Road to Wealth Archives - Page 102 of 141

Vaccine Hope Rallies the Bulls

July 2, 2020 by Ed Carter

A leaked (but not peer-reviewed) study from PFE showed they have a drug that may artificially create virus antibodies. This certainly helped market sentiment. Regardless, the bulls reversed overnight profit-taking and gapped markets up slightly. The rest of the day was rollercoaster ride sideways. At the close, the QQQ did back off of all-time high resistance but still ended at a new all-time high close. Both of the large-cap indices fared worse, leaving high wicks. Still, SPY closed up 0.72%, DIA down 0.20%, and QQQ up 1.17%. The VXX fell to 32.90 and T2122 climbed to 74.60. 10-year bond yields climbed to 0.674% and Oil (WTI) rose to $39.71/barrel.

During the day, the President told Fox News that he supports another round of direct payments to Americans. He went on to say he even wants to give out more money than Democrats (proposed back in May), but he wants it done properly. This reverses his “dead on arrival” statements about the Democratic plan. The move may be a political maneuver or may signal a change in his view of virus impact. Either way, the idea of more money in the hands of Americans can’t help but be bullish for stocks.

The main story is still the virus. More states rolled-back reopening measures such as indoor dining/bars (CA, NY, MI). In PA, Governor Wolf also announced an order to require the wearing of masks state-wide. OR Governor Brown ordered the same thing for her state. However, while President Trump said “he’s all for masks” he doesn’t feel we need a national mandate and still thinks the virus will just disappear someday.

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In the US, the numbers show we’ve now had 2,780,152 confirmed cases and 130,798 deaths. This includes another record day nationally, with over 50,200 new cases confirmed across the country. TX and NC were among the states that reported a record increase in cases on the day. In CA, Governor Newsom ordered the reclosure of all indoor activities (including businesses) in the state’s 19 most-affected (and populated) counties. At a national business level, MCD has paused their reopening for at least 21 days and AAPL closed 30 more stores (77 total now) in the hardest-hit areas.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 10,834,159 confirmed cases and 519,582 deaths. The W.H.O. said even some countries who had success controlling the virus may well need to reinstitute lockdowns. In Tokyo, the new outbreak continues as the city reported 100 new cases (still very manageable, but growing and they are considering reinstituting quarantine measures). In Australia, a scandal has hit as they have now traced the source of the new Melbourne outbreak. It seems hotel staff repeated had sex with different guests while the hotel was under quarantine…which if you have to get the disease certainly isn’t the worst way to contract it.

Overnight, the PFE vaccine news buoyed markets across the globe. In Asia, markets were strongly green (with the odd exception of Japan, which just eked out a positive close). In Europe, the same is true, with 1% or more gains across the major bourses. As of 7:30 am, US markets are looking toward the same type of day with futures now pointing to a gap higher of between 0.50% (QQQ) to 1.08% (DIA).

The major economic news for Thursday includes Jun Avg. Hourly Earnings, Import, Exports, Trade Balance, Weekly Jobless Claims, Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, and Jun Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am). There are no major earnings reports on the day.

Just in case you missed it, today is virtual Friday ahead of a 3-day weekend. So be sure to pay yourself and lock-in some profits ahead of a long news cycle. The bulls have been running the last 3 days and the downtrend is broken. However, only the QQQ can technically be said to be in an uptrend. So be careful getting too far out on the bullish limb. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go). And have a safe and enjoyable long weekend.

Daily trade ideas have been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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New Quarter Long Weekend Pause?

July 1, 2020 by Ed Carter

I suppose window-dressing was the order of the day Tuesday as a flat open gave way to a more-or-less all-day rally with the exception of profit-taking the last 5 minutes. The results were that the SPY gained 1.47%, the DIA gained 0.75%, and the QQQ gained 1.96%. This capped the best quarter since 1998 as the rally has been strong off the March Lows. The VXX was down to 33.95 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 65.91. Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $39.35/barrel and the 10-year bond yields gained just a touch to 0.656%.

Last night, the Senate unexpectedly approved an extension of the PPP loan/grant program as Democrats were granted a last-minute pushback on the expiration. Republicans had resisted even discussing additional relief until after recess (“maybe it’s not needed” grounds) until the surprise last-minute “unanimous consent” sought by Democrats was granted. However, this move is largely symbolic, as the program was set to expire with over $130 billion in unrequested loan/grant money available.

The main story remains the virus. In the US, the numbers show we have now had 2,727,996 confirmed cases and 130,123 deaths. There were over 48,000 new cases on the day. During his Senate testimony, Dr. Fauci (HHS) again sounded the alarm. He said states probably opened too early and few followed the Task Force or CDC advice. In particular, he noted that pushback against scientific advice is very concerning (referring to the government as well as public pushback). He said that we now have over 40,000 new cases per day on average and he will not be surprised if we reach 100,000 new cases per day if changes aren’t made fast.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 10,614,353 confirmed cases and 514,622 deaths. In Europe, the last intra-EU border was opened as Spain-Portugal crossings reopened after a 3-month shutdown. In Australia, Melbourne has locked down again after 2 weeks of double-digit percentage increase in new cases. The IMF reported today that Asia’s economy will shrink this year (-1.6% projected decline) for the first time in living memory. This came as both Japan and South Korea evaluate the next steps after new clusters were found in Tokyo and Seoul.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China and most of the smaller markets higher, but Japan South Korea and New Zealand lower. In Europe, markets are red almost across the board. (Greece being the lone green on the board.) This comes despite better than expected Mfg. PMI data out of Germany. However, it is worth noting that the DAX was also hit by a technical glitch that caused volume data to lag at the start of its session. As of 7:30 am, US futures are all red, down from 0.45% (QQQ) to 1.00% (DIA)

The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Payroll (8:15 am), Jun Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), Jun ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports include CPRI, GIS, M, SCHN, and STZ all before the open.

As we start the new quarter and ease into the long weekend ahead, it looks like markets may take a pause this morning. We did break the downtrend yesterday but have not started a new short-term uptrend yet. In addition, virus-related news will continue to be widespread, but Bulls have paid no notice so far. Just don’t get too far out on the bullish limb yet. Take some profits before the weekend, especially since it will be a long one. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Volatility Likely As Quarter Ends

June 30, 2020 by Ed Carter

Monday saw a half percent gap higher on higher than expected Pending Home Sales, but the gap was met with an immediate selloff back below flat. Then the bulls stepped in to take markets sharply higher into 11am. After that a meandering, volatile grind sideways took over for the next few hours until there was another sharp rally the last 10 minutes of the day, causing all 3 major indices to close very near the highs. At the close, the SPY was up 1.50%, the DIA up 2.29%, and the QQQ up 1.09%. The VXX fell back to 35.68 and T2122 returned to the mid-range at 52.31. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.635% and Oil (WTI) climbed back up to $39.63/barrel.

In the social media boycott story, CAG, CLX, DENN, EPC, F, HP, and MSFT all joined the boycott of FB advertising on Monday. While this list now includes many (most?) major brands, it is worth noting that these were never among the top FB advertisers anyway. So, the actual dollar impact of this boycott is limited.

After-hours it was reported the BAC, C, GS, JPM, and MS will keep their dividends for the quarter at the same level as before last week’s stress test. However, WFC will cut its dividend based on the new Fed requirements. No word yet on COF or USB (the 2 other major banks) dividends.

Last night, Fed Chair Powell’s Tuesday House Testimony test was also leaked. In it, he says the recovery path is “extraordinarily uncertain” and will depend on the success of measures to contain the virus surge. Powell is also expected to again urge Congress to continue Fiscal stimulus measures. In unrelated news, the Fed also announced that its last (9^th) virus lending program is now operational. The Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility will allow corporations to borrow at a much lower rate than the open market.

However, the main story remains the virus. In the US, the count shows we have now had 2,682,011 confirmed cases and 128,788 deaths nationally. This includes 31 states with increasing rates on the 7-day average (10 of those being 50% worse than last week), with only 4 having decreasing averages. 14 states have paused their reopening with some even rolling back the process. Ominously, CDC Deputy Dir. Schuchat told the Journal of the American Medical Assoc. that the US has reached the point where there are way too many cases and spread too widely to control the outbreak (as has been done in other countries who used stricter measures and had more compliant populations).

Globally, the number of cases has topped 10 million, at 10,433,289 confirmed and 508,804 deaths. In the UK, Leicester (330k residents) became the first city in the country to reimpose a lockdown. In addition, the EU left the US off the “safe list” meaning that travelers from the US to Europe will still be required to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. In China, the Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected (into the expansion area). However, a new strain of flu (a variation of swine flu) was also discovered that is widespread among pork populations. This new virus has the characteristics to become another pandemic if not controlled.

Overnight, Asian markets were volatile, but green across the board, on news out of China. In Europe, markets are mixed and volatile, but leaning toward the red side overall. However, again these are smaller moves as the bourses stay close to flat. As of 7:30 am, US futures are all red, but only slightly on the down side of flat.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to June Chicago PMI (9:45 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). However, there are 4 Fed speakers, including the previously mentioned Chair Powell House Testimony (12:30 pm). The others are Williams (11 am), Brainard (11 am), and Kashkari (2 pm). The only major earnings reports on the day are AYI and CAG before the open and FDX after the close.

Once again, it looks like a volatile day for markets. We face fear from the coronavirus, Joe Biden saying he would roll-back tax cuts, and even a new potential viral threat from swine. On the plus side, the Fed is likely tell us they stand ready and there are even signs of China’s economy expanding. Today is also quarter-end. So, we may see window-dressing or rotation. Keep your focus on the short-term chart and right now that chart says the trend remains bearish with potential support below. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus Surging Here But China Recovering

June 29, 2020 by Ed Carter

After a small gap down Friday, TX began to rollback its reopening and FL did the same later in the day. That was all the Bears needed to crush the bulls during the session. All 3 major indices put in large black candles and closed near the lows. At the close, SPY was down 2.38%, DIA down 2.74%, and QQQ down 2.36%. The VXX rose to 37.60 and the T2122 (4-week Avg. High-Low Ratio) fell back deep into oversold territory at 6.31. The 10-year bond yield fell to 0.641% and Oil (WTI) was off to $38.20/barrel.

On Sunday, HHS Sec Azar said “the window is closing” for the US to get virus spread under control and “we have to act.” This comes as many states began rolling-back or postponing their reopening measures. This may be a signal for possible rotation from “reopening stocks” (like travel, restaurant, and retail names) back toward “stay home stocks” (like ecommerce, grocery, online services).

Another major story is advertisers taking a stand by stopping their advertising spend on social media over that channel’s failure to reign in hate speech and disinformation on their platforms. On Friday, UL was the big name. After-hours, KO joined the effort, then DEO and SBUX added their names to 160 other major advertisers that are taking part in the boycott on Saturday. In addition to the 160, other major advertisers such as PG are still reviewing their advertising channels “to ensure content accuracy and respect to all people.” So, FB and TWTR stocks were hammered on Friday and that news did not improve over the weekend.

On Sunday, China announced May Industrial Production numbers. These showed that profits rose 6% year-on-year, to $82 billion for the month. This was the first monthly profit China’s Industrial Sector has seen since November and was a vast improvement over April’s 4% year-on-year decline. This is evidence that China’s economy is now rebounding as cost remains under control and output has reached profitable levels. Analysts still expect Chinese government economic policy to remain supportive for some time. However, the profit is a good sign that the second-largest economy is starting to come out of the trough.

However, the main story remains the virus, especially in the US. The count shows we have now had 2,637,180 confirmed cases and 128,438 deaths nationally. 36 states have daily new case rates that rose more than 10% (12 of those rose more than 50%) from the prior week. Only 2 states had falling new case rates. However, economic activity such as driving/public transport use, hotel occupancy, and restaurant bookings all continue to increase nationally.

Globally, the number of cases topped 10 million, with 10,272,143 confirmed cases and 504,965 deaths. While it is Brazil, Peru, and Chile that are the South American countries with the most rampant outbreaks. However, it was Argentina that reinstituted lockdown in the capital Buenos Aires amidst exponential growth in new cases. In the UK, the city of Leicester (midlands) is publicly debating going back into lockdown due to a spike in cases in the city.

The only major economic news for Monday is May Pending Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports for the day are limited to MU after the close. However, also of note is that CHK (the poster boy for Shale Oil producers) filed for bankruptcy Sunday and expects that move to wipe out $7 billion in debt. It is unclear if this reads-through to other shale producers since the price has been back at levels (near $40/barrel) that are purportedly profitable for many of them. One last item is that BA is reportedly starting its 3-days of recertification test flights for the FAA.

It’s looking like a volatile day for markets as the fear of another shutdown looms and bullish views of a recovery fight it out. However, remain wary of the potential for profit-taking or rebalancing as the quarter ends Tuesday and many funds will be making this a short week, if they come into the trading room at all. Keep your focus on the short-term chart and right now that chart says the trend is bearish with potential support in the large-caps now at hand. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Trying But Virus Threat Remains

June 26, 2020 by Ed Carter

After a small gap down (on higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims), the bulls stepped in Thursday and rallied for the day. The downtrend remains in place, but it was a nice white candle (closing near the highs) in all 3 major indices. The SPY closed up 1.07%, the DIA up 1.10%, and QQQ up 0.95%. VXX fell back to 35.39and T2122 climbed out of oversold territory to 29.25. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.682% and Oil (WTI) climbed back to $39.08/barrel.

The financials led the market higher on Thursday as traders hoped that another announced decrease in bank regulation would lead to more profits. However, after-hours, the Fed told the big banks that they must suspend buybacks and cap dividends at current levels for at least the 3^rd quarter. This came after the Fed reported that the annual stress test found some banks would be dangerously close to the minimum capital levels needed because of the coronavirus. Banks will also be required to resubmit their loan payout plan every quarter in additional scrutiny caused by Fed concern of potential loan defaults.

The other major story on the day was the virus, especially in the US. The count shows we now have had 2,504,676 confirmed cases and 126,785 deaths. The national 7-day avg. of new cases is the highest it has been at over 31,100 per day (a 34% increase in the average from a week ago). In TX, the outbreak caused Gov. Abbott to announce the halting of the state’s reopening. In FL, Gov. DeSantis also said “the state now has no plans” for continuing its reopening. Out in CA, Gov. Newsom had to declare a budget emergency so that the state could shift more funds into testing, PPE, and medical equipment. Overall, 30 states reported an increase in the number of new cases, 12 had a new high daily case count and 16 states had rising virus hospitalizations.

Globally, the headline numbers are 9,738,374 confirmed cases and 492,390 deaths. Brazil remains the world epicenter as it reported over 39,000 new cases Thursday. Peru also had another record high case count. Further North, Mexico also is seeing a surge in infections, including the Finance Minister who tested positive two days after a video showed him standing right next to their President and the other cabinet members.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. Hong Kong was the only exception as the HSI lost almost a percent. In Europe, markets are also green across the board so far. The 3 major bourses are all up over 1.25% halfway through their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed, with the big 3 indices just on either side of flat.

The major economic news for Friday includes May Personal Spending (8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). There are no major earnings reports on the day. However, it was reported early that mortgage bailout requests rose this last week, now accounting for 8.8% of all mortgages in trouble.

It’s still early, but it is looking like markets want to drift higher toward the weekend. However, be wary of the potential for profit-taking as the quarter winds down and of the weekend news cycle (again likely to be dominated by bad virus news). Also remember this is payday, so lock-in some profit if you can. Focus on the short-term chart in front of you and be ready for the whipsaw that has been the rule for some time. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus Spread Draws Market Focus

June 25, 2020 by Ed Carter

The bears roared on Wednesday with virus resurgence fears leading to large Evening Star type patterns after the day’s big black candles. A 0.70% gap down led to a strong selloff that lasted all morning. The afternoon saw a choppy sideways grind the rest of the day. For the day SPY lost 2.51%, DIA lost 2.63%, and even QQQ lost 2.06% after the big tech names finally gave up about 10:30am. If there was any good news for the bulls, it was that all 3 major indices closed up off the lows. However, that isn’t much. The VXX rose to 36.72 and T2122 fell dramatically to 2.37 (far into oversold territory). The 10-year bond yield fell slightly to 0.679% and Oil (WTI) fell almost 6% to $38.01/barrel.

During the day, perhaps in an attempt to buoy markets, it was reported that the Fed had agreed to loan $2.3 Trillion, but so far had only loaned $143 Billion. So, at least in theory, the Fed has 94% of its powder dry on the loan front. In other Washington news, for the second time this week Treasury Sec. Mnuchin told a reporter he may consider extending the 2019 Income Tax filing deadline. This time the potential extension would be to September 15 (from the current deadline of July 15). However, as in the Monday interview, he said “as of now, we’re not intending to do it…but we may consider it.”

However, by far the biggest story on the day was the resurgence of the virus. The global headline numbers are 9,555,804 confirmed cases and 485,573 deaths. The WHO said that the peak has not yet been reached in the Americas with more than a million new cases in the last week. However, Europe (with the exception of Germany) continues its easing and reopening. For example, many tourist attractions opened across France today.

In the US, we now have had 2,462,713 confirmed cases and 124,282 deaths. The count made Wednesday as the worst number of cases we have seen so far, with 45,557 new confirmed cases in the country. CA (7,149), FL (5,511), TX (5,489) were the worst-hit states, but there were 26 states seeing an increase in new cases on the day and 30 that saw at least a 5% increase in their 7-day average of new cases, while 4 more states with an average rising less than 5%. There was also a rise in virus hospitalizations across 14 states. In related news, the early epicenters (NY, NJ, CT) have now imposed a 14-day quarantine on travelers coming from states with the highest infection rates (AL, AR, AZ, FL, NC, SC, TX, UT, WA).

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly significantly red. However, China stayed just on the green side of flat and Taiwan gained 0.42%. In Europe, markets are mixed so far with Germany and France green, while the UK is in the red. There is a similar mix across the smaller markets. As of 7:30 am, US futures are leaning toward the red side with large-caps pointing toward a gap lower of about 0.4% and the NASDAQ just on the red side of flat.

The major economic news for Thursday includes May Durable Goods, Q1 GDP, May Retail Inventories, May Trade Balance, and Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am). There are also 3 Fed speakers Kaplan (9:30 am), Bostic (11 am), and Mester (12 pm). Major earning s reports for the day include ACN, DRI, MKC, RAD, and WOR before the open. After the close, NKE and SNX report.

It’s early, but it looks like markets are continuing to fear the virus more than they expect a V-shaped recovery. Remember this is not par for the course as the Bulls have ignored the virus and all bad news for some time. So, a reversal of mood could happen a the drop of a hat. Also, keep in mind that economic news may carry a bigger stick in this environment. Finally, we have Quarter-end rebalancing coming. So, it is possible that fund profit-takers and rebalancers cause a rotation. Keep watching the short-term chart and be ready for the whipsaw that has been the norm. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fear of Virus Resurgence in the Markets

June 24, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up just under a percent on Tuesday and then proceeded to chop sideways until reaching the highs at 2pm. From there we saw a steady selloff into the close. For the day, SPY was up 0.44%, DIA up 0.45%, and QQQ up 0.85%. However, none of the index candles looked particularly bullish at the close. The large-caps both had black bodies and the QQQ put in a Shooting Star type candle. VXX was down again to 34.45 and T2122 fell back to mid-range at 55.32. The 10-year bond yield rose slightly to 0.713% and Oil (WTI) fell to $40.24/barrel. However, the story of the day was that AAPL and AMZN (and FB to a lesser extent) held markets up, particularly the QQQ by themselves for most of the day. All 3 companies printed record-high closes on the day.

During the day, President Trump told reporters Tuesday that he is open to more stimulus, specifically more checks for individuals. Treasury Sec. Mnuchin also said he hoped Congress would pass such a plan by the end of July. Senate Republicans have opposed such plans to this point. However, the Administration backing may change their political calculus on this issue.

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 9,381,389 confirmed cases and 480,401 deaths. The German meat-packing plant outbreak has expanded past 1,500 cases and another such plant has found 23 cases so far. The government has been quick to lockdown a second district of the country. However, the UK is headed the other direction, announcing broad reopening and even a reduction of social-distancing distance to 1 meter to help restaurants and pubs increase capacity, all to begin July 4. Ironically, the EU is now debating a measure to ban travelers from the US even as its countries open more. They are citing the haphazard rules and response in the US as the cause for concern. In Asia, Tokyo’s Governor said they found a new workplace cluster and are now expecting “quite a large number” of new cases as test results come back.

In the US, we now have had 2,424,493 confirmed cases and 123,476 deaths. 25 of the states saw an increase in the rate of new cases with a national total of 35,600 new cases on the day. CA, TX, FL, and AZ all saw a record number of new cases. TX Gov. Abbott told state residents “the safest place for you is at home.” Meanwhile, FL saw more areas make masks mandatory. However, it is worth noting that even though both the R-naught (spread rate) and hospitalizations are rising in lock-step with new cases, the national daily death rate trend (which lags) continues to fall. So, as mentioned, reopening continues with examples like NY, which has reopened its beaches ahead of the July 4 holiday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed and generally closer to flat. The exceptions were South Korea with a 1.42% gain, New Zealand with a 1.15% gain, and India with a 1.58% loss. In Europe, we see red across the board as virus resurgence has sparked fear. The big 3 bourses (CAC, DAX, and FTSE) are all down about 2% so far today. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap lower of about 0.8% in the large-caps and 0.4% in the QQQ.

The only major economic news for Wednesday is Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and an FOMC Speaker (Bullard at 3 pm). It might be worth noting that Bullard is an opponent of the idea (reported under strong consideration) of the Fed pinning bond interest rates by buying/selling whatever it takes to keep rates at a target. The only major earnings reports on the day are PDCO and WGO before the open and FUL and KBH after the close.

It’s early, but it looks like markets (at least the large-caps) are having trouble getting through resistance at recent highs. This morning we look to be following Europe on the daily gap open. With no major news scheduled today and Quarter-end rebalancing coming, we may see the bears push a little on the drift. Watch the short-term chart and be ready for the whipsaw that has been the norm. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

After Scare Bulls Look to Rally

June 23, 2020 by Ed Carter

Monday was a blah summer day as markets shook off a small gap-down and trended to the bullish side in a volatile fashion, but in a smaller range, all day. The result gave us a white candle in the short-term downtrend, but no major change in sentiment. On the day SPY closed up 0.66%, DIA up 0.57%, and QQQ up 1.02% as AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG led the market. VXX fell to 35.09, the 10-year bond rose very slightly to 0.704%, and Oil (WTI) rose 2% to close at $40.60/barrel.

After hours SoftBank announced it will sell 65% of its stake in TMUS, which represents 198 million shares. TMUS said it would offer 134 million of those shares to the public and give 10 million additional shares to the underwriters of that IPO. That will represent an over 10% dilution of current outstanding shares.

White House Trade Advisor Navarro scared global markets (including US Futures) overnight when he told Fox News that “the China deal is over” (implying the trade deal was dead). However, both he and President Trump walked back the statement to say the deal is fully intact. Navarro’s clarification said the original statement was just supposed to indicate the White House does not trust the Chinese. Markets recovered after the denials and clarification.

Also overnight, the President signed an executive order to freeze H1-B (tech workers), H2-B (low-skill workers), H-4 (worker spouse), L (intracompany transfer), and J (exchange worker/student) visas through the end of the year. The move is aimed at forcing jobs to go to US workers and will prevent 525,000 jobs from going to non-nationals. However, an administration source told CNBC that they actually expect only about 50,000 of those jobs to actually be filled by Americans. The US Chamber of Commerce and major tech companies oppose the rule and have said the move will stifle economic recovery.

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 9,215,127 confirmed cases and 474,955 deaths. The WTO said world trade dropped by 18.5% in the second quarter as a result of virus-control measures. In Germany, a district has been locked back down related to the meatpacking plant outbreak as officials attack the problem in a stereotypical organized, and efficient manner. South Korea is also scrambling to clamp down on a second wave of outbreaks. On the opposite side of response, Brazil saw over 21,000 new confirmed cases Monday with a very spotty or non-existent government reaction.

In the US, we now have had 2,388,225 confirmed cases and 122,611 deaths. 12 states reported record high new cases among the 23 with rising rates. TX Governor Abbott told a presser that “additional tough measures are going to be necessary” if cases and hospitalizations continue to climb at current rates. LA said it will push back phase 3 of its reopening, originally scheduled for this week. Meanwhile, the CDC says it has developed a single test for both the coronavirus and the flu. When it is approved from the FDA, this single test will help ease testing infrastructure burden in the fall.

Overnight, Asian markets suffered the jolt of Navarro’s statements but ended mostly in the green. However, gains were uneven with most barely above flat while Hong Kong and India both gained over 1.5%. Malaysia, Indonesia, and New Zealand were the only red on the day. In Europe, we see green across the board (and much stronger green to boot). The DAX is up 2.69%, CAC up 1.66%, and FTSE up 1.26% so far today. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher, but they remain volatile and mixed. SPY is looks at +1.33%, DIA at +0.80%, and QQQ at +0.58%. However, as mentioned, these numbers are very volatile as traders wake up and absorb overnight news.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes June Mfg. PMI and June Service PMI (both at 9:45 am), and May New Home Sales (10 am). However, the only major earnings report on the day is INFO before the open.

It’s still early, but it is looking like markets want to rebound this morning, focused on recovery, and not the recent case increases. Be aware of that post-open data that may move markets. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you, because whipsaw has been the rule for some time. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

There are no Trade Ideas for Friday. However, also be aware that the normal distribution of trade ideas has been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App in the future anyway. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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US Case Increase Scares World Markets

June 22, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets saw a gap higher and then a volatile all-day selloff that may have been partially driven by quadruple witching on Friday. The result was a large Bearish Engulfing signal in both large-cap indices. The techs faired a bit better and none of the big 3 indices closed on the lows. On the day the SPY closed down 1.04%, DIA closed down 1.06%, and QQQ closed flat down 0.02%. The VXX was up a tad to 36.90 and the T2122 (4-week high-low ratio) fell strongly to 48.86 (mid-range). Oil (WTI) had been above $40 much of the day, but closed back at $39.57/barrel and the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.692%.

It is also worth noting that for the week the market was both volatile and bullish. Still, we do appear to be beginning a daily downtrend with a 6/8 high, 6/15 low, and a 6/16 lower-high. However, there is some potential support (including the 200sma in SPY) before we reach a new lower-low.

Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that both the Fed and Bank of England are strongly considering following the examples of Japan and Australia. Specifically, they are looking at using bond-buying to pin interest rates (control the yield curve at every maturity). This would be Central Banks actually coming out and saying “we are the buyer of last resort…financial market prices will not be allowed to fall.” It would cap interest rates (hurt savers), devalue the currency (in turn increasing commodity prices), and theoretically cause a surge in borrowing/spending. The same move was scorned for 4 (years since Japan did it) and mocked for decades before that as a recipe for an economic bubble and collapse. However, regardless of opinions or actual merits of the policy, there is no doubt that it would be massively bullish for stock markets. Despite the reports, there has been no public or official word by either Central Bank.

In Virus news, the global headline numbers are 9,072,642 confirmed cases and 471,175 deaths. This includes a record of 180,000 new cases on Sunday. Germany, which has had its outbreak under control, has seen a major new outbreak at the country’s largest meat processing plant. The plant has found over 1,000 new cases among its 6,000 employees (and worse yet, had no address on file for one-third of the 6,000). This highlights the problems faced by meat processors like HRL, TSN, SAFM, and IBA. For example, China has halted imports of TSN meat products after a TSN plant outbreak in AR (693 cases). That said, the easing continues for the most part globally.

In the US, we now have had 2,356,715 confirmed cases and 122,249 deaths. 23 states had increasing rates on the week (10 of those had at least an increase of 50% over the number of new cases the prior week). This trend includes 2 straight days of the US reporting over 30,000 new cases (we had no reports over 29,000 since May 1^st before Friday). However, the President told his Saturday rally that he has asked for the testing to be slowed down (to avoid finding more cases). This all comes as trends are showing a shift to more cases being found in younger populations as a lack of mask or social distancing is becoming more and more common while reopening gains speed.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red on news of the resurgence of cases in the US. However, the loses were not great and Shenzhen and India were the exceptions that managed to stay above break-even. In Europe, markets are following Asian with red across the board with the exceptions of Belgium, Greece, and Denmark which are just above flat so far today. US Futures were volatile overnight. At 7:30 am, those US futures are pointing to a 0.4% gap down in the DIA, a 0.3% gap down in the SPY, and a 0.2% gap down in the QQQ.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to May Existing Home Sales (10 am) and there are no major earnings reports on the day. It’s still early, but it is looking like markets want to continue the short-term downtrend on virus-impact fear. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you, because whipsaw has been the rule for some time. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Quad-Witching And Fed Speakers on Tap

June 19, 2020 by Ed Carter

Thursday was another rollercoaster day for markets, but within a tight range compared to recent days. And just like a rollercoaster, after the ride, we ended up about where we started. The SPY gained 0.04%, the DIA fell 0.14%, and the QQQ gained 0.27%. The VXX fell just a bit to 36.31 and T2122 fell to 66.15. Oil (WTI) was unchanged and the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.707%.

Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected at 1.5 million. However, the market shrugged that off with only a slight gap down. HTZ also called off its controversial secondary offering after the SEC questioned an IPO by a bankrupt company.

On the Virus front, the global headline numbers are 8,607,857 confirmed cases and 456,943 deaths. A new study out of China (journal published Thursday) found that coronavirus antibodies may only last 2-3 months post-infection. However, this was a small study, based on only 37 people. Meanwhile, Brazil saw a 2.4% increase in cases and a 2.7% increase in deaths on Thursday and will cross the million case mark today. In the UK, they have dumped their own contact tracing App (only could identify 4% of iPhones in tests) and have gone with the GOOG/AAPL joint venture App (finds 99% of all phones) instead.

In the US, we now have 2,263,756 confirmed cases and 120,688 deaths reported to date. AZ, FL, CA, SC, and TX all saw record-high single day increases in cases on Thursday. FL saw a 3.9% increase in new cases while TX cases also jumped again by 3.6% along with a seventh straight day of record hospitalizations. Houston was hit particularly hard as its hospitalizations jumped 12% Thursday. Governors in FL and TX have so far tried to brush off the increases as nothing more than the result of more testing and groups of migrant workers. The data does not support those claims.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. China was the leader and Singapore the only 1% loser. In Europe, the same is true with the big 3 (CAC, DAX, FTSE) all up over 1% at this point in the day. US Futures climbed overnight on reports China will increase its US Ag-product purchases to stay in-line with the trade deal. At 7:30 am, those US futures are pointing to a gap higher of 0.8%-1%.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to a number of FOMC speakers including Rosengren (10:15 am), Chair Powell (12 pm), and Mester (1 pm). Treasury yields did move higher overnight in front of those 3 speeches. However, Friday is also a Quadruple-Witching day and that may well move prices at day end. Major earnings reports are very limited with only JBL and KMX reporting before the open.

It is looking like the bulls want to make a push at week’s end. However, intraday swings are the norm. As mentioned, beware of pinning and other odd moves or volume related to quad-witching in the afternoon. Keep your eyes on the short-term chart in front of you and be prepared for the whipsaw. As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go). Plan the trade and trade the plan. And remember that Friday is payday.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching