Wednesday was a typical Fed Day.  Everybody seemed to be waiting on the FOMC.  The SPY gapped up 0.29%, DIA gapped up 0.27%, and QQQ gapped up 0.27%.  From there, SPY traded sideways in a tight range until 2 p.m.  Meanwhile, DIA drifted very, very slowly higher until 2 p.m.  QQQ took the opposite course selling off until 11:30 a.m. and then trading sideways back at Tuesday’s closing level until 2 p.m.  At 2 p.m., Mr. Market was disappointed by the Fed statement, jerking lower for 5 minutes only to recover over the next 30 minutes.  However, once Fed Chair Powell began speaking, it was “Katy bar the door” as all three major index ETFs sold off sharply and steadily right into the close.  This action gave us large black Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ.  The DIA printed a black-bodied candle with a large upper wick.  All three also failed a retest of their t-line (8ema).  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ with average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.40%) way out in front leading the rest lower.  Meanwhile, Communication Services (+0.27%) held up better than the other sectors.   At the same time, the SPY lost 0.92%, DIA lost 0.22%, and the tech-heavy QQQ lost 1.44%.  VXX gained 3.77% to close at 21.18 and T2122 fell only slightly and remains at the low end of the mid-range at 23.21.  10-year bond yields spiked up to 4.395% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.02% to end the day at $90.27 per barrel.  So, again it was a typical Fed Wednesday where we saw price largely drift sideways until 2 p.m., followed by a fast knee-jerk, slow recovery, and then another strong move.  Just don’t be surprised if there is another reaction at the open or early Thursday after Mr. Market has had a night to sleep on it and get his emotions in check. 

The major economic news reported Wednesday included EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories which saw a drawdown of 2.135 million barrels.  This was interestingly far less of a draw than the API reported Tuesday night and was just slightly less than the forecast of 2.200 million barrels.  However, it was down sharply compared to the prior week’s 3.954-million-barrel inventory build.  With that said, the big show Wednesday was the Fed.  As expected, the FOMC kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%.  The “Dot Plots” were also released showing the current Q3 Fed Funds Rate estimate is 5.6% (which is a bit odd since we are sitting well below that and there is not another FOMC meeting in Q3).  One year out, the Q3 projection is 5.1% (which is greatly increased from the prior prediction of 4.6%).  However, that implies two rate cuts between now and the end of 2024.  This is what really spooked markets as the prior plots implied four cuts next year.  Two years out, again we see a major revision upward in the forecast to 3.9% (up from 3.4%).  Three years out the Fed average forecast is for 2.9%, which is down from the previous 3.1%.  Then the Long-Term Fed Funds Rate Projection is 2.5%, which is unchanged from the previous forecast.  Also buried in the Fed report was a significant increase in the Fed expected GDP for 2023, up from 1.0% in June to now expected 2.1% growth this year.  They also expect far less unemployment than they previously did.  In June they expected unemployment to top out at 4.5% in 2024, now they see 4.1% as the terminal unemployment rate.  (We are currently at 3.8% unemployment.) 

The Fed statement still implied one more rate hike this year and stiffened the hawkish “higher for longer” stance.  Then during his press conference, Chair Powell said that a soft landing is not the base case.  He said, “No, I would not do that … I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome … I do think it’s possible.”  Still, regardless of his words, the data released absolutely screams “soft landing” with higher GDP estimates, reduced unemployment expectations, and projected rate cuts (new cycle) starting in a year or less.  So, the bottom line is that the Fed did exactly what was expected, holding rates steady.  They also reinforced what they said they were going to do…keep rates higher longer.  Finally, they told us they are very nearly done raising rates and see us having the softest of landings, just as we have seen in the economy.  (Yet the market took the news poorly because it was hoping for rate cuts to come early in 2024 and continue steadily that year.)

In stock news, UL has hired MS in a new effort to sell its Q-tips and other personal care brands.  At the same time, French supermarkets announced they would be pressing suppliers to cut prices by up to 5%.  Reuters reports this move is expanding in Europe and companies like the aforementioned UL, PEP, KO, and other food and consumer goods companies will face pricing pressure going forward.  Later, Reuters reported that a consortium including KKR and APO is looking to buy the GreenSky Lending unit from GS.  The transaction is now expected to be in the $500 million range, which is a significant haircut from the $2.4 billion GS paid to buy it in September 2021.  At the same time, QCOM announced it is now entering the WIFI Router market.  (It was already a major supplier to the companies in that market.)  In the announcement, QCOM said it has orders in place from CHTR for this new line of products. Elsewhere, BAC announced it is raising the company’s minimum wage to $23/hour effective in October, with a target of raising it to $25/hour by 2025.  (This was a $1/hour increase over the company’s current minimum of $22/hour.)  Later, AMZN announced it plans to hire 250k extra holiday workers for its distribution and delivery units.  By mid-afternoon, it was announced that WDC is considering a split (splitting its hard drive unit from its flash memory business) of the company based on calls from activist investors Elliott Investment Mgmt.  At the same time, it emerged that WDC is also in merger talks with the owners of Kioxia (formerly Toshiba’s flash memory division).

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a federal judge in New York rejected an NFLX dismissal motion and ordered the company to face a defamation lawsuit from a Manhattan prosecutor portrayed in one of their crime dramas.  Later, a federal court in TX dismissed the shareholder case against TSLA related to a toxic workplace causing financial harm to the plaintiffs.  However, it was dismissed for evidential deficiencies without prejudice, meaning the plaintiffs can amend the suit and resubmit it later. Later, Bloomberg reported that XOM is lobbying President Biden and other administration officials to allow hydrogen derived from natural gas to be eligible for environmental tax credits available under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.  (Those credits are currently reserved for solar, wind, battery minerals, and “pure” hydrogen projects.  Elsewhere, GE filed suit against a supplier (AOG Technics) who was implicated in a scandal over fake components and forged certifications identified by the EU Aviation Safety Agency.  At the same time, RYAAY (Ryanair) has been notified that Italy’s antitrust agency has opened an investigation of the company over potential abuse of a dominant market position.  Later, AZN was sued in the US by a former senior director who claimed the company had refused to pay $189k in owed bonuses and stock options because she worked from home more than two days per week.  In the “you can’t make this stuff up” department, attorneys who sued TSLA board members, forcing them to return $700 million in excess pay have now filed with the court seeking $229 million ($10,690/hour) in attorney fees.  After the close, AMZN said it would be dropping a planned new fee for merchants who do not use its shipping services in the face of an expected FTC lawsuit.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, Canadian Unifor union workers will vote on the tentative deal reached with F on Saturday.  Meanwhile, in the US, UAW strikes are expanding with 190 union workers going on strike against an MBGAF (Mercedes) supplier in AL.

After the close, KBH reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It also raised its forward guidance.  Meanwhile, FDX missed on revenue while beating quite significantly ($4.55/share actual vs. $3.70/share consensus estimate) on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board with only Thailand (+0.42%) staying in the green.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-1.75%), Japan (-1.37%), and Australia (-1.37%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday.  Only Greece (+0.11%) is in the green while the CAC (-1.56%), DAX (-1.20%), and FTSE (-0.71%) lead that region lower.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.52% open, the SPY is implying a -0.77% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking to 4.441% and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent to $89.08 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q2 Current Account, Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Existing Home Sales (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Thursday include DRI and FDS before the open.  Then, after the close, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, S&P US Mfg. PMI, S&P U Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled

The following long paragraph is about dysfunctional government.  Skip it if you prefer.  I feel this is important to the market because stock markets tend to go down in the face of dysfunctional government, including shutdowns, and the credit rating of the US is directly related to downgrades from rating agencies likely…which affects bonds and then markets as well.  At any rate, in the Senate Majority Leader Schumer had to use a fairly rare procedural maneuver Wednesday night to sidestep culture war obstructionist Senator Tuberville’s non-filibuster hold on government business.  (Tuberville did not fight Schumer’s move because the move relieved pressure he had been getting from colleagues in his own party while still allowing him to continue his farce blockage).  The move by Schumer let the Senate vote on the appointment of a new Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Air Force General Brown), which they confirmed by a vote of 83-11.  Two other high-profile positions (Commandant of the Marine Corps and Army Chief of Staff) are expected to be voted on today using the same procedural move, with similar results expected.  However, more than 300 other senior military officers (unit and base commanders in many cases) remain blocked (leaving their positions filled by “acting commanders” due to the anti-governance Senator. The Senate rules allow any single obstructionist Senator to halt governance for any even completely unrelated reason.  Meanwhile, in the House, after the close, Speaker McCarthy said he will try again today to pass the Defense Appropriations bill (which failed its vote on Tuesday).  It appears McCarthy thinks he has now placated the 5 extremists from his party who voted against the bill Tuesday.  (As opposed to compromising with the other party to gain a broad consensus, because party is more important than country.  Besides the job of Congress is not to pass laws in the interest of all the people, but instead to rule over the opposing party and take as much as you can from “their side” while blaming them for doing what you’re doing.)  The fear, of course, is that if those 5 were bought off, that in itself is a good incentive for another tiny group to bolt (or threaten to do so) in order to get their share of the appeasement. Another example of the tyranny of the minority. And with that taking place, there are eight business days left for the House to pass a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown (or, in a less likely scenario, pass 12 appropriations bills, get them through the Senate, reconcile the two versions, pass the revisions in both Houses and get President Biden’s signature). 

With that background, the premarket is telling us the rout is continuing with Bears on the warpath. All three of the major index ETFs gapped down to start the early session and have followed through with strong bearish moves. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and 50sma. So, for now, the short-term trend is clearly headed lower with a retest of the mid-to-late-August low in the cards for SPY today with DIA headed in that direction and QQQ probably still a day or so away from such a retest. In terms of extension, the premarket move has all three major index ETFs stretched below their T-line (although QQQ is clearly the most stretched). However, the T2122 indicator is still just in the lower side of its mid-range. So, it is not extremely clear whether we are stretched enough to see a reversal soon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, stocks gapped modestly lower at the open (down 0.21% in the SPY, down 0.21% in the DIA, and down 0.34% in the QQQ).  At that point, all three major index ETFs followed through to sell off sharply until 10:45 a.m.  However, then we saw some divergence as the two large-cap index ETFs continued in a much slower selloff until 12:50 p.m.  Meanwhile, the QQQ began to rally at 10:45 a.m. and kept it up until 2 p.m.  SPY and QQQ reached their high of the day at 2:45 p.m. while DIA did not quite make it up to the levels of the open.  The last 75 minutes of the day saw all three swing lower and then back higher. This action gave us a black-bodied, long-legged Doji in the SPY, a black-bodied, long-legged Doji in the DIA, and a white-bodied Spinning Top in the QQQ.  All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and 50sma. Perhaps more importantly, all three also dropped just below a potential support level. This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red.  Utilities (-0.59%), Energy (-0.58%), and Industrials (-0.52%) were out in front leading the market lower, as Communication Services (+0.26%) was the only sector to hang onto green territory.   At the same time, the SPY lost 0.21%, DIA lost 0.29%, and QQQ lost 0.21%.  VXX fell 0.49% lower to close at 20.41 and T2122 fell again but remained in the low end of the mid-range at 24.58.  10-year bond yields spiked again to close at 4.365% while Oil (WTI) fell slightly to end the day at $91.66 per barrel.  So, again it was a typical pre-Fed Tuesday where the price whipped back and forth but ended up not changing much.  Everyone is still just waiting on the Fed decision.  However, this time around, the entire market thinks (well 99.0% according to the Fed Futures) they already know the Fed decision.  So, if we are actually waiting on the Fed verbiage and tone of Fed Chair Powell’s statement.

The only major economic news reported Tuesday included Preliminary August Building Permits, which came in above expectations at 1.543 million (compared to a forecast of 1.440 million and a July reading of 1.443 million).  This amounted to a 6.9% increase over the prior month.  At the same time, August Housing Starts were lower than predicted at 1.283 million (versus a forecast of 1.440 million and a previous month 1.447 million).  This was the lowest level since June 2020 and that also amounted to an 11.3% decrease month-on-month.  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger drawdown than was anticipated at -5.250 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -2.667 million barrels and an increase of 1.174 million barrels last week).

In stock news, MS debuted an AI Investing assistant designed to help investment advisors sift through over 100,000 research reports.  At the same time, NIO announced it plans to sell $1 billion in senior convertible notes.  The market seems to believe most will be converted into shares, diluting existing stockholders.  As a result, NIO dropped more than 17% on the day.  At the other end of the financial strength spectrum, MSFT increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.75/share.  Elsewhere, on Tuesday, HBI announced it was exploring strategic alternatives for the company’s Champion brand.  Later, DIA announced that it expects to make $10 billion in profits from theme park operations up from $2.2 billion a decade ago. At the same time, DIS said it plans to invest $60 billion to expand its theme parks globally as well as to build a DIS brand cruise line.  (That is double what was spent on that business unit in the prior 10 years.)  Later TGT, announced they will hire 100,000 workers for the holiday season and will begin holiday promotions in October.  Reuters reported that the hacking group that breached MGM and before that CZR had also hacked 3 other clients of OKTA.  The article reported that the hackers gained access to MGM’s OKTA identity management account and used it to gain other credentials to further their attacks.  At the same time, INTC held an event where it highlighted that its upcoming new line of CPUs will allow consumers to run their own AI applications rather than buying those as a service from a cloud-computing company.  INTC did not explain what need or application would require on interest consumers in running their own AI models.  However, if they want to, INTC’s line of chips due out in December will be able to do so on the low end of that spectrum.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, in Europe, GOOGL made a last-ditch effort to overturn a $2.6 billion EU antitrust fine (imposed for abuses of its shopping service). The company told the 15-judge panel of Europe’s top court that the European Commission had failed to prove GOOGL’s actions were anti-competitive and anyway the fines themselves were abusive and undermined competition by hurting GOOGL.  Later, the IRS approved MULN’s “qualified manufacturer” status, meaning customers who purchase one of two MULN models will qualify for up to $7,500 in tax credits per cargo van bought.  Elsewhere, the SEC and Dept. of Justice have begun investigating whether CS misled investors about its financial health prior to its Swiss-state-backed rescue buyout by UBS.  Reuters reported the two agencies have requested documents from both CS and UBS as well as current and former directors.  At the same time, the CEO of CBOE resigned after a late-August outside investigation found he failed to disclose “personal relationships” with his colleagues.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Dept. of Justice is investigating perks TSLA CEO Musk has received from the company (including designing a proposed house for him).  The article claims employees were the source of the allegations, including the former CFO.  Meanwhile, LLY announced they are suing 10 medical spas across the US which LLY alleges are selling products claiming to contain the active ingredient in its Mounjaro diabetes drug (which is expected to be approved for weight-loss use later this year).  Later, a federal judge in NY ruled that DASH, GRUB, and UBER can sue New York City over its law capping how much they could charge restaurants for delivering meals.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, Reuters reported that UAW workers are bracing for more strikes as talks between the union and Big 3 automakers show no sign of significant progress.  However, in hopeful news, F announced late last night that it had reached a tentative deal with its Unifor Canadian auto workers.  The deal still must be ratified by union members and neither the company or the union released and contract details.  (Although it beggars belief that the Canadian and US unions don’t talk.  So, the reason for the obfuscation is not clear.)

So far this morning, GIS beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  This was a very modest upside surprise on modest 4% growth.  In other morning news, US mortgage demand increased despite interest rates rising.  The US average for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rose from 7.27% to 7.31%.  Despite this, refinancing applications jumped 13% compared to the prior week.  The number of new home purchase loans also increased 2% on the week.  Meanwhile, across the pond, the Bank of England has a rate hike pause back in play as a possibility after the UK reported its August CPI fell from 6.8% to 6.7% defying forecasts that had predicted an increase to 7%.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Only Singapore (+0.04%) and South Korea (+0.02%) were able to hang onto green while India (-1.15%), Thailand (-0.99%), and Japan (-0.66%) led the rest of the region down.  However, in Europe we are seeing the opposite picture taking shape at midday.  Only Russia (-0.58%) and Greece (-0.34%) are in the red.  Meanwhile, The FTSE (+0.77%), DAX (+0.60%), and CAC (+0.42%) lead the 13 green bourses higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.12% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have backed down just a bit to 4.347% and Oil (WTI) is off by two-thirds of a percent to $90.64/barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, FOMC Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Q3 1st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 2nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 3rd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Q3 Long-Term Interest Rate Projection (all at 2 p.m.), and the Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Wednesday include GIS before the open.  Then, after the close, FDX and KBH report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Q2 Current Account, Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, S&P US Mfg. PMI, S&P U Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from DRI and FDS.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, CART opened Tuesday at $41.38 after pricing its IPO at $30 (a 39% opening gain).  However, the stock sold off the rest of the day to close at $33.70.  In good news, former IN Congressman Buyer was sentenced to 22 months in prison for insider trading.  This trading did not happen while he was in Congress, but his ties to Washington are likely why he was hired by TMUS as a consultant, gained info on their plans to buy Sprint and traded ahead of the news.  Elsewhere, the Institute of International Finance said global debt hit a record $307 trillion in Q2.  This was a $10 trillion increase over year-end 2022 and a $100 trillion increase over the last decade.  The US, Japan, Britain, and France accounted for the largest increases with China, India, and Brazil having the largest increases among emerging markets.  Finally, the in-fighting among the GOP in the House continues.  Speaker McCarthy tried to open debate on revisions to the $886 billion fiscal defense appropriations bill (widely seen as the easiest of the 12 needed funding bills).  However, five of the hardline MAGA GOP members voted against the motion, causing it to fail 214-212.  Those 5 and about 15 of their colleagues are demanding $120 billion (about 12% overall) is guaranteed to be cut out of domestic spending.  However, there are also calls (GOP and Democrat) to increase the $886 billion military spending budget, which would increase the required domestic spending cuts to achieve the same total budget.  With that giant task ahead, there are 7 business days left to resolve all 12 appropriations bills or pass a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown.

With that background, markets are little moved again and trading indecisively this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the early session, but have traded in a very tight range when they traded at all in the premarket. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) but DIA is getting close to a retest from below. So, for now, the trend of the last two weeks continues to be choppy. If you are looking at a very short timeframe, the momentum has switched from bearish to bullish and back several times during that period. In the mid-term the trend is bearish. A longer outlook shows a bullish long-term trend. The premarket session is just up off the obvious potential support levels that were just below the SPY, QQQ, and DIA on the close Friday. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is now in the lower side of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The market was flat on Monday.  Both the SPY and DIA opened flat.  Meanwhile, QQQ gapped down 0.34% at the open.  From there all three did a very modest morning rally and an equally modest afternoon selloff.  This action gave us indecisive candles across all three major index ETFs.  The SPY printed a white-bodied Spinning Top with a larger upper wick than the lower, the DIA printed a black-body Doji, and QQQ printed what might be seen as a white-bodied, Inverted Hammer.  All three closed little changed and stayed below their T-line (8ema) and 50sma.  All three also held onto the support level that they were sitting on at the close of Friday. This all happened on far-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green (and red) with Energy (+0.41%) out in front leading half of the market higher, while Consumer Cyclical (-0.75%) led half lower than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.06%, DIA was dead flat +0.00%, and QQQ lost 0.04%.  VXX fell 0.82% lower to close at 20.51 and T2122 fell back but remained in the mid-range at 32.69.  10-year bond yields fell again to close at 4.307% while Oil (WTI) rose another 1.82% to end the day at $92.40 per barrel.  So, in a sense, it was a typical pre-Fed Monday where everyone was just waiting on the Fed decision.  This time around, the entire market thinks (well 99.0% according to the Fed Futures) they already know the Fed decision.  So, if we are waiting on the Fed, it would be waiting to see the verbiage and tone of Fed Chair Powell’s statement.

The only major economic news reported Monday was July TIC (Treasury International Capital) Net Long-Term Transactions.  This measures the difference between long-term foreign securities purchased by US citizens and the US long-term securities bought by foreign investors.  “Long-Term” is a bit of a misnomer here in as much as TIC includes all stocks, bonds, derivatives, options, swaps, currency, and even bank transactions.  It also does not measure the length of hold or even the intended length of the hold. So, TIC is really just a measure of the flow of money into and out of the US.  In other words, it is measuring how the world (including the US) views the US as an investment relative to the entire rest of the world. For July, TIC came in at its lowest level since December of 2021 but was still positive at +$8.8 billion (compared to a forecast of +$116.5 billion and a June reading of +$186.0 billion).  Therefore, in July, the world continued to view the US as the best place to invest money.

In stock news, on Monday AAPL announced that it has received a promising number of pre-orders for its iPhone 15 (10%-12% stronger than the iPhone 14).  That’s both good and bad.  It shows demand but has also forced AAPL to push back the first deliveries into November to avoid seeming to trickle out the phones.  At the same time, GEHC has received a $44 million grant from the Gates Foundation to develop AI-assisted ultrasound technology.  Later, CLX reported it has been fighting with operational issues caused by a mid-August cyberattack.  The company said the attack caused significant damage to its IT infrastructure and forced the company’s automated order processing system offline. The company warned investors to expect a substantial impact on quarterly results.  Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal reported that TSLA and Saudi Arabia are in the early stages of talks over the opening of a TSLA plant in the Kingdom.  (CEO Elon Musk then denied the report.) Later, C announced they are getting into blockchain by launching “Citi Token Services” to offer digital asset solutions to institutional customers.  At the same time, M announced it will be hiring 38,000 full and part-time workers for the holiday season. (This is down from the 41,000 M hired in the 2022 holiday season and far below the 76,000 in 2021.)  After the close, NSC launched a program to compensate homeowners in East Palestine OH who sell their houses and experience a reduction in value after the Feb. 3 train derailment and chemical spill.  Also after the close, SAN announced it would merge divisions and make a significant leadership reorganization, including the reduction of management layers and job cuts.  Monday evening, a regulatory filing showed that the CEO of SQ was stepping down from her post on Oct. 2 and Chairman Jack Dorsey will take over at least temporarily.  Finally, CART priced its IPO at $30 (top of the estimated range) and will begin trading today.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, NVO shares dropped Monday after a MarketWire report claiming the company failed an FDA inspection of its NC plant, with quality control lapses cited in the report.  Later, LYFT agreed to pay a $10 million fine as part of a settlement with the SEC.  The case involved the undisclosed pre-IPO sale of $424 million in shares.  Elsewhere, the FDA approved a GSK treatment for adults with myelofibrosis and anemia.  (GSK acquired the treatment by buying SRRA for $1.9 billion in 2022.)  This will make GSK an immediate competitor in one $2.4 billion market as well as treating two other diseases (markets).  At the same time, the Brazilian telephone regulator approved VIV’s capital reduction plan (which now needs the approval of shareholders).  Near the close, it was reported that Taiwan had approved TSMs’ $4.5 billion investment (working capital) into its AZ chip fab.  However, Investing.com reported that TSM is having trouble finding skilled chip plant workers for its new AZ plant.  As a result, TSM is shifting focus toward a $8.6 fab plant it is building in Japan.  Meanwhile, a federal judge ruled SBUX must face a lawsuit claiming the coffee chain’s “fruit beverages” actually do not contain fruit.  After the close, MS was sued for $750 million by private equity lenders that claimed MS defrauded them in an investment in a high-speed rail company.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, F is set for more bad news on the labor front.  The company’s 5,600 Canadian union workers contract expired Monday night at midnight.  Unifor (Canadian version of UAW) said they will remain at the table, but the likelihood of a strike increases each hour.  In other tangentially related news, 44k union workers for Hyundai (HYMTF) in South Korea have approved a new contract (by a vote of 58.8% for and 41.1% against).  The contract provides those workers a one-time bonus, a 12% per year pay increase, and new performance-based bonuses.  Back in the US, GM told 2,000 non-striking workers in KS the company expects to lay them off later this week due to a lack of parts.  In MI, a parts supplier to the Big 3, told state officials it expects to close 4 plants for a month, laying off 300 workers.  At the same time, X shut down one of its plants (Granite City) due to the lack of demand from the automakers, laying off 1,000 workers.  Meanwhile, STLA negotiators told the press that Monday’s talks were “constructive.”  Then, early today, Unifor said it has received a substantial offer from F and is extending the strike deadline by 24 hours to give time for more talks.  In the US, the UWA said it will definitely strike additional plants if “serious progress” is not made by Friday.  On the company side, STLA said it could close 18 US facilities (10 Mopar distribution centers among them) under the new contract (although none has been agreed yet).  However, STLA said it could also bring in new investments and repurpose the Illinois plant (closed in February) into a mega-hug for Mopar distribution.

So far this morning, AZO beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  This included quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.4%.

Overnight, Asian markets were decidedly in the red on modest moves.  Only Hong Kong (+0.37%) was able to stay in the green.  Meanwhile, Japan (-0.87%), Shenzhen (-0.73%), and Singapore (-0.69%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a much more mixed picture at midday.  Russia (-1.34%) and Greece (-1.13%) are the only movers of more than one percent while nine of the 15 bourses are in the green.  The CAC (+0.30%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (+0.15%) lead the region on volume.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.319% and Oil (WTI) is up yet another 1.03% to $92.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Preliminary August Building Permits and August Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Tuesday are limited to AZO before the open.  Then, after the close SCS reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, FOMC Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Q3 1st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 2nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 3rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 Long-Term Interest Rate Projection, and the Fed Chair Press Conference.  On Thursday, Q2 Current Account, Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, S&P US Mfg. PMI, S&P U Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, GIS, FDX, and KBH report.  On Thursday, we hear from DRI and FDS.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, the GOP proposal for a continuing resolution that includes an 8% cut in domestic program budgets lasted all of about 18 hours.  On Monday, 10 far-right MAGA Congressmen that Speaker McCarthy needs to pass such a resolution announced they oppose the idea altogether.  McCarthy can only afford to lose 8 votes unless he can get Democratic support.  Elsewhere, the US military is asking for the help of the public to locate a F-35 fighter that crashed in SC after the pilot ejected. (Am I the only one worried that the DoD can’t find it on its own…or they didn’t think to stick an AAPL airtag in the thing while operating in the US?)  Overnight, the debris field was found about two hours Northeast of the Charleston Joint-Service Base.

With that background, markets are little moved again and trading indecisively this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the early session, but have traded in a very tight range when they traded at all in the premarket. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) but DIA is getting close to a retest from below. So, for now, the trend of the last two weeks continues to be choppy. If you are looking at a very short timeframe, the momentum has switched from bearish to bullish and back several times during that period. In the mid-term the trend is bearish. A longer outlook shows a bullish long-term trend. The premarket session is just up off the obvious potential support levels that were just below the SPY, QQQ, and DIA on the close Friday. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is now in the lower side of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, it was all Bears, all the time in the stock market on a triple-witching day.  The SPY gapped down 0.73%, DIA gapped down 0.49%, and QQQ gapped down 0.37%.  However, that was just the start.  All three major index ETFs continued to sell off until 1:35 p.m.  After that, all three ground sideways, along the lows and in a tight range, the rest of the day.  This action gave us gap-down, large, black candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all crossed down and closed back below their T-line (8ema) and 50sma.  This happened on above-average volume in the SPY and just below-average volume in the DIA and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.60%) out in front leading the rest of the market lower, while Utilities (-0.36%) held up better than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 1.55%, DIA lost 1.09%, and QQQ lost 1.71%. VXX shot 3.87% higher to close at 20.68 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 42.36.  10-year bond yields rose again to close at 4.336% while Oil (WTI) rose another 1.15% to end the day at $91.20 per barrel.  So, the Bears ended the week showing some strength.  At the same time, we should realize just like Thursday closed just below a potential level of resistance, Friday closed just above a level of potential support.

The major economic news reported Friday included the August Export Price Index (covering items sold), which came in much higher than expected at +1.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% and a July reading of +0.5%).  Interestingly, the August Import Price Index (covering inputs or products bought) rose only +0.5% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and a July value of +0.1%).  At the same time, the NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index coming in far above predicted (but still weak), at +1.90 (compared to a forecast of -10.00 and very far above the August reading of -19.00).  Later, August Industrial Production (month-on-month) was reported stronger than anticipated at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.1% but well below the July reading of +0.7%).  On an annual basis, the August Industrial Production (year-on-year) was +0.25%, compared to a July value of -0.04%.  At mid-morning, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was reported below expected at 67.7 (versus a forecast of 69.1 and a previous reading of 69.5).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations came in slightly above predicted at 66.3 (compared to a forecast of 66.0 and a prior value of 65.5).  In addition, the Michigan Consumer 1-year Inflation Expectation was DOWN significantly to 3.1% (versus a forecast and previous reading of 3.5%).  The same was true for the Michigan Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations, which came in a 2.7% (compared to a forecast and prior reading of 3.0%).

In stock news, on Friday, PLNT shares plunged as the board ousted its CEO.  At the same time, Auto industry analysts reported Friday that for 2023 China’s new car sales are expected to be 25% electric, up from only 4% five years ago.  This has helped TSLA and Chinese EV-makers like BYDDY.  (It is worth noting that Chinese automakers traditionally have a 5% profit margin but that has been compressed to 3% in the last 3 years.  Regardless, the low margins typically make them by far the least expensive options for Chinese buyers.)  However, this large adoption of EVs poses a major issue for F and GM.  With no major existing EV offerings in China, those companies are seeing serious market share erosion.  Elsewhere, a day after it was reported NXST is in talks with DIS about purchasing the Mouse House’s ABC, FX, and Nat. Geographic units, media mogul Byron Allen made his own $10 billion bid to buy those units.  At the same time, the CEO of NSC made the media rounds Friday in continuing attempts to recover public reputation following the February derailment and contamination event in East Palestine OH.  The CEO pledged the railroad is going to enhance safety across its network, implementing recommendations from external consultants the company hired to evaluate its rail operations.  The PR blitz included providing that small Ohio town a $4.3 million new water treatment plant after tests have had residents using bottled water since February.  Later, VLO announced it had authorized a $2.5 billion share repurchase plan with no expiration date.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, AAPL moved to soothe the concerns of the French and Belgian governments (who took action against the iPhone Model 12 over excessive radiation levels).  AAPL said it will release a software update that will reduce the radiation to acceptable levels.  Later, EU antitrust regulators announced they had set an October 19 deadline for a decision on allowing or blocking the PFE $43 billion acquisition of SGEN.  Elsewhere, the FBI leaked (and later the hackers confirmed) that “Scattered Spider” (a sub-group of the ALPHV ransomware gang) is responsible for the cyber-attack that has crippled MGM for almost a week.  (ATMs, slot machines, room keys, and many other electronic systems have been paralyzed at MGM hotels and casinos.)  This is the same group suspected to have attacked (and been paid a $15 million ransom) by CZR recently.  However, Scattered Spider has made no claim of responsibility for that attack.  Later, the FAA reduced minimum flight requirements at NYC airports through October 2024 to give airlines another year (after already having been given a six-month grace period).  This grace period will help DAL and JBLU the most as they had been the ones unable to meet the requirements and at risk of losing gates and landing slots.  However, the added leeway may give other airlines additional scheduling flexibility as well.  Later, the state of CA filed suit against XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, COP, and the industry trade group American Petroleum Institute. The suit accuses the firms of causing tens of billions of dollars in damage to the state (environment and climate-related disasters which cost the state untold sums).  The suit also accuses the defendants of deceiving the public about the dangers of fossil fuels for decades. Reuters reported that the only response from defendants, so far, is that the courtroom, and in particular a state jurisdiction courtroom, is not the right venue to address climate change.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you know the UAW began a “targeted strike” after the previous labor contract expired at midnight Thursday night. As of that time 12,000 of the union’s 146,000 workers (8%) went on strike at one plant each of the Big 3 automakers.  Late Friday, GM increased its offer to a 20% pay increase over 4 years and STLA boosted its offer to a 19.5% over the length of the next contract.  So far, the impacts on F, GM, and STLA have not been heavy.  Still, F laid off 600 of its non-striking workers at one plant because of a parts shortage caused by the strike.  GM told 2,000 workers at a KS plant it will likely shut this week due to a lack of parts from its striking plant.  The good news for the three stocks (and companies) is that they have been preparing for the strike for a year.  All three have huge lots filled with complete or nearly completed vehicles as well as substantial component stockpiles.  (That was a heavy lift for an industry that long ago went to just-in-time and demand-pull inventory models.)  So, the top industry analysts expect GM, F, and STLA to not have large-scale finished product or component shortages as long as the strike does not last months.  Meanwhile, the UAW has about $827 million in its “strike fund.”  Depending on how many of its 146k workers are on strike or laid off, that could be a big enough war chest to last quite a while.  If all 146k were striking, that would be 11 weeks of pay coverage.

Despite the strike, negotiations, never really stopped.  Over the weekend, on Saturday, STLA increased its offer to a 21% wage hike (10% immediate, the rest over four years), some inflation protection, and a partial end to wage tiers.  The UAW immediately rejected that offer saying that the Big 3’s executive pay has increased more than 40% in the last 4 years.  As an aside, the CEO pay of the Big 3 has all increased about 40% over the life of the last UAW contract.  (Other executive pay was not easily found.) All three CEOs now make 360-370 times as much as the most experienced UAW members.  For reference, a starting autoworker (lowest tier) for the Big 3 makes an average of just under $18/hour.  However, “temp workers,” which all three companies use but STLA in particular uses extensively, make just $15/hour.  That “temp worker” rate has not changed in 14 years.  At the experienced end of the spectrum, UAW members make $32.30/hour.  Back to the main topic. On Sunday, the UAW said the obvious that the number of plants under strike may expand.  At about the same time, the White House said it will be sending a team of negotiators to Detroit to help the sides reach a deal to end the strike.

After the close, mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Hong Kong (-1.39%), Taiwan (-1.32%), and South Korea (-1.02%) paced the losses while Japan (+1.10%) was by far the biggest gainer.  However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.03%), DAX (-0.61%), and FTSE (-0.35%) are typical of the range and lead the region lower on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.01% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.343% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to July TIC Net Long-Term Transaction (4 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday Preliminary August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  Wednesday, we get EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, FOMC Q3 Interest Rate Projection, Q3 1st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 2nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 3rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q3 Long-Term Interest Rate Projection, and the Fed Chair Press Conference.  On Thursday, Q2 Current Account, Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, August Existing Home Sales, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, S&P US Mfg. PMI, S&P U Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AZO and SCS.  Then Wednesday, GIS, FDX, and KBH report.  On Thursday, we hear from DRI and FDS.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, US oil prices hit the high of the year on Friday on what oil analysts say was China recovery optimism and tight supply (mostly from Russian and Saudi extended production cuts).  Elsewhere, Employment industry firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas told Reuters on Friday that their surveys of retailers have led them to predict the industry will high the fewest seasonal workers since 2008.  CG&C estimate the industry will hire 410k seasonal workers, compared to more than 519k in 2022 (and that itself was a 26% decline from 2021).  Finally, late Sunday night, House Republicans announced they have reached a deal on a continuing resolution that would fund the government for another month (through Oct. 31). The deal hammered out by the GOP alone (basically a deal between the small radical-right MAGA group and the rest of the GOP caucus) cuts domestic spending, enforces the MAGA immigration demands, and keeps defense spending as-is. The GOP has the votes to pass this in the House but it is very likely dead on arrival in the Senate. Even if passed and signed, it is still unclear what the implications to existing programs would be of the reduced domestic spending. So, I guess you could see this as progress. However, it is far from a “done deal” and there are 10 days left to avert a government shutdown.

With that background, markets are little moved but trading decidedly bearish this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the early session, but have traded lower across the whole premarket to give us black-bodied candles with almost no wick at least as of now. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and seem to be picking up steam in the early session (perhaps in sympathy with Asian and European trading). So, for now, the trend of the last two weeks has been choppy. If you are looking at a very short timeframe, the momentum has switched from bearish to bullish and back several times during that period. A longer outlook shows a bearish mid-term and a bullish long-term trend. The premarket session is also testing the obvious potential support levels that were just below the SPY, QQQ, and DIA on the close Friday. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is now at the top of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets gapped higher, opening up 0.57% in the SPY, up 0.59% in the DIA, and up 0.44% in the QQQ.  However, the Bears said “Not so fast” as all three major index ETFs started immediately selling and didn’t stop until 10:25 a.m. The QQQ even recrossed its opening gap during that move.  Still, that was the last we heard from the Bears as the Bulls stepped in to lead a rally that lasted the rest of the day (although to be fair, most of the afternoon was more of a sideways grind).  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three are back above their T-line (8ema) and 50sma.  QQQ even retested its T-line from above and passed the test while DIA did the same with its 50sma.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+1.89%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher, while Healthcare (+0.35%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.86%, DIA gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 0.82%. This all happened on just below-average volume in all three major index ETFs. (A bit better volume than we saw the three earlier days this week.) VXX dropped 2.93% to close at 19.91 and T2122 shot back up to just outside of overbought territory at 79.90. 10-year bond yields rose to close at 4.288% while Oil (WTI) spiked to end the day at $90.53 per barrel.  So, with the exception of some “fade the gap” sentiment just after the open, it was the Bulls’ day and a pretty steady and boring one at that. Still, we closed just below potential resistance levels and that should not be ignored.

The major economic news reported Thursday included August Core PPI (month-on-month), which came in just as expected at +0.2% (right on the forecast but well down from the July +0.4% reading).  However, August PPI (overall, not just core, month-on-month) came in hot at +0.7% (versus a forecast and July value of +0.4%).  At the same time, August Core Retail Sales also came in above the predicted level at +0.6% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% but down from the July reading of +0.7%).  Overall August Retail Sales (month-on-month) also came in well above anticipated at +0.6% (versus a forecast of +0.2% and even above the July +0.5% value).  Later, July Retail Inventories were reported to have fallen, reported at flat +0.0% compared to the June +0.1% reading.  At the same time, July Business Inventories also came in flat at +0.0% (below the forecast of +0.1% but up from the June -0.1% value).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet Weekly report showed a continued decline but a much smaller one this week.  This week it fell just $2 billion from $8.101 trillion to $8.099 trillion.  This was the smallest decrease since March.

In new issue news, the much-hyped ARM IPO went live Thursday, opening at $56.21 after the stock had priced at $51.  It traded as high as $66.25, as low as $55.55, and closed at $63.59.  Elsewhere, a new ETF (QQQY) began trading Thursday that is aimed at taking advantage of the craze of zero and short-dated equity options.  The new ETF aims to achieve a monthly yield for investors by selling 0DTE put options on the Nasdaq-100 index (hoping to capture the premium) in combination with buying Treasuries.

In stock news, UP appointed a member of the DAL board (George Mattson) as its new CEO. This came weeks after UP received a $500 million lifeline loan from a consortium of airlines (including DAL).  Later, NVO announced it still intends to split its stock (ADR) 2-for-1 on September 20, despite its 23% surge since August 4 and 41% gain this year.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported unnamed sources tell it that TSLA is very close to announcing new manufacturing technology that will allow the company to die-cast the entire underbody of its cars.  (As opposed to making or buying and then assembling 400 underbody components now.)  If/when implemented, a large amount of labor and cost would be removed from each car, allowing TSLA to achieve lower prices, higher margins, or more likely both.  The technology would also allow TSLA to launch a new vehicle designed from the ground up in 18-24 months versus the current 3–4-year timeline.  At the same time, TSM announced that it has acquired a 10% stake in the INTC Nanofabrication business unit for $430 million.  This comes after INTC sold a 20% stake in the unit to Bain Capital.  By midday, CZR disclosed that it had also suffered a cyber attack (and paid a $15 million ransom to the attackers) before MGM suffered a very similar attack Sunday.  At the same time, the CFO of T said the company is optimistic it will reach its full-year free cash flow forecast of $16 billion.  After the close, Reuters reported the new CEO of BAYRY plans to cut management jobs as a first step in his plan to overhaul the German industrial/chemical giant.  (No number of jobs or timetable was provided.)  Also after the close, Reuters reported that DIS has had preliminary talks with NXST over the sale of DIS subsidiary ABC.  (NXST operates a regional network of TV stations.) 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the Indian state of Goa told ABT that it plans to suspend the company’s antacid manufacturing license.  This comes after Goa authorities found contamination risks and sanitation issues in the plant.  (ABT has a 7% share of the Indian market in that segment with annual sales of about $11 million.) Later, a day after France halted the sale, Belgium said Thursday it is reviewing the potential health risks of AAPL iPhone 12 models.  However, there does not appear to be an EU-wide ban movement underway yet as the European Commission is waiting on feedback from its member countries before deciding on what, if any, action to take on the matter.  By midday, the US Supreme Court froze an order by a lower court that had curbed the Biden Administration’s ability to engage with social media companies like META, GOOGL, and X (Twitter) in an effort to get them to remove misleading, false, or dangerous content.  In stock legal news, GOOGL hinted at part of its antitrust defense.  The search giant shared data it says shows that users are “happy to stick with Google search when pre-installed on their devices and quickly switch when competing search engines are pre-installed.”  On the other side, the government introduced evidence showing that GOOGL spends $10 billion each year to keep Google as the default search engine in phones, tablets, and browsers.  In the afternoon, a proposed class action lawsuit was filed against several companies, including JNJ, PG, WBA, GSK, and KVUE alleging these companies deceived consumers in advertising of over-the-counter cold medicines that contain an ingredient an FDA panel just recently unanimously ruled was ineffective (no more effective than placebo).  No damage information is available yet, but that segment of products generates about $1.76 billion in annual sales in the US.  After the close, GOOGL agreed to pay the state of CA $93 million to resolve a lawsuit claiming the company’s search engine misled consumers about its location tracking practices.  (GOOGL continues to track and use people’s location data for advertising even after they have turned off the “Location History” setting.)  Also after the close, UBER said it would appeal a $205 million fine from a Brazilian court over a ruling that the company used “irregular labor relations” for treating drivers as contractors and not as employees.

After the close, ADBE, CPRT, and LEN all reported beats on both the revenue and the earnings lines.  (ADBE and CPRT both had actual quarter-on-quarter earnings growth while LEN beat a reduced number.)  It is worth noting that both ADBE and LEN raised their forward guidance. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green again.  Only Shenzhen (-0.52%), Shanghai (-0.28%), and Thailand (-0.20%) were in the red.  The other nine Asian exchanges were led higher by Australia (+1.29%), Japan (+1.10%), and South Korea (+1.10%).  In Europe, with the sole exception of Russia (-0.08%), the bourses are green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.66%), DAX (+1.07%), and FTSE (+0.83%) are leading a broad and strong move higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and modest start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.22% open, the SPY is implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are popping higher at 4.324% and Oil (WTI) is up slightly to $90.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Year-on-Year Industrial Production and August Month-on-Month Industrial Production (both at 9:15 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 12-month Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close. 

In Autoworker contract talks or strike news, GM sweetened its offer to include a 20% pay increase over 4 years as well as an unclear inflation-protection mechanism, and an increase to 5 weeks of vacation.  For their part, F CEO Farley made no new offer but told reporters that the UAW’s 40% wage hike demand would put the company out of business (in bankruptcy).  In addition, Farley said he has not received a counter-offer to the company’s 20% wage increase proposal.  (To be fair, the union did lower its demand to a 36% increase over the new contract.)  With just eight hours left until the current contract expired, the AP reported the sides remained far apart and the union’s targeted individual-plant strikes looked unavoidable.  In the end, no deal was reached and at midnight, autoworkers went on strike at three key plants.  The GM truck and van plant in MO, the F Ranger and Bronco pickup plant in MI, and the STLA Jeep plant in OH are the first plants to see pickets.  The UAW says the 3 strikes so far cover just 12,700 union members (over more than 146,000).  The three plants selected produce high-profit vehicles for the automakers.  (UAW President Fain had previously announced that the strikes will rotate, move to different plants, and increase in number to cause maximum uncertainty and disruption if the strike continues.  The idea is to force the Big 3 to live with the chaos of unpredictable operations and shortages, even as most union workers continue to draw normal paychecks. However, the Big 3 also have the option of locking all union employees out by closing all their plants.  Neither option is good for the three largest automakers.)

In miscellaneous news, China struck back (rhetorically) at the EU Thursday after European Commission President von der Leyen had announced an investigation into China over electric vehicle subsidies that allowed Chinese carmakers to flood the world (Europe) with EVs at artificially low prices.  China, predictably, blasted the European Commission move as protectionist, and anti-competitive and said it would harm economic relations.  This last part caused concern among the German car industry which sells a lot of cars in China.  Meanwhile, in the US, frustrated GOP House Speaker McCarthy provoked and taunted right-wing members of his caucus over their threats and pseudo-extortion.  (The most extreme members of the small right-wing “Freedom Caucus” have publicly threatened to force McCarthy out of his Speakership unless their list of demands is met in recent days.)  McCarthy told Republican Congressmen that if they wanted to remove him, they should file the…motion, but they should get out of the way of “everybody’s work.”  Specifically, he told them nobody wins a government shutdown and he is set on not having that happen.  However, there are only 9 “working days” (16 calendar days) left before a shutdown is forced by the House’s failure to pass the 12 different required appropriation bills.  Elsewhere, China cut the reserve requirements for banks for the second time this year.  However, this intended stimulus was minor to say the least, reducing the cash reserves requirement by a quarter percent to 7.4%.  Still, the move is expected to free up just under $69 billion for loaning and investment into medium and long-term projects.

With that background, it looks like markets are undecided this morning. The three major index ETFs are little moved from the Thursday close and are printing small candles in the premarket session. All three remain above their T-line (8ema) but they are also close to that average and could easily recross it if the Bears find some strength. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all also above their 50sma again this morning. So, for now, they market remains in a bullish trend. However, we should also note that there is an obvious potential resistance level just above the SPY, QQQ, and DIA. The short, mid, and long-term trends remain bullish, but action has been choppy within those trends recently. In terms of extension, as mentioned, none of the major index ETFs are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is now at the top of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move. Finally, this is Friday. So, pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend with whatever hedging or lightening up is appropriate for your risk tolerance.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Wednesday with “gapping” up 0.04%, DIA gapping up 0.08%, and QQQ gapping up 0.04%.  At that point, the two large-cap index ETFs traded dead sideways while the QQQ made a small rally and then sold off in the first 30 minutes.  All three then sold off until 10:20 a.m., before rallying back up until 11 a.m.  After that, the SPY, DIA, and QQ all traded sideways in a very tight range until 2 p.m.  This led to a selloff that lasted until 3:15 p.m. before the day ended on a modest 45-minute rally.  This led to indecisive Spinning Top candles in all three major index ETFs, white-bodied in the SPY and QQQ as well as a black-bodied on in the DIA.  SPY and DIA both failed a retest and closed tight below their T-line (8ema) and 50sma while QQQ closed tight above its own T-line and 50sma.  This all happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs. 

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (+1.02%) way out in front leading the rest of the market higher, while Energy (-0.71%) was by far the biggest laggard sector.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost just 0.19%, and QQQ gained 0.38%.  VXX fell just over two percent to close at 20.51 and T2122 dropped back down to just inside the oversold territory at 19.51.  10-year bond yields fell to close at 4.254% while Oil (WTI) ended the day flat at $88.85 per barrel.  So, on the whole, it was a very indecisive and volatile day (at least within a small range).  

The major economic news reported Wednesday included August Core CPI (month-on-month) which came in a bit hot at +0.3%, compared to a forecast of +0.2% which was also the July value.  However, the August Core CPI (year-on-year) was in line with what was expected at +4.3% (versus a +4.3% forecast and down from the July reading of +4.7%). Meanwhile, the August CPI month-on-month came in as predicted at +0.6% (compared to a +0.6% forecast but far above the July value of +0.2%).  At the same time, August CPI year-on-year was higher than anticipated at +3.7% (versus a forecast of +3.6% and the July reading of +3.2%).  Later the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a significant unexpected build of 3.954 million barrels (compared to a forecast calling for a drawdown of 1.912 million barrels and far above the prior week’s 6.307-million-barrel drawdown). Finally, at 2 p.m., the Federal Budget Balance was massively better than expected at +89.3 billion, yes it was a surplus, (versus a forecasted -$240 billion and the August deficit of $221 billion).  In light of the CPI data, it is worth noting that Wednesday night the CME Fedwatch Tool still shows that markets have priced in a 97% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged next week.

In stock news, German jet engine provider MTUAY said Wednesday that it will begin talks with RTX over the $751 million hit MTUAY will suffer due to problems with RTX’s Pratt & Whitney engines.  Elsewhere, DAL is facing a proposed class-action suit in Los Angeles over “Greenwashing” for allegedly false advertising in which DAL claimed to be “carbon-neutral” based on carbon offsets the company had purchased.  Later, XOM disclosed that it’s invested $30 billion into various projects in the Qatar LNG industry.  At the same time, USB was down hard after its three top officers made comments at an industry conference stating that slow loan growth would be a drag in its Q3 performance.  The CEO also said he expected “a little bit more of the effect in Q4.”  In other banking news, C announced a major reorganization Wednesday, cutting entire layers out of the management hierarchy and giving the CEO direct oversight of the five core business units.  Interestingly, while “job cuts” were part of the announcement, no numbers, timing, or specific senior manager exits were mentioned.  Later, EPOW shares jumped after it announced it had received interest from TSLA over its battery component products.  In less promising news, MMM warned that it foresees a “slow growth environment” in 2024, particularly mentioning projected weakness in electronics and consumer segments.  Later SGML announced it is “exploring strategic options” for the whole company after it has received multiple proposals for its Brazilian unit.  After the close, Reuters reported that GS has fired “several” executives in its transaction banking unit after they violated company communications policies (using banned apps like WhatsApp for secret interactions).  Also after the close, SBUX announced that founder and former three-time CEO Schultz will retire from the company board on September 30.  Wednesday evening, the head of US operations for TD said that the US Justice Dept. probe into the bank’s money laundering compliance is “manageable.”  However, he said he expects fines and non-monetary penalties.  Wednesday night, BRKB announced it sold 5.5 million shares of HPQ this week, unraveling a small portion of its $3.27 billion position in the stock.  Finally, The long-anticipated ARM IPO goes live today, after the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that it will be priced at $52 per share (top end of its earlier-announced range).

In stock government, and regulatory news, the NASDAQ has formally submitted an application to the SEC, seeking approval to list an ETF the combines the spot and futures contract prices of Ethereum cryptocurrency. The fund, Hashex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF, would be offered by a Brazilian asset management company managed by Toroso Investments.  Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced that TM has issued recalls for nearly 22k 2023 Tundra and Tundra Hybrid vehicles (due to load carrying labeling that can encourage usage at unsafe load capacities).  Overseas, China said that it “has not banned the purchase or use of foreign phones (AAPL).  However, at the same time, the spokesman said they had noticed a lot of recent media exposure over security incidents related to AAPL phones and the Chinese government placed great importance on information security…and will monitor things closely.  (Great house you have there.  It would be a shame is it burned down.  AAPL gets 20% of its revenue from China.)  At the same time, the FBI announced it was investigating the cyber attack at MGM that has kept the hotel and casino operator’s systems paralyzed for three days now.  Meanwhile, AAPL defended its iPhone 12 model after a French watchdog agency halted the sale of that model, claiming the phone breaches EU radiation exposure limits.  AAPL claims the 12 model (2020) phone meets international standards for radiation, but French tests have now found otherwise.  This raises the possibility of European-wide bans on the sale of model 12 iPhones.  After the close, the EEOC filed suit in AR against WMT over allegations it fired hourly workers with disabilities who could not pass a computer-based test which had no relation to their jobs.  (WMT has since discontinued the tests but did not offer to rehire those workers it fired.)  Also after the close, Elon Musk told reporters that while he can’t read lawmaker’s minds, the majority did raise their hand when asked if they felt there was a need from more AI regulation.  (The day-long closed-door session was meant to be a primer for lawmakers on AI technology and issues with speakers including the CEOs from GOOGL, META, NVDA, MSFT, IBM, and TSLA as well as former MSFT CEO Bill Gates.)

In stock legal news, a federal judge in Washington DC ruled that DAL and UAL must face a consumer antitrust class action case that accuses the airlines of conspiring to drive up domestic airfares by reducing the number of seats available.  (AAL and LUV have already settled for $45 million and $15 million respectively over this same claim.)  Elsewhere, in the GOOG antitrust case, Wednesday, a former GOOG executive testified that the company aggressively sought “exclusive” deals with mobile carriers for use of its search engine.  Later, a US Appeals Court questioned why a shareholder lawsuit against PCG officers and directors had been halted since September 2022.  A lower court judge halted the case at company request as PCG pursued bankruptcy.  The three-judge panel called the delay puzzling and questioned what efficiency was being gained by the delay. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green.  South Korea (+1.51%), Japan (+1.41%), and Taiwan (+1.36%) paced the gainers while the only three red exchanges were Shenzhen (-0.57%), New Zealand (-0.38%), and Malaysia (-0.27%).  In Europe, the only red at midday comes from Russia (-1.24%).  Meanwhile, The FTSE (+1.24%), CAC (+0.41%), and DAX (+0.24%) lead the region higher.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a higher open.  The DIA implies a +0.30% open, the SPY is implying a +0.44% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.45% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit once again to 4.262% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.32% to $89.69 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes August Month-on-Month PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and August Retail Sales (all at 8:30 a.m.), July Business Inventories and July Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports before the open.  However, after the close, ADBE, CPRT, and LEN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, the August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, August Year-on-Year Industrial Production, August Month-on-Month Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 12-month Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled again.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that global central banks are not as down on US Treasuries as the media might have you believe.  In fact, demand is consistent and bond buying is on pace to top last year’s $183 billion as central banks are trying to scoop up beaten-down US bonds.  The article pointed out that currency exchange rate differences accounted for all of the changes in the value of bond sales (not the quantity).  Elsewhere, the EPA issued a surprising report that claimed the US is on track to reduce carbon emissions between 35% and 43% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels). The agency attributed this to Inflation Reduction Act programs. However, Republicans want to kill those programs in support of industry and would likely dispute those findings as “just made up to take credit.” Meanwhile, on the other side, Environmentalists would likely dispute the findings as pollyannish and overly optimistic, especially given continuing industry pushback and the 6.25 years left between now and 2030.   In other Congressional news, GOP House Majority Whip Emmer introduced a bill aimed at preventing the Fed from creating a Central Bank Digital Currency.  While he claimed this was needed because President Biden “is willing to compromise American’s right to privacy,” he did not mention the idea was first proposed (and studies of the idea began during) the Trump Administration and that the Fed is not actually part of any branch of government.  Meanwhile, on a similar topic, the fifth-largest Australian bank (Macquarie) announced it will begin phasing out cash, check, and phone operations in favor of digital-only transactions.  Finally, the London Metal Exchange reported that Copper stockpiles have reached the highest level in two years, citing a decline in the expected demand from China.

In Autoworker contract talks or strike news, President Biden said Wednesday that he expects the UAW and major automakers to work around-the-clock to avoid a strike.  He also said the White House was engaged with both sides encouraging progress in the negotiations.  For its part, the UAW outlined plans for a series of strikes targeting specific individual auto plants of all three top carmakers.  However, the currently planned strikes would not be company-wide for any of the three.  (This would be the first ever simultaneous strike against the Big 3.)  The current contract expires tonight at midnight and the strikes have already been authorized by workers.  The union said the best offer from the companies was a 20% wage hike spread over 4.5 years offered by F with the other two offering two to 2.5% less than F.  Meanwhile, the UAW lowered its demand from 40% to 36% over the same 4.5-year period.  On Wednesday night, F CEO Farley “rebuffed” comments made by UAW President Fain (who had said F was not taking bargaining seriously).  Instead, Farley blamed Fain for giving “no genuine counteroffer” to the most recent F proposal.  Farley went on to blame Fain for being absent from a Tuesday meeting that he and F Chair Bill Ford expected him.  (Fain later replied he was elsewhere meeting with STLA negotiators.)  As a side note, it does seem odd and unwieldy to hold all three negotiations at the same time, but separately.  Yet the companies do claim to have different issues and situations.  The bottom line of all this is that we seem to be 16 hours from strikes at individual auto plants, which will last varying lengths and rotate between plants for each automaker (a tactic designed to force the companies to either lock all autoworkers out or cause maximum chaos).

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are making at least a modest push this morning. All three major index ETFs are back above their T-line (8ema). The SPY and QQQ are also back above their 50sma while the DIA is just below that average. All three gave us “gap ups” in the early session but the candles are still small and are not showing premarket follow-through (at least yet). The short, mid, and long-term trends remain bullish, but action has been choppy within those trends recently. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are very far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is now just inside the oversold range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move. Again, it’s a matter of finding the buyers or sellers to get the move started…one way or the other.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw us gap down at the open, down 0.34% in the SPY, down 0.23% in the DIA, and down 0.47% in the QQQ.  At that point, all three of the major index ETFs ground sideways for about and hour.  Then we started some modest wave action, mostly to the side in SPY, a bigger swing to the upside in the DIA, and mostly to the downside in the QQQ all until 1:30 p.m.  However, all three then sold off for two hours and then traded sideways in a tight range the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Inverted Hammer in the DIA, a black-bodied Inverted Hammer, and a black-bodied candle with an upper wick in the QQQ.  All three retested their T-lines (8ema) during the day with QQQ and SPY failing while SPY held up and closed above.  This all happened in well-below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs (far below in the DIA). 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.35%) way out front leading the rest of the market lower while Energy (+1.81%) was way out front holding up better than any other sector.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost just 0.05%, and QQQ lost 1.11%.  VXX gained slightly to close at 20.93 and T2122 climbed slightly again but remained in the mid-range at 38.02.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to close at 4.272% while Oil (WTI) popped up 1.87% to close at $88.92 per barrel.  So, on balance, it was a bearish day.  However, it was not very decisive, and overall, it felt like the market is still waiting…maybe on the CPI data. 

The major economic news reported Tuesday started with the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.  That report projects that global oil output will be 101.2 million barrels per day in 2023 and then rise again to 102.9 million barrels per day in 2024. Meanwhile, global oil demand will reach 101.0 million barrels per day in 2023 and rise to 102.3 million barrels per day in 2024.  This means EIA projects a 0.2 million barrel per day surplus of oil this year and a 0.6 million barrel per day surplus in 2024.  (All of those numbers would be all-time record highs.)  Despite the projected surpluses, somehow, EIA projects a decline of global oil inventories of almost half a million barrels per day for the rest of 2023.  This led them to predict Brent oil averaging $93/barrel in Q4.  The same report said that the US has regained its spot as the world’s largest LNG exporter after the fire-closed Freeport LNG terminal in TX reopened following an eight-month outage. Later, the WASDE Ag Report from the USDA reflected challenging weather conditions (hot and dry in the Midwest) in the last month.  The USDA lowered their expected crop yields for both corn and soybeans (down 1.3 bushels per acre to 173.8 in corn and down 0.8 bushels per acre to 50.1 for soybeans).  This impact was partially offset by a big jump in the number of acres of corn planted this year.  Then after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report showed an unexpected increase.  The report found a build of 1.174 million barrels on the week (compared to a forecast calling for a drawdown of 2 million barrels and the prior week’s 5.521-million-barrel drawdown).

In stock news, TSM announced Tuesday that it will invest $100 million into ARM as part of the latter’s IPO.  (TSM is the world’s largest chipmaker and ARM is the major chip design rival to the x86 architecture used by INTC and AMD.)  At the same time, the CEO of LAW announced he will step down from both his CEO and Board Member roles.  LAW announced an existing board member (Scott Hill) as interim CEO.  Later, the CFO of WFC said Tuesday that he expects more layoffs are ahead but gave no timeline for cuts or details on causes. WFC has been cutting for years, having cut more than 40,000 headcount since Q3 of 2020.  However, they still had 233,834 employees at the end of June.  Elsewhere, BA reported that its deliveries decreased in August as it delivered 35 jets (main competitor EADSY delivered 52 in August).  This is well down from BA’s year-to-date average of 43 planes delivered per month.  Later the CEO of WMT told a GS Investor Conference that the company was well-positioned and he actually believes prices will fall in 2024 (at least a bit).  He went on to say that WMT is concerned about inflation in certain categories but is also already seeing “pockets of disinflation” and given the job market and wage increases the company feels “pretty good about where the consumer is in the US.”  In the afternoon, AAPL unveiled their new iPhone 15 line as well as a new Watch.  The phones feature brighter screens and an enhanced camera.  The phones go on sale September 22.  Later, XOS revealed that it has won a contract with the state of CA (and local authorities) to acquire electric step vans and other vehicles for government use in that state.  At the end of the day, PFE / BNTX set its list price for the latest COVID-19 shots at $120/dose while MRNA we tits price at $130/dose.  On Tuesday evening, the CEO of BP resigned (effective immediately) over charges of failing to disclose past personal relationships with colleagues.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, EU antitrust regulators asked MSFT competitors and customers for comments on the impacts they may experience if the MSFT-proposed remedies (to gain approval for the ATVI acquisition) are approved. No formal EU investigation of the remedies has been launched.  So, this may just be a precaution or it could signal the EU is waiting for the UK Competition Authority’s final decision before taking another step itself.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Defense signed a $21 million deal with a subsidiary of TLOFF (Canadian metal miner) to increase US nickel production by exploring the possibility of a mine in MN.  At the same time, US House Republicans held a hearing of their Chinese Communist Party Committee, hearing from several witnesses.  Interestingly, the party of “less regulation” supported the call from former Trump SEC Chair Clayton’s call for all companies over $50 billion (or with China-based revenue over $10 billion) to report on the company’s exposure to China. (I suppose they believe they can spin it that this is good additional reporting while also opposing climate risk reporting as too onerous but that logic illudes me.) At mid-afternoon, the FDA ruled that the active ingredient in many over-the-counter cold and allergy medicines is not effective.  New research found the active ingredient gave no better results than placebo.  (The next step is for the FDA to decide whether the medicines based on this ingredient need to be removed from sale.)  Later, HYMTF (Hyundai) and Kia asked a US judge to reject lawsuits filed by 17 cities for a failure to install anti-theft technologies in millions of their vehicles.  (A TikTok-inspired crime has led to millions of HYMTF and Kia vehicle thefts burdening police and leading to dozens of crashes and 10 deaths, as of February.)   The automakers responded that the real cause was lax policing by the cities rather than easy-to-steal cars.  (96% of all new vehicles sold since 2015 have had immobilizers, which would stop/limit this type of theft.  However, only 26% of HYMTF and Kia cars contain those devices.)  Meanwhile, a federal “Interagency Working Group on Mining Laws” issued a 168-page report that among other things called on Congress to introduce royalties on US hard rock mining and graduating (increasing over time) mining fees to encourage more and faster development of US mines for materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel.  After the close, the CDC Advisory Panel voted 13-1 in favor of widespread use of the new COVID-19 vaccines for anyone 6 months of age and older.  In the evening, the SEC filed suit against VIRT (broker) for misleading investors/traders into believing it properly safeguarded confidential information when in reality anyone working for the company in 2018-2019 could access all information with just common usernames and generic passwords shared amongst the broker’s offices.  This allowed their proprietary traders to access holdings, prices, and volumes to aid in their own trading.  Finally, the FDA warned CVS and WBA against manufacturing and selling unapproved eye products (some of which were being illegally marketed for treating medical conditions like cataracts, glaucoma, and conjunctivitis).

In Autoworker contract talks or strike news, auto industry and stock analysts’ notes are coming hot and heavy as the current contract end nears.  BCS said their sources tell them the talks are proceeding very slowly and there is now a high likelihood of a strike.  At the same time, Third Bridge says their analysis finds F the most vulnerable to a strike of the Big 3.  (They say this is based on F’s reliance on just a few high-value models to make their numbers…including the F-series pickups.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned bearish.  Shenzhen (-1.14%) was by far the biggest loser followed by Australia (-0.74%), and Thailand (-0.66%).  On the plus side, New Zealand (+0.52%) and India (+0.38%) were the leading gainers.  In Europe, things are much more on the red side at midday.  There are only two very modestly green bourses while the CAC (-0.90%), DAX (-0.91%), and FTSE (-0.47%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower open.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.30% and Oil (WTI) is up another two-thirds of a percent to $89.40 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes August Year-on-Year CPI and August Month-on-Month CPI (at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports for the day include CBRL and REVG before the open.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get August Month-on-Month PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, August Retail Sales, July Business Inventories, July Retail Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet. Then Friday, August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, August Year-on-Year Industrial Production, August Month-on-Month Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 12-month Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ADBE, CPRT, and LEN.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled again.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reports that unless the current regional drought ends, the Panama Canal will further reduce the maximum number of daily vessel transits.   Many ships already need to reduce loads (containers or bulk) for the transit and then wait to reload on the other side.  (Currently 32 ships per day can transit, down from 36, and the maximum draft has been reduced from 50 feet to 44 feet.)  The canal uses 50 million gallons of fresh water for every ship it transits and the lakes feeding the canal system are drying up due to prolonged drought.  Elsewhere, just ahead of its auction, Citgo (Venezuela-owned and US seized oil refiner) was valued at between $32 and $40 billion.  (The refiner was seized to satisfy $23 billion in claims against Venezuela.)  Citgo is the seventh-largest US oil refiner.  Finally, the US Census Bureau reported that average US individual income fell for the third straight year to a median $74,580.  Similar declines have historically led to recessions.  However, those recessions have usually come at the beginning of the declines, not after the third year.  At the same time, the agency reported that the number of Americans living in non-metro areas outgrew urban populations for the first time in three decades in 2021.

In late-breaking mortgage news, the Mortgage Brokers Association released their weekly data.  This week the national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rate increased to 7.27% (up from 7.21%).  As a result, overall demand for mortgages dropped 0.8% from the previous week (and was 31% lower than the same week in 2022).  This included a 5% week-over-week drop in refinance loan applications and a 1% increase in applications for new home purchase loans.

With that background, it looks like markets are waiting on the CPI data today. All three of the major index ETFs are giving us very small premarket candles so far. The DIA is still slightly above its 8ema while the SPY remains slightly below its own T-line. QQQ is the furthest below its T-line but that is not far and it is giving us the best-looking candle this morning. QQQ is also retesting its 50sma, sitting right on that level at the moment. We are likely to see a reaction to CPI (either bullish or bearish). So, expect volatility as we get closer to the open and shortly after the opening bell. The very short-term and mid-term trends remain bullish, but only just so in the short-term. (The previous short-term downtrend has been broken, but we have not yet proven we can hold above that line. So, it is really just a presumed resumption of the mid-term uptrend as of now.) In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are very far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still sitting in the lower end of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move. Again, it’s a matter of finding the buyers or sellers to get the move started and the CPI data may help with that…one way or the other.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped up on Monday (up 0.59% in the SPY, up 0.49% in the DIA, and up 0.86% in the QQQ).  After that we had a sag in all three major index ETFs that lasted until 11 a.m.  At that point, the SPY and QQQ had only retraced about half of their morning gap before beginning a long, slow rally that lasted the rest of the day.  On the other hand, DIA continued to sell until almost noon, at which point it had recrossed the morning gap up.  Then DIA followed the other two majors with a very modest afternoon rally getting back up into the middle of the gap.  This action gave us a white-bodied Hammer that bounced up off the T-line (8ema) in the SPY and QQQ, as well as a black-bodied Spinning Top that bounced up off the T-line in the DIA. Both the SPY and QQQ crossed back above their 50sma. This all happened on well-below-average volume (far-below in the DIA) in the major index ETFs. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+1.04%) and Communication Services (+0.96%) leading a broad rally while Energy (-0.82%) was the only laggard in the red.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.66%, DIA gained 0.25%, and QQQ gained 1.18%.  VXX fell another 2.35% to close at 20.78 and T2122 climbed again but remained in the mid-range at 37.21.  10-year bond yields climbed up to close at 4.294% while Oil (WTI) fell just a couple of pennies from Friday’s close to close at $87.31 per barrel. So, on balance, the bulls won the day again and the breadth has improved in the last few days.  (For example, 302 of the S&P500 were in the green Monday.)  However, the breadth is starting from a very low level and, as an example, only 158 of the S&P500 were up more than the SPY itself.  (TSLA did a lot of lifting in both the SPY and QQQ on its +10.09% day.)  DIA remains the weak link and laggard. 

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, the NY Fed released the results of its August Consumer Sentiment survey.  The bank said that respondents now see slightly higher inflation a year from now compared to the July survey.  August showed 3.6% is expected in a year while 3.5% was expected a year out in July.  When looking out three years, the average expectation fell slightly from 2.9% in July to 2.8% in August.  For the five-year horizon, consumers expect 3.0%, which is up slightly from the 2.9% 5-year-out expectation in July.  Elsewhere, a Commissioner for the CFTC proposed the creation of a national database (hard to believe one does not yet exist) where investors and law enforcement can research past fraud convictions and civil fines from agencies for financial misconduct.

In stock news, early Monday QCOM announced it will continue supplying AAPL with 5G chips for its phones and tablets until at least 2026.  Previously, the deal was set to end at the end of 2023 and AAPL purchased the INTC modem business in 2019 with the expectation they could replace QCOM with internally-made modems.  Later, STLA announced that is has teamed up with an investment firm to begin the third phase of its share buybacks (which is part of the $1.5 billion buyback program announced back in February).  This round of buybacks will be comprised of roughly $537 million.  At about the same time, BA announced that Vietnam Airlines committed to order 50 of the company’s 737-8 jets for $7.8 billion during President Biden’s post-G20 Summit visit to their country.  At the same time, back in the US, SJM announced an agreement to acquire TWNK for $5.6 billion ($4.6 billion plus $1 billion in assumed debt).  Elsewhere, DIS and CHTR (second-largest cable operator) reached a deal midday, ending the service disruption that was impacting CHTR customers.  (Despite media predictions of this contract dispute potentially changing the industry, it looks as if that was much more hype than reality.)  In the mid-afternoon, EVGO announced it had received the first batch of 350kw fast chargers from DLTEF.  After the close, analysts say that TSLA’s huge 10% gain was fueled almost completely by industry reports that TSLA’s new “Dojo” supercomputer could add $600 billion in market value by helping speed up the move into robotaxis and software services.  In response, stock analysts from JPM, MS, and others raised their TSLA target prices and the stock exploded higher.  After the close, GE announced it would sell its 32.4 million share stake in AER via an underwritten public offering.  (The deal is worth $2 billion at AER’s closing price.)  GE had previously sold 18 million shares of AER in March.  Also after the close, UPS said it expects its new contract with the Teamsters to increase its wage and benefit costs by 3.3% annually over the life of the contract, which expires July 31, 2028.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a US federal judge ruled against the motion by META, ruling that the company must face a lawsuit claiming they have violated the medical privacy of patients.  At least 664 Hospitals and clinics had let META collect Pixel tracking data, which was then sold to advertisers by META like all other tracking data. In a follow-up to an earlier report, RTX took a $3 billion charge and told airline customers that an average of 350 of EADSY (Airbus) jets will need to be grounded each year (with a maximum of 650 at one time in 2024).  This is needed in order to remove the Pratt & Whitney (owned by RTX) engines to check for a metal flaw in internal engine parts.  RTX estimates 700 engines will need to be removed from jets to undergo a lengthy quality inspection and that process will last through 2026.  (A microscopic impurity was inadvertently introduced into the metal powder used to make internal parts of the engines, potentially causing engine failures when in operation.)  In COVID news, the FDA authorized COVID-19 vaccines from BFE/BNTX and MRNA. (A third vaccine from NVAX is still under review.)  The approval paves the way for the release of the two vaccines later this week.

After the close, CASY and ORCL both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Neither company changed forward guidance, although the ORCL quarterly guidance did disappoint by not raising after weaker than was expected cloud revenue for the quarter being reported.

In Autoworker contract talks or strike news, STLA said they plan to make a new offer to the UAW after the union made its own counteroffer on Sunday.  The UAW responded by saying they are ready to negotiate 24×7 until things get hammered out and that some progress has been made, but there is a long way to go.  For its part, STLA sent an email to employees saying the negotiations are on a good path and that many of the negotiating subcommittees had reached a tentative deal over things like health and safety concerns.  Elsewhere, industry analyst J.D. Power said they estimate that the production cuts from a strike against all three major automakers could raise new car prices by 1% each week the strike lasts.  They also say TM, HMC, and VLKAF (Volkswagen) could be winners from a domestic-maker strike.  However, JDP believes they would run out of inventory quickly as well amidst any significant-length strike.  (The current contract ends at midnight on Thursday night and the union has already voted to authorize a strike.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red but the biggest movers were on the green side.  Japan (+0.95%) and Taiwan (+0.85%) were by far the largest gainers.  At the same time, South Korea (-0.79%) and Hong Kong (-0.39%) were the leaders of the more numerous down exchanges.  In Europe, the bourses are more evenly split at midday, with six of the 15 exchanges in the green, led by Russia (+1.03%) while eight of the bourses are in the red, led by Finland (-1.11%).  The CAC (-0.06%), DAX (-0.32%), and FTSE (+0.52%) are typical of the spread and lead the region on volume as usual.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.28% open at this hour.  Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are flat at 4.29% and Oil (WTI) is up a little more than two-thirds of a percent to $87.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and WASDE Ag Report (both at noon), August Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report (4:30 p.m.).  In addition, SEC Chairman Gensler is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. There are no major earnings reports scheduled for Tuesday, either before the bell or after the close. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, August Year-on-Year CPI, August Month-on-Month CPI, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get August Month-on-Month PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, August Retail Sales, July Business Inventories, July Retail Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet. Then Friday, August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, August Year-on-Year Industrial Production, August Month-on-Month Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 12-month Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, CBRL reports.  On Thursday, we hear from ADBE, CPRT, and LEN.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled again.

In miscellaneous news, AAPL is expected to introduce another new iPhone (v15) today.  At the same time, the US vs. GOOG antitrust case gets underway.  This case accuses GOOG of using exclusive (or effectively exclusive) business contracts to stop competitive search engines from gaining or even maintaining any market share. GOOG is expected to counter by claiming the definition of search is too narrow and if you include searches on AMZN, the AAPL store, SPOT, DASH, and many others then it is possible to say GOOG does not have a search monopoly.

In last-minute stories, Bloomberg reports that Mexico has overtaken China to become the US’s largest supplier of goods (origination point of US imports). Interestingly, Mexico’s currency is the strongest-performing one in the world so far this year, which is saying something given the strength of the Dollar. The Mexican stock market is also one of the best-performing. Elsewhere in the world, Russia’s Putin traveled across his country to meet North Korea’s Kim Jung Un. Putin is desperate for more weapons for his so-far-failed invasion of Ukraine and North Korea has always been and probably will always be in desperate need of economic assistance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears want to test the Bulls resolve after a positive Monday. The SPY and DIA are both retesting their T-line (8ema) from above and the SPY is retesting its 50sma from above in this morning’s premarket action. All three major index ETFs are showing very small candles at this time. So, it may be a wait-and-see market or it could be that there is indecision early this morning. Either way, we are not seeing major volatility or move so far before the opening bell. The very short-term and mid-term trends remain bullish, but only just so in the short-term. (The previous short-term downtrend has been broken, but we have not yet proven we can hold above it. So, it is really a presumed resumption of the mid-term uptrend.) As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are very far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still sitting in the lower end of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the Bulls or the Bears to make a move. Again, it’s a matter of finding the buyers or sellers to get the move started.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a “much ado about nothing” day in the market.  All three major index ETFs opened flat.  Then they rallied to the highs of the day by mid-morning and slowly sold off, reaching the lows of the day at about 3:30 p.m. Finally, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all rallied modestly in the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed high-wick, Inverted Hammer type candles while the DIA printed more of a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  All three retested their T-lines from below…and failed that test, with DIA closing right at its T-line (8ema) while the other two closed below theirs.  The SPY and QQQ also retested their 50smas from below, with QQQ managing to close about a dime above its 50sma while the SPY filed its test.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.91%) out in front leading the way higher and Industrials (-0.45%) by far the biggest loser among the sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.15%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.14%.  VXX fell a bit over two percent to close at 21.27 and T2122 climbed up out of the oversold territory to the lower end of the mid-range at 29.33.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to close at 4.258% while Oil (WTI) gained another half of a percent to close at $87.33 per barrel.   This all happened on far-below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, on balance, the bulls won the day.  However, there was not a lot to feel good about for the Bulls with those upper wicks and failures to clearly break through moving averages.  

For the week, all three major index ETFs printed black, Bearish Harami candles.  The DIA also fell through its weekly T-line (8ema).  However, both the SPY and QQQ retested their own weekly T-lines and passed that test, remaining above.  All three major index ETFs remain well above their weekly 50sma, with the SPY and QQQ far above.  Those latter two remain in a weekly PBO (potential J-hook in formation) pattern of a strong bullish uptrend.  DIA is in the same weekly pattern, but is in a much weaker (and possibly breaking or being challenged uptrend…depending on how you draw it).

There was no major economic news reported Friday.  However, to summarize Fed speakers during the week, we repeatedly heard something like there is no hurry to move and it may well be worth not hiking in September…but we are not declaring victory over inflation and it is very possible we may need to hike or otherwise tighten later.  This included Dallas Fed President Logan (normally more hawkish) saying late Thursday “Another skip could be appropriate … this month but my base case, though, is that there is work left to do.”  Another usually hawkish member, Fed Governor Waller came right out and said it earlier, “We can just sit (to see if inflation keeps trending in a downward direction).”  Meanwhile, other Fed speakers tended to tow the “let’s wait to see what more data says” line in their comments during the week.  For example, NY Fed President Williams said “It’s still an open question as we go forward.  Have we got sufficiently restrictive to achieve that (a 2% Fed inflation goal)?”  While this went on, as of the Friday close, Fed futures indicated that the market has priced in a 93% chance of no rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.  (That probability is up 7% from one month prior.)

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The US dollar completed an eight-straight week of gains against its peers on Friday.  Elsewhere, a Fed report Friday showed that US household wealth jumped to a record in Q2, increasing 3.7% to $154.3 trillion.  This included a $2.6 trillion increase in US household equity holdings, while the value of their real estate rose just $2.5 billion in the quarter. Of course, the wealth gap continues to widen with most of than wealth concentrated in the top 10 percent of American households. (Which, in part, helps explain the “woe is us” reports of credit card debt climbing and people living paycheck-to-paycheck at the same time wealth is at record levels.)

In stock news, late Thursday night, an independent research group announced they had found a security flaw in AAPL iPhones that had allowed Israeli firm NSO to plant spyware on iPhones.  Then on Friday, ABG said it was buying private firm Jim Koons Automotive for $1.2 billion in order to expand its presence in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later, Bloomberg reported that BABA has decided to temporarily shelve its plans to IPO its Freshippo grocery chain due to poor performance in the consumer stock sector recently.  (BABA was hoping for a $6 billion – $10 billion valuation, but investment houses were advising roughly $4 billion would be achieved now.)  At the same time, Chinese auto market analyst CPCA announced that TSLA had more than doubled its Chinese market share in August thanks to significant discounts and tax breaks.  This allowed TSLA to return to unit sales growth for the month. Later, Reuters reported plastics and chemical maker COVTY has entered into discussions with suitor Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.  (In August, ADNOC had offered $12.4 billion for COVTY.)  Elsewhere, the Financial Times reported that the ARM IPO is already oversubscribed by five times (Reuters reported the number was more than six times oversubscribed) in the widely-watched tech IPO.  Later, SLTA announced it is expanding its battery production capacity by 60% globally.  No specific timetable was provided, but the company already has six battery plants under construction around the world and said there are more to come. At the same time, GNL shareholders approved a planned merger with RTL in an all-stock deal.  After the close, NKLA announced that one of its electric semi-trucks caught fire near company headquarters and that this was the second such incident in the last week.  Also after the close, GT announced they would cut 1,200 jobs in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, KR announced it will sell 400 stores to private firm C&S Wholesale Grocers for $1.9 billion in an effort to gain approval for its $25 billion acquisition of ACI.  Elsewhere, in Congress, the House announced it will be holding more AI hearings this week including testimony from the President of MSFT and the Chief Scientist of NVDA.  On the Senate side, on Tuesday they will also hold an AI hearing.  Separately, on Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Schumer is hosting a forum (non-hearing) intended to allow Senators and Congressmen to become more informed on AI matters.  These will consist of various industry presentations and Q&A sessions including one by META CEO Zuckerberg and TSLA CEO Musk.  At the same time, an FTC Administrative Judge ruled against INTU on Friday.  The ruling found that INTU engaged in deceptive advertising and deceived at least 4.4 million customers with ads claiming they were offering “free” tax products and services.  The ruling issued a “cease and desist” order, but no financial penalty.  Later KR announced they had agreed to a $1.4 billion settlement (paid over 11 years) to resolve thousands (most) of outstanding lawsuits by US states and local governments over opioid distribution.  This included $1.2 billion going to states, $177 million in attorney fees, and $36 million to Native American tribes.  In the afternoon, a US federal judge ruled META must face a lawsuit claiming it violated the medical privacy of patients who used medical facility websites that included a META Pixel tracking tool.  The judge ruled against META’s motions to dismiss the case.  In the afternoon, the FDIC released a report saying the agency should have been more aggressive in its policing of the risk management of FRCB prior to its failure in May.  (It said it was unclear if this could have saved the bank given the speed at which depositors pulled their money out of the bank.  However, it should have done more and sooner.)  After the close, the NHTSA cited inadequate inspections as the cause of a UAL 2021 jet engine failure.  Soon after the failure, the FAA ordered immediate inspections of all BA jets with RTX-made Pratt & Whitney 4000 engines.

In Autoworker contract talks or strike news, on Friday, STLA offered the UAW a 14.5% wage increase over four years.  This is far short of the UAW’s desired 46% increase and a reduction to a 32-hour work week.  Previously, GM offered a 10% immediate raise, followed by two other 3% increases over the four years.  The week before, F had offered 9% increase over four years along with a 6% lump-sum one-time payment.  The UAW contract with all of the “Big 3” automakers ends Thursday night at midnight.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Shenzhen (+0.98%), India (+0.89%), and Shanghai (+0.84%) paced the gains.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (-0.86%), Hong Kong (-0.58%), and Japan (-0.43%) paced the 5 (or 12) down exchanges.  However, in Europe, we see nearly green across the board at midday.  Only Russia (-0.82%) is in the red while the CAC (+0.42%), DAX (+0.34%), and FTSE (+0.06%) lead the 15 green exchanges higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.19% open, the SPY is implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.61% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.294% and Oil (WTI) is off by three-quarters of a percent to $86.89 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell.  However, after the close, CASY and ORCL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, WASDE Ag Report, August Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report.  Then Wednesday, August Year-on-Year CPI, August Month-on-Month CPI, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get August Month-on-Month PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, August Retail Sales, July Business Inventories, July Retail Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet. Then Friday, August Export Price Index, August Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, August Year-on-Year Industrial Production, August Month-on-Month Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 12-month Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday there are no major reported scheduled.  Then Wednesday, CBRL reports.  On Thursday, we hear from ADBE, CPRT, and LEN.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major earnings reports scheduled again.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the SEC approved a NASDAQ request to allow a new AI-driven order type.  The new M-ELO order type would use AI to speed up the matching of orders at the midpoint of the bid-ask spread.  The new order type, first proposed in 2018, would allow investors to trade with 10-millisecond waiting periods.  (This means these orders would fill about 20% faster, greatly reduce non-fills, and reduce required holding times by more than 11%.)  It was not mentioned, but this certainly seems aimed at high-frequency traders and the benefit of brokers. Elsewhere, the state of AK filed suit against the US Dept. of Agriculture, seeking to block the decision announced Wednesday that President Biden was reversing a Trump-era ruling allowing large swaths (9.37 million acres) of the Tongass National Forest to be opened for logging, mining, and oil exploration and production.  Biden’s order canceled dozens of oil and gas leases issued in the last days of the Trump administration. Finally, on Sunday, the now-former CEO of BABA resigned. (It was not long ago that he was “relieved” of CEO and Chairman duties to focus on the new BABA Cloud business.) The unexpected move riles BABA shares in China.

In late-breaking geopolitical news, over the weekend, President Biden and Indian PM Modi announced a new international transportation network project meant to rival China’s “Belt and Road” initiative at the G20 Summit.  The idea is to invest in infrastructure connecting Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.  Not only will US-based multinationals benefit, but it will make the US and India an alternative funding source (competitor) to help limit the increase in Chinese influence in the world (achieved through financing and then takeover).  In a separate initiative, on Sunday it was announced the Biden Administration and Saudi Arabia have jointly entered into talks with multiple African nations to secure ownership of various mining operations (mostly rare earth mines).  Under the joint deals being offered, the Saudis would buy the mines and the US would be guaranteed the right to buy percentages of those mine’s production.  (Implied, but unstated, is that US force would be there to ensure the security of the mines should anything of an Islamic or Wagnerian nature threaten them.)  Finally, there was a major 6.8 earthquake in Morocco Friday.  (This was made “more major” because the region was not built or prepared for such a disaster.)  So far, 2,400 are known dead and 300k are homeless.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to make another move this morning. All three major index ETFs are back above their T-line (8ema) in the early session. The SPY and QQQ are also back above their 50sma. However, with its black premarket candle, the DIA has, so far, failed a retest of its 50sma. This leaves the SPY, QQQ, and DIA all on the green side of flat at least at this point. The very short-term and mid-term trends are now bullish, but only just so in the short-term. (The previous short-term downtrend has been broken, but we have not yet proven we can hold. So, it is really a presumed resumption of the mid-term uptrend.) As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is sitting in the lower-end of its mid-range. So, there is plenty of slack for either the bulls or the bears to make a move…again, if they can find the buyers or sellers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday gave us another schizophrenic day with a gap in one direction and the market then trading in the opposite direction all day.  In this case, we gapped down 1.21% in the QQQ, 0.69% in the SPY, down just 0.11% in the DIA.  All three major index ETFs then traded sideways for an hour.  However, at that point, the Bulls stepped in to drive a slow, modest rally that lasted the entire rest of the day.  The SPY and QQQ climbed back up into the opening gap while DIA crossed its much smaller gap to close a little to the positive side.  This gave us white-bodied candles in all three index ETFs that could all be seen as larger-bodied Spinning top-type candles in the SPY, QQQ, and DIA.  QQQ ended the day testing its 50sma from below and DIA was just below its T-line (8ema) at the high of the day.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with only Utilities (+0.93%) by far the strongest while Technology (-1.13%) and Basic Materials (-0.97%) led the way lower. At the same time, the SPY lost 0.31%, DIA gained 0.20%, and QQQ lost 0.72%.  VXX was essentially flat at 21.71 and T2122 climbed but remained inside of the edge of oversold territory at 17.25.  10-year bond yields fell to close at 4.254% while Oil (WTI) dropped 0.81% to close at $86.83 per barrel. (That was Oil’s first drop in 10 days.)  This all happened on lower-than-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, the Bears had control at the open, but once they got their footing, the bulls were in charge of a tepid rally the rest of the way. 

The major economic news reported Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims which came in well below expectations at 216k (compared to a forecast of 234k and the prior week’s 229k).  At the same time, Q2 Nonfarm Quarter-on-Quarter Productivity came in at +3.5% (a bit below the +3.7% forecast but far better than the Q1 -2.1%).  In addition, Q2 Quarter-on-Quarter Unit Labor Costs rose 2.2% (far outstripping the +1.6% forecast but also dramatically lower than the Q1 +4.2%).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories followed Wednesday evening’s API data by showing a much larger-than-expected drawdown of 6.307 million barrels (versus a forecast calling for a 2.064-million-barrel draw but still far lower than the prior week’s 10.584-million-barrel drawdown).  Finally, after the close, the Fed reported that they reduced their Balance Sheet by another $20 billion from $8.121 trillion to $8.101 trillion.

In Fed and regulator news, on Thursday, the FDIC reported that US bank profits and deposits were broadly steady in Q2.  This suggested that the turmoil in the sector in Q1 had passed.  The report said industry profits in Q2 fell 11.3% year-on-year from 2022 to $70.8 billion.  (If the SIVB and SBNY failures were stripped out of the report, the rest of the sector increased profits by 5.7% in Q2 versus 2022.)  However, deposits declined for the fifth quarter in a row, down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter.  Elsewhere, the Senate confirmed the last open Fed Governor seat, approving Adriana Kugler (who is a labor market expert).  Later, NY Fed President Williams told Bloomberg “We’ve got policy in a good place, but we’re going to need to continue to be data dependent.”  He went on to say that it was an “open question” whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring the economy back into the proper balance of inflation and full employment.  After the close, Dallas Fed President Logan said that while it could be appropriate to skip an interest rate hike in September, more policy tightening may be needed before we reach the 2% goal.  She said, “Another skip could be appropriate when we meet later this month, … but skipping does not imply stopping.”

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, on Tuesday, SUM announced they have agreed to buy Columbian cement producer Cemento Argos for $3.2 billion in cash and stock.  (That deal would make SUM the largest cement maker in the US.)  Elsewhere, NWSA said it’s engaged in various negotiations with artificial intelligence companies over the use of content produced by AI.  At the same time, MGA (electric vehicle components maker) told an investors conference that it expects to roughly double its sales this year and double again by 2025.  Later, the CEO of CHTR said it was urgent to resolve its contract dispute with DIS.  (DIS has blocked CHTR customers from accessing DIS content, including ESPN during the highest-rated football season and CHTR is hemorrhaging subscribers as a result.)  In cost-cutting news, WMT announced changes to its entry-level store compensation plans to make cashiers, stockers, self-checkout helpers, department associates, and personal shoppers all receive the same hourly wage.  The move was meant to take advantage of a slowing job market (which I must have missed happening).  WMT did not specify the amount it expects the move to save.  Meanwhile, the CFO of BA said the company still expects to hit its annual 737 deliveries goal, despite a new production problem that has slowed deliveries of its bestselling 737 MAX.  However, he also said BA will be on the low end of its 400-450 jet target.  In other BA news, SPR told an investor conference Thursday that it has asked BA to absorb more of the financial pain caused by inflation and parts shortages.  The CEO told the conference that their contracts with BA are “not sustainable.”  (BA did not reply to Reuters requests for comment.)  At the same time, the CFO of RIVN told a GS conference that the company expects a significant decrease in the cost of battery materials during 2024, and will even see some of those effects in Q4 of 2023. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, AAPL suffered a second-straight terrible day after China banned the use of iPhones by government officials.  (This move by China is widely seen as both a signal to AAPL, which has recently been moving operations out of China and into places like India, and to the US government that it could ban iPhones altogether if trade wars continue.)  a three-judge federal appeals court panel revived a lawsuit against GM from a black safety supervisor.  The suit accused GM of racism and sexism that created a hostile work environment over complaints of workers displaying nooses and Confederate flags as well as using racial and sexist slurs toward herself and other black employees for a prolonged period without company sanctions.  At the same time, MSFT announced it would pay the legal damages that its customers might suffer if they are sued for copyright infringement for using the output of MSFT AI products.  The potentially legally risky plan could also be a marketing boon for its co-pilot assistant products.  At nearly the same time, MSFT also announced that it suspects Chinese-controlled social media accounts are already using AI to influence voters as the US prepares to enter the heart of the 2024 election cycle.  MSFT said they have made the US Dept. of Justice aware of its research findings.  (Screenshots of META’s Facebook and X, formerly Twitter were provided.)  After the close, Reuters reported that ZM has been in talks with the US FTC and EU, UK, and German competition regulators, outlining anti-competitive behavior by MSFT related to chat and video apps and bundling with MSFT’s dominant Office suite.

In Autoworker contract talks or strike news, GM offered a 10% immediate wage hike and two additional 3% increases over four years.  The offer also included a $5,500 ratification bonus (immediate) as well as $5,000 in potential bonuses over the life of the contract.  The UAW President quickly called it “an insulting proposal that doesn’t come close to an equitable agreement.”  He continued by implying the threat of a strike as of midnight on September 14.  Elsewhere, the UAW said it plans to deliver a counter-proposal to STLA Friday.  Meanwhile, F is taking a different tact, by giving 8,000 UAW hourly workers a $4.33/hour ($9,000/year) raise effective immediately (a week ahead of the expiration of the current contract and before a new contract has been agreed.  For what it is worth, analysts say a strike against STLA is the most likely thing to happen with a strike against GM and F held as negotiating escalation tools by the UAW.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board on a modest move day.  Only India (+0.47%) was in the green, while Japan (-1.16%), New Zealand (-0.72%), and Singapore (-0.58%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  Three of the 15 bourses are in the green.  However, the CAC (-0.09%), DAX (-0.41%), and FTSE (-0.09%) lead the way lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 4.254% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $87.48 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday.  The only major earnings report on the day is KR before the opening bell.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

After the close, DOCU and RH reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that DOCU raised its forward guidance.  This morning, KR was supposed to report at 7:15 a.m.  However, for some reason, they are delayed and have not posted results yet as of 7:45 a.m.  (Late, KR reported a miss on revenue and a beat on earnings. It has not posted any change to guidance yet.)

In miscellaneous news, traffic on the ChatGPT website fell for the third month in a row.  Since they are widely accepted as the leader in the AI space, this begs the question as to whether “AI mania” is subsiding or if this is just the result of numerous competitors diluting the ChatGPT market leadership.  Elsewhere, the Financial Times reports that GS will begin following the “Jack Welch at GE” plan, meaning they now have plans to fire 1%-5% of the GS workforce annually, based on performance evaluations. This “culling of the deadwood” would lead to 450 to 2,500 firings (and presumably replacement hires) each year. Meanwhile, CNBC did an analysis of just how much impact “shrinkage and theft” are really impacting retailer profits.  (The topic has been a major talking point among right-wing media and has even been cited as an excuse by some retailers to explain poor results.)  CNBC analyzed seven big retailers (TGT, M, DKS, LOW, FL, ULTA, DLTR, TJX, and WMT) balance sheets.  Contrary to the general narrative of the right, they found that inventory losses were only a small fraction of the retailer’s sales and “pale in comparison to other factors squeezing margins.”  (Those factors include “excessive” discounting and promotions.)  In fact, CNBC found that shrink is in line with the industry-standard losses over the last decade (1% – 1.5% of sales).  This suggests that despite individual well-publicized cases that are aided by ever-present video, “organized theft rings” and “people just feeling entitled to take ransack or take what they want” is not really more of a problem than it was a decade or two ago.  It just seems that way because companies are looking for excuses and one side of the political aisle wants to push the narrative that things are terrible.  (To be fair, this is certainly not exclusively a tactic of the right.  It has been said that there are only two themes to politics.  “Things have gone to hell, throw the bum out” and “You’ve never had it this good, give me another term.”)  The point is, that theft was mostly just a convenient excuse, taking advantage of one part of society that wanted to push a certain narrative, being used by companies to justify poor performance.

In geopolitical news, Bloomberg reports that India is currently studying its potential responses to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  The report says this comes after the US made discreet inquiries about how India might contribute in the event of war, which would result when the US steps in to defend Taiwan.  While this made news and is being reported as a “new study commissioned by India’s top military commander,” I have serious doubts whether that is entirely true.  Frankly, both Indian and the US military and political leadership would need to be completely incompetent if such a scenario had not been extensively studied and various responses discussed, over and over again.  The topic is probably revisited at least annually in each country. In fact, I would bet that the subject has been discussed between the militaries and between the political leaders of the two countries repeatedly over many years.  (At least ever since India started to think of itself as an emerging power in Asia.)  So, I suspect this is just a story leak meant to make news and apply a bit of pressure on China as the G-20 meeting gets going.  Still, it made Bloomberg’s top headlines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls tried to make a move in the premarket, but have sold off since that point. All three major index ETFs started the early session at or very near their T-line (8ema), but have since sold down to create black-bodied premarket candles. (QQQ has also done the same with its 50sma this morning.) This leaves the SPY, QQQ, and DIA just on the red side of flat as we get nearer to the open. The short and mid-term trends remain bearish with the long-term trend remaining bullish across all three major index ETFs. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is sitting just inside the top edge of the oversold territory. So, both sides have room to run, if they can gain the momentum to do so. Finally, don’t forget it’s Friday. Pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle. Hedge, lighten up, or get some insurance (options) to mitigate risk as you see appropriate.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service