Friday saw a gap lower following a hotter-than-expected PPI number. The SPY gapped down 0.44%, DIA gapped down 0.21%, and QQQ gapped down 0.71%.  However, like the reverse of Thursday, the Bulls stepped in to rally until 10:30 in the QQQ and 10:45 am in the SPY and QQQ.  Both of the large-cap index ETFs recrossed the gap with the DIA traveling triple the distance of that opening gap down.  From that point, all three major index ETFs rode the rollercoaster sideways within a modest range.  This action gave us white-bodied candles across the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  DIA had the smallest wicks, closing back up across the T-line (8ema) and printing a Piercing candle.  At the same time, the SPY printed a gap-down, Spinning Top and QQQ printed a gap-down, white-bodied Doji, that gapped down through and failed a retest of its 50sma.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.91%) way out front leading the way higher and Technology (-0.75%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.06%, DIA gained 0.32%, and QQQ lost 0.64%.  VXX lost almost four percent to close at 23.83 and T2122 climbed slightly and remains in the mid-range at 31.43.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.158% while Oil (WTI) was up fractionally to close at $83.04 per barrel. This all took place on average volume in the QQQ and well below average in the large-cap index ETFs.  So, it was a whipsaw day with a gap and a reversal followed by waves the rest of the day.  Once again, after a lot of travel, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ended up very near where they started.      

The major economic news reported Friday included July month-on-month PPI came in hotter than expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% and the June reading of +0.0%). Later, the Preliminary August Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in just a bit better that anticipated at 71.2 (versus a 71.0 forecast but a bit lower than the July value of 71.6).  Meanwhile, the Preliminary August Michigan Consumer Expectations came in a bit lower than expected at 67.3 (compared to a forecast of 68.1 and the July reading of 68.3).  At the same time, Preliminary August Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations were reported better than predicted at 3.3% (versus to a forecast of 3.8% and better than the July reading of 3.4%). Over the longer term, the Preliminary August Michigan 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also came in lower than anticipated at 2.9% (compared to a forecast of 3.0% and a July value of 3.0%).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In Fed news, Reuters provided a breakdown of current Fed members that may be useful.  Doves include Harker (Philly), Bostic (Atlanta), Daly (San Fran), Logan (Dallas), and Barkin (Richmond).  Those leaning dovish are Goolsbee (Chicago), Cook (Governor), Collins (Boston), and Kashkari (Minny).  Centrists include Williams (NY), Jefferson (Governor), and Barr (Vice-Chair).  Those who lean hawkish are Powell (Chair), Bowman (Governor), and Mester (Cleveland).  Finally, the Hawks are Waller (Governor), and Bullard (St. Louis).

In stock news, the tense and ugly negotiations between the “Big 3” automakers and the UAW continued Friday.  After the UAW threw the latest STLA in the trash the prior week, STLA firmly rejected the UAW counter-offer calling for the union to “focus on reality.”  (The current 4-year deals between the UAW and GM, F, and STLA end on September 14, and a strike has already been authorized by the union.)  Elsewhere, an F joint venture with a Chinese state-owned automaker (owned 50-50) is now planning its own joint venture with that same Chinese state-owned company (Chongqing Chagan Automotive) to launch an electric vehicle manufacturer. This will leave the Chinese state owning 70% of the EV venture.  Later, WYNN announced it is “winding down” its online sports betting platform WynnBET, saying that customer acquisition costs were too high (too much competition) and rules across different states were not clear.  For now, they have ceased operation in AZ, CO, IN, LA, NJ, TN, VA, and WV.

In stock legal and regulatory news, Reuters reported Friday that the SEC has begun an investigation into ILMN’s $7.1 billion acquisition of Grail (a cancer detection test kit maker) in 2021.  Details are not available yet, but the investigation seems to be related to certain management statements and compensation connected to the deal.  (The EU fined ILMN $476 million in July for closing the deal without EU approval.)  Elsewhere, a US District judge dismissed a lawsuit against SBUX on Friday.  The Chief judge of the district called it a frivolous suit by a conservative activist group who were challenging SBUX’s diversity, equity, and inclusion policies.  The judge said the group’s statements in filings clearly show the suit was meant to make political points rather than address any losses from the group’s $6,000 of SBUX stock.  Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Transportation and China have agreed to double the number of flights between the two countries.  UAL, AAL, DAL, CEA, ZNH, and AIRYY are the airlines currently offering flights between the two destinations.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned heavily toward the red with only two of the region’s 12 exchanges hanging onto the green.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.58%), Singapore (-1.41%), Japan _1.27%), and Taiwan (-1.25%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a much more bullish picture taking shape with nine of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The FTSE (-0.31%) lags while the CAC (+0.22%), and DAX (+0.44%) lead the region higher.  However, it should be noted that even with the Russian Ruble falling to a 17-month low against the Dollar, the Russian exchange is up 2.14% in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the week. The DIA implies a +0.20% open, the SPY is implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have climbed to 4.148% and Oil (WTI) is down four-tenths of a percent to $82.84 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economics news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ERJ and JKS.  Then, after the close, GSM and SU report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get July Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index, June Business Inventories, June Retail Inventories, June TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report.  Fed member Kashkari also speaks.  Then Wednesday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, July Industrial Production, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, there is no significant economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday we hear from CAH, ESLT, HD, HIS, SE, TME, A, COHR, HRB, JKHY, NU, and LRN.  Then Wednesday, EAT, JD, PDGC, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, ZIM, AVT, SQM, CSCO, KE, STNE, and SNPS reports.  On Thursday, we hear from ARCO, BILI, DOLE, NICE, TPR, WMT, AMAT, FTCH, GLOB, KEYS, and ROST.  Finally, on Friday, DE, EL, VIPS, XPEV, and PANW report.

In miscellaneous news, the Fed reported Friday that US large bank deposits rose by $17.60 billion to the $17.36 trillion level in the week ended August 2.  At the same time, US commercial bank lending also rose by $9.3 billion to $12.132 trillion (adjusted) during the same week.  Elsewhere, Refinitiv Lipper reported that investors withdrew $14.96 billion from US equity funds in the week ending August 9.  This was the biggest outflow in seven weeks. Finally, GS economists are now predicting Fed rate cuts starting in Q2 of 2024.

In late-breaking news, on Sunday X announced it has rejected a $7.3 billion unsolicited buyout offer from rival CLF. (This would have been a 43% premium over Friday’s closing price for X.) The X management said it has rejected the offer because CLF was trying to force X to make its decision without doing enough due diligence.  However, X said it is reviewing its strategic alternatives after receiving the offer.  (Bear in mind that any deal is likely to face regulatory pushback since CLF is already the largest steelmaker in the US while X is also in the top four steel producers.)

So far this morning, JKS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (ERJ has not yet reported.)

With that background, it looks like premarket action started higher but is indecisive at best since then. The SPY did try to retest its T-line (8ema) from below before backing down. Meanwhile, the DIA remains above its T-line, but close to it, and is printing an indecisive early-session candle. At the same time, QQQ opened up its premarket session higher, testing its 50sma from below, but has faded since then. So, the short-term trend is still bearish and the long-term trend remains bullish, although it is starting to be pushed. As far as extension goes, all of the major index ETFs are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher Thursday on better-than-expected CPI data.  The SPY gapped up 0.54%, DIA gapped up 0.56%, and QQQ gapped up 0.80%.  From there, all three major index ETFs followed through with a rally to the highs of the day at 10 am.  At that point, the Bears took over and led a slow, protracted selloff that saw the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all recross their opening gap.  This led to a 90-minute bounce and a selloff in the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us indecisive, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles (with large upper wicks) in all three major index ETFs.  All three also retested and failed their T-line (8ema) with the QQQ remaining right at its 50sma (testing), while the SPY and DIA are not far above their 50sma and look headed that way.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again but not nearly as strongly) with Basic Materials (-0.35%) and Utilities (-0.30%) leading the losses while Communication Services (+0.55%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.04%, DIA gained 0.17%, and QQQ gained 0.18%.  VXX gained 0.45% to close at 24.80 and T2122 fell a bit but remains in the mid-range at 31.25.  10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.109% while Oil (WTI) lost 1.80% to close at $82.89 per barrel.  This all took place on average volume across all three major index ETFs.  So, it was a whipsaw day with a gap and a little follow-through to the upside, met with a long steady selloff and then a smaller trip up and down.  In the end, after a lot of travel, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ended up just above where they started.    

The major economic news reported Thursday included July Year-on-Year CPI, which came in a touch better than expected at +3.2% (compared to a forecast of +3.3% but still worse than the June value of +3.0%).  However, the July Month-on-Month CPI came in exactly as predicted at +0.2% (versus the +0.2% forecast and the +0.2% June reading).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were higher than forecasted at 248k (compared to a 230k prediction and well above the prior week’s 227k).  Later in the day, the July Federal Budget Balance came in far worse than expected at -$221.0 billion (versus a suspect forecast of -$109.3 billion but slightly better than the June value of -$228.0 billion).  So, markets latched on to the annual CPI number and said it was a beat, gapping higher. However, if you have a more bearish outlook, you saw that it also ticked up versus the June number (and you note July Core Year-on-Year CPI is still +4.7%) and think the Fed still has rate hiking left to do.

In Fed-speak news, San Francisco Fed President Daly told a Yahoo Finance interview (a couple of hours after the CPI release) that it was too early to say whether the Fed has done enough fighting inflation. However, she did seem to hint that there is only one more hike at most in the cards (as other Fed members have implied or said). She said, “Whether we raise another time, or hold rates steady for a longer period — those things are yet to be determined,” Daly went on to say “It would be premature to project what I think would happen because there’s a lot of information coming in between now and our next meeting.”

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, Reuters reports that INTM is exploring options and in talks to potentially sell the business to buyout firm Madison Dearborn Partners for more than $1 billion.  Elsewhere, SPCE again completed a tourist trip to the edge of space, carrying three customers and a company instructor to 55 miles altitude before returning to its New Mexico base.  (This is the second such commercial trip, with the first taking place at the end of June.)   Later, MULN announced it was doing a reverse 1 for 9 stock split overnight.  (This move is part of the company’s effort to remain listed on the Nasdaq exchange.)  At the same time, an F exec told analysts they expect better software added to the company’s highly-profitable commercial truck/van line will boost revenue by $4,000-$5,000 per unit.  (There was no detail on what this new software would do for truck buyers, but it was said to be related to fleet safety, security, insurance, and partial vehicle autonomy.)  Late in the day, UAL canceled some flights into HI and ALK flagged some HI flights for major delays both citing the wildfires on the Maui island.  After the close, ACHR announced it has completed a $215 million equity offering that included STLA, BA, UAL, and ARKK as investors.

In stock legal and regulatory news, Reuters reported that the FTC investigators looking into the KR $24.6 billion acquisition of ACI are focused on how the deal would squeeze small suppliers and small grocery competitors.  Reuters said the FTC is still undecided on whether or not to oppose the deal.  Later, the US 2^nd Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that a shareholder class action suit against GS cannot go forward.  (The suit alleged GS had misled investors about business practices and conflicts of interest prior to the subprime mortgage crisis.)  Elsewhere, penny stock biotech firm AMRS has filed for bankruptcy.  At the same time, the FDA approved a JNJ antibody-based therapy for hard-to-treat blood cancers.  (JNJ is expecting a $300k price for a typical six-month treatment and says around 36,000 people are expected to be diagnosed with the disease this treat during 2023.)  Meanwhile, another politically conservative group is attacking a corporation.  This time K was targeted in a public letter sent to the EEOC, urging the agency to take action against the cereal maker, alleging a workplace diversity program is illegal.  The letter also claimed K cereal packaging during “Pride Month” sexualized its products (although it is unclear why the EEOC would care about that allegation).  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that AMZN will be “shelving” several of its private-label clothing brands as a way to cut expenses while also appeasing FTC antitrust concerns.  The move will impact 27 of AMZN’s 30 in-house clothing divisions.  Later, the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 in favor of HOOD and threw out a proposed class-action lawsuit by meme stock investors who said the broker’s halting of trading meme stocks caused them to lose money.  Late in the day, the NTHSA cited a UAL flight crew for failures that caused a flight to sharply lose altitude shortly after takeoff in December before recovering in HI.  After the close, it was announced that BA and ACHR had settled their mutual lawsuits for undisclosed terms.

After the close, DTEGY, FLO, and PAM reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, NWS and NWSA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ASTL and CANO missed on both the top and bottom lines. It’s worth noting that CANO lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned heavily to the red side.  Japan (+0.84%) was by far the largest gainer of the three green exchanges.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-2.18%), Shanghai (-2.01%), and Hong Kong (-0.90%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape with only two smaller bourses hanging onto green at midday.  The CAC (-0.79%), DAX (-0.48%), and FTSE (-1.12%) are typical and lead the way lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward an open just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.21% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have backed down very slightly to 4.096% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.40% to $83.16 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Friday includes July PPI month-on-month (8:30 am), Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations (all three at 10 am), and the WASDE Ag report (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell are limited to ACDVF and SPB.  Then, after the close, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

So far this morning, ACDVF beat on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, SPB missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

In consumer debt news, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reported its quarterly survey results.  The survey found that US mortgage delinquency rates reached an all-time low in Q2 at 3.37%.  (Of those, 1.61%, unadjusted, fell into the “seriously delinquent” category which was itself a 23-year low.) This (3.37%) was the lowest rate of mortgage loan delinquencies since the group started the survey in 1979.  It was also down 3.64% year-on-year.  The MBA survey cited a strong job market and low-interest rates as the main cause of the low delinquency rate.  However, Moody’s reported that credit card delinquencies hit 7.2% in Q2 (up from 6.5% in Q1).  At the same time, they say auto loan delinquencies hit 7.3% in Q2 versus 6.9% in Q1. So, apparently, not all debt is of the same priority, or perhaps not all studies are equally valid.

In late-breaking news, CNBC reported this morning that OXY (and two start-ups, one of which is backed by MSFT) are set to gain $1.2 billion as part of the Dept. of Energy plan to create giant vacuums to capture and then wells to sequester carbon from the atmosphere.  So far, the underlying “Direct Air Capture” technology has not scaled up enough to make much difference in fighting climate change.  However, the two projects this money will fund are expected to capture more carbon than all 18 projects of the same type that exist now globally…combined.  The project will remove 2 million metric tons of carbon per year, which is the equivalent of the emissions from 500,000 gasoline cars.  These projects will also create 5,000 jobs in TX and LA.  ($3.5 billion in funding for two additional hub projects is expected to be approved next year.)

With that background, it looks like markets are still undecided this morning, perhaps waiting on the PPI number. If you’re a Bull, the good news is that the major US indices are not following the rest of the world lower, at least yet. However, there is no strength being shown in the premarket as all three major index ETFs are giving us small, black-bodied candles with lower wicks. So, we are up off the early session lows but still below the premarket open. DIA remains right at its T-line (8ema), retesting from below again and QQQ is doing the same thing with its 50sma. The difference is that the DIA T-line is falling while the QQQ 50sma is rising. So, the short-term trend remains bearish and the long-term trend remains bullish, although it is starting to be pushed. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. That PPI print may cause some premarket volatility and impact the open. However, it should not be as bad as with the CPI. Finally, it is Friday, Payday. So, take some profits to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday started out flat (up 0.06% in the SPY, down 0.03% in the DIA, and up 0.07% in the QQQ).  At that point, the QQQ sold off hard until 11:30 am while the SPY and DIA just ground sideways until 10:45 am before following the QQQ by selling off hard until noon.  From there all three major index ETFs rallied until 2:40 pm and then all three sold off into the close.  This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three with the SPY printing a Bearish Engulfing candle and the DIA printing a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.  The DIA also retested and failed its T-line (8ema) as the QQQ retested its 50sma and closed just on the bottom side of that potential support level.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Technology (-1.43%) by far the biggest loser while Energy (+1.12%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.67%, DIA lost 0.48%, and QQQ lost 1.10%.  The VXX lost 0.88% to close at 24.69 and T2122 rose a bit and remains in the mid-range at 42.35.  10-year bond yields dropped again but remain above 4% at 4.01% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.56% to close at $84.21 per barrel.  This all took place on a bit below-average volume again in all three major index ETFs. So, markets opened just on either side of flat.  However, the tech-heavy QQQ (led by chip names VNDA, AVGO, and MRVL) led the markets lower before the Bulls staged a modest bounce back only to run out of steam.  Again, this felt like a lackluster day of drift, perhaps waiting on the CPI number Thursday. 

The major economic news reported Wednesday was limited to the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories which followed the API data from Tuesday night.  EIA showed an unexpected crude inventory build of 5.851 million barrels (compared to a forecasted build of 0.567 million barrels and dramatically higher than the previous week’s drawdown of 17.049 million barrels). 

After the close, APP, CENX, CPA, FLNC, ILMN, JAZZ, LGFA, LGFB, MATV, MFC, NASB, TTD, TTEK, DIS, and WYNN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CACI, CRGY, ENS, and G missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, VSAT and PAAS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CDE, NGL, and UHAL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that TTD, APP, and JAZZ raised their forward guidance.  However, ILMN lowered its forward guidance. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, Reuters reported Wednesday that strong international travel was helping some, but hurting domestic travel companies.  The Air Transport trade group said international travel had reached 90% of the pre-pandemic peak and cruise operators are seeing record demand.  However, a good portion of this foreign travel has come at the expense of domestic travel.  As a result, the average domestic flight ticket is down 8% from the same time in 2022 as airlines compete for passengers.   Elsewhere, the CFO of GM told an investor conference that the company is struggling to produce electric vehicles.  GM had targeted 25,000 of just the Cadillac Lyriq electric SUV this year but had only produced fewer than 2,400 in the first half.  Later, VZ said they will be raising prices again on at least some of its wireless plans.  This follows rival T raising prices in July.  After the close, DIS also announced it will increase the price of its Disney+ service for the second time in less than a year.  This increase will be a whopping 27% (from $10.99 to $13.99).  Finally, in last-minute news, TPR announced it will acquire CPRI for $8.5 billion ($57/share). CPRI shares are soaring in the premarket on the news.

In stock legal and regulatory news, a politically conservative legal group sued TGT (in Florida naturally), alleging that the retailer had misrepresented its risk management system in the wake of conservative cancel culture attacks on LGBTQ merchandise. The suit seeks unspecified damages for the decline in share price which the plaintiff alleges are wholly attributable to the LGBTQ merchandise backlash from conservatives.  Elsewhere, a US federal judge allowed a class action lawsuit against NIO to proceed.  The suit alleges the automaker lied in 2018 about building its own factory in China, which led to a decline in share prices.  Meanwhile, US railroad regulators gave a mixed review of the NSC safety culture following the February derailment (of a train carrying dangerous chemicals) in East Palestine OH.  The review praised NSC for changes made since that derailment but also disclosed it was considering several enforcement actions against the company (which had been focused for years on just meeting the minimum legal safety standards per the report).  The potential actions would be focused on track maintenance, safety inspections, repair practices, and hours of service (employee overwork beyond safe limits).  Late in the day, the FAA announced it has agreed to an industry group request and will extend the deadline until Oct. 28 for meeting the minimum number of flights required at New York City airports (to avoid losing gates and landing slots).  DAL is the primary major airline beneficiary of the change.

In government news, PIED is facing anger and skepticism from NC state officials in relation to its plans to expand lithium mining in order to supply TSLA.  The state is now concerned that the existing mine is already impacting water levels (causing some wells to run dry) in the area as lithium mining is very water-intensive.  At the same time, officials expressed concern over runoff from an expansion.  PIED announced they would be open to adding a new containment pond but did not address water usage.  In the UK, parliament opened an investigation into the country’s approach to migrating from fossil fuel toward electric vehicles.  The study is aimed to identify things the UK government can do to accelerate and support the transition ahead of the already set 2030 and 2035 deadlines.  The report is to be submitted in September.  At midday, Reuters reported that Amtrak and Texas Central Partners are exploring high-speed rail service between Dallas and Houston, seeking government grants to underwrite the project. Elsewhere, President Biden signed an executive order prohibiting US investments inside China covering three sectors.  Those sectors are semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and artificial intelligence technologies.  (Democrats largely praised the order.  However, the Republican response was mixed with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair McCaul praising the move even as others including Senator Rubio called the narrowly-tailored ban “almost laughable.”)  The bans are expected to take effect next year after multiple rounds of public comment. 

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed.  Taiwan (-1.40%) was by far the biggest mover and followed by India (-0.46%) paced the losers.  Meanwhile, Japan (+0.84%), Thailand (+0.33%), and Shanghai (+0.31%) led the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses are leaning to the green side again at midday.  The CAC (+0.94%), DAX (+0.59%), and FTSE (+0.06%) are typical of the spread but four smaller exchanges in the red in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.49% open, the SPY is implying a +0.52% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.62% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields remain flat at 4.003% and Oil (WTI) is off a half of a percent to $84.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Thursday includes July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), July Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  Philly Fed President Harker also speaks again at 4:15 pm.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, and WWW.  Then, after the close, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA report..

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In US energy news, US oil production is now projected to reach an average of 12.9 million barrels per day later this year according to the EIA data released Wednesday.  (That is a 16% increase in the last two and a half years and an all-time record output.) This 12.9mbpd value represents a 200k barrel per day increase over the last EIA forecast.  US Oil output is also expected to reach 13.1 million barrels per day in 2024, which will be far in excess of the US record and the world’s second-largest oil producer (Saudi Arabia), which now produces less than 10 million barrels per day according to OPEC (after recent self-imposed 1 million bpd reductions).  The downside (for US gas prices at least) is that domestic oil producers are shipping more oil abroad to take advantage of the higher prices in Europe and Asia.  In addition, US domestic oil usage is also near all-time highs at 20.6 million barrels per day (20.8 million barrels per day is the record, set in 2005). 

So far this morning, BABA, AIT, TAST, DDS, EYE, NVZMY, and RWEOY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HBI, USFD, and YETI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AQN and WWW beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, NVO and SIX missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that HBI and WWW lowered forward guidance while YETI raised guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are again looking to gap us higher, but are still giving us inside day-type candles in the premarket (at least ahead of CPI data). DIA is retesting its T-line (8ema) from below this morning in the premarket this morning. However, we should also note that all three major index ETFs are giving us small, black-bodied candles in the early session. (Meaning they are off the highs.) So, there is not a lot of conviction. The short-term trend is bearish and the longer-term trend remains Bullish. However, the DIA is testing its 50sma while the SPY and QQQ are not far above their own. So, even longer-term Bulls have to be nervous. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, once again both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. That CPI print should cause some premarket volatility and will impact the open. Just be aware.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower at the open Tuesday (down 0.58% in the SPY, down 0.60% in the DIA, and down 0.69% in the QQQ).  This resulted from disappointing international trade data out of China, a surprise windfall profits tax on banks in Italy, and a Moody’s downgrade of 10 US banks (and others put on warning for downgrade). After the open, all three of the major index ETFs followed through until about 11 am.  At that point, the Bulls stepped in and began a slow, steady rally that lasted right into the close.  This action gave us gap-down, white-bodied Hammer candles in the SPY and DIA as well as a gap-down, black-bodied Hammer candle in the QQQ.  Only DIA managed to make it up to its T-line (8ema) closing right up against the underside of that average.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Financial Services (-1.04%) and Technology (-1.02%) leading the way lower while Healthcare (+1.00%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.43%, DIA lost 0.45%, and QQQ lost 0.85%.  The VXX gained 1.76% to 24.91 and T2122 fell but again but remains in the mid-range at 36.13. 10-year bond yields dropped back again but remain above 4% at 4.024% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.05% to close at $82.80 per barrel.  This all took place on a bit below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  So, Bears gapped the market lower and had control in the morning.  However, by late-morning the Bulls clocked in and led a slow comeback rally the rest of the day.  Once again, this felt like a news-driven jolt and then a modest drift up on the day.  It felt like the opposite of Monday, with the fall characterized more by a lack of conviction than a true change of direction.

The major economic news reported Tuesday included June Exports, which increased slightly to $247.50 billion (compared to the May value of $247.10 billion).  We also got June Imports, which fell slightly to $313.00 billion (down from the May $316.10 billion).  Together, these gave us a June Trade Balance of -$65.50 billion (a bit below the forecast of -$65.00 billion but better than the May deficit of $68.30 billion).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report gave us an unexpected oil inventory build of 4.067 million barrels (versus a forecast calling for a drawdown of 0.233 million barrels and far better than the prior week’s 15.400-million-barrel drawdown.  

In Fed-speak news, Philly Fed President Harker (voter) told an event that barring any abrupt change in the direction of recent economic data, the FOMC may be at a stage where it can leave rates where they are for some time.  Harker said, “Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work,” … “we will need to be there for a while.”  Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a non-voter and dove) again said he does not believe any more hikes will be needed.  At the same time, NY Fed President Williams (voter) was quoted in a New York Times interview to say “I think we’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be.”  (However, he did not go so far as to commit to one more hike or not.) 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, AAPL and SSNLF (Samsung) will both become “anchor investors” in the IPO of chip designer Arm (which is being spun off by current owner SFTBY (Softbank).  Arm is the chip platform that AAPL chose when dropping INTC chips and going with their so-called “AAPL chip” (Arm-based) chips for AAPL computing products.  NVDA and AMZN are also in talks to become anchor investors but neither were announced Tuesday.  Elsewhere, BA deliveries fell in July with the company supplying 43 aircraft (down from 60 in June and compared to Airbus delivering 65).  At the same time, ADT announced it is selling its commercial security business unit to a private equity firm for $1.6 billion. Meanwhile, negotiations are getting contentious in the auto industry as the UAW threw the latest contract offer from STLA in the trash can after the company proposed cutting vacation days, cutting healthcare coverage, cutting 401(k) contributions, and lifting the cap on temporary workers.  (Current UAW contracts with STLA, GM, and F all expire September 14.)  After the close, DIS made an interesting and odd decision. The family-oriented entertainment company’s ESPN unit agreed to launch a sports betting service under the name “ESPN Bet” in partnership with PENN.  (PENN will pay ESPN $1.5 billion in cash and offer $500 million in warrants to purchase PENN shares over a 10-year period.)

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, UK media regulator Ofcom said on Tuesday that it has opened an investigation into SNAP for potentially not doing enough to remove underage users (under 13) from its platform.  At the same time, NVO announced that a large study has found its wildly-popular obesity drug Wegovy has also been shown to have clear cardiovascular benefits.  Elsewhere, US regulators fined nine companies a total of $549 million on Tuesday.  WFC and BNPQY received the largest fines and have agreed to pay penalties for having brokerage employees who used off-record communications tools like WhatsApp.  WFC paid $125 million and BNPQY (BNP Paribas) $35 million to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.  Other firms hit with fines include among others including BMO, MC, and HLI.  Later, a US federal judge ruled against GOOGL, dismissing the company’s bid to have a privacy lawsuit thrown out.  The $5 billion class action suit alleges GOOGL collected users browsing histories without obtaining user consent and without even explicitly telling users it would do so.  At the same time, LUV announced it will appeal a fringe TX federal judge ruling that said three of the airline’s senior attorneys must attend “religious liberty training” held by a TX conservative Christian legal group.  During the afternoon, the NHTSA announced it has opened an investigation into 1.1 million older STLA Dodge Ram 1500 pickup trucks over power steering loss issues.  Near the close, a judge dismissed ABNB’s lawsuit against New York City for what the company had called a “de facto ban” on short-term rentals (because hosts were required to register with the city).  The judge cited 12,000 complaints the city had received about short-term rentals in a 5-year period preceding the law.  After the close, a US Appeals Court panel of judges in OH rejected an appeal by SBUX, ruling that the company must rehire seven employees fired in Memphis for supporting a union.

After the close, ACCO, AKAM, AMC, ARRY, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DOOR, FG, FNV, GNW, GO, LYFT, OSCR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, and TWLO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, IOSP, LILA, and MODG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EDR, FLT, FNF, TTWO, and TOST beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, DAR, IAC, and JXN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SMCI, TOST, and LYFT raised their forward guidance. 

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed but leaned toward the green.  South Korea (+1.21%), Malaysia (+0.76%), and Thailand (+0.65%) led the more plentiful gainers while Japan (-0.53%), Shenzhen (-0.53%), and Shanghai (-0.49%) paced the five down exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.17%), DAX (+1.03%), and FTSE (+0.78%) lead the region but the gains are broad-based in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.036% and Oil (WTI) is up another percent to $83.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventory (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, and WEN.  Then, after the close, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous news, President Biden designated almost 1 million acres near the Grand Canyon (AZ) as a national monument Tuesday.  The purported reason was that the lands are sacred to Havasupai and Hopi Native American tribes.  However, the land is also known to hold about one percent of US uranium reserves and this designation will prevent new mining leases on that land, potentially heading off environmental damage to the area.  Elsewhere, Ag analysts expect the US corn crop to be the second-largest on record after rains in July helped a critical growing stage.  The WASDE report comes out on Friday, but the USDA has already increased the percentage of corn cropland rated from good to excellent by four percent.  (Corn prices are down 18% since the end of June.)  Meanwhile, US credit card balances passed $1 trillion in Q2 according to data released by the NY Fed.  This took them to a record $1.03 trillion as Household debt rose 0.1% to $17.06 trillion.

In late-breaking news, China fell into deflation registering a drop in its CPI for the first time in more than two years.  Prices fell 0.3% in China during the month of July while PPI fell for a 10^th consecutive month, contracting 4.4%.  This adds to the pressure on Beijing to add more monetary and fiscal support to its economy.  Elsewhere, US Mortgage demand fell again because interest rates climbed to a 21-year high during the week.  The average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rate jumped to 7.09% (up from 6.93% the week prior).  This led to a 3% decline in new purchase loan applications and a 4% decline in refinance mortgage applications.

So far this morning, ATS, CRL, EONGY, GEO, HMC, ICL, PENN, VSH, VWDRY, and WE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (Oddly, after beating lowered estimates, WE also warned of possible bankruptcy after going public only in 2021.  They cited the pandemic as hurting the company.)  Meanwhile, ADRNY, NOMD, SONY, and WEN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, VTNR and BCO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BAM and OGE missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that GEO also lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are retesting their T-line (8ema) from below in the premarket this morning and QQQ is not that far below its own. However, we should also note that all three major index ETFs are giving us small, indecisive (Doji-like) candles in the early session. So, there is not a lot of conviction. The short-term trend is bearish and the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have EIA Oil Inventory news scheduled during the day today. So, again, this should be a light news week overall until the CPI print on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a gap higher at the open.  SPY gapped up 0.40%, DIA gapped up 0.38%, and QQQ gapped up 0.51%.  From there, the DIA meandered sideways until shortly past 10 am, when it began a rally that lasted until 2 pm before modestly selling off the last two hours of the day.  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ meandered sideways until 11:30 am before modestly rallying the remainder of the day…even accelerating the last 15 minutes into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY gave us a Bullish Harami that remained below its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, QQQ printed a white-bodied, Hammer, Bullish Harami that also remained below its T-line.  Finally, the DIA gave us a white-bodied, inside day that crossed back above its own T-line.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+1.00%) and Industrials (+0.95%) leading the way higher while Utilities (+0.03%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.87%, DIA gained 1.13%, and QQQ gained 0.85%.  The VXX dropped 5.23% to 24.48 and T2122 climbed again but remains in the mid-range at 66.67.  10-year bond yields spiked (mostly prior to the open) to 4.101% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.37% to close at $82.51 per barrel.  This all took place on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  So, Bulls gapped the market higher and then modestly drift on up in light volume.  This felt like a drifting day more characterized by a lack of Bears than strength from the Bulls.

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, we did hear from three Fed members.  New York Fed President Williams said “The debate is really about: Do we need to do another rate increase? Or not? … I think we’re pretty close to what a peak rate would be.”  Williams later said “Assuming inflation continues to come down … then if we don’t cut interest rates at some point next year, then real interest rates will go up, and up, and up. And that won’t be consistent with our goals.” However, Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) told an audience “I supported raising the federal funds rate at our July meeting, and I expect that additional increases will likely be needed to lower inflation to the goal.” 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, SHW shut down production at its Garland, TX plant after an explosion and fire.  No damage assessment or timeline for resumption is yet available.  Later, CPB announced it has agreed to buy SOVO for $2.33 billion in cash.  CPB will acquire the Michael Angelo’s and Rao brands from the deal.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that PBR has said it is planning to increase its capital investments by 10% in its new 5-year plan versus the previous one.  The $86 billion 2024-2028 capital expense plan (specific projects) is set to be released before year-end.  At the same time, TOSYY (Toshiba) announced a $14 billion tender offer to take the company private.  The offer will be launched today agreeing to pay $32.44 per share.  Two-thirds of shareholders need to accept the offer for it to take effect.  (TOSYY closed at $16.47 after a 2.5% gain on the news.)  Meanwhile, TSN announced it will close four chicken processing plants (3,000 jobs in AR, IN, and MO) sometime late in 2023 or early 2024.  In the auto industry, STLA threw its hat into the electric vehicle ring saying that it will offer a Fiat brand low-cost ($27,000) EV July 2024.  In the air industry, ERJ announced that the demand for executive jets has not softened and the company still has a two-year backlog of orders.  At the same time, as reported here Monday, PARA announced that KKR has agreed to buy its Simon & Schuster unit for $1.62 billion.  In news that may become legal, PYPL announced Monday that it has launched a US Dollar backed stablecoin to compete with Tether (which has 67% of that market) and USD Coin (which has a 21% share of the market).  (The other US tech firm to try this was META, whose Libra stablecoin was killed by regulators.)

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, the FTC agreed to dismiss its case that had been aimed at blocking the ICE $11.7 billion acquisition of BKI.  This came as both sides remain in negotiation about potential asset sales of the combined entity that would make the FTC more comfortable with the purchase.  Elsewhere, EU antitrust regulators formalized their opposition to the ADBE $20 billion purchase if Figma (a cloud-based design platform), which it said would remove an important rival to ADBE’s Photoshop.  A formal, final decision is now scheduled for December 14.  At the same time, the FDA approved a SAGE and BIIB partnership drug for postpartum depression but rejected it as a treatment for the broader-category “major depressive disorder.”  The market had assumed it would receive approval for the broader condition ($1 billion market) as opposed to the narrow market ($250 – $500 million market).  Meanwhile, Reuters reported that AMZN is preparing for a meeting with the FTC in an effort to head off portions or all of a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against the e-commerce giant.  At the close, a federal judge put a predatory lending (hiding the true cost of borrowing from the borrower) lawsuit brought by the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the NY Attorney General against CACC on hold.  The judge cited the US Supreme hearing a separate case brought by conservatives aimed at ruling the funding of the US CFPB is unconstitutional (and therefore the agency should not exist and should not be allowed to regulate or sue) as the reason.  Finally, after the close, PTRA filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

After the close, BKD, PLUS, JELD, KD, MTW, NNI, PARA, PLTR, PRIM, RNG, SWKS, STRL, TDC, and WMK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CTRA, CAPL, ICUI, KMPR, OKE, and PRI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ACM, AEL, and ARKO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, CBT, CE, COMP, IFF, and MRC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ACM, PLUS, PLTR, and STRL all raised their forward guidance.  However, IFF lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed but leaned red.  Japan (+0.38%) and Malaysia (+0.36%) were the only two appreciable gainers while Hong Kong (-1.81%), Thailand (-0.92%), and New Zealand (-0.55%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the lone exception of Denmark (+1.81%) the bourses are strongly red at midday.  The CAC (-0.96%), DAX (-1.27%), and FTSE (-0.62%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a strong move lower at the open.  The DIA implies a -0.62% open, the SPY is implying a -0.68% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.75% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are plummeting to 3.984%, and Oil (WTI) is down 1.55% to $80.67 per barrel in early trading.

At least part of the reason for global stock weakness was a fall in China’s July Trade data, which fell more than expected.  The data showed Chinese exports were down 14.5% year-on-year in July while imports were down 12.5% versus July 2022. Meanwhile, in Europe, Italy surprised markets with a new 40% windfall profits tax on banks.  (That one-off tax will figure out to be about 19% of banks’ net profits for the year according to analysts at C.)  On this side of the pond, Moody’s cut the credit rating of 10 US banks and put 11 others on a “negative outlook” overnight.  Those whose credit rating was cut include BK, USB, STT, TFC, CFR, NTRS, MTB, PNFP, BOKF, and WBS.  Among those who saw a downgrade to a “negative outlook” were COF, CFG, and FITB.

The major economics news scheduled for Tuesday includes June Imports, June Exports, and June Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include AHCO, ADT, ARMK, ATKR, GOLD, BR, CPRI, CEIX, DDOG, DUK, LLY, ENR, FOXA, GFS, HNI, HZNP, INGR, LCII, LI, NFE, NYT, NXST, NRG, OGN, PRGO, PLTK, RPRX, QSR, SEE, SEAS, STGW, TDG, UAA, UPS, VRTV, WMG, and ZTS.  Then, after the close, AKAM, AMC, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DAR, EDR, FG, FLT, FNF, FNV, GNW, GO, IAC, IOSP, JXN, LILA, LYFT, DOOR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, TTWO, TOST, MODG, and TWLO report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, WEN, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report. On Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous news, BYND posted a 30% revenue decline last night and said there is falling demand for its artificial meat products.  Elsewhere, a trade group representing airlines has asked the FAA to extend the deadline for airlines to fly a minimum number of flights from NYC airports in order to maintain their gates and flight slots.  (Months ago, the FAA had given DAL until September 15 to comply with minimums unless they wanted to lose some NYC-originating routes. The group asked the FAA to extend this through the end of October.)

So far this morning, ALE, ARMK, DDOG, LLY, GFS, LI, OGN, PRGO, RPRX, QSR, TDG, UA, UAA, and ZTS all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATKR, GOLD, BR, INGR, NFE, PLTK, SEE, and UPS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DUK, J, LCII, and NXST beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ADT, ENR, and SEAS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that LI, LLY, and TDG raised forward guidance.  However, UPS and PLTK both lowered their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears woke up in the mood to push this morning. All three major index ETFs are giving us gap-down, black-bodied candles this morning. (Meaning they are near their pre-market lows.) So far, QQQ and DIA are still inside candles, but all three are moving lower as the premarket session moves along. However, at least as of now, none of the three has taken out recent lows. So, they remain in the trading range. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is bearish. However, the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to the T-line and the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have Trade news scheduled during the day today. In fact, this should be a light news week overall until the CPI print on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened modestly higher Friday, with the SPY gapping up 0.41%, DIA gapping up 0.32%, and QQQ gapping up 0.53%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs gave us a 20-minute rally (follow through) followed by a 20-minute selloff to fade the gap, and then a steady rally that took us to the highs of the day at 12:45 pm.  However, then the Bulls headed out the door and the Bears lead a stronger, steady selloff that drove all the way into the close.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles with sizable upper wicks in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  It also produced Bearish Engulfing signals in the SPY and DIA.  All three major index ETFs also retested and failed their T-line during the day as well as falling through a minor support level.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-0.76%) again leading the way lower while Basic Materials (+0.20%) and Communications Services (+0.18%) were the only sectors appreciably in the green.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.45%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 0.47%.  The VXX climbed 3.57% to 25.83 and T2122 again climbed toward the center of the mid-range to 48.25.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.042% while Oil (WTI) jumped 1.34% to close at $82.64 per barrel. This happened on slightly above average volume in the QQQ and DIA as well as average volume in the SPY.  So, we ended the week on a fourth-straight down-day in the SPY and QQQ, resulting in the worst week since March.

The major economic news reported Friday included the July Average Hourly Earnings, which came in above expectations at +4.4% year-on-year (compared to a forecast of +4.2% but in line with the June reading of +4.4%).  The July Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month was also a bit above what was anticipated at +0.4% (versus the June +0.3% but again right in line with the June value of +0.4%).  At the same time, July Nonfarm Payrolls were reported below the predicted level at +187k (compared to a +200k forecast but just above the June reading of +185k).  On the private side, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also light at +172k (versus a forecast of +179k but well above the June value of +128k). The July Participation Rate remained steady at 62.6% (with the forecast and June reading also being 62.6%).  This all resulted in a July Unemployment rate that fell to 3.5% (compared to a forecast of 3.6% which was also the June value).  What all of this Payroll data means is that a soft landing seems more likely as job addition is declining but remains positive even as recent data has shown inflation is falling.  Apparently, the Fed has (at least so far) threaded the needle. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, shipping giant Maersk warned Friday, saying there has been a steep decline in demand for global sea shipping containers.  This implies importers and exporters like LOW, WMT, TGT, HD, UL, ADM, QCOM, NKE, PG, etc. could also be suffering significant demand declines.  Elsewhere, GOOGL said Friday that is has unloaded 90% of its position in HOOD, leaving the online ad giant with 612k shares.  At the same time, Reuters reported YELL’s Friday bankruptcy filing is now considering a sale of assets and real estate as part of its reorganization.  Meanwhile, AMZN announced it will dip into the finance market by offering a credit card in Brazil in partnership with MA.  Then, after the close, GM said it will be adding headcount in 2024. Also after the close, AAPL, HPE, and SSGFF all halted shipments to India after PM Modi ordered all imports of electronics to require a license (in order to discourage foreign purchases instead of Indian-manufactured products).

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, AMZN was cited again Friday by the Dept. of Labor OSHA agency for more hazardous conditions including unreasonable worker quotas and improper medical care.  OSHA said it has recommended $15,615 in new penalties (maximum allowed by law) against the AMZN Logan Township, NJ warehouse.  (AMZN has 15 days to pay or appeal the fines.)  Elsewhere, COIN asked a federal judge to throw out the SEC’s lawsuit that accused it of violating securities laws by trading cryptocurrency the SEC classifies as securities.  During the afternoon, the FDA approved the first oral postpartum depression treatment from SAGE and BIIB. (The injectable version required a two-day IV drip.) The condition affects 1 in 8 mothers and could become a major revenue generator based on convenience when the pills hit the US market by year-end.  Meanwhile, after the close, the major banks released the amounts they expect to be charged as part of the “special assessment” to replenish the FDIC deposit insurance fund.  JPM expects $3 billion, WFC projects $1.8 billion, BAC anticipates $1.9 billion, GS expects $400 million, PNC is planning on $468 million, MS expects $270 million, TFC projects $460 million, and C anticipates $1.5 billion.  Finally, the antitrust case against GOOGL brought by the Dept. of Justice and 38 states was narrowed Friday as the judge threw out some claims. This was a significant win for GOOGL, with the case alleging the GOOGL search engine results favor GOOGL and disadvantage competitors like YELP and EXPE heading to trial on September 12.

So far this morning, DK, ELAN, KKR, THS, and VTRS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BRKB and CCO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, HSIC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that THS raised its forward guidance.  It is also worth noting that BRKB missed on earnings while still reporting a record quarterly profit.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed in modest trading.  South Korea (-0.85%), Shenzhen (-0.83%), and Shanghai (-0.59%) paced the six losing exchanges.  On the other side, Taiwan (+0.90%), Singapore (+0.53%), and India (+0.41%) led the six gainers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning heavily to the red side at midday.  The CA (-0.48%), DAX (-0.65%), and FTSE (-0.65%) lead the region lower with only Russia (+1.47%) appreciably higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward an open on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are surging higher to 4.107% and Oil (WTI) is down one percent to $82.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Monday is limited to two Fed speakers (Harker at 8:15 am and Bowman at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BRKB, BTNX, CCO, DK, ELAN, HE, HSIC, KKR, THS, TSN, and VTRS.  Then, after the close, ACM, AEL, ARKO, BKD, CBT, CE, COMP, CTRA, CAPL, PLUS, WTRG, ICUI, IFF, ITUB, JELD, KMPR, KD, MTW, MRC, OKE, PLTR, PARA, PRI, PRIM, RNG, SWKS, and STRL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Imports, June Exports, June Trade Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, we hear from AHCO, ADT, ARMK, ATKR, GOLD, BR, CPRI, CEIX, DDOG, DUK, LLY, ENR, FOXA, GFS, HNI, HZNP, INGR, LCII, LI, NFE, NYT, NXST, NRG, OGN, PRGO, PLTK, RPRX, QSR, SEE, SEAS, STGW, TDG, UAA, UPS, VRTV, WMG, ZTS, AKAM, AMC, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DAR, EDR, FG, FLT, FNF, FNV, GNW, GO, IAC, IOSP, JXN, LILA, LYFT, DOOR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, TTWO, TOST, MODG, and TWLO.  Then Wednesday, BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, WEN, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report. On Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous weekend news, late Friday night META CEO Zuckerberg announced that the new Twitter competitor Threads will have new search and web features within a few weeks.  Then on Saturday, Fed Governor (and voter) Bowman (a hawk) said she expects more rate hikes.  Bowman went on to say, “We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.” Elsewhere Saturday, BRKB released record-breaking Q2 results, which showed a 6.6% increase in earnings (versus Q2 of 2022) to $10.043 billion and a $17 billion increase in cash on hand (to nearly $150 billion).  Again, this was BRKB’s biggest quarterly profit ever.  However, they missed on earnings.  Meanwhile, WFC announced Saturday that its system glitch, which had caused many customers’ direct deposits to not be credited to their accounts, had been fixed and account balances were now corrected.  (The issue had begun Thursday when WFC began getting social media backlash once again.)

With that background, it looks like markets are giving us a gap-up, black-bodied candle in all three major index ETFs this morning. (Meaning they are well off the pre-market highs.) Inside candles for sure, but trying a modest premarket move. The DIA retested (and failed) its T-line in the early session with the other two just hanging out inside Friday’s candle. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is bearish. However, the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to T-line and T2122 is dead-center in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have Fed speakers in terms of scheduled news today. In fact, this should be a light news week until CPI on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service