Tuesday started off with a Bear trap.  SPY gapped down 0.30%, DIA opened 0.16% lower, and QQQ gapped down 0.32%.  However, at that point, SPY and QQQ began a steady all-day rally.  Meanwhile, DIA chopped sideways in the gap until 1 p.m. when it followed the other major index ETFs higher.  All three posted a strong rally into the close.  This action gave us large white-bodied, Marubozu candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY and DIA also printed Bullish Engulfing signals.  All three crossed back above their T-line after a retest and SPY and QQQ both gave us new all-time high closes.  This happened on well below-average volume across the board.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green again with Financial Services (+0.92%) out in front leading the way higher.  Communications Services (-0.38%) was the only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.67%, DIA gained 0.47%, and QQQ gained 1.05%.  VXX dropped another 1.14% to a very low 10.37 and T2122 climbed back into the center of its mid-range at 43.09. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.431% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.41% to close at $83.04 per barrel.  So, what we saw on Tuesday seemed like a very low volume pre-holiday rally after a gap down. 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to May JOLTs Job Openings, which came in higher than expected at 8.140 million (compared to a 7.960 million forecast and an April value of 7.919 million).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a huge, unexpected drawdown of 9.163 million barrels (versus a forecasted 0.150-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s 0.914 million inventory build).

In Fed speak news, Fed Chair Powell told a conference that US inflation is now falling again.  Powell said, “I think the last reading … and the one before it to a lesser suggest that we are getting back on the disinflationary path.”  However, Powell indicated the Fed still needs to see more before cutting rates, saying, “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% … before we start … loosening policy.”  He went on to say that, while there is two-sided risk, there is still no need to rush into rate cuts.  Powell said, “Given the strength we see in the economy we can approach the question carefully.” Finally, he concluded with the point that the Fed does not want to wait too long, saying “we don’t want to lose the expansion.”  Elsewhere, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC that he sees some “warning signs” of weakening in the economy.  Goolsbee said, “You only want to stay this restrictive for as long as you have to.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, AAL agreed to a deal to purchase 100 hydrogen-electric engines for its regional jets (made by BDRBF).  (It is unclear how new “green” engines would be fitted onto or approved for use on those regional jets.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that major Japanese insurance companies are planning to sell $3.1 billion of HMC stock.  Later, RIVN shares popped as it reported vehicle deliveries that modestly beat analyst estimates for Q2.  At the same time, TSLA stock gapped up more than 4% after it reported deliveries that exceeded expectation, 443,956 actual versus 439,302 (consensus estimate).  Those deliveries were still down 5%, but better than expected.  At the same time, CONN stock plunged on a Bloomberg report that the company is preparing to file bankruptcy.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg also reported that HOOD is considering offering “crypto futures” to the US and European markets.  (HOOD is hoping to use futures licenses from Bitstamp, a cryptocurrency exchange the company agreed to purchase last month.)  Elsewhere, GM reported slower sales growth in Q2, up just 0.6% from the same quarter in 2023.  However, TM posted strong 9.2% Q2 sales growth in North America. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, President Biden called out NVO and LLY, specifically related to their blockbuster GLP-1 weight loss drugs, in an op-ed article.  Later, interestingly given all of its recent rulings, the US Supreme Court refused to hear a challenge to OSHA regulatory authority from an OH company that had claimed OSHA had exceeded its authority to regulate.  Two of the extreme right justices indicated they wanted to hear the case, but they could not find enough support (4 justices must indicate they want to hear a case for it to be taken up).  Later, the FTC announced it would sue to block the merger between TPX and retailer Mattress Firm as being detrimental to competition.  At the same time, a US Appeals Court threw out a dismissal of an antitrust lawsuit against 10 big banks due to a financial conflict of interest.  (The judge’s wife owned stock in at least one of the banks.)  So, the case against BAC, C, JPM, CS, DB, GS, MS, WFC, NWG, and BCS will proceed.  Later, PGR agreed to pay $48 million to settle a class-action lawsuit alleging it systematically undervalued wrecked cars to reduce claims paid.  Meanwhile, after the close, the FDA approved LLY’s early Alzheimer’s drug donanemab.  (Donanemab is priced at $32k per year, slightly higher than the only approved competitor.)  Also after the close, both SLB and CHX disclosed they have received a second set of requests for information from the US Dept. of Justice in connection with their $7.75 billion acquisition deal.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.59% and Shanghai (-0.49%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Singapore (+1.41%), Taiwan (+1.28%), and Japan (+1.26%) led the majority of the region higher.  In Europe, with the lone exception of Norway (-0.19%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.63%), DAX (+1.01%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are at 4.433% and Oil (WTI) is flat at $82.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes that MARKETS CLOSE AT 1 P.M.   In addition, JUNE ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 a.m.), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and May Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Services PMI and S&P Global Composite PMI (9:45 a.m.), May Factory Orders, June ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and June ISM Non-Mfg. Prices (10 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.).  NY Fed President Williams also speaks at 7 a.m.  The major earnings reports set for Tuesday are limited to STZ before the open.  There are no major reports set for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, MARKETS ARE CLOSED.  However, we still get the Fed Balance Sheet.  Then on Friday, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, June Nonfarm Payrolls, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June Participation Rate, and June Unemployment Rate are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, there are no earnings reports Thursday or on Friday.

So far this morning, STZ missed slightly on revenue while beating handily on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday morning LUV announced it has adopted a “poison pill” policy to fend off activist investor Elliott Management.  IF Elliott were to acquire 12.5% of the LUV stock, all existing shareholders would be allowed to buy an additional share for every share they own…at a 50% discount to the market price.  At the same time, PARA is back in the deal arena as Skydance and Shari Redstone’s National Amusements (which owns 70% of the voting shares of PARA) have reached another “preliminary deal” for Skydance to acquire it.  (They had a preliminary deal in June that fell through and then the two sides walked away.)  The new deal reduces Redstone’s take to $1.75 billion with Skydance acquiring half of PARA voting stock at $15/share ($4.5 billion) and contributing another $1.5 billion toward PARA balance sheet debt.

With that background, it looks as if markets are undecided, sitting here at the all-time highs. All three major index ETFs opened flat and have printed small, indecisive candles so far in the premarket. DIA, the laggard, is showing the strongest candle in the early session, but that is hardly a big bull candle. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again and both the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and while the T2122 indicator is in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split between gainers and losers in the premarket. NVDA (-0.98%), the biggest dog, is the worst performer but TSLA (+2.10%), the second biggest trader is the strongest performer of the 10.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday gave us a modestly sideways day with little more gain from QQQ than the SPY and DIA.  SPY gapped up 0.28%, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ opened just 0.17% higher.  From there, all three major index ETFs faded the open, reaching the lows of the day mid-morning.  This was followed by a rally that took SPY and DIA back into the morning gap and QQQ across the gap to new highs in early afternoon.  However, all three spend the afternoon grinding sideways.  This action gave us indecisive candles across the board.  QQQ printed a white-bodied, Hammer, Bullish Harami candle which retested its T-line (8ema) and bounced up off the successful test.  At the same time, SPY printed a black-bodied Dragonfly Doji type candle that also retested and remains above its T-line.  DIA gave us a black-bodied, Spinning Top-type candle with a high wick.  However, DIA also retested and passed the test of its T-line from above.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Basic Materials (-0.95%) out in front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Technology (+0.35%) led the four green sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.21%, DIA gained 0.09%, and QQQ gained 0.58%.  VXX dropped 3.94% to a very low 10.49 and T2122 fell, but again remains in the mid-range, this time just above the oversold territory at 22.15.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.269% and Oil (WTI) spiked 2.35% to close at $83.46 per barrel.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  So, Monday really was a was a “much ado about nothing” day for the market.  If you look very closely you can see a 4-5 day very modest rally (particularly in the QQQ).  However, you really have to look to see it.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in a tick shy of expectations at 51.6 (compared to a 51.7 forecast but up modestly from the May 51.3 reading).  Later, May Construction Spending was down 0.1% (versus a forecast of +0.3% which was also the April value).  At the same time, the June ISM Mfg. Employment Index was lower than anticipated at 49.3 (compared to a forecast of 50.0 and a May reading of 51.1).  The headline June ISM Mfg. PMI was also lower than predicted at 48.5 (versus a 49.2 forecast and May’s 48.7 number).  The June ISM Mfg. Price Index was lower than expected at 52.1 (compared to a 55.8 estimate and the May 57.0 reading).

In Fed speak news, NY Fed President Williams told a conference Sunday (those comments were not made public until Monday), “I’m confident that we at the Fed are on a path to achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis.” 

In stock news, on Monday, BA agreed to buy SPR for $4.7 billion (all stock) with parts of the supplier going to EADSY (Airbus).  As part of the deal, SPR will pay EADSY $559 million.  At the same time, RACE announced two warranty extension plans that will allow owners of their hybrid models to get battery replacements at particular times (the 8^th and 16^th year of battery life).  Later, UBS announced it had completed it merger (acquisition) of CS in Switzerland.  Meanwhile, DE announced 590 layoffs (280 at an IL plant and 310 at an IA plant), citing declining demand.  At the same time, Reuters reported that AMZN has become the first company to “sidestep” a global standard for verifying carbon offsets.  (This is particularly interesting since AMZN founder Bezos was the founder and Chair of the group that created the standard.)  AMZN claims they still support the standard for verification as a model, but want a new, higher standard.  Later, EADSY announced its plane deliveries rose 2% in the first half of 2024 to 323, including 67 planes in June.  At the same time, BLK announced it will buy British company UK Data Group for $3.23 billion in cash.  Later, GS reported that, during June, global hedge funds sold shares of technology, media and telecom companies at the fastest pace since 2016.  However, GS said this trend (three straight months of such selling) was almost entirely driven by short sellers targeting the all-time highs.  After the close, shareholders of CRM voted to reject the CEO (and other executive’s) compensation plans.  However, the vote is not binding on board action.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, BMY agreed to pay $2.7 million to settle an Israeli anti-trust case over blocking a generic version of its cancer drug Imnovid.  At the same time, the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of a ND convenience store, reinstating its lawsuit against the Fed over a 2011 regulation allowing credit card companies (V and MA) to charge “swipe fees” per transaction up to a maximum $0.21 each.  Following the court throwing out the Chevron Deference, this will be one of the new suits that will challenge agency’s authority to regulate.  Later, Reuters reported that anti-trust regulators in France are set to charge NVDA over anti-competitive practices.  At the same time, Keith Gill (known as “Roaring Kitty”) was sued by GME investors who allege they lost money due to him running a “pump-and-dump” scheme on the stock. Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that part of the new Biden Administration student debt relief plan may resume, reversing an injunction issued by a judge in KS. 

Elsewhere, the US Supreme Court punted on cases involving GOP-led states ability to regulate social media.  The court unanimously held that the lower courts had not adequately assessed the impact of the laws in question impact on the social media company’s first amendment rights.  The ruling cast doubt on the TX law (which a lower court had upheld) prohibiting moderation by META, GOOGL, and SNAP among others.  Later, the SEC sued SICP for securities fraud, alleging the crypto-focused company misleads investors about bank secrecy and anti-money laundering compliance programs.  Separately, SICP agreed to pay $63 million to settle probes of the company’s compliance lapses.  At the same time, a federal judge blocked a MS law that required users of social media platforms to verify ages and restricted access by minors without parental consent.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly in the red.  Japan (+1.12%) and Singapore (+0.88%) were by far the biggest gainers while Shenzhen (-0.97%) and South Korea (-0.84%) led the more numerous losers.  In Europe, the bourses are mostly red with Russia (+1.39%) the only noteworthy gainer12 of the 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (-0.83%), DAX (-0.99%), and FTSE (-0.32%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:00 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a move lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.31% open, the SPY is implying a -0.36% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.46% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.45% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.73% to $83.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to May JOLTs Job Openings (10 a.m.) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  However, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 9:30 a.m.  The major earnings reports set for Tuesday are limited to Tuesday MSM, PSNY, and RDUS before the open.  There are no major reports set for after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday MARKETS CLOSE AT 1 P.M.   In addition, JUNE ADP Nonfarm Employment, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, May Factory Orders, June ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, June ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks.  On Thursday, MARKETS ARE CLOSED.  However, we still get the Fed Balance Sheet.  Then on Friday, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, June Nonfarm Payrolls, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June Participation Rate, and June Unemployment Rate are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, STZ reports.  There are no earnings reports Thursday or on Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday the Supreme Court put Presidents above the law for their Article Two powers.  In addition, it gave Presidents a presumptive immunity for all other acts that could be construed as “official” even at the outside limits of their duties.  So, Trump is immune from prosecution for threatening and strong-arming state election officials or calling on his Dept. of Justice to declare an election was fraudulent sans evidence, or take millions of dollars in exchange for a pardon.  However, perhaps most importantly, SCOTUS also put major hurdles on both bringing prosecution of a President (prosecution must first prove bringing such a case would not interfere with the independence or functioning of the executive branch of government) and then tied the hands behind the back of prosecution by saying no evidence can come from a President or their Administration members “official duties” including communications and documents. This means that America is now dependent on the honor, decency, and goodwill of Presidents to not abuse power.  That is a very terrifying prospect given the proven character of the current Republican candidate.

In other news, the headline Euro zone inflation fell to 2.5%.  However, the Euro zone core inflation stayed at 2.9%, missing analyst estimates of 2.8%.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Wall Street firms such as JPM are telling clients to position for a potential Trump win in November.  They are telling clients that would cause inflation to last longer and result in higher long-term bond yields.  In the short end of the curve, they are telling clients to take profits now on the shorter-dated bonds.  This could be at least a partial cause of the very recent rising low duration bond yields.

With that background, it looks as if markets are signaling a down day. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket lower and have printed black-bodied candles since that point. They have all crossed below their T-line (8ema) on this action. However, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is now modestly bearish. On the other hand, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and while the T2122 indicator is at the bottom of its mid-range, it is still not in oversold territory. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the red this morning. The biggest dogs, NVDA (-1.04%), TSLE (-1.42%), and AMD (-1.01%) are leading tech and the market lower at least early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday gave us a modestly higher open.  SPY and QQQ both gapped up 0.15%, while DIA opened 0.05% lower.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied hard for 45 minutes (SPY and QQQ) or 75 minutes in DIA.  This took the SPY and QQQ to new all-time highs.  However, this was a Bull trap as the rug was pulled out from under the market and we saw a strong and steady selloff all the way until 3:35 p.m.  Only a modest bounce during the last 30 minutes kept them from closing on the lows.  This action gave us large, indecisive, black-bodied Spinning Top type candles in SPY, QQQ, and DIA.  SPY and QQQ were also Bearish Engulfing of the prior candle while DIA was a Bearish Harami compared to the prior candle body.  All three retested their T-line (8ema) with QQQ and DIA remaining just above while SPY crossed just below following the test. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-0.58%) out in front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Communications Services (+0.89%) led the four gaining sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.39%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.52%.  VXX climbed just over one percent to close at a still very low 10.92 and T2122 climbed again, but remains in the center of its mid-range at 61.69.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.384% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to close at $81.52 per barrel.  So, Friday was a volatile day that saw a strong early run met with a sustained selling that only ended with some short-covering.  This all took place on a bit below-average volume in SPY, average volume in QQQ, and slightly above-average volume in DIA.

Friday was also month and quarter end.  For June, SPY gained 3.20%, DIA gained 0.93%, and QQQ gained 6.30%.  Over Q2, SPY gained 4.04%, DIA lost 1.67%, and QQQ 7.91%.  So, as has been the case all year, QQQ and SPY lead (mostly on the strength of the AI trade led by NVDA), while the much less techie DIA followed.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included May Core PCE Price Index, which was down as expected at +0.1% (month-on-month) compared to a +0.1% forecast and April’s +0.3%.  On the Year-on-Year basis, the May Core PCE Price Index was +2.6% (right on the 2.6% forecast and down from April’s +2.8% reading).  The headline on a Month-on-Month basis the May PCE Price Index was also down as predicted at +0.0% (versus a 0.0% forecast and down from April’s +0.3% number).  On the Year-on-Year basis, May PCE Price Index was +2.6%, right on the +2.6% forecast and down a tick from April’s +2.7%.  At the same time, May Personal Spending was up a tick, but below what was anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and April’s +0.1% value).  Later, the June Chicago PMI was significantly stronger than was expected at 47.4 (versus a 39.7 forecast and May’s 35.4 reading).  Then, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was down but a bit higher than predicted at 68.2 (compared to a 65.6 forecast and May’s 69.1 value). On the future prospects side, Michigan Consumer Expectations were up slightly to 69.6 (versus a 67.6 forecast and May’s 68.8 reading).  Further out, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were down strongly to 3.0%, versus the 3.3% forecast and prior reading.  On the longer-term, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also 3.0% (better than the 3.1% forecast and the same as the prior month’s 3.0%).

The most important thing that happened Friday was another (terrible) Supreme Court ruling that was a massive win for corporations and big money in the aptly named case “Relentless v. Dept. of Commerce.”  The decision wiped out the 40-year-old “Chevron Deference,” which had held that Congress is incapable of writing perfectly detailed and crystal-clear laws.  In addition, Courts are not subject experts and are likewise unable to devine either the intent or understand and decide the nuances and issues that are involved.  So, under the previous Chevron Deference, if there was a question of nuance or implementation of an aspect of the law, the courts would defer to the interpretation of the experts at the Federal agency in charge of applying that law.  This new ruling throws that out, saying the courts will decide all such issues (or, theoretically, Congress could revisit every law and repass new revisions every time somebody tries to challenge an aspect of the law). On one hand, this decision is a huge, full-employment jobs program for lawyers. More importantly, it is a license to challenge any and every aspect of regulation that is not clearly and explicitly set out in law.  (If there is any possible way to interpret a law differently than federal agencies have interpreted it in the past, it is now up to a court to decide how it should be construed.)  This drastically reduces the power of the Federal government and means that the courts will decide vastly more of the issues regulating business and personal behavior at the expense of real expertise or speed.  So, a ton of guardrails just got removed from food and drug safety, environmental protection, labor protection, etc. and the world just got much slower. Meanwhile, money got more powerful and the courts just got much, much busier.  This was a huge win for those who want less (or no) regulation.  It was also a huge defeat for anyone who does not trust businesses to ALWAYS do the right thing and act in the best interest of society.  Another outcome is that a lot more of the federal budget will be spent on litigation.

In stock news, on Friday BA (and NASA) again delayed the possible return trip of the company’s Starliner spacecraft.  The announcement said the problems with the BA spacecraft will require at least a “couple more weeks” of testing by engineers before it can be determined if it is safe to attempt the return trip.  In another classic “own goal” the BA executive on the conference call announcing the decision to reporters criticized the press for reports saying the two astronauts in the Starliner crew were stuck in space.  This led to NASA confirming that if worse comes to worse, they can launch a SpaceX (BA rival) mission to retrieve the crew.  Elsewhere, CNBC reported that F now expects to sell a $30k electric vehicle that is profitable within 2.5 years.  On Saturday, AMZN announced it is doubling the free cloud service credits (to $200k) that is gives to startups.  The move comes in an effort to better compete with MSFT, which is making gains in cloud computing market share. Elsewhere, on Sunday US prosecutors met with BA and families of BA crash victims from 2018 and 2019.  The topic of discussion was on whether the US will prosecute BA for violating their consent decree that allowed them to avoid prosecution over those two crashes.  The contention is that the company did not change and improve quality after the consent decree given the many revelations of the last year or so.  On Sunday evening, CNBC reported that the Dept. of Justice is now seeking a guilty plea from BA over the matter. There was no reply from BA when asked for comment.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NTSB and FAA announced they are investigating a LUV flight that took off from a closed airport in ME.  At the same time, EU antitrust regulators announced they will release their decision on the HPS $14 billion acquisition of JNPR by August 1.  Later, the US Dept. of Energy said they are bidding to buy $2.7 billion of domestically-supplied uranium to boost the US nuclear energy supply chain.  This will benefit LEU and a British/Dutch company (Urenco) with uranium mining operations in NM.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced it has opened a recall inquiry into more than 120k HMC Ridgeline trucks over failures of the rearview cameras.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Only Australia (-0.22%) and Thailand (-0.12%) fell below break-even while Shanghai (+0.92%), Shenzhen (+0.57%), and India (+0.55%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.46%) seems to love first round election results while the DAX (+0.27%), and FTSE (+0.27%) are also leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start as well.  The DIA implies a +0.18% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are spiking again up to 4.412% and Oil (WTI) is up another two-thirds of a percent to $82.05 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), May Construction Spending, June ISM Mfg. Employment, June ISM Mfg. PMI, and June ISM Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports set for Monday either before the open or after the close.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get May JOLTs Job Openings, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, and Fed Chair Powell speaks (9:30 a.m.).  Then Wednesday, MARKETS CLOSE AT 1 P.M.   In addition, JUNE ADP Nonfarm Employment, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Trade Balance, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, May Factory Orders, June ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, June ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks.  On Thursday, MARKETS ARE CLOSED.  However, we still get the Fed Balance Sheet.  Then on Friday, June Avg. Hourly Earnings, June Nonfarm Payrolls, June Private Nonfarm Payrolls, June Participation Rate, and June Unemployment Rate are reported.  NY Fed President Williams also speaks. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from MSM, PSNY, and RDUS.  Then Wednesday, STZ reports.  There are no earnings reports Thursday or on Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported it has seen an unpublished government report that claims the lithium market is about to change.  Even with huge deposits and despite massive investment from outside the country, Argentina has only had one lithium mine come online in the last 10 years.  However, the report cited by Bloomberg claims that four new lithium mines will come online in Argentina in the next few weeks to months.  This will nearly double the production capacity of that fourth-largest lithium producing country.  Elsewhere, early Monday an SEC filing showed that social media poster (leader of the meme stock movement) has taken a 6.6% ownership position in CHWY. (This confirms the huge volatility caused by his cryptic posting of a dog picture Thursday.)

In foreign election news, polls released Saturday show the UK is headed for its first Labor government since 2010.  With the election set for July 4, the Labor Party is at 40%, the current-government Conservatives are at 20% (and falling), and the Reform Party is at 17%.  Across the English Channel, the first round of the French election took place Sunday.  The far-right National Rally party won 34%, the left-wing New Popular Front won 28.1%, and President Macron’s centrist Ensemble party came in third at 20.3%.  All other parties will be eliminated in next Sunday’s second and final round of voting.  So, between now and next week, the fight will be on to capture the 17%-18% of votes that were cast for parties eliminated yesterday.  (It is worth noting that in just-dissolved Parliament, Macron’s party only had 43% of the seats.  So, he was a coalition President even in the last Parliament.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are starting the premarket modestly stronger. All three major index ETFs retested their T-line in the early session but have made modest moves up off that retest. It is worth noting that SPY and QQQ have printed indecisive Spinning Top-type candles so far this morning. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is modestly bullish. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range. Therefore, the market has plenty of room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. However, the biggest dog of all, NVDA (-1.10%) is one of the two laggards.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets started out just on the red side of flat.  SPY opened 0.03% lower, DIA opened 0.15% lower, and QQQ opened 0.04% lower.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in waves ranging from up half a percent to down a third of a percent.  The most notable move of the day was the late-day rally on the final up wave.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles (some form of a Spinning Top) in all three.  SPY and DIA both retested their T-line (8ema) from above and passed by bouncing up off that line.  However, it should be noted that all three of the major index ETFs traded at far less than half of their 50-day average volume. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.49%) leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-0.38%) was the laggard and only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.16%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.26%.  VXX fell another 0.64% to close at 10.81 and T2122 climbed again, this time closing right in the center of its mid-range at 52.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.286% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.19% to close at $81.86 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a very low volume and just on the bullishly indecisive day where it looks like traders were either holding off until after the Presidential Debate or PCE data release.  (Or maybe traders have already left for a very long holiday break.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in slightly lower than expected at 233k (compared to a forecast of 236k and a previous week value of 239k).  In terms of ongoing claims, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than predicted at 1,839k (versus a 1,820k forecast and the prior week’s 1,821k reading).  At the same time, May Core Durable Goods Orders were down at -0.1% month-on-month, compared to a forecast of +0.2% and the April +0.4% reading.  For the headline number, May Durable Goods Orders (again, month-on-month) were down but higher than anticipated at +0.1% (versus the -0.5% forecast but down from April’s +0.2% value).  Meanwhile, Q1 Core PCE Prices were higher than expected at +3.70% (compared to the +3.60% forecast and sharply higher than April’s +2.00% value).  At the same time, Q1 GDP was stronger than was predicted at +1.4% (versus a +1.3% forecast but down as expected from Q4’s +3.4%).  In terms of Q1 GDP Price Index, it came in exactly as predicted at +3.1% (compared to a +3.1% forecast and the Q4 +1.7%).  Elsewhere, the Preliminary May Goods Trade Balance was a bit worse than anticipated at -$100.62 billion (versus the -$96.00 billion forecast and -$99.41 billion April reading).  At the same time, Preliminary May Retail Inventories were lower than April at +0.0% (compared to April’s +0.2% number).  In the housing market, May Pending Home Sales well lower than predicted at -2.1% (versus a forecast of +0.6% but far, far better than April’s -7.7%).  Then after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet fell significantly, down $22 billion for the week, to $7.231 trillion from the prior week’s $7.253 trillion.

In terms of Fed speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Thursday that he expects one rate cut in 2024 and as many as four cuts in 2025. As all Fed speakers, Bostic hedged, saying, “There are plausible scenarios in which more cuts, no cuts, or even a raise could be appropriate. I will let the data and conditions on the ground be my guide.”  At the same time, Fed Governor Bowman spoke again, continuing her recent statements that she is not ready to cut rates until data more clearly shows inflation is falling.  She said, “we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.”  Bowman added, “Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive.” 

After the close, NKE missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  Both were significant with a 3% miss on revenue and a 18.8% beat on earnings.  It is also worth noting that NKE also lowered forward guidance.

In stock news, on Thursday BP announced they have halted hiring and is slowing the rollout of renewable energy (offshore wind) projects in a bid to win over investors.  At the same time, NYCB said it expects to do a one-for-three reverse stock split in mid-to-late July.  (No specific date was announced.)  Later, WMT announced it has added NKLA hydrogen fuel-celled semi-trucks to its Canadian fleet.  (This comes less than two months after reported that WMT was not receiving the TSLA semi-trucks it had ordered due to production delays.)  After the close, NOK announced it will acquire INFN in a $2.3 billion deal ($6.65 per share, a 26.4% premium on INFN’s Thursday close price).  Meanwhile, ILMN announced it will take a $1.47 billion “goodwill” charge related to its forced spinoff of Grail.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that MSFT has begun informing its customers that a Russian state-sponsored hacking group had breached their internal systems, including emails.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention narrowed the recommendation for the use of RSV vaccines.  GSK, PFE, and MRNA are the drug companies in that market.  GSK got crushing in its home British market, falling 7%.  Meanwhile, UBER and LYFT agreed to pay $175 million to settle a lawsuit over classifying drivers as contractors.  (The news came shortly after the MA Supreme Court ruled that a fall vote will let voters decide whether drivers are contractors or employees.)  At the same time, the FCC Chair (Rosenworcel) demanded that T, VZ, CMCCSA and other cable and telecom companies report their efforts to stop fraudulent political robocalls and other AI-generated political mis-information. Later, Federal regulators FERC voted 2-to-1 to approve a new LNG plant in LA state.  The move clears the way for the private “Venture Global” to become the second largest LNG exporter in the US behind LNG (Cheniere).  At the same time, the NTSB once again had to sanction BA (and said it would refer the matter to the Dept. of Justice) this time over the company’s misrepresentations and illegal release of partial undisclosed investigative information (which had tried to attribute the January 5 ALK mid-air door blowout to “lost paperwork” in an attempt to downplay company quality issues).  Once again, BA responded with a meaningless public apology. 

Elsewhere, the ultra-Republican Supreme Court blocked the EPA from regulating ozone emissions that may worsen air pollution in neighboring states.  The ruling in favor of KMI and three GOP-led states will prohibit the EPA from regulating smog-producing ozone emissions from power plants and steel furnace operations.  Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that META must face a class-action lawsuit alleging it prefers foreign workers over American citizens (because it can pay lower wages and have more docile employees when the threat of losing US residency is tied up in the employment agreement.  At the same time, in a quite surprising 5-4 decision, the US Supreme Court threw out the opioid settlement with Purdue Pharmaceuticals that had been meant to resolve the bankruptcy of the company.  Without specifically attacking the practice, this decision will make it harder for companies to use the “Texas Two-Step” process to avoid liability by declaring bankruptcy and making the waiver of liability part of the settlement agreement with creditors (plaintiffs).  (MMM and JNJ are major companies trying to use that process now to avoid liabilities.)  After the close, BAC, GS, JPM, C, MS, UBS, DB, BCS, BNPQY, and NWG settled a long-running antitrust lawsuit for rigging the $465.9 trillion interest rate swaps market.  As usual, the ten banks were not forced to admit wrongdoing and will pay only $46 to $71 million.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with seven of the region’s 12 exchanges in the green.  Shanghai (+0.73%), Japan (+0.61%), and Taiwan (+0.55%) paced the larger gainer group.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (-0.99%) and Thailand (-0.65%) led the losing exchanges.  In Europe, markets are much greener at midday with 11 of 15 bourses above break-even.  The CAC (-0.31%), DAX (+0.62%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.304% and Oil (WTI) is up almost a percent to $82.51 per barrel in early trade. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, and May Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), June Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at noon.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday it was announced that North Korea will send troops to Ukraine to support Russia within a month.  Reportedly, Russia claims these troops will be engineering units that will free up more Russian troops (for their typical “meat wave” assault tactics).  However, Pentagon spokesman told the press that the US expects the troops to be “cannon fodder,” meaning they expect the North Koreans to be part of combat operations.  Most analysts expect this announcement to be yet another Putin gambit to get the West to self-restrict by not sending troops to train AFU (Ukraine military) troops and take over border patrol duties from Ukrainian troops.

In other news, most snap analysis of last night’s Presidential debate indicate that Biden performed poorly, reinforcing his “age problem” by not coming across as strong (in the sense of physical vigor as potentially indicated by a forceful voice).  On the other side, as usual ex-President Trump lied non-stop.  Fact-checkers found 30 lies or misleading statements by Trump during his share of the 90-minute event.  Still, most see it as a victory for Trump.

With that background, it looks as if markets (or at least the broader indices) are starting the premarket stronger. SPY and QQQ gapped up to start the premarket and had printed small white-body candles since that start. For its part, DIA has reacted much more modestly with a slight open higher in the early session and giving us a small, indecisive, white-bodied candle since then. lower. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is modestly bullish. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has plenty of room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning. Only GOOGL (-0.16%) is in the red early. You should also be aware that the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.91%) and the second-biggest, TSLA (+1.12%) are leading the rest of the market higher early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day modestly lower.  SPY gapped down 0.20%, DIA gapped down 0.23%, and QQQ started off 0.20% lower at the open.  From that point, all three major index ETFs spent the rest of the day meandering sideways.  Only SPY ended on a short spurt to close bear the highs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three as DIA printed a Spinning Top that retested and stayed above its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ printed larger-body white candles with small upper wicks.  Both of them retested their T-line from above and bounced up off to close above.  This all happened on well-below average volume in all three, especially the DIA.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclicals (+0.63%) leading the gainers higher.  Meanwhile, Utilities (-0.43%) and Financial Services (-0.41%) led the laggard sectors lower.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA gained 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.21%.  VXX fell another 1.09% to close at 10.88 and T2122 gained a bit but remains in the lower half of its mid-range at 34.04.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.325% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly (-0.21%) to close at $80.66 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was another “wait and see” day where markets basically treaded water while waiting on GDP or the Presidential Debate (or more likely PCE data on Friday). 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included Building Permits, which came in a bit higher than expected at 1.399 million (compared to a forecast of 1.386 million but below the last 1.440 million reading).  Later, May New Home Sales were lower than predicted at 619k (versus the 636k forecast and well down from the April 698k value).  Then the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected large inventory build of 3.591 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 2.600 million barrels and the prior week’s 2.547-million-barrel drawdown). 

Then after the close, the results of the Annual Fed Bank Stress Tests were announced.  The Fed said that all 31 banks passed the tests, even withstanding a hypothetical severe economic downturn.  However, the banks tested this year showed that they would have larger (but still sustainable) losses under this year’s scenarios than the very similar 2023 scenarios.  The Fed announcement said the largest banks would see 9.9% dips in “high-quality capital” at the worst point of this year’s harshest scenario.

Also after the close, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LEVI and MLKN both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  BB is of special note.  BB had a massive miss on revenue but still beat (by 175%) on the earnings line.

In stock news, on Wednesday, AIG sold its travel insurance unit to ZURVY (Zurich Insurance) for $600 million.  Later, Reuters reported (exclusively) that German firm Robert Bosch is considering a takeover bid for WHR according to three sources.  (WHR was up 17.10% on the day on this report.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that B is exploring “strategic alternatives” including a sale of the company.  (B stocks was up 7.63% on the news.)  During the day, AMZN passed the $2 trillion valuation mark, becoming just the fifth company to do so.  (Analysts attribute the climb to AI mania, but that does not really explain Wednesday’s 3.91% gain to a level not far above the May and April highs.)  After the close, Reuters reported that CG and KKR have won the auction to acquire the $10 billion student loan portfolio from DFS.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the NYSE denied the claims of IBKR, which resulted in the brokerage losing $48 million.  (IBKR had tried to get NYSE to pay for trade executions IBKR made when BRKA dropped from $622k/share to $185/share on June 3, prior to the BRKA stock being halted due to erroneous data. At the same time, the NHTSA announced that TM is recalling 145k vehicles over side curtain air bad issues.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce awarded a $75 million grant to ENTG as part of the Chips Act program. (The money will go toward development of a new ENTG facility in CO.    At the same time, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 307k vehicles in North America over an airbag sensor wiring problem.  Later, Bloomberg reported that VLVLY (Volvo) will delay shipments of its EX30 electric vehicle due to the higher tariffs the US has imposed on Chinese imports.  As a result, VLVLY won’t deliver these cars until 2025 (previously scheduled for late summer to early fall).  Eventually, Volvo will begin producing the cars in Belgium during 2025, which will allow it to avoid the higher tariffs by shipping to the US from that location instead of the China plant.  After the close, MO filed a request to the FDA to authorize it to sell nicotine pouch products in the US.  Also after the close, Republican state AGs refused to accept any increase in NHTSA CAFÉ (mileage) standards on car makers.  The Biden administration’s watered-down 2% per year increase (only starting in 2026) has “forced” those state AGs to file suit against the NHTSA for exceeding its regulatory authority.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Hong Kong (-2.06%) and Shenzhen (-1.53%) were way out in front pacing the losses.  Meanwhile only India (+0.74%) and Singapore (+0.35%) were in the green in the region.  In Europe, the picture is more mixed but still leans to the red side at midday.  The CAC (-0.67%), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (-0.31%) lead the region on volume.  However, Russia (+1.39%) is the biggest European mover in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.329% and Oil (WTI) is up a third of a percent to $81.19 per barrel in early trade.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q1 GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, and May Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), and May Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AYI, MKC, and WBA.  Then after the close, NKE reports.    

In economic news later this week, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, the US Dollar hit a 38-year high against the Yen.  (Speculation continued to ramp that the Bank of Japan will intervene to make the Yen stronger soon as BoJ currency chief Kanda said they were “seriously concerned and on high alert”.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the SEC could well approve ETFs based on the spot price of ether cryptocurrency to begin trading as soon as after the July 4 holiday.

So far this morning, MKC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AYI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WBA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  IT is worth noting that WBA also lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if markets are starting the premarket modestly lower. All three major index ETFs have retested their T-lines again in the early session and so far all have remains above that 8ema on small white-bodied candles. However, those candles are indecisive and did start off from a modest gap down in the early session. Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning. Only AAPL (+0.37%) and AMZN (+0.30%) are in the green early. You should also be aware that the biggest dog, NVDA (-1.65%) is the biggest mover and biggest loser of the group this morning, acting as an anchor on the rest of the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw SPY and QQQ open higher and DIA opened down slightly.  SPY gapped up 0.23%, QQQ gapped up 0.446%, and DIA opened 0.12% lower.  From that point, the three major index ETFs diverged.  SPY spent the day grinding sideways.  At the same time, QQQ rallied modestly all day, closing near the highs.  However, DIA sold off with more vigor than the other two until 12:50 p.m. before grinding sideways near the lows the rest of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top that retested and crossed above its T-line (8ema) again.  The QQQ gave us a gap-up, white-bodied candle the crossed back up above its T-line.  Meanwhile, DIA printed a gap-down, black-bodied candle that retested (from above) and closed still just above its T-line.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Industrials (-0.84%) and Utilities (-0.83%) out front leading the red sectors lower. Meanwhile, Technology (+1.30%) was the biggest mover and only gainer.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.37%, DIA lost 0.75%, and QQQ gained 1.14%.  VXX fell another 1.79% to close at 11.00 and T2122 dropped back to the bottom of its mid-range, just outside oversold territory at 22.50. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.224% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.02% to close at $80.80 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw the long-time leading index ETFs perhaps putting in a bottom to their pullback while the DIA might have started its own pullback after a six-day rally.  It is also worth noting that NVDA (+6.76%) broke its 3-day selloff to again lead tech names and the second most-traded name, TSLA, also gained 2.61%.  This put us back in the pattern the market has seen for months.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited.  It included the June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which came in above expectation at 100.4 (compared to a 100.0 forecast but down from May’s 101.3).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, which showed an unexpected inventory build of 0.914 million barrels (versus a forecasted drawdown of 3.000 million barrels but lower than the prior week’s 2.264-million-barrel inventory build).

In terms of Fed speak, Fed Governor Bowman indicated she felt it is appropriate to hold rate policy steady (no hike or cut) for some time.  Very early Tuesday she did this by outlining scenarios or threats for both a hike or cut.  She said, “I have not written in further rate cuts in my statement of economic projections for the bulk of this year.”  She went on to say that she is open to a rate hike if inflation does not pull back further, but that is inflation is moving toward the 2% goal “it will eventually become appropriate to lower the federal funds rate.”  Later, Fed Governor Cook told the Economic Club of NY that the Fed is back on track for a rate cut…when the economy meets her expectation.  Specifically, Cook said, “With significant progress on inflation and the labor market cooling gradually, at some point it will be appropriate to reduce the level of policy restriction to maintain a healthy balance in the economy.”  (This seemed to be a bit more dovish than Bowman, although both Governors hedge their statements.)

After the close, FDX missed slightly on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line.  At the same time, WOR missed by quite a bit on both the top and bottom lines. However, FDX raised forward guidance and post-market trading reacted positively.

In stock news, on Tuesday Reuters reported that BA and EADSY (Airbus) are near a deal to carve up their supplier SPR.  Reportedly, EADSY will take the SPR plant in Kinston, NC as well as the plant in Northern Ireland.  The remainder of the company would go to BA.  Later, XOM told Reuters it may need to suspend operations at its refinery in Northern France if strikers continue to block access to the plant.  (That plant produces 20% of the refining capacity for all of France.)  In fighting the union demands, XOM said that refinery has lost more than $535 million over the last 5.5 years.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that takeover talks between DASH and its London-based rival Deliveroo have stalled.  (The two sides had far different valuations for the Deliveroo company.)  After the close, RIVN shares spiked more than 60% after VLKAF (Volkswagen) announced a $5 billion investment (by 2026) in RIVN as well as a joint venture with the EV carmaker. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the NHTSA announced that F will recall 668k F-150 pickup trucks over a transmission issue.  At the same time, TSLA announced another recall of its Cybertrucks, this time requiring physical (not software) updates.  The cause of this recall is wiper and trim defects in 11,000 vehicles.  Later, VZ agreed to pay a $1 million fine over repeated 911 outages in six states during 2022.  At the same time, a US District Judge rejected a $30 billion antitrust settlement where V and MA agreed to limit the fees they charge merchants.  (The objecting majority of merchants who had opposed the settlement allege that the fees remain too high for the service being provided by V and MA.)  After the close, the NTSB charged NSC for its venting and burning of hazardous materials after the February 2023 train derailment in East Palestine OH.  (Last month NSC agreed to a $15 million penalty and $57.1 million in reimbursement for government cleanup costs to resolve a US lawsuit on the event.)  Also after the close, firefighters in the state of CT sued DD, MMM, and HON over protective “turnout gear” that was contaminated with forever chemicals (PFAS). (Last year the three companies reached an $11 billion settlement over the same chemicals being in firefighting foam and other products that then polluted drinking water supplies.)

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board with the lone exception of Australia (-0.71%).  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.55%), Japan (+1.26%), and New Zealand (+1.01%) led the region higher.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean toward the red side at midday.  The CAC (-0.56%), DAX (+0.11%), and FTSE (+0.01%) lead the region lower while Russia (+1.39%) is an outlier to the upside in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, but the QQQ implies a +0.12% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are up to 4.283% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $81.36 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Building Permits (8:30 a.m.), May New Home Sales (10 a.m.), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and the Fed Bank Stress Test Results (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GIS, PAYX, and UNF.  Then after the close, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q! GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, May Retail Inventories, and May Pending Home Sales.  Finally, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the state of DE is close to approving a new law that will drastically change corporate governance for companies incorporated in that state.  The law would allow corporations to enter into contracts giving specific shareholders outsized power over board decisions.  For example, in February a DE Court invalidated an agreement that had given one shareholder (the founder) veto power over all board decisions of MC.  Under the new law, that contract would stand.  Elsewhere, after the close, Reuters reported an internal memo obtained from CDK Global (software) indicates the company does not expect to recover from the outage caused by hacker attacks before the end of the month.  (That CDK software powers the internal operations of 15,000 car dealers and service centers in the US and Canada.  As a result of the outage, those businesses are operating on paper without visibility into parts inventories, online ordering of parts, insurance pricing, or buyer vetting.)  Finally, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Assn. (ELFA) announced that May business equipment financing borrowing increased 11% in May versus the same month in 2023.  However, this was down 7% from April 2024.  ELFA speculated that businesses are holding off on equipment spending until interest rates drop.

So far this morning, GIS reported a miss on the revenue line while beating on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive this morning, perhaps waiting on data later in the week. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly higher, but have printed small, black-bodied candles since then with varying degrees of pullback. SPY and QQQ both remain above their T-line (8ema) while DIA is retesting its own T-line from above in the early session. Before you get caught up in the tick-level movements, just bear in mind that all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range (albeit the very bottom of that mid-range). Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, that biggest dog, NVDA (+2.48%) continues its Tuesday bounce-back and will do much to pull other indexes (and the whole market) higher.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged Monday, even on broadly sideways action.  The SPY opened 0.06% higher, DIA gapped up 0.30%, and QQQ gapped down 0.39%.  From there, SPY and QQQ put in slow selloffs (QQQ faster than SPY) that both hit a crescendo the last 30 minutes of the day and closed on their lows.  For its part, DIA rallied sharply after the open until 11 a.m.  From that point, DIA followed the slow selloff (even slower than SPY) until 1:30 p.m. and then moved sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us a black-bodied Inverted Hammer that crossed below its T-line (8ema) in the SPY. QQQ printed a large-bodied, black candle with upper wick that also crossed below its T-line.  However, DIA gave us a gap-up, white-bodied candle with an upper wick.  This all happened on slightly less-than-average volume in the QQQ and DIA with SPY having volume that was well-below-average. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+2.42%) way out in front (by 1.1%) leading the other eight green sectors higher.  Meanwhile, Technology (-1.24%) was the worst-performing sector by more than 1.25%.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.34%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ lost 1.30% as money rotated out of the tech names.  VXX fell 0.80% to close at 11.20 and T2122 moved up to the high-end of its mid-range at 69.59. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.23% and Oil (WTI) popped 1.16% to close at $81.67 per barrel.  So, Monday was a rotation day with money fleeing technology (NVDA was down 6.68% on $54 billion in stock traded) and seeking safety in the big oil (XOM +2.97%, CVX +2.60%, and COP +3.44%) and financial names (JPM +1.21%, BRKB +1.06%, BAC +1.34%). It is worth noting that NVDA, which has been the driving engine of the market for months, has been down almost 13% over the last three trading sessions.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

In terms of Fed speak, Cleveland Fed President Mester (retires next week) said she believe the Fed needs to remain open to selling more of its mortgage-backed securities as part of reducing the Fed Balance Sheet.  However, she said that she doesn’t think this will happen soon.  Mester said, “I don’t think it’s immediate that we should be selling MBS.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC that while inflation is (slightly) cooling, he is looking for more confirmation before a rate cut.  Goolsbee said he is a closet optimist but that the Fed need to get “a little bit more confidence on the inflation side.”  He said, “If unemployment claims are going up (the unemployment rate is inching up) many of the other measures have cooled down to something like what they were before the pandemic and you start to see weakness on consumer spending.”  If this comes to pass Goolsbee said the Fed will need to start thinking about balancing both sides (inflation and employment) rather than focusing on just inflation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Daly told an audience that inflation is not the only risk.  She said, “We must continue the work of fully restoring price stability without a painful disruption to the economy.”  She continued, saying the Fed must “exhibit care” …  (while there is still) “more work to do” (on bringing inflation down) … “inflation is not the only risk we face.”

After the close, there were no noteworthy earnings reports.

In stock news, on Monday, UPS sold its Coyote Logistics unit to RXO for $1.025 billion (UPS bought the company for $1.8 billion in 2015). Later, NVO announced it will spend $4.1 billion to build a new manufacturing plant in NC to boost production of its highly-profitable weight loss drug Wegovy.  At the same time, PARA announced it will raise the price of its streaming services in late summer.  Later, BA announced its troubled Starliner has again delayed its return to earth.  The first manned flight of Starliner is stuck, docked to the International Space Station after having rescheduled its undocking three times now.  (Current plans are for a July 6 attempt to return to earth, which, if hit, would mean the 8-day mission had been forced to last a month.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that contrary to earlier rumors, AAPL and META are not in talks about forming an AI partnership.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals threw out a proposed class-action suit against UBER which alleged the company process for terminating low-rated drivers was racially discriminatory.  (Evidence had not been presented showing the company terminated a higher percentage of non-white drivers.  However, without discovery, the plaintiffs argued they could not get such data.)  Later, the CEO Stankey of T, asked that Congress give the FCC power (and a mandate) to require big tech firms like META and GOOGL to pay into a fund to be used to subsidize access to broadband services.  At the same time, family members of BA 737 MAX crash victims asked a US District Judge to appoint a corporate monitor to examine BA safety and corporate compliance procedures.  The request comes after the group had accused BA of reneging on the promises the company gave in 2021 to avoid prosecution related to the two crashes in 2018 and 2019.  Later, PacifiCorp (owned by BRKB) settled with 378 plaintiffs for $150 million related to the 2020 fires caused by the utility’s electric equipment.  This settlement resolves nearly all individual claims, but many corporate and government claims remain unsolved.  The US has also threatened to sue PacifiCorp for failure to pay $356 million in costs and damages for the single “Slater” fire.  (This brings the company’s total settlements to over $1 billion for those fires.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Australia (+1/36%), Japan (+0.95%), and India (+0.78%) led the region higher.  In Europe, stocks are mostly lower at midday.  The CAC (-0.66%), DAX (-0.88%), and FTSE (-0.19%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed but positive start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.41% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.224% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.65% to $81.10 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman twice.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CCL and SNX.  Then after the close, FDX and WOR report. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from GIS, PAYX, UNF, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS.  On Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday Bloomberg reported 2023 saw record contributions to 401(k) accounts again as in 2022.  The average percent of salary deposited into the 4012(k)s stayed the same at 11.7%, but average salaries increased more than had been seen in quite a while.  Elsewhere, the San Jose Mercury News reported Monday that for the first time, utilities (especially electric companies) across CA and broader in the West, enter peak summer wildfire season without insurance.  Similar to the ways that hurricanes have made insurance companies stop serving FL, TX, and other disaster-prone regions, wildfires have caused insurance companies to raise rates to untenable levels or abandon insuring major utilities altogether.  As a result, the utilities are self-insuring this fire season in what amounts to a gamble of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.  Finally, Reuters reported that the TSA screened an all-time record of 2.99 million passengers Sunday.  This was the highest number of passengers ever screened on a single day.

In late-breaking news, the EU Antitrust Commission charged MSFT with “abusive bundling” of its Office and Teams applications.  (Teams is just a business version of Skype.)  In 2023, MSFT unbundled the two from their subscription “365” service in a bid to head off these charges.  However, the EU called the move “insufficient” due to the already accomplished integration and Office’s massive market share.  Elsewhere, Fed Governor Bowman (a long-time Hawk) told a London audience that she was open to raising rates if inflation does not pull back further.  However, she also hedged her bets by saying, “Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate…”

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive but leaning bullish so far this morning. SPY and QQQ are both retesting their T-line (8ema) from below. Meanwhile, DIA is printing a gap-up, black-bodied candle in the premarket such that it is back below Monday’s close. Just continue to bear in mind that all three major index ETFs are still close to their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the upper-end of its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green again this morning. Only META (-0.16%) and MSFT (-0.10%) are in the red so far in the early session.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, SPY was the only gapper, while QQQ and DIA opened little changed.  SPY gapped down 0.46% (likely mostly due to the SPX dividend), while both DIA and QQQ opened just 0.07% lower. From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways for the rest of the day with QQQ showing more volatility (wave height) than the two large-cap ETFs.  This action gave us indecisive, Doji or Spinning Top-like candles in all three.  SPY retested (and passed the test) its T-line (8ema).  The other two remained above their own T-lines.  All three major index ETFs printed less-than-average volume.  On the week, DIA printed a Bullish Engulfing candle that crossed back above its T-line while SPY and QQQ printed high-wick, white-bodied candles at all-time weekly high closes.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Healthcare (+0.67%) out in front leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Basic Materials (-0.49%), Utilities (-0.48%), and Energy (-0.47%) paced the losses.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.46% (again, mostly on the SPX dividend), DIA lost 0.19%, and QQQ lost 0.46%.  VXX fell 2.25% to close at 11.29 and T2122 moved back into the lower-end of its mid-range at 29.10. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.257% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.82% to close at $80.63 per barrel.  So, on Friday we saw nothing day with Triple Witching passing on low volume and volatility.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Preliminary June S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in above expectations at 51.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.0 and the May 51.3 value).  At the same time, the Preliminary June S&P Global Services PMI was even more above what was anticipated at 55.1 (versus a 53.4 forecast and May’s 54.8 reading).  This gave us a stronger than predicted Preliminary June S&P Global Composite PMI that was at 54.6 (compared to the 53.5 forecast and May’s 54.5 reading).  Later, May Existing Home Sales were also strong at 4.11 million (versus the 4.08 million forecasted but down from April’s 4.14 million number).  This was a decline of 0.7%.  Meanwhile, the May US Leading Economic Indicator Index was lower than was forecast at -0.5% (compared to a -0.4% forecast but better than April’s -0.6% reading).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday the FDIC and Fed gave failing grades to four of the eight largest US banks in relation to their plans to unwind derivatives trades in the event of a market shock. C, JPM, GS, and BAC were ordered to improve their bankruptcy plans after being chided for their deficiencies.  Later, APPL was forced to announce that it will not roll out its AI products (vainly labeled “Apple Intelligence”) in the EU in 2024 due to anti-trust concerns and fear of violating the EU’s DMA law.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Taiwan (-1.89%), Shenzhen (-1.55%), and Shanghai (-1.17%) paced the losses, leading the region lower.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Finland (-0.31%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.84%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+-0.50%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.07% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.267% and Oil (WTI) is up three-tenths of a percent to $80.97 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday all we have is two Fed speakers.  Fed Governor Waller spoke at 3 a.m. and Sn Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at 2 p.m.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman twice.  Then on Wednesday Building Permits, May New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Bank Stress Test Results are reported.  Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q! GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, May Retail Inventories, and May Pending Home Sales.  Finally, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, CCL, SNX, FDX and WOR report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from GIS, PAYX, UNF, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS.  On Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that China is pushing V and MA to lower their bank card transaction fees inside China.  If that were to happen, it seems likely pressures from the EU (and much less likely the US) would follow quickly.  At the same time, Fed data released Friday shows that the US job market has largely come back to normal.  The data indicates that immigrants have helped a lot, filling lower-end jobs that American’s don’t want.  The study looked at the ratio of JOLTS (job openings) to unemployed persons. That ratio is down from a historical high of over 2-to-1 after the pandemic to a current 1.25 level.  This puts us back in line with pre-pandemic historical lows.  (If you prefer to look at the inverse, there are 0.7 unemployed persons per job opening in the US.)

In late-breaking news, TGT made a move to increase its online third-party sales.  TGT announced Monday that any company working with e-commerce firm SHOP can apply to join the TGT third-party marketplace.  Elsewhere, EU regulators announced that AAPL is in breach of the European Digital Markets Act for failing to make changes to its app store (allowing third-party apps to steer customers to alternative marketplaces or their own websites).  AAPL could face fines up to 10% of the company’s total annual turnover (about $400 billion).

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive so far this morning. None of the three major index ETFs show much change and all remains modestly above their T-line (8ema). Remember that SPY and QQQ are about 1% from their all-time high and DIA is less than 2% from that mark. So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the lower-end of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. However, it is that biggest dog, NVDA (-1.97%), that is in the red and holding the others in check.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

TSLA and AVGO led broader market ETFs to open higher (again) Thursday while DIA started lower.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, QQQ gapped up 0.74%, and DIA gapped down 0.20%.  From that opening level, SPY and QQQ slowly sold off, reaching the lows at 12:35 p.m.  At that point, both of the broader index ETFs reversed course and slowly rallied the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA sold off a bit more sharply, reaching its lows at 10:40 a.m. Then it ground sideways until 12:35 p.m. when it started its own slow, steady rally lasting 3 p.m. when it had recrossed the opening gap.  From there, DIA slowly sold back down toward the opening level by day end.  This action gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Hanging Man type candle in the SPY.  The QQQ gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top candle.  Finally, DIA printed a gap-down Doji candle that did not quite retest its T-line (8ema) from below.  It is worth noting that this was the fourth-straight new record high close in both the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.27%) way out in front (by half a percent) leading the rest of the market lower.  Meanwhile, Technology (-0.06%) and Utilities (-0.06%) holding up better than other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.20%, DIA lost 0.21%, and QQQ gained 0.54%.  VXX was down 0.28%, closing at a very low 10.86 and T2122 dropped back down into its oversold territory at 12.70.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell sharply again to 4.246% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.49% to close at $78.01 per barrel. So, on Thursday we saw divergence in the market as NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, and AVGO nearly alone dragging the broader index ETFs higher (perhaps with the help of good PPI data), while 70% of the market was down.  It is also worth noting that SPY had only half of its average volume while DIA and QQQ had less-than-average volume.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 242k (compared to a forecast of 225k and the prior week’s 229k value).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, were also above expectations at 1,820k (versus a forecast of 1,800k, and the prior week’s 1,790k reading).  At the same time, May Core PPI (month-on-month) was down at +/-0.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and well below the April +0.5% value).  On the headline side, May PPI (month-on-month) was also down significantly at -0.2% (versus the +0.1% forecast and far below April’s +0.5% reading).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet actually grew slightly on the week, now standing at $7.259 trillion (compared to last week’s $7.256 trillion) for a $3 billion increase.

In economic speak news, Treasury Sec. Yellen told the Economics Club of NY that US public sector investments are crucial to sustainable growth because it attracts private capital investments.  However, she warned that China’s model of huge state subsidies of industrial projects was unacceptable to the world.  (Expanding on this, in more of an economic or economic-political philosophy clarification, Yellen said that supply-side economics relies too heavily on tax cuts and has been proven to fail to benefit workers, causing disparity.)  She said “We have learned through experience that heavy-handed central planning through government dictates is not a sustainable economic strategy … But neither is traditional supply-side economics, which ignores the importance of public infrastructure, education and workforce training and government-supported basic research.”  She concluded, by saying tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation have not fueled “growth and prosperity for the nation at large.”  Elsewhere, NY Fed Pres. Williams pushed back against the idea of rate cuts anytime soon in his noon speech.  Williams said, “we aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now (at the Fed) … and it’s premature to speculate about them.” 

After the close, ADBE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, RH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that ADBE also raised forward guidance.  (ADBE was up 17% in post-market trading.)

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that BA is investigating new quality issues with 787 Dreamliner jets that have not been delivered yet.  This comes after the company discovered hundreds of fasteners were incorrectly installed in fuselages.  (It was found than many were incorrectly torqued, or tightened, while some were in the wrong place altogether.)  At the same time, INSM announced that its negotiations with AZN over commercialization of its brewnsocatib drug have ended with no deal.  Later, Bloomberg reported that WFC had fired more than a dozen employees from its wealth mgmt. and investment unit for faking work by using simulation of keyboard activity.  At the same time, WMT announced it will re-launch a private label fashion line focused on attracting Gen Z customers. 

Elsewhere, TSN suspended its CFO (the great-grandson of company founder) after his second arrest for driving under the influence in two years.  At the same time, F announced it will soon reverse its decision and allow all of its dealerships to sell electric vehicles.  (Previously, F had required dealers to spend between $500k and $1 million on equipment, training, and “programs” before they were allowed to sell F electric vehicles.)  Later, GME stock prices were boosted on the day after Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty) exercised 40,000 call options, taking possession of 4 million new shares and making him the fourth-largest shareholder with over 9 million shares.  (Gill also took profits on 80,000 call options, meaning he liquidated all 120k call options he held going into the day.)  GME was up 14.28% on the day.  At the same time, Elon Musk claimed victory early Thursday, but the shareholder vote did not begin until after the close. By 7 p.m. Eastern, it was announced that shareholders had in fact approved Musk’s $56 billion pay package.  The package had originally been based on the value of TSLA rising to more than $650 billion between 2018 and 2028.  (As of now, TSLA has a $582 billion market cap, but in 2021 it was worth $1.2 trillion at its peak.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the largest oil industry trade group (representing the likes of XOM and CVX) sued the EPA, seeking to block the Biden Administration’s efforts to reduce car emissions.  (The EPA tightened, slightly…by 2% per year after 2026, to encouraging electric vehicle adoption.) The suit alleges the EPA exceeded it authority in setting emissions standards that would require a change in fuel type for the auto industry to meet.  Later, the state of FL and DIS ended the long feud (based on the Gov. retaliating against the Mouse House for its opinion on his “Don’t Say Gay” law), by signing a 15-year deal allowing DIS to develop additional portions of the oversight district. (The board of that district was the method the Gov. used to attack DIS for its criticism.)  At the same time, the FAA Administrator Whitaker admitted the agency had been “too hands off” with BA by focusing on analysis of the faked or wrong paperwork BA submitted rather than in-person audits of production line work (prior to the paperwork being created). Whitaker said that approach had been corrected and will not revert (in what was an unstated claim that BA could not be trusted).

Meanwhile, JPM won a court battle with a Greek fintech firm who created an app called Viva Wallet.  The court ruled JPM had no incentive to depress Viva Wallets value because the bank owned 48.5% of the app-creating company.  Under the ruling, the Greek firm loses the right to refuse JPM’s offer to buy them out and valued the company at $5.4 billion.  At the same time, a lawsuit was filed against AAPL in CA, accusing the company of 12,000 female employees less than men for comparable jobs.  Later, the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of SBUX, throwing out a lower court ruling that the company had to abide by an NRLB injunction requiring the company to rehire employees fired when they sought to unionize.  (The ruling was actually that the lower court had used the wrong legal standard for siding with the NLRB and the case must be reheard at the lower court level.)  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a complaint to the EU antitrust regulators over alleged user tracking by its Chrome web browser.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with six exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Taiwan (+0.86%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-0.94%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is much weaker with 14 of the 15 bourses in the red and only Russia (+0.43%) in the green.  The CAC (-2.58%), DAX (-1.51%), and FTSE (-0.53%) are a good representation of the spread and lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.88% open, the SPY is implying a -0.60% open, and QQQ is implying a -0.33% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.207% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $78.67 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include May Import Price Index and May Export Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Monetary Policy Report (11 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, cocoa traded back above $10k per ton as the supply outlook worsens.  (The world’s top producer Ivory Coast halted exports for June and forward sales of next season’s crop on Thursday.)  Elsewhere, twice-impeached, convicted felon ex-President Trump said Thursday that, if elected, he would reduce corporate tax rates again, as well as considering cuts to other income tax rates (in addition to extending the tax cuts from his administration scheduled to sunset in 2025). This was part of his campaign to buy corporate donors and PAC support.  (The statement was made to a group of CEOs including JPM’s Dimon and AAPL’s Cook.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported some surprising data out of NY.  The report said average Manhattan apartment rents unexpectedly slipped in May, with new leases showing a 3.5% decline in price from a year earlier.

In geopolitical news, Russian “President” Putin made a propaganda announcement of his preconditions that Ukraine would need to meet before he would even begin peace negotiations (following 2.5 years of his unprovoked invasion and genocidal war against Ukraine).  Those preconditions include Ukraine ceding their provinces of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to Russia.  (Russia illegally annexed those four oblasts after its invasion.  In addition, he demanded that Ukraine denounce and give up its long-standing ambition to join NATO.  (The latter would leave Ukraine as a target he can invade again without NATO retaliation, should they ever do anything he does not like or he just feels more prepared.)  These are all obvious non-starter conditions, but are intended as PR ahead of the global peace conference to be attended by 80-90 countries (Russia not invited).

In other news, interestingly, Elon Musk’s big $56 billion pay package win in the shareholder vote Thursday DOES NOT override the court ruling from five months ago, when Musk’s pay package was thrown out as egregious as part of a shareholder lawsuit.  However, the post-verdict vote could help his (technically TSLA’s) appeals of the verdict in the future.  Not one to let things alone, Musk told the board that “his Optimus humanoid robots” could make TSLA worth $25 trillion (which would be 55% the S&P 500’s combined value at today’s prices).  That figure should be weighed against TSLA’s current $580 billion value.

With that background, the Bears have control in the premarket this morning. The SPY and QQQ opened a bit higher but have put in large black-body candles since then. (However we should note they are both well up off the early session lows.) Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the premarket and has also sold off since then. but again us up off the early session lows.) Again, SPY and QQQ sit at all-time highs as they wait for the open while DIA is 4.3% below its all-time high. So, Bears are in control this morning, but are coming from different starting places. Again, the short-term is mixed with DIA definitely bearish and SPY and QQQ clearly bullish. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, QQQ is now extended far above its T-line and is badly in need of rest or pullback. Neither of the others are extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its oversold range. So, the bottom line is that outside of the QQQ, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, it is again the two biggest TSLA (+1.35%) and NVDA (+0.03%) that are the ones holding onto green territory. Remember, its Friday, Pay Day, and that next Wednesday is a market holiday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday started with a strong bullish gap and then the rest of the day was really a sideways grind punctuated by small rallies and selloffs.  The SPY gapped up 0.87%, DIA gapped up 0.92%, and QQQ gapped up 0.86%.  However, from there we saw a major divergence with SPY and QQQ continuing to follow through with a rally the first hour before slowly grinding sideways with a slight bearish trend.  After the 5-minute reaction to the Fed decision/statement at 2 p.m., SPY was back to its opening level and QQQ was half way back down to that point.  The rest of the day was a roller coaster ride for those two leading index ETFs that left them little changed from the 2 p.m. level.  Meanwhile, after the gap higher, DIA sold off slowly and steadily all day, recrossing the gap on the Fed 5-minute selloff and then riding waves sideways the rest of the day.  DIA retested and failed its T-line (8ema) from below while SPY and QQQ both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.This action gave us Shooting Star type candles in the SPY and QQQ (more body on QQQ’s star) and a gap-up Bearish Engulfing of a Doji in the DIA. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.97%) way out in front (by almost a percent) leading the rest of the market higher.  Meanwhile, it was Communications Services (-0.97%) that was lagging well behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.82%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 1.31%.  VXX was down almost 2%, closing at a very low 10.89 and T2122 spiked higher but settled back to close in the center of its mid-range at 51.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 4.318% and Oil (WTI) was 0.56% to close at $78.33 per barrel.  So, what we saw Wednesday premarket joy at good CPI data and then a drift lower until the Fed data wasn’t terrible.  The remainder of the day was a roller coaster ride on every word Powell uttered and the tea leaf reading of dot plots and statement parsing.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included May Core CPI (month-on-month), which came in down and a tick lower than expected at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and April reading).  On a year-on-year basis, May Core CPI was also a tick lower than expected and two-tenths down from April at +3.4% (versus the +3.5% forecast and +3.6% April value).  At the same time, the headline May CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +/-0.0%, lower than the forecasted +0.1% and well down from April’s +0.3% number.  On a year-on-year basis, May CPI was down a tick to +3.3% (versus the +3.4% forecast and April reading).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories gave us an unexpected inventory build of 3.730 million barrels (compared to a forecasted draw down of 1.200 million barrels and the prior week’s 1.233-million-barrel build). Later, the May Federal Budget Balance was far higher than predicted at -$347.0 billion (versus a -$279.6 billion forecast and far worse than April’s +$201.0 billion surplus).

However, the big afternoon news was from the Fed, which left Interest Rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%.  At the same time, the FOMC Economic Projections (dot plots) showed a dramatically higher Q2 Current Year Interest Rate Projection of 5.1% (compared to a Q1 forecast of 4.6% this year and even well above the expected 4.9% value).  Meanwhile, the Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection was 4.1% (which was dead on the predictions but two ticks higher than Q1’s forecast of 3.9% for 2025).  The Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection remained unchanged at 3.1% (in line with the forecast and Q1 estimate for 2026).  Finally, the Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection was up, but in line with predictions at 2.8% (compared to a 2.8% forecast of the forecast and up from Q1’s 2.6% average projection for long-term).

In terms of words, the Fed Statement said there has been “modest further progress toward the committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.” It also removed the entire section about reducing the Fed’s pace of decline in reducing its balance sheet.  During his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said “Our economy has made considerable progress toward both goals over the past few years.”  He continued, “We’ll need to see more good data to bolster our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” …  “We see today’s report as progress and as, you know, building confidence … But we don’t see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant beginning to loosen policy at this time.”  Finally, during questioning, he seemed to indicate that jobs data may be overstated.  Still, he said the jobs market remains strong and the cooling is gradual (which is a good thing).

After the close, AVGO reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, PLAY reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AVGO also raised its forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday FDX announced it is cutting 2,000 “back office” jobs in Europe amid weak freight demand. Later, CAT hiked its dividend by 8% to $1.30/share and announced an additional $20 billion in stock buybacks.  At the same time, LUV CEO Jordan announced that he will not resign in the face of calls for him to do so from activist investor Elliott Investment Mgmt. (Elliott recently announced they’d taken a $1.9 billion position in LUV and openly called for leadership change.)  Later, SPCE announced a 1-for-20 reverse stock split to take effect on June 14.  After the close, JPM raised its guidance, saying it expects investment banking revenue to jump 25%-30% in Q2. 

Elsewhere, just a reminder that the TSLA shareholder meeting and vote on CEO Musk’s $56 billion pay package will be held today. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the NHTSA announced that FSRN (Fisker electric vehicles) will recall 18,000 cars due to faulty software that cause the cars to act “in non-compliance with safety standards.”  Later, a US appeals court threw out a lower court order that had agreed with the NRLB ruling prohibiting AMZN from firing union supporters.  The ruling essentially allows AMZN to fire employees it thinks support unions or unionization of AMZN facilities.  At the same time, thousands of AMZN “flex drivers” (who work like UBER drivers) classified as contractors have filed arbitration claims. The 15,800 drivers submitted claims, seeking to be treated as full-time employees, paid overtime, and reimbursed for work-related expenses like mileage and cell phone use.  (453 similar cases are being litigated in courts.)

Meanwhile, a lawsuit was filed against CAG alleging the company has been deceiving consumers by both “short weighting” its packages and shipping frozen fish products that were not 100% fish.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the NHTSA is seeking information from GOOGL related to a series of incidents involving the Waymo (the company’s self-driving vehicles unit).  The investigation stems from 22 reports the NHTSA received in May related to 17 collisions.)  Later, after the close, the FAA Administrator (head) Whitaker told the Senate that it will maintain increased in-person oversight of BA and SPR for the foreseeable future.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again but leaned to the green side with eight of the 12 exchanges above break-even. Taiwan (+1.19%), New Zealand (+1.11%), South Korea (+0.98%), and Hong Kong (+0.97%) paced the gains.  However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.23%), DAX (-1.05%), and FTSE (-0.45%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed to green open.  The DIA implies a -0.29% open.  However, SPY implies a +0.13% open and QQQ implies a +0.66% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are at 4.316% and Oil (WTI) is off by 0.65% to $77.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, and May PPI (all at 8:30 a.m., and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Williams (noon) and Treasury Sec. Yellen (noon).  There major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Thursday, KFY and SIG.  Then, after the close, ADBE and RH report.   

In economic news later this week, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, SIG and KFY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In miscellaneous news, AAPL’s two-day rally Tuesday and Wednesday (following its “AI-heavy” developer’s conference) has taken it back to the top spot as most valuable (largest market cap) in the world.  AAPL was worth $3.29 trillion at the close mid-week. Elsewhere, the US Treasury expanded sanctions on Russia Wednesday.  The new sanctions forced Russia to halt all Dollar-based and Euro-based trading on its main stock exchange.  Meanwhile, the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau testified before Congress that it has reported that JPM and PYPL intend to use their customer’s payment data to allow targeted advertising.  Chopra called on Congress to pass laws preventing this financial transaction data from being sold for marketing purposes. Finally, an EPA study found the air in southeast Louisiana (Chemical alley) is toxic, containing a thousand times higher levels of ethylene oxide than is considered safe.  Long-term exposure to this chemical is known to cause cancer.  (Dangerous levels start at 11 parts per trillion, but measured levels reached 40 parts per billion.)

In Fedwatch news, following Wednesday’s announcements and statements, the Fed Funds futures show 91.7% of traders expect no cut in July.  The probabilities also show a 61.5% chance of a September cut, a 74.3% probability of a cut by the meeting in November, and a 93.5% likelihood of a cut by the December meeting.  With that said, the average of the Fed dot plots now expects one rate cut this year.

With that background, the Bulls gapped QQQ and to a lesser extent SPY higher to start the premarket. (Mostly on an Elon Musk tweet that he is confident he has the votes to get his $56 billion pay package approved later today.) Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the early session. All three of the major index ETFs have printed indecisive black-bodied candles since that start to the morning. Again, SPY and QQQ sit at all-time highs as they wait for the open. So, we have a mixed picture in the short-term, but on numbers, the Bulls have the upper hand, just certainly not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, QQQ is now extended far above its T-line and is badly in need of rest or pullback. Neither of the others are extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the the center of its mid-range. So, the bottom line is that outside of the QQQ, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, TSLA (+6.86%) and NVDA (+2.08%) are two of the four in the green (and remember those two trade much more stock than any others on average…many times more in fact). Remember, that we do get PPI numbers and Jobless Claims this morning and that has the potential to move markets (although usually not as much as yesterday’s CPI numbers). So, beware of volatility early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service