Jobless Claims data helped the Bulls who were in-charge Thursday.  SPY gapped up 1.03%, DIA gapped up 0.45%, and QQQ gapped up 1.43%. From there, DIA continued higher immediately and strongly for an hour.  Meanwhile SPY and QQQ pulled back for 20 minutes before the Bulls followed the DIA in a strong rally, which lasted until 10:50 a.m.  At that point, all three major index ETFs ground sideways until 1 p.m. Then the entire market rallied again to new highs of the day at 2:25 p.m.  From there, we saw a 75-minute, moderate pullback followed by a 20-minute bounce at the end of the day to take all three major index ETFs out near the highs of the day. This action gave us large white-bodied candles in all three.  All three had small upper wicks, with DIA having very little lower wick, SPY having a modest lower wick, and QQQ having a large lower wick.  All three retested their T-line (8ema) from below and closed just below that level.  This happened on average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as less-than-average volume on the DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were green with Technology (+3.60%) way out front leading the others higher.  Meanwhile, Utilities (+0.70%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.77%) lagging well behind the others.  At the same time, SPY gained 2.31%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 3.06%. VXX plummeted 7.96% to close at 63.47 while T2122 climbed back out of its oversold area to 42.22.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields jumped up to 3.989% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.10% to close at $76.06 per barrel.  So, Thursday was bullish revenge day where NVDA (+6.13%) led the charge of the 10 big dogs leading the rest of the market higher.  In fact, it was the best day for SPY since 2022.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday was limited to the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which showed a bit less than expected filings at 233k (compared to a forecast of 241k and the prior week’s 250k).  At the same time, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than predicted at 1,875k (versus a 1,870k forecast and the previous week’s reading of 1,869k).  Together, this Jobless Claims data calmed market fears about recession, causing a premarket surge.  Later, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was down by $3 billion, from $7.178 trillion to $7.175 trillion.

In Fed speak news, on Thursday, Richmond Fed President Barkin played down the idea of a need for urgent (especially inter-meeting) rate cuts.  He said the FOMC has time to determine where the economy is, saying “I think you’ve got some time in a healthy economy to figure out whether this is an economy gently moving into a normalizing state … it this one where you really do have to lean into it (meaning cuts).” Speaking about the labor market, he said “What I hear from folks on the ground in the labor market is that people are cutting back on hiring, but not firing.”   In relation to inflation, he said, “I’m actually pretty optimistic that over the next few months we’re going to see good readings on the inflation side.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterated his earlier statements that the Fed’s job is not to respond to the stock market or political considerations.  He said, “The Fed’s out of the election business. The Fed is in the economic business.” He went on to say, “We’re not in the business of responding to the stock market. We’re in the business of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices.”

After the close, AKAM, AMN, CCU, DTEGY, DBX, DXC, EDN, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, NWSA, NWS, PBI, REZI, RXT, SOLV, and TTD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATSG, IAG, PARAA, PBA, and PARA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CPRI, CENX, PODD, PAAS, and TTWO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, NGL, SSP, and TTEC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that DAL, UAL, RYAAY, and ESYJY among other airlines have suspended flights to various parts of the Middle East due to rising tensions between Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis, and Iran.  Later, GM made an odd announcement, saying it is committed to building a profitable operation in China.  The GM CFO said he did not “necessarily accept” the idea that GM is struggling to make money in China, despite the company reporting a $104 million loss in the country in Q2.  At the same time, Reuters reported that AMZN CEO Jassy is happy with the progress of the company’s “Prime Video” and is planning a significant expansion.  (AMZN increased its investment into Prime Video from $1.7 billion to $13.6 billion for 2024.)   Later, TMICY (Trend Micro) is exploring a sale after getting buyout interest in the last few weeks.  After the close, as part of its earnings announcement, PARA said it would be cutting 15% of its workforce.  (The stock was up on the earnings and job cut announcement.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, NTSB Chair Homendy said the agency would like to complete its probe of the BA 737 MAX 9 mid-air door blow-out early in 2025.  She told Reuters that 12-14 months from the time of the January 5 incident would be the target, adding that a survey of BA’s workers in Renton WA will begin soon.  Later, the NHTSA announced that BMWYY (BMW) will recall just under 106k crossover and sedan cars to fix a starter motor overheating issue via a software update.  At the same time, the Fed announced it had imposed an enforcement action on CUBI for “significant deficiencies” related to its risk management and money-laundering practices.  Later, AAPL announce it has changed its EU app store policy and will now charge app developers a fee of 1% on apps, as well as reducing AAPL commissions on all digital goods and services sold through the AAPL’s EU App Store.  (This move came after an investigation and anti-trust finding against AAPL by the EU, but prior to announcement of final punishments.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green to end the turbulent week.  Taiwan (+2.87%), Australia (+1.25%), South Korea (+1.24%), and Hong Kong (+1.17%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we nearly see green across the board at midday with only AEX (-0.10%) in the red.  Meanwhile, the CAC (+0.32%), DAX (+0.15%), and FTSE (+0.39%) lead 14 of the 15 bourses higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.944% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $76.67 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled. 

So far this morning, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, and SLVM have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AMCX and ERVG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SATS and NFE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, despite market rumors, the Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe through the pipeline from Russia continue according to both the Ukrainian and German Energy Ministers.  Ukrainian forces captured a transit/pumping station of the pipeline (located in Sudzha, Russia) during an offensive into Russia earlier this week.  (It is worth noting that 50% of all Russian natural gas exports to Europe flow through that station.)  Elsewhere, CBOE announced it is taking the term “derivatives” to a whole new level.  The exchange plans to launch options tied to the futures of the VIX, which itself is a based on the options that track the S&P 500.  (Take a minute and try to grasp that in full.  CBOE will sell options based on futures of an index that is based on options that are based on another index.)  This new vehicle is scheduled to begin trading on October 14, pending regulatory review.

With that background, it looks as if markets are somewhat calm again so far this morning . All three major index ETFs opened higher in the premarket, but then sold back into the red before recovering into the very modest green just now. The very short-term trend is now bullish while the mid-term trend is bearish. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now back to being close to their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back up out of its oversold area and into the mid-range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split between red and green. However, NVDA (+1.28%) leading the tech in terms of gain and is by far the largest dollar-volume trader The second-largest dollar volume trader is TSLA (+0.08%) which is also (barely) on the green side. Finally, remember its Friday. Monday morning’s gap should have been a warning that you need to prepare your account for weekend news cycles.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets did another trap Wednesday, this time trapping the Bulls.  The SPY gapped up 1.22%, Dia gapped up 0.72%, and QQQ gapped up 1.62%.  At the point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways in a volatile manner until just after 11 a.m.  Then, the rout was on as the selling started and drove all three back down across the open gap and on to new lows at 3 p.m. From they all made a modest bounce that didn’t quite make it back to the previous close before rolling over again.  This led to the sharpest selling of the day during the last 10 minutes and led to SPY and QQQ closing very near their lows of the day while DIA closed not too far up from its own lows.  SPY and QQQ both retested and failed their T-line (8ema) during the day and DIA came close, but did not quite reach a retest before selling off.  This action gave us large, black-body candles with upper wicks in all three major index ETFs. SPY and QQQ printed Bearish Engulfing candles while DIA missed that shape by just a bit.  This all happened on just a tad more than average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials (-1.75%), Healthcare (-1.40%), and Consumer Cyclical (-1.39%) being the biggest movers.  Meanwhile, Communications Services (0.46%), Utilities (+0.43%), and Energy (+0.36%) were the only appreciable gaining sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.67%, DIA fell 0.57%, and QQQ dropped 1.08%. VXX fell 1.77% to close at 69.22 while T2122 dropped back down into the top end of its oversold area at 16.67.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields jumped up to 3.95% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.10% to close at $75.47 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a Bull Trap with a large gap higher, followed by chop, and then the floor fell out.  (The gap was likely the result of US markets following the rest of the world higher on Bank of Japan calming tones leading traders to think the “Carry Trade” (borrowing money at cheap interest in Japan and investing it in higher-yielding stock in the US) may not be dead.  It felt like the Bears waited for Europe to close and then pulled the rug out from under the Bulls.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories, which fell 3.728 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 1.600 million barrels but only slightly larger than the previous week’s 3.436-million-barrel drawdown).  Later, the June Consumer Credit report showed a reduction to $8.93 billion (versus a $9.80 billion forecast and well down from the May $13.95 billion reading).  In other words, spending on credit cards and other borrowing dropped 30% month-on-month.

After the close, APP, CACI, CF, CPAY, CW, ENS, FWRD, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MMS, MKSI, OXBC, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SM, STN, TALO, UVV, VSAT, WES, WTS, ZG, and Z all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOX, ATO, BHF, CENT, CENTA, CPA, EQIX, HI, MATV, MCK, MFC, OXY, SBGI, UGI, and MODG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AE, CHRD, ET, MTW, and MRO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ALTG, NVST, MNST, MODV, and WBD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that major US natural gas producers are preparing to further cut production in order to prop up natgas prices.  The article cites sources at EQT and APA indicate each will cut 90 billion cubic feet per day in production in the second half. In addition, CHK, AR, and EGO are deferring completion of natural gas projects.  Later, EQR announced that it had agreed to acquire 11 major apartment properties (nearly 3,600 apartments total) from BX for $964 million.  At the same time, during its earnings call, DIS announced it may have to pay $5 billion more to acquire CMCSA’s minority stake in Hulu.  The unexpected expense would stem from a CMCSA request that the deal’s appraiser value Hulu at $40 billion. 

Meanwhile, BA said it has ramped up “seeker” (a key component of Patriot anti-missile systems) production after a surge in demand.  BA says it expects 2024 annual production of seekers to beat its previous record production by 20%.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that BHP is considering the sale of its Brazilian gold and copper mining assets that the company acquired during its buyout of much smaller peer Oz Minerals.  (BHP said the purchase of Oz was made to gain access to minerals used in batteries, as opposed to gold and copper.)  Later, after the close, NASA announced that BA’s stranded Starliner crew may return on a SpaceX Dragon capsule in February 2025 since it is still deemed too unsafe to return the Starliner to Earth.  (Meaning the planned 8-day Starliner flight would end up lasting 9-months.) Finally, overnight CNBC reported sources telling it that AAPL is planning to charge iPhone users roughly $20 per month for its AI offering, possibly as part of its “Apple One” subscription. This lucrative service will be rolled out across some AAPL devices later this year.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, BLK and NDAQ jointly asked for an SEC rule change that would allow the listing and trading of options on Ethereum spot price ETFs.  (Comments on the rule request are open for 21 days.)  At the same time, KR won the dismissal of a lawsuit that alleged the grocery chain’s “Farm Fresh” label on eggs misled consumers not on the “fresh” claim but rather that industrial egg production plants are not “farms.”  Later, the NHTSA announced it has opened a new investigation into reports of a “steering rod failure” safety issue among more than 77k NSANY (Nissan) 2021 Rogue crossover vehicles.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is investigating JPM, BAC, and WFC in relation to the banks handling of peer-to-peer Zelle network funds transfers. (The banks told Reuters they are considering whether to sue the CFPB over the agency’s inquiries.) 

Elsewhere, during its hearings into BA safety issues, the NTSB announced it will conduct a survey of 737 MAX factory workers related to safety (quality) culture after determining the mistakes that led to January’s mid-air blowout of a fuselage panel should have been caught years earlier (and the company could not identify what factory workers had even worked on the blown-out panel and removed the missing bolts).  At the same time, passengers filed a proposed class-action suit against DAL for refusing refunds after its recent massive computer outage and thousands of flight cancellations (and thousands more delayed).  Later, INTC was sued by shareholders alleging the company fraudulently concealed the problems that led to its poor Q2 results and plans to cut more than 15% of its workforce.  (INTC CEO and CFO are also defendants in the suit.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with just three of 12 exchanges above break-even. Taiwan (-2.00%), Japan (-0.74%), and India (-0.74%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday on stronger moves than Asia.  The CAC (-1.13%), DAX (-0.77%), and FTSE (-1.12%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.16% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have backed down to 3.925% and Oil (WTI) is unchanged at $75.23 per barrel in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, and WMG.  Then, after the close, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, ALIZY, AVAH, BN, CEIX, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EPAM, LAMR, NRG, PENN, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, FOUR, UA, and UAA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WMS, COLD, CQP, GTN, HBI, MUR, PZZA, and VTRS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COMM, PRMW, SPB, TKO, USFD, and VTNR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ATS, MLM, and NXST missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, global container shipping company Maersk (AMKAF) announced that it expects global container shipping (which is a measure of global GDP) to slow in the second half. The company cited blow-ups in the Middle East (following Israel’s targeting killings in Lebanon and Iran, along with Hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas retaliation expected).  For the full year, Maersk expects global container demand to increase 4% – 6%, which is down significantly from the 7% growth seen in the first half of 2024.  Elsewhere, GS reported hedge funds had the best first half returns that they have seen since 2021.  GS said their survey of 314 hedge funds fount that the average fund made a 5.7% return during the first half, which was not far from 2023’s full-year 7.1%.

With that background, it looks as if the market has settled a bit this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped down a little to start the premarket. However, from there they have put in white-bodied candles to recover most or all of the gap. DIA is the most indecisive of the three and the QQQ gap down took it near to retesting its 200sma which may have aided its bounce in the early session. The short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are a bit stretched below their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back down in its oversold range. So, the market is in need of some rest or a relief bounce. However, the extension is not overwhelming and the bounce does not need to be today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with INTC (+0.95%) leading the tech in terms of gain. However, NVDA (+0.28%) is again by far the largest dollar-volume traded (as usual).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets continued its rebound after Monday’s brutal gap down.  The SPY gapped up 0.39%, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.45%. From there, all three major index ETFs rallied most of the day to reach the highs just before 3 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off sharply the last 75 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs. However, all three had large upper wicks.  DIA also retested and failed its 50sma from below. This all happened on slightly above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

For the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+1.41%) leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.74%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.02%, DIA gained 0.88%, and QQQ gained 1.07%. VXX dropped sharply (but not nearly as sharply as it spiked Monday) to close at 72.38.  Meanwhile, T2122 jumped up out of the bottom of its oversold territory into the lower end of the mid-range at 30.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.902% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.26% to close at $73.13 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw a modest recovery from Monday’s brutal losses.  However, late profit-taking wiped out much of the bounce.  So, again, volatility was the watchword of the day.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included the June Exports, which came in up at $265.90 billion (compared to a May $262.00 billion value).  On the other side, June Imports were also up, but not quite as much at $339.00 billion (versus a May reading of $337.00 billion).  Together, these resulted in a lower Trade Deficit as the June Trade Balance was at $73.10 billion (higher than the $72.50 billion forecast and down from May’s $75.00 billion reading).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a very minor build of 0.180 million barrels (compared to an expected 0.850-million-barrel build and far larger than the prior week’s -4.495-million-barrel drawdown).

At noon, the US EIA released its EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook update.  In it, the EIA increased its 2024 forecasts for US oil demand by 100k barrels per day to 20.5 million bpd. However, it left its world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 102.9 million bpd.  Meanwhile, the EIA predicts US oil production will reach a new record of 13.23 million bpd this year, up 300k bpd.  At the same time, EIA cut its forecast annual avg. oil price for WTI by 2.2% to $80.21 per barrel.  Despite this, the agency expects Brent prices to remain between $85 and $90 by year end.  On the Natural Gas side, the EIA cut its US production forecast to 103.3 billion cubic feet per day (down from the prior forecast of 103.5 bcfpd.

After the close, AMGN, AIZ, AXON, CLW, CPNG, DVA, DVN, EXEL, FBAK, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, ILMN, CART, IFF, MASI, MRC, PR, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, TOST, and VFC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AGL, AFG, ASH, PARR, and TRIP missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, IAC, LUMN, RIVN, SVC, and SMCI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ABNB, ARKO, CRC, ENLC, PLUS, MOS, TSE, and WYNN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, UAL began negotiations with the Teamster union for a contract related to 10k aviation maintenance and related workers.  At the same time, MSFT fired back at DAL (similar to how CRWD had done on Monday) saying the airline refused help and unlike its competitors had failed to upgrade and maintain its global IT infrastructure.  MSFT said these failures have made the airline’s recovery to normal operations much longer and harder to accomplish than what their peers experienced. Later, SCHW said that high trading volumes and a technical issue with a “key vendor” was the cause of the brokerage’s Monday outage and long customer service wait times.  At the same time, NASA announced Tuesday that problems with BA’s Starliner spacecraft has caused it to push back the next scheduled launch of astronauts for at least one month.  (The most recent Starliner launch remains stuck at the International Space Station since the beginning of June.)  Later, after the close, SMCI announced a 10-for-1 stock split on September 30 (trading split on October 1).  At the same time, Reuters reported that VFC, LEVI, BRKB (via its Fruit of the Loom brand), TPR and TGT are the apparel makers with the biggest exposure to the political turmoil in Bangladesh.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, SPWR filed for to request Chapter 11 bankruptcy and agreed to sell some of its assets for $45 million.  At the same time, the NHTSA released documents at the start of two 10-hour days of hearings into the BA 737 MAX 9 jet mid-air panel blowout incident from January.  Later the UK antitrust regulator announced it has begun its review of the IBM acquisition of HCP.  At the same time, Chinese regulators announced that TSLA will be performing a “remote recall” (over-the-air update) on 1.7 million cars in that country to fix a defect that files to indicate when the hood is latched.  At the same time, the SEC and CFTC announced that PIPR will pay a total of $16 million in civil penalties to resolve investigations into its trading record-keeping practices. (These very innocuous words cover the fact that the cases stem from unauthorized business communications with other traders via off-books communications platforms.  In other words, collusion between major market participants.)

Elsewhere, legal analysts said that Monday’s blockbuster antitrust ruling against GOOGL may actually aid AAPL in its own antitrust case brought by the same Dept of Justice and states).  The only part of the case where the court ruled in favor of GOOGL was in upholding the ultra-conservative SCOTUS ruling that companies (even monopolies) almost never have a duty to deal with competitors.  This is a key point in AAPL’s defense of its own antitrust case. Later, many major advertisers such as CVS, UL, and others as well as a major ad industry group were sued by the former Twitter as Elon Musk alleges, they are unlawfully conspiring to boycott advertising on his social media platform.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Shenzhen (-0.17%) preventing a clean sweep.  Taiwan (+3.87%) continued its big rebound from Monday while South Korea (+1.83%), Hong Kong (+1.38%), and India (+1.27%) led the main pack of gainers.  In Europe, we do see green across the board on multi-percent moves from all 15 bourses at midday.  The CAC (+1.69%), DAX (+1.28%), and FTSE (+1.10%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.86% open, the SPY is implying a +1.25% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.51% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are higher to 3.933% and Oil (WTI) has popped 1.76% to $74.49 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and June Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, BCO, CTTAY, DBD, GPN, HMC, KMT, ADRNY, LPX, LYFT, NYT, OSCR, RCM, REYN, ROK, SHOP, SONY, SUN, VSH, DIS, and ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CRL, CVS, EMR, ENOV, HLT, NI, NOMD, PLTK, and RXO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BAM, DDL, GEO, and OGE beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. However, CCO, NVO, DNOW, ODP, and PRKS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, an independent council charged with governance of carbon credits reported that about one-third of all existing carbon credits fail to meet the new standard.  The new standard is that the ventures from which the credits are bought must not depend on carbon credit sales revenue to exist.  Elsewhere, 110k customers remain without power in Northern FL following the passing of storm Debby.  Meanwhile, the Fed released its Household Debt survey results for Q2.  The headline is that total US Household Debt edged higher (+0.6%) in the quarter, but the rate of loan delinquencies remained at 3.2%.  (For reference, that delinquency rate hit an all-time high of 4.7% at the end of 2019, before the pandemic.)  Elsewhere, overnight the global market recovery was given a boost by hints that the carry trade (borrowing money at negative interest in Japan to invest at a higher rate elsewhere) is not dead.  The Deputy Bank of Japan Governor gave dovish signals by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when stock markets are unstable.  (This caused the Yen to fall 2% against the Dollar.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are in control early this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket and have printed large, white-body candles (almost no wick) since that gap up. However, be aware that DIA is now retesting its 50sma from below and the SPY and QQQ may also be retesting a potential resistance level above. One candle does not make a trend. So, the short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, the premarket moves have moved all three major index ETFs back closer to their T-lines above and relief a lot of their over-extension, but more relief may be in order. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now out of its oversold range. So, the market has a little more slack to work with in either direction than it did after Monday’s huge gap down. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning with NVDA (+2.02%) leading the rebound again both in terms of gain and dollar-volume traded. The bottom line is that markets are bullish early today but this may just be a relief rally. Remain cautious and be careful of intraday volatility. The whipsaw is real.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Well, Monday was a brutal day for Bulls and a volatile day for everyone.  SPY gapped down a massive 4.01%, DIA gapped down 2.97%, and QQQ gapped down a whopping 5.45%. However, the chasers got hammered as all three major index ETFs rallied hard off that open level (in a very volatile way) with SPY reaching a high at 12:30 p.m. that was up 2.31% from the open.  At the same time, SPY was up 1.00% from its open and QQQ was up 4.25% from its open at 12:30 p.m. Then, all three started an afternoon wave down that lasted the rest of the day.  DIA even recrossed below its opening level.  This action gave us huge gap-down, white-bodied candles with large upper wicks in the SPY and QQQ. Meanwhile, DIA gave us a huge gape-down, white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  QQQ also retested (and passed the test) its 200sma on the day.  This all happened on much heavier-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-3.02%) leading the charge lower.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-2.01%) “held up better” than other sectors but clearly the losses were widespread.  At the same time, SPY dropped 2.91%, DIA fell 2.60%, and QQQ dropped 2.98%. VXX spiked a massive 39.22% to close at 87.26 (the highest level it has seen since October 2023).  VXX (and the underlying VIX) had the largest intraday jump ever during the session.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted all the way down to the bottom of its oversold territory at 2.11.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields recovered to close down to 3.777% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.41% to close at $73.81 per barrel.  So, Monday was a brutal day as US markets followed the rest of the world by opening with a huge gap lower.  However, the whiplash was real with a strong (multi-percent) rally off the open and then whipsaw lower in the afternoon hammered the late dip buyers that chased.  In short, there was pain to go around for everybody on Monday with the biggest dose reserved for Bulls that held long going into the weekend.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included July S&P Global Services PMI, which came in a bit low at 55.0 (compared to a forecast of 56.0 but down just a bit from June’s 55.3 reading).  At the same time, July S&P Global Composite PMI was 54.3 (versus a forecast of 55.0 and down just a bit from June’s 54.8 value).  Later, July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was much stronger than expected at 51.1 (compared to a forecast to 46.4 and a June 46.1 number).  At the same time, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was up to 51.4 (exactly on the 51.4 forecast and well up from June’s 48.8 value).   Meanwhile, July ISM Non-Mfg. Prices Index was also hotter than anticipated at 57.0 (versus a 56.0 forecast and a June 56.3 number).

In Fed speak news, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told the NY Times said he sees the risk of waiting too long to cut rates.  Goolsbee said, “You only want to be that restrictive if you think there’s fear of overheating.” He continued, “These data, to me, do not look like overheating … as you see jobs numbers come in weaker than expected but not looking yet like recession, I do think you want to be forward-looking at where the economy is headed for (in) making the decisions.”  Goolsbee wanted to be clear that he did not care about the stock market and his remarks were based solely on last week’s data.  He said, “The law doesn’t say anything about the stock market; it’s about the employment and it’s about price stability.”  These remarks came after many analysts and talking heads began calling for “emergency rate cuts” prior to the next scheduled (September 18) FOMC meeting.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, BMRN, BCC, BWXT, CBT, CRGY, CSX, FANG, EHC, KMPR, PLTR, PRIM, O, and STRL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AHR, FG, HUN, JELD, OKE, SUM, VSTO, WMB, and YUMC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FNF and SPG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AAN, CAR, and SPR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Monday, in search of some bad headline relief, INTC announced it is in the process of getting $383 million of ASML’s newest technology “High NA” EUV tools.  At the same time, IQVIA Data published research showing that LLY’s Zepbound has gained ground on NVO’s Wegovy in the lucrative GLP-1 weight-loss drug market.  The report said that LLY’s drug now has about 40% of the market compared to 60% for NVO’s drug.  (Some analysts see this market reaching $150 billion annually in the US by the early 2030s.)  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that private candy giant Mars is considering acquiring K in order to pickup the Rice Krsipy Treat, Pringles Chips, and Pop-Tart brands.  (K surged almost 20% before closing up 16.23% on the news.) At the same time, QMCO announced it will buy Cogentrix Energy from CG for roughly $3 billion.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the NHTSA said it is seeking information on a fatal TSLA Cybertruck crash in TX.  This could be part of the ongoing “Full Self Driving” investigation or an unrelated issue.  Later, GOOGL lost the federal antitrust case brought by the Dept. of Justice, 19 states, and the District of Columbia. The ruling found GOOGL had illegally acted to maintain its search engine monopoly by paying AAPL and others to make GOOGL the default search engine in browsers.  GOOGL will undoubtedly appeal.  After the close, MS announced it had received SEC requests for information about its cash balance sweep program where balances are sent to MS affiliate banks.  Separately, MS said it had reached a conditional settlement to resolve a 2017 lawsuit related to the IPO of OW Bunker, which MS had underwrote.

Also after the close, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed against CRWD on behalf of air travelers who had flights delayed or canceled following the recent global IT catastrophe stemming from a CRWD update release.  At the same time, NVS and VTRS were both hit with a lawsuit from the estate of a woman whose tissue samples (cells) were taken in the 1950s and continue to be used in research today.  (A similar lawsuit was filed by the estate against TMO and that case was settled out of court for an undisclosed sum.)  Meanwhile, GSK won the latest trial (in IL) over the claims that its discontinued heartburn drug Zantac caused cancer.  (This is but one of more than 70k cases that are pending on this issue, most of them located in DE.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with some notable major rebounds.  Japan (+10.23%), Taiwan (+3.38%), South Korea (+3.30%), and Malaysia (+2.47%) were the notable major moves higher.  Meanwhile, Singapore (-1.39%) was the rebound laggard.  In Europe, only five of the 15 bourses are in the red at midday but the rebounds are not as strong as Asia either.  The CAC (-0.29%), DAX (+0.01%) and FSTE (+0.04%) lead the region, as always, on sheer volume.  However, Greece (+1.72%) is the largest gainer in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m.) Futures are pointing toward a gap higher, but nowhere near as big a move as Monday’s gap down.  The DIA implies a +0.67% open, the SPY is implying a +0.89% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are also rebounding strongly to 3.859% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter of a percent to $73.11 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the June Exports, the June Imports, and the June Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FOX, GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, ALIT, ATI, GBTG, AU, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLMN, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, CEG, DK, DUK, EPC, ENR, EXPD, FIS, FOXA, GFS, GPRE, GXO, HSIC, H, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, KVUE. KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, VYX, NVT, OGN, OC, MD, SRE, SWX, STWD, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, TRMB, UBER, UWMC, VVX, VMC, WLK, KLG, YUM, and ZTS.  The, after the close, AGL, ABNB, AFG, AMGN, ARKO, ASH, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVA, DVN, ENLC, PLUS, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, IAC, ILMN, CART, IFF, LUMN, MASI, MOS, MRC, PR, RIVN, SVC, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, SMCI, TOST, TSE, TRIP, VFC, and WYNN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and June Consumer Credit are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, ZBH, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, AHCO, AU, ARMK, AVNT, BAX, BRKR, CELH, CEG, DK, DUK, GFS, KVUE, KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, TDG, UBER, WLK, and ZTS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, EPC, ENR, FIS, HSIC, H, INGR, J, NVT, OC, MD, STWD, TPX, and YUM missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, GXO and IDXX beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GOLF, ADNT, ATKR, BLMN, GPRE, VYX, and BLD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In Fed Rate Cut Expectation news, on Friday, the Fed Fund Futures market has now moved even further than Friday.  After the close Friday, 69.0% expected a half percent rate cut and 31.0% expected a quarter point cut at the September meeting.  However, after Monday’s market bloodbath, only 17.0% expect a quarter-point cut while 83.0% now expect a half-percent cut in September.  There are absolutely no bets that rates will remain the same or increase at the next meeting.  After the November meeting, 9.4% of trades anticipate a three-quarters of a percent cut (down to a 4.5-4.75% rate), while 53.6% now expect a full percentage cut by then and 37.0% expect to have had 1.25% in cuts following the November 7 meeting.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that mortgage financing firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are set to impose stricter rules on commercial; property lenders and brokers.  The new rules will require lenders to independently verify borrower’s financial information for borrowers of multi-family properties.  In addition, tougher cash on hand and income source requirements will apply.  Elsewhere, a Fed survey released Monday reported that US banks saw the best commercial and industrial loan demand in Q2 that had been seen in two years.  This came as the percentage of banks reporting tighter C&I loan standards fell to the lowest level in two years.  (In other words, banks were not tightening requirements and loan demand was up.)  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that unplanned outages at both SCHW and Fidelity made the morning gap worse as nearly 20k traders were unable to access their accounts until the trading day was already underway Monday.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are making a move toward a tepid rebound early. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. (Not like Monday’s gap down, but still a decent gap up nonetheless.) However, from there we have seen indecision as SPY and QQQ have printed black-body candles with large wicks and DIA has printed a long-legged, white-body Spinning Top for the early session. The short-term trend remains clearly bearish as is the mid-term trend. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. (For example, look at a Monthly chart. There is no way to call SPY, DIA, or QQQ bearish based on those monthly charts.) In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now well over-stretched to to downside from their T-line (8ema) and are in need of relief. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is at the bottom of its oversold range. So, the market is in need of a pause or relief bounce at the very minimum. (Just remember, the market can stay oversold longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with NVDA (+2.69%) leading the rebound both in terms of gain and dollar-volume traded. The bottom line is that markets are tentative and undecided…and therefore volatile…at the moment. The prudent approach is to either be very fast or very cautious in the trades you take. The Bears have momentum, but have used up a lot of their energy. It would not take too much to panic them in a short squeeze. However, it would also not take much selling to scare off those dip buyers trying to do the squeeze. Caution is the word of the day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was another big day for the Bears as INTC’s terrible earnings after the bell on Thursday and worst than expected July Payroll data led to another large gap down.  SPY gapped down 1.37%, DIA gapped down 0.83%, and QQQ gapped down 1.98%.  From there, all three major index ETFs followed through to the downside.  QQQ made it to the lows of the day by 10:15 a.m. but SPY and DIA did not reach their lows until 11:30 a.m.  Once they reached the lows, all three put in a series of volatile waves that were modestly bullish side of sideways.  This action gave us large gap-down, black body, Spinning Top candles with in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  QQQ had evenly-split wicks (above/below) but SPY’s wicks lean mostly to the bottom and the DIA wicks were almost exclusively on the bottom of the candle.  (So much so that DIA was much like a very large Black Hammer candle.)  This all happened on heavier-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology and Energy (both -2.95%) and Consumer Cyclical (-2.94%) leading very broad-based large losses among the sectors.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.39%) was the only green sector that was 0.65% stronger than the next strongest group on the day.  At the same time, SPY dropped 1.83%, DIA fell 1.47%, and QQQ dropped 2.38%. VXX spiked a massive 23.88% to close at 62.57.  Meanwhile, T2122 plummeted down into the top end of its oversold territory at 18.20.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields plummeted down to close at 3.799% and Oil (WTI) dropped 3.01% to close at $74.01 per barrel.  So, Friday was a day when bad news was seen as bad news. The massive bad news out of INTC on Thursday night, coupled with weak July job growth data led traders to run for the exits.  However, by late morning the sellers were done for the week and dip-buyers did a little nibbling for the rest of the day.

For the week, SPY logged its third consecutive down candle losing 2.12%.  Meanwhile, DIA lost 2.18% on the week on its first down week since June.  At the same time, QQQ printed its fourth consecutive weekly loss by falling 3.07%. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included July Avg. Hourly Earnings (Year-on-Year), which showed a decline in rate of increase at +3.6% (compared to a +3.7% forecast and a +3.8% June reading).  On the Month-on-Month side, July Avg. Hourly Earnings also showed a slowing increase of +0.2% (versus the +0.3% forecast and June value).  At the same time, July Nonfarm Payrolls showed a much lower increase than predicted at +114k (compared to a +176k forecast and June’s +179k number).  On the private side, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls also showed a much smaller increase than expected at +97k (versus a +148k forecast and June’s +136k reading).  Meanwhile, the July Participation Rate increased to 62.7% (compared to a forecast and June value of 62.6%).  This all resulted in a July Unemployment Rate that jumped to 4.3% (versus the forecast and June reading of 4.1%).  Later, June Factory Orders fell significantly to -3.3% (compares to a -2.7% forecast and May’s -0.5%). 

In Fed speak news, Richmond Fed President Barkin told the NY Times Friday that the July Payrolls report showing a significant slowdown in job gains was “reasonable.”  However, he seemed to dismiss talk of recession and calls for more aggressive rate cuts.  Barkin said, “More significant reductions typically would be associated with an economy that feels like it’s deteriorating rapidly. And again, 114,000 jobs, while not as good as we’ve been running, on a long-term basis, is a reasonable number.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed should move in a “steady” fashion.  He said, “We never want to overreact to any one month’s numbers.”  Goolsbee continued, saying, “Our absolute goal now is we want to settle at something like full employment, not blow through normal and deteriorate.”

After the close, AMC missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Friday, the China Passenger Car Assn. reported that TSLA sales rose 15.3% year-over-year in July. (This sounds good, but their Chinese competitors saw sales growth of 30% and China’s overall EV sales grew 31% year-on-year for the month.)  Later, Reuters reported that DNB is exploring a potential sale, including a takeover by its largest shareholder CNNE.  DNB is reportedly looking for $9 billion to include debt assumption.  Meanwhile, CVX announced plans to move its headquarters from CA to TX, citing an “oil adversarial” government in CA. 

At the same time, AI startup Character.ai announced that it signed a non-exclusive deal with GOOGL for the its search engine to use the Character.ai large language model. Separately, two of the startup’s founders (both former GOOGL employees) will return to working for GOOGL.  On Saturday, CNBC reported that after unloading stocks recently (including half of its AAPL and more of its BAC), BRKB has raised a record $277 billion in cash.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA upgraded and expanded its investigations into almost 1 million STLA Dodge SUVs over faulty door locks and window controls that caused fires including at least one death.  Later, the FDA reported that all dosages of LLY’s weight-loss and diabetes drugs are no longer in shortage and are available nationwide.  At the same time, Reuters reported that JPM is considering filing suit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for its regulation of Zelle, a peer-to-peer payment network that the seven largest banks jointly own.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board again with some massive losses in chip-making countries in follow-through from INTC’s dismal performance last week and Japan raising rates for the first time 2008 (or more directly, the upward move of the Yen).  Japan (-12.40%), South Korea (-8.77%), and Taiwan (-8.35%) were by far the biggest loses, but a couple more exchanges were down well over 4% and none of the region’s exchanges lost less than 1.5%.  In Europe, we see a similar, but not as dismal, picture taking shape at midday.  The CAC (-1.91%), DAX (-2.53%), and FTSE (-2.33%) lead the region lower even while small exchanges like Athens (-5.78%) are out front in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to our markets following the rest of the world in general (unwarranted) panic.  The DIA implies a -2.04% open, the SPY is implying a -3.04% open, and the QQQ implies a -4.47% open in what is sure to be another tech bloodbath day at least to start.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are dropping again to 3.724% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.88% to $72.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday include July S&P Global Services PMI and July S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and July ISM Non-Mfg. Prices Index (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Daly (5 p.m.).  The major earnings reports before the open include AMR, BRKB, CG, KOS, SOHU, SAH, THS, and TSN.  Then, after the close, AAN, ACM, AHR, CAR, BRBR, BMRN, BCC, BWXT, CBT, CRGY, CSX, FANG, EHC, FG, FNF, HUN, ITUB, JELD, KMPR, OKE, PLTR, O, SPG, SPR, STRL, SUM, VSTO, WMB, and YUMC report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Exports, June Imports, June Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and June Consumer Credit are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from FOX, GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, ALIT, ATI, GBTG, AU, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BAX, BLMN, BR, BRKR, BLDR, CAT, CLVT, CEG, DK, DUK, EPC, ENR, EXPD, FIS, FOXA, GFS, GPRE, GXO, HSIC, H, IDXX, INGR, J, JLL, KVUE. KNF, LCII, MPC, TAP, MPLX, VYX, NVT, OGN, OC, MD, SRE, SWX, STWD, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, TRMB, UBER, UWMC, VVX, VMC, WLK, KLG, YUM, ZTS, AGL, ABNB, AFG, AMGN, ARKO, ASH, AIZ, CRC, CPNG, DVA, DVN, ENLC, PLUS, FTNT, GMED, GO, HY, IAC, ILMN, CART, IFF, LUMN, MASI, MOS, MRC, PR, RIVN, SVC, SKY, STE, SNEX, LRN, SU, RUN, SMCI, TOST, TSE, TRIP, VFC, and WYNN.  Then Wednesday, ADV, BCO, BAM, CRL, CCO, SID, CNDT, CRH, CVS, DBD, DDL, EMR, ENOV, GEO, GLP, GPN, GFF, HLT, HMC, IEP, KMT, LPX, LYFT, NEUE, NYT, NI, NOMD, NVO, DNOW, ODP, OGE, OSCR, PLTK, RCM, RL, REYN, ROK, RXO, SHOP, SONY, SUN, TGNA, PRKS, VSTS, VSH, DIS, ZBH, AE, ALTG, DOX, APP, ATO, BHF, CACI, CENT, CENTA, CF, CHRD, CPA, CPAY, CPAY, CAPL, CW, EFXT, ET, ENS, NVST, EQIX, FWRD, HG, HI, HUBS, ICUI, JXN, LNW, MTW, MFC, MRO, MATV, MMS, MCK, MKSI, MODV, MNST, NTR, OXY, PRI, HOOD, RGLD, SBGI, SM, STN, TALO, MODG, UGI, VSAT, WBD, WTS, WES, ZG, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from WMS, COLD, AVAH, AVT, AZUL, FUN, CQP, LNG, COMM, DDOG, ELAN, LLY, EDR, EPAM, FWONK, ULCC, GTN, HBI, HGV, IHRT, KELYA, KOP, LAMR, LSXMK, LSXMA, MLM, MUR, NXST, NRG, PZZA, PH, PENN, ACDC, RPRX, QSR, SBH, SEE, SN, SPB, TKO, UAA, UA, USFD, VTNR, VTRS, VST, WMG, ATSG, AKAM, AMN, BTG, CIB, CPRI, CENX, BAP, DBX, DXC, SSP, EVH, EXPE, G, GILD, IAG, NWSA, NGL, PAAS, PARAA, PARA, PBA, PBI, RXT, REZI, SOLV, TTWO, TTD, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, CLMT, ROAD, ERJ, EVRG, and NFE report.

So far this morning, AMR, BRKB, THS, and TSN all reported beats on both revenue and earnings. Meanwhile, SAH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, KOS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In Fed Rate Cut Expectation news, on Friday, following the July Payrolls and June Factory Orders data, there was a market move in the probabilities of a Fed rate cut in September.  In addition, the Fed Fund Futures bets are now expecting a larger cut.  One week prior, 88.2% of Fed Funds Rate trades implied a quarter point cut in September, 11.5% were counting on a half percent cut, and a tiny fraction felt rates would remain where they are now.  After Friday, 69.0% now expect a half percent rate cut and 31.0% expect a quarter point cut at the September meeting.  For their part, major banks also changed their forecasts with BAC, BCS, C, GS, and JPM. All are now calling for a half percent cut in September, with C telling its clients they now expect half percent cuts in both September and November. Back to the Fedwatch tool look into the outlook of Fed Funds traders and looking out to the November meeting, the betting is evenly split between expecting a three-quarters percent reduction by that meeting and a full percent cut.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted 22 basis points to 6.4%.  That was the mortgage’s lowest level since April of 2023.  Elsewhere, CMCSA announced Friday that viewership for the 2024 Olympics is up and has blown past the 2021 Tokyo Games.  CMCSA’s NBC Sports announced the five-day average viewership was 34 million viewers, up a whopping 79% from 2021.  (However, it is worth noting that Tokyo had the lowest-rated summer Olympics viewership of modern games, in part due to pandemic issues.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bears have opened up the over-reaction elevator shaft so far in the premarket. If the market closed where it sits now, it would be the biggest 3-day loss since the lows of the Trump side of the pandemic. All three major index ETFs showed huge gaps down to start the premarket. After that gap, all three have followed through with black-bodied candles that are mostly (or all) body. We are firmly in correction territory here. The short-term trend is now clearly bearish as is the mid-term. However, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts are not yet bearish. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now well over-stretched to to downside from their T-line (8ema) and are in need of relief. At the same time, the T2122 indicator closed just into the oversold territory, but unless there is a big rebound it will end closer to the bottom of its range. So, the Bears have used up all their slack and the market is in need of a bounce or pause. However, remember the market can remain oversold or overbought longer than any of us can remain solvent predicting turns too early. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are hugely bearish with the market leader NVDA (-12.69%) absolutely getting destroyed and having traded $2.1 billion worth of stock so far this morning. Buckle up, it’s going to be a massive Bearish and perhaps volatile day. This is where we find out who the weak hands are and just how much guts the “dip buys” have.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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