On Monday, markets gave us a modestly bearish start.  SPY opened down 0.14%, DIA opened 0.14% lower, and QQQ opened down 0.18%. From there, all three major index ETFs slowly meandered modestly bullishly the rest of the day.  (With that said, DIA was much more volatile with a wave lower before really starting is modest rally.)  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three with SPY that could certainly be seen as Bullish Engulfing signals if you were to squint.  DIA retested its T-line (8ema) with the opening gap, but passed the test closing back above.  SPY and QQQ both closed at new all-time high closes (although neither of them took out Friday’s all-time intraday high).  It is also worth noting that if you draw it right (top across 3/28 and 5/23 candles), you could say SPY is right at the top edge of an ascending wedge.  This all took place on well below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.36%) and then Utilities (+1.01%) well out front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Communication Services (-0.77%) was by far the laggard sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.31%, DIA gained 0.21%, and QQQ gained 0.40%.  VXX was just on the red side of flat, closing at a very low 11.11 and T2122 climbed up out of its oversold territory, to close at 27.01.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields rose to reach 4.467% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.12% to close at $77.89 per barrel.  So, Monday was basically a drifting day, where traders were probably biding time until the CPI and Fed announcements on Wednesday.  We opened lower, following Europe (which was perhaps rattled by the gains of far-right parties across the EU and the snap elections called in France).  From there, prices really just drifted slowly upward the rest of the day.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday was the New York Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey results.  This came in a tick lower than the May reading at 3.2% (compared to May’s 3.3% expectation).  At the same time, the survey found that the three-year inflation expectation remained flat at 2.8%.  However, on a 5-year outlook the survey saw inflation expectations rise to 3% from April’s 2.8% projection.

In stock news, on Monday, VSTO rejected a takeover bid from MNC Capital (the offer was $39.50 per share).  The VSTO board said the MNC offer would not be superior to the deal to sell its sporting goods division to a Czechoslovakian group for $1.96 billion.  (Separately, VSTO also said it had rejected a $2 billion offer from KNIT.)  At the same time, activist investor Elliott Investment Mgmt. announced it had taken a $2 billion position in LUV with intentions of ousting the current CEO and other leadership. Later, MS made analyst news when it lowered AMD to hold while simultaneously starting new coverage of AVGO and saying Broadcom is “the strongest AI play.”  (AMD lost 4.49% while AVGO gained 2.41% on the day.)  At the same time, the UAW announced a new tentative deal had been reached with “Ultium Cells” (a joint venture between GM and Korean giant LG).  Later, ROG signed multi-year content licensing deals with WBD and CMCSA’s NBS Universal unit.  At the same time, Elon Musk, in his capacity as CEO of X, announced he would ban AAPL devices from the service if AAPL integrates OpenAI at an OS level. (This came after AAPL announced that OpenAI’s ChatGPT was coming to its Siri.)  Later, an Israeli financial news website reported that INTC is halting its $25 billion plant expansion in Israel.  After the close, Reuters reported that APOS and KD are in talks to make a joint buyout bid for DXC.  The article said they were targeting $22 to $25 per share for the offer.  (DXC spiked 11.48% on the day, somebody knew something, closing at $18.45/share.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal seeking to dismiss a lawsuit against META related to its misleading investors about the Cambridge Analytica data-harvesting scandal.  At the same time, the Supreme Court refused to hear KR’s appeal seeking to block GRUB from using the fork and knife logo, claiming it is too similar to a KR house brand logo.  Meanwhile, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 212k 2022 model SUV and pickup trucks over a software malfunction that may cause the electronic stability control systems to fail.  Later, the CA Attorney General sued the oil major firms (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, and COP), seeking to force those firms to give up the profits they made while also simultaneously deceiving the public about their contributing to climate change.  (This suit is seeking to be similar to the one that crushed the Tobacco industry decades ago.)  After the close, the full 11-judge panel of the US 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against UBER (who lost the original case, but won a 3-judge sub-set of the Appeals Court) on their case seeking to challenge a CA law that may force companies to treat drivers as employees rather than independent contractors.  Also after the close, the FDA Advisory Panel voted by 11-0 to recommend that LLY’s Alzheimer drug donanemab to receive full-use approval later this year.  (If approved, it would be the second Alzheimer’s drug approved to serve the 6 million US patients, along with BIIB’s Leqembi.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side with eight of the 12 exchanges in the region below water.  Australia (-1.33%) and Hong Kong (-1.04% were by far the biggest movers, leading the region lower.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.09%), DAX (-0.73%), and FTSE (-0.90%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 4.439% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $77.61 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to ASO.  Then, after the close, CASY and ORCL report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, May Core CPI, May CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, May Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Q2 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, May PPI, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from AVGO and PLAY.  On Thursday, KFY, SIG, ADBE, and RH report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, ECB President Lagarde sought to tamp down expectations after last week’s first rate cut since 2019.  She told a newspaper interview that the Central Bank may wait several meetings between rate cuts, saying that the downward path may be “non-linear.”  Elsewhere, Reuters reported Monday evening that an independent federal monitor has launched an investigation of UAW union President Fain over allegations of retaliation against other union leaders.  (Among the allegations is the claim of former UAW Secretary/Treasurer that she faced retaliation for refusing to authorize certain expenditures for Fain’s office.)

In other news, Bloomberg reported the results of their survey of public records of pharmacy chains.  The survey found that CVS had three times more safety recalls than either WBA or WMT over the past decade.  Among CVS’s incidents were recalling house branded child pain and fever medication for being made with contaminated water, children’s drugs that were made with adult potencies, and baby nasal sprays that were recalled because they were made on machines used to produce pesticides.

With that background, the bears are in control of the premarket at this point. All three major index ETFs opened the early session a bit lower and have followed through with black-body candles up to this point. DIA has recrossed below its T-line (8ema) in the premarket this morning. With that said, again, only the DIA is below its T-line as the other two, broader, index ETFs remain above their own. So, the Bulls have the upper hand in the short-term but certainly not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema) and the T2122 indicator is back in the lower end of its mid-range. The bottom line is that the market has room to run in either direction but the Bulls have just a little more slack to play with here. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red. AMD (+0.24%) leads the few gainers while their rival INTC (-0.58%) leads the more numerous losers. Don’t be surprised if we drift or vacillate ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and Fed news.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw stocks open modestly lower on stronger-than-expected May Payroll data.  SPY opened down 0.18%, DIA started down 0.10%, and QQQ opened 0.11% lower.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied, recrossing that modest gap and getting to highs at 10:50 a.m.  Then all three sold off for 20 minutes part way back to the lows before meandering sideways with a slight bullish trend reaching highs at about 1:25 p.m.  From there, all three had another sharp 20-minute move back lower and then bounced before selling off again the last hour.  This action gave us indecisive, Doji-like candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed white-body, high-wick Doji while the DIA printed a black-body, high-wick Doji.  All three remained above their T-line (8ema) with only DIA retesting.  However, SPY and QQQ also gave us new all-time highs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Basic Materials (-1.92%) way out in front leading the market lower.  At the same time, Financial Services (-0.32%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.12%, DIA lost 0.23%, and QQQ lost 0.09%.  VXX fell 1.24% to close at a very low 11.11 and T2122 dropped into oversold territory, closing at 13.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields surged higher to reach 4.434% and Oil (WTI) dropped 0.37% to close at $75.27 per barrel.  So, Friday was a non-committal day that essentially was flat, near the all-time highs in SPY and QQQ. At the same time, DIA continued its begrudging uptrend with its own flat day. On the week, SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained just 0.26%, and QQQ gained 2.72%.

In other market news, Gold fell by the most in two years on Friday, closing down 3.34%.  However, that was nothing compared to Copper which fell 4.94% and Silver which was down 6.69% on the day.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include May Avg. Hourly Earnings (Month-on-Month) came in a tick hotter than expected at +0.4% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and April’s +0.2% value). On a Year-on-Year basis, May Avg. Hourly Earnings were also up to 4.1% (versus the +3.9% forecast and the April +4.0% reading).  At the same time, May Nonfarm Payrolls showed much stronger job growth than predicted at +272k (compared to the +182k forecast and the April +165k number).  On the private side, May Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also stronger than anticipated at +229k (versus a forecast of +170k and the April +158k reading).  Meanwhile, we saw the May Participation Rate fall to 62.5% (compared to the previous value of 62.7%).  This all led to a May Unemployment Rate that ticked higher to 4.0% (versus the forecast and April number of 3.9%).  For context, that breaks an all-time record of 27 straight months with Unemployment under 4.0%.  Despite conspiracy theorists mistaken beliefs, this sure seems to check out since the recent JOLTs data also showed job openings at a 3-year low.  Later, April Consumer Credit came in much lower than predicted at $6.40 billion (compared to a $9.30 billion forecast but far above the March -$1.10 billion value).

In stock news, on Friday, TSLA released a software update for Chinese customers giving them detailed navigation information, including lane-level guidance.  (It was reported that BIDU was the supplier of the detailed map data TSLA used.)  At the same time, Korean giant Samsung Electronics suffered its first ever strike walk-out by employees.  28k employees rallied on the day, but it was nothing but a PR event since it was held on a public holiday in order to not impact the operations.  Later, SAVE said, perhaps ominously, Friday that it is not considering Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is encouraged by its own plan following the JBLU deal being killed.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that WBA had shelved its plans to IPO the Boots portion of its business.  However, WBA is still in talks to sell that Boots unit.  After the close, it was announced that KKR, CRWD, and GDDY will join the S&P 500 before the market open on June 24.  At the same time, RHI, CMA, and ILMN will be dropped by the S&P 500.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA issued a warning to owners of 463k KIA 2020-2024 Telluride SUVs, warning the customers to park outside and away from structures until KIA can complete recall repairs.  (The NHTSA said there are reports of under seat fires and melting engines as well as many reports of smoke.)  At the same time, a UK Court ruled that V and MA must face a set of lawsuits over the fees it charges British retailers.  Later, TSLA filed court documents seeking to pay only a tiny fraction of the legal fees of the lawyers who sued (first in 2018 with the case running until 2023) to reduce CEO Musk’s pay.  Those lawyers won, throwing out Musk’s $56 billion pay package.  The lawyers billed for $5.6 billion but TSLA is fighting the fees, seeking to pay only $13.6 million.  TSLA claims there was no value to the company since Musk has re-submitted his $56 billion pay package and seems to have the votes to get it past by shareholders.  (In other words, we are too stupid to take advantage of the court decision, so we should not need to pay the lawyers who won it.)  At the same time, a federal court ruled GOOGL will pay a paltry $2.3 million (which will be tripled per law) to cover damages and, as a result, won’t have to stand jury trial in its digital advertising antitrust case. Instead, the antitrust trial over GOOGL dominance of the digital ad market will be heard by the judge (not jury) on Sept. 9. 

Meanwhile, a federal judge ruled YELP may sue (for trademark infringement and unfair competition) a business review website that claimed businesses could pay Yelp to get artificially higher star ratings.  Later, after months of lobbying by automakers, the NHTSA said on Friday that it will increase federal truck and SUV fuel economy requirements only to 50.4 mpg (fleet average for each carmaker) for 2031.  This is BARELY above the previous 49mpg that was requirement for 2026.  (The NHTSA original proposal was to hike it to 58 mpg by 2031.)  It should be noted that cars will have to average 38 mpg by 2031, which is a 2% per year increase (not starting until 2027) from the current standard.  At the same time, the FCC requested a change of venue for the case challenging its reinstitution of net neutrality.  (The case was filed by the major telecom companies in Cincinnati, OH with the 6^th Circuit and the FCC has now requested moving the case back to Washington DC.)  After the close, the FDA approved GSK’s treatment for RSV for patients 50-to-59-years in age.  This expands the market which was previously limited to patients 60 and older.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with only three of 12 exchanges holding onto green territory.  Thailand (-1.06%), Shenzhen (-0.90%), and South Korea (-0.79%) led the region lower.  In Europe, the picture is even more bearish with all 15 bourses in the red at midday.  The CAC (-1.76%), on EU election results and PM Macron dissolving Parliament to call for snap elections, DAX (-0.66%), and FTSE (-0.34$) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, the SPY is implying a -0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.04% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are popping higher to 4.465% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.26% to $75.75 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, May Core CPI, May CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, May Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Q2 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, May PPI, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday ASO, CSAY, and ORCL report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AVGO and PLAY.  On Thursday, KFY, SIG, ADBE, and RH report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, C changed its Fed rate cut forecast on Friday.  Previously, C had expected a first cut in July, but after the May Payrolls Report, C moved that date to the September meeting.  Meanwhile, the Fedwatch tool showed that traders are pricing in only a 49% chance of a September rate cut with November having a 65% probability and December showing an 84.5% chance of a rate cut.  Elsewhere, Federal Reserve data released Friday showed that US Household Wealth hit a record $160 trillion in Q1 2024.  This was a 3.2% (or $3.8 trillion) increase over Q4’s record value.  Most of the gain came from the stock market rally. Separately, CNBC reported that the US created 600,000 new millionaires in 2023, a 7.3% increase in the total to 7.5 million people. (This was using the definition of millionaire as those with $1 million in investible assets, excluding primary residence, collectibles like art, or consumer durables.)

In other news, the Dept. of Energy announced Friday that it has sped up the purchase of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to take advantage of current lower oil prices.  The DoE issued two solicitations to buy 6 million barrels for September – December delivery.  This is a massive money-maker by the Biden administration which sold oil in 2022 for an average of $95 per barrel and is replenishing at an average of $77 per barrel.  (Current prices are well below that, so the new solicitations should lower the average even more.)  This is one of the few times the government ever made money.  Furthermore, it makes perfect sense since the US is the world’s largest oil producer, meaning we have much less reason to have a strategic reserve than when we were importing most of our oil in the 1970s.  Finally, the Port of Baltimore fully reopened on Saturday for the first time since the Francis Scott Key bridge was struck and collapsed, closing the main channels in the process.

With that background, it looks as if the market is tepidly bearish but largely undecided in the premarket. QQQ made the biggest move, gapping down a bit to start the early session but has rallied the most on a white-body candle. Meanwhile, SPY and DIA are printing Doji-type candles not too far below Friday’s close. The DIA has given back its T-line (8ema) at this point, but not by much. With that said, only the DIA is below its T-line as the other two, broader, index ETFs remain above theirs. So, the Bulls have the upper hand in the short-term but not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is in oversold territory. The bottom line is that the market has room to run in either direction but the Bulls have a little more slack to play with here. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split. AMD (-2.33%) is the biggest mover of that group. Also, don’t forget that today is NVDA’s first day of trading at the new 10-for-1 split price. (TC2000 still is not reflecting it correctly. It has the correct price, but is indicating a 90% move lower rather than this was a split.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were indecisive on Thursday.  SPY opened up 0.06%, DIA opened +0.04% higher, and opened up 0.16%.  From that point, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us indecisive, Spinning Top candles in all three.  The SPY printed a small-body, black-body, Spinning Top that stayed well above its T-line (8ema).  SPY also printed a new all-time high.  DIA printed a white-body Spinning Top that retested but stayed above its T-line.  Meanwhile, QQQ gave us a bit larger-body, black-body Spinning Top that stayed well above its T-line.  QQQ also printed a new all-time high.  This all happened on well-below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.41%) and Basic Materials (+0.40%) leading the market higher.  At the same time, Utilities (-0.98%) was by far the laggard sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.03%, DIA gained 0.20%, and QQQ lost 0.06%.  VXX fell 0.53% to close at a low 11.25 and T2122 fell but remains in the center of its mid-range, closing at 43.61.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell from the premarket highs to gain only slightly 4.283% and Oil (WTI) gained 2.01% to close at $75.57 per barrel.  So, Thursday was very much a wait-and-see day. Traders seem to have been waiting on the May Payrolls reports…or maybe the Fed meeting next week. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 229k (compared to a 220k forecast and the prior week’s 221k).  This resulted in Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims that were also higher than anticipated at 1,792k (versus a forecast and prior week reading of 1,790k).  At the same time, April Imports were up to $338.20 billion (compared to the March value of $327.00 billion).  Meanwhile, April Exports were also up to $263.70 billion (versus a previous reading of $257.60 billion).  Together, that gave us an April Trade Balance with an increased but lower than expected deficit of $74.60 billion (compared to forecast of -$76.20 billion but up from the March -$68.60 billion).  In terms of productivity, the Q1 Nonfarm Productivity was up but a tick lower than was predicted at +0.2% (versus a +0.3% forecast and far less than March’s MASSIVE +3.2% value).  We also saw a Q1 Unit Labor Cost that came in significantly below the estimates at +4.0% (compared to at +4.7% forecast but far above Q4’s +0.4%).  Then, after the close, the Fed’s Balance Sheet showed a $28 billion decrease from $7.284 trillion to $7.256 trillion. 

After the close, DOCU reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, MTN and NGL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MTN also lowered its forward guidance.

In stock news, on Thursday, NIO (Chinese electric vehicle maker) announced it now expects Q2 vehicle deliveries to more than double from the same quarter in 2023. (NIO said sales revenue will also more than double to about $2.3 billion.)  Later, stock analysts at JPM reported that AVGO has won a chip design contract for GOOGL’s next generation AI chips.  Those JPM analysts expect this to result in a 125% increase in revenue for AVGO’s TPU program in 2024 (to $8 billion).  At the same time, BA’s Starliner capsule safely docked with the International Space Station.  However, the event did not exactly go flawlessly as several of the capsule’s guidance thrusters failed during the docking.  Later, Swiss giant Nestle (NSRGY) announced it will buy the rights to MRCB’s first-ever “fecal transplant pill” (yeah, you read that right) for an undisclosed sum.  (The pills are an alternative to invasive surgery to transplant biotic fecal materials.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported HTZ is close to closing a deal to get $700 million in secured debt to offset the company’s electric vehicle debacle.  Later, META’s WhatsApp unit announced AI tools for businesses as it tries to monetize the popular encrypted chat service.  At the same time, PIPR announced it has agreed to buy a smaller competitor (Aviditi) for an unspecified sum.  Elsewhere, EMR announced it has agreed to sell its remaining 40% stake in a Copeland joint-venture with BX for $3.5 billion. Later, EADSY (Airbus) announced its May plane deliveries fell 16% from the same month in 2023, down to 53 aircraft. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, AMZN was hit with a $1.3 billion lawsuit by an organization representing small British retailers.  The suit alleges AMZN misused data from small retailer sales on its online marketplace to boost AMZN market share and profits from its own competing products.  Later, the FDA rescinded its June 2022 ban on Juul Lab’s e-cigarettes.  The move does not approve the products (final approval is still pending) but the move does place the Juul products back under scientific review.  At the same time, the NFL, and by relationship GOOGL, was hit with a multi-billion-dollar antitrust lawsuit over the legality of “NFL Sunday Ticket.”  The case started Thursday.  The basis is that NFL sold the rights to the package (out of market game viewing) to GOOGL for $2 billion and GOOGL’s YouTube unit sells the package to viewers for $449/year.  The plaintiffs claim the low cost of streaming, each team selling the package separately would offer a fairer market rather than the NFL having and giving a monopoly on the broadcasts to GOOGL. 

Elsewhere, the FTC and US Dept. of Justice reached a deal on Thursday that clears the way for antitrust investigations into MSFT, NVDA, and OpenAI related to artificial intelligence.  (NVDA has about 80% market share in the very lucrative AI chip market, allowing margins of 70%-80%.  Meanwhile, MSFT owns about 49% of OpenAI, which is the undisputed leader in the AI services space.)  Later, the US 6^th District Court of Appeals announced it will hear a series of telecom industry legal challenges to the FCC reinstatement of net neutrality, which is set to take effect on July 22.  At the same time, a federal jury acquitted British tech billionaire Mike Lynch who was accused of fraud related to his selling of his Autonomy company to HPQ for $11 billion in 2011.  After the close, the NTSB cited “incorrect assumptions” by an air traffic controller was the cause of a near-collision between jets owned by FDX and LUV in Austin TX in February 2023.  (The planes came within 170 feet of each other with the FDX jet forced to fly over the LUV jet on the runway.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Five of the 12 exchanges in the region were in the red, most notably New Zealand (-0.97%) and Shenzhen (-0.90%).  However, India, (+2.05%) and South Korea (+1.23%) led gainers and the region higher.  In Europe, we see a much weaker picture at midday.  Russia (+1.73%) stands out as the leading gainer (by 1.5%), while the CAC (-1.00%), DAX (-0.95%), and FTSE (-0.63%) lead 11 of the 15 bourses lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start.  The DIA implies a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a touch to 4.301% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.58% to $75.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Private Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, and May Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), and April Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close on Friday.

In miscellaneous news, the US Dept. Of Agriculture announced that cattle infected with avian flu (N5H1) have died in five states.  Bird flu has infected cattle in 80 herds in the US, across 10 states, since late March.  The worst of these seems to be MI, where 10% of infected herds did not recover and died.  Elsewhere, the leader of the “Meme stock” short-squeeze craze (who goes by the moniker “Roaring Kitty”) scheduled a YouTube livestream event for noon on Friday.  Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty’s real name) recently announced a $116 million investment in GME.  GME shares popped 47% on the day and another 17% in afterhours trading on this news.

So far this morning, GME did report misses on both the top and bottom lines.  This led to a huge move lower in the premarket, even after the massive gains on anticipation of the Roaring Kitty livestream today. (As of this report, GME is down 9.26% from Thursday’s close, but that is 30% off the afterhours highs.)

In other news, the Israeli invasion of Gaza (and Rafeh) continues as it appears Israeli PM Netanyahu is doing his best to kill the cease-fire / peace deal.  Thursday, Israel bombed another UN school (the 108^th UN facility Israel has bombed since the October 7 attacks by Hamas).  The IDF claimed to have killed three Hamas leaders and as many as “20 or 30” Hamas militants.  However, reporters only saw 14 children and a dozen women among the dead with a similar number of women and children among the injured arriving at the hospital afterward.  (For what it is worth, those arriving at the hospital for aid reported that only refugees were in the school which was converted into a shelter.)  Israel also stopped more than 1,000 aid trucks (food, medical supplies, tents and diapers, and fuel type cargos) at the border as they use food as a weapon.  Predictably, Palestinian supporters, including the Houthi who have disrupted Red Sea and Suez Canal trade routes with attacks on commercial shipping, vowed to meet the Israeli escalations with their own escalation.  Needless to say, it does not look like the shipping problems (and skyrocketing container rates that result) will abate anytime in the near future.

With that background, it looks as if the market is undecided ahead of the May Payrolls and Unemployment data. All three major index ETFs have wobbled around the break-even area. All three are just on the green side of flat at the moment but not by a substantial amount. All three are also sporting indecisive candle types. With that said, all three are above their T-line (8ema). So, the Bulls are in control of the market in the short-term. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator also remains in the center of its mid-range. The bottom line is that the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are green, led by META and INTC (both +0.36%). However, the two biggest dogs NVDA (-24%) and TSLA (-0.42%) are the red names on that list. Also, keep in mind that this is Friday and next week will have another Fed meeting. So, prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t be surprised if markets give us a “Wait on the Fed” look after the May data report.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday gave us a gap higher as traders liked the weaker-than-expected May ADP Employment report.  (Presumably, this was because they interpret that as a slowing economy and that moves us closer to a Fed rate cut.)  SPY gapped up 0.45%, DIA gapped up 0.28%, and QQQ gapped up 0.81%.  From there, SPY and QQQ ground to the side with a modest bearish bent for 45 minutes before starting a steady rally that lasted until all day and accelerated the last 10 minutes, closing at the highs. This action took SPY and QQQ to well above their T-line (8ema) and new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.  Meanwhile, DIA sold off from the open for the same 45 minutes, but recrossed its gap and more before starting its own weaker rally that lasted until 2:30 p.m. with a very modest selloff the last 90 minutes of the day.  This action gave us significant gap-up, large-body white candles with small lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, DIA printed a gap-up, long-legged Doji that also closed back up above its T-line.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+2.59%) way out in front leading the rest of the market higher.  At the same time, Utilities (-0.32%) was the laggard and only appreciable down sector.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 1.18%, DIA gained 0.26%, and QQQ gained 2.02%.  VXX fell 1.82% to close at a low 11.31 and T2122 rose but remains in the center of its mid-range, closing at 59.57.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped sharply again to 4.281% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.23% to close at $74.15 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a strong day for the Bulls with markets appearing to embrace a lower ADP number (possibly believing that brings a Fed rate cut closer).  Then other data seemed more positive and that too was met with buying.  However, the other driver was NVDA (+5.16%), which surpassed $3 trillion in market cap, passing AAPL to become the second most valuable company behind MSFT (+1.91%).  This happened on just below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ but well below-average volume in the DIA. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included May ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in lower than expected at +152k, a four-month low (compared to a forecast of +173k and April’s +188k).  Later, the May S&P Global Services PMI was up and as expected at 54.8 (versus a 54.8 forecast and an April reading of 51.3).  At the same time, the May S&P Global Composite PMI was a tick higher than anticipated at 54.5 (compared to the 54.4 forecast and up from April’s 51.3 value).  Later, the May ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was a tick lower than predicted at 47.1 (versus the 47.2 forecast but up from April’s 45.9 reading).  The headline May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was stronger than anticipated at 53.8 (compared to a 51.0 forecast and April’s 49.4 value).  At the same time, the May ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index was lower than expected at 58.1 (versus the 59.0 forecast and also versus the April 59.2 reading).  Later, the Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected inventory build of 1.233 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 2.100 million barrels and the prior week’s 4.156-million-barrel drawdown). 

After the close, GEF and LULU reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line.  Meanwhile, VSCO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, FIVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that LULU raised its forward guidance while FIVE lowered guidance. 

In stock news, on Wednesday, HBI announced a deal to sell its Champion unit to AHRO in a deal worth up to $1.5 billion.  (HBI shares spiked 10%, but closed up 4.95% on the news.)  At the same time, the CFO of ASML suggested he is positive on orders coming from their top customer TSM (world’s largest chipmaker).  This could suggest a strong market in coming quarters for chipmakers and that might mean they expect their customers to buy chips. (ASML shares closed up 9.52% on the day.)  Meanwhile, CPB raised its annual forecast, citing expectations for growth in the eat-at-home market.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that the NBA is nearing a $76 billion broadcast rights deal with AMZN, DIS’s ESPN, and CMCSA’s NBC.  At the same time, Reuters reported that DLTR is exploring the sale or spinoff of its Family Dollar unit.  (DLTR is trying to sell at a premium while economic conditions are helping discounters.)  Later, Reuters reported that LMT has signed a deal to buy 25 space launches by 2029 from private firm Firefly Aerospace for an undisclosed amount.    

Elsewhere, At the same time, reports indicated that an WM acquisition of GFL may be just a matter of time after WM bought SRCL for $7.2 billion Monday.  Later, WMT announced it will pay bonuses of up to $1,000/year to 700k hourly store workers. The bonuses will cover both full and part-time employees.  In addition, WMT store managers will be eligible to earn bonuses of up to 200% of their annual salary.  At the same time, AAL offered its flight attendants an immediate 17% raise and an improved profit-sharing plan as part of long-running negotiations.  (AAL flight attendants have not had any raise for 5 years and the union was seeking an immediate 33% increase.)  After the close, AMZN announced its Zoox unit will begin testing robotaxis in Austin TX and Miami FL. (The announcement comes as an NHTSA investigation into crashes by Zoox robotaxis.)  Later, BA finally launched its Starliner spacecraft with a manned crew and reached orbit Wednesday.  Finally, note that NVDA will split 10-for-1 on June 7 for owners as of June 6 (due to the T+1 settlement, a buyer must buy Thursday to be an owner prior to the split, which happens at the close Friday and will begin trading at the split price Monday).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the FAA granted a certificate to begin commercial operations to ACHR (electric air taxi company). (ACHR, which is now backed by BA, UAL, and STLA, is the second electric air taxi firm to be approved, behind JOBY which received the approval in 2022.) At the same time, META was sued by a former engineer who alleges he was fired for fixing bugs that exposed company bias because it suppressed Palestinian Instagram posts.  Later, MCD lost exclusive rights to the term “Big Mac” for poultry-based products in the EU.  Judges ruled against MCD and in favor of an Irish food chain which has long used the term “Supermac” in relation to their poultry products. 

Elsewhere, after the close, the FDA Adviser panel unanimously voted to recommend that the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines should target the JN.1 variant (currently the dominant strain).  This was good news for NVAX, which could not have sold a vaccine this year if the decision went the other way.  However, the final decision will be made by the full FDA in early August (the FDA rules the same way as their advisory panel 88% of the time).  At the same time, telecom industry groups filed suit against the FCC seeking to overturn the agency’s recent ruling to reinstate net neutrality (which prevents the telcos like T, VZ, CMCSA, etc.) from charging different rates for and slowing bandwidth of certain classes of internet traffic compared to other classes of traffic.  Later, the FAA extended its “minimum NYC flight requirements” at NYC airports through October 2025.  The reduction benefits AAL, DAL, and LUV, which have cited a shortage of air traffic controllers and airline staff as the reason they are not using at least 80% of their allotted takeoff/landing slots.  At the same time, BRKB’s NetJets luxury plane unit sued its 3,400-member pilot union, alleging defamation related to comments about safety and pilot training.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with eight of the 12 regional exchanges above break-even.  Taiwan (+1.94%), South Korea (+1.03%), and India (+0.89%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see a heavily green picture at midday with only two of 15 bourses in the red (and only Russia’s -0.65% showing any appreciable loss).  The CAC (+0.45%), DAX (+0.72%), and FTSE (+0.34%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade on this D-day.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are flat and mixed early.  The DIA implies a -0.04% open, the SPY is unchanged, and the QQQ implies a +0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are up to 4.297% and Oil (WTI) is up six-tenths of a percent to $74.50 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for on Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, April Imports, April Exports, April Trade Balance, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Cost (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ABM, BIG, CIEN, GIII, SJM, NIO, and TTC.  Then, after the close, DOCU, NGL, and MTN report.  

In economic news later this week, on Friday, May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Private Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, and April Consumer Credit.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no major reports.

So far this morning, ABM and CIEN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GIII and SJM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, BIG and NIO missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABM, GIII, and NIO raised their forward guidance.  (TTC reports at 8:30 a.m.)

In miscellaneous news, BLK and major short-seller Citadel Securities announced they are backing an effort to launch a new stock exchange in TX.  The completely online exchange would be based on the idea that corporations are too regulated on NYSE and NASDAQ.  The actual term used was “more CEO-friendly.” (Yeah, what the market needs is less oversight of company reporting and transparency.)  At the same time, Canada became the first G7 nation to cut interest rates as the Bank of Canada cut rates a quarter percent to 4.75%.  Meanwhile, a US appeals court struck down an SEC rule intended to give investors more transparency into hedge funds.  Elsewhere, Dec. of Energy Granholm told an interview that the US could revive some recently-retired nuclear power plants to help meet demands for electricity.  (About a dozen reactors have closed since 2013, but some have been offline too long to be restarted.  Still, some are in a state where restart could quickly be accomplished.)

In other news, GS told clients Wednesday that a “flood of passive equity allocations” will pile into the stock market in early July.  The GS trading desk said this will tend to cause a market rally. In addition, GS said they believe seasonal trends and increasing retail investor interest in the market will also buoy stock prices this summer.  Elsewhere, the CDC reported that the JN.1 strain of COVID-19 is spreading fast across the US and is now killing hundreds of people each week.  Meanwhile, the World Health Organization reported that bird flu (H5N1) has killed one and hospitalized another man in Mexico.

With that background, it looks as if the market is undecided ahead of the ECB Rate decision (almost universally expected to be a cut) at 8:15 a.m. Eastern and US Weekly Jobless numbers at 8:30 a.m. SPY and QQQ gapped up just a bit and DIA gapped down just a bit to start the premarket. However, since then, all three have printed small indecisive Doji-type candles. All three are above their T-line (8ema). So, the Bulls are back in control of the market in the short-term. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is also back in the center of its mid-range. So, the bottom line is that the market, has room to run. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are red, but none more than a half percent down, in premarket. However, that biggest dog of all, NVDA (+1.89%), is pulling the rest higher as the huge Computex event continues in Taiwan.

Don’t forget to give the Army and Navy their due as we observe the 80th anniversary of D-day. The President is in Normandy paying our respects today along with other leaders and dignitaries from around the world. Cherish any WWII vet you meet, because they won’t be with us long.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher to start the day Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.31%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.63%.  However, these were Bull traps on a volatile day.  DIA immediately sold off after the open, recrossing its open gap in the first 5 minutes and continuing South to the lows of the day at 1:15 p.m.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ held onto their open gaps for 15 minutes before following DIA.  They too reached the low of the day at 1:15 p.m.  At that point, the volatility switched and the Bulls rallied all three major index ETFs the rest of the day (including a strong push the last 5 minutes).  This action gave us black-bodied Hammers in the SPY and DIA with a similar candle in the QQQ (only with a small upper wick).  The SPY retested the T-line (8ema) from above and passed the test on the day.  QQQ gapped above its T-line then retested that level from above…nearly, but not quite, pushing back above at day end.  At the same time, DIA moved toward its T-line but didn’t really test the level Monday.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.43%) way out in front leading the rest of the market lower (on OPEC+ economic pessimism).  At the same time, Healthcare (+0.59%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.08%, DIA lost 0.33%, and QQQ gained 0.154%.  VXX fell 0.61% to close at a low 11.46 and T2122 dropped back to the center of its mid-range to close at 46.92.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped sharply to 4.392% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.70% to close at $74.14 per barrel.  So, Monday was a V-shaped whipsaw day that bounced up off a support level from the March/April highs after the morning post-gap selloff.  This happened on well below-average volume all three major index ETFs. 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included May S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in a bit stronger than expected at 51.3 (compared to a 50.9 forecast and a 50.0 April reading).  Later, April Construction Spending was lower than predicted at -0.1% (versus a +0.2% forecast but better than March’s -0.2% value). At the same time, May ISM Mfg. Employment was stronger than anticipated at 51.1 (compared to the 48.5 forecast a 48.6 April reading).  However, the May ISM Mfg. PMI was down at 48.7 (versus the 49.8 forecast and 49.2 April value).  The May ISM Mfg. Prices Index was also down at 57.0 (compared to the 60.0 forecast and 60.9 April reading).   

In significant market news, the NYSE (owned by ICE) found and resolved a major “technical issue” Monday.  This was found to be due to a software update at a data center of the Consolidated Tape Assoc. (which is responsible for distributing real-time price data).  The problem included at least 40 tickers, including the major names BRKB and GOLD (which were both shown to be down more than 99% at one point.  (While NYSE reimbursed traders for losses due to a glitch in February 2023, there was no word on that for this case yet.)

After the close, LVRO reported misses on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Monday, the trade association representing the major airlines said industry revenue forecasts had risen to just under $1 trillion, with profits on target to reach $30.5 billion for 2024.  (This is up from $27.4 billion in 2023 and up dramatically from the group’s $25.7 billion profit forecast released in December.)   At the same time, Saudi Aramco sold $12 billion in stock within hours as it raised funds.  Later, SAM fell Monday after Japanese Brewer Suntory denied it was in talks to acquire SAM.  (SAM was down 10% at one point, but closed down 3.48%.)  At the same time, ADSK said it has concluded its audit / internal investigation that led to restatement of prior financial reports.  (ADSK popped and was up 10% at one point, closing up 4.57%.) Later, SPOT announced it will raise prices in the US for its premium plans as part of a program to increase profit margins.  At the same time, trade publication Beverage Digest reported Monday that the Dr. Pepper (owned by KDP) passed Pepsi (PEP) to become the second most popular soda in the US.  Both have about 8% of market share while Coke (KO) has more than 19% share.  Diet Coke (7.8%) and Sprite (8.1%) are in fourth and fifth pace and are also owned by KO.    

Elsewhere, HZO shares popped Monday on reports that ONEW is in talks to acquire the company.  Later, AMKAF (Maersk, the world’s second largest shipping company) said that significant congestion in Singapore and Dubai ports are causing delays.  As a result, the company will skip two westbound sailings from China and South Korea that had been scheduled to depart in early July.  (This congestion is due to a surge in cargo shipments as well as diversions to avoid the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks.)  Still, AMKAF raised its 2024 guidance on the strong shipping demand.  After the close, MSFT announced it is cutting hundreds of jobs (as many as 1,500 possible) from its Azure cloud computing and augmented reality divisions.  PARA agreed to merger (read acquisition) terms with Skydance.  Shareholders will receive $15/share (PARA closed at $12.80) while PARAA voting shares receive $23/share (closed at $22.14). Finally, GOOGL laid off 100 employees from its cloud computing division.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday the New York Times reported that MSTR and its founder (Michael Sayler) agreed to a $40 million settlement with the District of Columbia.  The settlement ends the largest income tax fraud case in D.C. history.  Later, the FDA announced it will vote on whether or not COVID-19 vaccines for 2024-2025 should target the JN.1 variant (currently the most dominant strain).  The news was greeted by a rally in NVAX (which had said last month it would only be able offer its vaccine in the US if the FDA accepted the one it is now manufacturing that is based on JN.1.  (MRNA, PFE, and BNTX are able to more quickly respond due to a different vaccine type.)  At the same time, the Chairman of TM apologized to the government of Japan for years of cheating (manipulating data) on collision safety tests. (At the same time, TM announced they have halted production of Corolla Fielder, Corolla Axio, and Taris Cross models, which were three of the models that TM fudged data to get certified.)  TM competitor MZDAF (Mazda) acknowledged the same type of cheating and also halted production on two of its models. 

Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Transportation fined four foreign airlines $2.5 million in civil penalties for delays in refunds for flights disrupted by COVID-19.  (Thousands of US passengers were forced to wait months for refunds for flight cancellations.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that a former TD bank employee in FL is under inquiry by the US Dept. of Justice.  The report says the employee took $200 bribes to open accounts in order to help move millions of dollars to Columbia while skirting money laundering laws.  (This probe is part of a $653 million drug money laundering probe by the DOJ of TD and other banks.)  Later, AAL told a US Appeals Court that it will consider a new partnership venture with JBLU if it wins its appeal of the case that ended the alliance of the two in the Northeast corridor.  At the same time, PacifiCorp (owned by BRKB) agreed to pay $178 million to resolve 403 claims arising from two 2020 fires (caused by the utility’s equipment).  The NHTSA announced an investigation into 75,000 NSANY (Nissan) 2015 Rogue Select vehicles over unintended deployments of side airbags.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five exchanges in the green and seven in the red. India (-5.93%) was the massive mover while Malaysia (+1.17%) and Shenzhen (+1.05%) were the only other moves of more than a percent.  (Indian markets were spooked by early returns from their long national election process. So far, it is looking as if PM Modi will win again, as he should given the way he stacked the deck, but his party’s margins are looking to be lower than expected.) In Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.80%), DAX (-1.05%), and FTSE (-0.49%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.39% open, the SPY is implying a -0.45% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.41% open.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.383% and oil (WTI) is down nearly 2% to $72.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for on Tuesday includes April Factory Orders and April JOLTs Job Openings (both at 10 a.m.), and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BBWI, CNM, DBI, DCI, and FERG. Then, after the close, CRWD, HPE, and PVH report.   

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, May ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, May S&P Global Services PMI, May S&P Global Composite PMI, May ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and May ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, April Imports, April Exports, April Trade Balance, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Q1 Unit Labor Cost, and Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Private Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, and April Consumer Credit.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday we hear from BF.A, CPB, DLTR, DOYU, HIBB, OLLI, REVG, THO, UNFI, FIVE, GEF, LULU, and VSCO.  On Thursday, ABM, BIG, CIEN, GIII, SJM, NIO, TTC, DOCU, NGL, and MTN report.  Finally, Friday, there are no major reports.

So far this morning, BBWI, DCI, and FERG have all reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DBI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  IT is worth noting that DCI raised its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, President Biden is expected to announce an Executive Order that will effectively close the US Southern border immediately.  The order would halt taking asylum requests at the US-Mexico border once the average daily “encounters” at ports of entry hits 2,500.  Taking of the requests would not resume until the average drops to 1,500. Since encounters are well above 2,500 (hitting 4,300 in April) the move would end asylum now. It is worth noting that the last time encounters fell to 1,500 was at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic during the previous administration.)  At the same time, the Associated Press reported that CEO pay increased 12.6% on average in 2023.  (This compares to a 4.1% increase for the average worker.)  This moves the average CEO pay to almost 200 times that of the average employee.  (That data is based on a survey of 382 CEOs from S&P 500 companies.)

With that background, it looks as if the large cap index ETFs gapped down to start the premarket while QQQ opened the early session flat. All three have traded lower since that start, printing black-bodied candles so far this morning. (QQQ is retesting and so far failing its T-line from above in Premarket.) With that said, the Bears are still in control of the market in the short-term. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is also back in the center of its mid-range. So, the bottom line is that the market, has room to run. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are red in premarket with only INTC (+1.58%) making an appreciable move on new AI chip announcements at Computex. (The new Intel Xeon chips are better than their predecessors in performance and power use and will be priced lower than NVDA and AMD competitors. This makes sense since the Xeon chips still are not in the same performance or power efficiency categories as those competing chips.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets started higher (in the premarket), perhaps on the Trump conviction news or just reversal of the week’s action, and then got another boost when PCE inflation came in as expected and even down a tick from March.  However, this initial optimism began to fade as we approached the open.  SPY then gapped up 0.20%, DIA opened 0.17% higher, and QQQ started flat at +0.04%.  From there, the Bulls followed-through for 15 minutes.  However, the Bears took over at that point selling off the SPY and QQQ until the lows of the day were hit at 12:25 p.m.  Meanwhile, the DIA started selling at 9:45 a.m. sold off until 10:15 a.m., recrossing its opening gap in the process.  Then it traded sideways until 12:25 p.m.  When we hit 12:25 p.m., all three major index ETFs began to rally modestly all the way until 3:40 p.m.  From there, the Bulls rampaged with a furious rally the last 20 minutes.  This action gave us a large, white-bodied candle (even a Morning Star if you squint) in the DIA, SPY printed a large, white-bodied Hammer candle that retested and crossed above its T-line (8ema), and QQQ gave us a long-handle, black-bodied Hammer. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Communication Services (+2.14%) out in front leading the rest of the market higher.  Meanwhile, Technology (-0.20%) was the only red sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.87%, DIA gained 1.59%, and QQQ lost 0.19%.  VXX dropped 3.03% to close at a low 11.53 and T2122 climbed all the way into the top part of its mid-range to close at 73.10.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields dropped to 4.502% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.83% to close at $77.26 per barrel.  So, Friday was a U-shaped day in the SPY and QQQ while DIA led by virtue of not selling off (instead grinding sideways) all morning.  The most notable portion of the day was the furious (and massive relative to the rest of the day’s move) rally in the last 20 minutes.  Whether this was month-end trades, short covering, share buyback action or what is unknown.  However, it happened like a light switch being turned on and there was no stopping the Bulls once they saw that light. This happened on average volume in the SPY and DIA as well as above-average volume in the QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, which was mostly flat (slowest monthly pace of the year).  The April Core PCE Price Index (month-to-month) came in a tick lower than expected at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and March reading).  For the year-on-year basis, April Core PCE Price Index came in flat and exactly as predicted at +2.8%.  The headline numbers (both month-on-month and year-on-year) were also exactly as anticipated at +0.3% on the month and +2.7% annually.  At the same time, April Personal Spending were both down and lower than expected at +0.2% (versus a +0.3% forecast and a +0.7% March value). Later, May Chicago PMI was down and lower than predicted at 35.4 (compared to a 41.1 forecast and 37.9 April reading).  

In a broader sense, SPY was down 0.39% for the week but up 5.06% on the month.  At the same time, DIA was down 0.80% on the week but up 2.49% for the month of May.  For its part, QQQ had the roughest week, down 1.58% but up 6.15% for May. Even the small-cap IWM had a similar pattern, rising 0.84% on the day, falling 0.16% for the week but up 5.04% on the month.

In “the Meaning of May” news, for what it is worth, the Trader’s Almanac reported Friday that a strong May increases the odds of a bullish remainder of the year.  May 2024 was the 10^th best May since 1950.  In addition, only twice during that 73 years did the SPY see greater than 3% gain and then end the year in the red.  During that time, Presidential Election years in 1980 and 2020 saw dramatic gains during the last seven months (up 22% and 23% respectively).  Trader’s Almanac predicts a 70% probability of S&P 500 returns of 8.6% for the rest of the year.  Elsewhere, in T+1 trade settlement news, it was reported the “trade failure” rate for the market was 2.71% Thursday.  This is up significantly from the 1.90% rate for both Tuesday and Wednesday.  The daily average trade failure rate for May (prior to the change to T+1) was 2.01%. SEC Chair Gensler said that despite the increased number of failed trades, “The historic conversion from T+2 to T+1 has gone smoothly thus far.” 

In stock news, on Friday, MDLZ announced that, after months of repair, it had restarted production of Oreo cookies in a Ukrainian plant. (The plant serves Eurasian countries, as well as Ukraine itself but not Russia.)  Later, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) is facing problems in its attempt to ramp up production as the BA-competitor struggles with parts and labor shortages.  (The article said it is unclear whether this puts plane delivery targets at risk or not, but the pressure and potentially costs are increasing.) At the same time, reports claimed the SUZ bid to acquire IP is increasingly more likely to go through as financing options were being lined up.  Later, Reuters reported that US oil refineries plan to operate at more than 90% of capacity for the remainder of the quarter as summer driving season hits.  MPC (largest US refiner) plans to run at 94% of its capacity (which is 2.9 million barrels-per-day).  This is up from MPC’s 82% of capacity on average in Q1.  Meanwhile, VLO (second largest refiner) plans to operate at 95% of its capacity the rest of Q2.  At the same time, GPS stock soared almost 29% after the retailer lifted its full-year guidance.  Later, Bloomberg reported that activist investor Carl Icahn has taken a significant position in CZR.  (In 2019, Icahn had a 10% stake when he began pushing for the casino to sell itself.  This resulted in the spinoff of CZR resorts for $8.5 billion to ERI.)      

Elsewhere, as a reminder, NVDA will split 10-for-1 on June 7 for owners as of June 6.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that PARA’s board special committee had now agreed to recommend the Skydance Media acquisition deal to PARA shareholders.  (The recommendation would come over deal offers from APO and SONY as well as a $30 billion bid from media mogul Byron Allen.)  It is worth noting that Shari Redstone controls 77% of the PARA voting stock and the deal will let shareholders cash out at $15/share (PARA closed at $11.91 on Friday).  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal also reported the SAM is in talks to sell itself Suntory (Japanese brewing and distilling company).  The two companies have partnered on products since 2021.  Later, after the close, META announced its Facebook app is attracting the highest number of young adults that it has attracted in three years.  (META said more than 40 million US and Canadian adults between 18 and 29 now check Facebook daily.)  After the close, LYV disclosed that a hacker has stolen and is seeking to sell Ticketmaster customer data on the dark web.  (LYV says the hack took place on May 20.)  On Saturday, BA scrubbed (for the fourth time) the launch of its first crewed spaceflight of its Starliner spacecraft. The same thing happened Sunday as NASA and BA cancelled another attempt at launching Starliner.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday it was confirmed that the FAA still will not allow BA to increase production of its 737 MAX planes.  However, the head of the agency said the 3-hour BA quality improvement plan “checked all the agency’s boxes” (without comment on whether the plan will work).  At the same time, the NHTSA said that TSLA has agreed to recall more than 125k vehicles due to a malfunction in the that could increase the probability of injury in the event of a collision.   Meanwhile, the Dept. of Labor sued HYMLF (Hyundai) over violations of child labor law, including the illegal employing of 13-year-old children that had been kept working 60 hours per week.  Later, the USPS will increase its first-class stamp price to $0.73 (from the current $0.68), effective July 14. The requested 25% rate increase for high-volume shippers (letters and parcels) has not been decided, or at least announced, as of Friday.  Meanwhile, the NTSB announced it has opened an investigation into the Wednesday near-collision between an AAL jet and a smaller airplane at Reagan Washington National Airport.  After the close, Bloomberg reported that TSLA CEO Musk was sued by a shareholder, alleging that Musk had inside information about TSLA production and delivery goal misses when he sold $7.5 billion of stock in 2022. The suit requests that Musk return the proceeds of the sale from his allegedly improper trading.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with nine of the 12 exchanges strongly above break-even.  India (+3.25%), New Zealand (+2.68%), Hong Kong (+1.79%), South Korea (+1.74%), and Taiwan (+1.71%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see 14 of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  Only Denmark (-0.11%) is in the red as the CAC (+0.36%), DAX (+0.75%), and FTSE (+0.10%) lead the region higher.  (Note that France had its credit downgraded over the weekend.)  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a flat to modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.46% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.467% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at +0.14% or $77.10 per barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for on Monday includes May S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), April Construction Spending, May ISM Mfg. Employment, May ISM Mfg. PMI, and May ISM Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to SAIC.  There are no major reports set for after the close.      

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get April Factory Orders, April JOLTs Job Openings, and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks.  Then on Wednesday, May ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, May S&P Global Services PMI, May S&P Global Composite PMI, May ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and May ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, April Imports, April Exports, April Trade Balance, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Q1 Unit Labor Cost, and Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Private Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, and April Consumer Credit.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday BBWI, CNM, DBI, DCI, FERG, CRWD, HPE, and PVH report. Then Wednesday we hear from BF.A, CPB, DLTR, DOYU, HIBB, OLLI, REVG, THO, UNFI, FIVE, GEF, LULU, and VSCO.  On Thursday, ABM, BIG, CIEN, GIII, SJM, NIO, TTC, DOCU, NGL, and MTN report.  Finally, Friday, there are no major reports.

So far this morning, SAIC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, the Associated Press reported that Panama will begin vacating an island off its coast this week in the face of sea level rise. The small island is only home for 300 families, but it is the first of 63 islands on Panama’s coast that experts expect to need to be evacuated over the next 5-10 years.  This is a story that US (and all global countries) should learn to expect as the climate keeps warning and ice melt continues to accelerate.  (Theoretically, this might have a small positive effect on the Panama Canal.  Higher oceans require less lift through locks for passage between.)  On Sunday evening, the Wall Street Journal reported that WM is close to a deal to buy SRCL for about $7 billion (which will include debt acquired).  Elsewhere, OPEC+ voted to extend their 3.66 million barrels per day production cuts (which were scheduled to end after December 2024) to the end of 2025.  It also extended the additional 2.2 million bpd cuts by eight members another three months, through September 2024.

In late-breaking news, Taiwan is the focus of the tech industry (and to a lesser extent markets) as the annual big event Computex takes place. NVDA jumped the gun by starting their own presentation separately on Sunday, where CEO Wang announced more corporate-focused (server farm) AI chips as well as free software AI-focused apps that can run on NVDA’s consumer and high-end chips (anything Cuda-enabled). This would let individuals have AI apps that run locally for specific purposes such as chatbots or any of a host of other use cases. This is notable, because it is less than three months since NVDA announced its previous Blackwell version of AI chips. Then overnight (Monday Taiwan time) AMD followed suit by announcing new AI chips (codename Rubin, AMD likes to use artist names). AMD CEO Lisa Su told the audience that AI is the number one priority at AMD. However, unlike NVDA’s focus on corporate cloud-farm AI chips (that are massively profitable, selling in the $30k-$40k range), AMD announced AI-capable laptop (in partnership with MSFT and using the Co-Pilot AI application) and desktop CPUs. AMD alsu unveiled its next version (9000 series) of desktop CPUs, which will be the fastest CPUs for consumer computers (as is typical for AMD). Both AMD consumer product lines will ship starting in July. On the corporate side, AMD also announced corporate-focused chips to compete with NVDA’s cloud-AI offerings which will hit the market in Q4. Elsewhere, meme stock GME is rocketing early after “Roaring Kitty” posted that he has taken a $116 million long position.

With that background, it looks as if the large cap index ETFs opened the premarket flat with SPY moving higher since then. Meanwhile, QQQ opened the early session with a gap up and has followed through since that start to the morning. (QQQ is retesting its T-line from below in Premarket.) With that said, the bears are still in control of the DIA and QQQ in the short-term. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is also in the mid-range, albeit toward the top of that range. So, the bottom line is that the market, has room to run. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are green in premarket with the AI chip names NVDA (+2.97%), AMD (+1.57%), and INTC (+0.52%) leading the way higher.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was the Bear’s Day from the start.  SPY gapped down 0.78%, DIA gapped down 0.85%, and QQQ gapped down 0.91%.  From there, all three major index ETFs rallied until 10 a.m.  For its part, QQQ continued to rally until 10:55 a.m.  At that point (10 a.m. in SPY and DIA and 11 a.m. in the QQQ), all three meandered sideways with a modest Bearish trend the remainder of the day.  This action gave us a gap-down, white-bodied Doji or Spinning Top type candle with high upper wick in the SPY.  DIA printed a gap-down, black-bodied Spinning Top.  Finally, the QQQ printed a gap-down, white body Inverted Hammer.  Spy gapped down through its T-line (8ema) and failed a retest from below.  QQQ held above its T-line and DIA is now very stretched below its own 8ema.  Once again, this all happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Basic Materials (-1.68%) and Energy (-1.58%) out in front leading the rest of the market lower.  Meanwhile, Communications Services (-0.72%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.69%, DIA fell 1.00%, and QQQ lost 0.70%.  VXX popped another 3.83% to close at a still low 11.93 and T2122 dropped well into its oversold territory to close at 9.97.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.614% and Oil (WTI) dropped 1.01% to close at $79.02 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was really all about the open as markets gapped down across the board.  After that, we saw that modest rebound rally and then the rest of the day was a drift sideways as traders look ahead to the GDP print on Thursday.  

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, which showed a much larger drawdown than expected at -6.490 million barrels (compared to a -1.900-million-barrel forecast and the prior week’s 2.480-million-barrel increase).   

In Fed news, on Wednesday, the Fed announced that Cleveland Fed President Mester (who steps down on June 30) will be replaced by GS executive Beth Hammack as of August 21.  This means the FOMC will be short one voter at the July 30-31 meeting.  Hammack, who has served the bulk of her career working for the Fed, is GS’s Co-head of Global Financing.  Elsewhere, the Fed Beige Book showed that consumers grew “somewhat more pessimistic.”  However, the report said, “National economic activity continued to expand from early April to mid-May,” though overall outlooks “grew somewhat more pessimistic amid reports of rising uncertainty and greater downside risks.”  The majority of (Fed) districts noted “better labor availability, though some shortages remained in select industries or areas.”  In terms of wages, the report said, “Several (Fed) districts reported that wage growth was at (back down to) pre-pandemic historical averages or was normalizing toward those rates.”  The report concluded by saying, “price growth is expected to continue at a modest pace in the near term.”

After the close, HPQ, NTNX, OKTA, and PSTG reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, A, AEO, NOAH, and CRM reported misses on revenue while beating one earnings.  On the other side, UHAL beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, CPRI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that NOAH had an absolutely massive miss on revenue.  It is also worth noting that A and NTNX lowered their guidance.  At the same time, OKTA and CRM raised their forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Canadian firm AET.V (Aethon) announced it would buy the upstream assets of TELL for $260 million.  Aethon also signed a deal to buy two million tons of LNG per year from TELL.  At the same time, Reuters reported that XOM and SHEL are close to an agreement to sell their jointly-owned North Sea natural gas fields to British producer Viaro Energy.  (This comes at a time when major competitor CVX is also divesting from North Sea assets.)  Later, BITF rejected an acquisition offer of $2.30 per share in cash and stock from RIOT.  At the same time, MRK announced it has agreed to buy private biotech EyeBio for $3 billion ($1.3 billion in cash and $1.7 billion in future milestone payments).  Later, UNH shares fell 6% after an unnamed executive told an industry conference that they see a “disturbance” coming in its Medicaid business.  At the same time, BA announced it had reached a tentative deal with the firefighter’s union.  The union is expected to vote Thursday, which may end the company’s lockout of firefighters from its Seattle plant.  Later, ARM announced new chips and chip design tools to help smartphones handle AI tasks. 

Elsewhere, BHP announced it had ended its efforts to acquire AAUKF and walking away from its $49 billion offer for the London-based rival.  At the same time, Reuters reported that NABL is exploring a sale after attracting acquisition interest.  Later, MCD President (Erlinger) denounced viral reports of “runaway Big Mac prices.”  Erlinger said that such reports frustrate him and are vastly distorted, saying the average menu item had risen only 40% since 2019.  (The viral report had complained of an $18 Big Mac and 100% increases since 2021.)  At the same time, META announced it had identified networks that are pushing deceptive AI-generated content (such as praising Israeli actions in Gaza) onto social media feeds including those of US lawmakers.  These bad actors include Israeli-based political marketing firm STOIC.  Later, GD announced it is opening a new plant in Mesquite, TX to produce 100k 155mm artillery shells per month.  (The US Army will actually own the plant equipment and lease it to GD.)  After the close, WMT announced a technical issue in mid-March had caused self-checkout kiosks to overcharge customers at 1,600 of its 5,000 stores.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the NHTSA told owners of 84,000 older NSANY (Nissan) vehicles to stop driving them due to unrepaired Takata air bags.  At the same time, AAL was sued for racial discrimination for temporarily removing three black men from a January Phoenix to NYC flight.  The suit alleges that the plaintiffs and five other black men were removed from the flight when a white flight attendant complained about offensive body odor.  Later, the EU announced it will hold a closed-door meeting with car battery makers (including BANR) where the companies will defend themselves against charges of operating as a cartel to fix battery prices.  At the same time, the NHTSA said it’s seeking TSLA records as part of the investigation into 334k 2023 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles losing power steering while in motion.  (There have been 2,388 complaints on this issue as of February.)  Later, Reuters reported that FDA sources tell it that the agency has determined that nicotine and nicotine-like chemicals in vape products may be more potent (and addictive) than those in tobacco products.  This puts MO and BTI in the investigative crosshairs. 

Elsewhere, a US district judge in Seattle rejected an AMZN motion to dismiss an FTC lawsuit that alleges the company enrolled consumers into Amazon Prime without the consumer’s consent.  (The trial remains scheduled to start in October 2026.)  Later, the FAA announced that the agency chief (FAA Administrator Whitaker) is scheduled to meet with the BA CEO and other company executives to be presented the company’s quality improvement plans, which was demanded 90 days ago after the most recent spate of BA quality issues.  After the close, a settlement was announced in a class action case against V and MA.  The two companies will pay a $197 million settlement to end the case of millions of consumers alleging they colluded to keep cash access fees artificially high.  (V will pay $104.6 million and MA will pay $92.8 million.)  Later, the conservative activist group known for filing DEI lawsuits sent open letters to TSN and the US Dept. of Justice alleging the company is illegally hiring immigrants and children rather than adult US citizens.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only two of 12 exchanges able to hold onto green territory.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-1.56%), Taiwan (-1.38%), Hong Kong (-1.34%), and Japan (-1.30%) led the region South.  In Europe, we see a much brighter picture taking shape at midday with 10 of 15 bourses in the green, albeit on modest moves.  The CAC (+0.17%), DAX (-0.01%), and FTSE (+0.21%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward mixed but bearish follow-through to yesterday’s selling.  The DIA implies a -0.83% open, the SPY is implying a -0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.28% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.594% and Oil (WTI) is off a half of a percent to $78.85 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, April Goods Trade Balance, April Retail Inventories, Preliminary Q1 GDP, Preliminary Q1 GDP Price Index, and Preliminary Q1 PCE Prices (all at 8:30 a.m.), April Pending Home Sales, (10 a.m.), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Williams (12:05 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BBY, BIRK, BURL, CAL, CM, CBRL, DG, FL, HRL, KSS, RY, and SPTN.  Then, after the close, COO, COST, DELL, GPS, GES, MRVL, NTAP, JWN, ULTA, VEEV, and ZS report.    

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get April Core PCE Price Index, April PCE Price Index, April Personal Spending, and May Chicago PMI.  We also head from Fed member Bostic.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on DOOO reports.

So far this morning, BIRK, BURL, BWLP, CM, DG, and RY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BBY, CAL, FL, HRL, and SPTN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  (FL had a huge +83.3% earnings beat.) However, unfortunately, KSS missed on both the top and bottom line.  It is worth noting that only KSS changed guidance, lowering its outlook.

In miscellaneous news, the White House said Wednesday that it is taking measures to support new US nuclear power plants.  This is part of the administration push for more carbon-free electricity to battel climate change.  (Nuclear plants account for 19% of US electric production currently.)  Elsewhere, the new T+1 trade settlement process went mostly smoothly in its first day.  Major clearing houses report that 92.76% of Tuesday’s trades were settled, which was up from Friday’s 89.59%.  (However, it is worth noting that both Friday and Tuesday were low-volume trading days in the market.  So, the new process has not been “stress tested” quite yet.)  Meanwhile, a federal judge in TX transferred a suit brought against the CFPB by the US Chamber of Commerce (who had shopped for a conservative court) to Washington. This is a major win for the CFPB and loss for banks and the Chamber of Commerce.  (This came after the 5^th Circuit Appeals Court had prevented the original transfer.  So, the judge had to reconsider and document the reasons for the transfer again.)  Finally, in interesting geopolitical news, BABA stopped all deliveries to customers in Russia and will no longer do transactions in Russian Rubles.  BABA said it will return funds already received from customers located in that region for unfilled orders.  (This seems to indicate the company, if not China itself, are seeking to avoid US or Western sanctions.)

In late-breaking news, activist investor Nelson Peltz announced Wednesday evening that he had sold his enter 30 million share holdings of DIS (at $120/share) after losing his proxy war with DIS CEO Iger.  (DIS now trades at $100/share.)  Then this morning, AMZN announced that it has added a GRUB subscription ($120/year value) to its Amazon Prime membership ($139/year) service. Also this morning, FL posted better than expected results as its CEO said he said average selling prices increased in Q1 and he still sees consumers willing to pay full price.

With that background, it looks as if markets continue their bearish mood this morning in the premarket. (The DIA in particular fell out of bed again.) However, so far, all three major index ETFs are printing small, indecisive candles after the gap lower to start the early session. (SPY and QQQ are printing white body candles with QQQ retesting its T-line from below in Premarket. DIA is printing a small black-body candle.) Bear in mind that we get a second pass at GDP data later in the premarket and then PCE inflation data on Friday morning. With that said, the bears are in control of all three major index ETFs in the short-term. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, DIA is now extremely stretched to the downside below its T-line (8ema). The other two major index ETFs are not over extended from their T-lines. The T2122 indicator is back in the oversold range. So, the bottom line is that the market, especially the DIA names, is now in need of at least a rest or pull up to relieve pressure. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split this morning with the five green names led by AMD (+0.82%) and the five red names led by MSFT (-0.84%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the short week off in a mixed and modest way.  SPY opened 0.14% higher, DIA opened down 0.19%, and QQQ gapped up 0.22%.  After that open, SPY and QQQ immediately faded that gap, recrossing below Friday’s close.  However, by 9:50 a.m. they were in a modest rally that eventually recrossed the open gap and then bobbed along the open level until 12:50 p.m. in the SPY and 1:40 p.m. in the QQQ.  At that point, both sold off sharply until 2:40 p.m.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA sold off all day until that 2:40 p.m. point.  However, all three major index ETFs rallied that last 80 minutes of the day.  This action gave us Hammer type candles in all three. The SPY gave us a gap-up black-body Hammer that successfully retested the T-line (8ema).  At the same time, DIA printed a gap-down black-bodied large Hammer.  Finally, QQQ gave us a gap up white-bodied candle.  Once again, this all happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Industrials (-1.16%) was out in front leading the rest of the market lower.  At the same time, Energy (+1.27%) held up far better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.07%, DIA fell -0.51%, and QQQ gained 0.37%.  VXX popped 2.13% to close at a still very low 11.49 and T2122 dropped but remains in (the lower part of) its midrange to close at 26.43.  Elsewhere, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.542% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.14% to close at $80.16 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a divergent day for the market.  QQQ printed another all-time high close while DIA continued its pullback and SPY was in between those two.  However, there was clear indecision in all three major index ETFs, because all three gave us more wick than body.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, which came in stronger than expected at 102.0 (compared to a forecast of 96.0 and the April reading of 97.5).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Fed Governor Bowman told a Bank of Japan Conference that said she would have supported a later start or a more moderate pace of Fed Balance Sheet reduction.  Bowman said, “While it is important to slow the pace of balance sheet runoff as reserves approach ample levels, in my view we are not yet at that point.”  However, she continued, “In my view, it is important to continue to reduce the size of the balance sheet to reach ample reserves as soon as possible and while the economy is still strong … Doing so will allow the Federal Reserve to more effectively and credibly use its balance sheet to respond to future economic and financial shocks.”  At the same even, Cleveland Fed President Mester indicated more lengthy Fed statements about the economy would be useful.  She said, “While simpler is often seen as a virtue, it can also be a detriment,” … “With short statements, each word takes on added significance.”  Mester continued, “In my view, it would be preferable for policymakers to take control of the narrative by using more words to describe the current assessment of economic developments, how they have influenced the outlook, and the risks to that outlook.”  Later, back in the US, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told CNBC that the FOMC should wait before cutting rates.  He said, “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back,” (It is worth noting that Kashkari had forecast only two cuts in his “dot” back in April.  However, the average of the dot plots was calling for three quarter-point cuts in 2024.)

After the close, HEI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (Both were gains quarter-on-quarter with a revenue gain of 39% versus the same quarter in 2023.)

In stock news, on Tuesday, activist investor Elliott Management disclosed that it has amassed a $2.5 billion stake in TXN.  Elliott urged the chipmaker to improve its free cash flow by implementing a “dynamic capacity management strategy.”  (Elliott was telling TXN to outsource manufacturing, where contracts can be canceled without leaving idle assets on the books, rather than building plants.)  At the same time, Chinese EV-maker Byd launched a new hybrid vehicle, moving into markets previously dominated by TM (Toyota) and VLKAF (Volkswagen).  This new vehicle will have a 1,250-mile range between refueling or recharging.  In related news, VLKAF also announced a low-cost all electric vehicle to be developed in partnership with Renault to compete with China’s Byd and TSLA in Chinese markets.  At the same time, SMNEY (Siemens Energy) announced 4,100 job cuts globally from its wind turbine division, which is around 15% of its workforce.  Reportedly, either all or the vast majority of these will be in Europe and in particular Spain.  Later, CNBC confirmed previous rumors that GOOGL is well into talks to buy HUBS.  At the same time, CPB announced it is cutting 415 jobs (from a workforce of 14,500).  TMUS announced it had agreed to acquire USM for $4.4 billion.  The deal includes TMUS obtaining customers, stores, but only 30% of USM’s wireless spectrum.  (It is worth noting that VZ was also in the bidding to make this acquisition.) 

Elsewhere, healthcare industry analysts dramatically increased market size predictions for the GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (currently from NVO and LLY).  Up until Tuesday, most said the market would reach $100 billion annually by the early 2030s.  Now, in most part based on increased production by NVO and LLY, analysts expect the sales of GLP-1 type drugs to reach $150 billion by then with some saying $131 billion per year by 2028.  Later, VZ announced it added CMCSA’s Peacock streaming service, as well as YouTube Premium on various plans.  After the close, AAL cut its Q2 profit forecast. (AAL shares fell 4% in after-hours trading.)  At the same time, UAL reaffirmed its Q2 forecast.  After the close, HES shareholders approved the $53 billion merger (sale) to CVX.  Later, Bloomberg reports that despite dour predictions and TSLA slashing workers, six of the 10 largest electric vehicle makers reported blockbuster sales growth, ranging from 56% HYMLF (Hyundai-Kia) to 86% (F) in Q1 2024 versus Q1 2023.  The report says April sales (yet to be released) came in hot as well. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, NKE partially won its second appeal on a lawsuit against smaller competitor ADDYY (Adidas).  The German court ruled that NKE can include three stripes on some of its trouser design.  (A lower court ruled that having two or three stripes would violate Adidas trademark back in 2022.)  Later, a US appeals court announced it will hear legal challenges to the new law that requires China-based TikTok to sell to a US-based firm by January 19 or face a ban, in September.  At the same time, the US Dept. of State “Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism” has ramped up pressure on META, GOOGL, MSFT, TikTok, and the former Twitter according to Bloomberg.  The Envoy (Lipstadt) requested that the companies to each designate an employee to address antisemitism issues and conduct training.  Lipstadt also pressed the platforms to crack down on anti-Semitic posts.  After the close, the Treasury Dept. set a minimum bid of $492 million for next week’s auction of the stock warrants it received from US airlines in exchange for COVID-19 assistance in 2020 and 2021.  ($54 billion in aid was issued to AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV, and smaller airlines.  $14 billion has already been repaid.)  Meanwhile, Poland signed a $735 million contract to buy JASSM-ER missiles from LMT.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the down side with only two of the 12 exchanges hanging onto green territory.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.83%), South Korea (-1.67%), and Australia (-1.30%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.05%), DAX (-0.66%), and FTSE (-0.27%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a red start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.65% open, SPY is implying a -0.68% open, and QQQ implies a -0.73% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.568% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent to $80.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday are limited to Fed Beige Book (2 p.m.) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  However, we also hear from Fed members Williams (1:45 p.m.) and Bostic (7 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ANF, AAP, BMO, CHWY, and DKS.  Then, after the close, A, AEO, CPRI, HPQ, NOAH, NTNX, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, and UHAL report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, April Goods Trade Balance, April Retail Inventories, Preliminary Q1 GDP, Preliminary Q1 GDP Price Index, and Preliminary Q1 PCE Prices, April Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, we get April Core PCE Price Index, April PCE Price Index, April Personal Spending, and May Chicago PMI.  We also head from Fed member Bostic.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, BBY, BIRK, BURL, CAL, CM, CBRL, DG, FL, HRL, KSS, RY, SPTN, COO, COST, DELL, GPS, GES, MRVL, NTAP, JWN, ULTA, VEEV, and ZS report.  Finally, on Friday, DOOO reports.

So far this morning, ANF, CHWY, and DKS reported beats on both the revenue and the earnings line.  Meanwhile, BMO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  At the same time, AAP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, the CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors, who are the client advisors for major banks, funds, and financial advisors) increased their equity exposure to an all-time high.  The bias toward stocks is now in the 96^th percentile, which may be a contrary indicator for markets.  (In essence, there is nothing they can do other than stand pat or recommend other assets in the future…like after May.  That could lead to selling pressure as money is moved into things other than stocks.)  In an unrelated story (because the CTA report is backward looking), interest rates spiked on Tuesday as the Treasury auction for 5-year notes saw lower-than-expected demand, which led to higher-than-expected yield for $70 billion in bonds.  Elsewhere, nearly a million customers are without power in TX, KY, and AR after storms.  This was up from 750k early in the day Tuesday.

In late-breaking news, COP announced it has agreed to buy MRO in an all-stock deal worth $17.1 billion.  The combination will strengthen COP’s shale oil business.  The announcement said the deal is expected to close in Q4.  Elsewhere in the Oil industry, the Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Aramco is seeking to sell between $10 billion and $20 billion in additional stock.  (Aramco raised $29.4 billion in its IPO in the Saudi Arabian stock market back in 2019, which despite being in a small exchange was the largest IPO in history.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are decidedly bearish this morning in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped lower in the early session and have printed black-bodied candles since then. QQQ and DIA are decisive with large black bodies and little wick, but SPY remains less decisive with plenty of wick in its premarket candle. (It is worth noting that SPY has crossed below its T-line this morning and DIA is very stretched below its own 8ema.) Bear in mind that we still have a heavy data week ahead, but not so much today. GDP comes in Thursday and PCE on Friday with a sprinkling of Fed talkers on every day.) The bulls remain in control in the QQQ, with the Bears in control in DIA and SPY somewhere in the middle in the short-term. At the same time, the mid-term remains very bullish and the longer-term market also remains Bullish. In terms of extension, DIA is over-cooked to the downside. The other two major index ETFs are not over extended from their T-lines. The T2122 indicator is back in the lower end of its mid-range. So, the bottom line is that the market has room to run either way if the Bulls or Bears can gather the momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning. Only NVDA (+0.72%), the biggest dog, is holding onto green with AMD (-1.24%) and TSLA (-1.08%) leading the rest lower. (Bear in mind that NVDA is by far the largest daily mover, trading almost $44 billion in stock each day on average while TSLA is a distant second at $11 billion per day in stock traded.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Marketed opened higher on Friday as SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA opened 0.13% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.36%.  From there, SPY and QQQ rallied higher until 11:15 a.m.  At that point, both grounds sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA just meandered sideways until 2:15 p.m. when it very modestly sold off the for 45 minutes and the ground sideways in a very tight range the last hour of the day.  QQQ remained well above its T-line while SPY crossed back above its own.  DIA stayed well below its T-line without even an attempt to retest.  This action gave us white-bodied, Bullish Harami / Spinning Top candles in the QQQ and SPY with a black-bodied, Harami Doji in the DIA. (All of these indicate indecision.) This all happened on far-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.11%), Consumer Cyclical (1.08%), and Basic Materials (+1.06%) in front leading the rest of the market higher.  At the same time, Healthcare (-0.08%) was the only red sector (barely) lagging well behind the other nine. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.67%, DIA was flat at -0.01%, and QQQ gained 0.95%.  VXX fell just under 3% to close at a very low 11.25 and T2122 popped up into the center of its midrange to close at 53.42.  Elsewhere, 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.467% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.20% to close at $77.79 per barrel. So, Friday was a modestly divergent rest day.  The SPY and QQQ saw Bulls bounce back a good part of Thursday’s losses, but still printed inside day candles. In fact, QQQ closed at a new all-time high close and 0.27% from its all-time high.  At the same time, DIA was clearly the weakest and both indecisive and flat after a very modest intraday run up. 

For the week, QQQ was again the leader, up for a 5^th straight week (+1.37%) on the week) and well above its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, SPY printed a flat (-0.00%) long-legged Doji after four straight up weeks…again, well above its T-line.  However, DIA (-2.33%) gave us a huge down black candle on the week, closing at its weekly T-line after four up weeks..

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included April Core Durable Goods, which came in appreciably stronger than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.1% and March’s reading of +0.2%).  At the same time, the headline April Durable Goods came in down a tick but far above expectations at +0.7% (versus a forecast of -0.9% and March’s +0.8% value).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was a bit stronger than anticipated at 69.1 (compared to a 67.4 forecast and previous reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also better and expected at 68.8 (versus a forecast and previous reading of 66.5).  In terms of inflation, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were up a tick to +3.3% (compared to a forecast of +3.5% but above the previous +3.2%).  Finally, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations was flat at +3.0% (versus a forecast of +3.1% and in line with the prior +3.0% value).

In Fed news, Fed Governor Waller spoke Friday.  He talked about the R-star interest rate (which is the theoretical short-term interest rate that would exist if the economy is at full employment and inflation is stable).  Waller said this rate may have increased from the past and may increase in the future.  The reason that change is important, is that if that interest rate did rise, then the Fed’s 2% inflation target would be too low.  (In other words, Waller was saying that it may be that if the Fed does drive inflation to 2%, that would cause economic contraction on its own, because inflation would be below the stable economy rate.  With that background, we can go to Waller’s comments.

Waller said, “There has been a lot of debate during the past year as to whether or not ‘R-star’ has increased.”  He went on to explain, that in the historically, R-star declined over the longer-term.  However, in recent years, demographic shifts, accelerated US Treasury borrowing (government spending and Fed pandemic policies), and changes to technology have reversed that trend.  If that trend did reverse, this would mean that the stable economy inflation rate has gone up.  Government spending could be a key trigger.  Waller said, “If the growth in the supply of U.S. Treasuries begins to outstrip demand, this will mean lower prices and higher yields, which will put upward pressure on R-star.” (Meaning the Fed would need to adjust its inflation target upward.)  On a related topic, Waller said, “Notwithstanding the drumbeat of warnings from some that the U.S. dollar is in danger of losing its primacy in global trade and finance, it remains by a very large margin the world’s reserve currency.” He concluded, “U.S. government debt, likewise, remains the primary form of low-risk asset, which is reflected in the huge stock of Treasury securities held as foreign exchange reserves around the world.”

In stock news, on Friday, FDX announced it had resumed service to Ukraine after a two-year hiatus of service.  (Services to Russia and Belarus remain suspended.)  At the same time, LLY announced it is investing $5.3 billion to expand manufacturing for its high-demand anti-obesity drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro at its Lebanon, IN plant.  Later, BA announced it had updated its employee initial training to include 1-2 weeks of additional quality skills.  In a related story, BA said it has seen a six-fold increase in product and service safety submissions from employees in the first two months of 2024.  (After the January 5 incident with the ALK flight 737 MAX 9 having a door plug blow out during flight.)  At the same time, Indian e-commerce company Flipkart told Reuters that as part of its latest funding round, both WMT and GOOGL will be joining as a minority investors.  (GOOGL will take a $350 million position while WMT will invest $600 million.)  Later, WMT and COF announced they are ending their consumer credit card agreement (COF was the exclusive issuer of WMT-branded credit cards).  This comes after WMT had sued and won a ruling it could end the relationship after WMT accused COF of being slow to process transactions and replace lost cards.  At the same time, C asked 600 employees to return to the office rather than continue to work remotely.  Later, (in perhaps the most BA headline ever) BA said it has convinced NASA to allow BA proceeding with the launch of its first crewed Starliner.  This comes despite BA not having solved the helium leak that caused a scratch of the launch three times. The new launch date is June 1.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA said it had learned of nine more incidents that raise concerns about GOOGL’s Waymo self-driving vehicles.  This followed the agency’s opening of an investigation after 22 reports of robotaxies violating traffic laws and 17 “unexpected behaviors” that resulting in collisions.  Later, NVAX told Reuters that it has advanced a new version of its COVID-19 vaccine that is targeted on the new JN.1 (aka KP.2) variant that has become dominant in the US over the last month.  NVAX said it expects the FDA advisers to discuss their vaccine as well as those from PFE and BTNX as well as MRNA at a June 5 meeting.  (NVAX said it will take the companies 100 days or more to manufacture an adequate supply for the market.)  At the same time, the UAW filed a complaint with the NRLB against MBGAF.  The complaint alleges the employee vote (which the union lost 44% to 56%) was unfair due to relentless anti-union campaign by management and seeks a second vote.

After the close, META submitted proposed changed to its UK privacy compliance proposals.  Also after hours, the US FDA advisory panel voted 7-4 against the use of NVO’ weekly insulin drug in patients with Type 1 diabetes. (The FDA itself could still approve, but very seldom goes against the advisory panel recommendation.)  Later, families of the 2022 elementary school shooting in Uvalde, TX filed suit against META, ATVI (which is now MSFT) and a gunmaker.  The suit alleges the companies cooperated to market dangerous weapons to impressionable teens, including the Uvalde shooter.  Still later, two chemical companies and a plastics industry group filed suit against the CA Attorney General seeking to block the AG from subpoenaing documents related to plastic waste and its disposal.  At the same time, the US Trade Representative said it has extended Section 301 tariff exclusions on 352 Chinese imports from 77 categories through May 31, 2025.  However, the agency also said that the tariff exclusions for 102 other categories will fall away as they expire next month.

 Overnight, Asian markets were slanted toward the red side.  Only two of the 12 exchanges held onto green.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-1.23%) paced the losses (out in front of the next biggest loser by more than six-tenths of a percent).  In Europe, a similar picture is taking shape at midday with just two of 15 bourses in the green.  The CAC (-0.56%), DAX (-0.01%), and FTSE (-0.26%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a +0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are just below flat at 4.463% and Oil (WTI) is up by 1.70% to $79.04 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman and Fed member Mester (both at 12:55 a.m.) and Kashkari (9:55 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BNS, DAC, ESLT, and MOMO.  Then, after the close, HEI reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get the Fed Beige Book, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, as well as hearing from Fed members Williams and Bostic.  Then Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, April Goods Trade Balance, April Retail Inventories, Preliminary Q1 GDP, Preliminary Q1 GDP Price Index, and Preliminary Q1 PCE Prices, April Pending Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, we get April Core PCE Price Index, April PCE Price Index, April Personal Spending, and May Chicago PMI.  We also head from Fed member Bostic.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday we hear from ANF, AAP, BMO, CHWY, DKS, A, AEO, CPRI, HPQ, NOAH, NTNX, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, and UHAL.  Then Thursday, BBY, BIRK, BURL, CAL, CM, CBRL, DG, FL, HRL, KSS, RY, SPTN, COO, COST, DELL, GPS, GES, MRVL, NTAP, JWN, ULTA, VEEV, and ZS report.  Finally, on Friday, DOOO reports.

So far this morning, BNS and ESLT reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, MOMO missed (big time) on both the top and bottom lines.  DAC reported closer to the opening bell.

In miscellaneous news, TX electricity use broke the May record for the second time in just the week on Friday.  Friday’s 72,550 megawatts topped Monday’s 72,261mw.  The forecast is for the record to be broken again Monday.  (The all-time peak usage in TX is 85,508mw in August 2023.)  Elsewhere, another human case of bird flu was found in MI (the second found in the state).  Meanwhile, reports from China indicate that AAPL is staging a bit of a comeback in that country.  Official data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology say that iPhone sales popped up 52% in April after heavy retailer discounts and AAPL slashing prices.  (AAPL is up more than 2% in premarket on the news.)

In other news, on Sunday, TSN was hit with a damning report from the Union of Concerned Scientists.  The report, entitled “Waste Deep” said that between 2018 and 2022, TSN dumped 371.72 million pounds of pollutants into US waterways, most concerningly ammonia and phosphorous.  (More than half of that was in just the states of NE, MO, and IL.)  The largest portion of this coming from industrial cleaners used on machines and carcasses.  Interestingly, this is a dramatic undercount, since the data came from only 41 or TSN’s 123 US plants.  However, TSN responded by saying its waste disposal complies with EPA and state regulations (other than a few instances).  This is probably true since those rules have not been updated since the turn of the century and even more worryingly, only about 10% of all meat processing plants in the US are required to comply with the usually-stricter EPA rules.  (This in a nod to cutting the regulatory bourdon on businesses.) 

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive as traders come back from the long weekend. The SPY and QQQ gapped higher to start the premarket, but have printed indecisive, wicky candles since then. At the same time DIA started the early session flat and had put in a small black-bodied candle from that point. Bear in mind that coming into a heavy data short week and ending May, the SPY and QQQ are at or very near all-time highs and DIA is about 2.5% away. The point is that the Bulls could look to end May on an up note. At any rate, SPY and QQQ are well above their T-line and DIA is below its own 8ema. The bulls remain in control in the short-term and even the DIA can be seen as nothing but a pullback in an uptrend. At the same time, the mid-term is also very bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far extended from the T-line. The T2122 indicator is also back in the center of its mid-range. So, the bottom line is that the market has room to run if either the Bulls or Bears can gather the momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split between green and red. However, the biggest movers are all on the green side with NVDA (+3.03%), AAPL (+1.86%), and AMD (+1.28%) out front dragging the QQQ higher again today. (The biggest loser among the 10 is TSLA at -0.87% at this point.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped higher on the AI coming from NVDA’s blowout earnings report and forecast.  SPY gapped up 0.59%, DIA opened just 0.07% higher, and QQQ gapped up 1.07%.  However, this was a Bull trap as all three major index ETFs sold off sharply until 10 a.m.  From there, all three chopped sideways until 12:30 p.m. when the next leg of sharp selloff began.  That selloff lasted until 3 p.m. when DIA began a sideways grind for the last hour while SPY and DIA bounced modestly the last hour.  This action gave up large black-body candles with lower wicks in the case of SPY and QQQ (less so in the DIA).  DIA recrossed and fell significantly below its T-line (8ema). At the same time, SPY crossed just below its T-line.  However, QQQ retested and bounced up off its T-line.  Once again, this all happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  (Although, it should be noted that DIA was closer to average than the other two.)

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-2.11%) far out in front leading the rest of the market lower.  At the same time, Technology (-0.55%), buoyed by NVDA’s huge +9.32% showing, held up better than all other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.73%, DIA lost a huge 1.50%, and QQQ lost 0.44%.  VXX gained 1.40% to close at still very low 11.59 and T2122 dropped out of the midrange and into its oversold territory at 14.40.  Elsewhere, 10-year bond yields climbed to 4.477% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.90% to close at $76.87 per barrel.  So, overall, Thursday was a Bull Trap Day where the Bears were in charge all day after a gap higher.  It might be worth noting that all 30 of the DIA were negative, 449 of the SPY’s 503 stocks were in the red, and 83 of the 101 stocks in the QQQ were down. With that said, DIA was clearly the weakest, giving up potential support levels and printing by far the largest black candle.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Building Permits, which came in down but exactly as expected at 1.440 million (compared to a 1.440 million forecast and the previous 1.467 million reading).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than predicted at 215k (versus a 220k forecast and a 223k prior week value).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up but exactly as anticipated at 1,794k (compared to the 1,794k forecast and up from the previous week’s 1,786k).  Later, S&P Global Mfg. PMI was a bit stronger than expected at 50.9 (versus a 50.0 forecast and previous reading). At the same time, S&P Global Services PMI were reported as stronger than predicted at 54.8 (compared to a forecast of 51.2 and the April 51.3 value).  Together, these last two gave us an S&P Global Composite PMI that was better than anticipated at 54.4 (versus the 51.1 forecast and the 51.3 April reading).  Later, April New Home Sales were weaker than expected at 634k (compared to the 677k forecast and 665k March number).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed another decrease, now at $7.300 trillion (versus the prior week’s $7.304 trillion).

In Fed news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told a Stanford University audience that the Us is not out of the woods on inflation yet.  Bostic said, “We’re not past the worry point in terms of inflation getting back to our target.”  However, he did suggest that inflation is still on a slow pace toward the FOMC goal, saying, “The couple of inflation numbers suggest it’s going back to 2%, but going slow.”  He continued, “Job growth has been robust … which tells me there’s still a lot of energy in the economy.  We’re not at risk today, I don’t think, of falling into a contractionary environment.”  Bostic concluded, “It might be that we have to be a little more patient and be more certain that inflation is on its way (to the Fed’s 2% goal).”

In stock news, on Thursday, WMT countered TGT’s announcement of price cuts on 5,000 items (from earlier this week) by saying that WMT has already cut prices on 7,000 products.  The “Bentonville behemoth” noted deflationary trends in general merchandise in doing so.  At the same time, Reuters reported that talks related to a potential GOOGL acquisition of HUBS are continuing.  (The potential for such a deal was reported in April, with the aim of allowing GOOGL to be better positioned against MSFT’s cloud-based applications offerings.)  Later, the Chairman of MS announced he will step down at the end of the year.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that CVS is seeking a private equity partner to fund the growth if its Oak Street Health (a primary care provider CVS bough in 2023).  After the close, PARA and CHTR announced a multi-year content distribution deal.  Also after the close, TSLA omitted its previous goal of delivering 20 million vehicles a year by the end of the decade.  The omission came in its latest impact report, published late Thursday.  (Analysts suggested this reflects on the company’s failure to deliver a more affordable $25k electric vehicle, but may also hint at the company’s shift toward a focus on robotaxis.)

In stock legal and governmental news, MDLZ was fined $365.72 million by EU antitrust regulators for impeding cross-border trade.  (MDLZ was found to have prevented retailers from freely sourcing products and forbidding its distributors from competing in areas beyond their assigned portion of the EU.)   At the same time, it was reported that MRNA, PFE, and BNTX are in talks with the multiple governments related to vaccines after more human cases of H5N1 Bird Flu have been found in the US and Australia.  Later, as predicted, the US Dept. of Justice filed suit (along with 30 states, including polar opposites CA and TX, and the District of Columbia) seeking to force a breakup of LYV from Ticketmaster, which LYV bought in 2010.  The suit alleges LYV monopolizes the ticket market, driving up prices and also hurting artists.  At the same time, a jury in Chicago ruled in favor of GSK and said that the plaintiffs had failed to prove the company’s Zantac drug was the cause of her cancer.  Later, NSC agreed to pay a $15 million civil penalty for future cleanup costs and $57.1 million in past cleanup costs related to the railroad’s 2023 train derailment and chemical spill in East Palestine, OH.

Elsewhere, the FAA said Thursday that BA faces a “long road” to address safety and quality issues.  The company must deliver its plan to address “systemic quality-control issues” on May 30.  Those problems caused the FAA to prohibit expansion of 737 MAX production and implemented additional on-site inspectors and audits of BA production after a myriad of problems.  At the same time, the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (McCaul) warned that the MSFT deal with UAE-backed AI firm G42 could involved the transfer of sophisticated ships and tools abroad.  The TX GOP Rep. said the deal may pose a national security risk given Chinese interests in UAE. McCaul said he will demand a comprehensive briefing from the Dept. of Commerce, which must approve licenses for the deal.  Later, the FDA advisory committee recommended the approval of GH’s blood test for colon or rectal cancer.  After the close, the SEC approved applications from Nasdaq, CBOE and NYSE to list ETFs tied to the spot price of cryptocurrency Ether.  Later, JPM confirmed reported from earlier in the week that it will pay a $100 million fine to the CFTC related to trade reporting lapses.

After the close, DECK, INTU, ROST, and WDAY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, CVCO missed on both the top and bottom line.  It is worth noting that WDAY lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Hong Kong (-1.38%), South Korea (-1.26%), Shenzhen (-1.23%), and Japan (-1.17%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday, but on much more modest moves so far.  The CAC (-0.17%), DAX (-0.37%), and FTSE (-0.41%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a modest +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.479% and Oil (WTI) is off by half a percent to $76.55 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday, April Core Durable Goods and April Durable Goods (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller at 9:35 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BAH.  There are no reported scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, BAH has reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In miscellaneous news, mortgage rates fell for the third consecutive week.  The US national average 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage fell below 7% to 6.94% (down from last week’s 7.02%).  Meanwhile, NVDA added more than $200 billion in market cap Thursday on its huge post-earnings stock price gains.  At the same time, Elon Musk announced that he no longer supports US tariffs on Chinese EVs.  Musk’s about face is speculated to be related to China’s treatment of TSLA.  Elsewhere, two US Senate Committees (Democrat majority) launched investigations into ex-President Trumps “quid pro quo” offer to rollback a series of environmental protections…in return for $1 billion in campaign donations from the oil industry.  (Leaders of OXY, CTLR, and ET held a Trump fundraiser in Houston after the offer.)  Finally, Fidelity said Thursday that the number of 401(k) accounts with a balance of more than $1 million that they house jumped 15% in Q1, reaching a record level.  Better yet, they say that number has increased another 43% since March.

In late-breaking news, the CEO of BA told investors to be prepared for plane deliveries not to improve in Q2 versus the dismal Q1 numbers.  He also said the company has already burned through $4 billion in cash in Q1 and expects the number for Q2 to be “a little worse.”  In fact, the new CEO (West) says BA will burn cash throughout 2024 as it tries to recover from massive safety and quality problems.  Elsewhere, CNBC reports the Commerce Dept. has $6 billion left of the $52 billion allocated by the CHIPS Act (meant to spur growth of US semiconductor design and manufacture (to reduce the US current dependence on foreign chip makers).  CNBC reports the remaining money will be allocated in smaller award directed toward smaller companies.  600 have submitted grant requests with only nine awarded so far. Commerce Sec. Raimondo said that 85% of the remaining money will be awarded by year end.  (Contrast the US’s $52 billion program with a new program approved this week in South Korea and aiming at doing the same for that country.  South Korea’s program is $19 billion in size. For reference, South Korea’s GDP is under $1.7 trillion while the US GDP is nearly $29 trillion.)

As a reminder, remember that Monday is a holiday and markets will be closed.  Also keep in mind that this is Friday…payday…and time to prepare your account for the long weekend news cycle. Finally, also make note the US securities market will begin its 1-day trade settlement (called “T+1”) down from the current 3-day settlement next week.  This change begins Tuesday, May 28.  (Also note that some analysts are nervous over the stress on the system of clearinghouses and brokerages.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to claw back some ground after Thursday’s post-open bearish run. All three major index ETFs are printing white body, inside day type candles in the premarket with QQQ the strongest (no wick) and DIA the weakest (a Doji). Yesterday’s candles were definitely ugly. However, we need to bear in mind that SPY is only three-quarters of a percent from its all-time high close, QQQ is less than 0.20% below its all-time high close, but DIA is a bit more than 2.26% from its all-time high close. The point is that one or even a few bad candles hardly change the character of this market. The bulls remain in control beyond the very, very short term. In fact, the early session action has SPY joining QQQ back above their T-lines (8ema) with DIA still well below its own. So, the short-term trend remains bullish (except on the DIA). At the same time, the mid-term is also very bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish. In terms of extension, after Thursday, SPY and QQQ are not extended at all from the T-line. However, DIA is over-extended to the downside and needs a pause or bounce. The T2122 indicator returned to the upper half of its oversold area. So, the bottom line is that the market has more room to run for the Bulls than Bears but both camps could still move at least some if they find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, again all 10 are well into the green at this point this morning with that biggest dog NVDA (+1.06%) and AI competitor AMD (+0.91%) out front dragging the QQQ higher again today.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service