Tuesday saw a divergence at the open as SPY opened just 0.09% higher, QQQ opened 0.02% lower, but DIA gapped up 0.63%.  However, after that, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways the rest of the day.  The were a short 15-minute spike higher as soon as Fed Chair Powell finished speaking, but it sold right back down over the next 15-minutes.  This action gave us indecisive Doji candles in the SPY (black body) and QQQ (white body).  Meanwhile, DIA printed a gap-up, black-body candle.  All three major index ETFs remains well below their T-line (8ema) and never came close to a retest.  This happened on average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (+0.13%) the only sector able to hand onto green territory.  Meanwhile, Utilities (-1.38%) was by far the weakest sector.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.20%, DIA gained 0.18%, and QQQ gained 0.01%.  VXX lost 3.40% to close at 15.08 and T2122 rose but remained deep in its oversold territory at 2.80.  10-year bond yields jumped higher again to 4.665% and Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat at $85.31 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a nothing day overall.  However, DIA popped higher at the open (presumably on strong earnings data) but then also sold off harder than the other major index ETFs.  The net result was an indecisive day where price ended up little moved.  However, it could be said to be a rest day after Monday’s strong Bearish move (including Bull trap).

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included March Building Permits, which came in lower than expected at 1.458 million (compared to a forecast of 1.514 million and the February reading of 1.523 million).  At the same time, March Housing Starts were also down at 1.321 million (versus a forecast of 1.480 million and the Feb. value of 1.549 million).  This amounted to a 14.7% decline from February after a 2.4% decline was forecasted.  Later, March Industrial Production were just as anticipated at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% and a February +0.4% reading). Then the API Weekly Crude Oil stocks

In FOMC speak, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson seemed to revert to the old “higher for longer” stance from late in 2023.  Jefferson said, “it will be appropriate to hold in place the current restrictive stance of policy for longer (if inflation fails to slow as expected).”  He continued, “My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further, with the policy rate held steady at its current level, and that the labor market will remain strong, with labor demand and supply continuing to rebalance.”  Later, Fed Chair Powell said, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.” However, he then continued, saying, “policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face.”  (The latter statement easing fears of a rate hike somewhat.)  He went on to summarize, “Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us.”  Then, Powell got into details, noting, “12 months core PCE inflation, which is one of the most important things, is estimated to have been little change in March.”  In speaking about the labor market, Powell said, “Our labor market has been moving into better balance over the past year,” … “(Strong demand for workers) has been met by a substantial increase in the workforce due both to rising labor force participation and a substantial increase in immigration.”  

After the close, HWC, IBKR, OMC, and UAL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, JBHT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, UNH said it would take a $1.6 billion hit in 2024 from the hack of its subsidiary which caused widespread and weeks-long shutdown of medical billing and reimbursement.  At the same time, a JPM regulatory filing noted that CEO Dimon had completed the sale of $33 million of his JPM shares.  This completed his previously planned 1 million share sale (out of 8.6 million shares held).  Later MSFT announced it is investing $1.5 billion in G42, an UAE-based AI firm. (G42 is run by UAE’s national security adviser.)  G42 said it would cut ties with Chinese hardware suppliers for its data centers as part of the deal.  Elsewhere, AL state lawmakers have passed a bill barring the state from providing incentives to any company that voluntarily recognizes a union.  (The bill is aimed at preventing union recognition prior to a vote of the workforce.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, a US district judge dismissed 25 claims that were among the hundreds of cases filed against META, which allege the company concealed from the public that Facebook and Instagram were harmful to children.  Th 25 claims dismissed has accused META CEO Zuckerberg of personal responsibility (and liability) for not disclosing this information to the public.

So far this morning, ABT, ASML, BKU, FHN, and USB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CFG and TRV both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  (PLD reports closer to the opening bell.)  It is worth noting that ASML has lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Shenzhen (+2.48%), Shanghai (+2.14%), and Taiwan (+1.56%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Thailand (-2.11%) and Japan (-1.32%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only two of 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+1.23%), DAX (+0.51%), and FTSE (+0.60%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.22% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.195 open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at a high 4.657% and Oil (WTI) is off by half of a percent to $84.88 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and the Fed Beige Book (2 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Members Mester (5:30 p.m.) and Bowman (6:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, PLD, TRV, and USB.  Then, after the close, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, LBRT, SNV, and WTFC report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, March Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, and Bostic twice).  Finally, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, TSM, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL.  Lastly, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.

In geopolitical news, Russia has stepped up its bombing of Kharkiv (Ukraine’s second largest city) in an attempt to make it the city uninhabitable.  The new strategy is massive bombing of residential housing and utilities and then following up with a “double tap” (second wave of attacks on the same targets) one to two hours later.  The idea is that if the population is denied water, electric, and housing …and rescuers as well as aid workers are also taken out…then the city will become uninhabitable.  This is designed to force the 1.4 million people living in Kharkiv to flee to other cities, opening up Kharkiv for conquest and putting additional stress on cities further West due to the immigrant flows.  (It also becomes harder to defend a location while also allowing the civilian population to pass through said position.) Elsewhere, Treasury Sec. Yellen said Tuesday that new sanctions on Iran are being considered.  Yellen, talked about not only the attack on Israel, but also Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea that are impacting global economic stability.  She told the AP that she will be working with her counterparts at the IMF Spring Meeting this week to hammer out another round of sanctions on the Iranian regime.

In miscellaneous news, the SEC now blocked the use of third-party messaging apps and texts from Wall Street firm employee phones.  Elsewhere, in political news, the House GOP, and especially the Twitter faction of the GOP, have brought drama and discord back to the House.  House Speaker Johnson told the GOP Caucus that he intends to bring forth four separate individual bills this week, one for military aid to Ukraine, one for military aid for Israel, one for military aid for Taiwan and the Philippines (to hold China in check), and a final bill to ban TikTok from the US.  This did not go over well with the far-right MAGA faction.  (Even if they are separate votes.)  Specifically, Rep. Massie (KY), asked Johnson to resign as Speaker.  He then told reporters he supports and seconds the previous MTG motion to vacate the Speaker.  Beyond that drama, if the four bills are brought for a vote, all are expected to pass.  Then for some procedural reason they will be delivered to the Senate as one packaged bill.  The Senate GOP does not like that idea as they have already passed aid to the first three and don’t want to vote on the TikTok bill.  (One of the largest GOP donors, Jeff Yass, owns about $30 billion of TikTok’s parent corporation ByteDance while BLK also owns a similar-sized piece.  A forced sale could cost both billions.) 

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are trying again this morning, but are having only small and not particularly decisive gains in any of the three major index ETFs. All three are giving us small, white-bodied candles in the premarket. However, all three have larger upper wicks (compared to the candle bodies). The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain well below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term has also turned bearish and the longer-term market remains Bullish but trend is broken and is clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, all three of the major index ETFs now a fair distance below their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deeply in its oversold range. So, at the very least, the Bears are in need of some rest. (Just remember markets can remain oversold a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green early with only INTC (-0.39%) pushing to the downside. Be careful of whipsaws, but today is looking more indecisive again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gave us a Bull trap Monday as SPY gapped up 0.82%, DIA gapped up 0.91%, and QQQ gapped up 0.86%.  However, that was the last of the joy for the Bulls as we then started an all-day, wavy sell off in all three major index ETFs that recrossed the gap and continued strongly South.  All three then flattened out the last 40 minutes of the day.  The action gave up large, gap-up, outside day, black candles with tiny wicks on the bottom of the body.  SPY and QQQ retested and failed their T-lines (8emas).  This all happened on above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.01%) way out in front leading the market lower.  Meanwhile, it was Communications Services (-0.15%) that held up far better than any other sector.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.23%, DIA lost 0.66%, and QQQ lost 1.65%.  VXX spiked another 5.54% higher to close at a still very historically low 15.61 and T2122 dropped even further into the low end of its oversold territory at 1.73.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.612% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $85.65 per barrel. So, Monday was the Bear’s Day again. The three major index charts all look clearly bearish now.  However, it is worth remembering that the worst of the  index ETFs (DIA) is still less that 5.75% from its all-time high (not below the high close, close, but down from the actual all-time high).  So, we aren’t truly in a Bear market and not even in a correction at this point…at least yet.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included March Core Retail Sales, which came in extremely hot at +1.1% (compared to a +0.5% forecast and February’s +0.6% reading).  Meanwhile, March Retail Sales was not as hot as the “core” at +0.7% (versus a +0.4% forecast but down from February’s +0.9%).  At the same time, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was weaker than predicted at -14.30 (compared to a -5.20 forecast but better than February’s -20.90).  Later, February Business Inventories rose more than anticipated at +0.4% (versus a +0.3% forecast and a +0.0% January value).  At the same time, February Retail Inventories also were +0.4% (compared to a +0.4% forecast and up a tick from January’s +0.3%). 

In stock news, on Monday, BP announced it had cut over 10% of its electric vehicle charging business unit workforce (still only 100 jobs) as well as pulling out of several markets.  BP said its bet on rapid growth in commercial EV fleets just didn’t pay off.  (BP will continue its operations in the US, Britain, Germany, and China markets while pulling out of eight other countries.)  At the same time, Clearlake Capital announced it had indeed offered to acquire BLKB for $80 per share.  (This was a premium over Friday’s $76.72 close and well above Clearlake’s original $71/share offer.)  Later, BNPQY (BNP Paribas) agreed to buy a 9% stake in Belgian Insurer Ageas for $780 million.  This makes the French bank the largest shareholder in Ageas.  At the same time, Reuters reported that EQT will sell some of its PA state Natural Gas assets to EQNR in exchange for $500 million and some of EQNR’s “Appalachian Basin” assets.

Elsewhere, ADBE announced it is in the early stages of letting OpenAI and other AI tools into its widely-used video editing software.  The company would allow those tools in via an app, which could then be monetized.  At the same time, TSLA confirmed it will lay off 10% of its global workforce (about 14,000 jobs) as electric vehicle sales fall.  Later, GM announced it will move its headquarters to new skyscraper offices further into downtown Detroit after 20 years in its riverfront campus.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, META announced it will temporarily suspend Threads (its Twitter knock off) in Turkey on April 29 to comply with provisional orders from the Turkish competition authority. (META also said it will appeal the order.) Later, COIN asked two courts for permission to appeal part of its lawsuit against the SEC.  At the same time, TPR received both EU and Japanese approval for its $8.5 billion deal to buy CPRI, (US approval from the FTC is still pending.)  Later, MGM sued the FTC in hope of blocking an FTC probe into the casino’s 2023 hack that hobbled it last year.  The MGM suit claims the FTC has no jurisdiction because the company feels it is not subject to consumer financial data rules since it is not an interstate bank.  At the same time, the NHTSA said it has opened an investigation into 2023 GM Cadillac Lyric cars over the loss of brake assist during operation.  At the same time, PLL announced it had received NC state approval for its lithium “mining” operations and can begin the required construction. 

Elsewhere, the US State Dept. approved the sale of “aircraft support” for training and support aircraft to Iraq.  This will result in a $140 million contract for NOC. At the same time, AVGO was questioned by EU antitrust regulators over change (massive price increases, as much as 20x in cases) in its pricing after its acquisition of VMW.  (In many cases AVGO changed VMW to a subscription-only model, simply telling customers who had bought lifetime licenses they now will pay annually or lose access to what they bought.)  Later, LMT was awarded a $17 billion contract to develop the next generation of interceptors for use against incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported the US Dept. of Justice is preparing an antitrust lawsuit against LYV.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Taiwan (-2.68%), Shenzhen (-2.29%), and South Korea (-2.28%) led the region lower on broad-based and large losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only one of 15 bourses in the green (barely).  The CAC (-1.23%), DAX (-1.31%), and FTSE (-1.40%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed bounce after Monday’s downdraft.  The DIA implies a +0.50% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.01% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are popping again to 4.651% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.28% to $85.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes March Building Permits and March Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), March Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Williams (12:30 p.m.) and Fed Chair Powell (1:15 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BAC, BK, ERIC, JNJ, MS, NTRS, PNC, and UNH.  Then, after the close, AMX, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and the Fed Beige Book are reported.  We also hear from Fed Members Mester and Bowman.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, March Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, and Bostic twice).  Finally, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, PLD, TRV, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, LBRT, SNV, and WTFC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, TSM, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL.  Lastly, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.

So far this morning, BAC, BK, CBSH, JNJ, MS, PNC, and UNH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ERIC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NTRS crushed on revenue (doubling expectations) but also missed significantly on earnings.  The only guidance out so far is from PNC, which lowered its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, several Israelis, including PM Netanyahu and the spokesman for Israeli Defense Forces said they will retaliate against Iran for the weekend’s large, telegraphed, and ineffective retaliatory strike on their country.  Israel said it would choose the time and place, but diplomacy is holding so far with hope that Israel will just strike Iranian proxies which participated, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and various Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq.  Elsewhere, Chinese GDP was above pace in Q1 at +5.3%.  However, most of that growth came in January and February as the country’s economy slumping in March.  Both Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Output fell well short of estimates in March in addition to a decline in home sales.  For his part, Chinese President Xi made statements pushing back on US and EU pressure to refocus the Chinese economy away from industrial growth and toward stimulating consumer spending.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are trying to rebound from Monday’s drubbing but are not having a ton of success yet. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket flat, traded lower, and have pushed back higher to form white-body candles that are in the green compared to Monday’s huge black candle. (DIA has done by far the best job of this push-back.) However, only a small fraction of Monday’s losses have been recovered so far in the early session. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ remain well below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term has also turned bearish and the longer-term market remains Bullish but trend is broken and is clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, all three of the major index ETFs now a fair distance below their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deeply in its oversold range. So, at the very least, the Bears are in need of some rest. (Just remember markets can remain oversold a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green early with only TSLA (-2.40%) truly pushing to the downside (more than 2.1% worst off than the other nine big dogs so far in the premarket.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Fridays brought us a gap lower to start the day. SPY gapped down 0.69%, DIA gapped down 0.58%, and QQQ gapped down 0.97%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways in a tight range.  DIA broke out of its sideways mover first, heading South shortly after 10 a.m.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ followed DIA by starting their selloffs at 10:30 a.m.  Those selloffs continued in waves the rest of the day in all three with just a modest bounce up off the lows the last 40 minutes.  This action gave us gap-down, black-bodied candles with both upper and lower wicks.  The SPY and QQQ candles also crossed back below their T-lines (8ema).  This all happened on average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.09%) and Consumer Cyclicals (-2.08%) out in front leading the rest of the market lower.  Meanwhile, it was Utilities (-1.09%) holding up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.38%, DIA lost 1.20%, and QQQ lost 1.59%.  VXX spiked 8.83% higher to close at a still historically low 14.79 and T2122 dropped back down the very low end of oversold territory at 2.92.  10-year bond yields dropped to 4.52% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.55% to $85.49 per barrel.  So, Friday was the Bear’s Day.  Markets gapped lower briefly held up and then resumed their move down (albeit in a wavy motion) the rest of the day, ending on a modest up wave.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included March Export Price Index, which came in lower but as expected at +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but well down from February’s +0.7% value).  At the same time, the March Import Price Index was higher than anticipated at +0.4% (versus both forecast and February values of +0.3%).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was lower than predicted at 77.9 (compared to a 79.0 forecast and 79.4 March value).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also down a bit at 77.0 (versus the 77.6 forecast and March 77.4 reading).  Meanwhile, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were up to +3.1% (versus a +2.9% forecast and March value).  On a longer timeframe, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also higher at +3.0% (compared to a forecast and March reading of +2.8%).

In FOMC speak, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said inflation was too high for the central bank to cut interest rates.  Schmid said, “With inflation still running above 2 percent and labor markets still tight, it is appropriate that monetary policy remain restrictive.”  He went on to say, “achieving better balance in the labor market will likely be necessary (before cutting).”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said, “We’ve had multiple (CPI) inflation readings that were higher than we wanted, but PCE is the better measure…If we start getting better (PCE) readings that show us that arc of inflation coming down…that will make us feel a lot better about where we are…If PCE is reinflating – we will stabilize prices.”  Goolsbee went on to repeat previous comments that housing inflation is the most important and damaging area to watch.  Still later, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that there is no urgency to cut rates.  She said, “Policy’s in a good place right now, and I need to be fully confident that inflation is on track to come down to 2%, which is our definition of price stability, before we would consider a rate cut.”   

In stock news, on Friday, Reuters reported that sources now indicate that HUBS may be considering a non-GOOGL acquisition suitor.  The sources indicated that potential antitrust opposition and difficulty may force HUBS to go a different route, despite GOOGL having been working with MS to secure financing for an all-cash bid to buy HUBS.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that a pet osteoarthritis drug from ZTS has been found to be linked to various adverse health events.  (ZTS gapped lower and closed down 7.84% on the news.)  At midday, despite political and potential regulatory opposition, X shareholders approved the $14.9 billion takeover bid from Nippon Steel.  Later, ROKU said that more than 576k of its customer accounts were impacted by a second cyberattack that the company identified while investigating a different hack of 15,000 customer accounts.  ROKU said that hackers did not gain access to “full credit card numbers” and it has identified only 400 cases where the stolen information was used to make unauthorized purchases of streaming service subscriptions.  At the same time, Reuters reported that SPR is limiting overtime and halted hiring as production declines due to BA’s lower output of 737 MAX planes.  After the close, TSLA said it cut the price of its “Full Self Driving” subscription by more than 50% (from $199/mo. to $99/mo.) as it seeks to drive broader adoption amidst weakening demand.  Also after the close, GOOGL announced it is beginning the process of removing links to CA news articles for CA-located viewers.  This is in response to a CA bill (not passed yet) that would require content providers to pay CA news sites for content.  Then, on Saturday, Reuters reported that CRM is in advanced talks to buy INFA.  (INFA has a market value of $38.48 billion as of Friday.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday a Brazilian judge suspended the Chairman of PBR over having a conflict of interest now that he also holds the Minister of Energy role in the Brazilian government.  (The court previously suspended another board member citing the company’s failure to comply with company bylaws when appointing that board member.)  At the same time, AAPL lost its motion to dismiss a $1 billion lawsuit in the UK which alleges the company charged 1,500 UK-based app developers unfair commission fees on the purchase of their apps while prohibiting them from selling the apps through other channels.  Later, the EU approved ILMN’s plans to divest cancer diagnostic test maker Grail.  (The EU Competition Committee had ordered the divestiture in 2022, even though ILMN had closed the deal before the EU decision was made.)   At the same time, UBER and LYFT announced they will remains in operation in Minneapolis after the City Council there voted Wednesday to delay implementation of its $15.57/hour minimum wage for rideshare drivers until July 1^st.  Later, the US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 throwing out a lower court ruling that will allow a broad group of truck drivers and other transport workers to file employment lawsuits rather than submit to arbitration.  (The lower court had ruled that the plaintiff did not qualify to sue because, even though he was a truck driver, his company sold the goods he delivered rather than transportation services.)  The ruling is a huge blow to AMZN, WMT, and many other companies that employ delivery and transport workers that may have causes for action. 

Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced it is opening an investigation into the F recall of 42,000 SUVs over fuel leak concerns.  F is planning to make a software update rather than replace fuel injectors that may crack and leak.  At the same time, the US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 companies “failing to disclose impactful trends” is not securities fraud.  Later, AAPL denied it has been violating court orders governing its App Store.  AAPL told a US district judge Rogers (who had overseen the Epic Games lawsuit against AAPL) that rather than violating the court orders, it was just trying to prevent AAPL “tools and technologies” from being given to app developers for free.  They went on to say Epic wants the court to micromanage AAPL App Store operations in order to make Epic more profitable.  (Oddly, yes that was the whole point of the original lawsuit.  To force competition in a way that would allow Epic to be more profitable by not paying AAPL 30% of every sale and prohibit them selling through other channels.)  After the close, US House GOP representatives criticized the Biden Administration, blaming the President for somehow allowing INTC to sell chips to Huawei, which allowed the Chinese phone maker to unveil a new laptop powered by an INTC “AI chip.”  (The chips were shipped to China under a 2019, Trump Administration granted, license that were excluded from Trump era sanctions and not subject to Biden-era sanctions.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side with only Shenzhen (+1.53%) and Shanghai (+1.26%) in the green.  Taiwan (-1.38%), India (-1.10%), and Singapore (-1.04%) paced the 10 losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see mostly green at midday.  11 of the 15 bourses are in the green with the CAC (+0.87%), DAX (+0.89%), and FTSE (-0.32%) leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the week.  The DIA implies a +0.34% open, the SPY is implying a +0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.55% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 4.581% (perhaps somewhat on a safety trade after the Iran-Israeli weekend news) and Oil (WTI) is off eight-tenths of a percent to $85.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes March Core Retail Sales, March Retail Sales, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), Feb. Business Inventories and Feb. Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and Fed member Daly speaks.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GS, MTB, and SCHW.  There are no major reported set for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get March Building Permits, March Housing Starts, March Industrial Production, and API Weekly Crude Oil stocks.  Then on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and the Fed Beige Book are reported.  We also hear from Fed Members Mester and Bowman.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, March Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, and Bostic twice).  Finally, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from BAC, BK, ERIC, JNJ, MS, NTRS, PNC, UNH, AMX, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL.  Then Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, PLD, TRV, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, LBRT, SNV, and WTFC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, TSM, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL.  Lastly, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.

So far this morning, GS and MTB reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (SCHW reports closer to the open.)

In geopolitical news, on Saturday, as expected, Iran launched over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles toward Israel.  This attack was Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s April 1 airstrike destroying a building of the Iranian embassy in Syria.  (That Israeli strike killed 16 people, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Generals.) The US shot down 75 of the Iranian drones and missiles with Israel shooting down the vast majority of the rest.  It is interesting that Iran signaled the attack beforehand (by telling the US to get out of the way so they don’t get hit) and had already announced that they consider the matter complete unless Israel retaliates…making that announcement before most of the drones and missiles had even reached Israeli airspace.  There were no deaths and one injury from the Iranian attack as well as minimal damage to the air base from which the Israeli April 1 attack was launched.  President Biden spoke to Israeli PM Netanyahu urging him to “take the win” (two major Iranian military commanders killed, versus no Israeli deaths at all AND another public demonstration of the power of Israeli air defenses).  Biden also led G7 leaders to making a public statement of unconditional support for Israel without any mention of the Israeli strike in Damascus.  As of Sunday, these efforts had won the day with PBS reporting that Israeli War Cabinet resources said an immediate retaliatory strike had been called off following the Biden call.  Still, Netanyahu has publicly vowed Israeli retaliation at a later time.   In short, diplomacy is in control in the short term.  However, tensions are high and oil markets, while calming, are still likely to be on edge.

In late-breaking news, AAPL iPhone sales saw their steepest decline since COVID hit.  Chinese sales in particular fell sharply as Huawei, Xiaomi, Transsion, and OPPO made significant market share gains.  Later, Reuters reported sources and an internal TSLA memo during premarket that said TSLA plans to lay off 10% of its workforce globally.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls have gapped all three major index ETFs higher to start the premarket. However, all three are also printing indecisive, small-body candles after the gap up. QQQ is retesting its T-line (8ema) from below. However, SPY, DIS, and QQQ remain below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range in the SPY and QQQ, where it is fair to say the Bulls are under strong pressure from the Bears. The DIA has already turned Bearish in the mid-term. Longer-term, markets remain Bullish but clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is now deeply in its oversold range. So, both sides could run if the find some momentum, but the Bulls have much more slack to work with at this point. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning with only AAPL (-0.60%) and TSLA (-1.54%) pushing to the downside on bad premarket news.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher Thursday as SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA gapped up 0.24%, and QQQ gapped up 0.42% at the open.  At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off, recrossing the gap and reaching the lows of the day about 10:30 a.m.  From there, all three rallied steadily until 2:45 p.m. before limping sideways with a modest bearish trend the rest of the session.  This action gave us a gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top type candle in the SPY that crossed just back up above its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, QQQ gave us a gap-up, large, white-bodied candle that crossed strongly above its T-line.  At the same time, DIA gave us a modest ga-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top and outside day candle.  This happened on just above-average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, only four of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.53%) way out in front (by more than a percent) leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, it was Financial Services (-0.52%) was the biggest laggard.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.75%, DIA was flat, gaining 0.01%, and QQQ gained 1.60%.  VXX fell 2.02% to close at very low 13.58 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to remain at the low end of its mid-range at 23.53.  10-year bond yields climbed again to 4.582% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.71% to $85.60 per barrel.  So, Thursday, saw a more modest reaction to the upside on good PPI data after Wednesday’s strong reaction to the downside on bad CPI data.  However, we also saw some whipsaw with a rejection of the gap and then a slow, steady reaffirmation of the gap sentiment. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit lower than expected at 211k (compared to a 216k forecast but down from the prior week’s 222k).  For ongoing claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher at 1,817k (versus a forecast of 1,800k and up from the prior week’s 1,789k).  At the same time, the March Core PPI (month-on-month) were as predicted at +0.2% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and down from February’s +0.3%).  On an annual basis, March Core PPI actually increased to +2.4% (versus a +2.3% forecast and the February +2.1% reading).  On the headline side, March PPI (month-on-month) was lower than anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and well down from February’s +0.6%).  On an annual basis, March PPI was lower than predicted at +2.1% (versus a forecast of +2.2% but well of up the +1.6% in March 2023).  After the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was reported as down $2 billion on the week at $7.438 trillion (compared to the prior week’s $7.440 trillion).

In FOMC speak, Thursday, NY Fed President Williams told a banking group that they (banks) should be ready to tap the Fed liquidity using the Fed Discount Window if or when they face liquidity crunches.  Williams also said he still expects progress on inflation, although he believes there will be “bumps along the way.”  Later, Boston Fed President Collins stuck to the FOMC script, saying she sees no urgency to cut rates.  Collins said, “I do expect it will be appropriate to begin lowering the federal funds rate later this year,” … (However) “recent data suggest it may take more time than I had previously thought to gain greater confidence in inflation’s downward trajectory, before beginning to ease policy.” Collins went on to say she had “Less concern about labor market fragilities, combined with the possibility that policy is only modestly restrictive, also reduces the urgency to ease.”  Elsewhere, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “the latest numbers (it is unclear if this included PPI but did include CPI) did not increase my confidence” that price pressures are easing on a broad basis (which would be the prerequisite for his voting to cut rates).

In stock news, on Reuters reported Thursday that Norway’s largest pension fund (KLP) is planning to ask TSLA to begin collective bargaining at the upcoming shareholder meeting.  The crux of the issue is the Swedish TSLA mechanics strike, but the fund said the issue of collective bargaining was a broader issue.  Later, VLVLY (Volvo and Mack Truck) said it will build a new heavy-duty truck plant in Mexico to supplement its US production.  The plant is scheduled to be operational in 2026.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that private equity firm Clearlake is in talks for another attempt to take BLKB private.  (Clearlake already owns 18.9% of BLKB.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg also reported that AAPL is “nearing” an overhaul of its Mac computer line which would gain AI processing capability due to a new ARM-based CPU labeled “M4.”  Bloomberg says AAPL is expecting to unveil this new line at its June developer’s conference.  (Mac sales fell 27% in the fiscal year ended in September.  It unveiled new M3 Macs in October.)

Later, F announced it will begin shipping 144k redesigned F-150 and Ranger pickups to dealers.  The trucks were built, but held back until now to deal with quality problems.  (F spent $4.8 billion in 2023 to deal with warranty repairs.) At the same time, F reduced prices on various F-150 Lightning electric trucks by as much as $5,500.  Later, ADM expanded its recall of animal feed due to harmful levels of magnesium, calcium, sodium, and/or phosphorous.  At the same time, LUV told Reuters its expected deliveries of BA jets keep shrinking.  In March, LUV said they expected 46 new 737 MAX planes in 2024.  Now it expects only 20 of the planes this year, which will significantly impact operations.  This impacts not only capacity, but also costs since older jets cannot be retired and are more expensive to maintain.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the FAA issued a public notice of an airworthiness directive for BA 747-400F jets.  The directive would force all such jets to have cap seals to fastener collars inside the plan’s fuel tanks.  This came after FAA 737 investigations identified that BA had not been applying cap seals during production in order to cut costs.  At the same time, HPQ was hit with a trademark infringement suit from WEX, alleging HPQ is infringing on its trademark by naming a software product “HPQ Wex.”  Later, China sanctioned GD and a privately-held firm (General Atomics Aeronautical Systems) for selling arms to Taiwan.  (China seized and froze property of the two companies over the arms sales.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that UBS will need to retain between $10 billion and $15 billion in additional capital to meet new capitalization requirements from the Swiss government. This could put a “serious dent” in UBS share buyback plans for 2024.  Later, BHC won the appeal of the verdict which barred rival Alvogen from marketing a proposed generic version of Bausch’s diarrhea treatment until 2029.

Meanwhile, the EU announced it will decide on approval of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of X by May 17.  However, the approval is just a formality since neither company is headquartered in Europe and there are no competition concerns with either company at this time.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that MS is under investigation by multiple regulators, including the SEC, Office of the Comptroller of Currency, and various Treasury Dept. sub-agencies.  The investigations stem from the bank’s “lax” vetting of potential wealth management clients (true identities and how the client’s raised their wealth) focusing on foreign clients.  Elsewhere, Wednesday’s EPA announcement of new limits on toxic forever chemicals (PFAS) in water is expected to lead to a huge surge in lawsuits against MMM, DD, CC, CTVA, DOW, and other chemical makers who have dumped the chemicals into US waterways and ground water for decades.  (MMM settled a $10.3 billion suit with some US water systems in 2023, while CC, DD, and CTVA settled their own suit for $1.19 billion.  The EPA has given water utilities three years to meet strict “less than 10 parts per trillion” PFAS guidelines.  So, many new suits are expected as local water systems are unable to pay for the mitigation needed to remove PFAS from their water.  (PFAS are linked to many health conditions including liver problems, cholesterol level change, immune system deficiencies, high blood pressure, certain cancers, and many others.  The impacts are dosage and individual dependent.)

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board, with only Japan (+0.21%) in the green.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-2.18%), India (-1.03%) and South Korea (-0.93%) led the region lower.  However, in Europe, we see a green sweep across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.73%), DAX (+0.79%), and FTSE (+1.10%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.32% open, the SPY is implying a -0.44% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.59% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are “down” to 4.526% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.14% to $85.98 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes March Import Price Index and March Export Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  Fed member Bostic also speaks at 2:30 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, BLK, JPM, STT and WFC have all reported strong beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (C and PGR report closer to the opening bell.)  It is interesting to note that JPM is down sharply on this very good news.  WFC was even more volatile in the premarket but has settled on the green side after its report.  BLK and STT just gained on their beats, with BLK up 2.5% and STT up 3.75% so far on the news in the early session.

In energy news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that the UAE’s national oil company recently held talks with an aim toward acquiring BP.  Ultimately, the UAE decided BP would not be the right strategic fit.  However, this raises the idea that the incredibly deep-pocketed company could target any oil major if it was considering the $112 billion market cap BP.  In other energy news, the Interior Dept. announced on Thursday that it had surpassed its goal of permitting 25 gigawatts of clean energy projects for public lands by 2025.  As of now, the agency said they have permitted 29 GW of projects on public lands or enough to power 12 million homes.  32 GW of new projects are at various stages of approval.

In miscellaneous news, Rho Motion (market research firm) reported Thursday evening that global electric vehicle sales rose 12% during March (compared to March 2023). However, the increase was uneven with China seeing a 27% increase, the US a 15% increase, but Europe seeing a 9% decrease versus the prior year.  The firm had earlier predicted a 25% to 30% increase in 2024 but now says it anticipates EV sales to come in at the lower end of its projections.  Elsewhere, both the largest US airlines and their unions have asked President Biden to not approve any more flights between the US and China because of what they call “anti-competitive” policies that China is imposing on US air carriers.  (In addition, Chinese airlines are allowed to fly shorter routes between the two countries by flying through Russian airspace, which US airlines cannot do.)

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control again this morning. All three major index ETFs have printed modest (but certainly not small) black body candles to begin the premarket. The QQQ remains above its T-line (8ema) while the SPY has crossed below and DIA remains below their respective T-lines. So the short-term trend mostly bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range in the SPY and QQQ, where it is fair to say the Bulls are under strong pressure from the Bears. However, the DIA has already turned Bearish in the mid-term. Longer-term, markets remain Bullish but clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line. In addition, the T2122 indicator is now out of the oversold range but remains at the low end of its mid-range. So, both sides still have some room to run but clearly the Bulls have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red again this morning with only NFLX (+0.29%) and AMZN (+0.03%) hanging onto the green area. With that said, remember its Friday…pay day…so prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t forget to cut yourself a check. (Tax day is Monday.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, stocks gapped down after a tick upward in the CPI number.  The SPY gapped down 1.11%, DIA gapped down 1.02%, and QQQ gapped down 1.22% at the open.  However, from there, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways, wobbling along the opening level the rest of the day. This action gave us gap-down, indecisive candles in all three.  The SPY printed a white-body Doji, the DIA printed a black-body Doji, and the QQQ printed a white-body Spinning Top.  SPY and QQQ also gapped down through and remained below its T-line (8ema). This happened on above-average volume in the DIA and QQQ while SPY printed slightly below-average volume.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red as Utilities (-2.15%) was out in front leading the market lower.  Meanwhile, Energy (+0.15%) was the only green sector and held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.00%, DIA lost 1.11%, and QQQ lost 0.87%.  VXX gained 1.91% to close at a still very low 13.86 and T2122 plummeted down into the oversold territory at 10.53.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.548% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.15% to $86.22 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday, saw significant gap lower but then almost nothing except modest chop sideways the rest of the session. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included March Core CPI (month-on-month), that came in flat which made it a tick hotter than expected at +0.4% (compared to +0.3% forecast and a +0.4% February reading).  On an annual basis, March Core CPI also came in flat at +3.8% (versus to a forecast of +3.7% and the Feb. +3.8% value).  This led to a March CPI (month-on-month) of +0.4%, again flat but hotter than expected compared to a forecast of +0.3% and a February +0.4%.  On an annual basis, March CPI was +3.5% (compared to a +3.4% forecast and a up from the February +3.2% number).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories rose more than was predicted at +5.841 million barrels (versus a forecasted 0.900-million-barrel build, and even more than the prior week’s 3.210-million-barrel inventory build).  Later yet, the March Federal Budget Balance showed a larger than anticipated deficit of -$236.0 billion (compared to a -$209.4 billion forecast but well down from the February -$296.0 billion level).  However, to be fair the federal deficit was down 38% from $378 billion in March 2023 on both reduced spending and increased tax receipts.

In FOMC speak, the March FOMC Meeting minutes showed that Fed members were already disappointed prior to the recent (since the meeting) strong economic/inflation data.  However, the “typical policymaker” still felt three cuts in 2024 was going to be appropriate, despite their disappointment.  With that said, the minutes shows that the momentum toward fewer cuts in 2024 was already gathering some speed.  That was the “gist” of the rate discussion.  In terms of the Fed Balance Sheet, the minutes made it clear the FOMC will soon stop the reduction.  Policymakers were mostly thinking that in light of the lessons learned during the 2017-2019 tightening, it would be prudent to start easing the current reductions soon.  (The Fed has averaged $76 billion per month in drawdown over the last 12 months.) The minutes said, “Participants generally favor reducing the monthly pace of runoff by roughly half from the recent overall pace.”  The discussion showed that, in part, this would be because it would give more flexibility to the Fed in how it reduces “non-treasury bond holdings.”  (A primary goal of most Fed members is to get as near to an “all treasuries” balance sheet as possible.

In stock news, on Wednesday, the Wall Street journal reported that RBLX partnered with PUBM to increase video ad sales on its gaming platform.  (RBLX has 71 million daily users.)  Later, META unveiled it new in-house developed AI accelerator chip to be built on a 5nm process and produced by TSM.  (META still has planned to acquire about 350,000 NVDA AI accelerator chips this year.)  At the same time, UBER announced new security measures aimed at boosting (mostly female) passenger safety in the face of many lawsuits alleging UBER was deficient in preventing attacks (including by drivers) on passengers.  Later, Bloomberg reported that AMZN will stop paying developers to create applications for its Alexa devices/services in June.  At the same time, UMGNF (Universal Music Group) announced a partnership with Chinese Entertainment Company TF Entertainment which will add Chinese “C-Pop” performers to the service’s global offerings.  Later, DAL said it expects record Q2 revenue on the expectation of a summer travel boom. 

Elsewhere, STLA told (threatened?) Italian government officials Wednesday, that if Chinese automakers were allowed to open plants in Italy, the company would have to make unpopular decisions such as closing Italian plants.  The CEO of STLA said, “If we are under pressure, the only one thing we could do is to accelerate our efforts to increase productivity to be competitive.” (He implied that labor is much cheaper in other parts of the world.)  He continued, “Then we might not need so many plants as we have now.”  Later, VRTX announced it will buy ALPN for $4.9 billion in cash in order to gain access to the company’s kidney autoimmune disease treatment.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that Vietnam had ordered NFLX to stop advertising and distributing its games in the country before April 25.  (Vietnam has not granted NFLX a license for gaming services.)  Later, a trade group representing AAL, DAL, UAL, and LUV wrote a letter to the FAA asking for even more of an extension (to October 2025) of the waver they’ve gotten to “minimum flight requirements” at NY airports.  The airlines say they are still facing pilot shortages and the air traffic control system is also still facing staff shortages.  (Under the rules, airlines lose their gate assignments and runway slots if they do not average at least 80% usage of the assigned resources. The airlines have already been granted waivers and then had them extended through October 2024.  Now the airlines want another year to get back to normal flight capacities.  At the same time, the Dept. of Justice (and 15 states) antitrust lawsuit against AAPL over its US smartphone app store monopoly was reassigned to a new judge in NJ after the original judge recused himself over a conflict of interest. 

Meanwhile, the NTSB said the Sunday LUV in-flight loss of an engine cowling on a BA 737-800 was due to a maintenance quality problem the night before the incident.  LUV is solely to blame for the aborted flight.  At the same time, the SEC notified private software developer Uniswap of potential action.  (Uniswap was the main developer of the COIN crypto-exchange, although what action the SEC could take against them is uncertain.)  Then, after the close, Politico reported that the Dept. of Justice has formally opened an antitrust probe into the Nippon Steel $14.1 billion acquisition of X.  At the same time, AAPL employees at a company store in NJ filed with the NLRB to get a unionization vote.  Later, the Dept. of Justice files suit in federal court accusing REGN of fraudulent price reporting related to macular regeneration drug Eylea.  The allegations are that REGN inflated the “average sales price” reported to Medicare for reimbursement. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned red in modest trading.  Thailand (-0.84%) was by far the biggest mover and led eight of the 12 exchanges lower.  On the upside, India (+0.49%) led the four gaining exchanges.  In Europe, the bourses are nearly red across the board at midday, with only two of 15 exchanges green.  The DAX (-0.60%), CAC (-0.19%), and FTSE (-0.23%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 a.m., in the US, Futures are pointing to a down open ahead of PPI data.  The DIA implies a -0.28% open, the SPY is implying a -0.29% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly again to 4.554% and Oil (WTI) is off a half of a percent to $85.76 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, March Core PPI, and March PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Williams (8:45 a.m.) and Bostic (1:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to KMX, STZ, and FAST.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Friday March Import Price Index, March Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.

So far this morning, STZ reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, KMX and FAST both reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, two of the “Big 4” global accounting firms, KPMG and Deloitte, were hit with $25 million in civil penalties and had senior managers barred, in response to “egregious and widespread cheating on auditor certification tests.  (This was just the latest in a long string of auditor companies and their employees helped colleagues obtain internal certifications to be public auditors by sharing test answers.)  Meanwhile, the US Senate voted 53-47 to overturn Federal Highway Administration rules that had set declining targets on greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles on federal highways to near zero by 2050.  (The House has yet to vote on the measure, but if the Democratic Senate voted in favor of the industry position, the House should be an easy pass.)  On the House side of capitol hill, the Freedom Caucus (MAGA) vocal minority killed a GOP bill to reauthorize for five years the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization measure.  (FISA authorizes warrantless surveillance of foreign intelligence suspects and this bill also imposes some reforms.)  The killing of a procedural vote on the bill came after the MAGA leader called on his minions to kill the bill as he wanted to lean into “deep state” conspiracy theories on the campaign trail.  For his part, after a fourth defeat of his short tenure, House Speaker Johnson vowed to forge ahead even after 19 GOP members jumped shipped and voted with Democrats. (This was ironic since at is one of the group’s biggest complaints about Johnson is that he is too willing to work with Dems.)

In market expectations news, after the March CPI data was reported and had a day to be digested, the Fedwatch tool shows us that as of this morning, only 96.0% of Fed Fund Futures bets are on “no change in rates” at the next (May 1) FOMC meeting. This is actually down 4% from the pre-CPI probabilities.  The other 4% are expecting a quarter-point rate cute on May 1.  For the June 12 meeting, probabilities are showing 83.1% of contracts expecting no cut (up from the 40.8% predicting no cut prior to the CPI data).  16.4% still expect a quarter-point cut in June while 0.5% expect a half percent cut at that meeting.  The July 31 meeting now shows 55.6% expecting no rate change by then.  (This is up from just 24.4% of traders anticipating no change in rates at the July meeting prior to CPI data.)  38.4% expect a quarter point cut in July, 5.8% expect a half-point cut by then, and 0.2% expect a three-quarters of a percent cut by July31.  Even further out, 67.3% of fed fund futures bets predict at least a quarter point rate cut by September 18 with 32.7% hanging onto the belief rates will remain where they are now.  Interestingly, even out in December 13.2% of bets have been placed on no rate cut during 2024.  However, there has not been a single Fed futures bet of any additional rate hikes this year either. 

With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control again this morning. All three major index ETFs have gapped lower and then printed modest (but certainly not small) black body candles to begin the premarket. All three are also below their T-line (8ema). So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range in the SPY and QQQ, but the DIA has also turned Bearish in the mid-term. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is now in the middle of its oversold range. So, both sides still have some room to run but clearly the Bulls have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with only MSFT (+0.31%) and AAPL (+0.13%) hanging onto the green area ahead of PPI data. Speaking of which, remember that while PPI hits today (and may reinforce the bad feeling from CPI yesterday), it is not likely to have as much impact. In either case, earnings season starts again in earnest tomorrow morning. So, we may still see more waiting and drifting after any open fireworks.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher on Tuesday as the wait on CPI data continued.  SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA opened 0.14% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.55%.  However, at that point traders faded the gap finally recrossing it in all three major index ETFs at 10:30 a.m. and continuing south until they reached the lows of the day at 10:55 a.m.  From there, all three slowly and modestly rallied in an uneven way the rest of the day with a spurt the last 5 minutes of the session.  SPY and QQQ crossed back into their morning gap while DIA closed just below the Monday close.  This action gave us black-bodied, long-handle Hammer candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY and QQQ crossed back up above their T-line (8ema) while DIA remains close below its T-line. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green as Basic Materials (+0.61%) was out in front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Financial Services (-0.34%) was by far the weakest sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 0.37%.  VXX lost 0.73% to close at a very low 13.60 and T2122 rose but remains in its mid-range at 75.60.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 4.358% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.25% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw considerable volatility that mostly came to nothing.  At one point, all three major index ETFs were Evening Star signals, but all of them ended up as Hammers.  The way I read it, is just two groups making unsupported bets ahead of the CPI data.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the DIA, slightly below-average volume in the QQQ, and well below-average volume in the SPY. 

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks after the close, which came in with a larger inventory build than expected at 3.034 million barrels (compared to a +2.415-million-barrel forecast and much bigger than the prior week’s 2.286-million-barrel drawdown).

In FOMC speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reconfirmed his early 2024 expectation that there will only be one rate cut in 2024.  However, he also said he’s willing to changing his mind…either in terms of more than one cut in 2024 or none this year.  Yet, he reiterated that his base case it that there will be one cut in 2024.

After the close, PSMT reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, WDFC missed massively on revenue while beating on earnings.

In stock news, on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that BX is considering providing the financing for a $5.5 billion French cosmetics firm to go private (L’Occitane).  At the same time, JPM told its customers that sources tell it that AVGO recently won deals from GOOGL and META to produce and supply more than $9 billion in AI chips during the second half of 2024.  (Overall, JPM said the deals should account for $12 billion in AI chip sales for AVGO.)  In unrelated but simultaneous news, GOOGL announced the details of its new ARM-based AI chips made by NVDA.  These new chips are available to customers via GOOGL’s cloud computing services.  Shortly afterward, MSFT said it would invest $2.9 billion to expand its cloud AI infrastructure in Japan over the next two years.  Later, BB announced a deal with AMD to “revolutionize” BB’s robotics systems.  At the same time, BA announced it delivered only 29 planes in March (down more than half from the 64 planes in March 2023).  This capped a quarter where Ba delivered 83 jets.  At the same time, EADSY (Airbus) announced Q1 deliveries rose 12% to 142 aircraft.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that a cancer therapy developed by MRNA and MRK showed “positive results” for early-stage head and neck melanoma in a newly announced study. Later, INTC announced details of a new version of its AI chip aimed at taking on NVDA.  (INTC used TSM’s 5nm process to build the new chips and will offer the chips via servers built by SMCI and HPE by the end of Q2.)  At the same time, GM said it will resume operations of its “Robotaxi” unit Cruise with a small fleet of human-driven taxis in Phoenix AZ.  Later, HSBC announced it is selling its Argentina unit and will book a $1 billion loss from the deal.  After the close, NVS announced it will cut 680 jobs in its sales organization globally.  This includes 240 in the US and 440 in the company home base of Switzerland.  (This is separate from previously announced 7,000-8,000 jobs being cut due to restructuring.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday TSLA settled a lawsuit (for an undisclosed amount) with the family of an AAPL engineer who died while using the TSLA Autopilot feature.  At the same time, the EPA announced the finalized rules for the reduction of cancer-causing emissions from chemical plants.  (The rules apply to 200 large chemical plants, mostly located along the gulf coast in Chemical Alley around Louisianna. (The industry-influenced rule will reduce a plant’s emissions of certain cancer-causing chemicals to 23,700 tons per year.  Later, NSC agreed to pay $600 million to settle a class action lawsuit over its responsibility for the derailment and chemical spill at East Palestine OH in February 2023.  (The settlement is still subject to court approval.)  At the same time, a three-judge panel of the District of Columbia US appeals court upheld the EPA’s decision to allow the state of CA to set its own (stricter) tailpipe emissions and electric vehicle requirements. 

Meanwhile, a hacking group claimed Tuesday to have UNH’s stolen data from its eight-terabyte ransomware hack in February.  (The FBI did not comment, but Reuters reported a hacking hub reported a disgruntled hacker provided the data after a botched $22 million payment allowed their partner hackers to disappear with the bitcoin paid.)  At the same time, META reported that Malaysia has increased its requests to restrict short video content.  (51,638 requests in Q1 2024 versus 42,904 requests in all of 2023.)  Later, Reuters reported that the FAA is investigating allegations that BA whistleblowers have been retaliated against after voicing quality concerns on 787 and 777 model jets.  Elsewhere, a US federal court issued a consent decree forcing PHG to restrict the sale and production of sleep apnea machines following an FDA request.  PHG can no longer sell breathing devices in the US until it complies with FDA concern over noise dampening foam degrading to become toxic and cancerous to users. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.85%) was the biggest mover and along with Singapore (+0.67%), and India (+0.49%) paced the gainers.  On the other side, Shenzhen (-1.60%), Shanghai (-0.70%), and Japan (-0.48%) led the losses.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.61%), DAX (+0.85%), and FTSE (+0.69%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day (ahead of CPI).  The DIA implies a +0.17% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.35% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $85.77 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes March Core CPI and March CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), March Federal Budget Balance and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.).  Fed Governor Bowman also speaks at 8:45 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to DAL.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, March Core PPI, March PPI, Fed Balance Sheet as well as Fed members Williams and Bostic speaking.  Finally, on Friday March Import Price Index, March Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, KMX, STZ, and FAST report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.

So far this morning, DAL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. 

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, an industry group of steelmakers (World Steel Assn.) announced that it expects global steel demand to rise 1.7% in 2024 and to increase further in 2025.  This comes after two years of pandemic-induced declines.  India is expected to be the main driver of the increase in 2024 as Chinese demand is projected to continue declining.  The group also expects growth in the US market after a 2023 slowdown the group says was caused by a housing market slowdown.  At the same time, Reuters reported that Nasdaq short-interest rose 1.2% during the second half of March to 12.183 billion shares (up from 13.022 billion short as of March 15). On the NYSE, Reuters reports the short interest only rose 0.3% over the same period, from 16.051 billion shares to 16.103 billion at the end of March.

In market rate expectations news, ahead of the CPI number, the Fedwatch tool shows us that as of this morning. 100.0% of Fed Fund Futures bets are on no change in rates at the next (May 1) FOMC meeting.  The June meeting probabilities are showing 59.2% of contracts expecting a quarter point cut by Mid-June.  However, 40.8% predict no cut on June 12.  Even the July 31 meeting shows 24.4% of traders anticipate no change in rates by then, while 51.8% expect a quarter-point cut before August and 23.9% expect a half percent or more of cuts by that date. 

With that background, it looks as if the market is very slightly bullish but mostly undecided prior to the CPI data release. All three major index ETFs are just on the green side of flat, but are printing small-body, indecisive candles in the premarket. The SPY and QQQ are both above their T-line (8ema) in the early session, while DIA is just below its T-line and moving toward a retest. (DIA is showing us the most bullish of the early session candles with the largest white body…although it still is not a decisive move.) So the short-term trend is bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in top end of its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split so far this morning with the two biggest movers being INTC (+0.81%) and GOOGL (+0.80%). However, by far the biggest market mover is NVDA (-0.56%) and it is pacing the losses of the five down tickers among that group of 10. Finally, remember that while CPI hits today, earnings season starts again in earnest on Friday morning. So, we may still see more waiting and drifting after the CPI knee-jerk.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher on Friday after strong but unsurprising March Jobs data.  SPY gapped up 0.28%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.37%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs rallied steadily until 1 p.m.  Then we saw a modest selloff for 60 minutes.  Finally, we got a two-hour sideways grind into the close in all three.  This action gave us Bullish Harami signals in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. SPY and QQQ both retested their T-lines (8ema) from below and failed to close above, but did close very near that level.  DIA was clearly the weakest again.  This all came in with just below-average volume in the SPY and slightly above-average volume in the QQQ and DIA.  This gave us a bearish week with SPY down 0.89%, QQQ down 0.80%, and DIA again the weakest, down 2.24%.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red as Technology (-1.57%) was out in front leading the market lower. Meanwhile, Utilities (-029%) and Energy (-0.29%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.21%, DIA lost 1.32%, and QQQ lost 1.53%.  VXX spiked up 4.79% to close at a still low 14.00 and T2122 dropped but remains in its mid-range at 30.67.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 4.311% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.40% to $86.64 per barrel (as Ukrainian attacks take more and more Russia oil infrastructure under drone attack).  So, Thursday saw a major reversal and the first big down day since the end of January.  This move was clearly brought on by nothing more than Fed talk.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ with DIA having the largest volume (relative to average) but still only the highest volume in a week. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included March Avg. Hourly Earnings (year-on-year), which came in as expected at +4.1% (compared to a +4.1% forecast but down from February’s +4.3% value).  Interestingly, on a month-on-month basis March Avg. Hourly Earnings also came in as expected at +0.3% (versus the +0.3% forecast but up a tick from February’s +0.2% reading).  At the same time, the March Nonfarm Payrolls were very strong at +303k (compared to the +212k forecast and even more than February’s +270k).  The same was true of March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, which were +232k (versus the +160k forecast and even the February +207k value).  The March Participation Rate ticked up to 62.7% (compared to the 62.6% forecast and up two ticks from the February 62.5%).  Altogether, this meant the March Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.8% (versus the 3.9% forecast and February value).  Later, February Outstanding Consumer Credit also came in better than expected at $14.12 billion (compared to a forecast of $16.20 billion and the well down from the January $17.68 billion reading).  So, jobs creation remains very strong and well above the 12-month average.  However, it is also important to know that the numbers above (+303k) are full-time equivalents that are made up in very large portion by part-time jobs as businesses continue to work hard to avoid needing to pay benefits to reduce costs.  In fact, 691k part-time jobs were created in March, with 5.2% of the total workforce holding multiple jobs.

In FOMC speak, Richmond Fed President Barkin said, “Unemployment is at 3.8%. It’s been 26 months in a row with unemployment below 4% … That’s the first time that’s happened since the late ’60s. So, the job market is very strong.”  Shortly afterward, Dallas Fed President Logan followed the recent theme, saying “I believe it’s much too soon to think about cutting interest rates” … “I’m increasingly concerned about upside risk to the inflation outlook.”  Meanwhile, Fed Governor Bowman said, “While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting, we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”  She then went on to tempered the remark by saying, “We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.”  (However), “it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive.  (For now,) our monetary policy stance is restrictive and appears to be appropriately calibrated to reduce inflationary pressures.”

In stock news, on Friday, META announced major changes to its content labelling rules which will start applying “Made with AI” labels on videos, images, and audio posted on any of its platforms.  In addition, META said it will apply “digitally altered” labels to deceiving content.  At the same time, Reuters reported SHEL is in the final stages of negotiations to purchase of LNG trading firm Pavilion Energy.  (Saudi Aramco is also competing to buy Pavilion.)  Later, VLKAF (Volkswagen) CEO Blume told a German newspaper Friday that he wants to avoid “utopian goals” for the Chinese market, saying his company “cannot keep up” with other EV makers in that country and that anything more than 10% market share would be “very respectable.”  At the same time, Reuters reported three sources confirm that TSLA has canceled its long-promised inexpensive car after strong Chinese EV competition.  (Later, CEO Musk tweeted that “Reuters was lying.”  In other TSLA news, the company announced it will cut prices on its best-selling Model Y (long-range models) by at least $5,000 as it struggles with the largest car inventory it has ever had.

Elsewhere, JNJ agreed to buy SWAV in a $13.1 billion deal.  JNJ offered $335 per share (a 17% premium on the March-end price) as well as debt assumption.  At the same time, there was another twist in the PARA acquisition story.  CNBC reported the Skydance deal is more of a merger (as opposed to the rejected $26 billion APO offer to buy PARA).  In addition, Skydance would either become a majority shareholder or just a significant minority shareholder.  In either case, the deal would require PARA to raise $3 billion in new equity.  (Skydance already has a tentative deal in place to buy 77% of the voting shares of PARA from their current owner.)  After the close, CEO Musk said TSLA will unveil a “robotaxi” on August 8.  On Saturday, Reuters reported that AAPL laid off 600 workers (not at their Cupertino HQ), rumored to have been part of the company’s now canceled car project.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, a new class-action lawsuit was filed against TSLA, alleging the carmaker of many wage law violations against both factory and warehouse workers.  The suit claims TSLA failed to pay overtime, provide breaks, or reimburse employees for work-related expenses.  Later, a US federal appeals court ruled 3-0 to revive a lawsuit against COIN by its customers who allege the exchange illegally sold them unregistered securities and failed to register as a broker-dealer.  At the same time, the FDA gave accelerated approval to an AZN drug to treat a type of solid tumor.  After the close, PG announced it is recalling 8.2 million defective bags of laundry detergent pods (Tide, Gain, Ace, and Ariel brands) due to a packaging defect that may pose a risk to children.  Also after the close, AAPL filed a motion urging a US appeals court to overturn a US trade tribunal’s decision to ban imports of some Apple Watches due to its infringement of a MASI patent.  Elsewhere, AAPL announced they will allow (were beaten by EU law) app store music streaming apps to link to those service’s own websites and inform users of ways other than the Apple App Store to buy digital services.  Later, a MO judge reduced a $1.56 billion verdict against BAYRY (Bayer = Monsanto) to $611 million after the trial that found the chemicals in their weed killer caused cancer in three people.  BAYRY said they would appeal this appeal.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side with the notable exception of China.  Japan (+0.91%), India (+0.68%), and Taiwan (+0.39%) led the eight gaining exchanges higher.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-1.57%) and Shanghai (-0.72%) paced the four losing exchanges.  In Europe, the bourses are almost green across the board at midday with only one of 15 exchanges showing red…and barely red at that.  The CAC (+0.60%), DAX (+0.59%), and FTSE (+0.13%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a dead flat open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have spiked to 4.446% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.79% to $86.20 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (11 a.m.) and Fed member Kashkari speaks at 7 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open Monday and there are none at all scheduled for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, March Core CPI, March CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, March Federal Budget Balance, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, March Core PPI, March PPI, Fed Balance Sheet as well as Fed members Williams and Bostic speaking.  Finally, on Friday March Import Price Index, March Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed member Bostic also speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, PSMT and WDFC report.  Then on Wednesday, we hear from DAL.  On Thursday, KMX, STZ, and FAST report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.

In miscellaneous news, on Saturday, Treasury Sec. Yellen scolded China, saying they are treating America and other foreign countries “unfairly” in terms of trade.  In addition to complaining about Chinese protectionism, Sec. Yellen said that China is producing more of some products than the world economy can absorb (cheap exports).  Yellen also said that the US reserves the right to protect additional sectors (read additional tariffs, import bans, and potentially trade bans).  Yellen went on to recommend that China focus more on stimulating Chinese consumer spending than on subsidizing export product manufacture.  (I’m sure this as constructive criticism and sincere advice with no ulterior motives.)  Brazil, the UK, and Japan concurred with Yellen’s general drift accusing China of dumping exports on the world market at a loss to drive global competitors out of business.

In market expectations news, the Fedwatch tool shows us that as of this morning. 99.0% of Fed Fund Futures bets are on no change in rates at the next (May 1) FOMC meeting.  (The other percent are betting on a quarter-point rate cut at that time.)  The June meeting probabilities are showing 48.2% of contracts expecting no change by Mid-June.  However, 51.2% predict a quarter point cut on June 12 and 0.5% expect a half-point cut by then.  Even the July 31 meeting shows 30.3% of traders anticipate no change in rates by then, while 50.1% expect a quarter-point cut before August and 19.6% expect a half percent or more of cuts by that date.

In late-breaking news, early Monday it was announced that TSM will receive up to $6.6 billion in US grants as well as a potential loan of up to $5 billion as part of the CHIPS act.  The exact amounts are subject to what TSM actually invests in its new AZ chip fab plants.  (TSM has previously announced it would invest $65 billion in the project.  The company also already has contracts in place to supply AAPL and AMD from the facility once the new fabs come on line.)  Elsewhere, sticking to the theme of her trip, Treasury Sec. Yellen met again with Chinese officials Monday.  Yellen continued to push on the “over-capacity” in China’s industrial sector that is flooding global markets with under-priced (subsidized) Chinese exports.  Therefore, Yellen is pushing China to change its policy focus toward stimulating Chinese consumer demand rather than on full employment via infrastructure and industrial investment.  For their part, Chinese officials seem to be continuing to push back saying that deflation and banking system stability are what they see as their top risks.  Finally, SAVE announced Monday it will push off its planned 2025 and 2026 plane deliveries from EADSY (Airbus) and is laying off 260 pilots in an effort to shore up company liquidity.

With that background, it looks as if the market is undecided early Monday. All three major index ETFs are just on the green side of flat, but are near highs of the premarket. The SPY and QQQ are both retesting their T-line (8ema) in the early session, while DIA is not quite to the retest level. Still, all three remain below their T-line (8ema) at this point. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are modestly in the red this morning. However, the two biggest big dogs are green with TSLA (+1.75% in the premarket) pushing. Finally, remember that earnings season starts again later this week and we have CPI on Wednesday. So, the early part of the week may be an indecisive waiting game.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a massive midday reversal. To start the day, SPY gapped 0.79% higher, DIA gapped up 0.69%, and QQQ gapped up a whopping 1.04%. At that point, SPY and QQQ traded sideways (give or take some mid-morning wobble) until early afternoon. At the same time, DIA sold down into the gap for just under a half hour and then also traded sideways in a tight rang until early afternoon.  Midday, Fed talk took the floor out from under us as SPY and DIA started a steep selloff at 1 p.m.  QQQ tried to hold up at its open level for 30 minutes, but then followed the large-cap index ETFs lower in its own steep selloff.  Those selloffs lasted right into the close as all three ended up near their lows of the day.  This action gave us huge black Bearish Engulfing candles in SPY and QQQ as well as a huge, black Doji Engulf in the DIA.  All three started the day above and sold back down through their T-line (8ema).  All three also crossed down their 17ema and the 8ema even crossed down the 17ema in the DIA.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red as Technology (-1.57%) was out in front leading the market lower. Meanwhile, Utilities (-029%) and Energy (-0.29%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.21%, DIA lost 1.32%, and QQQ lost 1.53%.  VXX spiked up 4.79% to close at a still-low 14.00 and T2122 dropped but remains in its mid-range at 30.67.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 4.311% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.40% to $86.64 per barrel (as Ukrainian attacks take more and more Russian oil infrastructure under drone attack).  So, Thursday saw a major reversal and the first big down day since the end of January.  This move was clearly brought on by nothing more than Fed talk.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ with DIA having the largest volume (relative to average) but still only the highest volume in a week. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 221k (compared to a forecast of 213k and the prior week’s 212k).  In the ongoing category, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims fell to 1,791k (versus the prior week’s 1,810k).  At the same time, Feb. Exports were up at $263.00 billion (compared to a January reading of $257.20 billion).  Still, Feb. Imports were up even more at $331.90 billion (versus a January value of $324.80 billion).  This led to an increased Feb Trade Balance of $68.90 billion (compared to a forecast of $66.90 billion and January’s $67.60 billion).

However, the real news of the day was Fed speak, which included Richmond Fed President Barkin who continued the Fed theme of there is no hurry.  Barkin said that inflation data “has been a little less encouraging,” (in early 2024).   He went on to say “No one wants inflation to reemerge. And given a strong labor market, we have time for the clouds to clear before beginning the process of toggling rates down.”  Later, the big news maker was Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (who had forecast 2 rates cuts this year at the March FOMC meeting) when he said “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all.”  Kashkari went on to say cuts were “not off the table, but they are also not a likely scenario given what we know right now. There’s a lot of momentum in the economy right now.” Elsewhere, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said “The biggest danger to the inflation picture in my view… (is) the continued high inflation in housing services.”  He continued, “I have been expecting it to come down more quickly than it has. If it does not come down, we will have a very difficult time getting overall inflation back to the 2% target.” Goolsbee then went on to say, “(Still,) If we stay restrictive for too long, we will likely see the employment side of the mandate begin to deteriorate.”  Finally, Cleveland Fed President Mester seemed to somewhat contradict Kashkari.  Mester said, “we need to see more evidence that confirms that…and once I see that, then I think we’re in a position to move interest rates down.”

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that TSLA had begun making cars in Germany for export to India.  These will be the first sales into India by TSLA and came after meetings with the Modi government and opening TSLA part factories in that country.  At the same time, IP announced it will seek a secondary listing in London as part of its deal to buy British rival DS Smith.  Later, Reuters reported that GOOGL is talking to investment banks about obtaining financing to buy HUBS.  (HUBS currently has a $32 billion market value.)  At the same time, PEP announced it had reached an agreement with major European retailer Carrefour after a three-month pricing dispute.  This will allow PEP products to return to shelves in France and is expected to expand to include Belgium, Italy, Poland, and Spain.  Later, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) and BA are negotiating how to split up SPR in a buyout of the supplier to both.  At the same time, ALK announced that BA paid the airline $160 million compensation for the grounding of the airline’s 737 MAX 9 jets for inspection earlier this year.  The statement said this was “initial compensation” implying there will be more paid.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported CG is “exploring strategic options” (including sale) of its StandardAero unit.  (StandardAero generated $4.6 billion in revenue in 2023.)  Later, DIS announced it will follow the lead of NFLX and will start cracking down on password sharing for its DIS+ service beginning in June.  DIS CEO Iger said it expects to boost the number of subscribers and make DIS+ profitable.  At the same time, F announced it is delaying the launches of two electric vehicles and instead will focus on boosting hybrid vehicle projects.  After the close, JNJ announced it recommends shareholders reject an unsolicited “mini-tender” by TRC Capital, which is seeking to acquire 1 million shares of JNJ for $151.23 per share.  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that GS is getting ahead of Fed rate cuts by lowering the rate paid to consumers (by its Marcus consumer bank). GS lowered the rate by a tenth of a percent from 4.5% to 4.4%, which was the first reduction in three years.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, a US district court judge ruled BAC must face the class action lawsuit alleging the bank reneged on a promise to refund overdraft fees to customers facing financial hardship due to COVID-19.  Later, C, JPM, and RY signed agreements with New York City.  Under the agreement, the banks will disclose a new climate metric based on their financing of low-carbon energy projects versus financing for fossil fuel projects.  At the same time, a five-judge NY state appeals court ruled that PARA investors may sue GS, MS, and other banks that underwrote the PARA stock offerings.  The suit alleges the banks disclosed they “may conduct transactions” that had already been planned, which materially impacted the stock price.  Later, CBOE filed a request with the SEC, seeking regulatory approval to allow ETFs to be added to the mutual fund class.  Analysts say that if approved, the move would likely greatly increase the number and assets within ETFs.  (Previously, Vanguard had a patent on that asset class but the patent expired in May 2023.)  After the close, the FDA disclosed it has sent warning letters to major retailers (and filed civil penalty suits against some) related to the sale of ZYN nicotine pouches (from PM) to underage (younger than 21) customers.

In other news, the National Federation of Independent Businesses announced that its March survey of US small businesses found that hiring plans were the weakest since May 2020.  The survey found that just 11% of surveyed firms plan to create new jobs in the next three months.  (This is down from 12% in February.)  The report concludes that “Job creation plans are now below what would be typical in a strong growth economy.”  However, the report also said “For now, employment activity remains solid, although waning from peak levels.”  Elsewhere, BAC researchers announced findings of their fund analysis saying that “actively managed” funds posted their best quarterly outperformance of indexes since 2007 during Q1.  (64% of active funds outperformed the Russell 1000 large-cap index.  For reference, only 38% of funds outperformed the index in Q1 2023.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the red side with only two of 12 exchanges in the green.  Japan (-1.96%), South Korea (-1.01%), and Taiwan (-0.63%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only one exchange holding onto green (barely).  The CAC (-1.40%), DAX (-1.42%), and FTSE (-0.95%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a bounce back green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.20% open, the SPY is implying a ++0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.33% and oil (WTI) is flat at $86.61 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, and March Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Feb. Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to GBX.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the global securities exchange watchdog group IOSCO proposed detailed guidance on how regulators in the US, Europe, and Asia and supervise stock exchanges.  The group argued that exchanges have increasingly become listed companies and have massively expanded geographically.  However, the exchanges remain essentially self-regulating despite potential conflicts of interest.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice told a US district court that settlement talks had ended in an impasse.  As a result, the court scheduled a trial in January 2026 in the US criminal charges against Chinese tech company Huawei, alleging the company and its CEO misled US banks about the company’s business with Iran (violating sanctions).  This may impact US-China relations further, possibly leading to a retaliatory case filing in China. 

In late-breaking news, Treasury Sec. Yellen is in China for the first of four days of talks with various Chinese officials.  In prepared remarks, she called on China to pursue more market-oriented reforms be open to discussion of over-capacity problems.  She also called on China to collaborate on climate change and share “national security economic actions.”  (Yellen is not scheduled to meet with President Xi, but is meeting today with Vice Premier Lifeng in southern China before traveling to Beijing Saturday for talks with Premier Qieng, Finance Minister Fo’an, and even Beijing city officials.  Finally, business analyst firm Creditsafe reported that certain retailers have recently been noticed to be paying bills late.  While not always an indicator of anything, since many healthy firms always pay their invoices late, it is a possible sign of financial stress.  Among the retailers cited were PTON, EXPR, and BBWI.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are looking to push back against Thursday’s “Kashkari-induced” selloff. All three major index ETFs gapped modestly higher to start the premarnet and are following through with small white-body candles in the early session. Of course, this comes before the March Jobs data. Still, all three remain below their T-line (8ema) to start the early session. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line (although DIA is pushing it) and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL lagging in the red. (Note that this is exactly the same as Thursday morning.) With all that said, it will be March Jobs data that calls the tune at least early today. Finally, remember its Friday…payday. So, pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged at the open Wednesday as SPY started down 0.18%, QQQ gapped down 0.48%, and DIA opened dead flat.  SPY and QQQ immediately recrossed the gap and then traded sideways from 10:30 a.m. to 2:45 p.m.  At that point, the two market- leading index ETFs sold back down and recrossed the gap before rallying the last 30 minutes of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA traded higher until 10 a.m., traded sideways until 2 p.m., sold off until 3:20 p.m., and rallied modestly the last 40 minutes.  This action gave us white-body candles with upper wicks in the SYP and QQQ.  Both retested their T-line (8ema) but closed back below.  However, the DIA gave us a black body Doji candle that never quite retested its own T-line.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green as Basic Materials (+1.14%) was out in front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, far and away the strongest (and only green sector).  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-0.96%) was by far the weakest sector. At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.22%.  VXX lost 0.52% to close at a still low 13.38 and T2122 climbed but remains in its mid-range at 73.76.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.351% and Oil (WTI) rose another 0.59% to $85.65 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was mostly a bullish, but indecisive day that did not change anything overall in the market.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which came in quite strong at 184k (compared to a forecast of 148k and a February reading of 155k).  Later, March S&P Global Services PMI was exactly as predicted at 51.7 (versus the 51.7 forecast but down from February’s 52.3).  At the same time, March S&P Global Composite PMI was a tick low at 52.1 (compared to a 52.2 forecast but down from February’s 52.5 value).  Later, March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment was down at 48.5 (versus the 49.0 forecast but up from the February 48.0 reading).  At the same time, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was lower than predicted at 51.4 (compared to a 52.8 forecast and the previous value of 52.6).  March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index showed prices lower at 53.4 (versus a forecast of 58.4 and a Feb. reading of 58.6).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a bigger inventory build than anticipated +3.210 million barrels (compared to a predicted drawdown of 0.300 million barrels and even slightly larger than the previous week’s +3.165 million barrels).

In Fed speak news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic came out with a hawkish outlook that expects one rate cut in 2024, not coming until Q4.  Bostic said, “We’ve seen inflation kind of become much more bumpy,” … “If the economy evolves as I expect and that’s going to be seeing continued robustness in GDP and employment, and a slow decline in inflation over the course of the year, I think it will be appropriate for us to start moving down at the end of this year, the fourth quarter.”  Later, Fed Chair Powell said, “If the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year.”  Powell said  that recent data had not materially changed the Fed’s outlook, which continues “to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2 percent on a sometimes bumpy path.”  Still, Powell also said that cuts would not start until “we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent.”  Later, Fed Governor Kluger said “I expect the disinflationary trend to continue.” (Saying that would pave the way for rate cuts over the course of the year.)  She continued, “If disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate.”

After the close, LEVI reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, BB reported a massive miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that LEVI raised forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported SPOT will increase prices for the second time in a year.  (The report indicated prices will increase $1 – $2 per month by the end of April.)  In addition, SPOT will offer a new pricing tier on $11/month which will include only music and podcasts (but not audiobooks).  At the same time, Taiwan was hit with the largest earthquake since 1999.   This caused TSM (the world’s largest chip maker) to temporarily close some its plants.  Hours later workers returned to the plants to begin inspections prior to restart of those cleanroom tight fab. TSM management said this could cause a “short-term hiccup” to electronics manufacturers.  Later, F reported a 6.8% rise in US Q1 auto sales.  At the same time, AMZN announced it will cut several hundred “sales, marketing, and tech” jobs in its cloud computing unit.  (The timing is a bit suspect since AMZN announced it will be investing an additional $10 billion per year for each of the next 15 years…$150 billion overall…to expand its cloud computing unit.)  That business unit has 60,000 employees, putting the “few hundred” into perspective.  Later, Reuters reported that EADSY (Airbus) delivered 142 planes in Q1, up 12% from Q1 2023.  Still, this was six planes shy of company goals for Q1.  (EADSY refused comment on the report.)  At the same time, 5,000 pilots at JBLU began negotiations with the company for a new labor contract.  Later, the CEO of ULTA warned that Q1 demand was lackluster for his company and across the industry.   (ULTA fell 15.34% on the comments while peers COTY was down 6.28% and EL fell 4.12%.)  At the same time, HXSCL (SK Hynix), the second largest computer memory chip maker and a major supplier to NVDA, announced it will invest $3.87 billion to build a plant in the state of IN.  This plant would begin full production in H2 2028. 

Elsewhere, DIS management won its battle with shareholders choosing CEO Iger’s slate over the slate proposed by activist Iger opponent Nelson Peltz.  Later, COST announced it will offer members access to weight-loss programs, including access to the hit prescription drugs Ozempic and Wegovy.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is now exploring a move into personal robotics as its “next big thing.”  Later, Reuters reported that sources tell it that BA plane deliveries fell sharply in recent weeks as the FAA has increased quality audits.  After the close, MSFT announced that it (in partnership with Quantinuum) had achieved a breakthrough in quantum computers, making them much more reliable.  (Quantum computes basic unit is a “qubit” which are notoriously error prone.  MSFT said their partnership has developed an error correction algorithm that allow quantum computers to have 800 times fewer errors than any other quantum effort.)  Also after the close, the Financial Times reported that GOOGL is planning to charge for its “AI-powered search engine.”  Meanwhile, XOM made a filing saying that it expects Q1 results to be weaker based on lower oil and gas prices.  At the same time, Reuters reported AAPL has had 6,400 app store users reported outages in addition to service losses for Apple Music and Apple TV+.  Later, Reuters reported PARA has entered into exclusive merger negotiations with Skydance, a private equity firm.  (This comes days after PARA received a $26 billion all-cash offer from APO.)  It is worth noting Bloomberg reported Wednesday that PARA’s controlling shareholder has already reached a tentative agreement to sell her stake to Skydance.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that the Fed has blocked a push by global banking watchdogs to make climate risk a focus of financial rules.  (The ECB is pushing for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to demand lenders make and meet climate commitments in their lending starting January 2026.)  At the same time, the UAW filed allegations with the NLRB, claiming that MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) management have taken “fierce backlash” measures against union organizers at its AL plant.  Later, a federal judge ruled in favor of ABUS and against MRNA in three of four patent disputes.  This will allow a trial over damages to begin in a year (April 2025).  After the close, Reuters reported that the EU will drop its “sovereignty requirement,” which will make it much easier for AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT to bid on EU cloud computing contracts.  This came after a draft of cybersecurity certification scheme scrapped the requirement that vendors should be “independent from non-EU laws” (meaning EU-based).  Elsewhere, unsurprisingly, T, VZ, CMCSA, and other telecom industry members have filed opposition to the FCC plan to reinstate “net neutrality” rules thrown out by the Trump administration.  Later, the FDA approved an antibiotic for staph infections from BPMUF.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed.  South Korea (+1.29%) and Malaysia (+1.06%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-1.22%) and Taiwan (-0.63%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning toward the green side at midday with only five of 15 exchanges in the red.  The CAC (+0.06%), DAX (+0.10%), and FTSE (+0.41%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are up slightly to 3.363% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $85.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday, includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, the CEO of STLA told an auto industry group that the industry needs to halve the weight of batteries in an electric vehicle over the next decade.  (The average electric vehicle now has 1,000 pounds of battery in it.)  He said he thinks that is achievable with many improvements already in the works.  Still, he said the industry still needs a breakthrough in terms of energy density.  He also commented on hydrogen vehicles, saying that “for the time being” affordability is a showstopper for all except large corporate fleets.  Elsewhere, European authorities released a report saying (the obvious to me) that social media stock tips may influence stock prices in the short term, but have no impact in the long run.  The report went on to say it is important to hold financial media to accuracy standards in news and data reported…but this is not the case for social media since the impacts are “only short term.”  (It is worth noting the meme stock craze drove GME up 1,600 percent at one point.) 

So far this morning, CAG and RPM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (RDUS and LW report closer to the open).

With that background, it looks as if markets are looking to gap higher to start the day (ahead of data still). The SPY an QQQ both gapped up across their T-line (8ema) to start the early session. Meanwhile, DIA gapped up close to its own T-line. From there, all three major index ETFs have given us tiny, white-body, indecisive candles so far in the premarket. So the short-term trend is very modestly bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a consolidating range. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides still have plenty of room to run if they can find momentum. It may also be worth noting that all three major index ETFs are at or near a potential area of support. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL lagging in the red. So, expect a bullish start to the day unless Jobless Claims are a major surprise causing a turn-around.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets gapped lower to start the day.  SPY gapped down 0.76%, DIA gapped down 0.84%, and QQQ gapped down 1.12%.  However, from that point, all three major index ETFs ground sideways along the opening levels.  With a modest rally the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-down Hammer candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed white-body Hammers, while the DIA printed a black-body hammer.  All three gapped down through their T-line (8ema) and never came close to retesting it.  This all happened on roughly average volume (with SPY the weakest of the three in that sense).

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were red as Energy (+1.28%) was far and away the strongest (and only green sector).  Meanwhile, Healthcare (-1.60%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.45%) were by far the weakest sectors and led the way lower.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.63%, DIA lost 0.94%, and QQQ lost 0.86%.  VXX gained 2.51% to close at a still low 13.47 and T2122 pulled back to the center of its mid-range at 51.13.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.353% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.96% to $85.34 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a gap-down day where essentially all of the move happened at the open.  The rest of the day was just treading water as markets start off Q2 similarly to the way they started off Q1…full of fear and uncertainty.  Still, we know how Q1 ended up (the strongest quarter in 5 years).  So, the bulls have not given up hope or anything of that sort.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included February Factory Orders, which came in stronger than expected at +1.4% (compared to a forecast of +1.1% and especially compared to the -3.8% in January).  At the same time, February JOLTs Job Openings were slightly lower than predicted at 8.756 million (versus a forecast of 8.760 million but still up from January’s 8.748 million reading).  After the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.286 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -2.000 million barrels and far down from the prior week’s 9.337-million-barrel inventory build). So, overall, the economy still shows as strong with better-than-expected factory orders and a large number of job openings.

In Fed speak news, Cleveland Fed President Mester said she continued to expect rate cuts this year.  However, Mester indicated that the bigger risk (to the FOMC) is still in cutting rates too soon rather than too late.  She said, “with labor markets and economic growth both being very solid, we do not need to take that risk.”  Mester continued, “If the labor market deteriorates, we can move rates down sooner and more quickly than in our baseline. Rather than view this as a normalization, the intention would be to return to an accommodative stance of monetary policy to support the economy.”  Later, San Francisco Fed President Daly said she still expects three rate cuts in 2024.  Still, she said, there isn’t enough convincing data yet to warrant starting the cuts. Daly said, “three reductions this year is a very reasonable baseline.”  However, she quickly added, “Three rate cuts is a projection, and a projection is not a promise.” … “We’re getting there, but it’s not going to be tomorrow, but it’s (also) not going to be forever.”

After the close, CALM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. However, PLAY missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, TSLA revealed its Q1 vehicle deliveries fell 8.5% from Q1 of 2023.  However, this was also down 20% quarter-on-quarter from Q4 2023.  (This was TSLA’s first year-on-year decline since Q2 2020.)  Later, SLB announced it will acquire competitor CHX for $7.75 billion.  (CHX shareholders will get $40.59 per share, which is a 14.6% premium on the Monday closing price.)  At the same time, UBS announced a new $2 billion share buyback program (up to half completed by the end of Q2).  Later, TM reported a huge 20% increase in Q1 auto sales in the US.  (TM sold 565,098 in Q1 2024 compared to 469,558 in Q1 of 2023.)  In contrast, GM reported that Q1 sales fell 1.5% versus Q1 of 2023 (594,233 in Q1 2024 versus 603,208 in Q1 2023).  At the same time, BABA announced it had bought back $4.8 billion of its stock in Q1 as part of its planned $25 billion buyback through Q1 2027.  Later, Bloomberg reported that HON is considering selling its COVID protective gear business unit in a deal reportedly more than $2 billion.  Elsewhere, APO (owner of Yahoo) announced Yahoo had acquired the AI-driven news platform Artifact for an undisclosed sum.  At the same time, GE announced it has completed its three-way breakup (into GE, GEV, and GEHC).  Later, the USW union representing employees of X announced it would not support the takeover agreement of Nippon Steel for roughly $14.1 billion.  The union said Nippon Steels job protection pledges were “meaningless” because of the open-ended wording that would allow the company to skirt promises to both workers and retirees.  After the close, the largest investor of DIS (Vanguard) announced it had cast its votes in support of management’s (CEO Iger’s) slate of directors in Iger’s fight with activist investor Peltz.  Also after the close, the Washington Post reported that the US Cyber Safety Review Board is expected to release its report into lapses by MSFT that allowed hackers to hack State Dept. and Dept. of Commerce email addresses last year via MSFT’s Exchange mail servers.  Meanwhile, INTC disclosed an increasing and now $7 billion operating loss from its chip-making unit for 2023.  (This is up from $5.2 billion loss from the same unit in 2022.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, it was announced that recreational pot will be on the November ballot in the state of FL.  (This led to a spike in pot stocks like TLRY, ACB, and CGC.)  Later, the FDA announced that it has approved an ABT heart valve repair device.  This comes months after the FDA approved a rival product from EW.  At the same time, DUK filed a rate increase request with the Florida Public Service Commission, looking to pass $820 million in costs onto 1.97 million FL residents it serves.  Later, the FDA said some dosages of LLY’s Mounjaro diabetes drug will be in short supply the rest of 2024 due to soaring demand.  (This is one of the drugs approved for weight loss under a different brand name.)  At the same time, the Biden Administration announced it had responded to offers from the makers of the 10 highest priced drugs covered by Medicare.  These include BMY, MRK, JNJ, ABBV, AMGN, LLY, NVO, and AZN.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the US Dept. of Justice will meet with the families of victims of the two BA 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019. The DOJ is evaluating whether BA violated the terms of its January 2021 agreement to avoid criminal prosecution then. Later, several anti-smoking groups sued the FDA, demanding the agency ban menthol-flavored cigarettes.  This comes after an August final decision was pushed back to March and again missed amidst lobbying by MO and BTI (both of which get more than 20% of their revenue from menthol brands).  At the same time, the FDIC announced it is considering a plan to push BLK, STT, and Vanguard back into passive roles in the banking system.  At the moment all three own more than 10% of many FDIC-regulated banks, including JPM, BAC, WFC, and C. Later, MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) workers in AL filed for a unionization vote with the NRLB.  (The vote could happen within days.)  After the close, C filed motions with a federal judge urging the dismissal of a suit brought by the Attorney General of NY, alleging the company failed to reimburse fraud victims and coercing them into giving up legal remedies before summarily dismissing their claims.  C urged the dismissal based on a Uniform Commercial Code standard that excuses banks from doing so if it had taken “commercially reasonable” security measures to verify customer identities.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  South Korea (-1.68%), Australia (-1.34%), and Hong Kong (-1.22%) led the region lower.  India (-0.08%) and Shanghai (-0.18%) held up much better than other exchanges.  In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only three of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.23%), DAX (+0.27%), and FTSE (-0.37%) lead the region on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.07% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.365% and Oil (WTI) is up another seven-tenths of a percent to $85.75 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m., March S&P Global Services PMI and March S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 p.m.), March ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and March ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Bowman (9:45 a.m.), Fed Chair Powell (12:10 p.m.), and Fed Vice Chair Barr (1:10 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AYI.  Then, after the close, BB and LEVI report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Feb. Exports, Feb. Imports, Feb Trade Balance, and Fed member Mester speaks.  Finally, on Friday, March Avg. Hourly Earnings, March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Private Nonfarm Payrolls, March Participation Rate, March Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Consumer Credit are being reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, CAG, LW, RDUS, and RPM report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from GBX.

In EV adoption news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that electric vehicles are on track to outnumber petrol vehicles by the end of this year or early 2025 at the latest in Norway.  (Nine out of every 10 cars sold in Norway during Q1 was electric.)  This is an extremely interesting nugget for two reasons.  First, obviously Norway is located far to the North in a cold climate…and batteries do not perform as well in cold temperatures.  Secondly, Norway has huge oil reserves relative to the population. Logically, you might think this should mean gasoline and diesel are cheaper there. You’d be wrong. Norway has among the highest fuel taxes in the world, Norway has small refining capacity, and the Norwegian Krone is a very weak currency (making the oil commodity relatively expensive).

In commodity news, the White House said Tuesday that it is open to ending the current temporary pause in LNG exports if that would help get Ukraine aid passed.  (There is a current pause on approval of NEW LNG export projects while climate impacts are studied.)  This White House proposal comes after House Speaker Johnson (from LA, a major LNG exporting state) told FOX Sunday that reversing the “Biden pause” could make it easier for his party to support a Ukraine aid package.

In mortgage news, the national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming mortgage fell slightly to 6.91% from the prior week’s 6.93% rate.  Loan origination points also fell slightly from 0.60% to 0.59%.  As a result, applications for loans to refinance a home fell 2% week-on-week and were 5% lower than the same week in 2023.  However, applications for new home purchase loans slipped only 0.1% from the prior week, but were 13% lower than the same week in 2023. 

With that background, it looks as if markets are modestly bearish in the early session. All three major index ETFs gapped a bit lower to start the premarket. However, they’re all also putting in small, white-bodied, indecisive candles up to this point this morning. The SPY, QQQ, and DIA are all below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bullish with the notable caveat that QQQ is consolidating in a choppy sideways action. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is smack in the center of its mid-range. So, both sides have plenty of room to run if they can find traction. It may also be worth noting that all three major index ETFs are at or near a potential area of support. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red. However, only INTC is getting hammered hard (on last evening’s reveal of a $7 billion loss from their chip foundry unit). Unfortunately, the dog swinging the biggest sticks (NVDA and TSLA) are in that group of eight. So, expect a down start unless morning news causes a major turn-around.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service