Stocks gapped higher on the AI coming from NVDA’s blowout earnings report and forecast.  SPY gapped up 0.59%, DIA opened just 0.07% higher, and QQQ gapped up 1.07%.  However, this was a Bull trap as all three major index ETFs sold off sharply until 10 a.m.  From there, all three chopped sideways until 12:30 p.m. when the next leg of sharp selloff began.  That selloff lasted until 3 p.m. when DIA began a sideways grind for the last hour while SPY and DIA bounced modestly the last hour.  This action gave up large black-body candles with lower wicks in the case of SPY and QQQ (less so in the DIA).  DIA recrossed and fell significantly below its T-line (8ema). At the same time, SPY crossed just below its T-line.  However, QQQ retested and bounced up off its T-line.  Once again, this all happened on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.  (Although, it should be noted that DIA was closer to average than the other two.)

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-2.11%) far out in front leading the rest of the market lower.  At the same time, Technology (-0.55%), buoyed by NVDA’s huge +9.32% showing, held up better than all other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.73%, DIA lost a huge 1.50%, and QQQ lost 0.44%.  VXX gained 1.40% to close at still very low 11.59 and T2122 dropped out of the midrange and into its oversold territory at 14.40.  Elsewhere, 10-year bond yields climbed to 4.477% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.90% to close at $76.87 per barrel.  So, overall, Thursday was a Bull Trap Day where the Bears were in charge all day after a gap higher.  It might be worth noting that all 30 of the DIA were negative, 449 of the SPY’s 503 stocks were in the red, and 83 of the 101 stocks in the QQQ were down. With that said, DIA was clearly the weakest, giving up potential support levels and printing by far the largest black candle.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Building Permits, which came in down but exactly as expected at 1.440 million (compared to a 1.440 million forecast and the previous 1.467 million reading).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than predicted at 215k (versus a 220k forecast and a 223k prior week value).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were up but exactly as anticipated at 1,794k (compared to the 1,794k forecast and up from the previous week’s 1,786k).  Later, S&P Global Mfg. PMI was a bit stronger than expected at 50.9 (versus a 50.0 forecast and previous reading). At the same time, S&P Global Services PMI were reported as stronger than predicted at 54.8 (compared to a forecast of 51.2 and the April 51.3 value).  Together, these last two gave us an S&P Global Composite PMI that was better than anticipated at 54.4 (versus the 51.1 forecast and the 51.3 April reading).  Later, April New Home Sales were weaker than expected at 634k (compared to the 677k forecast and 665k March number).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed another decrease, now at $7.300 trillion (versus the prior week’s $7.304 trillion).

In Fed news, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told a Stanford University audience that the Us is not out of the woods on inflation yet.  Bostic said, “We’re not past the worry point in terms of inflation getting back to our target.”  However, he did suggest that inflation is still on a slow pace toward the FOMC goal, saying, “The couple of inflation numbers suggest it’s going back to 2%, but going slow.”  He continued, “Job growth has been robust … which tells me there’s still a lot of energy in the economy.  We’re not at risk today, I don’t think, of falling into a contractionary environment.”  Bostic concluded, “It might be that we have to be a little more patient and be more certain that inflation is on its way (to the Fed’s 2% goal).”

In stock news, on Thursday, WMT countered TGT’s announcement of price cuts on 5,000 items (from earlier this week) by saying that WMT has already cut prices on 7,000 products.  The “Bentonville behemoth” noted deflationary trends in general merchandise in doing so.  At the same time, Reuters reported that talks related to a potential GOOGL acquisition of HUBS are continuing.  (The potential for such a deal was reported in April, with the aim of allowing GOOGL to be better positioned against MSFT’s cloud-based applications offerings.)  Later, the Chairman of MS announced he will step down at the end of the year.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that CVS is seeking a private equity partner to fund the growth if its Oak Street Health (a primary care provider CVS bough in 2023).  After the close, PARA and CHTR announced a multi-year content distribution deal.  Also after the close, TSLA omitted its previous goal of delivering 20 million vehicles a year by the end of the decade.  The omission came in its latest impact report, published late Thursday.  (Analysts suggested this reflects on the company’s failure to deliver a more affordable $25k electric vehicle, but may also hint at the company’s shift toward a focus on robotaxis.)

In stock legal and governmental news, MDLZ was fined $365.72 million by EU antitrust regulators for impeding cross-border trade.  (MDLZ was found to have prevented retailers from freely sourcing products and forbidding its distributors from competing in areas beyond their assigned portion of the EU.)   At the same time, it was reported that MRNA, PFE, and BNTX are in talks with the multiple governments related to vaccines after more human cases of H5N1 Bird Flu have been found in the US and Australia.  Later, as predicted, the US Dept. of Justice filed suit (along with 30 states, including polar opposites CA and TX, and the District of Columbia) seeking to force a breakup of LYV from Ticketmaster, which LYV bought in 2010.  The suit alleges LYV monopolizes the ticket market, driving up prices and also hurting artists.  At the same time, a jury in Chicago ruled in favor of GSK and said that the plaintiffs had failed to prove the company’s Zantac drug was the cause of her cancer.  Later, NSC agreed to pay a $15 million civil penalty for future cleanup costs and $57.1 million in past cleanup costs related to the railroad’s 2023 train derailment and chemical spill in East Palestine, OH.

Elsewhere, the FAA said Thursday that BA faces a “long road” to address safety and quality issues.  The company must deliver its plan to address “systemic quality-control issues” on May 30.  Those problems caused the FAA to prohibit expansion of 737 MAX production and implemented additional on-site inspectors and audits of BA production after a myriad of problems.  At the same time, the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee (McCaul) warned that the MSFT deal with UAE-backed AI firm G42 could involved the transfer of sophisticated ships and tools abroad.  The TX GOP Rep. said the deal may pose a national security risk given Chinese interests in UAE. McCaul said he will demand a comprehensive briefing from the Dept. of Commerce, which must approve licenses for the deal.  Later, the FDA advisory committee recommended the approval of GH’s blood test for colon or rectal cancer.  After the close, the SEC approved applications from Nasdaq, CBOE and NYSE to list ETFs tied to the spot price of cryptocurrency Ether.  Later, JPM confirmed reported from earlier in the week that it will pay a $100 million fine to the CFTC related to trade reporting lapses.

After the close, DECK, INTU, ROST, and WDAY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, CVCO missed on both the top and bottom line.  It is worth noting that WDAY lowered its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Hong Kong (-1.38%), South Korea (-1.26%), Shenzhen (-1.23%), and Japan (-1.17%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday, but on much more modest moves so far.  The CAC (-0.17%), DAX (-0.37%), and FTSE (-0.41%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  The DIA implies a modest +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.479% and Oil (WTI) is off by half a percent to $76.55 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday, April Core Durable Goods and April Durable Goods (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller at 9:35 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to BAH.  There are no reported scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, BAH has reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In miscellaneous news, mortgage rates fell for the third consecutive week.  The US national average 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgage fell below 7% to 6.94% (down from last week’s 7.02%).  Meanwhile, NVDA added more than $200 billion in market cap Thursday on its huge post-earnings stock price gains.  At the same time, Elon Musk announced that he no longer supports US tariffs on Chinese EVs.  Musk’s about face is speculated to be related to China’s treatment of TSLA.  Elsewhere, two US Senate Committees (Democrat majority) launched investigations into ex-President Trumps “quid pro quo” offer to rollback a series of environmental protections…in return for $1 billion in campaign donations from the oil industry.  (Leaders of OXY, CTLR, and ET held a Trump fundraiser in Houston after the offer.)  Finally, Fidelity said Thursday that the number of 401(k) accounts with a balance of more than $1 million that they house jumped 15% in Q1, reaching a record level.  Better yet, they say that number has increased another 43% since March.

In late-breaking news, the CEO of BA told investors to be prepared for plane deliveries not to improve in Q2 versus the dismal Q1 numbers.  He also said the company has already burned through $4 billion in cash in Q1 and expects the number for Q2 to be “a little worse.”  In fact, the new CEO (West) says BA will burn cash throughout 2024 as it tries to recover from massive safety and quality problems.  Elsewhere, CNBC reports the Commerce Dept. has $6 billion left of the $52 billion allocated by the CHIPS Act (meant to spur growth of US semiconductor design and manufacture (to reduce the US current dependence on foreign chip makers).  CNBC reports the remaining money will be allocated in smaller award directed toward smaller companies.  600 have submitted grant requests with only nine awarded so far. Commerce Sec. Raimondo said that 85% of the remaining money will be awarded by year end.  (Contrast the US’s $52 billion program with a new program approved this week in South Korea and aiming at doing the same for that country.  South Korea’s program is $19 billion in size. For reference, South Korea’s GDP is under $1.7 trillion while the US GDP is nearly $29 trillion.)

As a reminder, remember that Monday is a holiday and markets will be closed.  Also keep in mind that this is Friday…payday…and time to prepare your account for the long weekend news cycle. Finally, also make note the US securities market will begin its 1-day trade settlement (called “T+1”) down from the current 3-day settlement next week.  This change begins Tuesday, May 28.  (Also note that some analysts are nervous over the stress on the system of clearinghouses and brokerages.)

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to claw back some ground after Thursday’s post-open bearish run. All three major index ETFs are printing white body, inside day type candles in the premarket with QQQ the strongest (no wick) and DIA the weakest (a Doji). Yesterday’s candles were definitely ugly. However, we need to bear in mind that SPY is only three-quarters of a percent from its all-time high close, QQQ is less than 0.20% below its all-time high close, but DIA is a bit more than 2.26% from its all-time high close. The point is that one or even a few bad candles hardly change the character of this market. The bulls remain in control beyond the very, very short term. In fact, the early session action has SPY joining QQQ back above their T-lines (8ema) with DIA still well below its own. So, the short-term trend remains bullish (except on the DIA). At the same time, the mid-term is also very bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish. In terms of extension, after Thursday, SPY and QQQ are not extended at all from the T-line. However, DIA is over-extended to the downside and needs a pause or bounce. The T2122 indicator returned to the upper half of its oversold area. So, the bottom line is that the market has more room to run for the Bulls than Bears but both camps could still move at least some if they find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, again all 10 are well into the green at this point this morning with that biggest dog NVDA (+1.06%) and AI competitor AMD (+0.91%) out front dragging the QQQ higher again today.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened just a little bit lower on Wednesday with SPY opening down 0.15%, DIA gapping down 0.23%, but QQQ opening 0.04% higher.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in a tight range until 1:30 p.m.  Then a stiff selloff took all three to their lows of the day at 2:45 p.m.  From there the SPY, DIA, and QQQ rallied modestly, in waves, into the close.  This action gave us black-bodied indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  The QQQ printed a long-legged Doji, the SPY printed a Bear Doji Harami, and the DIA printed a black Spinning Top.  The DIA also retested and closed pennies below its T-line (8ema).  Again, this all happened on very low volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Basic Materials (-1.71%) and Energy (-1.69%) well out front leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, Healthcare (+0.22%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.29%, DIA lost 0.53%, and QQQ lost just 0.02%.  VXX gained 2.14% to close at still very low 11.43 and T2122 dropped further into the lower half of its mid-range at 41.67.  In other markets, 10-year bond yield was up very slightly to 4.424% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.74% to close at $77.29 per barrel.  So, overall, Wednesday was another day of consolidation, or in the case of DIA, a mild pullback.  However, it is worth noting that all three of them are still less than one percent from their all-time high closes. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included April Existing Home Sales, which came in a bit lower than expected at 4.14 million (compared to a forecast of 4.21 million and March’s 4.19 million reading).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected increase of 1.825 million barrels (versus a forecast of a 2.400-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 2.508-million-barrel draw). 

In Fed news, the May 1 Fed Meeting Minutes indicated the FOMC had worries about the progress on inflation.  The report said, “Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.”  They clarified that, “The recent monthly data had showed significant increases in components of both goods and services price inflation.”  The minutes also showed that “various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.”  Interestingly, immigration was mentioned on multiple occasions as a good thing for the economy, saying it had helped sustain consumption and was helping ease the labor market.  In regards to the Fed Balance Sheet, the minutes said, “Almost all participants expressed support for the decision to begin to slow the pace of decline of the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings in June.”  It went on, “A few participants indicated that they could have supported a continuation of the current pace of balance sheet runoff at this time or a slightly higher redemption cap on Treasury securities than was decided upon.” 

After the close, the huge news was NVDA’s huge beats on both lines.  NVDA showed a 10.3% upside surprise on revenue but a MASSIVE 262.1% increase in earnings, up to $6.12/share.  At the same time, ENS and UVV also beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BBAR, PLUS, and SNOW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, SNPS and VFC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, BIIB announced it had agreed to acquire Human Immunology Biosciences for up to $1.8 billion.  At the same time, CSX railroad said it will resume normal coal export operations at the Port of Baltimore this week and is loading trains now, after crews cleared part of the “deep channel.”  (Baltimore is the US’s second largest coal export hub, accounting for 28% of US exports.)  It is worth noting that CSX and rival NSC feed CEIX’s coal terminal in the Baltimore Port.  Later, SBGSY (Schneider Electric) and BSY announced they have terminated discussions about a strategic transaction.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that DIS has struck a deal to sell its stake in India’s “Tata Play” satellite provider.  (Terms of the deal were not announced.)  Later, AAUKF (Anglo American) agreed to a 1-week extension for BHP to make another acceptable takeover bid after its board rejected BHP’s third offer of $49.18 billion.

After the close, DD shares soared as the company announced it will split into three independent, publicly traded companies.  The split is planned to be tax-free for shareholders.  The current CEO will be replaced in the DD business by the current CFO, but will remain as executive chairman.  Also after the close, WBA announced it has sold $400 million worth of shares of COR, lowering its stake to 12% (down from 13%).  WBA said the funds will primarily be used to pay down debt.  At the same time, WBD announced its TNT network has signed a 5-year deal with DIS’s ESPN unit to broadcast college football games beginning in the fall of this year.

In stock legal and governmental (and potentially political) news , two top Democrats (Senate Budget Committee Chair Whitehouse and House Ranking Democrat Raskin of the House Oversight Committee) jointly sent a letter to the Dept. of Justice.  The letter seeks a sweeping investigation and action like was taken against big tobacco in the past…this time against big oil.  The letter was sent on behalf of a Joint Staff Report released in April that documented decades (50-60 years) of Big Oil deceiving the public and Congress, as well as suppressing actual evidence of the dangers of climate change and the impact of fossil fuels on that problem.  (It alleges that like big tobacco lied about the cancer risks of its product, Big Oil has known about, lied to cover up, and had a program of disinformation about the dangers of fossil fuel on the climate.)  The letter was accompanied by a raft of evidence such as internal reports, communication, etc. from oil companies and also whistleblower testimony that the Joint Staff report collected and summarized.  Note: you can’t ignore the political background here given that within the last week Trump offered big oil execs specific government policy and law changes…if they gave him $1 billion in campaign donations.  Those oil execs have subsequently scheduled a major Trump fundraiser event in Houston.  So, Democrats may have political motives, although it’s also true that the report was done before Trump’s offer to the execs at a Mara Lago dinner.  On the other hand, the American Petroleum Institute response to the letter could easily be confused for Trump campaign rhetoric, claiming this was just a dishonest way to deflect attention away from inflation and America’s need for more oil and gas.  Of course, both could be true. (The Dems could be politically motivated AND Big Oil could have known of and lied about the harmful effects of their products.) Regardless, in practical terms, a criminal or civil (like was brought against the tobacco companies) case on this matter would take years at a minimum to come about.  So, it is a quite long-term risk for oil companies, not short-term. However, it was news Wednesday and is worth noting.

Elsewhere, the SEC announced that ICE has agreed to pay a $10 million penalty for failure to immediately alert the SEC about a cyber intrusion event dating back to early 2021.  At the same time, UK regulators fined C $78.5 million for “controls failures” over a “fat finger” trade mistake that caused several “mini flash crashes” of European stocks between 2018 and 2022. (The last of these was a mistaken $444 billion order that was meant to be a $58 million order in May 2022.)   Later, Russian President Putin approved the liquidation of AXP’s Russian business.  At the same time, JNJ was sued in what the plaintiff’s hope will become a class action suit.  The suit alleges that JNJ engaged in fraudulent bankruptcy claims to avoid paying and pressure cancer victims of its talc business into settling.  (So, this case is not over the cancer, it is over the JNJ blatant attempt to avoid liability by transferring all liability to a subsidiary and then filing for bankruptcy of that subsidiary.  This move is called the “Texas Two-Step.”)  Later, Reuters reported the JPM is poised to announced a $100 million settlement payment to the CFTC over trade reporting lapses.  At the same time, a judge ordered BMY and SNY to pay more than $916 million to the state of HI for failing to warn non-white patients of health risks of their Plavix blood thinner.  (This was an increase from the original trial’s $834 million jury award, which was thrown out over a legal error.)  After the close, Reuters reported that C is being sued by a former Managing Director who claims she was fired for refusing to give false information to regulators in 2023.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Justice announced it will seek the breakup of LYV over antitrust violations from its acquisition of Ticketmaster.

Overnight, Asian markets were truly mixed with Hong Kong (-1.70%) and Shenzhen (-1.56%) leading half the region’s exchanges lower.  Meanwhile, India (+1.64%) and Japan (+1.26%) led the other half higher.  In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with 12 of 15 bourses above flat. Russia (-0.67%) is the only appreciable loser at this point in the session.  The CAC (+0.28%), DAX (+0.23%), and FTSE (-0.01%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a significant gap higher on the NVDA blowout earnings.  DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.59% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.99% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.418% and Oil (WTI) is up seven-tenths of a percent to $78.11 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 a.m.), S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, and S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), April New Home Sales (10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  Fed member Bostic also speaks again at 3 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ATAT, BILI, BJ, BEKE, MDT, NTES, PSNY, RL, TD, and TITN.  Then, after the close, CVCO, DECK, INTU, ROST, and WDAY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, April Core Durable Goods, April Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported and Fed member Waller speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, BAH reports.

So far this morning, YI, BILI, BJ, BEKE, MDT, and TD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATAT missed significantly on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NTES beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, TITN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau announced on Wednesday that “buy now, pay later” lenders (such as AFRM, AFTPY, and Klarna) must apply credit card rules.  This will force the companies to investigate customer disputes, refund on returned products, and provide periodic billing statements (among other rules).  Most of those companies already voluntarily comply with many (but not all) of the rules set out in the “Truth in Lending” Act.  Elsewhere, a second farm worker (this time in MI) has been determined to have been infected with the Bird Flu (H5N1) in late March.  As with the earlier-reported TX case, the worker suffered eye and flu-like symptoms and has recovered.

As a reminder, remember that Monday is a holiday and markets will be closed.  Finally, also make note the US securities market will begin its 1-day trade settlement (called “T+1”) down from the current 3-day settlement next week.  This change begins Tuesday, May 28.  (Also note that some analysts are nervous over the stress on the system of clearinghouses and brokerages.)

With that background, the Bulls have been flying since NVDA’s blowout report and forecast last night. Both the SPY and especially the QQQ gapped up significantly in the premarket and have printed a larger white-body candle since that point. The less tech-driven DIA lags far behind, but is being pulled higher in the early session as well. All three remain above their T-line (8ema) although the DIA is just so, recrossing above in premarket trading. The moves take QQQ and SPY to new all-time highs again. So, the short-term trend remains very bullish (except only slightly so in DIA). Meanwhile, the mid-term is also very bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish as the major index ETFs have returned to “fresh air” with no overhead resistance. In terms of extension, QQQ is now clearly extended far above its T-line and SPY is starting to push that level. The T2122 indicator does not show premarket activity so it remains in the lower half of its mid-range. The bottom line is that the market will need rest soon but it is very unlikely to come today as the Bulls celebrate the NVDA news. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are well into the green at this point this morning with that biggest dog NVDA (+7.09%) and AI competitor AMD (+2.94%) way out front dragging the QQQ higher today.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, markets started off flat and mixed. SPY opened down 0.13%, DIA started up 0.03%, while QQQ gapped down 0.44%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs drifted higher, slowly until 11:25 a.m.  From there, all three meandered sideways in a tight range until 1:25 p.m. when all three started a very slight uptrend that lasted the rest of the day.  This gave us white body candles in all three major index ETFs.  The QQQ was a Marubozu (Shaved Head) while SPY nearly did the same but ended up wit small wicks at both ends.  However, DIA ended up a white-bodied Spinning Top Bull Harami candle.  Both SPY and QQQ gave us new all-time high closes, but only QQQ printed an actual new all-time high.  Of course, that means all three major index ETFs also remain well above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Communications Services (-0.52%) leading the majority lower.  At the same time, Utilities (+0.75%) was out in front leading the green sectors higher.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.25%, DIA gained 0.17%, and QQQ gained 0.20%.  VXX fell 1.67% to close at very low 11.19 and T2122 fell back further into its mid-range at 68.42.  In other markets, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.414% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.93% to close at $79.06 per barrel.  So, overall, Tuesday was another day of consolidation.  While SPY and QQQ did print new all-time high closes, most of the day was spent inside the prior candle body.  All of the gains were also a quarter percent or less.  This consolidation can also be seen in the pullback of T2122.  The bottom line is that despite the green on the board, markets were basically resting.  Once again, this all happened on well below-average volume across all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, which showed an unexpected increase of 2.480 million barrels.  This should be compared to a forecast calling for a 3.100-million-barrel drawdown, which was also the prior week’s reading.)

In Fed news, on Fed Governor Waller indicated he didn’t see a rate hike in the cards and believes inflation has begun slowing again.  However, he also said the economy is far from ready to support a rate cut.  Waller said, “Central bankers should never say never, but the data suggests that inflation isn’t accelerating, and I believe that further increases in the policy rate are probably unnecessary.”  He continued, “The economy now seems to be evolving closer to what the Committee expected. Nevertheless, in the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing.” At the same time, Atlanta Fed President Bostic made a similar point, saying it’s better to wait than bounce around with rate hikes and cuts.  Bostic said, “It is in our interest to not start bouncing around … For me, I’d rather wait longer to make sure that doesn’t happen.”  He continued, “We need to make sure that when we start on that path (rate cuts), it’s unambiguous that inflation is going to get to 2% … and it may mean that it has to happen later.”  Later, Fed Vice Chair Barr reiterated Bostic’s point, saying “For me at least, that means we need to sit tight where we are for longer than we had previously thought … we need to see more evidence of continued progress on inflation for us to be in a position where we could think about adjusting the policy rate.”   After the close, Cleveland Fed President Mester said she is expecting to see “above trend” economic growth in 2024.  That being the case, she said, “Keeping rates restrictive is not a big risk, especially given the strength of the jobs market.”  She also said that the current Fed rate “policy is well positioned, we’ll need to monitor data.”

After the close, URBN reported a beat on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, MOD, TOL, VSAT, and XP all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SKY missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that both TSM and ASML have tools built into the chip-making technology they have sold China over the years that would allow the companies to remotely disable that equipment if China ever invaded Taiwan.  At the same time, despite Reuters reports, SPT announced it has no plans to sell or take the company private.  (SPT was down almost 9% on the news, but rebounded to close the day down 2.39%.)  Later, HOOD announced it is lowering the interest rate it charges on margin loans.  The new rates will be from 5.70% to 6.75% (depending on the amount borrowed) which is down sharply from the previous 8% (for its premium subscribers) to 12% HOOD had been charging.  At the same time, AMZN announced it had NOT halted any orders of NVDA’s AI chips.  However, it has decided to convert some of the unfilled orders to NVDA’s newer units announced in March. This statement was released in response to a Financial Times report claiming that AMZN had halted orders for NVDA gpus.  Later, NSANY announced that is has paused development of two EV sedans, while expanding its EV lineup to five vehicles by adding a crossover SUV.  At the same time, DIS announced it will lay off 175 people from its Pixar Studios subsidiary (14% of that unit’s workforce) as it scales back development of original streaming series.

Elsewhere, PEP announced it will expand its CA fleet of electric vehicles by deploying 50 new with TSLA semi-trucks.  In addition, PEP will also deploy 75 F E-Transit electric vans at its CA plants over the next few months.  At the same time, CMCSA announced it will price a bundle including its Peacock service, NFLX, and AAPL’s TV+ services for $15 per month.  Later, GE announced it will hire 900 new engineers for its Aerospace unit to support current and new aircraft engine programs.  At the same time, GOOGL announced it will start testing the addition of ads to its AI answers.  This comes just days after GOOGL announced the AI Overview service.  Later, MSFT touted new tools aimed at helping programmers build AI-focused systems at its developer conference.  At the same time, SNY announced it has partnered with OpenAI to boost development of drugs using AI technologies.

In stock legal and governmental news, Tuesday the SEC began an “informal inquiry” into GL after recent allegations by short sellers.  (GL fell 3.12% on the day on that news.)  Later, TM asked TX for tax relief prior to deciding whether to invest $531.7 million in expansion of its San Antonio plant.  At the same time, CA’s top state court announced Tuesday that it will hear a case brought by a labor union challenging a CA ballot measure allowing all “App-based services” to treat their drivers as contractors.  Later, HES said on Tuesday that it is facing three shareholder lawsuits alleging it made inadequate disclosures related to its proposed sale to CVX. At the same time, a federal appeals court unanimously ruled AAL must face a lawsuit brought by its pilots over the airline’s failure to pay them for short-term military leave.  Later, AAPL filed a motion asking a US judge to dismiss the antitrust lawsuit filed by the US Dept. of Justice and 15 states. 

Elsewhere, the US Labor Dept. announced that CAT agreed to pay $800k to resolve allegations of hiring discrimination against black applicants at an IL plant.  In addition, CAT will offer jobs to 34 applicants previously not hired due to the discriminatory system the company had in place.  At the same time, a whistleblower (former Vice President) has sued BLK over his firing after he objected to a colleagues self-dealing.  The suit also alleges the whistleblower was forced to shut down a system he had developed for monitoring discussions with clients about illegal investments in China.  At the same time, BASFY (BASF Chemicals) announced it has agreed to pay $316.5 million in a settlement with some US public water systems over PFAS (forever chemicals) contained in the company’s firefighting foam that polluted water supplies.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Japan (-0.85%) was by far the biggest loser (of the seven red exchanges) while Taiwan (+1.48%) was by far the biggest gainer of the five green exchanges.  In Europe, the picture is even more red at midday with only two green bourses (out of 15).  The CAC (-0.62%), DAX (-0.29%), and FTSE (-0.38%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and modest start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, but the QQQ implies a +0.05% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.457% and Oil (WTI) is off three-fourths of a percent to $78.06 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes April Existing Home Sales (10 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to ADI, DY, GOGL, HOV, WOOF, PDD, TGT, VIPS, and WSM.  Then, after the close, BBAR, SQM, ENS, PLUS, SUPV, NVDA, SNOW, SNPS, TBBB, and VFC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, April New Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet.  Fed member Bostic also speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, April Core Durable Goods, April Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported and Fed member Waller speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ATAT, BILI, BJ, BEKE, MDT, NTES, PSNY, RL, TD, TITN, CVCO, DECK, INTU, ROST, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday, BAH reports.

So far this morning, ADI, DY, WOOF, PDD, and TJX reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, GOGL and VIPS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TGT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that ADI, DY, and WOOF raised forward guidance.  However, VIPS cut its guidance.

In miscellaneous news, the Dept. of Energy announced it will sell 1 million barrels of gasoline (not oil) from strategic reserves in the Northeast.  The sale will happen between Memorial Day and July 4.  Energy Sec. Granholm said the move was times to maximize the impact on gasoline prices.  However, the underlying reason or excuse is the closing of a Portland ME storage facility.  Elsewhere, the Fed released a report Tuesday summarizing its October 2023 annual survey results.  The survey found that inflation was pinching Americans in 2023.  72% of respondents said they were doing “okay or good” financially in October 2023.  This was down from 78% in October 2021.  Meanwhile, Germany reversed course and said that it now agrees with the US plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund an additional $50 billion aid package for Ukraine.  (A considerable chunk of that money will likely go to US defense manufacturers such as LMT, RTX, LHX, GD, NOC, and HII.

As a reminder, remember that Monday is a holiday and markets will be closed.  Finally, also make note the US securities market will begin its 1-day trade settlement (called “T+1”) down from the current 3-day settlement next week.  This change begins Tuesday, May 28.  (Also note that some analysts are nervous over the stress on the system of clearinghouses and brokerages.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are giving us a mixed but mostly indecisive start to the day. The DIA is the most decisive (and most bearish) of the three major index ETFs in premarket. However, it remains above its T-line (8ema). Meanwhile, QQQ is giving us a Harami Doji candle at the top of yesterday’s candle body while SPY prints a small bearish Harami in the early session. Again, both of the latter two are also well above their T-line. All three also remain at new or very near the all-time highs. So, the short-term trend remains very bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is also bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned to “fresh air” with no overhead resistance. In terms of extension, only QQQ is clos eto what can be called over-extended above the T-line. However, more rest is probably needed in all three. The T2122 indicator pulled further into its mid-range. So, both sides have at least a little room to run if they can find the momentum. With that said, very low volumes recently tend to indicate that traders are waiting on the NVDA report before pressing any bets. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red at this point this morning with that biggest dog NVDA (-0.04%) just on the red side of flat and not really giving a clue. TSLA (-1.98%), the second biggest dog, is leading the losses this morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened mixed and flat on Monday.  SPY and QQQ both opened 0.02% higher while DIA opened down 0.08%.  At that point, SPY and QQQ followed through rallying for 30 minutes.  From there QQQ traded sideways the rest of the day.  SPY traded the same way until 11:45 a.m., sold off slowly until 2 p.m. and then traded sideways just above the open the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA did not begin its rally until 10 a.m. reaching the highs of the day about 11:40 a.m. and the it too sold off until 2 p.m. more than recrossing the open gap and then trading sideways at the lows from 2 p.m. into the close.  This action gave us a large, white-bodied candle in the QQQ that gave us both a new all-time high and a new all-time high close.  At the same time, SPY printed a white-body Inverted Hammer candle that could easily be seen as a Tweezer Double Top along with Thursday’s candle.  However, DIA gave us a black-bodied, high wick candle that did not quite make it to the all-time high (Thursday) and closed below Friday’s low.  All three major index ETFs also remain well above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+0.89%) leading the green half higher.  At the same time, Financial Services (-0.70%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.69%) were way out front leading the red sectors lower. Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA lost 0.46%, and QQQ gained 0.70%.  VXX gained very slightly to close at 11.38 and T2122 dropped a bit, falling just outside of its overbought territory to close at 79.01.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.445% and Oil (WTI) fell half of a percent to close at $79.67 per barrel. So, Monday was a day of divergence with the Dow 30 moving lower, QQQ driving higher, and SPY in the middle just on the green side of flat.  This all happened on well below-average volume across all three major index ETFs.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

In Fed news, on Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Bloomberg that interest rates are likely to stay above the levels of the past decade.  Bostic said he expects inflation to fall throughout the rest of 2024 and 2025.  However, the labor market (while weaker than it was a year ago) “is not soft” and will force the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.  Later, Vice Chair Barr said, “Inflation readings in the first quarter of this year were disappointing.  These results did not provide me with the increased confidence that I was hoping to find to support easing monetary policy.”  He continued, “We will need to allow our restrictive policy some further time to continue its work.”  At the same time, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson told a NY audience that it is too early to tell if the slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long lasting.  He went on to say the Fed viewed determining whether it will be long lasting or if inflation will resume its decline as a necessary precondition for the Fed to start cutting rates.  Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Mester told Bloomberg that she also believes inflation will continue to fall the rest of this year, although more slowly than she had been expecting.  In an article published Monday afternoon, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that she sees no evidence of the need for rate hikes.  However, Daly was also quoted as saying that at the same time she is “not confident” is falling to 2%.  So, she also sees no need to cut rates yet.

On another topic, Vice Chair Barr said the Fed was reconsidering how much liquidity banks should be made to keep on hand.  He was quick to point out that these “adjustments” were targeted at larger banks and that by increasing he amount they must hold at the Fed Discount Window it would increase the capital available for the Fed to act as “the buyer of last resort” for smaller banks that may fail.  (No timetable or specifics on the “adjustments” was mentioned.) 

After the close, KEYS, PANW, TCOM, and ZM all reported beats on both the revenue and the earnings line.  Meanwhile, NDSN and JHX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is also worth noting that KEYS and NDSN lowered forward guidance while ZM raised its guidance.

In stock news, on Monday, GOOGL announced it has invested $1.1 billion into the expansion of its Finnish data center, aimed at driving growth of its AI business unit in Europe.  At the same time, AAPL slashed its iPhone prices in China (offering up to $318 in discounts on some models) amidst fierce competition from Huawei.  Later, MSFT introduced a new category of personal computer with AI features.  It calls this new line of PCs “CoPilot+” and the initial launch came from OEM computer makers Acer and Asustek.  At the same time, Reuters reported that Soroban Capital Partner has taken a $500 million position in JCI.  This news came after Sunday’s revelation that Elliott Investment Mgmt. had taken more than a $1 billion position in JCI.  (The motives and timing behind the moves are not known.)  Later, SSB announced it will buy smaller rival bank IBTX for roughly $2 billion, creating a combined bank with $65 billion in total assets.  At the same time, TGT announced it has cut prices on 5,000 items in an attempt to lure back inflation-drained shoppers.  The reductions will take place over the course of the summer.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that HIMS is taking on the Big Pharma giants by offering a generic version of the same active ingredient in the how weight loss drugs from LLY and NVO.  This $199/month product undercuts the pharma giants by as much as 85%.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday the NHTSA announced it opened an investigation into 51,500 electric vehicles from VLKAF (Volkswagen) over concerns of the door opening while the cars were driving.  At the same time, NHTSA also closed its probe into more than 100k TSLA Model X after the company issued a recall to fix a front seat belt problem (failure due to faulty bolt installation).   Later, the US Senate Finance Committee issued a report alleging that BMWYY (BMW) imported at least 8,000 Mini Cooper cars which contained parts from a banned Chinese supplier.  BMWYY said it had halted import and will conduct service action to remove and replace the electronic components in question.  At the same time, an independent lab from CT sued GSK, alleging the drugmaker had defrauded the US government and taxpayers by concealing the cancer risks of Zantac for nearly four decades.  (The lab found during testing in 2019 the Zantac forms a cancer-causing compound and is unfit for human consumption.  The lawsuit alleges GSK found the same thing in 1983 and has suppressed that finding from the FDA, Medicare, Medicaid, and other agencies. 

Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced Monday it is investigate a VFS electric vehicle crash in late April which killed a family of four.  Meanwhile, DJT disclosed that it had been cooperating with a FINRA investigation related to the company’s “blank check merger.”  After the close, a trade group representing nearly all automakers filed its support of two key parts of the recent EPA emissions rules.  The group said automakers support the EPA plan to include electric vehicles in fleetwide average emissions calculations and also in excluding upstream emissions, such as emissions from manufacturing plants, from those calculations.  (The new rules have been challenged by a lawsuit from 25 GOP-led states while 22 states and five major cities support the new rules.  The rules call for a 49% cut in fleetwide average emissions between 2026 and 2032.  This was watered down from the originally proposed 56% cut over that period after carmaker pushback.)  Also after the close, the same conservative legal activist group behind myriad DEI lawsuits, filed another suit, this time suing LUV over a two-decade old program that awarded free round-trip flights to certain Hispanic college students.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only India (+0.12%) was able to hang onto green territory.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-2.12%) was BY FAR (by 1.5%) the biggest loser as Chinese Real Estate support measures disappointed.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with only one of 15 bourses in the green while the CAC (-0.99%), DAX (-0.40%), and FTSE (-0.37%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.428% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.57% to $78.55 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  However, we also get another raft of speakers including Treasury Sec. Yellen (4 a.m.), Fed Governor Kroszner (4:20 a.m.), Fed member Waller (9 a.m.), Williams (9:05 a.m.), Bostic (9:10 a.m.), Vice Chair Barr (11:45 a.m.), Bostic again (7 p.m.), and Mester (7 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to AS, AZO, EXP, LOW, M, OCFT, XPEV, and ZIM.  Then, after the close, MOD, SKY, TOL, URBN, VSAT, and XP report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, April Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  On Thursday, we get Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, April New Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet.  Fed member Bostic also speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, April Core Durable Goods, April Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported and Fed member Waller speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ADI, DY, GOGL, HOV, WOOF, PDD, TGT, VIPS, WSM, BBAR, SQM, ENS, PLUS, SUPV, NVDA, SNOW, SNPS, TBBB, and VFC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ATAT, BILI, BJ, BEKE, MDT, NTES, PSNY, RL, TD, TITN, CVCO, DECK, INTU, ROST, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday, BAH reports.

So far this morning, AS, LOW, and M have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AZO and XPEV missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ZIM beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, EXP missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that XPEV lowered guidance while ZIM raised its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, the embattled Chair of the FDIC, Gruenberg, said he will step down as soon as a successor is confirmed.  Gruenberg and the FDIC have been under a months-long scandal over allowing an environment of sexual misconduct and other misogyny at the agency.  (Gruenberg has been on the FDIC board since 2005 and is in his second term as board Chair.)  Elsewhere, BA shareholders voted to keep departing CEO Calhoun on its board, even after stepping down.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that JPM is putting every new employee through AI training.  This is being done to better prepare for what CEO Dimon says will be a revolution similar to the printing press of steam engine.  On a separate note, Dimon told the JPM annual meeting that his retirement is “less than five years away.”  (This is of note because Dimon has given the same “retirement is always five years away” answer for several years before this change.) 

Finally, as a reminder, make note the US securities market will soon begin its new 1-day settlement of trades, called “T+1”, which is down from the current 3-day settlement.  This change begins Tuesday, May 28.  (Also note that some analysts are nervous over the stress on the systems of clearinghouses and brokerages. They fear the “all or nothing” rollout is a high-risk event. However, officials at the exchanges, clearing houses, and brokers say they expect the transition to be smooth.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are flat and indecisive so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened flat and have printed small, indecisive (more with than body) candles so far in the early session. All three remain at new or very near the all-time highs from last week and are obviously well above their T-lines (8emas). So, the short-term trend remains very bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is also bullish and the longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned to “fresh air” with no overhead resistance. In terms of extension, yesterday’s candle allowed the T-line to “catch up” some in the large-cap index ETFs (especially DIA on its black candle). So, only the QQQ could be considered stretched too far above its T-line. However, more rest is probably needed in all three. The T2122 indicator pulled to the very top end of its mid-range, just outside the overbought area. So, while the market has room to run (if either side can find momentum), more pause or pullback are probably needed for a healthy rally to continue or for a trend break to happen. With that said, we have to remember that markets can, and sometimes do, remain overextended longer than we can stay solvent betting on a turn. In short, don’t predict, follow. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green at this point this morning with NVDA (+0.65%), the biggest dog of all, leading the gains while TSLA (-0.62%) is the biggest drag on the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets opened flat.  SPY opened up 0.02%, DIA opened down 0.01%, and QQQ opened up 0.04%.  From that point, the SPY and DIA meandered sideways until about 1:50 p.m.  At that point, both sold off for half an hour before rallying the rest of the day, closing on their highest 5-minute candle of the day. Meanwhile, after the open, QQQ ground sideways until noon.  Then the high-tech index ETF sold off, reaching the lows of the day at 2:25 p.m.  From that point, QQQ also rallied into the close, but from a much lower starting point and not quite reaching the opening level again.  This gave us a white-bodied Hammer Harami in the SPY, a white-bodied Bullish Engulfing candle in the DIA, and a black-bodied long-legged Doji type candle in the QQQ.  This led DIA to close and another all-time high close.  All three major index ETFs also remain well above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+1.32%) well out front leading the majority of sectors higher.  Meanwhile, the Consumer Defensive (-0.23%) and Healthcare (-0.22%) sectors led the laggards lower. At the same time, SPY gained 0.14%, DIA gained 0.18%, and QQQ lost just 0.05%.  VXX fell 1.30% to close at 11.36 and T2122 dropped but again remains in its overbought territory to close at 84.86.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.42% and Oil (WTI) gained just under one percent to close at $79.97 per barrel.  So, Friday did not see any significant moves but the larger-cap index ETFs (especially the DIA) continued its march North while QQQ did really just pause indecisively.  This all happened on below-average volume across all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday was limited to the April US Leading Economic Indicators Index, which fell more than expected at -0.6% (compared to a forecast and March reading of -0.3%).

In Fed news, on Friday, Fed Chair Powell tested positive for COVID-19 Thursday and said he will be working from home and isolating for the next week or so. (He delivered his Sunday Georgetown Law School commencement address via prerecorded video.)

In stock news, on Friday, MSFT asked hundreds of employees in China (working on both machine learning and cloud computing) to relocate outside China amid increases in China-US trade tensions.  Later, BA delayed the launch of its first-crewed Starliner rocket.  This is the third delay of the launch due to a helium leak and will now take place no sooner than May 25.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NLRB announced that the AL plant of MBGAF (Mercedes Benz) voted against unionizing by 56%-44%.  At the same time, C was sued for racial discrimination over its policy of waiving its ATM fees for the customers of minority-owned banks at C ATMs in the state of FL.  (This suit was filed by the same right-wing group which has legally challenged DEI programs at companies across the country.)

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Thailand (-0.29%) was in the red.  Meanwhile, Japan (+0.73%), Malaysia (+0.67%), and South Korea (+0.64%) led the region higher on broad, but modest gains. In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only three of the 15 exchanges in the red.  The CAC (+0.54%), DAX (+0.45%), and FTSE (+0.27%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.   In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a very modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.416% and Oil (WTI) is off a third of a percent to $79.77 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to a number of fed speakers.  First, Fed Chair Powell speaks Sunday afternoon.  Then Monday, Fed members Bostic (8:45 a.m.), Vice Chair Barr and member Waller (both at 9 a.m.), and Bostic again (7 p.m.) speak.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to QFIN, LI, and RYAAY.  Then, after the close, JHX, KEYS, NDSN, PANW, TCOM, and ZM report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks and many Fed speakers (Kroszner, Williams, Bostic, Vice Chair Barr, Bostic, and Mester).  Treasury Sec. Yellen also speaks.  Then Wednesday, April Existing Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are reported.  On Thursday, we get Building Permits, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, April New Home Sales, Fed Balance Sheet.  Fed member Bostic also speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, April Core Durable Goods, April Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported and Fed member Waller speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AS, AZO, EXP, LOW, M, OCFT, XPEV, ZIM, MOD, SKY, TOL, URBN, VSAT, and XP.  Then, Wednesday, ADI, DY, GOGL, HOV, WOOF, PDD, TGT, VIPS, WSM, BBAR, SQM, ENS, PLUS, SUPV, NVDA, SNOW, SNPS, TBBB, and VFC report.  On Thursday, we hear from ATAT, BILI, BJ, BEKE, MDT, NTES, PSNY, RL, TD, TITN, CVCO, DECK, INTU, ROST, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday, BAH reports.

So far this morning, ULS beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, RERE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, LI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, QFIN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, the US military pier in Gaza is completed and began operation on Friday.  Humanitarian aid will travel through Cypress, then a mid-Mediterranean trans-shipment point and the smaller ships will deliver to the pier.  The pier will deliver 90 truckloads of aid per day initially with plans to reach a maximum of 150 trucks per day within months.  (At maximum, this would be nearly as much as a open border crossing.)  Meanwhile, AI industry leader OpenAI, eliminated its “AI Safety” (officially called the Superalignment Team) less than a year after creating the team to study and ensure AI risks/threats are controlled.  In addition, OpenAI’s cofounder and chief research scientist, who said “safety culture and processes have taken a backseat to profits” on his way out.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Friday that childcare for two children now exceeds the average rent by 25% IN EVERY STATE.

On Saturday, Bloomberg reported that the US beef cattle supply is at its lowest level since 1961.  The report said Dairy farmers are not just breeding for herd replacement, but are now cross-breeding Dairy cows with beef cattle (artificially).  This allows Dairy farmers to ship calves off to feed-out and slaughter. (A big windfall for an industry that just last summer had to dump milk due to a surplus of supply.) Elsewhere on Saturday, China announced $42 billion to help fix its property crisis.  In addition, it will prop up its Real Estate Sector by relaxing mortgage rules and providing guidance to local and provincial governments to buy up unsold homes to be turned into affordable housing.  In geopolitical news, the US military announced that Yemeni Houthi rebels hit a Greek-owned oil tanker with a missile early Saturday.  (Interestingly, the ship was recently docked in Russia and was headed to China with its cargo.)  The ship lost propulsion and has some flooding, but no casualties were suffered and the ship was later able to get back underway under its own power.  The attack came hours after the Houthi claimed to have shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone.  Elsewhere, a helicopter that was carrying the hard-liner Iranian President Raisi as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahain made what was called a “unexpected and hard landing” (crashed) near the mountainous border of Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan.  Heavy fog and cold slowed the search effort.  However, two people from the helicopter have been in contact with rescuers.  On Monday, Iran announced that both men died in the crash.  This will unsettle oil markets and put many eyes on the Middle East, the succession election in 50 days (a caretaker government is already in place), and the impact on Israeli and Saudi relations.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are trying to cautiously edge higher in the premarket. All three major index ETFs opened up slightly and have printed small, white-bodied candles so far in the early session. All three remain at or very near the all-time highs from last week and are obviously well above their T-lines (8emas). So, the short-term trend remains very bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is also bullish. And the longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned to “fresh air” with no overhead resistance. In terms of extension, as mentioned, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all well above their T-lines and probably need more rest. The T2122 indicator pulled back a bit Friday but still remains in the overbought area. So, again, more pause or pullback are probably needed for a healthy rally if for nothing else. With that said, we have to remember that markets can, and sometimes do, remain overextended longer than we can stay solvent betting on a turn. In short, don’t predict, follow. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green at this point this morning with only APPL (-0.45%) dragging on the QQQ. Meanwhile, the biggest dog of them all, NVDA (+1.41%) is out front pulling the market higher during the early session.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service