Daily Trade Ideas Public Archives - Page 82 of 243

Jobless Claims Today UK Raises Forecast

May 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher marginally at the open Wednesday. From there, the large-caps vacillated sideways all day, while the QQQ dols off after the morning grind. This left us with a shooting star type candle (new all-time high close) in the DIA, and black candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.03%, DIA gained 0.23%, and QQQ lost 0.34%. The VXX fell 2.5% to 39.19 and T2122 rose, but remains outside the overbought territory at 75.14. 10-year bond yields fell significantly again to 1.57% and Oil (WTI) fell six-tenths of a percent to $65.30/barrel.

PTON lost 14.56% on Wednesday after announcing the recall of all their treadmills due to the risk of death. During the afternoon, SEC Commissions Gensler told Congress that he has a team studying the gamification of trading caused by features of brokerages like Robinhood. He also raised concern about the flood of orders that are routed through Citadel, VIRT, and a few other “order buyers.” He followed this by stating that he has asked the SEC staff to solicit public comment (a pre-requisite step to changing regulations on brokerages). So, action may be on its way…slowly.

After the close, Fed member Clarida told CNBC that he feels the Fed is a long way from the goals they have set and are therefore a long way from tightening policy (regardless of Treasury Sec. Yellen’s Tuesday statement). While certainly not definitive, this is an indication the Fed is signaling it will remain independent (or at least wants to be seen as independent) of comments and opinions of government entities. In unrelated central-bank news, the Bank of England has announced that it expects UK growth to surge 7.25% this year (a 2% increase over the previous 5% forecast and slightly above market analyst estimates for the revision).

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,321,244 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 593,148. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below last summer’s peak to an average of 47,945 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 718 per day. MRNA announced after the close that unpublished early testing from an ongoing trial is indicating that a booster shot of their vaccine is showing promising immunity results against the South African and Brazilian variants. (No word on the “617” double-mutation variant that is ravaging India now.) In no so good news, the CDC announced Wednesday that the number of vaccine doses administered is now 20% lower than one week ago, despite more than adequate supply. This problem is highlighted when CVS announced they are now taking walk-ins for vaccination at more than 8,300 retail locations.

Globally, the numbers rose to 155,922,329 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,258,293 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 800,022 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 13,085 new deaths per day. The catastrophe in India continues as the country reported yet another peak of over 412,000 cases (which is staggering since most experts believe this to be an undercount by a magnitude of at least 3 times). However, in some good news, a study out of Qatar shows the existing PFE-BNTX vaccine is effective against the same 2 variants, but like with the MRNA news, no mention of the news “double-mutation” (617) variant.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Japan (+1.80%) and Thailand (+1.46%) led the gains while Shenzhen (-1.58%) and New Zealand (-0.75%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are also mixed and mostly flat on very modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.21%) is the exception, making a bigger move on the new BOE growth forecast. However, the DAX (+0.05%) and CAC (+0.07%) are more typical as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, if slightly green open (at least before economic data releases). The DIA is implying a +0.15% open, the SPY implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am) and 4 Fed speakers (Williams at 9 am, Bostic and Mester at 1 pm, and Kaplan at 6:05 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, AES, ABEV, BUD, APTV, MT, ARW, AVYA, BLL, BDX, BV, BIP, BLDR, CNQ, CAH, CNP, COMM, XRAY, UFS, SATA, EPC, EPAM, AVRG, EXPI, FIS, FLIR, HAIN, HWM, HII, IIVI, NSIT, IRM, K, KL, KTB, LIN, MGA, MMS, MDU, NIDD, MRNA, MUR, NJR, NLSN, NOMD, NRG, OGE, OPCH, PAE, PZZA, PENN, PRMW, PWR, REGN, SBH, SRLP, SUN, TPR, TRGP, TEN, TMX, BLD, THS, VNTR, VIAC, VSTO, VNT, W. WCC, and ZTS before the open. Then, after the close, AL, AQN, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, BECN, BKD, CVNA, ED, CVET, BAP, CWK, DBX, ENDP, EOG, EXPE, FND, FNF, FRG, IAC, IHRT, MTZ, MCK, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NFG, NWSA, OTEX, CNXN, PTON, PFSI, POST, QDEL, RGA, REZI, ROKU, SEM, SWX, SFM, SQ, TDS, TDC, TSE, and USM report.

The bulls tried and were met with immediate resistance Wednesday. The high-tech Nasdaq was protected especially strongly by the bears as the QQQ now looks to be in a definite pullback and trying to test support. Meanwhile, the large-caps remain in that sideways range they have been stuck in for going on 3 weeks. As I’ve said, indecision and chop are not a good environment for most traders. So, continue to be very careful, hedged, and/or nimble.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. The first rule of successful trading is “don’t lose money,” not “trade every day.” So, respect potential support and resistance levels, but you don’t have to assume they will hold. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Yellen Walks Back Remark as Doge Soars

May 5, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down Tuesday and followed through to the downside in the morning, especially in the high-tech-heavy Nasdaq. From that point forward there was a very slow, gradual rally the rest of the day. This left us with gap-down Hammer-type candles in all 3 major indices. Both the large-cap indices remain in the recent range, but the QQQ gapped down below that range. On the day, SPY lost 0.59%, DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ lost 1.80%. The VXX gained almost 3.8% to 40.21 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory to 65.48. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.582% and Oil (WTI) rose about 2% to $65.76/barrel.

During the day, Treasury Sec. Yellen told a conference that US interest rates may need to be raised modestly to keep economic growth from overheating after the trillions of dollars in stimulus. However, she followed up quickly by saying these were needed investments and will improve our competitiveness and economic growth in the longer run. Interestingly, while this news was widely publicized immediately, the market did not react strongly to the downside, despite the implied threat of inflation. Nonetheless, afterhours Yellen clarified her remarks saying she was not predicting or recommending a Fed rate hike. Instead, she said was just offering her opinion.

Crypto mania has hit again, this time in Doge as the currency rose 35% Tuesday and is up another 20% in premarket today. The surge in orders has crashed Robinhood crypto trading again this morning. Much of the enthusiasm comes from an Elon Musk tweet touting his appearance on Saturday Night Live on May 8, referring to himself as “The Dogefather.” So, speculators are hoping he will say something on the show that will bring in new buyers of Doge tokens.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,274,659 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 592,409. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 49,396 new cases per day. However, deaths have plateaued again, now at 718 per day. On Thursday, President Biden announced a new national goal that at least 70% of Americans have at least on vaccination shot by July 4 and also to have over half the population (160 million) fully vaccinated by then. This goal anticipates a drop-off in demand for vaccine. However, vaccine reluctance will still be a major hurdle with current vaccination rates down 50% from just 3 weeks ago.

Globally, the numbers rose to 155,061,321 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,243,519 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 805,993 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising again at 13,192 new deaths per day. Although India remains the global epicenter, the entire Asian region is feeling the impact of the current surge from variants. In Osaka Japan, ICU beds are at 99% capacity as of Tuesday. Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are all also implementing measures to get more oxygen as the wave spreads to their countries.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Thailand (-2.14%) was an outlier, but Japan (-0.83%), Shanghai (-0.81%), and Hong Kong (-0.49%) were typical of the region. However, in Europe, markets are strongly green across the board so far Wednesday. The FTSE (+1.17%), DAX (+1.33%), and CAC (+0.80%) are typical, but some of the smaller exchanges have rallied twice as hard as the majors. It appears the catalyst was business activity (Purchasing Manager’s Index) and good earnings. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to the upside. The DIA is implying a +0.17% open, the SPY implying a +0.29% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.50% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Employment report (8:15 am), Services PMI (9:45 am), ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed speakers (Evans at 9:30 am, Rosengren at 11 am, and Mester at noon). Major earnings reports on the day include ABC, AAQQ, GOLD, BDC, BWA, BRKR, CDW, CERN, CLH, CNHI, DNB, EMR, EXC, FLEX, FTS, GM, HLT, HFC, JLL, NI, ODP, OMI, PSN, PFGC, PNW, PEG, REYN, SMG, SRE, SBGI, SITE, SPR, SGRY, TT, VRTV, WAT, and WRK before the open. Then, after the close, ADT, ALB, APA, ATO, EQH, BKNG, CENTA, CENT, CF, CLW, CTSH, CNDT, CXW, CW, DCP, EC, NVST, EQT, WTRG, ETSY, FLT, FMC, FOXA, GIL, GDDY, HUBG, LHCG, LBTYA, LNC, LUMN, MRO, VAC, MELI, MET, NUS, PTVE, PARR, PYPL, PRI, PRIM, QRVO, RCII, RSG, RKT, RYI, SJI, STN, TRMB, TPC, TWLO, UBER, UGI, UNM, YELL, and ZNGA report.

The bears made a push Tuesday morning but never managed to move the large caps outside of their recent range. Then the bulls mounted a slow, but consistent, rally the rest of the day. This left us well up from the lows and (with the exception of the QQQ) back in the middle of that sideways range. With the way Tuesday ended and the way pre-markets are looking now, it appears the bulls will make the first move today. However, day-to-day chop is still the main characteristic of this market. So, continue to be careful.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. Respect potential support and resistance levels. Stick with the trend (when you have one), but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RHI, SYF, RIG, WETF, WFC, UEC, XOM, LPX, DHI, DISH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Great Earnings Continue

May 4, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about half a percent Monday to start the new month. However, that was it for the large-caps as they ground sideways in a tight range after the open. The QQQ faded the gap and then some before starting its own tight-range sideways grind about 11am. This left us with indecisive candles in the SPY and DIA and a small Bearish Engulfing candle in the QQQ. However, all 3 major indices remained inside the tight range of the last week. On the day, SPY gained 0.21%, DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ lost 0.53%. The VXX fell 3.5% to 38.75 and T2122 climbed back to the edge of overbought territory at 80.65. After having climbed in premarket, 10-year bond yields fell during the day to 1.601% and Oil (WWTI) rose over 1% to $64.44/barrel.

After hours, US announced it will pay a $9 million fine to settle an accounting fraud charge. In other legal news, a trial began in WV with local authorities suing the 3 major drug distributors (MCK, ABC, and CAH) for failing to better monitor distribution of opioids as required by federal law. (The companies shipped 36 million doses to a community of 100,000 over an 8-year period.) Also, the AAPL vs Epic Games trial got underway with opening arguments from both sides on Monday. The trial will greatly impact whether AAPL can continue to prohibit alternatives to the AAPL App Store for devices in the APPL device userbase. Epic is arguing the 30% commission and arbitrary app approval process are wrong. AAPL is arguing it needs control because it does not want to devolve into being like the Android marketplace.

PFE reported beats on both the top and bottom lines this morning. The company said it will file for full (non-emergency) approval of its Covid vaccine by the end of the month. If approved, this would allow the company to market the vaccine directly to consumers. UA also posted beats on both lines and raised guidance for the full year. CVS joined the crowd, also beating on revenue and earnings as testing, vaccinations and prescriptions all outpaced forecast.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,230,992 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 591,514. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 50,665 new cases per day. However, deaths have plateaued again, now at 716 per day. In some good news, for perspective, US new cases and deaths are both less than 20% of their peak values in early January of this year. In addition, 40% of adults and 70% of all seniors are now fully-vaccinated. However, the CDC reports that demand for vaccine has also plummeted 27% and each day tens of thousands of available vaccination appointments are going unused daily in the US.

Globally, the numbers rose to 154,241,017 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,228,632 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 812,341 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,336 new deaths per day. India continues to be the current epicenter of the pandemic with yet another Indian state entering lockdown. This comes as a new tragedy happened Monday, when another hospital ran out of oxygen, causing at least 20 deaths. However, international aid is now starting to arrive (though national logistics is very challenging in the country) and that includes a ramping up of India’s vaccination program which was expanded to everyone over age 18 yesterday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. New Zealand (+1.12%) was an outlier to the upside, with South Korea (+0.64%) and Hong Kong (+0.70%) being more typical of gainers. Taiwan (-1.68%), India (-0.94%), and Japan (-0.83%) paced the losers on the day. In Europe, markets are also mixed so far today. The FTSE (+0.83%) and CAC (+0.75%) are leading the gainers, but the DAX (-0.10%) and a number of the smaller exchanges remain on the red side of flat. Denmark (-0.88%) is an outlier to the downside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat and mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, while the SPY is implying a -0.11% open and the QQQ is implying a -0.35% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mar. Imports/Exports and Mar. Trade Balance (both at 8:30 am), Mar., Factory Orders (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Daly at 1 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AME, APO, ARCB, ARNC, BHC, BERY, BR, BEP, BG, CWH, CTLT, CRL, CQP, LNG, COP, CMI, CVS, D, DD, ETN, EXPD, RACE, BEN, IT, GPN, HSC, HSIC, IDXX, INCY, INGR, KKR, LCII, LDOS, LGIH, LPX, MPC, MLM, NXST, PFE, SEE, SYY, TRI, UA, UAA, VIRT, VSH, VMC, WMG, WLK, XYL, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open. Then, after the close, ATVI, AKAM, ALC, AMCR, AFG, ANDE, ANET, AIZ, BKH, CZR, CTVA, DK, DVN, ENLC, PEAK, HLF, HI, JAZZ, KAR, LYFT, MANT, DOOR, MTCH, MCFE, MCY, PKI, PXD, PAA, PRU, RYAM, SMCI, TMUS, TTEC, VRSK, WU, XLNX, and ZG report.

Markets continue to feel as if the bulls have run out of energy to push higher. However, the bears have no traction either. This leaves us in a tight-range sideways grind. This is a very difficult market to trade as the day-to-day chop crushes traders, even as the indices go nowhere. Even with blowout earnings and generally raised outlooks, the bulls have not been able to run lately. So, be careful on the long side. Still, the trend has not changed direction. We do not have a bearish trend. So, also don’t be too quick to take shorts either. Stuck between the trend and the chop is a tough place to make money.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SHIP, BIG, MDLZ, JNJ, FAST, DHI, NOK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Futures Look to Open May Positive

May 3, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down on Friday. The large-caps then ground sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the QQQ faded the gap and then slowly sold off back to the gap price again. This left us with gap-down Doji in the large-caps and a gap-down Inverted Hammer type candle in the QQQ to end the month. On the day, SPY and QQQ both lost 0.66% and the DIA lost 0.48%. The VXX gained 4% to 40.16 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory back into mid-range at 49.03. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.626% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.34% to $63.49/barrel.

A few tidbits came out of the Berkshire Woodstock annual meeting. Warren Buffett announced a 20% increase in BRK operating profit while announcing the company share buybacks have and will continue. He also said that stock prices are too high and decried Robinhood as being an enabler of the public’s gambling habits. He says that has led to far too many “short-term bets” and has hurt BRK (such as the way short-term option activity in AAPL hurt the BRK position). He also said when he retires, Greg Abel will succeed him as CEO. Meanwhile, Charlie Munger (Buffett’s number two) decried Bitcoin as “disgusting” and a bane to society.

In misc. news, overnight and in pre-market activity, bond prices rose again. The 10-year yield is up to 1.642%. VZ is considering selling the dog entity it created by merging AOL and Yahoo Finance. Finally, over the weekend GOP Senators said an infrastructure deal is possible and the President seemed to embrace that sentiment although the sides are well over $1 trillion apart.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,180,441 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 591,062. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 50,251 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 719 per day. This has led to the lowest weekly aggregate number of deaths so far this year. In great news, new cases have dropped dramatically (17% week-on-week). However, the CDC has reported that vaccinations rates have also plummeted since the JNJ vaccine pause last month and are raising real concern over whether the US will reach herd immunity later than projected or even at all.

Globally, the numbers rose to 153,565,250 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,218,006 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 809,729 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,366 new deaths per day. India has been reporting more than 400,000 new cases per day (one-third of the global new cases) as of the weekend. Foreign aid (especially oxygen and related equipment) has started arriving, but deaths remain at the highs and one state of the country (the one encompassing New Delhi) has announced a 1-week total lockdown.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side with just 3 exchanges staying just on the green side of flat. Taiwan (-1.96%), Hong Kong (-1.28%), and Singapore (-1.04%) led the losses. In Europe, just the opposite is true so far today as markets are mostly green. Russia (-0.76%) is the exception to the rule. The FTSE (+0.12%), DAX (+0.61%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.62% gap, the SPY implying a +0.52% gap, and the QQQ implying a +0.29% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include AMG, CAN, ENBL, EPD, EL, GPRE, ITRI, LDI, ON, and WEC before the open. Then after the close, AWK, AGR, CAR, BWXT, CC, CR, CVI, FANG, FLS, NSP, LEG, MOS, NTR, OGS, QGEN, RBC, REGI, SANM, SCI, RIG, TA, WMB, WWD, and XPO report.

Markets seem poised to start May on a higher open. However, the short-term trend is clearly an indecisive sideways grind for the last couple of weeks. Even with blowout earnings and generally raised outlooks for the coming quarter, the bulls have not been able to run lately. On the other hand, the bears have also been unable to make any headway without bad earnings or a major story to hang their hats on. So, for now, it seems the market is undecided and hard to trade with no trend in place.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day or every week. That is one of the great benefits of trading as a career. Respect potential support and resistance levels, but don’t just assume they will hold either. Predicting is a sucker’s game. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Great Earnings Galore But Futures Down

April 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Thursday on the prior night’s earnings beats from AAPL and FB. Stocks the proceeded to fade the gap and spent the rest of the day working back toward to gap open. This left us with Hanging Man candles in all 3 major indices (white body on DIA and the other two black bodies). However, the SPY was at another all-time high close. On the day, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX was essentially flat at 38.58 and T2122 fell ever so slightly to 91.05. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.636% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.69% to $64.92/barrel. Copper also reached a 10-year high.

After the close AMZN continued the trend for big tech by smashing expectations with a 44% sales increase for the quarter and earnings that beat estimates by 65% ($15.79 vs $9.54 est. per share). The online retail giant also said they forecast no fall-off in the pandemic-driven surge in sales. However, while TWTR did post slight beats on both lines, they rained on the parade somewhat by posting a miss on user numbers and lower than hoped forward guidance as well as not beating as big as the other big tech names.

Early Friday, the executive arm of the EU opened a new antitrust investigation of the AAPL App Store. This one is based on music platform SPOT complaining about the AAPL license agreements. The EU announced that “the mandatory use of Apple’s own in-app purchase mechanism for apps distributed through the store likely violates EU antitrust regulations.” This adds to AAPL’s antitrust problems with Epic Games having filed suit on the same grounds in the US.

Globally, the numbers rose to 151,240,576 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,182,092 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 829,052 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,448 new deaths per day. France announced a 4-step process to end its lockdown with the first step starting on May 19 with a goal of the final lifting happening June 30. Japan reported its highest number of new cases since January as the country tries to prepare for the delayed Olympic games. Following in the steps of PFE, MRNA president said patients using their vaccine will also likely need a booster 9-12mo after completing the second dose. However, in more hopeful news, in India, the first shipments of foreign oxygen-related aid have arrived.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-1.97%) and India (-1.77%) paced the losses. The same story seems to be taking shape in Europe so far today. Moves are generally modest, with the smallest moves coming from two of the big 3 exchanges with the FTSE (-0.17%) and DAX (+0.04%), which is the only green on the continent. The CAC (-0.35%) is closer to typical of all the other exchanges. As of 7:30am, US Futures are also pointing to a gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.49% open, the SPY implying a -0.59% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.75% gap-down open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Mar. PCE Price Index, Q1 Employment Cost Index, and Mar. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ABBV, ALXN, AON, AZN, AVNT, CRI, CHTR, CVX, CLX, CL, XOM, FNMA, GT, HRC, HUN, ITW, IMO, JELD, JCI, LHX, LAZ, LYB, NWL, PSX, PBI, POR, QSR, GWW, and before the open. Then after the close, WES reports.

Despite continued blowout earnings reports from the massive FAANG names, markets seem poised to follow the rest of the world lower on Friday. Maybe this is related to the month-end or weekend news cycle that both are nearly at hand. Regardless, this just reinforces the bulls have had breaking through the recent highs and running free. Yet, the bears still have no shock or major story to hand their hats on. With blowout earnings and increasing forecasts, future inflation seems to be their storyline…and history shows markets rising in infationary times. So, for now, the bears best case would seem to be for a pullback.

Respect those potential support and resistance levels, but don’t just assume they will hold either. Predicting is a sucker’s game. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PM, XLE, AAPL, JPM, MDLZ, JNPR, AA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Get Big Tech Tailwind Ahead of GDP

April 29, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets basically treaded water all day in a tight range. There was a little volatility around the time of the Fed announcement but that quickly faded back to where it was beforehand. It seems like traders were more concerned about the post-market AAPL and FB reports than the foregone conclusion that the Fed would not change rates or their stance. The SPY closed as a Doji again very near all-time highs with the DIA and QQQ putting in small black candles. On the say, SPY gained 0.01%, DIA lost 0.39%, and QQQ lost 0.34%. The VXX was also flat at 38.88 and T2122 remains well into the overbought territory at 92.07. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.611% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.3% to $63.76/barrel.

After the close, FB beat on both the top and bottom line with a 48% rise in revenue but slightly fewer active users than expected. AAPL also announced another blowout quarter with a 54% increase in sales, a 42% profit margin, and in addition authorized a $90 billion share buyback plan. QCOM and F also both announced beats, with QCOM raising guidance on strong smartphone demand. However, F said the global chip shortage and a fire at a Japanese chip supplier will reduce the carmaker’s Q2 production by 50% and also expects that shortage to reduce earnings for the year by about $2.5 billion.

During the afternoon, the Fed raised their outlook for the economy and said inflation will pick up, but they remain unconcerned. However, they did not change rates, reiterated they have no plans to do so and said they will also not stop bond purchases at this time. In the evening, the President spoke before Congress, calling for passage of the Infrastructure plan and unveiling a new $1.8 trillion plan aimed at families, children and students. While neither is likely to pass as proposed, there is no way to look at trillions of dollars of spending that doesn’t consider it fiscal stimulus.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,983,695 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 588,337. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 55,773 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 727 per day. In an ominous sign, many parts of the country are now in an urgent rush to find patients for the vaccine they have to deliver. This has been true across the South for some time, but Philadelphia had to plead for patients Wednesday to avoid throwing away unused PFE vaccine and in Detroit the city has resorted to going door-to-door trying to get vaccine used before it expires. That “two alternate universes” point of reference seems as strong as ever (regardless of which one you reside in).

Globally, the numbers rose to 150,341,231 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,166,947 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 827,154 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,200 new deaths per day. Turkey is starting a national lockdown today amidst a spike in infection rates. In the Philippines, Manilla extended their lockdown through mid-May. However, India remains the center of the pandemic storm with an eighth straight day of over 300,000 reported new cases…reported being the key word. Testing positivity rates are suggesting India may have over 500 million cases at the moment with the majority of hospitals in the country turning away patients for a lack of oxygen, beds, and medical staff.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with South Korea (-0.23%) being the only red on the board. Hong Kong (+0.80%) and Thailand (+0.87%) led the gains on modest moves. In Europe, a similar situation is taking shape. Only the DAX (-0.50%) is in the red with the FTSE (+0.68%) and CAC (+0.43%) being more typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +0.37% open, the SPY implying a +0.68% open, and the QQQ implying a +1.04% gap higher at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q1 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Mar. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and 2 Fed speakers (Quarles at 11 am and Williams at 2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AOS, AGCO, ATI, ADS, AB, MO, AMT, AIT, BAX, BCE, BGCP, BLMN, BMY, BC, CG, CARR, CAT, CBRE, CHD, CTXS, CMS, CFX, CMCSA, COWN, DISH, DPZ, ERJ, EME, EEFT, FMX, FMCC, FCN, GNRC, GPI, HSY, ICE, IP, JHG, KBR, KDP, KHC, LH, LKQ, MDC, MMP, MKL, MA, MCD, MRK, MDP, TIGO, TAP, COOP, NEM, NOK, NOC, NVT, PH, PATK, PBF, PCG, PPC, PRG, RLGY, SPGI, SPGI, SNDR, SAH, SO, STM, SYNH, TROW, TMHC, TFX, TPX, TXT, TMO, VC, WAB, WST, WLTW, and XEL before the open. Then after the close, ACHC, AMZN, ATR, AJC, TEAM, BZH, BIO, BKCC, COLM, DVA, DLR, EMN, ENSG, ERIE, FSLR, FTNT, FTV, FBHS, GILD, GFF, THG, KMPR, KLAC, LPLA, MHK, NIO, RMD, SKYW, SWKS, SWN, TEX, TXRH, TWTR, X, VRTX, WDC, and INT report.

The flood of blowout results, and more suggested spending are giving the bulls a tailwind so far today. However, the GDP number may raise the fear of inflation later this morning. So, beware of volatility, but stay on the right side of the trend. There has been a ton of good news for bulls lately, even if markets remain extremely high (frothy to use Chair Powell’s word). There certainly has not been a shock or strong case for the bears lately for anything but a pullback at best.

As I’ve said before, predicting reversals is a game that few traders play successfully…and none of them do it successfully for long. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect those potential support and resistance levels, but that doesn’t mean assuming they will hold. Just lock in your profits or be prepared to watch closely at those levels. As always, keep taking your goals off the table when you achieve them and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SENS, TLRY, RIDE, NKLA, QS, CRSP, SLV, NUE, VIAC, XLE, AI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Abundant Earnings and Fed News Today

April 28, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets put in another flat small-range day on Tuesday with both large-dap indices printing Doji-like candles. However, that also means stocks remain very near the all-time highs as traders wait on direction from the flood of earnings and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. On the day, SPY lost 0.02%, DIA lost 0.01%, and QQQ lost 0.43%. The VXX also fell 2% to #9.01 and while it backed off a bit, T2122 remains well into the overbought territory at 88.46. 10-year bond yields jumped once again to 1.629% and Oil (WTI) also rose 2% to $63.22/barrel.

After the close, both MSFT and GOOG reported blowout quarters, beating estimates on both lines. MSFT reported the highest revenue growth since 2018 while GOOG reported revenue growth of 34% and also announced a new $50 billion stock buy-back plan. SBUX also reported same-store sales growth back at pre-pandemic levels as it raised its 2021 forecast and reported an earnings beat. The news was not all good for GOOG as two Senators (bi-partisan) on the anti-trust committee demanded information about a call GOOG had held with MTCH executives prior to the MTCH executives testifying (the letter reports GOOG may have attempted to influence another witness’ testimony).

In other stock news, AAPL has now implemented their default blocking of third-party tracking cookies on their devices. Given a reported extremely low adoption rate of “cohort tracking” alternatives, this means only AAPL and GOOG are now the only ones able to offer advertisers the deep tracking consumer data they covet. FB had obviously opposed the AAPL move since it has a huge customer-base it wanted data on to sell to advertisers. However, FB did announce an alternative way of targeting consumers on Tuesday when it introduced new Instagram features designed to match content makers serving specific audiences with specific advertisers. It’s unclear if this will suffice for advertisers or if FB ad revenue will suffer greatly.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,927,091 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 587,384. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 57,024 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 722 per day. The CDC announced new masking guidelines on Tuesday, saying the fully vaccinated people can now hold small outdoor gatherings without masks. President Biden noted that 80% of seniors have had at least one shot, but more importantly, over two-thirds of them are fully vaccinated.

Globally, the numbers rose to 149,436,366 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,151,717 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 826,297 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,028 new deaths per day. India has reported current testing is showing a 50% positivity rate. If this held for the whole population, this could mean as many as 600 million infected people. Regardless of the number, what is known is that the Indian hospital system has collapsed under the flood, turning away hundreds of patients a day in one city alone, with particular shortages of oxygen and breathing apparatuses. In the same region, Pakistan also recorded its highest number of daily deaths and Sri Lanka went into national lockdown amidst another record number of cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, leaning toward the green on mostly modest moves. South Korea (-1.09%) was the outlier with Shanghai (+0.42%), Hong Kong (+0.45%), and Australia (+0.44%) more typical. In Europe, markets were also leaning to the green side as the FTSE (+0.57%), DAX (+0.41%), and CAC (+0.64%) lead the way at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.09% open at this hour, with a flood of earnings reports being mulled or still to come.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Mar. Trade Balance and Mar. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2 pm), Fed Chair Press Conf. (2:30 pm), and President Biden will address a joint session of Congress (9 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AER, APH, ADP, AVY, BA, BSX, BCO, EAT, GIG, CME, CSTM, DAN, DISCA, ETR, EVR, GRMN, GD, HES, HUM, IEX, IPG, MAS, MLCO, MCO, NSC, OSK, OC, PAG, BPOP, PPD, ROK, ROL, R, SNY, SC, SHOP, SLGN, SIRI, SPOT, SWK, TECK, TDY, TEVA, TKR, TNL, VRT, and YUM all report before the open. Then after the close, AFL, ALGN, ALSN, ATUS, AMED, NLY, AR, AAPL, ASGN, ASH, AVB, AVTR, AVT, AXS, BHE, CCS, CHX, CAKE, SMPR, CINF, CNO, FIX, CYH, CLR, EBAY, ECHO, ESI, EQIX, FB, F, GRUB, HOLX, IR, LOGI, MHO, MTH, MEOH, MGM, MOH, MUSA, MYRG, ORLY, OI, OPK, OVV, PSA, QCOM, RJF, RNR, SIGI, NOW, TTEK, TROX, TTMI, URI, VVV, WCN, WELL, and WERN report.

Another boatload of earnings and the Fed announcement are likely to inform market moves on Wednesday. So, we may well have another “wait and see” day of trading until at least mid-afternoon. Beware of volatility as we’ve seen chop recently. While the bulls still have the trend in their favor, they are struggling to break resistance the last few days.

Predicting reversals is a game damn few traders play successfully and none of them do it consistently for a long time. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance, but that does not mean assuming it will hold. Just lock in profits or be prepared to watch at those levels. As always, keep taking your goals off the table when you achieve them and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas Today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Inflation Puts Fed in Focus As Meet Starts

April 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets made a small gained on Monday in a tighter than average trading range. The large-caps printed indecisive candles with the QQQ being the most bullish of the bunch. On the day, SPY gained 0.20%, DIA lost 0.16%, and QQQ gained 0.66%. The VXX fell eight-tenths of a percent to 39.84 and T2122 remained well into overbought territory at 92.41. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.567% and Oil (WTI) fell a third of a percent to $61.92.

Commodity prices are soaring with Corn futures hitting their highest price in at least 7 years Monday and Copper reaching a decade high. In unrelated news, Bloomberg reports oil refineries such as XOM, MRO, VLO, COP are now back to running at 2019 levels as they anticipate a normal summer demand curve and are stockpiling gasoline. In an interesting currency move, Russia sells more than half of its exports in Euro terms rather than in Dollar terms. This includes the bulk of their trade with China. This “de-dollarization” will definitely reduce the impacts of future US sanctions. However, the dollar still reigns supreme (ease of use) globally. So, full Russian conversion to a Euro-based export economy is not expected.

After the close, TSLA posted a beat on both the top and bottom lines. This includes a 74% increase in revenue from a year ago (but only beat by $100 million). LYFT also announced plans to sell its self-driving unit to Japanese carmaker Toyota for $550 million in cash (deal will also reduce LYFT operating expense by $100 million/year).

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,875,045 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 586,611. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 58,300 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 715 per day. The CDC announced Monday that the number of vaccinations done in the US fell for the second straight week, although 59% of Americans have received at least one shot. This is a major concern as the CDC reports surveys show over a quarter of Americans do not intend to get vaccinated and 73% of the unvaccinated would refuse the JNJ shot. Experts say herd immunity will require 70-85% of the population to be vaccinated. Still, Dr. Fauci (NIH) kept an upbeat outlook in his Monday press conference, saying we could reach a turning point in the pandemic within a few weeks…if we can maintain the recent rate of vaccinations.

Globally, the numbers rose to 148,581,460 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,136,635 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 824,434 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,884 new deaths per day. The White House confirmed Monday that the country will share the (unapproved in the US) AZN vaccine stockpile with poorer countries. In other cooperation, many countries have offered oxygen and equipment to India, but much of it will arrive too late for the immediate crisis in New Delhi and Mumbai. Meanwhile, in Europe, the EU has filed a lawsuit against AZN for breaching its contract on deliveries. Finally, Turkey has announced its strictest lockdown to date, but put off the start until Thursday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red on modest moves. Malaysia (-1.03%), and Japan (-0.46%) led the losses while India (+1.16%) and Shenzhen (+0.23%) paced the gains. In Europe, we see a similar picture with only Denmark (+1.39%) showing appreciable gains while the FTSE (-0.13%), DAX (-0.32%), and CAC (-0.15%) are much more typical at this point in the day. In the US, as of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.07% open, the SPY implying at +0.11% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.14% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include MMM, ABB, ADM, ABG, BP, CNC, GLW, CEQP, DTE, EBIX, ECL, LLY, ENTG, FSV, FISV, GE, GPK, HAS, HUBB, IVZ, JBLU, LECO, MMC, NVS, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, ROP, ST, SHW, SYF, TRU, UBS, UPS, AND WM before the open. Then after the close, AMD, GOOGL, AMGN, ACGL, BXP, BYD, CHRW, COF, CHE, CB, EIX, EQR, FFIV, GOOG, ILMN, JNPR, MATX, MXIM, MSFT, MDLZ, MRC, NCR, NOV, OLN, OKE, PFG, RXN, SBUX, SYK, FTI, TER, TX, TFII, V, and YUMC report.

A boatload of earnings and the beginning of the Fed meeting that starts today are likely to drive markets Tuesday. While there are more rumbling on taxes (this time on breaks proposed to be given to lower income Americans), that is just talking points now and not a likely market driver. So, while the bulls have the momentum, we have to watch the resistance above that seemed to put up a fight yesterday.

Stay on the right side of the trend, do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Continue to respect support and resistance, but that does not mean assuming it will hold. (Just lock in profits or be prepared to watch at those levels.) As always, keep taking your goals off the table when you achieve them and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions run away with you. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WKHS, TLRY, FCEL, CGC, SOLO, PLUG, NKLA, SKLZ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

China Inflation and Infrastructure Turn

April 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened mostly flat and then put in a steady rally almost all day. However, a selloff the last 15 minutes showed profit-taking to end the week. Nonetheless, all 3 major averages put in strong white candles and created potential Fig Newton type patterns. On the day, SPY gained 1.08%, DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 1.26%. The VXX started with a 1-for-4 split to open at 41.36, but then sold off almost 4% to close at 40.17 and T2122 rose deeper into the overbought territory at 95.67. 10-year bond yield closed up slightly to 1.56% and Oil (WTI) gained 1% to $62.04/barrel.

US Markets may see China as a forerunner of what is to come in the US. That country has reported record growth in the 1^st quarter with a strong recovery underway. However, Sunday night Bloomberg also reported Chinese April factory inflation is running far ahead of analyst expectations based on surveys of 500 Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises. If US markets see that as an indication of the future for the US, the bulls may have a tough row to hoe.

Speaking of potential causes of future inflation, there was a twist in the Infrastructure plan plot on Sunday. Key Democratic Senator (a party rebel) Manchin praised the GOP $568 billion “counter-proposal” to the Democratic $2.25 trillion plan. However, on the same day, Republican Senator Graham told Fox News that GOP Senators were ready to back as much as $900 billion in a stimulus package. This could be additional evidence that some infrastructure improvement plan will get passed this time.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,824,389 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 586,152. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 57,208 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 724 per day. After the close Friday, the CDC lifted the pause on JNJ vaccine use, which will help with shortages. However, a drop in vaccine demand had already become more than a bit concerning and could become the primary obstacle to herd immunity as early as May according to Dr. Fauci (NIH).

Globally, the numbers rose to 147,874,851 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,124,681 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 818,823 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,742 new deaths per day. The situation is India has become dire as the country broken the global record for new cases for the 5^th straight day. The world has started mobilizing to send oxygen and other aid to that country. However, in Europe, the UK and the Netherlands have further eased restrictions.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Taiwan (+1.57%) and South Korea (+0.99%) led gainers while Shanghai (-0.95%) and Shenzhen (-0.89%) passed the losses. In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean green in modest trading so far today. The FTSE (+0.14%), DAX (-0.07%), and CAC (+0.15%) are indicative of the continent. Only Greece (+1.69%) has moved more than a percent so far today. As of 7:40 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and relatively flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.10% open, the SPY implying a -0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.36% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Mar. Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ACI, CHKP, LII, and OTIS before the open. Then after the close, AMP, AMKR, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CNI, LU, MKSI, NXPI, OMF, PKG, RRC, SBAC, SSNC, TSLA, and UHS report.

Ahead of a big week of earnings, another Fed Meeting, and other major economic news, markets may be a little uncertain this week. The bulls have the longer-term momentum, but the last week was a choppy sideways slog. Looking at it more broadly, we are still very near the highs and still quite extended after the early April run. Fear remains very low, considering where we are and what we’ve seen the last week. So, trade accordingly.

Follow the trend, do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LAZR, VLDR, PLUG, FCEL, UAVS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Supreme Court Limits Watchdog Agencies

April 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on better than expected (lower) Weekly Jobless Claims. However, stocks spent the morning just on the res side of flat. Then about 1pm Bloomberg reported that President Biden is considering a capital gains tax hike on wealthy Americans. That led to an immediate selloff, reaching the lows of the day about 2pm. After that markets ground sideways again into the close. The led to Bearish Harami candles on all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.91%, DIA lost 0.93%, and QQQ lost 1.21%. The VXX gained well over 6% to 10.47 and T2122 fell, but remains inside the overbought territory at 82.69. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.543% and Oil (WTI) rose half a percent to $61.64/barrel.

The Bloomberg report said that the Biden proposal would raise Capital Gains tax to 43.4% for the wealthiest 0.03% of Americans with the rate being 39.6% for those earning more than $1 million per year. In other Washington news, the Senate GOP announced their own $568 billion Infrastructure plan to counter President Biden’s $2.3 trillion package. The plan came in a bit smaller than expected since GOP Senators have been talking with reporters about a $600-$800 billion plan in recent days. However, at least it is something since Senate Republicans have repeatedly killed infrastructure packages in the last couple of years. So, this announcement likely signals that some package will get passed this time. The obvious differences between the GOP and Democratic plans are that the Republic version does not contain money for elderly and disabled, manufacturing industry funds (“green” industries, research, and technology like chipmaking), affordable housing, and also includes about $70 billion less than the Democratic plan for the things that are covered.

In other news, the US Supreme Court has severely limited government agencies (FTC in the specific case) to extract economic relief for consumers or impose sanctions on businesses, even when fraudulent or monopolistic business practices are used. FB had filed a motion in favor of the eventual ruling saying the FTC has no power to force divestiture in its ongoing antitrust case related to their purchase of WhatsApp and Instagram despite findings of monopolistic actions. GOOG did not file in the case, but faces a similar FTC action related to their search and search advertising operations. The major telecom companies and ISPs also will benefit from this ruling.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,669,121 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 584,226. The number of new cases has ticked higher again and are back above the peak of last summer to an average of 64,204 new cases per day. However, deaths are just starting to plateau again, now at 730 per day. Texas A&M University announced on Thursday that they have detected a new variant that shows signs of resistance to the mechanisms of existing vaccines. It also shows sign of being more contagious and causing more severe illness than the earlier variants. The rate of US vaccinations has also dropped with some states now having more supply of vaccine than demand for shots.

Globally, the numbers rose to 145,453,767 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,088,267 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 806,371 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 12,196 new deaths per day. Pakistan called out its army to enforce restrictions and guidelines as the country has run low on oxygen supplies. Neighboring India is supplying hospitals with only two hours’ worth of oxygen at a time as supplies are still critical in the state containing New Delhi. In Germany, the government is pulling the “emergency brake” law and will lockdown most of the country again as of Saturday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned strongly to the green side. Taiwan (+1.19%) and Hong Kong (+1.12%) were the biggest gainers with Thailand (-0.93%) and Japan (-0.57%) leading the losses. However, in Europe, so far this morning markets are red across the board on modest moves. The FTSE (-0.52%), DAX (-0.38%), and CAC (-0.26%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.12% open, the SPY implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.14% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Mfg. and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and Mar. New Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AXP, ALV, HON, KMB, RF, and SLB before the open. There are no major earnings reports after the close.

The bears had their moment as the initial reaction to the Capital Gains tax for the extremely wealthy hit the news. However, the selloff was not dramatic in a broader sense and price remains right in the range of the slight pullback we have seen this week. So, looking at it more broadly, we are still very near the highs and only have seen a relief pullback. Certainly, no new trend has formed yet. Fear remains very low and the market is still extended, but bullish. So, trade accordingly..

Continue to fight the FOMO. Follow the trend, do not predict reversals, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance. Keep taking your profits off the table when you can and maintain your discipline. Stay on the right side of the market trend and follow those trading rules. As we know, consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: KKR, SKLZ, SLV, NKLA, VXX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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