US markets rebounded Tuesday on the hope brought by 3 EU Prime Ministers visiting Kyiv and PPI coming in lighter than expected.  Stocks gapped higher and then put in morning and afternoon rallies separated by a 2-hour period of consolidation.  As a result, all 3 major indices printed large white candles that closed near their highs.  On the day, SPY gained 2.20%, DIA gained 1.85%, and QQQ gained 3.14%.  This move put the large-cap indices back above their T-lines.  VXX had a crazy day and was halted numerous times before closing little changed at 28.70.  However, T2122 shot back up into the mid-range at 47.01.  10-year bond yields remained little-changed at 2.146%, but Oil plummeted again on improved prospects for peace, down 7.64% to $95.14/barrel after having been at $93.56 at mid-day.  That is a drop of over 30% from the high reached on March 8th.

On the Russia story, as mentioned above 3 Prime Ministers from EU countries are now in Kyiv to hold talks with Ukrainian President Zelensky.  Zelensky will also speak to the US Congress via zoom today.  President Biden will make his own address after signing that $13.6 billion aid package for Ukraine.  In Europe, the EU and Britain added more individuals from Russia and Belarus to the list of sanctioned people.  For their part, Russia “sanctioned” a number of American politicians from the President to members of Congress…to the extent their sanctions are of any interest.  Russia also has $117 million in bond payments due today. However, there is some optimism coming from Ukrainian President Zelensky saying talks with Russia are becoming more realistic.

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During the day, Sarah Raskin withdrew her candidacy for the office of Fed Vice Chair after WV Senator Manchin effectively killed the nomination Sunday at the behest of the Oil and Gas industry.  President Biden called for an immediate up/down vote on his 4 remaining Fed nominees (sitting Chair Powell, sitting member Brainard, Lisa Cook, and Philip Jefferson).  No word yet on who the President will nominate as a replacement for Raskin to be Vice-Chair (and the top Bank Regulator).

Mortgage demand fell this week as interest rates surged again.  After a brief reprieve, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages spiked higher from 4.09% the week prior to 4.27% this week (for loans with 20% down payments).  Refinancing loan applications fell 3% for the week (and were 49% lower than one year ago).  New home purchase loans rose 1% on the week and were 8% lower than the same week in 2021.

Overnight, the Asian markets were green across the board.  The biggest moves came in China where their government said negotiation with US regulators over cooperating on US-Listed Chinese stocks was progressing.  Hong Kong (+9.08%) was a massive outlier, but Shenzhen (+4.02%) and Shanghai (+3.48%) were no slouches as Chinese stocks soared.  Europe is following Asia with stocks showing green across the board at mid-day.  This came on renewed hope from the 3 EU Prime Ministers’ visit and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy saying that talks with Russia are sounding more realistic.  The FTSE (+1.17%) lags, but the DAX (+3.22%) and CAC (+3.54%) are leading the way higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher on the same optimism.  The DIA implies a +1.02% open, the SPY is implying a +1.15% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.68% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are rising again to 2.174% and Oil (WTI) is up fractionally to $95.90/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes Feb. Import/Exports and Feb. Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), Jan. Retail Inventories (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Interest Rate Decision, FOMC statement, Fed Interest Rate Projections (dots) (all at 2 pm), and Chair Powell’s Press Conf. (2:30 pm).  Ukrainian President Zelensky will also speak to Congress at 9 am and President Biden will speak about 1 pm after signing the Ukrainian aid bill.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open include ARCO, JBL, and LE.  Then after the close EDR, GES, LEN, WSM, and ZTO report.

Markets are looking to gap higher on optimism out of Asia and Ukraine. However, this is a big news day with the Fed holding center stage. So, the entire mood of the market may change mid-afternoon, depending on the rate decision, interest rate outlook (dots), and especially the statement and press conference. Be careful chasing any optimism based out of Ukraine, because we all know we are only one artillery barrage or missile strike from being back to pessimism. Also, remember that we have seen light volumes the last week and that moves on small volume may just be retail-led head fakes. So, continue to trade carefully. Also, be aware that the Chinese Covid lockdowns are spreading along with new cases. So, supply chain issues could get worse.

Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HTZ, X, CLF, CRWD, XME, RS, AMED, CHGG, FSM, EVGO, LDOS, DLTR, BTG, CF, PAAS, NYMT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, markets gapped slightly higher and then followed through the first hour of the day. However, at that point, we saw a strong selloff that lasted until about 2 pm when the lows were reached and markets ground sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  This left us with black candles with larger upper wicks than lower wicks.  The SPY also became the last of the 3 major indices to print a death cross (50sma crossing below 200sma). On the day, SPY lost 0.74%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ lost 1.92%. The VXX gained almost 10% to 28.92 and T2122 fell into the oversold territory at 13.27.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 2.142% and Oil (WTI) rallied after falling below $100 to close at $102.97 (-6.73%).

On the Russia story, the US and China held 7+ hours of intense talks Monday where the US was trying to “warn off” China from helping Russia to circumvent the Western sanctions.  An anonymous source told reporters after the talks that if China does materially support Russia, there will be consequences (sanctions) for China as well.  Then, overnight the Chinese Foreign Minister told his Spanish counterpart that “China is not a party to the conflict and wants to avoid US sanctions over the situation.” The EU also agreed to the 4^th set of sanctions on Russia, including matching the US by revoking the Russian “most favored nation” trade status.  In a surprise (and another hopeful) move overnight, 3 EU leaders (the Prime Ministers of Poland, Slovenia, and the Czech Republic) will travel to Kyiv, even as the Ukrainian capital is entering a 35-hour curfew amidst new Russian missile attacks.

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Among stocks, TSLA (-3.64%) took a big hit Monday after news broke that the company had been buying aluminum from Russia for the last two years.  Then overnight, TLSA hiked the price of all vehicles produced in the US.  The same holds true of Model 3 and Model Y cars made in China.  (The latter is notable because it was the company’s second price hike in the last week in that country.)

In other stock news, during the day yesterday, AAPL fell 2.66%, perhaps partially on the new lockdown in Shenzhen China (some AAPL components are produced in that major tech production city).  Then, after the close, MTN and CANO reported misses on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Even as the Fed meeting starts, President Biden’s set of 3 new Fed nominees has run into trouble.  Former Fed Governor and Deputy Treasury Sec. Raskin has been black-balled as a Vice-Chair nominee by WV Senator Manchin.  In his announcement, Manchin cited her previous “all-of-the-above energy policy” statements, which is code for her “support of green energy” and shows him voting the way that his coal, oil, and gas industry financial supporters prefer to send a political message.  Senator Manchin’s opposition to her likely kills her nomination.  This is a quite striking political move since there was no pretense he felt she was unqualified to be a Fed Member again and would have nothing to do anything related to national Energy policy. 

Overnight, the Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside, particularly in China.  Hong Kong (-5.72%), Shanghai (-4.95%), and Shenzhen (-4.36%) led the region lower.  In Europe, with the lone exception of Denmark (which is just on the green side of flat, the entire continent is in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.79%), DAX (-0.99%), and CAC (-1.01%) are leading stocks lower in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest green opening ahead of economic news. The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.58% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly to 2.131% and Oil (WTI) is plummeting downward (-8.13%) to $94.58/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to Feb. PPI and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open Monday is limited to DOLE.  Then after the close CAL, KODK, GOCO, and YY report. 

Intraday reversals and volatility continue to be the rule in markets. A sharp drop in oil prices overnight is just another example. (While unknown for sure, it could be that China signaling they won’t do anything to help Russia that would get them into sanctions could be cause for relief in Oil markets.) However, US markets may settle down Tuesday as traders wait for the actual Fed announcements before placing too many more bets. In any event, we’ve seen a lot of chop on decreased volumes lately as the trend remains bearish. So, continue to trade carefully. Also, be aware that the Chinese Covid lockdowns are spreading. Another major city (Dongguan) was placed in lockdown overnight. This came as the Chinese report a new spike in cases in 28 provinces. So, supply chain issues could get worse.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLS, HES, BK, GT, DXC, FAST, BAC, LOW, DIS, WFC, XRT, HPE, CMCSA, ORCL, BNTX, MRNA, DGX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped up on Friday but immediately began a volatile selloff that more than faded that gap.  This left us with large Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY, QQQ, and IWM as well as a Bearish Dark Cloud Cover in the DIA.  All 4 of these indices gapped up through and then failed the test of their T-lines (8ema) during the day.  Again, all this happened on less than average volume.  On the day, SPY lost 1.25%, DIA lost 0.58%, QQQ lost 2.07%, and IWM lost 1.60%.  The VXX rose 2% to 26.34 and T2122 fell to 25.85 (at the lower end of the mid-range).  10-year bond yields were essentially flat at 1.995% and Oil (WTI) rose another 3.15% to $109.36.

On the Russia story, on Friday President Biden revoked Russia’s “Most Favored Nation” trade status.  This opens the door to more trade restrictions such as tariffs and import bans.  In the EU, the Parliament voted to phase out various “investment for citizenship” programs (especially in Cyprus, Malta, and Bulgaria) that allow Russian oligarchs to hide/move assets through dual-citizenships.  On Saturday, the Russian Central Bank extended the halt on stock trading through Friday 3/18.  On Sunday it was reported by Bloomberg that Russia has bombed within 11 miles of NATO member Poland, has asked China for military aid, and has killed an American journalist.  However, over the weekend, both Putin and Ukrainian PM Zelensky mentioned that there has been at least some progress in cease-fire talks. DB added its name to the list of banks leaving Russia in a U-turn from their announcement Thursday. (DB is also one of the major lenders to Russia.)

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Despite the situation in the US, on Sunday, China placed the entire city of Shenzhen on lockdown after 66 cases of Omicron were reported.  This city is China’s technology center, home to manufacturing and headquarters for most is the country’s technology companies. The city of Shanghai also restricted all, but essential travel. Both lockdowns are likely to further exasperate global supply chain problems. Both cities are also home to the two major mainland China stock exchanges (as reflected in the fear shown in those exchanges below).

The economic news for this week includes no news on Monday.  Tuesday, we get the Feb Core PPI and NY Empire State Mfg. Index.  Wednesday will be the big news day, with Feb. Import/Exports, Jan. Retail Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Rate decision, announcements and Interest Rate Projections (dots).  Thursday will bring Feb. Housing Starts, Feb. Industrial Production, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index.  Friday rounds out the week with Feb. Existing Home Sales and Fed speakers.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Hong Kong (-4.97%), Shenzhen (-3.08%), and Shanghai (-2.60%) led the region lower as covid cases in China have picked up significantly.  However, it was not all red as India (+1.45%), Australia (+1.21%), and Japan (+0.58%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are varied, but mostly green at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.28%), DAX (+2.89%), and CAC (+1.49%) are typical of the spread across the continent with a couple exchanges in the red and Russia still closed.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the opening bell.  The DIA implies a +1.04% open, the SPY is implying a +0.84% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.53% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 2.066% and Oil (WTI) is plummeting 5.7% to $103.09/barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open Monday is limited to GOL.  Then after the close MTN reports.    

Volatility still reigns as we are seeing another gap take shape for the open today. This move comes on without any particularly good news, other than the rumor of progress in peace talks, but also in the face of more Covid problems in China. So, remember that the pattern lately has been either to fade the gap or at least have a wild roller-coaster ride after the gap. Also, keep in mind that with the Fed news coming Wednesday, we may see a “wait and see” mood take over the market, especially after the morning gap settles. We’ve seen a lot of chop on decreased volumes lately and the trend remains bearish. So, trade carefully.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APPH, HTZ, NET, XRT, CAR, WMT, SBUX, ON, CRSP, CHPT, URA, SQQQ, CLOV. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped down about 1.2% on a +7.9% Annual CPI numbers Thursday and then put in a roller-coaster morning that found the lows of the day about noon.  However, from there stocks rallied slow and steady the rest of the day.  This left us with white body candles with significant wicks (Doji type in the QQQ) but had recovered most of the gap down in the large-cap indices by day end.  It is worth noting that volume was extremely low in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.47%, DIA lost 0.37%, and QQQ lost 1.11%.  The VXX fell over 4% to 25.83 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 51.38.  10-year bond yields shot up to 1.992% and Oil (WTI) fell another 2.16% to $106.25/barrel.

After the close, DOCU, NTCO, and ULTA reported beats on both lines.  However, both ORCL and ZUMZ missed on earnings while reporting in line on revenue.  ORCL said that losses on investments into a gene-sequencing company and ARM server chip manufacturer (neither listed) were the cause of the earnings miss.  After hours, electric vehicle maker RIVN also missed on earnings and announced they expect to produce only 25,000 vehicles this year, far below Wall Street expectations.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russia story, they started to retaliate against Western sanctions on Thursday.  Russia Prime Minister Mishustin said that legislation has already been drafted to seize the assets of Western companies that have suspended operations in their country.  This would include over 240 western companies such as MCD, AAPL, BP, SHEL, XOM, GS, JPM, KO, MSFT, MSFT, IBM, TM, etc.  They also banned the export of a wide range of products including telecom, medical, automotive, electrical, and agricultural products through the end of 2022. This export ban is mainly a PR stunt since importers of such equipment have largely already ended those sales.  On the “companies exiting Russia” front, both GS and JPM joined the list by announcing they’re in the process of winding down Russian operations.  Beyond all this, Western banks such as C, CS, DB, and GS are owed more than $121 billion by Russia. Those banks told Bloomberg they are now expecting at least significant losses (if they are paid in Rubles that cannot be moved out of Russia, as the Ruble devalues) and possibly total losses on those loans. On the ground in Ukraine, Russia has expanded its offensive to the West and is now attacking cities within 70 miles of the Polish border.

The ECB made a surprise announcement that it will end its bond-buying program.  However, this will not take effect until Q3 and only if economic data continues to support that faster than planned move.  It is worth noting that ECB President Lagarde said the war in Ukraine “is having a material impact on economic activity and inflation” and therefore circumstances may change.  Still, ending buying in Q3 is the latest plan.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Japan (-2.05%), Hong Kong (-1.61%), and Taiwan (-0.97%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are strongly in the green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.69%), DAX (+3.21%), and CAC (+2.46%) are representative of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing toward a strongly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +1.25% open, the SPY is implying a +1.39% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.56% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have breached the 2% level and Oil (WTI) is up modestly to $1.06.65/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for release Friday.    

Once again, volatility reigns as we are seeing another gap in the opposite direction today. This move comes on without any particularly good news and therefore must be seen to be whiplash (reaction to over-reaction). Just remember that the pattern lately has been either to fade the gap or at least have a wild roller-coaster ride after the gap. Also, remember that this is Friday and there is a weekend news cycle to live through before we can adjust any trades. So, prepare yourself for that situation by getting flat, small, or hedged. Who knows what the news out of Ukraine could be this weekend? New scanctions? Escalation? Progress from talks now that Russia is in a better position? It could go any direction.

I know it is a very hard thing to do…the right thing often is. However, if a volatile, choppy market is not your wheelhouse and you aren’t able to become that fast daytrader, sitting on your hands is the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: QS, ITUB, AVGO, M, CRSP, CRWD, CAR, PFE, COST, WMT, DRE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a massive gap higher (2% to 2.5%) Wednesday after commodity prices began to fall the previous night.  However, the rest of the day was a roller-coaster ride with a slightly bullish trend.  This resulted in the best day since the recovery from the Covid Crash (June 2020).  We were left with a Spinning Top in the SPY, a Doji in the DIA, and a white candle with larger wicks on both ends in the QQQ.  All 3 of the indices did test, but none of them was able to break through, their T-line by day end.  On the day, SPY gained 2.66%, DIA gained 2.10%, and QQQ gained 3.60%.  The VXX fell 4% to 27.03 and T2122 rose to just outside the overbought territory at 79.41.  10-year bond yields spiked to 1.943% and Oil (WTI) took a tremendous beating (down 13% at one point before rallying), closing down 10.54% to $110.66/barrel.  Wheat also fell more than 6.5% on the day.

After the close, AMZN announced a 20-for-1 stock split for owners of record on May 27 (effective June 3, 2022).  In addition, the company announced a $10 billion stock buyback program, which replaces the current $5 billion buyback program.  The stock spiked over 13.5% on the news during post-market trading. Also after the close, LU, FNV, KRO, and CRWD all reported beats on both lines.  However, BEKE missed on earnings while beating on revenue.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Overnight, the House passed a bipartisan $1.5 trillion omnibus spending bill (including $13.6 billion for Ukraine) Wednesday evening.  Covid-19 Relief spending was stripped out to avoid contention and make it easier to get to 60 votes in the Senate.  The Senate will take up the bill today and it needs to be passed by Friday to avoid a government shutdown.

Related to Oil prices, US Energy Sec. Granholm called on US oil and gas companies to increase production.  However, many oil industry officials at the conference expressed reluctance to add even more capacity.  The executives noted that the White House had also asked OPEC to increase output. (On that front, the UAE openly called Wednesday for OPEC to increase production to replace any Russian oil that is banned by the West.)  So, US companies fear the cost and long-term nature of adding US capacity when it is possible that supply may have overcome the current deficit by the time that output was online (i.e. prices may have come back down).  There was also an unstated concern about US government policies intended to promote competing “green” alternatives to oil and gas. Those concerns aside, US producers have already increased US output by a million barrels per day this year. 

On the Russian invasion story, CAT and DE joined the chorus of companies that have suspended sales and business operations to Russia.  MCD clarified that their closure of 850 restaurants in Russia will cost them $50 million per month. Meanwhile, Russia has escalated the bombardment of surrounded cities.  In Mariupol, they bombed a children’s hospital as well as the civilian evacuation corridor, killing several people.  Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also claimed they have found an alternative buyer for oil and gas that is now being sold to Europe.

Overnight, the Asian markets were strongly green across the board.  Japan (+3.94%), Taiwan (+2.46%), and Shenzhen (+2.18%) led the way higher.  However, in Europe, stocks are mostly red (with the exceptions of Norway (+0.14%) and Finland (+0.22%)) at mid-day.  The FTSE (-1.30%), DAX (-3.10%), and CAC (-2.43%) are leading the way lower in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower at the bell.  The DIA implies a -0.89% open, the SPY is implying a -0.89% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.31% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 1.953% and Oil (WTI) has spiked another 4.35% to $113.40/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to February CPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and Feb. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open are limited to BZUN, CLVT, GCO, and JD.  Then after the close DOCU, ORCL, and ULTA report.   

Volatility remains king as it appears we will see a significant gap down at the open. However, there is CPI data before the open and that may change things. The question is whether hot CPI data will lead to more fear when a rate hike next week is already assumed to be a certainty. Regardless of how we open, be wary of intraday swings and be very cautious. So, if you are trading, trade small, be nimble, and be prepared to accept volatility-caused pain.

Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OPCH, OXY, WU, OLED, PENN, RKT, KO, ENPH, BCC, UPST, HPQ, BLNK, PLUG, NET, RUN, FSLR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The volatility train kept rolling Tuesday with premarkets falling back to nominally flat opens that were followed by an all-day roller-coaster.  We closed on a downswing.  This gave us huge, high-wick, inverted hammer (I don’t believe those are bullish) type candles in the SPY and DIA.  Meanwhile, the QQQ printed a black, long-legged Doji.  All 3 major indices are close to challenging the breakout of their “dreaded-h” patterns.  On the day, SPY lost 0.74%, DIA lost 0.58%, and QQQ lost 0.46%.  The VXX was down 1% to 28.15 and T2122 remains in the low end of the midrange at 29.12.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.852% and Oil (WTI) spiked almost 4.5% to $124.75/barrel.

The Russian invasion and sanctions continue to be the story driving markets.  MCD stock took a big hit (almost 5%) Monday as it was noted over the weekend that MCD has a larger footprint in Russia than other fast-food chains.  After the close, Russia threatened to stop gas flows to Europe and said the world will see $300 Oil if the WOn the Russian invasion and sanctions front, MCD and SBUX both announced they are closing all Russian locations (MCD has 850) until further notice.  KO followed suit by also suspending business in Russia.  PEP announced they have suspended soda sales, but will continue to sell snacks and other products to Russia.  President Biden also announced a ban on the import of Russian Oil/Gas and the UK announced they will be completely out of Russian oil by the end of this year.  Then overnight, commodity prices fell as traders at least temporarily came to the conclusion the initial reaction (such as a 350% spike in Nickel prices) was an over-reaction.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

AAPL had a blasé product announcement event Tuesday.  The company unexpectedly raised the price of their replacement entry-level iPhone SE by 7.5% (to $429 from $399), showing that they are not concerned about gaining market share in the mid-range phone market (the one phone segment AAPL lags far behind).  Other announcements were as expected, with new iPhone colors, a new iPad, a faster Mac, and a 27” display, all of which are priced at the extreme end of those product categories relative to competitors.

Overnight, President Biden issued an executive order on cryptocurrencies.  The order basically sets up a framework for regulating cryptocurrencies to protect consumers, businesses, and investors while mitigating systemic risk.  He also directed the government to explore the technology and capacity needs for a potential Central Bank Digital Currency (such as China now has).  While critics immediately said they fear the move will make the US fall behind other countries due to the regulation, others such as exchange managers say it is a constructive approach.  In either case, Bitcoin spiked 8% on the news as markets love the removal of uncertainty.

After the close, CASY, ABM, and SFIX all beat on both lines.  However, SFIX shares plummeted after the company announced that it is slashing forecasts for the full year.  So far this morning, ZIM, THO, KFY, and REVG have all reported beats on both lines.  However, ADDYY, CPB, and DSEY all reported beats on earnings while missing on revenue.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly green.  Shanghai (-1.13%), Shenzhen (-1.12%), and South Korea (-1.09%) paced the losers with India (+2.07%), Thailand (+1.52%), and Singapore (+1.48%) leading the more plentiful gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mostly (and strongly) green at mid-day.  The FTSE (+1.35%) lags with the DAX (+4.50%) and CAC (+4.53%) leading most of the rest in a bull charge.  Only Norway and Denmark see any red and they are only fractionally down.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a strong gap higher.  The DIA implies a +1.44% open, the SPY is implying a +1.58% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.98% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 1.91% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.26% to $120.87 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to January JOLTS (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and the WASDE report (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open are limited to ADDYY, CPB, PLCE, DSEY, KFY, REVG, THO, UNFI, and ZIM.  Then after the close SID, BEKE, LU, and NTCO report.  

Once again, volatility is king as it appears we will see a significant gap at the open. However, Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities is picking up pace as it now appears the Russian strategy is to reduce the major cities to rubble before entering. The question is whether the bulls can sustain the early momentum after the open given the various threats to European gas supplies and the increasing likelihood of at least partial western energy sanctions. Remain very cautious. A gap up DOES NOT indicate a bottom has been put in. So, if you are trading, trade small, be nimble, and be prepared to accept volatility-caused pain.

Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BITO, WOOF, ZIM, OSTK, DLTR, PLUG, TSLA, MDT, MVIS, AAPL, CLOV, FSK, OLED, ENPH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On the strength of the Russian invasion and increased fear over what it may do to the global economy, the bears controlled the market all day long Monday.  The open was relatively flat, but from that point all 3 major indices sold off the entire day, closing on the lows.  This left us with massive black candles heading toward the breakout point of Bearish-h patterns in all those indices.  On the day, SPY lost 2.91%, DIA lost 2.37% and QQQ lost 3.69%.  The VXX was up nearly 9% to 28.49 and T2122 still has not reached oversold territory, sitting at 25.75.  10-year bond yields rose to 1.782% and Oil (ETI) fell back from the highs, but still gained 3.76% to $120.05/barrel.

The Russian invasion and sanctions continue to be the story driving markets.  MCD stock took a big hit (almost 5%) Monday as it was noted over the weekend that MCD has a larger footprint in Russia than other fast-food chains.  After the close, Russia threatened to stop gas flows to Europe and said the world will see $300 Oil if the West puts sanctions on Russian energy exports.  Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said, “no decision on whether to shut down the flow had been taken yet and the pipeline is running at full capacity now.”  However, the threat was not veiled.  European market gas prices surged almost 80% in reaction to the threat. (Roughly 40% of European natural gas and 25% of the oil comes from Russia.) On the front, the last major holdout RDS.A apologized for buying a shipment of Russian oil after the invasion and announced they will stop buying from Russia. They join XOM, BP, and others in boycotting Russian Oil.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Overnight, the London Metals Exchange was forced to halt the trading of Nickel after an unprecedented 250% spike in the metal.  (Russia is the world’s largest exporter of nickel.)  As with Wheat (Russia and Ukraine produce one-third of the world’s supply) and Oil (Russia is the third-largest exporter), commodities are on a rocketship with the disruptions caused by the Russian aggression.

AAPL will hold its first product launch event of the year today.  Bloomberg reports that the company will announce a low-cost ($399) version of its iPhone, replacing a non-5G model launched in 2019.  Cupertino is also supposed to announce a new mid-range iPad Air, a revised Mac computer, and a new version (15.4) of the iOS operating system

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly deeply in the red again.  India (+0.95%) was the lone green in the region.  However, Shenzhen (-2.62%), Shanghai (-2.35%), and Taiwan (-2.06%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the green side at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.14%), DAX (+0.98%), and CAC (+2.00%) are fairly indicative of early afternoon trading on the continent with 4 smaller exchanges in the red (Athens -2.63% is an outlier) and Russia remaining closed.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open.  The DIA implies a +0.57% open, the SPY is implying a +0.63% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have rebounded to 1.851% and Oil (WTI) is up another 3% to $122.96/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to January Imports/Exports and January Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am).  However, the EIA will also publish its Short-Term Energy Outlook at noon, which may garner some headlines given the Oil situation.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open are limited to DKS and WOOF.  Then after the close ABM, CASY, and SFIX reports.   

The volatility parade continues as the Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities picks up pace. Today it looks like the gap will be bullish after yesterday’s all-day selloff. The question is whether the bulls can sustain momentum after the open given the overnight threats to European gas supplies and the likelihood of some sort of western energy sanctions. So, remain very cautious. If you are trading, trade small, be nimble, and be prepared to accept volatility-caused pain.

Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase gaps and moves. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: EOLS, ENPH, CLOV, OLED, OSTK, MDT, LHCG, PFE, CHPT, LUMN, FCEL, PLUG, TAN You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bears took back control Friday as the Russian attack on a Ukrainian nuclear reactor site (causing fires) led to a 1% gap-down in the large-dap indices and two-thirds of a percent in the QQQ.  From there we had a roller-coaster ride the rest of the day that ended on an upswing the last 15 minutes.  This left us with gap-down Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.81%, DIA lost 0.49%, and QQQ lost 1.45%.  The VXX rose over 4% to 26.20 and T2122 fell but remains in the middle of the range at 52.87.  10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.736% and Oil (WTI) spiked over 7% to $115.37/barrel.

February Payrolls data came out on Friday.  The biggest news was Nonfarm Payrolls grew more than 50% more than expected (+687k vs +400k est.).  The Participation rate also inched up a tenth of a percent versus January.  However, Average Hourly Earnings grew less than expected (+5.1% vs. +5.8% expected) and continue to fall behind inflation.  Finally, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8% (versus 3.9% expected).   

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian Invasion/Sanctions front, Russia reneged twice on ceasefires for civilian evacuations of cities under bombardment, and the US is in talks with Poland and other NATO allies to give Ukraine F-16s, which the US would then replace. V, MA, and AXP all also turned off their payment networks in Russia. For his part, Putin signed a decree that forces creditors to set up bank accounts in Russia and accept payments in Russian Rubles for both sovereign and corporate debt.  The idea is to avoid defaults while also shifting the pain of sanctions onto Western creditors (who must now accept Rubles and then cannot move the money out of Russia).  It’s worth noting that Rosneft, Gazprom, the Railway, and the Russian government all have large dollar payments on outstanding debt due soon (about $800 billion in the next 30 days).  So, western funds, banks, or energy companies expecting payments, you not only can’t get the money you are “paid,” but those funds will also continue to depreciate as the Ruble loses value.

BBBY stock is surging in premarket (up as much as 80%) after it became known that the Chairman of GME owns as much as 10% of the BBBY stock. GME Chairman Ryan Cohen was formerly the founder of online retailer CHWY.  He wrote a letter to the BBBY board suggesting they selloff the BuyBuy Baby chain and consider taking the company private via sale to private equity firms.  However, he reiterated the main problems facing the company (supply chain issues and market share losses) can be solved longer-term.

Overnight, the Asian markets were down hard.  Hong Kong (-3.87%), Shenzhen (-3.43%), and Japan (-2.94%) led the carnage.  In Europe, markets are red at mid-day, but not as bleak as in Asia.  The FTSE (-0.30%), DAX (-1.11%), and CAC (-1.21%) lead because of their size, but some of the smaller exchanges are both much deeper in the red as well as even a couple are slightly in the green in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another gap down.  The DIA implies a -0.78% open, the SPY is implying a -0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.80% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are higher to 1.775% and Oil (WTI) has spiked another 4+% to $120.48/barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release before the open are limited to AMR and CIEN.  Then after the close IEA reports.  

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. The major economic news for later this week includes January Imports/Exports and Trade Balance on Tuesday.  Wednesday brings January JOLTS and Crude Oil Inventories.  Thursday brings inflation information with the February CPI as well as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the February Federal Budget Balance.  Finally, on Friday we get the Michigan Consumer Expectations. 

Once again markets are taking a beating as Russia continues to violate ceasefires and bomb civilian areas of major Ukrainian cities. Russian sanctions and the fallout (the IMF is now predicting a significant hit to global GDP) continue to lead markets lower, but volatility remains high and losses are uneven. So, remain very cautious. If you are trading, trade small, be nimble, and be prepared to accept volatility-caused pain.

Once again, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The back-and-forth volatility continued Thursday with a gap higher at the open in all 4 major indices, which was met immediately by a whipsaw-filled all-day selloff.  All 4 ended up closer to their lows than highs.  The SPY and IWM both printed Dark Cloud Cover signals, the QQQ printed a Bearish Engulfing, and the DIA nearly printed a Dark Cloud Cover.  On the day, SPY lost 0.48%, DIA lost 0.23%, QQQ lost 1.43%, and IWM lost 1.17%.  The VXX rose 1% to 25.15 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 69.66.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.854% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.23% (after having been up 2% early) to $108.28/barrel.

Again, the Russian invasion and sanctions remain the dominant story.  Overnight, Russia attacked (setting fire to) and seized the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Thankfully, Ukrainians safely shut down the plant after Russian attacks had caused fires (which are now under control).  Elsewhere, JPM says they expect the Russian economy to contract 35% in Q2 due to sanctions that are already in place. However, the EU is now seriously considering energy sanctions (in the wake of the nuclear plant attack) and analysts say it’s only a matter of time before Oil and Gas sanctions are added (those account for 60% of Russian exports).  So, let’s take a closer look at the state of the global oil market.   

Russia exports about 5 million barrels of oil per day plus 3 million barrels of other petroleum products (a total of about 13-15% of global petroleum exports).  If those were shut down, in terms of available replacements, the US has already added just under 1 million barrels/day since the beginning of the invasion. (Whether the US sees a longer-term capacity increase is another question.)  In addition, Saudi Arabia could easily increase output by 2-2.5 million barrels per day and UAE can add another million very quickly…if they could be persuaded to do so. If a deal were reached with Iran, they could also add another 1.5 million barrels of export capacity. However, even under that rosy scenario, that still leaves world markets about 3 million barrels/day short.  

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

Still, the US only imports 5% of its daily requirement of oil.  So, a complete stoppage of Russian output would have a relatively minor impact on the US (gas prices).  Europe and Asia would be the places hit worst.  However, it’s possible that things would not get all that much worse than they are now.  The Financial Times reported that 70% of Russian Oil exports are already unable to find buyers as companies are trying to avoid connection to Russia right now.  If true, the world is already down about 5.6 million barrels/day and a maximum increase by the Saudis, UAE, and/or Iran would actually make things better than they are now in terms of oil supply…even if the other 3 million barrels of Russian exports are stopped.  (And they won’t be completely stopped as China will not play ball.)

The point of all this is that things are not as bad as they seem. However, oil markets are running rampant on fear of what might happen and chasing the non-Russian supplies for appearance’s sake even though no oil sanctions have been placed on Russia yet. So, oil prices could continue to climb, but at the moment there is a path to something closer to pre-invasion pricing…if the world will play ball. If not, we could easily see $150 oil at a point where Russian supply is shut down completely. However, we are nowhere near that place yet and at the moment, we are artificially inflating oil by avoiding Russian supply so that refiners don’t look bad.

After the close, COST, AVGO, GPS, MRVL, COO, and TWI all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, SQM, and AGL beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  However, VZIO and SWBI reported missed on both earnings and revenue.

Overnight, the Asian markets were red across the board.  Hong Kong (-2.50%), Japan (-2.23%), and India (-1.53%) led the region lower, but strong losses were widespread.  In Europe, we see an even worse picture at mid-day.  The FTSE (-3.40%), DAX (-3.60%), and CAC (-3.72%) are leading the continent lower in a dramatic fashion.  AS of 7:30 am, US Futures look to be leaning toward following the rest of the world lower.  The DIA implies a -0.99% open, the SPY is implying a -0.99% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.94% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 1.782% and Oil (WTI) is spiking another 2.5% ($110.33/barrel) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Unemployment Rate, and Feb. Participation Rate (all at 8:30 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. 

Markets seem to be taking a beating this morning in the face of Russia’s reckless attack on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. However, we do have the February Payrolls data yet to come in the premarket. So, there is a chance for a rebound, but I would not hold my breath. It appears Mr. Market is deciding that Friday in the face of current news and with a weekend news cycle in front of us should be a risk-off kind of day. You might do well to consider following his lead and get light, flat, or in cash for the weekend. Also remember it’s payday. So, do not forget to pay yourself. As they say, the best time to take profits is “when you have them”…not “someday if they grow bigger.”

Once again, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Keeping with the recent trend of volatility, today was the bulls’ day.  Markets gapped up and, after some whipsaw the first hour, then rallied all day before backing off the last hour in all 3 major indices.  This left us with large white candles with decent-sized wicks on both ends, which closed back up above the T-line in all 3.  On the day, SPY gained 1.83%, DIA gained 1.75%, and QQQ gained 1.68%. The VXX fell almost 6.5% to 24.96 and T2122 jumped to the edge of overbought territory at 89.43.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.903% as markets rushed back into risk assets and Oil (WTI) continues to scream higher, up another 7.8% to $111.52/barrel (a level not seen since 2008).

We may have gotten a “State of the Union address” pop or maybe it was a “Ukraine is not as bad as we thought” rebound at the open Wednesday.  Either way, the market also got boosts from Fed speakers.  James Bullard, a hawk, said the US economy is humming (“more than fully recovered”) and is unlikely to see a large impact from the invasion of Ukraine.  However, he also again called on the Fed to follow through on rate hikes and remove accommodation (rapidly sell off the balance sheet assets) said the Fed may have to get more aggressive if initial hikes do not curb inflation.  Fed Chair Powell also did not throw any curveballs.  He told Congress the labor market is extremely tight and still sees rate hikes coming in spite of the uncertainty that the War in Ukraine has injected into economic forecasts.  Reassuringly, he told Congress the likely path of increases will be in quarter-percent increments (alleviating market fears over the shock of half-percent moves).   

The Russian invasion continues to be the story driving markets.  On the ground, the Russian bombardment of the major cities has intensified and the Russian fleet is now approaching the major port city of Odessa.  The Pentagon says the Russian offensive is moving faster in the South of Ukraine compared to the North or East.  On the sanction front, the US and EU agreed to expand the list of Russian oligarchs being targeted by sanctions.  In addition, for the first time, EU Parliament discussion has now begun on whether sanctions need to be placed on Russian Oil and Gas imports, which has been totally off-limits up to this point.  However, energy makes up 60% of all Russian exports.  So, if you want to cause pain, that is what needs to be hit.  In other related news, two of the Bank of England policymakers told reporters that the war in Ukraine will upend the economic outlook in the UK and should therefore impact policy moving forward. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

After the close, GEF, SPLK, PSTG, VEEV, VSCO, and NTNX all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, JXN beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  On the other side, EC missed on earnings but beat on revenue.  However, CPNG and AEO missed on both earnings and revenue.

So far this morning, TD, SAFM, GMS, KRA, SRLP, and THNPY have reported beats on both lines.  CRH and BJ both beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  On the other side, WB and UTZ beat on earnings but missed on revenue.  However, BBY, BURL, and BIG all missed on both lines.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  Shenzhen (-1.09%) and India (-0.65%) saw the only significant losses.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+1.61%), Malaysia (+1.28%), and Japan (+0.70%) led the rest of the region higher.  In Europe, with the minor exception of Denmark (+0.27%), the entire continent is in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.72%), DAX (-0.86%), and CAC (-0.08%) are typical of the spread across the region in early afternoon trading.  (The Russian exchange remains closed.)  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA is implying a -0.09% open, the SPY implies a -0.18% open and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are trading lower to 1.854% and Oil (WTI) is up another 2% in early trading. However, a lot of economic news is still to come.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q4 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), Feb. Services PMI (9:45 am), Feb. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI and Jan. Factory Orders (both at 10 am).  There are also 2 Fed speakers (Chair Powell testifies at 10 am, and Williams speaks at 6 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BBY, BIG, BILI, BJ, BURL, CNQ, CPG, GMS, KR, REV, SRLP, TD, TTC, and WB.  Then after the close, AQN, AVGO, COST, GPS, MRVL, and VZIO report.

Markets seem to be waiting on economic data in the premarket. The worst of the fear from the invasion of Ukraine has subsided, the Fed speakers (especially Powell) have given us word that the rate increase pace will be slow and steady, and earnings are mostly behind us. Perhaps volatility will start to subside. However, do not just assume it has not gone away. Be prepared for whipsaw action when some news story drops (for example, what would be the impact if the EU did sanction Russian Oil and Gas?). Again we need to remain nimble (small), move cautiously, and keep a hedge (or exit plan) in place. So, don’t get giddy and start chasing.

Once again, ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day (or even week) and you definitely don’t need to chase moves. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ITUB, FFIV, TDOC, PINS, CHGG, CAR, PENN, PAAS, ZIM, PFE, SPCE, CVS, AAPL, CSCO, F, KHC, MSFT, PLUG, MARA, AG, FB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service