More delays of reopening

More delays

With coronavirus surging around in many US states, the business remains under tremendous pressure with additional closures and further delays of reopening of the economy.  The huge back to the school shopping season is also in question as school districts and parents grapple with the difficult decisions of reopening and child safety. Yesterday’s mild selloff left more questions with bearish candle patterns appearing on the index charts at possible highs or near resistance levels.  With the VIX rising in yesterday’s close expect price volatility to remain high and extreme sensitivity to news events.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher, with Shanghai rising 1.74%.  European markets are seeing modest declines across the board this morning as the surge in pandemic infections worries investors.  US Futures chop around the flat-line this morning with a light day of earnings and economic news.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Hump day earnings calendar, we have just 14 companies expected to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include BBBY, MSM & SMPL.

News and Technical’s

US coronavirus infections have topped 3-million cases with states reporting more than 55,000 instances yesterday and 993 deaths.  Arizona has seen a 26% increase in infections with the WHO suggesting just a 5% increase is troubling.  In response to rapidly rising cases and hospitalizations, Texas canceled the state fair while San Francisco delays reopening indoor dining.  It’s no wonder that parents have concerns about sending their children back to school this fall, and retailers worry about the back to the school shopping season.  The President is suggesting he will do all he can to pressure schools to reopen.  Tensions between the US and Chiana continue to grow after the FBI Director slammed their government for the use of espionage and cyberattacks against the United States.  He said the stakes could not be higher, and the potential economic harm to American business as a whole almost defies calculation.  These comments come on the heels of the Secretary of State threatening to ban Chinese social media apps.

After a gap down open, the bulls once again attempted a rally to test resistance levels but found resistance and ultimately selling off by the close.  Potential bearish candle patterns such as an abandoned baby pattern or evening star patterns were left behind on the DIA, SPY.  The QQQ left behind the uncertainty of a shooting star pattern, and the VIX rose above a 29 handle.  Declining issues far outpaced advancing issues after the Schwab pointed out that 90% of the current market rally is attributed to just the top 10% of companies.  This colossal imbalance raises the question, what happens to the market should these tech giants begin to selloff? An interesting question to ponder as we head for a relatively flat open with a light day of earnings and economic news.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Futures Flat Early With No Driver

Stocks gapped down half a percent perhaps following Europe and perhaps in profit-taking after the recent run-up.  In either case, there was a morning rally to fade that gap and take markets higher.  However, then an all-afternoon selloff took over with prices closing near the lows.  This brings the possibility of a new “lower high” in charts of the large-caps, but the QQQ remains solidly bullish in trend.  On the day, SPY fell 1.03%, DIA fell 1.51%, and QQQ fell 0.69%.  VXX gained 3% to 33.39 and T2122 fell near oversold territory at 22.46.  The 10-year bond yield fell to 0.64% as money bought up bonds and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $40.49/barrel.

During the afternoon, FB reportedly had a bad call with the organizers of the advertising boycott they are suffering.  Multiple outlets report the call “didn’t go well” as the company failed to address any of the boycott’s 10 demands. So, no change in the positions of the sides, but FB is apparently unfazed since their top advertisers aren’t participating in the boycott and the stock is trading near all-time highs. This all came as a 2-year audit of FB civil rights record (commissioned by FB and carried out by a former ACLU executive) found shortcomings and a mixed record at best as outlined in a 100-page report released this morning.

Three Fed speakers (Bostic, Mester, Daly) also spoke Tuesday and all said problems remain in the economy.  More importantly they see a leveling or even slowing in the recovery over the last week or two.   All three said additional fiscal stimulus is needed from Congress and the White House. They also all reiterated that they don’t foresee Fed tightening or any reduction of monetary stimulus until at least 2022-2023. 

In the US, the virus numbers show we now have 3,097,538 confirmed cases and 133,991 deaths.  This includes 60,000 new cases on Tuesday as 36 states are reporting at least a 5% increase in their 7-day average of new cases.  Among them, TX reported more than 10,000 new cases on Tuesday (a record) as their positive test rate sits at 13.5%.  FL is also seeing a huge spike in test positivity with 16.3% of tests coming back positive.  However, there has seen a little decrease in actual new cases, which was welcome as 78% of the state’s hospital beds and 83% of the state’s ICU beds are filled.  In NJ, movie theatre chains AMC and CNK have filed a lawsuit against the state, claiming that keeping theatres closed is unconstitutional.  Meanwhile, Dr. Birx (White House Task Force) told Bloomberg she praises those governors who have mandated masks despite the President’s resistance, citing TX Governor Abbott specifically.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 11,980,389 confirmed cases and 547,321 deaths.  In Spain, there was a blow to hopes for those who support the idea of “herd immunity.”  A study has found that only 5% of the Spanish population has antibodies, despite being one of the countries hit hardest in the percentage of population contracting the disease. (For reference, experts say 70% would need antibodies to provide effective herd immunity).  The surge in cases also continues in Latin America, with Mexico, Brazil, and several other countries South of the Border reporting record increases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  China was up almost 2% and Hong Kong was also solidly green.  However, Japan, Australia, and India were all solidly red while South Korea was down a quarter of a percent.  In Europe, markets are red across the board, but on smaller moves. The minor exceptions to that rule are Greece and Norway, which are just on the green side of flat at this point of the day.  As of 7:30am, US futures are all just on the green side of flat at this point.

The only major economic news for Wednesday is Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The only earnings reports for the day are MSM before the open and BBBY after the close.

Tuesday’s candles were ugly.  However, the bears still showed no teeth with no panic or heavy selling pressure coming in.  Instead, it just seemed like the bulls paused to take a breath rather than actually showing fear of the virus surge.  With that said, we have to respect the lower-high if we get follow-through today by the large-caps.  So, take care of getting too bullish, but also remember the only bearish traders that have not been punished in recent months are those that are fast and obey their stops. Keep an eye on the short-term chart.  Don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go). 

Ed

Daily trade ideas have been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The struggle to find follow-through

struggle

The NASDAQ lept higher yesterday, setting new records while the Dow, SP-500, and Russell struggled to find follow-through to break price resistance levels.  In a pattern that’s becoming all too familiar of late, the big morning gap struggled to find buyers or sellers as it chopped sideways the majority of the day.  This morning with the EU forecasting an 8.3% economic slump and the US states beginning more business shutdowns, it looks as if the big gap this morning will be down trapping those that chased in yesterday.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight.  European markets fall on concerning economic data with the DAX, FTSE, and CAC down 1% or more this morning.  US Futures in reaction to virus-related business uncertainty suggest a substantial gap down at the open ahead of a light day of earnings and economic reports.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Tuesday earnings calendar, we have 10-companies fessing up to quarterly earnings.  Notable reports include LEVI and PAYX.

News and Technical’s

We have reached nearly 3 million coronavirus cases in the United States, with several states doubling infection rates in just two weeks.  Florida is once again closing restaurants, health clubs, and group party venues, and some areas in Texas are reaching hospital capacity.  Australia closed interstate borders in an attempt to slow the spread of the pandemic, and the Governor of California asks indoor business to close.  With more and more states adding to shutdown orders and mulling future restrictions, it would seem the economic recovery continues to face considerable challenges.   As tensions grow with China, the US is conducting war games in the South China Sea and, at the same time, looking at banning social media apps such as TikTok.  During the night, the EU cut its economic forecasts for the region and is now projecting an 8.3% decline in the economy this year.

Yesterday’s big morning gap struggled to find follow-through buyers spending most of the day chopping sideways.  The DIA, on a last-minute surge at the end of the day, breached the resistance of its 200-day average.  Although the SPY tried hard to break the resistance of the early June island reversal pattern, it closed the day, failing to breakthrough.  The QQQ lept higher with the tech giants leading the way while the IWM closed the day lower once again, unable to reach its 200- day average.  With a light day of earnings and economic news, the market seems to have turned its attention to the impacts of the viral surge that is prompting business shutdowns in several states.  As of now, the US futures are pointing to a gap down open that has the potential to create abandoned baby patterns at resistance in the DIA and SPY.   With the VIX remaining elevated, expect the wild price volatility to continue today.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Futures Point to Lower Open

Markets gapped higher Monday, following Europe and Asia in follow-through to the pre-holiday rally.  After a volatile session (volatile above the gap), prices closed not too far from the highs.  The mega-cap tech names led the way with AMZN up almost 6%, leading to another all-time high close in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY closed up 1.53%, DIA up 1.77%, and QQQ up 2.46%.  The VXX closed down just slightly to 32.28 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 63.46.  10-year bond yields closed up to 0.678% and oil was up slightly to $40.65/barrel.

After the close, Fitch reported that commercial mortgages posted the largest increase in delinquencies ever in June, with 3.6% of all commercial mortgages now delinquent.  Unsurprisingly, hotels (11.49% delinquent) and retail (7.86% delinquent) lead the list.  Retail consultancy ShopperTrak also told CNBC that consumers have begun to retreat again as virus cases surge.  The last two weeks of their retail store surveys show a decline in shopper traffic for the first time since the first week of April.

Last night, Secretary of State Pompeo told Fox News that the US is looking at banning TikTok (who cooperates with Chinese authorities) and Chinese social media apps in a clear attempt to ratchet tensions.  What is unclear is how the US would legally do that and what benefit the US gains from such action.  For that matter, it’s unclear how such a move would negatively impact China.  However, what is obvious is that US-companies like FB, TWTR, GOOG and other social platforms will be in the cross-hairs from the Chinese side if any such measures are taken by the US. 

In the US, the virus numbers show we’ve now topped 3 million cases at 3,041,129 confirmed cases and 132,993 deaths.  We recorded another 50,500 cases Monday with 32 states reporting an increasing rate of new infections.  However, the daily death count continues to fall with the 7-day average just over 500/day.  In TX, the military deployed medical personnel at the request of FEMA as hospitals around San Antonio are feeling the strain of virus cases.  Still, at least at this point, this is a very small deployment compared, for example, to the military support sent to New York in April.  In CA, Governor Newsom “asked” more of its counties to close indoor venues and businesses as the stat’s positive result rate has climbed to 6.8%. 

Globally, the number of cases has reached 11,770,153 confirmed cases and 541,490 deaths.  In Europe, the EU cut its GDP forecast from an already abysmal 7.4% contraction (May forecast) to an 8.3% contraction for 2020.  In Brazil, their President has canceled all his events for the week and was taken to hospital for coronavirus testing after “feeling unwell” and showing a high fever.  He was released, but was wearing a mask and told people to stay away from him as a safety measure upon release.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  China was well into the green, but Japan, Hong Kong, and South Korea were all well into the red.  In Europe, their own economic data and fear over the US virus surge has markets red across the board.  The big 3 bourses are all down over 1.1% at this point in their day.  As of 7:30am, US futures are looking to follow Europe, pointing toward a gap down between half a percent (QQQ) and 1.05% (DIA).

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to May JOLTS (10 am).  However, there are 3 FOMC speakers, Bostic (9 am), Quarles (1 pm), and Daly (2 pm).  The only earnings report for the day is PAYX before the open.

The bulls have shown no fear of bad economic or the virus surge.  Along those lines, the bears have shown no teeth recently either.  With that said, markets may need a rest (especially the QQQ).  So, an inside day might not be a bad thing at all.  Either way, continue to be careful, but don’t buck the bullish trend unless you are fast.  Don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go). 

Ed

Daily trade ideas have been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

More Bull Pressure

Bull Pressure

With markets around the world surging under bull pressure while at the same time coronavirus infection rates set new records, one has to wonder if the rally is real or if the world is suffering from a major case of denial?  I guess we will find out if companies can support these prices with 3rd quarter earnings just around the corner.  Set for a big gap up open, the indexes will be testing key moving averages resistance levels as well as the island reversal patterns created in early June.  The question for today, will we see follow-through buying after the gap, or will it produce another pop and drop pattern like Friday?

Asian markets closed sharply higher overnight, with the Shanghai index leaping nearly 5.75%.  European markets are very bullish this morning with the DAX, FTSE, & CAC all higher by more than 1.5%.  US Futures point to a substantial gap up at the open as the bulls push once again push for new record highs in the tech sector.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On Monday’s earnings calendar, we have 35 companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  However, looking through the list, I’m not finding any of today’s reports as particularly notable. 

News and Technical’s

After a holiday, 3-day weekend markets around the world surge higher.  With 3rd quarter earnings only a couple weeks away, there seems to be no price too high as market leaders set new records.  I can’t decide if this rally is justified or if the entire world is suffering from a major case of denial.  Over the weekend, health departments reported increased infection rates in 40-State with some Texas regions reaching their hospital capacity.  Florida reported more than 10,000 new infections each day of the long weekend.  Lawlessness is also on the rise with more 40 shootings in New York alone that resulted in an 8-year old innocent bystander killed by a stray bullet.  Although 1.4 million people filed for unemployment last week, the Employment situation number better than expected rehiring occurred over the previous month.  With unemployment, at 11%, the market appears to ultra-confident that the coming earnings season will support current stock prices.

With the market set to open with a huge gap up open, the DIA and IWM will once again attempt to break above their 200-day averages.  The QQQ will challenge new record highs, and the SPY will test the resistance fo the island reversal pattern printed in early June.  I expect T2122 to reach into the bearish reversal zone at the open, so be careful chasing the open with a fear of missing out.  Please make sure there are follow-through buyers rather than the pop and drop pattern like we saw on Friday’s morning gap.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Bulls Come Back From 4th in Good Mood

On Thursday, bulls gapped markets up 1.25% on better than expected June Job creation and then got another half percent follow-through.  However, at 10 am the floor fell out and the rest of the day was a volatile selloff.  The session ended with ugly black candles that closed near the lows.  However, keep in mind this was after the gap-up and it was a pre-holiday “virtual Friday.”  At the close, SPY was up 0.55%, DIA up 0.43%, and QQQ up 0.68% to a new all-time high close.  VXX fell again to 32.32 and the T2122 (4-week High-Low Ratio) remains in the mid-range at 63.89.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.669% and Oil (WTI) climbed back about the magic $40 level to close at $40.29.

On Sunday, BRKB bought the natural gas transmission and storage assets of D for $10 billion (cash and debt assumption).  This increases the BRKB share of the US natural gas transmission market to 18%.  D says it will use $3 billion of proceeds from the deal to buy-back its own shares toward year-end, but cut its dividend immediately.  Later, in another story, D also canceled a joint venture with DUK on an Atlantic coast pipeline.

However, the main storyline remains the conflict between economic recovery and the spread of the virus.  Related to this, on Sunday, GS announced a revised the 2020 US GDP forecast downward again.  They now expect that new state-level restrictions and changes in behavior by the public will reduce Q3 growth from 33% to 25%, which should also result in a 4.6% contraction in annual GDP.  That number is down from their prior 4.2% contraction forecast. 

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

In the US, the numbers show we’ve now had 2,983,155 confirmed cases and 132,571 deaths. The case count continues to surge unchecked, as the percent of tests that come back positive keeps climbing and we have about 45,000 new cases per day in the US.  For example, FL now exceeds 14% positive and TX exceeds 13% positive results on tests.  Two TX counties have reached full capacity on hospital beds and ICU beds and are urging residents to shelter-in-place in an attempt to avoid new cases.

Globally, the numbers have reached 11,586,780 confirmed cases and 537,372 deaths.  The W.H.O. reports this includes over 200,000 cases in a day globally for the first time on Saturday.  In Europe this weekend, ECB President Lagarde said she expects about 2 years of disinflation pressure caused by the virus. As a result of this, she said the ECB will also “keep monetary policy extraordinarily loose.”  This comes as Spain locked down two regions again amidst a 20% increase in cases for the week.  In Asia, Australia is closing the border between its two largest-population states as outbreaks continue in many areas of those states.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green, with China leading the way (and on increased trading volume).  The only red came in Australia and Thailand.  Europe is following Asia’s lead as every European exchange is up at least 1% at this point in the day.  The big 3 bourses are averaging a 1.8% gain at their mid-day.  As of 7:30am, US futures are looking to follow the rest of the world to build on last week’s momentum. Right now, all 3 major US indices are pointing to a gap higher of over 1.1% at the open.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to June Services PMI (9:45 am) and June ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am).  There are no earnings reports on the day.

As I said earlier, the market is torn between recovery hope and the virus.  However, bulls have not shown any real fear in months.  A Bloomberg talking head summed the market up nicely last evening.  “Good data is great and markets go up.  Bad news is great, because it means more stimulus and markets go up.  Short of Armageddon, the bears are can’t win this fight.”

That being the case, we can’t take too much away from Thursday’s ugly candles.  Regardless of the way the candles looked, price continues to rise.  So be careful, but remember trading is a risk business.  Follow the trend, but don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go). 

Ed

Daily trade ideas have been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

New Records

The NASDAQ soars to new record highs, as does the number of coronavirus infections across the country.  As business once again close and state rollback reopening plans, the market appears to have no concerns whatsoever, pointing to a substantial gap ahead of the holiday shutdown.  Bad news has become good news, and the good news is now seen as excellent news, and no price is apparently too high for the bulls.  Today is all about the jobs, then expect volume to drop off quickly as we head into an early market close for the holiday.

Asian markets closed higher across the board even as hundreds of protesters were arrested in Hong Kong under the new security laws.  European markets trade sharply higher this morning boosted by vaccine hopes with banks up as much as 4%.  Ahead of employment data and jobless claims, the US Future point a gap open even as virus numbers surge to a new daily record high.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Thursday earnings calendar, we have just seven companies reporting results.  The only somewhat notable report is that from KFY.

News and Technical’s

As we hit a new daily record high of coronavirus infections and states rollback reopening plans, the US Futures point to new record highs.  California has once again closed all indoor operations for about 70% of the States population due to rising numbers.  New York has also announced to rollbacks, and Apple said it would close 30 more stores across the country in response.  Congress extended the paycheck protection program, and it looks as if Congress is moving forward with another round of direct payments to taxpayers that could be as much as $6000 per household.  With MSFT and AMZN leading the way, the QQQ set new record highs yesterday with the DIA and IWM closing the day slightly lower. 

Today we get both the Employment Situation number and the weekly Jobless Claims.  If the consensus estimates are correct, the rehiring last month is likely a new record since the numbers have been tracked all the way back to 1939.  Looking at the market, the millions that remain unemployed and the current round of further state shutdowns don’t seem to matter.  Bad news is good news, and good news is excellent news as there appears to be no price too high as stocks continue this historic rally.  One has to wonder if the upcoming earnings can support current market prices.  Only time will tell.  Keep in mind that we have an early market close today, and volume is likely to fall off quickly after the morning reports as traders head out for the 3-day weekend.  Have a safe and fantastic 4th of July, everyone!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Vaccine Hope Rallies the Bulls

A leaked (but not peer-reviewed) study from PFE showed they have a drug that may artificially create virus antibodies.  This certainly helped market sentiment.  Regardless, the bulls reversed overnight profit-taking and gapped markets up slightly.  The rest of the day was rollercoaster ride sideways.  At the close, the QQQ did back off of all-time high resistance but still ended at a new all-time high close.  Both of the large-cap indices fared worse, leaving high wicks.  Still, SPY closed up 0.72%, DIA down 0.20%, and QQQ up 1.17%.  The VXX fell to 32.90 and T2122 climbed to 74.60.  10-year bond yields climbed to 0.674% and Oil (WTI) rose to $39.71/barrel.  

During the day, the President told Fox News that he supports another round of direct payments to Americans.  He went on to say he even wants to give out more money than Democrats (proposed back in May), but he wants it done properly.  This reverses his “dead on arrival” statements about the Democratic plan.  The move may be a political maneuver or may signal a change in his view of virus impact.  Either way, the idea of more money in the hands of Americans can’t help but be bullish for stocks.

The main story is still the virus.  More states rolled-back reopening measures such as indoor dining/bars (CA, NY, MI).  In PA, Governor Wolf also announced an order to require the wearing of masks state-wide. OR Governor Brown ordered the same thing for her state.  However, while President Trump said “he’s all for masks” he doesn’t feel we need a national mandate and still thinks the virus will just disappear someday. 

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

In the US, the numbers show we’ve now had 2,780,152 confirmed cases and 130,798 deaths.  This includes another record day nationally, with over 50,200 new cases confirmed across the country.  TX and NC were among the states that reported a record increase in cases on the day.  In CA, Governor Newsom ordered the reclosure of all indoor activities (including businesses) in the state’s 19 most-affected (and populated) counties.  At a national business level, MCD has paused their reopening for at least 21 days and AAPL closed 30 more stores (77 total now) in the hardest-hit areas.

Globally, the number of cases has reached 10,834,159 confirmed cases and 519,582 deaths.  The W.H.O. said even some countries who had success controlling the virus may well need to reinstitute lockdowns.  In Tokyo, the new outbreak continues as the city reported 100 new cases (still very manageable, but growing and they are considering reinstituting quarantine measures).  In Australia, a scandal has hit as they have now traced the source of the new Melbourne outbreak. It seems hotel staff repeated had sex with different guests while the hotel was under quarantine…which if you have to get the disease certainly isn’t the worst way to contract it.

Overnight, the PFE vaccine news buoyed markets across the globe.  In Asia, markets were strongly green (with the odd exception of Japan, which just eked out a positive close).  In Europe, the same is true, with 1% or more gains across the major bourses. As of 7:30 am, US markets are looking toward the same type of day with futures now pointing to a gap higher of between 0.50% (QQQ) to 1.08% (DIA).

The major economic news for Thursday includes Jun Avg. Hourly Earnings, Import, Exports, Trade Balance, Weekly Jobless Claims, Jun Nonfarm Payrolls, and Jun Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am).  There are no major earnings reports on the day.

Just in case you missed it, today is virtual Friday ahead of a 3-day weekend.  So be sure to pay yourself and lock-in some profits ahead of a long news cycle.  The bulls have been running the last 3 days and the downtrend is broken.  However, only the QQQ can technically be said to be in an uptrend.  So be careful getting too far out on the bullish limb.  As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).  And have a safe and enjoyable long weekend.

Ed

Daily trade ideas have been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Biggest rally since 1987

After a late-day surge, the market closed inking the most robust quarterly rally since 1987 fuled by trillion upon trillion of stimulus and historic central bank operations.  However, immediately after the cash close, the futures began selling off and now point to a substantial gap down at the open, taking back most of yesterday’s rally.  With a long weekend beckoning traders to extend vacations, look for volumes to decline over the next couple days after the morning reaction to earnings and economic news.

Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher after June manufacturing activity beat expectations.  European markets are decidedly bearish this morning with indexes declining by as much a 1.50%.  US Futures point to a gap down open ahead of a big morning of economic data and worries of rising virus infections weigh on the market.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the 1st day of the 3rd quarter, we have 13 companies stepping up to report quarterly results.  Notable reports include M, STZ, CPRI, & GIS.

News and Technicals

The last day of the 2nd quarter spent most of the morning session chopping in a narrow range, but in the afternoon, the bulls seized control, pushing the index up into the close.  Thanks to the trillion upon trillion in central bank operations and governmental stimulus, we had the most robust quarterly rally since 1987.  Interestingly enough, as the market surged higher into the close, the Absolute Breadth Index declined, and the VIX held above a 30 handle.  Gold and silver also sharply rallied often considered a safe-haven trade.  During testimony to congress, Dr. Fauci, the White-House health advisor, said the coronavirus outbreak is going to be very deturbing and may top 100,000 new cases per day.  Yesterday the US reported just over 46,000 new infections and more than 750 further deaths.  As the death toll approaches 130,000, Goldman Sachs called for a national mask-wearing requirement in public to save the economy.  During the night, the Senate voted to extend the small business coronavirus relief program called the Paycheck Protection Program through August 8th.  Also during the night, Hong Kong makes its first arrests just one day after China’s new so-called national security law.  The law says that any person that acts to undermine national unification faces punishment up to a lifetime in prison.

Yesterday’s rally pushed the DIA up to test its 500-day moving average, but by the close was unable to muster the energy to break above.  The SPY comfortably held above its 200-day while the IWM remained substantially below.  The DIA, SPY, and IWM are still within a short-term downtrend while the QQQ continues to dominate the market with MSFT and AAPL doing the majority of the lifting yesterday.  Immediately after the cash close yesterday, the futures began to selloff and now point to a significant gap down this morning.  With a busy economic calendar, the next 2-days and rising concerns on the impacts of the rising pandemic, anything is possible as we approach the 4th of July market shutdown.  Expect volume to begin to decline as traders take off early to extend their vacation time.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

New Quarter Long Weekend Pause?

I suppose window-dressing was the order of the day Tuesday as a flat open gave way to a more-or-less all-day rally with the exception of profit-taking the last 5 minutes.  The results were that the SPY gained 1.47%, the DIA gained 0.75%, and the QQQ gained 1.96%.  This capped the best quarter since 1998 as the rally has been strong off the March Lows. The VXX was down to 33.95 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 65.91.  Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $39.35/barrel and the 10-year bond yields gained just a touch to 0.656%. 

Last night, the Senate unexpectedly approved an extension of the PPP loan/grant program as Democrats were granted a last-minute pushback on the expiration.  Republicans had resisted even discussing additional relief until after recess (“maybe it’s not needed” grounds) until the surprise last-minute “unanimous consent” sought by Democrats was granted.  However, this move is largely symbolic, as the program was set to expire with over $130 billion in unrequested loan/grant money available.

The main story remains the virus.  In the US, the numbers show we have now had 2,727,996 confirmed cases and 130,123 deaths.  There were over 48,000 new cases on the day.  During his Senate testimony, Dr. Fauci (HHS) again sounded the alarm.  He said states probably opened too early and few followed the Task Force or CDC advice.  In particular, he noted that pushback against scientific advice is very concerning (referring to the government as well as public pushback).  He said that we now have over 40,000 new cases per day on average and he will not be surprised if we reach 100,000 new cases per day if changes aren’t made fast.

$97 for the next 100 subscribers, then $147

Globally, the number of cases has reached 10,614,353 confirmed cases and 514,622 deaths.  In Europe, the last intra-EU border was opened as Spain-Portugal crossings reopened after a 3-month shutdown.  In Australia, Melbourne has locked down again after 2 weeks of double-digit percentage increase in new cases.  The IMF reported today that Asia’s economy will shrink this year (-1.6% projected decline) for the first time in living memory.  This came as both Japan and South Korea evaluate the next steps after new clusters were found in Tokyo and Seoul.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with China and most of the smaller markets higher, but Japan South Korea and New Zealand lower.  In Europe, markets are red almost across the board.  (Greece being the lone green on the board.)  This comes despite better than expected Mfg. PMI data out of Germany.  However, it is worth noting that the DAX was also hit by a technical glitch that caused volume data to lag at the start of its session.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are all red, down from 0.45% (QQQ) to 1.00% (DIA)

The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Payroll (8:15 am), Jun Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), Jun ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  Major earnings reports include CPRI, GIS, M, SCHN, and STZ all before the open.

As we start the new quarter and ease into the long weekend ahead, it looks like markets may take a pause this morning.  We did break the downtrend yesterday but have not started a new short-term uptrend yet.  In addition, virus-related news will continue to be widespread, but Bulls have paid no notice so far.  Just don’t get too far out on the bullish limb yet.  Take some profits before the weekend, especially since it will be a long one.  As always, don’t chase, don’t predict, and don’t be greedy (take profits and move your stops as you go).

Ed

Daily trade ideas have been moved to the trading room and the Members-Only Phone App. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, don’t forget to check for upcoming earnings. Finally, remember that the stocks/ETFs we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription PlansPrivate 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service