Predictions

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Predictions

PredictionsOver the weekend there seemed to be a flurry of traders posting predictions of the week ahead.  They ranged from the extremely bullish to those shouting the sky is about to fall.  As short-term swing traders, what you think will happen is far less important than how you react to what is happening!  Predicting can create a bias that clouds the view of price action signals that leads to all kinds of trading mistakes.

Have you ever missed a fantastic trade because you were sure the market would tank or lost a bucket full of money because you were sure you had a no lose position?  That’s the result of predicting and trading your bias while ignoring the clues the market was presenting.  Fight the market, and you will lose.  Listen to the market, learn to follow it’s lead and trading becomes much easier.

On the Calendar

We begin the last week of September with a busy week on the Economic Calendar.  However, today there are no expected market-moving reports.  At 8:30 AM Eastern is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index report and then the Dallas Fed Mfg Survey @ 10:00 AM.  We have 4-Bond events between 11:00 AM and 1:00 PM to wrap up the calendar day.

Today on the Earnings Calendar we have 16 companies reporting, but there are none particularly notable with almost all of the classified as penny stocks.

Action Plan

After very strong rallies in the DIA and SPY, last week momentum certainly favors the Bulls.  Trends are bullish, and all the major indexes are above key supports.  However, having moved up so far so fast, a rest or even a profit-taking pullback is not out of the question.  Toss in a heavy Economic Calendar week topped by the FOMC meeting announcement at 2:00 PM Wednesday and the potential for the end of quarter window dressing to occur and we could face a challenging week ahead.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher with the new 10% tariffs on 200 billion in Chinese imports kicking in today.  European markets are currently in the red across the board.  US Futures are pointing to a modestly lower open this morning, but the gap down in the QQQ is the most concerning.  Leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle on Friday and falling below a key price support this morning should be closely watched.  If bears take it below 180, it could easily trigger some fear in the market so keep a close on the price action.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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Markets Mission Not To Disappoint, But It Will

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Markets Mission Not To Disappoint, But It Will

The SPY and the market seem to be on a mission to not disappoint, but it will. Putting aside normal profit-taking pullbacks the trend from April this year has been fantastic for the bull trader!

The SPY has marched higher (Higher Highs) paused for profit taking (higher Lows), and the again marched higher, time after time. One has to wonder when will the market tire out and surrender to the sellers. Well, the truth is it will someday. The wise swing trader knows not to predict but to understand Price Action and trade the charts, not the “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO). Swing traders understand that Monday through Thursday they can make money and Friday can come alone and you might not make any money, swing traders understand and know they made a profit the first four days of the week. The point is not every day will be a money making day, and we must remember while we are trading for profit we also want to protect what we have earned.

Yesterday the SPY gapped and closed higher on big volume as it gets closer to the upper channel line. As we approach, and even now I believe caution and protecting profits should be our #1 concern going forward for the next several days maybe even weeks. I see many traders (myself as well) are stepping into insurance trades to protect and offset any losses that may occur.

Tradervision featured trade idea – GSM

Link to Tradervision blog BLOG

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020 or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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Markets Mission Not To Disappoint, But It Will

The SPY and the market seem to be on a mission to not disappoint, but it will. Putting aside normal profit-taking pullbacks the trend from April this year has been fantastic for the bull trader!

The SPY has marched higher (Higher Highs) paused for profit taking (higher Lows), and the again marched higher, time after time. One has to wonder when will the market tire out and surrender to the sellers. Well, the truth is it will someday. The wise swing trader knows not to predict but to understand Price Action and trade the charts, not the “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO). Swing traders understand that Monday through Thursday they can make money and Friday can come alone and you might not make any money, swing traders understand and know they made a profit the first four days of the week. The point is not every day will be a money making day, and we must remember while we are trading for profit we also want to protect what we have earned.

Yesterday the SPY gapped and closed higher on big volume as it gets closer to the upper channel line. As we approach, and even now I believe caution and protecting profits should be our #1 concern going forward for the next several days maybe even weeks. I see many traders (myself as well) are stepping into insurance trades to protect and offset any losses that may occur.

 

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Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020 or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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Markets Mission Not To Disappoint, But It Will

by

Markets Mission Not To Disappoint, But It Will

The SPY and the market seem to be on a mission to not disappoint, but it will. Putting aside normal profit-taking pullbacks the trend from April this year has been fantastic for the bull trader!

The SPY has marched higher (Higher Highs) paused for profit taking (higher Lows), and the again marched higher, time after time. One has to wonder when will the market tire out and surrender to the sellers. Well, the truth is it will someday. The wise swing trader knows not to predict but to understand Price Action and trade the charts, not the “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO). Swing traders understand that Monday through Thursday they can make money and Friday can come alone and you might not make any money, swing traders understand and know they made a profit the first four days of the week. The point is not every day will be a money making day, and we must remember while we are trading for profit we also want to protect what we have earned.

Yesterday the SPY gapped and closed higher on big volume as it gets closer to the upper channel line. As we approach, and even now I believe caution and protecting profits should be our #1 concern going forward for the next several days maybe even weeks. I see many traders (myself as well) are stepping into insurance trades to protect and offset any losses that may occur.

 

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Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020 or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.

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New All-Time Highs

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New all-time highs

All-Time HighsFortune favored the bold this week with the Dow surging over 575 in three days to set new all-time highs for the index.  Not wanting to be left behind the SP-500 joined in on the bull run also closing at a new record high.  Clearly, the bulls are in control, but I am just a little concerned that exuberance may have temporally over extended prices in the short-term, particularly in the Dow.  As a result, I was a net profit taker yesterday and will likely continue to do so today reducing my risk into the weekend.

Please don’t misunderstand I am not bearish, and currently, there are no signals in the market to suggest bearishness!  I am simply following my rules of taking-profits into strength and doing my job as a trader; making money!  Remember today is Quadruple Witching day which can result in increased volatility and very choppy price action.  Also as you plan your risk into next week keep in mind w have an upcoming FOMC meeting and a possible interest rate increase for the market to deal with.

On the Calendar

A very light day on the Friday Economic Calendar with only two reports neither expected to move the market.  The PMI Composite FLASH comes out at 9:45 AM Eastern followed by the Baker-Hughes Rig Count at 1:00 PM.

Only two Earnings Reports today, both happen after the close today.  They are ELLO and NTZ which are very insignificant reports.

Action Plan

The Bulls showed tremendous energy yesterday gaping up, holding the gap and then continuing higher the rest of the day in both the Dow and the SP-500.  The Dow closed up 251 points on the day and more than 577 points in just 3-days to set a new all-time high.  The SP-500 also closed at a new record high while the NASDAQ challenged the price resistance of last week.  Overnight Asian market all closed higher and European markets are currently very bullish across the board.

As I write this, the Futures are pointing to a flat to modestly bullish open, but you may notice that the SPY is indicated to open lower due to dividend payments.   Today is a Quadruple Witching day which means market index futures, index options, stock options, and stock futures all expire today which usually results in increased volatility.  With very little economic news and earnings reports to drive the market, we could see an exceptionally choppy day.  I used the rally yesterday to take several profits and will very likely do more profit-taking today to reduce my risk heading into the weekend.  As you plan ahead, remember that the FOMC begins next week and interest rates are likely to rise.  Have an awesome weekend everyone.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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GSM Setup and Trade Plan

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Today’s Featured Trade Idea is GSM.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews the GSM setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern.  For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

GSM has been in a long-term downtrend. However, a month ago the bulls stepped in to reverse matters. After a very strong run that took GSM into a RBB pattern, the stock has been in a profit-taking pullback the last couple weeks. It is important to note that it held the 50sma and a support level (about 7.95) on the pullback. Now the bulls have stepped back in and pushed off that support.

I will look for a b/o Entry with a Stop down at the tops of the most recent pullback highs. The targets come from long-term charts 5-8day charts) and I am planning this as a 2 target plan…but a 3-target plan is certainly possible if the overall market cooperates and GSM continues to work.

Trader Vision tells us we have 2 months until the next earnings report. It also tells us that we have 5 bullish versus only 1 bearish condition. We also expect this bearish condition since the stock has been in a successful pullback (which held support). So we can tell this is a nice chart setup.

TV20/20 then tells is that this trade plan offers us a decent Reward/Risk at the 1st Target price (2.12:1, with the ability to essentially make our Trade Goal at that point). However, if we can sell half at the 1st Target while holding the remainder until Target 2, we can get a 3.3:1 Reward Risk ($527.50 / $160). Overall, this would give us a 12.38% trade.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20.  As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The GSM Trade Setup – As of 9-20-18

GSM Chart Setup as of 9-20-18

The Trade Plan

GSM Trade Plan for 9-21-18

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you.  Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions.  Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade.  It really takes the pressure off.  No guesswork.  No surprises.  No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

 

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/U4TsqMPJVG8″ new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]

Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…

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Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover.  It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not.  It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

 

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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Trade Alert

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Good Morning team.

We have been keeping in an eye on XLP and this morning it looks very good.  Consider the JAN 52 Calls with a stop below $54.25.

We have also been watching MDLZ Consider the 40 or 41 JAN Calls with a stop below $42.90.

MDXG Setup and Trade Plan

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Today’s Featured Trade Idea is MDXG.

Members can join us in Trading Room #1 as Rick reviews the MDXG setup and other Trade-Ideas at 9:10am Eastern.  For now, here are my own analysis and a potential trade plan made using our Trader Vision 20/20 software.

MDXG has been in a large RBB pattern for a month. In the last 2 weeks, it has created a PBO (Pullback Opportunity) and the bulls have stepped back in off of Trendline and Fib support.

I will be looking for a positive trading Entry, using the J-hook b/o level as Target #1, the 23.6% Fib Ext. (which matches a longer-term chart S/R level) as target #2 and a longer-term chart S/R level as Target #3. The initial Stop will be quite tight below the $5.45 level MDXG broke through yesterday.

Trader Vision 20/20 shows us that we likely have over a month before earnings come around again. It also tells us we should be a little more cautious, because setup conditions are evenly split between bullish and bearish.

TV20/20 told us this plan would not offer a good enough Reward/Risk as originally planned. However, after deciding to accept a tighter Stop this Trade Plan will work. We can get a 2.13:1 Reward/Risk at the 1st Target, 4:1 at the 2nd Target and 7.09:1 overall if we reach the 3rd Target. We can also see that TV20/20 tells us the ticker must reach $6.02 in order to make our goal on the trade (which is a bit above the first target).

In short, TV20/20 is urging caution on this trade setup. That is a valuable warning we may well have missed without this software.

Having this knowledge before a trade is even entered makes it much easier to control emotions and maintain discipline.

Below is my markup of the chart and the trade plan as laid out by Trader Vision 20/20.  As a bonus, if you click the green button below, you’ll be able to watch a video of the chart markup and trade planning process.

The MDXG Trade Setup – As of 9-19-18

MDXG Chart Setup as of 9-19-18

The Trade Plan

MDXG Trade Plan for 9-20-18

Note how Trader Vision 20/20 does so much of the work for you.  Knowing the ratio of Bullish Conditions to Bearish ones as well as the overall risk of the position size, risk to Stop out and the Reward possible at each Target price can help a great deal with controlling our emotions.  Knowing the dollar impact of every scenario ahead of time, allows us to make calm decisions during the trade.  It really takes the pressure off.  No guesswork.  No surprises.  No emotional roller coaster.

To see a short video of this trade’s chart markup and trade planning, click the button below.

 

[button_2 color=”light-green” align=”center” href=”https://youtu.be/Co6sqwoF3sw” new_window=”Y”]Trade Plan Video[/button_2]

Put the power to Trader Vision 20/20 to work for you…

[button_2 color=”orange” align=”center” href=”https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/product/trader-vision-20-20-monthly-subscription2/” new_window=”Y”]TV20/20 Software[/button_2]

 

Testimonial

Trader Vision immediately simplified the process…immediately it provided that information and guidance to me. I knew what I would risk for how much reward, I began taking trades off at the 1st target, 2nd target, I was no longer holding all my trades for the homerun. I also began implementing the stop losses if and when they were reached, not just hoping the stock would recover.  It then became easier to see what patterns were working for me and which were not.  It provided a much more relaxed and stress-free environment. –Joan G

 

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Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and are not suitable for everyone. Ed Carter is not a licensed financial adviser nor does he offer trade recommendations or investment advice to anyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc. is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

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Trending (RBB) J-Hook Continuation Pattern Bullish above $5.52, stop near $5.37

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Trending (RBB) J-Hook Continuation Pattern

MDXG is a trending (RBB) Rounded Bottom Breakout with a J-Hook continuation pattern that has found support in the T-Line Bands with about 46% to the 200-SMA. The 2-day chart is set up with a Bullish Morning Star (PBO) Pull Back Opportunity on the T-Line. Price is currently in stage 3 of a continuation pattern, above $5.52 will be stage 4 and the money stage. Bullish above $5.86, stop near $5.37

Don’t eat like a bird and poop like an elephant

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Good Trading, Rick, and Trading Team

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SPY • Trending

The SPY is still holding above the T-Line and trapped below the 3-EMAH and the $291.92 2018 high line. You can replay the T-Line Trap video here. 

Our 35-day T-Line Bands are in a beautiful bullish trend and price action that has moved with perfection with the bands. (SPY) Price closed yesterday between bands, so the question today is will price break through the upper band and challenge 2018 high $291.92. If the price falls below $289.35, an undesirable pullback will occur but the morning futures are being led by the bulls so far.

 

****VXX – The VXX gapped down yesterday and held, at the moment there seems to be no fear in this bullish resilient market.

Focus Trading Education

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Testimonial

This is not your usual service that sends out a ton of stock recommendations, and then cherry picks the winners to show you how great they are. Hit and Run Candlesticks and Right Way Options are truly educational services. They taught me how to trade not what to trade. The entire team: Rick, Doug, Steve, and Ed are there to help and answer your questions. They are awesome. They cut years off my learning curve. And it’s a team effort. Everyone in the room (all the members) are there to help with invaluable insights and advice. The only service you will ever need. Thanks to all the team for how you have helped me and for all you do. –Jonathan Bolnick

Rare to have a service teach you how they find their choices but, HRC/RWO teach you how to fish instead of fishing for you. And, your ideas are not panned but shared, implemented, or improved. Sharing is caring. –Thomas Bradly

 

 

Past performance is not indicative of future returns

Investing and Trading involve significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, Right Way Option, Trader Vision 2020, Top Gun Futures or Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is to be considered financial or trading advice. All information is intended for Educational Purposes Only. Terms of Service.

Rick Saddler, Doug Campbell, Ed Carter, Steve Risner is not a licensed financial adviser nor do they offer trade recommendations or advice to anyone.