NOTE:  This will be the last daily blog for the foreseeable future

The Bears roared again Thursday at more indecision around the Trump tariffs (more temporary waivers on “some” Mexican products were announced) roiled markets.  SPY gapped down 1.30%, DIA gapped down 1.01%, and QQQ gapped down 1.66%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs rallied for 90 minutes, recovering about half of the gap.  However, by 11:30 a.m. the Bulls had left the building and the Bears drove all three sharply lower until 1 p.m. when all three started chopping sideways with a modest bearish trend the rest of the day.  This gave us gap-down, black-body candles in all three.  SPY gave us a long-wick, black Spinning Top, DIA gave us a long-legged, black Doji, and QQQ gave us large, black-body candle with large (mostly upper) wicks.  All three obviously remain below their T-line (8ema) and did not get close to making a retest from below.  QQQ also crossed down through its 200sma.  This all happened on slightly-above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as just-below-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red as Technology (-3.07%) and Utilities (-2.81%) were well out front leading the pack lower.  On the other side, Communication Services (+1.18%) was BY FAR the strongest and only green sector. At the same time, SPY lost 1.78%, DIA lost 1.06%, and QQQ lost 2.75%. In terms of volatility, the VXX spiked 10.90% to close at 53.73.  Meanwhile, T2122 dropped back into the lower half of its oversold range, closing at 8.21.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields climbed to 4.292% (which was actually significantly lower that early in the day) and Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat, closing at $66.26 per barrel.  

So, Thursday was a case of fatigue over Trump’s inconsistent, bullying way of using trade wars to get his way.  The on-off-on-off policy over tariffs against Canada and Mexico as well as uneven application based on political lobbying power has simply worn out the market.  QQQ closed near correction territory, down 9.68% from its all-time high (printed just 11 trading days ago).  Meanwhile, SPY is down 6.59% and DIA is off 5.53% from their recent highs. 

The major economic news on Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came lower than expected at 221k (compared to a 234k forecast and the prior week’s 242k reading).  For ongoing claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 1,897k (versus the 1,880k forecast but well up from the prior week 1,855k value).  At the same time, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity was down but better than anticipated at +1.5% (compared to the +1.2% forecast but down from Q3’s +2.2% number). On the price side, Q4 Unit Labor Costs were up but also better than predicted at +2.2% (versus a +3.0% forecast but well up from Q3’s +0.8% reading).  At the same time, the Jan. Trade Balance was slightly worse than anticipated at -$131.40 (versus a -$128.40 billion forecast and December’s -$98.1 billion value).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet came in $9 billion lower than the previous week at $6.757 trillion.)

In Fed news, on Thursday, Philly Fed President Harker said that the economy is in good shape now, but warning signs are starting to show.  Harker said, “Unemployment is still low, still getting growth, but there are threats to this. We’re starting to see that confidence is starting to wane on both the consumer and business fronts.” Related to inflation, Harker said, “I’m worried that right now that (2024 declines) is at risk, that the decline is at risk.”  On the topic of what the Fed should do with interest rates, he went on to say “I’m an avowed pragmatist when it comes to policy … you don’t go very fast in either direction.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller said he is unlikely to support a rate cut in March.  Waller told the Wall Street Journal, “I want to see what happens with the February inflation data. … Want to see a little bit more with what happens with tariff policies.”  However, he went on to say that it may be appropriate to cut as some future FOMC meeting.

After the close, AVGO and GAP reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line. Meanwhile, COO and LOMA missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings. On the other side, COST and HPE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only Thailand (+1.05%) and India (+0.03%) managing to stay green.  Meanwhile, Japan (-2.17%) and Australia (-1.81%) were way out front leading the 10 red exchanges.  In Europe we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with just three of 14 bourses in the green.  The CAC (-1.15%), DAX (-1.83%), and FTSE (-0.50%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are down to 4.255% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.34% to $67.25 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, and the Feb. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), Fed. Monetary Policy Report (11 a.m.), and Jan. Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Bowman (10:15 a.m.), Williams (11:45 a.m.), and Fed Chair Powell (12:30 p.m.).  Trump is also expected to announce the elimination of the Dept. of Education at 3:30 p.m. according to the Wall Street Journal.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF.  There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, ADV, AQN, and GCO have all reported MISSES on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, the market are basically undecided ahead of data.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket a bit higher, ran up and then reversed to retreat.  All three now have printed black candles with upper wicks and are sitting at the bottom of their early session candle, just above the Thursday close.  All three are still well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend remains bearish.  At the same time, the mid-term trend remains a bearish, choppy mess.  Meanwhile, the long-term trend remains bullish, but is being severely tested.  In terms of extension, SPY and especially QQQ are now over-stretched to the downside but DIA remains within its normal range of the T-line.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back down in the lower half of its mid-range.  So, once again, the Bulls clearly have a more rope to work with today, but the Bears still have the momentum behind them.  In terms of the Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in the red in the premarket.  TSLA (-1.92%) is well out in front leading the pack lower while NVDA (+0.66%) is by far the strongest big dog.  As far as liquidity goes, TSLA leads NVDA slightly which itself has traded nine times as much dollar-volume as the next closest ticker in the premarket.  (However, we should again note it is a very light premarket volume overall ahead of data.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a modest rebound Wednesday.  SPY opened down 0.04%, DIA opened down 0.10%, and QQQ opened up 0.09%.  From there, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways until 11 a.m.  From there, all three sold off for an hour, then rallied until 3:15 p.m. before pulling back slightly the last 45 minutes.  The action gave us Bullish Engulfing candles with in the SPY and DIA as well as a white-bodied candle with more wick than body (but too large a body to be a Spinning Top).  All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and did not get close to making a retest from below.  This all happened on above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in the DIA.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green as Basic Materials (+3.42%) was well out front (by 1.30%) leading the gainers higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.53%) and Utilities (-0.20%) lagged behind and were the only sectors in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.07%, DIA gained 1.15%, and QQQ gained 1.30%.  In terms of volatility, VXX fell 4.23% to close at 48.45.  Meanwhile, T2122 popped up out of its oversold territory to the bottom of its mid-range to 24.30. On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields climbed to 4.278% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 2.75% to close at $66.38 per barrel.

So, Wednesday was a day when it seemed the Administration manipulated (or at the very least drove) markets a bit.  The market news early was from Commerce Sec. Lutnick who told Bloomberg that all the recent bad economic data was “Biden Data.”  He also promised a White House announcement of a deal on end tariffs by the afternoon. That seemed to lead to the mid-day rally.  There were also other press leaks about Trump being open to tariff exemptions for the Auto industry (and perhaps others).  However, after the close, Trump told the press Canada’s effort to appease him was “not good enough,” but he was open to some exemptions.  He went on to announced a one-month exemption for the big three automakers.

The major economic news on Wednesday included Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in far below expectations at +77k (compared to a +141k forecast and dramatically lower than January’s +186k number).  Later, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, was above expectation at 51.0 (versus a 49.7 forecast, but down from January’s 52.9 reading).  For the combined number, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI was above expectation at 51.6 (compared to a 50.4 forecast but down from January’s 52.7 value).  Later, Jan. Factory Orders, were up as anticipated to +1.7% (in-line with the +1.7% forecast and better than December’s -0.6% reading).  At the same time, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was up to 53.9 (compared to January’s 52.3 value).  For the headline, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was also up to 53.5 (versus a 52.5 forecast and the 52.8 number in January).  In terms of cost, ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index was up sharply to 62.6 (compared to a 60.0 forecast and the 60.4 January reading).  Later, EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a large unexpected build of 3.614 million barrels (versus a +0.600-million-barrel forecast and the prior week drawdown of 2.332 million barrels). 

In Fed news, on Wednesday, the Fed Beige Book reported that eight of the 12 Fed districts saw flat or slightly negative growth in February.  The report mentioned Trump’s tariffs 50 times as essentially every district cited them as reasons for uncertainty among the businesses in their area.  Some quotes from the report were Kansas City reporting “the outlook among community service organizations was reportedly much less favorable.”  Meanwhile, a St. Louis district food-service distributor said “consumers were buying less, buying less often, and trading down.”  In the Boston region, restaurant sales were down, but some contacts reported this may be due to “dry January.”  Several districts reported that inflation worries continue with an uptick in the rate of price increases among district businesses.  However, several districts also said wage increase pressures were easing.

After the close, MRVL, MDB, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, BBAR beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Hong Kong (+3.29%) was by far the biggest gainer followed by Shenzhen (+1.77%).  On the downside, Thailand (-1.44%) was far-and-away the biggest loser.  In Europe, bourses are mixed but lean toward the red side.  The CAC (-0.44%), DAX (+0.50%), and FTSE (-0.86%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:20 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the morning.  DIA implies a -0.85% open, the SPY is implying a -1.07% open, and QQQQ implies a -1.32% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields have spiked back up to 4.317% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent to $66.80 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, and Jan. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Harker (8:45 a.m.) and Governor Waller (3:30 p.m.).  Fed member Bostic also speaks at 7 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, and VG.  Then after the close, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, BTSG and JD reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BJ, BURL, DDL, M, and VG missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, CNQ beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, GMS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market looks bearish in the early premarket.  All three major index ETFs gapped lower to open the early session and have printed black-body candles since that point.  (It is worth noting that SPY and DIA have printed more indecisive, black Spinning Top, Bear Harami type candles so far in the premarket.) All three are well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess resolving bearishly.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish, but is being tested.  In terms of extension, SPY and QQQ are not over-stretched but are pushing that level of being oversold in the early session.  DIA remains within its normal range of the T-line.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back out of its oversold territory (barely) and sits in the lower end of its mid-range. So, the Bulls clearly have a more rope to work with today, but the Bears still have the momentum behind them.  In terms of the Big Dogs, all 10 are in the red in the premarket.  NVDA (-2.59%) and TSLA (-2.31%) are well out front leading the pack lower while AAPL (-0.48%) is holding up best.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads TSLA by 35% which itself has traded six times as much dollar-volume as the next closest ticker in the premarket.  (However, we should note it is a very light premarket volume overall.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday opened with gaps lower across all the major index ETFs.  SPY gapped down 0.74%, DIA gapped down 0.60%, and QQQ gapped down 0.63%. From there, all three major averages followed through to the downside with SPY and QQQ selling off sharply until 10:30 a.m.  DIA sold off more slowly but the downside continued until 11:30 a.m. Once they reached those points, all three began a slower rally that lasted until 3:25 p.m. However, then all three sold off sharply again the rest of the day. This action gave us gap-down, indecisive candles across the major index ETFs.  SPY printed a black-bodied, long-legged Spinning Top, QQQ printed a white-bodied, long-legged Spinning Top, and DIA printed a larger-body, black Spinning Top candle.  This happened on heavier-than-average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red as Financial Services (-2.89%) led the others lower by mor (out front by more than one percent).  On the other side, the Technology (+0.03%) sector was the only one to hold onto the green.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.18%, DIA lost 1.47%, and QQQ lost 0.32%.  Meanwhile, VXX rose another 2.64% to close at 50.59 and T2122 dropped all the way back up to bottom of its oversold territory at 1.83. On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields climbed to 4.225% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.12% to close at $68.29 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was another rough day for markets as Trump abandoned a democracy (whose security the US had guaranteed) in favor of pleasing his autocrat friend Putin whom Trump has been preemptively and unilaterally making concessions before negotiations and Trump’s trade war tariffs on close allies also took effect.

The major economic news on Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in higher than expected at 52.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.6 and January’s 51.2 value).  Later, January Construction Spending was down notably to -0.2% (versus a -0.1% forecast but well down from December’s +0.5% reading).  At the same time, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI was lower than anticipated at 50.3 (compared to a 50.6 forecast and January’s 50.9 number).  On the jobs side, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment was down sharply to 47.6 (versus January’s 50.3 value).  On the cost side, the Feb. ISM Mfg. Price Index what SHARPLY higher at 62.4 (compared to a forecast of 56.2 and the January 54.9 reading). 

In response, Canada announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on US goods, China declared 15% tariffs on US grain and lumber, and Mexico said it will announce its own retaliatory tariff package against the US next weekend.)  Trump also threatened another 25% of tariffs on Canada and insulted the Canadian PM when the Canadian retaliatory tariffs were announced.)   Later in the day, the market reversal may well have been due to Commerce Sec. Lutnick saying that “Trump will probably announce a tariff deal with Canada and Mexico as soon as Wednesday.”  Still, Trump wanted his headlines and needed unannounced items so he could make a news splash at his Congressional (GOP) “non State of the Union” speech last night.

The major economic news on Tuesday was limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, which came in with a larger than expected inventory drawdown of 1.455 million barrels (compared to a forecasted -0.300 million barrels and the prior week’s 0.640-million-barrel draw).

In Fed news, on NY Fed President Williams spoke to a Bloomberg event.  Williams indicated he expects the Trump tariffs to cause inflation, saying “My view is, based on what we know today … I do factor in some effects from tariffs now on inflation, on prices, because I think we will see some of those effects later this year.”  However, he urged caution in jumping to conclusions about how much inflation or how fast. Williams said, “there’s a lot of uncertainty: We don’t know how long the tariffs will apply. We don’t know what other countries may do in response to this.”  He went on to say that some industries will see the inflation impacts almost immediately, while others may not feel the effect for months.  Related to future fed rate cuts, Williams said “it’s really hard to know” if there will be any further cuts this year due to all the uncertainty.  However, he did say, “I think the current place for policy is good. I don’t see any need to change it right away.”

After the close, CRWD, CTOS, EC, FLUT, and INGM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ROST missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Only Australian (-0.70%) was in the red while Hong Kong (+2.84%) and Thailand (+2.49%) were far out front leading the 11 gaining exchanges.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The DAX (+3.19%) spiked and led Europe higher as the coalition parties seeking to form the new German government agreed on a $530 billion infrastructure fund as well as overhaul of German borrowing rules.  (This was a direct response to Trump abandoning Ukraine and aligning himself with Putin.)  The CAC (+2.06%) and lagging FTSE (+0.32%) filled out the leaders taking Europe higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures point to modestly higher open.  The DIA implies a +0.27% open, SPY is implying at +0.36% open, and QQQ implies a +0.54% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are back up to 4.236% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.74% to $67.07 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday, we get Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan. Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ANF, BF.B, CPB, FL, REVG, and THO. Then after the close, BBAR, MRVL, MDB, SOBO, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Jan. Trade Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.  Finally, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, VG, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA.  Finally, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, ANF and REVG have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CPB and FL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, THO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, the market looks indecisive after a modest gap higher to start the premarket.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but have printed large-wick, black-bodied Spinning Top candles since that point indicating indecision that leans bearish.  All three are well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess resolving bearishly.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish, but tested.  In terms of extension, with the premarket moves higher, none of the three are too far stretched below their T-line (although QQQ is still close to that mark).  However, the T2122 indicator is now buried deep at the bottom of its oversold territory.  So, the Bulls clearly have a little more slack to work with today, but the Bears have the momentum behind them.  In terms of the Big Dogs, all 10 are in the green in the premarket.  TSLA (+1.60%) and NVDA (+1.57%) are well out front leading the pack higher while NFLX (+0.26%) and AAPL (+0.29%) lag. As far as liquidity goes, TSLA and NVDA are neck-and-neck and about 12 times ahead of the next closest ticker in terms of dollar-volume traded in the premarket.  (However, we should note it is a very light premarket volume overall.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, DIA gapped up 0.27%, and QQQ gapped up 0.61%.  However, this was a bit of a Bull trap as SPY and QQQ sold off sharply until just after 10 a.m, chopped sideways along the prior close, and then sold off sharply again at 12:45p.m. That selloff lasted an hour before chopping sideways until 2:45 p.m. when the last and strongest flush of the day took place.  Only a short covering rally the last 15 minutes kept us from going out on the lows.  For its part, after a gap higher, DIA began a modest, undulating selloff that lasted until 2:45 p.m. when a strong selloff took us to the lows over the course of an hour.  Again, only a short-covering rally the last 15 minutes kept us from going out on the lows.  All three major index ETFs printed large, Bearish Engulfing candles with SPY and QQQ retesting and failing their T-line (8ema) and DIA crossing back below its own T-line.  SPY and QQQ also both printed Oreo Cookie (Bear Stick Sandwich) candles. This all happened on just-above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red as Energy (-2.10%) and Technology (-2.86%) led the way lower.  On the other side, Communication Services (+0.56%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.20%) held up far better than the rest and were the only two sectors in the green.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.74%, DIA lost 1.43%, and QQQ lost 2.14%.  Meanwhile, VXX spiked 7.55% to close at 49.29 and T2122 dropped all the way back up to top edge of its oversold territory at 50.66.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields dropped to 4.165% and Oil (WTI) dropped 1.96% to close at $68.39 per barrel.  So, Monday was a rough day after the open.  Perhaps this was due to info on NVDA exports to Singapore being rerouted to China and the potential dire impact that theoretically could have on the market leader. (Three men were arrested in Singapore for rerouting NVDA shipments to China. In addition, 20% of NVDA profits in 2024 came from sales shipped to Singapore, while less than 2% of customers have locations in Singapore. Thus, raising the specter of massive sanction gaming that could possibly be stopped, killing NVDA sales.)  However, the strongest selloff of the day came when Trump crushed hopes that Canadian and Mexican sanctions would be avoided when he flat out stated they will take effect Tuesday, saying there is “no room for delay.”

The major economic news on Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in higher than expected at 52.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.6 and January’s 51.2 value).  Later, January Construction Spending was down notably to -0.2% (versus a -0.1% forecast but well down from December’s +0.5% reading).  At the same time, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI was lower than anticipated at 50.3 (compared to a 50.6 forecast and January’s 50.9 number).  On the jobs side, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment was down sharply to 47.6 (versus January’s 50.3 value).  On the cost side, the Feb. ISM Mfg. Price Index what SHARPLY higher at 62.4 (compared to a forecast of 56.2 and the January 54.9 reading). 

In Fed news, on Monday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that inflation is likely continuing to track toward the FOMC’s 2% target in the long-term.  However, there are big short-term inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.  Musalem said, “Near-term inflation expectations have risen substantially over the last few weeks, and that’s something I’m watching closely.”  He continued, “Businesses and households are clearly more sensitive to expectations of higher inflation. … That’s why the risks seem more skewed to the upside, but the baseline is for continued disinflation.” In terms of the strength of the economy, Musalem said, “The outlook for continued solid economic growth looks good, the labor market is healthy, and financial conditions are supportive. But recent data have been weaker than expected, especially consumer spending and housing market data, posing some downside risk to growth.”  He continued, “Recent anecdotal reports from business contacts are more mixed, and some measures indicate that business activity has slowed, suggesting increased caution at least among some firms.”  Musalem said he views the current Fed rate policy as “modestly restrictive” but stressed that the FOMC “needs to be patient” AND “More monetary policy work is needed to achieve price stability.”  Later, the Atlanta Fed released a report indicating the US economy will likely contract 2.8% in Q1. (That was nearly double the prior week’s -1.5% prediction from one week earlier.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Only Shenzhen (+0.28%) and Shanghai (+0.22%) remained in the green.  Meanwhile, Japan (-1.20%), Malaysia (-1.00%), and Thailand (-0.91%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.42%), DAX (-2.32%), and FTSE (-0.50%) are all strongly lower in early afternoon trade as Neville Trump sold out Ukraine (just as Czechoslovakia was sold out in 1938) going further to prove that US security guarantees are meaningless. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the day.  DIA implies a -0.25% open, the SPY is implying a -0.41% open, and QQQ implies a -0.42% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields fell to 4.134% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.35% to $67.44 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.). However, we do hear from Fed member Williams (2:20 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AZO, BBY, PSFE, SE, and TGT.  Then after the close, SQM, CRWD, CTOS, EC, FLUT, INGM, JWN, and ROST report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan. Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Jan. Trade Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.  Finally, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ANF, BF.B, CPB, FL, REVG, THO, BBAR, MRVL, MDB, SOBO, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS report.  On Thursday, we hear from BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, VG, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA.  Finally, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, BBY, ONON, and TGT have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, SE beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, AZO and PSFE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market looks to gap down at the open Tuesday.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but have reversed and printed strong black candles since then, now sitting not far from the early session lows.  All three are well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess resolving bearishly.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish, but tested.  In terms of extension, with the premarket moves lower, QQQ is not stretched below its T-line with SPY not too far behind.  However, DIA is still relatively close to its 8ema.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator now sits at the upper edge of its oversold territory.  So, both sides have room to work, but the Bulls have a little more slack while the Bears have the momentum.  In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red in the premarket.  TSLA (-3.33%) is well out front leading the losers while AAPL (+0.02%) is barely hanging onto green and is the only positive Bid Dog.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA (-2.30%) leads TSLA by 50% with the next closest ticker having traded one-seventh as much dollar-volume as TSLA (and one-nineth as much as NVDA).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service