Markets were basically undecided on Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.18%, QQQ gapped up 0.22%, and DIA opened up just 0.06% higher.  At that point, all three major index ETFs wobbled around on that opening level.  Then starting at about 11:15 a.m., the SPY and QQQ began (followed at noon by the DIA) a steady selloff that lasted until 2:15 p.m.  From there, all three rallied to recross the morning gap and end in bullish territory.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles in all three of the index ETFs.  The SPY and DIA printed Doji-type candles while the QQQ printed a Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs remain stretched above their T-line (8ema) and stayed above their 50sma (in the DIA also above the 200sma which is just below its 50sma).  This happened on far-below-average volume in all three of those ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were again in the red with Energy (-1.13%) leading the way lower while only Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) and Technology (+0.02%) were able to hang on to green territory (barely at that).  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.22%, DIA gained 0.12%, and QQQ gained 0.41%.  The VXX fell another 3.31% to close at 20.48 and T2122 dropped out of the over-bought territory and back into the mid-range at 67.37.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.659% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to close at $80.88 per barrel.  So, Monday gave us a sixth-straight day of gain in the SPY and DIA and the seventh in the QQQ.  However, this happened on very indecisive candles and all three of the major index ETFs remain very stretched.

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, there were some Fed speakers.  Fed Governor Cook told a Duke University event the rising short-term bond yields are not tied to the Fed’s policy plans.  She also said, “I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates.”  She went on to imply that she is in the “no more hikes” camp by saying “we hope that this will be restrictive enough such that we can return to our 2% target over time.”  However, on the other side, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he would prefer to err on the side of tightening too much rather than not enough.  Kashkari said, “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time.”  The interview quoted him as going on to say “I am not ready to say we are in a good place (yet)” (in terms of having a high enough Fed Funds rate).  Elsewhere, a Fed report released Monday said bank loan officers are reporting a slowing of the tightening of credit requirements as well as (or maybe due to) a weaker loan demand.  The report said 60% of banks cite moderately to substantially weaker loan demand in Q3 (up from 43% in Q2).

In stock news, on Monday, C announced that they are aiming for at least a 10% cut to its workforce as part of CEO Frasier’s restructuring.  (For reference, C has 240,000 employees at this point.  So, we are talking about something like 24,000 layoffs.)  Later, CHE announced its board had approved a $300 million increase in its share buyback plan.  At the same time, the CEO of EQT said the US is facing an imminent energy crisis solely due to public resistance to building new pipeline capacity.  He went on to say that natural gas pipeline construction fell to a record low in 2022 and capacity is down almost 900 million cubic feet per day versus the 28 billion cu.ft./day in 2017.  Later, HGV announced that it had acquired BVH for $1.5 billion (including debt).  BVH shares shot almost 107% higher on the news.  Elsewhere, AIG announced it will raise funds by issuing a 50-million share secondary offering of CRBG.  (The underwriters of the secondary, GS, and JPM will have the option to buy an additional 7.5 million shares on top of the 50 million.)  In related news, AIG also initiated a tender offer to rebuy $1 billion worth of its outstanding debt securities.  At the same time, GM announced (that strikes) it had reversed a previous decision and rehired the 1,245 Brazilian employees it had laid off at the Sao Paulo S-10 pickup and Trailblazer engine plant.  Later, BCSF announced it was buying consulting firm Guidehouse from private Veritas Capital for $5.3 billion.  Meanwhile, WELL announced plans to offer $3 billion worth of common stock to fund property acquisitions.  At the same time, CPG announced plans to acquire HHRS for $15.33 per share.  Finally, on Monday night CNBC reported that the GM Cruise robotaxis requires human assistance every four to five miles.  The report said GM maintains one “driver assistant” for every 15-20 robotaxis to get the car past any tricky driving.  The report said assistants provide “wayfinding data” to the onboard computer and do not take over to remotely drive the vehicle.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a lawsuit against WFC and Navy Federal Credit Union has moved to federal mediation.  The lawsuit alleges the financial institutions should have prevented the customer from transferring $3.6 million from his savings to a foreign entity (scam) because the customer had suffered a stroke and was diminished enough that his account had been flagged by Adult Protective Services. Later, MULN announced that it had been given EPA certification for its Class 1 EV cargo vans.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Ag reported that TSN is recalling 30,000 pounds of fully cooked dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets after USDA inspectors found small pieces of metal in samples of the product.  Later, the FAA announced it would hold an additional round of runway safety meetings at 16 more airports in the coming weeks after recent troubling close-call incidents.  (LUV, FDX, and most of the major airlines as well as airport officials are required to attend.)  At the same time, TM confirmed the NHTSA report that it is recalling 1.9 million RAV4 SUVs over a defect that could cause a fire.  Later, NKE filed suit against SKX and private New Balance over alleged patent infringement.  Then after the close, GE agreed to pay $9.4 million to settle US federal claims that it sold “uninspected” and “out of spec” parts to the US Army and Navy.  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a second major antitrust case, this one filed by Epic Games and related to Google Play Store monopoly over Android app distribution.  After the close, a federal judge pared back a US government lawsuit against drug distributor COR (formerly ABC) for its part in the opioid epidemic.  (The Dept. of Justice alleges COR changed its order monitoring policies, dramatically reducing oversight of opioid orders.)  Finally, the FTC has sent requests to TPR and CPRI for more information about the planned $8.5 billion purchase of CPRI by TPR.

After the close Monday, ARKO, CNO, COHR, CXW, FANG, FN, FSK, IFF, JELD, NXPI, PARR, O, RNG, SVC, TRIP, UIS, and WMK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BKD and TDC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CBT, CE, CLOV, CTRA, GT, ICUI, RHP, STRL, and VRTX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ATSG, COMP, CRGY, and SANM missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CE and SANM both lowered their forward guidance.  At the same time, CXW, FN, RNG, and STRL raised their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Thailand (-0.18%) in the red.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+5.66% not a typo, huge rally after a ban on short-selling), Japan (+2.37%), Shenzhen (+2.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.71%) led a huge rally.  In Europe, bourses are more mixed with an even split of green and red at midday.  With that said, the big boys of Europe are red with the CAC (-0.36%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.05%) leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.595% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.42% to $81.65 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes September Imports, Sept. Exports, and Sept. Trade Balance (all three at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Waller (10 a.m.) and Williams (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, ADV, APD, GBTG, AMRX, BCO, CG, CLVT, CNHI, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, EMR, EVRG, FIS, GEN, GEO, GFS, INGR, KKR, LCII, MLCO, PRGO, RXO, TAC, UBER, VTNR, VST, WAT, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AMRK, AKAM, AEL, ANDE, BHF, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, CAPL, DAR, DVA, DVN, EBAY, EC, PLUS, EXR, FNF, GILD, GO, GXO, IAC, IOSP, JKHY, JHX, KD, MASI, DOOR, MOS, MRC, OXY, OVV, PAAS, PR, PRI, PRIM, RXT, RIVN, HOOD, SNBR, STE, TKO, TOST, and VTRS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories and hear from Fed Chair Powell as well as Fed member Williams again.  On Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, KLG, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS.  On Thursday, AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, GS said Monday that, in their estimation, the current high yield of Treasury bonds is the equivalent of four quarter-point Fed rate hikes.  This reduces the need for additional FOMC rate hikes (again, by their estimate).  Elsewhere, OpenAI announced the next version of its ChatGPT AI app. At the same time, Natural Gas prices fell 7% Monday after the EIA reported record output and updated its Winter forecast to be milder. Finally, in late-breaking news, WE filed for bankruptcy as had been expected for some time.

So far this morning, AHCO, AMRX, BCO, CLVT, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, FOR, GBTG, GEO, GFS, KKR, RXO, SGRY, TAC, VTNR, AND ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, APD, CG, EVRG, INGR, PRGO, AND WAT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UBER beat on revenue while missing on the earnings lines.  Unfortunately, ADV, CNHI, EMR, LCII, VST, and FIS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CNHI and SGRY lowered their forward guidance.  However, DDOG, EMR, and VST raised their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market is again undecided early in the day. The Premarket started lower in all three major index ETFs. From that point, all three that printed small, indecisive, and mixed-color dandles during the early session. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have the control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three remain a bit stretched from their T-line but the T2122 indicator has dropped back into its mid-range. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market remains in need of a pause or pullback to relieve extension. (However, as always, remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls were in charge again all day Friday with the SPY gapping 0.54% higher, the DIA gapping up 0.50%, and the QQQ gapping up a smaller 0.36%.  From there, all three of the major index ETFs put in a long slow rally that meandered its way to the highs of the day at 3:05 p.m. only to take modest profits the last hour of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ had no lower wick but did have upper wicks from the late afternoon profit-taking.  However, DIA printed a gap-up Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs are now extended above the T-line (8ema) and are now sitting at or near a resistance level.  DIA also crossed up through both the 50sma and 200sma (which are squeezed), while the QQQ crossed up through its own 50sma and SPY just crossed up through its 50sma.  This all happened on average volume in the DIA and the QQQ and slightly lower-than-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were again in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.46%) way out front leading the way higher and Energy (-0.69%) lagging far behind (by almost 1.5%) the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.65%, and QQQ gained 1.17%.  The VXX fell another 2.35% to close at 21.18 and T2122 climbed even further into its overbought territory at 96.33.  10-year bond yields dropped again to end the day at 4.572% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 2% to close at $80.78 per barrel.  So, just like every day last week, on Friday the markets opened higher and continued North.   For the week, SPY gained 5.85%, DIA gained 5.06%, and QQQ gained 6.49% on 5-straight higher closes in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news reported Friday, October Average hourly Earnings came in lower but above expectations at 4.1% (year-on-year) compared to a September value of +4.3% and a forecast of +4.0%.  On a month-on-month basis, this was lower than expected at +0.2% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and a September reading of +0.3%).  At the same time, October Nonfarm Payrolls increased but also less than predicted at +150k (compared to a forecast of +180k and down tremendously from the September value of +297k).  October Private Nonfarm Payrolls also were up but far less than was anticipated at +99k (versus a forecast of +158k and September’s +246k).  At the same time, the October Participation Rate fell to 62.7% (compared to a forecast and prior reading that were both 62.8%).  Together, this led to a tick higher in the October Unemployment Rate to 3.9% (versus the forecast and September value of 3.8%). Later the October S&P Global Services PMI came in lower than expected at 50.6 (compared to a forecast of 50.9 but up from September’s 50.1).  The Oct. S&P Global Composite PMI then was also a bit lower at 50.7 (versus a forecast of 51.0 but still up from a September reading of 50.2).  Later, the October ISM Non-Mfg. PMI came in soft but still indicated expansion at 51.8 (compared to a forecast of 53.0 and a September value of 53.6).  Lastly, the October ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index were hotter than planned at 58.6 (versus the forecast of 56.6 but still down slightly from the September reading of 58.9).

In stock news, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday that NFLX is considering entry into the live-sport streaming by buying the rights to Premier Boxing.  AMZN is already bidding on that series of events after PARA announced it would be exiting the boxing broadcasting arena at the end of 2023.  Later, BMWYY (BMW) released a strong Q4 sales forecast saying that its order book is filled into even the first few months of 2024.  The luxury car company said it had no interest in or need for price cuts the way several of its competitors (such as TSLA in the electric arena) have engaged.  At the same time, JLL announced it has expanded its borrowing limit to $3.3 billion and pushed out the maturity of its debt to November 2028 (from April 2026).  This was done to shore up the real estate giant’s balance sheet.  Later, reports surfaced that HLI is in talks to acquire private investment firm Triago.  Elsewhere, the union representing pilots told Reuters that contract negotiations with FDX are now scheduled to restart Monday. The negotiations will be under new union leadership after the union rejected a tentative deal (for a 30% pay increase) reached by the company and prior union leadership.  At the same time, LGF.A and LGF.B subsidiary Starz announced restructuring including laying offs 10% of its staff and exiting operations in the UK and Australia.  Later, LCID announced price cuts on its Air luxury electric sedans by 7.9% – 9.1%.  In the same industry (but other end of the price range) Chinese EV-maker NIO announced it will cut 10% of its workforce and may divest non-core branches across China.  At the same time, S&P and MCO both upgraded the credit rating of F after nearly 4-years of their bonds being rated as “junk.” At the close, KHC announced a major leadership shakeup with reshuffling happening at the beginning of fiscal year 2024. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the US Dept. of Transportation said that it agrees with a complaint made by JBLU (and co-signed by a US Airline Industry group) against the Netherlands and the EU.  (The Dutch government had denied JBLU 339 landing slot at Amsterdam Schiphol airport in order to east noise pollution.)  As a result, JBLU had asked the US to delay granting a landing license to German or KLM (French-Dutch) airlines at NY airports.  Later, ALK was sued by three passengers after an off-duty pilot traveling in the cockpit jump seat tried to crash a flight headed for San Francisco on Oct. 22.  The plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Portland, where the offender was arrested.  However, the suit claims the airline was at fault for allowing non-duty people to travel on the flight deck.  Later, BCS was sued by investors who claimed the company should have known of its former CEO’s close ties to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein (and that lack of control cost those investors money as the ties between Epstein and the former CEO came to light).  In late afternoon, Reuters reported that the US Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed to expand their oversight of non-bank asset managers and hedge funds which pose a systemic risk to the financial system.  (This is the reinstatement of oversight and reporting scrapped by the ex-President.)  Among those impacted will be BLK.  After the close Friday, Reuters reported that the FTC used a secret algorithm called “Project Nessie” to push up prices by punishing its own sellers who also sold via WMT’s e-commerce system.  At the same time, in an unexpected twist, the US Forest Service announced Friday that it wants to allow carbon capture and storage projects inside national forest lands.

After the close Friday, TSE reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Thailand (-0.18%) in the red.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+5.66% not a typo, huge rally after a ban on short-selling), Japan (+2.37%), Shenzhen (+2.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.71%) led a huge rally.  In Europe, bourses are more mixed with an even split of green and red at midday.  With that said, the big boys of Europe are red with the CAC (-0.36%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.05%) leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.595% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.42% to $81.65 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMG, AL, BNTX, BAM, DISH, SATS, ES, GOL, HGV, KNF, THS, and VVX.  Then, after the close, ATSG, ARKO, BKD, CBT, CE, CLOV, CNO, COMP, CTRA, CXW, CRGY, FANG, FN, GT, ICUI, IFF, ITUB, JELD, NXPI, PARR, O, RNG, RHP, SANM, SVC, STRL, TRIP, and VRTX report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, Sept. Imports, Sept. Exports, Sept. Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  We also hear from Fed members Waller and Williams.  Then Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories and hear from Fed Chair Powell as well as Fed member Williams again.  On Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, AHCO, ADV, APD, GBTG, AMRX, BCO, CG, CLVT, CNHI, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, EMR, EVRG, FIS, GEN, GEO, GFS, INGR, KKR, LCII, MLCO, PRGO, RXO, TAC, UBER, VTNR, VST, WAT, ZBH, AMRK, AKAM, AEL, ANDE, BHF, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, CAPL, DAR, DVA, DVN, EBAY, EC, PLUS, EXR, FNF, GILD, GO, GXO, IAC, IOSP, JKHY, JHX, KD, MASI, DOOR, MOS, MRC, OXY, OVV, PAAS, PR, PRI, PRIM, RXT, RIVN, HOOD, SNBR, STE, TKO, TOST, and VTRS report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, KLG, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS.  On Thursday, AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, major US banks including BAC, CCF, USB, TFC, and WFC all experienced disruptions in processing deposits Friday due to problems with Automated Clearing House (a major network for processing transactions).  Elsewhere, it has come out that as part of its deal with the UAW, GM has agreed to invest $13 billion in US facilities by April 2028.  Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s BRKB announced a huge blowout earnings that featured a 41% increase in operating earnings and a record amount of cash on hand of more than $157 billion.  (It is worth noting that Buffett is buying short-term Treasury bonds with his massive pile of cash.)  However, it was not all sunshine and rainbows for BRKB as the company announced a $24.1 billion loss on investments in Q3 (mostly on its massive AAPL stake).

In still other news, Elon Musk’s xAI company (not to be confused with his X platform, formerly Twitter) released its own AI tool named “Grok” over the weekend.  The late-to-the-party AI, was trained on data from X…so, it will have all the intelligence and correct answers Twitter has been known for over the last decade.  (That was a joke in case anyone actually thinks social media is accurate on average.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports the hedge funds made a terrible trade last week by taking the largest short position in Treasuries Futures since 2006.  The levered funds did this just before a weak US bond sale and weak jobs data led to a big bond rally.  Finally, the ex-president is scheduled to testify in the damages portion of the NY state trial meant to determine what he, his adult children, and his company must pay for their civil fraud conviction in NY state.  (The guilty verdict on the main count was reached summarily based on the mountain of evidence. The trial is not about guilt, which has been established, only about how many tens or hundreds of millions of dollars they are ordered to pay and what other penalties, like loss of business licenses, might be imposed.)

So far this morning, AMG, BRKB, KNF, and PHIN have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BNTX and THS reported misses on revenue while beating one earnings.  However, DISH, and ES missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BNTX and THS both also lowered their forward guidance.  (AL, BAM, GOL, HGV, and VVX all report closer to the opening bell.)

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market has not yet decided on what to do today. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher but had put in small, indecisive, and mixed-color candles in the early session since that higher open. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls are still in full control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three are a bit stretched from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deep in its over-bought territory. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market is in need of a pause or pullback just to relieve extension. (However, as always, remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day higher Wednesday with SPY gapping up 0.23%, DIA gapping up 0.16%, and QQQ gapping up 0.21%. After that open, QQQ led the way immediately rallying while the SPY took 15 minutes before following and DIA actually recrossed its opening gap before following in the rally that continued until 11 a.m. for all three.  At that point, all three major index ETFs traded in a long sideways trough that lasted until the Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.  However, once Powell spoke the Bulls were off to the races again in a sharp rally that lasted until 3:40 p.m. only to be very slightly blunted by profit-taking the last 20 minutes.  This action gave us gap-up, large white candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.  All three major index ETFs crossed back above their T-line (8ema) with SPY now located just below its 200sma.  All of this happened on above-average volume in the DIA and QQQ and average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, all 10 sectors were again in the green with Utilities (+1.57%) way out front leading the way higher and Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.05%, DIA gained 0.67%, and QQQ gained 1.74%.  The VXX fell 4.35% to close at 22.43 and T2122 climbed again to the center of its mid-range at 52.09.  10-year bond yields dropped to end the day at 4.747% and Oil (WTI) fell to close at $80.90 per barrel.  So, it seems the Bulls liked the ADP precursor to the October Payrolls data and popped markets at the open and for the first part of the day.  Then we saw hand-wringing and waiting on the widely expected Fed decision.  However, when Fed Chair Powell told markets we were in a goldilocks scenario, the Bulls ran again only taking profits in the last minutes of the day.

The major economic news reported Wednesday included the October ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in lower than expected at 113k (compared to a 150k forecast but still higher than the September reading of 89k).  Later the S&P Global Mfg. PMI was reported in line with what was predicted at 50.0 (versus a forecast of 50.0 and slightly better than the September 49.8 value).  At the same time, the October ISM Mfg. PMI came in lower than anticipated at 46.7 (compared to a forecast of 49.0 and a September reading of 49.0).  October ISM Mfg. Employment was reported lower than expected at 46.8 (versus a forecast of 50.3 and well down from the September 51.2).  Meanwhile, Sept. JOLTs Job Opening remains stronger than predicted at 9.553 million (compared to a forecasted 9.250 million and even higher than the August value of 9.497 million).  Later EIA Crude Oil Inventories rose but by less than anticipated at +0.774 million barrels (versus a forecast of +1.261 million barrels and the prior week’s +1.371 million barrels number).  Then, as almost universally expected, the FOMC held the Fed Funds rate at 5.50%.

In his post-decision press conference, the key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell were that the US economy is strong, he is hesitant to advocate for a December rate hike, he is unwilling to commit to not hiking, and high treasury yields help but he was unwilling to say specifically how much they help.  In general, Powell implied that there is no hurry and things are going so well that we can wait and see. Powell said, “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.”  When asked if the Fed is done raising rates, he said, “We’re not confident at this time that we’ve reached such a stance.”  When pressed further about when the Fed will start cutting rates, he said “The question of rate cuts just doesn’t come up right now” adding “It’s fair to say the question we’re asking is should we hike more.”  When Powell was asked about whether rising bond yields are supplanting the need for additional hikes, the Chair said those yields would need to be substantially higher before they bear on specific hike decisions.  However, he added that higher Treasury yields “are showing through” to real-world borrowing costs (which helps discourage growth that is too strong) and “it remains to be seen” if persistently high yields could eliminate the need for more hikes down the road. 

In stock news, NIO announced its October deliveries of 16,074 vehicles (up 3% from September and up 60% from October 2022).  Competitor XPEV reported 20,002 cars sold (a whopping 31% increase versus September and a 292% increase over October 2022).  However, XPEV only delivered 8,741 cars, which while a company record was obviously far below demand.  LI (the other major Chinese EV competitor) delivered 40,422 cars in October (a 12% month-on-month increase and a 302% increase over Oct. 2022).  At the same time, NDAQ announced it had acquired Adenza from Thoma Bravo for $10.5 billion.  NDAQ said it expects Adenza to yield $80 million in cost-saving synergies and $100 million in long-term revenue increases.  Later, SCHW announced it had laid off 5% – 6% of its headcount (between 1,795 – 2,154 jobs).  By late morning, TM announced it is raising the wages and benefits of its US non-union workers in response to the UAW pay increases won from the Big 3 automakers. Later, Reuters reported that FUN and SIX are in merger talks.  After the close, DIS officially announced it is acquiring the remaining one-third stake in Hulu from CMCSA.  In the wide-expected deal, DIS will pay CMCSA $8.61 billion by December 1.  Also after the close, CLX said it expects to rebuild dwindling customer inventories by the end of Q4.  CLX has fallen way behind after an August cyberattack took its order fulfillment operation offline for more than a month starting in August.  Finally, late Wednesday evening, DAL announced it is laying off “some” corporate workers in order to cut costs.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, in the UK, a court ruled the British equivalent of a $2 billion class-action lawsuit against AAPL can proceed for allegedly hiding defective batteries by throttling performance in millions of iPhones.  In other European news, the EU announced a ban related to META’s handling of user data on FaceBook and Instagram.  The ban (which may be finalized as soon as next week) would require META to explicitly ask for and receive user permission before using any personal information to deliver targeted advertising.  This would be a huge blow to META, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, and other companies that sell targeted ads.  Later a US Court of Appeals judge ordered the SEC to “fix” what he called defects in its rule on share buybacks.  The rule (adopted in May) requires disclosure of share buyback data.  The decision was a significant win for corporate lobbyists who had argued for keeping such data undisclosed.  In late afternoon, the FDIC suspended the auction of assets of FBNC following the bank’s striking a deal with investors to pump $35 million into the delisted bank.  After the close, a (now former) GS investment banker was sentenced to three years in prison for passing tips on mergers GS was working on to accomplice traders.  Also after the close, the SEC announced it is investigating WFC related to conflicts of interest in its customer cash sweep choices.  At the same time, the Dept. of Energy warned NFE that if any of its Altamira floating LNG project was actually located onshore in Mexico, the company needs to reapply for a new export permit.  The project was expected to start shipping LNG this month. Elsewhere, the SEC filed charges SWI and its Chief Info. Security Officer alleging fraud and regulatory control violations related to the MOVEit cyberattack where Russian hackers compromised companies and Pentagon email addresses.  Finally, the NHTSA announced late Wednesday that TM is recalling 1.85 million RAV4 SUVs over fire risks related to replacement battery installation defects.

After the close, AFL, ABNB, ALL, ATUS, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, AVT, AXS, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CPE, CWH, CLX, COKE, CW, DASH, EA, ET, ETSY, EXAS, GFL, HST, IR, MTW, MRO, MCK, MELI, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, PK, PYPL, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, REZI, SCI, SBGI, SP, SUM, SMCI, WTS, Z, and ZG all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ANSS, CAR, BKH, CHRW, CRC, CTSH, DXC, THG, PTVE, CNXN, PRU, RNR, RUN, TYL, WES, WMB, and WSC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AFG, CHRD, ESTE, HLF, ROKU, SIGI, and WERN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ALB, BALY, BMRN, CF, CAKE, EIX, NVST, EXEL, LNC, VAC, MET, NOG, NUS, NTR, PTC, RRX, SEDG, TS, and VSTO all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABNB, EXAS, HST, IR, PTVE, PYPL, QRVO, QCOM, and SMCI all raised their forward guidance.  Unfortunately, ANSS, BXP, CTSH, VAC, NTR, PTC, and SEDG lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned strongly to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.94%) and Shanghai (-0.45%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+2.23%), South Korea (+1.81%), New Zealand (+1.78%), and Thailand (+1.74%) led the rest of the region higher.  In Europe, we see strong green numbers across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.77%), DAX (+1.51%), and FTSE (+1.26%) lead the region higher on volume with several of the smaller bourses up well more than the volume leaders in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a higher start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.55% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.84% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields a down slightly to 4.711% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 1.5% to $81.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Factory Orders (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, and ZTS.  Then, after the close, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, BAC said Wednesday that its “Sell-Side Indicator” is at levels of extreme bearishness, which is bullish for stocks.  (In essence, they are saying their proprietary indicator says the market is extremely oversold.)  The indicator value implies a 15.5% return on the SPY in the next 12 months.

In miscellaneous news, BAC said Wednesday that its “Sell-Side Indicator” is at levels of extreme bearishness, which is bullish for stocks.  (In essence, they are saying their proprietary indicator says the market is extremely oversold.)  The indicator value implies a 15.5% return on the SPY in the next 12 months.  Elsewhere, JPM CEO Dimon criticized the state of TX (and by extension the other GOP-led states of similar ilk) which has passed laws designed to punish banks for any policies that stop them from working with fossil fuel industries.  Meanwhile, SBUX gave another hint that the economy remains strong.  The coffee company reported same-store sales grew 8% mostly attributed to higher average purchases but also a 3% increase in customers.

So far this morning, FOX, GOLF, WMS, APTV, BAX, BR, BRKR, COR, CI, COP, CRTO, DLX, DFH, LLY, NVRI, EPAM, FOXA, GCI, GEL, DINO, HWM, HII, ITT, KTB, LAMR, MAR, TAP, MUR, NVO, PLTR, PBF, PENN, PWR, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SEE, SHOP, SBUX, TFX, VIRT, and VNT all reported beats on both the revenue and the earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADT, AEP, APG, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BDC, BWA, CVE, XRAY, DUK, ENTG, H, ING, IRM, KBR, DNOW, NRG, OGE, PBI, PRMW, SHEL, SRCL, WEN, WLK, and ZTS all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, EXC, PTON, RCM, and TRN beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, CIGI, PZZA, MD, STGW, and TPX missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in full control in the premarket this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the early session higher and have put in large, white-bodied candles with little wick since then. All three of the major index ETFs are now above their T-line (8ema) and SPY is crossing back above its 200sma in the premarket. Keep in mind that all three still remain near correction territory, being down 6%-7% from their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend while the Bulls have control this week. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line while the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, there is room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find the momentum. This morning we seem to be getting energy from good earnings reports and Fed decision, statement, and comments yesterday. However, there is some news in the premarket and day that could give us volatility. So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was the second straight day with the Bulls in charge. All three major index ETFs opened flat before putting in a modest selloff the first 30 minutes of the day.  At that point, the Bulls took over to lead a gradual and wavy rally that lasted the rest of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied, Hammer-type candles.  DIA crossed back up above its T-line (8ema), SPY is right at the T-line (just cents below), and QQQ is now close to retesting its own T-line.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were again green with Healthcare (+0.90%) and Communication Services (+0.89%) leading the way higher and Basic Material (-0.03%) was the only sector in the red (barely). At the same time, the SPY gained 0.63%, DIA gained 0.38%, and QQQ gained 0.48%.  The VXX plummeted another 6.42% to close at 23.45 and T2122 climbed up out of its oversold territory and into the mid-range at 38.60.  10-year bond yields rose to end the day at 4.924% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.14% to close at $81.35 per barrel.    

The major economic news reported Tuesday included the Q3 Employment Cost Index, which came in a bit hot at +1.1% (compared to a forecast of +1.0% and a Q2 reading of +1.0%).  Later, the October Chicago PMI came in a bit low at 44.0 (versus a 45.0 forecast and slightly less than the September value of 44.1).  A few minutes later, the Conf. Board Consumer Confidence came in better than predicted at 102.6 (compared to a 100.0 forecast but a bit less than the 104.3 September reading).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a modestly less-than-anticipated oil inventory build of 1.347 million barrels (versus a 1.601-million-barrel increase forecast but significantly larger than the prior week’s 2.668-million-barrel drawdown.

In stock news, JBL announced it has acquired INTC’s Silicon Photonics “pluggable optical transceiver” product lines for an undisclosed amount.  At the same time, DOC and PEAK announced an all-stock merger that results in a $21 billion healthcare real estate company.  (The company will trade under DOC when the deal closes in early 2024.)  Elsewhere, TM announced it will invest an additional $8 billion in its existing NC EV battery plant, creating 3,000 new jobs.  At the same time, BX and Vista Equity Partners announced they will jointly buy Australian firm Energy Exemplar.  (Both firms will hold 50% in what sources say was a more than $1 billion valued Aussie firm.)  Later, WE announced it had decided to withhold interest payments on roughly $6.4 million of its senior notes when they become due today (11/1).  The company has a 30-day grace period but raised concern when it expressed “substantial doubt” about whether it can continue operations back in August.  (However, after the close, sources told Reuters WE would file for bankruptcy as soon as next week.)  By mid-afternoon, MSFT announced they had released a major Windows 11 update which includes the debut of Ai-powered Windows Copilot.  At the same time, BNS sold its 20% interest in the financial services unit of Canadian Tire back to the retailer for $647 million.  (BNS had paid $500 million for that stake in 2014.)  Sticking North of the border, V and BMO announced a partnership to offer a new installment payment service to Canadian cardholders starting in 2024.  Back in the US, shares of VRV spiked Tuesday following the announcement of an expanding partnership with LLY where LLY is acquiring the rights to multiple VRV gene editing products.  At the same time, NVDA shared dropped almost 5% at one point on a Wall Street Journal article that reported the company would have to cancel $5 billion in Chinese orders to remain in compliance with US restrictions on selling advanced AI chips to China.  Still NVDA stock recovered to close down less than 1%.  

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, TTM was awarded $1 billion by a three-member arbitration tribunal in India in the action they brought against Indian regional development authority.  That authority had solicited TTM to buy land and build a plant in West Bengal India.  However, regional authorities then forced TTM to return the land acquired for the plant and the company had to move the project to another region of the country.  Later, a PA jury ordered MMTOF (Mitsubishi Motors) to pay just under $977 million in damages to a man who became quadriplegic in a vehicle rollover due to an allegedly defective seatbelt.  Elsewhere, the Dutch consumer watchdog group is challenging the fees AAPL charges to dating app providers in Netherlands.  Bloomberg reported this was part of a long-standing case against AAPL, with the authority having fined AAPL $53 million in 2021 for failure to comply with EU antitrust regulations.  At the same time, Semafor reported Tuesday that MS is close to finalizing a settlement with the US Dept of Justice and SEC for between $500 million and $1 billion related to MS mishandling of private “block trading” stock sales.  Later, NOK filed suit against AMZN and HPQ in multiple jurisdictions claiming unauthorized use of NOK’s video-related technologies in streaming devices and services.  (NOK recently entered into a licensing deal with AAPL over the same technologies.)  Late in the day, a group representing automakers (GM, TM, VLKAF, and HYMTF) announced that it opposes the proposed CLF acquisition of X.  In a letter to FTC Chair Khan and Dept. of Justice Antitrust Chief Kanter, the group claimed it would reduce competition and cause increased steel prices in the US.  Meanwhile, TSLA won the first US trial over allegations that its Autopilot feature led to a death.  This was a major victory for the company although the company faces a number of very similar lawsuits.  After the close, GOOGL announced it had settled claims from dating app MTCH which had claimed GOOGL had monopolized Android app distribution.  This settlement leaves Epic Games as the sole plaintiff in the antitrust suit against GOOGL with jury selection set for this week and the trial scheduled to begin Nov. 6.  At the same time, D was given approval from the US Dept. of Interior to build a 2.6-gigawatt offshore windfarm off the Virginia coast (the largest windfarm built offshore in the US).  Finally, after the close, the FDA approved AMGN’s version of JNJ’s blockbuster psoriasis treatment Stelara.

After the close, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, CZR, CHK, HY, LFUS, MTCH, and MTH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EQH, LUMN, SKY, TX, and VOYA all beat on revenue while missing on earnings. On the other side, FSLR, MCY, LBTYA, OI, QUAD, SON, and UNM all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. However, BXC, ENLC, EQR, HUN, OKE, and YUMC missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that LFUS, MTCH, MTH, and SON lowered their forward guidance while OKE raised its own guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the bullish side.  Japan (+2.41%) was by far the biggest gainer after the Japanese government announced a stimulus package, followed by South Korea (+1.03%), and New Zealand (+0.87%).  On the red side, India and Malaysia tied at -0.47% to pace the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similarly mixed but a bit more bearish picture taking shape at midday.  The CAC (-0.06%), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (-0.16%) lead the region on volume as nine of the 15 bourses in the region are modestly in the red while six are modestly in the green.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures indicate a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.33% open, the SPY is implying a -0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.903% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.68% to $82.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), S&P US Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, and Sept. JOLTs Job Openings (all at 10 a.m.), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), FOMC Rate Decision and FOMC Statement (both at 2 p.m.), and the Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  On The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, and YUM.  Then, after the close, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Tuesday evening that the Panama Canal will again cut its daily ship crossing slots due to drought.  (Prolonged drought has seriously depleted the lakes used to fill the many locks used to make the transit across the canal.  For example, October rainfall was the lowest for a month since 1950.)  This reduction will be to 25 vessels per day with additional planned reductions to 18 per day over the next three months.  These reductions will push up shipping costs (by cutting available vessels while some sit in the queue and by increasing transit distances and times to avoid the canal) and reduce the volume of global trade both immediately and over coming months.

In mortgage news, as rates remain high (relatively speaking), the proportion of demand looking for adjustable-rate mortgages popped nearly 10% this week.  According to the Mortgage Brokers Assn. the national average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan actually fell from 7.90% to 7.86%.  (Closing points also fell from 0.77 to 0.73 this week.)  Even so, applications for a new home purchase loan fell 1%, and refinance loan applications fell 4% for the week.  And among this smaller number of loan applications, the number looking for an adjustable-rate mortgage rose 10% to 10.7% of all mortgages.

So far this morning, AXTA, EAT, CHEF, CVS, DRVN, ESAB, FDP, GRMN, GNRC, HUM, JHG, KHC, LPX, LKNCY, PSN, SUN, TEL, TT, UTHR, and VRSK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BLCO, BLDR, CDW, DD, ETR, EL, IDXX, IQV, KMT, LML, NI, TRI, TRMB, W, and YUM all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SITE and SSRM beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, APO, DTE, and TKR missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that EAT, ESAB, NI, PSN, and TT all raised their forward guidance while EL lowered its guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are in control in the premarket this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower and have put in smallish black-body candles since then. The DIA has now crossed back below its T-line while the SPY and QQQ moved back down away from their own 8emas. However, these are all Bearish Harami candles (meaning indecision leaning bearish) this morning. Keep in mind that all three remain near correction territory, being down 7%-9% from their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the trend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line while the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, there is room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find the momentum. Today, that energy might come from the 10 a.m. news drop but it is more likely to come in reaction to the Fed or Fed Presser at 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. respectively. So, beware of volatility, even as the market has priced in a 97.2% probability the FOMC will hold rates steady. Words matter and we can expect a tweak to the FOMC statement as well as what Fed Chair Powell says in his remarks and answers this afternoon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls had the momentum pretty much all day Monday. The SPY and DIA gapped up 0.69% at the open while the QQQ gapped up 0.73%.  All three of those major index ETFs followed through mildly for the first 30 minutes.  At that point, the DIA led the way for a change, beginning a mild bullish trend at about 10:50 a.m. while the SPY and QQQ kept meandering until their own stronger rallies started at 1 p.m. and lasted until 3:30 p.m.  Then all three have very modest selloffs the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three. The SPY and QQQ both printed larger-body Spinning Top candles while the DIA printed a large-body candle that retested and just backed down from its T-line (8ema).  This happened on above-average volume in the DIA and modestly below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, nine of 10 sectors were green with communications Services (+1.77%) led the way higher while Energy (-0.05%) was the only sector in the red (barely).  At the same time, SPY gained 1.20%, DIA gained 1.58%, and QQQ gained 1.13%.  The VXX plummeted 7.46% to close at 25.06 and T2122 climbed but remains just inside the top end of its oversold territory at 18.25.  10-year bond yields rose to end the day at 4.888 and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.58% to close at $82.48 per barrel.    

There was no major economic news reported Monday.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, the Canadian Unifor strike against STLA was settled with a tentative deal within hours of the start of a Unifor strike.  Later, the UAW announced it had reached a tentative deal with the last of the Big 3 Automakers (GM).  Interestingly, GM says the 6-week strike cost is more than $400 million per week, which is more than double what F (who settled last Wednesday) said the strike had cost it.  The 25% wage increase over four years that all three carmakers agreed to was the first significant wage increase for the UAW since 2008 when they gave up large amounts of wages and benefits to save the industry.  The GM deal includes a 25% base pay increase through April 2028 which when coupled with cost-of-living increases will bring the top union wage to $42/hour by the end of the contract.  It also reduced the time it takes a worker to reach the top tier of pay and brought two new GM business units under the deal. Finally, the deal increases retiree benefits which were major concessions made by the union back in 2008.

In stock news, Reuters reported Monday that AVGO expects its $69 billion purchase of VMW to close before its Nov. 26 deadline, despite continuing Chinese investigation of the deal over antitrust concerns.  AVGO told Reuters that the Chinese scrutiny did not pose a legal impediment to closing the deal.  At the same time, SAN announced it is set to unload $5.29 billion in “bad” real estate assets in order to shore up its balance sheet.  Elsewhere, WMT announced it is investing $9 billion over two years to upgrade 1,400 stores (out of 4,717).  117 WMT stores featuring upgrades worth $500 million are set to open Friday.  At the same time, F announced it is adding 15k TSLA chargers to its own vehicle charging network.  (No timeline was given for the addition, but F now expects to offer 106,000 chargers in the US in early 2024.)  Later, Reuters reported that GSK accounted for two-thirds of the RSV vaccines in the US since early September, dominating the only rival PFE.  (GSK’s $280 shot is $15 cheaper than the PFE shot.)  Analysts say there will be in the low hundreds of millions of RSV vaccinations in 2023.  At the same time, Reuters reports that BP is actively seeking joint ventures in the US shale natural gas production space.  This includes in the Permian Basis where XOM recently went big by buying PXD.  Later, LITE announced it was doubling its cloud computing infrastructure by purchasing Cloud Light for $750 million.  At the same time, ON announced it is laying off 900 workers due to an expected sluggish Q4, based on an expected slowing in electric vehicle demand.  In Pharmacy news, workers at CVS and WBA began a 3-day walkout Monday demanding improved working conditions and more staff at the stores.  (Essentially, the claim is that pharmacy companies are forcing pharmacists to do the work of two or more people, including delivering vaccine shots and answering health insurance questions in addition to their normal prescription filling duties.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, Reuters reported Monday that more than 14 progressive non-profit groups are pressing the US Dept. of Justice to step back from the “free pass” they perceive the Biden DOJ having given corporate offenders.  (The Biden DOJ has implemented a “safe harbor” policy to entice corporate disclosure of their misconduct.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Transportation said a civil fine (or an unspecified amount) of LUV is warranted related to the December 2022 meltdown that caused 16,700 flight cancellations, causing major disruption to two million passengers.  Later, EU antitrust regulators granted approval for HTHIY (Hitachi) to buy Thales’ GTS Railway Signaling unit for $1.80 billion. Meanwhile, CP was served a “transfer pricing order” by the Indian Income Tax Authority.  Essentially, the order accuses CP of avoiding Indian taxes by transferring money across borders between CP divisions.  Later, two US Senators (one from each party) asked the US Dept. of Transportation and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to take action on “troubling reports” about deceptive and unfair airline frequent flyer loyalty programs.  Elsewhere, GOOGL CEO Pichai testified in the US antitrust lawsuit Monday.  He acknowledged the importance to the company of making its search engine the default for phones, browsers, and laptops.  Under cross-examination, Pichai granted that the company spends billions of dollars each year for such deals and noted that GOOGL “definitely sees value” from that default status program. 

After the close, AGNC, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, CLW, CWK, CVI, MATX, MPWR, PEAK, PINS, PSA, PSMT, QGEN, SPG, THC, and WELL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, KMPR, NEXA, and VFC both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, RYI and VNO both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CACC, FMC, LEG, and RIG missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMKR and VFC lowered their guidance.  At the same time, ANET, RYI, SPG, and WELL all raised their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the red side.  Hong Kong (-1.69%), South Korea (-1.41%), and Taiwan (-0.92%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the sole exception of Russia (-1.18%), we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.97%), DAX (+0.52%), and FTSE (+0.57%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  This came as Eurozone inflation dropped significantly in October to 2.9% (the lowest level in two years) and the Eurozone GDP declined 0.1% for Q3 (which was significantly better than forecast by economists).  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures point toward another positive start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.38% open, the SPY is implying a +0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.13% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.829% and Oil (WTI) is up about two-thirds of a percent to $82.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Q3 Employment Cost Index (8:30 a.m.), Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AGCO, ALLE, AME, AMGN, BUD, ARES, BCC, BP, CCJ, CAT, CEIX, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, BEN, GEHC, GVA, GPK, GPRE, HNI, HUBB, INCY, NSP, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, PFE, PEG, ST, SIRI, SFM, STLA, SYY, BLD, UFPI, WEC, XYL, and ZBRA.  Then, after the close, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, EQH, BXC, CZR, CGAU, CHK, ENLC, EQR, FSLR, HUN, HY, JBSS, LBTYA, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MCY, MTH, OI, OKE, SON, TX, UNM, VOYA, and YUMC report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P US Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and the Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, YUM, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.  On Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Monday that half of the S&P 500 have now reported earnings. So far, 77% of those have beaten expectations. Of those that have reported, Consumer Discretionary companies have been the biggest surprise, beating earnings expectations by an average 19% according to Refinitiv earnings data.  Later, the US Treasury Dept. said it expects to borrow $776 billion in Q4, down $76 billion from its July estimate citing increased revenue estimates (a strong economy plus taxes deferred from CA and HI due to disasters means more tax revenue).  In potentially related news, GS raised its long-term US economic growth estimates, saying that AI will boost productivity in the US more than it had previously expected.  Elsewhere, as expected, after the close, AAPL announced three versions of its new M3 chip (based on the ARM architecture and TSM 3nm production process), a new iMac, and a new MacBook Pro at its “Scary Fast” product launch.  (Macs accounted for only 11% of AAPL sales in 2022.) Finally, social media platform X (formerly Twitter) is now worth just 43% of what Elon Musk paid for it one year ago. While Musk paid $44 billion, stock awards just made to employees value the company at $19 billion.

In international news, Israeli PM Netanyahu again rejected growing calls for a cease-fire in their war against Hamas.  At the same time, Chinese factory activity contracted and the Chinese services sector failed to expand (as had been expected) in October.  This weaker-than-expected data is sure to lead to calls for more stimulus from Beijing.  In Japan, the BoJ held rates steady (the only Central Bank with a negative rate) but made a tweak to permissible government bond yields.  The BoJ claims this will give them more flexibility in shaping long-term yields.  (The Yen fell lower on this news.)

So far this morning, ALLE, AMGN, BCC, CAT, FNMA, GEHC, GPN, GVA, GPRE, IGT, LDOS, MPC, PFE, ST, BLD, and XYL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AME, BUD, ETN, GPK, INCY, LGIH, MSCI, SIRI, and WEC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, MPLX, NBIX, and ZBRA all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ARES, BP, CEIX, EPD, and JBLU missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are again in control in the premarket this morning. The SPY and QQQ opened the early session lower, but have put in brong white-bodied candles to take price above the Monday close. Meanwhile, DIA opened the early session higher and ran up above its T-line (8ema) where the bears are pushing back to have a retest of that level. DIA does have the only significant wick (upper) of the three so far this morning. With that said, keep in mind at least two of the three remain below their T-line and also down 7%-9% from the summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the trend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line and while the T2122 indicator is still in its oversold territory, it is barely in that range. So, we may get additional relief from being oversold but the need is not nearly as bad as it was Monday morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher on Friday, gapping up 0.39% in the SPY, opening dead flat in the DIA, and gapping up 0.87% in the QQQ.  At that point, the DIA led the move lower, followed by an indecisive SPY, and finally a QQQ that was bullish the first two hours.  By 11:30 a.m. all three were selling in a jagged fashion the rest of the day. This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and DIA only had lower wicks (based on the last wave being up the final 15 minutes.  However, the QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top Inside Day candle.  All three remain well below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on just above-average volume in the SPY and above-average volume in the QQQ and DIA.

On the day, eight of 10 sectors were red with Basic Material (+0.11%) and Technology (+0.07%) being the only ones to stay green while Healthcare (-1.89%) and Utilities (-1.83%) led the way lower.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.45%, the DIA lost a whopping 1.11% (led that way by CVX -6.72%), and QQQ gained 0.48%.  VXX gained 3.32% to close at 27.08 and T2122 fell back into the low end of the oversold territory at 6.22.  10-year bond yields ended the day unchanged at 4.845% while Oil (WTI) rose 2.34% to close at $85.16 per barrel on Middle East war fears.  

The major economic news reported Friday included the September PCE Price Index (year-on-year) of +3.4%, which was in line with the forecast and the August reading.  On a month-on-month basis, this was +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but in line with the August reading of +0.4%).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in better than expected at 63.8 (versus a forecast of 63.0 but down from the September reading of 68.1).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations came in lower than predicted at 59.3 (compared to a forecast of 60.7 and the September value of 66.0).  Meanwhile, the Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectation was very high at 4.2% (compared to a forecast of 3.8% and a September reading of 3.2%).  Further out, the Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectation was in line with predictions at 3.0% (versus a forecast of 3.0% but up from the September value of 2.8%).

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, following Wednesday’s settlement with F, the UAW held nearly non-stop negotiation sessions with STLA and GM on Thursday and Friday.  Both the CEO of GM and the President of the UAW participated in the round on Friday.  As of Friday evening, a deal was said to be close, as both companies agreed to the same 25% pay increase that F agreed to earlier but talks continued.  At the same time, the union at F began returning to work Friday, ending the 6-week strike.  (As a side note, F announced Friday that the strike had cost the company $1.3 billion.) Then on Saturday evening, the UAW announced it had reached a tentative deal to end the strike against STLA.  (Reportedly, UAW President Fain had turned his focus to GM after focusing more on STLA on Friday.)  However, by Saturday evening, GM was still refusing on issues F and STLA agreed.  So, the UAW increased the strike by having 4,000 workers walk off the job at GM’s Spring Hill TN assembly plant (GM’s largest US plant).  Early today, the Canadian Autoworker Union (Unifor) called a strike of more than 8.200 workers against STLA up North.  (Unifor already reached deals with F and then after a 12-hour strike with GM. In last-minute news, STLA also settled with Unifor after about 12 hours of that strike.)  In tangentially related news, back in the US, F said it was postponing a $12 billion investment in EV manufacturing expansions. GM had also delayed the opening of a second EV truck plant and canceled a joint project between itself and HMC aimed at making sub-$30k EVs for the global market.

In stock news, GM announced it had decided to suspend operations of all its Cruise driverless robotaxis amid safety concerns.  At the same time, UPS announced it is buying the “Happy Returns” unit from PYPL.  UPS said the purchase of Happy Returns and a previously announced deal to buy MNX Global Logistics will total more than $1 billion.  Later, Reuters reported that merger negotiations between WDC and Japan’s Kioxia have stalled.  At the same time, DUK announced it would build an end-to-end “Green Hydrogen” energy plant in FL.  The plant will split water into hydrogen and oxygen using solar power to generate the electricity needed and is expected to be operational in 2024.  Elsewhere, JPM announced that CEO Dimon will be selling 1 million of his 9.6 million shares of JPM in a strategic diversification move.  Later VLKAF (Volkswagen) said it is cutting 2,000 jobs and has pushed back the release of its Porsche Macan EV until 2024.  After the close, BA announced it is assessing a claim made by a cybercrime gang (Lockbit) that the group had “a tremendous amount” of sensitive BA data and would dump the data to the public if the company did not pay a ransom by Nov. 2.  Then on Friday evening, GOOGL announced it is investing $2 billion in Anthropic (a competitor to MSFT-backed OpenAI) to further its presence in the AI market.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, On Friday, GOOGL announced its CEO would testify today in the US antitrust case against the tech giant.  Later, ABBV said it is taking a $2.1 billion charge related to and ahead of its negotiations with Medicare over its leukemia drug.  Elsewhere, NSC announced it has begun installing AI-based safety inspection portals at a dozen locations on its tracks.  The portals will use high-speed cameras and AI software to do safety inspections while trains keep moving.  This comes in response to EPA and FRA pressure following the railroad’s Feb. derailment and mass chemical spill in East Palestine OH.  Later, Reuters reported that the Argentine government had filed a motion with a US District judge asking that the judge stay the enforcement of a $16.1 billion judgment over the nationalization of a then minority state-owned oil company (YPF).  The judgment was due to REPYY, which had a 51% stake in the company.  By mid-afternoon, ANF was sued for ignoring a sex-trafficking ring run by former CEO Mike Jeffries, who allegedly lured young men in using the promise of becoming models for the ANF brand.  After the close Friday, JNJ announced that the Dept. of Justice has sought documents and information related to the drugmaker’s eye surgery products in connection with a DOJ civil (not criminal) investigation. Finally, early today President Biden announced a new executive order aimed at putting some guardrails on AI. The order calls for the Commerce Dept. to create safety and security standards covering AI. The order also aimed at protecting consumer data, watermarking AI-created content, and providing guidance to landlords and federal contractors to avoid unfair discrimination based on AI model training deficiencies.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Shenzhen (+1.61%) was far and away the leader for the bulls while Japan (-0.95%) paced the four losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are nearly green across the board at midday.  Only Portugal (-0.07%) is in the red as the CAC (+0.71%), DAX (+0.58%), and FTSE (+0.76%) lead that region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the open.  The DIA implies a +0.58% open, the SPY is implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.77% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are at 4.886% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.37% to $84.37 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open include ACDVF, BGC, CHKP, CAN, DQ, HSBC, JKS, MCD, ON, RVTY, SOFI, WDC, and XPO.  Then, after the close, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, CACC, CWK, CVI, FMC, PEAK, KMPR, LEG, MATX, MPWR, NEXA, PINS, PSA, QGEN, RYI, SPG, THC, RIG, VFC, and WELL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Q3 Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P US Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and the Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AGCO, ALLE, AME, AMGN, BUD, ARES, BCC, BP, CCJ, CAT, CEIX, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, BEN, GEHC, GVA, GPK, GPRE, HNI, HUBB, INCY, NSP, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, PFE, PEG, ST, SIRI, SFM, STLA, SYY, BLD, UFPI, WEC, XYL, and ZBRA, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, EQH, BXC, CZR, CGAU, CHK, ENLC, EQR, FSLR, HUN, HY, JBSS, LBTYA, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MCY, MTH, OI, OKE, SON, TX, UNM, VOYA, and YUMC.  Then Wednesday, ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, YUM, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.  On Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In interesting real estate news from North of the border, Canadian PM Trudeau has been under pressure about the tight housing market in Canada.  As a result, Trudeau introduced measures to tighten the criteria colleges apply to their international students starting in the fall of 2024.  Colleges that meet the higher criteria will be given priority in the processing of student visas requested by their international students.  In effect, the idea is to reduce the number of international students in Canada, thereby freeing up housing for native Canadians.

In miscellaneous news, Israel expanded its ground invasion of Gaza on Friday and the expansion of that attack continued Saturday and Sunday.  Meanwhile, on an interesting side note, since 1950, October 28 has statistically been the best single day of the year in terms of bullish market gains.  So, of course, October 28 came on a Saturday this year. (For the record, the worst market day of the year is statistically Oct 19…just nine days prior to the best day.)  Elsewhere, tonight (8 p.m. Eastern) Bloomberg reports AAPL will unveil eight M3 CPUs (built on TSM’s 3nm process fab) with eight, 12, or 16 processing cores (both efficiency and performance cores) and 10, 18, or 40 graphics processing cores.  They will also launch a 24-inch iMac using the new M3 chips and a new MacBook Pro.

So far this morning, ACDVF, BGC, CHKP, CAN, JKS, L, MCD, SOFI, and XPO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HSBC missed on revenue while beating massively on earnings (+194% quarter-on-quarter).  However, DQ and RVTY missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (ON and WDC report at 8 a.m.)  It is worth noting that SOFI raised its forward guidance.  In addition to the HSBC growth, JKS had 59% earnings growth on just 4% revenue growth.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control in the premarkets this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher at the open of the early session with the large-cap indices printing small, white-bodied candles. However, the QQQ gapped higher and the Bulls have continued to run, giving us a large, white-bodied candle with very small wicks this morning. With that said, keep in mind that all three remain well below their T-line (8ema) and also down 9%-10% from the summer highs. Once again, we have no really major economic news today and with the Fed and Q3 Payrolls later in the week, it would not be surprising for markets to drift while they wait on more news. In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are back a bit extended down below their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is also in the lower end of its oversold territory. So a pause or relief rally may well be in order. Just remember that the market can remain extended longer than we can stay solvent betting that it has to turn. Finally, the only thing we can say for sure is the Bears maintain control of the trend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Markets gapped higher Tuesday at the open (up 0.51% in the SPY, up 0.50% in the DIA, up 0.52% in the QQQ).  At that point, all three market index ETFs drifted higher until 11:00 a.m.  Then the whipsaw began with a selloff until 1 p.m. before running back up until 3:45 p.m. when we saw a mild selloff for the last 15 minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three printed some form of a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.  However, the QQQ also printed a form of a Morningstar signal on that candle.  Still, all three remain above their T-line (8ema) and SPY crossed back above the 200sma.  This happened on well-below-average volume in the QQQ and SPY and just-below-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, nine of 10 sectors were green with Utilities (+2.03%) and Communications Services (+1.97%) being way out front leading the way higher while Energy (-0.07%) was the only sector in the red.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.75%, the DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ gained 0.97%.  VXX fell 4.54% to close at 24.39 and T2122 climbed but remained in its oversold territory at 12.21.  10-year bond yields fell again to 4.819% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.91% to close at $83.86 per barrel.  So, on Tuesday the market was a whipsaw again.  There was a gap higher at the open, a morning selloff that nearly recrossed the gap, and then an afternoon rally that took us back toward the highs of the day.  With that said, once again there was no change in character the real character of the market and continued indecision among the major index ETFs.

The major economic news reported Tuesday included the Preliminary S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in a bit higher than expected at 50.0 (compared to a forecast of 49.5 and a reading 2 weeks ago of 49.8).  At the same time, the Preliminary S&P Global Services PMI came in well above anticipated at 50.9 (versus a forecast of 49.8 and even above the 2-week-old reading of 50.1).  Combined, the Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI was 51.0, which is up from the 50.2 reported two weeks ago.  It is worth noting that on all of these numbers, a value above 50.0 indicates expansion while a value less than 50 indicates contraction.  So, the global economy appears to be ever-so-slightly expanding when it was expected to be contracting.  Later, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a 2.668-million-barrel reduction in inventories (compared to a forecast of a 1.550-million-barrel increase but still only about half of the prior week’s 4.383-million-barrel drawdown).

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, GM removed all forward guidance as part of their Q3 reporting.  At the same time, GLW (who missed) cited the ongoing strike against the Big 3 automakers as part of the reason for poor results and reducing their forward guidance.  (GLW makes windshields and emission control systems for GM, F, and STLA among other automakers.)  ITW also made similar claims related to the strike impacting their future prospects.  Later the UAW announced it has struck a GM plant in Texas that builds the company’s most profitable SUVs.  (This strike doubles the cost of the strike on GM to $400 million/week.)  Later, STLA laid off 535 additional workers after their Ram truck plant was struck earlier this week. 

In stock news, CNBC reported Tuesday that AMZN is considering a move to follow WMT into the veterinary telemedicine market.  (WMT signed a deal with veterinary telemedicine provider Pawp and CNBC reports AMZN is considering the same move.) At the same time, LIAN reaped a $350 million windfall (and also voided $127.5 million in future LIAN expenses) after terminating its deal with BMY related to FDA-approved heart medication.  BMY was forced to pay that $350 for exclusive rights to the drug in Asian markets.  (LIAN shot up to close 117% higher on the day.)  Later, Reuters reported STLA has entered a deal with French nuclear fuels firm Orano to recycle EV batteries and scrap materials.  At the same time, NVDA said new US export restrictions on high-tech sales to China were sped up and went into effect Monday.  (The original scheduled was Nov. 16, but the Biden Administration wanted to head off massive last-minute sales by the tech giants.)  AMD and INTC are also impacted by the export ban to China, Iran, and Russia.  In other chip news, Reuters reported Tuesday that QCOM has outlined details of a Windows-based laptop based on a QCOM ARM-based CPU that will be released in 2024 which will include enough processing power for AI applications like summarizing emails, writing text, and generating images.  (It would be a massive leap for a laptop to have the processing power to handle that sort of AI, but they claim it will support models with 13 billion parameters.)   Elsewhere, CADE said it has sold its insurance brokerage business to AJG for $904 million. At the same time, EPOW revealed it’s in negotiations with Dutch LG Energy and the Abu Dhabi Investment Fund regarding a lithium battery material production facility in the Middle Eastern country.  The proposed project would produce 50,000 tons of anode material per year. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, ACB has settled its patent breach suit against CANSF in a confidential settlement.  Later, Reuters reported TEF and VOD drew the short straws as French telecom group Orange chose Romanian firm Digi to buy assets the company was divesting.  This selection was made to avoid EU antitrust concerns that would be raised if TEL or VOD bids were chosen.  At the same time, Reuters reports that evidence (internal safety reports) was presented in court showing that TSLA was aware of an Autopilot malfunction two years prior to a fatal crash.  The suit seeks $400 million plus punitive damages and is the first TSLA Autopilot case to make it to trial.  Elsewhere, 33 states’ Attorneys General filed suit against META and its Instagram unit for misleading the public and knowingly creating features designed to become addictive to children, causing mental health problems.  Shortly afterward, the District of Columbia and eight other states filed a separate but nearly identical suit which brought to total to 41 states and DC.  At the same time, JBLU asked the US Dept. of Transportation to ban Air France’s KLM from NY JFK airport if a Dutch government cap on flights to one of its airports takes place.  (The Dutch plan to reduce flights by 10% from 2019 levels starting in 2024 to reduce noise pollution.  This would effectively ban JBLU from that airport.)   Meanwhile, NWG faces a lawsuit from former CEO Rose after the bank canceled her previously awarded but not yet vested 2.5 million shares of stock worth millions of dollars.  In mid-afternoon, the state of CA DMV ordered GM Cruise driverless cars off state roads, saying they are a safety risk.   After the close, the SEC announced that BLK had agreed to pay $2.5 million for failing to accurately describe investments made in the entertainment industry.  Tuesday afternoon, AAPL announced they are now backing the Biden Administration’s call for a “Right to Repair” law that has been pushed by FTC Chair Khan.  (Of course, Congress determines what laws are passed.  So, publicly supporting a proposal can easily be offset by some lobbying inside the halls of Congress.)

After the close, GOOGL, CB, WIRE, FFIV, GOOG, LRN, MTDR, MSFT, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, UMBF, V, and WFRD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BYD and ENVA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, RRC, TDOC, and WM missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, CNI, CHX, CSGP, HA, and TXN all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CHX, TDOC, and TXN lowered their forward guidance.  However, LRN raised its guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  South Korea (-0.85%) and India (-0.83%) paced the losses while Thailand (+0.77%) and Japan (+0.67%) led the more numerous gainers.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape at midday with more bourses in the red than in the green.  The CAC (-0.18%), DAX (-0.09%), and FTSE (+0.06%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  In the US, at 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open leaning to the downside.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.32% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.57% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 4.863% and Oil (WTI) is off another quarter of a percent to $83.53 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Building Permits (8 a.m.), September New Home Sales (10 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell at 4:35 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALFVY, APH, ATLKY, ADP, AVY, BA, BOKF, CME, CSTM, EVR, FTV, GD, GBX, GPI, HES, HLT, LTH, LAD, MHO, MCO, MSM, EDU, NSC, ODFL, OMF, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, RDUS, ROP, R, SLGN, TMUS, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, WNC, and WAB.  Then, after the close, AEM, ALGN, ALSN, AMP, NLY, AR, ATR, ASGN, AVB, AGR, BKR, BHE, CACI, CP, CLS, CCS, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CYH, EW, ESI, EQT, EQIX, EG, FLEX, FLS, FBIN, GL, GGG, ICLR, IEX, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, LSTR, MAT, META, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NBR, NXT, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, RJF, ROL, SEIC, NOW, STC, SUI, TER, TNET, TROX, URI, UHS, VMI, VICI, WCN, WFG, WU, and WHR report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get September Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q3 GDP, Preliminary Q3 GDP Price Index, September Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. Retail Inventories, Sept. Pending Home Sales, and we hear from Fed member Waller.  Finally, on Friday, Sept. PCE Price Index, Sept. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, AOS, MO, AMT, AIT, ARCH, AMBP, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, BG, CRS, CARR, CX, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CFR, EXP, EME, FAF, FCNCA, FSV, ULCC, FCN, HOG, HAS, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KVUE, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LEA, LII, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MAS, MA, MRK, NYCB, NEM, NOC, ORI, OSK, PATK, BTU, PCG, BPOP, RS, RCL, STX, SAH, LUV, STM, FTI, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, UPS, VLO, VLY, VC, VMC, GWW, WST, WEX, WTW, AB, AMZN, AJG, BIO, SAM, COF, CSL, CC, CMG, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EHC, ENPH, ERIE, FE, F, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, NOV, OLN, PFG, RSG, RMD, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TEX, TXRH, X, VALE, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABBV, AER, ARLP, AON, ARCB, AN, AVTR, BAH, CBRE, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CL, DAN, EQNR, XOM, FMX, FTS, GNTX, IMO, LECO, LYB, NWL, NVT, PSX, POR, SAIA, SNY, SWK, TROW, and XEL.

In US Congressional news, the circus continued Tuesday.  After four more ballots, the House GOP Caucus selected Rep. Emmer as its nominee to be Speaker.  Emmer then requested a secret ballot to see how many would actually vote for him.  He lost 26 of the extreme MAGA members, putting him in roughly the same boat as McCarthy was in three weeks ago.  So, after a few hours of attempting to whip GOP votes, he too withdrew himself from consideration.  This put the GOP back in the same boat they’ve been in since the MAGA coup against McCarthy.  After a few more hours of spit-balling potential nominees, by mid-evening, some GOP members were floating a “Tag-Team of McCarthy-Jordan as joint-Speaker.”   However, Constitutionally, the job is singular (not a two-person job) including only one person being second in line of Presidential succession.  At the same time, Democrats sat back and reveled in the schadenfreude as the country continued to be a laughing stock to the world and no Congressional business even gets attempted.  (It is apparently beyond the pale for Democrats to approach moderate Republicans saying they’d back one of them OR for moderate Republicans to approach Democrats offering to back Jeffries, since the GOP still has the votes if he tries to get out of line)  In short, your tribe is still more important than your party and your party is still more important than the country in D.C.)  Regardless, late Tuesday night, the GOP decided to nominate Rep. Johnson (of LA) as Speaker and take his name to the floor for a vote.  The GOP did take a roll call vote in private on how many of their caucus would support the fifth choice for the job, but by that point of the night, more than 20 of their caucus had already gone home. So, the drama remains as to whether GOP Choice number five will can get elected Speaker, and if so whether he will have enough support to work around the extremists in his own party (let alone dealing with Representatives across the aisle.

In miscellaneous earnings news, it’s interesting that even though GOOGL posted strong earnings after the close, beating on both lines and showing 11% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, post-market traders jumped on the fact its cloud computing unit reported $20 million lower-than-expected revenue. (Bear in mind that this sub-unit missed by $20 million on a report of almost $77 billion in total revenue. Talk about splitting hairs.) So, despite a strong report, GOOGL stock was down as much as 6.5% in after-market trading on their beats.

So far this morning, ATLKY, ADP, CME, GD, GPI, HLT, MCO, MSM, NAVI, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, PRG, ROP, TMUS, TMHC, TELNY, TNL, UMC, and WAB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALFVY, AVY, CSTM, OC, SLGN, TDY, TMO, VRT, and WNC all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, EVR, GBX, LAD, and PAG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, LTH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AVY, LTH, EDU, SLGN, and TDY lowered their forward guidance.  At the same time, PRG, ROP, TMHC, VRT, and WAB all raised their guidance.

In mortgage news, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reports mortgage loan applications fell just 1% last week, even as the rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan shot up from 7.70% to 7.90% on average.  Refinancing loan applications increase 2% from the previous week while new home purchase loan applications fell 2%.  MBA noted that the percentage of loans sought which were adjustable-rate increased to 9.5%.  (The average 5/1 ARM loan was at a 6.99% rate for the week, skyrocketing from 6.52% the week prior.)

With that background, it looks like markets are undecided again this morning. All three major index ETFs are printing small, white-bodied, Spinning Top type candles in the premarket. However, the DIA gapped up a bit before forming its Spinning Top while the SPY and QQQ gapped down before forming their own. With that said, keep in mind that all three remain well below their T-line (8ema) and the SPY is just below its 200sma. Once again, we have no really major economic news today and Fed Chair Powell does not speak until after hte close. So, beware of more whipsaw and don’t be surprised if intraday moves are reversed in just a short period. (There does not seem to be strong momentum from either side.) In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are back to being near their T-line (8ema) and none are extended. The T2122 indicator does remain in the middle of its oversold territory, but it has moved up off the very bottom. So, we may need a little more pause or bounce to relieve pressure, but we are not overly stretched. The only thing we can say for sure is the Bears maintain control of trend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday brought us a gap lower at the open (down 0.38% in the SPY, down 0.38% in the DIA, and 0.39% in the QQQ).  This was followed by 15 minutes of follow-through by the Bears in all three major index ETFs.  However, then the Bulls said “enough” and rallied all three until 1 p.m.  Then it was the Bears’ turn to say “Not so fast, my friend” to lead a selloff the rest of the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles across the board.  All three of the major index ETFs flirted with printing a Piercing Arrow candle before melting back.  The SPY printed a white-bodied Doji-type candle.  At the same time, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top candle, and the DIA remained the weakest of the three, printing a black-bodied Inverted Hammer candle. All three remain well below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on just about average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (+0.04) being the only sector to (barely) remain in the green.  Meanwhile, Energy (-1.44%) was way out front leading the other sectors lower.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.17% (closing in its opening gap), the DIA lost 0.56% (closing below its opening gap), and QQQ gained 0.30% (closing above its gap down).  VXX fell 3.48% to close at 25.54 and T2122 climbed slightly but remained at the bottom of its oversold territory at 1.89.  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 4.85% (after being above 5.021% early in the day) while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.27% to close at $86.08 per barrel.  So, on Monday the market was a whipsaw.  There was a gap lower at the open, a strong morning rally until 1 p.m., and then a strong selloff the rest of the day.  With that said, there was no change in character for the market and not much change in the major index ETFs.

There was no economic news reported Monday.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, the UAW and defense contractor GD reached a tentative labor contract Monday. This deal avoided a strike of GD. In another aside, metal workers in Brazil announced they will strike GM next Monday.  This strike by 4,000 workers comes after 1,200 of their fellow workers were laid off by GM.  (That plant makes engines and gearboxes for S-10 pickup trucks.)  Later, the UAW added roughly 6,800 more STLA workers to the strike, all located at the STLA Ram full-sized pickup plant in a Detroit suburb.  UAW President Fain said STLA’s offer is the weakest among the big three in terms of wage progression (time in a pay tier), temp worker pay, cost of living adjustments, etc.  (UAW negotiators told CNBC that two major issues that STLA has not addressed at all is their discussion to move Ram production from the US to Mexico and the closing of an IL plant earlier this year.)  This was the first expansion of the strike in two weeks.  STLA said it was “outraged that the UAW has chosen to expand its strike action against the company” and going on to cite its recent improved offer.  (Industry analysts say all three of the automakers have roughly 100 days of inventory of their best-selling pickup trucks.)  It is worth noting that GM reported a $3.1 billion quarterly profit and also removed its forward guidance altogether ahead of impacts from the strike.

In stock news, LICY plummeted Monday to close down almost 46% after the company suspended construction of its hub in Rochester, NY.  At the same time, FSR said it is significantly cutting the price of its Ocean Extreme SUS.  The announced price cut is 11% ($7,500).  Elsewhere, MSFT announced it will spend $3.2 billion in Australia to expand its AI and cloud computing capacity in that country.  The move is widely seen as a carrot that can be taken back ahead of Australia’s coming AI regulation (which is now in the public comment period).  The announcement said MSFT will train 300k Australians in skills needed to succeed in a digital economy.  At the same time, STLA unveiled 12 “refreshed” electric vans (small, mid-sized, and large).  Sales of these 12 will largely be in Europe where stricter emission laws make them more attractive.  The revised designs will go on sale in mid-2024.  Later, AAPL ramped up its late-to-the-party AI efforts by investing $1 billion to integrate AI tools in Siri, Apple Music, and other programs.  Meanwhile, LMT announced it has ended its partnership with EADSY (Airbus) which was part of the defense contractor’s bid for the project to upgrade the US Air Force’s KC-135 tanker fleet.  This may have been due to the Air Force reducing the project size from 140-160 tankers to just 75.  Regardless, LMT dropped its bid for the project.  Later, Reuters reported that NVDA is in the early stages of developing a line of ARM-based CPUs compatible with MSFT Windows.  (AMD is also developing an ARM-based processor line.)  QCOM already offers an AMR-based chip for laptop products.  (ARM-based chips are much more power-efficient.)  The NVDA move was unknown and all three pose threats to INTC, which along with AMD have been the kings of x86-based CPUs for decades.  (INTC fell 3% on the news and NVDA popped by about the same amount.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that IFF is working with advisors on the potential sale of its pharmaceutical unit in a deal expected to new in the area of $3.5 billion.  After the close, Reuters reported that on Sunday an ALK plane bound for San Francisco had to make an emergency diversion to Portland OR.  The cause of the diversion was that an off-duty pilot, riding back to his home airport on a cockpit jump seat, attempted to disable the jet’s engines mid-flight.  That pilot was subdued and then arrested in Portland, booked on 83 counts of attempted murder. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, TLSA confirmed that it is under investigation by the Dept. of Justice and has received subpoenas related to benefits paid to/for CEO Musk, marketing claims on vehicle range, and personnel decisions.  Elsewhere, the FDA requested more efficacy data from REGN and SNY related to their joint product called Dupixent.  (The FDA previously reject an initial application, but the drug companies feel the drug has shown significant benefits and are supplying the requested additional data.)  Later, WFC lost a $310 bond deal (was replaced by RJF) for a school district as the state of TX is scrutinizing the bank over its environmental policies.  (The oil and gas-controlled state wants to punish any banks that back climate initiatives such has a “Net Zero Banking Alliance.”)  JPM and BAC are also under investigation by the TX Attorney General (formerly impeached Paxton) for the same reasons.  At the same time, the US State Dept. approved the sale of missile systems from LMT, NOC, and RTX to the UK, Finland, and Lithuania.  The deal pricing were not detailed, but it will be in the $2+ billion region.  Later, CPB announced its $2.33 billion acquisition of private Sovos Brands has been delayed until 2024 after the FTC asked for more details on the deal.  The company said it still expects to close the deal in mid-2024 after the FTC review is complete.  Also after the close, INDV agreed to pay $385 million to settle lawsuits from US drug wholesales that alleged the company had suppressed generic competition to its Suboxone opioid drug.  Finally, JPM’s recent $290 million settlement of a class-action suit related to the bank’s alleged financing of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking was challenged Monday evening.  The Attorneys General of 16 states plus the District of Columbia jointly objected to the settlement which contained language saying the settlement money would be refunded to the bank if any sovereign or government sought damages arising from the sex trafficking of Epstein or his associates.  This was obviously intended to put the state’s in a position of deciding between hurting the victims who were paid $290 million under the settlement and suing the bank.

After the close, BRO, CDNS, CLF, CR, MEDP, and SSD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ARE, PKG, TBI, and WRB all missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, HRI and TFII both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AAN and CCK missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AAN, CDNS, CCK, and TBI all lowered their forward guidance.  However, ARE, CR, MEDP, and PKG all raised guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  India (-1.34%) and Hong Kong (-1.05%) paced the losses while South Korea (+1.12%) and Singapore (+1.00%) led the more plentiful gainers.  In Europe, we see an even more pronounced lean toward the green at midday.  Four of the bourses are barely in the red (led by the FTSE, -0.02%) while the CAC (+0.70%) and DAX (+0.30%) lead most of the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a solidly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.44% open, the SPY is implying a +0.55% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.65% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are moving back up to 4.867% and Oil (WTI) is down to $85.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include MMM, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, BCS, CNC, KO, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FI, FELE, GTX, GE, GM, HAL, HCA, HRI, ITW, IVZ, KMB, NEE, NHYDY, NVS, NUE, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, DGX, RTX, SHW, SPOT, SYF, TECK, TRU, VZ, and XRX.  Then, after the close, GOOGL, BYD, CNI, CHX, CB, CSGP, ENVA, FFIV, GOOG, HA, MTDR, MSFT, RRC, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, V, WFRD, and WM report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Building Permits, New Home Sales, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell.  On Thursday, we get September Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q3 GDP, Preliminary Q3 GDP Price Index, September Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. Retail Inventories, Sept. Pending Home Sales, and we hear from Fed member Waller.  Finally, on Friday, Sept. PCE Price Index, Sept. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from ALFVY, APH, ATLKY, ADP, AVY, BA, BOKF, CME, CSTM, EVR, FTV, GD, GBX, GPI, HES, HLT, LTH, LAD, MHO, MCO, MSM, EDU, NSC, ODFL, OMF, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, RDUS, ROP, R, SLGN, TMUS, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, WNC, WAB, AEM, ALGN, ALSN, AMP, NLY, AR, ATR, ASGN, AVB, AGR, BKR, BHE, CACI, CP, CLS, CCS, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CYH, EW, ESI, EQT, EQIX, EG, FLEX, FLS, FBIN, GL, GGG, ICLR, IEX, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, LSTR, MAT, META, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NBR, NXT, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, RJF, ROL, SEIC, NOW, STC, SUI, TER, TNET, TROX, URI, UHS, VMI, VICI, WCN, WFG, WU, and WHR.  On Thursday, AOS, MO, AMT, AIT, ARCH, AMBP, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, BG, CRS, CARR, CX, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CFR, EXP, EME, FAF, FCNCA, FSV, ULCC, FCN, HOG, HAS, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KVUE, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LEA, LII, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MAS, MA, MRK, NYCB, NEM, NOC, ORI, OSK, PATK, BTU, PCG, BPOP, RS, RCL, STX, SAH, LUV, STM, FTI, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, UPS, VLO, VLY, VC, VMC, GWW, WST, WEX, WTW, AB, AMZN, AJG, BIO, SAM, COF, CSL, CC, CMG, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EHC, ENPH, ERIE, FE, F, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, NOV, OLN, PFG, RSG, RMD, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TEX, TXRH, X, VALE, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABBV, AER, ARLP, AON, ARCB, AN, AVTR, BAH, CBRE, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CL, DAN, EQNR, XOM, FMX, FTS, GNTX, IMO, LECO, LYB, NWL, NVT, PSX, POR, SAIA, SNY, SWK, TROW, and XEL.

So far this morning, MMM, ARCC, CNC, KO, DHR, DOW, GE, GM, FI, PNR, DGX, RTX, SHW, SPOT, and SYF all beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADM, BCS, DOV, GTX, HAL, KMB, NHYDY, NVS, PHM, VZ, and XRX all reported missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, HCA, IVZ, and PACW all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ABG, GLW, PII, TECK, and TRU all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GM removed its forward guidance altogether.  At the same time, MMM, AWI, CNC, KO, DHR, FI, and SHW all raised their forward guidance.  However, GLW, DOV, and TRU also lowered their guidance.

In hedge fund news, fund manager Bill Ackman announced Monday that his fund had covered its months-long short on US Treasury Bonds.  Ackman said there is too much risk in the world and he now expects a significant flight to the safety of bonds to bid up their price.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that both JPM and GS have told them that major hedge funds have trimmed their positions in the mega-cap tech giants ahead of earnings.  The article specifically cited META, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA as the targets of the position trimming.

In miscellaneous news, in a hopeful sign of progress in the negotiations with Hamas, the group released two more hostages Monday.  Both were elderly women.  However, at the same time, Israel traded artillery fire with Iran-backed Hezbollah across the Irael-Lebanon border.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that China is set to approve $137 billion in additional sovereign debt Tuesday to raise money for more infrastructure spending and other economic stimulus plans.  Finally, one of the nine GOP House Speaker candidates dropped out of the race after delivering his speech to the GOP Caucus on Monday.  The plan is for the GOP to decide on their favorite candidate today and maybe even get to a floor vote on the position later.  However, the dysfunction has not been overcome with arguments over secret versus public ballots in the caucus as well as whether or not to proceed to another floor vote if the GOP vote is not at least 217 in favor of one candidate.  There is also the matter of half the candidates at least publicly being Trump-aligned and denying the results of the last election. 

In late-breaking news, French President Macron proposed an international coalition to fight ISIS (which Israel and the US have labeled Hamas) during a trip to Israel.  In “It’s not just you who makes bad trades” news, the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world (I had no idea it was Norway), the Norwegian Government Pension Fund said it lost $34 billion in Q3.  (For reference, that fund has $1.4 trillion in assets.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control of the premarket. All three of the major index ETFs opened higher, have modest lower wicks, and are giving us white-bodied candles that are near their highs of the early session. These are not indecisive candles and indicate a little momentum will be carried into the open, presumably based on good earnings from major players. With that said, it is important to remember that the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are remain well below their T-line (8ema) and even the short-term trend of the last few days has not been completely broken. Again, we have no really major economic news today. So, beware of volatility and don’t be surprised if we wobble into some over-extension relief without really changing anything in the chart. In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are starting to get stretched out below the T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator also remains deep in the bottom of its oversold territory. So, we need a pause or bounce to relieve pressure even if the Bears maintain control. Just remember that the market can stay over-extended a lot longer than we can stay solvent being right too early. So, don’t go betting on “we’re due.”

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets sold off in the morning Friday and then meandered sideways the rest of the day.  SPY opened down 0.13%, DIA opened 0.23% lower, and QQQ opened down 0.18%.  Then, all three major index ETFs ground sideways for 30 minutes.  However, at 10 a.m., DIA sold off sharply for 15 minutes but the SPY and QQQ sold off hard until 11 a.m. and neither reached their low until 11:35 a.m.  From there, all three drifted sideways with first a slight bullish trend until 1:20 p.m. and then sideways with a slight bearish trend the rest of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with modest upper wicks and very small, if any lower wicks.  The SPY is at the breakout of a “Dreaded h” pattern and also crossed down through its 200sma.  DIA is still in the downswing of its own Dreaded h and QQQ is sitting at the breakdown of a major support level.  This happened with above-average volume in the SPY, average volume in the DIA, and a bit less-than-average volume in the QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.75%) out front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Healthcare (-0.47%) held up better than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 1.23%, the DIA lost 0.88%, and QQQ lost 1.49%.  VXX gained 0.61% to close at 26.46 and T2122 dropped even further into the bottom of its oversold territory at 1.37.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.914% while Oil (WTI) fell slightly to close at $89.02 per barrel.  So, on Friday we had a very volatile market.  There is no way to know for sure what the cause behind the morning volatility or the afternoon selloff was.  However, Fed Chair Powell spoke at noon, and it was also midday when the latest stage of the House Republican fiasco began. There was also news out of the Middle East midday as the Israeli Defense Minister had reportedly green-lighted a ground invasion of Gaza and a US Destroyer intercepted drones/missiles launched by the Yemeni Houthi (backed by Iran).

The economic news reported Friday was limited to the September Federal Budget Balance which came in far, far worse than expected at a deficit of $171.0 billion (compared to a forecast of a $78.6 billion deficit and even the August number of an $89.0 billion deficit).  Elsewhere, Bloomberg released its monthly survey of economists on Friday.  The October survey indicates an increased average estimate for Q3 GDP of 3.5% (up from the 3.0% estimate in September).

In Fed speak news, Cleveland Fed President Mester indicated Friday that the Fed is at or at least very near its peak tightening.  Mester said, “Regardless of the decision made at our next meeting, if the economy evolves as anticipated, in my view, we are likely near or at a holding point on the funds rate.”   However, she said there is still plenty of room for the Fed to keep tightening by cutting its balance sheet, saying “There’s still more runway there” to lower the size of the Fed’s holdings and this process could play out over the next year and a half to two years.”  Mester also made it clear that rate hikes and QT are separate issues, saying “we can have the balance sheet reduction continue independently of federal funds rate moves.”

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, for the second time in a week, STLA has pulled out of a major auto show.  The company cited an effort to reduce costs in the midst of the UAW strike.  STLA also announced it would lay off an additional 100 workers due to the strike.  Elsewhere, GM announced it increased its proposed wage increases to match the 23% increase offered by F, as well as the additional benefits enhancements.  At the same time, UAW President Fain cited progress in his weekly update.  He noted that he had received improved offers from GM and STLA.  Fain said that a deal is close, but emphasized that the crucial part of any negotiation is the final push before the deal, which he means the need to remain on strike.  He announced no new additions to the strike (facilities or workers).  However, as usual, Fain threatened wider strikes if even better offers are not delivered by the companies.  The strike is now 5-weeks old and some analysts wondered aloud whether Fain was hoping the upcoming earnings reports from GM and F might give those companies a reason to take one more step in order to report a tentative deal along with their earnings. (It would make the earnings call questions easier to address.)

In stock news, TM extended its temporary partial production shutdown until Monday following a fire at a major supplier in Japan.  Elsewhere, SAVE canceled 11% of its flights Friday in order to do inspections for so-called “undocumented parts.”  The outage is expected to last at least several days since many of the parts needing inspection are in the center of jet engines. Later, ADIL shares plummeted (closing down 24%) following its announcement of the sale of 1.4 million shares to raise cash.  At the same time, BMY said its experimental renal cancer drug has achieved both primary and secondary targets in a Phase III study.  In the auto industry, VLKAF (Volkswagen) cut its 2023 profit margin outlook, citing failures in its raw materials hedging.  At the same time, a rail union (Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen) initiated a safety program with NSC (following that railroad’s multiple safety failures this year) and also ratified a sick leave agreement with CSX.  After the close, ORCL announced a strategic partnership with NVDA saying it has implemented the NVDA AI stack into its cloud marketplace.  (ORCL sells AI processing via the cloud as a service to businesses.)  At the same time, OKTA announced it had suffered a security breach via a stolen credential.  (OKTA sells cloud software infrastructure intended to provide security authentication…so security breaches are not exactly good for business.)  As a result of rumors and leaks of this news, OKTA was down 11.57% Friday (over 9% of the loss came after 2:40 p.m.).

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the Fed, FDIC, and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency extended the deadline for comments (from the big banks basically) about why banks should not face stricter capital rules and increased data collection on the banks’ financial stability.  The new deadline for comment is Jan. 16.  Later, a US District Judge gave final approval of a $75 million settlement reached by DB with various victims of Jeffrey Epstein who had accused the bank of facilitating the late financier’s sex trafficking.  Later, Reuters reported that the EU antitrust regulators have resumed their investigation of ABDA (over its $20 billion bid to buy Figma) on Friday.  This comes after the agency had halted its investigation while awaiting further data from ADBE.  A decision on the deal is due by Feb 5.  Later the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Biden Administration, throwing out lower court rulings that were intended to limit the administration’s ability to contact social media companies to have misinformation and disinformation moderated by META, GOOGL, AAPL, and Twitter (now X) as well as the non-mainstream platforms.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board again.  Thailand (-1.66%), Shenzhen (-1.51%), and Shanghai (-1.47%) led the region lower but the move was broad-based.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only Greece (+0.26%) in the green.  The DAX (-0.80%), CAC (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.54%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, at 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a move lower to start the week.  The DIA implies a -0.54% open, the SPY is implying a -0.50% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.58% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up again, teasing 5% at 4.999% while Oil (WTI) is down 0.77% to $87.40 per barrel.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include PHG and SDVKY.  Then, after the close, AAN, ARE, BRO, CDNS, CLF, CR, CCK, LOGI, MEDP, PKG, SSD, TFII, TBI, and WRB report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then Wednesday, Building Permits, New Home Sales, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell.  On Thursday, we get September Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q3 GDP, Preliminary Q3 GDP Price Index, September Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Sept. Retail Inventories, Sept. Pending Home Sales, and we hear from Fed member Waller.  Finally, on Friday, Sept. PCE Price Index, Sept. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, MMM, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, BCS, CNC, KO, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FI, FELE, GTX, GE, GM, HAL, HCA, HRI, ITW, IVZ, KMB, NEE, NHYDY, NVS, NUE, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, DGX, RTX, SHW, SPOT, SYF, TECK, TRU, VZ, XRX, GOOGL, BYD, CNI, CHX, CB, CSGP, ENVA, FFIV, GOOG, HA, MTDR, MSFT, RRC, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, V, WFRD, and WM report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from ALFVY, APH, ATLKY, ADP, AVY, BA, BOKF, CME, CSTM, EVR, FTV, GD, GBX, GPI, HES, HLT, LTH, LAD, MHO, MCO, MSM, EDU, NSC, ODFL, OMF, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, RDUS, ROP, R, SLGN, TMUS, TMHC, TDY, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, WNC, WAB, AEM, ALGN, ALSN, AMP, NLY, AR, ATR, ASGN, AVB, AGR, BKR, BHE, CACI, CP, CLS, CCS, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CYH, EW, ESI, EQT, EQIX, EG, FLEX, FLS, FBIN, GL, GGG, ICLR, IEX, IBM, INVH, KALU, KLAC, LSTR, MAT, META, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NBR, NXT, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, RJF, ROL, SEIC, NOW, STC, SUI, TER, TNET, TROX, URI, UHS, VMI, VICI, WCN, WFG, WU, and WHR.  On Thursday, AOS, MO, AMT, AIT, ARCH, AMBP, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, BG, CRS, CARR, CX, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CFR, EXP, EME, FAF, FCNCA, FSV, ULCC, FCN, HOG, HAS, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KVUE, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LEA, LII, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MAS, MA, MRK, NYCB, NEM, NOC, ORI, OSK, PATK, BTU, PCG, BPOP, RS, RCL, STX, SAH, LUV, STM, FTI, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, UPS, VLO, VLY, VC, VMC, GWW, WST, WEX, WTW, AB, AMZN, AJG, BIO, SAM, COF, CSL, CC, CMG, CINF, COLM, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EHC, ENPH, ERIE, FE, F, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, LHX, LPLA, MTX, NOV, OLN, PFG, RSG, RMD, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TEX, TXRH, X, VALE, WY, and WKC report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ABBV, AER, ARLP, AON, ARCB, AN, AVTR, BAH, CBRE, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CL, DAN, EQNR, XOM, FMX, FTS, GNTX, IMO, LECO, LYB, NWL, NVT, PSX, POR, SAIA, SNY, SWK, TROW, and XEL.

In US Congressional news, I’m sure you heard that Rep. Jordan failed in what was a surprise third vote in his try to become Speaker of the House on Friday.  Just as had happened in the second vote, Jorden got less support, losing 4 more GOP votes than he had gotten in the second vote.  Speaker Pro Tempore adjourned Congress for a long weekend immediately after the vote.  Following adjournment, the GOP Caucus held a secret ballot to confirm their support of Jordan’s candidacy and Jordan got the backing of only 86 of the 221 Republicans.  (So, in the space of an hour, Jordan had gone from 194 public votes to 86 private ones.) He was dropped as the GOP Speaker Nominee (and withdrew his candidacy).  As of Sunday, there were nine sitting GOP Reps. that had filed officially to throw their hat into the ring for the job.  The GOP plans to hear speeches from the nine on Monday and take their next GOP-only vote to choose one on Tuesday.  Sadly, as of Sunday night, the Democrats had not shown enough leadership to publicly throw their support behind one of the nine either. Had they done so, they would have made it easier on moderate Republicans to elect a GOP Speaker with bipartisan support. That would have meant the Speaker was much less indebted to extremist minorities on either side.  So, we continue down the partisan track, and assuming the GOP can choose their candidate Tuesday morning, the whole House will resume voting for the new Speaker later Tuesday.  That will be exactly 24 calendar days and 9 scheduled House working days before another government shutdown ensues.

In miscellaneous news, the Biden Administration made a formal request for $105 billion of funding for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and US border security. The packaging includes $61 billion for Ukraine ($50 billion of which will actually go to US defense contractors), $14.3 billion for Israel (some of which will also go for US-built missile systems), a bit more than $9 billion for humanitarian aid, $6.4 billion for border operations, $1.2 billion for fighting counterfeit fentanyl entering the country, and $2 billion for Taiwan.

In geopolitical news, two American hostages were released by Hamas on Friday after negotiations made through the UAE.  In other Middle East news, a US Destroyer shot down missiles and drones launched by Iran-backed, Yemeni Houthi rebels that were headed toward Israel.  Elsewhere, ship tracking data has identified one Russian and one Chinese ship that were in the locations of pipeline and telecom cable that were destroyed recently (running between Finland and Estonia).  Sweden said the same two ships were at the location of a telecom cable running between Stockholm and Estonia that was damaged about a day prior to the Finnish damage.  Meanwhile, flying under the radar last week, hours after Russia revoked its ban on nuclear testing, the Biden Administration showed its own ability to rattle sabers by conducting a large high-explosive (non-nuclear) test at US nuclear test site.  The Dept. of Energy said the test was intended to validate new predictive models for the chemicals and radioisotopes used in the blast.  (This will reportedly improve the US ability to detect atomic blasts in other countries.)

In late-breaking news, Japan announced it has launched an antitrust investigation of GOOGL related to mobile phone search monopoly.  Third-party opinions on the topic are to be submitted by November 22.  Elsewhere, CVX announced early today that it has agreed to buy HES for $53 billion in an all-stock deal.  This comes not long after XOM bought PXD as huge consolidation in the US Oil space continues.  (Don’t be surprised if the pair of deals draw antitrust scrutiny since the number 1 (XOM) and number 2 (CVX) oil producers gobbling up significant rivals.  CVX said that after the deal closes, it intends to increase its share repurchase program by another $2.5 billion (on top of the existing $20 billion buyback plan).

With that background, it looks like the bears continue to have control in the premarket. However, all three of the major index ETFs are up off their lows of the early session. It is also worth noting that DIA and QQQ are printing indecisive premarket candles, with more wick than body and wick on both sides. Still, they are all black-bodied candles. So, the market leans bearish early with all three major index ETFs below their T-line (8ema). With no economic news on tap today and more earnings not really coming until after the close, we might get a true read on relative strength to start the week. Trading should be a little less volatile unless we get geopolitical news of some sort. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are starting to get stretched out below the T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is now also deep in the bottom of its oversold territory. So, we need a pause or bounce to relieve pressure even if the Bears maintain control. Just remember that the market can stay over-extended a lot longer than we can stay solvent being right too early. So, don’t go betting on “we’re due.”

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a volatile day in the morning and the Bear’s market in the afternoon.  The SPY “gapped” up 0.16%, the DIA opened dead flat, and the QQQ gapped up 0.43%.  From there, all three major index ETFs traded sideways for the first 45 minutes, sold off the next hour, and rallied until 12:25 p.m.  Then a short, sharp selloff lasted 15 minutes, reaching new lows for all three major index ETFs.  This was followed by an equally sharp rally to the highs of the day by 1:10 p.m.  However, that was when the Bears took over and sold the market the rest of the day, closing not far off the lows. This action gave us large-body, black candles with larger upper wicks and smaller lower wicks.  All three of those major index ETFs retested and failed their T-line (8ema) from below, while DIA retested and failed its 200sma and QQQ came very close to testing and failing its 50sma.  This all happened on heavier-than-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-1.46%) out front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Energy (-0.29%) held up better than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.88%, the DIA lost 0.75%, and QQQ lost 0.94%.  VXX gained 4.95% to close at 26.30 and T2122 dropped down further into (into the bottom of) its oversold territory at 5.24. 10-year bond yields spiked yet again to 4.994% while Oil (WTI) popped again by 2.42% to close at $90.46 per barrel.  So, on Thursday we had a very volatile market.  There is no way to know for sure the cause of the morning volatility or the afternoon selloff.  However, Fed Chair Powell spoke at noon, it was also midday when Rep. Jordan gave up on having a vote today and decided to back giving more power to appointed Speaker Pro Tempore McHenry (while saying he is still running for the job but would back McHenry for few months).  There was also news out of the Middle East midday as the Israeli Defense Minister reportedly green-lighted the expected ground invasion of Gaza and a US Destroyer intercepted drones/missiles launched by the Yemeni Houthis (backed by Iran) toward Israel.

The economic news reported Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims that came in better than expected at 198k (compared to a forecast of 212k and a previous week’s value of 211k).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in weaker than anticipated at -9.0 (versus a forecast of -6.4 but better than the September reading of -13.5).  For reference, a value above zero means improving conditions, and below zero means deteriorating conditions.  Later, September Existing Home Sales (month-on-month) came in better than expected at 3.96 million (compared to a forecast of 3.89 million but down from the August value of 4.04 million). This amounts to a 2.0% decline month-on-month, which is a bit worse than the August decline from July which was -0.7%.  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet continued to show it slow and steady decline, as it moved from $7.952 trillion to $7.933 trillion.

In Fed speak news, as mentioned, Fed Chair Powell gave a speech to the Economic Club of NY.  In the speech, he said pretty much what was anticipated.  Powell said inflation remains too high, but progress has been made and the economy remains strong, especially in the labor market (which is also a Fed mandate).  However, his primary tone was to expect rates higher for longer…and the process will be long.  His notable quotes included “Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take”, “While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent”, “Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both of our dual mandate goals —maximum employment and stable prices,” and “Does it feel like policy is too tight right now? I would have to say no.”  Then after hours, Dallas Fed President Logan said “We have some time” to see data before deciding on the next rate move.  She indicated the Fed can be deliberate and hinted at continuing the rate pause.  She noted that tightening monetary conditions (caused by rising bond yields) will help slow economic growth, curbing inflation and giving the FOMC the slack needed to wait.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, F laid off another 150 employees at one of its MI plants Thursday, again citing the UAW strike as the reason.  Later, UAW workers in AL ratified a deal with MBGAF (Mercedes) supplier ZF and ended their strike with that supplier.  Elsewhere, in tangentially related news, Reuters reported Thursday that UNP is seeking to renegotiate contracts with its customers, citing the impact of the UAW strike on costs.  However, the primary driver behind the move appears to be inflation impacts, with the UAW strike being a convenient reason to cite for needing renegotiations. 

In stock news, on Thursday, TSLA joined GM and F in slowing its expansion of EV production capacity.  TSLA CEO Musk said, “People hesitate to buy a new car if there’s uncertainty in the economy.”  Later, Reuters reported that Japan’s JFE Steel is in talks to buy a stake in TECK or at least TECK’s metallurgical coal unit.  At the same time, NOK announced it plans to cut 14,000 jobs between now and 2026.  Elsewhere, DG announced the reinstatement of former CEO Vasos (who had left in 2022).  Later, ENPH announced the availability of its EV chargers throughout North America.  (The lack of immediate availability has been a drag in charger installations in 2023.)  By mid-afternoon, STLA announced a deal to do an asset transfer deal with China’s Dongfeng Motor Group. The deal will increase STLA exports, allowing STLA to further penetrate the Chinese markets.  Dongfeng will get STLA land rights and buildings in the swap.  After the close, CVS removed many common decongestants (recently found ineffective by studies) from store shelves and discontinued their sale. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the EPA ordered NSC to do more cleanup in East Palestine OH (site of their Feb. derailment and chemical spill).  At the same time, AMZN asked a US District Court to dismiss the FTC lawsuit, claiming the FTC was using poorly defined concepts and terms to punish the company.  (The terms mentioned were “manipulative” or “deceptive.”)  Later, WBA settled a class action suit brought by investors in now-bankrupt RAD for $192 million.  (The investors claimed WBA had misled them about WBA’s interest in buying RAD back in 2017.)  Meanwhile, PFE won unconditional approval for its acquisition of SGEN from EU antitrust regulators.  In the early afternoon, MO filed suit against 34 vape manufacturers, seeking an injunction as it claimed they violated state and federal laws to “illegally compete” with MO’s NJOY vape unit.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that the FDIC and Fed are considering rules to curb the system leverage by regulating how banks can trade with hedge funds.  Currently, hedge funds are allowed to employ significant leverage by betting on the spread between Bond futures and the cash market price of the same vehicle with banks.  The FDIC and Fed can only regulate the banks but this new rule on banks would be a means of curbing systemic risks posed by hedge funds by denying them the bank trading partners.  Elsewhere, on Thursday the CFPB proposed new rules that would make it easier for consumers to transfer their data between financial service providers.  The “open banking draft” rule is intended to supercharge competition in the financial services sector by giving customers the ability to easily walk away from bad service.  The rules should be finalized in 2024.  (The EU, UK, and others already have such rules.)

After the close, AMTB, ASB, OZK, CSX, KNX, and WAL all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ISRG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that the regional banks continued their massive revenue growth quarter-on-quarter (ASB +49.2%, OZK +67.8%, WAL +44.3% just to name three.)

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  South Korea (-1.69%) Thailand (-1.66%), and New Zealand (-1.27%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same thing taking shape at midday.  The DAX (-1.24%), CAC (-1.16%), and FTSE (-0.82%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day (relative to the rest of the globe).  The DIA implies a -0.22% open, the SPY is implying a -0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.28% open at this hour.  Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are “down” to 4.933% and Oil (WTI) is up modestly to $90.60 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday. However, again we hear from Fed member Harker (9 a.m.) and Mester (12:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AXP, ALV, CMA, EEFT, HBAN, IPG, RF, and SLB.

So far this morning, CMA, EEFT, HBAN, and TLSNY all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AXP and SLB have missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ALV, IPG, and RF beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  It is worth noting that the banks continue to post significant quarter-on-quarter revenue growth.  For example, CMA (+36.0%), HBAN (+35.2%), and RF (+19.7%).

In US Congressional news, Rep. Jordan failed to garner any more support for his bid to become Speaker of the House on Thursday.  So, voting was again postponed (canceled for the day).  Jordan’s GOP opponents leaked to the press that they’ve been planning their opposition and intend to slowly decrease his vote total, by increasing the number who vote for someone else, on each successive vote. (This sounds like a pretty odd approach that would mean some who are in opposition actually vote for Jordan in early rounds of votes. Nonetheless, it was leaked to multiple news outlets.) After another fiery closed-door shouting/swearing match amongst the GOP caucus, opponents refused to even talk with Jordan.  As a result, Jordan said he will now back giving appointed Speaker Pro Tempore “increased interim powers” for the rest of 2023…but will continue running for the job in hopes of ceasing the post in January.  (Jordan believes the two-plus months would allow him to pressure and sway his GOP opponents.  However, other GOP Reps. say the time will make no difference, the bullying/pressure will increase opposition, and the move would only prolong the GOP agony by reigniting the fight in January.)  Meanwhile, the extreme right-wing group of the GOP that brought down former speaker McCarthy despises the idea of empowering McHenry anyway, because he was chosen by and is a very close ally of McCarthy.

In miscellaneous news, while fear of inflation makes the headlines, there are places where disinflation is taking place.  For example, a bumper corn crop has caused global corn stockpiles to grow with the USDA expecting that after the US harvest, US storage of corn will have increased 55% from a year earlier.  As a result, all the companies that use corn inputs are seeing major decreases in cost.  CALM (largest egg producer in the US) says that their input cost per dozen eggs has fallen almost 11% in the 3-months ending on Sept 2 and corn supplies won’t peak for 2-3 months.  Elsewhere, the Biden Administration announced two separate offers to buy oil to refill the strategic petroleum reserve totaling 6 million barrels.  The offers would be filled in December and January.  Meanwhile, NOAA released a forecast saying low water levels in the Mississippi River will persist through at least January, despite an improved drought forecast.  The hope of relief from the drought in the Mississippi River Valley comes from the El Nino weather pattern forecast for this winter. 

In mortgage news, Bloomberg reported Thursday that the average home price in the US is now just over $412,000.  Assuming a 20% downpayment ($82,400), and a 7.2% interest rate, an American family would need to make more than $112k per year and spend no more than 30% of their income on housing.  There are only two problems with that math.  The US average 30-year, fixed-rate, 20% down rate is now 8.5% and the US average annual salary is $70k.  In other words, the average American family cannot afford to buy a home…not even close. In related news, long-term US bond yields (which are loosely tied to mortgage rates) are spiking along with other bond yields. The US 10-year bond briefly traded at a 16-year high Thursday of above 5%.

With that background, it looks like the market is still undecided at this point in the premarket. All three index ETFs gapped modestly lower to start the early session. However, they have been putting in indecisive moves since that open with DIA giving us a small black-body candle, QQQ giving us a small white-bodied candle, and SPY giving us a small Doji. So, the market leans bearish but does not seem to have made up its mind yet. All three major index ETFs are back below their T-line (8ema). With no economic news on tap today and Fed Chair Powell having spoken Thursday, it is not likely the Fed speakers will rock the boat much either today. We could get a little volatility from anything the House does. However, the main news risk would seem to be geopolitics and Middle Eastern war and/or terror news. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too far from their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is now back down well into its oversold territory. So, we still have some slack to the downside, but more slack to the upside if one of the two sides can gather momentum. Just remember that the market can stay over-extended a lot longer than you can stay solvent being right too early. Also, remember that its Friday, Payday, and time to prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service