Markets diverged at the open Tuesday.  SPY opened 0.06% higher, DIA gapped down 0.36%, and QQQ opened 0.08% higher.  From there, SPY and QQQ ground sideways in a very tight range for 35 minutes before selling off sharply for 30 minutes and then moving sideways again until a little after 1 p.m.  From there, those two broader index ETFs sold off again, just much more slowly, for the rest of the day.  For its part, after its gap lower, DIA chopped sideways until 12:30 p.m. and then slowly sold off further all afternoon.  This action gave us large black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ.  (QQQ also retested and crossed below its T-line, 8ema.)  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a gap down, black-bodied candle with modest lower wick and a bit larger upper wick.  This happened on average volume in the DIA, slightly-below-average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.91%) way, way out in front leading the market lower as fears over an Israeli retaliatory strike on Iran faded temporarily.  (The thinking is apparently that Israel would wait on a US THAAD missile system to be shipped, installed, and brought on-line by 100 US troops before attacking Iran.)  On the other side, Communications Services (+0.60%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.78%, DIA lost 0.78%, and QQQ lost 1.34%. VXX gained 3.26% to close at 53.85 and T2122 fell out of its overbought territory to end in the top of its mid-range, closing at 74.65.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell quite a bit to 4.034% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.94% to close at $70.92 per barrel.   So, the Bears were in control all day Tuesday.  An accidental day early publication of earnings by ASML (-16.26%), which beat but missed on key segment growth and significantly lowered forward guidance, caused the stock to plummet.  More importantly, that read through into NVDA (-4.69%), AMD (-5.22%), and INTC (-3.33%) among other chipmakers.  (NVDA was the big hit to the overall market since it traded almost $50 billion in stock during the day.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to NY Empire State Mfg. Index, which came in much lower than expected at -11.90 (compared to a +3.40 forecast and a September +11.50 value).  Later, September NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations were flat at 3.0% (versus the August 3.0% reading).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, San Francisco Fed President Daly said the FOMC remains on track for more rate cuts this year unless data is unlike than expected. She defended the September half point rate cut, saying that it was “right-sizing.”  Daly described it as, “recognizing the progress we’ve made (on inflation) and loosening the policy reins a bit, but not letting go.” She went on, “even with this adjustment, policy remains restrictive, exerting additional downward pressure on inflation to ensure it reaches 2%.”  Looking forward, Daly said, “I think one or two [rate cuts] this year would be a reasonable thing.”  Regarding quantitative tightening, “Right now, today, I don’t have any signs this is something that needs to change right away.” She concluded saying, “The economy is clearly in a better place (regarding inflation),” … “the risks to our goals are now balanced.”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told an event that he has penciled in just one more (quarter point) cut to rates in 2024 when he updated his “dot” at the September FOMC meeting. Bostic said, “The median was for … 50 basis points more, above and beyond the 50 basis points that was done in September. My dot was 25 basis points more.”  However, Bostic said he is open to changing his view and it is not set in stone.  Bostic said, “I am keeping my options open.” 

After the close, FULT, HWC, and OMC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, JBHT and UAL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, IBKR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, BX announced plans to invest $8.2 billion to build data centers in northeastern Spain.  Later, WBA announced it was closing 1,200 stores over the next three years (while simultaneously announcing beats on both lines of its earnings report).  At the same time, AAPL launched a new version of its iPad mini, which includes AI features.  Later, JNJ raised its 2024 sales and profit forecasts on strong cancer drug sales. Meanwhile, BA announced plans to raise $25 billion through the issuance of new stock and another $10 billion through a credit agreement with major lenders.  The move comes as the company looks to shore up its balance sheet to avoid a debt rating cut to junk status amidst a strike that has shut down its most-profitable product line’s production and ongoing regulatory and quality problems.  (For reference, the strike alone is costing BA more than $1 billion per month.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that Biden Administration officials “have discussed” capping the sales of advanced AI chips from NVDA, AMD, INTC, etc. on a country specific (read China) basis.  (What this does not mention is that China can buy as much access as they want to the computer power via cloud computing from US-located hardware from GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, MSFT, etc.  In other words, unless they also ban cloud sales, the same amount of hardware would be sold…just to different destinations.)

Elsewhere, INTC and AMD announced they have formed an “advisory council” (along with smaller hardware and software firms) for the x86 computer architecture. The aim of the group is to steer both x86 chipmakers toward consistent and compatible functions and features.  (This is seen as a way to compete against the ARM and RISC V architectures.  However, it is just as important to prevent incompatibilities such have previously been seen in MSFT’s Windows where one company’s CPU do not perform as well or cannot support the same features.)  Later. Reuters reported that XOM is looking for a buyer for some of its ND (Bakken formation) shale oil assets. The report said XOM is seeking more than $500 million for 137 active wells, 676 non-active, and 49,000 acres of drilling rights.  After the close, NYCB announced it will rename itself “Flagstar Financial” and change its ticker to FLG, effective Oct. 25 as part of the bank’s turnaround efforts.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, SCBFF (Standard Chartered bank) won a UK court ruling which allows it to replace the financial benchmark (LIBOR) used to set dividend rates.  Despite investor objections, the court ruled it was acceptable for the bank to use a “reasonable alternative rate.” Later, TSLA announced it had received local German approval for the first stage of a plant expansion (a planned doubling of capacity) at its Berlin-area plant.  At the same time, DLAKY (Lufthansa) agreed to pay a $4 million penalty for discriminating against Jewish passengers attempting to board a connecting flight in Frankfurt in May 2022.  Later, NYT sent a “cease and desist” letter to AI startup Perplexity related to the AI using NYT content.  At the same time, the FCC announced it has opened an investigation of broadband internet providers on why data is capped for some customers and not others as well as how the policies impact consumer prices and competition. Later, the US Supreme Court heard a case involving a NY man fired from his commercial truck driver job for failing a drug test after taking CBD product he alleged was falsely marketer by MJNA as not containing the THC component the employment test measured.  (The man was seeking permission to sue the maker under the CA state RICO Act.) 

Elsewhere, GSK sued MRNA in US federal court, alleging the latter violated the former’s patent rights in the creation of MRNA’s COVID-19 vaccine and RSV vaccine.  Later, a CT jury awarded $15 million to a man who alleged the company’s talc had caused the rare form of cancer he contracted as a result of using JNJ talc for decades.  After the close, the US Dept. of Energy announced it had closed an $861 million loan guarantee to allows AES and TTE to build two solar farms and battery storage systems in Puerto Rico.  At the same time, a US District Judge ruled that META must face lawsuits brought by US states that accuse the company’s products of fueling mental health problems in teens.  (30 states are signed onto one such suit while another suit was brought by the state of FL.) The judge also rejected motions by META, GOOLG, SNAP and others asking to dismiss personal injury lawsuits by individual plaintiffs over the same subject.  Later, a federal judge ordered BA and the Dept. of Justice to provide details on the impact of company Diversity and Inclusion policies on the selection of an independent monitor prior to his deciding whether or not to accept the BA plea deal for violating the 2021 deferred prosecution agreement.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, the FAA opened an “audit” into runway incursion risks at the 45 busiest US airports after a series of troubling near-miss incidents. (For example, air traffic controllers cleared an ALK flight to take off on a Nashville runway where a LUV plane had been cleared to cross the runway last month.)  Elsewhere, the National Retail Federation released its annual holiday sales forecast.  The NRF says it expects retail holiday sales to grow 3.5% in 2024 compared to 3.9% last year.  The forecast also calls for online sales to grow 9% compared to 2023. (These numbers are partially impacted by a shorter window from Thanksgiving to Christmas this year that is forcing sellers to push holiday sales earlier into non-traditional shopping periods.)

In Middle East news, on Tuesday, US Sec. of State Blinken and Sec. of Defense Austin warned Israel to allow at least 300 trucks of aid into Gaza within the next 30 days or risk losing access to US weapons funding.  (Israel has cut humanitarian aid to less than 50% of what it was at its post-Israeli-invasion peak.  Even that peak is said by NGO analysts to not be enough to avoid mass deaths from hunger and the lack of medical supplies.)  At the same time, the UN called for an investigation into an Israeli attack in a northern Lebanon countryside Christian village which killed two dozen (in pursuit of a single mid-level Hezbollah leader).  Meanwhile, US officials leaked to the AP that Israel has promised not to attack Iranian nuclear or oil sites.  Elsewhere, 41 new Lebanese were killed in 146 Israeli attacks Tuesday and the total number of Israeli attacks on that country passed 10k since the beginning of the most-recent hostilities one year ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were heavily red. Thailand (+1.36%) printed the only appreciable green while Japan (-1.83%), New Zealand (-1.55%), and Taiwan (-1.21%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses also lean toward the red with only four of the 14 showing green at midday.  The CAC (-0.52%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (+0.65%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.01% and Oil (WTI) is off another half percent to $70.20 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes September Export Price Index and September Import Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, and USB.  Then, after the close, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, PPG, STLD, and SNV report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, August Retail Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from, BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, WIT, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

So far this morning, CFG, FHN, MS, SYF, and USB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that MS beat on revenue by 6.7% while crushing earnings by 19%.

With that background, it looks as if all three major index ETFs are very modestly bullish in the premarket. All three have printed small white-body candles inside Tuesday’s black body. QQQ did retest its T-line (and passed so far) from above this morning. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bull in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is back in (the top of) its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if traders can find momentum, but the Bears have slightly more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+0.74%) is back to leading that pack in terms of price move and has traded more than three times as much dollar-volume than any other ticker in the early session.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw the bulls in control from the start.  SPY gapped up 0.29%, DIA opened 0.10% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.49%.  From there, the Bulls took over in all three major index ETFs.  The QQQ rallied sharply for 30 minutes, SPY rallied strongly tor 60 minutes, and DIA rallied more modestly, but steadily all day.  After their initial rallies, SPY and QQQ traded mostly sideways with a slight bullish lean the rest of the day. It is worth noting that there was profit-taking across the board in the last 10 minutes.  This action gave us large-body, white body candles in the SPY and DIA as well as a white-bodied candle in the QQQ.  SPY gapped up and printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close. DIA opened a bit lower but gave us a large white-body candle that also printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close.  QQQ gapped up well out of its range going back to late September.  It closed as a white Spinning Top with the larger wick at the top and ended 1.25% below its all-time high.  This all happened on well-below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.27%) out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.36%) was by far the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.82%, DIA gained 0.50%, and QQQ gained 0.84%. VXX fell another 3.55% to close at 52.15 and T2122 fell but remained in the top half of its overbought territory, closing at 91.78.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields were flat at 4.096% while Oil (WTI) dropped 3.72% to close at $72.75 per barrel.  So, the Bulls were again in control from the open.  This led to a morning rally and then a drift higher the rest of the day in SPY, QQQ, and DIA. Once again, only a little profit-taking the last few minutes of the day stopped the SPY and DIA from closing on the highs.  

There was no major economic news or earnings reports scheduled for Monday.  

In Fed news, on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari indicated that more rate cuts lie ahead, but guided expectations toward more modest rate cuts.  Kashkari said, “As of right now, it appears likely that further modest reductions in our policy rate will be appropriate in the coming quarters to achieve both sides of our mandate.” As usual, he promoted the “data driven” mantra, saying “ultimately, the path ahead for policy will be driven by the actual economic, inflation and labor market data.”  He went on to say that the economy is not on the verge of a rapid slowdown, but the Fed is “in the final stages of bringing inflation down to our 2% target.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller called for “more caution” (smaller rate cuts) in the interest reductions ahead.  Waller said, “Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year.”  While saying that there is “considerable room” to cut rates, he said “We are in the sweet spot right now, we got to keep it there, that’s our job.”  He continued, “I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting.”  Waller concluded, “I will be watching to see whether data, due out before our next meeting, on inflation, the labor market and economic activity confirms or undercuts my inclination to be more cautious about loosening monetary policy.”  (When asked what the word “gradually” means, Waller said, “It’s in the eye of the beholder, … That’s for you guys to figure out.”

In stock news, on Monday, ADBE said it has begun rolling out its Firefly AI model that can generate video from text prompts.  Later, activist investor Elliott Investment Mgmt. has formally requested a shareholder meeting of LUV.  (Elliott plans to put forward its own slate of eight directors against eight existing board members. For reference, LUV has a 12-member board with three open seats.)  At the same time, GM and BCS both announced they have signed a long-term credit card partnership.  Later, Danish drug maker Lundbeck A/S agreed to acquire LBPH for $2.6 billion ($60/share), which was a 54% premium on Friday’s close price.  At the same time, GOOGL announced it had signed an agreement to buy 500 megawatts of electricity from multiple small modular nuclear reactors from Kairos Power.  This will help support GOOGL’s AI processing.  Later, VNDA rejected a second ($8/share) takeover bid from UK-based Cycle Pharmaceuticals.  (VNDA closed a $4.44 prior to the $8/share offer and closed up to $4.81 on the news.) 

Elsewhere, TSLA took another hit related to its Robotaxi “unveil” event last week. This came as Bloomberg reporting confirmed that the TSLA Optimus humanoid robots highlighted at the event were actually just radio-control units being controlled by human “driver.”  At the same time, HYMTF (Hyundai) sold part of their Indian unit “Hyundai India” via a $989.4 million IPO.  BLK, Fidelity, and the government of Singapore each bought $77 million stakes while Indian mutual funds bought $340 million. (At that valuation, the unit represents 40% of the HYMTF market cap.)  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that SBUX will offer fewer discounts and promotions as part of a plan to reposition SBUX as a premium brand and getting customers to pay full price.  After the close, PSX announced it will sell 49% of its Coop Mineraloel AG to its Swiss joint venture partner for $1.24 billion.  (The joint venture operates 324 petrol stations across Switzerland.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, acting US Labor Sec. Su flew to Seattle to meet with both sides in the BA strike that is entering its fifth week. (In related news, BA said it will issue “60-day” notices to another tranche of engineering union workers on November 15, with a second wave of 60-day notices going out in December if the strike had not been resolved.)  After the close, Blue Cross Blue Shield agreed to pay $2.8 billion to settle class action lawsuits from hospitals, physicians, and other healthcare providers who alleged they had been underpaid for reimbursements.  (The deal is still subject to approval by a US District Judge in Alabama.)

In analyst news, heading into earnings season, Bloomberg Intelligence reported that the data they have collected show analysts expect S&P 500 firms to report a 4.2% increase in third-quarter earnings versus a year earlier. However, company guidance, implies a jump of about 16%.  This unusually large difference between the forecasts suggest to Bloomberg that companies should easily beat the estimates on average.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, FEMA reported that over the weekend contractors in NC were forced to cease work and return to their hotels Sunday while security was arranged. This came after some of the lies of the disgraced ex-President and his conspiracy-loving minions came home to roost. On Sunday, active military units that had been deployed to help recovery came across a militia group out “hunting FEMA workers” (based on the militia’s belief of the lies spread by the MAGA fools).  Separately, the Sheriff arrested one man armed with a handgun and semi-auto rifle, apparently from the same militia, who was out menacing recovery efforts, but he was later released on bond.  Two full days of recovery in Western NC and Eastern TN lost thanks to the right-wing stirring hatred and distrust for the political gain of one man. Elsewhere, in Russia that man’s friend invited fellow BRICS members to join together to create an alternative to the IMF to counter Western political influence throughout the world.

In Middle East news, on Monday, Israel continued strikes in both Gaza and Lebanon. One of the strikes in Gaza hit a Palestinian hospital and refugee camp located beside the medical building. (There was video of patients burning alive in their hospital beds.)  more than two dozen were killed including many children.  Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu again demanded that the UN remove peacekeepers and observers from Lebanon, falsely claiming UN troops were shields for Hezbollah. On the other side, Hezbollah made a drone attack on an IDF base, killing four Israeli soldiers and injuring 60.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China out front leading the losers down.  Hong Kong (-3.67%), Shenzhen (-2.53%), and Shanghai (-2.53%) saw by far the biggest losses.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+1.38%), Australia (+0.79%), and Japan (+0.77%) paced the six gainers.  In Europe, we see a similarly mixed picture that leans toward the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.90%), DAX (+0.15%), and FTSE (-0.56%) lead the region with just five green bourses versus nine red ones in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bonds are down to 4.073% and Oil (WTI) has plummeted another 4.66% to $70.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 a.m.), September NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Daly (11:30 a.m.) and Bostic (7 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ACI, BAC, SCHW, C, ERIC, GS, JNJ, PNC, PGR, STT, UNH, and WBA. Then, after the close, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September Export Price Index, September Import Index, and API Weekly Crude Stocks are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, August Retail Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, PPG, STLD, and SNV report.  On Thursday, we hear from, BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, WIT, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

So far this morning, BAC, ERIC, GS, JNJ, PNC, STT, UNH, and WBA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  STT in particular had huge beats (+29.6% on revenue and +8.7% on earnings) while BAC managed +10.0% on revenue and +3.8% on earnings.  GS was the king on profit, delivering a 22.6% beat on the earnings line.

With that background, it seems the premarket is undecided with all three major index ETFs basically flat and giving use Doji candles in the early session. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term and longer-term trends are also strongly Bull in all three. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema), although it is worth noting that DIA is getting close to extended. However, the T2122 indicator remains in the upper half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if traders can find momentum, but the Bears have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six are in the green this morning. AAPL (+0.88%) leads the way in gain while AMD (-1.59%) is the laggard in that regard. That biggest dog, NVDA (-0.62%) is back to leading all other tickers by a factor of three in terms of dollar-volume traded.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged at the opening bell Friday.  SPY opened just 0.01% lower, DIA opened 0.16% higher, and QQQ gapped down 0.39%.  However, regardless of their open, the Bulls stepped in and rallied all three major index ETFs sharply for an hour.  That was about it for the say as the SPY, DIA and QQQ meandered sideways with a slight bullish trend the rest of the day.  This action gave us large white-bodied candles with small profit-taking wicks at the top in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and DIA both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes on Doji Continuation Pattern (Doji Sandwich) signals.  Meanwhile, the QQQ gave us the highest close since July 16.  This happened on just above-average volume in DIA, just below-average volume in the SPY, and well-below average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+2.01%) well out in front leading the market higher.  On the other side, Communication Services (+0.30%) was the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.60%, DIA gained 0.96%, and QQQ gained just 0.16%. VXX fell 1.17% to close at 54.07 and T2122 spiked to the top of its overbought territory, closing at 93.98.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields climbed to close at 4.096% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.47% to close at $75.49 per barrel.  So, the Bulls ruled the roost Friday as a strong morning rally led to a melt-up after the first hour.  Only a little profit-taking the last few minutes of the day stopped the three major index ETFs from closing on the highs.  

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included September Core PPI, which came in down, as expected, at +0.2% (compared to at +0.2% forecast and August’s +0.3% value).  On the headline number, September PPI was down and better than was anticipated at 0.0% (versus a forecast of +0.1% and well down from August’s +0.2%).  Later, Preliminary October Michigan Consumer Sentiment was down to 68.9 (versus a 70.9 forecast and a 70.1 September reading).  In terms of the outlook, the Preliminary October Michigan Consumer Expectations were also down at 72.9 (compared to a 75.0 forecast and September’s 74.4 value). In terms of inflation, the Preliminary October Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations popped to 2.9% (versus a 2.7% forecast and previous month value).  On the longer-term, Preliminary October Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were down as expected to 3.0% (compared to a 3.0% forecast and a September 2.7% reading).

In stock news, on Friday, Nippon Steel announced it would sell its 50% stake in a joint-venture steel plant in AL to MT…if the X acquisition succeeds.  Nippon would take a $1.55 billion loss on the joint-venture by selling their stake to MT for one dollar. Later, Bloomberg reported that HON is in advanced talks to sell its face mask (PPE gear) unit to private equity firm Odyssey for about $1.5 billion.  At the same time, Reuters reported that CVS is exiting its “core infusion services” business and plans to close or sell 29 pharmacies as a result.  (CVS had stopped taking new patients in that unit on Oct. 8.)  The unit was purchase in 2013 for $2.1 billion.  Meanwhile, after posting strong earnings, executives from both JPM and WFC commented that the consumers are still in good shape.  JPM’s CFO said “Overall, we see the spending patterns as being sort of solid.”  The CFO of WFC echoed the same sentiment, telling reporters that “spending on credit and debit cards, while down a little from earlier this year, was still quite solid.”  Later, WSR said it will “carefully consider” at $15/share takeover offer from MCB Real Estate.  (WSR stock closed at $14.15 Friday.)

In BA news, the company announced it was cutting 17,000 jobs (about 10% of workforce globally) and will delay the first delivery of its new 777X jet by a year (that plane had been halted prestrike due to cracking in the part connect engines to its wings).  The company cited its dire financial situation as a month-long strike by 33k employees have idled manufacturing and delivery of its most profitable plane. (Years of quality debacles and mismanagement were also massive contributors.)  Analysts say the move, as well as rescinding its most recent contract offer are moves designed to pressure the union into ending the strike. On the other side, credit analysts have BA on credit watch and have already said they will cut the company credit rating to junk unless the strike is resolved “soon.” 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, BA filed unfair labor practices against the union representing 33k striking workers with the NLRB. The company alleges the union is bargaining in bad faith.  In unrelated news, the US Dept. of Transportation Inspector General said the FAA oversight of BA production was ineffective. The IG said the FAA did not have enough comprehensive presence to identify discrepancies and company non-compliance.  (Of course, that is the entire intent of deregulation, cuts to the size of government, and moves toward company self-certification that has been lobbied for and granted for decades.)  Later, a federal judge in TX criticized the terms of the plea deal BA had taken to avoid prosecution for violations of an earlier consent decree related to two fatal 737 MAX planes.  The judge pressed the Dept. of Justice to justify the leniency of giving that deal to BA. (He later said he would rule on whether the deal was valid in the near future.) 

Elsewhere, the NLRB filed a complaint against AAPL for restricting employee use of social media and messaging apps and doing illegal monitoring of them as a means of discouraging unionization.  Later, a US Appeals Court placed approvals and permits for a KMI gas pipeline in TN on hold by over-riding the Army Corps of Engineers permit and TN Dept. of Environment and Conservations certification.  The court said the stay would give the court time to consider the merits of a lawsuit brought by environmental groups.  On Saturday, GOOGL filed a motion asking the judge to place his final ruling on the fate of “opening up the Google Play Store” following the jury ruling that GOOGL was an illegal monopoly.  (GOOGL ask the judge to place an indefinitely hold on his judgement, which was due by November 1, while the company pursues appeals.)

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the state of CA confirmed six more human cases of bird flu (four Thursday and two Friday).  The US CDC said that all six cases appear to be due to human contact with animals (as opposed to human transmission) and that the public risk of the flu remains low as a result.  Elsewhere, US and European officials confirmed to Bloomberg that India has become the second-biggest illegitimate supplier of restricted components (like microchips) to Russia, behind China.  This comes as India doubled its export of those items to Russia in both April and May and increased it by more than 50% from those levels in July.  Meanwhile, in Russian invasion news, on Friday multiple journalist outlets, all citing South Korean sources, reported the latter had made intercepts of communication between North Korean military units. Those intercepts indicate North Korea has sent troops to help in missile targeting and is now preparing to send ground troops to Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia. (Obviously, this could give Russia thousands of trained troops, but may also result in changes to US policy on the use of US arms and potentially changes South Korea’s calculus on providing arms to Ukraine.) Russia denied the reports

In Middle East news, on Friday, the Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued as the Israelis fired on UN troop positions for the second day in a row, injuring another two of the peacekeepers.  Israel also fired on Lebanese government (not Hezbollah) troops.  However, the worse of the Israeli attacks Friday were in a residential section of central Beirut where bombing took out another pair of apartment blocks, a number of shops, as well as a refugee encampment. For their part, Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets into Northern Israel in response. On Saturday, Israel bombed towns in northern Lebanon, ordered the evacuation of 23 villages in “southern” Lebanon (North of Beirut), and also bombed the Bekaa Valley (45 miles Northeast of Beirut).  Further south, Israel laid down heavy bombardment across northern Gaza, killing a few dozen more people. On Sunday, Israel ordered more evacuations in Lebanon, now including fully one-third of that country’s population has been ordered out. (This includes UN peacekeepers, where Israel has attacked and breached two UN bases Sunday, ordering UN troops to leave the country…for their own safety.)

In China news, on Saturday, Chinese Finance Minister Foan held a press conference in Beijing that was intended to calm markets.  Foan pledged that the government will “significantly increase” debt to revive its sputtering economy.  However, details on the actual amounts left investors guessing about the total size of the stimulus.  (Last week the market had expected massive stimulus, but only got one-fifteenth the amount they had expected.) Foan said programs will offer subsidies for low-income people and also support property markets.  Separately, Bloomberg reported Beijing is now considering injecting $142 billion into the country’s largest banks on top of $284 billion in stimulus (resulting from special sovereign bond sales) this year to be used to spur the economy.  (Half of the $284 billion was to go to local governments and the other half to incentives for buying home appliances and other durable goods.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Only Hong Kong (-0.75%), and New Zealand (-0.61%) were red while Shenzhen (+2.65%) and Shanghai (+2.07%) paced the 10 gaining exchanges.  In Europe, markets are more mixed at midday with six bourses in the green and eight in the red.  The CAC (-0.30%), DAX (+0.23%), and FTSE (-0.07%) are typical in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and modest start to the week.  The DIA implies a -0.16% open, the SPY is implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.096% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.51% to $73.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday are limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.) and September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Waller (3 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get NY Empire State Mfg. Index.  We also hear from Fed member Daly.  Then Wednesday, September Export Price Index, September Import Index, and API Weekly Crude Stocks are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, September Retail Control, September Retail Sales, September Industrial Production, August Business Inventories, August Retail Inventories, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary September Building Permits and Preliminary September Housing Starts are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ACI, BAC, SCHW, C, ERIC, GS, JNJ, PNC, PGR, STT, UNH, WBA, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL.  Then Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LBRT, PPG, STLD, and SNV report.  On Thursday, we hear from, BX, CMC, ELV, HBAN, INFY, KEY, MTB, MAN, MMC, SNA, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, WIT, CCK, ISRG, NFLX, WDFC, and WAL.  Finally, on Friday, ALLY, AXP, ALV, CMA, FITB, PG, RF, and SLB report.

With that background, the SPY and QQQ both opened the premarket flat but have printed white-body candles and are not far from their highs at this point of the early session up in clean air. Meanwhile, DIA opened higher but has put in a black candle so far to be back down slightly in the top of Friday’s candle. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is in the upper half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if traders can find momentum, but the Bears have more slack to work with today. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning. TSLA (+1.12%) leads the way in both price move and volume as it tries to come back from Friday’s robotaxi hammering. INTC (+0.25%) is the laggard among the 10. It is worth noting that TSLA has just slightly more dollar-volume traded than NVDA (+1.08%), which is abnormal (NVDA typically leads all other tickers by at least a factor of 2.5). So, just be aware.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a volatile, up-and-down day in the market.  SPY gapped down 0.22%, DIA opened flat, and QQQ gapped down 0.45%. From there, all three major index ETFs slowly rallied to the highs shortly after noon.  Then they slowly sold off to the lows at 2:45 p.m.  Finally, all three rallied back towards the highs again to end the day.  This action gave us indecisive (more wick than body) candles in the top half of the prior day’s candle.  The SPY printed a white-body Doji.  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a black-bodied Hanging Man or Hammer type candle.  Finally, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Communication Services (-0.72%) leading the way lower.  On the other end of the spectrum, Energy (+0.88%) was far out ahead of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.18%, DIA lost 0.09%, and QQQ lost 0.11%. VXX gained 1.26% to close at 54.71 and T2122 fell back to the lower half of its mid-range to 37.58.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 4.067% while Oil (WTI) jumped another 3.21% to close at $75.59 per barrel. In summary, Thursday was just an indecisive “pause day” where most of the day was spent in the upper half of Wednesday’s strong bullish candle.  There was no new all-time highs or new all-time high closes.  However, SPY and DIA are withing spitting distance of both. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in significantly higher than expected at 258k (compared to a 231k forecast and the previous week’s 225k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 1,861k (versus the 1,830k forecast and the prior week’s 1,819k).  At the same time, September Core CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +0.3% (which was higher than the +0.2% forecast, but in-line with August’s +0.3%).  On the annualized basis, September Core CPI (year-on-year) increased a tick to 3.3% (compared to an August reading and forecast of 3.2%).  On the headline number, September CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +0.2% (versus a +0.1% forecast and in-line with August’s +0.2% value). Later, after the close, the September Fed Balance Sheet stayed dead flat for the week at $7.047 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterate that he foresees a series of rate cuts over the next year. Goolsbee said, “Over a 12-18 month period, I think we are going to gradually, whatever word you want to use, move to a steady state policy rate.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams said he too expects more rate cuts lay ahead.  Williams said, “Based on my current forecast for the economy, I expect that it will be appropriate to continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.” As usual, Williams indicated that all specific meeting decisions will be data driven.  He said, “the timing and pace of future adjustments to interest rates will be based on the evolution of the data, the economic outlook, and the risks to achieving our goals.” Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic seemed to indicate the Fed may skip a rate cut in November.  Bostic said, “I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate.”  He went on to say, “I think we have the ability to be patient and wait and let things play out a little longer…. There are elements of today’s report which I think validate that view.”

In stock news, on Thursday, NVDA held an “AI summit” to outline the advancements in its next generation AI chips.  In an attempt to steal some of NVDA’s thunder, AMD also announced its own next generation AI chip (to be available in Q4 and ship in quantity in early 2025) at an event at the same time.  (The problem for AMD is that NVDA offers a proprietary on-chip technology called CUDA cores and most AI software is written to take advantage of that technology. This means those users are locked into NVDA AI processors.  AMD is still building out its competing tech called ROCm.) NVDA stock was up 1.,63% while AMD (-4.00%) got hammered.  Later, GM announced they will be offering new home energy storage and solar collection products to EV customers (just as TSLA offers).

Elsewhere, UBS said integration of CS data into the UBS systems is on track after a test run. (UBS acquired CS in March 2023 to prevent the latter’s collapse.)  Later, in a novel excuse, DAL warned of lower revenue and blamed the Q4 forecast reduction on the presidential election, saying that people are avoiding travel so they can stay home to vote.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that TGI is exploring strategic options including a sale of the company. At the same time, SNY announced it had closed the sale of its consumer health unit for $16.4 billion (to a private equity firm). After the close, SEC filings showed that BRKB has now reduced its BAC holdings below 10% by selling another 9.5 million shares this week.  This sale netted BRKB $382.4 million.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the Consumer Product Safety Commission announced MAT is recalling 21 different models of infant swings after five reported suffocation deaths.  In addition, MAT is offering a $25 partial refund to those customers who just cut off the headrest and body support pad (offending parts) on their own.  (About 2.2 million of the swings were sold in North American between 2012 and 2022.)  At the same time, the US Justice Dept. announced that TD has plead guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering and will pay a massive $3.1 billion fine. TD will also be subject to an asset cap and other restrictions as part of the guilty plea.  Later, MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN (among others) have proposed an “alternative framework” for how data centers pay for power in OH.  This is a direct challenge to the AEP proposal that cryptocurrency miners and data centers prepay or offer other financial assurances for their massive energy needs. 

Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Justice announced that TEVA has agreed to pay $450 million to resolve allegation it used charities to help cover Medicare patient out-of-pocket drug costs as a way to pay kickbacks to boost sales of its multiple sclerosis drug.  (12 other drugmakers had previously settled over the same charges to the tune of $1 billion in fines.  However, the case against REGN remains pending.)  Later, a Philadelphi jury ordered BAYRY (Bayer) to pay $78 million to a PA man who had alleged he got cancer from using the company’s Roundup weedkiller.  At the same time, a US Bankruptcy Judge overruled the motion from the US Justice Dept., ruling in favor of LNJ which is now allowed to pursue a third attempt to get a bankruptcy judge to end tens of thousands of lawsuits over talc cancer risks.  (JNJ had “venue shopped” by filing the latest bankruptcy in TX after twice being denied by NJ bankruptcy courts.)  Later, following a decade of unfulfilled promised and missed deadlines, TSLA held an event Thursday night to unveil their robotaxi, which they dubbed “Cybertaxi.”

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the largest US power grid operator issued a warning over potential disruptions which may be caused by a massive solar flare. (The warning expired very early Friday morning.  Meanwhile, the Center for Disease Control said it had identified a cluster of 18 cases of MPOX (formerly Monkey Pox) that are drug-resistant across five states.  Elsewhere, the FTC finalized changes to a rule covering what information companies must turn over when seeking approval for proposed mergers.  Finally, Hurricane Milton appears to have killed 10 and left three million customers without power at one point Thursday.  However, the damage was much less than had been expected, with the bulk coming from flooding due to intense rain as well as 27 tornadoes spawn by the storm.  (After the close, DIS and CMCSA announced their theme parks in Orlando would resume operations Friday.)

In Middle East news, Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued Thursday.  Israel killed 30 in the bombing of a school/shelter in Gaza and dozens more in attacks on buildings in central Beirut. In addition, Israel injured two UN peacekeepers in a tank fire accident. (The peacekeepers have been in place between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon since 1978, following a previous Israeli invasion.)  In Europe, on the heels of France’s call for an arms embargo on Israel, Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador to make formal complaints over “unacceptable” actions in Southern Lebanon. 

In other war news, it was confirmed Thursday that Russia has attacked three civilian ships under foreign flag (not Russian or Ukrainian) that were carrying commercial grain shipments.  (None of the ships have been sunk.  However, they were damaged and this is an escalation from early in Russia’s invasion when it boarded, inspected, and/or turned back ships.)  In response, insurance rates on a $50 million ship increased by $125k per voyage in the Black Sea.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Shenzhen (-3.92%) and Shanghai (-2.55%) were far out front in terms of losses while Hong Kong (+2.98%) and Taiwan (+1.07%) were way out front leading the gainers.  In Europe, we nearly see green across the board at midday the sole exception of London.  The CAC (+0.10%), DAX (+0.19%), and laggard FTSE (-0.08%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures point toward a slightly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.098% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.71% to $75.29 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include September Core PPI and September PPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 1:10 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC as earnings season kicks into gear again. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, BK, BLK, JPM, and WFC show a clean sweep of beats on both the revenue and earnings lines by the big banks.  However, FAST missed on revenue even as it came in in-line on earnings.

With that background, markets are just on the red side of flat again at this point of the premarket. QQQ has the worst-looking candle and, even so, it is just a black spinning top inside the top half of yesterday’s inside candle. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator remains in the lower half of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (-6.01%) is getting hammered after a very unimpressive reveal of its robotaxi late last night. AMD (+0.96%) leads the gainers and for the first time in a long time, TSLA leads in terms of dollar-volume traded even on not heavy trading as NVDA (-0.01%) has EXTREMELY light, as in 10% of normal, volume in the premarket. This is very abnormal premarket trading. Don’t forget its Friday. So, prepare your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day flat, rallied into noon, and then traded sideways before rallying again the last 30 minutes.  SPY opened up 0.02%, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ opened down 0.06%.  From there SPY and DIA began their rally into noon.  QQQ pulled back for 20 minutes after the open, but then got in line and followed the other major index ETFs higher.  At noon, all three took a 3.5-hour break before rallying into new highs near the close.  They all would have closed on their highs except for profit taking the last 5 minutes.  This action gave us large, white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks in all three major index ETF.  SPY printed a new all-time high and closed at a new all-time high close.  DIA gave us a new all-time high close.  QQQ didn’t make it as far, only printing its highest close since July 16. (QQQ is just less than 2% away from its all-time high close.)  This all took place on below-average volume in SPY and QQQ and above-average volume in DIA. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+0.79%) leading but not way out ahead of other sectors.  Only Utilities (-0.62%) was in the red and lagged far behind all other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.69%, DIA gained 1.01%, and QQQ gained 0.79%. VXX fell almost 2.5% to close at 54.03 and T2122 climbed a bit, but remains in its mid-range, at 68.36.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 4.073% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.38% to close at $73.28 per barrel. In summary, it was the Bull’s market from the open of the session.  A flat start across the board led to a strong morning rally.  This was followed by an afternoon pause, but the Bulls came back for the last 30 minutes to drive us back to new highs.  It is worth noting that the September Fed Meeting Minutes were a nothing burger.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in with a larger inventory build than expected at +5.810 million barrels (compared to a +2.000-million-barrel forecast and ever versus the prior week’s +3.889 million barrels). 

As mentioned, we also got the September FOMC Meeting Minutes in the afternoon on Wednesday.  They really revealed nothing that was not know from Fed Chair Powell’s post-decision press conference and other Fed member statements since.  It said that Fed members “were divided” on whether the rat cut should have been a half percent.  (That said, the most hawkish FOMC member, Fed Governor Bowman, was the only voter to vote against the half-percent cut.  She said she preferred a quarter-point cut instead.  In fact, the minutes said “a substantial majority” of Fed members backed the half-percent cut.)  The minutes said, “Some participants observed that they would’ve preferred a 25-basis-point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.” Later, the minutes said, “Participants emphasized that it was important to communicate that the recalibration of the stance of policy at this meeting should not be interpreted as evidence of a less favorable economic outlook or as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments of the appropriate path.”  The bottom line is that FOMC members believed the economy remains in good shape and are confident inflation is falling toward the 2% target.  The minutes showed the division was not over any data in-hand, but rather about their forecast of the future economy. 

In other Fed news, on Wednesday, Dallas Fed President Logan said she supported last month’s half-point rate cut.  However, she said she also wants smaller cuts in the meetings ahead given remaining upside risks on inflation and “meaningful uncertainty” over the economic outlook.  She said, “Following last month’s half-percentage-point cut in the fed funds rate, a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”

In stock news, on Wednesday, TSLA announced that its sales of China-made vehicles were up 19.2% in September (year-on-year) in China.  (For reference, the Chinese EV maker BYD, which is TSLA’s main competitor reported a 45.56% increase year-on-year in September.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that TSLA’s robotaxi will have two front seats and gull-wing doors.  The report also said TSLA CEO Musk is expected to “discuss “Full Self-Driving” software assistance from TSLA semis soon. Later, META announced it is expanding the availability of its AI chatbot (META AI) to 21 new markets, including the UK and Brazil in efforts to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  At the same time, EADSY (Airbus) reported that its plane deliveries fell 9% in September to 50 compared to the same month in 2023.  (This comes a day after BA reported just 33 planes delivered last month.)  Later, Bloomberg reported that the CEO of STLA is planning on making major management changes as he faces heavy pressure.  The report said, CEO Tavares’ plan (offered to the board to save his job at a two-day meeting this week) could affect finance teams, regional heads and brand executives among others.  After the close, CNBC reported that AMZN is now testing full-automated mini-warehouses for Whole Foods stores.  The move is intended to let customers pick up orders at the checkout and reduce shopping time.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, NVAX received European Commission approval for its latest version of COVID-19 vaccine which targets the currently predominant JN.1 strain of the virus.  The authorization was for individuals 12 years and older throughout the EU.  At the same time, BIIB’s flezartamab antibody treatment received the FDA’s “breakthrough therapy” designation.  BIIB said the drug will now begin late-stage trials. Later, the NHTSA announced that HMC is recalling 2 million cars and SUVs over a steering issue that can increase the risk of crashes.  (!.7 million of the vehicles are in the US with the remainder in Canada and Mexico.) 

Elsewhere, the FTC announced that MAR and its subsidiary HOT have agreed to put in place an information security program to settle charges related to several data breaches (affecting 344 million customers) between 2014 and 2020.  Separately, MAR agreed to pay a $52 million penalty to 49 states and the District of Columbia over the same issue.  Later, GSK has settled 80,000 Zantac cancer-related lawsuits for $2.2 billion.  The settlement, reached with 10 class-action law firms represent 93% of the company’s pending Zantac suits.  GSK also announced it would pay $70 million to settle a related whistleblower lawsuit.  At the same time, SMNEY (Siemens Energy) filed a lawsuit against Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum trying to recover about $200 million from a promissory note that is in default.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday evening Hurricane Milton came ashore as a Category 3 storm, making landfall just south of Tampa Bay in Bradenton to Sarasota, FL. As of this morning, millions of residents and an unknown number of businesses are without power.  However, the worst is past as the storm crossed the peninsula and headed back out to sea after crossing Florida.  Ahead of the storm, the disgraced ex-President and MAGA minions continue to spread lies, distortions, and misinformation related to FEMA, responses, conspiracy theory-based motives, available money, and everything else.  It got so bad that even some GOP members have broken ranks to try to correct the lies and limit the damage. Elsewhere, in China, President Xi Jinping seems to have gotten the message after two days of fierce selling in Chinese markets. The stimulus package announced Monday fell flat as it came in 1/15^th of what had been expected.  So, the Chinese government announced it will hold a briefing Saturday on fiscal policy that is intended to buttress growth.

In Middle East news, Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued Wednesday.  Israel sent thousands of additional ground troops into Lebanon during the day. In addition, Israeli air strikes in a Gaza refugee camp killed dozens. At the same time, the first Israeli civilian deaths (two of them) were reported in Northern Israel after 90+ (per BBC, I’ve seen other numbers) retaliatory Hezbollah rockets were fired into that area.  At the political level, Israeli PM Netanyahu got the phone call he had demanded with President Biden (before allowing his rival to travel to the US), who told him to limit civilian casualties.  This call will likely clear the way for Netanyahu’s (rival and) Defense Minister Gallant to travel to the US to discuss the Israeli retaliation for last week’s 180-missile Iran strike.  Meanwhile, Israel again warned Lebanon they will “fall into the abyss of a long war that will bring destruction and suffering similar to what we see in Gaza,” implying they could avoid this fate by getting rid of Hezbollah.  (Presumably, this PR stunt would mean he wants the Christian, Druze, and Sunni Lebanese to start a Lebanese civil war and take over from Israel…in the middle of the Israeli invasion and bombing campaign. That seems a lot like demanding a unicorn. It also sounds like “Don’t make me hurt you…see what you made me do.”)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green as the Chinese promise of a Saturday meeting to explain fiscal policy and how it will prop up their economy stopped the bleeding in Chinese markets.  Shenzhen (-0.82%) was the only significant loser in the region while Hong Kong (+2.98%) and Shanghai (+1.32%) led the gains.  In Europe, the bourses lean toward the red side at midday with 11 of 14 exchanges below break-even.  The CAC (-0.22%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.25%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a slightly red star to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.092% and Oil (WTI) has popped 1.3% to $74.18 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, and September CPI, (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams (11 a.m.). The no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to DAL and DPZ. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, SVNDY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, DAL reported missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets are just on the red side of flat at this point of the premarket. SPY opened the early session flat and has traded slightly lower. QQQ opened premarket lower and traded down before recovering. Meanwhile, DIA gapped a bit lower and has put in a white candle in the early session to also recover. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. (SPY and DIA both printed new all-time high closes again Wednesday.) With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator remains in the mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (+1.15%) leads the three gainers while AAPL (-0.33%) is at the head of those headed lower. The biggest dog, NVDA (-0.14%) is barely ahead of TSLA in terms of the dollar-volume traded. This is abnormal (at least for the last year or so) and not the common state of recent bullish moves by the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a drift higher across the market after the opening bell.  SPY gapped up 0.47%, DIA gapped up 0.21%, and QQQ gapped up 0.52%. From there, both SPY and QQQ followed-through with a rally that lasted until 10:50 a.m.  Then, those two major index ETFs ground sideways in a small range until 1 p.m. when a new steady rally kicked in.  For its part, after the open, DIA immediately recrossed the gap and chopped sideways for the first hour. Then, it drifted slowly higher the rest of the day.  This was broker by slight profit-taking the last minutes of the day in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us a large white-bodied candle in the SPY that recrossed above its T-line (8ema) and closed while testing its short-term downtrend line. (SPY also missed another all-time high close by just 65 cents.)  At the same time, QQQ printed a large, white-bodied candle that crossed back above its T-line as well as its short-term downtrend line.  For its part, DIA was the weakest of the three, giving us a white-body Spinning Top Bull Harami type candle that closed right at a retest of its T-line but did not get up to retest the short-term downtrend line.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.    

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.31%) far out in front (by 0.68%) of the rest of the group. On the other side, Energy (-2.30%) was by far the biggest mover and biggest loser. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.95%, DIA gained 0.28%, and QQQ gained 1.49%. VXX fell 4.04% to close at 55.39 and T2122 climbed to the other side of its mid-range at 51.26.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 4.018% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.24%, ostensibly on somewhat reduced Middle East war fears, to close at $73.89 per barrel.  So, while there was no major driver for the rally Tuesday, Fed members generally leaning toward quarter-point cuts and a “no news is good news” feeling surrounding expansion of the conflicts (i.e. the next Israeli attack on Iran and perhaps Yemen also) led the Bulls to a modest gap up and then a drift higher.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to August Exports, which were up to $271.80 billion (compared to the July value of $266.60 billion).  On the opposite side, August Imports were down a bit to $342.20 billion (versus July’s $345.40 billion reading).  This resulted in an August Trade Balance of $70.40 billion (compared to a forecasted -$70.10 billion but down from July’s -$78.90 billion).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Stocks came in with a much bigger inventory build than anticipated at +10.900 million barrels (versus a forecasted +1.950 million barrels and the previous week’s 1.458-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler made a case for more rate cuts. She said she had agreed with the half percent cut in September and feels more should come.  Kugler said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.”  She continued, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Meanwhile, NY Fed President Williams indicated the Fed was “well positioned” and said he supported quarter-point cuts moving forward, saying that the FOMC Dot Plot (which calls for two quarter-point cuts by year end) is a “very good base case.”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said, “The labor market … is certainly slowed down, but is not slow.”  However, Bostic also said, “We have to get it back to that 2% target,” … “(Referring to inflation) It’s too high … That’s still quite a ways to go and I want people to understand that I’m still laser-focused on the inflation target.” 

At the same time, Boston Fed President Collins indicated there are more cuts to come.  She said, “Further adjustments of policy will likely be needed.”  She continued, “I will stress that policy is not on a pre-set path and will remain carefully data dependent, adjusting as the economy evolves.”  Collins also said, “It will be important to preserve the currently healthy labor market conditions,” noting that it would “require economic activity continuing to grow close to trend, which is my baseline outlook.”  Finally, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson told a Davidson College event, “The FOMC has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal.”  He continued, “To maintain the strength of the labor market, my FOMC colleagues and I recalibrated our policy stance last month.”  In addition, Jefferson said, “Economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. Inflation has eased substantially. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.”  On inflation, he said, “I expect that we will continue to make progress toward that goal.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, NVDA announce that Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn is building the largest production facility in the world in Mexico to assemble NVDA’s next generation GB200 superchips. At the same time, a regulatory filing shows that BRKB had sold more of its BAC shares, with total proceeds of its reduction now exceeding $10 billion.  However, BRKB still owns 10.1% of BAC shares.  Later, HON announced it will spin off its advanced materials unit via IPO.  BCS values that division at $11 billion.  At the same time, IT industry publication The Information reported that OpenAI is moving away from a MSFT datacenter focus in a bid for more independence as a way to get closer to ORCL who has its own datacenter unit. Later, BA announced it had delivered 33 jets in September, down from 40 in August, but up six from August 2023.  The company noted the impact of the mid-September strike of 33k Pacific Northwest BA workers. At the same time, AWK announced it had disconnected its computers following a “cybersecurity incident.”  The water utility said it had discovered unauthorized activity in its network on October 3.

Elsewhere, LYFT announced it is rolling out a number of improvements aimed at attracting more drivers.  Later, Reuters reported that GS has taken derivative positions equal to a 6.7% stake in UNCFF as of September 30.  Later, German company FMS said Tuesday it was working with the US FDA and HHS to boost production at its NC plant after direct competitor BAX suffered hurricane damage last week.  (Both companies are leaders in the IV solutions business.)  At the same time, descendants of the founders of PG lost a shareholder vote to oust company CEO Moeller and members of the board environmental sustainability committee.  After the close, S&P placed BA on a rating of “credit watch negative” as the plane maker’s strike drags on.  At the same time, Reuters reported BA is weighing options to raise cash by issuing new stock or stock-like securities.  Sources told Reuters the company hopes to raise $10 billion to assuage credit agency concerns.  Later, Unifor (the Canadian version of UAW) said it had started negotiations with CP.  At the same time, WOPEY announce it had completed the $1.2 billion acquisition of TELL.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US Dept. of Justice will outline the actions GOOGL could take to restore competition in online search following an August court finding that the company is an illegal monopoly.  (This action plan may include the breakup of the company.)  At the same time, a Paris-based arbitrator ruled in favor of BP and prohibiting KOS from selling LNG from its Senegal project to other parties.  After the close, C filed a motion asking a US District Court to dismiss a suit filed by NY Attorney General James for lax security and failing to reimburse customers who fall victim to online scammers due to company deficiencies.  At the same time, the FAA issued a safety alert over BA 737 jet rudder problems, warning that the rudder could become jammed or only operate in a limited manner.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook said that US electrical power demand will reach a record 4,093 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 and then another record of 4,163 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025.  (For reference, US demand was 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023.)  This breaks down into forecasts of 1,503 billion kWh for residential use, 1,412 billion kWH for commercial use, and 1,033 billion kWh for industrial user.  Elsewhere, the ports of Tampa and Sarasota closed Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Milton. Meanwhile, major freight terminals in SC, including the large one at Charleston, began implementing restrictions. 

In China news, markets were disappointed late Tuesday when the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission announced $28 billion of additional spending (stimulus) would be pulled forward into Q4 from 2025.  Analysts had expected the package to be a staggering $420 billion.

In Middle East news, Israeli PM Netanyahu barred his Defense Minister (Gallant) from making a scheduled trip to the US.  This trip was supposed to focus on coordination between Israel and the US related to the retaliatory strike on Iran.  Netanyahu has twice tried to fire Gallant in the last year.  So, tension between the two is fierce.  Still, r, there may be other political angles involved.  For example, Reuters reports Netanyahu is demanding a phone call from President Biden prior to sending his defense minister to the US.  (Perhaps as a vain show that he is the top dog and must be kowtowed to before actual work gets done.)  In addition, Netanyahu is also demanding that the War Cabinet approves his attack plans prior to the trip taking place.  (Again, so he gets his way and perhaps to prevent US input into the plan.)  There is also significant possibility that Netanyahu has US political motives.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China really pushing to the downside over disappointment about the stimulus details announced Tuesday night.  Shenzhen (-8.15%), Shanghai (-6.62%), and Hong Kong (-1.38%) were the big losers.  On the other side, New Zealand (+1.75%) and Japan (+0.87%) were the winners.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed but lean toward the green side with nine of the 14 exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.28%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTES (+0.29%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, the market is just on the red side of flat as of 7:30 a.m.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.02% and Oil (WTI) is off another 0.58% to $73.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and September FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.). However, we also hear from Fed members Bostic (8 a.m.), Williams (11 a.m.) and Daly 6 p.m.). The no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to HELE. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

With that background, markets look nearly flat at this point of the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks to recover almost all of the gap at this point. SPY and QQQ remains above their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has still not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. (SPY missed a new all-time high close Tuesday by 0.10%). With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split this morning with five on each side of break-even. The biggest dog, NVDA (+1.26%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, GOOGL (-0.96%) is the laggard of the group on that DOJ action plan report. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (-0.09%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down, ground sideways, sold off hard, and then ground sideways again on Monday.  SPY gapped down 0.28%, DIA gapped down 0.30%, and QQQ gapped down 0.41%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways not far from the open level for a while.  SPY and DIA started their next leg, a sharp selloff at about 11:30 a.m.  For its part, QQQ kept chopping sideways until 2 p.m. before it too sold off even faster. All three reached the lows of the day at about 3 p.m. before drifting sideways with a modest bullish trend.  This action gave us a black-body candle after an indecisive candle, which crossed back below its T-line (8ema).  All three also have wicks on both end of the candles.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.   

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.91%) way out front (by almost three-quarters of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+0.37%) held up almost a half percent better than any other sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.90%, DIA lost 0.90%, and QQQ lost 1.07%. VXX spiked 8.91% to close at 57.72 and T2122 dropped to the bottom side of its mid-range at 44.66.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields popped up over 4% to close at 4.02% while Oil (WTI) spiked another 3.98% on Middle East fears to close at $77.33 per barrel.  (So, WTI has spiked 14.3% over 7 trading days on Israeli versus the region fears.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit which came in at $9.93 billion (compared to a forecast of $11.80 billion and hugely below July’s $26.63 billion reading).  On one hand, this means US consumers are likely in better shape, having less installment debt. However, it also means consumers were not out spending, which could indicate lower consumer confidence.  Either way, it should be read as bearish for the US Dollar.  (And things that are bearish for the Dollar are, by definition, bullish for commodity prices.)  Still, it is worth noting that Consumer Credit figures have always been subject to sizable revisions due to a lack of reporting uniformity or requirements.

In Fed news, on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari seemed to say the same thing Chicago Fed President Goolsbee had said on Friday. Namely, the Fed liked the strong September Labor report.  Kashkari said, “It looks like it is still a strong labor market…it’s really good news as we want to keep a strong labor market.” He went on to say, “The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher unemployment.”  … “So that’s a really good fact that the job market has stayed strong while inflation has come down.”  Then early Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler said she had supported the half-percent rate cut in September.  She said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.” She did go on to note the better-than-expected Payrolls report from Friday and said she now supports a “balanced approach” to future cuts, saying, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams had an interview with the Financial Times in London.  Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is really well positioned to both hopefully keep maintaining the strength that we have in the economy and the labor market, but also continuing to see that inflation comes back to 2%.” He defended the larger half-percent first cut, saying it was “right in September and right today.” Williams went on to say that the Fed’s Dot Plot (which shows two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year) is a “very good base case.”

In stock news, on Monday, APD surged on reports that activist investor Mantle Ridge had taken a more than $1 billion position.  This set off a chain reaction, including two analyst upgrades.  (APD ended the day up 9.52% after a 7% gap higher at the open.)  At the same time, SRRK announced positive results from its Phase 3 clinical trial for its apitegromab treatment for muscular atrophy. (SRRK gapped up 254% and closed out the day at +361.99%.)  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that UL will invest more than $165 million to improve its European supply chain.  In addition, UL sources said the company’s European homecare unit will increase R&D and promotion spending by 40% in 2025. (No dollar figure was given.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that GOOGL’s share of the $300 billion search market is under pressure from AI rivals and other platforms like TikTok offering native Internet search functions.  WSJ reported that GOOGL’s share of that market is expected to end the year at below 50% for the first time in more than a decade. 

Meanwhile, AMZN’s share of that market is expected to reach 22.3% this year.  Later, GM announced it had restarted production at assembly plants following the hurricane-related supplier shortages.  At the same time, CVX announced it is selling its Athabasca oil sands and Duvernay shale assets to CNQ for $6.5 billion (all cash).  CVX expects the deal to close Dec. 6.  (Those two resources produced 84k barrels of oil per day in 2023.)  Later, EQNR announced it had bought a 9.8% stake in Danish offshore wind farm developer ORSTED for $2.5 billion. At the same time, Reuters reported that activist investor Starboard Value had bought about a $1 billion stake in PFE.  (PFE gapped higher on the news and closed near the opening level, up 2.17%.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by UBER and LYFT, which were seeking to avoid lawsuits from the state of CA on behalf of drivers.  (The drivers had been forced to sign agreements to keep legal disputes in arbitration rather than court.)  Later, a Seattle-based US District Judge unsealed his Sept. 30 ruling that the FTC case against AMZN for antitrust violations will proceed to trial.  (It is worth noting that a few of the co-plaintiff states, namely NJ, PA, MD, and OK, had their claims dismissed.)  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $965 million in arms to Romania and Italy.  RTX is the maker of the $285 million of arms sold to Romania while BAESY produced the $680 million sold to Italy. Later, a US District judge ruled that GOOGL must offer alternatives to its Google Play store for downloading and paying for apps on Android phones on antitrust grounds.  (The order restricts GOOGL from paying phone makers to preinstall the Google Play store or from sharing Play store revenue with other app distributors.) For its part, GOOGL immediately vowed to appeal the decision.  

Elsewhere, STLA filed eight additional lawsuits against the UAW union, alleging the union violated its labor contract by threatening to strike over the company’s delaying of investments it promised in the contract. Later, a group representing drug compounders sued the FDA over its decision to remove LLY’s bestselling weight-loss and diabetes drug from the “shortage list” last week. Thereby hurting drug compounder’s ability to sell their own version of the drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. The suit alleges that those drugs are still in short supply.  (If left on the list, it would require rationing of the drugs by LLY to any given buyer and give generic compounders a leg-up since they are not bound by the list rules.)  Finally, Mexico’s antitrust regulator made a preliminary finding Monday saying that GPAGP (tortilla-maker Gruma) holds unacceptable price-fixing power in the corn tortilla market in Mexico.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the CBOE announced it will list “hedged ADRs” that Us investors can use to buy foreign-listed stocks while limiting impacts from any currency fluctuations. Initially, these will include ADRhedged offerings for AZN, HSBC, and SHEL.  However, 14 other hedgedADR offerings will follow quickly.  Elsewhere, Hurricane Milton quickly went from Category 3 to Category 5 Monday.  This caused at least one oil and gas platform (owned by CVX) to shutdown.  Meanwhile, some FL ports have also begun restricting navigation or planning for Tuesday closure.

In Middle East news, Yemen’s Houthi rebels got in on the Middle East fighting again on Monday.  The Houthi claim to have fired two missiles at Jaffa, Israel.  (The IDF claimed to have shot down one of the two.)  Meanwhile, the Israeli bombing campaign in Beirut and Southern Lebanon as well as the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon continued. For his part, Israeli PM Netanyahu said they were fighting a “war of resurrection” and they are in the process of changing the security reality of the region and their attacks will not stop until all their goals are achieved.  Perhaps in response, French President Macron called on an arms embargo of Israel in the face of 42k Palestinians and more than 2,000 Lebanese killed in Israeli actions over the last year. With this as the backdrop, oil markets continue to reflect big fear over the threatened, and likely coming, Israeli retaliation to Iran’s recent 180 missile barrage.  (Analysts are speculating Israel will attack Iran’s oil infrastructure to damage its economic output and cause maximum pain to domestic.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed as China resumed trading after a week-long national holiday.  Mainland China remained “crazy strong” as they were right before their break with Shenzhen (+9.17%) and Shanghai (+4.59%) by far the biggest gainers.  On the other side, Hong Kong (-9.41%) and Japan (-1.00%) stood out among losers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see red across the board at 7:15 a.m.  The CAC (-0.64%), DAX (-0.22%), and FTSE (-1.15%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade on Chinese responses to the EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are essentially flat from the Monday close at 4.024% and Oil (WTI) is actually down 1.58% to $75.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August Exports, August Imports, and August Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, PEP reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, PEP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  PEP also cut its full-year forecast, citing weakness in US snack sales and the repercussions from its Quaker Foods recalls in North America.

With that background, markets look modestly bullish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session roughly flat, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks at this point. SPY and QQQ have crossed back above in a retest of their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+2.06%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, INTC (-0.40%) is the laggard among that group. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (+1.14%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw three moves by the market.  A gap higher, fading of the gap, and a long, protracted rally.  SPY gapped up 0.81%, DIA gapped up 0.58%, and QQQ gapped up 1.21%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off for more than an hour with SPY and QQQ not quite recrossing the gap, but DIA crossing all the way back below its prior close.  However, shortly after 10:30 a.m., all three began a slow, steady rally that lasted right into the last five minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive but bullish candles in all three.  SPY and QQQ both printed long-legged Doji type candles that gapped up through and retested from above (passing that test) their T-line (8ema).  At the same time, DIA gapped up through its T-line, retested its T-line from above, and printed a white-bodied Hanging Man type candle that also printed a new all-time high close.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+1.72%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Utilities (+0.23%) was the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.82%, and QQQ gained 1.19%. VXX fell 3.79% to close at 53.00 and T2122 popped up to just outside of its overbought territory to the top of its mid-range at 78.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields spiked to close at 3.969% while Oil (WTI) rose another 1.19% on Middle East fears to close at $74.60 per barrel.  So, the end of the US port strike and great September jobs data showing the economy isn’t falling off a cliff led to a gap higher. At that point the profit-takers ran for an hour.  However, the bulls stepped in to buy the dip and keep slowly buying all day long.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings (Month-on-Month), which came in down but better than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but down from August’s +0.5% reading).  On an annualized basis, Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings were up to +4.0% (versus the +3.8% forecast and August’s annual +3.9% number).  At the same time, September Nonfarm Payrolls were much stronger than anticipated at +254k (compared to +147k forecast and +159k Aug. value).  (It is worth noting that there were also upward revisions to summer payrolls numbers.)  On the private side, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also much stronger than predicted at +223k (versus a +125k forecast and August’s +114k number).  Meanwhile, the September Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (compared to a forecast and August reading of 62.7%).  Taken together, this gave us a September Unemployment Rate that fell to 4.1% (versus a forecast and August value of 62.7%).  So, the data showed us that the economy remains strong on the jobs side with growing earnings even as other data has shown inflation falling.  That’s as close to a soft landing (the so-called golden path) as you can get. However, the Bears and folks who think they know better than the Fed, saw the data as an omen of either no rate cut in November or at the very least “disappointing the market” with a lesser cut than was expected.  (That latter point overlooks that Fed members, including Fed Chair Powell, all but said were only getting a quarter-point cut in November.)

In Fed news, on Friday morning, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told Bloomberg the US jobs report was “superb.”  Goolsbee said, “You really couldn’t ask realistically for a better report for the economy, coupled with finding out that the (East Coast and Gulf Coast) port strike is not going to be an extended matter … those are two pieces of very good news for the economy.”  He continued, “If we get more reports like this, I’m going to feel a lot more confident that we are in fact settling in at full employment.”  Goolsbee went on to say there are even some signs that inflation will go lower than the FOMC’s 2% target. He went on to say that despite the strong jobs report, the Fed Funds rate is still far above what most FOMC members see as the eventual “settling point” and that it is appropriate for the Fed to bring the rate down “a lot” over the next 12-18 months.

In stock news, on Friday, rumors spread that APO is in advanced talks to acquire B for $45 per share.  (B gapped higher and closed up 12.98% at $45.26 on the news.) Later, TELL announced that shareholders have approved the $1.2 billion acquisition of WOPEY (Australian energy producer Woodside Energy Group).  At the same time, the BA and LMT joint venture (United Launch Alliance) announced it had successfully launched a second mission. (This is another step toward Dept. of Defense certification, which is required prior to carrying commercial contracts for national security payloads.)  Later, META announce two new services aimed at bringing in more young adult users.  The new “Local” and “Explore” tabs are currently being tested in various cities around the US.  At the same time, GM announced it had halted production at two plants (an SUV assembly plant and a truck assembly plant) due to the impact of Hurricane Helen on parts suppliers.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that GOOGL is experimenting with “verified” check marks in search results. (There is no word on whether or no GOOGL intends to monetize such a feature the way Elon Musk did with the former Twitter.)  At the same time, UAW union workers at STLA’s Los Angeles parts distribution center voted in favor of strike unless the carmaker settled grievances related to company failures to make product and investments as promised in the most recent national contract with STLA.  Later, JNJ announced it will discontinue a mid-stage trial of its experimental pill for the prevention of dengue fever.  The company said this came after reprioritization of its R&D portfolio.  At the same time, Reuters exclusively reported that RIO is in talks to acquire lithium miner ALTM.  If the deal were closed, it would make RIO the third-largest producer of lithium in the world.  (Sources tell Reuters the deal would value ALTM at between $4 billion and $6 billion.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, Reuters reported TMO repeatedly broke FDA contamination rules at its plant that manufactures infant formula and RSV drugs.  The report cited documents from US FDA inspections.  (TMO makes RSV drugs for SNY and infant formula on behalf of AZN.)  At the same time, the NHTSA announced it has opened a probe into 260k F crossover SUVs over losses of braking due to a brake hose defect.  Later, COIN announced it will delist certain stablecoins in the European Economic Area by year end.  This move was in response to the EU’s landmark crypto regulatory framework which will be fully implemented by December.

Elsewhere, the EU voted to move ahead with tariffs (of up to 45%) on Chinese EVs. The contentious vote passed 10 to 5 with 12 abstentions.  Later, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal from SWBI (Smith & Wesson) to a $10 billion lawsuit brought by the Mexican government. The suit alleges the company and Interstate Arms Company aided and abetted gun trafficking.  At the same time, STLA sued the UAW union over strike threats stemming from the company’s plans to delay investments promise in the 2023 labor contract.  After the close, the FDA placed a lupus treatment from KZR on hold following the death of four patients, which showed common symptoms and three deaths came soon after administration of the experimental drug.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday night, the US port strike ended in a tentative deal over wages and benefits.  (The automation negotiations will continue with no further strike until January.)  Then Friday, Longshoreman resumed work at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.  This means the port shutdown lasted three days and typically it will take nine days (three days per day of shutdown) to fully recover cargo backlogs.  In France, the European Commission approved funds for the removal of 4% of the grape vines in that country.  Back in the US, estimates now indicate that economic damage from Hurricane Helene will reach $250 billion. However, the insurance industry says that only about $5 billion of that will be covered by policies.  As an immediate response is continuing, the disgraced ex-President and his conspiracy theorist minions (like Elon Musk) continue to sew doubt and deter people from using resources available to them by continually spreading lies, amplifying completely unfounded rumors, and distortions for their political gain.

In Fed prediction news, following Friday’s strong September jobs report, there was a huge shift in the implied probabilities of a November Fed rate cut.  Fed Funds Futures trades now bake in a 97.4% probability of a quarter-point cut at the November meeting with 2.6% betting on no change in rates then.  One week prior, 46.7% were expecting a half percent rate cut and 53.3% of trades expected a quarter point cut.  There were no trades expecting no rate change one week ago.

In Middle East news, Israel continued heavy airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon over the weekend.  (The AP reported more than 30 strikes in Beirut alone on Sunday evening.) The Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon also continued. Reports indicate over 100 Lebanese killed and an unknown number wounded over the weekend alone. One-third of the Lebanese population are now refugees.  Israel confirmed 11 of the IDF ground forces have also been killed. This all comes as it appears Israel is preparing a retaliatory strike on Iran over the 180 missiles that country fired at/toward Israel last week.  From an oil market perspective, the majority of oil flows that has been disrupted or are threatened would go to China. However, if China can’t buy from Iran or the rest of the Gulf can’t ship to China due to war, it will end up buying from other sources.  This will allow US and other producers to sell at a premium.  WTI is up 10% in the last 10 days as of Sunday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with Japan (+1.80%), Taiwan (+1.79%), and South Korea (+1.58%) pacing the gains.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed at midday.  The CAC (+0.18%), DAX (-0.24%), and FTSE (+0.46%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.62% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have spiked again to 4.002% and Oil (WTI) jumped another 2.5% on Israeli fears (continued bombing and invasion with threat of attack on Iran) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit (3 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (1:50 p.m.) and Bostic (6 p.m.). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get August Exports, August Imports, August Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Stocks report.  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PEP reports. On Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

With that background, markets look bearish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down to start the early session and have traded lower to retest their T-line (8ema) from above. However, all three are now trading above their T-line (8ema) at the moment. So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range (although just outside of overbought territory. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. However, the Bears have a little more slack and the Middle East situation in their corner. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are modestly in the red. AMZN (-1.71%) leads the losses while AMD (+0.49%) is holding up far better than the others. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.48%) has traded only 1.5 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.46%). This is typically a factor of three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a modestly lower open and Bearish morning.  SPY opened 0.09% lower, DIA opened down 0.17%, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. At that point, the Bears were in-charge across all three major index ETFs, driving a sharp selloff that reached the lows of the day at 10:15 a.m. in DIA and 11:20 a.m. in the SPY and QQQ.  From there, all three rode a slightly bullish roller coaster sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles with significant lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  Both of them crossed back below their T-line (8ema) and even retested (and passed the test) their 17ema. Meanwhile, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top with most of its wick on the bottom side of the candle.  It too retested its 8ema, but unlike the others, it stayed above its T-line.  This happened on average volume in the SPY and QQQ but above average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were red with Technology (-1.71%) WAY out in front (by nine-tenths of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+2.02%) was the biggest mover and outperformed the other sectors by more than 1.5%.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.88%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 1.39%. VXX spiked 7.72% to close at 53.43 and T2122 dropped back to the middle of its mid-range at 54.67.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.735% while Oil (WTI) spiked on Middle East fears to close at $70.62 per barrel.  So, for the most part, the Bears ruled the morning (mostly on fears over the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory attack over recent Israeli assassinations conducted in Iran).

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included September S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which was down but better than expected at 47.3 (compared to a forecast of 47.0 and an August reading of 47.9).  Later August Construction Spending was up but worse than expected at -0.1% month-on-month (versus a +0.2% forecast and the July -0.5% value).  At the same time, September ISM Mfg. PMI was flat, which was not as strong as predicted at 47.2 (compared to a 47.6 forecast and in-line with the August 47.2 reading).  On the jobs side, Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment Index was down to 43.9 (versus a 47.0 forecast and a 46.0 August value).  Related to costs, September’s ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index was significantly lower at 48.3 (compared to a 53.5 forecast and a 54.0 August reading).  Meanwhile, August JOLTs Job Openings were up at 8.040 million (versus a 7.640 million forecast and a 7.711 million July number).  Later, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks were down a little less than anticipated at -1.458 million barrels (compared to the forecast calling for a 2.100-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s -4.339 million barrels). 

After the close, CALM and LW reported beats on both the earnings and revenue lines.  At the same time, NKE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, SLTA announced an extension of their halt in production of the Fiat 500e until at least November 1.  (The halt had initially been planned to end Oct. 11, but was extended three weeks amid slow electric vehicle sales.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that sources tell it that AAPL may need to turn back to China to supply iPhone components after a fire destroyed at Tata Group’s Hosur Indian iPhone component plant.  The weekend fire has caused what is being called “an indefinite production halt.”  Later, EQIX announced it has entered into a $15 billion joint-venture with the Singapore sovereign wealth fund and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to build a US data center. (The data center is expected to eventually scale to use 1.5 gigawatts of power.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that BA is looking to raise $10 billion by selling new shares.  Later, MSFT announced it has begun rolling out updates to its consumer Copilot software, giving it an AI assistant and a “more amiable” voice.  At the same time, GM reported that its Q3 new vehicle sales fell 2.2% due to fewer sales days in the quarter and lower consumer spending.  TM reported an 8% decrease for the quarter.  (F and STLA have yet to announce sales.) 

Meanwhile, CVS said it would be laying off 2,900 employees (1% of workforce) as part of a cost-cutting plan. The cuts will primarily be at corporate headquarters in RI.  Later, as with most competent companies, TM announced it had built extra inventory of vehicles and parts ahead of the US port strikes.  At the same time, SCHW announced that its long-time CEO Bettinger will retire on January 1, after 16 years at the helm.  He will be replaced current company President Wurster.  Later, CI, CVS, HUM, CNC, and UNH unveiled their 2025 Medicare Advantage plans.  The companies told Reuters that 83% of enrollees will have access to a $0 monthly premium plan.  At the same time, BRKB announced it had purchase full control of its Energy unit, buying the remaining 8% of stock for $2.37 billion. Later, JNJ announced it will invest more than $2 billion in a new manufacturing facility in NC for the production of biologic drugs and therapies. At the same time, CNBC reported that 500 SBUX locations have voted to unionize as talks between the union and company continue.  (The Starbucks Workers United union now represents more than 11k SBUX employees.) After the close, Bloomberg reported AAPL will launch upgrades to iPhone SE and iPad Air product lines in early 2025. At the same time, NKE withdrew its annual forecast and postponed its planned investor day when it reported earnings.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the CFTC announced BCS agreed to pay $4 million to settle civil charges that it violated US law and CFTC rules requiring accurate and timely reporting on swap transactions.  (BCS failed to report 5 million such swap transactions from 2018 to 2023.)  Later, a US district judge dismissed a shareholder suit against PTON.  The suit had alleged PTON defrauded shareholders by concealing how demand for its exercise machines had fallen as COVID vaccines became available and people were allowed to return to public life.  Later, the NHTSA announced that owners of 154k Jeep hybrid plug-ins should park the vehicle outside and away from buildings or other vehicles until recall repairs are completed. 

At the same time, the Fed announced it had terminated a 2013 enforcement action filed against C related to money laundering. (The enforcement action did not carry a fine but required process and documentations changes.)  In 2023, C announced it planned to split the offending unit from the rest of the bank in the second half of 2024.  At the same time, the NRLB issued a complaint against AAPL for allegedly violating employees right to organize or advocate for better working conditions by maintaining unlawful workplace rules.  (Among the alleged infractions were confidentiality, non-disclose, non-compete, employee misconduct, and off-time social media policies.  Among the prohibited topics were pay, discrimination, and promotion standards.)

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday evening, the state of MI announced the schedule resulting from a summer major MI State Supreme Court decision that raises the state’s minimum wage by 20% to $12.48/hour at the end of February.  (The first increase will the to $10.56 on January 1 and then to $12.48 on February 21.  It will increase again to $14.97 in February 2028 and then be followed by annual inflation adjustments.)  The court decision ruled that after 280k MI voters signed petitions calling for a ballot issue on the state minimum wage, the GOP legislature passed changes in 2018 and then proceeded to illegally water down the increases to insignificant levels.

In Middle East news, Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon continued, even as the Lebanese army had fled southern Lebanon.  Reportedly, 60 Lebanese were killed and an unknown number wounded on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Iran chose to take a retaliatory action for last month’s Israeli assassination of Hamas’ top negotiator in Tehran.  Iran fired about 180 missiles toward Israel Tuesday. Many of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense and US Navy anti-missile systems. However, a few Iranian missiles and a lot of missile fragments did hit southern Israel.  No casualties were reported since Israel had plenty of time to move the public to bomb shelters.  (The closest Iranian hit seems to have been a missile that landed within six-tenths of a mile from Mossad headquarters.)  Israeli PM Netanyahu immediately vowed that “Iran will pay” for its attack.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Japan (-2.13%) was well out front followed by South Korea (-1.22%) and Malaysia (-1.03%) leading the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as 11 of the 14 bourses are modestly in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.12%), DAX (-0.59%), and FTSE (+0.18%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.38% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.756% and Oil (WTI) has spiked another 3.62% on Middle East fears to $72.35 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAG and RPM.  Then, after the close, LEVI reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In overnight news, a chlorine chemical cloud in Atlanta has triggered a new series of shelter-in-place orders for that major city.  This is the fallout of Sunday’s fire at the BioLab chemical plant in Conyers, GA (25 miles Southeast of Atlanta).  Multiple counties have had such shelter-in-place orders since the fire, but now the impact is being felt in a major urban population center.  Elsewhere, early this morning, LLY announced it will build a $4.5 billion research, development, and manufacturing facility located near Lebanon, IN.

So far this morning, RPM reported a miss on revenue while also beating on earnings.  However, CAG reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets look indecisively bearish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower and have printed mostly wick since that point. All three are now trading below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bearish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. However, the Bears have what momentum exists on the back of the Middle East situation and the US East and Gulf port strike. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are modestly in the red. AAPL (-0.58%) leads the losses while META (+0.18%) and NFLX (+0.12%) are holding up better than the others. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.35%) has traded only a little more than 2 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.31%). This is typically a factor of at least two to three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were flat most of the day with mid-afternoon volatility and a strong rally into the close.  SPY opened 0.16% lower, DIA opened down 0.10%, and QQQ gapped down 0.21%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in a tight range until 2 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off for 20 minutes, rallied back for 25 minutes, and then paused for 35 minutes.  Finally, the last 25 minutes of the day was a sharp rally into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with significant lower wicks.  SPY printed a Bullish Engulfing signal and closed at another all-time high close after retesting (and passing the test of) its T-line (8ema) earlier in the day.  DIA gave us a white-bodied Hammer that also retested its T-line and closed at another all-time high close.  Meanwhile, QQQ also retested (and passed the test of) its T-line while printing a white-bodied big-bodied Hammer type.  The happened on well-below-average volume in the QQQ, slightly below-average volume in SPY, and just above-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green again with Healthcare (+0.42%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Basic Materials (-0.57%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.53%) were the laggard sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.42%, DIA gained a slim 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.27%. VXX dropped 2.35% to end at 49.54 and T2122 fell back to the bottom half of its overbought territory at 83.21.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.785% while Oil (WTI) remained unchanged to close at $68.19 per barrel.  So, for the most part, the first 4.5 hours of the day were a boring market. Then Fed Chair Powell spoke. Initially, the market sold on Powell telling us that more, smaller cuts lay ahead.  (Coming into Powell’s speech, 53% of Fed Fund Futures bets expected a half-percent cut in November.  Afterward, only 36% expect the half-point cut.)  However, the Bulls stepped in to buy that dip. This may have been a reaction to Powell saying the economy was fine, or it may have been a month-end or quarter-end push.  Regardless of the cause, stocks rallied sharply the last 20 minutes with two of three major index ETFs closing at new all-time high closes.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Chicago PMI.  This came in better than expected at 46.6 (compared to a forecast and August value of 46.1). 

In Fed news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Reuters he was open to another half-percent cut in November if upcoming data shows job growth slowing.  Bostic said, “A surprise to the weak side …. would pull me much further into really needing another dramatic move.”  He continued, “If the story is that inflation is continuing its drop and the labor market is staying strong, I think we have the luxury of being a bit more patient with rate cuts.” … “If, on the other hand, the labor market comes in much weaker, I think that would add urgency to this (rate cutting cycle).”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (in an interview with Fox Business) was even more definite in saying he feels quarter-point cuts are the way to go.  Goolsbee said, (With regard to monetary policy) “This is a process, over a year or more, that we’re trying to get the rates down to normal.”  He continued regarding the pace of cuts, saying, “(The Fed Funds rate) has got to come down a lot more than 25 basis points over the next 12 months. It’s going to be a lot of cuts.”

However, the headline speaker Monday was Fed Chair Powell, who spoke to the National Assn. for Business Economics.  Powell said, “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance.”  He continued, “The path of future interest rates isn’t on any preset course. … It will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”  Related to current inflation, he said, “Disinflation has been broad based, and recent data indicate further progress toward a sustained return to 2 percent.” Regarding the strength of the economy in terms of Gross Domestic Income versus GDP, Powell said, “That’s been a downside risk that we’ve been monitoring … but there’s now no gap between the two. … That, I would say, removes a downside risk to the economy.”  Powell’s most widely reported remarks were “This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly. … We will do what it takes in terms of the speed with which we move.”  In discussion, Powell indicated that the FOMC’s base case is for two additional quarter-point cuts for the remainder of 2024.

In stock news, on Monday, STLA cut its 2024 profit forecast and warned it would burn through more cash that previously expected.  The company cited poor US sales and offering bigger discounts to revive US marketshare.  STLA said it now expects a negative cash flow of between $5.58 billion and $11.17 billion instead of positive cash flow.  At the same time, TPG announced it had acquired a minority stake in investment advisory Creative Planning for $2 billion.  Later, MMC announced it agreed to acquire private insurance brokerage McGriff Insurance Services for $7.75 billion.  At the same time, Reuters reported that PFE will sell 640 million shares in UK consumer healthcare company Haleon for about $3.25 billion. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that VZ had sold the right to lease, operate, and manage 6.339 mobile phone towers covering 50 states and Washington DC to Vertical Bridge.  The deal includes $2.8 billion in cash up front.  The company is expected to lease the towers back to VZ for 10 years with an option to extend up to 50 years.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that PEP is in advanced talks to buy private Siete Foods for more than $1 billion.  Later, the Teamster Union announced it had signed a tentative agreement with HTZ covering nearly 3k members.  (Union members had voted to strike if a deal was not reached Monday.)  At the same time, Reuters exclusively reported that CVS is considering strategic options including the break-up of the company.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Russia fined GOOGL $38k (which I have a feeling will cost GOOGL more than that just to pay that paltry amount) for not removing content Russia deems illegal.  Later, a trial against ABT, RBGPF (Reckitt Benckiser), and St. Louis Children’s Hospital began Monday with jury selection.  The companies are being sued over severe intestinal illness that the suit alleges a baby got from premature infant formula he was given after birth.  (There are nearly 1,000 similar cases pending nationwide.)  At the same time, Epic Games filed suit against AAPL and Korea’s Samsung, alleging the pair conspired to protect the Google Play Store from competition.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce unveiled a new rule that could make it easier to ship AI chips to data centers in the Middle East.  NVDA is the primary winner from the new rule, but AMD and to a lesser extent INTC could receive some benefit as well.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced GM will pay a $1.5 million fine for failing to disclose details of an October 2023 crash involving one of its Cruise self-driving taxis. 

Elsewhere, BMY won the dismissal of a $6.4 billion lawsuit brought by CELG shareholders who had claimed that by delaying federal approval of the cancer drug Breyanzi, BMY had been able to acquire CELG at an artificially low price.  At the same time, the FCC reached a $31.5 million settlement with TMUS over issued related to significant data breaches of TMUS systems over 3 years.  Later, SEC filings showed that XOM, CVX, and COP paid $42 billion to foreign governments last year for oil and gas extraction rights.  This was about eight times what they paid the US government in 2023.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 194k Jeep plug-in hybrids over fire risk following 13 fire reports.  Later, CA Governor Newsom vetoed an AI safety bill after strong opposition from GOOGL, META, MSFT and others.  (TSLA had been a proponent for the bill.)  At the same time, EBAY won the dismissal of a suit brought by the US Dept. of Justice.  The suit alleged EBAY violated environmental laws by allowing hundreds of thousands of polluting and toxic products to be shipped to the US.  The judge ruled Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects EBAY from any liability over user content and the company had not materially contributed to the products. 

Meanwhile, the FCC announced it is investigating VZ for a service outage that affected thousands of user and left some in “SOS mode.”  (There were over 105k new outage reports at the peak and 30k new outage reports at of 5 p.m. Eastern.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice and SEC announced TD will pay more than $20 million to settle charges of US Treasury market manipulations using “Spoof” orders.  Later a federal judge ruled AMGN must face a class-action suit trial for waiting too long to tell shareholders it may owe $10.7 billion in unpaid taxes due to underreporting income for six years.  At the same time, a federal just dismissed a suit against TSLA and its CEO Musk, that alleged the company defrauded then by overstating the effectiveness and safety of the company’s self-driving technology.  (Even though he and the company had clearly lied about that for years, the judge ruled the plaintiffs had not proven they had directly said this would boost the stock price.)  Later, WMT announced that Mexico’s antitrust regulator will rule on the company’s liability for antitrust pricing and terms imposed on distributors and suppliers in the next few days.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the Dept. of Energy bought 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for $68.50/barrel.  The oil will be delivered at a rate of 1.5 million barrels per month from February – May 2025. Elsewhere, analysts now estimate the financial cost of Hurricane Helene may be $160 billion (well above the $95 billion to $110 billion estimated prior to the storm).   Meanwhile, Libyan oil production is set to resume in days after a political deal approved the appointment of an interim Libyan Central Bank Governor.  (This comes after a month-long shutdown of Libyan oil production.)  Finally, the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike began at midnight.  (For reference, it typically takes three days to recover for each day of shutdown.)

In Middle East news, Israel began what it says is a “limited ground operation” invasion of Lebanon Monday evening.  The IDF said it has no plans for long-term occupation of Lebanon, but (as makes operational sense) gave no indication of goals or timeline.  At the same time, Israel also began bombing the southern side of Beirut.  This all comes after more than a million Lebanese have become refugees, 1,700 have been killed, and multiple thousands of casualties have been reported in the last two weeks.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green even as Chinese markets are closed the rest of the week for their national holiday.  Japan (+1.93%) and Thailand (+1.09%) led the gainers while Australia (-0.74%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see mostly green with only three of 14 bourses in the red at midday. The CAC (+0.02%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.46%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open.  DIA implies a -0.20% open, the SPY is implying a +0.01% open, and QQQ implies a +0.17% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.743% and Oil (WTI) is oddly (given the Israeli invasion of Lebanon) down 0.75% to $67.69 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes September S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), August Construction Spending, September ISM Mfg. PMI, Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment, September ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, and August JOLTs Job Openings (all at 10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (11 a.m. and 6:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AYI, MKC, PAYX, and UNFI.  However, after the close, CALM, LW, and NKE report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, CAG, RPM, and LEVI report.  On Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, AYI, MKC, and UNFI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, markets look indecisive so fat in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session flat and have printed mostly wick since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is still in the bottom of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have just a bit more slack to work with today if they can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green. GOOGL (+1.32%) leads the gainers while AAPL (-1.26%) paces the losses. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.24%) has traded only a little more than 1.5 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (+0.37%). This is typically a factor of at least two to three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service