Whipsaws and head fakes

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Whipsaws and head fakes

Whipsaws and head fakesAll bulls have remained in charge holding key support, but those pesky bears have certainly made this week challenging with all the whipsaws and head fakes they have used to muck up the works.  I would not expect the bears to give up easily, but the announcement that the US and China will come back to the trade negotiation table may finally inspire the bulls to break for higher ground.  Although still, a very dangerous storm with the east coast hurricane downgraded to a category-2 may also help to lift the mood of the market.

Leaving behind some questionable candle patterns in the indexes yesterday we are not out of the woods just yet and have to remain watchful of those nasty intraday whipsaws and head fakes.  However, the path higher seems to have fewer obstacles to overcome at the moment. Stay focused and price and always be prepared with a plan to deal with whatever the market tosses at us.

On the Calendar

The potential market-moving CPI report and the weekly Jobless Claims kick off the Economic Calendar at 8:30 AM Eastern.  Forecasters expect the CPI to rise 0.3% in August with the overall year-on-year core at 2.3 percent.  Consensus expects 210,000 in initial claims coming off a 50-year low as labor demand remains very high.  We have a Fed Speaker @ 10:00 AM, Natural Gas report at 10:30, three Bond Announcements @ 11:00 AM, another Fed Speaker at 12:30 PM, a 30-Yr. Bond Auction at 1:00 PM, the Treasury Budget at 2:00 PM, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply at 4:30 PM to wrap up the day.

On the Earnings Calendar, we have 33 companies fessing up to their quarterly results.  Before the bell, KR is among those reporting, and ADBE is the most notable after the market close today.

Action Plan

With all the gaps and whipsaws and choppy consolidations, this has been a rather challenging week.  On the positive side, the indexes have held on key supports but so far have not found the energy to follow-through to the upside.  Yesterday it was announced that the US and China could begin another round of trade negotiations.  As a result, Asian markets closed higher across the board with the European markets are mixed but mostly higher.  Consequently, US Futures are suggesting a bullish open as I write this.

The market continues to prone to intraday whipsaws but perhaps with China tariffs temporarily set aside and the east coast hurricane down to a category-2 storm the bulls can produce a more deliberate effort.  While the bears have not shown a lot of strength, they sure have been disruptive, and they will likely not give up easily.  We still need to be watchful of head fakes, and whipsaws so stay focused on price and prepared for anything.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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9-11-18 e-Learning

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Growing Your Portfolio With Stocks and Options

In this video, Doug Campbell discusses simplifying your trading, using stock and options for long-term account growth.  He also covered how to use Trend and Volatility Stop as a tool to grow your account.  Using Heiken-Ashi candles (as a tool for smoothing price movement) to more easily see trend was also discussed.

1 hour 40 minutes

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Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI

 

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks or it’s associates should be considered as financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service

Classic Hit and Run Candlesticks (RBB) Setup bullish on PZZA over $47.00 with a protective stop about $45.60

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Classic Hit and Run Candlesticks (RBB) Setup

PZZA is a classic Hit and Run Candlesticks (RBB) setup looking for relief rally swings. Constructive bottom after a downtrend. A Bullish Morning Star started the game followed by a Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulder that has lead to price challenging the 50-SMA a brief rest then over the 50-SMA we go. Now we have an (RBB) relief rally setup that has a probability of a 10-15% stock trade or a 30% plus option trade. We are bullish on PZZA over $47.00 with a protective stop about $45.60

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

August “Road To Wealth” trading statement posted here Monthly Trading Results

What’s on Rick’s watchlist today? New brokerage statement says 258% increase this year.

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SPY Engulfs

The SPY found Buyers, support and a Bullish Engulf yesterday. The past 6-7 bars have shown how the bears can graze on the weak until they pick on the wrong Bull. It all started with the Inverted Hammer and support which needed and received positive trading the next two days. Yesterdays Bullish Engulf has run a few Bears off. Over the next few days, we need to see more bullish constructive trade to run the rest of the bears off. Over $289.60the Bulls should be free to roam around for a week or so. Below $286.75 would bring the Bears back.

****VXX – Key level for the fear chart (s) (VXX) is $33.40

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This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

Rare to have a service teach you how they find their choices but, HRC/RWO teach you how to fish instead of fishing for you. And, your ideas are not panned but shared, implemented, or improved. Sharing is caring. –Thomas Bradly

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

 

 

PZZA Setup and Trade Plan

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Today’s Featured Trade Idea is PZZA.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews the PZZA setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern.  For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

PZZA was in a long-term downtrend. However, in August, the Bulls stepped back in and have been forming higher-highs and higher-lows for a month or so. In early September, it also broke into a Rounded Bottom Breakout pattern only to promptly take profit on a slight pullback. Over the last 3 days, the bulls have stepped back in, holding the recent trend and breaking back up through the 50sma and a resistance level.

I will look for a positive trade Entry with a Stop tight below the most recent pullback candle bodies (possibly protected by the 50sma and the level just broken). Targets were chosen off a long-term chart (8-days) and the 2nd of these should be at the 200sma when we get there.

Trader Vision shows us that earnings are out of the way and we have a couple months until the next round. It also shows us that this setup has 4 Bullish Conditions versus 2 Bearish Conditions (Long-Term bias of PZZA has not turned Bullish yet and Short-term market pullback).  Still, this is an attractive setup.

TV20/20 then tells us that this Trade Plan offers us over 2.5:1 Reward/Risk at the 1st Target price. In addition, it tells us that if we had to sell the entire position at that 1st Target, we would achieve our Goal profit for the trade. However, if we can sell half at that 1st Target and hold the remainder until the 2nd Target, we would achieve a 3.7:1 ($517.50/$140) Reward/Risk for an overall profit of 11%.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20.  As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The PZZA Trade Setup – As of 9-11-18

PZZA Chart Setup as of 9-11-18

The Trade Plan

PZZA Trade Plan for 9-12-18

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you.  Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions.  Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade.  It really takes the pressure off.  No guesswork.  No surprises.  No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

 

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Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover.  It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not.  It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

 

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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Bulls Stepped Up

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Bulls Stepped Up

Bulls Stepped UpAfter the nasty gap down open yesterday, the bulls stepped up to defend key support levels producing nice bullish engulfing signals on the DIA, SPY, and QQQ.  I honestly was hoping to see a very strong bullish follow-through this morning, but so far the Futures are pointing to muted open.  With a dangerous hurricane bearing down on the east coast and the continued threat of new tariffs a somewhat muted open is not all that surprising.

Bullish engulfing candles are great signals but remember they require a bullish follow-through to be valid.  If the bulls are unable to follow-through, the bears could see that as a sign of weakness and attack.  So come on bulls we need you to dig in and push hard!  It’s very easy to see great bullish signals and become overly biased and over committed to long positions before price confirms direction.  Stay focused on price action and be careful not to load up too heavily long until we see some follow-through.

On the Calendar

We kick off the Wednesday Economic Calendar at 7:00 AM Eastern with the MBA Mortage Applications.  At 8:30 the PPI according to consensus is looking for a 0.2 percent increase in August, and when excluding food, energy and trade services a 0.2 percent gains is also expected.  The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations is at 10:00 AM.  Then the EIA Petroleum Status Report comes out at 10:30 AM and although a market-moving report it’s not forecast forward with a consensus estimate.  We have a Fed Speaker at 12.45 PM and a Bond Auction at 1:00 PM.  Last but not least is the Beige Book release which is used by the FOMC to set monetary policy.  The next FOMC meeting announce is in 2-weeks on 9/26.

On the Earnings Calendar today we have just nine companies reporting.  There are no particularly notable reports before the bell, but after the close TLRD, PVTL & OXM are the most noteworthy.

Action Plan

Another day another nasty whipsaw but this one finished the day on a very positive note.  The DIA and SPY supports were not only defended, but Bulls rallied with enough energy to leave behind bullish engulfing candles.  The QQQ also produced a bullish engulfing candle rallying back to an important resistance level while the IWM held support but largely rested.  Asian market closed down across the board last night, and the current European markets are mixed but mostly positive.

Bullish engulfing candles are great but still require bullish follow-through price action to confirm the signal.  As I write this, the US Futures are suggesting only a modestly higher open this morning.  I must admit I was hoping for a bit more bullishness this morning following such a nice reaction to support levels yesterday.  However, with a powerful hurricane bearing down on the east coast and the lingering threats of new tariffs it’s not all that surprising to see a slightly muted response.  The good news, at least for now, is that it’s bullish but be careful not to chase and stay focused on price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Doji Continuation Pattern Challenging Breakout bullish on THS over $54.25 with a protective stop about $52.30

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Doji Continuation Pattern Challenging Breakout

THS has crafted a Doji Continuation that is challenging recent highs for a breakout. Starting about July price action stated to draw a Bullish “W” Pattern that confirmed on August 23. Followed by a six candle T-Line Run, an Engulf and a Doji yesterday has set the chart up for a Doji Continuation Pattern. The 34-EMA has crossed back over the 50-SMA to confirm the trend price started early August. We are bullish on THS over $54.25 with a protective stop about $52.30

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

August “Road To Wealth” trading statement posted here Monthly Trading Results

What’s on Rick’s watchlist today? New brokerage statement says 258% increase.

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SPY • DIA’s

The SPY failed to close over the Inverted Hammer and the T-Line (8-EMA). Price did break the new low streak by making a higher low and high. The SPY is in a place of indecision, struggling to make a choice. I also think the important chart to look at today is the DIA’s. The DIA’s closed yesterday with a Bearish Engulf and the pre-morning trading suggest the Bearish Engulf will see follow-through likely to test the 20-SMA. If the buyers can not step in front of the sellers, the DIA’s may see the 34-EMA by the end of the week. The Bulls need to carve out a reversal pattern that pushes the price over the T-Line at least once to start the bullish climb.

****VXX – VXX gaped down yesterday to the T-Line and held forming a Doji. If fear steps to the door price action could easily challenge the 50-SMA. If the VXX chart is successful with the 50-SMA, the $35.00 area is a good probability.

 

Focus Trading Education

Candlesticks • Price Action • T-Line • T-Line Bands • Support • Resistance • Trend • Trendlines • Chart Patterns • Buy Box • Volatility Stops • Profit Zones • Entry Zones • Protective Stops • RBB Rounded Bottom Breakout Strategy • Pop Out of The Box Strategy • Pinball Strategy • Trade Planning, Fibonacci, Stoch/RSI

Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Testimonial

This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

Rare to have a service teach you how they find their choices but, HRC/RWO teach you how to fish instead of fishing for you. And, your ideas are not panned but shared, implemented, or improved. Sharing is caring. –Thomas Bradly

 

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

 

 

THS Setup and Trade Plan

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Today’s Featured Trade Idea is THS.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews the THS setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern.  For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

THS has been in an uptrend since Spring. After a summer pullback, the Bulls have been running again in August. Then a short profit-taking J-hook was completed last week, ending in a Doji Continuation signal at the b/o level. On Monday, it printed another Doji just above the b/o.  I will be looking for a continuation of the bullish run, with an Entry near Monday’s close and a Stop set below a shelf of Support. Two targets are defined off longer-term charts.

Trader Vision shows us that earnings are out of the way and we have about 2 months until they come around again. It also tells us that this setup has 5 Bullish conditions and 1 Bearish condition (short-term symbol trend) in favor of this chart.

TV20/20 also shows us that this Trade Plan does provide us more than 2:1 Reward/Risk at the 1st Target. However, if we can follow this plan, selling half at that 1st Target and holding the rest up to the 2nd Target, we can achieve 3.36:1 ($498.56/$148.20) Reward/Risk. In addition, TV20/20 tells us that THS only needs to reach $58.86 in order to sell the positions and make our Trade Goal profit.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20.  As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The THS Trade Setup – As of 9-10-18

THS Chart Setup as of 9-10-18

The Trade Plan

THS Trade Plan for 9-11-18

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you.  Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions.  Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade.  It really takes the pressure off.  No guesswork.  No surprises.  No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

 

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/8Sja8B0Vw78″ new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]

Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…

[button_2 color=”orange” align=”center” href=”https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/product/trader-vision-20-20-monthly-subscription2/” new_window=”Y”]TV20/20 Software[/button_2]

 

Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover.  It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not.  It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

 

***************************************************************************************************

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

***************************************************************************************************

Pop and Drop

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Pop and Drop

Pop and DropAfter gaping up nearly 90 points yesterday, the Dow found the only sellers and delivering the classic pop and drop whipsaw.  Leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle on the DIA suggest a lower print today but the fact the index continues to hold about a key support continues to give the Bulls a slight edge.  On the other hand, the NASDAQ appears to be the most vulnerable as it lingers below a key resistance level.

Yesterday I cautioned about chasing a gap caught up with the fear-of-missing-out.  The same caution holds true today.  It is just as wrong to chase a gap down as it is to chase a gap up.  Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me!  Emotional undisciplined trading is the pitfall for the majority of retail traders.  Don’t play that game and watch your account continue to be chopped up.  Today after the gap down wait and watch for follow-through because there is just as much chance of whipsaw up near support as there was for the pop and drop yesterday.

On the Calendar

Today’s Economic Calendar kicks off early today, but there is only one potential market-moving report.  We begin with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index @ 6:00 AM then the Redbook at 8:55 AM.  The JOLTS report at 10:00 AM expects job openings to increase slightly to 6.670 million in July vs. 6.662 million in June continuing the trend of strong demand for labor.  Wholesale Trade is also @ 10:00 AM and we have three Bond Auctions between 11:30 AM and 1:00 PM to finish the Calendar day.

On the Earnings Calendar today we have just ten companies reporting results, and none of them are particularly noteworthy.  Make sure to keep checking because being surprised by an earnings report can prove to be a costly mistake!

Action Plan

Yesterday I cautioned about chase the morning gap and getting caught up with the fear of missing out.  The DIA found only sellers after gapping up nearly 90 points with the classic pop and drop whipsaw leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle.  The SPY and IWM faired better closing down on the day but continued to hold above Friday’s low prints while the QQQ stalled below resistance.  Currently, the Dow Futures are suggesting a gap down of equal magnitude of yesterdays gap up.

The good news is that the DIA, SPY, and IWM remain above key supports that could be defended by the bulls.  The QQQ’s appear to be the most vulnerable to a bear attack currently under price resistance.  If selling pressure continues after the market, open clues to future selling might manifest in the QQQ’s first.  Remember the Bulls will not likely give up easily so watch for a potential whipsaw back up at or near support levels.  It is just as wrong to get caught up, chasing a gap down as it is to chase a gap up.

Trade Wisley,

Doug

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