws fueled by data and news with another daily reversal as investors try and sort out all the implications. The question to answer is which way will the wind blow today? Will it be a rush back in to chase moving issues, or will there be a run for the day as we head into the weekend? One thing for sure the price action risks have grown due to the large daily price swings. Though we have a lighter day on the earnings calendar, keep in mind next week’s reports ramp up dramatically with big tech in focus. Consequently, the wild ride is likely to continue so plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Supreme Court Limits Watchdog Agencies

April 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on better than expected (lower) Weekly Jobless Claims. However, stocks spent the morning just on the res side of flat. Then about 1pm Bloomberg reported that President Biden is considering a capital gains tax hike on wealthy Americans. That led to an immediate selloff, reaching the lows of the day about 2pm. After that markets ground sideways again into the close. The led to Bearish Harami candles on all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.91%, DIA lost 0.93%, and QQQ lost 1.21%. The VXX gained well over 6% to 10.47 and T2122 fell, but remains inside the overbought territory at 82.69. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.543% and Oil (WTI) rose half a percent to $61.64/barrel.

The Bloomberg report said that the Biden proposal would raise Capital Gains tax to 43.4% for the wealthiest 0.03% of Americans with the rate being 39.6% for those earning more than $1 million per year. In other Washington news, the Senate GOP announced their own $568 billion Infrastructure plan to counter President Biden’s $2.3 trillion package. The plan came in a bit smaller than expected since GOP Senators have been talking with reporters about a $600-$800 billion plan in recent days. However, at least it is something since Senate Republicans have repeatedly killed infrastructure packages in the last couple of years. So, this announcement likely signals that some package will get passed this time. The obvious differences between the GOP and Democratic plans are that the Republic version does not contain money for elderly and disabled, manufacturing industry funds (“green” industries, research, and technology like chipmaking), affordable housing, and also includes about $70 billion less than the Democratic plan for the things that are covered.

In other news, the US Supreme Court has severely limited government agencies (FTC in the specific case) to extract economic relief for consumers or impose sanctions on businesses, even when fraudulent or monopolistic business practices are used. FB had filed a motion in favor of the eventual ruling saying the FTC has no power to force divestiture in its ongoing antitrust case related to their purchase of WhatsApp and Instagram despite findings of monopolistic actions. GOOG did not file in the case, but faces a similar FTC action related to their search and search advertising operations. The major telecom companies and ISPs also will benefit from this ruling.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,669,121 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 584,226. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 64,204 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 730 per day. Texas A&M University announced on Thursday that they have detected a new variant that shows signs of resistance to the mechanisms of existing vaccines. It also shows sign of being more contagious and causing more severe illness than the earlier variants. The rate of US vaccinations has also dropped with some states now having more supply of vaccine than demand for shots.

Globally, the numbers rose to 145,453,767 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,088,267 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 806,371 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,196 new deaths per day. Pakistan called out its army to enforce restrictions and guidelines as the country has run low on oxygen supplies. Neighboring India is supplying hospitals with only two hours’ worth of oxygen at a time as supplies are still critical in the state containing New Delhi. In Germany, the government is pulling the “emergency brake” law and will lockdown most of the country again as of Saturday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned strongly to the green side. Taiwan (+1.19%) and Hong Kong (+1.12%) were the biggest gainers with Thailand (-0.93%) and Japan (-0.57%) leading the losses. However, in Europe, so far this morning markets are red across the board on modest moves. The FTSE (-0.52%), DAX (-0.38%), and CAC (-0.26%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.12% open, the SPY implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.14% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Mfg. and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and Mar. New Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AXP, ALV, HON, KMB, RF, and SLB before the open. There are no major earnings reports after the close.

The bears had their moment as the initial reaction to the Capital Gains tax for the extremely wealthy hit the news. However, the selloff was not dramatic in a broader sense and price remains right in the range of the slight pullback we have seen this week. So, looking at it more broadly, we are still very near the highs and only have seen a relief pullback. Certainly, no new trend has formed yet. Fear remains very low and the market is still extended, but bullish. So, trade accordingly..

Continue to fight the FOMO. Follow the trend, do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: KKR, SKLZ, SLV, NKLA, VXX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Greenhouse Gas

April 22, 2021 by Doug Campbell

In a morning statement, the President pledged to more than double the commitment of the Paris accord, saying he will reduce greenhouse gas by at least 50% in just nine years. This bold stamen comes just before he hosts today’s climate summit with world leaders. What began as a relief rally turning into a full-fledged reversal as traders rush back into stocks. Big point moves like this make a dangerous trading environment. Plan your risk carefully, follow your rules, and remember sharp reversals can go both directions, so avoid chasing with the fear of missing out.

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher overnight as the Nikkei rebounded 2.38%. European markets rally this morning with modest bullishness as they wait on an ECB decision. After a booming reversal and ahead of jobless numbers, the U.S. futures seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach, currently pointing to modestly lower open. Fasten your seatbelt because anything is possible in this emotionally charged market.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have the biggest day of earnings reports this quarter, with nearly 100 companies listed on the calendar. Notable reports include INTC, ALK, AAL, LUV, AEP, ARI, T, BIIB, BJRI, BX, SAM, CLF, DHI, DOW, FE, FCX, GPC, HBAN, MKTX, MAT, NUE, ODFL, ORI, PNR, POOL, STX, SKK, SNAP, SNA, TSCO, TPH, UNP, VLO, VRSN, & WWE.

News & Technicals’

The President is hosting a climate summit today, but before it begins, pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030. His target is more than double the commitment under the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Treasury yields are declining slightly this morning ahead of today’s Jobless numbers dipping to 1.552%. The forecast is for 603,000 new jobless claims last week. India reports a single-day jump in pandemic infections, with more than 314,000 cases confirmed in 24 hours. That number surpassed the world’s previous highest daily record. Hospitals are said to be overwhelmed and turning away patients due to a shortage of beds, including critically ill patients.

Markets zoomed during yesterday’s rally as this emotional all-or-nothing market condition whips. We’re either rushing to buy anything moving or running for the doors with substantial risk due to the significant point moves. With a big day of data ahead, we should expect more of the same today. Though yesterday was a very bullish day, keep in mind we still have resistance highs to deal with, and that index chart remains in a very extended condition. Stay with the bullish trend but guard yourself against getting caught up with the fear of missing out, chasing into already very extended stocks. When running fast, a market stumble can create very painful reversals. Stay focused and avoid overtrading.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

PreMarket Waiting on Jobless Claims

April 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened up just on the South side of flat and the bulls were in-charge the rest of the day on a slow, protracted rally that closed near the highs. This reversed the 2-day losing streak and left us with Bullish Engulfing candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. On the day, the SPY and DIA both gained 0.92% and the QQQ gained 0.86%. The VXX fell over 5% to 9.84 and T2122 shot back up well into the overbought territory at 92.89. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.554% and Oil (WTI) fell over 2.5% to $61.08/barrel.

In follow-up to the Archegos fund over-leverage collapse, Credit Suisse (one of the major lenders allowing Archegos to lever up) reported a $275 million loss for the quarter and expects to take another $650 million hit next quarter from the same event. In related news, the SEC has begun an investigation of US funds regarding leverage disclosures and both the House and Senate Banking Committees have begun research into large US banks that fund such derivative leverage. This will include testimony from the CEOs of JPM, BAC, C, WFC, GS, and MS in late May.

Commodity prices are spiking recently. Interestingly, not so much for commodity input prices. For example, raw wood (logs) have not gone up, but cut lumber prices have gone through the roof. Regardless, so far this earnings season, most of the major companies reporting have been saying they now have “pricing power.” (Meaning they feel public expectations are going to allow them to increase prices to improve profits in quarters to come.) This includes KO, PG, CLX, etc. CNBC had a couple of analysts on air last night saying they expect AMZN will also have that pricing power and is likely to raise prices to increase profit soon. If they do so, that trend will almost immediately be followed by WMT, TGT, and other retailers.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,602,051 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 583,330. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 65,239 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 736 per day. The White House announced that we have now exceeded 200 million vaccination jabs given accounting for more than 51.5% of adults having one jab. In fact, the CDC says 26% of the entire population is now fully vaccinated.

Globally, the numbers rose to 144,561,695 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,074,781 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and are now at an all-time peak and with 799,520 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,258 new deaths per day. India reported a new record number of cases (surpassing the worst day in the US) with nearly 315,000 new cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed be mostly green. Japan (+2.38%) was an outlier to the upside, but most exchanges in the region reported modest gains. Exceptions included Thailand (-0.75%), Taiwan (-0.61%), and Shanghai (-0.23%). In Europe, so far today, with the exception of Russia just on the red side of flat, markets are green across the board. The FTSE (+0.07%) is flat, while the DAX (+0.44%) and CAC (+0.63%) are up as of mid-day. At 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the red side of flat, albeit before the Weekly Jobless Claims are released.

The only major economic news scheduled for Thursday are those Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and Mar. Existing Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ALK, ALLE, AAL, AEP, T, BIIB, BX, CLF, DHI, DHR, DOW, FAF, FCX, GPC, HCA, HBAN, IQV, NUE, ODFL, ORI, PNR, POOL, DGX, RS, SAP, SNA, SON, LUV, TAL, TSCO, TPH, UNP, VLO, and WSO all before the open. Then after the close, CSL, CE, FE, INTC, MAT, STX, AKX, SNAP, and SIVB report.

Even with the bulls stepping back into the market Wednesday, there has not been a lot of energy in markets this week. Markets are back to approaching the recent all-time highs and are extended again on a modest move. So, just as I warned of getting all-in on the short side yesterday, I think we need to be careful getting giddy on the long side today. Fear remains extremely low in an extended market. So, the risk of a more significant and abrupt relief pullback remains.

Remember, you don’t have to jump in or jump out. Maybe dipping a toe or starting small is a more reasonable approach to this market at this point. Fight the FOMO. Follow the trend, do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FSR, GLW, HPQ, LULU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Netflix disappointed investors

April 21, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The substantial point decline yesterday added insult to injury after the bell as Netflix disappointed investors with the substantial decline in subscriber growth. However, consumer staples, utilities, and packaged food-related stocks surged as investors moved to more defensive positions. Technically the QQQ suffered the most damage falling below the price support of the February high. With the sharp NFLX decline, the NASDAQ is vulnerable to more selling as the index seeks price support.

Asian markets had a rough night, with Japan declining another 2%, with Hong Kong not far behind, falling 1.76%. Despite that, the European indexes see green across the board this morning with modest gains. With a big day of earnings and a petroleum number later this morning, U.S. futures have recovered from overnight lows, currently pointing to a flat to a slightly positive open. Prepare for more price volatility as the market reacts to earnings data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 66 companies listed to report, but many are unconfirmed. Notable reports include CMG, ANTM, BKR, CP, CHDN, DFS, EFX, GL, HAL, KMI, LRCX, LVS, LAD, NDAQ, NEE, NEP, RHI, RCI, SNBR, VZ, & WHR.

News & Technicals’

After the bell yesterday, Netflix disappointed investors as subscriber growth declined sharply, and adding insult to injury, the company projects that next quarter the trend is likely to continue. A challenging beginning to the big tech reports. After a record of 109 SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) deals in March, the SEC shut off the pipeline with new accounting guidance. SPAC’s warrants will now receive the classification of liabilities instead of equity instruments. Amazon plans to connect your credit card to a palm print scan payment system in their Whole Foods stores. According to the company, they have already signed up thousands of users to the new technology. The debut of new Apple tech upgrades unimpressed investors yesterday, leaving behind a bearish engulfing pattern on the chart.

Although yesterday’s selling looks relatively benign on the index charts, I suspect it was painful for those not prepared for the substantial point decline. However, as we head into another big day of earnings data, the premarket futures try to put on a brave face recovering from overnight lows despite the big NFLX disappointment. Energy and financial sectors continued to show weakness yesterday as consumer staple and utilities sector stocks surged higher. Also, keep an eye on packaged food and farm-related commodities as California drought concerns and inflation worries push the stocks upward. With only petroleum numbers later this morning on the economic calendar, be prepared for the typically wild earnings price volatility as the market reacts.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

NFLX Subscriber Miss = ReOpening Shift?

April 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down slightly on Tuesday and then followed-through most of the morning before grinding sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. This left us with a black Spinning Top indecisive candle in all 3 major indices on a so-far mild pullback of just over one percent. On the day, SPY lost 0.70%, DIA lost 0.77%, and QQQ lost 0.73%. VXX gained two percent on the day to 10.40 and T2122 fell a bit to 44.30, still in the midrange. 10-year bond yields fell significantly again to 1.562% and Oil (WTI) dropped 1.2% to $62.61/barrel.

After hours, NFLX reported a huge miss on subscriber numbers for Q1, despite a 24% gain in revenue and a strong beat on earnings. AAL also announced plans to begin hiring pilots again as travel continues to pick up. These both may be bellwethers of a market shift into reopening plays. Earlier in the afternoon, AAPL said they will begin enforcing the iPhone privacy changes FB has been fighting as of next week. This morning, GS has upgraded NCLH on the expectation of a resumption in cruises later this year.

New mortgage demand jumped almost 9% as rates fell to almost a two-month low. This was the first increase in mortgage applications since February. Refinance applications jumped 10%, but remained 23% lower than one year ago.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,536,470 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 582,456. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 67,151 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 747 per day. All Americans 16 and older are eligible for vaccination as of Monday. In bad news for JNJ on the PR front, as both the CDC and CNBC reported that the company lied to the public when it claimed that the competing vaccines from PFE and MRNA also have caused clotting issues. JNJ cited a study from Brown University, the lead author of which told CNBC there was no such finding or any problems whatsoever were found for any vaccines other than the one from JNJ.

Globally, the numbers rose to 143,663,051 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,060,651 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is very near the all-time peak and are now at 789,158 per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,196 new deaths per day. The WHO announced that the world has had more cases this week than any previous week since the beginning of the pandemic. Nonetheless, the Netherlands announced easing restrictions on April 28. JNJ vaccine shipments will resume in the EU, Norway, and Iceland after completion of the European clotting investigation. Meanwhile, in India the situation is getting desperate as the country reported another new high number of cases, hospitals are over capacity and the state containing Mumbai reported at least 22 deaths of people waiting for oxygen as supplies have been depleted.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board. The only green in the region was Shenzhen (+0.35%). However, Japan (-2.03%), Hong Kong (-1.76%), and South Korea (-1.52%) were more representative. In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean to the green side so far in the day. Russia (-1.02%) leads the losses, but the FTSE (+0.46%), DAX (+0.24%), and CAC (+0.71%) are more typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.02% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.14% open.

The only major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 am. Major earnings reports on the day include ANTM, ASML, BKR, ERIC, FHN, HAL, KNX, LAD, NDAQ, NEE, NVR, RCI, TEL, and VZ before the open. Then after the close, CACI, CP, CMG, CCI, EFX, KMI, LRCX, LSTR, LVS, PLXS, RHI, RUSHA, SNBR, STC, UFPI, VMI, and WHR report.

Despite the mild (controlled?) pullback of the last two days, the bears do not seem to have overpowering momentum. This feels like a normal relief pullback in a rally. Certainly the market has been extended on its strong run since the tail-end of March. However, there is a possibile support level just below and if the uptrend has been broken, it was a tightly-drawn trendline for sure. And we definitely have not bult a downtrend (which requires lower highs and lower lows). So, unless you are sure we are now in a bear trend, you might think twice before getting all-in on the short side.

Remember, cash is a valid position. We don’t have to trade every day or week for that matter. Make sure we have a trend and follow it. Do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GDX, BTG, SSRM, KGC, NUGT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Big Tech News Events

April 20, 2021 by Doug Campbell

It’s time to buckle up and get ready for the volatility that big tech news events can inspire. Apple will reveal its new products later today, and after the bell, Netflix will be the first tech giant to report quarterly results. With indexes so elevated, they will need to report near perfection to support current valuations. With lowered analyst expectations, it’s certainly possible, but traders should prepare for the possibility of substantial morning gaps as the market reacts. Market emotion is high, so plan your risk carefully.

Overnight Asian markets struggled as Japan dropped nearly 2% as China leaves lending rates unchanged. European markets display red across the board this morning, with global markets showing weakening sentiment. Ahead of earnings and the kick-off to big tech reports later today, U.S. futures currently point to a lower open as treasury yields rise.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 35 companies listed, ready to report quarterly results. Notable reports include ABT, AN, CMA, CSX, DOW, EW, FITB, HOG, IBKR, ISRG, JNJ, KEY, LMT, MAN, NFLX, PM, PG, TRV, & XRX.

News & Technicals’

Later today, we have a couple of big tech news events that could have a market effect. First, Apple will roll out new versions of their high-end iPads and maybe even some new tech devices. After the bell, we will get our first tech giant earnings report when Netflix reveals its results. Keep in mind this sets the stage for possible market gaps on Wednesday’s open, which will likely continue as we progress through the tech titan reports. This morning the 10-year Treasury yields perked up to 1.619%, and the 30-year climbed to 2.315%, reacting to the latest earnings results that hint of rising inflation. India reports over 200,000 daily Covid cases for the 6^th consecutive day topping over 15 million as hospitals struggle under the increasing pressure. According to the IEA, energy-related carbon emissions will surge by nearly 5% this year as the world Covid recovery begins. The organization is sounding a warning that this surge is unstainable for our climate.

Futures attempted a bounce in overnight trading, but we see a bit of bearishness as we begin another day of potential market-moving earnings reports so far this morning. The SPY and the QQQ look to be the most vulnerable, leaving behind evening star-type candle patterns in very extended market conditions. With price and moving average supports significantly lower, it could be a painful pullback should the bears find inspiration to attack. Thus far, earnings reports have come in glowing positive, but that could negatively affect inflation hawks watch rising treasury yields this morning. Expect the challenging price volatility to continue and even intensify as the risk of significant morning gaps increase as the tech giants begin to report. Stay focused and flexible as anything is possible during earnings season.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

SP-500 P-E ratio hit 37.5

April 19, 2021 by Doug Campbell

With last week’s bullish run, the SP-500 P-E ratio hit 37.5 as earnings top analysts lowered expectations by as much as 22%. Coca-Cola reported this morning topping analysts’ targets as the futures try to rise off of overnight lows. Keep in mind if the bears were to find inspiration, the price support levels in the SPY and QQQ are painfully lower due to their extended condition. Plan your risk carefully and avoid complacency remembering anything is possible as 2^nd quarter earnings ramp up over the next couple of weeks. Significant morning gaps are possible.

Asian markets mostly rallied through the India markets plunged as pandemic infection rates continue to surge to severe levels. European markets trade mixed around the flatline as they monitor earnings and global sentiment. As the premarket earnings roll out, the U.S. futures rise off overnight lows but still point to a modestly lower open. Prepare for price volatility to remain challenging in this elevated market condition.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We will have a busy week on the earnings calendar as the 2^nd quarter earnings season ramps up. Notable reports include ACC, KO, HXL, Ibm, MTB, PLC, STLD, UAL, & ZION.

News and Technicals’

After another very bullish week in trading, the SP-500 P-E ratio hit 37.5, 89% above the historical 10-year average. However, there seems to very little concern about inflation, with the 10-year Treasury yields start the week modestly lower. Trip.com surged more than 4% from their issue price in its Hong Kong debut. According to reports, we reached a pandemic milestone with half of U.S. adults vaccinated with at least one shot. It occurred just one day after the U.S. reported the Covid death toll topping 3 million Americans. China’s CanSino Bilogicis will start clinical trials for a Covid vaccine administered through inhalation though the efficiency rates of China vaccines have much lower effective rates.

The DIA, SPY, and QQQ charts appear highly extended on the technical front, and though the futures indicate a lower open, they are well off of overnight lows as earings roll out. Logically one would expect a significant pullback to begin, but with the lowered analyst expectations, companies thus far have been able to top these targets by nearly 22%. Though many companies are not earning more than they were one year ago, the low expectations and the frenzy of buying something no matter the price could easily continue. However, should the market find a reason to stumble, the pullback could be very painful, so at the risk of sounding like a broken record, avoid overtrading but stay with the bullish trends as long as this party continues to rage.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

TSLA Trouble, KO Beats On Strong Demand

April 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets made a small gap higher at the open Friday and then ground sideways in a flat session to end the week. That left all 3 major indices in indecisive Doji candles, but also closing at new all-time high closes. On the day, QQQ gained 0.12%, SPY gained 0.33%, and DIA gained 0.41%. VXX fell a bit again to 9.81 and T2122 rose slightly further into the overbought territory at 88.82. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.59% and Oil (WTI) fell half a percent to $63.07/barrel.

On Friday TSM released its annual report saying that trade tensions may well make the global chip shortage worse. Taiwan (particularly TSM) is already stuck between Chinese and American blacklists. However, the company warns that new protectionist measures in the works by both sides are making key chip-making equipment (such as from AMAT) harder to get and is hampering the company’s ability to increase capacity. This report came just days after two Republican members of Congress urged the US to mitigate the risk of using Taiwanese companies as suppliers of technology. TSM is the leading producer of chips in the world, supplying AAPL, AMD, NVDA, Samsung, and many other technology market leaders.

On Saturday the Consumer Product Safety Commission issued an “urgent warning” to consumers that they should stop using the PTON treadmill. PTON responded by saying there is no reason to stop using their machine if safety instructions have been followed. Then Sunday, a TSLA crashed in TX (killing two) apparently operating under the TSLA “Full Self-Driving” autopilot mode (with nobody in the driver’s seat. In better stock news, KO beat on both lines during pre-market and said demand has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,404,463 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 581,061. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 68,151 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 738 per day. The CDC said Sunday that more than half of US adults have received at least one Covdi-19 vaccination dose and one-third of adults are now fully vaccinated. In addition, Dr. Fauci said Sunday he expects a decision on the JNJ vaccine to be made by Friday and he expects the vaccine to go back into use, with a warning label. However, the bad news is that US demand for vaccination is waning.

Globally, the numbers rose to 142,102,302 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,035,109 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is very near the all-time peak and are now at 760,528 per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 11,864 new deaths per day. Monday marked the 5th straight day of a record high for new cases in India. In Europe, PFE/BNTX have agreed to supply an extra 100 million does to the EU, including an extra 50 million during Q2 (bringing the Q2 total to 240 million and the grand total to 600 million).

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with India (-1.77%), Indonesia (-0.55%), and Malaysia (-0.50%) being the only red. Shenzhen (+2.89%), Thailand (+1.68%), and Shanghai (+1.49%) led the gainers. In Europe, markets are mixed on mostly modest moves so far today. Greece (-2.02%) is a dramatic outlier. However, the FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (-0.04%, and CAC (+0.41%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:40 am, US Futures are pointing to a red open. The DIA is implying a -0.24% open, the SPY implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.33% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include KO, MTB, and PLD before the open. Then after the close, CCK, IBM, STLD, UAL, and ZION all report.

The bulls continue to refuse to be denied. Even with bad news for tech darling TSLA over the weekend, it does not seem like the bears have much traction as earnings continue to be blowout positive so far this quarter. On average 85% of the companies that have reported have beat estimates…and are beating by an average of 22%. So, think long and hard before you fight the trend. However, also be leery about this kind of bull run lasting too much longer without relief. Long runs without down days or pullbacks aren’t normal.

Follow the trend, don’t predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success. Also, remember this is Friday, so prepare for the weekend news cycle, and don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday, but Rick will be back home Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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