Markets opened modestly higher Friday, with the SPY gapping up 0.41%, DIA gapping up 0.32%, and QQQ gapping up 0.53%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs gave us a 20-minute rally (follow through) followed by a 20-minute selloff to fade the gap, and then a steady rally that took us to the highs of the day at 12:45 pm.  However, then the Bulls headed out the door and the Bears lead a stronger, steady selloff that drove all the way into the close.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles with sizable upper wicks in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  It also produced Bearish Engulfing signals in the SPY and DIA.  All three major index ETFs also retested and failed their T-line during the day as well as falling through a minor support level.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-0.76%) again leading the way lower while Basic Materials (+0.20%) and Communications Services (+0.18%) were the only sectors appreciably in the green.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.45%, DIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 0.47%.  The VXX climbed 3.57% to 25.83 and T2122 again climbed toward the center of the mid-range to 48.25.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.042% while Oil (WTI) jumped 1.34% to close at $82.64 per barrel. This happened on slightly above average volume in the QQQ and DIA as well as average volume in the SPY.  So, we ended the week on a fourth-straight down-day in the SPY and QQQ, resulting in the worst week since March.

The major economic news reported Friday included the July Average Hourly Earnings, which came in above expectations at +4.4% year-on-year (compared to a forecast of +4.2% but in line with the June reading of +4.4%).  The July Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month was also a bit above what was anticipated at +0.4% (versus the June +0.3% but again right in line with the June value of +0.4%).  At the same time, July Nonfarm Payrolls were reported below the predicted level at +187k (compared to a +200k forecast but just above the June reading of +185k).  On the private side, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also light at +172k (versus a forecast of +179k but well above the June value of +128k). The July Participation Rate remained steady at 62.6% (with the forecast and June reading also being 62.6%).  This all resulted in a July Unemployment rate that fell to 3.5% (compared to a forecast of 3.6% which was also the June value).  What all of this Payroll data means is that a soft landing seems more likely as job addition is declining but remains positive even as recent data has shown inflation is falling.  Apparently, the Fed has (at least so far) threaded the needle. 

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In stock news, shipping giant Maersk warned Friday, saying there has been a steep decline in demand for global sea shipping containers.  This implies importers and exporters like LOW, WMT, TGT, HD, UL, ADM, QCOM, NKE, PG, etc. could also be suffering significant demand declines.  Elsewhere, GOOGL said Friday that is has unloaded 90% of its position in HOOD, leaving the online ad giant with 612k shares.  At the same time, Reuters reported YELL’s Friday bankruptcy filing is now considering a sale of assets and real estate as part of its reorganization.  Meanwhile, AMZN announced it will dip into the finance market by offering a credit card in Brazil in partnership with MA.  Then, after the close, GM said it will be adding headcount in 2024. Also after the close, AAPL, HPE, and SSGFF all halted shipments to India after PM Modi ordered all imports of electronics to require a license (in order to discourage foreign purchases instead of Indian-manufactured products).

In stock legal, regulatory, and government news, AMZN was cited again Friday by the Dept. of Labor OSHA agency for more hazardous conditions including unreasonable worker quotas and improper medical care.  OSHA said it has recommended $15,615 in new penalties (maximum allowed by law) against the AMZN Logan Township, NJ warehouse.  (AMZN has 15 days to pay or appeal the fines.)  Elsewhere, COIN asked a federal judge to throw out the SEC’s lawsuit that accused it of violating securities laws by trading cryptocurrency the SEC classifies as securities.  During the afternoon, the FDA approved the first oral postpartum depression treatment from SAGE and BIIB. (The injectable version required a two-day IV drip.) The condition affects 1 in 8 mothers and could become a major revenue generator based on convenience when the pills hit the US market by year-end.  Meanwhile, after the close, the major banks released the amounts they expect to be charged as part of the “special assessment” to replenish the FDIC deposit insurance fund.  JPM expects $3 billion, WFC projects $1.8 billion, BAC anticipates $1.9 billion, GS expects $400 million, PNC is planning on $468 million, MS expects $270 million, TFC projects $460 million, and C anticipates $1.5 billion.  Finally, the antitrust case against GOOGL brought by the Dept. of Justice and 38 states was narrowed Friday as the judge threw out some claims. This was a significant win for GOOGL, with the case alleging the GOOGL search engine results favor GOOGL and disadvantage competitors like YELP and EXPE heading to trial on September 12.

So far this morning, DK, ELAN, KKR, THS, and VTRS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BRKB and CCO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, HSIC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that THS raised its forward guidance.  It is also worth noting that BRKB missed on earnings while still reporting a record quarterly profit.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed in modest trading.  South Korea (-0.85%), Shenzhen (-0.83%), and Shanghai (-0.59%) paced the six losing exchanges.  On the other side, Taiwan (+0.90%), Singapore (+0.53%), and India (+0.41%) led the six gainers.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are leaning heavily to the red side at midday.  The CA (-0.48%), DAX (-0.65%), and FTSE (-0.65%) lead the region lower with only Russia (+1.47%) appreciably higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward an open on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are surging higher to 4.107% and Oil (WTI) is down one percent to $82.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Monday is limited to two Fed speakers (Harker at 8:15 am and Bowman at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BRKB, BTNX, CCO, DK, ELAN, HE, HSIC, KKR, THS, TSN, and VTRS.  Then, after the close, ACM, AEL, ARKO, BKD, CBT, CE, COMP, CTRA, CAPL, PLUS, WTRG, ICUI, IFF, ITUB, JELD, KMPR, KD, MTW, MRC, OKE, PLTR, PARA, PRI, PRIM, RNG, SWKS, and STRL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Imports, June Exports, June Trade Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July CPI year-on-year, July CPI month-on-month, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July Federal Budget Balance, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July PPI month-on-month, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations, Preliminary Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectations, and the WASDE Ag report are delivered.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, we hear from AHCO, ADT, ARMK, ATKR, GOLD, BR, CPRI, CEIX, DDOG, DUK, LLY, ENR, FOXA, GFS, HNI, HZNP, INGR, LCII, LI, NFE, NYT, NXST, NRG, OGN, PRGO, PLTK, RPRX, QSR, SEE, SEAS, STGW, TDG, UAA, UPS, VRTV, WMG, ZTS, AKAM, AMC, BHF, CLOV, CPNG, DAR, EDR, FG, FLT, FNF, FNV, GNW, GO, IAC, IOSP, JXN, LILA, LYFT, DOOR, QGEN, QDEL, RXT, RIVN, SLF, SMCI, TTWO, TOST, MODG, and TWLO.  Then Wednesday, BERY, BHG, BCO, BAM, CRL, GEO, HMC, NOMD, OGE, PENN, RBLX, SONY, SWX, SLVM, UWMC, VTNR, VSH, WEN, APP, CACI, CANO, CENX, CDE, CPA, CRGY, ENS, G, ILMN, JAZZ, MFC, NGL, PAAS, TTEK, VSAT, DIS, and WYNN report. On Thursday, we hear from AQN, BABA, AIT, AZUL, TAST, HBI, KELYA, EYE, NVO, ACDC, RL, USFD, WWW, ASTL, BAP, and NWSA.  Finally, on Friday, ACDVF reports.

In miscellaneous weekend news, late Friday night META CEO Zuckerberg announced that the new Twitter competitor Threads will have new search and web features within a few weeks.  Then on Saturday, Fed Governor (and voter) Bowman (a hawk) said she expects more rate hikes.  Bowman went on to say, “We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.” Elsewhere Saturday, BRKB released record-breaking Q2 results, which showed a 6.6% increase in earnings (versus Q2 of 2022) to $10.043 billion and a $17 billion increase in cash on hand (to nearly $150 billion).  Again, this was BRKB’s biggest quarterly profit ever.  However, they missed on earnings.  Meanwhile, WFC announced Saturday that its system glitch, which had caused many customers’ direct deposits to not be credited to their accounts, had been fixed and account balances were now corrected.  (The issue had begun Thursday when WFC began getting social media backlash once again.)

With that background, it looks like markets are giving us a gap-up, black-bodied candle in all three major index ETFs this morning. (Meaning they are well off the pre-market highs.) Inside candles for sure, but trying a modest premarket move. The DIA retested (and failed) its T-line in the early session with the other two just hanging out inside Friday’s candle. All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is bearish. However, the longer-term trend remains Bullish. As far as extension goes, all of them are close to T-line and T2122 is dead-center in its mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. We only have Fed speakers in terms of scheduled news today. In fact, this should be a light news week until CPI on Thursday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, the Bears started off looking for follow-through to Wednesday’s black candle by opening lower (gapping down 0.47% in the SPY, gapping down 0.31% in the DIA, and gapping down 0.66% in the QQQ).  However, the Bulls met the lower open with a slow, meandering rally that lasted until early afternoon when a modest selloff took over and drove into the close.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs with the DIA and SPY both printing Spinning Top candles with a larger upper wick than lower wick.  For its part, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Inverted Hammer-type candle with no lower wick. This happened on less-than-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-2.14%) way, way out in front (by 1.5%) leading the way lower while Energy (+1.02%) held up far better (by almost three-quarters of a percent) than other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.29%, DIA lost 0.21%, and QQQ lost 0.16%.  The VXX fell slightly to 24.96 and T2122 climbed toward the center but remains in the lower half of the mid-range at 41.32.  10-year bond yields spiked to 4.187% while Oil (WTI) jumped 2.84% to close at $81.78 per barrel.  So, on Thursday we saw an opening gap follow through by the Bears, a “slow but steady” rebound rally by the Bulls that recrossed that gap, and then a “slow but steady” selloff that took us back down into the gap by the close.  All three major index ETFs remain at minor potential support levels that were tested during the day.

The major economic news reported Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in exactly as predicted at 227k (compared to a forecast of 227k and higher than the prior week’s 221k).  At the same time, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity (quarter-on-quarter) came in much higher than expected at +3.7% (versus a forecast of +2.0% and a Q1 decline of 1.2%).  Meanwhile, the Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Cost was reported much lower than anticipated at +1.6% (compared to a forecast of +2.6% and less than half of the Q1 reading of +3.3%).  Later, the July S&P Global Composite PMI was reported just as predicted at 52.0 (versus a 52.0 forecast and down a bit from the June value of 53.2).  At the same time, the July S&P US Services PMI came in slightly low at 52.3 (compared to a forecast of 52.4 and the June reading of 54.4).  After that, June Factory Orders were a bit better than expected at +2.3% (versus a forecast calling for +2.2% and far above the +0.4% in May).  The July ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index came in a bit low at 50.7 (compared to the 51.1 forecast and the June value of 53.1).  Simultaneously, the July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was also light at 52.7 (compared to a 53.0 forecast and a June reading of 53.9).  Finally, after the close, the Fed’s Balance Sheet showed another reduction.  The week ended at $8.207 trillion down $36 billion from the previous week’s $8.243 trillion.

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In stock news, HAS announced plans to sell its eOne film and TV studio to LGF by the end of the year for about $500 million.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that two sources tell it TSLA executives met with India’s Commerce Minister to discuss plans to build a plant in India.  At the same time, MRNA announced a forecast of as much as $4 billion in revenue in 2023 from its COVID-19 vaccine when sales shift from government to private markets and expects further growth in 2024.  Meanwhile, Teamsters began the vote on their tentative deal with UPS.  The 340,000 workers will continue voting until August 22 as union leaders are urging members to accept the deal.  (Local Teamster leaders voted 161-1 to support and “sell” the deal to their union members.)  After the close, JPM announced it is expecting to pay nearly $3 billion to replenish its share of the FDIC insurance deposit fund once FDIC rules are finalized.  Also after the close, NKLA announced it has received enough shareholder support to allow it to increase the number of shares it can issue to raise much-needed capital.  At the same time, Reuters reported that KKR is in advanced talks to buy Simon & Schuster from PARA for $1.65 billion.

In stock legal, REGN told Reuters it expects an approval decision from the FDA during Q3 related to a higher-dose version of its blockbuster Eylea drug.  This comes after the FDA has completed an inspection of REGN’s contract manufacturer (CTLT) for the new dosage.  Elsewhere, securities regulators in MA have opened an investigation into major financial firms using AI technology in interactions with customers.  The investigation will include JPM and MS.  Later, TEVA announced it has agreed to pay US hospitals $126 million (over 18 years) to settle claims that marketing of its opioid drugs raised the operating costs of hospitals.  The agreement also includes TEVA supplying another $49 million of the overdose drug naloxone.  At the same time, HYMLF (Hyundai) and KIMTF (Kia) recalled 91,000 2023-2024 cars over a fire risk.  Simultaneously, a panel of US judges denied GOOGL’s request to pause a TX antitrust lawsuit against the online ad giant.  This came after TX got the case transferred back from NY to a TX court known as “the rocket docket.”

After the close, ABNB, AMZN, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, ATSG, TEAM, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, COIN, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, GEN, ICFI, LNT, MTZ, MODV, MSI, OPEN, PBA, POST, RKT, RYAN, SYK, and VTR all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, AL, BGS, BIO, ED, CTVA, FND, FTNT, MCHP, MNST, ZEUS, and SWN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AES, AGL, EXPI, GDDY, GILD, OTEX, TPC, and RBA all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, COLD, REZI, RMD, and WERN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABNB, COLD, DVA, DKNG, DBX, MODV, MSI, and POST all raised their forward guidance.  However, AMN, MTZ, and OPEN all lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned toward the green side on modest moves.  India (+0.70%), Shenzhen (+0.67%), and Hong Kong (+0.61%) paced the gainers while Singapore (-0.35%), Taiwan (-0.21%), and South Korea (-0.10%) were the only losers in the region.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are more mixed with eight markets in the red and seven in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.15%), DAX (-0.30%), and FTSE (-0.30%) lead on volume while Russia (+1.34%) is the only exchange to move more than a percent in either direction in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly higher start to the day.  The DIA implies a flat open, the SPY is implying a +0.16% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 4.188% and Oil (WTI) is up another 0.28% to $81.78 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Friday includes July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO. There are no reports scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, AMRX, CNK, CRARY, CRBG, ENB, FLR, FYBR, GTN, KUBTY, MGA, OMI, PNM, QRTEB, and WPP all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EVGR, LYB, QRTEA, TIXT, and XPO reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, Unfortunately, ADV, BEP, PNM, and TU missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GTN also lowered its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reported Thursday that S&P 500 companies may be tipping their hand on economic prospects.  Their data shows that major companies have increased capital expenditures (expansion) by 15% in Q2 while buyback program spend is down.  Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia announced it is extending its 1 million barrel per day oil production cut again, this time through the end of September.  Finally, it is worth expanding on the two big reports from Thursday night.  AMZN blew past analyst expectations reporting double-digit growth and gave rosy guidance.  Meanwhile, AAPL beat analyst expectations but reported sales that were down one percent year-over-year.  The company’s main product (iPhones) revenues are down from even earlier in the year (a third consecutive decline) while predicting similar results for the current quarter.

With that background, it looks like markets are trying a modest premarket move. However, the candles of all three major index ETFs are black-bodied, indicating we have fallen down off the premarket highs. All three may try to retest their T-line (8ema) from below today with DIA doing so now. Once again the large-cap indices (SPY and DIA) are also testing a support level. (QQQ’s premarket move higher has it up away from its support level.) As far as extension goes, all of them are close to T-line and T2122 is in the mid-range. So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to run…if they can find momentum. Don’t forget we get July Payrolls data before the opening bell. So volatility remains likely. Also, keep in mind that it’s Friday, Payday. So, take some money off the table to pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bears finally had their day thanks to the Fitch downgrade of the US credit rating.  The SPY gapped down 0.84%, DIA gapped 0.46% lower, and QQQ gapped down 1.19%.  After that open, the Bears followed through until noon in all three major index ETFs.  At that point, SPY and QQQ meandered sideways the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA sold off very slightly from noon for the rest of the day. However, all three major index ETFs did bounce up off the lows in the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us gap-down, large black-bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, DIA printed a gap-down black-bodied Spinning Top-type candle. All three also closed below their T-line (8ema).

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.81%) way out in front (by almost a percent) leading the way lower while Consumer Defensive (-0.06%) was barely in the red and held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 1.39%, DIA lost 0.97%, and QQQ lost 2.19%.  The VXX shot higher by more than 9% on the day to 25.02 and T2122 dropped but remains in the mid-range at 37.02.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.082% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.98% to close at $79.76 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday we saw the first significant Bearish move in a long time.  (First in four weeks in the DIA.)  However, there was no major technical damage done.  It was definitely a Bearish day but unless there is follow-through, support has not been taken out.

The major economic news reported Wednesday included the July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in well above expectations at +324k (compared to a forecast of +189k but also far less than the previous level, which was +497k but was revised down to +455k).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a much bigger than expected drawdown of 17.049 million barrels (versus a forecasted 1.367-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 0.600-million-barrel draw).  Elsewhere, there was also a parade of people from government and business who called the Fitch rating reduction either mistimed at best to flat wrong.  These included Treasury Sec. Yellen who said the decision was “arbitrary and based on outdated data,” and former Treasury Sec. Summers (who is a fiscal hawk and opponent of recent Fed/Treasury actions) called the move “absurd … If anything, the data in the last couple of months has been that the economy is stronger than what people thought, which is good for the creditworthiness of US debt.”  It also included many across the business world, such as JPM’s CEO Dimon who called the decision “ridiculous” but also said “it doesn’t really matter.” Others have commented that there have been no changes since the GOP Congress held the US debt ceiling hostage. (Implying the idea of doing it now when you didn’t do it in June is suspect.)  Still, Fitch did it Tuesday night.  (Personally, I think Fitch waited on, or at least took advantage of, the widely expected Trump Jan. 6 indictment to slip in the rating cut with less media attention.  Not that it helped much.)  Regardless, it is what it is, the US is still the largest economy and safest debt in the world, and we move on.

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In stock news, AAL said Wednesday they have begun talks with both BA and EADSY (Airbus) over a potential order for at least 100 new narrow-body jets.  (Bloomberg reported the order could end up over 200 jets over the next seven years.)  Later, GM and EVGO celebrated the opening of the 1,000^th fast-charging station installed by their collaboration project.  (The first was installed in 2020 and their goal is 3,250 in major metro areas.)  Elsewhere, TSLA has begun leasing office space in India, increasing the speculation the EV-maker will enter the Indian car market after CEO Musk recently had talks with Indian PM Modi.  At the same time, XPEV (Chinese electric carmaker and direct TSLA competitor) shares fell when it was announced its VP of Autonomous Driving had resigned.  Meanwhile, NTR (the world’s largest fertilizer producer) announced it has indefinitely paused plans to ramp up production and has halted work on a new “clean ammonia” project in LA. The announcement cited falling prices and, specifically, the resumption of exports of potash from Belarus (which had been blocked from exports by now-expired sanctions for supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine).  Later, CHK reported that it expects the cost to service oilfields to fall 5%-7% in 2024 due to falling demand causing prices to be lowered.  (This roughly matches FANG’s similar expectation for reduced costs next year, reported last week.)

In stock legal, government, and regulatory news, GSK filed suit against PFE in US federal court on Wednesday alleging that PFE’s “RSV vaccine” violates four of GSK’s patents.  Elsewhere, the UK antitrust regulator announced Wednesday that it is opening an investigation of the CCJ and BEP’s $7.9 billion acquisition of BAM’s (Westinghouse parent) nuclear power plant equipment maker.  Meanwhile, plaintiffs against JNJ have urged a US judge to ban more bankruptcy claims by JNJ for at least six months.  This comes after the same judge denied JNJ’s second attempt in the prior six months to file for bankruptcy of its LTL subsidiary (onto which it had transferred all talc liability).  At the same time, the US Labor Board ruled in a 3-1 decision that business work rules may not interfere with employees’ rights to join unions.  This ruling came against SRCL but now applies broadly.  (The ruling prohibits rules against discussing work conditions, distributing union literature, and prohibiting social media posts by employees.)

After the close, ATUS, AEE, ANSS, APA, BTG, CCRN, CPE, CIVI, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CYH, CW, ETSY, EVH, GXO, HLF, HUBS, KGC, MKL, MCK, MELI, MGM, MKSI, MOD, NCR, NE, PYPL, QRVO, O, HOOD, SIGI, SHOP, SPNT, SNEX, TS, WCN, WTS, and Z all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, ALB, DOX, BKH, CHRW, CENT, CF, CAKE, CODI, HI, NGVT, LESL, LNC, MRO, MET, PK, CNXN, PSA, QCOM, SM, RUN, WMB and WSC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, AFG, CHRD, DASH, NTR, SPG, SBGI, TRIP, and ZG all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ATO, ET, FMC, GT, VAC, OXY, PR, PTVE, UFPI, and UGI missed on both the opt and bottom lines. It is worth noting that ALB, HUBS, QRVO, and SHOP raised their forward guidance.  However, CCRN, NGVT, VAC, and NTR reduced their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian stocks leaned heavily to the red side again.  Only Shanghai (+0.58%) and Shenzhen (+0.53%) were in the green while Taiwan (-1.85%), Japan (-1.68%), and Thailand (-1.37%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar story starting to take shape at midday.  Only Russia (+0.85%) and three smaller bourses are in the green while the CAC (-0.81%), DAX (-0.78%), and FTSE (-0.85%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.25% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking to 4.145% and Oil (WTI) is off one-tenth of a percent to $79.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all three at 8:30 am), July S&P Global Composite PMI and July S&P US Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), June Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, and July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (all three at 10 am), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include GOLF, WMS, APD, BUD, APG, APO, APTV, ARW, BALY, BHC, BCE, BDX, BV, BIP, BRKR, CNQ, FUN, CQP, LNG, CI, CLVT, COMM, COP, CEG, CMI, DQ, DLX, DNB, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, EXPE, FCNCA, FOCS, HAS, DINO, HGV, HII, H, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, K, MMP, MDU, MIDD, MUR, NJR, ONEW, PZZA, PH, PBF, PNW, PBI, PRVA, PWR, REGN, SABR, SBH, SNDR, SRE, FOUR, SO, SAVE, STWD, TRGP, TGNA, TFX, TPX, TKR, BLD, TRMB, VC, VMC, WBD, W, WCC, WLK, and WRK.  Then, after the close, AES, AGL, AL, ATSG, ABNB, LNT, AMZN, COLD, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BGS, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, ED, CTVA, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, EXPI, FND, FTNT, GEN, GILD, GDDY, ICFI, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, PBA, PBR, POST, RMD, RBA, RKT, RYAN, SWN, SYK, TPC, VTR, and WERN report.   

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, we hear from ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO report.

In miscellaneous news, the relevant international standards body proposed its first set of rules for auditing company climate-related disclosures. (The new rules are intended to help auditors give investors reports free of “greenwashing” distortions.)  Elsewhere, after the close, Fitch followed up its US long-term treasury downgrade by also reducing FNMA and Freddie Mac credit ratings.  Just like US bonds, they lowered both ratings from AAA to AA+.  (FNMA and Freddie Mac guarantee roughly 70% of US mortgages.) Meanwhile, in what is hopefully a sign, although the Bud Light boycott by outraged conservatives hurt sales of that brand, the company (BUD) beat on earnings and posted 6.4% revenue growth quarter-on-quarter as well as 2.2% revenue growth from the same quarter last year. The company did miss its previous revenue forecast for the quarter but only by 1.7%. So, hopefully, this shows folks that cancel culture, and culture wars in general, are bad and ineffective ideas. (Can’t we all just get along man? lol)

So far this morning, GOLF, ADDYY, WMS, APG, APTV, BDX, BRKR, CI, CEG, DLX, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, FCNCA, GEL, DINO, IRM, ITT, MIDD, MUR, NTDOY, REGN, SCMWY, TFX, BLD, and TRMB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AHEXY, APD, BUD, BALL, BV, FUN, CLVT, PBF, PRVA, SBH, and WRK missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BCE, HAS, HII, PWR, and VC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BALY, COMM, COP, DQ, ONEW, SAVE, TKR, WBD, and WLK all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that APTV and WIX have raised their forward guidance.  However, ENTG and WCC have both lowered guidance.  

With that background, it looks like again we are trying to open a bit lower. Prices have recovered from the premarket lows to some extent, but we have also now come down off premarket highs. The bears will be looking to get follow through to their best candle in weeks as a premarket struggle at potential support is underway in all three major index ETFs. As far as extension goes, none of them are too far away from their 8ema (T-line) yet and the T2122 indicator is still in the mid-range. So, both sides of the market still have room to run if they can muster the momentum to do so. Also, keep in mind that despite yesterday’s candle, we were due for a pullback and the Bullish trend has not been broken yet. We do have some economic news both this morning and during the day, as well as Trump gets arraigned this afternoon (his last arraignment was a non-event for markets but generated plenty of news coverage). Any of those could potentially give the market a push one way or the other. Plus, remember the heavy earnings schedule, including AAPL and AMZN after the close…and we also get July Payrolls data on Friday. So, be ready for some volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw a mixed start to the day with the SPY gapping down 0.39%, the QQQ gapping down 0.37%, and the DIA opening just 0.11% lower.  However, after the open all three major index ETFs ground sideways with a very modest Bullish trend.  This left both SPY and QQQ inside of their morning gap and DIA modestly above their prior close.  This action gave us a Doji in the SPY, a white-bodied Spinning Top in the QQQ, and a white-bodied candle with a small upper wick in the DIA.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema) with only the QQQ actually retesting that T-line during the day.  This all happened on a well below-average volume in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-1.29%) leading the way lower while Industrials (+0.16%) was the only sector hanging onto the green area.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.19%, DIA gained 0.30%, and QQQ gained 0.05%.  The VXX climbed 1.55% for the day to 22.95 and T2122 dropped back to just outside of the overbought territory at 76.70.  10-year bond yields climbed above the key 4% level to 4.035% while Oil (WTI) was flat to close at $81.73 per barrel. So, Tuesday was another day of indecision and sideways drift where mega-caps again had the strongest showing as we have seen very recently but not all year.

The major economic news reported Tuesday included the July S&P Manufacturing PMI which came in exactly as predicted at 49.0 (compared to a forecast of 49.0 and up from the June reading of 46.3). Shortly afterward, the July ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported a bit lower than expected at 46.4 (versus a forecast of 46.8 but slightly better than the June value of 46.0). At the same time, the July ISM Mfg. Price Index was just a bit better than anticipated at 42.6 (compared to the forecast of 42.8 but up from the June reading of 41.8).  Elsewhere, the June JOLTs Job Openings were lower than expected at 9.582 million (versus a forecast of 9.610 million and the May value of 9.616 million).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report showed a huge surprise drawdown of 15.400 million barrels (compared to an expected draw of only 0.900 million barrels and the prior week’s 1.319-million-barrel inventory build).

In Fed speak, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he thinks the Fed is on track and is bringing down inflation.  However, he hedged his bets on whether or not he thought another hike would be needed in 2023, saying that decision would depend on the data.  Goolsbee told Reuters, “I’m closet optimistic … my forecast is that we manage this, that we walk the fine line of the path that we get inflation down, not immediately but at a reasonable pace without a big, a huge increase, in unemployment.”  He went on to say, “So far so good; it’s a tight line to walk … (but we’re) on the golden path.”   Later in the day, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he doesn’t think the Fed needs to hike rates in September.  In fact, in a Zoom call with reporters, Bostic said that after “significant progress in slowing inflation” there is a growing risk the Fed could overdo tightening, potentially damaging the economy unnecessarily. 

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In stock news, Tuesday CVS announced it will be cutting 5,000 employees to reduce costs.  (CVS had 300,000 employees as of year-end 2022.)  At the same time, F said it has restarted F-150 Lightning pickup production after a six-week shutdown.  The truck maker said after expansion (during the shutdown) they are on track to triple production capacity (to 150,000 trucks/year) by this fall.  Elsewhere, the Financial Times reported that META is preparing to launch AI-powered chatbots as soon as September.  The chatbots will have different “personalities” capable of having human-like discussions with users as the company seeks to boost user engagement to boost retention and increase screen (ad display) time.  At the same time, BRKB-owned BNSF Railway announced it had reached a tentative agreement with the union which represents its locomotive engineers.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that APO (the lead creditor outside of the US government) is nearing a deal that would allow YELL to have cash and come out of bankruptcy.  (YELL is the country’s third-largest trucking company and only filed for bankruptcy on Sunday.)  YELL stock shot up 121.59% on the news.  At the same time, ETRN said it now expects to complete its Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline this year after the US Supreme Court removed the last obstacle last week.

In stock legal, government, and regulatory news, Bloomberg reported Tuesday that TSLA has applied for $100 million in federal grants to build nine semi-truck recharging stations between the TX-Mexico border and Northern CA.  (The TSLA proposal said each station would include eight TSLA truck chargers and four non-TSLA truck chargers.)  Elsewhere, ESLOF (Essilor Luxottica, parent of Lenscrafters) agreed to pay $39 million to consumers in NY, FL, and CA for misleading advertising about the accuracy of automated eye measurement (Accufit).  Then at midday, the NHTSA announced it has opened a new investigation into 280,000 TSLA vehicles over the loss of steering control and loss of power steering.  At the same time, TMO settled a lawsuit by the estate of a woman whose cells have been used as the basis of biomedical research for decades.  The terms of the deal are confidential.  Meanwhile, GM announced a recall of 900 (more) older vehicles due to Takata airbag inflator defects.  (Worldwide, over 100 million cars have been recalled in the last decade for the same defective inflator.)  Finally, META began blocking access to news to its Canadian users as the new law in Canada took effect requiring online publishers to pay news organizations for the news content they create.  (META and GOOGL threatened the same thing in Australia in 2021, but eventually negotiated deals to compensate Australian news outlets.)

After the close, AMD, AFL, ALIT, AIG, AIZ, AXS, BXP, BFAM, CZR, CHK, COLM, EA, EHC, EXAS, FLS, HY, MTCH, MATX, OI, PINS, PXD, SCI, SEDG, SFM, STE, TEX, UIS, UNM, and VRTX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DVN, ULCC, KWR, LUMN, NUS, SBUX, and TX all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ALL, CACC, MOS, and VFC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AXTA, CWH, LFUS, PRU, and JBT all missed on both the top and bottom line.  It is worth noting that AXTA, BFAM, COLM, LFUS, and NUS all lowered their forward guidance.  However, BXP, EHC, SBUX, and TEX all raised their forward guidance.

Overnight, global stocks were sharply lower following a downgrade of US debt rating.  Asian markets were strongly in the red across the board.  Hong Kong (-2.47%), Japan (-2.30%), and South Korea (-1.90%) lead the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with only Russia (+0.63%) in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.65%), DAX (-0.78%), and FTSE (-1.06%) are leading the bourses lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures have recovered some to point toward a modestly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.23% open, the SPY is implying a -0.41% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.68% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 4.017% and Oil (WTI) is up almost one percent to $82.14 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to July ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 am) and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ADNT, ATI, ALGT, ABC, BLCO, BWA, BLDR, BG, CG, CDW, SID, CVS, DD, DVRN, EMR, EXC, RACE, FIS, FDP, FTDR, GRMN, GNRC, GFF, HUM, IBP, JCI, KHC, LPX, DNOW, PSN, PSX, QUAD, RCM, RXO, SMG, SGEN, SPR, SUN, TEVA, TRI, TT, VRSK, VRT, WAT, XYL, and YUM.  Then, after the close, ALB, ATUS, DOX, AEE, AFG, ANSS, APA, ATO, BKH, CHRW, CPE, CENT, CF, CAKE, CHRD, CIVI, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CYH, CODI, CCRN, CW, DASH, ET, ETSY, FMC, GT, GXO, HLF, HI, HUBS, NGVT, KGC, LNC, MRO, MKL, VAC, MMS, MCK, MELI, MET, MGM, MKSI, MOD, NFG, NCR, NTR, OXY, PTVE, PK, PYPL, CNXN, PR, PSA, QRVO, QCOM, O, HOOD, SHOP, SPG, SBGI, RUN, TRIP, UFPI, UGI, U, WCN, WTS, WMB, WSC, ZG, and  Z report.   

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Composite PMI, July S&P US Services PMI, June Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, GOLF, WMS, APD, BUD, APG, APO, APTV, ARW, BALY, BHC, BCE, BDX, BV, BIP, BRKR, CNQ, FUN, CQP, LNG, CI, CLVT, COMM, COP, CEG, CMI, DQ, DLX, DNB, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, EXPE, FCNCA, FOCS, HAS, DINO, HGV, HII, H, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, K, MMP, MDU, MIDD, MUR, NJR, ONEW, PZZA, PH, PBF, PNW, PBI, PRVA, PWR, REGN, SABR, SBH, SNDR, SRE, FOUR, SO, SAVE, STWD, TRGP, TGNA, TFX, TPX, TKR, BLD, TRMB, VC, VMC, WBD, W, WCC, WLK, WRK, AES, AGL, AL, ATSG, ABNB, LNT, AMZN, COLD, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BGS, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, ED, CTVA, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, EXPI, FND, FTNT, GEN, GILD, GDDY, ICFI, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, PBA, PBR, POST, RMD, RBA, RKT, RYAN, SWN, SYK, TPC, VTR, and WERN report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO report.

In miscellaneous news, as mentioned above, Fitch downgraded US debt on Tuesday night, reducing the US long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating from AAA to AA+.  Fitch went on to say they are “expecting fiscal deterioration over the next three years” and also cited “deteriorating governance” based on Congress playing politics with the Debt Ceiling in June. (Global stocks and US Futures both plummeted on the news.)  Meanwhile, ERCOT (the TX electric grid operator) reported that TX electric demand hit a record high for the second straight day.  ERCOT said Tuesday that it still has the resources to meet demand but again urged consumers to reduce their usage.  (ERCOT’s real-time market held prices between $1,000 and $3,000 per MWh at its peak Monday.)  Elsewhere, the main news Tuesday evening was the latest (and third) set of felony indictments of ex-President Trump.  These particular indictments stem from the attempts to illegally overturn his 2020 election loss and were handed down by a Federal Grand Jury in Washington DC.  The actual charges of this set of indictments will remain sealed until Trump is arraigned Thursday. However, the 45-page indictment covers four counts of conspiracy across three major laws and also mentions six unnamed co-conspirators. In addition, the investigation also remains ongoing. So, there is a chance additional charges or co-conspirators are later added to the indictments.

So far this morning, ABC, ADNT, BWA, CDW, CVS, DD, EMR, EXC, FIS, FDP, GRMN, HUM, NMR, PSN, RITM, TEVA, TT, VRT, WAT, and XYL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BLCO, BG, CG, JCI, KHC, RXO, TRI, and YUM all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BGNE, DRVN, GNRC, DNOW, and SUN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, LPX, RACE, RCM, and SMG missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GNRC, RCM, and SMG all lowered their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are working off of the debt downgrade news. The gap lower will take all three major index ETFs back below their T-lines. However, all three are giving us white-bodied candles near the top of their premarket range and are retesting those T-lines. As far as extension goes, all of them are very close to their T-line and the T2122 indicator is outside of, but near, the overbought region. So, both sides of the market have room to run there is room to run if they can summon the momentum to do so. Remember that this is a heavy earnings week (Q2 earnings have been modestly good so far), that we get July Payrolls data at the end of the week, and the Trump indictment (as well as the next one expected to come from Georgia any day) are likely to generate a lot of news and have some potential to cause temporary volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened just on the green side of flat Monday (up 0.10% in SPY, up 0.04% in the DIA, and up 0.10% in the QQQ).  From that point, the three major index ETFs just meandered sideways around that small gap.  This action gave us indecisive candles in the QQQ (a Doji) and a white-bodied Spinning Top candle in the SPY (which closed at the high from Friday).  Meanwhile, the DIA gave us a white-bodied candle that closed on the highs (and above Friday’s high).   All three also remained above their T-line (8ema).  All of this happened on very low volumes in all three major index ETFs.  This ended another strong month, where the SPY gained 3.27%, DIA gained 3.41%, and QQQ gained 3.86%.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.80%) way out front (by two-thirds of a percent) leading the way higher while Consumer Defensive (-0.38%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.19%, DIA gained 0.30%, and QQQ gained 0.05%.  The VXX dropped 1.35% for the day to 22.59 and T2122 popped back up well into the overbought territory at 92.88.  10-year bond yields remained basically flat at 3.959% while Oil (WTI) jumped up another 1.6% to close at $81.88 per barrel. So, Monday was mostly an indecisive day with the mega-cap DIA showing a little strength the last 10 minutes of the day. 

The major economic news reported Monday was limited to Chicago PMI which can in a bit below expectation at 42.8 (compared to a forecast of 43.0 but above the June value of 41.5).  Elsewhere, a Fed survey found that US banks reported that they are using tighter credit standards and are seeing weaker loan demand from both businesses and consumers.  In addition, the Senior Loan Officers also expect to tighten their standards further later this year.

In the oil market, both Brent and WIT rallied to new three-month highs on Monday. The rally was driven by tightening supplies as rumors of Saudi Arabia extending their voluntary production cuts swirled.  In addition, the Kingdom reported their oil output fell 840,000 barrels per day in July.  In addition, widespread belief that the US is likely to avoid a recession has sparked demand-side pressures.  One analyst told Reuters, “After the end of SPR releases … which caused the markets to ignore a looming supply squeeze, the coming supply deficits are getting too big to ignore.” 

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In stock news, WMT announced it had bought out the hedge fund (Tiger Global) which had owned the remaining 23% of Indian e-commerce company Flipkart for $1.4 billion.  (WMT had bought the other 77% of the company in 2018 for $16 billion.) Unlike AMZN, Flipkart focuses on smaller cities and towns in India.  Elsewhere, NKLA stock got a big boost Monday when it was announced that JBHT has placed a contractual order to buy 13 of the NKLA zero-emission (class 8) trucks with deliveries scheduled to begin in August.  At the same time, AMC announced Monday that the Barbie and Oppenheimer movies drove ticket sales, giving the theatre chain its best-ever week of ticket sales.  Meanwhile, NEWR announced it has entered an agreement to be taken private at a buyout price of $87/share in an all-cash deal with two private equity firms.  At midday, ARCHR stock spiked 33% after the Air Taxi company announced the US Air Force had signed a deal to purchase six of the company’s “Midnight” aircraft.  North of the border, BB announced it has been chosen as the mobile software platform by a consortium of contract manufacturers led by Taiwanese Foxconn.  The consortium’s electric vehicle platform will integrate BB’s operating system into six and nine-seat EVs aimed at the Asian market.

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Sunday, YELL ceased operations and filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy after failing to be able to restructure over $1 billion in debt.  ($700 million of that debt is a US pandemic-relief government loan from the Trump era, which gave the Us government a 30% interest in the company).  Then on Monday, and quite interestingly, the UK antitrust watchdog called for public comment on the MSFT acquisition of ATVI ahead of the already-scheduled August 29 “final decision” on deal approval.  Elsewhere, the US NIH announced it has launched a mid-stage clinical trial of four treatments (including PFE’s Paxlovid) for the treatment of “long COVID.”  Later, a class-action suit was filed against YUM’s Taco Bell unit for its “Mexican Pizza” (and several other products) only containing half as much beef and beans as advertised.  It is worth noting that the claimant filed similar suits (which are still pending) against MCD and WEN last year.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that XOM is in talks with TSLA, F, VLKAF (Volkswagen), and other automakers about supplying them with lithium.  Last month XOM entered a deal with TTI to develop 6,100 acres of lithium-rich land in AR.  Finally, the CA Privacy Protection Agency has launched an investigation into the privacy practices of automakers related to the data collected by cars, including internal cameras and navigation monitors.  (The companies being probed were not disclosed.)

After the close, ANET, AVB, BHE, BCC, CWK, HOLX, SBAC, THC, VNO, WELL, WDC, and WWD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AAN, AMKR, CAR, BMRN, CVI, RSG, SANM, and YUMC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CNO, CRC, beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, FANG, HUN, LEG, RYI, SON, TFII, and RIG missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ANET, BMRN, RSG, and WWD all raised their forward guidance.  However, AMKR, SON, and WDC all lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  South Korea (+1.31%), Japan (+0.92%), and Thailand (+0.83%) led the gainers while New Zealand (-0.63%), Malaysia (-0.56%), Shenzhen (-0.36%), and Hong Kong (-0.34%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are leaning toward the red side at midday.  The CAC (-0.80%), DAX (-0.83%), and FTSE (-0.15%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.15% open, the SPY is implying a -0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.28% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have risen to 3.985% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.46% to $81.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Tuesday includes July S&P US Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), July ISM Mfg. PMI and July ISM Mfg. Prices, and JOLTs Job Openings (all at 10 am), and API Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include MO, AME, ARES, BLMN, BP, CAT, CEQP, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, ESAB, IT, GPN, GPK, HWM, HSBC, IDXX, ITW, INCY, NSP, IGT, IQV, JBLU, KMT, LEA, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MAR, MLCO, MRK, TAP, MPLX, NCLH, OSK, PFE, PEG, ROK, SIRI, SWK, SPWR, SGRY, SYY, TM, TRN, UBER, WSO, WEC, ZBRA, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AMD, AFL, ALIT, ALL, AIG, AIZ, AXTA, AXS, BXP, BFAM, CZR, CWH, CHK, COLM, DVN, EA, EHC, EXAS, FLS, ULCC, GNW, GTE, JBT, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MATX, MOS, NUS, PINS, PXD, PRU, KWR, SCI, SEDG, SFM, SBUX, STE, SU, TEX, TX, UNM, VRTX, and VFC report.     

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q2 Unit Labor Costs, July S&P Global Composite PMI, July S&P US Services PMI, June Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, July ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, July Avg. Hourly Earnings, July Nonfarm Payrolls, July Participation Rate, July Private Nonfarm Payrolls, and July Unemployment Rate are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, ATI, ALGT, ABC, BLCO, BWA, BLDR, BG, CG, CDW, SID, CVS, DD, DVRN, EMR, EXC, RACE, FIS, FDP, FTDR, GRMN, GNRC, GFF, HUM, IBP, JCI, KHC, LPX, DNOW, PSN, PSX, QUAD, RCM, RXO, SMG, SGEN, SPR, SUN, TEVA, TRI, TT, VRSK, VRT, WAT, XYL, YUM, ALB, ATUS, DOX, AEE, AFG, ANSS, APA, ATO, BKH, CHRW, CPE, CENT, CF, CAKE, CHRD, CIVI, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CYH, CODI, CCRN, CW, DASH, ET, ETSY, FMC, GT, GXO, HLF, HI, HUBS, NGVT, KGC, LNC, MRO, MKL, VAC, MMS, MCK, MELI, MET, MGM, MKSI, MOD, NFG, NCR, NTR, OXY, PTVE, PK, PYPL, CNXN, PR, PSA, QRVO, QCOM, O, HOOD, SHOP, SPG, SBGI, RUN, TRIP, UFPI, UGI, U, WCN, WTS, WMB, WSC, ZG, and  Z.  On Thursday, GOLF, WMS, APD, BUD, APG, APO, APTV, ARW, BALY, BHC, BCE, BDX, BV, BIP, BRKR, CNQ, FUN, CQP, LNG, CI, CLVT, COMM, COP, CEG, CMI, DQ, DLX, DNB, EPC, ENTG, EPAM, EXPE, FCNCA, FOCS, HAS, DINO, HGV, HII, H, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, K, MMP, MDU, MIDD, MUR, NJR, ONEW, PZZA, PH, PBF, PNW, PBI, PRVA, PWR, REGN, SABR, SBH, SNDR, SRE, FOUR, SO, SAVE, STWD, TRGP, TGNA, TFX, TPX, TKR, BLD, TRMB, VC, VMC, WBD, W, WCC, WLK, WRK, AES, AGL, AL, ATSG, ABNB, LNT, AMZN, COLD, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, TEAM, BGS, BIO, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, ED, CTVA, DVA, DKNG, DBX, EOG, EXPI, FND, FTNT, GEN, GILD, GDDY, ICFI, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, PBA, PBR, POST, RMD, RBA, RKT, RYAN, SWN, SYK, TPC, VTR, and WERN report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from ADV, AMR, AXL, AMRX, BSAC, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EVRG, FLR, FYBR, GTES, GLP, GTN, GPRE, LSXMK, LSXMA, LYB, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PPL, QRTEA, TU, TIXT, TNC, and XPO report.

In miscellaneous late-breaking news, overnight AMZN expanded its “Virtual Clinic” telemedicine nationwide.  The service, which was launched on a trial basis in November, will connect patients to healthcare providers for common ailments in all 50 states.  (AMZN does not provide the medical care, but instead works through unlisted medical practice partner firms.)  Also overnight, China survey data showed manufacturers reporting “muted” foreign demand in July.  Meanwhile, Chinese home sales fell the most they have in a year hitting that country’s beleaguered real estate market yet again.

So far this morning, MO, AME, ARES, BLMN, CAT, ETN, ESAB, IT, GPN, HWM, IGT, HSBC, IDXX, INCY, IQV, JBLU, LEA, LDOS, LGIH, MAR, MPC, MRK, TAP, MPLX, OSK, SIRI, SWK, TM, and ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CEQP, PFE, and WEC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TRN beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, BP, EPD, GPK, KMT, ROK, UBER, and ZBRA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (DORM, ECL, ITW, NSP, MLCO, NCLH, PEG, SPWR, SGRY, SYY, and WSO all report closer to the opening bell.)   It is worth noting that MRK has raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are working on a modest inside-day push within the recent consolidation. All three index ETFs are giving us small, black-body candles that are making modest losses versus Monday’s close. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-lines (8ema), but the QQQ and SPY look like they may try a retest this morning. As far as extension goes, none of them are far from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is now well into (though not at the top-end of) the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Remember that this is a heavy earnings week (Q2 earnings have been modestly good so far) and that we get July Payrolls data at the end of the week.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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