China Protests Ease and Fed Talks Tough

Markets gapped down Monday with the SPY opening down 0.80%, DIA opening down 0.50%, and QQQ opening down 0.72%.  At that point, we saw a momentary rally (that managed to close the gap in the QQQ) before the bears stepped back in to sell us off steadily to new lows on the day by the time the first hour was over. That downtrend has stayed in place all day until a rally in the last 15 minutes.  On the daily chart, the QQQ and SPY both failed to hold their T-lines (8ema) while the DIA is just barely fell through that level and may retest tomorrow. This action gave us black candles with upper wicks and small lower wicks in all 3 major indices.  You could also argue that the SPY printed something like an Evening Star signal.

On the day, all ten sectors were in the red.  The Consumer Defensive sector (-0.34%) lagged while the Basic Materials sector (-2.34%) led the way lower.  At the same time, the SPY was down 1.58%, the DIA was down 1.46%, and the QQQ was down 1.47%.  The VXX gained 3.69% to 15.72 and T2122 has dropped out of overbought territory to 45.79.  10-year bond yields have climbed a bit to 3.683% and Oil (WTI) is back up 0.49% to $76.65 per barrel.  So, overall, Monday was a pullback day on very low volume that did not break the trend and is coming into a potential support area in the DIA and QQQ.

In economic news, Fed uber-hawk Bullard (St. Louis Fed President) told an interview that the Fed will likely need to keep its benchmark rate above 5% into 2024 in order to tame inflation.  This was in answer to a question (which he did not correct or narrow) that asked how long he expects the Fed Funds Rate to remain in the 5%-7% range that one of his slides showed in past presentations.  For reference, the current rate is 4%, a full percent below the bottom of his previously implied range.  Bullard did not answer when asked if he would support a 75-basis-point hike in December, instead saying he would leave the “exact tactics” of reaching a high enough level to Fed Chair Powell.  At the same time (but different venue), NY Fed President Williams (a moderate hawk) told a crown that he thinks there is a path for unemployment to go to 4.5% (it was 3.7% in October).  He also said he expects the Fed to keep raising rates and keep them there for all of 2023.  However, Williams said his baseline case is that (outside of an outside shock) the US economy will not tip into a recession…but that global risk is certainly out there.

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In stock news, Reuters reported Monday that TSLA is developing a revised version of its “Model 3” in an attempt to reduce production costs while also boosting the appeal of that 5-year-old sedan.  TBLA surged Monday, closing up 43.48% (on a range greater than 36% after the gap) after the company announced it had signed an exclusive 30-year advertising deal with Yahoo, generating approximately $1 billion/year in revenue and with Yahoo taking a 25% stake in the company.  Elsewhere, USFD named Dave Fitman as its new CEO.  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that sources tell them that MSFT is willing to offer more concessions to the EU in a bid to save its $69 billion purchase of ATVI.  In the late afternoon, ADBE Analytics announced they expect “Cyber Monday” online sales to have reached $11.6 billion, which is an 8.5% increase over 2021.  After the close, GOOGL and IHRT agreed to pay a modest $9.4 million fine to settle deceptive advertising charges from the FTC related to 29,000 false radio endorsements used to promote the GOOGL Pixel 4 smartphone on IHRT airwaves.

In miscellaneous news, the CFTC reported Monday that the market’s “net short” position on the US Dollar as of the 7 days ended November 22 reached its largest level ($1.82 billion) since July 2021.  This was a massive increase over the paltry $10.5 million net short position the week prior. In possibly related news, the Dollar fell sharply in the afternoon Monday after a huge morning spike (forming an Eiffel Tower pattern) that was the result of a flight to safety over China protest concerns.  Elsewhere, late in the day Monday, the Fed released remarks made by Vice Chair Brainard in which she said the War in Ukraine and global supply chain shocks (covid) could herald a shift to a more volatile inflation era…which would force central banks to tighten monetary policy, even more than currently, to guard against explosive inflation events.

So far this morning, BNS and BILI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ESLT and HIBB reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green as Chinese protests eased.  Hong Kong (+5.24%), Shenzhen (+2.40%), and Shanghai (+2.31%) led the region higher while only Malaysia (-0.64%) and Japan (-0.48%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar, but more muted situation taking shape at midday.  The FTSE (+0.71%), DAX (+0.19%), and CAC (+0.26%) are leading the region higher with only 3 very modest red exchanges in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have dropped again to 3.664% and Oil is up 2.4% to $79.11/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday is limited to the Conf. Board Consumer Confidence report (10 am) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 pm).  On the major earnings reports front, reports scheduled for the day include BNS, BILI, CG, ESLT, and SJR before the open.  Then, after the close, CRWD, HPE, INTU, NTAP, and WDAY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Nov. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Q3 GDP, Q3 GSP Price Index, Oct. Trade Goods Balance, Retail Inventories, Chicago PMI, Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, Oct. Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Beige Book, and Fed Chair Powell speaks.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. PCE Price Index, Oct. Personal Spending, Mfg. PMI, ISM Mfg. PMI, and a Fed speaker (Bowman) report.  Finally, on Friday, we get Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Unemployment Rate, and Nov. Participation Rate.

In earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from DOOO, DCI, HRL, BEKE, WOOF, RY, TITN, XPEV, FIVE, LZB, PSTG, PVH, CRM, SNOW, SPLK, SNPS, and VSCO.  On Thursday, BMO, BIG, CM, DBI, DG, KR, PDCO, TD, MRVL, ULTA, and VEEV report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from CRBL and GCO.

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As mentioned above, Chinese stocks are leading a global rally after Beijing gave a muted and conciliatory reply to the mass “Zero Covid” policy protests. China said it will bolster vaccinations among senior citizens and that may allow some localized and non-public easing of restrictions. So, today may be setting up to be another “Turnaround Tuesday.” However, remember the data dump this week is back-weighted. So, there is likely to be some more “waiting on the next shoe to drop” as traders pause until we see the big reports from Wednesday to Friday. The Dollar continues its recent weakness again this morning and that should help commodity prices. So, overall we have some cautiously bullish conditions trying to take hold.

In the short term, markets are still just seeing a normal pullback in the uptrend. All three major indices seem to be retesting their T-lines (8ema) in the premarket. So, there is no problem with extension, either in terms of that T-line or the T2122 indicator, which sits in the midrange. Be wary of any unscheduled Fed speakers, but it would not be surprising to see another blah day (at least on volumes) as markets wait on the Wednesday GDP print or Friday morning’s Payrolls data.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BIDU, MPC, X, KSS, CMCSA, and KHC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed Speakers As Holiday Sales Are Mulled

Friday was a dead day in markets as the SPY and DIA while QQQ gapped down half of a percent.  From there, the DIA had a half-hour rally before joining the other 2 major indices in grinding sideways in a very tight range into the early close at 1 pm.  This action gave us very low volume candles in all 3 major indices with small Spinning Top type candles in the SPY and QQQ along with a white-bodied candle in the DIA.  The QQQ and SPY were also Doji-Harami (inside day) candles.

On the day, seven of the ten sectors are in the green, with the Utilities sector (+0.70%) and Communications Services sector (+0.68%) leading the way higher while the Tech sector (-0.54%) lagging behind.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.02%, the DIA gained 0.46%, and the QQQ lost 0.66%.  The VXX gained 0.53% to 15.16 and T2122 stayed in the overbought territory at 89.85.  10-year bond yields have fallen again to 3.691% and Oil (WTI) dropped to $76.28 per barrel.  So, overall, Friday was a nothing burger day after the Technology gap down and 30 minutes of action. 

In economic news, on Friday the National Retail Federation said they expect holiday sales to rise between 6% and 8% in the November-December period.  Obviously, this is a gain, but less than the +13.5% in 2021 and +9.3% in 2020.  Meanwhile, ADBE Analytics reported record online sales ($9.2 billion) on Black Friday, up 2.3% from the same day last year.  This followed a reportedly strong day of online sales on Thursday ($5.29 billion, which was up 2.9% from 2021).  ADBE also reported a 78% increase in “Buy Now, Pay Later” purchases versus the week prior.  Elsewhere, CNBC reported research from ad-tracking company Captify which said that WMT overtook AMZN as the most searched online store on Black Friday.  The research said that TGT and KSS also beat our AMZN, which it said dropped to fourth in terms of online deal searches on that one day.

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In stock news, Reuters reported Friday that AAPL’s biggest supplier (Foxconn) may have to reduce iPhone output by another 30% at its main China factory due to worker unrest.  As of now, Reuters says it will be impossible for Foxconn to resume production at least for another week, even after offering a $1,400 bonus for workers who would return. At the same time, sources reported that it is very possible AMZN will reach a deal with the EU Antitrust investigators by year-end, allowing the company to avoid the threatened fine amounting to 10% of global turnover.  Meanwhile, the FDA declined to approve a lung cancer drug from SPPI and the company announced it will cut 75% of its R&D workforce by year-end.  On Saturday, TROW (a major shareholder of NWSA) said it has strong reservations to Rupert Murdoch’s plan to reunite NWSA and FOX and will likely fight the recombination.

In miscellaneous news, China’s Central Bank announced that in addition to buying bonds, it will offer $162 billion in discounted loans to real estate developers to prop up its struggling real estate sector.  In other China news, there are ongoing mass protests in Shanghai (where the Foxconn AAPL plant is located) where literally thousands of protesters have shut down public transport and caused building and car fires in that major city.  As of Sunday night, police had maintained a heavy presence but had not cracked down as the plan was to let the protest fizzle on its own and then resume public transport gradually on Monday.  Elsewhere, the South Korean government threatened to break up a nationwide strike by truck drivers (who are seeking better pay and conditions).  In the car industry, F recalled 634,000 cars worldwide over cracked fuel injectors.  In other car news, TSLA opened its “Full Self-Driving” beta to anyone in North America, despite the repeated crashes and fatalities of people using that feature.  Finally, on Sunday, China reported that the profits of its Industrial Manufacturers were down 13.4% year-to-date through October (slightly worse than the 13.2% fall through September).

So far this morning, PDD beat (handily) on both lines, including almost double the expected earnings. However, HTHT beat on revenue while missing on earnings. HTHT also lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only India (+0.27%) managed to stay green while Hong Kong (-1.57%), Taiwan (-1.50%), and South Korea (-1.21%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, exchanges are all in the red at midday.  The FTSE (-0.38%) lags, while the DAX (-1.01%) and CAC (-1.04%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the week.  The DIA implies a -0.53% open, the SPY is implying a -0.71% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.66% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down to 3.677% and Oil (WTI) is off 3.17% to $73.86/barrel on global demand fears.

The major economic news events scheduled for Monday are limited to two speakers from the Fed (Uber-hawk Bullard and slight-hawk Williams both speak at noon).  On the major earnings reports front, reports scheduled for the day include PDD and HTHT before the open.  Then, after the close, YY reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, Nov. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Q3 GDP, Q3 GSP Price Index, Oct. Trade Goods Balance, Retail Inventories, Chicago PMI, Oct. JOLTs Job Openings, Oct. Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Fed Beige Book, and Fed Chair Powell speaks.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Oct. PCE Price Index, Oct. Personal Spending, Mfg. PMI, ISM Mfg. PMI, and a Fed speaker (Bowman) report.  Finally, on Friday, we get Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Unemployment Rate, and Nov. Participation Rate.

In earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, BNS, BILI, CG, ESLT, SJR, CRWD, HPE, INTU, NTAP, and WDAY report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from DOOO, DCI, HRL, BEKE, WOOF, RY, TITN, XPEV, FIVE, LZB, PSTG, PVH, CRM, SNOW, SPLK, SNPS, and VSCO.  On Thursday, BMO, BIG, CM, DBI, DG, KR, PDCO, TD, MRVL, ULTA, and VEEV report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from CRBL and GCO.

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As we come back from a long holiday weekend, there is not much cheer in the market. Surprisingly, mass protests in China (some openly calling for President Xi to resign) have not yet been crushed, but that seems to be what analysts and the people there expect. Between that situation, a very minor holiday sales pop in Europe (the UK reported +0.90% in its first measure of holiday sales), and modest sales increases in the US on Black Friday, we are left with a somber mood to start the week. As you can see above, we also have a big data week ahead, led by November Payrolls data on Friday. So, there is a lot of reason for caution by traders at this point. The Dollar is also showing significant weakness again this morning. (News that should help support commodity prices at the margins.) And we also have a couple of hawkish Fed speakers at noon today.

In the short term, markets are just seeing a normal pullback in the uptrend. Only the QQQ appears to even be retesting its T-line (8ema) in the premarket as that index continues to work on a Bullish Pennant pattern. There is no problem with extension, even though the T2122 indicator sits midway into the overbought territory. The risk at this point seems to mainly be news-driven this week. Be careful and don’t be surprised if most of the move comes after Wednesday’s GDP print and Friday morning’s Payrolls data.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: STNG, QUOT, ARDX, TXG, EBAY, HUN, APP, PDD, AFRM, and VLDR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

A Lot of Data Today as DE Easily Beats

Markets gapped up just over 0.50% across all three major indices on Tuesday.  At that point, we saw a modest pullback and recovery over the first 45 minutes in the SPY and DIA (fading the gap and then returning to the open level). The QQQ had a much bigger pullback, but then started a rally that led the rest of the market higher the rest of the day. This QQQ rally really slowed down at 11 am but continued slowly. Meanwhile, the large-cap indices experienced a couple of multi-hour sideways grinds in a tight range before stepping up again to a new level just to grind sideways again until 3 pm.  At 3 pm, all 3 of the major indices took another step higher before again the QQQ led the rest higher into the close. With that said, the SPY and DIA also broke out above their Bull Pennant downtrend lines.  This action gave us Doji gap-up white candles (some may call it a Best Friend signal) across the SPY, SIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all ten sectors are in the green, with the Energy sector (+2.98%) leading the way higher and the Consumer Defensive sector (+0.49%) lagging behind.  At the same time, the SPY has gained 1.32%, the DIA has gained 1.16%, and the QQQ has gained 1.44%.  The VXX was down 3.44% to 15.42 and T2122 has climbed back up into the overbought territory to 90.91.  10-year bond yields have fallen back down to 3.76% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.37% to $81.13 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a mildly bullish day where the large caps were dragged higher by high-tech names, like NVDA, AMD, and ADBE.

In economic news, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report showed more than twice the expected oil drawdown.  The report claimed a 4.8-million-barrel drawdown (versus the forecasted 2.2-million-barrel drawdown, but better than last week’s 5.835-million-barrel drawdown.  Meanwhile, in Fed speak, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that “We’re (FOMC) committed to using our tools to put inflation on a sustainable downward trajectory to 2%.”  She went on to say that wage increases are rising, but they are below inflation, suggesting they are not a key inflation driver. She also said inflation expectations remain stable but did not comment on the outlook for Fed policy.  Later, Kansas City Fed President George said that the ample US savings will be a buffer and could mean higher interest rates are needed to cool inflation. (In other words, as a country, we have too much savings, so we will feel the pain later and may keep spending longer, causing the Fed to need to keep hiking rates longer and higher to overcome that savings buffer in order to reduce spending.)

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In stock news, TEVA and ABBV announced they have finalized the terms of their settlement (worth more than $6.6 billion) to resolve thousands of lawsuits by state and local governments over marketing opioid painkillers.  The breakdown is approximately $4.25 billion paid by TEVA and 2.37 billion paid by ABBV.  However, final payout numbers will depend on how many state and local governments opt-in versus those who go on to court proceedings.  Later in the day, a META spokesman had to deny the persistent rumors that CEO Zuckerberg will be stepping down in 2023.  (Shares of META had been up close to 2% on the rumor and retreated after the rebuttal.)  At the same time, ZEN announced it has been taken private in a $10.2 billion deal which will pay shareholders $77.50/share.  Elsewhere, the SEC charged the GS Asset Mgmt. unit for failing to follow policies and procedures related to mutual funds that it had marketed as “ESG” investments. GS agreed to pay a $4 million penalty without admitting (or denying) the charges.  Meanwhile, HPQ announced after the close that it will be cutting 4,000-6,000 jobs between now and the end of 2025 and that it will incur a $1.0 billion charge related to restructuring costs with $0.6 billion of that coming in 2023.  (Implying 60% of those job cuts will happen next year.) Finally, COP announced it has taken a stake in the SRE Port Arthur LNG terminal.

In miscellaneous news, the White House said Tuesday that President Biden is directly involved in negotiations between railroads and unions after he had publicly said a rail shutdown was “unacceptable.”  This may be related to the CEO of UNP railroad being called to Washington and also called to testify before the Surface and Transport Board on December 13-14 to address the railroad’s substantial increase in the use of embargoes.  (An embargo is when a railroad fears rail network congestion and it temporarily embargoes or halts train movement until the company deems the congestion has cleared.  This causes delays in shipments without impacting the reported (or paid for) service levels, similar to a “force majeure” declaration in a contract.) During 2017, UNP had 5 embargoes but has declared over 1,000 so far in 2022.  Elsewhere, in Europe, EU countries are now close to announcing the cap price on Russian oil (maybe as soon as today).  In what I’m sure is unrelated news, the Russian company Gazprom again threatened to cut the gas supply to the single remaining pipeline (through Ukraine) that feeds Western Europe.  However, European (and especially German) natural gas stockpiles remain full and as of Tuesday, a German independent agency said the energy outlook for Germany had improved from just a couple of months ago. (This means the Russian threat may carry less weight.)

After the close, HPQ, BBAR, and JWN both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  In addition, ADSK met both revenue and earnings estimates.  At the same time, GES beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, VMW missed on both the revenue and earnings lines. It’s worth noting, ADSK and GES both lowered their forward guidance. So far this morning, DE beat (handily) on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on modest moves.  Australia (+0.70%), Japan (+0.61%), and Hong Kong (+0.57%) led the region higher while only Shenzhen (-0.27%) and Singapore (-0.11%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, in Europe, exchanges are also mostly green on smaller moves at midday.  The FTSE (+0.31%), DAX (-0.17%), and CAC (-0.02%) are typical with most of the smaller exchanges modestly in the green in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 3.769% and Oil (WTI) is down almost 2% to $79.31/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday, October Building Permits (8 am), October Durable Goods and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Oct. New Home Sales (both at 10 am), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm) are reported.   Meanwhile, the major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DE before the open.  Then, after the close, LU reports.

As you would expect on a holiday week, there will be no economic news on Thursday or Friday due to the Thanksgiving break. There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for Thursday or Friday.

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There is a lot of economic data crammed into the schedule today due to the holiday-shortened week. Among other things, mortgage demand grew 2.2% last week as rates plummeted from 6.91% the prior week to 6.67% (6.61% at one point) for a 30-year fixed-rate loan last week. The Dollar is also showing a little weakness for the second day in a row. (News that should support commodity prices at the margins.) And while we are not supposed to get Fed speakers today, analysts are expecting to see the FOMC Minutes show strong support in the committee for higher terminal rates to really choke out inflation (which could be a bit of a disappointment to markets but has been signaled all week by Fed speakers). At the very least, the minutes are expected to tamp down bull hopes of a pause in hikes.

In the short term, the large-cap indices are working to break out of the recent consolidation (5-day) with the DIA already broken out and the SPY appearing to do so in the premarket. Even the lagging Q is breaking out of the top of its Pennant downtrend in premarket trading today. Extension from the T-line is not a problem yet but the T2122 indicator had climbed back into the overbought area. So, be careful. Also, do not be surprised if volume and moves die as the day goes on and markets seems to slowly drift one way or the other…especially in the late afternoon. Remember that this is the virtual Friday before a 4-day weekend for the majority of traders, with only a minority planning to return to their trading desk for a half-day on Friday. In short, this may be time better spent “sharpening your axe” than trying to chop up too many trees.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APPS, VALE, EBAY, WFC, and MPC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Coasting into the Holiday Break?

On Monday, stocks opened basically flat (SPY and QQQ down modestly and DIA flat).  All 3 major indices then sold off modestly until 11 am.  We then saw a sideways grind in a very tight range un 12:30 pm.  We then saw a rally in all 3 major indices that died out at 1:45 pm and fell into a very modest and slow pullback, again in a tight range, all the way into the close.  This action is giving us very indecisive, black-bodied Spinning Top type candles in the 3 major indices.  The two large-cap indices held up after their retests of their T-lines, while the QQQ closed slightly back below its own 8ema.

On the day, six of the ten sectors are in the red, with Consumer Defensive sector (+0.67%) leading the four gainers and the Technology sector (-1.41%) lagging behind.  At the same time, the SPY fell 0.36%, the DIA fell 0.09%, and the QQQ fell 1.03%. The VXX was down 2.68% to 15.97 and T2122 fell back out of overbought territory to 75.57.  10-year bond yields have climbed back up to 3.833% and Oil (WTI) was down 0.42% to $79.74 per barrel.  So, overall Monday was an indecisive session as we wait on more earnings on Tuesday and then the holiday break.

In stock news, the G20 Financial Stability Board issued its report on the world’s most “systematically important banks,” which concluded that JPM remains the world’s most important bank to financial systems which means it remains the most in need of tight scrutiny to ensure it has a capital buffer.  BAC was on the list and moved into the bucket needing lesser scrutiny (due to improved capital reporting) where it joined C in that tier of scrutiny requirement.  Elsewhere, British Competition Regulator announced it is looking into the $61 billion acquisition of VMW by AVGO. In other M&A news, MRK announced it will acquire IMGO for $1.35 billion (at 107% premium on Friday’s closing price).  Meanwhile, DKNG shares plummeted Monday on news that the company was hacked and user accounts had been cashed out as part of the hack.  Elsewhere, TSLA shareholders have created an online petition urging the CEO (Elon Musk) to initiate a share buyback program to support the share price.  Among those leading this call are the third largest TSLA shareholder, Leo KoGuan.  Finally, Bloomberg reported that BYND has serious food safety issues, including noticeable listeria, mold, and other food safety red flags at its PA plant.  This was witnessed by 11 different occasions where the facility tested positive for Listeria within the 6 months ending Dec. 2021.

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In legal news and government news, a US Appeals Court has decertified a class action lawsuit that had found BA and LUV liable for covering up a fatal flaw in the BA 737 Max 8 plane design.  The court ruled that because the risk did not materialize (i.e. there was no crash) the risk never really existed, so plaintiffs lacked standing.  Elsewhere, the FAA proposed new rules to regulate vertical takeoff/landing Air Taxis in coming years.  At the moment, only DAL has invested significantly in that niche and the company is expecting significant urban demand in coming years and specifically the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.  Finally, the US Supreme Court has decided to hear a case brought by BF.A against a dog toy maker for their parody of the Jack Daniel’s “Old No. 7” trademark (the dog toy box had been labeled as “Old No. 2 on your Tennessee Carpet” and included alcohol descriptions of “43% Poo By Vol.”  (So, take heart, life can’t be all that bad if our highest court has time to hear and rule on this kind of thing.)

In Supply Chain news, the largest rail union has voted to reject the latest contract offer by railroads.  The sticking issue is paid sick time.  As a result, a potential national rail strike is back on the table for as soon as December 9.  A full strike would shutdown roughly 40% of US freight long-haul shipments (which exclude “last mile” deliveries).  The expected impact would be roughly $2 billion per day and the US would need an extra 460,000 semi-trucks to offset the tonnage this would stop.

After the close, DELL, SNEX, A, MMS, and ZM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ZTO missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, URBN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CENT and CENTA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ZM and CENT/CENTA lowered their forward guidance.

So far this morning, BBY, ADI, DY, CAL, and AMWD all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  In the meantime, MDT, VIPS, and CSIQ all missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BIDU and IQ beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, BURL missed on both the revenue and the earnings lines.  (DLTR and DKS reports come out later in premarket.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Taiwan (+0.64%), Japan (+0.61%), and Australia (+0.59%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-1.31%), Shenzhen (-1.18%), and South Korea (-0.59%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks are mixed but lean toward the green side at midday.  The FTSE (+0.55%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.17%) lead the region with a strong majority of the smaller exchanges in the green in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a start to the day modestly on the green side of flat. The DIA implies a +0.18% open, the SPY is implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.03% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 3.791% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.3% to $81.08/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include the API Weekly Oil Stock report (4:30 pm) as well as 3 Fed speakers (Mester at 11 am, George at 2:15 pm, and Bullard 2:45 pm).  Meanwhile, the major earnings reports scheduled for the day are ANF, AEO, AMWD, ADI, BIDU, BBY, BURL, CAL, CSIQ, CHS, DKS, DLTR, DY, IQ, MDT, VIPS, and WMG before the open.  Then, after the close, ADSK, GES, HPQ, and JWN report.

As you would expect on a holiday week, this week will be light on economic news.  On Wednesday, October Building Permits, October Durable Goods, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Mfg. PMI, Services PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  Thursday and Friday have no economic news due to the holiday.

In earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, DE and LU report.  There are no reports on Thursday or Friday due to the holiday.

LTA Scanning Software

As the holiday-shortened week grinds forward, the focus today will be trying to read through on the state of the consumer from the handful of retail reports that come out today. BBY beat on both lines and held its outlook as it was before. This comes after DELL beat on both lines last night. So, if that gives you some clue of electronics buyers’ mood, it seems things are as expected and not getting appreciably better or worse yet as we head into the holiday sales season. One thing that should be noted is that the US Dollar is down today, pulling back for the first time in four sessions and down against all major trading pairs. This will give a tailwind to commodities on at least a very short-term basis. Also bear in mind that we have several Fed speakers today. It is likely they will continue to spread the message that things are improving…but we should not expect a Fed pivot any time in the near future. (In other words, there will be a hike in December, it may be less than 0.75%, but it will be a hike and it won’t be the last one as the Fed continues to tighten toward its terminal rate goal that is still 1-3% higher, depending on whether you believe perma-hawk Bullard or others.)

In the short term, all 3 major indices can be seen to be in a Bullish Pennant pattern of one sort or another. The trend remains bullish, the T-line has held after multiple retests in the large-caps, and although it fell through the T-line yesterday, the QQQ looks ready to try to get back above that level this morning. So, over-extension is not a problem for the market today either. The probabilities are in the Bull’s favor in the near term as we grind toward the holiday break. Do not be surprised if volume and moves on strength die out as we get close to the Wednesday close. (Look to yesterday’s “dead market” periods as a guide.) In short, this may be time better spent “sharpening your axe” than trying to chop up too many trees.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BP, TSLA, AMC, CLF, BIDU, PSX, ETSY, and XOM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

DIS Surprise Starts Slow Holiday Week

Markets diverged at the open again Friday as the SPY gapped up 0.87%, DIA gapped up 0.37%, and QQQ gapped up 1.10% to start the day. However, at that point, all 3 got back in-step and sold off the first 40 minutes with all 3 having recrossed their gaps by 10:10 am.  Then 3 major indices diverged again with QQQ continuing its selloff, DIA going sideways back and forth inside its morning gap in waves, and the SPY bouncing along on both sides of the Thursday close. This lasted until 3:30 pm, when a broad-based rally took all 3 indices back up a bit.  All this action is giving us black-bodied candles that retested and held the T-line in all 3 major indices.  The DIA was more of an indecisive Doji candle while the SPY was more of a Black Hammer, and the QQQ was just a black candle with a large lower wick.

On the day, seven of the ten sectors are in the green, with Utilities sector (+2.00%) leading the winners by a large margin while the Energy Sector (-0.67%) fared worst.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 0.45%, the DIA gained +0.38%, and the QQQ was dead flat at day end.  The VXX fell 1.03% to 16.41 and T2122 climbed back into the low end of the overbought territory at 85.71.  10-year bond yields have climbed back up to 3.824% and Oil (WTI) plunged another 1.90% to $80.09 per barrel.  So, overall Friday was a gap-up day where that turned indecisive as the bulls could not follow through and the bears were able to fade the gap, but ultimately could not drive prices lower as the late-day rally turned markets modestly green.

In stock news, CVNA announced Friday they are cutting another 1,500 jobs (another 8% of the workforce) after cutting 2,500 earlier in the fall.  In other Auto industry news, EVGO announced a deal to become the preferred EV charging partner of Subaru with buyers of some of Subaru’s EV offerings receiving a $400 credit to use EVGO fast charging stations nationwide in the US.  Elsewhere, HON agreed to pay $1.3 billion to end asbestos-related lawsuit claims against a former business unit.  On Saturday, TSLA recalled 321,000 cars over rear light problems.  Finally, in a shocker, the CEO of DIS (Chapek) was ousted Sunday night and replaced with former DIS CEO, Bob Iger. Iger returns to the job after a 3-year hiatus.

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In miscellaneous news, the CFTC reports the that US Dollar is in a “net short” position for the first time since July 2021.  Former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes was sentenced to 11 years in prison Friday after the close for her defrauding of investors.  In economic news from Friday, the October Existing Home Sales came in a bit higher than expected at 4.43 million (compared to the forecasted value of 4.38 million, but worse than the September value of 4.71 million).  In China-related news, the bull’s hopes that China was pivoting from its “Zero Covid” policy evaporated over the weekend as the city was rumored to be a test case for loosening instead closed schools, locked down universities and ordered its residents to stay at home for 5 days. So, no loosening yet.

In Ecological news, the COP27 conference reached a deal to pay the poor countries for all the environmental damage caused by climate change due to the industrialized nations’ emissions.  However, no more progress was made on getting the industrialized nations (especially the US and China) to actually meet their previously agreed commitments to reduce emissions.

So far this morning, J and SJM both beat on the revenue and earnings lines. 

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside, but on mostly modest moves.  Hong Kong (-1.87%) was by far the biggest loser while South Korea (-1.02%), and India (-0.88%) rounded out the biggest red numbers.  On the upside, only Japan (+0.16%), and Thailand (+0.09%) managed to stay green on the day.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  The FTSE (-0.05%), DAX (-0.67%), and CAC (-0.20%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trade, with only 2 small exchanges managing to stay modestly green so far.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.25% open, the SPY is implying a -0.57% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.82% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 3.831% and Oil (WTI) is off eight-tenths of a percent to $79.40/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are FUTU, SJM, J, and NIU before the open.  Then, after the close, A, CENTA, CENT, DELL, MMS, SNEX, URBN, ZM, and ZTO report.

As you would expect on a holiday week, this week will be light on economic news.  On Tuesday we get the API Weekly Oil Stock report as well as 3 Fed speakers (Mester, George, and Bullard).  Then Wednesday, October Building Permits, October Durable Goods, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Mfg. PMI, Services PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  Thursday and Friday have no economic news due to the holiday.

In earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ANF, AEO, AMWD, ADI, BIDU, BBY, BURL, CAL, CSIQ, CHS, DKS, DLTR, DY, IQ, MDT, VIPS, WMG, ADSK, GES, HPQ, and JWN.  Then on Wednesday, DE and LU report.  There are no reports on Thursday or Friday due to the holiday.

LTA Scanning Software

The shortened holiday week is shaping up to be light on news and lighter on earnings than in recent weeks. Still, we will get some more retail and miscellaneous earnings reports (mostly Tuesday). In the short term, the trend remains bullish and over-extension has been addressed with last week’s pullback and hold to the T-line and support. With this background, what we know for sure is that the probabilities in the near term lie in the Bull’s favor. However, continue to be cautious about chasing. Finally, expect the volume to lighten up as we get closer to the holiday (and we can expect Friday’s half-day to be a dead market).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GRWG, DDD, AAPL, NKE, FSM, TSLA, NOK You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed Hawks Warn and Retail Keeps Beating

Again or still…for the second day in a row. However you say it, it’s the same story as Thursday.

Markets gapped down strongly Thursday after Wednesday’s Hawkish Fed statements.  The SPY opened down 1.27%, DIA gapped down 1.00%, and QQQ jumped down 1.59% at the open.  However, from that point, the bulls started a slow, wavy, rally that took us to the highs of the day about 1:20 pm. At that point, a slow, steady selloff started that took us back down into the morning gap, before rallying hard the last 30 minutes. During the session, price tested and held the T-line (8ema) in all 3 indices (SPY, DIA, and QQQ).  This action gave us gap-down white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices.

On the day, eight of the ten sectors are in the red, with the Utilities sector (-1.53%) leading the losses while the Communications Services (+0.16%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.14%) sectors held up the best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.31%, the DIA was flat at +0.01%, and the QQQ lost 0.22%.  The VXX fell 0.96% to 16.58 and T2122 dropped back into the center of the mid-range at 56.25.  10-year bond yields have climbed to 3.769% and Oil (WTI) plunged 4.26% to $81.94 per barrel.  So, overall Thursday was a gap-down day where the bulls immediately rejected the gap as the bulls and bears then fought to an overall standstill by day’s end.

In economic news, October Building Permits came in above the forecast at a number of 1.526 million (compared to 1.512 million expected, but still below the September value of 1.564 million).  October Housing Starts also beat the forecasted value, coming in at 1.425 million (compared to the forecasted 1.410 million, but again still below the 1.488 million in September).  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also beat expectations, coming in at 222k (compared to a forecasted 225k and last week’s value of 226k).  However, the November Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in far below expectations at -19.4 (compared to the forecasted -6.2 and October’s value of -8.7).  In other economic news, Bloomberg reported that US mortgage rates saw the biggest drop in over 41 years this week, with the US avg. 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropping to 6.61% (lowest level in two months).  In Fed news, Fed speakers gave us more hawkish comments Thursday.  St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard said that the rate hikes, so far, have only had limited effects on inflation.  He suggested rates will have to be hiked further than expected to effectively bring down inflation.  While he did not say how high, he used a chart that showed a range of 5%-7% (and we are currently between 3.75% and 4%).  Later, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he wants to be sure inflation has stopped climbing before he would support stopping interest rate hikes, and “it’s an open question how far we have to go with the interest rate (hikes).”

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In stock news, Reuters reported that HAS is looking to sell its TV production business unit eOne.  Meanwhile, the FAA said it does not expect to certify the BA “737 Max 7” plane this year.  This means the plane will need to be reworked to meet new cockpit safety alert standards that come into effect on December 27.  However, BA is still seeking a waiver from those safety standards from Congress, but no progress has been reported on that front yet.  Elsewhere, GM subsidiary Brightdrop said it expects to reach $1 billion in revenue.  Also on Thursday, workers at 100 SBUX stores held a 1-day walkout to protest “illegal retaliation against workers who tried to organize unions.”  Elsewhere, after hours, DNUT settled US Dept. of Labor charges that it failed to pay overtime to several hundred workers by paying a $1.19 million fine.  Finally, AMZN CEO Jassy said the company would continue cutting jobs into 2023, but did not detail the additional cuts.

In energy news, the EIA said on Thursday that in October, Heating Oil costs for US households were 65% more than in the same month of 2021. In part, this was due to the US importing 38% less distillate fuel than it has in recent years as well as by a fire that has taken the largest East Coast distillate refinery (in Philadelphia) offline permanently.  In other energy news, the cause of Thursday’s selloff in oil is being attributed to bad covid news out of China.  The Chinese new case total has risen to the highest level since April with the majority of new cases coming from the heavy manufacturing region of Guangzhou.  However, the hawkish talk from Fed members also stoked fear of a rate-hike-induced economic slowdown in the US, which did not help oil prices.

After the close, AMAT, ROST, GPS, POST, UGI, KEYS, PANW, WWD, and STNE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WSM beat on the revenue line while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, FTCH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ROST, KEYS, and PANW raised their forward guidance.  However, GPS, UGI, WWD, and STNE all lowered their forward guidance.

So far this morning, JD and FL have both reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  However, SPB reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest moves.  New Zealand (+0.76%) was by far the largest gainer while Shanghai (-0.58%), Singapore (-0.42%), and Shenzhen (-0.37%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the exception of Russia (-0.65%), the entire region is in the green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.92%), DAX (+1.00%), and CAC (+1.20%) are leading a broad-based rally in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.56% open, the SPY is implying a +0.76% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.93% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are moving higher at 3.799% and Oil (WTI) is off fractionally to $81.37/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday, are limited to October Existing Home Sales are reported at 10 am.  It is also important to note that today is Options Expiration Friday and Bloomberg reports we have $2 Trillion of options expiring today. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are FL, JD, and SPB before the open.  However, there are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

LTA Scanning Software

The retail industry continues to show strong earnings, implying that consumers (at least last quarter) had not yet rolled over into recession mode. However, hawkish Fed comments (especially from the most hawkish, Bullard) are telling markets not to get ahead of themselves. (Bullard implied that the end of hikes may not come until 2% higher than analysts and Fed futures have priced in. If that were to happen, it is not yet priced into markets.) So, once again, beauty and the market outlook is in the eye of the beholder. There is something to hang your hat on regardless of how you feel about market direction in the longer term.

However, in the short term, there is no question that the trend is bullish and we have seen a healthy pullback to rest in the upward move. All 3 major indices tested and held the T-line yesterday. So, extension is no problem at all (either in terms of the T-line or T2122). In addition, we held support levels in all 3 major indices. With this background, what we know for sure is that the probabilities in the near term lie in the Bull’s favor. With that said, continue to be cautious about chasing and remember it is Friday (time to get paid and “get ready for the weekend news cycle” day). This is also Options Expiration Friday, with Bloomberg reporting more than $2 Trillion in options ending at the close (really Saturday, but effectively at the close). So, we could always see some kind of price action where somebody tries to pin the price in or out of the money depending on their option position. Just be aware if there is a large open interest near price.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: no trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fed Hawks Speak, Retail Beats Continue

Markets diverged a bit at the open Wednesday as QQQ gapped down 0.80%, SPY gapped down 0.40%, and DIA gapped down just 0.20%.  From there, the SPY and QQQ ran sideways in waves within a not-too-large range below the open all day while the DIA did the same back and forth back across the prior close level all day.  This action gave us smaller candles today, with the SPY and QQQ printing black-bodied Spinning Top candles while the DIA printed a white-bodied Inverted Hammer-type candle. This action relieved extension from the T-line (8ema) as well. 

On the day, nine of ten sectors were in the red, with the Technology sector (-2.24%) leading the losses while the Utility sector (+0.47%) held up best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.76%, the DIA gained 0.04%, and the QQQ lost 1.36%.  The VXX fell 2,67% to 16.74 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 67.57.  10-year bond yields fell down to 3.692% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.82% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, overall Wednesday was a rest day where we saw a modest pullback in the bullish trend.

In economic news, October Import Price Index fell by 0.2% (compared to a drop of 0.4% that was forecast and the September drop of 1.1%).  On the other side, October Export Price Index fell 0.3% (compared to a forecast drop of 0.4% and the September drop of 1.5%).  Meanwhile, October Retail Sales grew by 1.3% (much more strongly than the forecast +1.0% and the September dead flat value at +0.0%).  Later, October Industrial Production grew 3.28% showing some slowing compared to the September 4.96% growth.  Elsewhere, September Business Inventories grew less than expected at +0.4% (compared to +0.5% forecasted and the August +0.9% growth).  At the same time, September Retail Inventories fell 0.1% which was exactly what was forecasted and better than the August growth of 0.6%.  Finally, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories followed the API move by having a 5.400-million-barrel drawdown (compared to an expected 440k barrel drawdown and last week’s 3.925-million-barrel build in stocks).

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In stock news, UAL said Wednesday that they expect the busiest travel day since the start of Covid-19 over the Thanksgiving weekend.  They forecast a 12% increase in passengers over the holiday weekend compared to 2021.  Meanwhile, COST says it has reached a deal with activist investors to cut its greenhouse emissions to new meet a new target by the end of next year.  70% of COST shareholders voted in favor of a resolution for COST to cut emissions back in January.  At the same time, a Washington state court has ruled that the $4 billion dividend payment by ACI, scheduled to be paid today will remain on hold pending the close of the KR buyout.  Reuters reports that regulators have said they received “good access” to Chinese firms’ financial records during their 7-week audit in Hong Kong.  BABA and YUMC were among the 200 companies whose records were audited in hope of saving the US listings for those companies.  Elsewhere, TSLA reported 2 new fatal car crashes involving their self-driving systems on Model 3 cars to the NHTSA Wednesday.

In miscellaneous news, despite constant talk of heavy inflation, Coffee prices have been collapsing recently, due in part to great weather in Brazil.   Coffee futures fell from $239 at the end of August to $158 (per 237,000 pounds of beans) currently. This represents a 34% drop in 2.5 months.  Elsewhere, three environmental groups sued the state of LA over its issuing of a permitting exemption to an LNG Terminal run by an unlisted firm.  However, this terminal would impact several listed companies such as KMI, ATO, and XOM.  Finally, in Fed news, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that “a pause is off the table” while Fed Governor Waller said the Fed “has a ways to go” on rate hikes and we will still need increases into next year (although he added that data is making him more comfortable with a 0.50% increase in December).

After the close, CSCO, BBWI, HP, and HI all beat on both the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, NVDA and CPRT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CPA missed on revenue while beating on earnings. 

So far this morning, BABA, SIEGY, M, KSS, BJ, NTES, and FORTY all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOLE, BV, and WB all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, PLCE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It’s worth noting that BJ and M both raised their forward guidance while KSS removed its forward guidance altogether, citing a volatile retail environment.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on modest moves.  South Korea (-1.39%) and Hong Kong (-1.15%) led the region lower while Singapore (+0.61%), Australia (+0.19%), and Malaysia (+0.06%) were the only three exchanges that managed to stay green.  In Europe, exchanges are red across the board as of midday.  The FTSE (-0.53%), DAX (-0.05%), and CAC (-0.71%) are typical of the region with a couple of the smaller exchanges managing to be down more than one percent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.60% open, the SPY is implying a -0.67% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.63% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 3.721% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.79% to $84.06/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am).  We also have a few Fed speakers (Bullard at 8 am, Bowman at 9:15 am, and Mester at 9:40 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, and WB before the open.  Then, after the close, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM and WWD report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.  Meanwhile, in earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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With retail earnings continuing to show strong consumers (last quarter) and some expectations (HD, LOW, WMT, M, BJ) for this quarter, and Hawkish Fed members telling the market not to expect a pause in rate hikes, we get ready for another day in the market. Traders seem cautiously pessimistic in the Premarket. At any rate, retail earnings have shown that there is a clear split between strong management teams (WMT, M, BJ, etc.) and the weak ones TGT (which was punished yesterday).

With this background, what we know for sure is that the trend is bullish continues and it looks like stocks are going to retest the T-line today in all 3 major indices. So, over-extension is no problem at all today. We are also now coming back down into a potential support level for the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. So, continue to be cautious if you are thinking of chasing a move (bearish or bullish).

Be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VALE, CSCO, TLT, DIS, INTC, AAPL, EGHT, AFRM, NAIL, NTR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Ukraine Air Defense and TGT Q4 Warning

Markets gapped strongly higher at the open Tuesday (+1.50% in the SPY, +0.82% in the DIA, and a whopping +2.48% in the QQQ) after PPI and the NY Fed Mfg. Index both came in much better than expected (from a market perspective). From there, all 3 major indices waffled sideways in a fairly tight range until just before noon.  At that point, a slow selloff took us slowly to the lows of the day (as of then) at about 1 pm.  Then at 1:10 pm, 2 missiles (presumed Russian and likely intended for Ukraine) struck a Polish village a few kilometers inside Poland, killing 2 Polish civilians.  Poland called an emergency National Security Council meeting to talk about their response. This caused a strong and immediate selloff across all 3 major indices as traders feared escalation of the war to involve NATO.  This hard selloff recrossed the morning gap and reached the lows of the day by 2 pm when a bounce kicked in that regained about two-thirds of the losses seen in the afternoon by 3:30 pm and then ground sideways into the close. 

On the day, this action is giving us gap-up, black-bodied Spinning Top type candles across all 3 major indices.  (With a little larger body in the QQQ.)  Nine of ten sectors were in the green, led by the Technology sector (+2.57%) while Communications Services (-0.73%) lagged.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.85%, the DIA gained 0.13%, and the QQQ gained 1.38%.  The VXX rallied 1.3% to 17.20 and T2122 spiked back up into the overbought territory at 91.70.  10-year bond yields fell down to 3.777% and Oil (WTI) spiked 1.21% to $86.91 per barrel.  So, overall Tuesday was a volatile day punctuated by premarket economic news (which is taken as good by the market under the assumption it will cause the Fed to ease up) and bad afternoon geopolitical news (which the market briefly took as bad under fear of war expanding in Europe).

In economic news, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at +4.50, which was significantly higher than the forecasted value of -5.00 and very much improved from the October reading of -9.10.  This positive value indicates improving business conditions.  At the same time, October PPI came in at +8.0% (year-on-year) which, like CPI last week, was well below the forecasted value of +8.3% and much better than the September reading of +8.4%.  More importantly, the Core PPI (stripping out energy and food) was up just +6.7%, a full half percent below the forecast of +7.2% and much lower than the September value of +7.1%.  Again, this indicates the growth of inflation is easing by a considerable amount, which led traders to believe the Fed may reduce the size of the rate hike it does in December.  In the afternoon, the Fed reported that US Household Debt rose at the fastest pace in 15 years during Q3 (+$351 billion). This increase was mostly due to credit card usage and mortgage balances.

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In energy news, TRP announced after the close that it has declared Force Majeure and will be required to reduce the volume of oil shipped through the Keystone pipeline (that ships oil to the Midwestern US) due to recent severe weather events.  No details were given on the amount of the reduction or the duration of the slowdown.  However, industry analysts said the reduction was about 7% of the normal 622,000 barrels per day volume.  The API reported after the close that US oil inventories dropped much more than expected last week (a 5.8 million barrel drawdown, compared to a forecast 400k barrel drawdown).  However, gasoline inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels and distillate stocks increased 850k barrels.

In stock news, activist investors TCI Fund publicly urged GOOGL to cut headcount to lower losses at the company’s Waymo self-driving unit after noting that this unit had increased headcount 20% per year since 2017.   Elsewhere, AN announced Tuesday that it has acquired a 6.1% stake in automotive digital marketplace TRUE.  Meanwhile, Jim Farley, CEO of F, said the company will need to bring much more work in-house (eliminating the need for many suppliers) in order to preserve jobs.  The underlying problem for the F workforce is that it takes 40% less labor to build an electric vehicle and the underlying problem for F is that paying profit to suppliers reduces margins in comparison to TSLA (which makes most of its own parts).  In regulatory news, the SEC has delayed its decision on whether to approve an Ark21 (spot Bitcoin) ETF until Jan. 27.  In the late afternoon, Reuters reported that CG is in talks trying to form a partnership to acquire HPN for between $8-$10 billion.  Finally, in legal news, INTC was hit with a $949 million judgment by a Texas court Tuesday for infringing the patents of Softbank subsidiary VLSI.  Earlier in the day, it was reported that GS paid $12 million to a former partner over the charge of creating a “toxic workplace for women” including vulgar remarks by the CEO.  The settlement took place two years ago but was hidden by a nondisclosure agreement.

In miscellaneous news, the New York Fed announced it is starting a 12-week pilot project for the “digital dollar.”  The pilot will include participation by C, MA, and WFC among other financial institutions.  Elsewhere, Consumer Reports ranked TSLA worst out of 24 brands of electric vehicles in terms of reliability in the US.  In currency news, the missile strikes in Poland caused very volatile Forex trading Tuesday.  The Euro was down dramatically against all pair partners and the USD swung wildly against the Yen and British Pound.  Finally, in Supply Chain news, the Port of Los Angeles reports that October volumes at the busiest US seaport fell to the lowest level since 2009.  The imports were down 28% from a year earlier and empty container handling fell more than 25% during the month.

After the close, AAP reported a beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  The company also lowered its forward guidance.  Meanwhile, GSM reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  So far this morning, LOW, ARCO, and ZIM have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TGT beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  On the other side, TJX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that LOW raised its forward guidance and ZIM lowered its own forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on mostly modest moves while the second day of the G-20 summit continued in that region.  Shenzhen (-1.02%), Thailand (-0.58%), and Hong Kong (-0.47%) led the way lower. Meanwhile, only Japan (+0.14%) and India (+0.03%) managed to hang on to green territory.  In Europe, we see a very similar picture taking shape at midday.  After it was decided the missiles in Poland were likely caused by Ukrainian Air Defense misses (trying to shoot down Russian missile attacks), things have settled a bit.  The FTSE (-0.03%), DAX (-0.95%), and CAC (-0.48%) are typical of the region.  However, a couple of the smaller exchanges are down more than 1% in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are now pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.19% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.768% and Oil (WTI) is off just a fraction at $86.77/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include October Retail Sales and October Import/Export Price Indexes (both at 8:30 am), October Industrial Production (9:15 am), September Business Inventories and Sept. Retail Inventories (both at 10 am), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  We also have a Fed speaker (Williams at 9:50 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are ARCO, LOW, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, and ZIM before the open. Then, after the close, BBWI, CSCO, CPA, HP, HI, NVDA, and SONO report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.

In earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, WB, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM, and WWD report.  Finally, Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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With yesterday afternoon’s immediate threat (expanding war in Europe) mostly lessened, US markets turn back toward earnings and the economy. This morning, TGT warned it sees a weak holiday coming this year, but this is likely due to it having large inventories that will need to be discounted heavily in order to be sold. On the other hand, just like competitor HD, LOW raised its Q4 guidance saying that it expects a strong Q4. (Maybe more of Santa’s gifts are coming from the hardware store this year.) Also, yesterday we saw more evidence that inflation may be slowing (which could mean the pace of hikes by the Fed also eases up…and the market would love that). At any rate, tensions have eased a bit and retail earnings up to this moment are mixed at worst.

With this background, what we know for sure is that the trend is bullish and yesterday’s pullback did not break the recent range, let alone the trend. However, it did lessen extension from the T-line (8ema) just a bit. We also know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And, once again, our zig is still in need of a zag if we are going to sustain a bullish move higher. Can Mr. Market overcome that need, sure…but only in the short-term. So, even if the bulls rule the day, don’t expect this to be a vertical rally. Normal rallies need pullbacks and there are also a lot of bears out there that still believe Q1 and Q2 will be terrible and the market should fall more to account for this fact. In addition, we still have more retail name (lesser ones) reports coming later this week. So, caution is still warranted, but so far it is looking like the consumer may still hold up (at least through year-end).

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLUG, EL, GOLD, META, SBLK, VALE, and GFI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

WMT Has Huge Beat and Raises Guidance

Stocks gapped down modestly on Monday (-0.69% in the QQQ, -0.45% in the SPY, and -0.31% in the DIA).  The three major indices rollercoastered their way sideways until about 12:30 pm.  At that point, all 3 of those indices rallied up above the gap to new highs of the day at 2 pm.  Then a slow, protracted selloff took us back down to Friday’s close by 2:45 pm before accelerating into a hard selloff the last 30 minutes.  This took us out to a close very near the lows of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with long upper wicks and small lower wicks.  (In other words, black Inverted Hammer candles in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.)  It is worth noting that all 3 major indices are still extended above their T-line (8ema), especially the QQQ and SPY. 

On the day, all ten sectors were red after the late selloff with the Financial Services sector (-1.28%) leading the losses and Communications Services (-0.17%) holding up best.  Meanwhile, the SPY lost 0.78%, the DIA lost 0.60%, and the QQQ lost 0.88%.  The VXX rallied to close dead flat at 16.98 and T2122 dropped and fell just outside the overbought territory at 77.88.  10-year bond yields rose a bit to 3.874% and Oil (WTI) plunged 4.22% to $85.21 per barrel.  So, all-in-all, Monday was a pause day that ended up with very modest pullbacks across the market.

In Fed news, Fed Vice-Chair Brainard gave us a study in contradiction Monday when she said that she “thinks it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of (rate) increases.”  However, later in the speech, she said “Inflation is very high in the United States and abroad” and “Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to have confidence that inflation is moving back to target…For these reasons, we are committed to avoiding pulling back prematurely.”  In other words, there was a little something for both sides of the debate and the listener will interpret her words to support the position they held before she started talking.

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In stock news, Reuters reported Monday that AMZN is planning to lay off 10,000 employees from corporate and technology positions.  Elsewhere, Investing.com reports that VLKAF (Volkswagen) has reached its goal of delivering 500k electric vehicles more than a year earlier than they had forecast.  (For reference, TSLA, the leader in electric cars, has delivered 3.2 million cars total since 2015.)  After the close, Reuters reported that FDX (specifically the freight division) is furloughing an unspecified number of employees due to business conditions that are hurting shipping volumes.  In addition, ILMN announced after hours that it is cutting 5% of its global workforce. At the same time, activist investor Ancora Holdings said Monday that it will fight the sale of IAA (in which Anchora holds a 4% stake) to RBA for $7.3 billion (which was a 19% premium on the IAA price at the time of the deal).  Ancora claimed it was a poorly structured deal that resulted from a weak sale process that was not in the best interest of the shareholders.  Finally, GOOGL paid nearly $400 million to settle the allegations brought by 40 states that the tech giant illegally tracked users’ locations back in 2014 (action brought in 2018).

In BRKB (Warren Buffet) news, Monday filings of 13F documents show that Berkshire has taken a 60 million share position in TSM.  They also took a 5.75 million share in LPX and a 434k position in JEF.  In the oil industry, Berkshire added to its holdings of both CVX and OXY.  Among other big names, BRKB maintained its holdings in AAPL ($133 billion) and BAC ($38 billion).  Finally, Berkshire increased its holdings of PARA by 13 million shares.  All the stocks in which a new Berkshire position was announced were trading higher in the post-market session.

In energy news, Reuters reports that CVX is sending crews to cap old wells that are leaking methane and other gases.  This action is ahead of new regulations coming in CO after voters set limits on unused wells.  CVX estimates it will cost between $80k and $100k per well to cap each of the 500 wells in that state, each of which produces as much emissions as 22,000 cars each year.  Elsewhere, on Monday afternoon, executives at DUK and AEP told Bloomberg that they see the recently passed “Inflation Reduction Act” as significantly reducing their customer’s energy bills.  They went on to say that the law will shift the majority of those savings onto the top 1% of taxpayers.  However, they had not fully analyzed the dollar value of potential savings of their customers.

So far this morning, MT, BAM, AZN, USFD, RWEOY, BDX, NIO, DDS, TDG, KELYA, SBH, SLVM, and NICE all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AEG, WRK, TPR, EPC, and EYE all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRMW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, WE and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that USFD and PRMW raised their forward guidance.  However, BDX, NIO, TPR, SBH, WE, and YETI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the upside.  Hong Kong (+4.11%), Taiwan (+2.64%), and Shenzhen (+2.14%) led the region higher as tech stocks soared on the optimism caused by the Biden-Xi talks and joint statements (and despite Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data disappointing).  Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks are much more mixed and even lean to the red side at midday.  The FTSE (-0.03%), DAX (-0.05%), and CAC (+0.31%) lead the region showing more red than green in early afternoon trading.  However, as of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.33% open, the SPY is implying a +0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.12% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 3.812% and Oil (WTI) is off seven-tenths of a percent to $85.27/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include October PPI and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are ARMK, BERY, ENR, AQUA, HD, SE, TME, VVV, and WMT before the open. Then, after the close, AAP and GSM report.   

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, October Retail Sales, October Import/Export Price Indexes, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and a Fed speaker (Williams) report. On Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.

In earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, LOW, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, BBWI, CSCO, CPA, HP, HI, NVDA, and SONO report.  Then on Thursday, we hear from BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, WB, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM, and WWD report.  Finally, Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

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So far this morning, WMT, HD, SE, TME, VVV, ENR, and AQUA all posted beats on both the top and bottom lines.  (WMT and HD in particular posted significant beats on both revenue and earnings.)  Meanwhile, ARMK beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is also worth noting that WMT raised its forward guidance.

With that background, premarkets are very bullish, in part because WMT says sales are stronger than expected and its inventory glut has been significantly reduced. Between this and the HD revenue beat, traders seem to be reading through that the consumer is in much better shape than the bears had been suggesting. Still, we do have the PPI data at 8:30 am, and while it tends to follow in line with the CPI data, there is still a chance that we get a premarket shock later this morning. Be careful chasing any bullish moves. We know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And, once again, at the moment, our zig is in need of a zag if this is going to be a sustained move higher. Can good news overcome the need, sure…but only in the short-term. So, even if the bulls rule the day, don’t expect this to be a vertical rally. In addition, we have more big retail names coming up later this week. There is no guarantee they will have had the same results that WMT and HD had last quarter. Finally, remember that we get another read on the US consumer this week as the big retail names all report.

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IGT, TWOU, ELF, VRT, ANET, KGC, HZNP, GOLD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Biden Meets Xi as We Enter Retail Week

Markets opened flat on Friday.  At that point, we saw a wave of volatility until 11:30 am.  This was volatility to the upside on the SPY and QQQ and to the downside on the DIA. Then the 3 major indices got into lock-step and steadily rallied in the afternoon until we saw a small pullback at 3 pm. However, the day ended on a run back up near the high of the day.  The QQQ broke out of its “W pattern” resistance level during the day.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with wicks at both ends in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, the DIA printed a Dragonfly Doji candle. 

On the day, eight of the ten sectors were in the green with the Consumer Cyclical sector (+2.95%) leading the way higher while the Utility sector (-0.97%) lagged behind.  Meanwhile, the SPY gained 0.97%, the DIA gained 0.16%, and the QQQ gained 1.84%. The VXX was down 1.34% to 16.98 and T2122 remained deep in the overbought territory at 96.26.  10-year bond yields remained lower at 3.811% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.76% to $88.86 per barrel.  So, all-in-all, Friday saw modest follow-through to Thursday’s CPI rally everywhere other than the DIA where we got a pause.

In miscellaneous news, Friday evening, Reuters reported that EL was close to a deal to buy luxury brand Tom Ford for $2.8 billion and details may be announced as soon as today.  On Sunday, TSLA said it will assist Chinese police in investigating another fatal crash (2 dead, 3 injured) of a Model Y car on November 5.  TSLA has faced claims of brake failure in the past in China and a witness to this crash (a family member of the driver) said the driver was having problems with the brake pedal, but video of the crash showed no brake lights.  In various buyback announcements, ASML authorized $12.43 billion in additional buybacks, PSX approved a $5 billion increase in its buyback plan, TMO authorized $4 billion in buybacks, and STLD added another $1.5 billion to its existing share buyback plans.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

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In cryptocurrency news, the crypto world continued to be rocked by the implosion (and Friday bankruptcy) of crypto exchange FTX.  Over the weekend, it was reported that, in addition to the company’s financial woes, FTX was hacked with over $400 million in coins missing.  Even more troubling, recently FTX’s former CEO (Sam Bankman-Fried) moved $10 billion of customer funds from the FTX exchange to his own trading company (Alameda Research). From there, as much as $1.7 billion has gone “missing” in the last couple of weeks.  Meanwhile, in the same space, Crypto.com says it has now recovered $400 million of Ether coins days after that money had been “misplaced” when Crypto.com mistakenly sent 320k Ether coins to a cold wallet owned by Gate.io.  All of this turmoil has caused billions of dollars of withdrawals from crypto exchanges and untold loss of capital in the panic selling of the last week.  This has led many leading analysts in the crypto world to call for strong government regulation to re-establish trust before the entire crypto space implodes.

In energy news, Natural Gas prices plunged (5.5%) Friday as traders were trying to figure out how to interpret a blizzard of tweets that have since been called false and disinformation by the target of the tweets.  Essentially, the original tweet said that the major natural gas terminal (Freeport LNG) would remain offline for at least months due to “cracked pipes” that resulted from a fire back in June.  (Markets had been counting on this major terminal coming back online to reduce inventory.)  If true, this would mean that US export of natural gas would be severely curtailed and US inventories of natural gas would skyrocket, lowering US prices for months.  However, Freeport has now said that tweet was false, the information did not come from them (even though the original tweet was made to look like a company announcement). Meanwhile, in Congress, Coal-backed Senator Manchin has now said he does not intend to hold a re-confirmation hearing for President Biden’s Energy Secretary. This is his petty response to Biden calling for the “end of dirty energy” in the last ten days prior to last week’s election.  Nonetheless, it could leave the Energy Dept. without a head for the foreseeable future.

In dividend news, these were the largest dividend increases for last week.  ADP hiked its dividend by 20.2% to $1.25/share ($5 annualized) to be paid on January 1 for the holders of record on December 8.  MAR raised its dividend by 33.3% to $0.40 ($1.60 annualized) per share payable December 30 for holders as of November 22.  AAON hiked its semi-regular dividend by 26% to $0.24 ($0.48 annualized) payable December 16 for holders of record on November 28.  PFSW declared a special $4.50 dividend payable on December 15 for holders as of November 30.  ROP bumped its dividend by 10.1% to $0.6825 per share ($2.73 annualized) payable Jan. 23 for owners as of January 6.

So far this morning, MT, BAM, AZN, USFD, RWEOY, BDX, NIO, DDS, TDG, KELYA, SBH, SLVM, and NICE all posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AEG, WRK, TPR, EPC, and EYE all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, PRMW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, WE and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that USFD and PRMW raised their forward guidance.  However, BDX, NIO, TPR, SBH, WE, and YETI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.70%), Taiwan (+1.19%), and Singapore (+1.01%) were the gainers.  Meanwhile, Japan (-1.065) Thailand (-0.85%), and South Korea (-0.34%) paced the rest of the region lower into losses.  In Europe, we see a similarly mixed picture at midday.  The FTSE (+0.26%), DAX (+0.37%), and CAC (+0.27%) are leading the region modestly higher, while 4-5 smaller exchanges are showing red in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.24% open, the SPY is implying a -0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.62% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are rising again at 3.899% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.34$ to $87.77/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  However, there are two Fed speakers scheduled (Brainard at 11:30 am and Williams at 6:30 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are QFIN, ACM, XRAY, and VNTR before the open. Then, after the close, NU reports.   

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get October PPI, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report. Then Wednesday, October Retail Sales, October Import/Export Price Indexes, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and a Fed speaker (Williams) report. On Thursday, we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Finally, on Friday, October Existing Home Sales are reported.

In earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from ARMK, BERY, ENR, AQUA, HD, SE, TME, VVV, WMT, AAP, and GSM.  Wednesday, ARCO, LOW, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, BBWI, CSCO, CPA, HP, HI, NVDA, and SONO report.  Then on Thursday, we hear from BABA, BJ, BV, DOLE, KSS, M, NTES, WB, AMAT, FTCH, GPS, KEYS, PANW, POST, ROST, WSM, and WWD report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from FL, JD, and SPB.

LTA Scanning Software

Over the weekend, it became clear that Democrats will retain control of the Senate, with a chance to expand their margin depending on the December Georgia runoff. In addition, control of the House still remains up in the air. (The expected “red wave” we were supposed to see last week, simply wasn’t a wave at all and while it looks more likely the GOP will control the House, it will be by razor-thin margins at best with 10 more races not decided.) Also, as mentioned above, the cryptocurrency implosion (and massive volatility) also became more clear, with allegations that the CEO of FTX had moved and used $10 billion in customer funds to his own trading company prior to the Friday default. (Criminal investigations are now ensuing.) Then, overnight at the G20 summit, President Biden met with Chinese President Xi in a bid to cool tensions between the two largest economies in the world. In not unrelated news, China announced a 16-point plan to boost its real estate sector on Monday.

With that background, premarkets now look modestly red and are very extended (especially the QQQ). So, do some serious thinking before you chase any bullish moves. We know that price moves in a lightning bolt, zig-zag pattern. And, once again, at the moment, our zig is sorely in need of a zag if this is going to be a sustained move higher. Finally, remember that we get another read on the US consumer this week as the big retail names all report. Markets may wait on that news and give outsized importance to individual retail reports this week. So, beware of volatility.

So, continue to be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. Remember it’s 100 times more important to avoid big mistakes than it is to pick big winners. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…in that situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! And there is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) just because you’ve had a win. Finally, keep in mind that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real. So, you have to treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VZ, PFE, FDX, INTC, ANET, NFLX, PLUG, PM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

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