Inflation Waning and Op-Ex Friday Today

Markets opened lower on Thursday but then proceeded to put in a nothing day.  The SPY “gapped” down 0.10%, the DIA opened 0.18% lower, and the QQQ gapped down 0.21%.  However, as mentioned, the rest of the day was a sideways meander in all three major index ETFs, crossing and recrossing the gap and never straying too far away from it at either the peaks or valleys.  This action gave us indecisive, white-body, Spinning Top candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  (The QQQ had the largest of the bodies.)   The SPY could also be seen as a Bullish Engulfing candle if you squint.  All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50sma.  This happened on average volume in the DIA, and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.00%) way out front leading the way lower while Utilities (+0.44%) held up far better than any other sector.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 0.09%.  The VXX fell more than 1.5% to close at 18.85 and T2122 dropped back down into its mid-range at 66.67.  10-year bond yields dropped to 4.443% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.87% to close at $72.93 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a holding pattern with markets waffling sideways all day.  We were able to relieve some over-extension by marking time (giving the T-line time to make up ground), which was greatly needed.  However, for the most part, it was just an indecisive pause day in a Bullish rally.

The major economic news reported Thursday included the October Month-on-Month Export Price Index, which came in far below expectation at -1.1% (compared to a forecast of -0.5% and far below the September value of +0.5%).  At the same time, the October Month-on-Month Import Price Index also came in far below anticipated at -0.8% (versus a forecast of -0.3% and far below the September reading of +0.4%).  Both of these show that inflationary pressures are falling, despite the narrative of some.  Meanwhile, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were greater than predicted at 231k (which was a three-month high, compared to a forecast of 220k and far above the prior week’s 218k).  At the same time, The Philly Fed Mfg. Index was reported better than expected but still showing deteriorating conditions at -5.9 (versus a -9.0 forecast and a -9.0 previous reading).  Later, October Month-on-Month Industrial Production came in lower than predicted at -0.6% (compared to a forecast of -0.3% and far below the Sept. value of +0.1%).  On a year-on-year basis, Oct. Industrial Production was down 0.68% well below the Sept. reading of -0.16%.  (It should be noted, that the UAW strikes had a not insignificant impact on the October Industrial Production.)  Then, at the close, Sept. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions fell by $1.7 billion (massively below the forecast of +$89.4 billion and the Aug. value of +$62.2 billion).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet continued to fall with a current value of $7.815 trillion (down $46 billion from the prior week’s $7.861 trillion).

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In stock news, RWT announced Thursday that it had signed a long-term contract from TM to supply the Japanese carmaker’s new NC plant with EV battery materials.  RWT expects to provide enough battery materials to supply 1 million EVs per year with a long-term goal of multiplying that by five (5 million vehicles per year). At the same time, Reuters reported that LLY had agreed to invest $2.19 billion to build a German plant to produce products, addressing a supply chain weakness identified by the COVID pandemic.  Later, after a long and harrowing vote, UAW members ratified the union’s deal with GM.  Attention shifts to F, whose vote ends Friday, and then STLA where the vote ends on Tuesday.  Speaking of GM, the company suspended its Cruise robo-taxi unit employee equity program.  Elsewhere, NTRS announced that it has been chosen to manage COST’s $29 billion retirement plan.  At the same time, TW announced it had acquired algo trading firm r8fin for an undisclosed amount in a deal that will close in 2024.  Later, AMZN announced it would sell HYMTF (Hyundai) cars online starting in 2024.  At the same time, employees at hundreds of SBUX stores walked off their jobs during a store promotional event Thursday, demanding improved staffing and better schedules.  Later, FUJHY (Subaru) is the latest carmaker to raise the wages of its employees and improve healthcare and other benefits following the UAW deals with the big 3 automakers.  After the close, Bloomberg reported that after already delaying its attempt to replace QCOM modem chips with “internally designed” (read “stolen and reverse engineered”) for a year, AAPL now appears likely to miss its latest revised goal of Q2 2025 for the project.  At this point, Bloomberg reported late Q4 2025 looks more likely.  In addition, in a reversal of company tradition going back to its inception, AAPL has again agreed to use industry standards.  This time, it will adopt the industry standard messaging protocol after stubbornly refusing for years.  This will make AAPL to Android messaging much easier and smoother.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, FMC was hit with a class-action lawsuit on behalf of investors.  The suit alleges the company failed to disclose critical information about legal defeats and weakening patent protections.  Across the pond, CRSP and VRTX have both achieved milestones in the UK, gaining conditional approval for their gene-edited treatment for sickle cell anemia. At the same time, the Portuguese sister subsidiary of ATUS announced it has found violations during its internal probe after a summer corruption scandal.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that regulators are pushing WFC to improve its internal monitoring to detect financial crime at the banks as the company faces a lawsuit alleging it allowed a Las Vegas attorney to operate a Ponzi scheme.  Elsewhere, perhaps in response to political pressure (or perhaps in response to sexual misconduct charges against the FDIC Chair), the FDIC unexpectedly and abruptly canceled a planned meeting on Thursday where the topic was to be a special bank fee on large banks to cover the costs of the March bank failures.  (The cancellation came 15 minutes after the start of the meeting.)  At the deadline, AMZN and TikTok both said they would appeal the EU designation as “gatekeeper” platforms.  (MSFT, AAPL, and GOOGL did not challenge the designation, which brings additional regulatory compliance requirements.)  Later, MS agreed to pay a settlement of $6.5 million to a group of states over negligence that led to a data breach covering millions of customers.  After the close, Reuters reported that according to three sources, AMAT is under US criminal investigation for evading export restrictions on shipments to China via South Korea.  At the same time, bankrupt RAD filed suit against the US Dept. of Justice in the hope of ending a lawsuit against the company for its responsibility in opioid abuse.  Meanwhile, the US ended the evidence phase of its antitrust lawsuit against GOOGL.  At the same time, a US judge rejected bids to dismiss several hundred cases, saying that Kia and HYMTF must face suits claiming they are responsible for auto thefts due to negligence and refusal to change software widely seen as easy to hack (YouTube how-to videos describe it in-depth.)

After the close, QFIN, AMAT, BZH, CPRT, GPS, GLOB, HI, POST, ROST, and WWD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, MATW, UGI, and ZTO all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that GPS and UGI lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again but leaned toward the down side.  Hong Kong (-2.12%) was by far (by 1.50%) the biggest loser while Japan (+0.48%) led the five (of 12) gaining exchanges.  In Europe, things are much more bullish as only Russia (-0.21%) is in the red at midday.  The CAC (+0.79%), DAX (+0.78%), and FTSE (+0.82%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, but the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down again to 4.408% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.37% to $73.88 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.).  Friday is also options expiration day in the market.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ATKR, BJ, and SPB.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close. 

In geopolitical news, China and the US continued to “make nice” on Thursday.  Both sides expressed that there does not need to be conflict with China saying it is not trying to supplant the US as the world’s leading economic power.  Both also said that the two can be both cooperative and competitive.  However, the relations are and will remain an “uneasy coopetition” as President Biden said he stood by previous comments that Xi is a dictator and China stood by claims the US is the aggressor in the relationship.  Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the Israeli offensive in Gaza continues.  On Thursday, the IDF invaded the largest hospital in Gaza, claiming to have found weapons caches and the entrance to a “Hamas tunnel.”  It was reported overnight that the release of 50 more hostages held by Hamas (a deal brokered by Qatar) is being held up.  The point causing the delay is that Israel only wants to provide enough of a cease-fire for the 50 civilians to be transferred out of Gaza, while Hamas wants a 3-day truce in return for that exchange.  In related news, Ukraine is suffering from a severe reduction in the amount of ammunition being supplied to it.  Ukraine’s Western supporters have fallen victim to political theatre in their own countries (meaning politicians feeling the need to express support for Israel by making Israeli military aid the priority).  While the IDF will gladly accept all this largess, the truth is they had more than enough weapons and ammunition to wipe Gaza off the map in their stockpile prior to the Hamas atrocity back in October.  So, Russia is the beneficiary of the Western response to the Hamas terror attack.

In encouraging miscellaneous news, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan rate fell to a two-month low this week at 7.44%.  The agency noted a decrease in inflation leading to the decline.  (The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also fell to 6.76%, down from 6.81% the prior week.)  Elsewhere, the American Farm Bureau reported that the cost to prepare Thanksgiving dinner will be 4.5% LOWER this year than in 2022.  The group’s survey found that seven of the 11 ingredients of their “standard Thanksgiving meal” are lower priced than they were in 2022, including a 5.6% decrease in Turkey prices. Overall, it is looking like the naysayers of Fed actions were wrong, both prices and inflation are falling, and a soft landing may well still be in the cards at this point.

So far this morning, SPB reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, BJ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, ATKR missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SPB has lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like all three major index ETFs are looking to make a small gap higher to start off Friday. All three are trading higher at this point with SPY and QQQ printing white-bodied candles during the early session while DIA gapped more but is printing a black premarket candle. All three candles are small at this point, indicating not a lot of conviction. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. The downtrend going back to summer has also been well-broken in all three charts. So, the Bulls are in control of both the short-term and 4-5-month trend. This is all on the strength of a dramatic rally over two weeks. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs remain a bit stretched above their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator has now dropped back into its mid-range. So, we may still have room to run in either direction, but more of a pause of pullback would definitely be healthy for the rally. With that said, keep in mind that the market can remain overbought longer than you can last predicting a reversal too soon. Finally, remember this is Friday, payday, and time to prepare your account for the weekend news cycle. On top of that, this is an Options Expiration Friday, so don’t be surprised by some volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Philly Fed, Jobless Claims, and Fed Talk

The market gapped higher and then was divergently indecisive on Wednesday.  The SPY opened 0.28% higher, the DIA gapped up 0.24%, and the QQQ opened 0.52% higher.  At that point, the QQQ wandered around below and returned to its opening level.  Meanwhile, SPY meandered back and forth around its opening level and DIA meandered above its open.  All that changed at about 11:30 a.m. when DIA began a slow, steady rally that lasted the rest of the day.  At the same time, QQQ sold off until 1:20 p.m. (recrossing its gap and prior close in the process) before rallying back into the gap and bobbing along the prior close the rest of the day.  And for its part, SPY traded sideways, briefly retested the opening gap, and returned to a sideways grind along the open before dropping back into the gap the last 20 minutes.  This action gave us a gap-up, black-bodied. Spinning Top in the SPY, a gap-up, black-bodied large-body Spinning Top in the QQQ, and a gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (0.89%) out front leading the way higher while Energy (-0.42%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.16%, DIA gained 0.49%, and QQQ gained 0.08%.  The VXX fell more than 2% to close at 19.15 and T2122 backed off just a bit but remains deep in overbought territory at 96.43.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.543% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.2% to close at $76.53 per barrel. So, Wednesday was another in the two-week string of bullish says.  This one is more indecisive than most as we get extended from the T-line (8ema).  This was the least we could expect after such a strong bullish showing on Tuesday.  It is also worth noting that all three major index ETFs had lower-than-average volume, with SPY having significantly lower volume.

The major economic news reported Wednesday included Oct. Month-on-Month Core PPI, which came in much better than expected at 0.0% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and a Sept. reading of +0.2%).  At the same time, the headline Oct. Month-on-Month PPI was dramatically lower than expected at -0.5% (compared to a forecast of +0.1% and a September value of +0.4%).  In addition, Oct. Month-on-Month Core Retail Sales came in stronger than predicted at +0.1% (versus the -0.2% forecast but still well below the Sept. +0.8%). The headline Oct. Month-on-Month Retail Sales fell 0.1% (compared to a forecasted fall of 0.3% and down a full percent from September’s +0.9%).  At the same time, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was much stronger than anticipated at 9.10 (versus a -2.80 forecast and a -4.60 September value).   Later, September Business Inventories held steady at 0.4% (the same as the forecast and prior reading).  However, September Retail Inventories were a bit higher than expected at +0.4% (versus the +0.3% forecast but still better than the August +0.5% value).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger-than-predicted inventory build of 3.600 million barrels (compared to a forecast of +1.793 million barrels but still far lower than the prior week’s +13.869 million barrels).

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In stock news, MFC said Wednesday it will buy London-based alternative credit manager CQS for an unspecified amount.  (CQS had $13.5 billion in assets under management as of Oct. 31.)  At the same time, regulatory filings showed that BRKB has liquidated its entire GM (22 million shares) and ATVI positions.  BRKB also began a SIRI position by purchasing 10 million shares.  All this was during Q3.  Elsewhere, TM announced that its Camry (best-selling car in the US) will go all-hybrid in the 2025 model year.  Later, MSFT announced it is releasing its own AI chips (MSFT designed but made by other companies).  The new chip (Maia) will be used to power MSFT’s subscription for $30/mo. “Copilot” AI service.  MSFT said the chip will become available in 2024.  At the same time, CZNS (the 28th largest mortgage lender in the US) announced the closure of its wholesale mortgage lending channel.  CZNS cited declining mortgage volumes and intense competition in the announcement.  Later, SNES announced a reverse stock split, effective at the close on Nov. 16.  The board has not yet decided on the specifics but it will be between 1-for-2 and 1-for-12 shares. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, NATO announced Wednesday that it will replace its aging fleet of 14 AWACS planes with a military version of the BA 737.  The deal of an unspecified value (billions) will be signed in 2024.  Later, AWKFN was given UK approval for a second phase of clinical trial on its severe alcohol Use Disorder treatment.  Later, a bipartisan group of US Senators asked META for documentation related to senior executives’ knowledge of mental and physical health harm associated with its platform before Nov. 30.  Meanwhile, NY state sued PEP, accusing the company of polluting the environment through its single-use plastic wrappers and containers.  At the same time, the FDA (which declined to approve the drug in January of 2022) noted concerns about the data MRK provided on its chronic cough drug.  The FDA said the data might not be enough to prove meaningful benefit.  Overseas, the French Supreme Court upheld serious charges but revised the previous $2 billion penalties against UBS for money laundering and illegal customer solicitation.  The move mandates a new trial at the Paris Court of Appeals to determine the correct damages.  In Greece, both JNJ and CL were fined for violating that country’s profit-cap law prior to the end of 2021 (COVID period).  This follows the same type of fines levied on UL on Nov. 2.  After the close, Reuters reported that ADBE will open remedy discussions with the EU in order to get its acquisition of Figma approved.

After the close, CSCO, CPA, JJSF, PANW, SNEX, and TTEK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, MMS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CSCO lowered and PANW raised forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side on the strength of moves.  Hong Kong (-1.36%), Shenzhen (-1.23%), and Shanghai (-0.71%) led the region lower while India (+0.46% paced the gainers.  In Europe, only two of the 15 bourses are in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.46%), DAX (+0.31%), and FTSE (-0.49%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.22% open, the SPY is implying a -0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.504% and Oil (WTI) is off another percent to $75.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Oct. Export Priced Index, Oct. Import Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), Oct. Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), and the Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Williams (9:25 a.m.), Fed Governor Kroszner (10 a.m.), Waller (10:30 a.m.), and Mester (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open include BABA, ARCO, BBWI, BERY, BV, DDL, DOLE, M, NICE, WMT, and WSM.  Then, after the close, QFIN, AMAT, BZH, CPRT, GPS, GLOB, HI, MATW, POST, ROST, UGI, WWD, and ATO report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts.  Friday is also options expiration day.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday we hear from ATKR, BJ, and SPB.

In miscellaneous news, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Biden on Wednesday.  The meeting was mostly symbolic although the two countries agreed to high-level military-to-military contacts.  (However, the top Chinese military posts, Minister of Defense and Head of the Chinese Army are both vacant at the moment.)  China also agreed to take action to curb fentanyl chemical export in exchange for sanctions relief on a Chinese state security agency.  Later, Xi was schmoozed at dinner by the CEOs of BLK, BX, MSFT, C, V, XOM, TSLA, PFE, QCOM, AVGO, and others hoping to curry favor at a $40,000/plate dinner.  Elsewhere, the Senate was scheduled to vote on the stop-gap CR to avert a government shutdown Wednesday night.  Leaders of both parties support the House bill. However, a single Senator could cause a shutdown by requiring procedural moves that would prevent a vote before Saturday. (In late-breaking news, the Senate did overwhelmingly approve the bill and has now sent it to President Bibden’s desk for signature to avert the government shutdown until at least January.)

In UAW news, oh what a difference a day makes. Just a day after it seemed on the brink of failure, the union’s contract with GM is now on the verge of approval.  More than 60% of GM’s huge Arlington TX plant approved the contract.  This increased the approval margin to 54% vs 46% opposed, giving approval a 2,500 vote lead with only nine facilities left to vote.  (GM voting ends Thursday at 4 p.m. Eastern, but the majority of votes have already been cast.)   Approval of the F contract is ahead with 66% in favor of approval (the F vote ends Friday, but again, most votes have already been cast) and STLA approval is essentially a lock with 72% voting in favor with that vote scheduled to end next Tuesday.

So far this morning, BABA, ARCO, BBWI, M, NICE, WMT, and WMG have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BERY, DDL, DOLE, and NTES all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, PLCE, ONEW, and SIEGY all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BV missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BBWI and BERY both lowered their forward guidance.  However, M and NICE both raised their guidance.  

With that background, all three major index ETFs are trading lower in the premarket session and have printed black-bodied candles that are now at or near the early session lows. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend, and the bullish breakout of consolidation is still in play. All three also remain significantly above the downtrend line going back to summer. In other words, the longer-term downtrend remains broken. So, the Bulls are back in control of the longer-term trend on the strength of a hard rally of the last two weeks. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are still stretched far above their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is at the top end of its overbought territory. So, we are definitely still in need of at least a rest, if not a pullback soon. With that said, remember the market can remain overbought longer than you can last predicting a reversal too soon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Bulls are on a Roll

The bulls are on a roll extending the indexes on Wednesday with better-than-expected retail numbers in the short-term government spending bill to avoid shutdown worries until after the holidays.  Today investors will key off earnings reports with a big box retail theme and a busy economic calendar full of reports and Fed speakers.  Although the fear of missing out is strong right now be wary of chasing this parabolic because a pullback to punish those last in the door could begin at any time.  That said it is entirely possible the extremely bullish enthusiasm could remain through the rest of the week so plan carefully.

Asian market closed mostly lower overnight seeming not very encouraged by the U.S.-China talks.  European markets trade cautiously mixed this morning with consumer weakness worries as luxury brand seller Burberry posted disappointing results.  U.S. futures also suggest a hesitation to keep driving higher this morning ahead of a busy day of earning and economic reports. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday include BABA, AMAT, BBWI, BZH, BERY, BORR, BRC, BV, DLB, DOLE, GPS, M, POST, ROST, SCVL, SSYS, UGI, WMG, WMT, & ZTO.

News & Technicals’

China’s President Xi Jinping delivered a message of cooperation to U.S. business leaders on Wednesday, after meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden for the first time since he took office. Xi said that China and the U.S. have to choose between being partners or adversaries, and urged them to work together on global issues such as climate change, trade, and pandemic response. He also announced that China would send two of its giant pandas to the San Diego Zoo, as a gesture of goodwill and friendship. The dinner, which was held in San Francisco, was part of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference, where leaders from 21 countries discussed ways to boost economic growth and cooperation in the region.

Cisco, a leading provider of networking and communication products and services, reported its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, beating the analysts’ expectations. However, the company’s guidance for the next quarter was lower than anticipated, as the company faced a slowdown in product orders from its customers. The company explained that its customers were busy implementing the Cisco products and services that they had purchased in the previous quarters, and therefore had less demand for new orders. The company also said that it was facing some supply chain challenges and higher costs due to the global chip shortage and the pandemic. The company’s shares fell by 4% in after-hours trading.

The Congress has averted a government shutdown for now, by passing a short-term funding bill on Wednesday night. The bill, which would keep the government running until February 18, 2024, received bipartisan support in the Senate, with 87 senators voting for it and 11 voting against it. The bill had already passed the House of Representatives on Tuesday. The bill now goes to President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign it into law. The bill also includes some emergency funding for disaster relief, health care, and defense. The bill does not address the debt ceiling, which is expected to be reached by mid-December. The Congress will have to deal with the debt ceiling and other contentious issues, such as immigration and social spending, after the holidays.

The bulls are on a roll this week, reaching up in a parabolic bull run trying once again to anticipate how the FOMC will approach the rates in the future. However, it would be wise to keep in mind that the market’s track record on Fed predictions has been 100% wrong over the last year. The positive mood continued Wednesday, as retail sales beat the forecasts and producer prices moderated. Another factor that boosted the confidence of investors was the House passing a bill to prevent government shutdown worries until after the holidays. We have a busy day of economic reports and Fed speakers on the economic calendar with a big box retail theme on the earnings calendar to keep investors guessing in the current extremely over-bought parabolic conditions.  Be very careful chasing stocks higher as a pullback could begin at any time.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Market Raced Higher

A milder-than-expected inflation report than analysts forecast produced a huge morning gap that continued to extend in wild bullish exuberance.  Although the T2122 indicator suggests a short-term extreme overbought condition there is a very good chance the QQQ will make a new high for the year in the remarkable reversal.  The bull or bears will look for inspiration in Mortgage Apps, PPI, Retail Sales, Empire State MFG, Business Inventories, Petroleum Status, Fed speakers, and a dozen or so notable earnings reports.  Avoid the fear of missing out chase as it is highly likely a pullback or at a minimum a longer choppy market consolidation is just around the corner.  I would not rule out a substantial whipsaw to punish those last-minute buyers.

While we slept Asian markets reacted in kind closing green across the board with Japan and Hong Kong zooming while China was only able to muster a 0.55% gain.  Across the pond, European markets are looking to extend the bullish celebration currently decidedly green across the board. U.S. Futures also want to keep the party going headed for another gap up open ahead of earnings and economic reports.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday include AAP, CTLT, CSCO, CPA, DAVA, HI, JJSF, JD, KLIC, PANW, SONO, TGT, TTEK, & TJX.

News & Technicals’

Congress has reached a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown that would have affected millions of Americans. The House passed a bill on Saturday that would fund the government for another 45 days, with bipartisan support from both Republicans and Democrats. The bill also includes billions of dollars for disaster relief but does not include any new aid for Ukraine, which was part of a separate agreement in the Senate. The Senate quickly approved the bill by unanimous consent, and President Biden signed it into law. The bill will give lawmakers more time to negotiate a longer-term funding solution and address other pressing issues, such as the debt ceiling and the Biden administration’s request for additional security assistance to Israel and Ukraine.

The economy shrank by 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, reversing the 4.8% growth in the previous quarter, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was worse than the 0.6% contraction that analysts had expected. The economy also contracted by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, compared to a 0.1% decline that was forecast. The data showed that the recovery from the pandemic-induced recession was losing momentum, as consumer spending, business investment, and exports all slowed down. The third quarter GDP data was the last major economic indicator before the presidential election on November 7.

The U.K. inflation rate dropped to its lowest level in two years in October, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The consumer price index, which measures the changes in the prices of goods and services, fell to 4.6% year-on-year in October, down from 6.7% in September. This was lower than the 4.8% that economists had predicted. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index was unchanged in October. The core consumer price index, which excludes the prices of food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, also declined to 5.7% year-on-year in October, from 6.1% in September. The main factors that contributed to the lower inflation rate were the decreases in the prices of clothing, footwear, furniture, household goods, and recreation and culture. The inflation rate is still above the Bank of England’s target of 2%, but the central bank expects it to fall further in the coming months. The lower inflation rate could ease some of the pressure on consumers, who have been facing higher costs of living and lower wage growth.

The stock market raced higher on Tuesday after a milder-than-expected inflation report, which showed both the overall and the core CPI inflation rates lower than what analysts had forecasted. All the sectors in the S&P 500 index gained, with the real estate sector leading the way with a 5% increase. The sectors that benefit from economic growth, such as technology, communication, consumer discretionary, and small-cap stocks, also performed well. The bond market reacted positively to the inflation report, as the yields on the 10-year and the 2-year Treasury bonds dropped to around 4.45% and 4.85%, respectively. Today we have about a dozen notable earnings reports with Mortgage Apps, PPI, Retail Sales, Empire State MFG, Business Inventories, Petroleum Status, and some Fed speakers for the bull or bears to find inspiration.  The T2122 is now in a short-term extreme overbought condition so a pullback or consolidation could begin at any time but expect the price action to be wildly volatile if the current exuberance begins to fade.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

PPI Today and TGT Blowout Earnings

Tuesday saw the Bulls run after a better-than-expected CPI report. SPY gapped 1.37% higher, DIA opened 1.16% higher, and QQQ gapped up 1.72%.  All three major index ETFs followed through for the first hour or two.  At that point, all three began to slowly take profits, melting back toward the opening levels until 2 p.m.  Then we saw a strong and steady rally that took all three to the highs of the day at about 3:20 p.m. in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  From there, we saw more profit-taking the rest of the day.  This action gave us huge gap-up, white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The DIA printed a Spinning Top, the QQQ gave us sort of a large-body Spinning Top, and the SPY printed a large-body white candle with an upper wick.  (QQQ also gave us the highest close since mid-July.)  This all happened on average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+4.19%) out in front leading the way higher while Energy (+1.20%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.94%, DIA gained 1.41%, and QQQ gained 2.15%.  (It’s worth noting that IWM was up a massive 5.45%.)  The VXX fell 0.76% (not as much as many would have thought) to close at 19.56 and T2122 shot up to the top of its overbought territory at 97.11.  10-year bond yields climbed dropped hard to 4.451% and Oil (WTI) was flat at +0.08% to close at $78.34 per barrel.  So, Tuesday wasn’t even a fight.  The major index ETFs gapped strongly higher, followed through (never testing the gap), and even after a little profit-taking put in the strongest day since April.   

The major economic news reported Tuesday included October Core CPI, which came in lower than expected at +0.2% month-on-month (compared to a forecast and Sept. values of +0.3%).  On a year-on-year basis, October Core CPI was also lower than was anticipated at +4.0% (versus a forecast and September reading of +4.1%).  At the same time, the headline year-on-year October CPI came in below predictions at +3.2% (compared to a forecast of +3.3% and much better than the Sept. value of +3.7%).  On a month-to-month basis, the October CPI was dead flat at 0.0% (versus the forecast of +0.1% and much better than September’s +0.4% reading).  On top of all of this, note that the Bureau of Labor Statistics changed the way it estimates the cost of healthcare.  So, these readings are about 0.1% higher than they would have been if they were calculated using last month’s method.  In other words, inflation fell more than the decrease indicated above. Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report came in at +1.355 million barrels (compared to a forecasted build of 1.400 million barrels but far lower than the prior week’s +11.900 million barrels).

In Fed Speak news, early Tuesday, FOMC Vice-Chair Jefferson (a hawk) told a European conference that “monetary policymakers may need to take more forceful action to keep inflation expectations anchored.”  (However, he was speaking to European central bankers and did not specify that his remarks were related to the US.)  At the same conference, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (an ultra-hawk) warned that despite a period of “nice disinflation” the battle against inflation is not yet won.  He pointed out that in the US, the PCE Inflation number has only fallen to 3.7%, which is still well above the Fed’s 2% target number.  (To be clear, both presentations were made hours before the CPI data was released.  However, both may well have had the numbers prior to release.)

Click for video

In stock news, RENB and GEDiCube Intl. have agreed to a merger and will now be called Renovaro.AI.  (This is the first merger of an AI company with a biotech firm.) At the same time, BXD announced it had agreed to sell its 45% interest in two MA properties for $1.66 billion.  (The properties are in a biotech hotspot populated by MRNA among others and one of the properties has been pre-leased by AZN although still under construction.)  Later, PFE announced it will cut 500 jobs in the UK as part of a $3.5 billion cost-cutting plan.  At the same time, JAZZ struck a deal with a spinoff from GSK (Autifony Therapeutics).  Under the deal, JAZZ will pay up to $770.5 million if Autifony develops two drugs according to schedule.  JAZZ would then take over the clinical testing, manufacturing, regulatory approvals, and commercialization of the drugs.  Elsewhere, RIVN revealed Tuesday that it will borrow $15 billion under a kind of “phantom bond” issued by its joint-development partner in order to pay for the construction of its GA production plant.  Later, ABNB announced plans to acquire GamePlanner.AI (and AI startup) for an undisclosed sum.  At the same time, Reuters reports that five sources tell it GS is strongly considering paying higher bonuses to top traders and dealmakers in order to prevent poaching by competitors.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, CTLT reported to the SEC that it is delaying its quarterly report due to taking an “impairment charge” of around $700 million related to acquisitions by its consumer health business.  (CTLT delayed its annual results several times earlier in the year, blaming production problems.)  The company told the SEC it would report on Wednesday instead of Tuesday.  Later, a NY judge narrowed the scope of WBD’s lawsuit against PARA over the streaming rights to the adult cartoon “South Park.”  At the same time, Reuters reported that ADBE will be given an EU antitrust warning in the next few days (related to its $20 bid to buy cloud-based platform Figma).  The move is reportedly intended to pressure ADBE to offer divestment remedies to appease European competitors.  Elsewhere, in a move that is contrary to what GOP-run states are doing, the ECB issued a stern warning to banks that operate in the Eurozone.  The warning, issued by the central bank’s vice-chair, told of significant penalties if the banks do not improve their Climate and Environment risk management.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice asked a judge to dismiss its suit brought against affiliates of UNH which had alleged the firms violated antitrust law by prohibiting employees from moving from one company to another.  In a side note to a case, investment bank BCS (Barclays) has begun telling clients it believes GOOGL will lose its antitrust case brought by the US Dept. of Justice related to their browser market practices, which the US alleges breach antitrust law.  Later, ACHR was hit with an investor lawsuit claiming the company misrepresented its electric VTOL aircraft.  In the same vein, investors filed suit against BCLI alleging the biotech company issued misleading statements about the prospects for its ALS drug.  Later, a US district judge in CA ruled against GOOGL, META, SNAP, and TikTok attempts to have a lawsuit dismissed.  The judge ruled the suit, which alleges the companies illegally enticed and addicted millions of teens to their platform causing the users mental health damage, can proceed.  (This ruling covers hundreds of suits that are likely to become a large single class action suit at some point.)  After the close, the FDA warned AMZN about the sale of seven unapproved eyedrops on the company’s platform, citing both unproven claims (false advertising) and health risks in the letter.  Also after the close, CHTR agreed to pay the SEC $25 million related to unauthorized stock buybacks between 2017 and 2021.

After the close, NU reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board (following Tuesday’s US rally).  Hong Kong (+3.92%), Japan (+2.52%), and South Korea (+2.20%) led that region higher but large gains were widespread with China being the laggard.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses lean toward the green side but four of the 15 are still in the red at midday.  The CAC (+0.60%), DAX (+0.73%), and FTSE (+0.97%) lead the continent higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward another green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.24% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up a bit to 4.473% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.45% to $77.91 per barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Oct. Core PPI, Oct. PPI, and Oct. Retail Sales (all at 8:30 a.m.), Sept. Business Inventories and Sept. Retail Inventories (10 a.m.), and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open include AAP, CTLT, FI, GFF, JD, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, XPEV, and ZIM.  Then, after the close, SQM, CPA, MMS, PANW, and TTEK report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Oct. Export Priced Index, Oct. Import Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Oct. Industrial Production, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts.  Friday is also options expiration day.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BABA, ARCO, BBWI, BERY, BV, DDL, DOLE, M, NICE, WMT, WSM, QFIN, AMAT, BZH, CPRT, GPS, GLOB, HI, MATW, POST, ROST, UGI, WWD, and ATO. Finally, on Friday we hear from ATKR, BJ, and SPB.

In government news, the US Postal Service reported a $6.5 billion net loss for the year ending September 30.  USPS revenue was down 0.4% as first-class mail volume fell to the lowest level since 1968.  Meanwhile, the US Dept. of Energy announced it plans to buy 1.2 million barrels of oil at an average price of $77.57/barrel to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  However, the bid government news is that the House passed Speaker Johnson’s phased “2 cliff” approach in a bipartisan 336-95 vote (with 209 of those votes coming from Democrats).  93 Republicans voted against the stop-gap bill.  (In October, the Speaker’s predecessor was ousted for working with the other side of the aisle.  However, the embarrassing three-week show of ineptitude following McCarthy’s ouster has given Johnson more leeway as the GOP is hesitant to go back through that Speaker selection process again.)  Johnson’s bill approach calls for no up-front cuts, extending current funding levels for military construction, veteran benefits, HUD, Agriculture, FDA, and Environmental programs until January 19. All other federal operations, including Defense, would have their current levels of funding expire on February 2.  President Biden announced that he would sign the bill if it is approved by the Senate.  That signal undoubtedly means Senate Democrats will likely pass the bill. Finally, it is worth noting that President Biden will meet with Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific Economic Conference in San Francisco today. There are no planned outcomes from the meeting as both sides have downplayed expectations. However, anything is possible when the leaders of the two largest economies meet.

In miscellaneous news, while the overall vote count is still in favor of approving the deal, another plant (this one a GM facility in TN) narrowly voted against ratifying the UAW-Big3 tentative agreement.  Overall, approval is leading with 82% support at STLA, 65% support at F, but only 52% at GM (with just over 30% of total GM votes now cast).  Elsewhere, a study published by Boston Consulting covering 554 public companies across 20 sectors found that firms that allow remote work have had four times as much revenue growth as their counterparts with more stringent “work from the office” policies.  Finally, Bloomberg reports that Beijing is planning to offer at least $137 billion of low-cost financing for village renovation and affordable housing programs.  The idea appears to be both to stabilize the real estate sector and stimulate China’s economy through housing-sector construction projects.

So far this morning, TGT, TJX, and XPEV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  TGT is particular is noteworthy with a massive earnings beat on only slightly increased sales.  (TGT comparable store sales declined for the second straight quarter.)  Meanwhile, AAP and CTLT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, JD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, ZIM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, all three major index ETFs gapped up to start the premarket session and have printed white-bodied candles that are now at or near the early session highs. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend and the bullish breakout of consolidation is still in play. All three have also significantly reduced (or erased) the distance to their summer highs. So, the Bulls are back in control of the longer-term trend on the strength of a hard rally the last two weeks. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now stretched far above their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is in the top of its overbought territory. So, we are definitely in need of at least a rest, if not a pullback soon. With that said, remember the market can remain overbought longer than you can last predicting a reversal too soon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

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Bulls Shrug it Off

A negative credit downgrade from Moody’s but the bulls shrug it off to continue the straight-up rally with a pending CPI number just around the corner.  Investors seem very sure that the Fed inflation fight is over.  We may find out this morning when the inflation data is revealed so be prepared for significant price volatility as the market reacts.  Home Depot reported a beat of expectations but also issued a caution on the forward strength of sales as the consumer weakens.  Keep in mind that on Wednesday bring a PPI and Retail Sales report so plan your risk accordingly.

Asian markets closed modestly higher overnight with only the tech-heavy Hong Kong exchange experiencing some light selling ahead of the Biden-XI talks.  European markets trade mostly bullish this morning with only the FTSE slightly lower as they wait on the pending inflation data.  However, U.S. futures trade cautiously bullish heading into the CPI report which will likely create a significant price reaction.  The question on everyone’s mind is whether the reaction is up or down.  Buckle up we will soon find out.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday include ALC, ARMK, CAE, CSIQ, ENR, HD, HUYA, IHS, OCSL, ON, PSFE, SBH, TME, VREX, VIPS, & WKME.

News & Technicals’

Home Depot, the largest home improvement retailer in the U.S., reported its third-quarter earnings and revenue on Tuesday, beating the analysts’ expectations. However, the company’s sales dropped by 3% compared to the same quarter last year, as the demand for home improvement products slowed down amid the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic and the rising inflation. Home Depot also issued a cautious outlook for the full year, saying that it expects its sales to grow by 4.9%, lower than the previous estimate of 6%. The company said that it faces uncertainty and volatility in the market, as well as supply chain challenges and labor shortages. Home Depot’s stock price fell by 4.3% on Tuesday, following the earnings release.

Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler and other car brands, is offering buyouts to about half of its U.S. white-collar workers, as part of its plan to reduce costs and improve efficiency in its North American operations. The company said on Monday that it will offer voluntary separation packages to 6,400 of its 12,700 nonunion U.S. employees, who can choose to leave the company with a lump sum payment and other benefits. This is the second time this year that Stellantis has offered buyouts to its salaried workers, after a similar offer in March. The buyout offer comes after Stellantis reached a tentative agreement with the UAW, the union that represents its hourly workers, in October. The agreement includes wage increases, bonuses, profit sharing, and investments in U.S. plants. Stellantis is the fourth-largest automaker in the world, formed by the merger of Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group in January 2021. The company faces several challenges, such as the global chip shortage, the competition from electric vehicles, and environmental regulations. The company hopes that the buyout offer will help it streamline its workforce and optimize its resources.

The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change in the prices of goods and services, is expected to show a slight increase of 0.1% in October 2023 from the previous month and a moderate increase of 3.3% from the same month last year, according to a Dow Jones poll of economists. The CPI is one of the main indicators of inflation, which is the general rise in prices over time. The CPI is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and will be released on Tuesday, November 14, 2023, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

Moody’s downgrades U.S. credit from stable to negative and the bulls shrug it off in a relentless straight-line rally heading into Tuesday’s inflation report. Bond yield showed little change yesterday with investors seemingly very confident that the Fed inflation fight has concluded despite the continued hawkish comments from FOMC members. Home Depot beat estimates but issued a caution about the softer sales ahead due to the weakening consumer. Target and Walmart will report later this week helping to clarify how the consumer is feeling amid record credit card debit.  Today investors will be looking for inspiration in the CPI figures.  Be prepared for volatility as the market reacts.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

CPI Today Includes Calculation Change

Markets were essentially dead on Monday.  SPY gapped down 0.33%, DIA gapped down 0.19%, and QQQ gapped down 0.40%.  All three major index ETFs then took an hour to get their footing and then they rallied strongly until noon recrossing the opening gap in the SPY and QQQ and even more in the DIA.  The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all ground sideways in a tight range.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three.  The SPY gave us a white-bodied, Spinning Top, Harami.  Meanwhile, QQQ printed a white Doji Harami in the in the QQQ.  Finally, the DIA gave us a white candle with an upper wick.  This all happened on very low volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-0.76%) leading the way lower while Energy (+0.82%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, the SPY lost 0.10%, DIA gained 0.16%, and QQQ lost 0.31%.  The VXX fell 1.10% to close at 19.71 and T2122 climbed again within its mid-range at 61.18. 10-year bond yields climbed slightly to 4.64% and Oil (WTI) jumped up 1.84% to close at $78.59 per barrel.  So, Monday saw a gap lower, a morning rally, and then a sideways slog the rest of the day. 

The major economic news reported Monday was limited to the October Federal Budget Balance, which came in with a larger deficit than expected at -$67.0 billion (compared to a forecast of $-65.0 billion but vastly better than the September reading of -$171.0 billion). 

Click for video

In stock news, MGA announced it had reached a deal with Canadian autoworker union Unifor following a strike last week at one of their plants.   Later, AMP and CMA said they had formed a strategic partnership with CMA financial advisors offering AMP products and services.  Elsewhere, JOBY had the inaugural flight of its electric air taxi on Sunday.  The company is aiming to offer electric air-taxi service to NY City by 2025.  Later, HYMTF (Hyundai) announced they would hike wages at their AL factory by 25% by 2028 after the UAW deal with the Big 3 automakers.  At the same time, ENLC said it has begun operations at its North TX carbon capture and sequestration project. The project is planned to sequester 210,000 metric tons of CO2 annually.  Later, XOM made the announcement that it would begin producing lithium from surface wells by 2027.  (The company plans to build its operations to be the leading lithium producer in the world by 2030, supplying material for 1 million EV batteries per year.)  At the same time, AMZN cut 180 jobs in a second round of layoffs in under a week as it restructured its games division (part of its online streaming operations).  Meanwhile, STLA offered about half (6,400) of its US salaried workers (non-union) voluntary buyouts in an effort to cut costs amid its transformation toward electric vehicles.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, BLK said Monday that it was actively talking to the SEC, hoping to get standardized regulatory treatment for cryptocurrency ETFs.  (BLK has advocated for regulations that align with the approach used for Futures ETFs.)  Elsewhere, BA announced it is expanding capacity at its Huntsville, AL plant for production of Patriot missiles following increased orders from and authorized by the US Dept. of Defense.  Later, less than two weeks after a St. Louis Federal Court found the National Assn. of Realtors guilty of overcharging home sellers $1.78 billion in broker fees, a lawsuit was filed in NY against the Real Estate Board of NY.  The suit charges the board, including the two dozen brokerages it represents, have colluded to artificially inflate brokerage fees.  In the afternoon, EU governments and lawmakers reached a deal on targets for domestic supply of critical minerals like nickel, cobalt, magnesium, titanium, and lithium as a means of cutting reliance on China.  Later, a GOOGL expert witness told the company’s antitrust trial that the company’s multi-billion-dollar payments to AAPL and wireless carriers were “normal competitive behavior and not abuse.”  (Interestingly, it also came out that GOOGL also pays AAPL 36% of all ad revenue generated from searches in Safari browsers.  Bloomberg reporters said GOOGL’s chief litigator visibly cringed when that fact was testified to in court.)  At the same time, BA stock rose Monday after a report claimed that China is considering ending its freeze on purchases of the company’s 737 MAX jet.  China refused to comment on the report.  Finally, after the close, a federal judge has allowed a major class-action suit against “hair relaxer” chemical makers like LRLCY (L’Oreal), REVRQ (Revlon), and others to proceed.  The litigation includes more than 8,000 suits, which allege the companies used knowingly cancer-causing chemicals and caused other injuries.

After the close, ACM and SLF reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, LU missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ACM raised its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with only four of the 12 exchanges in the red.  South Korea (+1.23%) and Australia (+0.83%) led the gainers while India (-0.42%) was by far the biggest loser.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only 5 of the 15 bourses in the red.  Russia (-1.65%) is by far the biggest loser while Athens (+1.84%) is by far the biggest gainer.  However, the CAC (+0.15%), DAX (+0.46%), and FTSE (-0.34%) lead the region as usual on volume. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.01% open, the SPY is implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.25% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 4.622% and Oil (WTI) is jus t on the red side of flat at $78.19 per barrel in early trade.

In a note related to CPI, the Government has changed the way it estimates health insurance costs.  This change is expected to slightly increase the CPI numbers this time and in the future.  (Or, if you prefer, the previous methodology was underestimating health insurance costs, thus artificially suppressing CPI.)

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes October Core CPI and October CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARMK, AZUL, CAE, CSIQ, ENR, HD, IHS, SBH, SE, TME, and VIPS.  Then, after the close, NU reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get Oct. Core PPI, Oct. PPI, Oct. Retail Sales, Sept. Business Inventories, Sept. Retail Inventories, and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, Oct. Export Priced Index, Oct. Import Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Oct. Industrial Production, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts.  Friday is also options expiration day.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AAP, CTLT, FI, GFF, JD, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, XPEV, ZIM, SQM, CPA, MMS, PANW, and TTEK report.  On Thursday, we hear from BABA, ARCO, BBWI, BERY, BV, DDL, DOLE, M, NICE, WMT, WSM, QFIN, AMAT, BZH, CPRT, GPS, GLOB, HI, MATW, POST, ROST, UGI, WWD, and ATO. Finally, on Friday we hear from ATKR, BJ, and SPB.

In miscellaneous news, the gang that attacked China’s biggest lender (causing trouble for a US bond auction) released a statement Monday saying that ICBC bank had paid a ransom after last week’s hack.  Reuters was unable to confirm that claim.  Elsewhere, the US Supreme Court took on the nature of the politicians that chose and approved them and announced its first-ever “code of ethics.” The code has no standards, no enforcement mechanism (beyond self-compliance by each justice), no penalties, and no increase in third-party reporting.  In short, it was intended purely as a political ploy to reduce public pressure and political interest in regulating their behavior.  However, it is big on platitudes and all nine justices voted in favor of the nothingburger.  Meanwhile, after the close, Reuters reported that JPM is telling its private clients to sell bonds and stocks, moving that money into commodities (oil in particular).  Finally, in an odd twist, Senate Majority Leader Schumer (Democrat) said he was encouraged by House Speaker Johnson’s two-cliff approach to a new CR.  Schumer’s rationale seems to be that “at least it doesn’t call for cuts yet.”  On the other side, the most extreme Republicans (such as Rep. Buck of TX) came out as hating the approach, telling reporters “We got nothing – nothing!”  He went on to say, “I certainly hope that this bill is not going to proceed as it’s currently structured.”

So far this morning, ARMK, ENR, HD, ONON, TME, and VIPS all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, IHS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CSIQ and SBH missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like all three major index ETFs are now looking to open just on the green side of flat. So far, all three are also giving us small, white-bodied, indecisive candles (more wick than body). That would seem to indicate Mr. Market is waiting on more information (probably the CPI). The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend and the bullish breakout of consolidation is still in play. However, keep in mind that all three also remain 3%-4% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. However, those downtrend lines will be tested soon in the large-cap indices and have already been broken in the QQQ. In terms of extension, QQQ is the only major index ETF stretched above its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is in the top half of its mid-range. So, there is some room to run in either direction.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

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🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

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🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Tech Giants Led

Investors chose to ignore the warnings from Jerome Powell reversing Thursday’s bearish engulfing as the tech giants led indexes higher breaking overhead resistance.  After the market closed Moody’s downgraded the U.S. creditworthiness with a possible government shutdown at midnight this Friday.  So the question for today is, can the market follow through and continue to ignore the massive debt problem we face? With CPI and PPI just around the corner, plan for volatility as we find out if the bulls have it right this time or if once again got it wrong as they have over the last 18 months.  In any case, be prepared for substantial price volatility as the week unfolds.

Asian markets began the week mixed but mostly higher waiting on Biden-Xi talks that could be a bit contentious. However, European markets start the week with modest bullishness across the board ahead of talks with China as well as pending inflation data.  U.S. futures recovered off of overnight lows after Moody’s credit downgrade but still point to a modestly lower open with CPI, PPI, and a possible government shutdown battle to curb the rapidly growing debt.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday include ACM, FTRE, GENI, HROW, HSIC, MNDY, SKIN, SLF, TSEM, & TSN.

News & Technicals’

The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown next week unless Congress can agree on a funding plan. However, the outlook for the U.S. fiscal strength has been downgraded by Moody’s, a credit rating agency, to negative from stable. This means that the U.S. may lose its top credit rating in the future if it does not address its rising deficits and debt. Moody’s said that the U.S. has unique credit strengths, such as its economic size, diversity, and resilience, but also faces downside risks, such as political polarization, social inequalities, and environmental challenges. Moody’s affirmed the U.S. long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at Aaa, the highest possible rating, but warned that the U.S. needs to improve its fiscal governance and sustainability. The Moody’s report was based on the data from the second quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, the newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, said he will release a Republican government funding plan on Saturday. He did not provide any details about the plan but said he hopes to avoid a shutdown and reach a bipartisan agreement with the Democrats. The current government funding expires on Friday, November 17, 2023. If Congress fails to pass a new funding bill by then, the government will have to shut down non-essential services and furlough federal workers. This would have a negative impact on the economy and public services. The last government shutdown occurred in December 2022, and lasted for 35 days, the longest in U.S. history.

The workers of Ford’s two plants in Louisville, Kentucky, have given a mixed verdict on the proposed contract between the company and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. The contract, which would last for four and a half years, was rejected by the majority of the production workers, who make up most of the workforce. The production workers voted 55% against the contract, according to the UAW Local 862 union. However, the skilled trades workers, who are a smaller group of workers with specialized skills, voted 69% in favor of the contract. The contract would offer wage increases, bonuses, profit sharing, and retirement benefits to the workers, as well as investments in the plants. The reasons for the rejection by the production workers are not clear, but some workers have expressed dissatisfaction with the contract terms, such as the lack of cost-of-living adjustments, the two-tier wage system, and the health care costs. The contract vote is still ongoing at other Ford plants across the country, and the final result will depend on the overall majority of the workers.

The U.S. bond market is stable on Monday, as investors weighed the economic outlook and awaited the inflation data that will be released this week. The inflation data, which will show the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) for October, will be closely watched by the investors, as they will provide clues about the future direction of the monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, has signaled that it will start tapering its bond purchases this month, and may raise interest rates next year if the inflation remains high and persistent. The bond yields, which reflect the market’s expectations of the interest rates, were little changed on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield, which is a benchmark for long-term borrowing costs, rose slightly to 4.63%, from 4.62% on Friday. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to short-term interest rate changes, fell slightly to 5.056%, from 5.064% on Friday. The bond yields have been volatile in the past few months, as investors reacted to the changing economic conditions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply chain disruptions, the fiscal stimulus, and the labor market recovery.

The stock market rebounded Friday with a surprising reversal as the tech giants led indexes higher. The market was spooked Thursday by Fed Chair Powell’s comments at the IMF, which suggested a more aggressive monetary policy, and by a weak bond auction, which pushed the yields higher. However, investors defiantly choose to ignore the Chairman’s warning believing they have it right this time despite their poor track record in predicting a pivot over the last 18 months. We may not have long to find out if the bulls are correct with a CPI report on Tuesday followed by the PPI on Wednesday.  We will also get a reading on the strength of the consumer with Retail Sales figures mid-week.  That said, it could be a hurry-up and wait Monday with volatility in the morning after Moody’s downgrade and possible government shutdown this Friday at midnight.  Buckle up it could be a wild week ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug