Thursday was a volatile, up-and-down day in the market.  SPY gapped down 0.22%, DIA opened flat, and QQQ gapped down 0.45%. From there, all three major index ETFs slowly rallied to the highs shortly after noon.  Then they slowly sold off to the lows at 2:45 p.m.  Finally, all three rallied back towards the highs again to end the day.  This action gave us indecisive (more wick than body) candles in the top half of the prior day’s candle.  The SPY printed a white-body Doji.  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a black-bodied Hanging Man or Hammer type candle.  Finally, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Communication Services (-0.72%) leading the way lower.  On the other end of the spectrum, Energy (+0.88%) was far out ahead of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.18%, DIA lost 0.09%, and QQQ lost 0.11%. VXX gained 1.26% to close at 54.71 and T2122 fell back to the lower half of its mid-range to 37.58.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 4.067% while Oil (WTI) jumped another 3.21% to close at $75.59 per barrel. In summary, Thursday was just an indecisive “pause day” where most of the day was spent in the upper half of Wednesday’s strong bullish candle.  There was no new all-time highs or new all-time high closes.  However, SPY and DIA are withing spitting distance of both. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in significantly higher than expected at 258k (compared to a 231k forecast and the previous week’s 225k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 1,861k (versus the 1,830k forecast and the prior week’s 1,819k).  At the same time, September Core CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +0.3% (which was higher than the +0.2% forecast, but in-line with August’s +0.3%).  On the annualized basis, September Core CPI (year-on-year) increased a tick to 3.3% (compared to an August reading and forecast of 3.2%).  On the headline number, September CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +0.2% (versus a +0.1% forecast and in-line with August’s +0.2% value). Later, after the close, the September Fed Balance Sheet stayed dead flat for the week at $7.047 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterate that he foresees a series of rate cuts over the next year. Goolsbee said, “Over a 12-18 month period, I think we are going to gradually, whatever word you want to use, move to a steady state policy rate.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams said he too expects more rate cuts lay ahead.  Williams said, “Based on my current forecast for the economy, I expect that it will be appropriate to continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.” As usual, Williams indicated that all specific meeting decisions will be data driven.  He said, “the timing and pace of future adjustments to interest rates will be based on the evolution of the data, the economic outlook, and the risks to achieving our goals.” Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic seemed to indicate the Fed may skip a rate cut in November.  Bostic said, “I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate.”  He went on to say, “I think we have the ability to be patient and wait and let things play out a little longer…. There are elements of today’s report which I think validate that view.”

In stock news, on Thursday, NVDA held an “AI summit” to outline the advancements in its next generation AI chips.  In an attempt to steal some of NVDA’s thunder, AMD also announced its own next generation AI chip (to be available in Q4 and ship in quantity in early 2025) at an event at the same time.  (The problem for AMD is that NVDA offers a proprietary on-chip technology called CUDA cores and most AI software is written to take advantage of that technology. This means those users are locked into NVDA AI processors.  AMD is still building out its competing tech called ROCm.) NVDA stock was up 1.,63% while AMD (-4.00%) got hammered.  Later, GM announced they will be offering new home energy storage and solar collection products to EV customers (just as TSLA offers).

Elsewhere, UBS said integration of CS data into the UBS systems is on track after a test run. (UBS acquired CS in March 2023 to prevent the latter’s collapse.)  Later, in a novel excuse, DAL warned of lower revenue and blamed the Q4 forecast reduction on the presidential election, saying that people are avoiding travel so they can stay home to vote.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that TGI is exploring strategic options including a sale of the company. At the same time, SNY announced it had closed the sale of its consumer health unit for $16.4 billion (to a private equity firm). After the close, SEC filings showed that BRKB has now reduced its BAC holdings below 10% by selling another 9.5 million shares this week.  This sale netted BRKB $382.4 million.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the Consumer Product Safety Commission announced MAT is recalling 21 different models of infant swings after five reported suffocation deaths.  In addition, MAT is offering a $25 partial refund to those customers who just cut off the headrest and body support pad (offending parts) on their own.  (About 2.2 million of the swings were sold in North American between 2012 and 2022.)  At the same time, the US Justice Dept. announced that TD has plead guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering and will pay a massive $3.1 billion fine. TD will also be subject to an asset cap and other restrictions as part of the guilty plea.  Later, MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN (among others) have proposed an “alternative framework” for how data centers pay for power in OH.  This is a direct challenge to the AEP proposal that cryptocurrency miners and data centers prepay or offer other financial assurances for their massive energy needs. 

Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Justice announced that TEVA has agreed to pay $450 million to resolve allegation it used charities to help cover Medicare patient out-of-pocket drug costs as a way to pay kickbacks to boost sales of its multiple sclerosis drug.  (12 other drugmakers had previously settled over the same charges to the tune of $1 billion in fines.  However, the case against REGN remains pending.)  Later, a Philadelphi jury ordered BAYRY (Bayer) to pay $78 million to a PA man who had alleged he got cancer from using the company’s Roundup weedkiller.  At the same time, a US Bankruptcy Judge overruled the motion from the US Justice Dept., ruling in favor of LNJ which is now allowed to pursue a third attempt to get a bankruptcy judge to end tens of thousands of lawsuits over talc cancer risks.  (JNJ had “venue shopped” by filing the latest bankruptcy in TX after twice being denied by NJ bankruptcy courts.)  Later, following a decade of unfulfilled promised and missed deadlines, TSLA held an event Thursday night to unveil their robotaxi, which they dubbed “Cybertaxi.”

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the largest US power grid operator issued a warning over potential disruptions which may be caused by a massive solar flare. (The warning expired very early Friday morning.  Meanwhile, the Center for Disease Control said it had identified a cluster of 18 cases of MPOX (formerly Monkey Pox) that are drug-resistant across five states.  Elsewhere, the FTC finalized changes to a rule covering what information companies must turn over when seeking approval for proposed mergers.  Finally, Hurricane Milton appears to have killed 10 and left three million customers without power at one point Thursday.  However, the damage was much less than had been expected, with the bulk coming from flooding due to intense rain as well as 27 tornadoes spawn by the storm.  (After the close, DIS and CMCSA announced their theme parks in Orlando would resume operations Friday.)

In Middle East news, Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued Thursday.  Israel killed 30 in the bombing of a school/shelter in Gaza and dozens more in attacks on buildings in central Beirut. In addition, Israel injured two UN peacekeepers in a tank fire accident. (The peacekeepers have been in place between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon since 1978, following a previous Israeli invasion.)  In Europe, on the heels of France’s call for an arms embargo on Israel, Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador to make formal complaints over “unacceptable” actions in Southern Lebanon. 

In other war news, it was confirmed Thursday that Russia has attacked three civilian ships under foreign flag (not Russian or Ukrainian) that were carrying commercial grain shipments.  (None of the ships have been sunk.  However, they were damaged and this is an escalation from early in Russia’s invasion when it boarded, inspected, and/or turned back ships.)  In response, insurance rates on a $50 million ship increased by $125k per voyage in the Black Sea.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Shenzhen (-3.92%) and Shanghai (-2.55%) were far out front in terms of losses while Hong Kong (+2.98%) and Taiwan (+1.07%) were way out front leading the gainers.  In Europe, we nearly see green across the board at midday the sole exception of London.  The CAC (+0.10%), DAX (+0.19%), and laggard FTSE (-0.08%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures point toward a slightly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.098% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.71% to $75.29 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include September Core PPI and September PPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 1:10 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC as earnings season kicks into gear again. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, BK, BLK, JPM, and WFC show a clean sweep of beats on both the revenue and earnings lines by the big banks.  However, FAST missed on revenue even as it came in in-line on earnings.

With that background, markets are just on the red side of flat again at this point of the premarket. QQQ has the worst-looking candle and, even so, it is just a black spinning top inside the top half of yesterday’s inside candle. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator remains in the lower half of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (-6.01%) is getting hammered after a very unimpressive reveal of its robotaxi late last night. AMD (+0.96%) leads the gainers and for the first time in a long time, TSLA leads in terms of dollar-volume traded even on not heavy trading as NVDA (-0.01%) has EXTREMELY light, as in 10% of normal, volume in the premarket. This is very abnormal premarket trading. Don’t forget its Friday. So, prepare your account for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day flat, rallied into noon, and then traded sideways before rallying again the last 30 minutes.  SPY opened up 0.02%, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ opened down 0.06%.  From there SPY and DIA began their rally into noon.  QQQ pulled back for 20 minutes after the open, but then got in line and followed the other major index ETFs higher.  At noon, all three took a 3.5-hour break before rallying into new highs near the close.  They all would have closed on their highs except for profit taking the last 5 minutes.  This action gave us large, white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks in all three major index ETF.  SPY printed a new all-time high and closed at a new all-time high close.  DIA gave us a new all-time high close.  QQQ didn’t make it as far, only printing its highest close since July 16. (QQQ is just less than 2% away from its all-time high close.)  This all took place on below-average volume in SPY and QQQ and above-average volume in DIA. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+0.79%) leading but not way out ahead of other sectors.  Only Utilities (-0.62%) was in the red and lagged far behind all other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.69%, DIA gained 1.01%, and QQQ gained 0.79%. VXX fell almost 2.5% to close at 54.03 and T2122 climbed a bit, but remains in its mid-range, at 68.36.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 4.073% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.38% to close at $73.28 per barrel. In summary, it was the Bull’s market from the open of the session.  A flat start across the board led to a strong morning rally.  This was followed by an afternoon pause, but the Bulls came back for the last 30 minutes to drive us back to new highs.  It is worth noting that the September Fed Meeting Minutes were a nothing burger.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in with a larger inventory build than expected at +5.810 million barrels (compared to a +2.000-million-barrel forecast and ever versus the prior week’s +3.889 million barrels). 

As mentioned, we also got the September FOMC Meeting Minutes in the afternoon on Wednesday.  They really revealed nothing that was not know from Fed Chair Powell’s post-decision press conference and other Fed member statements since.  It said that Fed members “were divided” on whether the rat cut should have been a half percent.  (That said, the most hawkish FOMC member, Fed Governor Bowman, was the only voter to vote against the half-percent cut.  She said she preferred a quarter-point cut instead.  In fact, the minutes said “a substantial majority” of Fed members backed the half-percent cut.)  The minutes said, “Some participants observed that they would’ve preferred a 25-basis-point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.” Later, the minutes said, “Participants emphasized that it was important to communicate that the recalibration of the stance of policy at this meeting should not be interpreted as evidence of a less favorable economic outlook or as a signal that the pace of policy easing would be more rapid than participants’ assessments of the appropriate path.”  The bottom line is that FOMC members believed the economy remains in good shape and are confident inflation is falling toward the 2% target.  The minutes showed the division was not over any data in-hand, but rather about their forecast of the future economy. 

In other Fed news, on Wednesday, Dallas Fed President Logan said she supported last month’s half-point rate cut.  However, she said she also wants smaller cuts in the meetings ahead given remaining upside risks on inflation and “meaningful uncertainty” over the economic outlook.  She said, “Following last month’s half-percentage-point cut in the fed funds rate, a more gradual path back to a normal policy stance will likely be appropriate from here to best balance the risks to our dual-mandate goals.”

In stock news, on Wednesday, TSLA announced that its sales of China-made vehicles were up 19.2% in September (year-on-year) in China.  (For reference, the Chinese EV maker BYD, which is TSLA’s main competitor reported a 45.56% increase year-on-year in September.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that TSLA’s robotaxi will have two front seats and gull-wing doors.  The report also said TSLA CEO Musk is expected to “discuss “Full Self-Driving” software assistance from TSLA semis soon. Later, META announced it is expanding the availability of its AI chatbot (META AI) to 21 new markets, including the UK and Brazil in efforts to compete with OpenAI’s ChatGPT.  At the same time, EADSY (Airbus) reported that its plane deliveries fell 9% in September to 50 compared to the same month in 2023.  (This comes a day after BA reported just 33 planes delivered last month.)  Later, Bloomberg reported that the CEO of STLA is planning on making major management changes as he faces heavy pressure.  The report said, CEO Tavares’ plan (offered to the board to save his job at a two-day meeting this week) could affect finance teams, regional heads and brand executives among others.  After the close, CNBC reported that AMZN is now testing full-automated mini-warehouses for Whole Foods stores.  The move is intended to let customers pick up orders at the checkout and reduce shopping time.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, NVAX received European Commission approval for its latest version of COVID-19 vaccine which targets the currently predominant JN.1 strain of the virus.  The authorization was for individuals 12 years and older throughout the EU.  At the same time, BIIB’s flezartamab antibody treatment received the FDA’s “breakthrough therapy” designation.  BIIB said the drug will now begin late-stage trials. Later, the NHTSA announced that HMC is recalling 2 million cars and SUVs over a steering issue that can increase the risk of crashes.  (!.7 million of the vehicles are in the US with the remainder in Canada and Mexico.) 

Elsewhere, the FTC announced that MAR and its subsidiary HOT have agreed to put in place an information security program to settle charges related to several data breaches (affecting 344 million customers) between 2014 and 2020.  Separately, MAR agreed to pay a $52 million penalty to 49 states and the District of Columbia over the same issue.  Later, GSK has settled 80,000 Zantac cancer-related lawsuits for $2.2 billion.  The settlement, reached with 10 class-action law firms represent 93% of the company’s pending Zantac suits.  GSK also announced it would pay $70 million to settle a related whistleblower lawsuit.  At the same time, SMNEY (Siemens Energy) filed a lawsuit against Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum trying to recover about $200 million from a promissory note that is in default.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday evening Hurricane Milton came ashore as a Category 3 storm, making landfall just south of Tampa Bay in Bradenton to Sarasota, FL. As of this morning, millions of residents and an unknown number of businesses are without power.  However, the worst is past as the storm crossed the peninsula and headed back out to sea after crossing Florida.  Ahead of the storm, the disgraced ex-President and MAGA minions continue to spread lies, distortions, and misinformation related to FEMA, responses, conspiracy theory-based motives, available money, and everything else.  It got so bad that even some GOP members have broken ranks to try to correct the lies and limit the damage. Elsewhere, in China, President Xi Jinping seems to have gotten the message after two days of fierce selling in Chinese markets. The stimulus package announced Monday fell flat as it came in 1/15^th of what had been expected.  So, the Chinese government announced it will hold a briefing Saturday on fiscal policy that is intended to buttress growth.

In Middle East news, Israeli campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza continued Wednesday.  Israel sent thousands of additional ground troops into Lebanon during the day. In addition, Israeli air strikes in a Gaza refugee camp killed dozens. At the same time, the first Israeli civilian deaths (two of them) were reported in Northern Israel after 90+ (per BBC, I’ve seen other numbers) retaliatory Hezbollah rockets were fired into that area.  At the political level, Israeli PM Netanyahu got the phone call he had demanded with President Biden (before allowing his rival to travel to the US), who told him to limit civilian casualties.  This call will likely clear the way for Netanyahu’s (rival and) Defense Minister Gallant to travel to the US to discuss the Israeli retaliation for last week’s 180-missile Iran strike.  Meanwhile, Israel again warned Lebanon they will “fall into the abyss of a long war that will bring destruction and suffering similar to what we see in Gaza,” implying they could avoid this fate by getting rid of Hezbollah.  (Presumably, this PR stunt would mean he wants the Christian, Druze, and Sunni Lebanese to start a Lebanese civil war and take over from Israel…in the middle of the Israeli invasion and bombing campaign. That seems a lot like demanding a unicorn. It also sounds like “Don’t make me hurt you…see what you made me do.”)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green as the Chinese promise of a Saturday meeting to explain fiscal policy and how it will prop up their economy stopped the bleeding in Chinese markets.  Shenzhen (-0.82%) was the only significant loser in the region while Hong Kong (+2.98%) and Shanghai (+1.32%) led the gains.  In Europe, the bourses lean toward the red side at midday with 11 of 14 exchanges below break-even.  The CAC (-0.22%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.25%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a slightly red star to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.092% and Oil (WTI) has popped 1.3% to $74.18 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, and September CPI, (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams (11 a.m.). The no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to DAL and DPZ. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, SVNDY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, DAL reported missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets are just on the red side of flat at this point of the premarket. SPY opened the early session flat and has traded slightly lower. QQQ opened premarket lower and traded down before recovering. Meanwhile, DIA gapped a bit lower and has put in a white candle in the early session to also recover. All three major index ETFs are above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs. (SPY and DIA both printed new all-time high closes again Wednesday.) With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator remains in the mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning. TSLA (+1.15%) leads the three gainers while AAPL (-0.33%) is at the head of those headed lower. The biggest dog, NVDA (-0.14%) is barely ahead of TSLA in terms of the dollar-volume traded. This is abnormal (at least for the last year or so) and not the common state of recent bullish moves by the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a drift higher across the market after the opening bell.  SPY gapped up 0.47%, DIA gapped up 0.21%, and QQQ gapped up 0.52%. From there, both SPY and QQQ followed-through with a rally that lasted until 10:50 a.m.  Then, those two major index ETFs ground sideways in a small range until 1 p.m. when a new steady rally kicked in.  For its part, after the open, DIA immediately recrossed the gap and chopped sideways for the first hour. Then, it drifted slowly higher the rest of the day.  This was broker by slight profit-taking the last minutes of the day in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us a large white-bodied candle in the SPY that recrossed above its T-line (8ema) and closed while testing its short-term downtrend line. (SPY also missed another all-time high close by just 65 cents.)  At the same time, QQQ printed a large, white-bodied candle that crossed back above its T-line as well as its short-term downtrend line.  For its part, DIA was the weakest of the three, giving us a white-body Spinning Top Bull Harami type candle that closed right at a retest of its T-line but did not get up to retest the short-term downtrend line.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.    

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.31%) far out in front (by 0.68%) of the rest of the group. On the other side, Energy (-2.30%) was by far the biggest mover and biggest loser. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.95%, DIA gained 0.28%, and QQQ gained 1.49%. VXX fell 4.04% to close at 55.39 and T2122 climbed to the other side of its mid-range at 51.26.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell slightly to close at 4.018% while Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.24%, ostensibly on somewhat reduced Middle East war fears, to close at $73.89 per barrel.  So, while there was no major driver for the rally Tuesday, Fed members generally leaning toward quarter-point cuts and a “no news is good news” feeling surrounding expansion of the conflicts (i.e. the next Israeli attack on Iran and perhaps Yemen also) led the Bulls to a modest gap up and then a drift higher.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to August Exports, which were up to $271.80 billion (compared to the July value of $266.60 billion).  On the opposite side, August Imports were down a bit to $342.20 billion (versus July’s $345.40 billion reading).  This resulted in an August Trade Balance of $70.40 billion (compared to a forecasted -$70.10 billion but down from July’s -$78.90 billion).  Then, after the close, API Weekly Crude Stocks came in with a much bigger inventory build than anticipated at +10.900 million barrels (versus a forecasted +1.950 million barrels and the previous week’s 1.458-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler made a case for more rate cuts. She said she had agreed with the half percent cut in September and feels more should come.  Kugler said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.”  She continued, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Meanwhile, NY Fed President Williams indicated the Fed was “well positioned” and said he supported quarter-point cuts moving forward, saying that the FOMC Dot Plot (which calls for two quarter-point cuts by year end) is a “very good base case.”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said, “The labor market … is certainly slowed down, but is not slow.”  However, Bostic also said, “We have to get it back to that 2% target,” … “(Referring to inflation) It’s too high … That’s still quite a ways to go and I want people to understand that I’m still laser-focused on the inflation target.” 

At the same time, Boston Fed President Collins indicated there are more cuts to come.  She said, “Further adjustments of policy will likely be needed.”  She continued, “I will stress that policy is not on a pre-set path and will remain carefully data dependent, adjusting as the economy evolves.”  Collins also said, “It will be important to preserve the currently healthy labor market conditions,” noting that it would “require economic activity continuing to grow close to trend, which is my baseline outlook.”  Finally, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson told a Davidson College event, “The FOMC has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal.”  He continued, “To maintain the strength of the labor market, my FOMC colleagues and I recalibrated our policy stance last month.”  In addition, Jefferson said, “Economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. Inflation has eased substantially. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.”  On inflation, he said, “I expect that we will continue to make progress toward that goal.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, NVDA announce that Taiwanese contract manufacturer Foxconn is building the largest production facility in the world in Mexico to assemble NVDA’s next generation GB200 superchips. At the same time, a regulatory filing shows that BRKB had sold more of its BAC shares, with total proceeds of its reduction now exceeding $10 billion.  However, BRKB still owns 10.1% of BAC shares.  Later, HON announced it will spin off its advanced materials unit via IPO.  BCS values that division at $11 billion.  At the same time, IT industry publication The Information reported that OpenAI is moving away from a MSFT datacenter focus in a bid for more independence as a way to get closer to ORCL who has its own datacenter unit. Later, BA announced it had delivered 33 jets in September, down from 40 in August, but up six from August 2023.  The company noted the impact of the mid-September strike of 33k Pacific Northwest BA workers. At the same time, AWK announced it had disconnected its computers following a “cybersecurity incident.”  The water utility said it had discovered unauthorized activity in its network on October 3.

Elsewhere, LYFT announced it is rolling out a number of improvements aimed at attracting more drivers.  Later, Reuters reported that GS has taken derivative positions equal to a 6.7% stake in UNCFF as of September 30.  Later, German company FMS said Tuesday it was working with the US FDA and HHS to boost production at its NC plant after direct competitor BAX suffered hurricane damage last week.  (Both companies are leaders in the IV solutions business.)  At the same time, descendants of the founders of PG lost a shareholder vote to oust company CEO Moeller and members of the board environmental sustainability committee.  After the close, S&P placed BA on a rating of “credit watch negative” as the plane maker’s strike drags on.  At the same time, Reuters reported BA is weighing options to raise cash by issuing new stock or stock-like securities.  Sources told Reuters the company hopes to raise $10 billion to assuage credit agency concerns.  Later, Unifor (the Canadian version of UAW) said it had started negotiations with CP.  At the same time, WOPEY announce it had completed the $1.2 billion acquisition of TELL.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the US Dept. of Justice will outline the actions GOOGL could take to restore competition in online search following an August court finding that the company is an illegal monopoly.  (This action plan may include the breakup of the company.)  At the same time, a Paris-based arbitrator ruled in favor of BP and prohibiting KOS from selling LNG from its Senegal project to other parties.  After the close, C filed a motion asking a US District Court to dismiss a suit filed by NY Attorney General James for lax security and failing to reimburse customers who fall victim to online scammers due to company deficiencies.  At the same time, the FAA issued a safety alert over BA 737 jet rudder problems, warning that the rudder could become jammed or only operate in a limited manner.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook said that US electrical power demand will reach a record 4,093 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024 and then another record of 4,163 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025.  (For reference, US demand was 4,000 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023.)  This breaks down into forecasts of 1,503 billion kWh for residential use, 1,412 billion kWH for commercial use, and 1,033 billion kWh for industrial user.  Elsewhere, the ports of Tampa and Sarasota closed Tuesday ahead of Hurricane Milton. Meanwhile, major freight terminals in SC, including the large one at Charleston, began implementing restrictions. 

In China news, markets were disappointed late Tuesday when the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission announced $28 billion of additional spending (stimulus) would be pulled forward into Q4 from 2025.  Analysts had expected the package to be a staggering $420 billion.

In Middle East news, Israeli PM Netanyahu barred his Defense Minister (Gallant) from making a scheduled trip to the US.  This trip was supposed to focus on coordination between Israel and the US related to the retaliatory strike on Iran.  Netanyahu has twice tried to fire Gallant in the last year.  So, tension between the two is fierce.  Still, r, there may be other political angles involved.  For example, Reuters reports Netanyahu is demanding a phone call from President Biden prior to sending his defense minister to the US.  (Perhaps as a vain show that he is the top dog and must be kowtowed to before actual work gets done.)  In addition, Netanyahu is also demanding that the War Cabinet approves his attack plans prior to the trip taking place.  (Again, so he gets his way and perhaps to prevent US input into the plan.)  There is also significant possibility that Netanyahu has US political motives.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China really pushing to the downside over disappointment about the stimulus details announced Tuesday night.  Shenzhen (-8.15%), Shanghai (-6.62%), and Hong Kong (-1.38%) were the big losers.  On the other side, New Zealand (+1.75%) and Japan (+0.87%) were the winners.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed but lean toward the green side with nine of the 14 exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.28%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTES (+0.29%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, the market is just on the red side of flat as of 7:30 a.m.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.02% and Oil (WTI) is off another 0.58% to $73.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and September FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.). However, we also hear from Fed members Bostic (8 a.m.), Williams (11 a.m.) and Daly 6 p.m.). The no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to HELE. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

With that background, markets look nearly flat at this point of the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks to recover almost all of the gap at this point. SPY and QQQ remains above their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has still not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. (SPY missed a new all-time high close Tuesday by 0.10%). With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split this morning with five on each side of break-even. The biggest dog, NVDA (+1.26%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, GOOGL (-0.96%) is the laggard of the group on that DOJ action plan report. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (-0.09%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down, ground sideways, sold off hard, and then ground sideways again on Monday.  SPY gapped down 0.28%, DIA gapped down 0.30%, and QQQ gapped down 0.41%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways not far from the open level for a while.  SPY and DIA started their next leg, a sharp selloff at about 11:30 a.m.  For its part, QQQ kept chopping sideways until 2 p.m. before it too sold off even faster. All three reached the lows of the day at about 3 p.m. before drifting sideways with a modest bullish trend.  This action gave us a black-body candle after an indecisive candle, which crossed back below its T-line (8ema).  All three also have wicks on both end of the candles.  This happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.   

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.91%) way out front (by almost three-quarters of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+0.37%) held up almost a half percent better than any other sector.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.90%, DIA lost 0.90%, and QQQ lost 1.07%. VXX spiked 8.91% to close at 57.72 and T2122 dropped to the bottom side of its mid-range at 44.66.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields popped up over 4% to close at 4.02% while Oil (WTI) spiked another 3.98% on Middle East fears to close at $77.33 per barrel.  (So, WTI has spiked 14.3% over 7 trading days on Israeli versus the region fears.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit which came in at $9.93 billion (compared to a forecast of $11.80 billion and hugely below July’s $26.63 billion reading).  On one hand, this means US consumers are likely in better shape, having less installment debt. However, it also means consumers were not out spending, which could indicate lower consumer confidence.  Either way, it should be read as bearish for the US Dollar.  (And things that are bearish for the Dollar are, by definition, bullish for commodity prices.)  Still, it is worth noting that Consumer Credit figures have always been subject to sizable revisions due to a lack of reporting uniformity or requirements.

In Fed news, on Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari seemed to say the same thing Chicago Fed President Goolsbee had said on Friday. Namely, the Fed liked the strong September Labor report.  Kashkari said, “It looks like it is still a strong labor market…it’s really good news as we want to keep a strong labor market.” He went on to say, “The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation towards maybe higher unemployment.”  … “So that’s a really good fact that the job market has stayed strong while inflation has come down.”  Then early Tuesday, Fed Governor Kugler said she had supported the half-percent rate cut in September.  She said, “While I believe the focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2%, I support shifting attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate as well.” She did go on to note the better-than-expected Payrolls report from Friday and said she now supports a “balanced approach” to future cuts, saying, “The labor market remains resilient, but I support a balanced approach to the FOMC’s dual mandate so we can continue making progress on inflation while avoiding an undesirable slowdown in employment growth and economic expansion.”  Later, NY Fed President Williams had an interview with the Financial Times in London.  Williams said, “The current stance of monetary policy is really well positioned to both hopefully keep maintaining the strength that we have in the economy and the labor market, but also continuing to see that inflation comes back to 2%.” He defended the larger half-percent first cut, saying it was “right in September and right today.” Williams went on to say that the Fed’s Dot Plot (which shows two additional quarter-point rate cuts this year) is a “very good base case.”

In stock news, on Monday, APD surged on reports that activist investor Mantle Ridge had taken a more than $1 billion position.  This set off a chain reaction, including two analyst upgrades.  (APD ended the day up 9.52% after a 7% gap higher at the open.)  At the same time, SRRK announced positive results from its Phase 3 clinical trial for its apitegromab treatment for muscular atrophy. (SRRK gapped up 254% and closed out the day at +361.99%.)  Later, Reuters exclusively reported that UL will invest more than $165 million to improve its European supply chain.  In addition, UL sources said the company’s European homecare unit will increase R&D and promotion spending by 40% in 2025. (No dollar figure was given.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that GOOGL’s share of the $300 billion search market is under pressure from AI rivals and other platforms like TikTok offering native Internet search functions.  WSJ reported that GOOGL’s share of that market is expected to end the year at below 50% for the first time in more than a decade. 

Meanwhile, AMZN’s share of that market is expected to reach 22.3% this year.  Later, GM announced it had restarted production at assembly plants following the hurricane-related supplier shortages.  At the same time, CVX announced it is selling its Athabasca oil sands and Duvernay shale assets to CNQ for $6.5 billion (all cash).  CVX expects the deal to close Dec. 6.  (Those two resources produced 84k barrels of oil per day in 2023.)  Later, EQNR announced it had bought a 9.8% stake in Danish offshore wind farm developer ORSTED for $2.5 billion. At the same time, Reuters reported that activist investor Starboard Value had bought about a $1 billion stake in PFE.  (PFE gapped higher on the news and closed near the opening level, up 2.17%.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the US Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by UBER and LYFT, which were seeking to avoid lawsuits from the state of CA on behalf of drivers.  (The drivers had been forced to sign agreements to keep legal disputes in arbitration rather than court.)  Later, a Seattle-based US District Judge unsealed his Sept. 30 ruling that the FTC case against AMZN for antitrust violations will proceed to trial.  (It is worth noting that a few of the co-plaintiff states, namely NJ, PA, MD, and OK, had their claims dismissed.)  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $965 million in arms to Romania and Italy.  RTX is the maker of the $285 million of arms sold to Romania while BAESY produced the $680 million sold to Italy. Later, a US District judge ruled that GOOGL must offer alternatives to its Google Play store for downloading and paying for apps on Android phones on antitrust grounds.  (The order restricts GOOGL from paying phone makers to preinstall the Google Play store or from sharing Play store revenue with other app distributors.) For its part, GOOGL immediately vowed to appeal the decision.  

Elsewhere, STLA filed eight additional lawsuits against the UAW union, alleging the union violated its labor contract by threatening to strike over the company’s delaying of investments it promised in the contract. Later, a group representing drug compounders sued the FDA over its decision to remove LLY’s bestselling weight-loss and diabetes drug from the “shortage list” last week. Thereby hurting drug compounder’s ability to sell their own version of the drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. The suit alleges that those drugs are still in short supply.  (If left on the list, it would require rationing of the drugs by LLY to any given buyer and give generic compounders a leg-up since they are not bound by the list rules.)  Finally, Mexico’s antitrust regulator made a preliminary finding Monday saying that GPAGP (tortilla-maker Gruma) holds unacceptable price-fixing power in the corn tortilla market in Mexico.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the CBOE announced it will list “hedged ADRs” that Us investors can use to buy foreign-listed stocks while limiting impacts from any currency fluctuations. Initially, these will include ADRhedged offerings for AZN, HSBC, and SHEL.  However, 14 other hedgedADR offerings will follow quickly.  Elsewhere, Hurricane Milton quickly went from Category 3 to Category 5 Monday.  This caused at least one oil and gas platform (owned by CVX) to shutdown.  Meanwhile, some FL ports have also begun restricting navigation or planning for Tuesday closure.

In Middle East news, Yemen’s Houthi rebels got in on the Middle East fighting again on Monday.  The Houthi claim to have fired two missiles at Jaffa, Israel.  (The IDF claimed to have shot down one of the two.)  Meanwhile, the Israeli bombing campaign in Beirut and Southern Lebanon as well as the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon continued. For his part, Israeli PM Netanyahu said they were fighting a “war of resurrection” and they are in the process of changing the security reality of the region and their attacks will not stop until all their goals are achieved.  Perhaps in response, French President Macron called on an arms embargo of Israel in the face of 42k Palestinians and more than 2,000 Lebanese killed in Israeli actions over the last year. With this as the backdrop, oil markets continue to reflect big fear over the threatened, and likely coming, Israeli retaliation to Iran’s recent 180 missile barrage.  (Analysts are speculating Israel will attack Iran’s oil infrastructure to damage its economic output and cause maximum pain to domestic.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed as China resumed trading after a week-long national holiday.  Mainland China remained “crazy strong” as they were right before their break with Shenzhen (+9.17%) and Shanghai (+4.59%) by far the biggest gainers.  On the other side, Hong Kong (-9.41%) and Japan (-1.00%) stood out among losers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see red across the board at 7:15 a.m.  The CAC (-0.64%), DAX (-0.22%), and FTSE (-1.15%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade on Chinese responses to the EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are essentially flat from the Monday close at 4.024% and Oil (WTI) is actually down 1.58% to $75.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes August Exports, August Imports, and August Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and API Weekly Crude Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, PEP reports.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

So far this morning, PEP missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  PEP also cut its full-year forecast, citing weakness in US snack sales and the repercussions from its Quaker Foods recalls in North America.

With that background, markets look modestly bullish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session roughly flat, but have printed white-bodied candles with tiny upper wicks at this point. SPY and QQQ have crossed back above in a retest of their T-line (8ema). However, the DIA has not quite reached its T-line yet. So, the short-term trend is back to modestly bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended from its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. The biggest dog, NVDA (+2.06%) leads that pack higher on both price move and volume. On the other side, INTC (-0.40%) is the laggard among that group. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA has traded 3.5 times the dollar-volume as next-closest ticker TSLA (+1.14%). This is typical for a bullish day in recent months.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw three moves by the market.  A gap higher, fading of the gap, and a long, protracted rally.  SPY gapped up 0.81%, DIA gapped up 0.58%, and QQQ gapped up 1.21%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off for more than an hour with SPY and QQQ not quite recrossing the gap, but DIA crossing all the way back below its prior close.  However, shortly after 10:30 a.m., all three began a slow, steady rally that lasted right into the last five minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive but bullish candles in all three.  SPY and QQQ both printed long-legged Doji type candles that gapped up through and retested from above (passing that test) their T-line (8ema).  At the same time, DIA gapped up through its T-line, retested its T-line from above, and printed a white-bodied Hanging Man type candle that also printed a new all-time high close.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+1.72%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Utilities (+0.23%) was the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.82%, and QQQ gained 1.19%. VXX fell 3.79% to close at 53.00 and T2122 popped up to just outside of its overbought territory to the top of its mid-range at 78.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields spiked to close at 3.969% while Oil (WTI) rose another 1.19% on Middle East fears to close at $74.60 per barrel.  So, the end of the US port strike and great September jobs data showing the economy isn’t falling off a cliff led to a gap higher. At that point the profit-takers ran for an hour.  However, the bulls stepped in to buy the dip and keep slowly buying all day long.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings (Month-on-Month), which came in down but better than expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but down from August’s +0.5% reading).  On an annualized basis, Sept. Avg. Hourly Earnings were up to +4.0% (versus the +3.8% forecast and August’s annual +3.9% number).  At the same time, September Nonfarm Payrolls were much stronger than anticipated at +254k (compared to +147k forecast and +159k Aug. value).  (It is worth noting that there were also upward revisions to summer payrolls numbers.)  On the private side, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also much stronger than predicted at +223k (versus a +125k forecast and August’s +114k number).  Meanwhile, the September Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (compared to a forecast and August reading of 62.7%).  Taken together, this gave us a September Unemployment Rate that fell to 4.1% (versus a forecast and August value of 62.7%).  So, the data showed us that the economy remains strong on the jobs side with growing earnings even as other data has shown inflation falling.  That’s as close to a soft landing (the so-called golden path) as you can get. However, the Bears and folks who think they know better than the Fed, saw the data as an omen of either no rate cut in November or at the very least “disappointing the market” with a lesser cut than was expected.  (That latter point overlooks that Fed members, including Fed Chair Powell, all but said were only getting a quarter-point cut in November.)

In Fed news, on Friday morning, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told Bloomberg the US jobs report was “superb.”  Goolsbee said, “You really couldn’t ask realistically for a better report for the economy, coupled with finding out that the (East Coast and Gulf Coast) port strike is not going to be an extended matter … those are two pieces of very good news for the economy.”  He continued, “If we get more reports like this, I’m going to feel a lot more confident that we are in fact settling in at full employment.”  Goolsbee went on to say there are even some signs that inflation will go lower than the FOMC’s 2% target. He went on to say that despite the strong jobs report, the Fed Funds rate is still far above what most FOMC members see as the eventual “settling point” and that it is appropriate for the Fed to bring the rate down “a lot” over the next 12-18 months.

In stock news, on Friday, rumors spread that APO is in advanced talks to acquire B for $45 per share.  (B gapped higher and closed up 12.98% at $45.26 on the news.) Later, TELL announced that shareholders have approved the $1.2 billion acquisition of WOPEY (Australian energy producer Woodside Energy Group).  At the same time, the BA and LMT joint venture (United Launch Alliance) announced it had successfully launched a second mission. (This is another step toward Dept. of Defense certification, which is required prior to carrying commercial contracts for national security payloads.)  Later, META announce two new services aimed at bringing in more young adult users.  The new “Local” and “Explore” tabs are currently being tested in various cities around the US.  At the same time, GM announced it had halted production at two plants (an SUV assembly plant and a truck assembly plant) due to the impact of Hurricane Helen on parts suppliers.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that GOOGL is experimenting with “verified” check marks in search results. (There is no word on whether or no GOOGL intends to monetize such a feature the way Elon Musk did with the former Twitter.)  At the same time, UAW union workers at STLA’s Los Angeles parts distribution center voted in favor of strike unless the carmaker settled grievances related to company failures to make product and investments as promised in the most recent national contract with STLA.  Later, JNJ announced it will discontinue a mid-stage trial of its experimental pill for the prevention of dengue fever.  The company said this came after reprioritization of its R&D portfolio.  At the same time, Reuters exclusively reported that RIO is in talks to acquire lithium miner ALTM.  If the deal were closed, it would make RIO the third-largest producer of lithium in the world.  (Sources tell Reuters the deal would value ALTM at between $4 billion and $6 billion.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, Reuters reported TMO repeatedly broke FDA contamination rules at its plant that manufactures infant formula and RSV drugs.  The report cited documents from US FDA inspections.  (TMO makes RSV drugs for SNY and infant formula on behalf of AZN.)  At the same time, the NHTSA announced it has opened a probe into 260k F crossover SUVs over losses of braking due to a brake hose defect.  Later, COIN announced it will delist certain stablecoins in the European Economic Area by year end.  This move was in response to the EU’s landmark crypto regulatory framework which will be fully implemented by December.

Elsewhere, the EU voted to move ahead with tariffs (of up to 45%) on Chinese EVs. The contentious vote passed 10 to 5 with 12 abstentions.  Later, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal from SWBI (Smith & Wesson) to a $10 billion lawsuit brought by the Mexican government. The suit alleges the company and Interstate Arms Company aided and abetted gun trafficking.  At the same time, STLA sued the UAW union over strike threats stemming from the company’s plans to delay investments promise in the 2023 labor contract.  After the close, the FDA placed a lupus treatment from KZR on hold following the death of four patients, which showed common symptoms and three deaths came soon after administration of the experimental drug.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday night, the US port strike ended in a tentative deal over wages and benefits.  (The automation negotiations will continue with no further strike until January.)  Then Friday, Longshoreman resumed work at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.  This means the port shutdown lasted three days and typically it will take nine days (three days per day of shutdown) to fully recover cargo backlogs.  In France, the European Commission approved funds for the removal of 4% of the grape vines in that country.  Back in the US, estimates now indicate that economic damage from Hurricane Helene will reach $250 billion. However, the insurance industry says that only about $5 billion of that will be covered by policies.  As an immediate response is continuing, the disgraced ex-President and his conspiracy theorist minions (like Elon Musk) continue to sew doubt and deter people from using resources available to them by continually spreading lies, amplifying completely unfounded rumors, and distortions for their political gain.

In Fed prediction news, following Friday’s strong September jobs report, there was a huge shift in the implied probabilities of a November Fed rate cut.  Fed Funds Futures trades now bake in a 97.4% probability of a quarter-point cut at the November meeting with 2.6% betting on no change in rates then.  One week prior, 46.7% were expecting a half percent rate cut and 53.3% of trades expected a quarter point cut.  There were no trades expecting no rate change one week ago.

In Middle East news, Israel continued heavy airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon over the weekend.  (The AP reported more than 30 strikes in Beirut alone on Sunday evening.) The Israeli ground invasion of Southern Lebanon also continued. Reports indicate over 100 Lebanese killed and an unknown number wounded over the weekend alone. One-third of the Lebanese population are now refugees.  Israel confirmed 11 of the IDF ground forces have also been killed. This all comes as it appears Israel is preparing a retaliatory strike on Iran over the 180 missiles that country fired at/toward Israel last week.  From an oil market perspective, the majority of oil flows that has been disrupted or are threatened would go to China. However, if China can’t buy from Iran or the rest of the Gulf can’t ship to China due to war, it will end up buying from other sources.  This will allow US and other producers to sell at a premium.  WTI is up 10% in the last 10 days as of Sunday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with Japan (+1.80%), Taiwan (+1.79%), and South Korea (+1.58%) pacing the gains.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed at midday.  The CAC (+0.18%), DAX (-0.24%), and FTSE (+0.46%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.62% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields have spiked again to 4.002% and Oil (WTI) jumped another 2.5% on Israeli fears (continued bombing and invasion with threat of attack on Iran) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to August Consumer Credit (3 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (1:50 p.m.) and Bostic (6 p.m.). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get August Exports, August Imports, August Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and API Weekly Crude Stocks report.  We also hear from Fed member Bostic (12:45 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories and the September FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  However, we also hear from Fed member Bostic and Fed member Daly. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September Core CPI, September CPI, September Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet. We also hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, September Core PPI, September PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PEP reports. On Wednesday, we hear from HELE.  Then Thursday, DAL and DPZ report. Finally, on Friday, earnings season kicks off again in earnest as BK, BLK, FAST, JPM, and WFC report.

With that background, markets look bearish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped down to start the early session and have traded lower to retest their T-line (8ema) from above. However, all three are now trading above their T-line (8ema) at the moment. So, the short-term trend remains bullish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range (although just outside of overbought territory. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. However, the Bears have a little more slack and the Middle East situation in their corner. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are modestly in the red. AMZN (-1.71%) leads the losses while AMD (+0.49%) is holding up far better than the others. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.48%) has traded only 1.5 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.46%). This is typically a factor of three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a modestly lower open and Bearish morning.  SPY opened 0.09% lower, DIA opened down 0.17%, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. At that point, the Bears were in-charge across all three major index ETFs, driving a sharp selloff that reached the lows of the day at 10:15 a.m. in DIA and 11:20 a.m. in the SPY and QQQ.  From there, all three rode a slightly bullish roller coaster sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles with significant lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  Both of them crossed back below their T-line (8ema) and even retested (and passed the test) their 17ema. Meanwhile, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top with most of its wick on the bottom side of the candle.  It too retested its 8ema, but unlike the others, it stayed above its T-line.  This happened on average volume in the SPY and QQQ but above average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were red with Technology (-1.71%) WAY out in front (by nine-tenths of a percent), leading the rest of the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+2.02%) was the biggest mover and outperformed the other sectors by more than 1.5%.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.88%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 1.39%. VXX spiked 7.72% to close at 53.43 and T2122 dropped back to the middle of its mid-range at 54.67.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.735% while Oil (WTI) spiked on Middle East fears to close at $70.62 per barrel.  So, for the most part, the Bears ruled the morning (mostly on fears over the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s retaliatory attack over recent Israeli assassinations conducted in Iran).

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included September S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which was down but better than expected at 47.3 (compared to a forecast of 47.0 and an August reading of 47.9).  Later August Construction Spending was up but worse than expected at -0.1% month-on-month (versus a +0.2% forecast and the July -0.5% value).  At the same time, September ISM Mfg. PMI was flat, which was not as strong as predicted at 47.2 (compared to a 47.6 forecast and in-line with the August 47.2 reading).  On the jobs side, Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment Index was down to 43.9 (versus a 47.0 forecast and a 46.0 August value).  Related to costs, September’s ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index was significantly lower at 48.3 (compared to a 53.5 forecast and a 54.0 August reading).  Meanwhile, August JOLTs Job Openings were up at 8.040 million (versus a 7.640 million forecast and a 7.711 million July number).  Later, after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks were down a little less than anticipated at -1.458 million barrels (compared to the forecast calling for a 2.100-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s -4.339 million barrels). 

After the close, CALM and LW reported beats on both the earnings and revenue lines.  At the same time, NKE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, SLTA announced an extension of their halt in production of the Fiat 500e until at least November 1.  (The halt had initially been planned to end Oct. 11, but was extended three weeks amid slow electric vehicle sales.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that sources tell it that AAPL may need to turn back to China to supply iPhone components after a fire destroyed at Tata Group’s Hosur Indian iPhone component plant.  The weekend fire has caused what is being called “an indefinite production halt.”  Later, EQIX announced it has entered into a $15 billion joint-venture with the Singapore sovereign wealth fund and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to build a US data center. (The data center is expected to eventually scale to use 1.5 gigawatts of power.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that BA is looking to raise $10 billion by selling new shares.  Later, MSFT announced it has begun rolling out updates to its consumer Copilot software, giving it an AI assistant and a “more amiable” voice.  At the same time, GM reported that its Q3 new vehicle sales fell 2.2% due to fewer sales days in the quarter and lower consumer spending.  TM reported an 8% decrease for the quarter.  (F and STLA have yet to announce sales.) 

Meanwhile, CVS said it would be laying off 2,900 employees (1% of workforce) as part of a cost-cutting plan. The cuts will primarily be at corporate headquarters in RI.  Later, as with most competent companies, TM announced it had built extra inventory of vehicles and parts ahead of the US port strikes.  At the same time, SCHW announced that its long-time CEO Bettinger will retire on January 1, after 16 years at the helm.  He will be replaced current company President Wurster.  Later, CI, CVS, HUM, CNC, and UNH unveiled their 2025 Medicare Advantage plans.  The companies told Reuters that 83% of enrollees will have access to a $0 monthly premium plan.  At the same time, BRKB announced it had purchase full control of its Energy unit, buying the remaining 8% of stock for $2.37 billion. Later, JNJ announced it will invest more than $2 billion in a new manufacturing facility in NC for the production of biologic drugs and therapies. At the same time, CNBC reported that 500 SBUX locations have voted to unionize as talks between the union and company continue.  (The Starbucks Workers United union now represents more than 11k SBUX employees.) After the close, Bloomberg reported AAPL will launch upgrades to iPhone SE and iPad Air product lines in early 2025. At the same time, NKE withdrew its annual forecast and postponed its planned investor day when it reported earnings.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the CFTC announced BCS agreed to pay $4 million to settle civil charges that it violated US law and CFTC rules requiring accurate and timely reporting on swap transactions.  (BCS failed to report 5 million such swap transactions from 2018 to 2023.)  Later, a US district judge dismissed a shareholder suit against PTON.  The suit had alleged PTON defrauded shareholders by concealing how demand for its exercise machines had fallen as COVID vaccines became available and people were allowed to return to public life.  Later, the NHTSA announced that owners of 154k Jeep hybrid plug-ins should park the vehicle outside and away from buildings or other vehicles until recall repairs are completed. 

At the same time, the Fed announced it had terminated a 2013 enforcement action filed against C related to money laundering. (The enforcement action did not carry a fine but required process and documentations changes.)  In 2023, C announced it planned to split the offending unit from the rest of the bank in the second half of 2024.  At the same time, the NRLB issued a complaint against AAPL for allegedly violating employees right to organize or advocate for better working conditions by maintaining unlawful workplace rules.  (Among the alleged infractions were confidentiality, non-disclose, non-compete, employee misconduct, and off-time social media policies.  Among the prohibited topics were pay, discrimination, and promotion standards.)

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday evening, the state of MI announced the schedule resulting from a summer major MI State Supreme Court decision that raises the state’s minimum wage by 20% to $12.48/hour at the end of February.  (The first increase will the to $10.56 on January 1 and then to $12.48 on February 21.  It will increase again to $14.97 in February 2028 and then be followed by annual inflation adjustments.)  The court decision ruled that after 280k MI voters signed petitions calling for a ballot issue on the state minimum wage, the GOP legislature passed changes in 2018 and then proceeded to illegally water down the increases to insignificant levels.

In Middle East news, Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon continued, even as the Lebanese army had fled southern Lebanon.  Reportedly, 60 Lebanese were killed and an unknown number wounded on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Iran chose to take a retaliatory action for last month’s Israeli assassination of Hamas’ top negotiator in Tehran.  Iran fired about 180 missiles toward Israel Tuesday. Many of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense and US Navy anti-missile systems. However, a few Iranian missiles and a lot of missile fragments did hit southern Israel.  No casualties were reported since Israel had plenty of time to move the public to bomb shelters.  (The closest Iranian hit seems to have been a missile that landed within six-tenths of a mile from Mossad headquarters.)  Israeli PM Netanyahu immediately vowed that “Iran will pay” for its attack.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Japan (-2.13%) was well out front followed by South Korea (-1.22%) and Malaysia (-1.03%) leading the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as 11 of the 14 bourses are modestly in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.12%), DAX (-0.59%), and FTSE (+0.18%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.38% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.756% and Oil (WTI) has spiked another 3.62% on Middle East fears to $72.35 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAG and RPM.  Then, after the close, LEVI reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In overnight news, a chlorine chemical cloud in Atlanta has triggered a new series of shelter-in-place orders for that major city.  This is the fallout of Sunday’s fire at the BioLab chemical plant in Conyers, GA (25 miles Southeast of Atlanta).  Multiple counties have had such shelter-in-place orders since the fire, but now the impact is being felt in a major urban population center.  Elsewhere, early this morning, LLY announced it will build a $4.5 billion research, development, and manufacturing facility located near Lebanon, IN.

So far this morning, RPM reported a miss on revenue while also beating on earnings.  However, CAG reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets look indecisively bearish so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower and have printed mostly wick since that point. All three are now trading below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bearish. The mid-term trend remains bullish. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend in all three major index ETFs and they remain not far from their all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). In addition, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its mid-range. So, markets have room to run either direction, if either the Bulls or Bears can find momentum. However, the Bears have what momentum exists on the back of the Middle East situation and the US East and Gulf port strike. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are modestly in the red. AAPL (-0.58%) leads the losses while META (+0.18%) and NFLX (+0.12%) are holding up better than the others. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.35%) has traded only a little more than 2 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.31%). This is typically a factor of at least two to three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were flat most of the day with mid-afternoon volatility and a strong rally into the close.  SPY opened 0.16% lower, DIA opened down 0.10%, and QQQ gapped down 0.21%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in a tight range until 2 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off for 20 minutes, rallied back for 25 minutes, and then paused for 35 minutes.  Finally, the last 25 minutes of the day was a sharp rally into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with significant lower wicks.  SPY printed a Bullish Engulfing signal and closed at another all-time high close after retesting (and passing the test of) its T-line (8ema) earlier in the day.  DIA gave us a white-bodied Hammer that also retested its T-line and closed at another all-time high close.  Meanwhile, QQQ also retested (and passed the test of) its T-line while printing a white-bodied big-bodied Hammer type.  The happened on well-below-average volume in the QQQ, slightly below-average volume in SPY, and just above-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green again with Healthcare (+0.42%) out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Basic Materials (-0.57%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.53%) were the laggard sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.42%, DIA gained a slim 0.04%, and QQQ gained 0.27%. VXX dropped 2.35% to end at 49.54 and T2122 fell back to the bottom half of its overbought territory at 83.21.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.785% while Oil (WTI) remained unchanged to close at $68.19 per barrel.  So, for the most part, the first 4.5 hours of the day were a boring market. Then Fed Chair Powell spoke. Initially, the market sold on Powell telling us that more, smaller cuts lay ahead.  (Coming into Powell’s speech, 53% of Fed Fund Futures bets expected a half-percent cut in November.  Afterward, only 36% expect the half-point cut.)  However, the Bulls stepped in to buy that dip. This may have been a reaction to Powell saying the economy was fine, or it may have been a month-end or quarter-end push.  Regardless of the cause, stocks rallied sharply the last 20 minutes with two of three major index ETFs closing at new all-time high closes.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Chicago PMI.  This came in better than expected at 46.6 (compared to a forecast and August value of 46.1). 

In Fed news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Reuters he was open to another half-percent cut in November if upcoming data shows job growth slowing.  Bostic said, “A surprise to the weak side …. would pull me much further into really needing another dramatic move.”  He continued, “If the story is that inflation is continuing its drop and the labor market is staying strong, I think we have the luxury of being a bit more patient with rate cuts.” … “If, on the other hand, the labor market comes in much weaker, I think that would add urgency to this (rate cutting cycle).”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (in an interview with Fox Business) was even more definite in saying he feels quarter-point cuts are the way to go.  Goolsbee said, (With regard to monetary policy) “This is a process, over a year or more, that we’re trying to get the rates down to normal.”  He continued regarding the pace of cuts, saying, “(The Fed Funds rate) has got to come down a lot more than 25 basis points over the next 12 months. It’s going to be a lot of cuts.”

However, the headline speaker Monday was Fed Chair Powell, who spoke to the National Assn. for Business Economics.  Powell said, “Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance.”  He continued, “The path of future interest rates isn’t on any preset course. … It will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting.”  Related to current inflation, he said, “Disinflation has been broad based, and recent data indicate further progress toward a sustained return to 2 percent.” Regarding the strength of the economy in terms of Gross Domestic Income versus GDP, Powell said, “That’s been a downside risk that we’ve been monitoring … but there’s now no gap between the two. … That, I would say, removes a downside risk to the economy.”  Powell’s most widely reported remarks were “This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly. … We will do what it takes in terms of the speed with which we move.”  In discussion, Powell indicated that the FOMC’s base case is for two additional quarter-point cuts for the remainder of 2024.

In stock news, on Monday, STLA cut its 2024 profit forecast and warned it would burn through more cash that previously expected.  The company cited poor US sales and offering bigger discounts to revive US marketshare.  STLA said it now expects a negative cash flow of between $5.58 billion and $11.17 billion instead of positive cash flow.  At the same time, TPG announced it had acquired a minority stake in investment advisory Creative Planning for $2 billion.  Later, MMC announced it agreed to acquire private insurance brokerage McGriff Insurance Services for $7.75 billion.  At the same time, Reuters reported that PFE will sell 640 million shares in UK consumer healthcare company Haleon for about $3.25 billion. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that VZ had sold the right to lease, operate, and manage 6.339 mobile phone towers covering 50 states and Washington DC to Vertical Bridge.  The deal includes $2.8 billion in cash up front.  The company is expected to lease the towers back to VZ for 10 years with an option to extend up to 50 years.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that PEP is in advanced talks to buy private Siete Foods for more than $1 billion.  Later, the Teamster Union announced it had signed a tentative agreement with HTZ covering nearly 3k members.  (Union members had voted to strike if a deal was not reached Monday.)  At the same time, Reuters exclusively reported that CVS is considering strategic options including the break-up of the company.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, Russia fined GOOGL $38k (which I have a feeling will cost GOOGL more than that just to pay that paltry amount) for not removing content Russia deems illegal.  Later, a trial against ABT, RBGPF (Reckitt Benckiser), and St. Louis Children’s Hospital began Monday with jury selection.  The companies are being sued over severe intestinal illness that the suit alleges a baby got from premature infant formula he was given after birth.  (There are nearly 1,000 similar cases pending nationwide.)  At the same time, Epic Games filed suit against AAPL and Korea’s Samsung, alleging the pair conspired to protect the Google Play Store from competition.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce unveiled a new rule that could make it easier to ship AI chips to data centers in the Middle East.  NVDA is the primary winner from the new rule, but AMD and to a lesser extent INTC could receive some benefit as well.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced GM will pay a $1.5 million fine for failing to disclose details of an October 2023 crash involving one of its Cruise self-driving taxis. 

Elsewhere, BMY won the dismissal of a $6.4 billion lawsuit brought by CELG shareholders who had claimed that by delaying federal approval of the cancer drug Breyanzi, BMY had been able to acquire CELG at an artificially low price.  At the same time, the FCC reached a $31.5 million settlement with TMUS over issued related to significant data breaches of TMUS systems over 3 years.  Later, SEC filings showed that XOM, CVX, and COP paid $42 billion to foreign governments last year for oil and gas extraction rights.  This was about eight times what they paid the US government in 2023.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 194k Jeep plug-in hybrids over fire risk following 13 fire reports.  Later, CA Governor Newsom vetoed an AI safety bill after strong opposition from GOOGL, META, MSFT and others.  (TSLA had been a proponent for the bill.)  At the same time, EBAY won the dismissal of a suit brought by the US Dept. of Justice.  The suit alleged EBAY violated environmental laws by allowing hundreds of thousands of polluting and toxic products to be shipped to the US.  The judge ruled Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act protects EBAY from any liability over user content and the company had not materially contributed to the products. 

Meanwhile, the FCC announced it is investigating VZ for a service outage that affected thousands of user and left some in “SOS mode.”  (There were over 105k new outage reports at the peak and 30k new outage reports at of 5 p.m. Eastern.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice and SEC announced TD will pay more than $20 million to settle charges of US Treasury market manipulations using “Spoof” orders.  Later a federal judge ruled AMGN must face a class-action suit trial for waiting too long to tell shareholders it may owe $10.7 billion in unpaid taxes due to underreporting income for six years.  At the same time, a federal just dismissed a suit against TSLA and its CEO Musk, that alleged the company defrauded then by overstating the effectiveness and safety of the company’s self-driving technology.  (Even though he and the company had clearly lied about that for years, the judge ruled the plaintiffs had not proven they had directly said this would boost the stock price.)  Later, WMT announced that Mexico’s antitrust regulator will rule on the company’s liability for antitrust pricing and terms imposed on distributors and suppliers in the next few days.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday, the Dept. of Energy bought 6 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for $68.50/barrel.  The oil will be delivered at a rate of 1.5 million barrels per month from February – May 2025. Elsewhere, analysts now estimate the financial cost of Hurricane Helene may be $160 billion (well above the $95 billion to $110 billion estimated prior to the storm).   Meanwhile, Libyan oil production is set to resume in days after a political deal approved the appointment of an interim Libyan Central Bank Governor.  (This comes after a month-long shutdown of Libyan oil production.)  Finally, the East Coast and Gulf Coast port strike began at midnight.  (For reference, it typically takes three days to recover for each day of shutdown.)

In Middle East news, Israel began what it says is a “limited ground operation” invasion of Lebanon Monday evening.  The IDF said it has no plans for long-term occupation of Lebanon, but (as makes operational sense) gave no indication of goals or timeline.  At the same time, Israel also began bombing the southern side of Beirut.  This all comes after more than a million Lebanese have become refugees, 1,700 have been killed, and multiple thousands of casualties have been reported in the last two weeks.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green even as Chinese markets are closed the rest of the week for their national holiday.  Japan (+1.93%) and Thailand (+1.09%) led the gainers while Australia (-0.74%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see mostly green with only three of 14 bourses in the red at midday. The CAC (+0.02%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.46%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open.  DIA implies a -0.20% open, the SPY is implying a +0.01% open, and QQQ implies a +0.17% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.743% and Oil (WTI) is oddly (given the Israeli invasion of Lebanon) down 0.75% to $67.69 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes September S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), August Construction Spending, September ISM Mfg. PMI, Sept. ISM Mfg. Employment, September ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, and August JOLTs Job Openings (all at 10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (11 a.m. and 6:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AYI, MKC, PAYX, and UNFI.  However, after the close, CALM, LW, and NKE report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, CAG, RPM, and LEVI report.  On Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, AYI, MKC, and UNFI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, markets look indecisive so fat in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened the early session flat and have printed mostly wick since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is still in the bottom of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have just a bit more slack to work with today if they can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green. GOOGL (+1.32%) leads the gainers while AAPL (-1.26%) paces the losses. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.24%) has traded only a little more than 1.5 times the dollar-volume as TSLA (+0.37%). This is typically a factor of at least two to three.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw some modest divergence in the markets.  SPY opened 0.20% higher, DIA gapped up 0.25%, and QQQ opened up 0.21%.  However, from that open, QQQ sold off in a very slow manner the rest of the day. It could almost have been called sideway the last couple of hours.  Meanwhile, DIA rallied significantly until 11:30 a.m. before reversing and selling off slowly the rest of the day. For its part, after the open, SPY ground sideway until 11 a.m. and then sold off very slowly the rest of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Shooting Star type candle in the DIA, a black-bodied, fat-body, Spinning Top in the SPY, and a black-bodied candle in the QQQ.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and well-below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green again with Energy (+1.60%) far out in front, leading the rest of the market higher.  On the other side, Technology (-0.56%) and Basic Materials (-0.28%) were the laggard sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.16%, DIA gained 0.31%, and QQQ lost 0.55%.  VXX popped higher to close at 50.73 and T2122 climbed to the middle of its overbought territory at 90.32.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields fell to close at 3.754% while Oil (WTI) climbed 1.34% to close at $68.58 per barrel. So, taken as a whole, the three major index ETFs held their serve, staying in the existing trend, which are all bullish.  DIA did fail a consolidation breakout attempt while QQQ printed a second gap-up, black-body candle.  Meanwhile, SPY continued its melt higher ending not far above where it opened Monday.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included the August Core PCE Price Index (month-on-month), which came in lower than expected at 0.1% (compared to a forecast and July reading of 0.2%).  On an annual basis, August Core PCE Price Index (year-on-year), was up a tick as expected at 2.7% (versus a 2.7% forecast and a tick above July’s 2.6% reading).  At the same time, the August PCE Price Index (month-on-month) was down and lower than predicted at 0.1% (compared to a forecast and July value of 0.2%).  On the annual basis, the August PCE Price Index (year-on-year) was down significantly to 2.2% (from 2.3% forecast and down sharply from July’s 2.5%). At the same time, August Personal Spending (month-on-month) was also down sharply to 0.2% (versus a forecast of 0.3% and down sharply from July’s 0.5%). Meanwhile, the Preliminary August Goods Trade Balance was better than anticipated at -$94.26 billion (compared to a forecast of $100.60 billion and the July reading of -$102.84 billion).  At the same time, Preliminary August Retail Inventories were up less than expected at +0.4% (versus the July +0.5% value).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was a bit higher at 70.1 (compared to a 69.0 forecast and August reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also higher at 74.4 (versus the 73.0 forecast and August value).  In terms of future view, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were flat at 2.7% (measured against a 2.7% forecast and August reading).  In addition, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also flat at 3.1% (compared to the 3.1% forecast and August value).

In stock news, on Friday, VLKAF (Volkswagen) cut its 2024 outlook for the second time in less than three months.  The company also lowered its profit margin forecast to around 5.6% (down from a 6.5%-7.0% range set three months prior).  Later, C warned employees and contractors about tighter scrutiny as it suspect fraud and unethical behavior by both groups in terms of what the company is billed.  At the same time, Reuters reported that MS’s private equity unit is considering the sale of its HVAC firm Sila for about $1.5 billion.  Later, Reuters reported growing backlogs of rail shipments to Mexico, just as US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports may shutter.  At this point, UNP and BRKB-owned BNSF railways have stopped issuing new permits (orders) for railcar grain shipments to Mexico due to congestion in the Mexican rail system. 

Elsewhere, after the close, CNBC reported that SATS is very near a deal to sell its Dish Network to DirecTV (which is owned by T and TPG).  This comes as SATS will face a $1.98 billion debt payment in November and had just $521 million in cash on-hand as of June 30.  The deal value is rumored to be in the $9 billion neighborhood.  Later, Bloomberg reported that 16 European banks and payment processors are launching an alternative to V and MA called Wero. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the SEC announced that SAVA had agreed to pay a $40 million settlement over negligence-based non-disclosures. Later, the UK anti-trust regulator approved AMZN’s AI partnership with Anthropic and said it will not refer the matter for more investigation. At the same time, a federal judge ruled AAPL must face a lawsuit over its devices violating user privacy. The judge did throw out claims made based on the “Allow Apps to Request to Track” setting, but let claims related to the “Share Analytics” setting to proceed to trial.  Later, NHTSA announced that TM will recall over 42k vehicles over the loss of power brake assist the extended the braking distance of the vehicles.  At the same time, the NHTSA also announced that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) is recalling 27k vehicles due to the risk of the engine control software causing the engine to overheat. 

Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced that MZDAF (Mazda) is recalling 77k SUVs over a software error that could cause front airbags to deploy with excessive force.  At the same time, Chinese authorities discouraged companies from buying NVDA AI chips as Beijing tried to boost its own Chinese chipmakers.  (However, this is mostly a PR move at this point since there are no known Chinese-made AI chips anywhere near as powerful as the limited ones NVDA is allowed to sell China.)  Later, the Dept. of Trans. fined ACDVF (Air Canada) $250k for operating flights in 2022 and 2023 over prohibited Iraqi airspace.  At the same time, the EU fined META $101.5 million for storing user passwords with no protection or encryption.  Later, a US District judge announced he will hold a hearing on Oct. 11 to receive the objections of crash victim’s families to the BA plea deal.  At the same time, the FDA approved a GEHC diagnostic drug used for the detection of heart disease.  On Saturday, TKO agreed to pay $375 million to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging the company had colluded with other martial arts groups to tamp-down the compensation of fighters.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, there were 4.6 million customers without power in the Southeast US following Hurricane Helene.  (At least 64 people were also killed.) Meanwhile, the UD Dept. of Commerce said US car sales could fall about 26k per year under proposed rules barring Chinese vehicles over software internet connection (sending data to China). For reference, US auto sales were 15.5 million in 2023 and were up about 3.5% in the first half of 2024.

In Middle East news, Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon Friday with airstrikes that leveled six hi-rise apartment buildings.  The IDF said the target of the attack was the leader of Hezbollah. However, they also destroyed a very densely-populated Beirut neighborhood.  In addition, many hundreds of thousands of Lebanese have fled as refugees to other cities and countries as well as 250k that are now living on the streets to avoid being near buildings. Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu told the UN General Assembly that the Lebanese people were to blame for forcing Israel to attack and kill them. He went on to say that their attacks will continue. Meanwhile, the IDF also called up reserves to the Lebanese border and is currently practicing for another ground invasion of Lebanon.

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed their leader Nasrallah had, in fact, been killed. (It is worth noting Israel also assassinated his predecessor in 1992.)  In addition, Lebanon reported nearly 1000 people have been killed and several thousand others wounded by Israeli strikes in the last week. Various EU countries condemned the Israeli attacks and called for an end to hostilities by both sides. Meanwhile, Israel rejected a cease-fire deal put forth by the US in the same way it rejected a Gaza cease-fire. On Sunday, Israel increased its bombing (terror?) campaign with more strikes in Lebanon, the West Bank (Palestinian), and also expanded with strikes on Houthi Rebels in Yemen. Israel also ramped up its rhetoric threatening Iran over the weekend. The overall point, is that Israel seems to be intent on all-out regional war (with US arms and support in its back pocket).  So, the region as well as Middle Eastern oil, gas, and shipping routes are under greater threat as a broader regional conflict seems much more likely than it was a week ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were very mixed with five of the 12 exchanges in the region showing green. However, massive Chinese moves of Shenzhen (+10.67%), Shanghai (+8.06%), and Hong Kong (+2.43%) led the region higher as that country reacts to more stimulus.  On the other side, Japan (-4.80%), Taiwan (-2.62%), and South Korea (-2.13%) paced the losses.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Norway (+0.07%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.62%), DAX(-0.63%), and FTSE (-0.76%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 3.768% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.78% to $67.66 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to September Chicago PMI.  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (8:50 a.m.) and Fed Chair Powell (1:55 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Monday are limited to CCL.  However, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In geopolitical news, Reuters reported Thursday that a senior Pentagon official said that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.  Apparently, the first-in-class Chinese nuclear attack sub sank alongside its pier sometime between May and June.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get September S&P Global Mfg. PMI, August Construction Spending, September ISM Mfg. Employment, September ISM Mfg. PMI, September ISM Mfg. PMI Price Index, August JOLTs Job Openings, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (11 a.m. and 6:15 p.m.).  Then Wednesday, September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 11 a.m.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, September S&P Global Services PMI, September S&P Global Composite PMI, August Factory Orders, September ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, September ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Balance Sheet.   We also hear from Fed member Bostic at 10:40 a.m.  Finally, on Friday, September Avg. Hourly Earnings, September Nonfarm Payrolls, September Participation Rate, September Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and September Unemployment Rate.  We also hear from Fed member Williams.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AYI, MKC, PAYX, UNFI, CALM, LW, and NKE.  Then Wednesday, CAG, RPM, and LEVI report.  On Thursday, we hear from STZ.  However, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In overnight news, DirecTV (owned by T and TPG) finally agreed to acquire Dish Network (owned by SATS).  The move creates a network with 20 million subscribers.  As part of the deal, DirecTV will assume $9.75 billion in debt.  However, Dish shareholders will need to agree to a $1.57 billion haircut on that debt.  As part of the deal, T will sell its 70% stake in DirecTV to TPG for $7.6 billion.  (T originally bought its share of DirecTV for a little over $14 billion.) Elsewhere, more stimulus in China spiked global iron ore by 11% as Chinese cities agreed to ease home-buying restrictions.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are pushing this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket flat, but have traded lower, printing black-body candles with little wick. DIA has the smallest candle in the early session. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema). Still, the T2122 indicator is back up in the middle of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bears have more slack to work with today if they can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-2.87%) leads the losses and has more than twice the dollar-volume of the next closest, which is TSLA (-0.61%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Thursday, supposedly in response to MU’s beat and raise from Wednesday night.  SPY gapped 0.79%, DIA gapped up 0.50%, and QQQ gapped up 1.58%.  However, that was about it for the Bulls as the SPY and QQQ sold off until about 1:30 p.m.  At that point those two major index ETFs bounce about half way back to their open by 2 p.m. and ground sideways the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after its own gap higher, DIA just meandered sideways around that opening level all day.  This action gave us gap-up, black-bodied candles with significant lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  It is worth noting that SPT also printed a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. As for DIA, it printed a gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top Bull Harami inside its recent consolidation. This all happened on below-average volume in the DIA and QQQ as well as well-below-average volume in SPY.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+2.33%) far out in front, leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Energy (-1.97%) lagged far, far behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.40%, DIA gained 0.60%, and QQQ gained 0.75%.  VXX closed flat at 48.48 and T2122 spiked back up into the lower half of its overbought territory at 85.90.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields rose to close at 3.796% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.21% to close at $67.45 per barrel. (The drop in oil came on a combination of factors.  Even mor China stimulus, a modest de-escalation in Israeli-Hezbollah attacks, and OPEC+ publishing a highly bullish long-term oil demand forecast.)  So, the three major index ETFs opened divergently, but on small moves.  From there the move happened in the morning with the afternoon being just a dead-money grind sideways. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit lighter than expected at 218k (compared to a forecast of 224k and a previous week value of 222k).  At the same time, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were a bit higher than predicted at 1,834k (versus a 1,828k forecast and the prior week’s 1,821k number).  Meanwhile, Preliminary August Core Durable Goods Orders (month-on-month) came in stronger than anticipated at +0.5% (versus a +0.1% forecast and July’s -0.1% reading).  On the headline side, Preliminary August Durable Goods Orders (month-on-month) were flat at 0.0% (compared to a forecast of -2.8% and well down from July’s blowout +9.9% value).  At the same time, Q2 Core PCE Prices were exactly as expected at +2.80% (compared to a forecast and prior quarter reading of +2.80%).  In terms of Gross Domestic Product, Q2 GDP was +3.0% (versus a +3.0% forecast and well up from Q1’s +1.6%).  On the price side, the Q2 GDP Price Index was down as expected at +2.5% (compared to the +2.5% forecast and Q1’s +3.0% value).  Later, August Pending Home Sales were up, but below the anticipated numbers at +0.6% (versus a +0.9% forecast but much better than July’s -5.5% reading).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $29 billion contraction for the week, from $7.109 trillion to $7.080 trillion.

In Fed news, Fed Governor Bowman was contrary to what other Fed governors and FOMC members have been touting for months.  She told a Mid-size Bank Coalition of America workshop that “use of the Fed’s discount window is for emergencies, rather than for more usual liquidity needs.”  This is a start contrast to the Chair and her peers who have been trying to get more banks to use the facility more.  Bowman went on to say that she fears “unintended consequences” of banks posting collateral at the Fed Discount Window.  Later, in a pre-recorded opening remarks video for the Annual US Treasury Market Conference, Fed Chair Powell recalled the “flash crash” in 2014 and praised inter-agency cooperation that got us through that as well as the pandemic crisis.  A few minutes later, NY Fed President Williams announced the creation of a new committee at the NY Fed, the Reference Rate Use Committee, to study the use of interest rate benchmarks across various financial markets.  (How the use of reference rates is changing and the underlying markets are changing due to electronic trading and globalization of markets for example.) 

Later, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr told the Treasury Market Conference that the Fed is considering new requirements for banks to improve their liquidity. He said, smaller (community) banks would be excluded but that big banks would be required to keep a minimum level of liquid reserves as well as pre-positioned collateral at the Fed Discount Window.  Bass said this would be on a “tiered basis” with larger cash reserve requirements for larger banks. Shortly afterward, Treasury Sec. Yellen said that labor market and inflation data suggest the US economy is on a “soft landing path” as the “last mile” in taming inflation is bringing housing costs down.  She said, “I always believed that there was a path to a soft landing, that it was possible to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market, and to me, that’s what the data suggests has happened.”  She went on to say that U.S. deficit reduction was necessary to keep interest costs manageable over time, but added that the Biden administration thought it important to continue to invest in parts of the economy that would fuel future growth.  She continued by saying that banks are well capitalized but stressed the importance of the Fed Discount Window in ensuring stability during times of stress.

In other Fed news, Fed Governor Cook told an Ohio State University event that she whole-heartedly supported at 50-basis-point rate cut by the FOMC last week.  Cook said, “That decision reflected growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, the solid labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate economic growth and inflation continuing to move sustainably down to our target.”  She continued, “The return to balance in the labor market between supply and demand, as well as the ongoing return toward our inflation target, reflects the normalization of the economy after the dislocations of the pandemic.”  Cook went on, “This normalization, particularly of inflation, is quite welcome, as a balance between supply and demand is essential for sustaining a prolonged period of labor-market strength.”

After the close, BB, COST, and SCHL all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that BB and SCHL both had massive misses on revenue.

In stock news, on Thursday, the UAW announced that it had reached a tentative deal with F related to the River Rouge tool and die unit. At the same time, MSFT announced it plans to invest $2.7 billion in Brazil over the next three years to enhance its cloud computing infrastructure.  Later, V agreed to buy British IP Group’s Featurespace unit (which uses AI to provide “payment protection”) for $935 million according to the UK’s Sky News.  At the same time, the CEO of STLA told Reuters that he wants to follow the Chinese “low-cost mindset” in its EV production.  This came even as he attacked the EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, such as those in which STLA has an ownership stake. Later, Reuters also reported that C and APOS have formed a joint-venture $25 billion private credit and direct lending program. At the same time, GOOGL announced it will invest $3.3 billion to build two data centers in SC. 

Elsewhere, IT trade news outlet The Information reported AMZN has already amassed its goal of $1.8 billion in ad-spending pledges for 2025 for its video-streaming service. In marginally noteworthy news, a major insider and top-three shareholders of DJT has sold almost all of his company stock holdings.  Andrew Litinsky sold 7.5 million shares (5.5% of DJT stock), leaving him with 100 shares.  At the same time, LUV, AAL, and DAL canceled over 1,200 flights and delayed more than 4,100 due to Hurricane Helene.  Later, Bloomberg reported that LVMHF founder Arnault had lost $24 billion of his personal fortune this year.  However, on Thursday, China gave the greenlight to massive stimulus, causing traders to bet on sales gains by his LVMHF luxury goods.  The 9.9% stock price increase netted the tycoon a +17 billion day, increasing his net worth to $201 billion.  After the close, MTN announced it will cut 14% of its “corporate workforce” and less than 1% of operational employees, as it seeks to cut $100 million in costs annually by 2026.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, WFC announced it had sent the Fed a third-party review of its risk and control overhauls.  This is a critical step toward getting the Fed to lift the bank’s $1.95 trillion asset cap, which was imposed because of WFC’s lax controls and fraudulent back-dating of accounts.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that SMCI is being investigated by the US Dept. of Justice related to its accounting practices. (The report said the investigation is just in its early, data-gathering stage.) At the same time, the NHTSA announced that GM will recall over 18k vehicles over brake line problems.  Later, East Coast port employers filed a NRLB complaint against the Intl. Longshoreman Assn. for unfair labor practices. The filing alleges the union refuses to resume talks prior to its scheduled strike on October 1.

Elsewhere, the FTC issued the previously-rumored consent decree which approves the CVX $53 billion acquisition of HES.  However, as a condition of the approval, the HES CEO is barred from taking a board seat on CVS.  Later, the NTSB issued an urgent safety recommendation on rudder control systems for some BA 737 airplanes after an investigation of a February incident involving a jammed rudder on a UAL 737 MAX 8.  At the same time, the SEC announced that DKNG has agreed to pay a $200k penalty to settle charges of selectively disclosing of material non-public information via social media. After the close, the TX Public Utility Commission unanimously approved an expansion of its ERCOT electric grid to improve access for COP, XOM, FANG, CVX, and DVN.  (This is of note because the TX electric grid is already stretched and the pre-approval report said it expects the oil and gas drillers could account for almost one-third of the state’s summer electric usage by 2038.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, BAC analysts released a report claiming that certain sectors outperform in a steepening yield curve environment such as should be created by a Fed rate-cutting cycle.  BAC said, Healthcare and rising momentum lead sector performance during a Bull Market steepening.  On the other side, BAC said Basic Resources and High Risk stocks tend to outperform during Bear Market yield curve steepening.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported OPEC+ plans to go ahead with oil production increases (180k barrels per day) in December. Saudi Arabia was committed to the increase and Russia strongly opposed. In addition, OPEC+ will drop its unofficial $100/barrel price target in order to win back market share (from the US, Canada, China and Brazil).  Meanwhile, silver closed at its highest level since 2012 and gold hit a record level on Thursday.

In geopolitical news, Reuters reported Thursday that a senior Pentagon official said that China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank earlier this year.  Apparently, the first-in-class Chinese nuclear attack sub sank alongside its pier sometime between May and June.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red with seven of the 12 regional exchanges under break-even.  Even so, the big moves were all on the plus side as Shenzhen (+6.71%) was WAY OUT FRONT followed by Hong Kong (+3.55%), Shanghai (+2.88%), and Japan (+2.32%).  In Europe, the picture is mostly green with only three of 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (+0.84%), and FTSE (+0.54%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of break-even.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.14% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down a bit to 3.789% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $67.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes the August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, and August Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are pushing back after a gap down to start the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the early session, but all three have also put in decisive white-body candles since that open to get back to even. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, none of the major index ETFs are extended above its T-line (8ema) after Thursday’s gap and then black-body candle. However, the T2122 indicator is back up in the lower half of its overbought range. So, markets have room to run either direction, but the Bulls still clearly have momentum and the Bears have more slack to work with today if they can reverse sentiment. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split with five in the red and five in green. It is worth noting that the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.56%) leads the losses and has twice the dollar-volume of the next closest, which is TSLA (+0.83%) and that second dog is leading the gainers. Finally, remember it is Friday and the next to last trading day of the month. So, prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t forget to pay yourself…lock-in profits where you can.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, stocks opened up undecided.  SPY opened down 0.01%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. From that point, DIA immediately began to sell off, reaching the lows of the day at 1:40 p.m.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ rallied modestly after the open, reversing and beginning to selloff at 10:20 a.m. They both reached their lows between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m.  After that, all three major index ETFs traded sideways in a tight range along the lows.  This action gave us a large black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candle that retested and stayed above its T-line (8ema).  At the same time, SPY printed a black-bodied, indecisive Spinning Top.  Finally, QQQ gave us a white-bodied Inverted Hammer type candle (not a Shooting Star due to a gap lower not up).  This happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.79%) far out in front leading the rest of the market lower. On the other side, Utilities (+0.26%) held up much better than the other sectors and was the only green on the sector board.  At the same time, SPY fell 0.22%, DIA dropped 0.71%, and QQQ gained 0.09%.  VXX closed up 1.36% to 48.41 and T2122 plummeted down to the center of its mid-range at 59.68.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields jumped to close at 3.791% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.40% to close at $69.84 per barrel. (The drop in oil came on a combination of factors.  Even mor China stimulus, a modest de-escalation in Israeli-Hezbollah attacks, and OPEC+ publishing a highly bullish long-term oil demand forecast.)  So, the three major index ETFs opened divergently, but on small moves.  From there the move happened in the morning with the afternoon being just a dead-money grind sideways. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included August Building Permits which came in up but slightly lighter than expected at 1.470 million (compared to forecast of 1.475 million and the July reading of 1.406 million). Meanwhile, August New Home Sales were down but better than predicted at 716k (versus a forecast of 699k and the July value of 751k).  This was a 4.7% decline on a month-on-month basis. Later, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger decline than expected at -4.471 million barrels (compared to a forecast calling for a 1.300-million-barrel draw and prior week reading of 1.630 million barrels. 

In Fed news, Fed Governor Kugler said Wednesday that she “strongly supported” the half percent rate cut at last week’s FOMC meeting.  Kugler said, “The labor market remains resilient, but the FOMC now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy.”  She continued, “I strongly supported last week’s decision and, if progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts.”

After the close, MU and WS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, CNXC bear on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, FUL and JEF missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, the union that represents striking BA workers in the Pacific Northwest told Reuters that the workers are not interested in the latest offer from the company.  (BA called that offer their “best and final” offer.)  At the same time, unions for LUV workers announced company plans to reduce service to and from Atlanta in 2025 as part of cost cutting plans.  This will lead to the loss of an unspecified number of jobs.  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) flatly rejected union calls for more talks as the unions threaten strikes following a bitter first round of negotiations over potential German plant closures.  At the same time, META unveiled new Augmented Reality glasses and AI updates.  Later, STLA and French nuclear fuel firm Orano announced they are dropping a previously planned joint venture to recycle electric car batteries. Meanwhile, MRK announced bad results from a late-stage trial for its experimental colorectal cancer drug. (441 trial participants who took the drug did not show significant improvement in survival compared to existing treatments.) 

Later, PYPL announced it will allow merchants to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrency from their business accounts.  After the close, PFE withdrew its sickle cell disease treatment Oxbryta from all markets worldwide and discontinued all studies and programs related to the treatment.  (This decision was “based on the totality of clinical data, which indicates the benefits of the drug o not outweigh the risks” according to a PFE statement.)  PFE reported $92 million in revenue from Oxbryta in Q2.  At the same time, SPR announced it will begin employee furloughs in three weeks unless the BA strike in the Pacific Northwest ends before that time.  Later, BX confirmed previous rumors that it has invested $13.3 billion in an AI data center in the Northeast England.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that SDXOF (France’s Sodexo) is strongly considering a big to takeover rival ARMK.  (ARMK share spiked in after-hours trading.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, BAC (Merrill lynch subsidiary) agreed to pay $3.8 million to settle two SEC charges related to investment limits and fees. At the same time, Australia’s securities regulator fined fund giant Vanguard $9 million for misleading claims about its ethical and green investment funds.  Later, the NHTSA announced that STLA will recall 15,000 Fiat vehicles in the US due to software errors that may cause airbags to deploy with excessive force.  At the same time, GOOGL filed a complaint with the European Commission against what it alleges are anti-competitive practiced by MSFT to lock their customers into the MSFT Azure cloud computing platform.  Later, X announced that an arbitration board has ruled in favor of Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion buyout of the company.  However, the United Steelworkers which represents the vast majority of X employees said it disagreed with the decision and this did not change its opposition to the deal. 

Meanwhile, Transportation Sec. Buttigieg and Acting Labor Sec. Su wrote a letter to the CEOs of CSX, CNR, and CP urging the companies to guarantee paid sick leave for all workers. (The letter said 10k of their workers do not have paid sick leave.  A rail trade group responded by saying that 60% of rail workers do have paid sick leave…as if that was something to exclaim.) Later, GOOGL, GS, BCSF, BNS, LEGH, and CELH agreed to pay a combined $3.8 million in penalties to the SEC to settle charges over late filings and disclosures.  At the same time, CSLLY received a $121 million contract from the HHS Dept. to increase the US stockpile of bird flu vaccine to 40 million doses.  After the close, AEO sued AMZN alleging the ecommerce giant infringed on its Aerie trademarks on clothing and accessories.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, US ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast extended their delivery hours for importers as companies rush to clear cargo through the ports ahead of a potential and looming strike on October 1.  (The strike could cover five of the top 10 busiest ports in the US.)  Elsewhere, a global banking trade group (Inst. Of Intl. Finance) reported Wednesday that global debt rose to a record $312 trillion at the end on Q2. This resulted in a global debt-to-GDP ratio of 327%.  Oddly, the “developed countries” ratio fell to its lowest level since 2018, driven by declines in household and non-financial corporate sector borrowing.  Later, a group of House GOP members, led by the Chair of the Select Committee on China, said Wednesday that the panel’s top priority is legislation to prevent US investment in China.  The group painted the issue as needing to stop US investors from funding our own country’s demise (by funding the enemy China).  Many Democrats are more than willing to go along with such initiatives as Populism and Nationalism has apparently completely replaced free trade and “the invisible hand of the market” philosophies.

In government funding news, after the close, the House passed a stop-gap spending continuing resolution to fund government operations through December 20.  The move comes after MAGA extremists lost their bid to tie a voter suppression amendment to the bill.  The bill passed 341-82 with all “no votes” being cast by Republicans.  (As a side note, this leaves House Speaker Johnson in the same predicament as his ousted predecessor, having had to go against the MAGA wing of his party in order to actually govern.  There is no word on whether a move will be made to oust Johnson, but it is doubtful prior to the election since Republicans don’t want to refresh the view of their party as wholly dysfunctional, having passed no legislation of any meaning and caused potential shutdowns seven different times since January 2023.  Number eight comes on December 20.)  Senate Majority Leader Schumer had prepared for the last-minute wrangling by putting a placeholder on the Senate schedule.  So, the Senate voted on the bill from the House and passed it 78-18.  The bill now goes to the President, where it will be signed.

Overnight, global markets have been given a leg up by MU’s beat and forecast raise last night. MU raised Q3 guidance a half billion higher than estimates to $8.7 billion for the quarter. As a result, all tech-related and chip names in particular soared higher. Asian markets were mostly green with just three of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Shenzhen (+4.44%), Hong Kong (+4.16%), and Shanghai (+3.61%) led broad and strong gains across the region.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape as 12 of the 14 bourses are well into the green.  The CAC (+1.50%), DAX (+1.14%), and lagging FTSE (+0.16%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m.), Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.76% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.77% and Oil (WTI) has dropped another 2.73% to $67.77 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, August Core Durable Goods Orders, August Durable Goods Orders, Q2 Core PCE Prices, Q2 GDP, and Q2 GDP Price Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), August Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (9:15 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell (9:20 a.m.), Fed member Williams (9:25 a.m.), Fed Vice Chair Barr (10:30 a.m.), Treasury Sec. Yellen (11:15 a.m.), Fed Vice Chair Barr (1 p.m.), and Fed member Kashkari (1 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to ACN, KMX, JBL, and SNX.  Then, after the close, BB, COST, and SCHL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, August Core PCE Price Index, August PCE Price Index, August Personal Spending, August Goods Trade Balance, August Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, ACN and JBL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, KMX beat on revenue while missing by a penny on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are charging this morning on that MU forecast optimism. All three major index ETFs gapped up significantly to start the premarket. However, SPY and DIA have printed tiny Doji candles since while QQQ has followed-through with a decent-size white-body candle that is now within 2% of its all-time highs. It is worth noting that SPY sits at a new all-time high by three-quarters of a percent in the early session. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is still bullish. The mid-term trend is now also bullish with QQQ the laggard but now well over its downtrend line going back to the July all-time high. In the longer-term we still have a strong Bull trend all three major index ETFs and remain near all-time highs. With regard to extension, QQQ is extended far above its T-line (8ema) after the premarket gap up. However, the other two major index ETFs are not yet too far extended above their T-lines. However, the T2122 indicator is back down in the middle of its mid-range. So, markets may have room to run either direction, but the Bulls clearly have momentum early and the Bears have much more slack to work with today if they can reverse sentiment. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green with INTC (+2.89%), AMD (+2.54%), and NVDA (+2.27%) leading the gains. As usual, However, that biggest dog, NVDA, is leading the dollar-volume traded this morning by a factor of three compared to any other ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service