On Friday, markets gapped lower at the open (down 0.54% on the SPY, down 0.49% on the DIA, and down 0.75% in the QQQ), following through on Thursday afternoon’s selloff.  From there, all three major indices bobbed sideways below the open until about 2:15 pm.  At that point, a late-day rally saw the DIA cross the gap and turn green while the SPY and QQQ rallied back up above the open (into the gap) with all three going out near their highs.  This action gave us a gap-down Doji in the QQQ, a gap-down, white-bodied Hammer in the SPY, and a gap-down, white-bodied candle with a small lower wick in the DIA.  All three indices closed below their T-lines and the DIA retested and closed above its 50sma.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the red as Energy (-2.97%) led the way lower and Communications Services (+1.12%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.24%, the DIA was up 0.25%, and QQQ was down 0.71%.  The VXX was flat at 11.67 and T2122 fell a bit more in the midrange to 44.71.  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 3.817% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.76% to $76.32 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a gap lower met with volatile indecision.  This resolved into a bearish push to end the day.  Again, this all happened on slightly less-than-average volume.

In economic news Friday, the January Export Price Index came in far higher than expected at +0.8% (compared to a forecast of -0.2% and the December reading of -3.2%).  Meanwhile, the January Import Price Index came in just as expected at -0.2% (versus a forecast of -0.2% and a December value of -0.1%).   Together, these indicate that the US was passing inflated prices on the rest of the world, while the price of our imported goods fell slightly.  Elsewhere, two Fed speakers made headlines Friday.  Fed Governor Bowman said “I think there’s a long way to go before we reach our 2% inflation objective and I think we’ll have to continue to raise the federal funds rate until we see a lot more progress on that,” while addressing bankers in Nashville.  She also said, “We were seeing some progress in lowering inflation at the end of last year, but some of the data that we’re seeing early this year is not tracking with consistently lowering inflation in a way that I would like to see.”  In a separate event, Richmond Fed President Barkin said the Fed still needs to raise interest rates higher but noted that he prefers to stick with slower, quarter-percent hikes.  Barkin said, “I am not taking as much signal from the data that we’ve gotten recently on the demand side as you might if you start to see it for multiple months”.

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In stock news, Reuters reported Friday that MSFT is already in talks with ad agencies on how it plans to incorporate paid links (ads) in the AI responses generated by the new ChatGPT-enabled Bing (which is already in beta release).  Unnamed sources said that in addition, the AI-generated results will be more prominent (above) traditional search ads.  Then after the close, the US Navy awarded LMT a $2 billion contract for hypersonic missile systems.  Meanwhile, after hours a report circulated saying that TSLA is now considering buying metals (lithium) miner SGML. (SGML spiked in after-hours trade.)  Over the weekend, META took a page out of the Twitter playbook and launched new subscription services for Instagram and FaceBook where a user buys a blue badge to mark them as “verified.”  META is charging more than Twitter has (so far) for their badge at $12 on web and $15 on mobile (compared to Twitter’s $8 and $11 respectively).  In addition to the supposed prestige of having the badge, META is promising greater “visibility and reach” for verified user’s posts, suggesting that their algorithm will treat verified users similar to ad buyers (promoting their posts over those from second-class users).  Elsewhere, over the weekend Fortune reported that an online retailer named Temu (owned by US-listed Chinese online retailer PDD) has become the most downloaded shopping app in the US.  During Q4, the Temu app was installed more than AMZN, WMT, TGT, or any other shopping app.  Finally, UNP said on Monday that it has reached an agreement with two unions and will begin providing 2,100 of its workers with up to four paid sick days per year.

In stock legal and regulatory news, BDX convinced a US appeals court to reinstate three patents related to its medical injection device (Powerport).  Elsewhere, the FDA granted accelerated approval to TVTX for their kidney disease drug IgAN.  At the same time, the FDA also approved the APLS drug Syfovre (and macular degeneration drug).  Meanwhile, a group of US Senators and Congressmen asked that the Surface Transportation Board delay a decision on a proposed merger of CP with KSU until after a Chicago-region impact assessment has been completed.  On Saturday, Reuters reported that US Treasury Dept. sanctions authority has begun an investigation of US-listed, Austrian bank RAIFF over its business related to Russia and whether it is being used to skirt sanctions.  Later on Saturday, the FDA announced that PEP is recalling 300,000 bottles of SBUX chilled Frappuccino drinks after glass chips were found in some bottles.  On Sunday, the NHTSA added another deadly crash to its TSLA probe after a vehicle slammed into a fire truck on a California interstate Saturday, killing the driver, apparently while using the TSLA “Full Self-Driving” feature.  Finally, the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in a case that challenges social media and the Internet as we know it.  The case will determine whether websites and social media companies are liable for everything posted (by the public) on their sites.  META and GOOGL are the most obviously impacted. However, every website will be affected by the ruling on this difficult subject.

In energy news, Friday was another down day (and week) for Natural Gas.  The March front-month Natty contract closed down 4.8% to $2.2750/mmBtu after hitting a 2.5-year low earlier in the session.  With the sole exception of the prior week, the Natty has closed lower every week since the beginning of December.  It has lost more than 65% in the process.  Meanwhile, Oil (WTI) also ended Friday down 4.2% on the week.  Oil analysts say that “rate hike jitters” have returned with vengeance. In addition, the oil traders are now also fearing the legally-mandated sale of 26 million more barrels of oil from the US Strategic Reserve hitting the market in the coming weeks/months.  Finally, Bloomberg reported Friday that a record 311 mid-range tanker ships have recently been seen sailing without cargo or listed destination near Russia.  (This is compared to an average of 14 such ships at any given time in the prior year.)  The shift implies a new “shadow fleet” has been formed to help Russia avoid sanctions and keep shipping hundreds of thousands of barrels of diesel and gasoline per day.  In addition, the removal of those ships from the global market has caused the cost of fuel tankers to skyrocket for regular routes such as those feeding Europe and the US East Coast.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves.  Hong Kong (-1.71%), Thailand (+0.66%), and Shanghai (+0.49%) were the exception to that rule with all other exchanges in the region moving only fractionally in either direction.  In Europe, we see the bourses leaning to the red side at midday.  The FTSE (-0.20%), DAX (-0.43%), and CAC (-0.35%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  However, Russia (+1.51%) is an outlier as they responded to President Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine by dropping out of a nuclear arms treaty and vowing to keep pushing in their war of conquest against Ukraine.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.89% open, the SPY is implying a -0.84% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking again to 3.882% and Oil (WTI) is up just under 1% to $77.06/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday are limited to Mfg. PMI, S&P Global PMI, and Services PMI (all three at 9:45 am), and January Existing Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARNC, CEQP, DAN, ELAN, EXPD, FLR, HD, HUN, IR, JBT, JELD, LGIH, LECO, LPX, MDT, MIDD, TAP, NMM, PEG, TECK, TPH, TRN, WMT, WLK, and WLKP before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ALIT, AGR, BXC, BCC, CZR, CWH, CHK, COIN, CSGP, CW, CVI, FANG, ESI, EQX, EXAS, FLS, GFL, IAA, IOSP, KEYS, LZB, MTDR, PANW, PSA, O, SBAC, TOL, RIG, UNVR, and WSC report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday the FOMC Minutes are released, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report and Fed member Williams speaks.  On Thursday, we get Q4 GSP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  Finally, on Friday, the January PCE Price Index, January Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and January New Home Sales are reported.

In terms of earnings later in the week, on Wednesday, we hear from ALLE, BIDU, BLCO, BCO, CRL, CSTM, CRVN, GRMN, GIL, IBP, IQ, NI, OSTK, PRG, SBGI, TRGP, TJX, TNL, UTHR, VRT, WWW, ATUS, ANSS, APA, BTG, CPE, CAKE, CHRD, CDE, FIX, CTRA, CCRN, DVA, EBAY, ETSY, EXR, GSM, FNF, ICLR, LBTYA, VAC, DOOR, MATV, MOS, MYRG, NTAP, NVDA, OPAD, OGS, OUT, PAGS, PARR, PK, PDCE, PXD, PR, RXT, RIO, RYI, SNBR, SM, STN, SUI, RUN, TDOC, VMI, and WES.  Then Thursday, BABA, AMR, AEP, AMT, HOUS, AMBP, AAWW, BBWI, BHC, CBRE, CQP, LNG, COMM, DPZ, DTE, EME, AG, FCN, GPC, GFI, IRM, KDP, LKQ, MRNA, MODV, NTES, NEM, NICE, NOMD, OPCH, PZZA, PCG, PRMW, PWR, RCII, SPTN, SRCL, FTI, TFX, BLD, TAC, VIPS, W, YETI, ACCO, ATSG, ACA, ADSK, BALY, BECN, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, CVNA, CE, CGAU, CENX, CHE, CWK, EIX, ERIE, FTCH, FND, INTU, LYV, MTZ, MELI, OII, ZEUS, OPEN, PBA, PRI, RHP, SEM, SWN, VICI, WBD, and INT report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from CM, GTLS, CNK, EOG, EVRG, FMX, FYBR, GTN, DINO, IEP, LAMR, and CRC.

So far this morning, WMT, MDT, TAP, DDS, IR, JELD, TPH, ELAN, and MIDD have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HD, ARNC, CEQP, LPX, and JBT have all reported misses on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, HUN and DAN both beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, WLK, FLR, and LGIH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MDT raised forward guidance,  However, WMT, HD, TAP, DAN, TPH, ELAN, and TRN all lowered their own forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the bears are following through to the downside again this morning. Perhaps this is a reaction to HD’s mixed report and both WMT and HD lowering guidance (HD also raised the wages of its hourly workers to the tune of $1 billion). I’m sure that a renewed lack of certainty about the Fed’s March rate action is not helping. (As of this morning, 79% of the Fed Futures bets are on a quarter-percent hike while 21% are looking for a half-percent hike in March.) The DIA is retesting its 50sma at the moment and it looks like the SPY may be headed toward the same retest soon. All three major indices are below their T-lines and the short-term trends are bearish. However, all three also have potential support levels not far below. Continue to be cautious about intraday reversals as we have seen recently.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a big gap lower at the open Thursday (down 1.27% in the SPY, down 0.91% in the DIA, and down 1.58% in the QQQ).  However, within half of an hour, this began turning into a bear trap as a long, slow, steady rally started at 10 am.  This rally had faded most of the gap by 12:50 pm and, from there, the indices ground sideways in a tight range until 2:45 pm.  At that point, Fed member Bullard spoke and put a half percent hike in March back on the table.  The bears immediately stepped in to start a strong selloff that has lasted right into the close, taking us out on the lows.  This action gave us gap-down, black, Inverted Hammers with all three major indices crossing back below their T-line (8ema) after a retest.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red as Technology (-1.97%) led the way lower and Communications Services (-0.20%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 1.38%, the DIA was down 1.25%, and QQQ was down 1.88%.  The VXX has gained 5.06% to 11.63 and T2122 fell a bit more in the midrange to 57.63.  10-year bond yields spiked again, this time to 3.869% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.57% to $78.14 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a gap lower met with volatile indecision.  This resolved into a bearish push to end the day.  Again, this all happened on slightly less-than-average volume.

In economic news, the big story on Thursday was a much hotter than expected Jan. PPI number, which came in at +0.7% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% and far worse than the December reading of -0.2%).  At the same time, January Building Permits came in slightly lower than expected at 1.339 million (versus the forecast of 1.350 million but better than the December number of 1.337 million).  January Housing Starts also came in below what was predicted at 1.309 million (compared to the forecast of 1.360 million and the December value of 1.371 million).  On the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, they were better than expected at 194k (versus the forecast of 200k and also slightly better than last week’s 195k).  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in much worse than expected at -24.3 (compared to a forecast of -7.4 and also much worse than the January value of -8.9).  In addition to those reports, we also heard from two Fed non-voting officials.  Cleveland Fed President Mester said (at the February 1 meeting, before the two recent hot inflation numbers) “I saw a compelling economic case for a 50-basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%.”  (In other words, she did not think the voters were being aggressive enough.)  Later on, St. Louis Fed President Bullard “Further Federal Reserve rate increases are needed to lock in disinflation.”  He kept the idea of a 50-basis-point hike on the table.  However, uncharacteristically for the uber-hawk Bullard, he also said “in broad macro terms it probably does not make too much difference (how fast the Fed moves from here).”

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In stock news, an MS survey of the 80 main parts suppliers to the aerospace industry came out Thursday.  The report showed that those suppliers likely cannot support the production hikes recently announced by both BA and EADSY (Airbus).  Elsewhere, NSC took heavy public and media heat on Thursday for failing to show up at a town hall held related to the NSC train derailment and chemical spill in Eastern Ohio.  (The NSC representatives said they did not attend because they feared for their safety in the face of nearly 5,000 local residents.)  Meanwhile, in good economic news, GM CEO Barra told a conference Thursday that her company is seeing no sign of any slowing demand for cars.  She also said, “we still have very good confidence in the market.”  Then, after the close, BP announced it is acquiring TA for $1.3 billion at a price of $86/share. 

In stock legal and regulatory news, the NHTSA announced TSLA is recalling 363,000 cars due to its “Full Self Driving” system.  In response, TSLA CEO Musk took to Twitter to complain the term “recall” to describe the situation was “anachronistic and just flat wrong.”  Meanwhile, a judge from the NLRB found that XOM had been advised by its negotiators that it would need to lock out refinery workers in Texas in order to achieve its goal of taking away seniority-based job protections.  The judge had previously ruled the company needed to pay millions in back pay to the 650 workers it locked out for 10 months in 2021.  Elsewhere, in a Delaware court, FOX argued Thursday that Dominion Voting Systems cannot prove its $1.6 billion in defamation damages.  This filing came in response to Dominion’s request for a summary judgment in their favor based on communications and depositions by FOX executives and on-air talent.  Later, after the close, it was announced that ALK lost a $160 trademark dispute with Virgin Airlines.  ALK intends to appeal the judge’s ruling.

In energy news, the EIA Natural Gas Report showed that inventories are 17% higher than they were a year ago.  This came after a smaller-than-expected draw for the week of 100 billion cubic feet (less than half of the prior week’s consumption).  The March front-month Natty contract settled down 3.3% to $2.3890/mmBtu.  In other Natural Gas news, after the close, Reuters reported at least three new US LNG export plants are expected to be approved by banks (financiers) this year.  The most likely candidates are projects from SRE, ET, and NEXT.  SRE said in January it has already sold all of the capacity of the new plant.  NEXT has signed deals for 64% of its new project’s capacity (with pending deals that would take that number to 87%).  ET hasn’t disclosed how much of its new plant capacity has been sold.  However, it is worth noting that even if approved today, it can take up to 4 years to build and get regulatory approval to bring a new LNG production and export terminal online.

After the close, AMAT, ED, AMN, DASH, ATR, RDFN, AL, DBX, DKNG, BFAM, and FBIN all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TDS, USM, AEM, and COLD all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DLR, AEL, TXRH, MERC, and GLOB all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, BIO and IAG reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMN, COLD, RDFN, DBX, and HUBS all raised their forward guidance.  However, DLR, BFAM, and FBIN lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only Singapore (+0.52%) managed to stay green as Shenzhen (-1.61%), Hong Kong (-1.28%), and South Korea (-0.98%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a more mixed picture but the bourses are still leaning to the downside at midday.  The FTSE (-0.26%), DAX (-0.94%), and CAC (-0.65%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade with only Russia (+0.56%) and Greece (+0.64%) appreciably in the green.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.49% open, the SPY is implying a -0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.90% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 3.875% and Oil (WTI) is plunging, now down 3.5% to $75.71/barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL before the opening bell.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close.  

So far this morning, DE, AN, NWG, MD, and CRBG have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CNP and ACDVF missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ASIX reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  (PPL and AXL report later in the morning.)  It is worth noting that DE raised its forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, American and Chinese officials (perhaps including Sec. of State Blinken) will be meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that starts today. Analysts believe this will smooth over the relations and let the two sides set ground rules for surveillance overflights which have always occurred but then recently became a hyped story due to the Chinese Balloon a couple of weeks back. On the opposite side of the China topic, the country’s most influential financier (leading funder of tech companies) Bao Fan has disappeared and this is unnerving Chinese business leaders. It raises concerns on whether President Xi Jingping’s crackdown of private business has finished (as had been thought once he was elected to a third term). The end result is a bit of pessimism related to post-COVID recovery in China amidst fear of making headlines with new projects or of becoming too successful.

With that background, it looks like the bears are following through on what I’ll call the “Bullard Bear Turn” from yesterday afternoon. It is unlikely that Import/Export Prices change that direction. However, we did have some generally good earnings, including a “beat and raise” by DE this morning. So, there is a chance for a premarket reversal. All three major indices are now below their T-line (8ema), retesting their 17ema, and DIA is back down retesting its 50sma in the premarket action. Continue to be cautious about intraday reversals as we have seen the last few days. It would not take much for the bulls to realize Mester and Bullard are not voters this year and all the voters that have spoken continue to imply a quarter-point hike is the correct policy for the FOMC. Finally, remember its Friday…payday…ahead of a three-day weekend. So, take some profits and prepare for the long weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets gapped lower at the open (down 0.55% in the SPY, down 0.46% in the DIA, and down 0.55% in the QQQ).  After a volatile first half hour, which saw the QQQ recross the gap twice, all three major averages settled down into a slow, protracted rally until 2:20 pm.  The next hour saw a modest pullback.  However, a strong rally the last 30 minutes of the day took all three major indices out on their highs.  This action gave us white-bodied, gap-down Marubozu-type candles in all three indices.  They all held above their T-lines (8ema) and the QQQ is starting to look like a J-hook in the making.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green as Technology (+1.29%) led the way higher and Energy (-1.21%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 0.34%, the DIA was up 0.14%, and QQQ was up 0.77%.  The VXX lost 2% to 11.07 and T2122 fell just a bit and remains just outside of the overbought territory at 77.22.  10-year bond yields spiked again, this time to 3.795% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.59% to $78.59 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a bear trap open that turned into a slow, steady rally the rest of the day.  Overall, the trend remains bullish and volume remains low.

In economic news, the New York Fed Empire State Mfg. Index came in better than expected at -5.80 (compared to a forecast of -18.00 and a January reading of -32.90).  Meanwhile, January Retail Sales also beat expectations, coming in at +3.0% (versus the forecast of +1.8% and the December value of -1.1%).  At the same time, January Industrial Production came in worst than expected at dead flat (compared to the forecast of +0.5% but still better than the December reading of -1.0%).  December Business Inventories reported as expected at +0.3% (right on the forecast and matching the reading from November).  However, December Retail Inventories grew more than expected at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and November reading of -0.3%) Later, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report was even worse than had been signaled by the Tuesday API report.  EIA showed an inventory build of 16.283 million barrels of crude (compared to a forecasted increase of just 1.166 million barrels and worse than the prior week’s 2.423-million-barrel build).

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In stock news, the CFO of F told a conference that they identified ways to improve its cost by over $2.5 billion in 2023 through better management of production schedules as well as F expecting a drop in commodity prices. In other F news, the company said its F-150 Lightning production will remain halted through at least next week as they continue investigating “battery issues.”  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the CEO of TX is considering northern Mexico for the location of a new $2.2 billion steel plant.  At the same time, TSLA CEO Elon Musk said he will unveil the third part of his “Master Plan” for the company on March 1.  This will include bold goals for the growth of the electric car company.  Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal reported that BLCO is set to name a new CEO (Brent Saunders, who was also previously BLCO CEO) as of March 6.  And finally, STLA announced a recall of 340,000 diesel Dodge Ram pickup trucks over electrical connector failures following six fires.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the US Dept. of Justice told a Delaware court that the US government should face a patent lawsuit over COVID-19 rather than MRNA.  ABUS had filed the lawsuit against MRNA for patent infringement.  Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Justice Department has sped up its investigation into AAPL antitrust complaints.  Elsewhere, the EPA set a new soot pollution rule and Reuters reports the KMI and BRKA (for subsidiary PacifiCorp) both sent letters to the EPA warning of the costs they would incur complying.  At the same time, the NTSB announced it is opening an investigation into a runway incursion in Honolulu Hawaii where a UAL 777 crossed a runway as a Cessna 208B was landing.  Finally, after hours, FDA advisors unanimously voted in favor of allowing the EBS anti-overdose drug Narcan to be sold over the counter nationwide.  The FDA is expected to release its final decision on March 29, but it almost always follows unanimous recommendations from the advisory panel.

In energy news, as reported above, oil prices closed down a little despite a massive oil inventory build.  This EIA report was the fourth largest oil inventory build ever reported and almost 10 times the forecasted inventory increase.  In addition, the US Dollar also climbed to a new 6-week high.  So, the disconnect between WTI prices and the news is perplexing.  In related news, US refineries are running at 86% of capacity when they would normally be over 90%.  As a result, US gasoline inventories rose 2.317 million barrels which was not quite twice the 1.543 million barrels forecasted.  However, distillate (diesel and heating oil) stockpiles fell for the first time in five weeks, dropping 1.285 million barrels compared to an expected build of 0.447 million barrels.

After the close, CSCO, SHOP, RSG, AR, EQIX, WCN, AEE, RUSHA, WELL, HST, AIG, AWK, ROKU, TWLO, ALSN, ROL, INVH, NEX, CPA, KGC, QDEL, RGLD, Z, SPWR, and SGEN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, CYH, CF, MRO, ALB, AMED, NUS, SUM, TNET, and RNG all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EQT, SNPS, NTR, and AJRD all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ET, REZI, and TROX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CSCO, RSG, EQIX, WCN, and ALSN all raised their forward guidance.  However, NTR, WELL, HST, NUS, AMED, and SGEN all lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green.  Shenzhen (-1.30%), Shanghai (-0.96%), and Malaysia (-0.26%) were the only red. Meanwhile, South Korea (+1.96%), Hong Kong (+0.84%), and Australia (+0.79%) led the larger group of exchanges to the upside.  In Europe, with the exceptions of Greece (-0.18%) and Switzerland (-0.16%) the rest of the region is green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.46%), and CAC (+0.97%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a slightly red start to the day ahead of data.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.33% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 3.795% and Oil (WTI) is also flat at $78.68/barrel in early trading.  

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include January Building Permits, January PPI, January Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), and a couple Fed speakers (Mester at 8:45 am, Bullard at 1:30 pm, and Mester again at 6 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARCH, BLMN, CVE, CEG, CROX, CNB, ETR, EPAM, FOCS, GGR, GVA, HAS, HSIC, H KBR, KELYA, LH, NSRGY, NGD, NMRK, DNOW, NRG, OGN, PARA, PBF, POOL, POR, RCM, RS, STNG, SO, SCL, SYNH, TOST, USFD, VC, VNT, VMC, WSO, WST, WE, and ZBRA before the opening bell.  Then after the close, AEM, AL, AEL, COLD, AMN, AMAT, ATR, BIO, BFAM, ED, CLR, DASH, DKNG, DBX, FBIN, GLOB, IAG, TDS, TXRH, USM, and VALE report.   

In economic news later this week, on Friday, January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index are reported.  In terms of earnings later in the week, on Friday, ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL report.

So far this morning, SO, RS, HSIC, ETR, ZBRA, SYNH, EPAM, H, ARCH, VNT, GVA, POR, CROX, DNOW, and DDOG have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EADSY, REPYY, USFD, LH, KBR, HAS, BLMN, WST, and SCL have all reported missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, CVE, KELYA, VC, TOST, RCM, STNG, CEG, and PARA all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, VMC, OGN, POOL, DNB, and WE all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that HSIC, RS, SYNH, BLMN, VC, GVA, and CROX all raised their forward guidance.  However, HAS, ZBRA, EPAM, and WE all lowered forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, ASML (Dutch, chip fab lithography leader) reported that a China-based employee stole data from one of its internal software systems used to store technical information about chip-making machinery.  This is the second breach of ASML linked to China in the last year and comes very shortly after ASML agreed to the announcement of President Biden’s ban on selling chip-making technologies to China.  TSLA fired dozens of workers at its Buffalo NY plant one day after workers at the facility they plan to unionize.  The Workers United union has filed a complaint with the NLRB over the obvious retaliation and effort to discourage organizing.

With that background, it looks like markets are flat to modestly lower in pre-open trading. However, all three major indices remain above their T-line (8ema) in an uptrend (although the DIA certainly be called more of a consolidation than a bullish trend). So, apparently, traders are waiting on more clues from the 8:30 am data dump before pushing hard in either direction. We do have generally good earnings as a tailwind, especially from CSCO last night. However, the PPI, Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed reports are likely to call the tune early. Beware of volatility early regardless of which way the post-data, premarket knee-jerk goes. The good news is that the volatility around PPI is likely to be less than that which surrounded CPI. Nonetheless, be cautious and remember that in the long run, your fortune will not be made in the first 30 minutes of the trading day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down modestly after the CPI report.  The SPY gapped 0.31% lower, DIA gapped down 0.29%, and QQQ gapped down 0.51%.  However, that was just the start of the all-day whipsaw as the bulls immediately stepped in and rallied all three up to more than fade the gap, reaching the highs of the day at 10:15 am.  Then the bears reversed the process driving prices back to new lows by noon.  At that point, the bulls took us back up in a slower rally until 1:20 pm when we started a sideways grind.  This action gave us indecisive candles (Doji or Spinning Top candles) in both of the large-cap indices and a larger body, but still very indecisive candle in the QQQ.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green as Technology (+0.84%) led the way higher and Consumer Defensive (-0.59%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.05%, the DIA was down 0.41%, and QQQ was up 0.74%.  The VXX lost 3.34% to 11.30 and T2122 fell just a bit and remains just outside of the overbought territory at 77.05.  10-year bond yields spiked to 3.751% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.27% to $79.12 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a massive whipsaw that fizzled into indecision in the market. All 3 major indices held above their T-lines (8ema) and the overall trend is bullish on just under average volume.

In economic news, the big news of the day was the January CPI which came in higher than expected (but also lower than December) at 5.6% (compared to the forecast of 5.5% and the December value of 5.7%).  This resulted in a knee-jerk gap lower in the market that was immediately faded and devolved into a volatile and indecisive day.  After the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a huge, unexpected build in oil inventories.  The report showed a 10.507-million-barrel build (versus the forecast of a 0.321-million-barrel build and last week’s 2.184-million-barrel drawdown).  In Fed news, Lael Brainard resigned as the Vice-Chair of the Fed after President Biden named her to head his Economic Advisors.  Meanwhile, NY Fed President Williams told reporters that ending 2023 with the benchmark rate between 5.00% and 5.50% “seems to be the right kind of framing.”  At the same time, Dallas Fed President Logan told a university audience, “We must be prepared to continue rate increases for a longer period than previously anticipated (if warranted).”  However, Richmond Fed President Barkin told Bloomberg “It’s about as expected” (referring to the CPI data) and that “Inflation is normalizing but it’s coming down slowly”.  Finally, Philly Fed President Harker said the CPI data did not change his view that the policy rate will have to rise over 5%, but that the Fed was “likely close” (to reaching a sufficiently high enough level to pause).

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In stock news, KO said Tuesday that it will push ahead with price hikes in 2023 despite the price-increase halt called by poorer-performing arch-rival PEP.  Elsewhere, QSR (owner of Burger King among other chains) named current COO Kuboza to take over as CEO on March 1.  Later in the morning, F announced that it had halted production and shipping of its electric F-150 Lightning over what the company called “a potential battery issue.”  Meanwhile, Air India announced a massive (record) order for 470 new jets (plus another 25 Airbus jets to be leased).  The deal includes 220 planes from BA and 250 planes from EADSY (Airbus).  The BA portion of the order includes 190 737 MAX, 20 787 Dreamliners, and 10 777X (mini-jumbos).  Meanwhile, TSLA employees in upstate NY announced in a letter to management their intention to form a union.  After the close, an SEC 13F filing disclosed that BRKA had increased its holdings of AAPL by over $3 billion in Q4 while it significantly cut its holdings of BK (by 60%) and sold off almost half of its ATVI holdings.  BRKA also slashed its holdings of TSM in an odd “trader-like” move since Buffett had only held TSM for a few months.

In stock legal and regulatory news, XOM told a judge that a 10-month lockout of 650 union workers from one of their refineries was not intended to target union employees and was, instead, a move taken to reduce costs and improve profits. (The case is an appeal of an NRLB ruling calling for XOM to compensate the employees for the “illegal lockout” last year after finding the lockout happened after the union notified the company of a potential strike later in the year.)  Elsewhere, a US Bankruptcy judge has indicated his intention to dismiss the JNJ talc unit bankruptcy that had been filed in an attempt to shield the parent company from nearly 40,000 lawsuits claiming JNJ talc caused cancer.  After the close, the National Transportation Safety Board announced it was opening an investigation into the Dec. 18 incident when a BA 777 operated by UAL sharply dropped 2,200 feet to just 775 feet before recovering.

After the close, ANDE, GXO, ABNB, HLF, SCI, AKAM, WIRE, and CRK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, MCY, ENLC, and CLW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CNDT and GDDY missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, DVN and WFG missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABNB raised its forward guidance while CNDT and GDDY both lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside with only India (+0.48%) and Malaysia (+0.28%) in the green.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-1.53%), Hong Kong (-1.43%), and Taiwan (-1.42%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape at midday.  Russia (-1.35%), Greece (-1.18%), and Finland (-0.53%) are the only appreciable red while the FTSE (+0.15%), DAX (+0.58%), and especially the CAC (+1.42%) lead the rest of the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a start to the day just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.16% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.17% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down slightly to 3.751% and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent to $78.55/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index and January Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), January Industrial Production (9:15 am), December Business Inventories and, December Retail Inventories (both at 10 am), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (at 10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADI, AVNT, GOLD, BIIB, CHEF, FIS, GNRC, ICL, KHC, LAD, MLM, OC, PSN, RPRX, RBLX, R, SABR, SITE, SAH, SUN, TMHC, TTD, WAB, and WAT before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ALB, ALSN, AMED, AEE, AIG, AWK, AR, CF, CSCO, SYH, CPA, ET, EQT, EQIX, HST, INVH, KGC, MRO, NEX, NUS, NTR, QDEL, RSG, REZI, RNG, ROKU, ROL, RGLD, RUSHA, SGEN, SHOP, SUM, SPWR, SNPS, TNET, TROX, TWLO, WCN, WELL, and Z report.   

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get January Building Permits, January PPI, January Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and a couple of Fed speakers (Mester, Bullard, and Mester again).  Finally, on Friday, January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings later in the week, on Thursday, we hear from ARCH, BLMN, CVE, CEG, CROX, CNB, ETR, EPAM, FOCS, GGR, GVA, HAS, HSIC, H KBR, KELYA, LH, NSRGY, NGD, NMRK, DNOW, NRG, OGN, PARA, PBF, POOL, POR, RCM, RS, STNG, SO, SCL, SYNH, TOST, USFD, VC, VNT, VMC, WSO, WST, WE, ZBRA, AEM, AL, AEL, COLD, AMN, AMAT, ATR, BIO, BFAM, ED, CLR, DASH, DKNG, DBX, FBIN, GLOB, IAG, TDS, TXRH, USM, and VALE.  Finally, on Friday, ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL report.

So far this morning, KHC, BIIB, ADI, TMHC, OC, WAB, ICL, AVNT, WAT, and CHEF have all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADRNY, GOLD, SAH, MLM, GNRC, RPRX, and TTD all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SUN and PSN both beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. Unfortunately, LAD and SITE reported misses to both the top and bottom lines.  (R and RBLX report later this morning.) It’s worth noting that ADI, TMHC, AVNT, and CHEF all raised forward guidance.  However, MLM lowered its forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, TSLA has agreed to open 7,500 of its charging stations in the US to electric vehicles from other car makers.  This move was necessary for TSLA to continue qualifying for certain government incentives. Elsewhere, GS announced it is dropping plans for a branded credit card as it takes another step further away from consumer banking as part of its strategic reorganization.  Finally, US mortgage rates rose to 6.39% (from 6.18%) for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan.  This spike had the expected effect on mortgage applications as overall volume fell 7.7%.  (Including a 13% fall in refinance applications and a 6% fall in new home purchase applications.)

With that background, it looks like markets are looking to open very modestly lower (at least before the data dump this morning), while holding above the T-line (8ema) in all three major indices. However, the trend in all three remains bullish with resistance not too far above in the SPY and DIA as well as to a lesser extent in the QQQ. The volatility should not be as bad as yesterday’s CPI-induced whipsaw. However, be cautious regardless.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, stocks gapped very modestly higher (up 0.16% in the SPY, up 0.05% in the DIA, and up 0.45% in the QQQ) at the open.  Then a slow, but steady rally took over until 12:45 pm.  From that point, all three major indices ground sideways with the QQQ even having a slightly bearish trend to that grind for the rest of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with small upper wicks.  (QQQ also had a lower wick.)  All three major indices have crossed back above their T-line (8ema) and both large-cap indices are also at least retesting a resistance level.  Meanwhile, the QQQ is retesting the uptrend level it failed last Thursday.  This all happened on a very much lower-than-average volume.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green as Consumer Cyclical (+1.51%) led the way higher and Energy (-0.020%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 1.18%, the DIA was up 1.12%, and QQQ was up 1.60%.  The VXX lost almost 4% to 11.69 and T2122 rose but remains just outside of the overbought territory at 77.27.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.705% and Oil (WTI) is a half of a percent to $79.25 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw the bulls in charge all morning and then a dead market most of the afternoon.  This just seems like trader’s waiting on the CPI data Tuesday to give a clue about what the Fed may do in March.

In Fed news, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman spoke Monday.  She said “I expect we’ll continue to increase the federal funds rate because we have to bring inflation back down to our 2% goal…”  Bowman went on to say that a very strong labor market alongside moderating inflation means a “soft landing” remains possible.  In other Fed news, the NY Fed announced that a January survey of consumers shows the biggest monthly drop in “wage growth” (income growth) expectations in 10 years.  The expected wage growth fell 1.3% to +3.3% for the year as of January.

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In stock news, early Monday TWLO announced another round of layoffs, eliminating about 17% of its workforce and closing some offices.  In other layoff news, UPS said Monday that it will join rival FDX is looking to reduce headcount in the areas of the US where demand is down.  This comes ahead of UPS negotiations with the Teamster union (contract expiring July 31).  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the recent spate of big tech layoffs is a boon for farm equipment makers who are snapping up hundreds of tech workers.  Specifically, the article mentioned DE, CAT, and CNHI as hiring hundreds of engineers each from the pool of former employees from the likes of AMZN, MSFT, and META.  Elsewhere, ALC agreed to pay JNJ $199 million to settle an intellectual property suit related to laser eye-surgery devices.  F announced that they will recognize the UAW at the new $3.5 billion battery plant in Marshall MI (reported here last week).  This means that if a majority of workers at that facility just sign a card supporting a union, then the UAW will represent all workers without the need for formal votes.   Finally, AMZN announced that it has successfully tested its “Zoox” robotaxis using employees as passengers on public roads between two AMZN facilities in Foster City, CA.  The milestone moves the project closer to publicly available self-driving cars as well as competing with GOOGL’s “Waymo” robotaxi project. 

In energy news, after hours Monday, the Biden Administration said that the government is planning to sell another 26 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Reserve.  The White House says they do not want to do so now that oil prices have stabilized.  However, a budget mandate enacted in 2015 (pertaining to the current fiscal year) mandates the sale of 26 million barrels this year.  The Energy Dept. has sought to stop these sales in an effort to begin refilling the reserve.  However, without new Congressional action, the sale is required by law. After this sale, the US reserve would drop to about 345 million barrels.

After the close, CAR, ACGL, IAC, ANET, CDNS, SEDG, and PLTR all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ES, FE, and AMKR beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  On the other side, MRC missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, ASTL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ANET, CDNS, and SEDG all raised their forward guidance.  However, AMKR, JHX, and PLTR lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves.  Thailand (-0.73%) paced the losses while India (+0.89%), Japan (+0.64%), and South Korea (+0.50%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning toward the green side at midday with the notable exception of Russia (-1.27%).  The FTSE (+0.40%), DAX (+0.42%), and CAC (+0.50%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  AS of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modest green start to the day (ahead of CPI data). The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.28% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.43% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.69% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.55% to $78.90/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include January CPI (8:30 am) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report (4:30 pm).  We also get a couple of Fed speakers (Harker at 11:30 am and Williams at 2:05 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CAE, CLF, KO, ECL, ENTG, EXC, FELE, GTX, GEO, GFS, HRI, HWM, LCII, LDOS, MAR, BTU, PKI, QSR, TRU, WCC, and ZTS before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ABNB, AKAM, ANDE, CLW, CRK, CNDT, DVN, WIRE, ENLC, GDDY, GXO, HLF, MCY, NU, SCI, SU, TX, and WFG report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index, January Retail Sales, January Industrial Production, December Business Inventories, December Retail Inventories, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get January Building Permits, January PPI, January Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and a couple of Fed speakers (Mester, Bullard, and Mester).  Finally, on Friday, January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings later in the week, on Wednesday, ADI, AVNT, GOLD, BIIB, CHEF, FIS, GNRC, ICL, KHC, LAD, MLM, OC, PSN, RPRX, RBLX, R, SABR, SITE, SAH, SUN, TMHC, TTD, WAB, WAT, ALB, ALSN, AMED, AEE, AIG, AWK, AR, CF, CSCO, SYH, CPA, ET, EQT, EQIX, HST, INVH, KGC, MRO, NEX, NUS, NTR, QDEL, RSG, REZI, RNG, ROKU, ROL, RGLD, RUSHA, SGEN, SHOP, SUM, SPWR, SNPS, TNET, TROX, TWLO, WCN, WELL, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from ARCH, BLMN, CVE, CEG, CROX, CNB, ETR, EPAM, FOCS, GGR, GVA, HAS, HSIC, H KBR, KELYA, LH, NSRGY, NGD, NMRK, DNOW, NRG, OGN, PARA, PBF, POOL, POR, RCM, RS, STNG, SO, SCL, SYNH, TOST, USFD, VC, VNT, VMC, WSO, WST, WE, ZBRA, AEM, AL, AEL, COLD, AMN, AMAT, ATR, BIO, BFAM, ED, CLR, DASH, DKNG, DBX, FBIN, GLOB, IAG, TDS, TXRH, USM, and VALE.  Finally, on Friday, ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL report.

So far this morning, EXC, KO, WCC, MAR, LDOS, ZTS, QSR, HWM, GFS, HE, ENTG, and GEO all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CLF, TRP, LCII, and HRI all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, PKI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, GTX and TRU both missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ZTS and GFS raised forward guidance.  However, PKI, HWM, GTX, and ENTG all lowered their own forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the bulls are looking to a positive open at this point. However, that is sure to change to either a nasty gap down or to a bigger gap up once the CPI numbers are out. Regardless of how that turns out, be careful wading into the volatility at the open. There is likely to be jerks in both directions before the bell stops ringing. However, the trend remains bullish, at this point, in all three major indices. SPY and DIA are still not quite broken free of their resistance test (they are passing so far) and QQQ is back up against the uptrend line dating back to the first of the year.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened modestly lower Friday (down 0.31% on the SPY, down 0.09% in the DIA, and down 0.70% in the QQQ) well up off the premarket lows.  From that point, we had a bit of divergence as the SPY roller-coastered its way sideways, the DIA had a very modest uptrend, and QQQ put in a volatile bearish trend.  However, during the afternoon all three synced up and trended modestly bullish the rest of the day.  This action gave us gap-down indecisive Doji candle in the QQQ and gap-down white-bodied candles in the two large-cap indices.  All three remain close below their T-line (8ema) and the DIA has held above its 50sma after another retest.  

On the day, seven of 10 sectors are in the green as Energy (+3.43%) led the way higher and Consumer Cyclical (-1.27%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 0.23%, the DIA was up 0.49%, and QQQ was down 0.66%.  At the same time, the VXX gained 1.25% to 12.18 and T2122 rose but remains in the midrange at 47.75.  10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.745% and Oil (WTI) is up by 2.23% to $79.80 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw a gap lower and then indecisive action the rest of the day.  All of this happened on less-than-average volume again.

In economic news, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came above expectations a bit at 66.4 (compared to a forecast of 65.0 and the January reading of 64.9).  Later in the day, the January Federal Budget Balance came in much better than expected at -$39.0 billion (a deficit, versus the forecast of -$63.0 billion and also much better than the December reading of -85.0 billion).  After the close, Philly Fed President Harker said that the strong January Payrolls Report has not changed his view that moving to small (quarter percent) rate hikes was the correct strategy for the FOMC.  Specifically, Harker (a voting member this year) said, “At this point, we can go at a pace of 25 (basis-point rate hikes) and get inflation under control without doing undue damage to the labor market.”  He also added that moving to smaller rate increases is a “risk management” issue for the Fed.  Finally, he opened the door to rate cuts in 2024.  On that topic, he said, “I don’t think that’ll happen this year,” but in 2024 “we could start to see movement downward in the federal funds rate that is likely to be gradual.”

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In stock news, TSLA reversed course in China by raising prices that it just recently cut.  Later, the US Army announced Friday that OSK had lost a $7 billion contract for a tactical vehicle.  At the same time, MGA warned about profits in 2023 citing margin pressure from US automakers.  Along those same lines, WMT publicly warned vendors (companies that sell products through WMT stores) that it can no longer take price hikes and will be pushing their own private-label products more as less-expensive alternatives.  This is normal business for WMT, but it is not common for the company to make public proclamations on the topic.  This move could impact the likes of PG, UL, KHC, CPB, KMB, CLX, and PEP (who all see billions of dollars of products through WMT).  Meanwhile, F announced it had cut its stake in EV company RIVN from 11.4% to 1.15% as part of a predetermined plan.  Elsewhere, Florida Governor DeSantis gained effective control over the board which oversees the DIS special district surrounding DIS theme parks.  I won’t go into the background, but the move cost Florida taxpayers about $1.2 billion and may cause DIS trouble related to its Florida theme park unit.  After the close Friday, F announced a new $3.5 billion battery plant to be built in Michigan as part of a joint venture with a Chinese battery company.  Elsewhere, HOOD won a dismissal of an investor lawsuit claiming the company had misled investors ahead of its 2021 IPO.  Finally, Reuters reported that FIS is preparing to break up its business, spinning off the payment processing unit it had acquired four years ago for $43 billion.   

In miscellaneous news, on Saturday, Indian Finance Minister Sitharaman said that G-20 countries are exploring collective regulation on cryptocurrencies.  No timetable or specifics were offered, but Sitharaman said the discussions are active.  At the same time, Reuters reported that META is not releasing departmental budgets internally as the company plans another round of layoffs.  Meanwhile, major TSLA investor Ross Gerber has launched a campaign to gain a seat on the company board.  His agenda is to reign in Elon Musk (addressing spending too much time on other companies, not having succession plans, and his stock sales).  Oddly, Gerber launched his bid on a Twitter Spaces call.  He said “I’ve kind of had enough…TSLA needs to build its image around Tesla, and not just Elon.  I think it’s time for TSLA to grow up.”  Finally, the balloon story won’t seem to go away as three more (much smaller and more likely weather-related according to analysts guesses) balloons were shot down Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the ocean off Alaska, over Canada, and over the US side of Lake Huron respectively). Meanwhile, China says that US balloons crossed its own airspace 10 times during 2022. So, that talk will continue.

In energy news, for the first time in eight weeks, Natural Gas gained ground.  The front-month Natty rose 4.3% for the week to close at $2.5140/mmBtu.  At the close of the week, US gas storage stood at 2.366 trillion cubic feet, which is up 10.9% from one year ago.  Elsewhere, CVX said Friday that it has agreed to sell its assets in Myanmar and will exit that country.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that XOM is quietly walking away from a decade-long project intended to create environmentally-friendly biofuels from algae.  XOM had already invested $350 million in the project.  At the same time, the US Treasury Dept. said that it had warned countries and companies located in Turkey and UAE that the US will start cracking down on the facilitators who are helping Russia avoid Western oil sanctions.  Finally, on Saturday, a meeting was held to discuss conditions at the Freeport Texas LNG export facility that was idled by an explosion and fire last June.  Area residents are complaining that regulators are not providing enough oversight and control over the facility as it moves toward coming back online.  (When fully operational, the facility processes 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day and is the largest LNG export facility in the US.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the downside. Singapore (-1.07%), Japan (-0.88%), and South Korea (-0.69%) lead the larger number of exchanges lower.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.14%) and Shanghai (+0.72%) were the only appreciable gainers on the day.  In Europe, stocks are mostly in the green at midday.  The FTSE +0.40%), DAX (+0.43%), and CAC (+0.86%) lead all but two exchanges to the upside in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the week.  The DIA implies a +0.15% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.66% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat a 3.74%, and Oil (WTI) is also flat at $79.74/barrel in early trade.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CX, CHKP, DDL, and THS before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ASTL, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, CAR, CDNS, ES, FE, IAC, MKSI, MRC, PLTR, and SEDG report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get January CPI and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report and we also get a Fed speaker (Williams).  Then on Wednesday, NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index, January Retail Sales, January Industrial Production, December Business Inventories, December Retail Inventories, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get January Building Permits, January PPI, January Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and a couple of Fed speakers (Mester, Bullard, and Mester).  Finally, on Friday, January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings later in the week, on Tuesday we hear from CAE, CLF, KO, ECL, ENTG, EXC, FELE, GTX, GEO, GFS, HRI, HWM, LCII, LDOS, MAR, BTU, PKI, QSR, TRU, WCC, ZTS, ABNB, AKAM, ANDE, CLW, CRK, CNDT, DVN, WIRE, ENLC, GDDY, GXO, HLF, MCY, NU, SCI, SU, TX, and WFG.  Then Wednesday, ADI, AVNT, GOLD, BIIB, CHEF, FIS, GNRC, ICL, KHC, LAD, MLM, OC, PSN, RPRX, RBLX, R, SABR, SITE, SAH, SUN, TMHC, TTD, WAB, WAT, ALB, ALSN, AMED, AEE, AIG, AWK, AR, CF, CSCO, SYH, CPA, ET, EQT, EQIX, HST, INVH, KGC, MRO, NEX, NUS, NTR, QDEL, RSG, REZI, RNG, ROKU, ROL, RGLD, RUSHA, SGEN, SHOP, SUM, SPWR, SNPS, TNET, TROX, TWLO, WCN, WELL, and Z report.  On Thursday, we hear from ARCH, BLMN, CVE, CEG, CROX, CNB, ETR, EPAM, FOCS, GGR, GVA, HAS, HSIC, H KBR, KELYA, LH, NSRGY, NGD, NMRK, DNOW, NRG, OGN, PARA, PBF, POOL, POR, RCM, RS, STNG, SO, SCL, SYNH, TOST, USFD, VC, VNT, VMC, WSO, WST, WE, ZBRA, AEM, AL, AEL, COLD, AMN, AMAT, ATR, BIO, BFAM, ED, CLR, DASH, DKNG, DBX, FBIN, GLOB, IAG, TDS, TXRH, USM, and VALE.  Finally, on Friday, ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL report.

So far this morning, FIS, CHKP, and TDC have reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, THS and DDL both reported a miss on revenue while they beat on the earnings line.  (CX has not reported yet.)  It is worth noting that FIS and THS both lowered forward guidance.  However, TDC raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the bulls are taking all three major indices back up to retest their T-line (8ema) from below this morning. However, neither the SPY or QQQ is to the point of retesting the Bull Flag downtrend they are in (at least in premarket). bears have the momentum coming off yesterday’s candle and with an overnight assist from the Russians. We do have another big earnings week with KO and KHC headlining that group. However, the big driver is likely to be CPI data on Tuesday. Do not be surprised if we drift today as traders wait on that report before betting big this week. The risk remains to the downside as markets are betting on a pause in hikes by the Fed (not March, but soon), inflation to keep coming down, AND the economy to hold up (no hard landing).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Thursday (up 0.93% in the SPY, up 0.68% in the SIA, and up 1.51% in the QQQ).  However, this was a bull trap as the bear immediately stepped in and sold off the market steadily all day long.  Price had completely faded the gap in all three major indices by 12:30 pm and then continued its way South.  Only a little bit of profit-taking by the bears during the last 25 minutes prevented us from going out on the lows.  This action gave us black-bodied candles that engulfed Wednesday’s candle body. (However, these are not Bearish Engulfing signals because Wednesday’s candle bodies were also black.)  All three major indices crossed back below their T-line.  

On the day, all 10 sectors are in the red as Communications Services (-1.34%) led the way lower and Consumer Defensive (-0.41%) held up better than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.87%, the DIA was down 0.69%, and QQQ was down 0.88%.  At the same time, the VXX gained 3.00% to 12.01 and T2122 fell again to the bottom end of the midrange at 26.78.  10-year bond yields jumped up again to 3.667% and Oil (WTI) is down by 1.06% to $77.64 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw a bull trap where the overnight gap was met with an all-day selloff.  Still, the bears did not break out of the decisive move.  So, the bullish trend remains unbroken.  All of this happened on less than average volume. 

In economic news, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in just above expectations at 196k (compared to a forecast of 190k but still an increase from the previous week’s reading of 183k).  Meanwhile, the Continuing Jobless Claims were also higher than was forecasted at 1,688k (versus a forecast of 1,658k and well up from last week’s value of 1.650k).  In Fed speak, Richmond Fed President Barkin said Thursday that tight monetary policy is “unequivocally slowing the US economy” which will allow the Fed to be “more deliberate” in any further interest rate increases.  Barkin went further than most Fed speakers by saying that, “We all know what people care about.  They care about food, gas, and shelter.”  He went on to say that he is watching those three things as his indicator of when inflation is under control.  Until they are, he said the FOMC has more work to do (implying more quarter-point hikes ahead).

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In stock news, GM and GFS announced a long-term deal to secure US-made chips for GM vehicles.  The deal will enable the carmaker to avoid the chip shortages that have plagued the auto industry since the start of the pandemic.  In layoff news, GTLB has announced it will reduce its workforce by 7% due to the current economic environment. Meanwhile, pot company CGC announced it will cut 36% of employees and sell assets in Canada in an effort to reduce costs.  The company cited black market competition as a significant hurdle.  Elsewhere, after the close, BKI announced it will put its loan software business up for sale.  The move is part of BKIs attempt to stem antitrust concerns after ICE’s proposed acquisition of BKI.  Meanwhile, XOM announced it will be merging some business units as part of a cost-cutting plan (despite blowout record profits in its most recent report).  The Wall Street Journal reported that the move was aimed at reducing a layer of management and concentrating the smaller units buying power and decision-making related to raw materials procurement.

In miscellaneous news, Thursday evening the Fed announced its 2023 bank stress test scenarios.  This year’s test will include a new “extra market shock” in addition to various recession scenarios.  The tests must be passed by the eight largest US banks, namely JPM, BAC, C, WFC, USB, PNC, MS, and GS.  Elsewhere, Labor Sec Walsh and President Biden’s Top Economic Advisor Deese have both called executives of CSX, UNP, NSC, and BRKA’s BNSF railroads.  The Administration officials pushed the companies to offer paid sick leave to rail workers represented by the 10 unions whose members are currently not offered any.  Finally, after the close, technology industry research firm Mercury Research released a report on the state of the processor market.  Overall, 2022 saw the worst downturn in the PC chip market since the 1980s.  INTC got crushed, losing market share to competitor AMD (which now has nearly one-third of the processor market).  AAPL and QCOM (both using chips from ARM) lost market share over the year as well.

In energy news, the front-month March contract for Natural Gas closed down again Thursday, settling at $2.43/mmBtu.  This was up off the day’s low of $2.351 after a larger than expected inventory draw was reported by the EIA.  A down US Dollar also helped all commodities on the day.  Elsewhere, Russia announced plans to cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day as of March to Western price caps.  This cut amounts to 5% of Russia’s daily oil output.  This news has both oil prices spiking 2% and European stock markets lower this morning.

After the close, MSI, G, MTD, VTR, TEX, CBT, LGF.A, and DXCM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, PYPL, MHK, NGL, BHF, FLO, and EQR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CC, LYFT, USX, MODG, and OSCR all beat on revenue while missing on earnings. Unfortunately, NWSA, EXPE, YELL, and CNXN all missed on both the opt and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that PYPL, MSI, MTD, and MODG all raised their forward guidance. However, MHK, CC, VTR, and LYFT lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned to the red side.  Hong Kong (-2.01%) was an outlier while Australia (-0.76%), Shenzhen (-0.59%), and South Korea (-0.48%) led the losses.  Meanwhile, Malaysia (+0.68%), New Zealand (+0.50%), and Japan (+0.31%) paced the gains.  In Europe, again with the sole exception of Norway (+0.19%), we see red across the board at midday.  The FTSE (-0.71%), DAX (-1.49%), and CAC (-1.28%) are leading the continent lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.47% open, the SPY is implying a -0.73% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are climbing again to 3.711% and Oil (WTI) is up 2% to $79.64/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am) and January Federal Budget Balance (2 pm) reports. We also hear from Fed members Waller (12:30 pm) and Harker (4 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ENB, FTS, GPN, HMC, IQV, MGA, NWL, SPB, and SLVM before the opening bell.  There are no major reports scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, NWL, GPN, TIGO, and FTS have reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ENB and MGA both reported beats on the revenue line while missing on the earnings line.  On the other side, IQV and HMC missed on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, SLVM and SPB missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MGA raised guidance while IQV and NWL both lowered forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the bears have the momentum coming off yesterday’s candle and with an overnight assist from the Russians. As markets prepare for the weekend, all three major indices are showing a bearish trend overnight that has flattened out after 6:15 am. This will give us that gap lower at the open unless something changes dramatically in the next two hours. This will break the uptrend line in the QQQ and move us close to retesting that uptrend line in the SPY. DIA is back inside its wedge but still has more ground to cover before retesting its own uptrend line. (When I say uptrend lines, I’m talking about those dating back to the start of the year.) Earnings were generally good last night but are more mixed this morning. So, it may be up to Consumer SEntiment and Fed Speak to turn things around if you’re a bull.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped modestly lower on Wednesday (down 0.48% in the SPY, down 0.33% in the DIA, and down 0.47% in the QQQ).  All three major indices took the first hour to find their footing and then a selloff began at about 10:30 am and lasted until about 11:45 am.  However, at that point, the bears took a rest and all three indices just meandered sideways along the bottom of their range the rest of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied Bearish Harami candles in the QQQ, SPY, and DIA with the latter two being more indecisive (Spinning Top type candles).  All three indices have held their T-lines (8ema) as support so far.

On the day, all 10 sectors are in the red as Technology (-1.79%) led the way lower and Communication Services (-0.20%) held up better than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 1.10%, the DIA was down 0.61%, and QQQ was down 1.78%.  At the same time, the VXX has shot up 3.74% to 11.66 and T2122 fell back out of the overbought territory and into the midrange at 66.30.  10-year bond yields are down to 3.625% and Oil (WTI) is up by 1.63% to $78.40 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw an indecisive bearish leaning inside day, but support may be holding and there was not a ton of strength shown by the bears. 

In economic news, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories came in just a bit below expected at 2.423 million barrels (compared to a forecast of 2.457 million barrels and last week’s +4.140 million barrels).  That was the only data.  However, there were several Fed speakers.  For example, Fed Governor Cook told an audience that the strong January Jobs Report coupled with moderating Wage Growth has increased the chances of a soft landing.  Elsewhere, NY Fed President Williams told a Wall Street Journal event that financial conditions are roughly in line with what the FOMC wants to see, but “we still have work to do (on raising rates).”  He went on to say “Moving to a federal funds rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% “seems a very reasonable view of what we’ll need to do this year in order to get the supply and demand imbalances down.”   At the same time, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told a Boston group that “there are some hopeful signs” but also “in my judgment…we need to bring the labor market into balance so that tells me we need to do more.”  Meanwhile, Fed Governor Waller told Arkansas State University that “There are signs that food, energy, and shelter prices will moderate this year….and the Fed’s rapid increases in interest rates have begun to pay off.”  However, he went on to say he is not seeing signs of a quick decline and he is “prepared for a longer fight.”  Finally, he said, “Though we have made progress reducing inflation, I want to be clear today that the job is not done.”

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, bucking trend among big banks, JPM said Wednesday that it will be HIRING 500 new small business bankers between now and the end of 2024.   Later, a US federal judge dismissed a lawsuit against WMT that had claimed the company had deceived customers by selling their Walmart brand “Fudge Mint Cookies” which contain neither fudge nor mint.  Meanwhile, the California New Car Dealers Association said that the TSLA Model Y and Model 3 were the two top-selling cars in that state for 2022.   However, TM retained its top spot for overall vehicle sales in the state, selling 17.3% of all cars sold in 2022 across all its various models.  At the same time, CNC has reached a $215.4 million settlement with the state of CA to resolve accusations of overcharging a state program in 2017-2018.  After hours, AFRM announced it is cutting 19% of its workforce after the CEO said the company deliberately over-hired the last few years to avoid missing product opportunities that were too compelling to miss.  In similar news, DIS said it will cut 7,000 jobs (3.6% of the workforce) as it reorganizes after the recent leadership change.  Finally, GOOGL and GOOG shares took a nosedive on the day as its new AI Chatbot Bard shared wrong information replies during a live-streamed company event to promote the new tool.  The company also failed to provide details on how and when it will incorporate Bard with existing offerings.

In energy news, the front-month March Natural Gas contract fell 7.3% Wednesday.  This erased gains from the prior two days and took the commodity to a level not seen since September 2020, closing at $2.3960/mmBtu.  This was up off the session low of $2.3690.  Meanwhile, Oil (WTI) closed up for the third day in a row as a weakening dollar helped offset what the EIA Weekly report said was a seventh consecutive week of US crude inventory builds, reaching a 20-month high of more than 37 million barrels.  At the same time, the EIA report said Gasoline inventories grew by 5 million barrels to almost 16 million barrels. That same report said distillate (diesel and heating oil) stocks grew by 2.932 million barrels, which was an increase of 2.8 million barrels more than expected.

After the close, DIS, MOH, DCP, ORLY, RE, MGM, DBOEY, AB, EFX, MMS, ASGN, FLT, SONO, NVST, WTS, CXW, NLY, AEIS, and UVV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GT, PPC, TSE, WYNN, and APP all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, XPO IFF, SON, STC, ENS, ULCC, AVB, TTMI, and MPWR all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, PAA, LNC, EQH, MAT, STE, HI, FWRD, and UHAL all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that IFF, MAT, EFX, STE, TTMI, CXW, and FWRD all lowered their forward guidance.  However, MMS, ENS, and APP raised their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with China in the green and the rest of the region in the red.  Shenzhen (+1.64%), Hong Kong (+1.60%), Shanghai (+1.18%), and India (+0.12%) posted the only green.  Meanwhile, Singapore (-0.86%), Australia (-0.53%), and Malaysia (-0.42%) paced the losses.  In Europe, with the lone exception of Norway (-0.08%), the entire region is well into the green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.73%), DAX (+1.29%), and CAC (+1.28%) are leading that region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.60% open, the SPY is implying a +0.73% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.599% and Oil (WTI) is off fractionally to $78.31/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am).   The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABBV, APO, MT, ARES, AZN, BN, BAX, BWA, BRKR, CIGI, DBD, DUK, FAF, GTES, HLT, HII, NSIT, NSP, IPG, ITT, K, LITE, MSGE, MAS, MDU, PATK, PTEN, PEP, PM, RL, SPGI, SEE, TPR, TU, TIXT, TPX, THC, TRI, TM, WMG, WEX, and WTW before the opening bell.  Then, after the close, BHF, CBT, CC, BAP, DXCM, EQR, EXPE, FLO, G, LYFT, MTD, MHK, MSI, NGL, OSCR, PYPL. CNXN, TEX, MODG, USX, VTR, and YELL report.  

Later this week, in economic news Friday, we get the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Jan. Federal Budget Balance reports and we hear from Fed members Waller and Harker.  In terms of earnings on Friday, ENB, FTS, GPN, HMC, IQV, MGA, NWL, SPB, and SLVM report.

So far this morning, TM, PEP, PM, MT, CRARY, DUK, THC, BWA, IPG, WTW, HLT, TRI, VWDRY, ITT, BRKR, MSGE, PTEN, and WEX all beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AZN, ASX, TPR, SEE, TPX, ARES, DBD, TIXT, and BN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CS, BAX, HII, and KIM all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, SIEGY, FAF, MAS, and CIGI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that PM, WTW, TPR, and CIGI all raised their forward guidance.  However, BAX and MAS lowered their forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, in addition to its earnings miss, CS reported massive and unprecedented client outflows (customers withdrawing their money) while warning there may be more losses in 2023.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that funds have closed more than $300 billion in short positions (according to data from JPM and DB).  This move brought the market closer to its 10-year average neutral position.  While this may seem bullish on its face, it could also mean that there are fewer shorts to squeeze and markets may have a harder time climbing unless the funds get outright bullish and start buying.

With that background, it looks like all three major indices are looking to gap higher while remaining inside the recent trading range (no breakouts). DIA’s gap will take it right back up to a potential resistance level. The trend remains bullish with even the DIA having slipped out of its Wedge formation modestly to the upside. With only the Weekly Jobless Claims scheduled today, look for generally strong earnings (better than had been expected), LUV being grilled by the Senate, and oddball news like yesterday’s GOOG AI demonstration failure to drive markets.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The SPY and QQQ opened essentially flat on Tuesday while the DIA gapped down a half of a percent at the opening bell.  All three major indices then meandered sideways until Fed Chair Powell began to speak at 12:40 pm.  At that point, the bulls spiked the market higher for 15 minutes, only to see the bears sell off all three indices hard for 35 minutes.  However, the bulls stepped back in at 1:40 pm to lead nearly as strong of a rebound rally lasted the rest of the day.  This action gave us large white candles with small upper and lower wicks.  The SPY and QQQ both held support at their T-line and DIA climbed back above its own T-line.  This took place on greater than average volume.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors are green as Energy (+2.42%) led the way higher and Consumer Defensive (-0.42%) lagged the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 1.31%, the DIA was up 0.90%, and QQQ was up 2.07%.  Meanwhile, the VXX was down 3.10% to 11.24 and T2122 climbed back up inside of the overbought territory at 84.67.  10-year bond yields were higher again to 3.681% and Oil (WTI) just spiked higher by 4.53% to $77.47 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw a blah day that got very volatile and eventually bullish after Fed Chair Powell gave his speech to the Washington Economic Club. 

The main news of the day was Fed Chair Powell’s Speech and Question-and-Answer Session at the Economic Club of Washington DC.  During his remarks, Powell said that “disinflation has begun…but it’s going to take a long time.”  He specifically cited the good sector as where the disinflation is showing itself strongest.  Later Powell said, “If we continue to get, for example, strong labor market reports or higher inflation reports, it may well be the case that we have to do more and raise rates more than is priced in (to markets).”  He was short on specifics.  However, he did say that “we need to be patient” and that rates will need to be held higher for a long time.  Finally, he said he expects inflation to fall all year in 2023, but it was likely to take into 2024 before the Fed target of 2% inflation is hit.  On the topic of the Fed Balance Sheet, Powell said he expects it will take a couple more years before the Fed is ready to end the shrinking of its balance sheet (selling bonds).  Overall, the Dollar, Bonds, and the Stock Market all took Powell’s comments as less hawkish than expected.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other economic news, December Exports came in a $250.20 billion (down from $252.40 billion in November).  Meanwhile, December Imports were up slightly, coming in at $317.60 billion (up from $313.40 billion in November).  This also increased the Trade Deficit with a December balance of $67.40 billion (which was less than the forecast of $68.50 billion but also above the November value of $61.00 billion).  Still, this was a record for the “trade gap.”  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report showed an inventory drawdown of 2.184 million barrels (compared to an expected inventory build of 2.150 million barrels and last week’s 6.330-million-barrel build).  Finally, during his “State of the Union” address, President Biden called for an unspecified additional tax on Billionaires and corporate stock buybacks.  He also asked for more antitrust legislation, called for the passing of an act to stop companies from preventing workers from organizing unions, and lastly the broadening legislation to cap the cost of insulin, saying it needed to not be limited only to Medicare recipients.

In stock news, ZM announced it will lay off 15% of its employees (1,300 jobs).  Later, EBAY said it would lay off 4% (400 employees) of its own workforce.  ZM stock closed up almost 10% on the news.  In quasi-related news, Bloomberg reported that META is poised to ask its Managers to become individual contributors (in addition to managing their teams) or leave the company.  Meanwhile, DAL announced it was giving employees a 5% increase in pay across the board effective April 1.  DAL cited strong travel demand and industry labor shortages as factors in the decision.  Meanwhile, WFC agreed to pay $300 million to settle a shareholder lawsuit claiming the bank had hidden the fact it pushed unnecessary insurance on auto loan customers.  Elsewhere, HTZGC made a regulatory filing Tuesday that showed it actually owns less than half of the TSLA cars it had planned to buy in 2022 (and TSLA releases had announced).   Finally, after hours, BBBY said it has completed its last-ditch stock offering, saying that it had received $225 million and is expecting to receive another $800 million in future installments as HUD (lead investor in this offering) resells or keeps the new shares.

In airline industry news, a bankrupt South African airline (Comair) has filed suit against BA for fraud related to its agreement to buy eight 737 Max planes.  The suit claimed BA failed to disclose problems within its flight control system that caused the two plane crashes in 2018 and 2019 leading to airline losses.  BA refused to return the airline’s deposit on 737 Max planes after the crashes and 20-month groundings.  This is nearly identical to a suit filed by a Polish airline PLL LOT in 2021, which is still pending.  At the same time, BA competitor EADSY (Airbus) reported plane deliveries for January were down by a third, to 20 planes, according to Reuters.  In other labor-related news, SPR announced Tuesday that it is experiencing disruptions in supplying parts for the BA 787 and the EADSY A350 due to labor shortages. 

After the close, SNEX, LUMN, KD, OMC, AMCR, AIZ, VRTX, VOYA, FMC, EHC, CNO, ITUB, SSNC, WERN, QGEN, PLUS, PEAK, and ENPH all reported beats to the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, VFC, CCK, CSL, and FTNT all missed on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line. On the other side, NCR, WU, ILMN, ATO, RXO, and NBR all beat on the revenue line while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, PRU, YUMC, CMG, VSAT, and JKHY all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that KD, VRTX, FTNT, QGEN, and ENPH all raised their forward guidance.  However, CCK, EHC, SSNC, BKH, JKHY, and PEAK all lowered their own forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  Taiwan (+1.41%), South Korea (+1.30%), and India (+0.85%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.62%), Thailand (-0.60%), and Shanghai (-0.49%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only Russia (-0.55%) in the red.  The FTSE (+0.72%), DAX (+0.76%), and CAC (+0.45%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day after Tuesday’s rally.  The DIA implies a -0.30% open, the SPY is implying a -0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down to 3.64% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.22% to $78.09/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and WASDE Report (noon).  However, we also have three Fed speakers (Williams at 9:15 am, Vice Chair for Bank Supervision Barr at 10 am, and Waller at 1:45 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FOX, BDC, BAM, BG, CPRI, CDW, CME, COTY, CVS, D, ETN, EMR, EEFT, FOXA, GPRE, INGR, NYT, PAG, PFGC, REYN, RITM, TEVA, TRMB, UBER, UA, UAA, VSH, WFRD, WEN, and YUM before the opening bell.  Then, after the close, AB, UHAL, NLY, APP, ASGN, AVB, EQH, ENS, NVST, EFX, RE, FLT, FWRD, ULCC, GT, HI, IFF, LNC, MAT, MMS, MGM, MOH, ORLY, PPC, PAA, SON, SONO, STE, STC, SLF, TSE, TTMI, DIS, and XPO report.   

In economic news later in the week, on Thursday we get Weekly Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Jan. Federal Budget Balance are reported and we hear from Fed members Waller and Harker.

In terms of earnings later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ABBV, APO, MT, ARES, AZN, BN, BAX, BWA, BRKR, CIGI, DBD, DUK, FAF, GTES, HLT, HII, NSIT, NSP, IPG, ITT, K, LITE, MSGE, MAS, MDU, PATK, PTEN, PEP, PM, RL, SPGI, SEE, TPR, TU, TIXT, TPX, THC, TRI, TM, WMG, WEX, WTW, BHF, CBT, CC, BAP, DXCM, EQR, EXPE, FLO, G, LYFT, MTD, MHK, MSI, NGL, OSCR, PYPL. CNXN, TEX, MODG, USX, VTR, and YELL.  Finally, on Friday, ENB, FTS, GPN, HMC, IQV, MGA, NWL, SPB, and SLVM report.

So far this morning, CVS, PFGC, PAG, UBER, ETN, D, YUM, UAA, WFRD, BDC, COHR, RITM, UA, SCGLY, and FUJIY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TTE, EQNR, BAM, BG, CDW, TEVA, INGR, COTY, CME, TRMB, and EEFT all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CRTO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, EMR, CPRI, REYN, and VSH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that COTY, UAA, and BDC all raised their forward guidance.  However, INGR, CPRI, REYN, TRMB, VSH, and CRTO all lowered their own forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, interest rates dropped for a fifth consecutive week causing an 18% spike in refinance mortgage demand while new home purchase loan applications rose by 3%.  However, demand was still much lower than one year ago.  The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming mortgage fell to 6.18% with points also falling slightly.  Meanwhile, in addition to their earnings, CVS announced it has agreed to buy OSH for $39/share in cash ($10.8 billion overall).  This is CVS’s second acquisition in the healthcare provider space in a year.  Elsewhere, there were 4 big dividend moves of note.  DD hiked its dividend by 9.1% (to 2% annualized), VF cut its dividend by 41% to $0.30/share, MCRI declared a special dividend of $5.00/share, and MSBI hiked its dividend by 3.4% to 4.6% annualized.

With that background, it looks like all three major indices are looking to open as inside candles after yesterday’s strong move up. None of them appear to be retesting their T-lines (8ema) during premarket. However, DIA is not that far above its own T-line. The trend remains bullish (strongly bullish in the QQQ) in all three, but the DIA also remains in and upswing within its wedge. DIA and QQQ both have potential resistance just overhead with SPY dealing with a lesser level (from June ’22 highs and March ’22 lows). With only the EIA and Ag reports today, look for Fed speak as a potential volatility driver. However, in general, this should be a pure market sentiment day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped lower on Monday (down 0.61% in the SPY, down 0.39% in the DIA, and down 0.90% in the QQQ).  From there, all three major indices rode the roller-coaster sideways all day long.  This action gave us gap-down, indecisive Doji or Spinning Top type candles in the three major indices. The SPY held its T-line as support. Meanwhile, the DIA gapped down through and rallied up to retest its own T-line from below, not quite getting back above it while at the same time finding support off its own 50sma.  This all happening on a much lower-than-average volume.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors are red as Technology (-1.53%) led the way lower and Utilities (+0.46%) held up better than other sectors. At the same time, the SPY was down 0.61%, the DIA was down 0.10%, and QQQ is down 0.86%.  Meanwhile, the VXX was up 2.39% to 11.59 and T2122 dropped back down into the midrange at 54.39.  10-year bond yields have spiked higher again to 3.655% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.38% to $74.40 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw a gap lower, but then indecision, perhaps meaning the bears are uncertain whether they really want to push the bulls.  Basically, both sides need a little energy from some catalyst. 

In stock news, DELL announced it is laying off 6,650 employees (5% of staff).  At the same time, PSA made an $11 billion hostile takeover bid for LSI.  This amounts to a bid of $129.30/share, but not in cash, in PSA stock instead.  LSI was at $110.58/share at the time of offer, but it closed up 11.28% to $123.05 on the day.  Elsewhere, after it reported beats on both lines, ON announced a $3 billion stock buyback program, which was double the size of the previous program.  This is significant in the chip sector that had been weak with the exceptions of AMD.  In other tech news, GOOGL announced it is planning to launch an AI Chatbot service called Bard (powered by GOOGL’s LaMDA which is a competitor to ChatGPT, which MSFT recently announced will be built into their products).  The service has already been released to beta testers.  Meanwhile, in the gold sector, NEM has made a $17 billion takeover bid for NCMGF.  Bloomberg reports the offer is not likely to be challenged by NEM rival GOLD.  Meanwhile, AMC announced a new ticket pricing structure where the ticket price will be based on seat location in tiers.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In airline industry news, on Monday, the FAA said it is proposing a $1.1 million fine on UAL for conducting Boeing 777 flights without conducting the required preflight fire system warning checks.  UAL has 30 days to respond to the charges.  Elsewhere, the IATA (largest airline trade organization) said that many airlines will fail to meet the FAA deadline to retrofit altimeters to avoid 5G wireless interference.  (Last summer, VZ and T voluntarily agreed to delay their use of some 5G spectrum to give airlines more time.  However, now the FAA, VZ and T are negotiating again for another extension.)  This is expected to have some small impact on the telecom companies’ expansion of 5G their networks.  Meanwhile, the EU version of the FAA ruled Monday that it will not permit single pilot flights by 2030 as airlines had been seeking (to help with labor shortages).

In commodity news, the US Dollar rose to a 4-week high against the Euro Monday as the reverberations from last week’s January Payroll numbers continued.  This caused a dampening effect on all commodity prices.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that the US will impose a 200% tariff on Russian Aluminum as soon as this week.  (Reportedly, the final decision has not been made as the Biden administration talks to US Aerospace and Auto industry leaders, the main importers of Russian Aluminum, about the damage that might cause to their businesses.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that US farmers are planning to boost corn acreage in 2023.  This comes after a late-season drought crushed the 2022 harvest and has brought US corn supplies to near decade-low levels.  This modest 2.5% shift in acreage use is likely to cause dramatic swings in everything from seeds and fertilizer to herbicides, and eventually to food prices.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Bloomberg that unless last week’s Payrolls report turns out to be an anomaly, it would mean the Fed still has more work to do.  Specifically, he said the FOMC would need to push the peak interest rate higher than he now projects (which is 5%-5.25% as a terminal rate).  At the same time, late in the day Monday, GS cuts its odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 25% (down from 35%).  GS cited a rapid reduction in inflation and wage growth as well as improving business sentiment as supporting a “soft landing” and the Fed stopping its tightening regime sooner.  In an unrelated story, after hours Monday, Bloomberg reported that hedge funds tracked by GS trimmed their long positions at the fasted rate in two years over the last several market days.  However, they are also not taking huge short positions either.  Bloomberg also reported the JPM data on the matter concurred.  They called this “de-grossing” move the largest move to cash and lower-risk trades since the day after the first Reddit-driven squeeze in January 2021.  Then this morning, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told CNBC that the Fed has not done enough yet based on January’s explosive job growth and he is raising his terminal rate expectation to 5.4% (which is higher than what most of his peers have publicly announced). He also went further in saying “we need to raise rates aggressively to put a ceiling on inflation” (which the market will not like to hear.

After the close, ACM, NOV, SPG, SAVE, FN, SKY, DIOD, KMT, SSD, and GNW all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CINF and SWKS both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, PINS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. Unfortunately, ATVI, TFII, AMRK, LEG, and TTWO all reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SWKS, LEG, SPG, TTWO, and PINS all lowered their forward guidance.  However, FN raised its own forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves.  South Korea (+0.55%), Hong Kong (+0.36%), and Shanghai (+0.29%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Malaysia (-0.95%), Australia (-0.46%), and India (-0.24%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  The FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (-0.17%), and CAC (unchanged) are typical of the spread in the region.  None of the European bourses have moved as much as one percent in either direction yet in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed and mostly flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.32% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 3.63% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 1.5% to $75.24/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday December Imports/Exports, and Dec. Trade Balance (both at 8:30 am), and API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 pm) are reported and Fed Chair Powell speaks at 12:40 pm.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADNT, AGCO, ARMK, ARCC, BP, BV, CG, CARR, CTLT, CNC, CEIX, DD, FSV, IT, GPK, HAIN, HTZ, INCY, J, KKR, LIN, NTDOY, NVT, OMF, RCL, SCSC, SPR, TDG, and XYL before the opening bell.  Then, after the close, AMCR, AIZ, ATO, CSL, CMG, CNO, CCK, EHC, ENPH, PLUS, FMC, FTNT, PEAK, ILMN, ITUB, JKHY, KD, NBR, NCR, OMC, PRU, RXO, SSNC, SNEX, VRTX, VFC, VSAT, WERN, WU, and YUMC report.   

In economic news later in the week, on Wednesday EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported and Fed member Williams speaks.  On Thursday we get Weekly Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Jan. Federal Budget Balance are reported and we hear from Fed members Waller and Harker.

In terms of earnings later this week, on Wednesday, FOX, BDC, BAM, BG, CPRI, CDW, CME, COTY, CVS, D, ETN, EMR, EEFT, FOXA, GPRE, INGR, NYT, PAG, PFGC, REYN, RITM, TEVA, TRMB, UBER, UA, UAA, VSH, WFRD, WEN, YUM, AB, UHAL, NLY, APP, ASGN, AVB, EQH, ENS, NVST, EFX, RE, FLT, FWRD, ULCC, GT, HI, IFF, LNC, MAT, MMS, MGM, MOH, ORLY, PPC, PAA, SON, SONO, STE, STC, SLF, TSE, TTMI, DIS, and XPO report.  On Thursday, we hear from ABBV, APO, MT, ARES, AZN, BN, BAX, BWA, BRKR, CIGI, DBD, DUK, FAF, GTES, HLT, HII, NSIT, NSP, IPG, ITT, K, LITE, MSGE, MAS, MDU, PATK, PTEN, PEP, PM, RL, SPGI, SEE, TPR, TU, TIXT, TPX, THC, TRI, TM, WMG, WEX, WTW, BHF, CBT, CC, BAP, DXCM, EQR, EXPE, FLO, G, LYFT, MTD, MHK, MSI, NGL, OSCR, PYPL. CNXN, TEX, MODG, USX, VTR, and YELL.  Finally, on Friday, ENB, FTS, GPN, HMC, IQV, MGA, NWL, SPB, and SLVM report.

In overnight news, BBBY announced last night that it will try a list-minute (last ditch) stock sale to raise the cash to avoid bankruptcy. They are hoping the new shares will raise just over $1 billion. Elsewhere, CS announced that it is canceling (at least for now) the company “Compensation Day” where employees were told their bonus amounts (and given the money) for 2022. The company had previously announced they were slashing the bonus pool in half this year due to the financial condition of the company.

So far this morning, CARR, DD, J, GPK, XYL, IT, OMF, INCY, NVT, BV, ARCC, FISV, and CEIX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BP, CNC, ARMK, ADNT, CTLT, FISV, and VVV all reported beats on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, LIN, CG, and HAIN reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, NTDOY (Nintendo) missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that FISV raised its forward guidance while BV lowered its own forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the SPY and DIA are going to test their T-lines (8ema) again this morning. Meanwhile, QQQ looks to be trying to put a bottom into its two-day pullback (at least in premarket trade). The wedge pattern in the DIA and the bullish trends in the SPY and QQQ remain the main technical features of the market at this point. Do not be surprised if we wander around until Fed Chair Powell’s remarks this afternoon. I think that Bostic and Kashkari were presignalling his sentiments (preparing the market for his words today) and that Powell is likely to make sure the market realizes there will be no “March pause” (as several talking heads had predicted in the recent past). However, he is also likely to say the jobs numbers were a good sign that the Fed is walking a “Goldilocks path” where inflation is coming down and at the same time jobs are being created. In short, he’s likely to imply that we just need to “stay the course” with modest hikes for a while to definitely get inflation under control at the same time we stay on the soft-landing trajectory.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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