FOSL’s Weekly PBO Flag Pattern
FOSL’s Weekly Morning Star / PBO Flag pattern has held up well during the market chop last week and the poor performance of market Friday and didn’t seem to be affected by Fridays poor market performance. The Weekly RBB strategy looks strong with good risk reward. The PBO Flag pattern is a Road Trip Continuation pattern.
Special note: We bought FOSL a few days, now supporting 9%.
Live Members Morning Prep starting at 8:45 AM Est. With Steve Risner and Rick Saddler at 9:10 am this morning. members morning briefing
Recently closed
GE 11% • ANF 56% • CREE 51% • FLO 3% • VXX 6% • CAT 39% • TWTR 50% • FEYE 28% • OCN 39% • TWTR 54% • QQQ 28% • QQQ 179% • TWTR 180% • VXX 375% VIPS 118% • WTW 21.9% •
[button_2 color=”orange” align=”center” href=”https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/events/” new_window=”Y”]Event Calendar • Click Me • Stay Informed[/button_2]
SPY • Evening Star
On Friday the SPY painted the 3rd candle to create a bearish Evening Star (on stronger volume), price cut through the 200-SMA but closed above the 200-SMA before the closing bell. Weakness and follow through today could send the SPY to test the Feb. 9 lows ($252.92). On the other hand, the buyers could find the energy to keep us in this sideways chop yet another day. Anything below the ($266.00) line the sellers have a strong grip on the buyers, overall the market remains wound tight and sellers outnumber buyers. Be careful and don’t chase every ounce of hope.
The VXX short-term futures
The VXX chart is being painted by the traders that have the greatest fear and lean toward the bearish side. The bigger price pattern is bullish. A good simple rule is to ask yourself what is price doing in relationship to the T-Line and what is price action doing?
Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Focus Trading Education
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
*************************************************************************************
Tariff tensions.
With more tariff slings and arrows launched between the US and China overnight, the market once again makes a big overnight reversal. As the tensions escalate, traders will have a decision to make as we head into the weekend. Do you hold and accept the risk of possible big Monday gaps or do you take close positions to avoid the risk? A tough decision to be sure.
The Employment Situation report this morning is expected to show our economy is strong. However, the market is also walking a tightrope here due to the possible wage inflationary pressures. As in the Goldilocks nursery rhyme, we need the porridge to be just right, or additional market concerns could also contribute to market volatility. One thing seems certain; big daily price fluctuations are likely here to stay at least for the short-term.
On the Calendar
The Friday Economic Calendar has only one market-moving report at 8:30 AM Eastern. The Employment Situation report is expecting about 185,000 in jobs growth in March non-farm payrolls. The unemployment rate according to consensus declines to 4.0% pointing to the full employment and the possibility of future wage pressures. However, consensus only expects a 0.3% increase in hourly earnings with a yearly uptick to 2.7%. Manufacturing payroll is expected to increase by 20,000 with the average work week coming in unchanged at 34.5 hours. Consensus also sees the labor participation rate ticking higher by two tenths to 62.8% We have three Fed Speakers today with first at 10:30 AM and the second speaking at 1:30 PM and last talking at 4:00 PM.
A rather light day on the Earnings Calendar this Friday with only 17 companies expected to report results.
Action Plan
After two nice days of the market rally on decreasing fears of tariff uncertainty, the White House stepped up the rhetoric asking for another 100 billion in tariff increases. There was an instant knee-jerk reaction with the Dow Futures quickly sinking more than 400 points after the news release. Of course, China quickly responded with reciprocal threats. Throughout the evening the Futures markets rallied back significantly but at this time indicate the Dow could gap down about 200 points at the open.
Such political uncertainty will likely keep the markets nervous and price action very volatile for the foreseeable futures. As I mentioned yesterday traders will have to plan for this additional volatility and carefully weigh the risk because these big overnight reversals can be very punishing to your trading accounts. Maintaining an edge is all but impossible with such politically charged volatility.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/RQk8j_7HSLA”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
Employment Numbers and Tweets
Today’s employment numbers and tweets from any knuckleheads could keep this market volatile, stay sharp and trader your trade! Fridays we typically don’t’ post trades ideas to aid in slowing the rush down a little. Fridays are a great day to bank profits that you have not yet banked, clean your desktop and your computer’s desktop.
Special note: Thank you for attending our workshop last light, I was a pleasure to share my account statement and teach you how I doubled a trading account in 2 months. I look forward to us back together again in a few weeks.
Live Members Morning Prep starting at 8:45 AM Est. With Steve Risner and Rick Saddler at 9:10 am this morning. members morning briefing
Recently closed
VXX 6% • CAT 39% • TWTR 50% • FEYE 28% • OCN 39% • TWTR 54% • QQQ 28% • QQQ 179% • TWTR 180% • VXX 375% VIPS 118% • WTW 21.9% •
[button_2 color=”blue” align=”center” href=”https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/events/” new_window=”Y”]April Event Calendar[/button_2]
SPY • Yesterday’s Doji
The SPY gaped and left us with a Doji perfectly at the front door of our $266.00 line. It now up to Friday’s team to put the Doji to work. The next order of business for the buyers is to close price above $266.00 and use the $266.00 area as support. The move from the $266.00 line should get us to the 50-SMA. If the buyers can not do their job and they fail to build support over $266.00 then it is likely the sellers will force a test of $261.80, below $261.80 would put us back below the T-Line. (Not Good)
VXX Closed below the T-Line yesterday, falling from the Bearish Engulf the day before. Above $51.25 the fear and volatility come back, below the T-Line the market stays somewhat calm.
Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Focus Trading Education
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
*************************************************************************************
SHLD Painted A Bullish Swing Pattern
SHLD has painted and Bullish swing pattern over the past several days with a Bullish flag PBO (Continuation pattern). We will be using the Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy. The Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy uses the dotted duce and the 200-sma as profit zone areas.
Special note: We have been long SHLD for a few days and closed yesterday 18% in the green.
Live Members Morning Prep starting at 8:45 AM Est. With Steve Risner and Rick Saddler at 9:10 am this morning. members morning briefing
Recently closed
VXX 6% • CAT 39% • TWTR 50% • FEYE 28% • OCN 39% • TWTR 54% • QQQ 28% • QQQ 179% • TWTR 180% • VXX 375% VIPS 118% • WTW 21.9% •
[button_2 color=”red” align=”center” href=”https://ob124-5a86cf.pages.infusionsoft.net/” new_window=”Y”]Workshop Tonight – Click Here To Read More About It[/button_2]
SPY • Bullish Engulf
Yesterday’s bullish Engulf (Price Action) closed over the T-Line, we will take that as a win and will likely see another high today! But I can not stress the importance of quality follow-through over the next few days. A failure of follow through and a test of the recent lows could be disastrous. The goal for the buyers is to find support above $266.00 and challenge the 50-SMA. Of course, we want to see the buyers when that challenge even if it takes them a couple of tries.
VXX Closed with a Bearish Engulf below the T-Line, a lower low is likely.
Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Focus Trading Education
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
*************************************************************************************
Massive Short Squeeze
The quickly shifting sentiment on Trade War fears was reversed yesterday as White House officials spoke calmly of their intentions triggering a massive short squeeze yesterday. From opening low to the high of the day, the Dow traveled more than 775 points. There is still a lot of work to be done to confirm a market bottom, but yesterday bullish engulfing pattern at a major moving average is certainly a nice start.
The negotiations with China are far forming over so don’t’ be surprised if jitters and shock waves keep the market off balance and volatile in the day to come. With so many charts producing buy signals, yesterday traders will have to be choosy and carefully weigh the risk of volatility against their tolerance when planning new positions. Also, keep in mind after such a big move we could see some profit taking or consolidation ahead of the Friday’s job report.
On the Calendar
There is a full Economic Calendar this Thursday, but only two market-moving reports that both come out at 8:30 AM Eastern. The International Trade deficit is expected to widen slightly to $56.7 billion in February. This deficit is one of the trade metrics that is under negotiation with China that could quickly improve if a fair trade deal. Then we have the Weekly Jobless Claims which consensus expects to come in at 230K. Other than that we have several lessors reports a bunch of bond announcements and a Fed Speaker at 1:00 PM.
The Earnings Calendar is only showing 19 companies reporting earnings today. Notable before the bell is MON, and then after the bell PSMT reports.
Action Plan
A big win for the Bulls yesterday after gaping down about 500 points the Dow recovered sharply to close the day up 230 points. Such is the nature of politically generated volatility as panic, and then relief quickly reverses market sentiment. Big bullish engulfing candles now grace all 4 of the major index charts at or near the daily 200 moving average. Current downtrends have yet to reverse, and there is a lot of overhead resistance to deal with but yesterdays price action was a good start to a potential recovery.
Currently, the Dow Futures, point to a higher open but don be surprised if the market rests or pulls back as we wait for the Employment Situation report before the market open on Friday. There are a lot of very good looking charts in the watchlist and scans. If you trade to keep in mind, the threat of politically generated volatility still exists so plan your risk accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/LHRw0rwGzuE”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
Political Volatility
I have mentioned how challenging politically motivated volatility can be for traders. The cruel overnight reversal triggered by a single Tweet is evidence of how damaging it can be to a traders account. As technically, analysts, we try to maintain an edge through the study of price action. Unfortunately, that edge completely disappears during periods of political uncertainty. Very fast and experienced day traders can make hay in this kind of environment and investors simply ride it out. It’s the swing trader that’s particularly disadvantaged by the violently shifting sentiment. During times like this holding on to an edge is a bit like trying to rope the wind.
On the Calendar
The Wednesday Economic Calendar has several reports that the market could get a reaction from today. At 8:15 AM Eastern ADP Employment report is looking for a slow down in job gains to 185,000 vs. 234,000 reading in February. The Factory Orders at 10:00 AM is looking for a solid rise of 1.7% adding to the impressive strength of the February reading. Also at 10:00 AM the ISM Non-Mfg Index is to continue showing strength with an expected reading of 59.0 today according to consensus. Then at 10:30 AM we will get the EIA Petroleum status numbers which do not forecast forward but certainly have the power to move the market substantially. Filling out the rest of the calendar we have the PMI Services index which is not expected to move the market as well a 2-Fed Speakers to be aware of at 9:45 and 11:00 AM.
We have only 36 companies on today’s Earnings Calendar. Most notable is the report from CAR before the bell, and after the bell, we will get results from the home builder LEN.
Action Plan
Yesterday we had some sweet relief as the bulls started the day positive and continued to push higher steadily higher through the day closing the Dow up 389 points. Unfortunately, all that good work looks to be completely reversed this morning as the Trade War rhetoric heats up. As I write this, Dow Futures are pointing to a 500 point gap down as both the US and China issue threats of new tariffs.
As I mentioned earlier this week politically inspired volatility is a very challenging environment in which to trade. Violent reversals that shift the course of the market, with the efficiency of the instant news cycle. Swing traders are disadvantaged in such an environment which is clearly evident this morning. Keep in mind the market could change again with the speed of a Tweet so plan your risk accordingly.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
[button_2 color=”green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/iD1npb9E_7A”]Morning Market Prep Video[/button_2]
Don’t Panic, Don’t Impulse Chase
Don’t panic, don’t impulse chase today, need I say more? The smart trader has set protective stops on current trades and is having a cup of coffee thinking about going fishing when the sun comes up. The market is not friendly or sane right now, my god it’s getting lead around by TWEETS, how crazy is that.
We will post possible trades live only when the market takes it’s pills and calms down.
Live Members Morning Prep starting at 8:45 AM Est. With Steve Risner and Rick Saddler at 9:10 am this morning. members morning briefing
Recently closed
VXX 6% • CAT 39% • TWTR 50% • FEYE 28% • OCN 39% • TWTR 54% • QQQ 28% • QQQ 179% • TWTR 180% • VXX 375% VIPS 118% • WTW 21.9% •
[button_1 text=”Learn%20How%20I%20Doubled%20My%20Account” text_size=”32″ text_color=”#000000″ text_bold=”Y” text_letter_spacing=”0″ subtext_panel=”Y” subtext=”Tomorrow%20Night%20-%20Click%20Here” subtext_size=”20″ subtext_color=”#ff0000″ subtext_bold=”Y” subtext_italic=”Y” subtext_letter_spacing=”0″ text_shadow_panel=”N” styling_width=”40″ styling_height=”30″ styling_border_color=”#000000″ styling_border_size=”1″ styling_border_radius=”6″ styling_border_opacity=”100″ styling_gradient_start_color=”#1cb3e8″ styling_gradient_end_color=”#ffa035″ drop_shadow_panel=”N” inset_shadow_panel=”N” align=”center” href=”https://ob124-5a86cf.pages.infusionsoft.net/” new_window=”Y”/]
SPY • Yesterday’s Harami
WOW! it was a great feeling to see the buyers come back yesterday from the $256.84 low to close with a Bullish Harami. But wait the bullish Harami did not close over the T-Line, so there was no follow through. Maybe today we get follow through….LOL that’s funny…have you saw the futures this morning. My trading spidey sense tells me I should only manage what I already have and probably not take on any more trades. Ya, Think!
From the eyes of a swing trader…The only thing I see in the SPY chart is a big bearish “h” pattern, a bearish “m” pattern and a little bearish “h” pattern. If it sounds like a duck and quakes like a duck……must be a duck
The VXX short-term futures
The VXX chart even though it closed off the previous day’s highs it maintained it’s spot above the T-Line and added the 11th day to the bullish T-Line Run.
Rick’s Swing Trade Ideas Reserved for Subscribing Members
30-Day Trial • Monthly • Quarterly • Semi-Annual • Annual
Focus Trading Education
Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI
To learn more about our trading tools join us in the trading room or consider Private Coaching.
Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.
Rick Saddler is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone except for the trading desk of Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc.
*************************************************************************************
