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Bulls Still Pushing Amidst Fed Watch

August 26, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Tuesday on hope of more help from the Fed (spurred by leaks about the content of FOMC Chair Powell’s Thursday speech). However, the DIA sold off both strongly and immediately on its overnight reshuffle that saw XOM, PFE, and RTX replaced in the Dow 30. The other major indices faired better grinding sideways until the bulls stepped in late in mid-day to rally all the way into the close. On the day, DIA lost 0.20%, SPY gained 0.36% (closing at a new all-time high), and QQQ gained 0.79% (also closing at an another all-time high). The VXX lost a touch to 24.39 and T2122 remains just outside of overbought territory at 77.69. 10-year bond yields were up strongly to 0.687% while Oil (WTI) also gained to $43.35/barrel.

Kansas City Fed President George told CNBC she has concerns about a double-dip recession if there is a virus resurgence. She also expressed skepticism of Fed Chair Powell’s expected Thursday policy change announcement that will allow inflation to “run hot” (overshoot the 2% target without action to reduce it).

While Marco fizzled Monday, hurricane Laura is expected to intensify to a Category 4 storm. The major storm is expected to make landfall in Texas or Louisiana either tonight or on Thursday morning. Many businesses, including a high number of Chemical Plants and Oil Refineries in that area, have been shut down for days and will remain closed until at least next week.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,956,160 confirmed cases and 182,421 deaths. The good news is that new cases continue to trend down, coming in at just over 40,000 for Tuesday. However, deaths saw a spike back up close to 1,300 on the day. In a dramatic (and questionable) change, the CDC posted revised guidelines saying that people exposed to infected people DO NOT need to be tested unless they are showing symptoms. Moreover, they are discouraging testing by saying “if you do get tested, you should self-quarantine at least until you have results.” So as testing is being decreased and is now being discouraged, and reporting has been changed, we should see dramatically lower numbers.

Globally, the numbers rose to 24,091,252 confirmed cases and 824,177 deaths. In Europe, Germany said a good portion (42%) of their recent increase in cases are due to international travelers now that they have reopened borders. Among the origin countries identified were Turkey, Kosovo, Croatia, Bosnia, and Bulgaria. In the UK, the government made a U-turn to say that many secondary school kids will be required to wear masks in an attempt to get public education (freeing the parents to work) back in place.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but modestly lower. Shanghai and Shenzhen both lost over 1.3% in the only moves greater than one percent. The remaining markets all stuck much closer to flat on the day. However, European markets are more hopeful as of their mid-day. There are no major moves, but everything except the FTSE and Sweden are leaning toward the green side. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a mixed and modest open, with the DIA just on the red side of flat, SPY just on the green side of it, and the QQQ looking to a half-percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). Major earnings reports include DKS, DY, and RY before the open. Then after the close GEF and WSM report.

The rally has continued and new DIA member CRM had blow-out earnings after the close Tuesday. So that should help that market, shaken a bit by Monday’s revised lineup. It seems the bulls are restless waiting on political conventions to end, DC to return to work to give the economy more stimulus, and now the Fed to announce they will let inflation run until after they secure full employment.

The trend still remains bullish. So, be careful trying to get on the short side. (Markets can stay “wrong” longer than we can stay solvent.) Follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Don’t try to predict reversals or breakouts. Above all, remember, trading is a job. We must obey our rules, stick to the process, and work to be consistently profitable.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NOW, SQ, COST, FB, MXIM, SNPS, WYNN, UNM, STZ. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DJIA Shakeup and New Fed Direction

August 25, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher on follow-through to last week’s rally. While there was some roller-coaster, markets essentially stayed where they gapped, closing near the highs. Once again, the SPY and QQQ both closed at new all-time highs. That said, the SPY and DIA could be seen as “gap up Hanging Man” candles, but we know that without follow-through candle signals mean nothing. Price gets the only vote that counts. On the day, SPY was up 1.01%, DIA up 1.39%, and QQQ up 0.62%. The VXX fell slightly to 24.52 and T2122 rose back near the overbought territory at 78.68. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.656%, while Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.42/barrel.

After the close, CNBC reported that Fed Chair Powell’s Thursday video speech (virtual Jackson Hole Symposium) is expected to be historic. They say Powell will reverse the long-standing Fed inflation policy that goes back to former Chair Volcker’s policies to fight high inflation in the early 1980s. This speech is expected to outline a new policy designed to encourage inflation to “overshoot” (above the target rate of 2%) instead of trying to halt it at 2 percent. The idea appears to be they will look to hit the target level “on average.” This is all designed to emphasize full employment as the guide versus trying to meet dual mandates (employment and inflation) and is seen as an effort to jump start recovery. This will have the effect of forcing risk-seeking, which should point to a continued stock market rally.

In a major shakeup, 3 new companies were added to the Dow Jones “Industrial” Average last night. The new companies AMGN, CRM, and HON. Those 3 will replace PFE, XOM, and RTX. The XOM and PFE removals were a major unexpected move.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,915,911 confirmed cases and 181,117 deaths. The good news is that new cases continued their recent trend down from the July highs. However, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly above 43,300 new cases and 980 deaths per day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 23,836,657 confirmed cases and 817,606 deaths. Hong Kong reported a first case of reinfection (with 4 months between them). It appears the 33-year-old man was infected with two different strains of the virus. In Europe, France announced an increase in Covid-19 cases as Germany put both Paris and the French Riviera region on a travel warning. Meanwhile Spain tightened its restrictions again as cases rise. (All these European rises should be kept in context. Even combined, the number of new cases in Europe is dwarfed by those in the US.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned heavily to the upside. Japan and South Korea led gainers. In Europe this morning again only Athens shows red. However, the bulls have not made a huge move either yet as the bourses all about +0.50% as of mid-day. In the US, at 6:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly higher open, with only the DIA looking at a +0.50% gap on the shakeup.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales (both at 10 am) and a Fed Speaker (Daly at 3:25 pm). However, Tropical Storm Marco will be onshore with Hurricane Laura following soon. Major earnings reports on the day include BBY, BMO, BNS, HRL, MDT, and SJM before the open. Then after the close, ADSK, CRM, HPE, INTU, JWN, TOL, and URBN report.

Sorry folks but I am under the weather. This will have to suffice until tomorrow.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: . Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Looking to Start Week Strong

August 24, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday was a lackluster day, but bullish after the PMI Indices showed strong economic activity so far this month. On the day, all 3 major indices were up a fraction. The SPY closed 0.35% higher, the DIA up 0.51%, and the QQQ up 0.69% (mostly on the back of AAPL’s pre-split gains. This gave both the SPY and QQQ new all-time high closes. The VXX was flat at 24.62 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio was also flat at 37.41. 10-year bond yields were down just a touch to 0.635% and Oil (WTI) also fell to $42.26/barrel. On a weekly chart, both the SPY and QQQ certainly look extended. However, that certainly has not deterred the bulls yet.

In weekend Tech news, in an “interested third-party” statement, MSFT has warned a US District Court that AAPL blocking of Epic Games from the App Store is detrimental to gaming industry (including MSFT) and to market competition. In other tech news, CNBC reported that FB CEO Zuckerberg had warned President Trump and lawmakers at an October dinner of a grave threat to the prospects of US tech companies that was posed by Chinese tech firms like TikTok. Shortly afterward, a national security review was launched and the President started his Executive Order campaign.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,874,295 confirmed cases and 180,605 deaths. The good news is that new cases continued their recent trend down from the July highs. However, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly above 43,300 new cases and 989 deaths per day. On Saturday the CDC announced that during the first 7 months of 2020, the US had 215,000 “more deaths than usual.” This suggests the number of virus deaths could be significantly higher than the 170,000 that was reported at the end of July. In treatment news, Sunday the FDA expanded the use of “convalescent plasma” as a treatment by giving expanded emergency use authorization.

Globally, the numbers rose to 23,612,908 confirmed cases and 812,991 deaths. In Asia, South Korea suspended in-person classes at the 1,900 schools across their nation as just under 300 students and 80 faculty members have tested positive since the country began a phased return to class. The country’s President Moon warned of a total lockdown if the new level of alert does not stop the new spread. However, in the quarantined Australian Victoria state, progress was reported with the fewest new cases in 7 weeks reported in the last 24 hours.

Overnight, Asian markets were overwhelmingly, but not totally green as Malaysia lost half a percent. However, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Thailand all turned in over 1% to the upside. The rest showed lesser gains. Of note were massive gains in IPOs on the China’s NASDAQ-like ChiNext board. This follows a reform that allows IPOs to trade freely during the first 5 days of post-IPO trading. The same general situation is true in Europe this morning as only Athens shows red. However, the bulls are even stronger in Europe as the big 3 indices are all up about 2% as of mid-day. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a gap higher of between 0.82% (SPY) and 0.98% (DIA), with the QQQ in between.

There is no major economic news for Monday. There are also no major earnings on the day. However, the first of 2 hurricanes are expected to make landfall in the US, in MS or LA on Monday. (The other on Wednesday at an unknown gulf-coast location.)

On Friday the bulls had a nice day within the recent consolidation range in the large-caps. The tech-heavy Nasdaq continued their rally. There simply have been no bears to be seen for some time. That said, it still feels like markets have been drifting while they wait on political conventions and Congressional vacations to end. The trend still remains bullish, but the election-year summer doldrums have clearly been in effect. That may be ending this morning with the bulls looking to make another run toward the blue sky.

Continue to follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Don’t try to predict reversals or breakouts. Above all, remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich quick.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: NKE, AMD, COST, YUM, JCI, QCOM, GLW, MAS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Market Doldrums Ahead of Weekend

August 21, 2020 by Ed Carter

Higher than expected Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims caused a gap down at the open. However, the bulls stepped in immediately and rallied markets all day (give or take s sideways mid-day grind). The result was a Bullish Piercing Candle in the SPY and a Bull Engulfing signal in the QQQ. QQQ also printed another all-time high and all-time high-close. On the day, QQQ gained 1.39%, SPY gained 0.31%, and DIA was up just 0.16%. The VXX fell again to 24.50 and T2122 also fell to 37.40 (getting closer to the oversold territory). 10-year bond yields fell again to 0.651% and Oil (WTI) also fell a bit to $42.62/barrel.

During the day, a CA Appeals Court granted UBER and LYFT an extension on the date when they have to comply with a state order to treat drivers as employees. However, this reprieve lasts only until 5pm on August 25 unless the two companies submit written appeals to lower court ruling and the state regulation. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also finished his 2-days of testimony before the FTC as part of the agency’s antitrust investigation of FB. The FB testimony was the last of the major techs that are targets of the investigation as the CEOs of AMZN, AAPL, and GOOG all preceded Zuckerberg. (No word on when the investigation will be completed or any findings announced.)

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,746,534 confirmed cases and 177,438 deaths. While the new cases are down (still over 45,000) from the highs, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly at 47,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths per day. Other than the numbers, there was little news on this front domestically as US public attention has been diverted to other things like the end of summer, CA troubles, and politics. However, more colleges did announce outbreaks, the move to virtual classes, and/or at least pauses in sports. Among those Thursday were a number of small colleges along with East Carolina and Notre Dame (Football team outbreak).

Globally, the numbers rose to 22,891,444 confirmed cases and 797,665 deaths. In Brazil, despite a veto from their President, the Brazilian Congress wisely overrode the veto to order mandatory mask wearing. In Asia, South Korea they saw an 8^th straight day of triple-digit new cases while Japan is also battling a new wave of cases. Japan has had more than a third of their total cases this month alone. However, in China, new cases are so under control that they have rolled back mask requirements in Beijing.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. Shenzhen, Taiwan, South Korea, and New Zealand were the leaders with over 1% up moves. However, markets in Europe are much more mixed and flatter so far Friday. The biggest movers so far are Russia (+0.64%) and Belgium (+0.49%). The 3 major bourses are all just on the red side of flat at mid-day. In the US, as of 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a very modest lower open this morning. None of the 3 major indices are pointing to even a gap down of two-tenths of a percent.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to August Mfg. PMI and August Service PMI (both at 9:45 am) and July existing Home sales (10 am). Major earnings are limited to DE, FL, and PDD before the open. There are no major earnings after the close.

On Thursday the bulls rallied back nicely from Wednesday’s black candles. There were no bears to be seen. However, it still feels like a drifting market which is waiting for political conventions and Congressional vacations to end or some other shoe to drop. The trend remains bullish but the summer doldrums are clearly in effect.

If we are trading today, all we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t forget to book some profits, because Friday is payday after all. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich quick.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PZZA, AMD, YUM, RCL, CAR, CVLT, LYV, FCX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Troubles in CA and TikTok Lead News

August 20, 2020 by Ed Carter

Wednesday saw a sideways grind all morning. After reaching all-time highs again early in the day, the release of FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2pm gave us a steep selloff into the close. The Fed discussion told traders that the FOMC expects the virus to be a major overhang on the economy and “represents a considerable risk over the medium term” (18-24 months). On the day, SPY closed down 0.45%, DIA down 0.29%, and QQQ down 0.67%. The VXX rose slightly to 24.75 and T2122 fell to 40.52. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.685% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $42.82/barrel.

The state of CA continues to see several major plagues. Rolling power outages, more than 370 wildfires statewide, 110-degree temperatures, and a little virus pandemic to boot. On top of these, there are economic issues such as both UBER and LYFT shut down their CA operations. The ride-sharing duo of companies are threatening to shut down CA service permanently in the wake of the state declaring that their drivers are not independent contractors and must be treated as employees.

After the close Wednesday, Larry Kudlow (White House) told reporters “the President wants to prevent China from collecting some form of proceeds” from the forced sale of Byte Dance’s TikTok App North-American operations that the President has ordered. There was no word on how this would be done (since any sale would be a private transaction), although Kudlow said the fact it had never been done before does not mean it can’t be done now. This follows the President’s previous assertion that the US Government should get a significant cut of any deal since he was the one making any purchase possible through his orders. Perhaps a scary precedent for free markets when the government decides who can own what, forces sales, decides who gets paid and demands a cut of the deal. At the moment MSFT, ORCL, and TWTR are all in talks with Byte Dance over a purchase.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,701,390 confirmed cases and 176,365 deaths. While the new cases are down (over 46,000) from the highs, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly at 48,000 new cases and 1,030 deaths per day. So, there are hopeful trends in the US. However, Adm. Giroir (Admin. Testing Tzar) said that this hopeful situation “could turn around very quickly if we are not careful. We saw that after Memorial Day”. (He was referring to all the progress made through the May partial lockdown being lost in just a couple weeks when the states and public ignored reopening, mask and social distancing guidelines.)

Globally, the numbers rose to 22,607,156 confirmed cases and 791,622 deaths. Over in Europe, Spain, France, Germany, and Italy all reported a post-lock-down record increase in new cases on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Sweden (which went the “herd immunity” route some support in the US), reported that it had the highest death count in more than 150 years during the first half of 2020. In Asia, South Korea had a 7^th straight day of triple-digit new cases as its curve is growing exponentially again for the first time since February. On the sub-continent, India also continues to see exponential growth in cases, but the numbers are orders of magnitude larger in India with over 69,000 new cases and an average of 980 deaths on average.

Overnight, Asian markets were deep into the red Thursday as fear from the US-China Trade War, the Fed Minutes from July and new case growth in the region spook trades. South Korea and Taiwan set the pace, both down over 3.25%. The same thing is true so far today in Europe. European bourses are down across the board with the FTSE (-1.18%), CAC (-1.10%), and DAX (-1.01%) leading the way. In the US, as of 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a modestly lower (a quarter percent or less) open this morning.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Quarles at 1 pm). Major earnings reports include BABA, BJ, and EL before the open. Then after the close ROST reports.

Wednesday’s black candles show resistance at the all-time highs remains significant in the SPY. However, the trend remains bullish in the SPY and QQQ with only the DIA doing anything resembling a pullback. I think this is partially summer doldrums, partially waiting on a stimulus deal, and partially due to waiting out the political conventions. In short, this week and next were destined to be good times for traders to take some time off.

Since we weren’t bright enough to join the vacationers, all we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, keep taking profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CSCHW, UBER, WEN, EBAY, HLF, TEAM, OSTK, PLNT, AA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Summer Doldrums Set In

August 19, 2020 by Ed Carter

Tuesday saw yet another attempt to push the SPY up through its all-time highs. A bit of a gap-up across the board came off blowout earnings from WMT and HD. However, WMT also said consumer spending has fallen off since both the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment money have been exhausted. The QQQ and SPY (barely) closed at new all-time highs. However, all 3 major indices did print indecisive candles, especially the SPY. On the day, SPY closed up 0.20%, DIA down 0.25%, and QQQ up 0.96% as AMZN, TSLA, and GOOG pushed the Nasdaq higher. VXX fell slightly to 24.33 and T2122 fell back to mid-range at 67.27. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.669% and Oil (WTI) pulled back a touch to $42.57.

This morning JNJ announced they are buying MNTA for $6.5 billion ot improve their portfolio of autoimmune disease treatments. LOW also reported a blowout Q2 on a 30% revenue surge as consumers do home projects. In addition, TGT saw profits jump 80% in Q2 as revenues grew 24.3% year-on-year (on a 700% increase in online sales) during the pandemic. This was a $2 billion revenue beat and more than double the expected earnings.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,656,204 confirmed cases and 175,092 deaths. While the new cases are falling, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly just over 49,000 new cases and 1,047 deaths per day. Three more major colleges have confirmed outbreaks or announced virtual classes to avoid the same. Notre Dame has closed for 2 weeks, Michigan State announced virtual classes for fall, and NC State has identified a cluster of cases in both multiple fraternity houses. Meanwhile, many other colleges (Tennessee, Iowa State, Appalachian State, etc.) reported clusters of new cases as students return or football teams practice.

Globally, the number of cases rose to 22,334,752 confirmed cases and 784,875 deaths. Ireland tightened restrictions again, limiting the size of outdoor gatherings, discouraging public transport, and implementing hour limits on restaurants and bars. France announced it will require face masks in all office jobs starting September 1. In South Korea, they reported the largest jump in confirmed cases of the last 5 months.

Overnight, Asian markets remained mixed, but leaned heavily toward the red. China and Thailand paced the losers while the only gainers worth mentioning were Australia (+0.72%) and South Korea (+0.52%). In Europe, markets are also mixed, but lean more to the positive side of flat. The FTSE is up 0.22%, SAX up 0.30%, and CAC up 0.16% at this point in their day. In the US, the futures are pointing at a mixed, flat open despite the great earnings reports this morning.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports include ADI, LOW, TGT, and TJX before the open. Then after the close LB, NVDA, and SNPS report.

The SPY remains right at the breakout level, this time a Doji with the body leaning on top that level. It certainly appears the summer doldrums have taken hold the last week in that index. For its part, the DIA follows suit just drifting sideways. Only the QQQ has shown any energy recently. That said, no news is sometimes good news. Maybe traders are just waiting on Republicans and Democrats to finish their conventions and reach a stimulus deal.

All we can do is follow the trend and stick to our trading rules. Don’t try to predict any reversals or breakouts. Don’t chase moves you have missed. Above all, take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. Happy Hump Day.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: CAR, SPWR, SAIL, PZZA, YUM, NKE, SEE, SCHW, CL. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Earnings Beats May Help Bulls

August 18, 2020 by Ed Carter

Monday saw another indecisive day with the bulls still unable to push the SPY up through the all-time highs. However, the bears couldn’t make any headway either as TSLA held up the QQQ. It appears the summer doldrums have hit now that we’ve regained the highs. On the day QQQ was up 1.16%, SPY up 0.32%, and DIA down 0.30%. The VXX fell to 24.59 and T2122 dropped just outside the overbought territory at 78.13. 10-year bond yields dropped a touch to 0.687% and Oil (WTI) rose to $42.84/barrel.

Before the open this morning WMT has crushed Q2 earnings estimates on a near doubling of e-commerce sales. HD also saw soaring sales and profits for Q2 as consumers invest in home renovations. However, department store chain KSS saw a 23% drop in sales for the quarter.

In non-earnings news ORCL has joined the fray to buy TikTok’s North American operations to take advantage of the President Trump-imposed fire sale. So, at the moment Byte Dance has offers from MSFT and ORCL, as well as at least an expressed interest from TWTR.

In other China-related news, the trade war continues as the US has imposed a new rule that requires a US government license before any company can sell chips made using US-made equipment to Huawei. (This rule makes US manufacturers liable for who their customers end up selling to, even through third-parties.) This rule could very well create a near-total cutoff of chips to Hauwei. In somewhat related news, last week a Chinese manufacturer debuted an x86-based computer that was built entirely using Chinese components. The result was a “surprisingly not bad” computer that can be sold throughout China to replace US-based computers. (“Surprisingly no bad” means it had a performance on par with mid-range US computers from 12-18 back. This is a major improvement on entirely-Chinese computer performance, which was 5-10 years behind in performance as little as a year ago.)

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,613,183 confirmed cases and 173,772 deaths. While the new cases are falling, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly just over 50,000 new cases and 1,068 deaths per day. In NC, the UNC closed in-person classes after accepting students back to campus as 4 clusters of cases broke out and the designated quarantine dorms started to fill up. BA announced they are offering voluntary buyouts for a second time this year in an attempt to reduce their workforce without more layoffs.

Globally, the number of cases rose to 22,079,923 confirmed cases and 778,102 deaths. The South Korean government reimposed a ban on in-person church services after a cluster of 450 people from one church tested positive. Case counts continue to rebound in that country who has been a model of response and virus control. Meanwhile, the WHO said Tuesday that the pandemic is being increasingly driven by unaware people (younger than 40) who are not taking preventative measures. The WHO official was speaking to Asia specifically. (For example, oddly, Wuhan China held a massive water park party where thousands of young people crowded in tight proximity for a party and entertainment yesterday.) However, that same comment certainly seems to apply to the US as well.

Overnight, Asian markets continue to stay mixed. South Korea was down hard (-2.46%) while New Zealand (+1.51%) and India (+1.23%) paced the gainers. Overall, the Asian markets leaned a little to the green side. In Europe, markets are much greener, but on modest moves at this point in the day. The DAX (+0.94%) is pacing the gainers with only Denmark (-0.80%) down significantly as of now. In the US, good earnings news has futures pointing to a modestly positive open. The QQQ seems to be leading with futures indicating a +0.32% open while the large-caps indices look to open up about 0.20%.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to July Building Permits and July Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports include AAP, HD, KSS, SE, and WMT before the open. Then, after the close A reports.

The SPY remains just below its all-time high after a week of trying to break through that level. The longer SPY sits there without failing, the more likely this bull run is to continue. However, it seems like the bulls won’t give an inch and the bears have no traction at all.

Follow the trend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves you have missed. Above all, take profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. And welcome back to a new week.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: EBAY, DISH, SBUX, CNP, NLS, COST, CPRI, BCRX, MPC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Power Outages and Virus Lead News

August 17, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday was another indecisive day, with the bulls unable to push the SPY up through the all-time highs and the bears unable to get any traction either. This all came after July Retail Sales which at the same time was improved and much lower than expected. The SPY closed dead-flat, the DIA up 0.14%, and the QQQ down 0.12%. The VXX remained flat at 25.44 and the T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) rose slightly back up into the overbought territory at 85.06. 10-year bond yields were also flat at 0.709% and Oil (WTI) was also flat, closing at $2.23/barrel.

After the close, the US-China Trade Deal Phase 1 review (scheduled for video conference Saturday) was canceled. This may or may not have had something to do with the President’s renewed threats/pressure on Byte Dance (TikTok) to divest US operations. However, it does give extra time for potential cooling off and, if planned, for China to buy additional goods prior to the review.

Over the weekend, large parts of CA have gone back into rolling power blackouts as their electric grid is unable to keep up with demand. The proximate cause of the grid trouble was a combination of region-wide wildfires and a major heatwave. Places like Sacramento are forecast to hit well in excess of 100 degrees early this week and the “heat dome” that is preventing rain and causing high temperatures is projected to last for 2 weeks. While the main news from the story is residential, a large number of businesses will also be impacted. Not least among them will be the state’s largest electrical utilities, PCG and EIX.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,567,765 confirmed cases and 173,139 deaths. While the new cases are falling, the 7-day averages remain stubbornly just under 53,000 new cases and 1,065 deaths per day. The good news includes 20 states with falling rates, 17 holding roughly stable, and only 13 states with rising infection rates. In a testing-related story. Saturday, CNBC reported their survey of 9,400 Americans, which found that 40% of virus test results are coming too late to be useful for either clinical or tracing purposes. In an unrelated story, the number of tests being done remains 10% below where it was a few weeks ago with no reason given for the reduction.

Globally, the number of cases rose to 21,852,024 confirmed cases and 773,586 deaths. In Europe, the recent uptick in cases continues. Over the weekend France saw a post-lockdown record high of new cases on both Saturday and Sunday. The UK has had 6 straight days over 1,000 new cases. Italy has also reinstituted a nation-wide mandatory mask mandate while also closing all bars and nightclubs. However, in Spain, hundreds of people protested in Madrid against mask requirements. In Asia, the outbreak in India continues to grow. Current 7-day averages are now at 62,500 new cases and 950 virus deaths in that country. (Keep in mind that Indian numbers are suspected to be under-reported and must be weighed against a population of 1.4 billion.)

Overnight, Asian markets continue to stay mixed. China and New Zealand led to the upside. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan led to the downside. Europe is also mixed at this point, but leans more to the green side with modest moves. The FTSE leads the gainers at +0.61% so far today. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are on the green side of flat. Nasdaq is the leader with its futures pointing to a gap up of 0.68%. The large-caps are positive, but much closer to flat.

The only major economic news for Monday is the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am). Major earnings reports are also very limited with JD reporting before the open and BEST reporting after the close.

The SPY still sits just below its all-time high after 4 straight days of testing resistance at that level. The longer SPY sits there without failure, the more likely this bull run is to continue. It just seems like the bulls won’t give an inch and the bears have no traction at all. However, markets do seem hesitant as politicians have given up on a stimulus deal for now.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: RIOT, DXC, Z, VIAC, NBL, RCL, AMAT, DG, XOP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Stimulus Deal Likely Out for Weeks

August 14, 2020 by Ed Carter

Thursday was an indecisive, up-and-down day that started with a tiny gap down in the large-caps and tiny gap up in the QQQ. This came after a better than expected Initial Jobless Claims report that came in just under 1 million new claims. However, after the roller coaster ride, markets closed very near where they opened, putting in a Doji candle in all 3 major indices. On the day, QQQ closed up 0.23%, SPY down 0.19%, and DIA down 0.22%. VXX was also flat at 25.51 and T2122 fell just outside the overbought territory at 78.57. 10-year bond yields were up strongly to 0.717% after the big afternoon bond sale and Oil (WTI) closed down a touch to $42.36/barrel.

As has been the case, there was no progress between Democrats and the White House on a stimulus bill. Senate Majority Leader McConnell adjourned the Senate for the “August Recess.” This followed the House having already adjourned, but the Senate did not even give the caveat House Speaker Pelosi had given of “Adjourned Pending a deal on a Stimulus Bill.” This means a deal is very unlikely for weeks to come as both sides (Congressional and Administration) will be much more focused on conventions and politicking than governing for at least the next few weeks.

In an interesting after-hours story, Fed Governor Brainard said the Boston Fed has been experimenting with a cryptocurrency in collaboration with MIT. The multi-year project will focus on digital currency. This seems a direct reaction to FB proposing (and then abandoning) its own alternative to Bitcoin in 2019. Brainard said that no decision has been made yet on whether to create the new cryptocurrency. However, programmers working for the Cleveland, Dallas, and New York Federal Reserve banks are collaborating on a study of implementations and implications of this technology. So, it certainly appears to be headed that way.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,416,014 confirmed cases and 170,422 deaths. The news cases Thursday were 54,364, which is just under the 7-day average. The daily deaths fell a bit to 1,284, but still well above the 7-day average. In the afternoon, Dr. Fauci said that he was not pleased with how things are going. (Specifically, he said he was disturbed by the increase in positive test rates in states like OH, KY, IN, and TN.) However, he also said we need to think about returning to a sense of normalcy, but do so while social distancing and wearing masks. On that topic, GA Governor Kemp dropped his non-starter lawsuit against Atlanta Mayor Bottoms mask mandate.

Globally, the number of cases rose to 21,100,844 confirmed cases and 758,012 deaths. In Europe, the EU closed a deal with AstaZeneca to buy 300 million doses of vaccine at an undisclosed price. In the UK, they reinstituted travel restrictions (quarantine for incoming passengers from France, Malta, or the Netherlands). This comes as France declared the cities of Paris and Marseilles as “areas of active virus circulation.” In Asia Hong Kong reported a 9% contraction of their economy for Q2 and said they expect the overall year to see a 6%-8% contraction versus 2019. (Given riots and a pandemic, that isn’t exactly shabby…if valid numbers).

Overnight, Asian markets were again mixed, but also more volatile. China led the 1% gainers, while South Korea India, and Thailand led those losing over 1%. However, in Europe we see red across the board so far today on the UK travel restrictions. The FTSE and CAC are down 1.755% apiece, the DAX down 1.04% and the rest of Europe down between 0.75% and 1.50% so far Friday. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are mixed, but leaning red. The QQQ is pointing to a 0.13% gain at the open while both large cap indices are pointing to about a 0.32% fall at the open.

The major economic news for Friday includes July Retail Sales and Q2 Nonfarm Productivity (both at 8:30 am), July Industrial Production (9:15 am), and July Business Inventories, Mich. Consumer Expectations and June Retail Inventories (all 3 at 10 am). There are no major earnings reports on the day.

The SPY still sits just below its all-time high. It still seems likely the bulls won’t give in to the bears before they reach that goal of new highs. However, markets do seem hesitant as politicians of all stripes have given up on a stimulus deal for now and more economists are predicting slower recovery in Q3 and Q4 than seen in Q2. So, be a bit careful betting either direction in the short run here.

All we can do is either lighten up positions, tighten up stops or pay extra attention to any trend reversal. Follow the trend, don’t over-extend and stick to your trading rules. Don’t try to predict reversals or chase moves you have missed, and take those profits as you go. Remember, our job is to be consistently profitable, not get rich in a few months. Also, bear in mind its Friday…of the political silly season. I might be wise to lighten up on your risk before the weekend news cycles.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PAGS, XLU, RIOT, SLV, ENPH, WU, CL, CDE, HL, NLOK. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims Lead the News

August 13, 2020 by Ed Carter

The bulls refused to give back any more ground as they can smell those all-time highs just a quarter percent above in the SPY. So, stocks gapped up 0.80% and rallied in a volatile way all day long, closing in the top 20% of their range. On the day, SPY closed up 1.36%, DIA up 1.00%, and QQQ up a hefty 2.52%. As those numbers show, money flooded back into those high-tech, mega-cap FAANG stocks, especially TSLA on the follow-through to its stock split. VXX was down sharply to 25.50 and T2122 also dropped a touch to 91.94 (still well into the overbought territory). 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.67% as money chased risk and Oil (WTI) rose $42.59/barrel.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 5,360,488 confirmed cases and 169,135 deaths. The news cases Tuesday were 54,345, which is just under the 7-day average. However, again the 1,386 deaths were well above the average. The only real news on this front is concern over the data quality. The number of tests done in the most infected states (FL, TX, CA) have fallen in the last two weeks, as the national average number of daily tests has fallen 19% in that time. This reduction takes place even while the percent positive results has increased over that time. In addition, another group of three dozen public health advisors sent a letter to HHS extremely concerned about the Federally mandated change in data collection procedures and mechanisms causing inaccuracies.

Globally, the number of cases rose to 20,836,339 confirmed cases and 747,865 deaths. In Asia, China announced today that chicken (or perhaps its packaging) imported from Brazil tested positive for the virus. India reported 67,000 new cases, which was a record high for that country. Meanwhile, in Europe, France saw its largest increase in daily cases since May 6.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time lean to the green side of flat. The winners were led by Japan (+1.78%) and Singapore (+1.28%). The only loser of note was Australia (-0.67%). Elsewhere the Asian market could best be described as just on the green side of flat. In Europe, markets are broadly in the red so far today. The FTSE leads the losses (-1.14%), but everywhere except Russia (+0.46%) sees some red at this point in the day. In the US, as of 7:30 am futures are pointing to a flat open. The Nasdaq futures are just on the green side, while the SPY and DIA futures are just on the red side of break-even.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to July Import / Exports and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). Major earnings are limited to ENS, NTES, and WCC before the open. Then after the close AMAT, BIDU, and IQ report.

The SPY sits just below its all-time high. It seems likely the bulls won’t give into a pullback before it tastes those sweet new highs. So, be careful betting on shorts until that has been accomplished. However, despite Tuesday’s black candle, markets remain quite extended. So, longs carry a fair bit of risk here too.

All we can do is either lighten up positions, tighten up stops or pay extra attention to any trend reversal. Stick with your trading rules and execute them with discipline. Don’t predict reversals or chase missed-moves, and don’t be greedy. Take your profits along the way. Remember, our job is to achieve trade goals consistently, not to hit the lottery.

The Daily Swing Trade Ideas for today: PHM, KHC, MAS, CL, FAST, DHI, EBAY, FTV, SWKS, KLAC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching