Thursday was an interesting day in markets.  Another 5.25 million jobs lost (22 million in the last 4 weeks), a big drop in housing starts and Mr. Market looked right past those numbers to a rosier future.  Regardless, stocks opened with a slight gap up and then vacillated the rest of the day, closing back near where they opened.  As has been the case lately, the tech-heavy QQQ fared better than the other indices.  On the day, the SPY closed up 0.43%, the DIA flat at up 0.05%, and the QQQ up 1.82%.  All three printed indecisive candles, but the QQQ was the best of the three.  The VXX gained slightly to 40.74, while the 10-year bond yield fell again to 0.617 as money continued to chase safety in Treasuries.  Oil (WTI) fell again, closing below $20 at $19.58/barrel.

During the day, Eastern states decided to extend their shutdowns through May 15 in a coordinated decision among NY, NJ, PA, MA, CT, DE, RI governors.  In the Midwest, the governors of MI, OH, WI, MN, IL, IN, and KY announced they formed a regional partnership to coordinate their own regional economic reopening.  Out west, CA Governor Newsome promised new unemployment benefits and incentives to cover health workers who stay on the job.

After hours, BA announced it will resume production at its Seattle-area factories as soon as Monday.  This will include 27,000 employees (17% of their workforce) and all the returning workers will be required to wear masks, maintain social distancing and will be provided with both periodic wellness checks and contact tracing for anyone who does test positive.  This is the first major business reopening to be announced.

At the nightly event, the 3-phase approach for reopening the economy was announced.  The guidelines are short on definitions (for example, what exactly are “downward trajectory,” “robust testing,” or even “vulnerable people”).  However, ANY “one size does not fit all” plan would likely be short on clarifications.  The strategy basically looks for a non-specified decline in the rate of new cases to lead to the first phase of easing.  The plan puts most of the responsibility on states for decisions, testing, border control (to avoid cross-jurisdiction spread), etc.  

In an afternoon call to Governors, the President warned that states should also be prepared to handle new flare-ups of the virus after easing.  During that call, there was push-back to the plan, saying more testing should be in place before the reopening is launched.  Drs. Fauci and Birx have repeatedly said, testing, isolation, and tracing are the key to controlling the virus spread, as well as increasing public confidence. However, the President reportedly replied that more testing will need to come after reopening because a working economy is a priority.

For reference, the US now processes about 140,000 tests each day (more than any other country on a “total tests” basis, but still very low on a per-capita basis).  That amounts to testing only 0.08% of the American workforce daily.  So, even if just 10% of the workforce returns to “work away from home” AND we double US testing capacity, we would still only be testing about 1.5% of the active workforce per day.  Worse yet, these tests are a picture in time.  This means each worker may need to be tested many, many times unless or until an effective treatment or vaccine are available.  Is that enough? The President, Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, and the Task Force seem to think it could be.

Either way, the President made a tough decision that we can’t wait any longer.  When the Governors agree, we will start to reopen (probably along regional lines).  If that approach works, great! We’ll get back to some sort of new normal in 2-3 months.  If the plan causes a relapse, we’ll just lockdown again, and come up with a different approach.  Yes, some people may be lost, but we’re all going to die someday and there’s no way to say someone might not have died at home or from a trip to the grocery anyway.  Cold? Maybe.  However, there is no good answer for recovering without risk of relapse into a run-away spread.  So, we were always going to face this decision unless we decided to wait for a proven treatment or vaccine.  And that just isn’t in the cards from a political, economic, or general public patience standpoint.

On that treatment front, some VERY preliminary testing of a GILD drug was leaked Thursday night.  This leak showed the drug may have real potential benefits.  However, remember that this information is based on the results from only 25% of the study’s patients, was an uncontrolled (no placebo group) test, and looked at only one dosing level.  Still, it is a welcome ray of hope and should buoy market spirits (at least for GILD, which rose 15% after-hours on the leak).

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  In Europe, markets are even more strongly green at this point in their day.  This includes the 3 major bourses (FTSE, DAX, CAC) all up about 4%.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing toward a 2-3% gap higher on optimism about the new drug and economic opening. 

There is no major economic news for Friday.  On the earnings front, CFG, KSU, PG, RF, SLB, and STT all report before the open.

The uptrend remains in place, but gaps and volatility also remain the norm.  Optimism seems to be the rule of the morning, but we are also headed into another weekend.  So, traders need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take in a news-driven market.

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist on Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw economic news dampen markets as Retail Sales came in much lower than expected (largest drop since ’92), more big banks all had huge (oddly very close percentage-wise) misses, and the worst reading in NY Empire State Mfg. Index since 1946 led to a 2% gap down at the open.  After a volatile rally most of the day, all the major indices sold off the last hour.  As a result, the SPY closed down 2.12%, the DIA down 1.92%, and the tech-buoyed QQQ down just 1.15%.  All three posted indecisive candles with the QQQ being a Harami Spinning Top and the others Doji.  The VXX closed up 8% to 40.41 while the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.633% as investors chased Treasury safety.  Oil (WTI) was below $20 much of the day, but closed at $20.23/barrel on rumors the US government would cap US production by buying more oil for the national strategic reserve.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, there were crowds of unmasked, virus control opponents protesting the state’s stay-at-home order on Wednesday.  Two conservative groups had called the protest, but it was apparently adopted by others as a good number were also carrying rifles and protesting gun laws possibly among other things.  This follows a much smaller group (dozens) who held the same type of protest in Raleigh, North Carolina for an hour on Tuesday.  The point is that some groups are pushing (following the President’s lead, or maybe leading the President?) for an end to virus-control measures that they believe are hurting (the economy) worse than the virus is hurting people.  So far, this seems to be a politically-centric phenomenon but certainly bears notice as most still predict months or measures of some kind ahead.

After the close, Bloomberg reported that the small business Payroll Protection loan/grant fund ran out of money on Wednesday night.  The Treasury Dept. and the SBA have not announced statistics recently.  However, based on the applications processed by just 3 large banks (JPM, WFC, and C) and the SBA saying the average approved loan was $240,000, the math seems right.  At his daily rally, the President took the opportunity to blame the lack of replenishment funds (among other things) on Democrats.  He also reiterated that it was up to states to do the testing (but the Feds will help if needed) and said he expected states and municipalities to control their own borders to prevent cross-jurisdiction spread. If possible, that too would be a sizable economic obstacle.

In Germany, PM Merkel announced tentative steps to begin reopening its economy.  While most restrictions will stay in place until at least May 3^rd, some small shops (less than 8,500sq ft in size) will be allowed to open as soon as next week.  The timing of this announcement was a bit odd as coincidentally Germany reported a jump in new cases on the day.  In the UK, the cabinet is set to extend its nation-wide lockdown for at least 3 more weeks.  In Spain the death toll rose slightly again and the WHO noted that Europe has half the world’s infections (1 million+ cases and 84,000+ deaths) and is not out of the woods. In doing so, it recommended that any EU reopening goes slow to hopefully reduce the chance of more major outbreaks. 

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers crossed 2 million as we now have 2,096,549 confirmed cases and 135,661 deaths.  At the same time, in the US we now have 644,348 confirmed cases and 28,554 deaths. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with Japan, Hong Kong, Australia down, while Chinese markets were up slightly.  In Europe, markets are slightly in the green across the board at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing toward a small gap higher in front of the big economic news coming in an hour. 

Thursday’s major economic news includes Mar. Building Permits, Mar. Housing Starts, Mar. Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am).  A Fed member (Williams) also speaks at 2pm.  Major earnings reports include ABT, BLK, BK, KEY, MS, NUE, and TSM all before the open.  ISRG reports after the close.

The uptrend remains in place, but volatility continues to be high and gaps have become the norm.  The economic reports at 8:30 am are likely to call the tune for markets today, especially the Initial Jobless Claims that estimates are putting at 5 million.  However, the unveiling of general reopening guidelines could lift markets, helping traders again look ahead past the short-term economic news. 

Regardless of what happens at the open, in this market, traders need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was another crazy day for markets as the strong rebound rally continued in the face of major bank earnings misses, companies dropping forward guidance, and mostly “not as bad as expected” news.  The major indices gapped 2% higher and while the large-caps had some volatility, the techs continued to rampage higher.  As a result, the SPY closed up 2.95%, the DIA up 2.39%, and the QQQ up 4.35%.  As expected, the VXX was down again to 37.40.  The 10-year bond yield also fell slightly to 0.747%.  However, Oil (WTI), a major barometer of the economy, got hammered again, down 7.5% to $20.74/barrel. 

In terms of virus treatments, a French study (84 patients) released Tuesday evening found that the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine does not help COVID-19 patients (at least statistically-significantly).  Worse yet, the drug does cause serious side effects.  As a result, the study recommended it should be discontinued as a COVID therapy.  This “should” have a negative impact as markets can cross off another miracle.

In relation to economic recovery, a Harvard paper published in the Journal of Science Tuesday suggested that in the absence of a new treatment or a faster-than-expected vaccine, social distancing, school closures and stay-at-home orders will be needed until 2022, at least on an intermittent basis.  Meanwhile, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said Tuesday afternoon that a May 1 easing target is “a bit overly optimistic.”  In addition, he said any easing will be on a rolling basis, not all at once (due to a lack of testing capacity). 

On that “Opening” front, another regional group of Governors (this one in the Mid-West) has set up a state-level committee to coordinate when and how to ease their lockdowns.  The Governors of California and Connecticut Governors said to ask them again in mid-May what the timeline will be for easing restrictions. However, the President said some will open even before the end of April.  He also acknowledged reality, saying it is up to the states to make their own timing decisions and to do their own testing. He also said they (states) can come to the Federal government for help, regardless, they (states) will open very soon, very powerfully, and he will hold the Governors accountable very strongly. 

In business news, BA announced that customers canceled orders for 150 of the 737 Max planes last month.  AMZN also announced it is slashing affiliate commissions (as much as 63%).  The reason behind this move us unclear, but this is another big revenue hit for publishers, social marketers, and other businesses.  However, on a positive note, AAPL announced it had shipped 2.5 million iPhones in China during March, a sharp rebound after the worst month ever in February.  

In follow-up to Easter’s OPEC+ production cuts, a little clarity may be coming to how President Trump plans to cut US production by 300,000 barrel/day. On Tuesday, the Texas Railroad Commission began discussing production caps for the first time in 50 years.  However, there was immediate fierce pushback from companies such as FANG, which said it would halt all drilling in Texas if the state instituted any caps.

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers crossed 2 million as we now have 2,016,840 confirmed cases and 126,568 deaths.  At the same time, in the US we now have 614,246 confirmed cases and 26,064 deaths. 

Overnight, Asian markets were down across the board, South Korea being the exception. In Europe, markets are heavily in the red (about 2% on average) at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing toward a 1.5% gap lower on heavy earnings misses from major banks.  Oddly all the banks seemed to miss estimates by 45-46%, yet run completely different businesses with different focuses and estimates…funny how that happened.

On Wednesday, major economic news includes Mar Core Retail Sales and Apr. NY Empire Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), Mar. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Business Inventories (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  Major earning s reports include ASML, BAC, C, GS, PNC, SCHW, UNH, and USB all before the open.

It appears traders have been smoking that hopium, “pricing markets for perfection” amidst what certainly appears to be massive economic uncertainty.  Meanwhile, the major analysts and economists are saying the downturn will likely be the worst seen since the Great Depression, with literally millions of small businesses at risk of closing and tens of millions of loans at risk of default.  Something has to give…both can’t be right.

While the uptrend continues, we are now in a very uncertain earnings season and the economic news will continue to be bad for some time.  Remember, while it may be time to start dipping your toe in again according to the chart, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

No Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday started with a small gap down and then a selloff that more than faded all the progress the bulls had made since Wed.  morning among large-caps.  However, the tech-heavy QQQs bucked the trend by rallying all day after the gap down.  At the end of the day the bulls had pushed back up toward the open to where the SPY was down 0.92%, the DIA down 1.25%, but the QQQ up 1.08%.  The VXX fell again to 40.68 and 10-year bond yield rose to 0.762%.  Oil (WTI) fell despite Sunday’s OPEC+ production cut deal as it closed at $22.60/barrel.  From a technical standpoint, the QQQ printed a bullish engulfing candle and SPY printed a black hammer with both of the large-caps avoiding printing Evening Star signals.

During the day the President felt the need to assert his belief that he had sole power (total power) to ReOpen America Businesses. Contrary to his assertion, the Governors of six Northeast states (NY, NJ, RI, DE, CN, and PA), which actually issued lock-down orders, formed their own state-level working group to coordinate their own decisions on the matter.  Meanwhile, out west, the states of CA, WA, and OR also formed a similar regional working group.  The key take-away is not the President’s belief or even the political struggle. 

The key point is that the President is obviously feeling a lot of pressure from economic advisors and business interests to get the economy up and running again.  However, at the same time, the NY Fed announced Monday that it is starting to scale back its recent emergency interventions (repo operations) “in light of the more stable markets.”  So, it seems the Fed is less jittery about market conditions than the White House (and others) seem to be about the economic situation. Since markets are said to be a discounting machine that front-runs the economy by 3-6 months, maybe this is an indication we are only looking to turn the corner by next year.

However, on the topic of economic pain, Ginnie Mae (FHA and VA loans) reported that its mortgage bailout requests had risen 78% in the last week and are currently at just under 6% of the loans they are servicing.  So far, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac forbearance requests are still at a much lower 2% level.  So, even at this early point in the economic fallout, mortgage repayments are already showing stress.

On the longer-term outlook, a non-partisan watchdog (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) released estimates that the US federal deficit for the year will top $3.8 trillion for 2020…even if Congress does not approve any more stimulus/relief (which they almost certainly will).  That represents almost 19% of the economy and is the highest deficit as a percentage of GDP since 1945.  The same group estimates this will lead to total public debt equaling total GDP by the end of October (roughly $20+ Trillion).  They also warned their numbers may well be on the low side due to using conservative estimates.

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,936,700 confirmed cases and 120,568 deaths.  In Asia, the number of cases is picking up again, with relatively large increases in places like Singapore.  However, new Chinese cases fell back below 100 again.  In Europe, the UK said it is likely to extend its lockdown as far as late May.  Meanwhile, in Germany, the country’s Health Minister said they have begun plans to implement a gradual recovery in a step-by-step fashion.  As in the US, no timelines have been announced yet and they will be seeking a balance between preventing new outbreaks and economic recovery.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 587,173 confirmed cases and 23,644 deaths.  The pace of increase in new cases continues to slow in the worst-hit areas like NY, NJ, and MA, which reported a lower number of new cases.  The rate of new deaths is also starting to decline but that statistic continues to lag the reduction in new case rates.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, as China’s March Trade Data came in down, but much better than expected.  (Down 6.6% vs. a 14% drop expected.) In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly green at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing toward a 1.5% gap higher on early mixed earnings news (JPM earnings way down, but explained it as stockpiling reserves for the virus impact, JNJ cuts outlook but beat on revenue and raises dividend, etc.).

On Tuesday, major economic news is limited to Mar. Imports/Exports (8:30 am).  On the earnings front, DAL, FAST, FRC, JNJ, JPM, and WFC all report before the open.  JBHT will report after the close.

While the uptrend continues, we are now entering a very uncertain earnings season.  Do not be surprised if reports come in spotty (good in some cases, bad in others) as supply and demand pressures hit different industries at different times and some companies spin the story one way while others spin it another. Remember, while it may be time to start dipping your toe in again, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious about any swing trades you take.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AMD, ATVI, INTC, NVDA, ANSS, BABA, JD, AMGN, BMY. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday (virtual Friday) was an interesting day.  Substantial hopes for oil production cuts led to massive strength in the energy names premarket.  Then we got a much worse unemployment number than expected, followed minutes later by the Fed announcing details of a new $2.3 Trillion asset purchase program.  As a result, we gapped higher about 1%, except the oil heavy small-caps which gapped up 3.5%.  However, a volatile day and no completion of the OPEC+ deal left us with “gap-up dojis” across the 3 major indices.  The SPY closed up 1.52%, the DIA up 1.20%, and the QQQ flat at +0.14%.  The VXX was down slightly to 41.57 and the 10-yr. bond yield closed down to 0.729%  Oil was the real roller-coaster as it was up 12% at one point, but the lack of an announced production cut during the session caused a massive all-day selloff that left Oil (WTI) down 7.5% to $23.19/barrel.

Over the weekend, OPEC+ did agree on the expected 9.7mil barrel/day production cut for May and June (about 10% of global production), as well as 8mil barrels per day from July through December and then 6mil barrels per day all of 2021.  As usual, the vast majority of the cuts will come from Saudi Arabia (8.5 billion barrel/day). However, for the first time ever, the US will participate in the cuts, although the mechanism and duration of US cuts are not clear and there are conflicting reports.  The sticking block for a deal was Mexico until Sunday.

Apparently the President agreed that the US will cut approximately 300,000 barrels/day of US production to offset Mexico’s refusal to cut more than 100,000 barrels.  (OPEC had demanded that Mexico cut 400,000 barrels/day.)  Bloomberg reported that the reason the US is participating in the OPEC+ cuts is that Mexico holds a huge block of put options (price insurance) with Wall Street investment banks and US oil companies.  This insurance policy means that low oil prices don’t hurt Mexico but instead pass the pain on to US interests.  Bloomberg estimated (based on prior year data) that Mexico is still receiving about $45/barrel (with the difference between $45 and the market price paid by the US put sellers).  As a result of this hedge, Mexico had no reason to agree to major production cuts.  It also had allies in the US who had pressed the President to do whatever it takes to secure OPEC+ cuts (and they hope, push oil prices back up above $45).

On Sunday, Dr. Fauci (NIH) said he was cautiously optimistic that the virus outbreak in the US is slowing enough that measures could start to be eased IN SOME WAYS AND IN SOME AREAS during May.  However, he said that other areas will take longer and some measures (social distancing) will not end. And, regardless of when easing starts, we need to expect new outbreaks to occur.  In short, life will not return to normal for a long time to come. The important thing is that we have enough testing, immediate isolation and contact-tracing capacity in place in the specific areas eased before the time of easing in order to track down new cases and contain the new outbreaks.

On the virus front itself, the global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,864,555 confirmed cases and 115,099 deaths.  In the UK, PM Johnson was released from the hospital to continue recovery at home.  Both Spain and Italy saw a leveling off of new cases, but their death numbers fluctuate as the toll rose again in Spain after 3 days of decline. Nonetheless, Spain began easing some of its lock-down measures on Monday. On the downside, Russia saw a record number of new cases. And in Asia, Indonesia and Singapore also saw new record numbers of cases, while the number of new cases in China has once again climbed above 100/day again.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 560,433 confirmed cases and 22,115 deaths.  Over the weekend AAPL and GOOG teamed up to announce a contact tracing platform based on cell phone GPS positioning and Bluetooth connections made.  This is very similar to the mandatory tracking and “social passport” phone app the Chinese have deployed.  Advocates for civil liberties and limitations on governmental power have already voiced concern over the potential for abuse of this new platform in the longer-term.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly red with Hong Kong and Australia being the green outliers.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but are mostly green with the majors (DAX, FTSE, CAC) well on the positive side at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat, sitting on either side of break-even from Thursday’s close.

There is no major economic news for Monday, although markets may react to Friday’s March Core CPI, which came in slightly lower than estimates or Sunday’s Oil Production Cut announcement.  There are also no major earnings Monday.

Other noteworthy virus-reaction news includes AMZN having stopped accepting new Grocery customers. In addition, JPM has raised its mortgage lending standards to reduce the risk of loan defaults. The new standards include a 700+ credit score and a 20% cash down payment on the purchase. DIS also announced it will furlough 43,000 union workers from its Disney World theme park.

On Sunday, Fed voter Neel Kashkari said he expected a “long and hard road to recovery” with rolling phases of flare-up and that expectations of a V-shaped economic recovery are too optimistic.  So, the uptrend continues, but fears remain palpable.  The good news is that the market tends to lead the economy by 3-6 months.  Remember, while it may be time to start dipping your toe in again, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  Be very cautious about any swing trades you take.

Ed

There are no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped 1% higher at the open and then bulls followed-through to print bullish harami candles across all the major indices.  Markets seemed to surge after Dr. Fauci held a positive outlook press conference.  However, others said it was after Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Presidential race.  Regardless, the SPY closed up 3.45%, the DIA up 3.41%, and the QQQ up 2.12%.  The VXX fell to 42.40, while the 10-year bond yield up to 0.771% and Oil (WTI) closed up over 10% to $26.14/barrel (somebody thinks they know something about OPEC+).

The relief/stimulus bidding war also heated up again. On Tuesday Senate Republicans had said they would vote Thursday on an additional $250 billion for small business.  On Wednesday Democrats announced they will seek an additional $500 billion to include the $250 billion for small businesses and would add $150 billion for hospitals and $100 billion for states.  Then the figure $350 billion additional was floated by Republican sources to add in bailout money for the cruise industry. However, the $2 Trillion infrastructure bill both the President and Congressional Democrats supported a week or so ago looks to have been shelved again for now as Senate Republicans remain concerned about costs.

Related to the previously passed stimulus bill, banks are experiencing huge logistical issues that are leading to delays.  For example, just 2 banks (JPM and BAC) received 625,000 small business loan applications in the first week.  At the same time, small community banks that normally process 5-6 SBA loans in a year, have received 500 to process in the last week.  These are just front-end issues and don’t reflect the problem experienced on the government (SBA) end to review and approve (or denial) of perhaps millions of new loan applications.  Obviously, delays apply more stress to the economy.

CNBC reported that the consensus expectation for new unemployment claims is at 5.25 million again this week.  After the close, California reported that 2.4 million of their citizens had filed unemployment since March 12.  However, we knew unemployment was bad.  The FOMC minutes indicated that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero until the economy has weathered the pandemic.  Specifically, they tied the decision to their maximum employment mandate.

On the virus front itself, the world crossed above 1.5 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19.  The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,529,439 confirmed cases and 89,416 deaths (5.8%).  The number of new cases in both Russia and Germany jumped in the last 24 hours. In addition, both Spain and Italy experienced an increase in deaths again Tuesday (after they had fallen for a few days).  However, overnight Spain reports its death toll fell again slightly. While that goes on, the EU failed to reach an agreement on its own 500 billion Euro economic stimulus plan after a 16-hour conference call.  Meanwhile, the UN has announced that it estimates 195 million jobs will be lost globally in Q2 due to the virus.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 435,160 confirmed cases and 14,797 (3.4%) deaths.  As mentioned above, Dr. Fauci told a press conference that he is now expecting the rate of new cases to plateau starting next week.  However, he reiterated this doesn’t mean it’s time to ease restrictions.  In addition, the consensus model now forecasts US deaths will be about 61,000 (20,000 less than the model showed a week ago).  Part of the reason for this is adherence to the guidelines as shown by drops in travel. For example, the TSA announced that it screened a record low number of passengers Tuesday (97,000).  While still a huge number of people and flights, that is down 95% from a year ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green.  In Europe, markets are also mixed, but more evenly distributed red-green at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing toward a one percent gap lower at the open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Initial Jobless Claims and Mar. Core PPI (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  However, OPEC+ will also meet (10 am) to discuss potential production cuts. Major earnings on the day are limited to DAL and FRC before the open.  For Friday, markets are closed, but major economic news will include Mar. Core CPI (8:30 am) and Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  There are no major earnings Friday.

The uptrend continues, but the lack of conviction is palpable.  The OPEC meeting today may result in production cuts that could boost the energy sector.  However, unemployment claims and the fact this is “virtual Friday” are unknowns that may be a drag on the day.  So, we need to continue to be very attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  It’s still not a good swing trading market yet with all the gaps and volatility.  And a 3-day weekend is a long time to be holding a position you cannot adjust.  Be very cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

There are no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist on “Virtual Friday” of a 3-day weekend. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

“Gap and crap” may be crude, but it is a very accurate description of the market on Tuesday.  After a 3.5% gap higher at the open and a little roller-coaster ride, markets slid all afternoon to close flat on the day.  The SPY gained 0.12%, the DIA gained 0.07%, and the QQQ lost 0.04% for the day.  Oil fell during the session as hope for an announcement of major production cuts on Thursday faded some from Monday.  The closing price (WTI) was $24.10/barrel while 10-year bond yields rose to 0.734%.

Related to the economic stimulus, during the day Tuesday President Trump fired the acting Pentagon IG (Bush appointee) who was to oversee the $2 Trillion package. This is part of his much broader plan to replace IGs across all agencies, as he seeks more personal loyalty to himself.  Add this termination to his written statement that he would not allow the fund watchdog to make a report to Congress about any bailout decisions (as required by law) without his express permission. What you get is a valid concern about the fairness and transparency of stimulus operations.  Since both Republicans and Democrats have already voiced opposition to the move, it is likely to cause political rancor soon.

In business news, a Fed survey was reported.  The survey stated only 20% of small businesses had the money to withstand two months without revenue.  This led to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin to seek and Majority Leader McConnell to announce that the Senate will vote Thursday on a new bill offering an additional $250 billion in small business bailout loans/grants.  It is unclear how this will work since only the House has the right to approve spending and the House is not scheduled to resume session until April 20th.  Larry Kudlow (White House) also told Fox News that early planning for reopening the economy was underway and that reopening might begin in 4-8 weeks. 

At the daily presser, the President again looked for a scapegoat to blame.  This time he claimed the WHO caused months of delay in US response and (probably more importantly), criticized him as his attempt to rewrite history continues.  He said “we’re going to look into them (WHO) and put a powerful hold on their funding because we fund them, provide the majority of their funding and they’re very China-centric.”  When pushed on the funding pull, he back-tracked to say he will consider it.  This came as he also claimed that his own downplaying of and calling the virus a hoax for 6 weeks was because he was just acting as a cheerleader for the country.  However, the idea that the WHO knew about the virus for months, downplayed, and/or hid it, is ridiculous and does not match the facts.

On the virus front itself, the world is nearing 1.5 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19.  The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,446,557confirmed cases and 83,149 deaths.  On the positive side, China has lifted the quarantine (some restrictions remain) for Wuhan after 76 days.  Assuming no additional outbreaks there, this could be seen as a hopeful sign.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 400,549 confirmed cases and 12,911 deaths.  In mixed news, New York recorded its worst day for deaths, but the rate of new cases is plateauing in the state.  At the daily event, Dr. Birx (White House) said we have a million-test backlog (more kits are available now, but labs don’t have the capacity to process them all as received).  However, she hoped that bringing existing ABT test-processing machines online can add 100,000/day capacity soon.  Current test result time varies from place to place and by case priority but ranges from 2 to 5 days for the vast majority of tests at the moment (few instant tests are in place just yet).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red with the exceptions of Japan and India, which were both strongly green.  In Europe, markets are red across the board at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are all on the green side this morning, but looking at less than a half percent gap higher.

The only major economic news for Wednesday are Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and FOMC Minutes (2 pm).  Once again, there are no major earnings on the day.

The truth is that the economy (US and global) will recover.  It’s really just a question of when.  We should expect news cycles to continue to be bad and we’ll probably see fits and starts in the recovery.  Still, in the long run, we’ll be fine and a fast economic restart is not a nicety, not a primary concern.  It will work itself out once the virus is totally under control.  So, for long-term investors, it’s definitely time to go bargain shopping with the money we can afford to forget about for quite some time. 

However, as traders, it’s a different story.  We have a short-term bullish trend, but after Tuesday’s candle we very well could see markets go back down to test the uptrend. It is still likely going to be a long time until we see markets relentlessly rip higher the way we did back before mid-February.  So, as we’ve said, even with a lot of bad news already “baked into” markets, we need to continue to be attentive, and either be very fast (day trade) or very slow (long-term holds).  It’s still not a good swing trading market yet with all the gaps and volatility.  Be cautious on any swing trades you take.

Ed

There are no Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist today. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The bulls ran wild Monday with a 4% gap up and follow-through to the upside.  This was impressive, even in the face of oil down hard on the postponement of an OPEC+ summit to discuss oil production cuts.  The market move breaks us out of a J-hook pattern, giving us now a low, high, high-low and higher-high.  So, we have a bullish trend now.  On the day, the SPY closed up 6.76%, the DIA up 7.45%, and the QQQ up 7.20%.  The VXX closed down as you’d expect now at 42.21 and as mentioned Oil (WTI) was back down to $26.37/barrel.  The 10-year bond yield rose to 0.673% on the day.

It seemed clear that markets are looking to the future, discussing recovery strategies and easing timetables, even though new cases and deaths continue to mount.  The same is true in Oil markets as the buzz Monday was not the postponement of a summit and name-calling, but the “fact” that the Saudis and Russians are “near” an agreement on production cuts to drive up oil prices.

In virus-economic news, BA closed its last remaining (South Carolina) commercial jet production facility on Monday.  AMZN also announced it is tracking warehouse workers and may fire them if they violate company social distancing rules.  Meanwhile, Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke out during the day. In a CNBC interview, she said that a V-shaped recovery is still possible, but she is worried that will not be the case.  Specific issues related to high levels of debt (both consumer and small business), and rolling increases of acidity are more likely to cause the recovery to have “fits and stalls” rather than get back to pre-shutdown efficiency like flipping a switch back to the “on” position.

The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,359,398 confirmed cases and 75,945 deaths.  In Russia, the reported daily new case number rose 1,000 for the first time.  In Spain, the daily death toll rose 17% above the number of the previous day.  In the UK, PM Johnson was moved to intensive care after his Sunday hospital admission.  One of his cabinet members has also entered self-isolation. 

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 368,449 confirmed infections and just under 11,000 deaths.  In good news, there are signs that the infection growth rate is starting to flatten.  In fact, the mean model is now calling for “only” 81,000 deaths (versus 100,000-200,000 prior estimates).  However, for now, US death rates are still exponential, but there are some signs of peaking in early states (New York in particular).

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green across most the board (the exception being a red Australia).  In Europe, markets are also strongly green across the board at this point in their day.  As of 7:45 am, US futures are pointing to another 2-3% gap higher at the open.

The only major economic news for Tuesday is Feb. JOLTS (10 am).  Again, there are no major earnings on the day.

Markets seem to have really latched on to optimism. We finally have a bullish trend in place on the daily chart. So, while we can expect much more bad virus and economic news, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets.  So, it may well be time to be getting back involved in the market. Still, we have to assume there will continue to be a lot of gaps and volatility.  Remember, not to chase, not to predict turns, and to plan and manage your trades.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration: CGC, XRAY, HALO, CLDR, FSLR, TMUS, NWL, CROX, NTAP. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

March Payroll numbers far below even much-lowered expectations (and having been measured several weeks ago, in mid-March) offset an incredible oil rally Friday to leave indecisive Bearish Harami Spinning Top candles across all 3 major indices. On the day, the SPY closed down 1.54%, the DIA down 1.57%, and the QQQ down 1.42%.  As mentioned, oil (WTI) rallied 14% to close at $28.80/barrel.  The 10-year bond yield also closed down to 0.611%. Interestingly, even going into the weekend the VXX was down again to 45.44.

The President’s Friday meeting with US Oil company execs failed to make progress. The companies oppose production cuts and the President took no action on the matter (options discussed previously). US supply cuts were a prerequisite for Russian/Saudi agreement to the deal the President implied he had brokered (a 10-15mil barrels/day cut in Russian/Saudi oil production).  So, Friday’s failure led to more name-calling over the weekend.  As a result, the planned Monday OPEC+ conference has now been postponed until “maybe Thursday.”  After two days of MASSIVE price gains the end of last week (32% overall), oil is likely to fall hard again Monday on the loss of recently renewed hope.  This story will continue to develop as Russia and the Saudis are trying to enlist G20 members to pressure the US to cut oil production as well. 

Over the weekend, the President also started backing away from his April 30 date for the easing of anti-virus measures.  He again floated Easter for some easing as he once more started repeating the business mantra “the cure cannot be worse than the disease.”  However, the President also said this week and next will be bad, with a lot of deaths, just one day before he said we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel.  There was also a heated argument Sunday in the President’s Task Force with a non-member, non-expert (Navarro) demanding that restrictions be eased and the malaria drug be touted despite no data proving its effectiveness. Dr. Fauci apparently did not back down. So, to say the messaging coming from the White house is mixed is an understatement.

The world has now surpassed 1.25 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19.  The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,285,261 confirmed cases and 70,356 deaths.  In the UK, PM Johnson was admitted to hospital “for tests” after his diagnosis with COVID-19 last week.  In Asia, Singapore quarantined 20,000 foreign workers in two dormitories amid a new uptick in cases. Japan announced a massive economic stimulus worth 20% of their normal GDP, while at the same time PM Abe prepares to declare a state of emergency for larger cities. However, the growth rate in Spain and Italy continues to flatten.

Meanwhile, in the US we now have 337,933 confirmed infections and 9,648 deaths.  Perhaps just an oddity, but at least one Tiger in a NYC Zoo has tested positive as of Sunday, with other large cats showing symptoms.  This raises the specter of either the virus evolving or human-animal transmission also being a risk. However, the news is not all bad as the growth rate in new cases has slowed in New York.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  In Europe, markets are also strongly green across the board at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a large gap higher at the open (about 4%).

There are no major economic news or earnings reports for Monday. 

Markets seem to want to latch on to optimism. A slow in the new case and death rates in Europe and the first signs of the same in some parts of the US may let bulls run again. However, expect economic news cycles to continue to be terrible for a long time to come.  The impact on quarterly numbers is also likely to drag on for two more reporting cycles.  As we’ve said, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets.  Either way, we have to assume there will continue to be a lot of gaps and volatility.  We need to continue to either be very fast (day trade), very slow (long-term holds) or just wait.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your watchlist and consideration: MO, MXIM, MDLZ, BMY, INTC, MSFT, LLY, CAT, CSCO, XOM. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Oil prices surged Wednesday night (on word that China was filling its strategic oil reserve, meaning higher demand), which had futures up almost 2.5% in early morning hours.  This was then offset by a worse than even worst-case scenario estimate of the unemployment claims number, which came in at 6.65mil. claims.  So, markets opened down slightly Thursday.  However, after a roller-coaster morning, President Trump claimed (unsubstantiated) that he had brokered a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia. In that supposed deal, the two had agreed to cut production by 10-15mil barrels/day) helped the bulls run late.  As a result, markets closed higher with the SPY up 2.35%, the DIA up 2.22%, and the QQQ up 2.03%.  All three major indices printed bullish engulfing signals on the day.  The VXX fell to 47.36, while Oil (WTI) shot up to $25.01/barrel and the 10-year bond yield fell to 0.624%.

It is worth noting that a Kremlin Spokesman denied that Russia had agreed to any oil production cuts.  Saudi Arabia also told Bloomberg it had not agreed to production cuts unless done in conjunction with cuts by every major oil producer, including the US.  In addition, while President Trump plans to meet with US Oil Producer and Refining Execs today, there are ongoing internal White House arguments over ideas like restricting US Oil exports, implementing tariffs on foreign oil, asking US producers to cut output, letting US producers store their oil in the US Strategic Reserve locations and plain old bailouts for US oil companies.

Related to unemployment, it was reported Thursday that the New York, California, Illinois, Ohio, and Texas state unemployment funds are on the verge of insolvency due to the surge in new claims.  There has not been time for a federal response to this problem. The White House also adjusted the relief check timelines as Treasury Sec. Mnuchin said the first direct deposit payments to individuals will start in 2 weeks (about 60 million people).  However, according to an IRS analysis sent to Congress Thursday, any person needing a paper check (about 100 million), will have to wait. The IRS will begin to cut checks during the week of May 4 and the report said it could take up to 20 weeks to get all the paper checks cut and mailed.  Mnuchin disputed this timeline, but that is what was reported to Congress. Obviously these issues could impact the economy as the stimulus will be quick for some, still far out for many and possibly delayed for an unknown amount if state funds did become insolvent.

Sec. Mnuchin also said the small business lending program (which turns into grants if enough employees are retained) will be up and running Today.  However, JPM said publicly Thursday afternoon (and other lenders confirmed to CNBC off the record) that they will not be ready to accept applications Friday as they had not gotten guidance on what the process will be from the Treasury Dept.  Regardless, that would only be a delay of a few days, worst case.

During the day Thursday, the world surpassed 1 million diagnosed cases of COVID-19, having doubled the number in one week.  The global headline virus numbers have now reached 1,030,1937 confirmed cases and 54,198 deaths.  In Asia, a second wave is taking shape.  Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia also reported new outbreaks.  A smaller increase in Singapore caused the response to shut schools and businesses.  Meanwhile, South Korea also had a small uptick in cases. 

In the US, we now have 245, 280 confirmed infections and 6.095 deaths.  (Twice as many cases as any other country, but China’s data is very suspect and India isn’t even testing broadly.) In terms of impact, new states are implementing stay-at-home orders (TN) and others are extending the existing orders for another month (OH).  Still, 10 states still have none in place.  It’s clear many remain ignorant or are not taking the virus seriously.  For example, Georgia’s Governor claimed he only learned Thursday that the virus could be spread by asymptomatic carriers. In addition, in a stunning lack of wisdom, many bible belt states are refusing to issue stay-at-home orders or have exempted church gatherings, including “mega-churches.”

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red.  In Europe, markets are also red across the board at this point in their day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap lower at the open, but the March Employment numbers could take that either way at 8:30 am.

Friday’s major economic news includes Mar. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Mar. Non-farm Payrolls, and Mar. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Mar. Services PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am).  The only major earnings on the day will be STZ before the open.

We should expect news cycles about the US and most of the world to continue to be terrible for at least another 30 days.  The impact on quarterly numbers is also likely to drag on for two more reporting cycles.  However, as we’ve said, a lot of bad news is already “baked in” to markets.  Either way, there isn’t a lot of reason to take on new risk ahead of a long weekend news cycle.  We need to continue to either be very fast (day trade), very slow (long-term holds) or just wait.

Ed

No Trade Ideas for Friday. Trade smart, take profits along the way and trade your plan. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/etfs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service