Earnings and Oil Use Cheer Bulls This AM

All three major indices gapped modestly higher at the open Wednesday.  This was followed by an immediate 30-minute selloff in the QQQ.  Then all 3 of those indices “roller-coastered” their way sideways in a volatile rest of the day.  This left us with a gap-up Doji in the DIA, a gap-up black Spinning Top type candle in the SPY, and a Large black Dark Cloud Cover candle in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.10%, DIA gained 0.68% (largely on the earnings-related big gains from IBM +7.08% and PG +2.66%), and the QQQ lost 1.50%.  The VXX fell 1.37% to 24.39 and T2122 rose to just outside the overbought territory at 76.55.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.846% and Oil (WTI) ended unchanged at $102.56/barrel.l.

During the day, Crude Oil inventories came in dramatically lower than expected (-8 million barrels vs + 2.5 million barrels set.).  The Fed Beige Book also indicated that (surprise!) inflationary pressures remain strong.  NFLX continued to be hammered for Tuesday night’s earnings miss, closing down 35% (which was actually up more than 4% from the lows of the day).  AAPL has its Atlanta store employees file for a union election (jumping ahead of the New York City store that is also gathering signatures in order to trigger a union vote).  San Francisco Fed President Daly (a dove) also voiced her thoughts.  This included that she fears the coming series of rate hikes could tip the economy into recession, but that she also thought the dip would be mild.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

After the close Wednesday, TSLA, EFX, KNX, LSTR, SCX, SEIC, KMI, VMI, and THC all reported beating on both the revenue and earnings lines.  TSLA in particular blew away Wall Street’s expectations ($3.22 actual vs $2.26 est. and $18.76 billion vs $17.80 bill est.).  Meanwhile, AA, and CCI both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the opposite side, CVNA and GL both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, LCRX and SNBR reported misses on both lines.

In business news this morning, AMZN announced that it plans to open up its Prime delivery service to other retailers.  This will allow other merchants to sell their goods under the “Buy with Prime” without explicitly mentioning AMZN…for a fee of course.  The service will also appeal to the 200 million existing AMZN Prime members.  Elsewhere, AAL says that it expects a Q2 profit and is seeing very strong bookings.  It has returned to 94% of its 2019 flight schedule, which is more than competitors DAL and UAL.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed again, with more exchanges in the green than red, but the losers moved more than the winners.  Shenzhen (-2.70%), Shanghai (-2.26%), and Hong Kong (-1.25%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, India (+1.49%) and Japan (+1.23%) were by far the biggest gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.17%) lags again while the DAX (+1.57%) and CAC (+1.82%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.63% open, the SPY is implying a +0.79% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.08% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.877% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent to $103.05 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday, we get Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), and Fed Chair Powell speaks at both 11 am and 1 pm.  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABB, ALK, AAL, T, AN, BX, DHR, DQ, DOV, DOW, FCX, GPC, HRI, HBAN, KEY, MMC, NEE, NUE, PNR, PM, POOL, DGX, SNA, SON, SNV, TSCO, TPH, UNP, WSO, and XRX before the open.  Then after the close, SAM, FE, ISRG, PPG, SNAP, SIVB, and UFPI report.

So far this morning, AN, PM, BX, DOW, DHR, MMC, AAL, TSCO, DGX, DOV, SON, HBAN, POOL, WSO, SNA, PNR, ALK, TPH, SNV, and DQ have all posted beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, T missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, KEY, XRX, and HRI beat on revenue but missed on the earnings line.  However, ABB missed on both lines.

LTA Scanning Software

Earnings will be a tailwind for the bulls today as a large majority of reports came in as beats on both lines last night and this morning. However, Jobless Claims have a chance to rock the boat in premarket while Fed Chair Powell is also speaking during the day. The mega-cap Dow Components look to be breaking free of the recent range while the broader SPY and QQQ seem to still be struggling with that resistance. This may indicate a rotation toward the names perceived to be safer in a rising-rate environment. However, remember that both intraday volatility and day-to-day chop have been the norm for a while now. So, respect that fact and continue to be cautious. Don’t be in a hurry to chase into a rally the first few minutes of the day. Swing trading is not about catching every cent of a move. It’s about taking your slice out of the middle of a swing.

Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MCK, CLX, TSLA, DVN, NKE, CCJ, MO, URA, IBM, ORCL, APD, UA, SWN, F, FSR, APA, GM, COP. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

NFLX Hammered on Subscriber Decline

Markets opened basically flat on Tuesday but then proceeded to rally until 11 am before a sideways grind that lasted until 3 pm.  Prices rallied the last hour of the day taking all 3 major indices out near their highs.  This left use with large white candles and Morning Star patterns in all 3 of those indices.  All 3 also climbed back above their T-line (8ema) before the close.  On the day, SPY gained 1.63%, DIA gained 1.48%, and QQQ gained 2.22%.  The VXX fell 2.3% to 24.73 and T2122 jumped up to the upper mid-range at 70.26.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 2.94% (highest since 2018) and Oil (WTI) fell 5.28% to $102.50/barrel.

Contrary to Monday’s call by the Fed’s Bullard (Hawk) for several half-point interest rate hikes (and potentially using three-quarters point rate hikes) targeting a “neutral rate of 3.5% by year-end, on Tuesday we heard from Atlanta Fed President Bostic.  Bostic (usually considered a hawk) told CNBC he was concerned that raising rates too fast could hurt the economy and wants the FOMC to be “very measured” in rate hikes.  He also said that the “neutral rate” could be as low as 1.75%, half of what Bullard (the most extreme hawk) felt would be neutral.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

After the close Tuesday, IBM, OMC, and FHN all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  NFLX reported a significant beat on earnings ($3.53 actual vs $2.92 est.) but missed on revenue (as well as reporting it lost subscribers for the first time) and was absolutely hammered (down as much as 28%) in post-market trading on that miss. On the opposite side, IBKR missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.

As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, both the US and UK announced today that they will be sending new military assistance packages to Ukraine.  This is in addition to last week’s $800 million package.  The White House specifically mentioned that the new package would include more heavy artillery and shells.  However, the Pentagon declined to outline the contents of this next package.  The main US suppliers of artillery such systems are GD, RTX, NOC, and LMT.

News out of China may give us a chance to capitalize on future news.  The largest and fourth-largest ports in the world are currently shut down due to covid lockdowns. There are over 300 container ships and over 500 bulk-carrier ships waiting offshore to be unloaded and reloaded with exports.  This very likely means that once China opens and they surge to get the backlog out, the logjam will move back to the US ports of LA, Long Beach, and Oakland.  All this means more supply chain problems for major importers.  The five largest are WMT, TGT, HD, LOW, and DOLE.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Shenzhen (-2.07%) and Shanghai (-1.35%) saw by far the biggest losses while New Zealand (+1.10%), India (+1.05%), and Taiwan (+0.91%) led the more numerous gainers.  In Europe, stocks are nearly green across the board.  The FTSE (+0.16%) lags, but the DAX (+1.03%) and CA (+1.13%) are typical of the region with even Russia (+2.47%) up strongly in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another flat start to the day.  The DIA implies +0.14%, the SPY is implying +0.03%, and QQQ implies a -0.13% open to the day.  10-year bond yields are back down to 2.863% and Oil (WTI) is up just over 1% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes March Existing Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Fed Beige Book (2 pm).  There is also a Fed speaker scheduled (Daly at 10:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABT, ANTM, ASML, BKR, CMA, LAD, MTB, NDAQ, PG, and before the open.  Then after the close, AA, CVNA, CCI, CSX, EFX, KMI, KNX, LRCX, LSTR, LBRT, SEIC, SNBR, STLD, THC, TSLA, UAL, and VMI report.

So far this morning, ABT ANTM, PG, ASML, LAD, and NDAQ have all reported beating estimates on both revenue and earnings.  At the same time, RCI and MTB both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, BKR and CMA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

LTA Scanning Software

Overnight it was announced that the largest public pension fund (CalPERS), which is a major holder of BRKB stock, will be voting in favor of a proposal to replace Warren Buffett as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. The “Oracle of Omaha” has been the public face and perceived leader of stock markets for at least 40 years and this move is notable, though not unexpected for a man who is 91 years old. No word is yet available on when the vote can be forced. However, in 2021 Buffett announced that his successor would be Greg Abel who is currently BRKB Vice-Chair for Non-Insurance Businesses.

Yesterday’s action took us back to the top of the recent trading range. However, it appears that the bulls may make at least an early bid to push up out of that range today. However, volatility and day-to-day chop have been the norm for a while now. So we have to respect the fact that we are right at a level of resistance in all 3 major indices. So, be cautious. Don’t be in a hurry to chase into a rally the first few minutes of the day. Swing trading is not about catching every cent of a move. It’s about taking your slice out of the middle of a swing.

Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLVT, IT, HTZ, DISH, FIS, CMCSA, CLX, MA, NKE, XLB, MCD, APD, MRO, MNST, US, MMM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Earnings in US and Russia Spooks Europe

Markets opened little changed on Monday and then traded sideways in a roller-coaster fashion the rest of the day.  This left us with indecisive Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY gained 0.04%, DIA lost 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.08%.  The VXX rose a little more than a percent to 25.31 and T2122 fell a bit but remains in the mid-range at 34.90.  10-year bond yields continue to spike, ending at 2.857% and Oil (WTI) closed higher to $107.42/barrel.

In business news, Jack Dorsey (former CEO, who is still a board member), criticized the TWTR board.  This came less than a day after Elon Musk fired back at the TWTR “poison pill,” claiming the board doesn’t own enough TWTR stock to be aligned with investors.  On top of this, Bloomberg reported that sources tell them that Apollo Group would be willing to finance Musk’s takeover bid. Elsewhere, following on the SBUX and AMZN trend, workers at an AAPL store in New York City have begun the process of attempting to unionize.  In earnings news, after the close, JBHT posted beats on both revenue and earnings. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

After the close, Fed member Bullard (strongest Hawk) said that “inflation is far too high” at an event for the Council on Foreign Relations.  He went on to say that the economy will not fall into recession and that he expects the unemployment rate to fall below 3% later this year.  He also repeated his argument that the Fed Funds Rate needs to get to at least 3.5% by the end of the year and said that a three-quarter of a percent hike is possible if required, but that he would prefer multiple half-percent hikes in the FOMC Meetings to come.

So far this morning, CFG, HAL, and SBNY have reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, JNJ, LMT, TRV, and TFC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, FITB and HAS both missed on the bottom line while beating on revenue.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed again.  Hong Kong (-2.28%) and India (-1.25%) were far and away the biggest losers on the day.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+0.95%), Japan (+0.69%), and Taiwan (+0.56%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are nearly red across the board at mid-day.  Russia (-4.03%) is an outlier, but many of the smaller exchanges have well over a 1% loss at this point.  The FTSE (-0.35%), DAX (-0.73%), and CAC (-1.12%) lead the continent as always, just based on exchange size, in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.07% open at this hour.  10-yeat bond yields are up to 2.89% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.4% to $106.66/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday are limited to March Building Permits and March Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CFG, FITB, HAL, HAS, JNJ, LMT, MAN, PLD, SBNY, TRV, and TFC before the open.  Then after the close, FHN, IBKR, IBM, NFLX, and OMC report.

LTA Scanning Software

Following yesterday’s Federal judge ruling that the CDC does not have the power to issue mask mandates, the TSA announced overnight that they will stop enforcing mask requirements. This may (or may not) prove helpful for travel stocks as we enter what industry sources expect to be a massive wave of travel in Spring and Summer. However, the White House and Justice Dept. are still reviewing the ruling and determining whether to appeal the decision. So, this may change and in either case, it seems like convenient timing for the ruling after the worst of the pandemic is 1-2 years behind us.

The renewed Russian assault on Donbas has European markets spooked. It seems clear that Moscow has directed its military to employ terror and leave scorched earth if Putin cannot have what he wants. So, we are likely to hear of another round of military aid heading from the US and EU, which can benefit the military industrials like RTX, LMT, GD, NOC, and maybe WCHS. Beyond that, the volatility continues and is likely to continue. On any earnings news, forward guidance will be just as important as results. Expect a lot of news and analysis to focus on that guidance as they try to handicap the impact of rate hikes and Fed-led economic landing. So, continue to be cautious, hedged, and/or have stops that are loose enough to ride out the whipsaw (and be ready to withstand that short-term pain). Trade carefully.

Stick with those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ATUS, WRB, LULU, ORCL, IP, X, CMCSA, DIS, GFI, COP, MRO, CF, APA, SHW, OKE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bank Earnings, TWTR Drama, and Ukraine

Markets opened basically flat on Thursday and then sold off the rest of the day.  This resulted in black, Bearish Engulfing candles and Oreo Cookie patterns in the SPY and QQQ, with DIA putting in a black candle with all 3 closing on the lows of the day.  On the day, SPY lost 1.25%, DIA lost 0.43%, and QQQ lost 2.29%.  The VXX rose to 24.99 and T2122 dropped to right in the middle at 50.67.  The 10-year bond yields spiked again to 2.827% and Oil (WTI) rose more than 2% to $106.44/barrel.

On Friday, we got some positive economic news.  The NY Empire State Mfg. Index came in above expectations.  The same was true of March Industrial Production, which came in almost double the forecast value (+0.9% vs 0.4% forecast).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

Related to Elon Musk’s hostile TWTR takeover bid, the stock traded in a volatile way Thursday, but never got even close to the offered $54.20/share.  It actually closed down 1.68% to $45.08.  This seems to imply that the market does not believe the deal will ever happen.  Friday, a couple of analysts downgraded the stock as now “being in the middle in an Elon circus.”  Also on Friday, a Saudi Prince offered to match Musk’s deal and buy the company at the same price (perhaps offering a more palatable buyer).  However, late in the day TWTR board unanimously passed a “poison pill” policy.  This means if anybody acquires 15% of company stock without board approval, then other TWTR holders will be allowed to buy additional shares at a deep discount.  This would flood the market with shares of TWTR, driving down the price and making a takeover much harder, slower, and more expensive.     

So far this morning, BAC and SYF have both reported beating on both lines.  At the same time, BK printed a beat on revenue while reporting in-line earnings.  However, we should note that BK’s in-line report was still down 11.3% from the prior quarter.

On the Russian invasion story, Russia is continuing to fire missiles at major Ukrainian cities like Karkhiv, Kiyv, and Lviv. Meanwhile, Ukrainian resistance continues to hold out in the last stronghold of the destroyed city of Mariupol. The Russian Donbas offensive is underway with heavy fighting in the town of Kreminna, which is located Southeast of Karkhiv in the Luhansk region. On the economic side, Ukraine has submitted its application questionnaire to join the EU. More importantly, many analysts are now saying that renewed aid is desperately needed as Ukraine is in need of more heavy weapons and, in particular, more ammunition to maintain its fight in the face of the massive Russian assault. So, look for more aid to be coming from NATO countries and new orders to be placed in turn with companies like GD, WCHS, NOC, and RTX.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  India (-1.73%), Japan (-1.08%), and Singapore (-0.98%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+0.67%), Australia (+0.59%), and Shenzhen (+0.37%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are also mixed, but in this case, lean to the upside at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.47%), DAX (+0.62%), and CAC (+0.72%) lead as usual while Russia (-1.76%) is an outlier to the downside in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.12% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.33% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up again to 2.837% and Oil (WTI) is down fractionally in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to a Fed speaker (Bullard at 4 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BAC, BK, SCHW, and SYF before the open.  Then after the close, JBHT reports.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get March Building Permits and March Housing Starts.  Then Wednesday, we see March Existing Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book will be released.  On Thursday, we get Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Fed Chair Powell speaks.  Finally, on Friday we get Mfg. PMI and Services PMI.

LTA Scanning Software

Coming off the 3-day break, it was Elon Musk’s TWTR drama that maintained the spotlight all weekend. Yet, we also find ourselves at the start of another earnings season. And this quarter’s earnings may be more important than many recent quarters’ numbers (and especially guidance) as traders try to read through how well firms will be able to cope with the rising rates and fear of a hard landing. Recently, both major intraday and day-to-day reversals have been the rule. So, continue to be either being very nimble/quick, hedged, or have stops that are loose enough to ride out the whipsaw (and be ready to withstand that short-term pain). Trade carefully and position yourself for the long weekend news cycle.

Stick with those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GPN, TWTR, VLO, IP, OXY, GPS, BP, HON, MMM, TGT, ZTS, EBAY, OTIS, AME, MAS, SHW, SLB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Earnings, Bird Flu, TWTR Bid and Claims

Despite a record 11.2% Year-on-Year PPI report before the opening bell, stocks opened flat on Wednesday.  However, at that point, we started a slow, steady rally that lasted the rest of the day.  This left us with large white candles in all 3 major indices and the SPY and DIA both printing Bullish Engulfing candles.  On the day, SPY gained 1.15%, DIA gained 1.03%, and QQQ gained 2.03%.  The VXX fell 4.5% to 24.59 and T2122 shot back up to close just outside the overbought territory at 75.61.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 2.,701%, and Oil (WTI) gained 3.47% to $104.09/barrel.

AMZN announced Wednesday afternoon that they will be adding a 5% “fuel and inflation” surcharge to all sellers as of April 28 for all users of “Fulfillment By Amazon.”  The vast majority of sellers are expected to raise the price of goods sold through AMZN in response.  (89% of all AMZN sellers use FBA.)  AMZN said their fee amounts to 24 cents per package, which is less than the USP surcharge of 42 cents and the FDX surcharge of 49 cents.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

As if food inflation were not bad enough already, the US is suffering from an outbreak of the bird flu.  So far, 23 million chickens have died across 24 states.  Iowa seems to be the worst-hit state with over 13 million chickens culled in that state so far.  The last outbreak, in 2015, saw 50 million birds die over a six-month period.  So, this outbreak appears to be worse than the last outbreak.  The largest chicken-producer stocks are PPC, SAFM, and TSN, while the largest egg-producing stock is CALM.  Among the companies that consume the most chicken as inputs, we see SYY, HRL, PPC, and TSN. Second-level users of chicken and eggs include MCD, WEN, GIS, and KHC.

In earnings news, so far this morning ALLY, GS, MS, STT, TSM, UNH, and USB have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, RAD beat on revenue, but missed on earnings.  On the other side, PNC and WFC both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ERIC missed on both lines.

In other stock news, Elon Musk has launched a hostile takeover bid to take TWTR private.  Musk has offered $54.20/share (roughly $43 billion), which is a small 18% premium on Wednesday’s closing price of $45.85.  This move comes less than 24 hours after TWTR investors sued Musk for violating SEC rules and not disclosing he had taken more than a 5% stake in the stock without notifying the SEC within 10 days.  TWTR is wildly volatile in premarket, now at $48.88.

On the Russian invasion story, the Biden Administration confirmed another round of military assistance for Ukraine as reported here yesterday.  The $800 million package includes howitzer artillery, armored personnel carriers, 500 more Javelin missiles, and 300 more Switchblade Kamikaze Drones. Elsewhere, the major defense contractors met with Pentagon officials, who told them to ramp up production of weapons for Ukraine and to expect at least a 2-year war.  These include BA, LHX, RTX, LMT, HII, GD, and NOC.  Interestingly, India’s largest oil refiner has suddenly stopped buying Russian oil and the world’s largest oil trader (Vitol) announced it would also stop buying crude from Russia.  This may indicate they are bowing to pressure from the Biden Admin.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed.  Shenzhen (+1.27%), Shanghai (+1.22%), and Japan (+1.22%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, the broad but modest losses were paced by Taiwan (-0.32%), India (-0.31%), and Thailand (-0.25%).  In Europe, stocks are mostly modestly green at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.03%), DAX (+0.24%), and CAC (+0.52%) lead the way as usual in early afternoon trading. Russia (-2.16%) is an outlier to the downside for obvious reasons.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an opening just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.08% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly to 2.684% and Oil (WTI) is off eight-tenths of a percent to $103.24/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes March Retail Sales, March Import/Export Indices, and Weekly Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Bus. Inventories and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am), and a couple of Fed speakers (Mester at 3:50 pm and Harker at 6 pm).  Earnings season is back as ALLY, C, ERIC, GS, MS, PNC, PGR, RAD, STT, TSM, USB, UNH, and WFC all reporting before the open. There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.

Also remember that US Markets are closed tomorrow for Good Friday, but we still get NY Empire State Mfg. Index and March Industrial Production numbers.  Also, Friday is Tax Day in the US.

LTA Scanning Software

There is a flurry of news to start off the last day of the week. The buzz in the premarket is over earnings and Musk’s TWTR buyout bid. It seemed like markets took the PPI number in stride yesterday, so perhaps the focus has shifted away from economic news and back to specific sectors and charts. With a 3-day holiday weekend ahead, don’t be surprised if volume dries up a bit today in the afternoon. Major intraday reversals have been the rule lately, so beware chasing anything at the open. Continue to be either being very nimble/quick, hedged, or have stops that are loose enough to ride out the whipsaw (and be ready to withstand that short-term pain). Trade carefully and position yourself for the long weekend news cycle.

Remember, earnings season is starting again (check those earnings dates) and also that markets are closed Friday (Good Friday). So, you don’t have to chase trades early this week. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NVCR, ZBH, DAL, CRSP, FSLR, LUV, CMCSA, DASH, ORCL, NEM, ERX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Earnings Start and March PPI at 8:30

Stocks gapped higher at the open Tuesday, presumably on the fact that March CPI “only” came in at 8.5%.  There was even a little follow-through during the first half-hour of the day.  However, markets then rethought their position and this led to a steady selloff that lasted the entire rest of the day.  This left us with black candles with plenty of wicks at both ends in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.37%, DIA lost 0.29%, and QQQ lost 0.42%.  The VXX also lost 1.4% to 25.74 and T2122 climbed a bit, but remains in the lower half of the mid-range at 39.32.  10-year bond yields fell back to 2.72% after being at a 3-year high early in the day. 

Tuesday also saw Oil (WTI) spike massively (over 7%) to $100.98 after being up “only 5%” most of the day.  This seemed to initially be related to lockdown easing in Shanghai leading traders to expect higher demand.  Yet, more talk of European sanctions on Russian oil and OPEC slashing the forecast for Russian oil exports led to fears about supply as well.  President Biden’s easing of maximum ethanol percentage regulations seemed to do little to impact either oil or gas prices, at least for the day.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

On the Russian invasion story, after-hours Reuters reported that the US will announce another $750 million in weapons aid for Ukraine today, including heavy ground artillery such as howitzer cannons.  Among the winners of contracts to resupply the US military will be RTX, LMT, RTN, BA, NOC, GD, and LHX who have all been invited to the Pentagon to discuss their capacity to supply Ukraine and refill American stockpiles.  Overnight, Sweden’s ruling party decided to back entry into NATO in a direct afront to Putin’s demands and threats.

So far this morning, DAL, FAST, and FRC have reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  JPM and BBBY both beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  JPM did so after taking over a $525 million hit from Russian sanctions and BBBY blamed supply chain woes (low inventories) for a poor holiday quarter.  Finally, BLK missed on revenue while reporting a massive beat on earnings ($9.52 actual vs. $8.92 est.).

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed.  Japan (+1.93%), South Korea (+1.86%), and Taiwan (+1.83%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-1.60%) and Shanghai (-0.82%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are mostly red at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.08%), DAX (-0.89%), and CAC (-0.51%) lead the way with only Norway (+1.62%) being a significant winner in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.51% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.67% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat at 2.725% and Oil (WTI) is up almost 1.8% to $102.44/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to March PPI (8:30 am) and Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  However, earnings season kicks off in earnest today with these major earnings reports scheduled before the open, BBBY, BLK, DAL, FAST, FRC, INFY, JPM, and SJR.  There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.

LTA Scanning Software

Everybody expects a very hot PPI number this morning, but as usual, it won’t be as hot as yesterday’s 8.5% CPI number. (Business always passes on more than the hit they take.) Yesterday’s number led to an initial gap up, but then a rethink. Will we get the same today? It’s hard to say, especially since we are starting back into earnings season and eyeballs will be focusing on the rearview mirror for a while, gauging the impact of Russian sanctions (on companies that shut Russian operations or lost business due to embargoes) and inflation. This will be even more evident in consumer names as markets try to read through “just how badly has consumer spending been hurt by rising prices.” We should still expect volatility (like yesterday morning’s big reversal) and be prepared. That means continuing to be either being very nimble/quick, being hedged, or having loose enough stops (and the ability to withstand short-term pain) to ride out the whipsaw action. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Remember, earnings season is starting again (check those earnings dates) and also that markets are closed Friday (Good Friday). So, you don’t have to chase trades early this week. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EXR, MRO, SHEL, OXY, X, DRE, CF, KGC, FE, MDT, DVN, TWTR, ZBH, LULU, EOG, APA, FIS, XLU, CVX, ET. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

March CPI Number Looming at 8:30

Markets gapped down Monday after bond yields spiked then managed to hang on for about an hour.  However, then a long, slow selloff took over that ran into the end of the day.  This left us with big, ugly, gap-down black candles that closed not far off the lows in all 3 major indices.  All 3 also managed to drop through their 50sma, although to be fair the DIA only fell about 50 cents below its 50sma.  On the Day, SPY lost 1.66%, DIA lost 1.18%, and QQQ lost 2.32% as money fled from the high-growth tech names.  The VXX rose almost 6% to 26.10 and T2122 fell toward the bottom of the mid-range to 26.60.  As mentioned, 10-year bond yields spiked to 2.771% while Oil (WTI) fell over 3.5% to $94.80/barrel.

During the afternoon, the Biden Admin. began preparing the public for a Consumer Price Index report that will show that “inflation is extraordinarily elevated.”  This will be a follow-up on February’s CPI coming in a 7.9%, which was the highest level recorded since January 1982.  The March CPI Index will come out this morning. In that same vein, the Biden Administration announced is set to allow fuel to contain a higher percentage of ethanol in an effort to reduce gas prices.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

On the Russian invasion story, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt, because it offered to pay the bondholders in Rubles (held in a Russian bank account and not movable during sanctions).  However, it also became clear that limited/targeted sanctions were not having much strategic impact so far, although they may be hurting the Russian Mains Street.  It seems the rise in energy and food price spikes have greatly increased the value of Russian energy (Nat. Gas, Oil, and Coal) and Ag (Wheat) exports, while current sanctions have limited many imports.  The upshot of all this is that the Russian current-account surplus is the largest it has been since at least 1994 according to Bloomberg.  As a result, Russia added $3.4 billion to its war chest in the first quarter. On this news, Ukrainian President Zelensky again called for Western sanctions on Russian oil sales. Overnight, the WTO lowered its estimate of international trade growth from +4.7% to +3.0% due to the impacts of the Russian invasion.

On the ground, Russia began its renewed offensive in the Donbas overnight. The US and UK are investigating reports that Russians used chemical weapons in Mariupol on Monday. However, Russia vehemently denies the allegation.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly red, with the exception of mainland China.  Shenzhen (+2.05%), Shanghai (+1.46%), and Hong Kong (+0.52%) were the only green in the region.  Meanwhile, Japan (-1.81%), Singapore (-0.99%), and South Korea (-0.98%) paced broader losses.  The same is true in Europe, where stocks are mostly red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.43%), DAX (-0.93%), and CAC (-0.64%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.03% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.02% open at this hour.  However, 10-year bond yields are on the move higher again to 2.792% and Oil (WTI) is up 4.1% to $98.14 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday includes March CPI (8:30 am), 10-year Bond Auction (1 pm), and Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  There is also a Fed speaker (Brainard at 12:10 pm).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day are ACI and KMX, both before the open.

LTA Scanning Software

The big CPI number is likely to drive at least the start of the day as markets are flat until the print at 8:30 am. What is harder to gauge is whether the expectations of an “extraordinarily high” number are already baked into the market (resulting in a muted response) or whether traders will be “shocked” by the news. If it is already baked in, we may be in a “wait and see” mode until earnings start again Wednesday. In either case, we should expect more volatility and be prepared for intraday reversals. That means continuing to be either being very nimble/quick, being hedged, or having loose enough stops (and the ability to withstand short-term pain) to ride out the whipsaw action. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Remember, big bank earnings start Wednesday and markets are closed Friday (Good Friday). So, you don’t have to chase trades early this week. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GPN, AMCR, CCI, EOG, GFL, MRO, XOM, CMCSA, MNST, HES, TGT, CLX, FIS, LUMN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Musk Rejects Bd Seat But Has TWTR Ideas

On Friday, the large-caps opened flat and then put in a volatile day.  Meanwhile, the QQQ gapped down about a half of a percent and then after a morning bounce spent the afternoon selling off.  This left us with a black Doji in the SPY, a white Spinning Top in the DIA, and a black candle in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.27%, DIA gained 0.40%, and QQQ lost 1.40% as money rotated out of the high-growth tech stocks and into defensive sectors.  The VXX rose over 2.5% to 24.57 and T2122 came back up to near mid-range at 53.47.  10-year bond yields ended up again to 2.704% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to $97.90/barrel.

In miscellaneous business news, Elon Musk made the surprise announcement that he has rejected a seat on the TWTR board.  This came a day after he suggested a number of changes to the TWTR Blue subscription program, including having the company add the ability to accept payments in dogecoin.  Bloomberg reports that F may reopen the factories it closed in India to make electric vehicles.  This news comes 2 days after the company’s joint venture in Turkey has begun production of an electric version of the company’s Transit van. Elsewhere, Chinese EV maker NIO raised prices by about $1,600. That company has also had to halt production due to Covid closure of their plant.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

On the Russian invasion story, on Saturday, UK PM Johnson visited Kyiv to promise the Ukrainians armored vehicles, anti-ship missile systems, and $500 million in added World Bank loan guarantees.  This brings Britain’s loan guarantees for Ukraine to $1 billion.  Meanwhile, S&P downgraded Russia to “selective default” on Saturday.  Most analysts believe the country will at least partially default on the $649 to bond holders that is due today.  As of now, Russia has only promised to place the equivalent in Rubles in its own National Settlement Depository (meaning it would be inaccessible to the lenders until after sanctions).  Still, the World Bank said on Sunday that despite the “heavy sanctions” Russia faces, they expect the Russian economy to contract by only 11% for 2022 (compared to 45% for Ukraine).

Economic news for later this holiday-shortened week includes March CPI, 10-year note auction, and Federal Budget Balance on Tuesday.  Wednesday brings March PPI and Oil Inventories.  On Thursday we get March Retail Sales, March Import/Export Indices, Weekly Jobless Claims, February Bus. Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and a Fed speaker.  US Markets are closed for Good Friday, but we get NY Empire State Mfg. Index and March Industrial Production numbers.  Also, remember that Friday is Tax Day in the US.

Overnight, the Asian markets were red across the board, with the lone exception of Australia (+0.10%) which eked out a small gain.  Shenzhen (-3.67%), Hong Kong (-3.03%), and Shanghai (-2.61%) led the region lower after higher-than-expected Chinese Consumer and Producer Price news showed that inflation is running at 8.3% in that country.  In Europe, stocks are mixed at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.28%), DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (+0.74%) are typical of the spread across the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a red start to the morning.  The DIA implies a flat -0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.71% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are also spiking again to 2.759% and Oil (WTI) is down more than 3.75% to $94.58/barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  However, Fed member Bostic speaks at 9:30 am.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

Notable Earnings Reports for this week include a slow start with none on Monday.  However, on Tuesday we get ACI and KMX.  Then Wednesday earnings ramp back up with BBBY, BLKL, DAL, FAST, FRC, INFY, JPM, and SJR.  On Thursday we get ALLY, C, ERIC, GS, MS, PNC, PGR, RAD, STT, TSM, USB, UNH, and WFC.  There are no earnings scheduled for Friday.

LTA Scanning Software

The lack of economic news or earnings this morning has traders searching for a clue ahead of the open. Still, the war continues in Ukraine, China has realized they have serious inflation (which is a problem given that they are still easing to promote growth), and earnings season kicks off again on Wednesday. So, we may see more tepid moves and volume today as markets wait for the next shoe to drop. With all this said, we should expect more volatility and be prepared for intraday reversals. That means either being very nimble/quick, being hedged, or having loose enough stops (and the ability to withstand short-term pain) to ride out the whipsaw action. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Remember, big bank earnings start Wednesday and markets are closed Friday (Good Friday). So, you don’t have to chase trades early this week. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WEAT, AAP, STX, TGT, NKE, SYY, DIS, CSCO, KLAC, AMAT, HAS, ROKU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Little News But Downgrades Galore

Stocks opened just on the Southside of flat on Thursday before selling off slightly in the morning.  Then we saw a reversal and strong rally that lasted until we got a pullback the last half hour of the day.  This left us with indecisive, Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY gained 0.50%, DIA gained 0.35%, and QQQ gained 0.24%.  The VXX fell 1.35% to 24.05 and T2122 rose a bit to 36.96.  10-year bond yields surged again to 2.665% and Oil (WTI) rose just less than 1% to $97.13/barrel.

US Consumer debt jumped by almost $42 billion in February.  Debt levels rose to a record $4.5 trillion.  That was a much higher rate than the January increase and signals the impacts on consumers, which are being stretched thin by inflation.  Credit card debt alone jumped almost 21% in the month, compared to a 4% increase back in January.  This begins investors worrying about missed payments and bad debt collection and write-off impacts on creditors and especially regional banks (card issuers). This probably accounts for the fact that consumer confidence is at a 10-year low.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

BAC market analysts turned bearish on the economy overnight, lowering ratings on the entire transportation and homebuilding industries.  They also expressed concern over the banking sector not showing the profit gains that are expected in typical rising rate environments.  The bottom line is that they now expect a recession and almost immediate rotation into defensive sectors and assets (such as bonds).  Are they late to the party…you be the judge?

On the Russian invasion story, Congress voted to approve the stripping of Russia of its most-favored-nation trade status and also banned Russian oil and gas imports.  Less reported but more importantly, earlier the US re-enacted (by unanimous Senate vote) the World War II “Lend-Lease” program and has removed the 5-year limit on the duration of loans.  The bill also declares the conflict in Ukraine began with the ceasing of Crimea.  This implies the US will back Ukraine through the end of the conflict (years if needed), including the recapture of Crimea.  On the other side of things, Germany urged their banks and gas purchasing companies to keep their contracts with Russia Gazprom.  In addition, Hungary bought a stake in Russian Sberbank in a sign of support for Putin by his friend Hungarian PM Orban.  MSFT also announced it had used a court order to disable 7 internet domains used by Russia to hack Ukrainian targets such as media organizations and government agencies.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside in modest trading.  India (+0.82%), Taiwan (+0.62%), Shanghai and Australia (both +0.47%) led the gains.  Meanwhile, Singapore (-0.62%) was the main loser with a couple of other exchanges just on the red side of flat.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board (with the lone exception of Russia’s -1.18%) at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.97%), DAX (+1.31%), and CAC (+1/37%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.40% open, the SPY is implying a +0.33% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.34% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up again to 2.688% and Oil (WTI) is down to $95.95/barrel in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to the WASDE (World Agriculture) Report at noon.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

LTA Scanning Software

As the premarkets look modestly higher this morning, we are still looking at a down week at this point. A lack of economic news and/or earnings leaves traders to focus on news such as the Russian overnight bombing of a railway station full of evacuees and market analysts becoming more convinced recession is coming to an economy near you sometime in the next two quarters. These will be limited headwinds for the bulls. With all this said, we should expect more volatility (just like yesterday’s big intraday reversal) and be prepared. That means either being very nimble/quick, being hedged, or having loose enough stops (and the ability to withstand short-term pain) to ride out the whipsaw action. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Remember that it’s Friday and we have a weekend news cycle ahead. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OLLI, HBIO, TLRY, X, ORCL, MRO, BITO, XLF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Jobless Claims and Fed’s Bullard Ahead

Markets gapped down significantly Wednesday and then ground sideways, first in a fairly tight range, but then in a very volatile way to end the day.  This left us with gap-down, indecisive candles in all 3 major indices.  The SPY printed a Doji while the DIA and QQQ printed Spinning Top candles.  On the day, SPY lost 0.99%, DIA lost 0.43%, and QQQ lost 2.17%.  The VXX fell 1% to 24.55 and T2122 dropped to 28.39.  10-year bond yields pulled back over the day but still spiked higher to 2.59% and Oil (WTI) fell 4.85% to $97.02/barrel.

The Fed minutes released Wednesday afternoon told us that the Fed has reached a consensus to begin reducing the FOMC Balance Sheet by $95 billion/month probably starting in May.  This is twice the rate compared to the last time the Fed shrunk its balance sheet and may leave bond markets starved for supply even as traders try to flee to the safety of bonds.  (This will fight against the Fed’s attempt to raise rates since higher bond prices mean lower yields.)  There was also a strong hint that at least some of the interest rate hikes ahead will be 0.50% hikes.  These are clear signs the Fed is now hawkish and will be aggressive in its fight against inflation.  While this caused considerable volatility in the afternoon today, buckle up as the most Hawkish member of the Fed (Bullard) will be speaking today.  (He previously called for a full percentage hike by the first of July.)

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Click for video

During the day, Oil Inventories came in much higher than expected.  The consensus forecast had called for a 2 million barrel drawdown, but inventories came in showing a 2.4-million-barrel increase.  This came the same day that Congress took turns blasting top executives from major oil companies.  Executives from XOM, CVX, BP, SHEL, PXD, and DVN all took turns being berated for windfall profits as well as increasing their buyback plans and dividends rather than increasing production.  The companies were also blasted for investing in Russian projects after Russia ceased and annexed Crimea.

In other market news, BRKB (Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway) revealed that it has taken a $4.2 billion position in HPQ, causing the computer and printer company stock to soar as much as 17% in premarket trading.  Elsewhere, Chinese company Tencent has shut down its fledgling rival to AMZN subsidiary Twitch (video game streaming platform).  This comes after Chinese regulators killed a merger between the two video game streaming platforms that Tencent had major stakes in.  This eliminates the only major global rival to AMZN in that growing niche market. Also this morning, CAG reported beats on both lines while STZ beat on revenue at the same time it reported a miss on earnings.

Overnight, the Asian markets red across the board.  Taiwan (-1.96%), Japan (-1.65%), and Shenzhen (-1.65%) led the region lower.  However, losses were widespread and only New Zealand (-0.03%) was anywhere near flat on the day.  In Europe, we see a different story altogether.  Stocks are green across the board with only two minor exceptions of the FTSE (-0.07%) and Norway (-0.27%) at mid-day.  The DAX (+0.71%) and CAC (+0.70%) are typical of the continent with even Russia (+1.17%) gaining in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a slightly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.31% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 2.607% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.23% to $98.35 in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and 4 speakers (Fed member Bullard at 9 am, Treasury Sec. Yellen at 10:30 am, Fed member Bostic at 2 pm, and Fed member Williams at 4:05 pm.  The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day are CAG, STZ, and LW all before the open.  There are no major earnings announcements scheduled for after the close.

LTA Scanning Software

After a day and a half of markets being spooked by Fed doves, this morning we hear from the staunchest hawk among Fed members. Premarkets are not running scared in the face of this prospect. So, it may be a case of investors already “cooking in” a worst-case and feeling like Bullard’s proposed medicine won’t be so bad. At any rate, stocks are on the green side of flat heading into his talk. That and Weekly Jobless claims are the only news to worry about in premarket. However, we also have 3 other Fed speakers who might rock the boat later in the day. So, maybe markets have found a level to consolidate or find some support. However, expect more volatility as traders continue to try to guess how inflation, rising interest rates, and a potential hard landing will shake out across the market. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FIGS, HBIO, PYPL, SQ, DOCU, BABA, MCD, ORCL, PFE, TT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Skip to toolbar