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Earnings Strong Ahead of Big Tech Names

July 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Monday, markets made a very slight gap lower a the open. However, the bulls took over for the day, thumbing their nose at the Asian markets and driving to new all-time highs. The large caps put in nice Marubozu-type candles, while the QQQ printed a more “large body Spinning Top” type of candle. As mentioned, the 5^th consecutive up day ended in new all-time high closes for all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.24%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.08%. The VXX fell 1.5% to 29.87 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 57.26. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.293% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $72.16/barrel.

After the close, TSLA reported a massive beat with 50% higher earnings and almost $700 million more in revenue for the quarter than analysts had expected. The $1.14 billion ins net income was up ten-fold from one year prior and this was the first time the company exceeded $1 billion net income for any quarter. UHS was another notable beat last night. The healthcare company reported 40% more earnings than expected on 10% more revenue than expected. However, it should be noted that all the major earnings were beats Monday evening.

In other stock news, AAL warned about fuel shortages last evening. The company said it is one of several airlines facing delays in fuel supply due to a lack of truck drivers. DAL acknowledged some such fuel-related delays in smaller Western airports, but LUV claimed it has not seen any such delays yet. AAL told CNBC that it expects such delays to continue through August as peak vacation travel takes place. The company spokesman said that pilots had been asked to conserve fuel although it did not say what impact conservation might have on “flight on time” metrics.

Once again, earnings seem to be extremely good this morning. Every major reporting stock put in beats, with the lone exceptions on PHM, which missed on both lines. UPS beat on both lines as did GE, MMM, RTX, BSX, WM, ROK, SWK, etc. ADM reported huge beats on both lines. So, it appears inflation is not impacting earnings, perhaps with the exception of homebuilders who had not hedged and bought too much lumber at the top of the recent commodity highs.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red again as the Chinese markets continue to be routed as investors fear a mass exodus of Western capitol. Hong Kong (-4.22%), Shenzhen (-3.67%), and Shanghai (-2.49%) led the region lower. Japan (+0.49%) on Olympics euphoria and Australia (+0.50%) were the only appreciable gainers. In Europe, markets are red across the board with the lone exception of a flat Russia. The FTSE (-0.28%), DAX (-0.33%), and CAC (-0.12%) are typical of the region at mid-day. However, Portugal (-1.33%) is leading the way lower. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, mostly flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.19% open, the SPY implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.09% open at this hour.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday are June Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). However, it is another heavy earnings day, with a slew of major tech companies reporting after the close. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include MMM, AN, ADM, ABG, BSX, CNC, CIT, GLW, CEQP, DTE, ECL, ENTG, FSV, FISV, GE, GPK, HUBB, IVZ, IQV, JBLU, LW, LECO, MLCO, MSCI, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, RTX, ROK, ST, SHW, SIRI, SWK, TECK, TRU, UPS, WM, and XRX. Then after the close, AMD, GOOGL, AAPL, ASH, AXS, BXP, BYD, CHRW, CAKE, CHE, CB, CSGP, EHC, WIRE, EQR, GOOG, THG, IEX, JBT, JNPR, LBRT, MAT, MXIM, MSFT, MDLZ, NBR, NLOK, OLN, OVV, PFG, SBUX, SYK, TDOC, TER, and V reports.

With so much of the market-leading tech sector reporting after the close, the Fed statement coming Wednesday, and with markets at all-time highs; logic would call for a pullback or pause. However, the bulls have been ignoring logic and continuing to push this last week. So, do not count on a rational market. The economy continues to be strong and companies have so far been able to pass along inflation (or at least found ways to offset it to improve earnings). That said, don’t be caught off guard by a calm day in front of big tech and the Fed.

If you are taking positions today, be nimble or hedged. It’s not known how Mr. Market will react to even the hint of bad news from tech leadership or some non-dovish hint from the Fed. So, manage your current positions first. Don’t chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you can control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GE, JYNT, TSLA, NTNX, AA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Earnings Hot And So Are China Relations

July 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls kept their foot on the gas Friday with a half percent gap higher and then follow-through all morning. The afternoon turned into a sideways grind, but the SPY and QQQ closed very near the highs and the DIA ended up as a white-bodied Spinning Top candle. On the day, SPY gained 1.03% (new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.66% (new all-time high close), and QQQ gained 1.17% (new all-time high close). The VXX fell half of a percent to 30.33 and T2122 rose back to near the overbought territory at 76.24. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.281% and Oil (WTI) rose a third of a percent to $72.17.

GM filed a lawsuit against F on Saturday. The suit was filed on behalf of GM’s “Cruise” driverless taxi subsidiary and is intended to block F from using the name “BlueCruise” for their “hands-free driving technology.” In other stock news, PM told the British press that it plans to stop selling cigarettes in the UK within 10 years as the company attempts to pivot its business. This falls in line with the company’s recent acquisitions in the Pharma space.

A US-Chinese meeting ended in a tense manner early today. The Chinese characterize the relationship as “now at a stalemate and facing serious difficulties.” As a backdrop, the Biden Administration has taken steps against US companies doing business in the Chinese province where it is alleged that an entire minority population of Uighurs are being and otherwise abused. At the same time, China has cracked down on Chinese businesses that have been listed in US capital markets. Apparently, the Chinese submitted 2 lists (one of “errors” that must be corrected immediately and one of the issues Beijing sees as very important) and the Americans “raised concerns” as well. This shifting and tense relationship is taking shape in the new “near-peer” world as China ascends on the back of decades of strong economic growth.

As we start the week, here are some of the major data points that will drop. Tuesday, we see June Durable Goods Orders and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence. Then on Wednesday we get June Trade Balance, June Retail Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories and crucially the Fed decisions, statement and presser. On Thursday we see Q2 GDP, Jobless Claims, and June Pending Home Sales. Finally, Friday brings the PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Costs, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly down, especially the Chinese exchanges. This came amidst a Chinese crackdown on Hong Kong-listed and US-listed companies including in the paid education, eCommerce, and social media spaces. Hong Kong (-4.13%), Shenzhen (-2.65%), and Shanghai (-2.34%) paced the losses. Japan (+1.04%) was the lone gainer. In Europe, markets are a little more reticent but are mostly lower in modest trading so far today. The FTSE (-0.24%), DAX (-0.43%), and CAC (-0.29%) are typical, but there are half a dozen modestly green exchanges across the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mildly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.36% open, the SPY is implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.11% open.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is June New Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CHKP, HAS, LII, LMT, OTIS, PETS, and RPM before the open. Then after the close, AMP, AMKR, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CLS, CR, FFIV, LOGI, PKG, RRC, TSLA, TFII, TBI, and UHS reports.

Despite the tense atmosphere between China and the US, there was little headline news to move markets. That said, stocks that do large parts of their business in China or that are Chinese and listed here are at risk today. With that said, earnings continue to be very strong, and most eyes will be watching the Fed tea leaves for later this week. Also bear in mind that we sit at all-time highs, coming off a strong 4-day run to end last week. So, a little pause or pullback is due soon.

Manage your current positions first and take your time early. Do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you can control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, one week, or one month.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SOS, JYNT, LCI, DHI, FSR, ARKK, BMBL, CVS, FLGT, TLIS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Earnings Stay Red Hot Despite Inflation

July 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday was another win for the bulls as we saw a small gap higher in the SPY and QQQ followed by the bulls controlling action. Large-cap indices were more undecided, both closing as Doji-type candles, but the QQQ was strong closing as a Marubozu (shaved head) candle at a new all-time high close. On the day, QQQ gained 0.66%, SPY gained 0.23%, and DIA gained 0.08%. The VXX rose slightly to 30.47 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 56.60. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.263% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to $71.69/barrel.

During the day, major Internet outages (caused by AKAM equipment running in the AMZN AWS services) took many brokers and major business websites offline for over an hour. Interestingly, it was the big tech names, led by AMZN, that buoyed markets all day long. This was the third major Internet outage in the last few months.

After the close, INTC, TWTR, COFO, CE, and RHI all posted beats on both lines. VRSN beat on revenue but missed on earnings. And FE beat on earnings but missed on revenue. Overall, another very strong day of earnings reports. However, INTC also guided much lower for Q3 (forecasting 55% margins vs. 59.2% in Q2), citing supply constraints.

So far this morning, AXP, HON, RF, ROP, and SLB all reported beats on both lines. NEE beat on earnings but came up just short on revenue. However, KMB stood out as missing estimates on both lines. The bottom line is that earnings remain very strong this quarter. Despite all the talk of inflation, strong profit margins indicate that most of the major companies retain are able to pass along more than the cost increases they are experiencing.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. China paced the losses with Shenzhen down 1.53% and Hong Kong down 1.45%. Gains were modest with Japan (+0.58%) leading the way. In Europe, Markets are green across the board with the lone exception of Russia (-0.29%). The FTSE (+0.74%), DAX (+0.86%), and CAC (+0.95%) are typical for the continent, but a few of the smaller exchanges show gains over 1%. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.48% open, the SPY implying a +0.42% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.39% open. The dollar is up this morning while 10-year bond yields are unchanged and commodities are generally lower early.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AIMC, AXP, GNTX, HON, KMB, NEE, RF. ROP, and SLB before the open. Then after the close, there are no scheduled reports.

Even with a brutal day to start the week, the bulls have clearly been in charge for the rest of the week. And it looks like we’ll see yet another green gap at the open today. So the momentum remains to the upside. However, we seem to be feeling undecided at least in the large-caps as the tech-led, lockdown-type market conditions are back in force. Be wary of “gap and fade” volatility. We are at or near all-time highs and there should be no hurry to chase the gap.

Manage your current positions first and take your time early. The first few minutes of the day is very likely not the key to your success, but it is the time of maximum volatility as overnight orders clear and the big boys start putting down their real bets. So, do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and repeatedly taking those singles and doubles. Limiting losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Also, remember this is Friday. Don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the 2-day new cycle when markets are closed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TBIO, VLRS, AAP, BRKR, LSI, EW, SPLK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Earnings Are Strong But Fears Still Lurk

July 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Wednesday large caps gapped slightly higher and the QQQ gapped slightly lower. However, in a slow grinding way, it was the bull’s day again after the open. This left all 3 major indices with nice white candles that closed very near the highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.80%, DIA gained 0.84%, and QQQ gained 0.77%. The VXX fell more than 6% to 29.94 and T2122 moved into the overbought territory at 84.00. 10-year bond yields jumped back up to 1.295% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 4.5%, the largest gain in 3 months, back up to $70.20/barrel. The dollar was down on the day and commodities were generally higher.

During the day cryptocurrencies rallied. This came after both Elon Musk (CEO of TSLA) and Jack Dorsey (CEO of TWTR) endorsed cryptocurrencies and talked up a bullish case for them. Musk said that SPCE owns Bitcoin (markets already knew that TSLA still owns some of the cryptocurrency) and Dorsey went so far as to “hope” Bitcoin can bring world peace. On the day Bitcoin closed back above $32,000.

After the close, GM announced that it will halt most of its full-size pickup production in North America due to the ongoing chip shortage. The shortage is expected to cost the company $110 billion in revenue for 2021. On the same issue, TXN pointed to the issue as well when it gave its revenue forecast going forward.

So far this morning, AAL, ABT, DHR, T, MMC, BIIB, DOW, DHI, FTB, DGX, ALLE, and SNA have all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines. NEW and AEP beat on earnings but came up shy on the revenue line. Finally, LUV beat on the revenue line but missed on earnings. So, as of now, it has been another very strong day of earnings reports.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Hong Kong (+1.83%), Indonesia (+1.78%), and Singapore (+1.29%) paced the gains. This came as the larger exchanges lagged, but still gained half of a percent or more. In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape with green across the board. The DAX (+0.89%) and CAC (+0.82%) are typical of the continent. However, the FTSE (+0.10%) lags. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open just on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.18% open. The dollar is a bit lower this morning and 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.30%.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and June Existing Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABB, ABT, ALK, ALLE, AAL, AEP, T, BIIB, BX, BCO, CLF, CROX, DHI, DHR, DPZ, DOW, FITB, FAF, FCX, GPC, HZO, MMC, NEM, NUE, ORI, POOL, BPOP, DGX, RS, SNA, SON, LUV, TPH, UNP, and WSO before the open. Then after the close, SAM, COF, CSL, CE, FE, INTC, RNR, RHI, SKX, SNAP, SIVB, TWTR, and WRB report.

The bulls showed strong follow-through on Wednesday. However, some resistance remains overhead. In addition, fear about the Delta variant and chip shortages are building again. On the other hand, earnings continue very strong and that has to be good news on the bullish side. In other words, the bulls have very short-term control, but the bullish trend has not been reestablished yet after putting in a lower-low. And fears tracing back to the pandemic have not been put completely to rest yet. Just, be cautious. Volatility and uncertainty make uncomfortable companions for traders.

Once again, remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading a volatile market is difficult at best. So, manage your current positions first and if you do trade, stay nimble and cautious. Do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Trading success is all about consistency and that means taking singles and doubles. Limiting losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Just keep piling up those trading goals met. Eventually, that will compound to a huge gain and in the meantime, you will sleep better.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ORCL, PTON, BCRX, T, MSFT, LI DQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Earnings Leads the Market News Today

July 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls turned the tables on the bears Tuesday. Whether it was a short squeeze or a reversal, markets put in a small gap higher, but then kicked into overdrive, following through on the rally that actually started the last half hour of Monday. This wiped out most of the losses from the previous day and left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices. However, just like Monday, markets changed direction the last 30 minutes of the day, this time selling off. On the day, SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 1.53%, and QQQ gained 1.16%. The VXX fell almost 9% to 31.97 and T2122 spiked from extremely oversold all the way up near the overbought territory at 76.19. 10-year bond yields jumped back up to 1.215% and Oil (WTI) climbed 1.36% to $67.32.

JNJ made news a couple of times during the day. First, it spiked on leaked news that a settlement will be announced Wednesday between JNJ and 2 drug distributors and most of the plaintiffs in the thousands of opioid lawsuits totaling $26 billion in requested damages. (It is reported that 40 states will agree to the settlement. This includes NY, whose Attorney General tweeted that the state would get over $1 billion from the settlement.) Secondly, late in the day, Bloomberg reported confirmation to a story from the weekend. Apparently, JNJ has hired a law firm to organize the “Texas 2-Step” spinoff of Johnson Baby Powder into a separate company that will then immediately file bankruptcy. This will shift liability for lawsuits related to the product containing carcinogens onto a bankrupt company and save JNJ potentially billions in damages.

After the close NFLX reported a beat on the revenue line, but missed on earnings. It also beat on net subscriber growth but lowered guidance for Q3. Meanwhile, CMG beat on both lines, with a significant beat on earnings ($7.46/share vs. $6.50/share est.). Finally, while UAL lost money, it lost less than expected and therefore, delivered a beat on both lines.

This morning ANTM. KO, HOG, JNJ, VZ and most of the other major earnings reports came in with beats on both the top and bottom line. Many, such as KO, raise full-year guidance as well. For their part, JNJ said it expects over $2.5 billion in Covid-19 vaccine sales in 2021 alone.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side. Shenzhen (+1.34%) and Shanghai (+0.78%) led gainers. Meanwhile, India (-0.76%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are strongly green across the board so far today. The FTSE (+1.63%), DAX (+0.77%), and CAC (+1.27%) are typical for the continent at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and modest open. The DIA is implying a +0.35% open, the SPY implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.21% open. 10-year bond yields are up this morning to 1.237% with the dollar slightly stronger and commodities mixed in premarket trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ANTN, ASML, BKR, KO, CMA, HOG, HCSG, IPG, JNJ, KNX, LAD, MTB, NDAQ, NTRS, NVS, NVR, RCI, SAP, STX, and VZ before the open. Then after the close, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, GGG, ICLR, KALU, KMI, LSTR, LVS, OMF, PLXS, SEIC, STC, FTI, THC, TXN, UFPI, and WHR report.

The bulls clearly showed up with strength Tuesday. However, that give back the last 30 minutes of the day certainly made it feel like much of the strength came from short-covering, with the squeezers taking profit at day end after sticking it to the squeezees all day. Technically, we filled the gaps in the QQQ and SPY, but potential resistance remains overhead in the form of prior trend lines and previous highs/lows. So, be careful trading in a still-undecided and volatile market.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading a volatile market is difficult at best. So, manage your current positions first and if you do trade, stay nimble and cautious. Do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Trading success is all about consistency and that means taking singles and doubles. Unsettled markets is when we should be playing “small ball,” limiting losses and taking profits when we get them. Just keep piling up those trading goals met.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NOK, MS, XLV, BCRX, CHHWY, ORCL, HD, PTON, UVXY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

US Looks to Green Open After Rough Day

July 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Monday was a brutal day unless you were a bear. A gap down of well in excess of 1% led to follow-through on the large caps and then a sideways grind along the bottom in all 3 major indices. However, a late-day rally across the board did pull us up off the lows. This left us with cap-down Spinning Top (indecisive) candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.44%, DIA lost 1.94%, and QQQ lost 0.82%. The VXX gained 14% to 34.89 and T2122 dropped deep into the oversold territory at 1.93. 10-year bond yields were absolutely hammered (as buyers flooded into bonds), falling to 1.194% while Oil (WTI) got crushed by 7.4% to $66.51.

After hours, IBM beat on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported its strongest revenue growth in 3 years. JBHT reported similar beats on both lines. However, PPG missed on earnings while beating on the revenue front.

In other stock news, GM confirmed it will offer a third electric truck. This one will be a full-sized electric pickup and will sell under the “GMC Sierra” line. AMC also announced it is adding to its Los Angeles region market presence by taking over two existing theatre locations (a 14-screen and an 18-screen) in the city. And, of course, AMZN CEO Jeff Bezos heads to space this morning with a launch 9 am eastern launch.

Yesterday Treasury Sec. Yellen told regulators they needed to act quickly to control cryptocurrencies and decide how a “dollar-pegged stablecoin” would be regulated. Then this morning cryptocurrencies took another hit as Bitcoin slipped below $30,000 at 6:30 am. The other major cryptocurrencies also took a hit in sympathy.

Overnight, Asian markets were red again, but with a little less energy today. Taiwan (-1.46%), Singapore (-1.30%), and Thailand (-1.10%) paced the losses. There were no appreciable gains in the region. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest trading so far Tuesday. The FTSE (+0.13%), DAX (-0.13%), and CAC (+0.25%) are typical of indecision across the continent. The only significant move has been by Norway (+1.22%) as of mid-day. At 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modest gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.57% open, the SPY implying a +0.50% open, and the QQQ implying a + 0.52% open. The dollar is also slightly higher this morning, while 10-year bond yields are down just a bit to 1.184% (but recovering from overnight lows) and commodities are showing modest strength this morning.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to June Building Permits and June Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include VLVLY, ALLY, CFG, DOV, HAL, HCA, KEY, MAN, OMC, PM, SBNY, SYF, SNV, TRV, and UBS before the open. Then, after the close, AIR, AGR, CNI, CMG, IBKR, ISRG, NFLX, RXN, RUSHA, SNBR, and UAL report.

The fear of a Covid resurgence economic downturn, coupled with inflation forcing the Fed’s hand to stop easing remains the nightmare scenario on Wall Street. On the financial networks this morning, the talk is of companies possibly starting to lower or being afraid to give forward guidance due to the Delta variant. However, yesterday’s lower wicks and today’s premarket green indicate the bulls have not fled the market yet. To put it in a broader context, all three major indices have only pulled back about 3% from their all-time high closes. So, as bad as yesterday was for the bulls, it is hardly a “the end is near” situation yet.

The bullish trends are broken in the major indices. However, we do not have a new bearish trend in place yet. So, be vary careful. Trading an undecided market is difficult at best. Manage your current positions first and remember that you don’t have to trade every day. If we do get a Bearish trend, remember that those moves tend to happen fast and be over quick. So, do not chase and remain nimble. Stick with your trading rules, don’t bail on your trade plans, and maintain discipline. Trading success is all about consistency and that means taking singles and doubles as well as cutting your losses short.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LLY, XSPA, BNGO, PTON, EBAY, CHWY, OEG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

OPEC+ Deal and JNJ Doing the Texas 2-Step

July 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Friday was the bears day. A modest gap higher was met by immediate and all-day selling as options prepared to expire. This left us with ugly black candles in all 3 major indices that closed near the lows of the day. The DIA printed a Bearish Engulfing candle, the SPY printed a Bearish Engulfing of a Doji, and the QQQ just printed an ugly black candle. On the day, SPY lost 0.78%, QQQ lost 0.81%, and DIA lost 0.91%. The VXX rose 4% to 30.55 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 17.03. The 10-year bond yield was flat at 1.30% and Oil (WTI) fell three-tenths of a percent to $71.45/barrel.

During the day Friday, the Treasury Department announced that Sec. Yellen will meet with the President’s Working Group to discuss “stablecoins.” This meeting will include Fed. Chair Powell, the FDIC, Office of the Comptroller and various US Regulators. The meeting will essentially discuss how a US digital currency can be pegged to the dollar and how other cryptocurrencies can be controlled and made less volatile. Ostensibly, the idea is to mitigate market risks (to companies) caused by volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and Ethereum. V has already announced they will support payments made using a dollar-pegged stablecoin.

On Sunday, Reuters reported that JNJ is considering spinning off its “Johnson’s Baby Powder” business that would then immediately seek bankruptcy. The idea is to offload potentially massive litigation liability related to JNJ talc business (the Supreme Court refused to hear the JNJ appeal to a $2 billion finding in one case already) amid claims the products contained asbestos and other carcinogens. This strategy has been used before to hide from liability, in fact it has been used so often it was given the name “the Texas Two-Step Bankruptcy.”

OPEC+ held a short-notice meeting this weekend amid agreement on increasing the production limits of various members. The deal that passed will end oil production limits by September 2022, while immediately increasing production by 400,000 barrel per day per month. The IEA estimates there will be a 1.5 million barrel per day deficit during the second half of 2021. This would indicate a deficit (and likely elevated prices the rest of 2021.)

Overnight, Asian markets were red almost across the board. However, the results were very mixed. Shanghai (-0.01%) and Malaysia (-0.16%) joined Shenzhen (+0.14%) on the better side of performance. Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.84%), Singapore (-1.30%), and Japan (-1.25%) paced the low end of performance. In Europe, markets are down sharply across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (-2.01%), DAX (-2.15%), and CAC (-2.17%) are typical of the continent but the range is wide from Athens (-3.43%) to Denmark (-1.21%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap lower. The DIA is implying a -1.02% open, the SPY is implying a -0.83% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.62% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AN, CALM, PLD, and TSCO before the open. Then, after the close, CCK, IBM, JBHT, PPG, STLD, and ZION report.

There was a rise in Covid cases in every state over the last week (by 50% on average), a reintroduction of masking mandates in some locations, and continued disdain for vaccinations in some populations. (Notably, the contempt toward vaccination is more prevalent in red states, as there is a decided political view of mitigation in the country.) So, markets are looking bleak to start the week, hit with the twin fears of inflation on one side and lower economic activity (driven by Covid) on the other. This looks to be leading to a clear break of trend on a Monday morning.

With the longer-term bullish trend broken in the QQQ and being tested in both large-cap indices, it’s time to press pause and rethink. Manage your current positions first and remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Bearish moves tend to happen fast and be over quick. So, do not chase and remain nimble. Stick to your trading rules, don’t bail on your trade plans, and maintain your discipline. Remember, success is all about consistency and at a time of market direction change that can mean taking smaller lumps to avoid big ones.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

INTC Making Moves and PFE Settles Suit

July 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday was a divergent day in the markets. The DIA gapped down half a percent, the SPY gapped down a third of a percent, and the QQQ opened flat. From there, the DIA rallied on the day, putting in a strong white candle that closed new the highs as a Piercing candle. The SPY fluctuated all day and ended up as a gap-down Doji. And the QQQ put in an ugly black candle, but seemed to fine support at the trendline and left a large lower wick. On the day, DIA gained 0.15%, SPY lost 0.34%, and QQQ lost 0.70%. The VXX gained 1.5% to 29.33 and T2122 climbed, but remains in the oversold territory at 18.95. 10-yeat bond yields fell to 1.301% and Oil (WTI) fell a third of a percent to $71.42.

After hours, Treasury Sec. Yellen told CNBC that she expects several more months of rapid inflation. However, she said that ultimately, she expects prices to fall back to normal levels in 2022. The main concern she voiced was that lower-income Americans will be priced out of the housing market by home prices that are rising at more than double the CPI.

The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that INTC is in talks to buy Global Foundries. Global Foundries is privately owned and is by far the largest low-end semiconductor manufacturer. Their chips go into most cars, consumer electronics, and industrial machinery. While not a true direct competitor to TSM and INTC in the higher-end computer chip space, there is enough overlap to cause competitive waves, especially in the long run.

In other stock news from Thursday night, PFE has agreed to pay $345 million to settle an EpiPen price-hike lawsuit. AAL also canceled the leave of 3,300 flight attendants (furloughed during the pandemic) and announced it will hire 800 more by March 2022 in order to meet travel demand. In addition, TSLA CEO Elon Musk admitted that there is a chance the company’s new “cybertruck” will be a flop, saying that he doesn’t care because he loves the design. Finally, Chinese phone maker Xiaomi has overtaken AAPL to become the second-largest cell phone manufacturer behind Korea’s SSGFF (Samsung).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side with Shenzhen (-1.30%), Japan (-0.98%), and Hong Kong (-0.77%) pacing the losses. Meanwhile, Indonesia (+0.43%) and Singapore (+0.39%) were what passed for the leading gainers. In Europe, markets are also mixed but leaning to the downside on modest trading. The FTSE (+0.11%), DAX (-0.14%), and CAC (-0.54%) are a good indication of the spread on the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, but modestly green open. The DIA is implying a +0.11% open, the SPY implying a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.18% open.

Major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to June Retail Sales (8:30 am), May Business Inventories and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ALV, SCHW, ERIC, FHN, KSU, and STT all before the open. There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.

Markets look like they will open just on the green side of flat today. The dollar and 10-year bond yields have both ticked up overnight with commodities mixed. (The metals are down, but Ag commodities are higher.) So, we look to end the first week of Q2 earnings reports with mostly great results so far, but concern about inflation. Markets remain very near all-time highs and look extended. However, none of the 3 major indices have broken their trend yet.

The odds still favor sticking with the trend in terms of overall posture. With the long and mid-term trends remaining bullish, don’t get too far out on the bearish side of things yet. However, it’s tough to get too long here either. So, remember you don’t have to trade every day and focus on your open positions first. Don’t chase new positions and remain nimble. Stick to your trading rules, keep taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. Remember, success is all about consistency…not sporadic big wins. Also, don’t forget its Friday. So, pay yourself and get ready for the 2-day weekend news cycle.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

China Reports Slowing GDP Growth

July 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

Despite much higher-than-expected producer prices (wholesale inflation), markets gapped up on Wednesday. However, the rest of the intraday action was a sideways grind with a slightly bearish trend. This left us with black Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices. In fact, the QQQ closed at another all-time high, despite the black body. On the day, SPY gained 0.18%, DIA gained 0.15%, and QQQ gained 0.18%. This all happened on very narrow breadth as a handful of FAANG stocks kept markets green on the day. (AAPL in particular had a tremendous day on heavy volume, closing at another new all-time high.) VXX fell over 2% to 28.91 and T2122 fell further into the oversold territory at 16.73. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) dropped 3.36% to $72.72 on news that OPEC+ had reached a deal that will raise their production quotas significantly.

As expected, Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the FOMC can wait before it starts to ease bond purchases, let alone taking rate action, despite surging inflation data. He stuck to the story that indications are that the inflationary surge will be transitory and that the economy is still a long way off from reaching the “substantial further progress” bar the committee has set before changing policy. Powell testifies again before the Senate this morning.

Last night China reported that its GDP grew 7.9% in Q2. This was lower than the expected 8.1% growth for the quarter. In other data released, Chinese retail sales jumped 12.1% in June (versus an 11% increase expected). And Chinese Industrial output also rose 8.3% year-on-year in June, versus the analyst estimates of a 7.8% increase. As mentioned yesterday, this would seem to indicate the Chinese recovery was losing steam in Q2, but came on strong in June, reacting to the newest Chinese stimulus policies.

US Consumer debt soared in Q1, reaching an all-time high of $14.64 trillion. The increase came despite average credit card balances have declined by the second-largest amount on record. (Only 5.63% of the total is credit card debt, which is the lowest percentage since records have been kept.) This paradox seems to be because there is a huge amount of student loan debt and increases in home-equity balances as consumers lock in ultra-low-rate debt and auto loans also soared (despite price increases). While most of the major banks have reported blowout quarters, BAC got hammered Wednesday after reporting it had lower than expected interest income.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green on the Chinese data. Shanghai (+1.02%), Taiwan (+1.06%), and Indonesia (+1.13%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Japan (-1.15%) was an outlier to the downside, with the other three losses in the region being modest. However, in Europe, we are seeing significant losses across the board so far today. The FTSE (-0.84%), DAX (-1.08%), and CAC (-0.88%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a red open as well. The DIA is implying a -0.59% open, the SPY implying a -0.45% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.09% open an hour in front of the data dump at 8:30 am. At this point, the dollar is slightly higher and 10-year bond yields are falling again at 1.327%. Commodities are mixed, with Oil down almost 2% and metals unchanged to slightly higher.

Major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Import/Export Price Index, Weekly Jobless Claims, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), June Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Fed Chair Powell testifies again (9:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BK, CTAS, MS, PGR, TSM, TFC, USB, UNH, and WIT all before the open. Then, after the close, AA and WAL report.

It looks like the bears will make at least the first move today, trying to reverse the trend after yesterday’s indecisive Spinning Top candles. The Chinese data did not help, but Jobless Claims and Manufacturing indexes at 8:30 may well end up calling the tune early. Also, remember that earnings are underway with everything reporting so far this morning coming in as beats to the upside. Markets are still sitting near all-time highs, look extended, and are looking for direction. While it would be unlikely Fed Chair Powell would say anything new relative to his testimony to the other chamber yesterday, he does testify again this morning. So be aware of that potential driver as well.

Focus on your open positions first, don’t chase new ones, and remain nimble. The odds still favor sticking with the trend in terms of overall posture. And the long and mid-term trends remain bullish and have not been broken yet. So, stick to your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. It is all about your decisions. Act with intention…don’t just react emotionally. Remember it is consistency that remains the key to long-term success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PM, LB, CEIX, TD, CLX, CSCO, WMT, DIS, CCRN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Is Inflation or Earnings More Important

July 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped slightly lower Tuesday on a hotter than expected June CPI number. However, they rallied from there to new highs before giving back the gains in the afternoon and closing near the lows. This left us with Shooting Star-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day SPY lost 0.34%, DIA lost 0.29%, and QQQ was dead flat. The VXX gained over a percent to 29.59 and T2122 fell all the way back to just inside the oversold territory at 19.30. 10-year bond yields spiked sharply to 1.42% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.6% to $75.30/barrel.

As mentioned, the Consumer Inflation numbers jumped the most in years. However, markets reacted very mildly to the news. Among the biggest movers by category, Car and Truck rental prices skyrocketed 88% year-on-year while gasoline and used cars both jumped 45% from a year ago.

This morning, weekly mortgage applications for new homes came in 8% above the prior week but were 29% lower than one year ago. However, refinancing applications spiked 20% on the week as buyers jumped on the recently falling interest rates.

In big bank news, after JPM’s blowout numbers Tuesday, this morning BAC missed expectations on revenue for Q2. BAC cited a drop in income due to lower interest rates over the quarter. However, the company did far exceed the earnings estimates of analysts ($1.03 actual vs $0.77 est.). On the other hand, C, WFC, BLK, and PNC all followed JPM’s lead in beating on both lines for the quarter…in some cases with blowout beats.

Overnight, Asian markets were red almost across the board. The only green came from Australia (+0.31%) and India (+0.26%). However, Shanghai (-1.07%), Shenzhen (-0.88%), and Hong Kong (-0.63%) were more representative of the region. Europe is following Asia’s lead so far today. While there are a few barely green exchanges, the FTSE (-0.52%), DAX (-0.17%), and CAC (-0.22%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green, if mostly flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.02% open, the SPY implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.36% open. 10-year bond yields and the dollar are also mildly lower in premarket, which should help commodities.

Major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to June PPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and Fed Chair Powell testifies at noon. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BAC, BLK, C, DAL, INFY, PNC, and WFC. Then, after the close, there are no major reports.

The rest of the world seemingly reacted poorly to yesterday’s hot CPI reading in the US. However, US markets mostly ignored the news or maybe gave more weight to the blowout earnings reports yesterday. So far today, earnings news is mostly positive in front of the PPI number. In this setting, markets are showing signs of weakness. If we get some follow-through on the Shooting Star-type candles, don’t be surprised by at least a short-term pullback. Markets are still sitting at all-time highs, look extended, and with the higher inflation numbers, we can expect more talk of Fed tapering. However, Bloomberg reported Fed Vice Chair Clarida told them the Fed would not have the new information they value most to adjust posture until year-end.

The odds still favor sticking with the trend in terms of overall posture. And the long and mid-term trends remain bullish. Focus on your open positions first, don’t chase new ones, and remain nimble. Stick to your trading rules, taking your profits, moving your stops, and maintaining your discipline. It is all about your decisions. So act mindfully and with intention…don’t just react emotionally. Consistency remains the key to long-term success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLF, QCOM, BX, VALE, WMT, TZA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching